Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 67.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward defensive equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +22.50%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-29 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-20260722-1w
33,774 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Communication Services Sector (XLC)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-22
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-23T04:04:25Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-23T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-22
- Exit date: 2026-07-29
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 as the one-week entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — Information Available Through July 22, 2026
Research cutoff: July 23, 2026 at 04:04:25 UTC. The weekly scoring window ends at the July 29 close; the monthly scoring window ends at the August 21 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 22 market close
- Associated Press reported the S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down less than 0.1% to 52,218.58, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6% to 25,690.90.
- Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel after trading above $95. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.65%, compared with 4.63% on July 21.
- The FTSE 100 rose 1.2% and the Hang Seng declined 1.0%.
- Super Micro Computer rose 19.8%, AT&T rose 3.5%, Philip Morris International rose 3.3%, and GE Vernova declined 8.7%.
## Company results released after the close
- Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.796 billion, up 24% from a year earlier. Google Services revenue rose 15%, Google Search and other advertising rose 17%, YouTube advertising rose 13%, and Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.768 billion.
- Alphabet operating income rose 30% to $40.770 billion and operating margin was 34%, compared with 32%. Google Cloud operating income was $8.814 billion and Other Bets had a $1.799 billion operating loss.
- Alphabet reported $97.983 billion of other income, primarily unrealized equity-security gains. Net income was $112.107 billion. The results are unaudited, and unrealized gains may vary between periods.
- Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.236 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. Automotive revenue was $20.516 billion, energy generation and storage revenue was $3.139 billion, and services and other revenue was $4.581 billion.
- Tesla's gross margin was 16.8%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier. Operating income was $398 million, operating margin was 1.4%, and GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.114 billion.
- Tesla reported $4.697 billion of operating cash flow, $5.789 billion of capital spending, negative $1.092 billion of free cash flow, and $43.524 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The results are unaudited.
## U.S. economy and energy
- BLS reported June CPI down 0.4% for the month and up 3.5% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months.
- BLS reported June final-demand PPI down 0.3% for the month and up 5.5% over 12 months. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
- June nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over 12 months. April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- Census reported advance June retail and food-services sales up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point sampling interval and was not adjusted for price changes.
- Federal Reserve data showed June industrial production up 0.1% and capacity utilization at 76.1%. BEA's third estimate showed first-quarter real GDP up at a 2.1% annual rate.
- Census reported June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from revised May; the monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 15.9 percentage-point interval.
- For the week ended July 17, EIA reported commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up 2.0 million barrels, gasoline up 0.8 million, distillates up 1.4 million, and total commercial petroleum inventories up 11.6 million.
- EIA reported refinery utilization at 96.1%. Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 1% from a year earlier. Weekly estimates are preliminary and product supplied is a demand proxy.
## Monetary policy
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 12–0 vote. Its statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the 2% goal and cited Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty and supply shocks.
- The ECB's deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates were 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% before its scheduled July 23 decision.
- The Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for July 30. The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting starts July 30, with a statement and outlook report scheduled for July 31.
## Scheduled events
- July 23: ECB policy decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET; RTX second-quarter results before the U.S. open.
- July 24: U.S. June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; Bank of England business-conditions and Decision Maker Panel publications.
- July 28: First day of the two-day FOMC meeting; Visa fiscal third-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- July 29: FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, before the weekly scoring close. Microsoft and Qualcomm results are scheduled after the weekly close.
- July 30: Advance second-quarter U.S. GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of England decision; first day of the Bank of Japan meeting.
- July 31: Bank of Japan statement and outlook report; final July University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 3 and 5: ISM July Manufacturing and Services PMIs. August 4: June U.S. trade and JOLTS.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation. August 12 and 13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 19: Minutes of the July FOMC meeting. August 21: July state employment and unemployment.
## Neutrality and data boundary
These datapoints contain no allocation instruction, option ordering, subjective commentary, or affected-choice mapping. Source URLs remain only in the audit report. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. The model input separately supplies the complete mechanical full-universe context and the complete frozen Portfolio V2.2 evidence table.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-22-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-22'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-23T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-e43c7885fb22
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-23T04:01:24.966652+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Wednesday, July 22, 2026 as the one-week entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Wednesday, July 29, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-22'
exit_date: '2026-07-29'
created_at: '2026-07-23T04:01:24.966652+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 weekly round prepared from a new July 22 close research package using direct public-source browsing. Participant tools, browsing, search, retrieval, and follow-up calls are disabled.# Market Briefing — Information Available Through July 22, 2026
Research cutoff: July 23, 2026 at 04:04:25 UTC. The weekly scoring window ends at the July 29 close; the monthly scoring window ends at the August 21 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 22 market close
- Associated Press reported the S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down less than 0.1% to 52,218.58, and the Nasdaq Composite down 0.6% to 25,690.90.
- Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel after trading above $95. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.65%, compared with 4.63% on July 21.
- The FTSE 100 rose 1.2% and the Hang Seng declined 1.0%.
- Super Micro Computer rose 19.8%, AT&T rose 3.5%, Philip Morris International rose 3.3%, and GE Vernova declined 8.7%.
## Company results released after the close
- Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.796 billion, up 24% from a year earlier. Google Services revenue rose 15%, Google Search and other advertising rose 17%, YouTube advertising rose 13%, and Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.768 billion.
- Alphabet operating income rose 30% to $40.770 billion and operating margin was 34%, compared with 32%. Google Cloud operating income was $8.814 billion and Other Bets had a $1.799 billion operating loss.
- Alphabet reported $97.983 billion of other income, primarily unrealized equity-security gains. Net income was $112.107 billion. The results are unaudited, and unrealized gains may vary between periods.
- Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.236 billion, up 26% from a year earlier. Automotive revenue was $20.516 billion, energy generation and storage revenue was $3.139 billion, and services and other revenue was $4.581 billion.
- Tesla's gross margin was 16.8%, compared with 17.2% a year earlier. Operating income was $398 million, operating margin was 1.4%, and GAAP net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.114 billion.
- Tesla reported $4.697 billion of operating cash flow, $5.789 billion of capital spending, negative $1.092 billion of free cash flow, and $43.524 billion of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments. The results are unaudited.
## U.S. economy and energy
- BLS reported June CPI down 0.4% for the month and up 3.5% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% over 12 months.
- BLS reported June final-demand PPI down 0.3% for the month and up 5.5% over 12 months. Final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% for the month and 5.1% over 12 months.
- June nonfarm payroll employment increased by 57,000, the unemployment rate was 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over 12 months. April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- Census reported advance June retail and food-services sales up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point sampling interval and was not adjusted for price changes.
- Federal Reserve data showed June industrial production up 0.1% and capacity utilization at 76.1%. BEA's third estimate showed first-quarter real GDP up at a 2.1% annual rate.
- Census reported June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from revised May; the monthly estimate carried a plus-or-minus 15.9 percentage-point interval.
- For the week ended July 17, EIA reported commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up 2.0 million barrels, gasoline up 0.8 million, distillates up 1.4 million, and total commercial petroleum inventories up 11.6 million.
- EIA reported refinery utilization at 96.1%. Four-week total product supplied averaged 20.4 million barrels per day, down 1% from a year earlier. Weekly estimates are preliminary and product supplied is a demand proxy.
## Monetary policy
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 12–0 vote. Its statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the 2% goal and cited Middle East conflict as a source of uncertainty and supply shocks.
- The ECB's deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates were 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% before its scheduled July 23 decision.
- The Bank of England policy decision and Monetary Policy Report are scheduled for July 30. The Bank of Japan's two-day meeting starts July 30, with a statement and outlook report scheduled for July 31.
## Scheduled events
- July 23: ECB policy decision at 14:15 CET and press conference at 14:45 CET; RTX second-quarter results before the U.S. open.
- July 24: U.S. June new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET; Bank of England business-conditions and Decision Maker Panel publications.
- July 28: First day of the two-day FOMC meeting; Visa fiscal third-quarter results after the U.S. close.
- July 29: FOMC statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, before the weekly scoring close. Microsoft and Qualcomm results are scheduled after the weekly close.
- July 30: Advance second-quarter U.S. GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices at 8:30 a.m. ET; Bank of England decision; first day of the Bank of Japan meeting.
- July 31: Bank of Japan statement and outlook report; final July University of Michigan sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 3 and 5: ISM July Manufacturing and Services PMIs. August 4: June U.S. trade and JOLTS.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation. August 12 and 13: July CPI and PPI.
- August 19: Minutes of the July FOMC meeting. August 21: July state employment and unemployment.
## Neutrality and data boundary
These datapoints contain no allocation instruction, option ordering, subjective commentary, or affected-choice mapping. Source URLs remain only in the audit report. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast. The model input separately supplies the complete mechanical full-universe context and the complete frozen Portfolio V2.2 evidence table.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "2ac061341e3d56caa0e669e9b1129dc481052ad0833015f07ded5a0f32844425",
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-22-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Overweight energy and commodities on the supplied oil supply-shock evidence, overweight communications on Alphabet's strong after-close results, with low-vol and SPY ballast into the July 29 FOMC.
Oil momentum and Alphabet's beat are the two strongest supplied catalysts inside the window; defensive sleeves hedge FOMC risk.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Resilient data and Alphabet beat support modest gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96 on July 22",
"June CPI -0.4% m/m but 3.5% y/y; Fed holding at 3.50%-3.75% citing elevated inflation"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises materially above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC and rising oil/yields pressure multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 at 2pm ET"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend plus post-close Alphabet beat priced into window",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet Q2 revenue +24%, Cloud +82%, operating margin 34% vs 32%",
"Sector -2.71% active over 5 days after strong +4.70% prior trend"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Alphabet trades down more than 3% on results",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "Market discounts unrealized-gain-inflated net income and sells the news",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings reaction July 23"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk and crude momentum lift energy equities",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent +3.4% to $94.07, traded above $95",
"XLE +5.76% active 5-day with positive prior trend; USO +16.85% over 21 sessions",
"Fed cited Middle East conflict as supply-shock source"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent closes below $88",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds (crude +2.0M barrels) and demand softness reverse crude",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA weekly data and geopolitical headlines through July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy-led commodity rally with volume confirmation persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC +4.71% active 5-day, +3.55% prior trend, volume z-score 3.705",
"PPI +5.5% y/y signals commodity-cost pressure"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude falls more than 5% intra-window",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Oil reversal drags the basket lower given energy weighting",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil and inflation data flow through July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues into FOMC uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPLV +2.13% active 5-day with +1.64% prior trend",
"Negative 63-day beta to SPY (-0.326) provides FOMC hedge"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally with QQQ up >2%",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Dovish surprise triggers growth rally leaving defensives behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply-shock momentum extends",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO +8.49% 5-day, +16.85% 21-day; Brent above $94",
"Commercial crude inventories rose 2.0M barrels; total petroleum +11.6M"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $88",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds and 48% volatility make sharp mean reversion likely; energy cluster cap also binds with XLE",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA report July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration relief if FOMC dovish",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year yield rose to 4.65%; TLT -2.72% over 21 sessions",
"CPI 3.5% y/y and PPI 5.5% y/y keep Fed on hold"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield falls below 4.5%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and oil spike push yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value/financials trend continues on elevated rates",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLF prior trend +3.93% but only +0.08% active 5-day",
"Low SPY beta (0.170) limits both risk and upside"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility around FOMC and weak payroll revisions weigh on banks",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"cost_usd": 0.44947,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.64,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC hawkish surprise on July 29 hits all risk assets",
"Oil price reversal on inventory builds (crude stocks rose 2.0M barrels)",
"Alphabet sells off despite headline beat given unrealized-gain-driven net income",
"Commodity inflation strength pressures equity multiples"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Alphabet shares fall on the results despite the beat",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet beat with 24% revenue growth, Cloud +82%, margin expansion; sector pulled back last week creating entry ahead of the report's price reaction inside the window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet Q2 results released after July 22 close price into July 23 open"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $88",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent +3.4% to $94 with strong recent oil momentum and 96.1% refinery utilization; energy equities lag crude's move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly EIA data July 29 and continued Middle East supply risk"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity index turns negative on the week",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Broad commodities show positive prior trend, strong 5-day active return, and unusual volume interest amid supply shocks and elevated inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Energy-led commodity strength through FOMC July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on rally in mega-cap growth",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Defensive ballast into July 29 FOMC; negative SPY beta cushions hawkish-surprise risk while retaining positive base forecast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 before exit close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC surprise triggers broad selloff",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark anchor to limit tracking error around the FOMC decision.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 statement"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.84,
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight energy and commodities on the supplied oil supply-shock evidence, overweight communications on Alphabet's strong after-close results, with low-vol and SPY ballast into the July 29 FOMC.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Oil momentum and Alphabet's beat are the two strongest supplied catalysts inside the window; defensive sleeves hedge FOMC risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.44947,
"input_tokens": 27597,
"latency_seconds": 49.03175395797007,
"output_tokens": 3470,
"total_tokens": 31067
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Balanced portfolio anchoring on SPY core while tilting toward energy strength and defensive dividend equities that showed strong recent relative returns with low volatility into an FOMC week.
Energy momentum plus defensive dividend leadership complement an SPY core into a rate-decision week.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings sustain index; benign CPI at 3.5% headline supports risk",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,498.96, down 0.1% on July 22",
"Alphabet reported 24% revenue growth and strong cloud results"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "FOMC signals additional tightening",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC July 29 or elevated PPI at 5.5% pressures multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil momentum and high refinery utilization at 96.1% support energy",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07",
"Energy active_return_5s +5.76% with negative SPY beta"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $88",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Crude inventory builds of 2.0M barrels signal softening demand",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil price moves and EIA data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive low-beta leadership persists into FOMC uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND active_return_5s +2.71%, beta 0.084",
"Shallow max drawdown -1.18%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Rate spike hits dividend equities",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally favors high-beta over defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation into FOMC week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand into FOMC",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Utilities active_return_5s +2.55%",
"Return_3s +1.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "10yr yield spikes above 4.8%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Rising 10yr yield at 4.65% pressures rate-sensitive utilities",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and rate moves"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil momentum continues on tight supply",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO return_3s +6.23%, active_return_5s +9.47%",
"Volatility 48.18% very high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude drops below $88 (capped energy cluster)",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds reverse the rally",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive factor leadership into FOMC",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"LOW_VOL active_return_5s +2.13%",
"Negative SPY beta -0.326"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on rally",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation hurts low-vol",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC week volatility"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration bid if FOMC dovish",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10yr yield 4.65% vs 4.63%",
"IEF volatility 4.60%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields break higher on hawkish Fed",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Yields rising on elevated inflation",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid into FOMC",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU return_3s +2.90%, active_return_5s +2.83%",
"Distance from 52w high -23.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rally accelerates",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength (UUP +1.69%) pressures gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and dollar moves"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.25,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC on July 29 triggers broad equity drawdown",
"Oil reverses sharply on inventory builds hurting energy sleeve"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses below $88 or crude inventories build sharply",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong active return with Brent up 3.4% and oil momentum; low beta diversifier ahead of tight energy inventories.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil price momentum and EIA inventory data before exit close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC surprise triggers equity selloff",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad exposure through FOMC week; strong Alphabet earnings support large-cap sentiment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 before weekly close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rate-driven selloff in dividend equities",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Highest recent active return (+2.71%) with very low beta and shallow drawdown; defensive tilt into FOMC.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation into FOMC uncertainty"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"portfolio_rationale": "Balanced portfolio anchoring on SPY core while tilting toward energy strength and defensive dividend equities that showed strong recent relative returns with low volatility into an FOMC week.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Energy momentum plus defensive dividend leadership complement an SPY core into a rate-decision week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27603,
"latency_seconds": 37.75730536901392,
"output_tokens": 2384,
"total_tokens": 29987
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is allocated to Energy and Communications to capitalize on strong recent momentum and positive catalysts. Energy benefits from rising crude prices, while Communications is supported by strong Alphabet earnings.
Overweight Energy and Communications based on positive catalysts and momentum.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Market continues to drift higher on mixed economic data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 down 0.1% to 7,498.96."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant market selloff.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Negative reaction to upcoming earnings or economic data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming earnings and economic data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Crude prices continue to rise, supporting energy stocks.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel.",
"EIA reported commercial crude inventories up 2.0 million barrels."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude prices reverse sharply lower.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Crude prices reverse sharply lower.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued crude inventory draws and price strength."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Market reacts positively to Alphabet earnings, lifting the sector.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue of $119.796 billion, up 24%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broader market selloff drags down the sector despite strong earnings.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "Broader market selloff drags down the sector despite strong earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Alphabet earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields continue to rise, pressuring long-duration bonds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.65%, compared with 4.63% on July 21."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields fall sharply.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Yields fall sharply on weak economic data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming economic data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold IAU return 5s 1.85%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant improvement in risk appetite.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Risk appetite improves, reducing demand for gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Changes in risk appetite."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Consumer spending remains resilient.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Tesla reported second-quarter revenue of $28.236 billion, up 26%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant weakening in consumer spending.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"reversal_case": "Consumer spending weakens.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Tesla earnings."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.85,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden reversal in crude oil prices could negatively impact the Energy allocation.",
"A broader market selloff could drag down the Communications sector despite strong earnings.",
"Macroeconomic data releases could cause volatility."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude prices reverse sharply lower.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum and positive catalyst from rising crude prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued crude inventory draws and price strength."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Broader market selloff drags down the sector despite strong earnings.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet earnings beat provides a strong catalyst for the sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Alphabet earnings."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is allocated to Energy and Communications to capitalize on strong recent momentum and positive catalysts. Energy benefits from rising crude prices, while Communications is supported by strong Alphabet earnings.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight Energy and Communications based on positive catalysts and momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17077,
"latency_seconds": 11.852693545864895,
"output_tokens": 1514,
"total_tokens": 18591
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio emphasizes candidates with near-week catalysts or cross-sectional evidence above SPY's base forecast while capping non-benchmark clusters. It balances Alphabet-related communications upside, commodity and energy momentum, financials around FOMC, and broader equal-weight breadth.
SPY's base case is modestly positive but not the strongest active forecast. Selected holdings each clear the SPY hurdle and span technology/growth, energy, commodities, financials, and diversified U.S. equity exposure.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad U.S. equities remain near highs with only a shallow 52-week-high distance and could benefit if FOMC communication is benign.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 was down 0.1% at the July 22 close.",
"SPY return was -0.98% over 5 sessions and 0.41% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY volatility_21s was 11.70% and max_drawdown_21s was -2.07%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially below its recent drawdown range or underperforms defensive and cash-like assets into the FOMC.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls, elevated inflation readings, and higher Treasury yields could weigh on broad equity risk appetite.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC statement and press conference before the scoring close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong Alphabet fundamentals can trigger sector follow-through after a pullback, with quality evidence showing both prior strength and recent reset.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet reported second-quarter revenue up 24% year over year after the close.",
"Google Cloud revenue rose 82% and Alphabet operating margin improved to 34% from 32%.",
"COMMUNICATIONS had quality evidence score 0.830, with prior active rank 0.925 and recent pullback rank 0.955."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Alphabet-led communication services fail to hold positive relative performance versus SPY after the earnings reaction.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "The sector's active_return_5s was -2.71%, and a sell-the-news reaction or growth-stock risk-off move could extend underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Alphabet's after-close second-quarter results during the scoring week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil-price strength and positive sector trend can continue over one week if supply-risk and inflation hedging remain dominant.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 per barrel after trading above $95.",
"ENERGY active_return_5s was 5.76% and prior_16s_active_return was 3.11%.",
"ENERGY quality evidence score was 0.492, with very low recent pullback rank 0.015."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses materially or the sector gives back its recent active breakout versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA reported crude, gasoline, distillate, and total commercial petroleum inventory builds, which could undercut the oil move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of crude strength after Brent rose 3.4% to $94.07 and traded above $95."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad commodity momentum and high recent volume can persist if inflation and energy-linked flows remain supportive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"BROAD_COMMODITIES active_return_5s was 4.71% and prior_16s_active_return was 3.55%.",
"Volume_zscore_5v60 was 3.705, the table's strongest positive volume signal among assessed candidates.",
"Brent crude rose 3.4%, while June CPI was down 0.4% for the month but still up 3.5% over 12 months."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Commodity prices broadly reverse or PDBC loses relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Recent strength may be extended, and inventory builds or softer global demand signals could reverse commodity prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity follow-through after crude and broad commodity strength into the entry close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior relative strength and a high evidence score can continue if yields remain firm and FOMC messaging does not pressure bank and capital-market sentiment.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS quality evidence score was 0.787, with prior active rank 0.896 and pullback rank 0.731.",
"FINANCIALS prior_16s_active_return was 3.93%.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.65%, compared with 4.63% on July 21."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields fall sharply or financials underperform SPY after the FOMC communication.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "A dovish yield decline, credit concerns, or risk-off reaction around FOMC could hurt financials.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and press conference on July 29 before the weekly close, affecting yield-curve and bank sentiment."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent breadth improvement can persist if investors rotate away from concentrated mega-cap exposure into broader large-cap participation.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP outperformed SPY by 0.85% over 5 sessions and 1.07% over 21 sessions.",
"EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 quality evidence score was 0.651 with low volatility rank 0.776 and shallow drawdown rank 0.866.",
"RSP volatility_21s was 9.80%, below SPY's 11.70%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.28,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap concentration resumes and RSP's active return versus SPY turns negative during the week.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "If mega-cap technology resumes leadership, equal weight can lag SPY despite lower volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of recent market-breadth improvement into the FOMC week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive sector leadership with strong prior active return could continue if broad risk appetite weakens into FOMC.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE prior_16s_active_return was 4.08%.",
"HEALTHCARE active_return_5s was 1.70%.",
"HEALTHCARE quality evidence score was 0.569, with prior active rank 0.910."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare continues negative short-term momentum and underperforms SPY during the week.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "The sector's return_3s was -1.03% and volatility_21s was 21.85%, so recent defensive strength may be fading.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Potential defensive rotation around the July 29 FOMC communication."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dollar strength can continue if firm U.S. yields and FOMC uncertainty support safe-haven or rate-differential demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"US_DOLLAR active_return_5s was 1.69%.",
"UUP return_5s was 0.71% and return_21s was 0.32%.",
"US_DOLLAR had low volatility rank 0.866 and shallow drawdown rank 0.940."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP loses recent gains and turns negative versus SPY-adjusted cash proxies before the FOMC close.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "The prior_16s_active_return was -1.79%, and a dovish FOMC or stronger non-U.S. policy signal could weaken the dollar.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECB decision on July 23 and FOMC decision on July 29 before the weekly close."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.2595,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC communication on July 29 tightens financial conditions and pressures equities before the close.",
"Crude oil and commodity strength reverses after inventory data showed total commercial petroleum inventories up 11.6 million barrels.",
"Alphabet earnings reaction fades or is offset by broader growth-stock weakness.",
"Recent breadth leadership reverses back toward SPY's mega-cap concentration."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Alphabet-led communication services fail to hold positive relative performance versus SPY after the earnings reaction.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet's strong after-close revenue, margin, search, YouTube, and cloud growth provide a near-window mega-cap catalyst for communication services after a recent relative pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to Alphabet's after-close second-quarter results during the scoring week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses materially or the sector gives back its recent active breakout versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has strong prior and recent active performance with crude prices up sharply; sector exposure is less extreme than direct oil while still benefiting from oil momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of crude strength after Brent rose 3.4% to $94.07 and traded above $95."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Commodity prices broadly reverse or PDBC loses relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Broad commodities combine strong recent and prior active returns with elevated volume, offering inflation and commodity momentum exposure outside pure energy.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity follow-through after crude and broad commodity strength into the entry close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields fall sharply or financials underperform SPY after the FOMC communication.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials show strong prior active return and high quality evidence, with low correlation to SPY and moderate volatility supporting a one-week diversifier with upside.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and press conference on July 29 before the weekly close, affecting yield-curve and bank sentiment."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.28,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap concentration resumes and RSP's active return versus SPY turns negative during the week.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Equal-weight S&P has outperformed SPY over 5 and 21 sessions with lower volatility and shallow drawdown, supporting modest breadth exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of recent market-breadth improvement into the FOMC week."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.4095,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes candidates with near-week catalysts or cross-sectional evidence above SPY's base forecast while capping non-benchmark clusters. It balances Alphabet-related communications upside, commodity and energy momentum, financials around FOMC, and broader equal-weight breadth.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY's base case is modestly positive but not the strongest active forecast. Selected holdings each clear the SPY hurdle and span technology/growth, energy, commodities, financials, and diversified U.S. equity exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"output_tokens": 2707,
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}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio emphasizes a direct mega-cap earnings catalyst while diversifying into financials and energy, two clusters with positive relative trends. All active holdings have base forecasts above SPY, and no capped cluster exceeds 50%.
Alphabet's results create the strongest one-week catalyst, while Visa earnings, the FOMC decision, and elevated crude prices provide additional paths to outperformance.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling monthly inflation and a modest three-session rebound support stabilization into the FOMC decision.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY lost 0.98% over five sessions but gained 0.55% over the latest three sessions.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month, while payroll growth slowed to 57,000.",
"The FOMC decision and press conference occur before the July 29 close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below its recent 21-session drawdown range as yields rise.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated 3.5% headline inflation, a 4.65% ten-year yield, or hawkish Fed guidance could renew selling.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC statement and press conference before the scoring close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A strong fundamental report following a deep relative pullback can restart the sector's earlier outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet reported revenue growth of 24%, Google Cloud growth of 82%, and operating-margin expansion to 34%.",
"The option's quality evidence score was 0.830, with prior active rank 0.925 and pullback rank 0.955.",
"Communications underperformed SPY by 2.71% over five sessions despite a positive 4.70% prior active return."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Communications underperforms SPY through the first two sessions despite Alphabet's results.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "High expectations, volatile unrealized gains in Alphabet's net income, or broad growth-stock weakness could overwhelm the report.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 23 trading reaction to Alphabet's post-close results, followed by the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent prior relative strength and a moderate recent pause could resume around Visa earnings and the Fed decision.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials had a 3.93% prior active return and a 0.787 quality evidence score.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 13.55% with a 2.08% maximum drawdown.",
"Visa reports after the July 28 close, before the scoring-window exit."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials break below their recent drawdown range or materially underperform SPY after Visa reports.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak payment-volume guidance, falling yields, or growth concerns could pressure the sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Visa results after the July 28 close and the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent crude strength and geopolitical supply uncertainty can sustain energy-sector relative momentum.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent rose 3.4% to $94.07 on July 22.",
"Energy outperformed SPY by 5.76% over five sessions after a positive 3.11% prior active return.",
"Crude inventories rose 2.0 million barrels and total commercial petroleum inventories rose 11.6 million barrels."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses the July 22 advance and energy begins underperforming SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The sharp recent oil advance is vulnerable to profit-taking, especially given rising inventories and weaker year-over-year product supplied.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued repricing of Middle East supply risk and crude-price movement before the July 29 close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative performance plus a recent pullback supports a tactical rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Biotech had a 5.70% prior active return but underperformed SPY by 1.65% over five sessions.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.755, including prior and pullback ranks of 0.940.",
"Volatility was 28.47% and the 21-session maximum drawdown was 8.12%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Biotech extends its drawdown and fails to regain relative strength versus SPY early in the window.",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and the absence of a supplied sector-specific catalyst could extend the drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No sector-specific catalyst identified before the exit close; the July 29 FOMC may affect financing-sensitive biotechnology shares."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A supportive ECB outcome could extend recent relative strength.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Europe outperformed SPY by 0.95% over five sessions.",
"The ECB decision and press conference are scheduled for July 23.",
"Europe's quality evidence score was 0.537 and its prior active return was negative 0.41%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "European equities underperform SPY following the ECB decision.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish ECB message, euro volatility, or energy-cost concerns could reverse the advance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECB policy decision and press conference on July 23."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable short-term yields should preserve a small positive return with minimal price volatility.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasuries had 0.23% annualized 21-session volatility and a 0.01% maximum drawdown.",
"They returned 0.03% over the latest three sessions.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.590, supported by top-ranked low volatility and shallow drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp repricing of near-term policy rates produces an unusual weekly loss in short Treasury bills.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its cash-like return is unlikely to match an equity rebound over the one-week window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision may marginally affect short-rate expectations."
}
],
"confidence": 0.61,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.715,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Alphabet's strong reported growth may already be reflected in expectations or be overshadowed by volatile unrealized gains.",
"A hawkish July 29 FOMC communication could pressure equities and reverse the communications rebound.",
"Rising petroleum inventories and weak product supplied could trigger a sharp crude and energy reversal.",
"Visa results could disappoint or signal weaker payment volumes."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Communications underperforms SPY through the first two sessions despite Alphabet's results.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet's strong post-close revenue, cloud-growth, and margin results provide a direct near-term catalyst after the sector's recent relative pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 23 trading reaction to Alphabet's post-close results, followed by the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials break below their recent drawdown range or materially underperform SPY after Visa reports.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative performance and high cross-sectional quality are reinforced by Visa earnings before the exit close.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Visa results after the July 28 close and the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses the July 22 advance and energy begins underperforming SPY.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Rising crude prices and positive prior and recent relative returns support continuation, while the smaller weight limits reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued repricing of Middle East supply risk and crude-price movement before the July 29 close."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.065,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes a direct mega-cap earnings catalyst while diversifying into financials and energy, two clusters with positive relative trends. All active holdings have base forecasts above SPY, and no capped cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Alphabet's results create the strongest one-week catalyst, while Visa earnings, the FOMC decision, and elevated crude prices provide additional paths to outperformance.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-3
SP500 core with targeted overweights in energy and communications where base forecasts exceed SPY.
One-week allocation favors sectors with recent earnings or commodity support while capping cluster exposure at 20%.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stable macro data supports modest gains into FOMC",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7498.96 down 0.1%",
"June nonfarm payrolls +57k"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on July 29",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "CPI or payroll revisions trigger risk-off",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inventory draws and geopolitical premium persist",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to 94.07",
"EIA refinery utilization 96.1%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent closes below 90 on July 29",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand proxy falls further week-over-week",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory data and Brent above 93"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cloud and search momentum continues post-print",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet revenue 119.8B up 24%",
"Google Cloud revenue 24.8B up 82%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLC closes below 95 on July 29",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "Ad spend slowdown visible in follow-on data",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet follow-through and FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation holds through policy event",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active return positive 1.70% over 5 sessions",
"Low volatility rank 0.299"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV closes below 135 on July 29",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Rate-sensitive rotation accelerates post-FOMC",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yield curve stability supports banks",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLF prior active rank 0.896",
"Regional banks quality score 0.629"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF closes below 42 on July 29",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit spread widening on growth concerns",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid on policy uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5-session return 1.85%",
"Quality evidence score 0.172"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU closes below 48 on July 29",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength resumes post-FOMC",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity momentum persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC 5-session return 3.25%",
"Volume z-score elevated at 3.705"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC closes below 13.5 on July 29",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "USD rally compresses prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value rotation continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD active return 2.71% over 5 sessions",
"Low drawdown rank 0.910"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD closes below 82 on July 29",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth reasserts post-earnings season",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.255,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC outcome volatility on July 29",
"Oil price reversal below 90",
"Earnings follow-through disappointment"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on July 29",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad market exposure with neutral near-term catalyst support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent closes below 90 on July 29",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil inventory and Brent price strength provide base-case support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory data and Brent above 93"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLC closes below 95 on July 29",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet revenue and cloud growth exceed expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet follow-through and FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV closes below 135 on July 29",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with stable relative performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.655,
"portfolio_rationale": "SP500 core with targeted overweights in energy and communications where base forecasts exceed SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "One-week allocation favors sectors with recent earnings or commodity support while capping cluster exposure at 20%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy/commodities where price and inventory evidence is strongest while adding Alphabet-driven communications and financials for FOMC week diversification. All active legs carry base forecasts above SPY and respect the 50% cluster cap.
Energy complex leads on crude strength; communications benefits from Alphabet beat; financials offer FOMC optionality. Equal-weight and pure SPY lag the selected bases.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Mild bounce from recent soft patch if FOMC is neutral and mega-cap earnings support holds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 0.1% on July 22 at 7498.96",
"spy_return_5s at -0.98% and distance_52w_high -1.35%",
"FOMC decision and press conference scheduled July 29 before scoring close"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent range on hawkish Fed or risk-off",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed or weak follow-through data extends the 5-session decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement 2:00 p.m. ET July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical/supply uncertainty and recent momentum keep crude bid into week-end",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 3.4% to $94.07 after trading above $95",
"uso_return_5s +8.49% and active_return_5s +9.47%",
"EIA commercial crude inventories up 2.0 million barrels week ended July 17"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent sustained drop below $90 or large unexpected inventory surge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Inventory builds or demand soft patch trigger sharp mean-reversion after large 5-day gain",
"time_window_catalyst": "Crude price action and any supply headlines before July 29 close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil persistence and positive active trend support further outperformance vs SPY",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active_return_5s +5.76% and prior_16s_active_return +3.11%",
"Brent strength and energy sector linkage to crude",
"quality evidence score 0.492 with elevated prior active rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE underperformance if oil falls sharply or beta to risk-off rises",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Crude reversal or profit-taking after strong relative run",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil price continuation and FOMC macro clarity"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad commodity momentum and energy complex strength extend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC return_3s +3.25% and active_return_5s +4.71%",
"volume_zscore_5v60 elevated at 3.705",
"prior_16s_active_return +3.55%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp PDBC drawdown on stronger dollar or demand fears",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "USD strength or growth scare hits industrial and energy commodities",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity complex follow-through alongside oil into July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong Alphabet print drives sector re-rating and catch-up after recent pullback",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet Q2 revenue $119.8B up 24%, Cloud +82% to $24.8B, operating margin 34%",
"XLC quality evidence score 0.830 (high prior active and pullback ranks)",
"Communications prior_16s_active_return +4.70%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Negative post-earnings drift or XLC break of recent lows",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "Unrealized gains volatility or broader growth selloff offsets earnings beat",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market digestion of Alphabet results through July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates path and prior relative strength support financials",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF quality evidence score 0.787 with high prior active rank 0.896",
"prior_16s_active_return +3.93%",
"FOMC meeting concludes July 29 with statement and press conference"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish surprise or financial sector relative breakdown",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed or curve/credit concerns pressure banks and brokers",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision and presser July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth recovery continues if equal-weight leadership persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_5s +0.85% and rsp_return_21s +1.47%",
"quality evidence score 0.651",
"lower volatility_21s 9.80% vs SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP active return turns sharply negative vs SPY",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap rebound re-concentrates market and RSP lags",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and any breadth confirmation before July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High quality and prior trend resume after pullback",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.805 with top prior active rank 1.000",
"prior_16s_active_return +10.07%",
"recent active_return_5s -3.06% pullback"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Further relative underperformance or break of support",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "Continued high-vol tech weakness or factor rotation away from momentum",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified specific to cybersecurity before July 29"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.935,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC hawkish surprise triggering broad equity and commodity risk-off on July 29",
"Sudden crude inventory or demand disappointment reversing oil/energy gains",
"Post-earnings fade in Alphabet/communications names",
"Elevated single-cluster (energy) volatility within the 50% cap"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal in crude with Brent falling below recent range on demand or supply news",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Strong recent oil price momentum and inventory/build data support continued energy strength into FOMC week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Elevated Brent near $94-95 and weekly EIA inventory dynamics before July 29 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil price collapse or broad risk-off that decouples XLE from crude",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Sector levered to oil strength with positive prior active returns and quality support relative to broad market.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Crude price persistence and energy earnings/geopolitical supply uncertainty into FOMC"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity selloff or USD spike reversing PDBC gains",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Diversified commodity exposure capturing oil-linked and broader commodity momentum with elevated volume.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of commodity complex strength alongside energy into end-July"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Negative reaction to Alphabet details or broader tech/growth selloff",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet post-close beat with strong Cloud and services growth provides near-term catalyst for sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet Q2 results digestion and any follow-through in large-platform names before July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC surprise or credit/financial stress signals",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Solid prior active trend and quality score with potential rate-path clarity from FOMC.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and press conference on July 29 before scoring close"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.235,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy/commodities where price and inventory evidence is strongest while adding Alphabet-driven communications and financials for FOMC week diversification. All active legs carry base forecasts above SPY and respect the 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy complex leads on crude strength; communications benefits from Alphabet beat; financials offer FOMC optionality. Equal-weight and pure SPY lag the selected bases.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-22-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16522,
"latency_seconds": 41.789759376086295,
"output_tokens": 2621,
"reasoning_tokens": 839,
"total_tokens": 19982
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Communication Services Sector (XLC)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Broad Commodities (PDBC)15%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)30%S&P 500 (SPY)40%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Energy Sector (XLE)50%Communication Services Sector (XLC)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Communication Services Sector (XLC)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Broad Commodities (PDBC)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Communication Services Sector (XLC)50%Financials Sector (XLF)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Communication Services Sector (XLC)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Broad Commodities (PDBC)20%Communication Services Sector (XLC)15%Financials Sector (XLF)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-22 | 231.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-22 | 93.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-22 | 28.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-22 | 28.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-22 | 119.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-22 | 152.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-22 | 37.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-22 | 36.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-22 | 60.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-22 | 17.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-22 | 59.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-22 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-22 | 53.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-22 | 109.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-22 | 114.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-22 | 84.38 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-22 | 39.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-22 | 131.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-22 | 89.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-22 | 70.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-22 | 95.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-22 | 58.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-22 | 59.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-22 | 212.70 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-22 | 14.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-22 | 105.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-22 | 89.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-22 | 56.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-22 | 77.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-22 | 159.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-22 | 79.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-22 | 48.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-22 | 178.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-22 | 93.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-22 | 47.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-22 | 106.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-22 | 92.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-22 | 56.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-22 | 83.44 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-22 | 50.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-22 | 103.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-22 | 76.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-22 | 105.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-22 | 705.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-22 | 45.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-22 | 75.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-22 | 747.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-22 | 586.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-22 | 91.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-22 | 53.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-22 | 89.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-22 | 53.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-22 | 62.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-22 | 170.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-22 | 101.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-22 | 180.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-22 | 368.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-22 | 107.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-22 | 47.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-22 | 97.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-22 | 32.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-22 | 28.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-22 | 120.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-22 | 247.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-22 | 76.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-22 | 75.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-22 | 314.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-22 | 293.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-22 | 222.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-22 | 45.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | cb55d4f2bd27...de1709dc |
| manifest.yaml | 89ae3d497546...c669e166 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 3b6297d7bb82...79ef501b |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 5a7927838ae1...2dd3fe2c |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 2ac061341e3d...32844425 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | d415d03b13e6...f9e6b3dc |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 9b516cc78ec7...3f8a1b7c |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 41de789c95a2...19cf61f4 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |