Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +31.25%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 72.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward growth and technology.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-11 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260804-clean
33,382 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-04
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-05T01:57:05Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-05T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-04
- Exit date: 2026-08-11
- Entry rule: Use the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Tuesday, August 11, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-05T01:57:05Z. Decision date: August 4, 2026. Weekly scoring window: August 4-August 11. Monthly scoring window: August 4-September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and rates
- At the August 4 close, the S&P 500 was 7,736.52, up 1.8%; the Dow was 54,085.88, up 1.7%; the Nasdaq Composite was 26,584.99, up 2.6%; and the Russell 2000 was 3,036.98, up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Dow closes were records.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude at $79.36 per barrel on August 4, down 5.3% on the day, after trading roughly between $72 and $102 during July.
- Treasury's August 4 par yields were 4.04% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.33% at five years, 4.63% at ten years, and 5.18% at thirty years. Treasury states that these yields are interpolated from indicative bid-side quotations observed near 3:30 p.m. ET.
## U.S. policy and economic releases
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%.
- BEA's advance estimate put annualized real Q2 GDP growth at 1.5%, following 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index rose 5.7%; headline and core PCE prices rose at annual rates of 5.1% and 3.4%. The estimate is scheduled for revision on August 26.
- In June, personal income and disposable income each rose 0.2%; current-dollar PCE rose 0.3%; real PCE rose 0.4%; and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% month over month and rose 3.7% year over year; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over the year. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% higher than a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% month over month and rose 5.5% year over year. June figures are preliminary.
- June payroll employment rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%; BLS described both as little changed.
- June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million. Hires were 5.3 million, separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million.
## Business, consumer, housing, and trade releases
- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, up from 53.3. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, and prices 71.1.
- June industrial production rose 0.1% and was 1.1% above a year earlier. Manufacturing output was unchanged. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June figures are preliminary.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. Census said the monthly change was not statistically distinguishable from zero at 90% confidence.
- July Consumer Confidence was 90.8, down 1.4 points. The Present Situation Index was 114.9 and the Expectations Index was 74.7. The preliminary survey cutoff was July 22.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from May; single-family starts were 895,000, down 0.2%. Permits were 1.367 million, down 3.0%. Census reported wide confidence intervals.
- The June goods-and-services trade deficit was $73.3 billion, down $4.4 billion from revised May. Exports were $314.7 billion and imports $388.0 billion. Year to date, the deficit was 33.8% below the same 2025 period.
## Global, energy, and geopolitical releases
- The IMF's July forecast projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, U.S. growth of 2.3% in 2026, euro-area growth of 0.9%, and advanced-economy growth of 1.7%. The IMF stated that global disinflation had stalled. These values are forecasts.
- On July 23, the ECB held its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. It described uncertainty around the Middle East energy shock as high.
- The IEA's July assessment reported June Gulf oil exports, including bypass routes, at 16.1 million barrels per day versus a prewar average of 24 million. It reported June global refinery runs 6 million barrels per day below a year earlier.
- On August 4, Associated Press reported progress in Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, said negotiations were not final, and reported a cargo ship damaged by an unknown projectile in the strait. The status remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## Scheduled events inside the scoring windows
- August 5: Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; July ISM Services PMI; Disney fiscal Q3 results; Eli Lilly Q2 results.
- August 6: BLS preliminary Q2 productivity and costs.
- August 7: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 11: weekly scoring-window adjusted close.
- August 12: BLS July CPI.
- August 13: BLS July PPI.
- August 14: Census July retail sales.
- August 18: Federal Reserve July industrial production.
- August 25: Conference Board August Consumer Confidence.
- August 26: BEA Q2 GDP second estimate, preliminary corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays.
- September 3: Census and BEA July international trade.
- September 4: BLS August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly scoring-window adjusted close.
## Final neutrality statement
These are fixed, dated datapoints and scheduled statuses available by the cutoff. They are not forecasts except where explicitly labeled, and they do not rank, recommend, interpret, or map CapitalBench choices. Complete deterministic full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and V2.2 quality evidence is supplied separately and mechanically in the model input.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-04-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-05T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-05T01:54:41.366767+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Tuesday, August 4, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Tuesday, August 11, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-04'
exit_date: '2026-08-11'
created_at: '2026-08-05T01:54:41.366767+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-05T01:57:05Z. Decision date: August 4, 2026. Weekly scoring window: August 4-August 11. Monthly scoring window: August 4-September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and rates
- At the August 4 close, the S&P 500 was 7,736.52, up 1.8%; the Dow was 54,085.88, up 1.7%; the Nasdaq Composite was 26,584.99, up 2.6%; and the Russell 2000 was 3,036.98, up 1.8%. The S&P 500 and Dow closes were records.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude at $79.36 per barrel on August 4, down 5.3% on the day, after trading roughly between $72 and $102 during July.
- Treasury's August 4 par yields were 4.04% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.33% at five years, 4.63% at ten years, and 5.18% at thirty years. Treasury states that these yields are interpolated from indicative bid-side quotations observed near 3:30 p.m. ET.
## U.S. policy and economic releases
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%.
- BEA's advance estimate put annualized real Q2 GDP growth at 1.5%, following 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index rose 5.7%; headline and core PCE prices rose at annual rates of 5.1% and 3.4%. The estimate is scheduled for revision on August 26.
- In June, personal income and disposable income each rose 0.2%; current-dollar PCE rose 0.3%; real PCE rose 0.4%; and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% month over month and rose 3.7% year over year; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% month over month and rose 3.5% year over year. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over the year. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% higher than a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% month over month and rose 5.5% year over year. June figures are preliminary.
- June payroll employment rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%; BLS described both as little changed.
- June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million. Hires were 5.3 million, separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million.
## Business, consumer, housing, and trade releases
- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, up from 53.3. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, and prices 71.1.
- June industrial production rose 0.1% and was 1.1% above a year earlier. Manufacturing output was unchanged. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June figures are preliminary.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. Census said the monthly change was not statistically distinguishable from zero at 90% confidence.
- July Consumer Confidence was 90.8, down 1.4 points. The Present Situation Index was 114.9 and the Expectations Index was 74.7. The preliminary survey cutoff was July 22.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, up 19.0% from May; single-family starts were 895,000, down 0.2%. Permits were 1.367 million, down 3.0%. Census reported wide confidence intervals.
- The June goods-and-services trade deficit was $73.3 billion, down $4.4 billion from revised May. Exports were $314.7 billion and imports $388.0 billion. Year to date, the deficit was 33.8% below the same 2025 period.
## Global, energy, and geopolitical releases
- The IMF's July forecast projected global growth of 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, U.S. growth of 2.3% in 2026, euro-area growth of 0.9%, and advanced-economy growth of 1.7%. The IMF stated that global disinflation had stalled. These values are forecasts.
- On July 23, the ECB held its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. It described uncertainty around the Middle East energy shock as high.
- The IEA's July assessment reported June Gulf oil exports, including bypass routes, at 16.1 million barrels per day versus a prewar average of 24 million. It reported June global refinery runs 6 million barrels per day below a year earlier.
- On August 4, Associated Press reported progress in Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes, said negotiations were not final, and reported a cargo ship damaged by an unknown projectile in the strait. The status remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## Scheduled events inside the scoring windows
- August 5: Treasury quarterly refunding announcement; July ISM Services PMI; Disney fiscal Q3 results; Eli Lilly Q2 results.
- August 6: BLS preliminary Q2 productivity and costs.
- August 7: BLS July Employment Situation.
- August 11: weekly scoring-window adjusted close.
- August 12: BLS July CPI.
- August 13: BLS July PPI.
- August 14: Census July retail sales.
- August 18: Federal Reserve July industrial production.
- August 25: Conference Board August Consumer Confidence.
- August 26: BEA Q2 GDP second estimate, preliminary corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays.
- September 3: Census and BEA July international trade.
- September 4: BLS August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly scoring-window adjusted close.
## Final neutrality statement
These are fixed, dated datapoints and scheduled statuses available by the cutoff. They are not forecasts except where explicitly labeled, and they do not rank, recommend, interpret, or map CapitalBench choices. Complete deterministic full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and V2.2 quality evidence is supplied separately and mechanically in the model input.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "8867d2beab94d6e43833c054c911d08bbab8cceafee0184e7c5b94953efd25bc",
"manifest.yaml": "7472dd996e1d766fec750eaf0f2aac5c60b3d1d3526aed27f669bde2ba04470f",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "fd01b404826ed74b028c769f0b2af7b495428d20978cd8dea424740b33e259da",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "da9dbd052d4380022786951d1cbf96911133205c9d4081501d58d3f96498212d",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "589243aec1d507067442ce29a2cf3a7b49b6febbd915be43a68f89a810e85f12",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "2b59c57cb801896c27221a85251900a3b3de0278a23a6e3e285d693bf026893e",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "900028b12d5108af3026ba0cdcb145f564cc0d8575a6b671aefe3fe5cc90bf42",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "6022171c342b89d4cf29558744059a2103ded8325d5ac74814b5ebb6adbfce23",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "1a844da9c59ab06e30e88b53a60f08b23075e0cfd4df40bd80afc8570a93c261",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Anchor in SPY with a growth tilt via NASDAQ100 riding earnings momentum, balanced by oversold defensive healthcare/low-vol mean reversion and a gold hedge against unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk and the refunding announcement.
Barbell of continuing tech strength and mean-reverting defensives around a SPY core, with gold as a geopolitical hedge into an event-heavy week (ISM services, payrolls, refunding).
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong breadth, easing oil, and firm manufacturing data sustain the uptrend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Record close 7,736.52 up 1.8% on Aug 4",
"ISM Manufacturing 55.6 up from 53.3",
"79.7% of assets positive over 5 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-off break below prior week's low on macro shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "After +4.1% in 5 sessions, hot payrolls or refunding supply could trigger consolidation",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 ISM Services, Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recovery from prior pullback with earnings momentum and falling energy prices",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.05% active return over 5 sessions after -5.16% prior active",
"Nasdaq Composite up 2.6% on Aug 4",
"Brent down 5.3% easing inflation pressure"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield spike or >3% tech drawdown intraweek",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta (1.71) makes it vulnerable to rate spikes from refunding or strong jobs data",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls; ongoing earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep oversold relative move mean-reverts, aided by Lilly earnings catalyst",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 0.97 with quality score 0.80",
"-7.2% active over 5 sessions after +4.66% prior active",
"Eli Lilly Q2 results Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Lilly miss and XLV breaking 21-day low",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Continued risk-on rotation keeps defensives lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sharp relative pullback vs solid prior trend suggests snapback if rally cools",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 0.94, prior active +3.94%",
"-6.14% active over 5 sessions",
"Quality evidence score 0.81"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY extending gains >2% with defensives flat",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Momentum-led melt-up continues, defensives lag further",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-payrolls rotation Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical risk premium plus weak dollar support gold into event-heavy week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Hormuz talks unresolved; cargo ship hit by projectile Aug 4",
"Dollar weak: UUP -1.47% over 5 sessions",
"IAU +1.31% over 5 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Finalized shipping deal plus dollar rebound",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Hormuz deal finalized and yields rise, pressuring gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz talks; Aug 5 refunding announcement"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Further de-escalation continues unwinding the war premium",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent -5.3% on Aug 4 on Hormuz talks progress",
"68.9% volatility, -17% drawdown 21s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed shipping agreement removing supply risk",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Talks collapse or strait incident escalates, spiking crude",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman negotiations status"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Earnings-driven momentum could persist",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+7.02% active over 5 sessions",
"Lowest recent pullback rank (0.015) — extended"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Failure to hold gains post-rally",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Most extended recent winner in universe; high reversal risk with no fresh catalyst",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y at 5.18%; Fed held with 3 dissents for a hike",
"Inflation elevated: core PCE 3.3% y/y",
"TLT -2.69% over 21 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot jobs report pushing long yields higher",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Refunding supply and sticky inflation keep yields elevated",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 refunding, Aug 7 payrolls"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.135,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July payrolls or hawkish refunding pushes yields up, hurting growth and gold simultaneously",
"Tech momentum reverses after a 4%+ SPY week, dragging the QQQ overweight",
"Hormuz resolution triggers a cyclical rally that leaves healthcare and low-vol lagging",
"Elevated inflation prints keep Fed hawkish, capping equity upside broadly"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Payroll or ISM shock triggering broad risk-off below prior week's low",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Record close with strong breadth (79.7% positive assets 5s) and firm ISM manufacturing; core diversified anchor.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 ISM Services, Aug 7 July payrolls, Aug 11 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Rates spike above 4.8% on 10y or tech reversal >3% intraweek",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "Strong 5-day recovery (+3.05% active) after prior pullback; earnings momentum and easing oil supports growth beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings follow-through, Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Lilly earnings miss dragging XLV below its 21-day low",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Deep recent relative pullback with top-tier quality evidence score (0.80) and Eli Lilly Q2 catalyst Aug 5; defensive ballast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 results Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued sharp growth-led rally leaving defensives lagging further",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Highest recent-pullback rank (0.94) with solid prior trend; mean-reversion candidate with low downside.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation after Aug 7 payrolls if growth fades"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hormuz agreement finalized and dollar rebound pushing gold below recent range",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Hedge against Hormuz escalation and refunding/CPI rate volatility; recent modest gain despite soft dollar backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman Hormuz talks unresolved; Aug 5 refunding announcement"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.435,
"portfolio_rationale": "Anchor in SPY with a growth tilt via NASDAQ100 riding earnings momentum, balanced by oversold defensive healthcare/low-vol mean reversion and a gold hedge against unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk and the refunding announcement.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Barbell of continuing tech strength and mean-reverting defensives around a SPY core, with gold as a geopolitical hedge into an event-heavy week (ISM services, payrolls, refunding).",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27787,
"latency_seconds": 55.81099296105094,
"output_tokens": 3633,
"total_tokens": 31420
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Anchor on SPY with a tilt to technology-and-growth clusters showing the strongest recent active returns and breadth support, while keeping cluster exposure at the 50% cap.
Core SPY plus growth/tech tilt to capture continued mega-cap leadership over a one-week window with heavy macro data flow.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record close, broad breadth, strong ISM Manufacturing 55.6",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 record close 7,736.52 up 1.8%",
"spy_return_5s 4.11%",
"positive_asset_share_5s 79.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7,550",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot jobs print lifts yields; extended after strong 5-day run",
"time_window_catalyst": "July jobs Aug 7, ISM Services Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech leadership reasserting after prior underperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLK 5s active +5.13%",
"XLK 3s +6.36%",
"beta 2.161"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK drops more than 3% on rate spike",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High vol 36.7%, rate-sensitive to jobs surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "ISM Services Aug 5, jobs Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth momentum with record close",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ 5s active +3.05%",
"Nasdaq record close up 2.6%",
"3s +5.90%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ below prior week close",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta 1.714, sensitive to yield backup",
"time_window_catalyst": "Jobs Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep pullback, defensive rotation potential",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 5s active -7.20%",
"3s -0.87%",
"high quality score 0.804"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY further",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Lagging badly in risk-on tape",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration bounce if jobs weak",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT 5s active -5.40%",
"30y yield 5.18%",
"FOMC hawkish 9-3"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield breaks above 4.75%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation, hawkish Fed, refunding supply",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding Aug 5, jobs Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Hormuz risk premium potential",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent down 5.3% to $79.36",
"XLE 3s -0.75%",
"USO 3s -9.18%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $72",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil falling sharply, Iran-Oman talks progress",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiations"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven if risk-off",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5s active -2.80%",
"iau_return_5s +1.31%",
"distance 52w high -24.5%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks recent support",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields headwind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Jobs/CPI window"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong AI-driven momentum",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH 5s active +4.59%",
"3s +6.83%",
"vol 52.7% beta 3.098"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH drops more than 5%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility, sharp reversal risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chip earnings/sentiment"
}
],
"confidence": 0.53,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.18,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Strong July jobs report Aug 7 could lift yields and hit high-beta growth",
"Tech is extended with high volatility and could mean-revert",
"Geopolitical oil/Hormuz headlines could spike risk-off"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7,550 on risk-off shift",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad large-cap momentum with record close and strong breadth; core anchor.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July jobs report Aug 7; ISM Services Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK reverses more than 3% on rate spike from strong jobs print",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent tech leadership with 5s active +5.13% and 3s +6.36%, supported by growth-stock resilience.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap tech follow-through post-earnings, ISM Services Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ falls below prior week close on rate-driven selloff",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "Large-cap growth momentum continuation with 5s active +3.05% and record Nasdaq close.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Growth-stock sentiment into jobs/CPI window"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.68,
"portfolio_rationale": "Anchor on SPY with a tilt to technology-and-growth clusters showing the strongest recent active returns and breadth support, while keeping cluster exposure at the 50% cap.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Core SPY plus growth/tech tilt to capture continued mega-cap leadership over a one-week window with heavy macro data flow.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27793,
"latency_seconds": 38.024308254010975,
"output_tokens": 2412,
"total_tokens": 30205
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
SPY just returned +4.1% in five sessions with extreme tech leadership; we keep a large benchmark core and add three high-quality-evidence, low-beta laggards (healthcare, financials, staples) that pulled back hardest on a relative basis into event-heavy week.
Barbell of SPY core plus mean-reversion defensives/financials rather than chasing semis and software that already ran 7-9% in three sessions with 30-50% volatility.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record close, broad participation, strong ISM manufacturing 55.6.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 record close 7,736.52, +1.8% on Aug 4",
"spy_return_5s +4.11%",
"positive_asset_share_5s 79.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below 21-day average on hawkish data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation (core PCE 3.3% y/y), three FOMC dissents favoring hikes, overbought 5-day move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 ISM Services, Aug 7 July Employment Situation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend plus deepest recent relative pullback historically mean-reverts.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s -7.20%, worst pullback rank 0.970",
"prior_16s_active +4.66%",
"beta_spy_63s -0.226"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by another 2% after Lilly print",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Sustained rotation into growth keeps defensives bid down.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 results Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve, benign credit (HYG +0.65% 5s), record index breadth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.732; prior active rank 0.821",
"active_return_5s -3.63%, at 52w high",
"30y yield 5.18% vs 2y 4.20% steep curve"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG turns negative and curve flattens sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Payroll weakness or credit deterioration hits banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 Treasury refunding; Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sharp relative washout against strong prior trend; low drawdown.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s -6.05%, pullback rank 0.925",
"prior_16s_active +4.91%",
"beta -0.384, drawdown only -3.03%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLP makes new relative low versus SPY midweek",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on tape and elevated goods inflation squeeze margins.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls, rotation dynamics"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Powerful AI-led momentum with beta 3.1.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s +6.83%, active_5s +4.59%",
"volatility_21s 52.69%, drawdown -17.48%",
"quality score 0.064"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Two consecutive down days versus SPY",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility, -13.9% from 52w high, weakest quality evidence; sharp giveback likely.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No scheduled sector event before Aug 11"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Gulf exports still 16.1 vs 24 mb/d prewar keeps supply risk premium.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $79.36, -5.3% on Aug 4",
"XLE active_5s -2.46% but prior_16s +9.74%",
"Iran-Oman Hormuz talks progressing"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent breaks below $75",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation headlines could push crude sharply lower.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiation headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y at 5.18%; tlt_return_21s -2.69%",
"FOMC held with three hike dissents",
"volume_zscore 2.201"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "30y yield above 5.30%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Refunding supply and 5.7% gross-domestic-purchases price index pressure long end.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 refunding announcement; Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend and risk-on tape.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"prior_16s_active +8.32% but active_5s -6.46%",
"volatility_21s 40.22%",
"-61.33% from 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Further 5% relative decline versus SPY",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"reversal_case": "Momentum already broke down in latest window; extreme volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.44,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.25,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Momentum/tech continuation extends SPY gains while low-beta laggards stay flat",
"Hot July payrolls Aug 7 hits rate-sensitive and broad equities",
"Healthcare single-name event risk from Lilly results",
"Defensive names continue de-rating in a risk-on tape"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 45,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot payrolls/hawkish repricing driving SPY below its 21-day average",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure at record highs with broad participation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 July jobs report; Aug 5 ISM Services"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued sector underperformance after Lilly results or negative policy headline",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Deep relative pullback (-7.2% 5s active) with strong prior trend and low beta; mean-reversion candidate with Lilly Q2 catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly Q2 results Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spread widening or sharp curve flattening",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "High quality-evidence score, prior positive active trend, at 52w high, steep curve supportive.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 5 Treasury refunding; Aug 7 payrolls"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Further defensive de-rating as risk appetite extends",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Largest recent relative pullback among defensives with strong prior trend; hedges tech-led drawdown risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls; sector rotation post record highs"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY just returned +4.1% in five sessions with extreme tech leadership; we keep a large benchmark core and add three high-quality-evidence, low-beta laggards (healthcare, financials, staples) that pulled back hardest on a relative basis into event-heavy week.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Barbell of SPY core plus mean-reversion defensives/financials rather than chasing semis and software that already ran 7-9% in three sessions with 30-50% volatility.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27787,
"latency_seconds": 40.197955133160576,
"output_tokens": 2938,
"total_tokens": 30725
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
A balanced approach combining broad equity exposure with short-term Treasuries to manage risk while participating in market upside.
The portfolio balances SP500 momentum with the safety of short-term Treasuries.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued momentum from record highs and positive economic data.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at a record 7,736.52, up 1.8%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in mega-cap tech or a significant miss in ISM Services.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Profit-taking or negative surprises in upcoming economic releases.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI and Q2 productivity data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable short-term rates providing consistent yield.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Treasury's August 4 par yields were 4.04% at one year."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden spike in short-term rates or a major liquidity event.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Unexpected shifts in Fed policy expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury quarterly refunding announcement."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech sector continues to lead market gains.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite was 26,584.99, up 2.6%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant underperformance of mega-cap tech stocks.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Valuation concerns or sector rotation away from tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings and broader market sentiment."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical tensions support oil prices.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $79.36 per barrel on August 4, down 5.3% on the day."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in oil prices due to increased supply or demand destruction.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Resolution of Middle East tensions or weaker global demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold IAU return_5s was 1.31%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant rally in risk assets and a stronger US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger US dollar or rising real yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inflation data and Fed policy expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable European economic data and ECB policy.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"ECB held its deposit rate at 2.25%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp depreciation of the Euro against the US dollar.",
"option_id": "EURO",
"reversal_case": "Divergence in US and Eurozone economic performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "European economic releases and ECB commentary."
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.05,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Market correction from record highs.",
"Unexpected inflation data impacting rate expectations.",
"Geopolitical escalation affecting energy prices and global growth."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in mega-cap tech or a significant miss in ISM Services.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core holding to capture broad market momentum and record highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI and Q2 productivity data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden spike in short-term rates or a major liquidity event.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Defensive allocation to balance equity risk and capture yield.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury quarterly refunding announcement."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.55,
"portfolio_rationale": "A balanced approach combining broad equity exposure with short-term Treasuries to manage risk while participating in market upside.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The portfolio balances SP500 momentum with the safety of short-term Treasuries.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio emphasizes active holdings with base forecasts above SPY while capping technology-and-growth exposure at 50%. It pairs growth continuation in software/cybersecurity with oil rebound risk, crypto convexity, and yen diversification around the employment and services-data catalysts.
SPY is near record highs after a strong 5-day move, so the active portfolio favors selected areas with stronger near-term continuation or reversal catalysts. The main expected edge is from software/cybersecurity momentum plus oil geopolitical rebound potential.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record highs, broad positive asset share, and recent index strength support near-term trend persistence.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at a record 7,736.52, up 1.8% on August 4.",
"SPY return was 4.11% over 5 sessions and 2.67% over 21 sessions.",
"SPY 21-session volatility was 14.34% with a -3.38% 21-session max drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY loses the August 4 breakout/record-close posture and broad market breadth deteriorates materially.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The 5-day rally leaves the benchmark vulnerable to profit-taking if services data or employment data revive inflation and rate concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 ISM Services PMI and August 7 July Employment Situation before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Very strong short-term active momentum can persist if risk appetite remains constructive and services/earnings tone supports growth equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Software returned 9.31% over 3 sessions and had 7.02% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Software 21-session volatility was 29.84% and max drawdown was -8.11%.",
"Quality evidence score was weak at 0.185, so the case relies on near-term continuation with caveat."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Software gives back most of its latest active outperformance or broad growth equities reverse sharply before the exit close.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and weak quality evidence increase the risk that the rally reverses or was a short-covering move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI, large-cap earnings tone, and July Employment Situation before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breakout/high-close behavior and strong active momentum support additional follow-through if growth sentiment remains firm.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity returned 8.80% over 3 sessions and had 5.59% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Cybersecurity was at a 0.00% distance from its 52-week high.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 29.06%, below several higher-beta technology themes."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below the entry-date high/relative strength pattern or a broad technology reversal invalidates the continuation case.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "A broad technology reversal or disappointment in risk appetite could pull the group back after a fast rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI, large-cap earnings tone, and July Employment Situation before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A sharp selloff creates rebound potential if unresolved Hormuz risk restores geopolitical premium.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Oil returned -9.18% over 3 sessions and had -8.02% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Associated Press reported Brent crude at $79.36 on August 4, down 5.3% on the day.",
"Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping routes were not final, and a cargo ship was reported damaged by an unknown projectile."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Talks are finalized with clear shipping-route de-escalation or crude continues breaking lower after the August 4 selloff.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "If de-escalation progresses or the market focuses on weaker demand/refinery-run data, crude could continue falling.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Further headlines on Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz talks, shipping disruptions, or energy-risk premium before August 11."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior active trend plus recent pullback can recover quickly if risk appetite and digital-asset liquidity remain supportive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Ethereum ETF had 8.32% prior 16-session active return and -6.46% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.776, including 0.970 prior active rank and 0.955 recent pullback rank.",
"21-session volatility was high at 40.22%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crypto risk appetite deteriorates and Ethereum extends its recent 5-day underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"reversal_case": "Very high volatility and recent underperformance can persist if speculative assets de-risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Digital-asset flow and liquidity conditions during the week; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Unusually high volume and modest short-term strength could extend if employment data trigger risk aversion or lower US-rate expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Yen returned 0.99% over 3 sessions and had -0.27% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Yen volume z-score was 5.086, the highest among assessed candidates.",
"Yen quality evidence score was 0.493 with shallow drawdown rank of 0.925."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "US yields and risk appetite rise together, renewing pressure on yen exposure.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"reversal_case": "If risk appetite remains strong and US yield differentials widen, yen exposure can lag equities again.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation and any associated shift in rate-differential or risk-aversion expectations before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "High quality evidence, strong prior relative trend, and shallow drawdown could attract defensive equity flows.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities had a high quality evidence score of 0.861.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 6.50%, but 5-session active return was -4.23%.",
"21-session volatility was 13.27% with a -1.42% max drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities continue to lag SPY materially despite a risk-off or defensive tape.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Recent underperformance versus SPY may persist if growth leadership continues and dividend factors lag.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Potential factor rotation around ISM Services PMI and July Employment Situation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low volatility and positive carry provide stable but small expected return if risk assets stumble.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury 3-session return was 0.05% and 21-session volatility was 0.19%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.760 with low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks both 1.000.",
"Treasury 1-year par yield was 4.04% at the August 4 close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.02,
"invalidation_condition": "Equities continue to rally strongly, making the low-return cash-like profile unattractive versus SPY.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Cash-like exposure is very unlikely to outperform SPY if equities continue their recent rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond carry and possible risk-off demand around scheduled data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.4725,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A broad equity reversal after record S&P 500 and Dow closes could hit software, cybersecurity, and crypto simultaneously.",
"Technology-and-growth strength may prove to be a short-covering bounce given weak quality evidence and high volatility in several growth themes.",
"Hormuz negotiations could de-escalate quickly, removing oil's rebound catalyst after the sharp crude selloff.",
"The July Employment Situation could strengthen rate-hike concerns and pressure risk assets while also weakening yen exposure."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Software gives back most of its latest active outperformance or broad growth equities reverse sharply before the exit close.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strongest short-term relative price action in the universe among assessed finalists, with a plausible risk-on continuation case into the one-week window despite weak quality evidence.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI, large-cap earnings tone, and July Employment Situation before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below the entry-date high/relative strength pattern or a broad technology reversal invalidates the continuation case.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Cybersecurity combines strong 3-day and 5-day active momentum with a 52-week high, offering a cleaner continuation setup than many higher-volatility technology themes.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI, large-cap earnings tone, and July Employment Situation before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Talks are finalized with clear shipping-route de-escalation or crude continues breaking lower after the August 4 selloff.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Crude exposure has a near-term rebound/geopolitical-risk premium setup after a sharp drop, with Hormuz shipping risks unresolved inside the scoring window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Further headlines on Iran-Oman Strait of Hormuz talks, shipping disruptions, or energy-risk premium before August 11."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Crypto risk appetite deteriorates and Ethereum extends its recent 5-day underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"rationale": "Ethereum has strong prior active performance and high quality evidence after a recent pullback, providing convex upside if risk appetite persists.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Digital-asset flow and liquidity conditions during the week; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "US yields and risk appetite rise together, renewing pressure on yen exposure.",
"option_id": "YEN",
"rationale": "Yen provides a diversifying risk-off component with unusually high volume activity and a small positive short-term price move, while still clearing the SPY base forecast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation and any associated shift in rate-differential or risk-aversion expectations before the exit close."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.7225,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes active holdings with base forecasts above SPY while capping technology-and-growth exposure at 50%. It pairs growth continuation in software/cybersecurity with oil rebound risk, crypto convexity, and yen diversification around the employment and services-data catalysts.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near record highs after a strong 5-day move, so the active portfolio favors selected areas with stronger near-term continuation or reversal catalysts. The main expected edge is from software/cybersecurity momentum plus oil geopolitical rebound potential.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors independently supported pullback-and-rebound setups across defensive equity, rate-sensitive equity, energy, and crypto clusters. Diversification and the 50% cluster cap limit dependence on any single macro outcome.
Dividend and real estate combine strong quality scores with recent underperformance, while energy and Ethereum retain strong prior trends after sharp pullbacks. Each selected candidate has a base forecast above SPY's.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad positive participation and record highs support continued risk appetite.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 4.11% over five sessions and closed at a record.",
"Positive asset share was 79.71% over five sessions.",
"July employment data are scheduled for August 7."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY loses the recent breakout and closes below its pre-rally range after the employment report.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A 4.11% five-session gain leaves the benchmark vulnerable to profit-taking, while elevated inflation and hawkish FOMC dissent constrain valuation support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services on August 5 and July employment report on August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative performance plus a deep, high-volume pullback supports mean reversion without relying on recent price strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.861, highest in the universe.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 6.50%.",
"Five-session active return was -4.23% with reported volume z-score 2.392."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities continue underperforming SPY materially after the August 7 employment report.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "The market may remain concentrated in growth stocks, extending dividend underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report on August 7 and rotation after the narrow record-setting rally."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend and a deep pullback can reverse if Treasury yields stabilize after scheduled macro releases.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.843.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 5.27% versus a five-session active return of -5.94%.",
"Twenty-one-session drawdown was only -2.04% despite the recent relative pullback."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year Treasury yield rises decisively above the supplied 4.63% level and real estate makes a new 21-session low.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "A strong employment report or refunding-driven yield increase would pressure rate-sensitive real estate.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding announcement August 5 and July employment report August 7 may move yields."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Constrained Gulf exports and unresolved shipping risk can trigger an energy rebound after the abrupt oil decline.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return was 9.74% and prior active rank was 0.985.",
"Brent fell 5.3% on August 4 while Hormuz shipping negotiations remained unresolved.",
"IEA reported June Gulf exports at 16.1 million barrels per day versus a 24 million prewar average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent extends its August 4 decline as shipping negotiations become final and de-escalatory.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Final de-escalatory shipping arrangements could remove the geopolitical premium and extend the selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any change in unresolved Iran-Oman shipping talks or Strait of Hormuz disruptions before August 11."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A strong prior trend combined with a sharp recent pullback supports a tactical rebound if broad risk appetite persists.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.776.",
"Prior active rank was 0.970 and recent pullback rank was 0.955.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 8.32%, followed by five-session active return of -6.46%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 8.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ethereum ETF breaks below its recent 21-session drawdown trough while SPY remains firm.",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"reversal_case": "High 40.22% volatility and weak three-session performance can produce continued deleveraging rather than mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk-asset reaction to August 5 services data and August 7 employment data; no crypto-specific event identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong immediate momentum could persist if the record-setting technology rally broadens.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Three-session return was 9.31% and five-session active return was 7.02%.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.185 and recent pullback rank was 0.015.",
"Prior 16-session active return was -1.79%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Software loses more than half of its recent five-session active gain.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "The surge lacks independent briefing support and follows a weak prior relative trend, increasing reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services on August 5 and July employment report on August 7; no software-specific event identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low volatility and positive carry should preserve capital through macro-event risk.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.760.",
"Twenty-one-session volatility was 0.19% with no drawdown.",
"One-year Treasury par yield was 4.04%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.14,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.02,
"invalidation_condition": "An abrupt repricing of very short Treasury yields produces a negative weekly total return.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its one-week carry is too small to match a continued equity advance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury quarterly refunding announcement August 5."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.4125,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The August 7 employment report could lift Treasury yields and pressure real estate and dividend equities.",
"Final Iran-Oman shipping progress could extend the oil and energy reversal.",
"The record-setting equity rally could remain concentrated in technology, leaving selected laggards behind.",
"Ethereum's 40.22% annualized 21-session volatility creates substantial one-week downside risk."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities continue underperforming SPY materially after the August 7 employment report.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend, deep recent relative pullback, and the universe's highest quality score support a short-term rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report on August 7 and rotation after the narrow record-setting rally."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year Treasury yield rises decisively above the supplied 4.63% level and real estate makes a new 21-session low.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "High quality evidence and a sizable pullback create a favorable rebound setup if yields stabilize.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding announcement August 5 and July employment report August 7 may move yields."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent extends its August 4 decline as shipping negotiations become final and de-escalatory.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend and unresolved Hormuz risk offer rebound potential after the oil-led selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any change in unresolved Iran-Oman shipping talks or Strait of Hormuz disruptions before August 11."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Ethereum ETF breaks below its recent 21-session drawdown trough while SPY remains firm.",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"rationale": "Top-tier prior trend and pullback ranks support a tactical rebound, though volatility keeps the position capped.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk-asset reaction to August 5 services data and August 7 employment data; no crypto-specific event identified."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.8625,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors independently supported pullback-and-rebound setups across defensive equity, rate-sensitive equity, energy, and crypto clusters. Diversification and the 50% cluster cap limit dependence on any single macro outcome.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Dividend and real estate combine strong quality scores with recent underperformance, while energy and Ethereum retain strong prior trends after sharp pullbacks. Each selected candidate has a base forecast above SPY's.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-3
Neutral briefing and recent price history provide no active option with base forecast exceeding SP500; 100% SP500 allocation maximizes expected return within rules.
SP500 selected as benchmark proxy after testing continuation versus reversal across finalists; no cluster allocation exceeds cap.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record closes and positive asset share support modest upside into employment data.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at record 7736.52 up 1.8%",
"Q2 GDP 1.5% annualized",
"FOMC held funds rate 3.50-3.75%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7700 on August 7 or later",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Higher-than-expected unemployment or inflation print triggers rotation out of equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 BLS July Employment Situation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value tilt benefits from defensive rotation if growth slows.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.791",
"Low volatility rank 0.806",
"Shallow drawdown rank 0.910"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rallies more than 1.5% on August 5-6",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Continued mega-cap outperformance keeps value lagging.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 ISM Services PMI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High dividend quality supports relative stability.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.861",
"Prior active rank 0.940",
"Recent pullback rank 0.821"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.70%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate-sensitive sectors underperform on hawkish data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 Treasury refunding announcement"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable credit conditions support banks.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.821",
"Shallow drawdown rank 0.716",
"June job openings little changed"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank ETF falls more than 3%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve steepening pressures regional banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk supports prices.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at 79.36 down 5.3%",
"Prior active rank 0.985",
"Gulf oil exports well below prewar average"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent closes below 76",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Progress in Iran-Oman talks eases supply concerns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 Strait of Hormuz updates"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration provides ballast if equities stall.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year yield 4.63%",
"Low volatility rank 0.896",
"Shallow drawdown rank 0.881"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.75%",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Strong employment data pushes yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 Treasury refunding"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Global disinflation stall supports non-US equities.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IMF global growth forecast 3.0%",
"ECB held rates steady",
"Recent pullback rank 0.313"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "VEA underperforms SPY by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "DEVELOPED_EX_US",
"reversal_case": "US outperformance widens on strong domestic data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 US employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand if risk appetite fades.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.381",
"Recent pullback rank 0.522",
"Dollar return negative over 5 days"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold closes below prior week low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger dollar and higher real yields pressure gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5-7 macro releases"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July employment data surprise on August 7",
"Inflation reacceleration in upcoming CPI",
"Geopolitical escalation in Strait of Hormuz"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7700 on August 7 or later",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "No active holding clears the base-forecast hurdle above SP500; market data shows record closes but mixed macro releases with no clear one-week catalyst for outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 BLS July Employment Situation"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"portfolio_rationale": "Neutral briefing and recent price history provide no active option with base forecast exceeding SP500; 100% SP500 allocation maximizes expected return within rules.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SP500 selected as benchmark proxy after testing continuation versus reversal across finalists; no cluster allocation exceeds cap.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15748,
"latency_seconds": 14.937284888001159,
"output_tokens": 1607,
"reasoning_tokens": 740,
"total_tokens": 18095
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Overweight software and cybersecurity within the 50% tech cluster cap plus copper and financials for diversification, all with base forecasts above SPY, while retaining a SPY anchor after the record close. One-week horizon favors continuation of the recent risk-on rebound into scheduled data.
Selected higher-base active holdings in software, cybersecurity, copper and financials capped by cluster rules, paired with SPY. Focused on momentum continuation and near-term catalysts inside the August 4-11 window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record close and broad positive asset share sustain modest upside into jobs data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at record 7736.52 up 1.8% on August 4",
"spy_return_5s at 4.11% with distance_52w_high of 0.00%",
"FOMC held funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent highs on weak macro data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Overbought short-term conditions reverse on soft employment or sticky inflation signals",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong rebound momentum continues with risk-on flows into growth software",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE return_3s of 9.31% and active_return_5s of 7.02%",
"Nasdaq Composite up 2.6% to 26584.99 on August 4",
"volume_zscore_5v60 negative at -0.694"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal in Nasdaq or software names on weak ISM Services or jobs miss",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High recent gains and distance to 52w high of -13.39% invite mean reversion",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 Disney results and broader tech sentiment into July employment data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Fresh highs and positive momentum persist with defensive growth characteristics",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CYBERSECURITY return_3s 8.80% and active_return_5s 5.59%",
"distance_52w_high at 0.00%",
"corr_spy_63s of 0.494"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad tech selloff or spike in equity volatility before exit close",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "Sector beta to tech could amplify any broad growth selloff",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk appetite persistence into August 7 Employment Situation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Manufacturing strength and industrial demand support further gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"COPPER active_return_5s +0.61% and prior_16s_active_return +2.68%",
"July ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6 with prices at 71.1",
"distance_52w_high only -1.13%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sudden USD strength or China-linked demand scare",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"reversal_case": "Global growth concerns or USD rebound pressure industrial metals",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI on August 5 and industrial production follow-through"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value/financials catch-up and stable rates backdrop aid relative performance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS prior_16s_active_return +3.99% and quality evidence score 0.732",
"distance_52w_high 0.00% with volatility_21s 13.35%",
"Treasury 10-year yield at 4.63% on August 4"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield curve inversion or regional bank stress signal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit or deposit concerns resurface around employment data",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding announcement August 5 and jobs data August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent outperformance extends on mega-cap leadership",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TECHNOLOGY return_3s 6.36% and active_return_5s 5.13%",
"volatility_21s elevated at 36.69% with max_drawdown_21s -10.34%",
"prior_16s_active_return -5.41%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Nasdaq breakdown or rates spike",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High beta and prior underperformance raise snap-back risk after rebound",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech-heavy earnings and ISM Services August 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior strength and geopolitical premium reassert if Hormuz tensions rise",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $79.36 down 5.3% on August 4",
"ENERGY return_3s -0.75% and OIL return_3s -9.18%",
"prior_16s_active_return for ENERGY +9.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Further sharp drop in crude below recent lows",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Continued oil price decline from supply progress dominates",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-Oman talks updates and IEA-related flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Capital preservation holds if equities correct",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SHORT_TREASURY quality evidence score 0.760 with low volatility rank 1.000",
"return_3s 0.05% and volatility_21s 0.19%",
"one-year Treasury yield 4.04%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained equity rally rendering opportunity cost high",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on environment leaves cash-like returns lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.695,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Post-record profit-taking after 4%+ SPY 5-session gain",
"July employment miss or hot inflation print triggering rate-hike fears",
"Geopolitical flare-up in Strait of Hormuz reversing oil and risk assets",
"Tech concentration reversal given elevated recent returns and volatility"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal in Nasdaq or software names on weak ISM Services or jobs miss",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent rebound and high beta to continued risk-on after record closes supports outperformance vs SPY over one week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 5 Disney results and broader tech sentiment into July employment data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad tech selloff or spike in equity volatility before exit close",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Positive 3-session momentum and lower relative drawdown than pure semis support continuation above SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk appetite persistence into August 7 Employment Situation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sudden USD strength or China-linked demand scare",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "Positive active return and industrial demand proxy with base case above SPY amid manufacturing PMI strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July ISM Services PMI on August 5 and industrial production follow-through"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yield curve inversion or regional bank stress signal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Solid prior active trend and quality score with rates backdrop supporting modest outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding announcement August 5 and jobs data August 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent highs on weak macro data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark holding to anchor after record close while active sleeves seek alpha.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on August 7"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.195,
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight software and cybersecurity within the 50% tech cluster cap plus copper and financials for diversification, all with base forecasts above SPY, while retaining a SPY anchor after the record close. One-week horizon favors continuation of the recent risk-on rebound into scheduled data.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected higher-base active holdings in software, cybersecurity, copper and financials capped by cluster rules, paired with SPY. Focused on momentum continuation and near-term catalysts inside the August 4-11 window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16599,
"latency_seconds": 45.32408303208649,
"output_tokens": 2615,
"reasoning_tokens": 747,
"total_tokens": 19961
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)10%Gold (IAU)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Technology Sector (XLK)30%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)20% | 0.53 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)45%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)15% | 0.44 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)50% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Software (IGV)25%Cybersecurity (CIBR)25%Crude Oil (USO)20%Ethereum ETF (ETHA)15%Japanese Yen (FXY)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Ethereum ETF (ETHA)25% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Software (IGV)30%Cybersecurity (CIBR)20%Copper (CPER)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-08-04 | 250.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-08-04 | 93.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-08-04 | 27.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-08-04 | 30.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-08-04 | 124.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-08-04 | 151.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-08-04 | 36.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-08-04 | 36.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-08-04 | 63.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-08-04 | 16.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-08-04 | 60.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-08-04 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-08-04 | 56.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-08-04 | 112.04 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-08-04 | 118.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-08-04 | 85.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-08-04 | 40.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-08-04 | 115.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-08-04 | 97.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-08-04 | 72.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-08-04 | 95.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-08-04 | 60.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-08-04 | 58.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-08-04 | 220.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-08-04 | 14.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-08-04 | 106.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-08-04 | 91.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-08-04 | 57.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-08-04 | 76.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-08-04 | 162.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-08-04 | 79.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-08-04 | 50.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-08-04 | 186.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-08-04 | 93.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-08-04 | 47.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-08-04 | 106.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-08-04 | 94.61 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-08-04 | 58.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-08-04 | 82.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-08-04 | 52.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-08-04 | 107.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-08-04 | 77.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-08-04 | 105.76 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-08-04 | 723.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-08-04 | 45.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-08-04 | 77.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-08-04 | 771.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-08-04 | 575.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-08-04 | 91.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-08-04 | 53.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-08-04 | 102.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-08-04 | 53.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-08-04 | 65.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-08-04 | 171.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-08-04 | 102.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-08-04 | 186.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-08-04 | 380.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-08-04 | 107.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-08-04 | 48.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-08-04 | 97.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-08-04 | 33.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-08-04 | 28.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-08-04 | 124.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-08-04 | 256.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-08-04 | 76.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-08-04 | 77.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-08-04 | 313.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-08-04 | 301.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-08-04 | 226.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-08-04 | 44.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 8867d2beab94...3efd25bc |
| manifest.yaml | 7472dd996e1d...ba04470f |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | fd01b404826e...33e259da |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | da9dbd052d43...6498212d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 589243aec1d5...10e85f12 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 2b59c57cb801...f026893e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 900028b12d51...cc90bf42 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 6022171c342b...adbfce23 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |