Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 68.3 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +38.12% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +59.38%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +29.69%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-07 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260731
33,208 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-31
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-02T22:43:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-03T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-31
- Exit date: 2026-08-07
- Entry rule: Use the Friday, July 31, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Friday, August 7, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-02T22:43:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 31, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 31, the S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.7%; the Dow closed at 52,485.03, up 0.5%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,373.85, up 1.0%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,931.34, down 0.5%.
- For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow each gained 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 was nearly unchanged. The S&P 500 finished July with a small loss.
- Through July 31, the S&P 500 was up 9.4% in 2026, the Dow 9.2%, the Nasdaq 9.2%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Amazon rose 15.3%, while Apple fell 7.4% and Micron Technology fell 5.9%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31 from 4.68% late July 30 and 3.97% before the Middle East war.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- Second-quarter civilian compensation costs rose 0.9%. Over twelve months, compensation rose 3.4%, wages and salaries 3.2%, and benefits 3.8%; inflation-adjusted private-industry wages and salaries fell 0.4%.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Companies, Energy, and International Context
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude rose 1.2% on July 31 to $87.93 per barrel. June global oil supply was estimated at 98.8 million barrels per day, 9.4 million below its pre-war level, while Gulf exports were 16.1 million barrels per day versus 24 million before the war.
- On August 2, the United States said it would hold off on new Iran strikes and claimed parameters for an agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no current reopening discussion was taking place. No agreement had been reached, and markets had not reopened after these statements.
- Seven OPEC+ countries decided August 2 to implement a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee highlighted risks to energy infrastructure and maritime routes.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23.
- Euro-area July flash inflation was 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June; energy inflation was 10.0%, and inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was 2.5%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
- South Korea's Kospi rose 17.9% on July 31 but remained down 22% for July.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 7 Close
- August 3: June U.S. construction spending and the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
- August 4: June U.S. international trade, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, manufacturers' orders, and AMD results after the U.S. close.
- August 5: Eli Lilly results before the U.S. open.
- August 6: preliminary second-quarter U.S. productivity, weekly unemployment claims, and June wholesale trade.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation, June consumer credit, and the weekly scoring-window close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, geopolitical claims remain unresolved, estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-31-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-31'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-03T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-02T22:43:13.007632+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Friday, July 31, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Friday, August 7, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-31'
exit_date: '2026-08-07'
created_at: '2026-08-02T22:43:13.007632+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-02T22:43:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 31, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 31, the S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.7%; the Dow closed at 52,485.03, up 0.5%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,373.85, up 1.0%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,931.34, down 0.5%.
- For the week, the S&P 500 and Dow each gained 1.0%, the Nasdaq gained 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 was nearly unchanged. The S&P 500 finished July with a small loss.
- Through July 31, the S&P 500 was up 9.4% in 2026, the Dow 9.2%, the Nasdaq 9.2%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Amazon rose 15.3%, while Apple fell 7.4% and Micron Technology fell 5.9%.
## Rates, Growth, Inflation, and Labor
- The FOMC voted 9-3 on July 29 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. It described activity as solid, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated.
- The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31 from 4.68% late July 30 and 3.97% before the Middle East war.
- Advance second-quarter real GDP increased at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%, the PCE price index 5.1%, and core PCE 3.4%, all at annual rates.
- In June, personal income rose 0.2%, nominal PCE 0.3%, real PCE 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. The PCE price index fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% over twelve months; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%, respectively.
- Second-quarter civilian compensation costs rose 0.9%. Over twelve months, compensation rose 3.4%, wages and salaries 3.2%, and benefits 3.8%; inflation-adjusted private-industry wages and salaries fell 0.4%.
- Initial unemployment claims were 197,000 for the week ended July 25, up 9,000. Insured unemployment was 1.782 million and the insured unemployment rate was 1.2%.
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
## Companies, Energy, and International Context
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue up 18%, cloud revenue up 27%, and Azure growth of 43%; More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%. Meta reported revenue up 28%, costs and expenses up 55%, operating income down 8%, and net income down 14%.
- Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%, gross margin of 50.1%, and diluted EPS of $2.02, up 29%. Tariff refunds added approximately 2 percentage points to gross margin and $0.11 to EPS.
- Amazon reported quarterly net sales of $200.6 billion, up 20%, operating income of $27.5 billion, and AWS sales growth of 37%. Trailing-twelve-month free cash flow was a $7.6 billion outflow after property and equipment purchases increased by $66.1 billion.
- Amazon forecast third-quarter sales of $197 billion to $202 billion and operating income of $22.5 billion to $26.5 billion. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- Brent crude rose 1.2% on July 31 to $87.93 per barrel. June global oil supply was estimated at 98.8 million barrels per day, 9.4 million below its pre-war level, while Gulf exports were 16.1 million barrels per day versus 24 million before the war.
- On August 2, the United States said it would hold off on new Iran strikes and claimed parameters for an agreement including reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Iran said no current reopening discussion was taking place. No agreement had been reached, and markets had not reopened after these statements.
- Seven OPEC+ countries decided August 2 to implement a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in September. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee highlighted risks to energy infrastructure and maritime routes.
- The Bank of Japan voted 8-1 to keep its overnight call-rate target around 1.0%; one member proposed 1.25%. The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged July 23.
- Euro-area July flash inflation was 2.9%, up from 2.8% in June; energy inflation was 10.0%, and inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was 2.5%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
- South Korea's Kospi rose 17.9% on July 31 but remained down 22% for July.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 7 Close
- August 3: June U.S. construction spending and the Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
- August 4: June U.S. international trade, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, manufacturers' orders, and AMD results after the U.S. close.
- August 5: Eli Lilly results before the U.S. open.
- August 6: preliminary second-quarter U.S. productivity, weekly unemployment claims, and June wholesale trade.
- August 7: July U.S. Employment Situation, June consumer credit, and the weekly scoring-window close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, geopolitical claims remain unresolved, estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "296569157edb01824029dfaeb1df82b756a157bf48bdb0081cb2024d6cefd476",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "e496a6c0e751078d730b4b2fdedf768e27a8fd4529bf826667a3fb4bb7b27745",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "3fc072dfc8635ac5f743433db1f8bbfb56ba65fde78604fe5be5c329b66985e1",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "9c90d67fa3be6561463b91a8b921654ba73f287ba1510db887d1c84e30a3b2a3",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "cb90fa9b59ded50ab5775c7b3fc51705702d9f201896cd4978de9f5071a2ba4e",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "ba988c2ff5d290710000695c99c305f5272d8827b4847c14921a9415fad61e44",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "5e3ceeccf920ee99581b5aa30f7b9961dea1bbeaf0e83f59951e24d135835be8",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "1a844da9c59ab06e30e88b53a60f08b23075e0cfd4df40bd80afc8570a93c261",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-31-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Overweight the Amazon-driven discretionary sector for post-earnings drift, energy equities backed by war-constrained oil supply, China on improving relative momentum and GDP data, and large value as low-vol ballast against elevated rates.
Tilt toward earnings momentum (XLY), supply-driven energy strength, and China relative momentum, funded away from expensive mega-cap growth after mixed reactions (Apple -7.4%, Meta margin compression).
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid mega-cap earnings and resilient spending support the index",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 +1.0% for the week, +9.4% YTD, closed 7,489.72",
"10y yield rose to 4.71%; FOMC held rates with 3 hawkish dissents"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "N/A benchmark case; used as hurdle only",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Rising yields and elevated inflation (core PCE 3.4% annualized in Q2) cap multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Post-earnings drift on a blowout Amazon quarter with strong Q3 guidance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Amazon net sales $200.6B +20%, AWS +37%, operating income $27.5B; stock +15.3%",
"XLY +5.01% active over 5 days but -6.43% prior 16-day active, so not extended on trend"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLY closes below its pre-Amazon-earnings level",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"reversal_case": "Amazon FCF was -$7.6B TTM on capex surge; profit-taking after the pop",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-Amazon-earnings drift; July jobs report Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained relative uptrend with supportive growth data and low SPY correlation",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"China Q2 GDP +4.3% y/y, +0.9% q/q",
"MCHI +3.54% 5-day active and +4.41% prior active; drawdown only -2.22%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI underperforms SPY by more than 2% intraweek",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Geopolitical or policy shock; 15% below 52w high signals lingering skepticism",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued flows on stabilizing China growth data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Structural supply deficit persists while diplomatic talks remain unresolved",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $87.93; global supply 9.4 mb/d below pre-war; Gulf exports 16.1 vs 24 mb/d",
"No Hormuz agreement reached; OPEC+ only adding 188 kb/d in September",
"XLE prior 16-day active +13.81% with modest -3.44% drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Breakthrough Iran deal reopens Hormuz, unwinding the war premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran negotiation headlines during the week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated yields and sticky inflation favor value over growth",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD +2.70% prior active, only -0.09% from 52w high, 9.9% volatility",
"10y at 4.71% pressures long-duration growth valuations"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield falls below 4.5% on weak data, sparking growth rotation",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Soft jobs data drives yields down and growth re-rates",
"time_window_catalyst": "Loan officer survey Aug 3; payrolls Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply deficit could keep spot prices elevated",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO +25% over 21 days but -6.6% 5-day active; 61.6% volatility",
"US signaled holding off Iran strikes with possible Hormuz reopening parameters"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Any confirmed reopening framework; prefer lower-beta XLE in same cluster",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation headlines could crush the war premium; extreme volatility",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/Hormuz negotiation headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid if Middle East tensions re-escalate",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU roughly flat (-0.08% 5-day, +0.28% 21-day) despite geopolitical stress",
"Rising real yields with 10y at 4.71%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Base forecast below SPY hurdle; no clear catalyst",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Higher yields and possible de-escalation weigh on gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines through Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep pullback could mean-revert if yields stabilize",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLU -5.29% 5-day active despite +4.31% prior active",
"10y yield rising to 4.71% pressures rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Base below SPY hurdle; rate headwind dominates",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Continued yield rise extends underperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Payrolls Aug 7 rate reaction"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.495,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"An Iran/Hormuz agreement could collapse oil prices and energy equities",
"Hot July payrolls or inflation could push 10y yields above 4.8%, pressuring all equities",
"Amazon-driven XLY gains may mean-revert after the 15% pop",
"China policy or geopolitical headlines can reverse momentum quickly"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLY closes below its pre-Amazon-earnings level",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"rationale": "Amazon +15.3% on strong results (sales +20%, AWS +37%) anchors the sector with post-earnings drift potential.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-Amazon-earnings drift; July jobs report Aug 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI underperforms SPY by more than 2% intraweek",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive relative momentum (+3.5% 5-day active, +4.4% prior active), Q2 GDP 4.3% y/y, modest drawdown and 15% below 52w high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued flows on stabilizing China growth data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed Iran deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent $87.93 with 9.4 mb/d supply shortfall from war; XLE equities lag the oil move with lower volatility than USO.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Hormuz situation; OPEC+ September adjustment announced Aug 2"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rate rally rotating leadership back to long-duration growth",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Steady prior active trend (+2.7%), near 52w high, low volatility ballast in an elevated-rate environment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Loan officer survey Aug 3; rates staying elevated favor value"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.795,
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight the Amazon-driven discretionary sector for post-earnings drift, energy equities backed by war-constrained oil supply, China on improving relative momentum and GDP data, and large value as low-vol ballast against elevated rates.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt toward earnings momentum (XLY), supply-driven energy strength, and China relative momentum, funded away from expensive mega-cap growth after mixed reactions (Apple -7.4%, Meta margin compression).",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27762,
"latency_seconds": 46.5535873870831,
"output_tokens": 3424,
"total_tokens": 31186
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Anchor in SPY for broad participation, add China and Europe for stronger recent active returns and favorable risk profiles while keeping each international cluster within caps.
Balanced SPY core with two international tilts showing recent positive relative strength.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Positive breadth and earnings momentum carry into week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 +1.0% weekly, +9.4% YTD",
"Strong mega-cap earnings Amazon +20% sales, Microsoft Azure +43%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below entry on payrolls disappointment",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls and elevated inflation dampen sentiment",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 Employment Situation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "EM inflows and cheap valuation drive rebound",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Best 5s active return +3.54%",
"GDP +4.3% yoy, -15% from 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "China active return turns negative vs SPY",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Policy disappointment or trade tension reverses gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "EM risk appetite this week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable ECB and near-high momentum persist",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.37% 5s active return",
"Near 52w high, low drawdown -2.53%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Europe closes below entry",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Euro-area inflation uptick pressures equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Consumer spending strength continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Huge +5.01% 5s active return",
"Amazon +15.3% monthly"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLY underperforms SPY",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"reversal_case": "Overbought sharp reversal after strong run",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sentiment"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Software rebound continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+6.41% 5s active return",
"Deep -19.69% 52w drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IGV underperforms SPY",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility mean-reversion",
"time_window_catalyst": "AMD results Aug 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand from geopolitics",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Negative -1.17% 5s active",
"Rising yields headwind"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold falls with rising yields",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real rates pressure gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran situation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply disruptions persist",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-6.60% 5s active despite +33% prior",
"OPEC+ 188kbpd adjustment"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil continues sharp decline",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Strait reopening collapses prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/Hormuz resolution"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate stabilization aids bonds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Rising 10y yield 4.71%",
"-1.18% 5s active return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise further",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation pushes yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "Payrolls and inflation data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.14,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Weak August 7 payrolls could trigger broad equity drawdown",
"China rebound may reverse quickly given high volatility",
"Rising 10-year yields pressure equities"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Weak payrolls print sparks equity selloff below entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad large-cap exposure with positive weekly momentum and strong mega-cap earnings from Amazon, Microsoft, Meta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 7 Employment Situation report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "China equity active return turns negative vs SPY",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Strongest recent active return (+3.54% 5s) with deep 52w drawdown, GDP growth 4.3% supports rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued EM inflows this week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Europe underperforms SPY over window",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Positive active return (+1.37% 5s), low drawdown, near 52w high, stable ECB policy.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area data stability"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.49,
"portfolio_rationale": "Anchor in SPY for broad participation, add China and Europe for stronger recent active returns and favorable risk profiles while keeping each international cluster within caps.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Balanced SPY core with two international tilts showing recent positive relative strength.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27768,
"latency_seconds": 30.361752903088927,
"output_tokens": 2204,
"total_tokens": 29972
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Core SPY plus three lower-correlation sleeves with supported base cases: energy supply tightness, defensive healthcare into Lilly earnings, and steady European equity. Avoids stretched, very high-volatility tech and crypto sleeves ahead of payrolls.
Modest tilt away from crowded mega-cap tech into energy, healthcare, and Europe while holding 40% SPY, targeting small positive alpha with contained tracking error.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity, strong mega-cap cloud results support drift higher.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY +1.10% over 5 sessions, +0.17% over 21",
"S&P 500 up 9.4% YTD, small July loss",
"10-year yield 4.71%, FOMC held at 3.50-3.75% with three hawkish dissents"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Payrolls shock or yields above 4.9% breaking SPY below 21-day low",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, hawkish dissents, and payrolls risk on Aug 7.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent supply deficit and unresolved Hormuz keep crude bid.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +13.81%",
"Brent $87.93, June supply 9.4 mb/d below pre-war",
"OPEC+ 188k b/d September adjustment; JMMC flags infrastructure risk"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Announced Hormuz reopening with Brent below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "US-Iran deal and Hormuz reopening would compress the war premium; USO already -5.5% over 5 sessions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/Hormuz headlines through Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid with negative SPY beta if data disappoints; earnings catalyst.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +2.82%",
"Volatility 20.97%, max 21-day drawdown -3.74%",
"Eli Lilly results Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 2% versus SPY intra-window",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "3-session return -2.82% shows near-term weakness; risk-on tech leadership hurts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady policy, contained core inflation, strong relative trend with low drawdown.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"5-session active return +1.37%, prior 16-session +1.65%",
"Only -0.44% from 52-week high, vol 15.43%",
"ECB on hold; core euro inflation 2.5%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK trails SPY by more than 1.5% mid-window",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Energy inflation 10% and euro strength could pressure exporters.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area data and US payrolls spillover Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce with AMD catalyst and heavy volume z-score 2.43.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Volatility 51%, 21-day drawdown -18.73%",
"Prior 16-session active -8.64%, 5-session active -4.78%",
"AMD results Aug 4"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "AMD guidance miss driving SMH down more than 5%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility, Micron -5.9%, 19% below 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "AMD results Aug 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation and geopolitics support safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"5-session active -1.17%, 21-day return +0.28%",
"25% below 52-week high",
"Core PCE 3.3% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield above 4.85%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising 10-year yield at 4.71% pressures real rates and gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Payrolls Aug 7 rate reaction"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"AGG 5-session active -1.19%",
"TLT -3.82% over 21 sessions",
"Hawkish FOMC dissents, elevated inflation"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.05,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Core inflation surprise pushing yields higher",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Sticky 5.1% PCE inflation and hawkish Fed keep yields rising.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Payrolls and productivity data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend and risk appetite could resume.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +7.83% but 5-session -3.05%",
"Volatility 31.98%",
"50% below 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "IBIT breaks below its 21-day low",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "Recent rollover and high volatility with no supplied catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.19,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A confirmed Iran agreement and Hormuz reopening could sharply cut oil and energy equities",
"Hot payrolls or higher yields could hit defensives and Europe more than SPY",
"Mega-cap tech continuation would leave SPY ahead of this diversified mix",
"Eli Lilly earnings disappointment drags healthcare"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Payrolls shock or 10-year yield above 4.9% driving SPY below its 21-day low",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core given elevated macro uncertainty and a heavy data week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed Hormuz reopening agreement sending Brent below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend with supply still 9.4 mb/d below pre-war levels and unresolved Hormuz situation; negative SPY beta diversifies.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/Hormuz negotiation headlines and OPEC+ September adjustment"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Lilly miss or policy headline pushing XLV down more than 2%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive prior active return, low drawdown, and a major catalyst in Eli Lilly results.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Eli Lilly results Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK underperforming SPY by more than 1.5% mid-window or sharp euro reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Positive 5-day active return, low volatility, near 52-week high, ECB on hold with contained core inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Euro-area data and US payrolls spillover Aug 7"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.49,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SPY plus three lower-correlation sleeves with supported base cases: energy supply tightness, defensive healthcare into Lilly earnings, and steady European equity. Avoids stretched, very high-volatility tech and crypto sleeves ahead of payrolls.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Modest tilt away from crowded mega-cap tech into energy, healthcare, and Europe while holding 40% SPY, targeting small positive alpha with contained tracking error.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27762,
"latency_seconds": 45.01062787696719,
"output_tokens": 3029,
"total_tokens": 30791
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
This portfolio balances core equity exposure with commodities that have strong recent momentum and geopolitical catalysts. The allocation to OIL and GOLD provides potential upside and diversification against equity market volatility.
A balanced approach combining core equities with commodities for potential upside and diversification.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued solid economic activity and corporate earnings growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72, up 0.7% on July 31.",
"S&P 500 gained 1.0% for the week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in the employment report leading to a broad market sell-off.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A weak employment report or unexpected inflation spike.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July U.S. Employment Situation report on August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing geopolitical tensions and constrained supply.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 1.2% on July 31 to $87.93 per barrel.",
"Seven OPEC+ countries decided August 2 to implement a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment in September."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or unexpected increase in global supply.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "A sudden de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or unexpected increase in global supply.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and OPEC+ production adjustments."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued geopolitical uncertainty and potential for rate cuts.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Gold has a quality evidence score of 0.576.",
"Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical uncertainty and potential shifts in Fed rate expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings from mega-cap tech companies.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite gained 1.6% for the week.",
"Apple reported quarterly revenue of $109.4 billion, up 16%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in tech earnings or a sharp rise in interest rates.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "A rise in interest rates negatively impacting growth stock valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "AMD results after the U.S. close on August 4."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A flight to safety amid economic uncertainty or a weak employment report.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31.",
"FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong employment report leading to a significant rise in Treasury yields.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A strong employment report leading to higher interest rate expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July U.S. Employment Situation report on August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving global growth and a weaker US dollar.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year.",
"South Korea's Kospi rose 17.9% on July 31 but remained down 22% for July."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant strengthening of the US dollar or a sharp slowdown in global growth.",
"option_id": "EMERGING_MARKETS",
"reversal_case": "A stronger US dollar or escalating geopolitical tensions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global economic data releases and currency movements."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.225,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Geopolitical tensions de-escalating, leading to a drop in oil and gold prices.",
"A stronger-than-expected employment report causing a spike in interest rates and a broad market sell-off.",
"Unexpected shifts in OPEC+ production policy impacting oil prices."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in the employment report leading to a broad market sell-off.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core equity exposure with solid recent performance and broad diversification.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July U.S. Employment Situation report on August 7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden de-escalation of geopolitical tensions or unexpected increase in global supply.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum and geopolitical tensions supporting prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and OPEC+ production adjustments."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven asset amid geopolitical uncertainty and potential for rate cuts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical uncertainty and potential shifts in Fed rate expectations."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.025,
"portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio balances core equity exposure with commodities that have strong recent momentum and geopolitical catalysts. The allocation to OIL and GOLD provides potential upside and diversification against equity market volatility.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach combining core equities with commodities for potential upside and diversification.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from SPY toward options with base forecasts above SPY: energy/oil for unresolved geopolitical supply risk, agriculture for high quality and diversification, China for international relative strength, and large value for lower-volatility U.S. equity breadth. Energy exposure is capped at 50% as required.
Base case expects commodity-linked and value/international exposures to outperform SPY over the one-week window. The main edge is near-term event risk in oil supply plus cross-sectional quality in agriculture and large value.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad U.S. large-cap equities could continue higher if upcoming labor and credit data support solid activity without a renewed rate shock.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed July 31 up 0.7% on the day and up 1.0% for the week.",
"Through July 31, the S&P 500 was up 9.4% in 2026 but finished July with a small loss.",
"SPY 21-session volatility was 12.38% and distance from 52-week high was -1.40%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks recent relative support with rising yields and negative breadth through the week.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, a 4.71% ten-year Treasury yield, and soft payroll revisions could pressure valuations and risk appetite.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3-7 U.S. construction spending, SLOOS, JOLTS, productivity, unemployment claims, and July Employment Situation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Unresolved Gulf export disruption and infrastructure-route risk can keep a geopolitical risk premium in crude during the scoring week.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 1.2% on July 31 to $87.93 per barrel.",
"June global oil supply was estimated 9.4 million barrels per day below its pre-war level and Gulf exports were 16.1 million barrels per day versus 24 million before the war.",
"OIL had prior 16-session active return of 33.28% and quality evidence score of 0.761."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or rapid evidence that disrupted Gulf exports normalize.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The United States said it would hold off on new Iran strikes and claimed parameters for a Strait reopening agreement, which could deflate the risk premium if confirmed.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to August 2 Strait of Hormuz/Iran statements, OPEC+ production adjustment, and any supply-route headlines before August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities could benefit if oil prices retain geopolitical risk premium and investors favor cash-flow-sensitive energy names.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy had prior 16-session active return of 13.81%.",
"Energy quality evidence score was 0.744 with prior active rank 0.955 and recent pullback rank 0.657.",
"Brent crude was $87.93 and Gulf exports remained well below pre-war levels in the briefing."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls sharply on credible de-escalation or confirmed restoration of Gulf exports.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Energy equities can lag if crude reverses on de-escalation or if equity risk appetite weakens despite higher oil.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price response to unresolved Gulf export disruption, OPEC+ September adjustment, and energy-infrastructure risk headlines during the scoring week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend with a recent pullback and low equity beta may attract diversifying flows if inflation or commodity concerns persist.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Agriculture had the highest quality evidence score at 0.838.",
"Agriculture prior 16-session active return was 6.05% while active return over the latest 5 sessions was -3.68%.",
"Agriculture showed low SPY correlation of 0.097 and beta of 0.100."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity reversal with dollar strength and no agriculture-specific support.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "Recent weakness could continue if the pullback reflects a fundamental commodity downturn rather than temporary positioning.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of commodity/inflation hedging flows and any weather, crop, inventory, or dollar-driven commodity moves before August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent relative strength may persist if investors reward China growth data and international risk appetite remains firm.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.",
"CHINA had active return of 3.54% over the latest 5 sessions and prior 16-session active return of 4.41%.",
"CHINA beta to SPY was 0.674 with 21-session volatility of 19.35%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed emerging-market risk-off or China ETF losing its recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "China exposure can reverse quickly on policy, currency, or geopolitical risk, and its recent pullback rank was weak at 0.030.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Follow-through in international risk appetite after reported China Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and July 31 relative strength."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value could keep outperforming if breadth improves and investors prefer lower-volatility, less growth-rate-sensitive U.S. equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE had prior 16-session active return of 2.70% and latest 5-session active return of 0.35%.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 9.90% with max drawdown of -1.31%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.619, including shallow drawdown rank of 0.925."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth reaccelerates while value sectors lag and relative strength turns negative.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A renewed mega-cap growth rally or falling preference for defensive/value exposures could cause value to lag SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3-7 U.S. macro releases, especially labor and credit data, supporting value/cyclical breadth over concentrated growth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent pullback after a strong prior trend could rebound if yields stabilize and investors rotate into rate-sensitive defensives.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"REAL_ESTATE had the second-highest quality evidence score at 0.814.",
"It had prior 16-session active return of 4.92% but latest 5-session active return of -3.01%.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.71% late July 31."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield continues rising and real estate underperforms SPY on further rate pressure.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Higher Treasury yields and rate uncertainty directly challenge real estate valuations and financing conditions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3-7 U.S. macro and labor data affecting Treasury yields and rate-sensitive equity flows."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short-term momentum could persist if growth-stock sentiment improves after strong cloud and AI-related revenue data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE had latest 5-session active return of 6.41% and 3-session return of 3.05%.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was -4.83% and quality evidence score was only 0.120.",
"Technology-related earnings in the briefing were mixed, with strong Microsoft cloud growth but Meta operating income down 8% and net income down 14%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Software gives back recent relative gains or high-beta growth sells off on rates or earnings disappointment.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Low quality evidence, weak prior trend, and high growth-stock sensitivity leave it vulnerable to profit-taking or rate pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "AMD results after the August 4 U.S. close and broader technology sentiment during the scoring week."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.48,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A confirmed Strait of Hormuz reopening or Middle East de-escalation could reverse oil and energy exposure quickly.",
"August 7 employment data or other U.S. macro releases could trigger broad risk-off and hurt equities and commodities together.",
"A mega-cap technology rebound could lift SPY more than the selected value, China, and commodity exposures.",
"Commodity positions may be volatile and can reverse despite favorable prior trend and pullback evidence."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or rapid evidence that disrupted Gulf exports normalize.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Crude has the clearest one-week event risk: large supply disruption remains unresolved despite reported U.S. de-escalation comments, while the quality table shows top prior trend and pullback ranks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Market reaction to August 2 Strait of Hormuz/Iran statements, OPEC+ production adjustment, and any supply-route headlines before August 7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls sharply on credible de-escalation or confirmed restoration of Gulf exports.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities provide related but less direct exposure to tight oil conditions, supported by strong prior active return and high quality evidence while respecting the 50% energy cluster cap.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price response to unresolved Gulf export disruption, OPEC+ September adjustment, and energy-infrastructure risk headlines during the scoring week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity reversal with dollar strength and no agriculture-specific support.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "Agriculture has the highest quality evidence score in the supplied table, low SPY beta, and a meaningful prior active trend with recent pullback, giving diversifying alpha potential.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of commodity/inflation hedging flows and any weather, crop, inventory, or dollar-driven commodity moves before August 7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed emerging-market risk-off or China ETF losing its recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "China combines positive prior and recent active returns with modest SPY beta, giving international equity upside that is less directly tied to U.S. large-cap positioning.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Follow-through in international risk appetite after reported China Q2 GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and July 31 relative strength."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth reaccelerates while value sectors lag and relative strength turns negative.",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Large value offers a lower-volatility U.S. equity tilt with strong prior active return and shallow drawdown, useful if the week favors breadth and defensives over mega-cap growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3-7 U.S. macro releases, especially labor and credit data, supporting value/cyclical breadth over concentrated growth."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.73,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from SPY toward options with base forecasts above SPY: energy/oil for unresolved geopolitical supply risk, agriculture for high quality and diversification, China for international relative strength, and large value for lower-volatility U.S. equity breadth. Energy exposure is capped at 50% as required.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Base case expects commodity-linked and value/international exposures to outperform SPY over the one-week window. The main edge is near-term event risk in oil supply plus cross-sectional quality in agriculture and large value.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15422,
"latency_seconds": 35.93245090614073,
"output_tokens": 2820,
"reasoning_tokens": 197,
"total_tokens": 18242
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines four distinct return drivers with each active forecast above SPY. It favors supported medium-term trends and pullback candidates while limiting any one non-benchmark cluster to 30%.
Energy supply disruption, resilient UK and China relative trends, and agriculture's high-quality pullback setup offer better one-week base cases than SPY. Diversification reduces dependence on a single macro outcome.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings and solid private domestic demand sustain the recent advance.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 1.10% over five sessions but only 0.17% over 21 sessions.",
"The index was 1.40% below its 52-week high with 12.38% volatility.",
"Inflation remained elevated and July payrolls are due August 7."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad market breadth improves and SPY closes decisively above its recent high.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, a 4.71% ten-year yield, and weak payroll revisions pressure valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "JOLTS, productivity, claims, and the August 7 Employment Situation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Constrained supply and unresolved maritime risk keep crude elevated and support energy equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy's prior 16-session active return was 13.81% and its quality score was 0.744.",
"Global oil supply was estimated 9.4 million barrels per day below its pre-war level.",
"No Hormuz agreement had been reached by the cutoff."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A credible Hormuz reopening agreement accompanied by a sharp decline in crude prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A credible Hormuz reopening framework rapidly removes the geopolitical premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiations, Middle East supply headlines, and crude-price response through August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Established relative strength persists if growth and policy sentiment remain stable.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"China posted 3.54% five-session active return and 4.41% prior active return.",
"Second-quarter real GDP grew 4.3% year over year.",
"Its quality score was only 0.530, with a 0.030 recent-pullback rank."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "China equities lose recent relative strength and break below the July 31 weekly range.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "The recent advance becomes crowded and weak growth or policy disappointment triggers profit-taking.",
"time_window_catalyst": "China growth and policy sentiment, global risk appetite, and currency moves through August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative trend and exposure to energy and dividend-oriented sectors support further gains.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"UK equities had 1.40% five-session active return and 3.72% prior active return.",
"The option was only 0.55% below its 52-week high.",
"Its quality score was 0.572 with 15.42% volatility."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "UK equities underperform SPY while sterling and energy-linked shares weaken.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"reversal_case": "Sterling strength, falling energy prices, or a global risk-off move weighs on UK shares.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global energy, sterling, and risk-sentiment moves through August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The recent pullback mean-reverts while the strong prior trend and low equity correlation persist.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Agriculture had the highest quality evidence score at 0.838.",
"Its prior active return was 6.05%, while five-session active return fell 3.68%.",
"Its 63-session SPY correlation was only 0.097."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture extends its decline below the recent drawdown while broad commodity prices weaken.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "The pullback reflects a genuine deterioration in crop or inventory fundamentals and extends.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weather, crop-condition, inventory, and commodity-flow developments through August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A weak labor report lowers yields and sparks a rebound in rate-sensitive equities.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Real estate's quality score was 0.814 and prior active return was 4.92%.",
"It underperformed SPY by 3.01% over five sessions.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.71%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "The ten-year yield rises further while real estate makes a new 21-session low.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Persistent inflation and rising yields extend the recent decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "JOLTS, claims, productivity, and the August 7 Employment Situation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable policy rates generate a small positive carry return with minimal volatility.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasuries had 0.23% volatility and no meaningful drawdown.",
"The federal-funds target remained 3.50% to 3.75%.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.684."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "An abrupt policy or liquidity shock disrupts Treasury-bill pricing.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A sharp repricing toward rate cuts marginally favors longer duration instead.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Scheduled US labor and credit data through August 7."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The pullback stabilizes and the strong prior trend resumes with improving risk appetite.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Bitcoin ETF prior active return was 7.83% but five-session active return was -3.05%.",
"Its quality score was 0.743.",
"Volatility was 31.98% and it remained 50.01% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Bitcoin ETF breaks below its recent pullback low on expanding volume.",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and weakening momentum produce another sharp drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "US labor data, liquidity expectations, and digital-asset flows through August 7."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.44,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A credible Hormuz reopening agreement could sharply reverse oil and energy exposure.",
"The August 7 employment report could lift yields and favor US mega-cap equities over the portfolio.",
"China policy or geopolitical disappointment could reverse recent relative strength.",
"Commodity pullbacks may persist despite strong prior trends."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "A credible Hormuz reopening agreement accompanied by a sharp decline in crude prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend and constrained global supply support energy equities, while the smaller allocation reflects acute geopolitical reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiations, Middle East supply headlines, and crude-price response through August 7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "China equities lose recent relative strength and break below the July 31 weekly range.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive short- and prior-window relative performance provides a continuation setup, tempered by weak recent-pullback evidence and policy risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "China growth and policy sentiment, global risk appetite, and currency moves through August 7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "UK equities underperform SPY while sterling and energy-linked shares weaken.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"rationale": "Positive recent and prior relative returns, moderate volatility, and shallow drawdown offer a comparatively stable international-equity trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global energy, sterling, and risk-sentiment moves through August 7."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture extends its decline below the recent drawdown while broad commodity prices weaken.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "The highest quality score and strong prior trend create a pullback-rebound setup with low SPY correlation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weather, crop-condition, inventory, and commodity-flow developments through August 7."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.69,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines four distinct return drivers with each active forecast above SPY. It favors supported medium-term trends and pullback candidates while limiting any one non-benchmark cluster to 30%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy supply disruption, resilient UK and China relative trends, and agriculture's high-quality pullback setup offer better one-week base cases than SPY. Diversification reduces dependence on a single macro outcome.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"output_tokens": 1978,
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"total_tokens": 17402
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}xai-grok-4-3
100% SP500 allocation selected after screening 7 additional candidates; none demonstrated a base-case return strictly exceeding SPY over the one-week window.
SPY base forecast of 0.6% used as hurdle; portfolio expected return equals benchmark with zero alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Positive breadth and recent weekly gain persist into August 7 close",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7489.72 up 0.7% on July 31",
"Week-to-date gain of 1.0%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on August 7",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak July employment report triggers risk-off rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report and weekly claims on August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European equity momentum continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s of 1.37%",
"Prior 16s active return 1.65%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro-area flash inflation exceeds 3.2%",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Euro-area inflation print at 2.9% pressures ECB outlook",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil supply constraints support prices",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at 87.93 up 1.2%",
"OPEC+ production adjustment decision"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent closes below 85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Strait of Hormuz reopening reduces risk premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 2 US statements on Iran"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rates stabilize near current levels",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year yield at 4.71%",
"FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield exceeds 4.85%",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Stronger growth data pushes yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 Senior Loan Officer Survey"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5s return -0.08%",
"Quality evidence score 0.576"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold price falls below 2300",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "US dollar strengthens further",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value factor rotation continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s of 0.35%",
"Quality evidence score 0.619"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by more than 1% over window",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound on earnings",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation into rate-sensitive sectors",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.799",
"Recent pullback rank 0.985"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLU closes more than 3% below July 31 level",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "10-year yield rises sharply",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Risk-on sentiment supports crypto",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.743",
"Prior 16s active return 7.83%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Bitcoin ETF closes below 50% of July 31 level",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "Broader equity weakness spills into crypto",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.52,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July employment data surprise on August 7",
"Continued 10-year yield rise above 4.8%",
"Geopolitical developments around Strait of Hormuz"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7400 on August 7",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "No active holding clears the base-forecast hurdle above SPY; SPY is the benchmark proxy with neutral-to-positive near-term momentum from recent breadth data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment report and weekly claims on August 7"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"portfolio_rationale": "100% SP500 allocation selected after screening 7 additional candidates; none demonstrated a base-case return strictly exceeding SPY over the one-week window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base forecast of 0.6% used as hurdle; portfolio expected return equals benchmark with zero alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15648,
"latency_seconds": 11.486939576920122,
"output_tokens": 1499,
"reasoning_tokens": 539,
"total_tokens": 17686
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in four clusters with base forecasts above SPY, leveraging recent relative strength in software, China, energy, and copper while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Short-window catalysts around earnings, jobs, and geopolitics favor these over pure beta.
Selected holdings clear the SPY base hurdle on supplied relative trends and briefing catalysts; equal-weight style avoided due to weaker recent breadth. Expected alpha driven by non-benchmark exposures under 50% per cluster.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid activity description and mega-cap earnings support grind higher",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed July 31 up 0.7% and gained 1.0% for the week",
"FOMC held funds rate 3.50-3.75% with elevated inflation and uncertainty",
"July employment situation scheduled for August 7"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below recent weekly low on jobs miss",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft payrolls or higher claims reverse the weekly gain",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Earnings momentum and AI/software spend narrative persists into AMD",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE 3-session return 3.05% and 5s active return +6.41%",
"Microsoft cloud and Azure growth strong in reported quarter",
"AMD results scheduled after close August 4"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Post-AMD gap down exceeding 3% in software complex",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility_21s and distance from 52w high invite profit-taking",
"time_window_catalyst": "AMD results August 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative strength and EM catch-up continues absent new shocks",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CHINA 3s return 2.55% and 5s active return +3.54%",
"China Q2 real GDP 4.3% y/y already reported",
"prior_16s_active_return +4.41%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI underperforms SPY by >2% on risk-off day",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Geopolitical headlines or USD rebound hit China beta",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any further Hormuz parameter clarity before August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply tightness and infrastructure risk keep energy bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY prior_16s_active_return +13.81% and quality score elevated",
"Brent at $87.93 with supply 9.4 mb/d below pre-war",
"OPEC+ 188kbd adjustment decided for September"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent drops >5% on confirmed reopening progress",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "US hold on Iran strikes and claimed Hormuz parameters reverse premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz statements through August 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Industrial metals follow-through on China and construction data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"COPPER 3s return 3.21% and 5s active +2.06%",
"prior_16s_active_return +3.98%",
"China growth backdrop and industrial linkage"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "CPER reverses full 3s gain on weak data",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"reversal_case": "Stronger dollar or growth scare hits copper beta",
"time_window_catalyst": "June construction spending August 3"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior trend resumes if risk appetite holds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BITCOIN_ETF prior_16s_active +7.83% and high quality score",
"5s active return -3.05% showing recent pullback",
"High volatility_21s 31.98%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "IBIT breaks recent 21s max drawdown low",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "Jobs data or rates spike extends crypto drawdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk sentiment around August 7 employment report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative value and lower energy shock supports grind",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"EUROPE 5s active return +1.37% and prior_16s_active +1.65%",
"ECB kept rates unchanged July 23",
"Euro-area flash inflation 2.9%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK underperforms SPY on rising yields",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Stronger USD or weak US data spills to Europe",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond general risk sentiment"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid if geopolitics worsen",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD 21s return near flat and distance_52w_high -25%",
"Ten-year yield at 4.71%",
"IAU 5s active -1.17%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise further and IAU makes new 21s low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields and de-escalation cap gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines on Iran/Hormuz"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.82,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July employment report August 7 could trigger broad risk-off if weak",
"Hormuz de-escalation statements reverse energy and commodity gains",
"Tech earnings follow-through fails after AMD",
"Rising Treasury yields pressure growth and EM simultaneously"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal in Nasdaq or software names on weak AMD or risk-off jobs data",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative performance and software exposure supported by large-cap tech earnings momentum into the short window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "AMD results August 4 and residual tech earnings follow-through before August 7 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed geopolitical escalation or sharp USD strength reversing EM flows",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive prior active trend and recent outperformance versus SPY with China GDP data already released.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued EM risk appetite and any Hormuz de-escalation spillover before exit"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Confirmed Strait reopening agreement driving oil sharply lower",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Elevated oil prices from supply disruption and strong prior active return support energy equities over the week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "OPEC+ adjustment news and unresolved Hormuz parameters into August 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity selloff or stronger USD pressuring metals",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "Positive active returns and industrial demand linkage with China growth backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "China-linked commodity sentiment and any construction data reaction August 3"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.22,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in four clusters with base forecasts above SPY, leveraging recent relative strength in software, China, energy, and copper while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Short-window catalysts around earnings, jobs, and geopolitics favor these over pure beta.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings clear the SPY base hurdle on supplied relative trends and briefing catalysts; equal-weight style avoided due to weaker recent breadth. Expected alpha driven by non-benchmark exposures under 50% per cluster.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-31-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16502,
"latency_seconds": 54.39969940087758,
"output_tokens": 2374,
"reasoning_tokens": 877,
"total_tokens": 19753
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)30%China Equities (MCHI)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)50%China Equities (MCHI)25%Europe Equities (VGK)25% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Europe Equities (VGK)20% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Crude Oil (USO)25%Gold (IAU)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)20%China Equities (MCHI)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%China Equities (MCHI)25%United Kingdom Equities (EWU)25%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)20% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.52 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Software (IGV)30%China Equities (MCHI)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Copper (CPER)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-31 | 239.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-31 | 92.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-31 | 27.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-31 | 29.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-31 | 115.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-31 | 147.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-31 | 35.64 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-31 | 36.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-31 | 58.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-31 | 17.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-31 | 59.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-31 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-31 | 55.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-31 | 108.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-31 | 116.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-31 | 85.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-31 | 39.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-31 | 129.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-31 | 91.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-31 | 70.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-31 | 94.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-31 | 58.75 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-31 | 59.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-31 | 215.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-31 | 14.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-31 | 106.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-31 | 90.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-31 | 56.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-31 | 76.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-31 | 162.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-31 | 79.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-31 | 49.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-31 | 179.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-31 | 92.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-31 | 47.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-31 | 106.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-31 | 92.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-31 | 57.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-31 | 82.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-31 | 50.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-31 | 100.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-31 | 76.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-31 | 105.64 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-31 | 687.99 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-31 | 45.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-31 | 76.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-31 | 747.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-31 | 540.53 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-31 | 91.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-31 | 52.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-31 | 94.58 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-31 | 49.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-31 | 63.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-31 | 157.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-31 | 96.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-31 | 175.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-31 | 368.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-31 | 107.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-31 | 48.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-31 | 97.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-31 | 33.47 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-31 | 28.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-31 | 118.32 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-31 | 251.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-31 | 76.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-31 | 75.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-31 | 299.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-31 | 291.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-31 | 221.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-31 | 44.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 2266cf2a241a...7f4da197 |
| manifest.yaml | 296569157edb...6cefd476 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | e496a6c0e751...b7b27745 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 3fc072dfc863...b66985e1 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 9c90d67fa3be...30a3b2a3 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | cb90fa9b59de...71a2ba4e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | ba988c2ff5d2...fad61e44 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 5e3ceeccf920...35835be8 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |