Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 65.3 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +37.50% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +53.75%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +17.81%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
9 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-24 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
9 artifacts published.
official-v2-all-weekly-final-20260717
31,870 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Energy Sector (XLE)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-17
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-18T06:20:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-18T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-17
- Exit date: 2026-07-24
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 17, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 24, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Weekly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 18, 2026 at 06:20 UTC. Scoring window: July 17 through July 24, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% for the month. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% decrease in energy, while services increased 0.2%. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June import prices increased 0.3% for the month and 7.1% over 12 months. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.2% over 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.6% for the month.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Federal Reserve reported that June industrial production increased 0.1% and second-quarter production increased at a 4.0% annual rate. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 4.1% over 12 months and core PCE prices increased 3.4%.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 17, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.85% at three months, 4.18% at two years, 4.55% at ten years, and 5.06% at 30 years. Treasury curve rates are interpolated.
## Market, International, And Energy Data
- On July 17, the S&P 500 closed at 7,475.69, down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,520.24, down 1.4% for the session and 2.9% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,962.22, down 0.4% for the session and 0.5% for the week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 1.76 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.73 to 1 on Nasdaq.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3% year over year. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3, while its small-enterprise component was 48.2. GDP figures were preliminary.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and forecast a $74 third-quarter average. It forecast 2026 U.S. crude production of 13.8 million barrels per day. Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session. EIA values beyond observed dates are forecasts.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 21: BEA direct-investment data and BLS state employment, unemployment, and usual weekly earnings releases.
- July 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-17-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-17'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-18T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 17, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 24, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-17'
exit_date: '2026-07-24'
created_at: '2026-07-18T06:18:11.751394+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.0 weekly round. Research assembled after the July 17 close through direct public-source browsing; participant model tools and search are disabled.# CapitalBench Weekly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 18, 2026 at 06:20 UTC. Scoring window: July 17 through July 24, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% for the month. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% decrease in energy, while services increased 0.2%. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June import prices increased 0.3% for the month and 7.1% over 12 months. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.2% over 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.6% for the month.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Federal Reserve reported that June industrial production increased 0.1% and second-quarter production increased at a 4.0% annual rate. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 4.1% over 12 months and core PCE prices increased 3.4%.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 17, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.85% at three months, 4.18% at two years, 4.55% at ten years, and 5.06% at 30 years. Treasury curve rates are interpolated.
## Market, International, And Energy Data
- On July 17, the S&P 500 closed at 7,475.69, down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,520.24, down 1.4% for the session and 2.9% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,962.22, down 0.4% for the session and 0.5% for the week. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 1.76 to 1 on the NYSE and 1.73 to 1 on Nasdaq.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3% year over year. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year. The official June manufacturing PMI was 50.3, while its small-enterprise component was 48.2. GDP figures were preliminary.
- The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that Brent crude averaged $85 per barrel in June and forecast a $74 third-quarter average. It forecast 2026 U.S. crude production of 13.8 million barrels per day. Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session. EIA values beyond observed dates are forecasts.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 21: BEA direct-investment data and BLS state employment, unemployment, and usual weekly earnings releases.
- July 22 at 10:30 a.m. ET: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 17.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-17-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Market internals show a clear rotation: SPY down 1.6% for the week driven by tech (SMH -7.3%, XLK -4.4%) while value, defensives, financials, and energy post positive absolute and active returns. Portfolio overweights low-beta value/defensive sectors plus a modest energy sleeve backed by the crude spike.
Underweight mega-cap growth, overweight value/defensive/financials/energy to capture continued breadth rotation over the one-week window with reduced beta to a falling index.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap weakness persists, cap-weighted index lags equal-weight.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY -1.54% over 5 sessions, down 1.6% for week",
"Tech-heavy weighting dragged by SMH -16.8% drawdown and XLK -8.6% drawdown",
"RSP-SPY +1.64% over 21 sessions shows breadth rotation away from cap-weighted index"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong tech-led rebound restoring cap-weighted leadership.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Oversold tech bounce lifts index sharply.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified; light macro calendar through July 24."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth de-rating continues with high beta amplifying index weakness.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ -3.38% over 3 sessions, -6.71% from 52w high",
"25.8% 21s volatility, 1.70 beta to SPY",
"Prior-window active return already negative (-1.36%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad tech reversal higher on strong earnings.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Oversold bounce in mega-cap tech could produce a sharp rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings season ramping."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rotation to value persists as growth de-rates; supported in both recent and prior windows.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+0.67% 3s and +2.03% active 5s while SPY fell",
"Only -0.57% from 52w high with -1.06% max drawdown",
"Prior-window active return also positive (+0.72%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp mega-cap tech rebound reversing the rotation into value.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound pulls flows back out of value.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation from mega-cap growth after weak payrolls and cooling CPI; no major macro release in-window."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue amid weak breadth (37.7% positive assets 21s).",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+0.87% 3s and +2.51% active 5s",
"Negative SPY beta (-0.27) and prior active return +1.12%",
"Only -0.48% from 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong broad risk-on rally lifting high-beta over low-vol.",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally favors high-beta over low-vol.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing risk-off with 43% positive asset share; defensive flows persist."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Multi-window relative strength with defensive character continues.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.77% 3s and +1.70% active 5s",
"Prior-window active return +4.75%, strongest sustained sector trend",
"Near-zero beta to SPY (-0.10)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy/pricing headline or sharp cyclical rotation away from defensives.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Rotation back to growth or adverse healthcare policy headline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation continuation; sector earnings season underway."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and consistent multi-window relative strength persist through earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+2.53% active 5s and +1.99% prior-window active return",
"Positive volume z-score (0.52) confirming interest",
"2s10s Treasury spread +37bp (4.18% vs 4.55%) supports net interest margins"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress headlines or sharp curve flattening/rate rally.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Earnings misses or credit deterioration headlines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings season and steep yield curve through July 24."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Crude momentum plus negative index beta gives alpha if market stays weak.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent +4.6% in July 17 session; XLE +6.26% active 5s",
"USO +14% over 5 sessions with negative SPY correlation",
"EIA report July 22 is an in-window catalyst"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude reversing sharply lower toward the EIA $74 Q3 forecast path.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil spike mean-reverts toward EIA $74 Q3 Brent forecast; prior-window active return was negative.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls (57k) and soft CPI could extend the duration bid.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT +0.52% 3s but -2.51% prior-window active return",
"30y at 5.06%, still elevated; core CPI unchanged m/m but 12m CPI 3.5%",
"Fed on hold at 3.5-3.75% with 3.8% year-end median"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Long-end yields rising on inflation or supply concerns.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky 3.4% core PCE and 5.5% PPI y/y keep long yields elevated.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before July 24 close."
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.4,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp mega-cap tech rebound would leave the low-beta portfolio lagging SPY",
"Crude oil spike reverses, hurting the energy sleeve",
"Defensive/value crowding unwinds in a broad risk-on move",
"Bank earnings disappointments hit financials"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp mega-cap tech rebound reversing the rotation into value.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value showing positive absolute returns amid tech-led selloff; near 52w high with low drawdown; benefits from breadth rotation (RSP-SPY +1.64% 21s).",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation from mega-cap growth after weak payrolls and cooling CPI; no major macro release in-window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong broad risk-on rally lifting high-beta over low-vol.",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Defensive factor with negative SPY beta (-0.27) and positive 3s return; hedges continued index weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing risk-off with 43% positive asset share; defensive flows persist."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy/pricing headline or sharp cyclical rotation away from defensives.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive prior-window active return (+4.75%) plus recent strength (+1.77% 3s); near-zero SPY beta cushions further drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation continuation; sector earnings season underway."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress headlines or sharp curve flattening/rate rally.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active return both windows (+2.53% 5s, +1.99% prior), positive volume z-score, steep curve (2s10s +37bp) supportive.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings season and steep yield curve through July 24."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude reversing sharply lower toward the EIA $74 Q3 forecast path.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent +4.6% July 17, oil momentum strong (USO +15.6% active 5s); XLE +6.26% active with negative SPY beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"portfolio_rationale": "Market internals show a clear rotation: SPY down 1.6% for the week driven by tech (SMH -7.3%, XLK -4.4%) while value, defensives, financials, and energy post positive absolute and active returns. Portfolio overweights low-beta value/defensive sectors plus a modest energy sleeve backed by the crude spike.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Underweight mega-cap growth, overweight value/defensive/financials/energy to capture continued breadth rotation over the one-week window with reduced beta to a falling index.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23703,
"latency_seconds": 44.644365698099136,
"output_tokens": 3818,
"total_tokens": 27521
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Overweight energy on strong oil momentum with EIA catalyst, add defensive staples and yield-curve-benefiting regional banks, anchor with SPY.
SPY weak (-1.6% wk) led by tech drawdown; rotation into energy, defensives, financials evident. Portfolio tilts to these leaders while keeping SPY core.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce plus cool CPI supports mean reversion",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY -1.6% week, -1.0% on 7/17",
"10y yield 4.55%",
"June CPI -0.4% m/m, cool inflation"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7,400",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tech-led selling continues, breadth deteriorates",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 earnings peak week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil momentum plus supply catalyst",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent +4.6% on 7/17 session",
"XLE active_return_5s +6.26%",
"EIA report scheduled July 22"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below pre-surge level",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Profit-taking after 7% weekly surge",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Direct oil exposure captures momentum",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO +15.58% active 5s",
"Brent +4.6%",
"EIA report July 22"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "USO drops 5%+",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Contango and mean reversion after huge move",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "NIM benefit + bank earnings",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"KRE active_return_5s +3.77%",
"Prior 16s active +3.22%",
"Steep curve 2y-30y ~88bp"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG breaks down >1%",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Credit quality concerns resurface",
"time_window_catalyst": "Regional bank earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid continues amid tech weakness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP active_return_5s +2.82%",
"Defensive rotation with breadth 43% positive",
"Low corr to SPY -0.27"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLP -2% in session",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally rotates out of defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued market volatility"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive rebound",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLRE active 5s +3.73%",
"Long yields still elevated at 5.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "TLT drops >1%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Long yields rise further",
"time_window_catalyst": "None"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce in mega-cap tech",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ -2.9% week",
"Active 5s -2.62%",
"SMH -7.37% active"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ new lows",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Semi weakness spreads",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe haven bid if equity selloff resumes",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 21s -7.36%",
"Distance from 52w high -25.67%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU new 52w low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Downtrend intact, DXY firm",
"time_window_catalyst": "None"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil reversal if EIA shows large build",
"Tech snap-back rally lifts SPY faster than defensives",
"Bank earnings disappointment"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses more than 5% or EIA shows large inventory build",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent +4.6% on 7/17 and XLE +6.26% active 5s; oil momentum with EIA inventory catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spread widening or curve flattening",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "KRE +3.77% active 5s with steep curve (30y 5.06%, 2y 4.18%) supportive.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Regional bank Q2 earnings cluster next week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rebound in tech",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive with +2.82% active 5s amid broad market weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation continuation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below prior week low with expanding volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure; oversold bounce potential after -1.6% week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings season peak week"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.95,
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight energy on strong oil momentum with EIA catalyst, add defensive staples and yield-curve-benefiting regional banks, anchor with SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY weak (-1.6% wk) led by tech drawdown; rotation into energy, defensives, financials evident. Portfolio tilts to these leaders while keeping SPY core.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23714,
"latency_seconds": 32.165760876843706,
"output_tokens": 2375,
"total_tokens": 26089
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Market is in a defensive drawdown with growth/tech leading declines and value, dividends, financials, energy showing positive active returns. We tilt to those defensive and cyclically-supported clusters while holding SPY core.
Overweight energy on oil strength, dividends and financials on defensive rotation, retain SPY core.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market stabilizes after pullback",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed 7,475.69 down 1.6% week",
"spy_return_5s -1.54%",
"beta 1.00 benchmark"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "VIX spikes and market breaks lower",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Continued breadth deterioration, 1.76:1 decliners",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 employment, July 22 EIA"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil rally continues, energy defensive vs market",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent +4.6% July 17 session",
"XLE active_return_5s 6.26%",
"negative beta -0.772"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below June average",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA build reverses oil rally",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend leadership persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD 3s return +2.20%",
"beta 0.10",
"active_return_5s 3.12%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rotation into growth",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound pulls flows from defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials steady with earnings support",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active_return_5s 2.53%",
"prior_16s active 1.99%",
"beta 0.189"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen materially",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress hits banks",
"time_window_catalyst": "Financial data flow through July 24"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth bounce after oversold",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ 3s -3.38%",
"beta 1.695",
"drawdown -6.01%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth breaks lower",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Tech leads decline further",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLP 3s +2.12%",
"beta -0.343",
"active_5s 2.82%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on move",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration bid on growth fears",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT 5s +0.06%",
"10y 4.55%",
"prior 21s -1.58%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise sharply",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Inflation sticky at 3.5% CPI",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe haven demand",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5s -2.28%",
"21s -7.36%",
"drawdown -8.22%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks lower",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Continued gold weakness",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.385,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil reverses if EIA report shows large inventory build",
"Defensive rotation unwinds and growth rebounds sharply"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses below June average with builds in inventories",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 4.6% in July 17 session, strong 6.26% 5s active return, oil supply catalyst via EIA report supports energy continuation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Defensive rotation reverses and high-beta growth rallies sharply",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "SCHD low beta 0.10, defensive tilt with +2.20% 3s return during broad market decline, low correlation cushions risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 state employment data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply, yield curve dynamics turn adverse",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "XLF positive 2.53% active 5s, strong prior-window active return 1.99%, low beta and steady momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Regional bank/financial data flow into July 24"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff accelerates with rising volatility",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to limit tracking error while active tilts express views.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 employment and July 22 EIA releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.685,
"portfolio_rationale": "Market is in a defensive drawdown with growth/tech leading declines and value, dividends, financials, energy showing positive active returns. We tilt to those defensive and cyclically-supported clusters while holding SPY core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy on oil strength, dividends and financials on defensive rotation, retain SPY core.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23709,
"latency_seconds": 30.32039238093421,
"output_tokens": 2354,
"total_tokens": 26063
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio overweights energy and oil to capitalize on recent strong momentum in crude prices. It balances this cyclical exposure with regional banks and consumer staples, which have shown recent relative strength against a weak broad market. This combination aims to generate alpha through sector rotation while managing downside risk.
Overweight energy and oil for momentum, balanced with regional banks and consumer staples for relative strength.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": -0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Recent negative momentum and weak breadth continue to weigh on the broad market.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The S&P 500 closed at 7,475.69, down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week.",
"Declining issues outnumbered advancers by 1.76 to 1 on the NYSE."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes above 7,550.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sudden shift in sentiment or strong earnings could reverse the recent downtrend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent momentum in oil prices continues, supported by the 4.6% jump in Brent crude on July 17.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session.",
"USO returned 14.04% over the last 5 sessions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "EIA reports a massive unexpected build in crude inventories.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "A surprise build in inventories or a sudden de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could cause a sharp pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities follow the strong upward move in underlying crude oil prices.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE returned 6.26% active return over the last 5 sessions.",
"Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 market session."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil prices drop sharply, dragging XLE down.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A drop in oil prices or broader market selloff drags down energy stocks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent outperformance in regional banks continues as investors rotate into value and financials.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"KRE returned 3.77% active return over the last 5 sessions.",
"KRE returned 2.25% over the last 3 sessions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE drops below its recent support level.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "A sudden steepening of the yield curve or negative credit news could reverse the trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues amid broader market weakness, supporting consumer staples.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP returned 2.82% active return over the last 5 sessions.",
"XLP returned 2.12% over the last 3 sessions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broader market rallies strongly, leading to underperformance of defensive sectors.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally causes investors to rotate out of defensive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields remain elevated, keeping pressure on long-duration bonds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT returned 0.06% over the last 5 sessions.",
"Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 4.55% at ten years and 5.06% at 30 years."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yield drops below 4.40%.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden flight to safety or weaker-than-expected economic data could drive yields down and bond prices up.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent negative momentum in gold continues amid elevated real yields.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned -2.28% over the last 5 sessions.",
"IAU returned -7.36% over the last 21 sessions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold prices rally sharply on safe-haven demand.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A sudden drop in real yields or a spike in geopolitical risk could boost gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.75,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden reversal in oil prices could negatively impact the 50% allocation to energy and oil.",
"A strong broad market rally could lead to underperformance of the defensive consumer staples allocation.",
"Unexpected negative news in the banking sector could hurt the regional banks position."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "EIA reports a massive unexpected build in crude inventories.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum and a 4.6% jump in Brent crude support a short-term continuation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil prices drop sharply, dragging XLE down.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities are well-positioned to benefit from the recent surge in oil prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE drops below its recent support level.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance suggests a rotation into financials that may persist over the short horizon.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broader market rallies strongly, leading to underperformance of defensive sectors.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Provides defensive exposure amid broader market weakness, supported by recent positive active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.25,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio overweights energy and oil to capitalize on recent strong momentum in crude prices. It balances this cyclical exposure with regional banks and consumer staples, which have shown recent relative strength against a weak broad market. This combination aims to generate alpha through sector rotation while managing downside risk.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy and oil for momentum, balanced with regional banks and consumer staples for relative strength.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15042,
"latency_seconds": 18.064061888027936,
"output_tokens": 2210,
"total_tokens": 17252
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from SPY concentration toward recent relative-strength, lower-correlation, and rate-sensitive/defensive exposures that have plausible one-week catalysts from softer inflation data and scheduled petroleum data. Energy exposure is kept modest because the oil move is extended and the EIA forecast points to lower third-quarter Brent than June.
SPY has weak short-term breadth and negative 5-day/21-day returns, while several value, defensive, financial, real-estate, and energy exposures have stronger active trends. Selected holdings all have base forecasts above SPY and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "A broad market rebound could follow the one-week decline if investors focus on softer CPI/PPI and stable retail sales.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.0% for the session and 1.6% for the week.",
"SPY return_3s was -1.14%, 21-session volatility was 12.73%, and distance from 52-week high was -1.89%.",
"Declining issues outnumbered advancers on both NYSE and Nasdaq."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY reclaims positive short-term momentum with improving breadth and outperforms defensive/value exposures early in the window.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak breadth, negative weekly momentum, and underperformance versus equal weight may persist into the next week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No major broad-market scheduled catalyst identified before the exit close beyond July 21 labor/state data and July 22 petroleum data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative momentum and low benchmark correlation can continue if softer inflation lowers rate pressure and financials remain in favor.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Regional banks had 3.77% active return over 5 sessions and 3.22% prior 16-session active return.",
"Return_3s was 2.25%, with distance from 52-week high at -1.58%.",
"Beta to SPY was 0.294 and 63-session correlation to SPY was 0.184."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional banks give back recent leadership and turn negative versus SPY over the first sessions of the window, or credit/rate stress reappears.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Regional banks are very high risk and could reverse if credit-quality, deposit, or yield-curve concerns return.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Follow-through from lower CPI/PPI readings and any stabilization in rates before the July 24 close; no major listed bank-specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive real estate can continue if softer inflation data supports stable or lower yields.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Real estate had 3.73% active return over 5 sessions and 2.11% return_3s.",
"Distance from 52-week high was -0.09%, among the closest in the table.",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% month over month and core CPI was unchanged."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yield rises materially from 4.55% or XLRE breaks below recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "The 10-year yield at 4.55% and 30-year yield at 5.06% remain high, leaving real estate vulnerable to renewed rate pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of lower-inflation rate relief before the exit close; no specific sector data release identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A defensive/value rotation can persist if investors avoid higher-volatility growth exposures after weak index breadth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities had 3.12% active return over 5 sessions and 2.20% return_3s.",
"Distance from 52-week high was -0.39%.",
"SPY and Nasdaq both declined for the week while breadth was negative."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth reclaims leadership and dividend equities underperform SPY early in the week.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "If risk appetite rebounds, dividend equities may lag higher-beta growth and benchmark exposures.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation after SPY and Nasdaq weekly declines; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil-linked equities may continue to benefit if petroleum prices hold gains and inventory data are supportive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy had 6.26% active return over 5 sessions and 1.28% return_3s.",
"Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 session.",
"EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is scheduled for July 22."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude reverses sharply lower or the EIA report indicates bearish inventories/supply conditions.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA forecast a lower third-quarter Brent average than June, and recent energy gains may be stretched.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and follow-through from Brent/crude strength."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive healthcare leadership can persist if broad equity weakness and negative breadth continue.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare had 1.70% active return over 5 sessions and 4.75% prior 16-session active return.",
"Return_3s was 1.77%.",
"Correlation to SPY was -0.071 and beta was -0.099."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses relative strength versus SPY or risk-on growth sectors lead a broad rebound.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Sector strength could fade if investors rotate back into high-beta growth after the recent selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of defensive sector rotation before the exit close; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum could persist if the July 22 petroleum report confirms tight inventories or supply concerns.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Oil had 15.58% active return over 5 sessions and 3.15% return_3s.",
"Mechanical market state showed USO return_5s of 14.04%.",
"EIA forecast third-quarter Brent at $74 versus a June average of $85."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "USO breaks below its post-spike level or the petroleum report points to weaker demand or higher supply/inventories.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The very large five-session move and lower EIA third-quarter forecast create high mean-reversion risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like Treasury bill returns should remain stable with low volatility over one week.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury had 0.04% return_3s and 0.25% 21-session volatility.",
"Three-month Treasury yield was 3.85% on July 17.",
"Distance from 52-week high was 0.00%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.09,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.03,
"invalidation_condition": "Equity risk appetite improves enough that SPY expected rebound materially exceeds cash-like returns.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Low expected return makes it unlikely to beat SPY if equities rebound modestly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Accrual-like short Treasury exposure; no specific catalyst identified."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.375,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sharp rebound in mega-cap growth and technology could make SPY outperform the diversified active tilts.",
"Treasury yields could rise despite softer CPI/PPI, hurting real estate and other rate-sensitive holdings.",
"Oil could reverse after a 14% five-session move or the EIA petroleum report could be bearish for energy.",
"Recent relative-strength signals may mean-revert over the one-week horizon."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional banks give back recent leadership and turn negative versus SPY over the first sessions of the window, or credit/rate stress reappears.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Financials and regional banks showed positive short-window and prior-window active strength, with low SPY beta and potential benefit from a less inflationary CPI/PPI mix.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Follow-through from lower CPI/PPI readings and any stabilization in rates before the July 24 close; no major listed bank-specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year Treasury yield rises materially from 4.55% or XLRE breaks below recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Real estate combines strong recent active return, near-52-week-high positioning, and sensitivity to lower inflation and yields after soft CPI/PPI data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of lower-inflation rate relief before the exit close; no specific sector data release identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth reclaims leadership and dividend equities underperform SPY early in the week.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities outperformed SPY in the latest week and offer a defensive/value tilt amid broad market weakness and weak breadth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation after SPY and Nasdaq weekly declines; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude reverses sharply lower or the EIA report indicates bearish inventories/supply conditions.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has a direct near-term catalyst from the scheduled EIA petroleum report and was supported by a sharp oil move, while allocation is limited due to reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and follow-through from Brent/crude strength."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses relative strength versus SPY or risk-on growth sectors lead a broad rebound.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has positive recent and prior active strength with low correlation to SPY, offering a diversifying defensive equity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of defensive sector rotation before the exit close; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.525,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from SPY concentration toward recent relative-strength, lower-correlation, and rate-sensitive/defensive exposures that have plausible one-week catalysts from softer inflation data and scheduled petroleum data. Energy exposure is kept modest because the oil move is extended and the EIA forecast points to lower third-quarter Brent than June.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has weak short-term breadth and negative 5-day/21-day returns, while several value, defensive, financial, real-estate, and energy exposures have stronger active trends. Selected holdings all have base forecasts above SPY and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12733,
"latency_seconds": 31.636103332974017,
"output_tokens": 2659,
"reasoning_tokens": 253,
"total_tokens": 15392
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors confirmed defensive and value leadership while adding intermediate Treasuries as a hedge against weak employment and equity volatility. It avoids extrapolating the unusually large oil rally ahead of the weekly petroleum report.
Dividend equities, healthcare, financials, and intermediate Treasuries each have base forecasts above SPY. The allocation spans four capped exposure clusters and has a weighted base return of 0.52%.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Weak breadth, soft payroll growth, and technology-led selling could extend the decline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY declined 1.54% over five sessions and 0.68% over 21 sessions.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month, but core PCE inflation was 3.4% year over year.",
"Declining issues outnumbered advancers on both the NYSE and Nasdaq on July 17."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad market breadth improves decisively and SPY recovers its five-session decline early in the window.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Benign monthly CPI and the prior week's decline could support a broad rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 state employment and unemployment releases may alter growth and rate expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive and income-oriented leadership persists as investors rotate away from volatile growth shares.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD outperformed SPY by 3.12 percentage points over five sessions.",
"Its three-session return was 2.20%, and it was only 0.39% below its 52-week high.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was negative 0.48%, so longer confirmation is weak."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms SPY for two consecutive sessions while its July 17 relative-strength move reverses.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A rapid technology rebound or profit-taking near the 52-week high reverses recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No option-specific scheduled catalyst; potential continuation of the defensive and value rotation through July 24."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Established relative momentum and defensive demand persist during a weak-breadth equity market.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV outperformed SPY by 1.70 percentage points over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was 4.75%, providing trend confirmation.",
"Its measured 63-session correlation with SPY was negative 0.071."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses its recent relative strength and closes below its July 17 level while SPY advances.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A broad risk-on rebound rotates capital from healthcare into growth and cyclical sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No option-specific scheduled catalyst; potential continuation of defensive-sector leadership through July 24."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative momentum and elevated longer-term yields continue supporting financial shares.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF outperformed SPY by 2.53 percentage points over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was 1.99%.",
"The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were 4.55% and 5.06%, respectively, on July 17."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY after the July 21 labor releases or Treasury yields fall sharply alongside worsening growth concerns.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak labor data intensifies credit concerns or sharply lower yields pressure financial-sector earnings expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 state employment and unemployment releases may influence growth, credit, and rate expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft employment and monthly inflation data push intermediate yields lower.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IEF returned 0.31% over three sessions and outperformed SPY by 1.77 percentage points over five sessions.",
"June payrolls increased only 57,000, with prior months revised down by 74,000.",
"June core CPI was unchanged month over month."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.55% and IEF closes below its July 17 level.",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated PCE inflation, import prices, or renewed rate concerns lift Treasury yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 state labor-market releases could reinforce expectations of softer employment and lower yields."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply concerns and momentum extend the sharp oil-price advance into the petroleum report.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO gained 14.04% over five sessions and 7.35% over 21 sessions.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 48.38%.",
"EIA forecast a $74 third-quarter Brent average after Brent averaged $85 in June."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "USO fails to hold its July 17 level after the EIA report or reverses most of the latest three-session gain.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The unusually large weekly gain unwinds if inventory data are bearish or prices converge toward EIA's lower quarterly forecast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report is scheduled for July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative momentum persists independently of the broad equity market.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"DBA outperformed SPY by 1.80 percentage points over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was 3.29%.",
"Its measured 63-session correlation and beta to SPY were both negative 0.021."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "DBA closes below its July 17 level and its five-session active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "Absent a supplied weather or crop catalyst, recent gains could fade through ordinary commodity volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No scheduled agriculture-specific catalyst was identified before the exit close."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.37,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sharp rebound in mega-cap growth could cause the defensive equity holdings to lag SPY.",
"A rise in Treasury yields driven by persistent import or PCE inflation could hurt IEF.",
"Weak July 21 labor data could raise financial-sector credit concerns even while supporting Treasuries.",
"Recent dividend and healthcare relative strength could reverse after crowded defensive positioning."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms SPY for two consecutive sessions while its July 17 relative-strength move reverses.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive dividend exposure has materially outperformed SPY recently, although the preceding trend offers limited confirmation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No option-specific scheduled catalyst; potential continuation of the defensive and value rotation through July 24."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses its recent relative strength and closes below its July 17 level while SPY advances.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare combines recent relative strength with positive prior-window active performance and low measured SPY correlation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No option-specific scheduled catalyst; potential continuation of defensive-sector leadership through July 24."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY after the July 21 labor releases or Treasury yields fall sharply alongside worsening growth concerns.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials have positive recent and prior-window active returns, providing stronger trend confirmation than most equity finalists.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 state employment and unemployment releases may influence growth, credit, and rate expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.55% and IEF closes below its July 17 level.",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Weak payroll growth and benign June core CPI support a modest duration bid, with lower equity sensitivity than the other holdings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 state labor-market releases could reinforce expectations of softer employment and lower yields."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.52,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors confirmed defensive and value leadership while adding intermediate Treasuries as a hedge against weak employment and equity volatility. It avoids extrapolating the unusually large oil rally ahead of the weekly petroleum report.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Dividend equities, healthcare, financials, and intermediate Treasuries each have base forecasts above SPY. The allocation spans four capped exposure clusters and has a weighted base return of 0.52%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12735,
"latency_seconds": 57.17614509118721,
"output_tokens": 2909,
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"total_tokens": 15644
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Energy leads on oil momentum; staples and financials add defensive and cyclical support above SPY base; 15% SPY anchors benchmark.
Selected holdings have base forecasts exceeding SPY; energy cluster at cap; four clusters represented.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad equity participation stabilizes after CPI and jobs data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed down 1.6% for the week",
"Declining issues outnumbered advancers 1.76:1"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "NYSE decliners exceed 1.8:1 ratio",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further downside if industrial production misses",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil price strength persists into EIA report",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active return 6.26%",
"USO active return 15.58%",
"Brent up 4.6% in session"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.9,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below recent session gains",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA inventory surprise reverses gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue on soft growth prints",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP active return 2.82%",
"CPI ex-food-energy unchanged"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.4,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI reacceleration above 3.5% YoY",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Retail sales accelerate beyond 0.2%",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 BLS state employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yield curve and bank data support sector",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active return 2.53%",
"KRE active return 3.77%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Unemployment revision worsens further",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 BEA direct-investment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend tilt holds in low-volatility regime",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD active return 3.12%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.9,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Equal-weight RSP underperforms SPY by >1%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Value rotation stalls on growth rebound",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Small-value outperformance continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IWN active return 2.62%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Small-cap drawdown exceeds 3%",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Russell 2000 lags further on risk-off",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive defensive holds after TLT stability",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLRE active return 3.73%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "TLT drawdown exceeds 2%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "10-year yield rises above 4.6%",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Crude futures maintain upward slope",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO active return 15.58%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "USO closes below prior-week low",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "EIA report shows inventory build",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.615,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Weak payrolls and downward revisions pressure growth outlook",
"Tech and growth drawdowns may spill into broader market",
"Oil volatility from EIA inventory data"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below recent session gains",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent active returns and oil price momentum within scoring window",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.9,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI reacceleration above 3.5% YoY",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive active returns amid weak growth data",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 BLS state employment data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rises above 4.3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active returns and regional bank strength in supplied data",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 BEA direct-investment data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "NYSE decliners exceed 1.8:1 ratio",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark exposure with base forecast cleared by selected actives",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.215,
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy leads on oil momentum; staples and financials add defensive and cyclical support above SPY base; 15% SPY anchors benchmark.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings have base forecasts exceeding SPY; energy cluster at cap; four clusters represented.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12969,
"latency_seconds": 17.19622253300622,
"output_tokens": 1664,
"reasoning_tokens": 698,
"total_tokens": 15331
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio tilts to recent relative winners in energy, value, financials and defensives that cleared the SPY base hurdle after soft CPI and payrolls. Avoids beaten-up tech/growth clusters given high volatility and drawdowns.
SPY base is modest after weekly decline; selected holdings show stronger recent active returns and cluster diversification within the 50% cap. One-week horizon favors continuation of defensive/value and oil strength over reversal into mega-cap growth.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft inflation and jobs data support modest rebound or stabilization after the weekly decline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.0% on July 17 and 1.6% for the week",
"June CPI fell 0.4% monthly with core unchanged; payrolls +57k",
"spy_return_5s -1.54% and distance_52w_high -1.89%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below recent weekly lows with rising volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further breadth deterioration or growth scare extends the drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 BEA/BLS releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short-term momentum and inventory focus can sustain gains into the EIA print despite longer-term forecast.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude increased 4.6% in the July 17 session",
"ENERGY active_return_5s +6.26% and OIL return_5s +14.04%",
"EIA noted June Brent average $85 with Q3 forecast $74"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil price drop >3% on inventory data",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Mean-reversion after large weekly move or bearish inventory surprise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative strength and low distance to highs persist under mixed macro.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND return_3s +2.20% and active_return_5s +3.12%",
"distance_52w_high only -0.39%",
"Soft June CPI and payrolls favor defensive income equities"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Underperformance versus SPY on two consecutive sessions with rising yields",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Aggressive rotation back to growth if risk appetite returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued outperformance on stable curve and soft-landing narrative.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS return_3s +2.25% and active_return_5s +3.77%",
"prior_16s_active_return +3.22%",
"Treasury yields stable with 10y at 4.55% on July 17"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "KRE breaks below recent support on volume",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Credit or deposit concerns re-emerge or curve flattens sharply.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior active strength and defensive flows continue in low-conviction tape.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active_return_5s +1.70% and prior_16s_active_return +4.75%",
"return_3s +1.77%",
"Defensive sector bid amid weaker payrolls and CPI cool-down"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV relative weakness versus SPY exceeds 1% in-window",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Profit-taking after extended relative run or risk-on breadth expansion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value and smaller-cap relative bid persists with soft large-growth leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SMALL_VALUE return_3s +1.25% and active_return_5s +2.62%",
"rsp_minus_spy_5s +1.11% showing equal-weight leadership",
"distance_52w_high -0.82%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.85,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWM/IWN lag SPY by >1.5% on rising volatility",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Liquidity or risk-off hits high-beta small caps.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated volume and commodity momentum carry forward.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BROAD_COMMODITIES active_return_5s +6.47% and volume_zscore_5v60 3.747",
"return_3s +1.00%",
"Oil strength contributed to recent commodity move"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC gives back majority of 5-session gain",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Oil mean-reversion drags the broad basket.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Near-highs and rate stability support further gains.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"REAL_ESTATE return_3s +2.11% and active_return_5s +3.73%",
"distance_52w_high -0.09%",
"10y yield at 4.55% on decision date"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield rises above 4.70% with XLRE underperformance",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Yield backup or growth scare hits REITs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.79,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sudden risk-on rebound in Nasdaq/tech reverses value and energy leadership",
"EIA report or oil supply news triggers sharp energy pullback",
"Unexpectedly strong data lifts yields and pressures rate-sensitive names",
"Broad equity follow-through selling from the prior week"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses sharply lower or inventory build exceeds expectations",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Recent oil strength and session gains support short-term continuation over soft equity tape.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rotation back into growth/tech leaders",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Relative strength versus SPY and defensive tilt favored under soft inflation and payroll data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp steepening or credit stress headlines",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Strong active returns and financials resilience amid stable yields and soft landing signals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy or earnings disappointment",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive prior active trend and defensive characteristics under mixed growth data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.85,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-off move hits small caps harder than large caps",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Outperformance versus SPY and value tilt supported by equal-weight relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.04,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio tilts to recent relative winners in energy, value, financials and defensives that cleared the SPY base hurdle after soft CPI and payrolls. Avoids beaten-up tech/growth clusters given high volatility and drawdowns.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest after weekly decline; selected holdings show stronger recent active returns and cluster diversification within the 50% cap. One-week horizon favors continuation of defensive/value and oil strength over reversal into mega-cap growth.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-17-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13761,
"latency_seconds": 40.72565162694082,
"output_tokens": 2482,
"reasoning_tokens": 488,
"total_tokens": 16731
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Energy Sector (XLE)10% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Regional Banks (KRE)15%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)15%S&P 500 (SPY)35% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Regional Banks (KRE)25%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Regional Banks (KRE)25%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF)20% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)50%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Regional Banks (KRE)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-17 | 230.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-17 | 93.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-17 | 27.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-17 | 28.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-17 | 116.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-17 | 154.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-17 | 36.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-17 | 35.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-17 | 58.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-17 | 17.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-17 | 59.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-17 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-17 | 52.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-17 | 110.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-17 | 115.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-17 | 85.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-17 | 37.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-17 | 123.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-17 | 92.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-17 | 69.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-17 | 95.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-17 | 57.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-17 | 57.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-17 | 213.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-17 | 13.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-17 | 105.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-17 | 88.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-17 | 56.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-17 | 75.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-17 | 161.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-17 | 79.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-17 | 48.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-17 | 179.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-17 | 93.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-17 | 47.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-17 | 107.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-17 | 90.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-17 | 56.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-17 | 84.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-17 | 50.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-17 | 98.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-17 | 75.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-17 | 106.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-17 | 695.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-17 | 45.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-17 | 76.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-17 | 743.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-17 | 556.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-17 | 91.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-17 | 50.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-17 | 92.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-17 | 53.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-17 | 62.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-17 | 162.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-17 | 97.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-17 | 175.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-17 | 367.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-17 | 108.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-17 | 46.94 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-17 | 98.20 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-17 | 32.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-17 | 28.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-17 | 119.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-17 | 248.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-17 | 76.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-17 | 75.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-17 | 302.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-17 | 294.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-17 | 222.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-17 | 45.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | b7fe222181e4...6ff0755d |
| manifest.yaml | 3814d64377f2...1afc8d76 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 6c33e0bcacb0...42d9db7d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 91781bd2587b...e29f274a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 823b7fb14c14...b457c5ab |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | b89739f1ed58...823ce88e |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 56aa11e0208b...e5215ccd |
| submission_schema.json | f74e11a346ed...4031ce88 |