AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 67.3/100 As of July 15, 2026. Inflation-sensitive risk taking Model Agreement Tight 2.7 point dispersion Insight Models missed the weekly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Ethereum ETF (ETHA) at +10.76%. 0 of 7 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position Semiconductors 14.8% 8 models hold SMH Biggest Shift Crude Oil up 11.3 pp vs prior monthly round Open Portfolio Leader GPT-5.6 Sol currently leads at -0.7% interim result, not yet scored Latest Monthly Gemini 3.1 Pro led -4.5% vs S&P 0.3% Full Monthly History Grok 4.3 leads score 0.4 across 14/14
Data Prices Jul 15 67/67 audited

One-month rounds

All Available Monthly History

Context across every resolved one-month round. Fair model-vs-model rankings use equal-run comparison sets.

Monthly track

Full-History Monthly Scores

Resolved monthly rounds only.

14 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked2 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-06-15-1M
All resolved rounds

Full-History Model Scores

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
Claude Opus 4.7
Gemini 3.1 Pro
GPT-5.5
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 14/14 scored rounds
0.4
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 14/14 scored rounds
-3.4
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 14/14 scored rounds
-7.8
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 14/14 scored rounds
-17.8
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 14/14 scored rounds
-1.6
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
14 resolved rounds compared4 full-history models ranked2 short-history models separatedNewest included round: CB-2026-06-15-1M
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
0.08%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.61%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
-1.39%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
-3.17%
S&P S&P 500
-0.28%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
17.86%
Not ranked yet Short-history models

Shown for transparency; not included in the main ranking until they have all 14 completed rounds.

Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · short history · 11/14 scored rounds
Score (11/14)
-3.1
Avg return
-0.61%
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · short history · 2/14 scored rounds
Score (2/14)
-5.3
Avg return
-1.11%
Short history: models missing resolved rounds are shown but cannot lead the full-history score.
Scope

What This Scorecard Includes

This all-history view can include unequal model histories. Use Benchmark Comparison Sets for the fair headline ranking where every model has the exact same included rounds.

Compare cohorts Comparison sets