Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 69.1 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +56.88% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +65.62%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Financials Sector (XLF) is the largest aggregate allocation at +21.88%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-06 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260730
32,704 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-30
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-31T08:42:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-31T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-30
- Exit date: 2026-08-06
- Entry rule: Use the Thursday, July 30, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Thursday, August 6, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-31T08:42:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 30, the S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63, up 1.7%; the Dow closed at 52,208.06, up 1.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,122.18, up 2.8%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,946.10, up 1.4%.
- The S&P 500 more than recovered its July 29 decline. Microsoft rose 15.5%, Micron Technology 18.4%, Lam Research 18%, and Advanced Micro Devices 13%, while Meta Platforms fell 8%.
- Through July 30, the S&P 500 was up 8.6% in 2026, the Dow 8.6%, the Nasdaq 8.1%, and the Russell 2000 18.7%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.67% late July 30, unchanged from late July 29; the thirty-year yield rose to 5.22% from 5.20%.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and rose 5.5% over twelve months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%, and orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30 to $86.88 per barrel. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.2%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.9%, and Samsung Electronics fell 0.7%.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. It projected CPI excluding fresh food would accelerate clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026 before declining toward around 2% later.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23. Final June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 6 Close
- July 31 after the cutoff: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index and euro-area July flash inflation.
- August 3: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
- August 4: June U.S. international trade, June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 6: weekly U.S. unemployment claims; weekly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-30-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-30'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-31T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-31T08:38:23.196588+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Thursday, July 30, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Thursday, August 6, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-30'
exit_date: '2026-08-06'
created_at: '2026-07-31T08:38:23.196588+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-31T08:42:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Thursday, July 30, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 30, the S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63, up 1.7%; the Dow closed at 52,208.06, up 1.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,122.18, up 2.8%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,946.10, up 1.4%.
- The S&P 500 more than recovered its July 29 decline. Microsoft rose 15.5%, Micron Technology 18.4%, Lam Research 18%, and Advanced Micro Devices 13%, while Meta Platforms fell 8%.
- Through July 30, the S&P 500 was up 8.6% in 2026, the Dow 8.6%, the Nasdaq 8.1%, and the Russell 2000 18.7%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.67% late July 30, unchanged from late July 29; the thirty-year yield rose to 5.22% from 5.20%.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and rose 5.5% over twelve months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%, and orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30 to $86.88 per barrel. South Korea's Kospi fell 1.2%, France's CAC 40 rose 0.9%, and Samsung Electronics fell 0.7%.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. It projected CPI excluding fresh food would accelerate clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026 before declining toward around 2% later.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23. Final June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 6 Close
- July 31 after the cutoff: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index and euro-area July flash inflation.
- August 3: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
- August 4: June U.S. international trade, June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 6: weekly U.S. unemployment claims; weekly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "91d25a6330eb03b611413a9980768efe6545601d469b4c6610eeb33bfdf520ad",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "6a84368376629a9fe6ee691d8764ee090c7e1acc8955ba319d85d81ffbcc9825",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "9435c6a12a9cd9492f986ec400773f221246abe0dbebdfa5ce1ae0da859ab86f",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-30-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Mega-cap tech showed mixed results (Meta -8%, high capex guidance) while breadth, value, financials and Europe show independent strength supported by elevated yields, a hawkish-leaning Fed hold, and a weakening dollar. Portfolio tilts toward equal-weight/value US equity, financials, Europe, and gold to capture the rotation while capping cluster exposure at 50%.
Overweight breadth (RSP), value, financials, Europe and gold versus SPY, expecting continued rotation away from concentrated mega-cap tech in a higher-for-longer rate regime with a softening dollar.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity and strong megacap earnings (Microsoft, Apple, Amazon) support the index.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,437.63 on July 30, up 1.7%, up 8.6% YTD",
"FOMC held rates 3.50-3.75% with three dissents for a hike; inflation elevated",
"spy_return_5s 0.48%, -2.10% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot ECI print pushing rate-hike expectations higher.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed dissents, 4.67% 10-yr yield, and soft payrolls (57k) cap upside; Meta weakness weighs on concentration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECI July 31, SLOOS Aug 3, JOLTS Aug 4, claims Aug 6."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth broadening (positive asset share 68% over 5 days) sustains equal-weight outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy 5-day +1.16%, 21-day +1.91%",
"Volatility 9.99% vs SPY 12.12%; drawdown only -1.46%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY 5-day spread turns negative.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap tech rally on strong earnings pulls cap-weighted SPY ahead.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data Aug 3-6 favoring cyclical breadth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Higher-for-longer rates and rotation from expensive growth favor value.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.36% 5-day active, +2.70% prior 16-day active return",
"-0.53% from 52-week high, 9.97% volatility"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD active return negative two straight sessions.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Falling yields or renewed tech momentum reverse the value rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Elevated 10-yr yield at 4.67% into ECI and labor data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Solid economy, elevated yields and steepening support bank earnings power.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+5.29% prior 16-day active, +1.62% 5-day active, -1.04% from 52w high",
"FOMC describes activity as solid; 10-yr at 4.67%, 30-yr 5.22%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Adverse SLOOS or XLF breaking 21-day low.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "SLOOS shows tightening credit or growth scare hits cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak dollar and steady ECB support USD-denominated European equity returns.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.12% 5-day active, at 52-week high; CAC 40 +0.9% July 30",
"Dollar UUP -1.47% over 5 days; euro-area inflation 2.8%, ECB on hold"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP rallies more than 1% during the window.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Dollar rebound or hot euro-area flash inflation triggers pullback from highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation July 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation and dollar softness sustain gold demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +1.51% 5-day, +2.37% 21-day",
"Inflation elevated (PCE 5.1% annualized Q2); dollar weakening"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rise in real yields or dollar strength.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Real yields rise on hot ECI; dollar rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECI July 31 inflation-cost read."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong Azure/AWS growth could refuel AI-tech rally.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-1.69% 5-day active, -4.88% prior active, -8.29% from 52w high, 24% volatility",
"Microsoft +15.5% but Meta -8% on 55% cost growth and $130-145B capex guide"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ reclaims recent highs on broad tech follow-through.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Capex concerns, Meta weakness and elevated rates keep pressuring growth multiples.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-earnings digestion through Aug 6."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls (57k) could rally duration on growth fears.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -3.83% over 21 days; 30-yr yield rose to 5.22%",
"Three FOMC dissents preferred a hike; core PCE 3.4% annualized in Q2"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Soft ECI drives 30-yr yield below 5.10%.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and hawkish dissents keep long yields elevated.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECI July 31 and JOLTS Aug 4."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.34,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap tech leadership resumes after strong Microsoft/Apple/Amazon results, dragging SPY above the breadth-tilted portfolio",
"Dollar rebound reverses Europe and gold tailwinds",
"Hot ECI or euro-area inflation prints push yields higher and hit all risk assets",
"SLOOS reveals credit tightening hurting financials"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY 5-day spread turns negative as mega-cap leadership reasserts.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth is broadening: RSP beat SPY by 1.16% over 5 sessions and 1.91% over 21, with lower volatility and shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation from mega-cap tech after mixed megacap earnings (Meta -8%); JOLTS Aug 4 and claims Aug 6."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth/tech resumes leadership; IWD active return turns negative for two consecutive sessions.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leading with +1.36% 5-day active return, +2.70% prior active trend, only -0.53% from 52-week high and low 9.97% volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation to value amid elevated 4.67% 10-year yield and hawkish-leaning Fed hold."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "SLOOS shows sharp credit tightening or XLF drops below its 21-day drawdown low.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong prior trend (+5.29% prior active) plus +1.62% recent active, near 52-week high; benefits from elevated rates and solid activity per FOMC.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey; elevated yields support net interest margins."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rebounds sharply (UUP +1% in the week) or hot euro-area inflation print.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Europe at 52-week high with +3.12% 5-day active return; CAC 40 up 0.9%, dollar weakening (-1.47% 5-day) boosts USD-denominated returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation July 31; continued dollar weakness tailwind."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rally or a jump in real yields; IAU 5-day return turns negative.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Diversifier with positive momentum: +1.51% 5-day, +2.37% 21-day, supported by weakening dollar and sticky elevated inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECI July 31 and payroll-adjacent data; dollar weakness continuation."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.64,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mega-cap tech showed mixed results (Meta -8%, high capex guidance) while breadth, value, financials and Europe show independent strength supported by elevated yields, a hawkish-leaning Fed hold, and a weakening dollar. Portfolio tilts toward equal-weight/value US equity, financials, Europe, and gold to capture the rotation while capping cluster exposure at 50%.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight breadth (RSP), value, financials, Europe and gold versus SPY, expecting continued rotation away from concentrated mega-cap tech in a higher-for-longer rate regime with a softening dollar.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27596,
"latency_seconds": 57.87658319598995,
"output_tokens": 3975,
"total_tokens": 31571
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Core SPY plus tilts to Europe and Financials, both showing durable relative strength, low drawdown, and supportive macro, while avoiding overheated high-beta tech that just had an 15%+ single-day megacap spike prone to mean reversion.
Balanced allocation anchored on SPY with modest overweights to leading, lower-volatility clusters (Europe, Financials) that clear the SPY base hurdle.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings and solid private demand support upside.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed +1.7% on July 30 at 7,437.63",
"Megacap earnings beats: MSFT +15.5%, Apple rev +16%",
"Real final sales to private domestic purchasers +3.9%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P falls more than 2% on rate/growth scare.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Overbought after sharp rally; elevated inflation and 9-3 hawkish FOMC dissent.",
"time_window_catalyst": "JOLTS, trade data, weekly claims through Aug 6."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broad relative strength and stable ECB support continued outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Europe active return +3.12% 5s, at 52w high",
"Low max drawdown -2.53%",
"Final June euro-area inflation 2.8%, ECB steady"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK falls below prior week close.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Extended run at highs prone to pullback; euro strength could reverse.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady rates and strong relative trend favor financials.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active return +5.29%",
"Quality evidence score 0.634, low drawdown -2.08%",
"Stable 10y yield 4.67%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF breaks recent support.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Curve flattening or credit stress could hurt.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3."
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI capex and cloud strength could drive rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ beta 1.708, volatility 24%",
"Prior active return -4.88%",
"Meta fell 8% post-earnings"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ drops more than 3%.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta and drawdown risk after megacap spike.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued megacap earnings digestion."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong relative momentum and commodity demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +4.19% 5s, near 52w high",
"Low drawdown -1.63%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "EWA falls below prior week close.",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"reversal_case": "Very shallow pullback rank suggests overextension.",
"time_window_catalyst": "China growth data effects."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand and softer dollar support gold.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +1.51% 5s, +2.37% 21s",
"Weaker dollar -1.47% 5s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU falls more than 2%.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields could pressure gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inflation and dollar moves."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates provide carry.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10y yield 4.67% unchanged",
"AGG low volatility 3.52%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields spike above 4.8%.",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC dissent risks higher yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECI and claims data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent bounce and resilient real PCE +0.4%.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLY +2.86% active 5s",
"Prior active -6.11%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLY reverses below prior week close.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"reversal_case": "Weak consumer confidence 90.8 and soft payrolls.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail-linked data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.14,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Post-earnings tech reversal could drag broad indices lower",
"Hot ECI or inflation prints could push yields up and pressure rate-sensitive and equity names",
"Rally exhaustion after a 1.7% S&P day may mean mean-reversion week"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 falls more than 2% intraweek on rate or growth scare.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad large-cap exposure after strong tech-led rally; solid GDP final sales and megacap earnings beats support continuation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August JOLTS, trade data, and weekly claims through Aug 6."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK reverses below prior week close or euro sells off sharply.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Europe showing strong recent active return (+3.12% 5s) with low drawdown and improving momentum; ECB steady.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area July flash inflation and regional earnings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF breaks below recent support or credit spreads widen sharply.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong prior active return (+5.29%), high quality-evidence rank, low volatility and drawdown, steady rates backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3 and yield curve stability."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.49,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SPY plus tilts to Europe and Financials, both showing durable relative strength, low drawdown, and supportive macro, while avoiding overheated high-beta tech that just had an 15%+ single-day megacap spike prone to mean reversion.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Balanced allocation anchored on SPY with modest overweights to leading, lower-volatility clusters (Europe, Financials) that clear the SPY base hurdle.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27602,
"latency_seconds": 39.72556352405809,
"output_tokens": 2565,
"total_tokens": 30167
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Barbell of benchmark core plus lower-volatility, positive-prior-trend diversifiers (financials, Europe, healthcare, gold) rather than chasing the sharp one-day mega-cap tech spike, which carries reversal risk after an 18% Micron / 15% Microsoft move.
SPY base +0.4%; tilt toward broad-based leadership outside crowded semis while keeping 40% benchmark to limit tracking error.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings and broad breadth (68% positive assets 5d).",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,437.63 up 1.7% on July 30",
"Up 8.6% in 2026; -2.1% from 52w high",
"Microsoft, Apple, Amazon beat with strong cloud growth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below prior week's low on rate shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Core inflation 3.3% and three hawkish FOMC dissents could lift yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 3 SLOOS, Aug 4 JOLTS/trade, Aug 6 claims"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent relative strength with low drawdown and steep curve.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active return +5.29%, drawdown only -2.08%",
"30-year yield rose to 5.22%",
"Vol 15.6% vs SPY 12.1%, near 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF lags SPY by >1.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "SLOOS showing tightening credit standards could hit banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey"
},
{
"continuation_case": "New highs with modest volatility and dollar weakness tailwind.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s +3.12%, at 0.00% from 52w high",
"Euro-area final June inflation 2.8%, ECB on hold",
"UUP -1.47% over 5 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK closes below prior week range",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Hot flash inflation or dollar rebound could stall the move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 euro-area flash inflation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists with elevated inflation uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active +2.90%, beta to SPY -0.17",
"Max 21s drawdown only -3.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY by >1.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on tech melt-up drains defensive flows.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 4-6 macro data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation and softer dollar support gold.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +1.51% 5s, +2.37% 21s",
"Core PCE 3.3% y/y, dollar down 1.47% 5s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks below prior week low with dollar rally",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish repricing after strong ECI lifts real yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 Employment Cost Index"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Massive hyperscaler capex guidance supports chip demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s -7.59%, prior 16s -10.39%",
"Vol 53.5%, drawdown -23.1%, volume z 2.76",
"Micron +18.4%, Lam +18% on July 30"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH gives back the July 30 gain",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and one-day spike invite mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-earnings capex digestion"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior strong trend and tight supply.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO -9.09% active 5s after +32.20% prior",
"Brent fell 1.4% to $86.88",
"Vol 63.2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent breaks below $84",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Sharp recent breakdown and extreme volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly inventory and OPEC news"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft payrolls (57k) and downward revisions could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -3.83% over 21 sessions; 30y yield 5.22%",
"Three FOMC members wanted a hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "30-year yield exceeds 5.35%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish dissents keep long yields rising.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 ECI, Aug 6 claims"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.23,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap tech momentum continues and SPY outruns the diversified tilts",
"Hot ECI or flash inflation lifts yields and hits gold and financials",
"Europe reverses from 52-week highs on dollar rebound",
"Weak JOLTS/claims triggers broad risk-off"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 falls more than 2% intra-week on rate or inflation shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure given strong mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-earnings drift plus Aug 4 JOLTS and Aug 6 claims"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY by more than 1.5% or credit spreads widen sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Steady leadership with low volatility, positive prior active return, minimal drawdown; steep curve with 30y at 5.22%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro reverses sharply or VGK breaks below prior week range",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "At 52-week high with positive breadth, weaker dollar tailwind, ECB on hold, contained 2.8% euro-area inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 euro-area flash inflation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive diversifier with positive prior active return, negative SPY beta, shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data Aug 4-6 supporting defensives"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rebounds strongly and gold breaks below prior week low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Hedge against elevated core inflation (3.3-3.4%) and hawkish FOMC dissents; weaker dollar supportive.",
"time_window_catalyst": "ECI July 31 and inflation data flow"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.63,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of benchmark core plus lower-volatility, positive-prior-trend diversifiers (financials, Europe, healthcare, gold) rather than chasing the sharp one-day mega-cap tech spike, which carries reversal risk after an 18% Micron / 15% Microsoft move.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base +0.4%; tilt toward broad-based leadership outside crowded semis while keeping 40% benchmark to limit tracking error.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27596,
"latency_seconds": 44.45625958009623,
"output_tokens": 3040,
"total_tokens": 30636
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio balances broad market exposure with targeted allocations to technology and financials, sectors poised to benefit from recent strong earnings and solid economic data. The allocation to SP500 provides stability, while the active bets aim to generate alpha.
A balanced approach favoring technology and financials based on strong earnings and solid economic indicators.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued positive sentiment and solid economic data.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63, up 1.7% on July 30.",
"Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in tech stocks or weak economic data.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sudden shift in market sentiment or weak economic data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued positive sentiment from tech earnings and solid GDP data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings momentum continues to drive tech stocks higher.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%.",
"Apple reported quarterly revenue up 16%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden shift in sentiment against mega-cap tech.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden shift in sentiment against mega-cap tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Positive reaction to recent strong earnings from Microsoft and Apple."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates and solid economic growth support financials.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate.",
"The FOMC voted to maintain the federal-funds target range."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unexpected weakness in economic data or a sudden drop in interest rates.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Unexpected weakness in economic data or a sudden drop in interest rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Stable interest rates and solid economic data supporting loan growth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil prices stabilize and energy companies maintain capital discipline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30 to $86.88 per barrel."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp decline in oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A further decline in oil prices due to weak demand or increased supply.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Stabilization in oil prices."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics attract investors in a volatile market.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare sector has a quality evidence score of 0.578."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong rally in cyclical sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A shift towards more cyclical sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields continue to rise on strong economic data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The thirty-year yield rose to 5.22% from 5.20%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in long-term yields.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden flight to safety or weak economic data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.225,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden reversal in tech stock sentiment.",
"Unexpectedly weak economic data.",
"A shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in tech stocks or weak economic data.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core holding to capture broad market recovery and solid GDP growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued positive sentiment from tech earnings and solid GDP data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden shift in sentiment against mega-cap tech.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Strong earnings from major tech companies support continued outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Positive reaction to recent strong earnings from Microsoft and Apple."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unexpected weakness in economic data or a sudden drop in interest rates.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Solid economic growth and stable rates provide a favorable environment for financials.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Stable interest rates and solid economic data supporting loan growth."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.425,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances broad market exposure with targeted allocations to technology and financials, sectors poised to benefit from recent strong earnings and solid economic data. The allocation to SP500 provides stability, while the active bets aim to generate alpha.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach favoring technology and financials based on strong earnings and solid economic indicators.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16820,
"latency_seconds": 15.837227239040658,
"output_tokens": 1688,
"total_tokens": 18508
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from mega-cap growth after a sharp July 30 rebound and toward value, financials, international breadth, and high-yield credit with supplied evidence of stronger relative breadth or lower drawdown. All selected active holdings have base forecasts above SPY and cluster exposure stays within the 50% cap.
Base case is that one-week breadth and cyclical/value continuation modestly outpace SPY, while high-yield credit dampens volatility. The strongest near-term catalysts are SLOOS, JOLTS/orders, claims, and euro-area inflation.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings strength from Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon data can sustain broad index risk appetite after the strong July 30 recovery.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed up 1.7% on July 30 and more than recovered its July 29 decline.",
"SPY return was 0.48% over 5 sessions and -0.68% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY volatility_21s was 12.12% with max_drawdown_21s of -3.38%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SPY loses the July 30 recovery and closes below the prior pullback area with breadth turning negative.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The sharp entry-day rally may have pulled forward near-term gains, and elevated inflation plus a divided FOMC can cap equity multiples.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 ECI, August 3 SLOOS, August 4 JOLTS/orders/trade, and August 6 jobless claims."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value leadership can continue if breadth remains positive and investors rotate away from concentrated mega-cap growth after the July 30 rebound.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active_return_5s was 1.36% and prior_16s_active_return was 2.70%.",
"Volatility_21s was 9.97% and max_drawdown_21s was -1.31%, both milder than SPY.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.650 with prior active rank 0.776 and shallow drawdown rank 0.925."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if value underperforms SPY by more than 1% early in the window while yields rise and breadth deteriorates.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "If mega-cap technology earnings momentum dominates, value's lower beta and sector mix may lag SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey, August 4 JOLTS and orders, and August 6 jobless claims can support cyclical/value breadth if growth looks resilient."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials can extend relative strength if loan conditions and labor data do not imply a sharp credit slowdown.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active_return_5s was 1.62% and prior_16s_active_return was 5.29%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.634 with prior active rank 0.881.",
"Distance from 52-week high was -1.04% and max_drawdown_21s was -2.08%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SLOOS shows materially tighter credit or financials fall below SPY by more than 1.25% before midweek.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "A negative SLOOS or weak labor data would raise credit-quality and loan-growth concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey and August 4 JOLTS provide direct read-throughs to credit conditions, loan demand, and bank earnings expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent breakout strength can persist if euro-area inflation does not force a more hawkish rates repricing and global risk appetite stays firm.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active_return_5s was 3.12% and return_3s was 2.42%.",
"Europe was at its 52-week high with distance_52w_high of 0.00%.",
"ECB kept policy rates unchanged July 23 and final June euro-area inflation was 2.8%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if euro-area inflation surprises in a way that sharply lifts rate concerns or Europe reverses below its recent breakout.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "A hot inflation print, currency reversal, or global risk-off move could quickly fade the recent strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 euro-area flash inflation and follow-through from ECB steady policy can drive regional relative performance before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Australia can continue to benefit from broad global equity participation and commodity-linked cyclical exposure if risk appetite holds.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active_return_5s was 4.19% and prior_16s_active_return was 2.32%.",
"Distance from 52-week high was -0.07% with max_drawdown_21s of -1.63%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.506 with prior active rank 0.731 and shallow drawdown rank 0.806."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if global cyclical equities weaken broadly or Australia gives back more than half of its recent 5-day relative gain.",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"reversal_case": "Its recent strength is extended over the 5-day window, so a reversal in commodities or global cyclicals could hurt relative performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of global cyclical breadth and commodity-linked equity demand through the scheduled US trade, orders, and labor-market data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable risk appetite and benign credit data can allow carry-like positive performance with lower volatility than equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Volatility_21s was 2.77% and max_drawdown_21s was -0.80%.",
"Prior_16s_active_return was 0.68% and distance_52w_high was -0.50%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.667 with low-volatility rank 0.970 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.985."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.32,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.85,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if credit spreads proxy behavior weakens, HYG turns negative versus SPY by more than 0.75%, or labor data signals abrupt deterioration.",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"reversal_case": "Credit spreads could widen if SLOOS or labor-market data point to weaker borrowers or tighter lending standards.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey and weekly jobless claims can support spreads if credit and labor conditions remain benign."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior active trend and commodity-linked inflation backdrop could reassert if crude stabilizes after the July 30 decline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior_16s_active_return was 12.96% and quality evidence score was 0.771.",
"Active_return_5s was -1.18% and distance_52w_high was -5.07%.",
"Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30 to $86.88 per barrel."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if crude continues lower or XLE underperforms SPY by more than 1% during the first half of the window.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Recent underperformance and falling Brent show near-term pressure, while energy beta to SPY was negative over 63 sessions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific scheduled energy catalyst identified; potential sensitivity to weekly macro growth and risk-appetite data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent software strength could continue if technology risk appetite broadens beyond mega-cap earnings beneficiaries.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active_return_5s was 6.65% and return_3s was 2.64%.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.139 with recent active pullback rank 0.000.",
"Distance from 52-week high was -20.77% and volatility_21s was 25.34%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if software gives back more than one-third of its recent 5-day active gain or technology breadth narrows.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "The move appears sharp and weakly supported by the quality score, leaving it vulnerable to profit-taking within a one-week window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No direct software-specific scheduled catalyst identified; continuation would rely on broad technology sentiment after major company earnings."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.2165,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The July 30 mega-cap technology rebound continues and SPY outperforms diversified value, financials, and international exposures.",
"Scheduled labor or credit data weaken risk appetite and pressure financials, high yield, and cyclical international equities.",
"Euro-area inflation or currency moves reverse the recent Europe and Australia strength.",
"A broad equity pullback after the S&P 500's 1.7% entry-day gain overwhelms relative-factor signals."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if value underperforms SPY by more than 1% early in the window while yields rise and breadth deteriorates.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Large-cap value has positive relative trend, low recent drawdown, and less dependence on mega-cap growth continuation after the July 30 rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey, August 4 JOLTS and orders, and August 6 jobless claims can support cyclical/value breadth if growth looks resilient."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SLOOS shows materially tighter credit or financials fall below SPY by more than 1.25% before midweek.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials combine the strongest prior active trend among major US sectors considered, positive near-term active return, and a macro setup where loan and labor data can matter within the week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey and August 4 JOLTS provide direct read-throughs to credit conditions, loan demand, and bank earnings expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if euro-area inflation surprises in a way that sharply lifts rate concerns or Europe reverses below its recent breakout.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Europe has strong recent active return, is at a 52-week high, and has ECB policy already held steady with euro-area flash inflation due immediately after cutoff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 31 euro-area flash inflation and follow-through from ECB steady policy can drive regional relative performance before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if global cyclical equities weaken broadly or Australia gives back more than half of its recent 5-day relative gain.",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"rationale": "Australia shows strong short-term and prior relative performance with shallow drawdown, while maintaining a non-US cyclical exposure distinct from US mega-cap concentration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of global cyclical breadth and commodity-linked equity demand through the scheduled US trade, orders, and labor-market data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.32,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if credit spreads proxy behavior weakens, HYG turns negative versus SPY by more than 0.75%, or labor data signals abrupt deterioration.",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"rationale": "High yield has low volatility, shallow drawdown, and a modest positive prior active trend, offering a lower-beta way to benefit if risk appetite remains stable.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey and weekly jobless claims can support spreads if credit and labor conditions remain benign."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.4665,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from mega-cap growth after a sharp July 30 rebound and toward value, financials, international breadth, and high-yield credit with supplied evidence of stronger relative breadth or lower drawdown. All selected active holdings have base forecasts above SPY and cluster exposure stays within the 50% cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base case is that one-week breadth and cyclical/value continuation modestly outpace SPY, while high-yield credit dampens volatility. The strongest near-term catalysts are SLOOS, JOLTS/orders, claims, and euro-area inflation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15321,
"latency_seconds": 47.488922343123704,
"output_tokens": 2956,
"reasoning_tokens": 211,
"total_tokens": 18277
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines four distinct clusters with independent weekly drivers and every holding clears SPY's base forecast. It favors supported relative trends while using agriculture's high-quality pullback setup to reduce dependence on equity beta.
Financials, China, agriculture, and yen offer stronger one-week base cases than SPY based on relative trend, pullback quality, and identifiable macro transmission channels. Cluster diversification limits concentration to 30%.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad participation and strong mega-cap earnings can extend the rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 0.48% over five sessions but lost 0.68% over 21 sessions.",
"Positive asset share was 68.12% over five sessions and equal weight beat SPY by 1.16%.",
"The FOMC held rates while inflation remained elevated and payroll growth was weak."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Breadth deteriorates sharply or SPY breaks below its recent 21-session drawdown low.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The 1.7% entry-day surge may fade as elevated inflation and weaker labor data constrain valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Employment Cost Index, Senior Loan Officer Survey, JOLTS, and August 6 claims."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent relative strength and solid private demand support banks and diversified financial firms.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF beat SPY by 1.62% over five sessions and 5.29% in the prior 16-session window.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.634 with a 0.881 prior active rank.",
"Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit conditions deteriorate materially or XLF loses relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak lending demand, credit deterioration, or a sharp yield decline could unwind the trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey and August 4 JOLTS."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The strong prior trend can resume after a contained pullback, with low SPY correlation providing diversification.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Agriculture had the universe's highest quality evidence score at 0.826.",
"Its prior active rank was 0.925 and recent pullback rank was 0.881.",
"DBA's prior 16-session active return was 7.04%, followed by a 3.17% five-session underperformance."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "DBA extends its decline and breaks below its recent 21-session drawdown trough.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "The pullback may reflect a genuine commodity trend break rather than temporary mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific scheduled agriculture catalyst identified; macro and dollar releases through August 6 may affect commodity pricing."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Independent positive relative trend and reported growth can sustain international risk appetite.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"MCHI beat SPY by 3.55% over five sessions and 5.70% in the prior 16-session window.",
"China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year.",
"China's prior active rank was 0.896, though its recent pullback rank was only 0.075."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI reverses its recent relative advance and underperforms SPY materially.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "The recent gain may be overextended, while policy, currency, and geopolitical risks remain high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area inflation and U.S. macro releases may influence global growth and emerging-market risk appetite."
},
{
"continuation_case": "BOJ normalization expectations and elevated participation can extend yen strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FXY beat SPY by 2.33% over five sessions and rose 2.80% over three sessions.",
"Its recent volume z-score was 2.387.",
"The BOJ held its rate near 1.0%, with one member favoring 1.25%, and projected inflation above 2%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "FXY gives back its recent advance as U.S.-Japan rate differentials widen.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"reversal_case": "A stronger dollar or widening U.S.-Japan rate differential could rapidly revive carry pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-BOJ repricing and U.S. labor and inflation-sensitive releases through August 6."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A strong prior trend could resume if crude stabilizes after its pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Energy's quality evidence score was 0.771 and prior active rank was 0.955.",
"XLE's prior 16-session active return was 12.96%, but it lagged SPY by 1.18% over five sessions.",
"Brent crude fell 1.4% on July 30."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude continues lower and XLE underperforms SPY beyond its recent pullback.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Falling crude and weaker recent relative performance could deepen the correction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. trade and manufacturing data may alter the near-term demand outlook."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable policy rates support a small, predictable carry return.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury had a 0.749 quality evidence score and the lowest volatility profile among traded options.",
"BIL returned 0.03% over three sessions with a negligible drawdown.",
"The federal-funds target remained 3.50% to 3.75%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A pricing or distribution effect causes BIL to post a negative weekly adjusted-close return.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its low volatility also limits upside and makes benchmark outperformance unlikely during an equity advance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No material price catalyst identified; accrual is the primary return source."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.43,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot U.S. cost or labor data could lift yields and pressure risk assets.",
"The recent broad equity rally could reverse after the July 30 surge.",
"China or emerging-market sentiment could weaken despite recent relative strength.",
"Agriculture's pullback could continue without a near-term asset-specific catalyst.",
"Post-BOJ yen strength could reverse if rate differentials widen."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit conditions deteriorate materially or XLF loses relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong prior and recent benchmark-relative performance, supported by solid domestic demand and an upcoming lending-conditions survey.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey and August 4 JOLTS."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "DBA extends its decline and breaks below its recent 21-session drawdown trough.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "Highest quality score in the universe combines strong prior trend with a recent pullback, offering a diversified mean-reversion setup.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific scheduled agriculture catalyst identified; macro and dollar releases through August 6 may affect commodity pricing."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI reverses its recent relative advance and underperforms SPY materially.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive prior and recent active returns align with reported 4.3% year-over-year Chinese GDP growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area inflation and U.S. macro releases may influence global growth and emerging-market risk appetite."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "FXY gives back its recent advance as U.S.-Japan rate differentials widen.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"rationale": "Recent strength, elevated volume, and the BOJ's inflation outlook support continued adjustment in rate differentials.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-BOJ repricing and U.S. labor and inflation-sensitive releases through August 6."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.68,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines four distinct clusters with independent weekly drivers and every holding clears SPY's base forecast. It favors supported relative trends while using agriculture's high-quality pullback setup to reduce dependence on equity beta.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Financials, China, agriculture, and yen offer stronger one-week base cases than SPY based on relative trend, pullback quality, and identifiable macro transmission channels. Cluster diversification limits concentration to 30%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15323,
"latency_seconds": 28.553534644888714,
"output_tokens": 1946,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 17269
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of SP500 with value, financials, Europe, and energy to capture higher base-case returns while staying diversified across clusters.
Selected holdings exceed SP500 base forecast; allocations respect 50% cluster cap and 5% increments.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Recent breadth recovery persists into August 6 close",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed at 7437.63 up 1.7% on July 30",
"spy_return_5s of 0.48%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "GDP slowdown and elevated inflation prompt selling",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value outperformance continues on rotation",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE active_return_5s 1.36%",
"quality evidence score 0.650"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound erodes relative gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sector momentum holds through window",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS prior active rank 0.881",
"active_return_5s 1.62%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Rate volatility triggers bank selloff",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European equities extend relative strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EUROPE active_return_5s 3.12%",
"return_3s 2.42%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Euro-area inflation miss sparks reversal",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil price stability supports sector",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY quality evidence score 0.771",
"prior active rank 0.955"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Brent decline accelerates on demand fears",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech weakness persists after earnings volatility",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"NASDAQ100 active_return_5s -1.69%",
"distance_52w_high -8.29%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap rebound lifts index",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid continues modestly",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD quality evidence score 0.521",
"iau_return_5s 1.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength caps gold gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.45,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation reacceleration from PCE and CPI prints",
"FOMC policy surprise on August 3 survey",
"Weak August 6 claims data triggering risk-off rotation"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad market exposure with solid recent recovery and limited near-term catalysts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt shows positive active return and lower volatility than growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Sector exhibits strong prior active rank and positive recent momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "International equity with highest 5s active return among peers.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 5,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on August 6",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Commodity exposure with top quality evidence score and prior strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 4 data releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.95,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of SP500 with value, financials, Europe, and energy to capture higher base-case returns while staying diversified across clusters.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings exceed SP500 base forecast; allocations respect 50% cluster cap and 5% increments.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15550,
"latency_seconds": 12.779268635902554,
"output_tokens": 1665,
"reasoning_tokens": 562,
"total_tokens": 17777
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in five active holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY, spanning distinct clusters under the 50% cap, emphasizing recent relative strength, quality scores, and near-term catalysts within the one-week window.
Selected SOFTWARE, ENERGY, EUROPE, FINANCIALS and AGRICULTURE for higher base-case weekly returns than SPY after FOMC hold and mixed earnings; equal-ish weights keep cluster exposures balanced while targeting positive alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth recovery and solid private domestic sales support modest weekly grind higher",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,437.63 up 1.7% on July 30 recovering prior decline",
"FOMC held funds rate at 3.50-3.75% with elevated inflation and uncertainty noted",
"spy_return_5s at 0.48% and distance to 52w high -2.10%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below recent support with volume spike and negative breadth",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft claims or trade data plus residual inflation could trigger profit-taking after the July 30 rally",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 6 weekly claims and any residual post-FOMC commentary"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong cloud and software earnings momentum can extend relative outperformance into the short window",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE return_3s +2.64% and active_return_5s +6.65%",
"Microsoft quarterly revenue up 18% with Azure growth 43%",
"Apple revenue up 16% and Amazon AWS up 37%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Software sector reverses more than 3% on rising rates or negative follow-through volume",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High valuation sensitivity and prior drawdown leave room for sharp mean-reversion if rates rise",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-earnings digestion of Microsoft and related software results before August 6 close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong multi-week prior active trend and elevated quality score favor rebound after recent oil pullback",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY quality evidence score 0.771 with prior active rank 0.955",
"prior_16s_active_return +12.96% for ENERGY",
"Brent crude at $86.88 after 1.4% decline on July 30"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude breaks below recent lows with XLE underperforming SPY by over 2%",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Further crude weakness or demand concerns could extend the 5-session underperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil price stabilization and any inventory or geopolitical headlines before exit close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive momentum to new highs plus stable ECB policy supports further relative gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EUROPE return_3s +2.42% active_return_5s +3.12% and at 0.00% distance to 52w high",
"ECB kept policy rates unchanged with final June euro-area inflation at 2.8%",
"France CAC 40 rose 0.9% on July 30"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Europe equities gap down over 2% on stronger USD or weak inflation data",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Stronger USD or disappointing euro-area data could reverse the short-term outperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area flash inflation release and any ECB-related commentary through August 6"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable yields and constructive prior trend favor continued modest outperformance versus SPY",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS quality score 0.634 with prior active rank 0.881 and prior_16s_active_return +5.29%",
"Ten-year yield steady at 4.67% after FOMC hold",
"active_return_5s +1.62% for FINANCIALS"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials lag SPY by more than 1.5% on rising credit concerns or yield spike",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit tightening signals from loan survey or rising unemployment claims could pressure banks",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on August 3 and claims data August 6"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Top quality score combining trend and pullback supports mean-reversion higher in the week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"AGRICULTURE quality evidence score 0.826 highest in table with prior active rank 0.925",
"prior_16s_active_return +7.04% for AGRICULTURE",
"recent pullback rank 0.881"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture ETF drops over 2% on USD strength or inventory surprises",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "USD strength or weather/inventory news could extend the recent 5-session active underperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond general commodity flows before exit close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft USD and elevated inflation uncertainty could sustain safe-haven bid",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD iau_return_5s +1.51% and active_return_5s +1.03%",
"quality evidence score 0.521 with prior active rank 0.716",
"distance_52w_high -23.89%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold falls more than 2% as real yields rise and USD strengthens",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields or stronger risk appetite would pressure gold lower",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any inflation data surprises or USD moves before August 6"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend could resume if risk appetite holds after equity bounce",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BITCOIN_ETF quality score 0.681 with prior active rank 0.940 and prior_16s_active_return +11.24%",
"active_return_5s -0.34% and distance_52w_high -48.52%",
"volatility_21s 30.48%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Bitcoin ETF drops over 5% on risk-off equity move or flow reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and deep drawdown from highs leave large downside if liquidity fades",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified specific to crypto before exit close"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.805,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Elevated inflation readings or hawkish Fed speak could pressure risk assets broadly",
"Sharp USD rebound would reverse international and commodity holdings",
"Post-earnings profit-taking in software and tech-related names",
"Oil price volatility spilling into energy sector underperformance"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Software sector reverses more than 3% on rising rates or negative follow-through volume",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Recent relative strength and mega-cap software earnings support short-horizon continuation above broad market.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-earnings digestion of Microsoft and related software results before August 6 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude breaks below recent lows with XLE underperforming SPY by over 2%",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "High quality evidence score and strong prior active trend support base case above SPY despite oil volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil price stabilization and any inventory or geopolitical headlines before exit close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Europe equities gap down over 2% on stronger USD or weak inflation data",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "At 52-week high with positive active returns and ECB policy stability favoring continuation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area flash inflation release and any ECB-related commentary through August 6"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Financials lag SPY by more than 1.5% on rising credit concerns or yield spike",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Solid prior active return and quality rank with stable rates backdrop after FOMC hold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on August 3 and claims data August 6"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture ETF drops over 2% on USD strength or inventory surprises",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "Highest quality evidence score and constructive prior active trend for diversified commodity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond general commodity flows before exit close"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.255,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in five active holdings with base forecasts exceeding SPY, spanning distinct clusters under the 50% cap, emphasizing recent relative strength, quality scores, and near-term catalysts within the one-week window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected SOFTWARE, ENERGY, EUROPE, FINANCIALS and AGRICULTURE for higher base-case weekly returns than SPY after FOMC hold and mixed earnings; equal-ish weights keep cluster exposures balanced while targeting positive alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16399,
"latency_seconds": 52.11400246503763,
"output_tokens": 2761,
"reasoning_tokens": 870,
"total_tokens": 20030
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Gold (IAU)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Europe Equities (VGK)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)10%Gold (IAU)10% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Technology Sector (XLK)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Australia Equities (EWA)15%High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG)20% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)25%China Equities (MCHI)25%Japanese Yen (FXY)20% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Europe Equities (VGK)15%Energy Sector (XLE)5% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Software (IGV)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-30 | 238.13 | Adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-30 | 93.29 | Adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-30 | 27.48 | Adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-30 | 29.82 | Adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-30 | 113.98 | Adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-30 | 151.46 | Adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-30 | 36.70 | Adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-30 | 36.53 | Adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-30 | 58.69 | Adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-30 | 17.50 | Adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-30 | 59.79 | Adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-30 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-30 | 55.50 | Adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-30 | 106.58 | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-30 | 112.39 | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-30 | 85.47 | Adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-30 | 39.34 | Adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-30 | 127.48 | Adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-30 | 90.02 | Adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-30 | 71.09 | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-30 | 94.79 | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-30 | 58.19 | Adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-30 | 58.96 | Adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-30 | 215.38 | Adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-30 | 14.51 | Adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-30 | 106.47 | Adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-30 | 90.99 | Adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-30 | 57.00 | Adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-30 | 77.30 | Adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-30 | 163.52 | Adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-30 | 79.47 | Adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-30 | 49.70 | Adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-30 | 178.39 | Adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-30 | 93.21 | Adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-30 | 47.88 | Adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-30 | 106.41 | Adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-30 | 93.29 | Adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-30 | 57.58 | Adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-30 | 82.80 | Adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-30 | 51.64 | Adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-30 | 101.86 | Adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-30 | 77.11 | Adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-30 | 105.76 | Adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-30 | 683.55 | Adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-30 | 45.30 | Adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-30 | 75.90 | Adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-30 | 741.69 | Adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-30 | 538.90 | Adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-30 | 91.65 | Adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-30 | 53.50 | Adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-30 | 93.31 | Adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-30 | 49.84 | Adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-30 | 64.11 | Adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-30 | 161.21 | Adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-30 | 94.00 | Adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-30 | 175.73 | Adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-30 | 366.27 | Adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-30 | 107.74 | Adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-30 | 48.68 | Adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-30 | 97.62 | Adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-30 | 33.41 | Adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-30 | 28.14 | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-30 | 117.43 | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-30 | 250.71 | Adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-30 | 76.38 | Adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-30 | 75.35 | Adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-30 | 298.77 | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-30 | 292.59 | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-30 | 221.79 | Adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-30 | 44.66 | Adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | f7ad652a4829...e6de2b6e |
| manifest.yaml | 04045275aa8a...b0d365df |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 3f4866a9cdb0...cc8a248e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 91d25a6330eb...fdf520ad |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 6a8436837662...fbcc9825 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | d978c80553af...780c18da |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 454ebb1052dd...1e2555c1 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 9435c6a12a9c...859ab86f |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |