Latest Weekly AI Portfolio Results

Weekly benchmark

Latest Result And Full Weekly History

Claude Fable 5 led the latest weekly round at 2.87%, compared with 0.47% for the S&P 500. Grok 4.3 leads the full weekly history with a CapitalBench Score of 4.7.

2026-08-21 close to 2026-08-28 close

Top model Claude Fable 5

Cumulative leader Grok 4.3

Completed weekly rounds 55

Top model return 2.87%

S&P 500 0.47%

Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +2.40 pp

CapitalBench Score 48.5 vs max possible · portfolio 2.87% · best asset 5.93%

Evidence context

Weekly Evidence Context

Generated from completed rounds, benchmark-set rules, protocols, and available baselines so every score carries its own context.

Score methodology

Weekly benchmarkMore established

Evidence levelMore establishedWeekly evidence has enough completed rounds for stronger pattern reads, while still needing ongoing live validation.

Weekly evidence55 resolved rounds / 356 model resultsCurrent threshold met at 6+ rounds

Equal-run comparison8 models on the same 11 roundsRanked models are compared only on rounds every model in the roster completed.

ProtocolPortfolio-onlyCompleted rounds use constrained multi-asset portfolios.

Score scaleOracle-relative100 means matching the hindsight best asset in the same scored window.

Baselines shownS&P 500, Cash, Oracle, AI consensus portfolioPractical references are shown beside the impossible hindsight ceiling when available.

Use this as benchmark evidence, not an investable strategy result. More resolved rounds are needed before making strong performance claims.

CapitalBench Score

Main Benchmark Scale

CapitalBench Score compares each model portfolio with the best eligible asset in hindsight for the same weekly window. Max possible is always 100.

Score calculation

Latest round

Latest Round CapitalBench Score

CapitalBench Score compares each portfolio with the best eligible asset in hindsight for this exact weekly window. Max possible is 100.

Max possible S&P 500 Model portfolios

Max possible IGV · score 100

100.0 5.93%

S&P 500 Benchmark reference

8.0 0.47%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

48.5 2.87%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

41.8 2.48%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

41.8 2.48%

Grok 4.6 xAI

41.8 2.48%

Grok 4.3 xAI

9.6 0.57%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

5.8 0.34%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-1.3 -0.08%

Weekly track context

Cumulative Weekly Results

Models have beaten the S&P 500 in 34/55 completed weekly rounds and 173/356 model-round observations. At least one model beat the S&P 500 in the latest completed weekly round.

Open full weekly history

Completed rounds 55

Full-history leader Grok 4.3 4.7 score

S&P 500 score 2.5

Avg model return 0.09%

Avg vs S&P -0.17 pp

Model beat observations 173/356

Weekly history trend

CapitalBench Score By Completed Weekly Round

Max possible is fixed at 100. The chart compares S&P 500, the top model, and the average model score in each completed weekly round.

Max possible Top model Average model S&P 500

Investor readout

What This Weekly Round Shows

This section summarizes the benchmark-relative result, model crowding, and the hindsight asset that set the maximum possible return for the round.

Benchmark result Claude Fable 5 +2.40 pp

Top model return 2.87% vs S&P 500 0.47%.

Model average 1.59%

Average model portfolio finished +1.12 pp versus S&P 500.

Most crowded model exposures

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 30% avg Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 28.6% avg Software (IGV) 17.9% avg Ethereum ETF (ETHA) 5% avg

What worked in hindsight

Software (IGV) 5.93% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 3.91% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 3.45%

What hurt the model portfolios

Aerospace and Defense (ITA) -1.90% Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) -2.60% Semiconductors (SMH) -1.30%

Official weekly result history

Browse Weekly Official Results

Move backward or forward through completed weekly rounds without leaving the weekly results page.

Weekly result1 of 55

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 28

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Opus 5

Grok 4.6

Grok 4.3

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.5

S&P 500

IGV Software

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

2.87%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

2.48%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

2.48%

Grok 4.6 xAI

2.48%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.57%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.34%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-0.08%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.47%

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

5.93%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Software (IGV) 35% Defense (ITA) 30%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Defense (ITA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Defense (ITA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Grok 4.6 xAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Defense (ITA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Ethereum ETF (ETHA) 35% Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Defense (ITA) 30%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Defense (ITA) 35% Robotics (ARKQ) 30%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

100% Software (IGV) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 28

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-21-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 28WindowAug 21 to Aug 28Models7Asset choices70LeaderClaude Fable 5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 26

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Opus 5

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.6

Grok 4.3

S&P 500

ETHA Ethereum ETF

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

2.35%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.30%

Grok 4.5 xAI

1.14%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.91%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.45%

Grok 4.6 xAI

-0.04%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-0.39%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.39%

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

17.44%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Metals and Mining (XME) 35% Copper (CPER) 35% Silver (SLV) 30%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Metals and Mining (XME) 35% Silver (SLV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 30%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Metals and Mining (XME) 35% Materials (XLB) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 30%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Materials (XLB) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Metals and Mining (XME) 30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Solar (TAN) 35% Metals and Mining (XME) 35% Materials (XLB) 30%

Grok 4.6 xAI

Materials (XLB) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 26

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-19-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 26WindowAug 19 to Aug 26Models7Asset choices70LeaderClaude Opus 5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 25

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Opus 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.5

Grok 4.6

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

ETHA Ethereum ETF

Grok 4.3 xAI

2.93%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.59%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.59%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.59%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.20%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-1.43%

Grok 4.6 xAI

-1.43%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-1.71%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.20%

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

28.81%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

China (MCHI) 35% South Africa (EZA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Software (IGV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% South Africa (EZA) 30%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Software (IGV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% South Africa (EZA) 30%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Software (IGV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% South Africa (EZA) 30%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Grok 4.5 xAI

China (MCHI) 35% Software (IGV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 30%

Grok 4.6 xAI

China (MCHI) 35% Software (IGV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Software (IGV) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% China (MCHI) 30%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 25

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-18-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 25WindowAug 18 to Aug 25Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 24

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Opus 5

Grok 4.3

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Grok 4.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.6

S&P 500

ETHA Ethereum ETF

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

3.03%

Grok 4.3 xAI

2.67%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

2.43%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

2.14%

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.05%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

1.86%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-1.19%

Grok 4.6 xAI

-1.19%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-1.19%

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

29.58%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Australia (EWA) 35% Mexico (EWW) 35% South Africa (EZA) 30%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Australia (EWA) 35% United Kingdom (EWU) 35% South Africa (EZA) 30%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

South Africa (EZA) 35% China (MCHI) 35% Mexico (EWW) 30%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Australia (EWA) 35% South Africa (EZA) 35% China (MCHI) 30%

Grok 4.5 xAI

South Africa (EZA) 35% China (MCHI) 35% Australia (EWA) 30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

South Africa (EZA) 35% Australia (EWA) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Grok 4.6 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 24

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-15-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 24WindowAug 17 to Aug 24Models8Asset choices70LeaderClaude Opus 5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 20

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.5

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

GPT-5.6 Sol

Grok 4.6

Claude Opus 5

S&P 500

ETHA Ethereum ETF

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

3.39%

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.89%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.63%

Grok 4.3 xAI

1.47%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

1.37%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

1.21%

Grok 4.6 xAI

1.02%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.27%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-1.96%

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

23.33%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Energy (XLE) 50% Healthcare (XLV) 50%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Energy (XLE) 35% Healthcare (XLV) 30% Gold (IAU) 20% Copper (CPER) 15%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Gold (IAU) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Dividend (SCHD) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Value (IWD) 40% Healthcare (XLV) 35% Gold (IAU) 25%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 35% Gold (IAU) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 35%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Dividend (SCHD) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 30% Software (IGV) 20% Gold (IAU) 25%

Grok 4.6 xAI

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Japan (EWJ) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% Gold (IAU) 15%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 25% Europe (VGK) 20% Gold (IAU) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 20

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-13-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 20WindowAug 13 to Aug 20Models8Asset choices70LeaderGemini 3.1 ProHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 18

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.6 Sol

Grok 4.5

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

Claude Opus 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.3

S&P 500

XLE Energy Sector

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

2.77%

Grok 4.5 xAI

1.75%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.31%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

1.26%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

1.17%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.97%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.91%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.81%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.40%

XLE Energy Sector - Hindsight best asset

4.51%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 50% Healthcare (XLV) 50%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Energy (XLE) 35% Healthcare (XLV) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 35%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Gold (IAU) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 25%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 25%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Gold (IAU) 20% United Kingdom (EWU) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Gold (IAU) 25% S&P 500 (SPY) 25% Energy (XLE) 20%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 50% Gold (IAU) 50%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Energy (XLE) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Materials (XLB) 10%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

XLE Energy Sector - Hindsight best asset

100% Energy Sector (XLE) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 18

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-11-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 18WindowAug 11 to Aug 18Models8Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.6 SolHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 17

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.5

Claude Opus 5

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

1.37%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.07%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.92%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.86%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.39%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.33%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.05%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-0.05%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.05%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

13.47%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 40% United Kingdom (EWU) 35% Low Vol (SPLV) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Gold (IAU) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% United Kingdom (EWU) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 25%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Gold (IAU) 25% Metals and Mining (XME) 20% United Kingdom (EWU) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Gold (IAU) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Value (IWD) 15%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Gold (IAU) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Technology (XLK) 20%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Gold (IAU) 20% Japan (EWJ) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Gold (IAU) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 25%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Gold (IAU) 50% Healthcare (XLV) 50%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 17

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-09-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 17WindowAug 10 to Aug 17Models8Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.6 SolHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 14

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Grok 4.5

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

4.02%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

3.97%

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.60%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.83%

Grok 4.3 xAI

1.73%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.81%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.61%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.40%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.40%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

8.22%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 30% Crude Oil (USO) 20% Metals and Mining (XME) 15% Financials (XLF) 20% United Kingdom (EWU) 15%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 50% Financials (XLF) 30% United Kingdom (EWU) 20%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Technology (XLK) 30% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% Gold (IAU) 25% Energy (XLE) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Gold (IAU) 20% United Kingdom (EWU) 15% Financials (XLF) 15%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Financials (XLF) 20% Energy (XLE) 20% United Kingdom (EWU) 20%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Financials (XLF) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10% Gold (IAU) 10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Technology (XLK) 25% Growth (IWF) 25%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 14

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-07-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 14WindowAug 7 to Aug 14Models8Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 12

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Opus 5

GPT-5.5

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.3

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.93%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

2.54%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

1.42%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

1.40%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.68%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.35%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.35%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.35%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

10.81%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.5 xAI

Technology (XLK) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Gold (IAU) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% Value (IWD) 10%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Dividend (SCHD) 30% Energy (XLE) 30% Real Estate (XLRE) 20% Software (IGV) 20%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Gold (IAU) 20% Financials (XLF) 20%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 25% Real Estate (XLRE) 25% Software (IGV) 25% China (MCHI) 15% Financials (XLF) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 35% Dividend (SCHD) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Staples (XLP) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Technology (XLK) 25% Growth (IWF) 25%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 12

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-05-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 12WindowAug 5 to Aug 12Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 11

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

2.92%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.97%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.97%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.94%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.54%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-0.01%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-0.10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.33%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.10%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

10.22%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Software (IGV) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 25% Crude Oil (USO) 20% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) 15% Japanese Yen (FXY) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Software (IGV) 30% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20% Copper (CPER) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Dividend (SCHD) 30% Real Estate (XLRE) 20% Energy (XLE) 25% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Low Vol (SPLV) 10% Gold (IAU) 10%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 45% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Staples (XLP) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% T-Bills (BIL) 50%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Technology (XLK) 30% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 11

Audit ID: CB-2026-08-04-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 11WindowAug 4 to Aug 11Models8Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 7

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.5

Claude Opus 5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.6 Sol

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

XME Metals and Mining

Grok 4.3 xAI

3.51%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

2.66%

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.23%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

1.54%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

1.40%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.91%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

-0.49%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-2.40%

S&P 500 Benchmark

3.51%

XME Metals and Mining - Hindsight best asset

14.99%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% China (MCHI) 25% Europe (VGK) 25%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Software (IGV) 30% China (MCHI) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Copper (CPER) 20%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Energy (XLE) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Europe (VGK) 20%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Crude Oil (USO) 25% Gold (IAU) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Discretionary (XLY) 30% China (MCHI) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Value (IWD) 20%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 30% China (MCHI) 25% United Kingdom (EWU) 25% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 20%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 20% China (MCHI) 15% Value (IWD) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

XME Metals and Mining - Hindsight best asset

100% Metals and Mining (XME) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 7

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-31-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 7WindowJul 31 to Aug 7Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 6

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 5

Grok 4.3

Grok 4.5

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

S&P 500

EWT Taiwan Equities

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

3.53%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

2.40%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

2.31%

Grok 4.3 xAI

2.24%

Grok 4.5 xAI

1.81%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.71%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

1.27%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.67%

S&P 500 Benchmark

3.62%

EWT Taiwan Equities - Hindsight best asset

8.49%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Technology (XLK) 25% Financials (XLF) 25%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Europe (VGK) 25% Financials (XLF) 25%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Financials (XLF) 20% Europe (VGK) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 10% Gold (IAU) 10%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Value (IWD) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Europe (VGK) 15% Energy (XLE) 5%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Software (IGV) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Europe (VGK) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 15%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Value (IWD) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Europe (VGK) 20% Gold (IAU) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Value (IWD) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Europe (VGK) 20% Australia (EWA) 15% High Yield (HYG) 20%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Financials (XLF) 30% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 25% China (MCHI) 25% Japanese Yen (FXY) 20%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWT Taiwan Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% Taiwan Equities (EWT) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 6

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-30-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 6WindowJul 30 to Aug 6Models8Asset choices70LeaderGemini 3.1 ProHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 5

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Opus 5

GPT-5.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.5

Grok 4.3

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

1.57%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

1.46%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.92%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.81%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.79%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.49%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.18%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-1.79%

S&P 500 Benchmark

5.53%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

17.29%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 30% Dividend (SCHD) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Energy (XLE) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 25% Copper (CPER) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Value (IWD) 35% Healthcare (XLV) 30% Staples (XLP) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Energy (XLE) 30% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 20% Brazil (EWZ) 20% Gold (IAU) 15% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Value (IWD) 25% Dividend (SCHD) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Value (IWD) 30% Staples (XLP) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Energy (XLE) 15% Gold (IAU) 15%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Dividend (SCHD) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% China (MCHI) 20%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Staples (XLP) 50% Healthcare (XLV) 50%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 5

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-29-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 5WindowJul 29 to Aug 5Models8Asset choices70LeaderClaude Opus 5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 4

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Opus 5

Grok 4.5

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

Grok 4.3 xAI

1.49%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.89%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.58%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.27%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-0.29%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.35%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-2.51%

S&P 500 Benchmark

4.11%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

13.00%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Value (IWD) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Financials (XLF) 30% China (MCHI) 25% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 25% High Yield (HYG) 20%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% United Kingdom (EWU) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Energy (XLE) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Value (IWD) 25% Financials (XLF) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 25%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% United Kingdom (EWU) 20%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 35% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 35% Healthcare (XLV) 30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Staples (XLP) 50% Healthcare (XLV) 50%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 4

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-28-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 4WindowJul 28 to Aug 4Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Aug 3

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.6 Sol

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 5

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

IGV Software

Grok 4.3 xAI

1.40%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

1.31%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

1.07%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.55%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.41%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.27%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.25%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.11%

S&P 500 Benchmark

2.51%

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

7.16%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Value (IWD) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Industrials (XLI) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Dividend (SCHD) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Defense (ITA) 25% Financials (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 20%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Industrials (XLI) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Dividend (SCHD) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Gold (IAU) 15% Dividend (SCHD) 15%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Staples (XLP) 20%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

100% Software (IGV) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Aug 3

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-27-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredAug 3WindowJul 27 to Aug 3Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 31

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.6 Sol

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 5

Grok 4.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

IGV Software

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

1.79%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.64%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

0.58%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.20%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.18%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.05%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.34%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-0.51%

S&P 500 Benchmark

1.10%

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

7.50%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Comms (XLC) 25% Software (IGV) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 15%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Energy (XLE) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 35% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Energy (XLE) 20%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Energy (XLE) 30% Defense (ITA) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Value (IWD) 20%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Industrials (XLI) 35% Financials (XLF) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 35%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Utilities (XLU) 25% Financials (XLF) 25% Comms (XLC) 25% Value (IWD) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 25% Value (IWD) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Utilities (XLU) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Energy (XLE) 20% Utilities (XLU) 20%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

100% Software (IGV) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 31

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-24-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 31WindowJul 24 to Jul 31Models8Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.6 SolHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 30

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

Grok 4.5

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

IGV Software

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.39%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-0.02%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

-0.12%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-0.32%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.32%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.52%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-1.83%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.48%

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

7.13%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

Energy (XLE) 40% Financials (XLF) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Defense (ITA) 20%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 30% Commodities (PDBC) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 30% Defense (ITA) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% US Dollar (UUP) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Energy (XLE) 30% Defense (ITA) 25% Financials (XLF) 25% Commodities (PDBC) 20%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Commodities (PDBC) 20% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Value (IWD) 15% Gold (IAU) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Utilities (XLU) 25% S&P 500 (SPY) 20%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Gold (IAU) 25% S&P 500 (SPY) 25%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

IGV Software - Hindsight best asset

100% Software (IGV) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 30

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-23-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 30WindowJul 23 to Jul 30Models7Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 29

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.6 Sol

GPT-5.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.3

Grok 4.5

S&P 500

XLV Healthcare Sector

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.29%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.05%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-0.32%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.39%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.45%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-0.70%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-0.78%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-2.40%

XLV Healthcare Sector - Hindsight best asset

4.27%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Comms (XLC) 50% Financials (XLF) 30% Energy (XLE) 20%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Comms (XLC) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Commodities (PDBC) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Energy (XLE) 50% Comms (XLC) 50%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Dividend (SCHD) 30%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Comms (XLC) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Commodities (PDBC) 15% Low Vol (SPLV) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Energy (XLE) 20% Comms (XLC) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Commodities (PDBC) 20% Comms (XLC) 15% Financials (XLF) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

XLV Healthcare Sector - Hindsight best asset

100% Healthcare Sector (XLV) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 29

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-22-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 29WindowJul 22 to Jul 29Models7Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.6 SolHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 28

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

ITA Aerospace and Defense

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.92%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.61%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.08%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-0.99%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-2.50%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-2.58%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-3.97%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.99%

ITA Aerospace and Defense - Hindsight best asset

6.63%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 25% Financials (XLF) 20%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Commodities (PDBC) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 25%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Financials (XLF) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 40%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 100%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Commodities (PDBC) 20% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20% Financials (XLF) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20% Brazil (EWZ) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 50% Gold (IAU) 50%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ITA Aerospace and Defense - Hindsight best asset

100% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 28

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-21-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 28WindowJul 21 to Jul 28Models7Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.6 SolHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 27

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.7

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.3

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.5

GPT-5.6 Sol

S&P 500

ITA Aerospace and Defense

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.84%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.57%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.52%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.46%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.40%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.35%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.28%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

-1.05%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.40%

ITA Aerospace and Defense - Hindsight best asset

6.39%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Crude Oil (USO) 20% Staples (XLP) 20% Dividend (SCHD) 30%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Energy (XLE) 25% Real Estate (XLRE) 20% Dividend (SCHD) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Small Value (IWN) 30% Gold (IAU) 20%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Real Estate (XLRE) 15% Financials (XLF) 15%

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Energy (XLE) 20% Staples (XLP) 20% Financials (XLF) 20%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Commodities (PDBC) 20% China (MCHI) 15% Dividend (SCHD) 15%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Commodities (PDBC) 20% China (MCHI) 15% Dividend (SCHD) 15%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Comms (XLC) 50% Energy (XLE) 50%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ITA Aerospace and Defense - Hindsight best asset

100% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 27

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-20-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 27WindowJul 20 to Jul 27Models8Asset choices70LeaderClaude Fable 5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 24

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.5

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.7

GPT-5.6 Sol

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

2.78%

Grok 4.3 xAI

1.36%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

1.17%

Grok 4.5 xAI

0.95%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.85%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.80%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.60%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

0.47%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.59%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

10.27%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 25% Energy (XLE) 25% Regional Banks (KRE) 25% Staples (XLP) 25%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Energy (XLE) 50% Staples (XLP) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Dividend (SCHD) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 25%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Energy (XLE) 25% Dividend (SCHD) 25% Regional Banks (KRE) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Small Value (IWN) 15%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Regional Banks (KRE) 25% Real Estate (XLRE) 25% Dividend (SCHD) 20% Energy (XLE) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 15%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Value (IWD) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Energy (XLE) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 35% Regional Banks (KRE) 15% Staples (XLP) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 35%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Dividend (SCHD) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 20% Treasury (IEF) 20%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 24

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-17-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 24WindowJul 17 to Jul 24Models8Asset choices70LeaderGemini 3.1 ProHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 22

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 4.7

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Grok 4.3 xAI

6.63%

Grok 4.5 xAI

4.73%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

4.56%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

4.39%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

4.32%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

3.05%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

1.79%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.28%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.98%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

8.49%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

Energy (XLE) 50% Crude Oil (USO) 50%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 25% Financials (XLF) 15% Commodities (PDBC) 10% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 45% Energy (XLE) 20% Semiconductors (SMH) 15% Financials (XLF) 10% Regional Banks (KRE) 10%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 30% Defense (ITA) 15% Semiconductors (SMH) 15%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 25% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% Financials (XLF) 15%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Crude Oil (USO) 15% Financials (XLF) 25% Commodities (PDBC) 15% Value (IWD) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% S&P 500 (SPY) 25% Regional Banks (KRE) 10% Crude Oil (USO) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15% Defense (ITA) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 22

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-15-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 22WindowJul 15 to Jul 22Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 21

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Gemini 3.1 Pro

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.7

GPT-5.6 Sol

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Grok 4.3 xAI

3.59%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

3.28%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

2.51%

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.50%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

1.76%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

0.57%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-0.06%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

-0.54%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.47%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

7.22%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

Energy (XLE) 40% Crude Oil (USO) 35% Financials (XLF) 25%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 30% Financials (XLF) 15% Semiconductors (SMH) 15%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 35% Energy (XLE) 25% Semiconductors (SMH) 25% Financials (XLF) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 35% Energy (XLE) 25% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% Technology (XLK) 10% Financials (XLF) 10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Crude Oil (USO) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Semiconductors (SMH) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Commodities (PDBC) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 35% Financials (XLF) 30% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10% T-Bills (BIL) 5%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Energy (XLE) 35% Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Financials (XLF) 20% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 21

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-14-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 21WindowJul 14 to Jul 21Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 20

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Opus 4.7

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.8

S&P 500

ETHA Ethereum ETF

Grok 4.3 xAI

6.55%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

4.75%

Grok 4.5 xAI

3.67%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

3.42%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

3.09%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

1.75%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.67%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.04%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.95%

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

7.18%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 100%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 65% Energy (XLE) 25% US Dollar (UUP) 10%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 30% Commodities (PDBC) 15% Financials (XLF) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 50% Energy (XLE) 30% Defense (ITA) 20%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 25% US Dollar (UUP) 15% Financials (XLF) 10% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 35% Crude Oil (USO) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Low Vol (SPLV) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 35% Crude Oil (USO) 15% Low Vol (SPLV) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 25% US Dollar (UUP) 10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Energy (XLE) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% US Dollar (UUP) 15% Utilities (XLU) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 20

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-13-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 20WindowJul 13 to Jul 20Models8Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 17

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Opus 4.7

Claude Opus 4.8

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.6 Sol

Claude Fable 5

Grok 4.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-4.50%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-4.59%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-5.16%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

-5.36%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-5.55%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-6.01%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-8.03%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-8.22%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-1.54%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

14.04%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Taiwan (EWT) 20% Financials (XLF) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Taiwan (EWT) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 20% Industrials (XLI) 10%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 50% Technology (XLK) 30% Energy (XLE) 20%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 45% Taiwan (EWT) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 10% Energy (XLE) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Technology (XLK) 20% Taiwan (EWT) 15% Financials (XLF) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Technology (XLK) 25% Taiwan (EWT) 15% Financials (XLF) 15% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 10%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Technology (XLK) 30% Taiwan (EWT) 20% South Korea (EWY) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 55% Taiwan (EWT) 20% South Korea (EWY) 10% Technology (XLK) 10% Financials (XLF) 5%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 17

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-10-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 17WindowJul 10 to Jul 17Models8Asset choices70LeaderClaude Opus 4.7HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 16

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Opus 4.8

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.7

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.3

Grok 4.5

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-2.14%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-3.17%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-3.46%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-3.81%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-3.90%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-4.53%

Grok 4.5 xAI

-5.01%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.13%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

9.44%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Technology (XLK) 30% Financials (XLF) 30%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% Taiwan (EWT) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Energy (XLE) 15% Gold (IAU) 15%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Taiwan (EWT) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 15% Crude Oil (USO) 10% Biotechnology (XBI) 10%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Technology (XLK) 50% Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% Technology (XLK) 10%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 16

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-09-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 16WindowJul 9 to Jul 16Models7Asset choices70LeaderClaude Opus 4.8HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 15

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.5

GPT-5.5

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 4.7

Claude Fable 5

S&P 500

ETHA Ethereum ETF

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

4.62%

Grok 4.5 xAI

2.55%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

1.44%

Grok 4.3 xAI

1.04%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.39%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.20%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.17%

S&P 500 Benchmark

1.26%

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

10.76%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Crude Oil (USO) 40% Energy (XLE) 30% Financials (XLF) 30%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy (XLE) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Financials (XLF) 15% Value (IWD) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 30% Energy (XLE) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 25% Semiconductors (SMH) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 10%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Energy (XLE) 40% Financials (XLF) 35% Healthcare (XLV) 25%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Utilities (XLU) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 15%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Low Vol (SPLV) 15% Utilities (XLU) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 25% Energy (XLE) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% Value (IWD) 20%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

ETHA Ethereum ETF - Hindsight best asset

100% Ethereum ETF (ETHA) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 15

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-08-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 15WindowJul 8 to Jul 15Models7Asset choices70LeaderGemini 3.1 ProHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 14

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.3

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 4.7

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

4.23%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

3.67%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.92%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.73%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-1.20%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-1.33%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.55%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

10.33%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Crude Oil (USO) 35% Energy (XLE) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 10% Agriculture Commodities (DBA) 10%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Energy (XLE) 40% Crude Oil (USO) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 30%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Value (IWD) 40% Financials (XLF) 35% Energy (XLE) 25%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 25% Value (IWD) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Energy (XLE) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 15%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Value (IWD) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Gold (IAU) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 14

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-07-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 14WindowJul 7 to Jul 14Models6Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 13

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.7

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Fable 5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Grok 4.3 xAI

-1.64%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-1.66%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-2.07%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-2.56%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

-3.73%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-3.92%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.28%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

12.88%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Financials (XLF) 20% Technology (XLK) 20% Defense (ITA) 20%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 30% Industrials (XLI) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% Healthcare (XLV) 15% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 20%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 30% Industrials (XLI) 25% Defense (ITA) 20% Healthcare (XLV) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Financials (XLF) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Defense (ITA) 20% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% Value (IWD) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Robotics (ARKQ) 20% AI Tech (AIQ) 20% Technology (XLK) 20%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Taiwan (EWT) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 13

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-06-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 13WindowJul 6 to Jul 13Models6Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 9

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 4.7

Grok 4.3

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.16%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.14%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-0.23%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-0.67%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-0.74%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-1.50%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.93%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

4.84%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% T-Bills (BIL) 20%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 20% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 15%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Biotechnology (XBI) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Financials (XLF) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% Low Vol (SPLV) 10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Value (IWD) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Healthcare (XLV) 40% Staples (XLP) 30% Low Vol (SPLV) 30%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 9

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-02-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 9WindowJul 2 to Jul 9Models6Asset choices70LeaderGemini 3.1 ProHorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jul 8

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.7

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

USO Crude Oil

Grok 4.3 xAI

2.16%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

1.35%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.80%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.52%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.40%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

-0.17%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-0.05%

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

8.66%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

Healthcare (XLV) 50% Biotechnology (XBI) 30% Financials (XLF) 20%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Financials (XLF) 20% Value (IWD) 20% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 20% Industrials (XLI) 20% Biotechnology (XBI) 15% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 15%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Healthcare (XLV) 30% T-Bills (BIL) 30%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Financials (XLF) 25% Industrials (XLI) 20% Low Vol (SPLV) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Regional Banks (KRE) 30% Biotechnology (XBI) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Industrials (XLI) 15% Small Value (IWN) 10%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

USO Crude Oil - Hindsight best asset

100% Crude Oil (USO) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jul 8

Audit ID: CB-2026-07-01-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJul 8WindowJul 1 to Jul 8Models6Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jun 18

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

GPT-5.5

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Fable 5

Claude Opus 4.7

Grok 4.3

Gemini 3.1 Pro

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

6.73%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

4.54%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

4.03%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

3.68%

Grok 4.3 xAI

3.67%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

1.09%

S&P 500 Benchmark

0.67%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

11.02%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Semiconductors (SMH) 40% South Korea (EWY) 25% Taiwan (EWT) 15% Momentum (MTUM) 10% Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) 10%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Momentum (MTUM) 25% Small Cap (IWM) 20% Taiwan (EWT) 15% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 10%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 25% South Korea (EWY) 15% Momentum (MTUM) 20% Small Value (IWN) 20% Gold (IAU) 20%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Small Cap (IWM) 20% Momentum (MTUM) 20% Regional Banks (KRE) 15% Taiwan (EWT) 10%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Momentum (MTUM) 40% Small Cap (IWM) 35% Semiconductors (SMH) 25%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 30% T-Bills (BIL) 30%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jun 18

Audit ID: CB-2026-06-13-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJun 18WindowJun 12 to Jun 18Models6Asset choices70LeaderGPT-5.5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jun 18

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Claude Fable 5

GPT-5.5

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Grok 4.3

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 4.7

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

2.60%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

1.82%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

1.45%

Grok 4.3 xAI

-1.16%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

-1.24%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

-1.32%

S&P 500 Benchmark

1.22%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

10.18%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 25% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% Small Value (IWN) 15% Momentum (MTUM) 20% Energy (XLE) 20%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Regional Banks (KRE) 30% Small Value (IWN) 25% Semiconductors (SMH) 25% Defense (ITA) 10% Staples (XLP) 10%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Technology (XLK) 40% Comms (XLC) 30% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Staples (XLP) 40% Low Vol (SPLV) 35% Small Value (IWN) 25%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Staples (XLP) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 25% Healthcare (XLV) 20% Defense (ITA) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 15%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Staples (XLP) 30% Healthcare (XLV) 25% Defense (ITA) 20% Regional Banks (KRE) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jun 18

Audit ID: CB-2026-06-12-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJun 18WindowJun 11 to Jun 18Models6Asset choices70LeaderClaude Fable 5HorizonWeekly

Weekly official result

Weekly result scored Jun 16

Same-window returns, ranked after final prices.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Grok 4.3

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.8

Claude Opus 4.7

GPT-5.5

Claude Fable 5

S&P 500

EWY South Korea Equities

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.79%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.46%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

0.33%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.23%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.13%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

-0.25%

S&P 500 Benchmark

1.80%

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

11.88%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Grok 4.3 xAI

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Staples (XLP) 25% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Dividend (SCHD) 15% Financials (XLF) 10%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Healthcare (XLV) 40% Low Vol (SPLV) 30% Staples (XLP) 30%

Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 35% Low Vol (SPLV) 25% Staples (XLP) 20% Dividend (SCHD) 10% T-Bills (BIL) 10%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 35% Low Vol (SPLV) 25% Staples (XLP) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 15% Real Estate (XLRE) 10%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

Healthcare (XLV) 50% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Staples (XLP) 15% Regional Banks (KRE) 10% US Dollar (UUP) 5%

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Healthcare (XLV) 30% Low Vol (SPLV) 20% Staples (XLP) 20% Energy (XLE) 15% T-Bills (BIL) 15%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

EWY South Korea Equities - Hindsight best asset

100% South Korea Equities (EWY) hindsight ceiling

Official scored round

Weekly result scored Jun 16

Audit ID: CB-2026-06-09-1W

Audit packet Track results

ScoredJun 16WindowJun 9 to Jun 16Models6Asset choices70LeaderGrok 4.3HorizonWeekly

Full weekly history

Result insights

What The Latest Weekly Result Shows

Context generated from the scored weekly round, including consensus performance, oracle comparison, and benchmark difficulty.

Consensus PerformanceAug 21-Aug 28

AI consensus portfolio scored 26.9 versus the oracle

If the weekly model allocations were averaged into one consensus portfolio, it returned +1.59% versus +0.47% for the S&P 500 and +5.93% for the hindsight best asset.

Consensus means the average of model allocations in the same round. CapitalBench Score compares that return with the hindsight-best eligible asset for that exact scoring window.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Aug 28, 2026

Consensus Portfolio Return: +1.59%
Average Model Return: +1.59%
Consensus Capitalbench Score: 26.9

Benchmark DifficultyAug 21-Aug 28

Weekly round had +10.23% asset dispersion

The best scored asset returned +5.93%, the worst returned -4.30%, and +40.00% of the universe was positive. The S&P 500 ranked 17 out of 70 options.

Asset dispersion is the gap between the best and worst eligible assets in the same round. Wider dispersion makes missed allocation choices more costly.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Aug 28, 2026

Oracle Return: +5.93%
Worst Asset Return: -4.30%
Positive Universe Share: +40.0%

Oracle ComparisonAug 21-Aug 28

Models found the weekly oracle asset

The hindsight best asset was Software (IGV) at +5.93%. 4 of 7 models held it, with +17.86% average allocation. The largest allocation came from Claude Fable 5 at +35.00%.

Oracle means the best eligible asset in hindsight for that round. Models do not know it when portfolios are frozen.

High confidenceMath: deterministicData through Aug 28, 2026

Oracle Asset Holder Count: 4
Average Oracle Asset Allocation: +17.9%

All insights

Full round Audit packet Detailed scores Portfolios

Detailed scores

Weekly Score Tables

Switch between the latest completed weekly round and cumulative weekly history. All cumulative rows are derived from resolved weekly run files.

CapitalBench Score audit

Score Formula

100 matches the maximum possible return; negative scores preserve the size of a loss.

Claude Fable 5 score 48.5 · portfolio 2.87% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV) GPT-5.6 Sol score 41.8 · portfolio 2.48% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV) Claude Opus 5 score 41.8 · portfolio 2.48% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV) Grok 4.6 score 41.8 · portfolio 2.48% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV) Grok 4.3 score 9.6 · portfolio 0.57% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV) Gemini 3.1 Pro score 5.8 · portfolio 0.34% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV) Grok 4.5 score -1.3 · portfolio -0.08% · max possible 5.93%: Software (IGV)


Claude Fable 5	Anthropic	CYBERSECURITY	3	2.87%	0.47%	+2.40 pp	3.06%
GPT-5.6 Sol	OpenAI	CYBERSECURITY	3	2.48%	0.47%	+2.01 pp	3.45%
Claude Opus 5	Anthropic	CYBERSECURITY	3	2.48%	0.47%	+2.01 pp	3.45%
Grok 4.6	xAI	CYBERSECURITY	3	2.48%	0.47%	+2.01 pp	3.45%
Grok 4.3	xAI	ETHEREUM_ETF	3	0.57%	0.47%	+0.09 pp	5.36%
Gemini 3.1 Pro	Google	SEMICONDUCTORS	3	0.34%	0.47%	-0.13 pp	5.59%
Grok 4.5	xAI	CYBERSECURITY	3	-0.08%	0.47%	-0.55 pp	6.01%

Full weekly history CapitalBench Score = total portfolio return / total max-possible return × 100.

Model	Scope	CapitalBench Score	Avg Return	Avg vs S&P	Beat S&P Weeks	Total / Max Possible
Grok 4.3 xAI	55/55 weekly rounds	4.7	0.48%	+0.22 pp	27/55	26.56% / 561.84%
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google	55/55 weekly rounds	-2.9	-0.30%	-0.56 pp	22/55	-16.48% / 561.84%
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic	17/55 weekly rounds	9.8	1.33%	+0.25 pp	11/17	22.64% / 230.69%
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI	26/55 weekly rounds	9.3	1.09%	+0.68 pp	17/26	28.23% / 302.31%
Grok 4.5 xAI	28/55 weekly rounds	6.9	0.79%	+0.37 pp	16/28	22.21% / 322.50%
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic	35/55 weekly rounds	6.5	0.72%	+0.25 pp	21/35	25.32% / 392.28%
Grok 4.6 xAI	6/55 weekly rounds	3.3	0.63%	+0.99 pp	4/6	3.76% / 115.02%
S&P 500 Benchmark	55/55 weekly rounds	2.5	0.26%	0.00 pp	Benchmark	14.29% / 561.84%
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic	50/55 weekly rounds	-1.2	-0.12%	-0.33 pp	20/50	-6.15% / 504.11%
GPT-5.5 OpenAI	49/55 weekly rounds	-2.8	-0.25%	-0.59 pp	20/49	-12.37% / 446.81%
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic	35/55 weekly rounds	-5.0	-0.45%	-0.41 pp	15/35	-15.62% / 313.11%

Portfolios behind the result

Portfolios Behind The Result

Compact allocation cards first, with the full searchable table below.

Claude Fable 5 Anthropic

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Software (IGV) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 30%

GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Claude Opus 5 Anthropic

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Grok 4.6 xAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 35% Software (IGV) 30%

Grok 4.3 xAI

Ethereum ETF (ETHA) 35% Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 30%

Grok 4.5 xAI

Cybersecurity (CIBR) 35% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 35% Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) 30%

Model	Provider	Portfolio	Confidence	Protocol
Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5	Anthropic	Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Software (IGV)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)30%	0.58	Portfolio round
GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol	OpenAI	Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Software (IGV)30%	0.58	Portfolio round
Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5	Anthropic	Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Software (IGV)30%	0.56	Portfolio round
Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6	xAI	Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Software (IGV)30%	0.56	Portfolio round
Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3	xAI	Ethereum ETF (ETHA)35%Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30%	0.60	Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro	Google	Semiconductors (SMH)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)30%	0.59	Portfolio round
Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5	xAI	Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)30%	0.59	Portfolio round

Current live weekly round CB-2026-08-30-1W Scores after the 2026-09-08 close.

View current portfolios

Latest Result And Full Weekly History

Main Benchmark Scale

Latest Round CapitalBench Score

Full-History Weekly CapitalBench Score

Cumulative Weekly Results

CapitalBench Score By Completed Weekly Round

What This Weekly Round Shows

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