Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Claude Fable 5 is lowest at 3.5.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +41.25%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 71.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-24 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260815-weekly-clean
35,138 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-15
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-17T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-17
- Exit date: 2026-08-24
- Entry rule: Use the Monday, August 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Monday, August 24, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z. Market observations run through the August 14, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 17 close through the August 24 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 17 close through the September 17 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.2% on August 14 to 7,785.76, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 53,732.41, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,729.16. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% to 3,068.42. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, the Russell 2000 rose 1.1%, and the Dow fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 had set an all-time high on August 13.
Through August 14, the reported year-to-date changes were +13.7% for the S&P 500, +15.0% for the Nasdaq, +23.6% for the Russell 2000, and +11.8% for the Dow. Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14 to $88.52 per barrel.
The U.S. Treasury's August 14 par yield curve was 3.86% at three months, 3.98% at one year, 4.17% at two years, 4.36% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.25% at both twenty and thirty years. From August 13 to August 14, the two-year yield rose 2 basis points, the five-year rose 4, the ten-year rose 5, and the thirty-year rose 4. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields derived from indicative bid-side quotations rather than transaction prices.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months. Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for about two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1% and energy fell 1.5%. Over 12 months, energy rose 14.7% and gasoline rose 24.6%.
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after a revised 0.1% decline in June. Final demand rose 4.7% over 12 months. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7% in July. Within goods, energy fell 3.1%, foods fell 0.9%, and goods excluding foods and energy rose 0.1%. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% for the month and 4.7% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as elevated, and uncertainty about the outlook as elevated. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Demand, inventories, and production
The Census Bureau estimated July retail and food-services sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June with a reported ±0.4 percentage-point sampling margin and up 5.0% from July 2025 with a ±0.5-point margin. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles, parts, and gasoline stations fell 0.2%. Motor-vehicle and parts dealers fell 1.8%, nonstore retailers fell 2.2%, clothing and accessories stores rose 1.9%, and food services and drinking places rose 0.5%.
June combined manufacturing and trade sales were $2.1113 trillion, down 1.1% from May and up 10.0% from a year earlier. June inventories were $2.7402 trillion, virtually unchanged from May and 3.0% above a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.30, compared with 1.39 a year earlier.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000. The labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, the employment-population ratio was 58.9%, and average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier.
Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health-care employment rose by 22,000. For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million total separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Output, income, and business surveys
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
ISM reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, its seventh consecutive expansion reading. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1, new orders 57.2, employment 47.4, supplier deliveries 52.8, and prices 70.3. ISM indexes are diffusion measures of reported direction and breadth rather than dollar output.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 17 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly and monthly entry close.
- August 18: July import and export prices and July housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; July industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET; second-quarter retail e-commerce at 10:00 a.m. ET. Home Depot is scheduled to report results.
- August 19: Target and Lowe's are scheduled to report results. Minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting are scheduled at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- August 20: second-quarter advance services at 10:00 a.m. ET. Walmart is scheduled to report results.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 24 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 25: July new-home sales.
- August 26: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, and July durable-goods orders.
- August 27: advance international trade in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories.
- August 28: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- September 1–4: July JOLTS, July construction spending, August ISM manufacturing, July factory orders, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, revised second-quarter productivity, July international trade, August ISM services, and the August Employment Situation.
- September 7: U.S. equity markets are scheduled to be closed for Labor Day.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting; the September 16 decision, Summary of Economic Projections, and press conference are inside the monthly window.
- September 16: August import and export prices, August advance retail sales, and July business inventories.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly exit close at 4:00 p.m. ET.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to their publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-15-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-15'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-17T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-cbcb0bc7f6ba
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-16T01:36:34.398607+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the Monday, August 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Monday, August 24, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-17'
exit_date: '2026-08-24'
created_at: '2026-08-16T01:36:34.398607+00:00'
notes: Fresh August 15, 2026 weekly Portfolio V3.0 production round. Research cutoff 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z. Entry and exit use official close prices.# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z. Market observations run through the August 14, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 17 close through the August 24 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 17 close through the September 17 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.2% on August 14 to 7,785.76, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 53,732.41, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,729.16. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% to 3,068.42. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, the Russell 2000 rose 1.1%, and the Dow fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 had set an all-time high on August 13.
Through August 14, the reported year-to-date changes were +13.7% for the S&P 500, +15.0% for the Nasdaq, +23.6% for the Russell 2000, and +11.8% for the Dow. Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14 to $88.52 per barrel.
The U.S. Treasury's August 14 par yield curve was 3.86% at three months, 3.98% at one year, 4.17% at two years, 4.36% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.25% at both twenty and thirty years. From August 13 to August 14, the two-year yield rose 2 basis points, the five-year rose 4, the ten-year rose 5, and the thirty-year rose 4. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields derived from indicative bid-side quotations rather than transaction prices.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months. Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for about two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1% and energy fell 1.5%. Over 12 months, energy rose 14.7% and gasoline rose 24.6%.
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after a revised 0.1% decline in June. Final demand rose 4.7% over 12 months. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7% in July. Within goods, energy fell 3.1%, foods fell 0.9%, and goods excluding foods and energy rose 0.1%. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% for the month and 4.7% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as elevated, and uncertainty about the outlook as elevated. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Demand, inventories, and production
The Census Bureau estimated July retail and food-services sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June with a reported ±0.4 percentage-point sampling margin and up 5.0% from July 2025 with a ±0.5-point margin. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles, parts, and gasoline stations fell 0.2%. Motor-vehicle and parts dealers fell 1.8%, nonstore retailers fell 2.2%, clothing and accessories stores rose 1.9%, and food services and drinking places rose 0.5%.
June combined manufacturing and trade sales were $2.1113 trillion, down 1.1% from May and up 10.0% from a year earlier. June inventories were $2.7402 trillion, virtually unchanged from May and 3.0% above a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.30, compared with 1.39 a year earlier.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000. The labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, the employment-population ratio was 58.9%, and average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier.
Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health-care employment rose by 22,000. For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million total separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Output, income, and business surveys
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
ISM reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, its seventh consecutive expansion reading. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1, new orders 57.2, employment 47.4, supplier deliveries 52.8, and prices 70.3. ISM indexes are diffusion measures of reported direction and breadth rather than dollar output.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 17 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly and monthly entry close.
- August 18: July import and export prices and July housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; July industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET; second-quarter retail e-commerce at 10:00 a.m. ET. Home Depot is scheduled to report results.
- August 19: Target and Lowe's are scheduled to report results. Minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting are scheduled at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- August 20: second-quarter advance services at 10:00 a.m. ET. Walmart is scheduled to report results.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 24 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 25: July new-home sales.
- August 26: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, and July durable-goods orders.
- August 27: advance international trade in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories.
- August 28: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- September 1–4: July JOLTS, July construction spending, August ISM manufacturing, July factory orders, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, revised second-quarter productivity, July international trade, August ISM services, and the August Employment Situation.
- September 7: U.S. equity markets are scheduled to be closed for Labor Day.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting; the September 16 decision, Summary of Economic Projections, and press conference are inside the monthly window.
- September 16: August import and export prices, August advance retail sales, and July business inventories.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly exit close at 4:00 p.m. ET.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to their publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "ca24953369416a48cfced71a2553b0a47fed5ce8f1f2437280952dc20699d9d3",
"manifest.yaml": "baae37f01f065069195c9deba954dbfabe8db19cb7083de9c93bbef0dbc8732f",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "4b59aad49799ce1393bdfc3f70e7f59d45df01fc7b82bae9241d85aa7817f4b7",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "0675b6d99529ee610b2ac0f7bf61fc6e46bfde8864dbdea1323e7af502aa175a",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "22455f946ba533f17ed3bc7a6c28fb31891e3f097e8e628af3aaf48313e137aa",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "dca47afa16d34ccf30d7a8bf374b0f1d0ed7588d41eece76be6187ef39bd1a61",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "49ce675f2646c5f3a7eeec693302eb5a5444d6c5d0725c821137df5f16680fae",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "ebfe7db8cd46151df5d52d98abb70504dcd690fb77feec23f468eac54a8e629a",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Top three are international quality pullbacks: South Africa, China, and Mexico all show strong or intact prior relative trends, sharp one-week underperformance with no in-briefing fundamental deterioration, and high quality-evidence scores, favoring short-horizon mean reversion versus a fully-priced SPY at record highs.
SPY near all-time highs with modest weekly gains, equal-weight outperforming, and dispersion around 2.2%. Weak payrolls and mixed CPI/PPI keep policy uncertainty elevated. Best setups are quality pullbacks in international equities with strong prior relative trends (South Africa, China, Mexico) that lagged sharply last week without new fundamental deterioration, while short-term momentum names (Korea, Energy) look extended and high-vol.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"cost_usd": 0.45874000000000004,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"EM/international reversal fails if dollar strengthens on hawkish FOMC minutes Aug 19",
"South Africa's 28.5% vol and 1.64 beta amplify any risk-off move",
"China-specific policy or geopolitical headlines could extend rather than reverse the pullback",
"Weak US retail earnings (HD/TGT/WMT) could trigger broad risk-off hitting high-beta EM"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active return +7.66% with -3.44% recent pullback",
"Highest slate quality score 0.787; strong prior trend intact",
"No briefing evidence of country-specific deterioration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.83% recent active after +1.49% prior active trend",
"Recent pullback rank 0.985 with quality score 0.754",
"Moderate 17.9% vol and 0.43 SPY correlation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.64% recent active vs flat prior trend; pullback rank 0.970",
"Quality score 0.716, moderate vol 16.8%, only -6.3% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+3.21% prior active trend, -2.90% recent pullback",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.807; -2.5% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Mild -1.18% recent pullback, low 11.4% vol, quality 0.778",
"Only -0.86% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong +11.11% prior active trend with flat recent week",
"High 34% vol; gold 21s +10% supports metals bid"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strongest prior active +13.92% but 39% vol and beta 2.0",
"Recent week roughly flat vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.39% recent active but prior trend also negative (-2.97%)",
"Weaker quality score 0.472; pullback not against strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; set all-time high Aug 13"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Flat active returns, at 52w high, volume z -1.94 without price signal"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"July retail sales -0.6%, autos -1.8%, nonstore -2.2%",
"Retail earnings (HD, TGT, LOW, WMT) in window add event risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-50% from 52w high with negative prior active trend",
"Persistent downtrend, not a one-week shock"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.27% active last week on Brent +1.7% to $88.52",
"Prior trend negative; mean-reversion risk after sharp spike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.82% active spike with 69.6% vol and -17% drawdown",
"Lowest quality score 0.183; spike not fundamentally supported in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CHINA": 35,
"MEXICO": 30,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near all-time highs with modest weekly gains, equal-weight outperforming, and dispersion around 2.2%. Weak payrolls and mixed CPI/PPI keep policy uncertainty elevated. Best setups are quality pullbacks in international equities with strong prior relative trends (South Africa, China, Mexico) that lagged sharply last week without new fundamental deterioration, while short-term momentum names (Korea, Energy) look extended and high-vol.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top three are international quality pullbacks: South Africa, China, and Mexico all show strong or intact prior relative trends, sharp one-week underperformance with no in-briefing fundamental deterioration, and high quality-evidence scores, favoring short-horizon mean reversion versus a fully-priced SPY at record highs.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near all-time highs with modest weekly gains, equal-weight outperforming, and dispersion around 2.2%. Weak payrolls and mixed CPI/PPI keep policy uncertainty elevated. Best setups are quality pullbacks in international equities with strong prior relative trends (South Africa, China, Mexico) that lagged sharply last week without new fundamental deterioration, while short-term momentum names (Korea, Energy) look extended and high-vol.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.45874000000000004,
"input_tokens": 29204,
"latency_seconds": 39.36642866700004,
"output_tokens": 3334,
"total_tokens": 32538
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
No candidate presents a strong overreaction-with-support setup that clears the 55% beat-SPY threshold. Energy has genuine oil-price continuation support but is not an overreaction label; the emerging-market pullbacks (Mexico, China) are plausible overreactions but lack independent in-window catalysts and stay below 55%. With SPY at all-time highs and low dispersion, defaulting to SPY is preferred; no eligible candidate qualifies.
SPY near all-time highs with modest weekly gains; breadth positive (RSP slightly outperforming). Macro mixed: soft labor data, cooling core inflation, but yields drifting up. No high-conviction overreaction with strong reversal setup among the slate. Retailer earnings (HD, WMT, TGT, LOW) and FOMC minutes create idiosyncratic risk. Defaulting toward SPY given weak edge.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes and retailer earnings could drive sharp idiosyncratic moves during window",
"Rising Treasury yields pressuring rate-sensitive and high-beta EM equities",
"Oil pullback would reverse the energy continuation thesis"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s +7.27%",
"Brent rose 1.7% to $88.52",
"USO 5s +6.91%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.64% pullback",
"Quality score 0.716",
"Distance to high -6.30%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.83%",
"Quality score 0.754",
"Distance to high -16.91%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.807 highest",
"Active 5s -2.90%",
"Prior active +3.21%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -4.39% worst",
"Volume z +0.31",
"Distance to high -17.92%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark",
"At all-time high",
"Low vol 13.68%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.44%",
"Vol 28.52%",
"Prior active +7.66%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +0.32%",
"Volume z -1.94",
"At 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.11%",
"Vol 34.22%",
"Distance to high -44.62%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +13.92%",
"Vol 39.15%",
"Active 5s +0.81%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Low vol 11.39%",
"Active 5s -1.18%",
"Quality 0.778"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -1.78%",
"Retail sales fell 0.6%",
"Retailer earnings week"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +7.82%",
"Vol 69.60% extreme",
"Drawdown -17.05%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.58%",
"Vol 21.33%",
"Distance to high -50.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near all-time highs with modest weekly gains; breadth positive (RSP slightly outperforming). Macro mixed: soft labor data, cooling core inflation, but yields drifting up. No high-conviction overreaction with strong reversal setup among the slate. Retailer earnings (HD, WMT, TGT, LOW) and FOMC minutes create idiosyncratic risk. Defaulting toward SPY given weak edge.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"MEXICO",
"CHINA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate presents a strong overreaction-with-support setup that clears the 55% beat-SPY threshold. Energy has genuine oil-price continuation support but is not an overreaction label; the emerging-market pullbacks (Mexico, China) are plausible overreactions but lack independent in-window catalysts and stay below 55%. With SPY at all-time highs and low dispersion, defaulting to SPY is preferred; no eligible candidate qualifies.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near all-time highs with modest weekly gains; breadth positive (RSP slightly outperforming). Macro mixed: soft labor data, cooling core inflation, but yields drifting up. No high-conviction overreaction with strong reversal setup among the slate. Retailer earnings (HD, WMT, TGT, LOW) and FOMC minutes create idiosyncratic risk. Defaulting toward SPY given weak edge.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29210,
"latency_seconds": 34.320764142999906,
"output_tokens": 3025,
"total_tokens": 32235
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
With SPY near an all-time high and only normal dispersion, edges are small. The best risk-adjusted candidates are quality pullbacks: Australia, Mexico and South Africa each fell sharply against SPY in the last week while retaining flat-to-strong prior 16-session relative trends and high quality evidence scores, consistent with temporary overreaction rather than deterioration. Recent-strength names (South Korea, Energy) lack independent in-window support and carry extreme volatility, so they rank low. Brazil and Bitcoin show persistent negative prior active and deep drawdowns and are treated as deterioration, not reversal.
SPY sits near an all-time high with modest weekly gains, breadth positive (RSP beat SPY by 0.82% over 5 sessions), credit stable, and a mild rise in long yields. Cross-sectional active dispersion of 2.17% is unremarkable. The week's calendar (FOMC minutes, big-box retail earnings, industrial production) is informational rather than regime-changing. Recent laggards are mostly emerging-market/currency-driven pullbacks with intact medium-term trends, which supports modest mean-reversion in quality pullback names rather than aggressive positioning.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"cost_usd": 0.23669500000000002,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Currency-driven EM pullbacks can extend if the dollar firms further, hurting Australia, Mexico and South Africa simultaneously",
"FOMC minutes on August 19 could reveal hawkish dissent momentum and lift yields, pressuring high-beta international equities",
"Big-box retail earnings could shift US consumer sentiment and drive an index-level move that swamps small relative edges",
"South Africa's 28.5% volatility means the position can lose several points versus SPY in a single week",
"Correlated EM exposure across all three selections limits diversification if global risk appetite deteriorates"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-2.90% active over 5 sessions against +3.21% prior 16-session active",
"Highest quality evidence score in universe at 0.807",
"Shallow 21-session drawdown of -2.50%, moderate 17.2% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.64% recent active with roughly flat prior active (+0.06%)",
"Quality score 0.716 with moderate 16.8% vol and -3.24% drawdown",
"No fundamental deterioration cited in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.44% recent active against strong +7.66% prior 16-session active",
"Quality score 0.787, prior active rank 0.970",
"High 28.5% volatility raises dispersion of outcomes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.18% recent active, low 11.4% vol, -1.23% drawdown",
"Quality score 0.778, near 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.83% recent active, prior active +1.49%",
"16.9% below 52-week high, policy risk unresolved in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At 52-week high with +0.32% recent active",
"Volume z of -1.94 shows fading participation",
"ISM manufacturing 55.6 supportive but already priced"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strongest prior active in universe (+13.92%) but flat recent",
"39% volatility, beta 2.03 to SPY",
"Volume z -0.83 indicates cooling participation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+11.11% prior active, +1.31% recent active",
"34% volatility; rising 10y and 30y yields a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.58% recent active and -1.88% prior active, both negative",
"50% below 52-week high indicates persistent downtrend",
"Volume z -0.87 shows no accumulation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; all-time high on August 13",
"13.68% volatility, -0.20% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.39% recent active on top of -2.97% prior active",
"-17.92% from 52-week high with -7.86% recent drawdown",
"Weakest quality profile among EM pullbacks in the slate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"July retail sales fell 0.6%, nonstore retailers -2.2%",
"-1.78% recent and -0.85% prior active, both negative",
"Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, Walmart report inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.27% recent active with USO +7.31% over 5 sessions",
"At 52-week high, prior active -2.16%",
"Sharp one-week move raises give-back risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.82% recent active but 69.6% volatility and -17.05% drawdown",
"Lowest quality score in universe cohort at 0.183",
"Beta 3.99 to SPY makes it a leveraged market bet"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUSTRALIA": 35,
"MEXICO": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"AUSTRALIA",
"MEXICO",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY sits near an all-time high with modest weekly gains, breadth positive (RSP beat SPY by 0.82% over 5 sessions), credit stable, and a mild rise in long yields. Cross-sectional active dispersion of 2.17% is unremarkable. The week's calendar (FOMC minutes, big-box retail earnings, industrial production) is informational rather than regime-changing. Recent laggards are mostly emerging-market/currency-driven pullbacks with intact medium-term trends, which supports modest mean-reversion in quality pullback names rather than aggressive positioning.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AUSTRALIA",
"MEXICO",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "With SPY near an all-time high and only normal dispersion, edges are small. The best risk-adjusted candidates are quality pullbacks: Australia, Mexico and South Africa each fell sharply against SPY in the last week while retaining flat-to-strong prior 16-session relative trends and high quality evidence scores, consistent with temporary overreaction rather than deterioration. Recent-strength names (South Korea, Energy) lack independent in-window support and carry extreme volatility, so they rank low. Brazil and Bitcoin show persistent negative prior active and deep drawdowns and are treated as deterioration, not reversal.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY sits near an all-time high with modest weekly gains, breadth positive (RSP beat SPY by 0.82% over 5 sessions), credit stable, and a mild rise in long yields. Cross-sectional active dispersion of 2.17% is unremarkable. The week's calendar (FOMC minutes, big-box retail earnings, industrial production) is informational rather than regime-changing. Recent laggards are mostly emerging-market/currency-driven pullbacks with intact medium-term trends, which supports modest mean-reversion in quality pullback names rather than aggressive positioning.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.23669500000000002,
"input_tokens": 29204,
"latency_seconds": 44.09949951999988,
"output_tokens": 3627,
"total_tokens": 32831
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio favors assets with strong recent momentum (South Korea, Energy) and high-quality pullbacks (South Africa) that have a reasonable probability of outperforming the S&P 500 over the next week.
The market is showing mixed signals with the S&P 500 near all-time highs but some underlying weakness in specific sectors and international markets. Inflation data is relatively benign, but retail sales and housing starts show some softness.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden reversal in recent momentum trends could negatively impact South Korea and Energy.",
"Broader market weakness could drag down all equity positions, including the S&P 500."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 7.47%",
"High volatility of 69.60%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.61%",
"Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.55%",
"Quality score of 0.787"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 13.92%",
"High volatility of 39.15%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 11.11%",
"Quality score of 0.544"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.00%",
"Quality score of 0.807"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.08%",
"Quality score of 0.778"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.44%",
"Volume z-score of -1.94"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.87%",
"Volume z-score of -1.71"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.15%",
"Quality score of 0.472"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.78%",
"Quality score of 0.754"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.61%",
"Quality score of 0.716"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.86%",
"Distance from 52w high of -50.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 had set an all-time high on August 13",
"Recent return of 0.75%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUSTRALIA": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"AUSTRALIA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with the S&P 500 near all-time highs but some underlying weakness in specific sectors and international markets. Inflation data is relatively benign, but retail sales and housing starts show some softness.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 6: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors assets with strong recent momentum (South Korea, Energy) and high-quality pullbacks (South Africa) that have a reasonable probability of outperforming the S&P 500 over the next week.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with the S&P 500 near all-time highs but some underlying weakness in specific sectors and international markets. Inflation data is relatively benign, but retail sales and housing starts show some softness.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 20141,
"latency_seconds": 20.64168057400002,
"output_tokens": 2937,
"total_tokens": 23078
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Favor measured reversals where a sharp relative pullback follows prior strength and is supported by high quality scores. Australia offers the best risk-adjusted setup, while South Africa and China provide higher-beta rebound potential; extended continuation trades carry greater reversal risk.
Breadth is positive but macro signals conflict: weak labor and retail data favor pullback reversals, while elevated inflation and rising yields constrain risk assets. High-quality international pullbacks offer the clearest one-week relative setups.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes could reinforce a hawkish stance and pressure global risk assets.",
"Housing, industrial-production, or retail earnings surprises could reverse the pullback thesis.",
"Elevated inflation and rising long yields could keep SPY leadership intact.",
"Currency and commodity moves could dominate the international-equity candidates over the short window."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.90% after prior active strength of 3.21%.",
"Quality score was slate-leading 0.807, with a shallow -2.50% drawdown.",
"Volatility was moderate at 17.21%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return fell 3.44% despite prior active strength of 7.66%.",
"Quality score was 0.787, including 0.970 prior-strength and 0.940 pullback ranks.",
"The 21-session drawdown was limited to 4.05% despite high volatility."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -3.83% following prior active strength of 1.49%.",
"Quality score was 0.754 with a 0.985 pullback rank.",
"SPY beta was only 0.60, providing differentiated rebound potential."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -3.64% while prior active return was approximately flat.",
"Quality score was 0.716 with a 0.970 pullback rank.",
"Volatility was 16.77% and drawdown was 3.24%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -1.18% after prior active strength of 0.55%.",
"Quality score was 0.778 with low volatility of 11.39%.",
"Its 1.23% drawdown was the shallowest among non-benchmark slate candidates."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was the slate-leading 13.92%.",
"Recent active return remained positive at 0.81%.",
"Volatility was very high at 39.15%, limiting confidence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 11.11% and recent active return was 1.31%.",
"Gold gained 10.00% over 21 sessions, supporting precious-metals momentum.",
"Silver volatility was high at 34.22%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 0.32% while prior active return was -0.21%.",
"Volume z-score was deeply negative at -1.94.",
"Manufacturing PMI was expansionary at 55.6, but industrial production rose only 0.1%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 0.40% over five sessions and 3.41% over 21 sessions.",
"The index set an all-time high on August 13.",
"Positive asset breadth was 65.22% over five sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -4.39%, but prior active return was also weak at -2.97%.",
"Quality score was only 0.472 despite the deepest pullback rank.",
"The 21-session drawdown reached 7.86%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"The ETF remained 50.02% below its 52-week high.",
"Volume z-score was -0.87, offering no flow confirmation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.4,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Retail sales fell 0.6% in July and nonstore retail sales fell 2.2%.",
"Recent and prior active returns were both negative at -1.78% and -0.85%.",
"Major retail earnings during the window create event risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 7.27% after prior active weakness of -2.16%.",
"Brent rose 1.7% on August 14, but the move was already extended.",
"Quality score was low at 0.234."
],
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],
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"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return jumped 7.82% despite prior active weakness of -1.33%.",
"Volatility was extreme at 69.60% with a 17.05% drawdown.",
"Quality score was the slate-low 0.183."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
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}
],
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"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
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"CHINA": 30,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35
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"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
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"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
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"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CHINA",
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"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
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"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
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"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
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"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"CHINA"
],
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35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "reversal",
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"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AUSTRALIA",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"CHINA"
]
}
},
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"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CHINA",
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}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor measured reversals where a sharp relative pullback follows prior strength and is supported by high quality scores. Australia offers the best risk-adjusted setup, while South Africa and China provide higher-beta rebound potential; extended continuation trades carry greater reversal risk.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is positive but macro signals conflict: weak labor and retail data favor pullback reversals, while elevated inflation and rising yields constrain risk assets. High-quality international pullbacks offer the clearest one-week relative setups.",
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"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
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}xai-grok-4-3
Top three ranked candidates show quality-supported pullbacks labeled as overreaction with p_beat_spy at or above 55 percent, satisfying eligibility for non-SPY allocation under the deterministic rule.
Weak labor revisions and mixed retail data limit directional conviction; cross-sectional quality and pullback signals favor selective reversals over continuation in the one-week window.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Labor market revisions may extend defensive flows",
"One-week volatility in commodity-linked names",
"FOMC minutes could shift rate expectations"
],
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"rank": 9,
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{
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
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"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
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"rank": 11,
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
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"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
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"rank": 12,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
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{
"evidence": [
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],
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"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
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"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
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"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
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"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
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{
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"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
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"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
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"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
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"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Weak labor revisions and mixed retail data limit directional conviction; cross-sectional quality and pullback signals favor selective reversals over continuation in the one-week window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top three ranked candidates show quality-supported pullbacks labeled as overreaction with p_beat_spy at or above 55 percent, satisfying eligibility for non-SPY allocation under the deterministic rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak labor revisions and mixed retail data limit directional conviction; cross-sectional quality and pullback signals favor selective reversals over continuation in the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
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}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction ranks favor high-quality international names showing sharp recent underperformance after solid prior strength, labeled overreaction for potential one-week snapback; energy continuation is secondary; extreme high-vol winners like Korea rank low due to reversal risk; overall edge versus SPY is modest so prefer_spy remains true diagnostically.
SPY near highs with low-to-normal cross-sectional dispersion; soft labor and sticky inflation mixed with solid ISM and energy strength create room for selective mean-reversion in high-quality international pullbacks alongside limited continuation in energy, rather than broad trend dominance.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky CPI/PPI and hawkish FOMC minority could lift yields and pressure EM/risk assets into Aug 24",
"Soft July payrolls and retail sales may trigger growth-scare selling that hits cyclical internationals",
"Energy and metals continuation could reverse if oil fails to hold recent gains",
"High-vol names (Korea, silver, metals) can gap against mean-reversion thesis on any risk-off day"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.787 with prior active rank 0.970 and recent pullback rank 0.940",
"Recent active return -3.44% after prior active +7.66%",
"Horizon max drawdown only -4.05% despite 28.52% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.754 with recent pullback rank 0.985 and prior active rank 0.806",
"Recent active -3.83% after prior active +1.49%",
"Distance to 52w high -16.91% with moderate 17.92% horizon vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score 0.807 with prior active 0.881 and pullback rank 0.925",
"Recent active -2.90% after prior +3.21%",
"Shallow horizon drawdown -2.50% and distance to high only -2.50%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.716 with recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Recent active -3.64% versus near-flat prior active +0.06%",
"Horizon drawdown limited to -3.24%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.778 with pullback rank 0.821 and low horizon vol 11.39%",
"Recent active only -1.18% with shallow max drawdown -1.23%",
"Distance to 52w high -0.86%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +7.27% with Brent crude up 1.7% to $88.52 on Aug 14",
"Negative SPY corr -0.36 offering diversification",
"Near 52w high at -0.33% distance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 1.000 and active -4.39%",
"Prior active already negative -2.97% limiting pure mean-reversion edge",
"Quality score moderate 0.472"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.11% with quality score 0.544",
"Recent active still positive +1.31%",
"High beta 2.07 and distance to high -44.62%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 1.000 and +13.92% prior active",
"Recent active still +0.81% despite -0.59% absolute",
"Elevated 39.15% horizon vol and beta 2.03"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 0.955 and active -3.58%",
"Distance to 52w high -50.02% with quality 0.534",
"Volume z negative -0.87"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.94 indicating dislocation but recent active only +0.32%",
"At 52w high (0.00% distance)",
"Quality score mid 0.520"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.71 and recent active -1.78%",
"Quality 0.525 with pullback rank 0.881",
"Retail sales weakness noted in briefing for motor vehicles and nonstore"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +7.47% and active +7.82% but quality score only 0.183",
"Horizon vol extreme 69.60% and max drawdown -17.05%",
"Beta near 4.0 elevates one-week reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent +0.75% and near all-time high after Aug 13 record",
"Horizon vol 13.68% and drawdown -2.83%",
"Positive asset share 65% over 5 sessions supports baseline"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUSTRALIA": 30,
"CHINA": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"CHINA",
"AUSTRALIA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near highs with low-to-normal cross-sectional dispersion; soft labor and sticky inflation mixed with solid ISM and energy strength create room for selective mean-reversion in high-quality international pullbacks alongside limited continuation in energy, rather than broad trend dominance.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"CHINA",
"AUSTRALIA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction ranks favor high-quality international names showing sharp recent underperformance after solid prior strength, labeled overreaction for potential one-week snapback; energy continuation is secondary; extreme high-vol winners like Korea rank low due to reversal risk; overall edge versus SPY is modest so prefer_spy remains true diagnostically.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near highs with low-to-normal cross-sectional dispersion; soft labor and sticky inflation mixed with solid ISM and energy strength create room for selective mean-reversion in high-quality international pullbacks alongside limited continuation in energy, rather than broad trend dominance.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18086,
"latency_seconds": 45.60530194800049,
"output_tokens": 3020,
"reasoning_tokens": 430,
"total_tokens": 21536
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-week setup favors staying close to SPY: dispersion is contained, the index is at highs, and the cleanest non-SPY names are low-beta quality pullbacks without a scheduled country catalyst. High-vol continuations and EM/crypto shocks fail a fair reversal test for beating SPY at 55%+ this week.
SPY is near a fresh high with only 2.17% 5-session active-return dispersion, mixed labor/inflation prints, and a data-and-FOMC-minutes week. Quality international pullbacks look cleaner than high-vol continuations or EM/crypto shocks, but none have a clear one-week catalyst edge versus the benchmark.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July 28-29 FOMC minutes on August 19 can reprice the 3.50%-3.75% hold and the three dissenters favoring a hike.",
"Retail and housing prints on August 18-20 plus Home Depot, Target, Lowe's, and Walmart can hit discretionary and cyclicals.",
"Energy and metals remain sensitive to the already-large oil move and 39%+ mining/silver vol.",
"EM and Korea beta (up to ~4) can dominate if risk appetite fades after the August 13 high."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.778 with shallow 21-session drawdown of -1.23% and horizon vol 11.39%.",
"Recent active return only -1.18% after a modest +0.55% prior active trend.",
"SPY beta 0.45 and 52-week distance -0.86%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score at 0.807 with prior active +3.21% and recent active -2.90%.",
"Horizon vol 17.21% and max drawdown only -2.50%.",
"SPY corr 0.61 and 52-week distance -2.50%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 set an all-time high on August 13 and was only 0.20% off the 52-week high through August 14.",
"Weekly SPY return +0.40% with 21-session return +3.41% and horizon vol 13.68%.",
"Broad 5-session positive-asset share 65.22%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score -1.94 is the largest dislocation on the slate.",
"At the 52-week high with recent return +0.44% and quality score 0.520.",
"ISM manufacturing PMI 55.6 in July with production 58.5."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -3.64% after a flat +0.06% prior active window.",
"Quality score 0.716 with recent pullback rank 0.970.",
"Horizon vol 16.77% and drawdown only -3.24%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.83% versus prior active +1.49%.",
"Quality evidence 0.754 with recent pullback rank 0.985.",
"Still -16.91% from the 52-week high with beta 0.60."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.66% then recent active -3.44%.",
"Quality score 0.787 but horizon vol 28.52% and beta 1.64.",
"52-week distance -15.43%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +7.27% with Brent at $88.52 and USO 5-session +7.31%.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.36 and only -0.33% from the 52-week high.",
"Quality score only 0.234 and volume z -1.00."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.71 with recent active -1.78%.",
"July retail sales fell 0.6% and payrolls were -23,000.",
"Quality 0.525 and 52-week distance -4.70%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.39% after prior active -2.97%, so weakness is not a one-window shock only.",
"Quality 0.472 and 52-week distance -17.92%.",
"Horizon vol 22.17% and drawdown -7.86%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.58% and 52-week distance -50.02%.",
"Quality 0.534 with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Volume z -0.87 and beta 1.17."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.11% with recent active still +1.31%.",
"Horizon vol 34.22% and 52-week distance -44.62%.",
"Quality 0.544 and beta 2.07."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +13.92% is the strongest medium-horizon slate trend.",
"Horizon vol 39.15% and beta 2.03.",
"Recent active only +0.81% with volume z -0.83."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +7.47% and active +7.82% with horizon vol 69.60%.",
"Quality score 0.183, max drawdown -17.05%, beta 3.99.",
"Volume z -0.81 after an already large short-window move."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BRAZIL",
"CHINA",
"MEXICO",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ENERGY",
"AUSTRALIA",
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUSTRALIA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a fresh high with only 2.17% 5-session active-return dispersion, mixed labor/inflation prints, and a data-and-FOMC-minutes week. Quality international pullbacks look cleaner than high-vol continuations or EM/crypto shocks, but none have a clear one-week catalyst edge versus the benchmark.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"UNITED_KINGDOM",
"AUSTRALIA",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-week setup favors staying close to SPY: dispersion is contained, the index is at highs, and the cleanest non-SPY names are low-beta quality pullbacks without a scheduled country catalyst. High-vol continuations and EM/crypto shocks fail a fair reversal test for beating SPY at 55%+ this week.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a fresh high with only 2.17% 5-session active-return dispersion, mixed labor/inflation prints, and a data-and-FOMC-minutes week. Quality international pullbacks look cleaner than high-vol continuations or EM/crypto shocks, but none have a clear one-week catalyst edge versus the benchmark.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17798,
"latency_seconds": 41.35764607800047,
"output_tokens": 2661,
"reasoning_tokens": 509,
"total_tokens": 20968
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | South Africa Equities (EZA)35%China Equities (MCHI)35%Mexico Equities (EWW)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Australia Equities (EWA)35%Mexico Equities (EWW)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | South Africa Equities (EZA)35%Australia Equities (EWA)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Australia Equities (EWA)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)35%China Equities (MCHI)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Australia Equities (EWA)35%United Kingdom Equities (EWU)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | South Africa Equities (EZA)35%China Equities (MCHI)35%Australia Equities (EWA)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | ca2495336941...0699d9d3 |
| manifest.yaml | baae37f01f06...dbc8732f |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 4b59aad49799...7817f4b7 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 0675b6d99529...02aa175a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 22455f946ba5...13e137aa |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | dca47afa16d3...39bd1a61 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 49ce675f2646...16680fae |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | ebfe7db8cd46...4a8e629a |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |