AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 68.5/100 As of August 30, 2026. Selective risk taking Model Agreement Mixed 5.5 point dispersion Insight Models found the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Software (IGV) at +5.93%. 4 of 7 models held it, with +17.86% average allocation. The largest allocation came from Claude Fable 5 at +35.00%. Crowded Position S&P 500 22.5% 5 models hold SPY Biggest Shift Silver up 25.0 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Claude Opus 5 currently leads at 1.6% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Claude Fable 5 led 2.9% vs S&P 0.5% Full Weekly History Claude Opus 5 leads score 9.8 across 17/55
Data Prices Aug 28 124/124 audited

One-week rounds

All Available Weekly History

Context across every resolved one-week round. Fair model-vs-model rankings use equal-run comparison sets.

Weekly track

Full-History Weekly Scores

Resolved weekly rounds only.

55 resolved rounds compared2 full-history models ranked8 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-08-21-1W
All resolved rounds

Full-History Model Scores

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
Gemini 3.1 Pro
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 55/55 scored rounds
4.7
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 55/55 scored rounds
-2.9
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 55/55 scored rounds
2.5
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
55 resolved rounds compared2 full-history models ranked8 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-08-21-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
0.48%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-0.30%
S&P S&P 500
0.26%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
10.22%
Not ranked yet Short-history models

Shown for transparency; not included in the main ranking until they have all 55 completed rounds.

Anthropic
Claude Opus 5 Anthropic · short history · 17/55 scored rounds
Score (17/55)
9.8
Avg return
1.33%
OpenAI
GPT-5.6 Sol OpenAI · short history · 26/55 scored rounds
Score (26/55)
9.3
Avg return
1.09%
xAI
Grok 4.5 xAI · short history · 28/55 scored rounds
Score (28/55)
6.9
Avg return
0.79%
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · short history · 35/55 scored rounds
Score (35/55)
6.5
Avg return
0.72%
xAI
Grok 4.6 xAI · short history · 6/55 scored rounds
Score (6/55)
3.3
Avg return
0.63%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · short history · 50/55 scored rounds
Score (50/55)
-1.2
Avg return
-0.12%
OpenAI
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · short history · 49/55 scored rounds
Score (49/55)
-2.8
Avg return
-0.25%
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · short history · 35/55 scored rounds
Score (35/55)
-5.0
Avg return
-0.45%
Short history: models missing resolved rounds are shown but cannot lead the full-history score.
Scope

What This Scorecard Includes

This all-history view can include unequal model histories. Use Benchmark Comparison Sets for the fair headline ranking where every model has the exact same included rounds.

Compare cohorts Comparison sets