Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 78.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-14 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260903-weekly
36,565 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Metals and Mining (XME)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- Decision date: 2026-09-03
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-04T01:30:44Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-04T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-09-04
- Exit date: 2026-09-14
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Market Briefing — September 3, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-09-04T01:30:44Z**. Decision date: **September 3, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. market close and rates
- Associated Press reported that on September 3 the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.4%. It reported gains of 2.7% for Microsoft, 1.0% for Apple, 3.0% for Meta Platforms, and 1.8% for Nvidia.
- Associated Press reported September 3 settlements of $95.52 a barrel for Brent crude, down 0.1%, and $91.30 for U.S. crude, up 0.3%.
- The U.S. Treasury's September 3 par-yield table listed 3.83% at one month, 3.95% at one year, 4.34% at two years, 4.52% at five years, 4.77% at ten years, and 5.25% at thirty years. Treasury's long-term real-rate average was 2.92%.
- Reuters reported the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% to 649.1 on September 3. Reuters also reported the yen about 2% stronger against the dollar and spot gold up about 2% to $4,473.40 during the U.S. session.
## Monetary policy
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said September 3 that he was inclined to support no rate change at the September meeting if incoming inflation data showed cooling, while a hot reading could make him consider an increase. Associated Press reported that he did not provide forward guidance.
- The Federal Reserve scheduled an FOMC meeting for September 15–16, with a statement, press conference, and Summary of Economic Projections on September 16. The scheduled blackout period is September 5–17.
- The Federal Reserve's August Beige Book, posted September 2 and based on information collected on or before August 24, said economic activity increased modestly since early July. Ten districts reported slight-to-moderate growth and two reported no change. Consumer spending grew slightly on balance, employment was generally stable to modestly higher, and prices rose across districts. The report described a positive general outlook but mixed sector sentiment and heightened uncertainty around energy prices, policy, and international conflict.
- The European Central Bank scheduled a monetary-policy meeting for September 9–10 and a press conference for September 10. The Bank of Japan scheduled its next policy meeting for September 17–18. No decision from either meeting was available at the cutoff.
## Employment and wages
- ADP reported September 2 that private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest monthly pace since January. Goods-producing employment fell 10,000, including 17,000 fewer manufacturing jobs. Service employment rose 48,000, including a 45,000 increase in education and health services. July's total was revised to 46,000 from 44,000.
- ADP reported August median base-pay growth of 3.2% from a year earlier for all workers, 3.0% for job stayers, and 4.7% for job changers. Median gross pay rose 4.7% overall, 4.4% for stayers, and 7.3% for changers.
- The Labor Department reported 206,000 initial unemployment claims for the week ended August 29, up 2,000 from the prior week's revised level. The four-week average was 207,250. Continuing claims were 1.779 million for the week ended August 22 and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- BLS reported that July job openings were little changed at 7.3 million. Hires and total separations were each 5.1 million; quits were 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges were 1.7 million. June openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 52,881 announced U.S. job cuts in August, up 58% from July and down 38% from a year earlier. Announced hiring plans totaled 12,325.
- The August U.S. Employment Situation is scheduled for September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, after this briefing's cutoff. Its results were unknown at the cutoff.
## Activity, productivity, and trade
- ISM reported an August Services PMI of 55.4, up from 54.1 in July. Business Activity was 61.7, New Orders 60.9, Employment 47.8, Prices 72.6, Backlog of Orders 55.6, and Supplier Deliveries 51.3.
- ISM reported an August Manufacturing PMI of 54.6, down from 55.6 in July. New Orders were 53.7, Production 58.3, Employment 51.2, Supplier Deliveries 59.3, Inventories 50.6, Prices 71.1, and Backlogs 51.8.
- BLS revised second-quarter nonfarm business productivity to a 1.4% annual rate. Output rose 1.7% and hours rose 0.3%; productivity was 2.2% higher than a year earlier. Unit labor costs increased at a 1.2% annual rate and 1.4% year over year. Manufacturing productivity rose at a 2.4% annual rate and manufacturing unit labor costs declined 0.3%.
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2% and real GDI rose 2.2%. The gross domestic purchases price index rose at a 5.8% annual rate; the PCE price index rose 5.3% and its core measure rose 3.6%.
- BEA and Census reported that the July U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit increased to $88.6 billion from a revised $71.2 billion in June. Exports fell $2.1 billion to $310.7 billion and imports rose $15.3 billion to $399.3 billion. The goods deficit was $119.6 billion and the services surplus was $31.0 billion. Capital-goods imports rose $14.4 billion.
## Inflation, spending, and housing
- BLS reported that July CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year over year. Shelter rose 0.1% in July. Energy fell 1.5% for the month and was 14.7% higher than a year earlier.
- BEA reported that July personal income rose 0.4%, disposable income rose 0.5%, and nominal PCE rose 0.2%. Real PCE was little changed and real disposable income rose 0.4%. The PCE and core PCE price indexes each rose 0.2% for the month; year-over-year rates were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. The saving rate was 3.0%.
- Census estimated July retail and food-services sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June with uncertainty of plus or minus 0.4 percentage point, and up 5.0% from a year earlier with uncertainty of plus or minus 0.5 percentage point.
- Census estimated July housing starts at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from June with uncertainty of plus or minus 9.5%. Permits were 1.443 million, up 5.0%. Single-family starts were 808,000, down 9.9%; Census marked that monthly change as not statistically significant at its stated confidence level.
## Energy, geopolitics, and international data
- Associated Press reported September 3 that Iran fired missiles toward Kuwait and that Kuwaiti defenses intercepted them. It also reported recent U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket launchers on Hormuz Island. The conflict remained active at the cutoff.
- OPEC reported that seven OPEC+ countries planned a 188,000-barrel-per-day September production adjustment from earlier voluntary adjustments. The group scheduled its next monthly meeting for September 6.
- EIA's latest weekly petroleum report was released September 2 for the week ended August 28. Because of the September 7 federal holiday, EIA scheduled its following release for September 10 at noon ET.
- Eurostat's flash estimate put August euro-area inflation at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July. Energy inflation was estimated at 14.3%, services at 3.0%, non-energy industrial goods at 1.2%, and food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.2%.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported an official August manufacturing PMI of 49.8, up from 49.2. Production was 50.4, new orders 50.6, employment 48.7, and raw-material inventories 48.1. The official non-manufacturing index was 49.0 and the composite output index was 49.5.
## Corporate releases and dated events
- Broadcom reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% from a year earlier. GAAP operating income was $16.0 billion and GAAP diluted EPS was $2.68. Cash from operations was $14.2 billion, capital expenditure was $0.5 billion, and company-defined free cash flow was $13.7 billion. Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, up 221% year over year and 54% sequentially. It forecast fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $34.8 billion and a company-defined non-GAAP operating margin of about 66%.
- Oracle scheduled fiscal first-quarter 2027 results for September 10 after the market close. Adobe scheduled its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings call for September 10. Adobe also announced that Anil Chakravarthy would become president and CEO and Shantanu Narayen executive chair effective December 1.
- Scheduled U.S. releases within the one-week scoring window include the August Employment Situation on September 4; consumer credit on September 8; quarterly services on September 9; PPI, wholesale trade, and the delayed petroleum report on September 10; and CPI, real earnings, Financial Accounts, and business-formation data on September 11. U.S. markets are closed September 7 for Labor Day.
- Later events within the one-month window include the FOMC meeting on September 15–16; retail sales, business inventories, and import/export prices on September 16; housing starts on September 17; industrial production and state employment on September 18; international transactions and new-home sales on September 24; durable goods on September 25; JOLTS on September 29; Q2 GDP revisions, August PCE inflation and income/spending, and advance trade/inventory data on September 30; construction spending and ISM Manufacturing on October 1; and the September U.S. Employment Situation and August factory orders on October 2.
All scheduled-event outcomes were unknown at the cutoff. Dates may be revised by the publishing institutions. Price history in the mechanical full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-03-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-03'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-04T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-a6569134c151
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-04T01:34:01.408415+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-04'
exit_date: '2026-09-14'
created_at: '2026-09-04T01:34:01.408415+00:00'
notes: >-
Fresh September 3, 2026 research; no prior input report used. Entry is the next
eligible NYSE session. Exit is the fifth post-entry NYSE session; September 7
is the Labor Day market holiday.# CapitalBench Market Briefing — September 3, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-09-04T01:30:44Z**. Decision date: **September 3, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. market close and rates
- Associated Press reported that on September 3 the S&P 500 rose 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%, and the Nasdaq composite rose 1.4%. It reported gains of 2.7% for Microsoft, 1.0% for Apple, 3.0% for Meta Platforms, and 1.8% for Nvidia.
- Associated Press reported September 3 settlements of $95.52 a barrel for Brent crude, down 0.1%, and $91.30 for U.S. crude, up 0.3%.
- The U.S. Treasury's September 3 par-yield table listed 3.83% at one month, 3.95% at one year, 4.34% at two years, 4.52% at five years, 4.77% at ten years, and 5.25% at thirty years. Treasury's long-term real-rate average was 2.92%.
- Reuters reported the pan-European STOXX 600 up 0.5% to 649.1 on September 3. Reuters also reported the yen about 2% stronger against the dollar and spot gold up about 2% to $4,473.40 during the U.S. session.
## Monetary policy
- Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said September 3 that he was inclined to support no rate change at the September meeting if incoming inflation data showed cooling, while a hot reading could make him consider an increase. Associated Press reported that he did not provide forward guidance.
- The Federal Reserve scheduled an FOMC meeting for September 15–16, with a statement, press conference, and Summary of Economic Projections on September 16. The scheduled blackout period is September 5–17.
- The Federal Reserve's August Beige Book, posted September 2 and based on information collected on or before August 24, said economic activity increased modestly since early July. Ten districts reported slight-to-moderate growth and two reported no change. Consumer spending grew slightly on balance, employment was generally stable to modestly higher, and prices rose across districts. The report described a positive general outlook but mixed sector sentiment and heightened uncertainty around energy prices, policy, and international conflict.
- The European Central Bank scheduled a monetary-policy meeting for September 9–10 and a press conference for September 10. The Bank of Japan scheduled its next policy meeting for September 17–18. No decision from either meeting was available at the cutoff.
## Employment and wages
- ADP reported September 2 that private employers added 38,000 jobs in August, the slowest monthly pace since January. Goods-producing employment fell 10,000, including 17,000 fewer manufacturing jobs. Service employment rose 48,000, including a 45,000 increase in education and health services. July's total was revised to 46,000 from 44,000.
- ADP reported August median base-pay growth of 3.2% from a year earlier for all workers, 3.0% for job stayers, and 4.7% for job changers. Median gross pay rose 4.7% overall, 4.4% for stayers, and 7.3% for changers.
- The Labor Department reported 206,000 initial unemployment claims for the week ended August 29, up 2,000 from the prior week's revised level. The four-week average was 207,250. Continuing claims were 1.779 million for the week ended August 22 and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- BLS reported that July job openings were little changed at 7.3 million. Hires and total separations were each 5.1 million; quits were 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges were 1.7 million. June openings were revised down by 177,000 to 7.2 million.
- Challenger, Gray & Christmas counted 52,881 announced U.S. job cuts in August, up 58% from July and down 38% from a year earlier. Announced hiring plans totaled 12,325.
- The August U.S. Employment Situation is scheduled for September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, after this briefing's cutoff. Its results were unknown at the cutoff.
## Activity, productivity, and trade
- ISM reported an August Services PMI of 55.4, up from 54.1 in July. Business Activity was 61.7, New Orders 60.9, Employment 47.8, Prices 72.6, Backlog of Orders 55.6, and Supplier Deliveries 51.3.
- ISM reported an August Manufacturing PMI of 54.6, down from 55.6 in July. New Orders were 53.7, Production 58.3, Employment 51.2, Supplier Deliveries 59.3, Inventories 50.6, Prices 71.1, and Backlogs 51.8.
- BLS revised second-quarter nonfarm business productivity to a 1.4% annual rate. Output rose 1.7% and hours rose 0.3%; productivity was 2.2% higher than a year earlier. Unit labor costs increased at a 1.2% annual rate and 1.4% year over year. Manufacturing productivity rose at a 2.4% annual rate and manufacturing unit labor costs declined 0.3%.
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2% and real GDI rose 2.2%. The gross domestic purchases price index rose at a 5.8% annual rate; the PCE price index rose 5.3% and its core measure rose 3.6%.
- BEA and Census reported that the July U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit increased to $88.6 billion from a revised $71.2 billion in June. Exports fell $2.1 billion to $310.7 billion and imports rose $15.3 billion to $399.3 billion. The goods deficit was $119.6 billion and the services surplus was $31.0 billion. Capital-goods imports rose $14.4 billion.
## Inflation, spending, and housing
- BLS reported that July CPI rose 0.1% for the month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% year over year. Shelter rose 0.1% in July. Energy fell 1.5% for the month and was 14.7% higher than a year earlier.
- BEA reported that July personal income rose 0.4%, disposable income rose 0.5%, and nominal PCE rose 0.2%. Real PCE was little changed and real disposable income rose 0.4%. The PCE and core PCE price indexes each rose 0.2% for the month; year-over-year rates were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. The saving rate was 3.0%.
- Census estimated July retail and food-services sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June with uncertainty of plus or minus 0.4 percentage point, and up 5.0% from a year earlier with uncertainty of plus or minus 0.5 percentage point.
- Census estimated July housing starts at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from June with uncertainty of plus or minus 9.5%. Permits were 1.443 million, up 5.0%. Single-family starts were 808,000, down 9.9%; Census marked that monthly change as not statistically significant at its stated confidence level.
## Energy, geopolitics, and international data
- Associated Press reported September 3 that Iran fired missiles toward Kuwait and that Kuwaiti defenses intercepted them. It also reported recent U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket launchers on Hormuz Island. The conflict remained active at the cutoff.
- OPEC reported that seven OPEC+ countries planned a 188,000-barrel-per-day September production adjustment from earlier voluntary adjustments. The group scheduled its next monthly meeting for September 6.
- EIA's latest weekly petroleum report was released September 2 for the week ended August 28. Because of the September 7 federal holiday, EIA scheduled its following release for September 10 at noon ET.
- Eurostat's flash estimate put August euro-area inflation at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July. Energy inflation was estimated at 14.3%, services at 3.0%, non-energy industrial goods at 1.2%, and food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.2%.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported an official August manufacturing PMI of 49.8, up from 49.2. Production was 50.4, new orders 50.6, employment 48.7, and raw-material inventories 48.1. The official non-manufacturing index was 49.0 and the composite output index was 49.5.
## Corporate releases and dated events
- Broadcom reported fiscal third-quarter revenue of $29.6 billion, up 86% from a year earlier. GAAP operating income was $16.0 billion and GAAP diluted EPS was $2.68. Cash from operations was $14.2 billion, capital expenditure was $0.5 billion, and company-defined free cash flow was $13.7 billion. Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion, up 221% year over year and 54% sequentially. It forecast fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $34.8 billion and a company-defined non-GAAP operating margin of about 66%.
- Oracle scheduled fiscal first-quarter 2027 results for September 10 after the market close. Adobe scheduled its fiscal third-quarter 2026 earnings call for September 10. Adobe also announced that Anil Chakravarthy would become president and CEO and Shantanu Narayen executive chair effective December 1.
- Scheduled U.S. releases within the one-week scoring window include the August Employment Situation on September 4; consumer credit on September 8; quarterly services on September 9; PPI, wholesale trade, and the delayed petroleum report on September 10; and CPI, real earnings, Financial Accounts, and business-formation data on September 11. U.S. markets are closed September 7 for Labor Day.
- Later events within the one-month window include the FOMC meeting on September 15–16; retail sales, business inventories, and import/export prices on September 16; housing starts on September 17; industrial production and state employment on September 18; international transactions and new-home sales on September 24; durable goods on September 25; JOLTS on September 29; Q2 GDP revisions, August PCE inflation and income/spending, and advance trade/inventory data on September 30; construction spending and ISM Manufacturing on October 1; and the September U.S. Employment Situation and August factory orders on October 2.
All scheduled-event outcomes were unknown at the cutoff. Dates may be revised by the publishing institutions. Price history in the mechanical full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "ce9066cc1f09105feac18829716a3a2ddace4b60e820b2902c5308e830d121ca",
"manifest.yaml": "f39ddff1eec2623dfa1a065f952f1b88871d8b316104960ab429760f5417a8b9",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "e11640e5d23c252392c7d83e6f63a966268dd94e80d7ee0c5e6c47638831a673",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "5b9b593af7e70b780683ea39a66aa5a1a6d0c37a7bdba393c36c0334037865bb",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "648ee501a7b7b5df3cb6aef9949acdaf98cd8035a88b3d13ef06d843dbe95795",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "220e86adb7c77a8ee6315e3ecf8c5516cd5b65934ac6376af4e6733ee34ee102",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "3c751e5781185403f192fd026e2debbd2342069224a83509e3292def5476ffaa",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "fade6d4e9ac0cf599867c1cab05958c95db0c87522c52ac380da272da1247875",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-03-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
The three selections are recent weekly losers with strong prior trends and light-volume pullbacks: metals/mining and silver benefit from an inflationary, geopolitically stressed backdrop with gold and broad commodities firm, while semiconductors were sold despite Broadcom's exceptional AI results and a strong mega-cap tech tape. Probabilities are only modestly above 55% given heavy event risk. Momentum spikes in oil and Brazil, and deteriorating trends in solar, cyber and munis, are ranked below SPY.
SPY is near its 52-week high with low realized vol while breadth is narrow (RSP lagging by 0.9% over 5 sessions) and only 41% of assets were positive in the last week. Macro is stagflation-tinged: PCE inflation 3.7%, ISM prices above 70, Fed's Waller open to a hike, 10y at 4.77%, oil up 24% in a month amid an active Iran conflict. The scoring window contains payrolls, PPI, CPI, OPEC+ and Oracle/Adobe earnings with the Fed in blackout, so event risk is high. Recent weekly losers in semis, metals, silver and biotech sit on strong prior trends and look like temporary pullbacks; oil and Brazil are momentum spikes with thin fundamental support at the horizon.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot August payrolls or CPI/PPI prints raise hike odds, lifting real yields and hitting silver, miners and high-beta semis simultaneously",
"De-escalation in the Iran conflict or a dovish OPEC+ outcome unwinds the commodity and safe-haven bid",
"Oracle or Adobe results on Sept 10 disappoint and drag the broader tech/semiconductor complex",
"High-beta selections (SMH beta 2.9, XME 1.9) amplify any broad market drawdown from near-record highs"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +9.73% versus -4.02% recent active pullback; highest quality score in slate at 0.744",
"Volume z -0.79 indicates pullback occurred on light volume, not distribution",
"Broad commodities at 52-week high and gold up ~2% on Sept 3 supports mining complex"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +11.78% with recent -3.81% pullback; quality score 0.736",
"Spot gold rose ~2% on Sept 3 and yen strengthened ~2%, signaling safe-haven bid amid Iran conflict",
"Inflation prints (PCE 3.7%, ISM prices >70) support real-asset demand; CPI/PPI due in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B up 221% YoY and guided Q4 revenue to ~$34.8B",
"Recent active -3.83% on light volume (z -0.97) despite Nvidia +1.8% and Nasdaq +1.4% on Sept 3",
"Beta 2.9 to SPY makes it a high-payoff vehicle if the Sept 3 tech rally continues through Oracle results Sept 10"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +9.78% and only -3.05% from 52-week high; quality score 0.737",
"Healthcare sector prior active +4.35% and rose 1.59% over 3 sessions, supporting sector tailwind",
"Low SPY correlation (0.33) offers diversification but rising 10y yield at 4.77% is a headwind for long-duration biotech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Within 0.61% of 52-week high after +1.1% on Sept 3",
"Low 21-session volatility at 8.10%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +23.10% and recent +2.07%; still -35% from 52-week high",
"No in-window catalyst in briefing; 43.8% vol makes it a coin flip with fat tails"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO up 9.3% over 5 sessions and 23.7% over 21; Iran fired missiles at Kuwait and U.S. struck Hormuz Island launchers",
"OPEC+ meets Sept 6 with 188k bpd adjustment already announced; Brent settled -0.1% on Sept 3 despite conflict",
"Delayed EIA report Sept 10 and any de-escalation could unwind the geopolitical premium quickly"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +30.15% with recent active only +0.53%, suggesting fading momentum",
"Highest vol in slate at 56%; -46.9% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.65 with -0.78% 3-session return; prior active +4.14%",
"Low SPY correlation 0.11 and 11.5% vol; inflation backdrop supportive but no specific ag catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.82% over 3 sessions on elevated volume (z 0.56), while software fell 2.76% with 41% vol",
"Software/cyber weakness coincided with a broader tech rally on Sept 3, indicating idiosyncratic selling rather than beta",
"Oracle and Adobe results Sept 10 are software-sentiment catalysts with two-sided risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+5.83% in 3 sessions on volume z 1.45 but prior active -1.14% and lowest quality score in slate at 0.137",
"Oil/commodity rally is a tailwind but no Brazil-specific catalyst in briefing; short spikes tend to mean-revert"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.77% over 3 sessions on volume z 1.92 as 10y yield reached 4.77% and 30y 5.25%",
"Waller open to a hike on hot inflation; CPI and PPI in window create duration risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.33% on top of prior active -3.15%; -35.45% from 52-week high and 11.17% drawdown",
"Lowest prior active rank in universe (0.045) and quality score 0.349; rising real rates (2.92%) hurt capital-intensive clean energy"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 30,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near its 52-week high with low realized vol while breadth is narrow (RSP lagging by 0.9% over 5 sessions) and only 41% of assets were positive in the last week. Macro is stagflation-tinged: PCE inflation 3.7%, ISM prices above 70, Fed's Waller open to a hike, 10y at 4.77%, oil up 24% in a month amid an active Iran conflict. The scoring window contains payrolls, PPI, CPI, OPEC+ and Oracle/Adobe earnings with the Fed in blackout, so event risk is high. Recent weekly losers in semis, metals, silver and biotech sit on strong prior trends and look like temporary pullbacks; oil and Brazil are momentum spikes with thin fundamental support at the horizon.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The three selections are recent weekly losers with strong prior trends and light-volume pullbacks: metals/mining and silver benefit from an inflationary, geopolitically stressed backdrop with gold and broad commodities firm, while semiconductors were sold despite Broadcom's exceptional AI results and a strong mega-cap tech tape. Probabilities are only modestly above 55% given heavy event risk. Momentum spikes in oil and Brazil, and deteriorating trends in solar, cyber and munis, are ranked below SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near its 52-week high with low realized vol while breadth is narrow (RSP lagging by 0.9% over 5 sessions) and only 41% of assets were positive in the last week. Macro is stagflation-tinged: PCE inflation 3.7%, ISM prices above 70, Fed's Waller open to a hike, 10y at 4.77%, oil up 24% in a month amid an active Iran conflict. The scoring window contains payrolls, PPI, CPI, OPEC+ and Oracle/Adobe earnings with the Fed in blackout, so event risk is high. Recent weekly losers in semis, metals, silver and biotech sit on strong prior trends and look like temporary pullbacks; oil and Brazil are momentum spikes with thin fundamental support at the horizon.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29518,
"latency_seconds": 49.68939929595217,
"output_tokens": 3980,
"total_tokens": 33498
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Ranked leaders are pullbacks within intact strong prior trends: silver and metals-mining both combine top-decile prior active returns with sharp one-week relative declines while gold rallied 2% in the decision session, and biotech pairs a +9.78% prior active trend with a modest -2.56% pullback near its 52-week high. Extended continuation trades (oil, Brazil, crypto) get no overreaction label because their edge rests mainly on recent price strength. Cybersecurity and solar show persistent weakness rather than temporary dislocation, so they are excluded despite deep drawdowns.
Equities rallied into the decision date with strong AI capex evidence (Broadcom AI revenue +221% y/y), but breadth is weak (positive asset share 40.6% over 5 sessions, RSP -0.90% vs SPY). Macro is stagflationary at the margin: ADP only 38k, GDP 1.5%, CPI 3.4% with energy +14.7% y/y, and long yields at 4.77%/5.25%. The window contains payrolls (Sep 4), PPI (Sep 10), CPI (Sep 11), plus an FOMC blackout, so macro-data risk dominates and duration/defensive trades have limited edge. Precious metals and mining pulled back hard after a very strong prior trend (silver prior active +11.8%, gold +8.3%) alongside a 2% gold rally reported in the session, which is the cleanest overreaction setup. Oil and Brazil are extended continuation trades with OPEC+ meeting Sep 6 and are less reliable.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"cost_usd": 0.23952500000000002,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Payrolls (Sep 4), PPI (Sep 10), and CPI (Sep 11) land inside the window and can reprice real rates, hitting precious metals and miners hard",
"Precious-metals pullback may extend if the dollar firms or yields rise further from 4.77% ten-year",
"High-beta reversal picks (silver 38.5% vol, XME 38.4% vol) can lose more than SPY on a broad risk-off week",
"Iran-Gulf conflict escalation or the OPEC+ Sep 6 meeting could drive an energy-led rotation away from the selected names",
"Biotech is event-sensitive to idiosyncratic clinical and financing news within a single week"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.81% after prior active +11.78%",
"Spot gold reported up about 2% to $4,473.40 in the September 3 session",
"Quality evidence score 0.736 with high prior-trend rank"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.02% versus prior active +9.73%",
"Highest quality evidence score in universe at 0.744",
"Shallow 21-session drawdown of -5.88% despite the pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +9.78% with recent active -2.56%",
"Only -3.05% from 52-week high and shallow drawdown -4.23%",
"Healthcare sector prior active +4.35%, recent active +0.71%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.83% with volume z -0.97",
"Broadcom AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B, up 221% y/y, Q4 guide ~$34.8B",
"Beta to SPY 2.93 and -17.39% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +9.29% over 5 sessions and +23.69% over 21",
"Iran-Kuwait missile exchange active at cutoff; OPEC+ meets September 6",
"Brent settled $95.52, down 0.1%, signaling stalling momentum"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +6.36% with volume z +1.45",
"Prior active -1.14%, so trend support is short-lived",
"Lowest quality evidence score among slate at 0.137"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +23.10% and recent active +2.07%",
"Shallow drawdown -3.38% but -34.98% from 52-week high",
"Volatility 43.8% with SPY beta 1.19"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -4.82% and active -5.70%, deepest in slate",
"Volatility 41.05% and drawdown -9.53% with rising volume z +0.56",
"Prior active only +3.13%, so pullback is large relative to trend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.15% but recent active only +0.53%",
"Highest volatility in universe at 56.05%",
"-46.86% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +2.65 with low volatility 11.54%",
"Recent active +0.67%, prior active +4.14%",
"Near 52-week high at -1.36%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 rose 1.1% on September 3",
"Only -0.61% from 52-week high",
"Volatility 8.10% is the low end of equity options"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -1.31% with volume z +1.92",
"30-year par yield 5.25% pressuring duration",
"Volatility only 3.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -3.15% and recent active -4.33%, persistent weakness",
"-35.45% from 52-week high, drawdown -11.17%",
"Lowest-tier quality evidence 0.349 with prior trend rank 0.045"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 30,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Equities rallied into the decision date with strong AI capex evidence (Broadcom AI revenue +221% y/y), but breadth is weak (positive asset share 40.6% over 5 sessions, RSP -0.90% vs SPY). Macro is stagflationary at the margin: ADP only 38k, GDP 1.5%, CPI 3.4% with energy +14.7% y/y, and long yields at 4.77%/5.25%. The window contains payrolls (Sep 4), PPI (Sep 10), CPI (Sep 11), plus an FOMC blackout, so macro-data risk dominates and duration/defensive trades have limited edge. Precious metals and mining pulled back hard after a very strong prior trend (silver prior active +11.8%, gold +8.3%) alongside a 2% gold rally reported in the session, which is the cleanest overreaction setup. Oil and Brazil are extended continuation trades with OPEC+ meeting Sep 6 and are less reliable.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"BIOTECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Ranked leaders are pullbacks within intact strong prior trends: silver and metals-mining both combine top-decile prior active returns with sharp one-week relative declines while gold rallied 2% in the decision session, and biotech pairs a +9.78% prior active trend with a modest -2.56% pullback near its 52-week high. Extended continuation trades (oil, Brazil, crypto) get no overreaction label because their edge rests mainly on recent price strength. Cybersecurity and solar show persistent weakness rather than temporary dislocation, so they are excluded despite deep drawdowns.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Equities rallied into the decision date with strong AI capex evidence (Broadcom AI revenue +221% y/y), but breadth is weak (positive asset share 40.6% over 5 sessions, RSP -0.90% vs SPY). Macro is stagflationary at the margin: ADP only 38k, GDP 1.5%, CPI 3.4% with energy +14.7% y/y, and long yields at 4.77%/5.25%. The window contains payrolls (Sep 4), PPI (Sep 10), CPI (Sep 11), plus an FOMC blackout, so macro-data risk dominates and duration/defensive trades have limited edge. Precious metals and mining pulled back hard after a very strong prior trend (silver prior active +11.8%, gold +8.3%) alongside a 2% gold rally reported in the session, which is the cleanest overreaction setup. Oil and Brazil are extended continuation trades with OPEC+ meeting Sep 6 and are less reliable.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.23952500000000002,
"input_tokens": 29510,
"latency_seconds": 43.15005288005341,
"output_tokens": 3679,
"total_tokens": 33189
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks but have strong underlying fundamentals or high volatility that could lead to a sharp rebound.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming employment report and FOMC meeting add uncertainty.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The upcoming employment report could cause market volatility.",
"Uncertainty surrounding the upcoming FOMC meeting could impact interest rate-sensitive sectors."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.82% suggests a potential overreaction.",
"High volatility of 41.05% indicates potential for a sharp rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -4.33% indicates a pullback.",
"Distance from 52-week high is -35.45%, suggesting room for recovery."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -4.02% despite a strong prior active return of 9.73%.",
"High quality score of 0.744 supports a potential rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.83% suggests a pullback.",
"Broadcom reported strong AI semiconductor revenue growth."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.81% despite a strong prior active return of 11.78%.",
"High quality score of 0.736."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior active return of 30.15%.",
"High volatility of 56.05%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior active return of 23.10%.",
"Recent return of 3.76%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 6.28% and prior active return of 13.00%.",
"OPEC+ planned a production adjustment."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 5.83%.",
"High volume z-score of 1.45."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.56% despite a strong prior active return of 9.78%.",
"High quality score of 0.737."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z-score of 2.65.",
"Low volatility of 11.54%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z-score of 1.92.",
"Low volatility of 3.02%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 30,
"SOLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming employment report and FOMC meeting add uncertainty.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks but have strong underlying fundamentals or high volatility that could lead to a sharp rebound.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The upcoming employment report and FOMC meeting add uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 19.808451498975046,
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Favor high-quality pullback reversals with independent commodity, geopolitical, AI, or scheduled-earnings support. Avoid treating sharp oil, crypto, and Brazil gains as sufficient standalone evidence, while keeping SPY ahead of candidates showing persistent relative deterioration.
Breadth is weak despite a rising SPY, while commodity and technology pullbacks coexist with geopolitical and inflation catalysts. The employment, PPI, CPI, OPEC+, ECB, and earnings calendar creates unusually high one-week event risk.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 4 employment data or September 11 CPI could sharply reprice rates and equity factors.",
"A rapid de-escalation in the Iran conflict could reverse precious-metals and mining support.",
"Oracle or Adobe results could disappoint and deepen the software pullback.",
"Thin post-holiday trading and high volatility could overwhelm cross-sectional reversal signals."
],
"metadata": {
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{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 9.73% before a 4.02% recent active pullback.",
"Quality evidence score was slate-high at 0.744.",
"Active geopolitical conflict and elevated commodity inflation provide near-term support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Gold had an 8.31% prior active return followed by a 3.18% active pullback.",
"Reuters reported spot gold up about 2% during the September 3 U.S. session.",
"Iran-Kuwait missile activity remained active at the cutoff."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
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"rank": 2,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Software had an 8.72% prior active return and a 3.32% recent active pullback.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.711.",
"Oracle and Adobe have scheduled releases on September 10 within the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
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{
"evidence": [
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"Quality evidence score was 0.737.",
"Its 21-session drawdown was a relatively contained 4.23%."
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.7,
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"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 11.78% before a 3.81% active pullback.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.736.",
"Geopolitical conflict and elevated inflation support precious-metals demand."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
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"rank": 5,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was negative 5.70% after a positive 3.13% prior active return.",
"Its recent pullback percentile was 1.000.",
"Volatility was 41.05% and the drawdown reached 9.53%, limiting conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
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"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was negative 3.83% while prior active return remained positive.",
"Broadcom reported 221% year-over-year AI semiconductor revenue growth.",
"The exposure carries a 2.93 SPY beta and a 17.39% distance from its high."
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.1,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
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"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Oil posted 9.02% recent active return and 13.00% prior active return.",
"The Iran conflict remained active at the cutoff.",
"OPEC+ scheduled a September 6 meeting after announcing a September production adjustment."
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was elevated at 2.65.",
"Prior active return was 4.14%, but recent active return was only 0.67%.",
"Low SPY correlation reduces benchmark dependence but no in-window crop catalyst was supplied."
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"SPY gained while equal-weight breadth lagged.",
"The benchmark has direct exposure to the full macro-event calendar."
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 23.10% and recent active return was 2.07%.",
"The 21-session drawdown was only 3.38%.",
"Volatility was high at 43.82%, with no specific digital-asset catalyst supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 30.15%, the strongest in the slate.",
"Volatility was 56.05%, the slate's highest.",
"No specific Ethereum catalyst within the scoring window was supplied."
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
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"mechanism": "continuation",
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 6.36% on a 1.45 volume z-score.",
"Prior active return was negative 1.14%.",
"Its quality evidence score was only 0.137."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
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"rank": 13,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"Volume z-score was elevated at 1.92.",
"Treasury yields were high across the curve, including 4.77% at ten years."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
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"mechanism": "defensive",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
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"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was negative 4.33% after a negative 3.15% prior active return.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.349.",
"The fund was 35.45% below its 52-week high with an 11.17% drawdown."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
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"rank": 15,
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}
],
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"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SOFTWARE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
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"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
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},
{
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"reason": "eligible",
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{
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},
{
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"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
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},
{
"eligible": true,
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"rank": 5,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
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},
{
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"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
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"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
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"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
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"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
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"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
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"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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}
],
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"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
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"GOLD",
"SOFTWARE"
],
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35,
35,
30
]
},
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"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Breadth is weak despite a rising SPY, while commodity and technology pullbacks coexist with geopolitical and inflation catalysts. The employment, PPI, CPI, OPEC+, ECB, and earnings calendar creates unusually high one-week event risk.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"GOLD",
"SOFTWARE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor high-quality pullback reversals with independent commodity, geopolitical, AI, or scheduled-earnings support. Avoid treating sharp oil, crypto, and Brazil gains as sufficient standalone evidence, while keeping SPY ahead of candidates showing persistent relative deterioration.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is weak despite a rising SPY, while commodity and technology pullbacks coexist with geopolitical and inflation catalysts. The employment, PPI, CPI, OPEC+, ECB, and earnings calendar creates unusually high one-week event risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}
}xai-grok-4-3
OIL, BRAZIL and BITCOIN_ETF show supported continuation with positive active returns and sufficient probability to beat SPY within the one-week window.
Commodity and select international strength contrasts with equity pullbacks and policy uncertainty ahead of FOMC and employment data.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC meeting and employment data release within window",
"Geopolitical developments in energy markets",
"Volatility in crypto and commodity prices"
],
"metadata": {
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{
"evidence": [
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"prior active 13.00%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
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"rank": 1,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"volume z 1.45"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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"rank": 2,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"IBIT recent return 3.76% with 2.07% active",
"prior active 23.10%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
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"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"recent active -2.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
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"rank": 4,
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},
{
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"prior active 9.73%"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
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"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
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"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV quality evidence score 0.736",
"prior active 11.78%"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
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"rank": 6,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY recent return 0.80%",
"horizon vol 8.10%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ETHA recent return 1.60% with 0.53% active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"DBA volume z 2.65",
"horizon vol 11.54%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"MUB volume z 1.92",
"horizon vol 3.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMH recent active -3.83%",
"52w-high distance -17.39%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CIBR recent active -5.70%",
"horizon max drawdown -9.53%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TAN 52w-high distance -35.45%",
"quality evidence score 0.349"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 27,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 27,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Commodity and select international strength contrasts with equity pullbacks and policy uncertainty ahead of FOMC and employment data.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "OIL, BRAZIL and BITCOIN_ETF show supported continuation with positive active returns and sufficient probability to beat SPY within the one-week window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Commodity and select international strength contrasts with equity pullbacks and policy uncertainty ahead of FOMC and employment data.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17192,
"latency_seconds": 14.718483089003712,
"output_tokens": 1869,
"reasoning_tokens": 650,
"total_tokens": 19711
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Rank high-quality shock pullbacks (cyber, metals/mining, silver) as overreactions with p_beat >=55 for eligibility; oil/brazil as secondary continuations but ineligible under rule; SPY fills residual given event risk and mixed breadth.
Mixed cross-section with modest SPY gains, elevated oil/geopolitics, soft labor signals ahead of jobs data, and several high-quality pullbacks in prior-strong names amid normal 5s dispersion; FOMC blackout and Labor Day shorten effective window.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August Employment Situation release Sept 4 could swing rates and risk appetite sharply",
"Active Iran/Hormuz conflict and OPEC+ Sept 6 meeting amplify oil and risk-off volatility",
"FOMC blackout and Sept 15-16 meeting uncertainty compress equity risk premia",
"High-vol names (cyber, silver, semis) can extend drawdowns if jobs hot or geopolitics escalate"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.70% vs prior active +3.13% with quality score 0.646 and max recent pullback rank 1.000",
"Horizon vol 41% and drawdown -9.53% but SPY beta 1.36 after sharp weekly drop",
"No fundamental deterioration noted in briefing beyond general tech volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.744 with prior active rank 0.925 and recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Recent active -4.02% after strong prior +9.73%",
"Volume z negative but metals linked to broader commodity strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.736, prior active rank 0.955, recent pullback 0.940 after -3.81% active",
"Gold up ~2% in session per Reuters; silver often co-moves",
"High vol 38.5% but shallow relative to prior strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.737 with prior active 0.940 and pullback rank 0.866",
"Recent active -2.56% after +9.78% prior",
"Low SPY corr 0.33 offers diversification"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.83% vs prior +0.41%, quality 0.575, pullback rank 0.955",
"Broadcom AI revenue surge and strong forecast in briefing",
"High beta 2.93 and distance to high -17%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +6.28% / active +9.02% with prior +13%, negative SPY corr",
"Iran missiles/Kuwait intercept and Hormuz strikes active; OPEC+ adjustment meeting Sept 6",
"USO 21s return 23.69%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +5.83% active +6.36% with volume z 1.45",
"Low quality 0.137 and prior active negative",
"EM commodity sensitivity amid oil strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.76% active +2.07% after strong prior +23.10%",
"Quality 0.518, high prior rank 0.985 but recent pullback weak",
"Low SPY corr 0.41"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.15% extreme, recent +1.60% active +0.53%",
"Highest prior rank 1.000 but vol 56% and deep 52w distance",
"Quality 0.541"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality low 0.349, prior active rank only 0.045 despite pullback rank 0.985",
"Recent active -4.33%, deep 52w -35%",
"No supportive catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.65 elevated but recent -0.78%, low vol 11.5%",
"Quality 0.582, prior active positive",
"Near 52w high, limited catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.92, recent -0.77% active -1.31%",
"Very low vol 3%, quality 0.559",
"Rates elevated per Treasury par yields; defensive but lagging equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark return 0.80% recent, vol 8.1%, near 52w high -0.61%",
"Positive share 40% 5s, dispersion 2.2%",
"Jobs data and FOMC blackout dominate near-term"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed cross-section with modest SPY gains, elevated oil/geopolitics, soft labor signals ahead of jobs data, and several high-quality pullbacks in prior-strong names amid normal 5s dispersion; FOMC blackout and Labor Day shorten effective window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Rank high-quality shock pullbacks (cyber, metals/mining, silver) as overreactions with p_beat >=55 for eligibility; oil/brazil as secondary continuations but ineligible under rule; SPY fills residual given event risk and mixed breadth.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed cross-section with modest SPY gains, elevated oil/geopolitics, soft labor signals ahead of jobs data, and several high-quality pullbacks in prior-strong names amid normal 5s dispersion; FOMC blackout and Labor Day shorten effective window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18230,
"latency_seconds": 50.095677629928105,
"output_tokens": 2842,
"reasoning_tokens": 491,
"total_tokens": 21563
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-week scoring is dominated by unknown NFP and CPI with SPY already near highs and low cross-asset dispersion. The highest-conviction non-SPY cases are quality pullbacks (cyber, metals, silver) after sharp 5s underperformance rather than extended oil/crypto/Brazil continuation. Even those names have high horizon vol, so beating SPY is only a modest-probability mean-reversion bet.
SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while 5s active-return dispersion is only 2.20% and equal-weight lags. The window includes unknown NFP (Sep 4) and CPI (Sep 11) plus Labor Day, so mega-cap beta is fragile. Oil and Brazil show short continuation after large moves; several high-quality names (cyber, metals, silver, biotech, semis) show sharp relative pullbacks after stronger prior windows.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August Employment Situation (Sep 4) and CPI (Sep 11) can reverse high-beta pullback trades if prints are hot, consistent with Waller’s hike-if-hot comment.",
"Hormuz/Iran conflict and the Sep 6 OPEC+ meeting can keep oil volatile and crowd out metals/silver mean reversion.",
"Labor Day short week plus Fed blackout starting Sep 5 can thin liquidity in 30-50% vol names (CIBR, XME, SLV).",
"Broadcom-supported semis and mega-cap Sep 3 rally can keep SPY concentrated leadership if equal-weight continues to lag."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -4.82% and active -5.70% versus prior active +3.13% with quality evidence score 0.646 and the highest recent-pullback rank (1.000).",
"Horizon vol 41.05% and max drawdown -9.53% with SPY beta 1.36, so a bounce is possible but noisy into NFP/CPI.",
"Distance to 52w high only -6.73%, closer than many other shock names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -4.02% after prior active +9.73% with the slate’s highest quality evidence score 0.744.",
"Quality table shows prior-active rank 0.925 and recent-pullback rank 0.970.",
"Iran/Hormuz conflict and still-elevated energy prices in the briefing can support metals sentiment even after the pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.81% after prior active +11.78% with quality evidence score 0.736.",
"Reuters reported spot gold up about 2% in the Sep 3 session while silver lagged on the 5s window.",
"High 38.50% horizon vol and -42.66% from 52w high keep the 80% range wide."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -2.56% after prior active +9.78% with quality evidence score 0.737.",
"Low SPY corr 0.33 and beta 0.72 versus the benchmark, so factor rotation into healthcare/biotech is possible if growth beta wobbles on data.",
"Only -3.05% from 52w high, limiting mean-reversion room versus deeper laggards."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.83% with quality evidence score 0.575 and recent-pullback rank 0.955.",
"Broadcom reported AI semiconductor revenue $16.7B, up 221% y/y, and guided ~$34.8B Q4 revenue, a constructive fundamental offset to the price dip.",
"SPY beta 2.93 and -17.39% from 52w high plus unknown NFP/CPI make continuation of the dip equally plausible."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +9.02% and prior active +13.00% with negative SPY corr (-0.32), so it can still beat SPY if risk-off hits equities.",
"Briefing: Iran fired missiles toward Kuwait; U.S. strikes on Hormuz Island; OPEC+ 188kbd September adjustment and Sep 6 meeting.",
"Quality evidence score only 0.466 with recent-pullback rank 0.000, so the move is extended into a holiday-shortened week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +23.10% and recent active still +2.07% with quality score 0.518.",
"SPY corr 0.41 and beta 1.19; 43.82% horizon vol.",
"-34.98% from 52w high after a strong medium-horizon run, so one-week edge versus SPY is modest."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest prior-active rank (1.000) and prior active +30.15% with still-positive recent active +0.53%.",
"Horizon vol 56.05% is the highest on the slate.",
"-46.86% from 52w high; quality score 0.541."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +5.83% and active +6.36% with volume z 1.45.",
"Quality evidence score 0.137 is the weakest on the slate (prior-active rank 0.194, pullback rank 0.015).",
"Low SPY corr 0.35 but continuation after a large short burst is fragile into U.S. data."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5s return 0.27% and 21s 0.44% with distance to 52w high only -0.61%.",
"AP: Sep 3 S&P 500 +1.1% with large-cap tech gains (MSFT, META, NVDA).",
"Window includes unknown Employment Situation Sep 4 and CPI Sep 11."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.65 is the largest on the slate but weekly return -0.78% and active only +0.67%.",
"Horizon vol 11.54% and max drawdown -1.36% imply limited excess versus SPY.",
"Quality score 0.582 with recent-pullback rank only 0.164."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -0.77% and active -1.31% with volume z 1.92.",
"Horizon vol 3.02% and beta 0.11; 10y Treasury yield 4.77% and Waller open to hike if inflation is hot.",
"Quality score 0.559; low-vol rank 0.970 but prior-active rank only 0.239."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -4.33% and prior active also -3.15%, so the weakness is not a one-window shock.",
"Quality evidence score 0.349 with prior-active rank 0.045 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.015.",
"-35.45% from 52w high and beta 2.41 versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"BIOTECH",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while 5s active-return dispersion is only 2.20% and equal-weight lags. The window includes unknown NFP (Sep 4) and CPI (Sep 11) plus Labor Day, so mega-cap beta is fragile. Oil and Brazil show short continuation after large moves; several high-quality names (cyber, metals, silver, biotech, semis) show sharp relative pullbacks after stronger prior windows.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-week scoring is dominated by unknown NFP and CPI with SPY already near highs and low cross-asset dispersion. The highest-conviction non-SPY cases are quality pullbacks (cyber, metals, silver) after sharp 5s underperformance rather than extended oil/crypto/Brazil continuation. Even those names have high horizon vol, so beating SPY is only a modest-probability mean-reversion bet.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while 5s active-return dispersion is only 2.20% and equal-weight lags. The window includes unknown NFP (Sep 4) and CPI (Sep 11) plus Labor Day, so mega-cap beta is fragile. Oil and Brazil show short continuation after large moves; several high-quality names (cyber, metals, silver, biotech, semis) show sharp relative pullbacks after stronger prior windows.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-03-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18372,
"latency_seconds": 53.072713138884865,
"output_tokens": 2908,
"reasoning_tokens": 552,
"total_tokens": 21832
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Silver (SLV)35%Semiconductors (SMH)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Silver (SLV)35%Metals and Mining (XME)35%Biotechnology (XBI)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Solar Energy (TAN)35%Metals and Mining (XME)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Gold (IAU)35%Software (IGV)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Metals and Mining (XME)35%Silver (SLV)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Metals and Mining (XME)35%Silver (SLV)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | ce9066cc1f09...30d121ca |
| manifest.yaml | f39ddff1eec2...5417a8b9 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | e11640e5d23c...8831a673 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 5b9b593af7e7...037865bb |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 648ee501a7b7...dbe95795 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 220e86adb7c7...e34ee102 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 3c751e578118...5476ffaa |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | fade6d4e9ac0...a1247875 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |