Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +73.75% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Semiconductors (SMH) is the largest aggregate allocation at +38.75%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 89.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
7 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-17 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
7 artifacts published.
official-20260710
43,396 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Semiconductors (SMH)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-10
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-10T21:49:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-11T07:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-10
- Exit date: 2026-07-17
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-10-1W
Research cutoff: 2026-07-10T21:49:00Z
Round window: July 10, 2026 close to July 17, 2026 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 10 Market Close
- Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,575.39, the Dow rose 0.3% to 52,367.01, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% to 26,281.61. The S&P 500 completed its fourth winning week in five.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude fell 0.4% to $76.01 a barrel. It remained above approximately $72 at the start of the week and below its wartime peak near $120.
- Associated Press reported the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.56% from 4.54% late July 9.
- Associated Press reported South Korea's Kospi rose 2.5%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.2%, and Shanghai fell 1.0%.
## Labor, Inflation, And Policy
- The U.S. Department of Labor reported initial unemployment claims were 215,000 in the week ended July 4, down 2,000. The four-week average fell to 218,750, while continuing claims rose 8,000 to 1.81 million.
- Associated Press reported that the June employment report showed nonfarm payroll growth of 57,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
- The June FOMC minutes reported April total PCE inflation at 3.8% and core PCE inflation at 3.3%; Federal Reserve staff estimated May total PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE inflation at 3.4%.
- The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a unanimous vote at the June meeting.
- The minutes said the median Desk survey path implied no target-range change through the start of 2027 and one rate cut in the second quarter of 2027. Market pricing suggested one mid-2027 rate increase, with the minutes noting an effect from term premiums.
## Technology, Corporate, And Capital-Market Facts
- Associated Press reported Nvidia rose 4% and was the largest single contributor lifting the S&P 500 on July 10.
- SK Hynix American depositary receipts were priced at $149, opened at $170, and closed at $168.01, a 12.8% gain. The sale of 177.9 million receipts raised $26.5 billion.
- Associated Press reported that the United States represented 68.8% of SK Hynix's 2025 revenue and that memory-chip prices had risen as AI-related demand outpaced supply.
- TSMC's public monthly-revenue page showed January-May 2026 consolidated net revenue of NT$1,961.804 billion, up 30.0% from the comparable prior-year period. The page labeled the figures unaudited and did not display a June value at the research cutoff.
- Associated Press reported that Delta Air Lines' spring profit and revenue exceeded analyst expectations and that the midpoint of its summer profit forecast exceeded analyst expectations. Delta shares fell 1.8% on July 10.
- Associated Press reported Circle Internet Group rose 5% after announcing U.S. regulatory approval to establish Circle National Trust.
## Energy And Geopolitical Facts
- Associated Press reported that senior U.S. officials demanded Iran publicly state that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been fully restored and that Iranian forces would stop attacking ships.
- The report said U.S. officials described progress in talks with Iranian leaders while also attributing new attacks in the strait to an internal Iranian power struggle. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity.
- Iran's U.N. diplomat said Iran remained committed to the ceasefire framework if the United States complied with its obligations. President Donald Trump said talks would continue but stated that the ceasefire was no longer in place.
- Federal Reserve source material described uncertainty around the Middle East conflict and its effects on energy prices and inflation as elevated.
## Scheduled Items Before The July 17 Close
- July 13, 12:30 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook.
- July 14, 7:00 a.m. Eastern: JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Q2 results; their calls follow at 8:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m., respectively. Associated Press reported that Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs also report on July 14.
- July 14, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Bureau of Labor Statistics June CPI.
- July 14, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Financial Services Committee.
- July 14: Federal Reserve events on artificial intelligence and financial inclusion, including appearances by Governors Michael Barr and Lisa Cook.
- July 15, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: Chairman Warsh delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee.
- July 15, 1:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the economic outlook.
- July 15, 2:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Beige Book.
- July 16, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Census Bureau June advance retail and food-service sales.
- July 16, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: Census Bureau May manufacturing and trade inventories and sales.
- July 16: TSMC Q2 results and earnings conference call.
- July 16, 7:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on navigating economic shocks.
- July 17, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Census Bureau June housing starts, building permits, and completions.
- July 17, 9:15 a.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization.
## Price Context Note
The separate full-universe appendix is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data and sorted by option order. Trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts.
This briefing contains fixed factual datapoints and scheduled statuses only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options, and the complete mechanical appendix is not selected or performance-sorted.
## Full-Universe Trailing Returns
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-10
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -4.34% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-10 | 0.07% | 0.33% | 1.78% | 3.84% | -4.01% | 0.26% | -0.01% | 75.00% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-10 | 1.37% | 4.34% | 9.35% | 21.97% | 0.00% | 14.77% | -3.17% | 50.00% | -0.35% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-10 | 1.07% | 4.39% | 9.50% | 22.29% | 0.05% | 14.11% | -2.49% | 50.00% | -0.16% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 1.81% | 4.70% | 16.05% | 31.25% | 0.36% | 29.98% | -4.93% | 55.00% | -2.66% | 1.37 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-10 | 2.30% | 3.65% | 4.30% | 16.08% | -0.69% | 21.99% | -5.03% | 55.00% | -3.66% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-10 | 0.01% | 5.26% | 14.23% | 27.13% | 0.92% | 13.25% | -1.39% | 65.00% | -0.36% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-10 | -0.55% | 3.00% | 10.02% | 19.80% | -1.34% | 15.41% | -3.09% | 55.00% | -1.87% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-10 | -0.53% | 5.19% | 14.21% | 33.03% | 0.85% | 16.74% | -2.32% | 55.00% | -1.48% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-10 | -0.61% | 4.67% | 15.83% | 34.20% | 0.33% | 13.39% | -1.83% | 55.00% | -0.80% | 1.04 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-10 | 0.03% | 1.23% | 15.35% | 22.08% | -3.10% | 12.47% | -2.93% | 50.00% | -0.52% | 0.30 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-10 | -1.16% | 2.83% | 6.74% | 6.18% | -1.51% | 14.49% | -1.89% | 55.00% | -1.40% | 0.06 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.66% | 5.64% | 25.45% | 36.38% | 1.30% | 45.79% | -9.50% | 65.00% | -6.79% | 1.50 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 2.87% | 5.31% | 27.42% | 45.34% | 0.97% | 37.91% | -6.75% | 60.00% | -6.16% | 1.67 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 1.86% | 0.83% | -4.77% | 5.95% | -3.50% | 19.65% | -5.75% | 60.00% | -6.49% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 0.10% | 3.51% | -5.39% | 6.74% | -0.82% | 22.44% | -4.21% | 60.00% | -5.47% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -1.02% | -0.92% | 7.49% | 6.60% | -5.25% | 17.78% | -3.57% | 45.00% | -5.36% | -0.04 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -1.77% | 5.69% | 3.11% | 20.04% | 1.35% | 20.57% | -3.04% | 55.00% | -2.19% | 0.35 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 0.16% | 7.03% | 0.82% | 7.32% | 2.70% | 15.17% | -2.08% | 65.00% | -0.77% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -1.08% | 7.49% | 12.93% | 22.23% | 3.15% | 20.96% | -2.77% | 70.00% | -1.96% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 3.49% | -4.77% | 19.63% | 27.99% | -9.11% | 23.31% | -8.69% | 40.00% | -11.33% | -0.18 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -2.15% | 2.98% | 6.31% | 12.30% | -1.35% | 22.22% | -4.50% | 60.00% | -4.32% | 0.78 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -0.76% | 3.86% | 8.25% | 13.04% | -0.48% | 15.56% | -3.10% | 65.00% | -3.59% | 0.17 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -0.51% | -0.34% | 11.44% | 10.48% | -4.68% | 18.29% | -3.31% | 55.00% | -1.75% | 0.31 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.52% | 0.27% | -0.86% | 2.67% | -4.07% | 5.57% | -1.31% | 60.00% | -2.89% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -1.22% | -0.11% | -1.75% | 1.54% | -4.45% | 10.18% | -3.17% | 45.00% | -5.24% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.18% | -0.02% | 0.76% | 3.13% | -4.36% | 4.42% | -0.78% | 60.00% | -0.85% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-10 | -1.09% | -0.30% | -0.67% | 3.37% | -4.64% | 5.49% | -1.70% | 50.00% | -1.99% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 0.77% | 1.36% | 5.48% | -3.57% | 3.23% | -0.39% | 40.00% | -0.20% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.54% | 0.10% | -0.12% | 3.63% | -4.24% | 4.28% | -1.01% | 60.00% | -1.66% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 0.25% | 3.71% | 10.78% | 27.35% | -0.63% | 21.48% | -3.07% | 65.00% | -1.93% | 1.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.44% | 3.88% | 8.17% | 23.73% | -0.46% | 21.82% | -4.34% | 55.00% | -2.20% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.87% | 3.56% | 5.17% | 16.03% | -0.78% | 17.00% | -2.09% | 60.00% | -1.56% | 0.94 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.51% | 6.45% | 12.34% | 35.25% | 2.12% | 25.90% | -4.57% | 70.00% | -2.50% | 1.16 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 4.36% | -1.17% | -14.05% | -1.59% | -5.50% | 19.07% | -8.10% | 50.00% | -19.19% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.52% | 4.23% | -7.29% | -10.80% | -0.11% | 15.29% | -2.54% | 65.00% | -10.83% | 0.62 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-10 | -0.32% | 0.61% | -8.99% | 23.28% | -3.73% | 25.06% | -7.99% | 50.00% | -23.93% | 0.64 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 3.59% | -5.68% | 21.24% | 28.83% | -10.02% | 19.37% | -9.47% | 35.00% | -13.06% | -0.17 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 3.16% | 7.03% | 56.99% | 113.17% | 2.69% | 63.24% | -13.08% | 65.00% | -8.65% | 2.26 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | -1.24% | 0.92% | -11.97% | -15.32% | -3.41% | 28.58% | -8.55% | 45.00% | -21.53% | 1.19 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 2.57% | 3.39% | 20.66% | 45.47% | -0.95% | 42.93% | -7.81% | 60.00% | -9.55% | 1.85 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | -3.09% | -0.29% | -4.06% | 36.92% | -4.63% | 38.85% | -8.23% | 35.00% | -13.79% | 2.15 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 1.33% | 10.46% | 26.97% | 25.33% | 6.12% | 26.23% | -3.12% | 50.00% | -2.52% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-10 | -2.41% | -7.10% | 9.26% | 41.21% | -11.44% | 42.84% | -14.10% | 45.00% | -25.66% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-10 | -1.37% | -7.71% | -11.18% | 44.25% | -12.05% | 33.31% | -15.43% | 45.00% | -21.88% | 1.68 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-10 | -0.28% | 4.16% | 9.33% | 17.25% | -0.17% | 12.13% | -1.83% | 65.00% | -0.33% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-10 | -0.89% | 23.54% | 27.86% | 80.74% | 19.20% | 26.39% | -3.20% | 75.00% | -3.20% | 1.02 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 5.32% | 12.46% | 20.87% | 0.99% | 20.00% | -3.73% | 70.00% | -1.52% | 0.84 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-10 | -3.68% | 6.38% | 2.75% | 27.36% | 2.05% | 26.09% | -4.67% | 60.00% | -4.67% | 1.01 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.52% | 2.10% | 7.86% | 28.10% | -2.23% | 10.48% | -3.08% | 70.00% | -0.90% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | -1.19% | 3.19% | 5.54% | 19.67% | -1.15% | 16.39% | -2.28% | 45.00% | -2.89% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.28% | 2.39% | 9.87% | 10.42% | -1.95% | 16.89% | -4.42% | 55.00% | -4.65% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.88% | 2.84% | 68.54% | 156.63% | -1.50% | 85.64% | -17.82% | 50.00% | -16.28% | 2.61 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.27% | 8.36% | 61.09% | 90.28% | 4.02% | 45.69% | -8.65% | 65.00% | -4.79% | 1.69 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 4.36% | 7.38% | 9.72% | 35.56% | 3.04% | 20.37% | -2.99% | 45.00% | -13.08% | 1.00 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.85% | 2.08% | 6.89% | 28.43% | -2.26% | 23.00% | -5.37% | 50.00% | -6.49% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.28% | 3.17% | -7.81% | 27.44% | -1.17% | 31.20% | -8.61% | 55.00% | -20.13% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.44% | 0.16% | -0.09% | 4.88% | -4.18% | 4.80% | -0.99% | 60.00% | -1.58% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.46% | 0.45% | 0.99% | 5.97% | -3.89% | 2.52% | -0.61% | 60.00% | -0.52% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-10 | -0.22% | 1.09% | 2.24% | 9.51% | -3.25% | 5.37% | -0.65% | 50.00% | -0.44% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.33% | 0.61% | 0.42% | 2.09% | -3.73% | 3.77% | -1.19% | 55.00% | -1.16% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-10 | -1.94% | -6.43% | -25.46% | 59.85% | -10.77% | 49.87% | -18.42% | 50.00% | -48.91% | 1.67 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 1.88% | 0.72% | 5.09% | 9.17% | -3.62% | 27.47% | -8.42% | 55.00% | -6.43% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 3.85% | 5.47% | 7.72% | 11.63% | 1.13% | 13.91% | -1.52% | 60.00% | -3.34% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 4.54% | -19.06% | 53.57% | 44.18% | -23.40% | 41.87% | -23.10% | 35.00% | -28.94% | -1.00 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-10 | 0.18% | 1.21% | 3.88% | 8.19% | -3.13% | 5.04% | -0.74% | 50.00% | -0.49% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-10 | -0.16% | -1.11% | -1.55% | -1.70% | -5.44% | 5.32% | -2.19% | 45.00% | -4.86% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-10 | -0.37% | -0.75% | -2.56% | -9.86% | -5.09% | 5.45% | -1.74% | 35.00% | -9.86% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-10 | 3.90% | 3.28% | -29.18% | -43.83% | -1.06% | 39.56% | -11.79% | 55.00% | -49.18% | 1.79 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-10 | 5.21% | 10.18% | -41.66% | -36.63% | 5.84% | 58.39% | -14.68% | 50.00% | -63.02% | 2.93 | pass |
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-10-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-10'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-11T07:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-10'
exit_date: '2026-07-17'
created_at: '2026-07-10T21:49:28.140474+00:00'
notes: 'Post-close July 10, 2026 one-week portfolio round. The one-week exit snapshot uses the July 17, 2026 close.'# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-10-1W
Research cutoff: 2026-07-10T21:49:00Z
Round window: July 10, 2026 close to July 17, 2026 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 10 Market Close
- Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,575.39, the Dow rose 0.3% to 52,367.01, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% to 26,281.61. The S&P 500 completed its fourth winning week in five.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude fell 0.4% to $76.01 a barrel. It remained above approximately $72 at the start of the week and below its wartime peak near $120.
- Associated Press reported the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.56% from 4.54% late July 9.
- Associated Press reported South Korea's Kospi rose 2.5%, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.2%, and Shanghai fell 1.0%.
## Labor, Inflation, And Policy
- The U.S. Department of Labor reported initial unemployment claims were 215,000 in the week ended July 4, down 2,000. The four-week average fell to 218,750, while continuing claims rose 8,000 to 1.81 million.
- Associated Press reported that the June employment report showed nonfarm payroll growth of 57,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.2%.
- The June FOMC minutes reported April total PCE inflation at 3.8% and core PCE inflation at 3.3%; Federal Reserve staff estimated May total PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE inflation at 3.4%.
- The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a unanimous vote at the June meeting.
- The minutes said the median Desk survey path implied no target-range change through the start of 2027 and one rate cut in the second quarter of 2027. Market pricing suggested one mid-2027 rate increase, with the minutes noting an effect from term premiums.
## Technology, Corporate, And Capital-Market Facts
- Associated Press reported Nvidia rose 4% and was the largest single contributor lifting the S&P 500 on July 10.
- SK Hynix American depositary receipts were priced at $149, opened at $170, and closed at $168.01, a 12.8% gain. The sale of 177.9 million receipts raised $26.5 billion.
- Associated Press reported that the United States represented 68.8% of SK Hynix's 2025 revenue and that memory-chip prices had risen as AI-related demand outpaced supply.
- TSMC's public monthly-revenue page showed January-May 2026 consolidated net revenue of NT$1,961.804 billion, up 30.0% from the comparable prior-year period. The page labeled the figures unaudited and did not display a June value at the research cutoff.
- Associated Press reported that Delta Air Lines' spring profit and revenue exceeded analyst expectations and that the midpoint of its summer profit forecast exceeded analyst expectations. Delta shares fell 1.8% on July 10.
- Associated Press reported Circle Internet Group rose 5% after announcing U.S. regulatory approval to establish Circle National Trust.
## Energy And Geopolitical Facts
- Associated Press reported that senior U.S. officials demanded Iran publicly state that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had been fully restored and that Iranian forces would stop attacking ships.
- The report said U.S. officials described progress in talks with Iranian leaders while also attributing new attacks in the strait to an internal Iranian power struggle. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity.
- Iran's U.N. diplomat said Iran remained committed to the ceasefire framework if the United States complied with its obligations. President Donald Trump said talks would continue but stated that the ceasefire was no longer in place.
- Federal Reserve source material described uncertainty around the Middle East conflict and its effects on energy prices and inflation as elevated.
## Scheduled Items Before The July 17 Close
- July 13, 12:30 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks on the economic outlook.
- July 14, 7:00 a.m. Eastern: JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Q2 results; their calls follow at 8:30 a.m. and 10:00 a.m., respectively. Associated Press reported that Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs also report on July 14.
- July 14, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Bureau of Labor Statistics June CPI.
- July 14, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Financial Services Committee.
- July 14: Federal Reserve events on artificial intelligence and financial inclusion, including appearances by Governors Michael Barr and Lisa Cook.
- July 15, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: Chairman Warsh delivers the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee.
- July 15, 1:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook speaks on the economic outlook.
- July 15, 2:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Beige Book.
- July 16, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Census Bureau June advance retail and food-service sales.
- July 16, 10:00 a.m. Eastern: Census Bureau May manufacturing and trade inventories and sales.
- July 16: TSMC Q2 results and earnings conference call.
- July 16, 7:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks on navigating economic shocks.
- July 17, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: Census Bureau June housing starts, building permits, and completions.
- July 17, 9:15 a.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve June industrial production and capacity utilization.
## Price Context Note
The separate full-universe appendix is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data and sorted by option order. Trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts.
This briefing contains fixed factual datapoints and scheduled statuses only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options, and the complete mechanical appendix is not selected or performance-sorted.# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-10
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -4.34% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-10 | 0.07% | 0.33% | 1.78% | 3.84% | -4.01% | 0.26% | -0.01% | 75.00% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-10 | 1.37% | 4.34% | 9.35% | 21.97% | 0.00% | 14.77% | -3.17% | 50.00% | -0.35% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-10 | 1.07% | 4.39% | 9.50% | 22.29% | 0.05% | 14.11% | -2.49% | 50.00% | -0.16% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 1.81% | 4.70% | 16.05% | 31.25% | 0.36% | 29.98% | -4.93% | 55.00% | -2.66% | 1.37 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-10 | 2.30% | 3.65% | 4.30% | 16.08% | -0.69% | 21.99% | -5.03% | 55.00% | -3.66% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-10 | 0.01% | 5.26% | 14.23% | 27.13% | 0.92% | 13.25% | -1.39% | 65.00% | -0.36% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-10 | -0.55% | 3.00% | 10.02% | 19.80% | -1.34% | 15.41% | -3.09% | 55.00% | -1.87% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-10 | -0.53% | 5.19% | 14.21% | 33.03% | 0.85% | 16.74% | -2.32% | 55.00% | -1.48% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-10 | -0.61% | 4.67% | 15.83% | 34.20% | 0.33% | 13.39% | -1.83% | 55.00% | -0.80% | 1.04 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-10 | 0.03% | 1.23% | 15.35% | 22.08% | -3.10% | 12.47% | -2.93% | 50.00% | -0.52% | 0.30 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-10 | -1.16% | 2.83% | 6.74% | 6.18% | -1.51% | 14.49% | -1.89% | 55.00% | -1.40% | 0.06 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.66% | 5.64% | 25.45% | 36.38% | 1.30% | 45.79% | -9.50% | 65.00% | -6.79% | 1.50 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 2.87% | 5.31% | 27.42% | 45.34% | 0.97% | 37.91% | -6.75% | 60.00% | -6.16% | 1.67 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 1.86% | 0.83% | -4.77% | 5.95% | -3.50% | 19.65% | -5.75% | 60.00% | -6.49% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 0.10% | 3.51% | -5.39% | 6.74% | -0.82% | 22.44% | -4.21% | 60.00% | -5.47% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -1.02% | -0.92% | 7.49% | 6.60% | -5.25% | 17.78% | -3.57% | 45.00% | -5.36% | -0.04 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -1.77% | 5.69% | 3.11% | 20.04% | 1.35% | 20.57% | -3.04% | 55.00% | -2.19% | 0.35 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 0.16% | 7.03% | 0.82% | 7.32% | 2.70% | 15.17% | -2.08% | 65.00% | -0.77% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -1.08% | 7.49% | 12.93% | 22.23% | 3.15% | 20.96% | -2.77% | 70.00% | -1.96% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | 3.49% | -4.77% | 19.63% | 27.99% | -9.11% | 23.31% | -8.69% | 40.00% | -11.33% | -0.18 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -2.15% | 2.98% | 6.31% | 12.30% | -1.35% | 22.22% | -4.50% | 60.00% | -4.32% | 0.78 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -0.76% | 3.86% | 8.25% | 13.04% | -0.48% | 15.56% | -3.10% | 65.00% | -3.59% | 0.17 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-10 | -0.51% | -0.34% | 11.44% | 10.48% | -4.68% | 18.29% | -3.31% | 55.00% | -1.75% | 0.31 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.52% | 0.27% | -0.86% | 2.67% | -4.07% | 5.57% | -1.31% | 60.00% | -2.89% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -1.22% | -0.11% | -1.75% | 1.54% | -4.45% | 10.18% | -3.17% | 45.00% | -5.24% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.18% | -0.02% | 0.76% | 3.13% | -4.36% | 4.42% | -0.78% | 60.00% | -0.85% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-10 | -1.09% | -0.30% | -0.67% | 3.37% | -4.64% | 5.49% | -1.70% | 50.00% | -1.99% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 0.77% | 1.36% | 5.48% | -3.57% | 3.23% | -0.39% | 40.00% | -0.20% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.54% | 0.10% | -0.12% | 3.63% | -4.24% | 4.28% | -1.01% | 60.00% | -1.66% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 0.25% | 3.71% | 10.78% | 27.35% | -0.63% | 21.48% | -3.07% | 65.00% | -1.93% | 1.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.44% | 3.88% | 8.17% | 23.73% | -0.46% | 21.82% | -4.34% | 55.00% | -2.20% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.87% | 3.56% | 5.17% | 16.03% | -0.78% | 17.00% | -2.09% | 60.00% | -1.56% | 0.94 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.51% | 6.45% | 12.34% | 35.25% | 2.12% | 25.90% | -4.57% | 70.00% | -2.50% | 1.16 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | 4.36% | -1.17% | -14.05% | -1.59% | -5.50% | 19.07% | -8.10% | 50.00% | -19.19% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.52% | 4.23% | -7.29% | -10.80% | -0.11% | 15.29% | -2.54% | 65.00% | -10.83% | 0.62 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-10 | -0.32% | 0.61% | -8.99% | 23.28% | -3.73% | 25.06% | -7.99% | 50.00% | -23.93% | 0.64 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 3.59% | -5.68% | 21.24% | 28.83% | -10.02% | 19.37% | -9.47% | 35.00% | -13.06% | -0.17 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 3.16% | 7.03% | 56.99% | 113.17% | 2.69% | 63.24% | -13.08% | 65.00% | -8.65% | 2.26 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | -1.24% | 0.92% | -11.97% | -15.32% | -3.41% | 28.58% | -8.55% | 45.00% | -21.53% | 1.19 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 2.57% | 3.39% | 20.66% | 45.47% | -0.95% | 42.93% | -7.81% | 60.00% | -9.55% | 1.85 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | -3.09% | -0.29% | -4.06% | 36.92% | -4.63% | 38.85% | -8.23% | 35.00% | -13.79% | 2.15 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-10 | 1.33% | 10.46% | 26.97% | 25.33% | 6.12% | 26.23% | -3.12% | 50.00% | -2.52% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-10 | -2.41% | -7.10% | 9.26% | 41.21% | -11.44% | 42.84% | -14.10% | 45.00% | -25.66% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-10 | -1.37% | -7.71% | -11.18% | 44.25% | -12.05% | 33.31% | -15.43% | 45.00% | -21.88% | 1.68 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-10 | -0.28% | 4.16% | 9.33% | 17.25% | -0.17% | 12.13% | -1.83% | 65.00% | -0.33% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-10 | -0.89% | 23.54% | 27.86% | 80.74% | 19.20% | 26.39% | -3.20% | 75.00% | -3.20% | 1.02 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-10 | 0.00% | 5.32% | 12.46% | 20.87% | 0.99% | 20.00% | -3.73% | 70.00% | -1.52% | 0.84 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-10 | -3.68% | 6.38% | 2.75% | 27.36% | 2.05% | 26.09% | -4.67% | 60.00% | -4.67% | 1.01 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.52% | 2.10% | 7.86% | 28.10% | -2.23% | 10.48% | -3.08% | 70.00% | -0.90% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | -1.19% | 3.19% | 5.54% | 19.67% | -1.15% | 16.39% | -2.28% | 45.00% | -2.89% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.28% | 2.39% | 9.87% | 10.42% | -1.95% | 16.89% | -4.42% | 55.00% | -4.65% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.88% | 2.84% | 68.54% | 156.63% | -1.50% | 85.64% | -17.82% | 50.00% | -16.28% | 2.61 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 1.27% | 8.36% | 61.09% | 90.28% | 4.02% | 45.69% | -8.65% | 65.00% | -4.79% | 1.69 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | 4.36% | 7.38% | 9.72% | 35.56% | 3.04% | 20.37% | -2.99% | 45.00% | -13.08% | 1.00 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.85% | 2.08% | 6.89% | 28.43% | -2.26% | 23.00% | -5.37% | 50.00% | -6.49% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-10 | -0.28% | 3.17% | -7.81% | 27.44% | -1.17% | 31.20% | -8.61% | 55.00% | -20.13% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.44% | 0.16% | -0.09% | 4.88% | -4.18% | 4.80% | -0.99% | 60.00% | -1.58% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.46% | 0.45% | 0.99% | 5.97% | -3.89% | 2.52% | -0.61% | 60.00% | -0.52% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-10 | -0.22% | 1.09% | 2.24% | 9.51% | -3.25% | 5.37% | -0.65% | 50.00% | -0.44% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-10 | -0.33% | 0.61% | 0.42% | 2.09% | -3.73% | 3.77% | -1.19% | 55.00% | -1.16% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-10 | -1.94% | -6.43% | -25.46% | 59.85% | -10.77% | 49.87% | -18.42% | 50.00% | -48.91% | 1.67 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 1.88% | 0.72% | 5.09% | 9.17% | -3.62% | 27.47% | -8.42% | 55.00% | -6.43% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 3.85% | 5.47% | 7.72% | 11.63% | 1.13% | 13.91% | -1.52% | 60.00% | -3.34% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-10 | 4.54% | -19.06% | 53.57% | 44.18% | -23.40% | 41.87% | -23.10% | 35.00% | -28.94% | -1.00 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-10 | 0.18% | 1.21% | 3.88% | 8.19% | -3.13% | 5.04% | -0.74% | 50.00% | -0.49% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-10 | -0.16% | -1.11% | -1.55% | -1.70% | -5.44% | 5.32% | -2.19% | 45.00% | -4.86% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-10 | -0.37% | -0.75% | -2.56% | -9.86% | -5.09% | 5.45% | -1.74% | 35.00% | -9.86% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-10 | 3.90% | 3.28% | -29.18% | -43.83% | -1.06% | 39.56% | -11.79% | 55.00% | -49.18% | 1.79 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-10 | 5.21% | 10.18% | -41.66% | -36.63% | 5.84% | 58.39% | -14.68% | 50.00% | -63.02% | 2.93 | pass |Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "4ca38d44148b3e112a6fc352346d2d40db5acd940a40645b9c0df20eaf1e1ba9",
"manifest.yaml": "e8b0ac12afabb79809a8a5e2649f22ac614580bfde7a7a46788ec838660a4624",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "f8f8d04d014410e796c788294b80648e9755eedf519a32cf83f50f9cef39bd71",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "365e2da3c1184edc48c68b0360a576f1c7aa2d4316d674c95dbf351c124954cb",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "f7aa89b335f7950c5dcd6f501a1c519e5837a9dfee44877dad36e6f46f22b1ae",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "03b5e9792d4c6bade89526a62f43cbdf51184fe03753997a0637de246e708b81"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-10-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Concentrate in AI/semiconductor momentum with the TSMC July 16 earnings catalyst and evident memory-chip demand strength, balanced with bank-earnings exposure and a benchmark anchor to manage CPI/Fed-testimony risk.
Overweight semis/tech and Taiwan into TSMC earnings, add financials for July 14 bank results, with SPY ballast.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"cost_usd": 0.26069,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot June CPI on July 14 or hawkish Warsh testimony could hit high-beta tech hardest",
"TSMC results or guidance disappoint, hurting SMH/EWT/XLK concurrently",
"Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation spikes oil and pressures risk assets not held here",
"Bank earnings show weak NII or credit deterioration, dragging XLF"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "AI memory demand strength (SK Hynix ADR surge, Nvidia leadership) plus TSMC Q2 results July 16 with ~30% YoY revenue growth momentum as a positive catalyst."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broader tech exposure riding the same AI momentum with somewhat lower single-catalyst risk."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Direct TSMC exposure ahead of July 16 earnings; strong recent benchmark-relative performance."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Major bank earnings July 14 into a strong economy; sector showing positive relative momentum and low drawdown risk."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark ballast to dampen tracking error around CPI and Fed testimony volatility."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrate in AI/semiconductor momentum with the TSMC July 16 earnings catalyst and evident memory-chip demand strength, balanced with bank-earnings exposure and a benchmark anchor to manage CPI/Fed-testimony risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight semis/tech and Taiwan into TSMC earnings, add financials for July 14 bank results, with SPY ballast.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.26069,
"input_tokens": 22309,
"latency_seconds": 12.894670459907502,
"output_tokens": 752,
"total_tokens": 23061
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Tilt into catalysts inside the window: bank earnings July 14, CPI July 14, TSMC July 16. Semis/Taiwan capture AI supply chain tailwind; financials play the earnings cluster; biotech and cybersecurity add momentum diversification.
Catalyst-driven overweight to semis and Taiwan (TSMC earnings), financials (bank earnings week), with biotech and cyber momentum.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot June CPI print July 14 could lift yields and hit high-beta semis/growth",
"Bank earnings disappointment or weak NII guidance",
"TSMC Q2 miss or cautious guide undermines semis and Taiwan",
"Iran/Strait of Hormuz escalation spikes oil and hurts risk assets",
"Biotech momentum reversal after +23% month"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "AI demand outpacing supply, Nvidia leadership, TSMC Q2 results on July 16 catalyst, SK Hynix IPO validates memory strength."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "TSMC Q2 earnings July 16 within window; strong revenue trajectory (+30% YTD) with AI supply chain tailwind."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Big bank earnings July 14 (JPM, WFC, BAC, C, GS); sector momentum strong, steep curve supportive."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong momentum (+23.5% 30d) with high up-day share; continuation likely absent negative catalyst."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong benchmark-relative momentum with low drawdown; steady AI-adjacent theme."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt into catalysts inside the window: bank earnings July 14, CPI July 14, TSMC July 16. Semis/Taiwan capture AI supply chain tailwind; financials play the earnings cluster; biotech and cybersecurity add momentum diversification.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Catalyst-driven overweight to semis and Taiwan (TSMC earnings), financials (bank earnings week), with biotech and cyber momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22318,
"latency_seconds": 13.47263420803938,
"output_tokens": 813,
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}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward catalyst-rich semis/Taiwan (TSMC July 16) and bank earnings (July 14) while anchoring with SP500 to control benchmark-relative risk over a busy CPI/Fed-testimony week.
Overweight AI-semiconductor complex and financials into concrete earnings catalysts, balanced by broad-market and industrial cyclical exposure.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot June CPI on July 14 could lift yields and pressure high-beta semis and Taiwan",
"Bank earnings disappointment or weak guidance drags financials",
"TSMC Q2 results/guidance miss or FX headwinds hit Taiwan and semis",
"High volatility/drawdown profile of SMH and EWT amplifies downside if risk sentiment reverses"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "AI-driven memory/chip demand momentum, Nvidia leadership, TSMC Q2 earnings July 16, SK Hynix strong ADR debut all support semi tape into exit."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "TSMC Jan-May revenue +30%, Q2 report July 16 catalyst; positive beta to semi cycle with strong trailing outperformance."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Big-bank Q2 earnings July 14 (JPM, WFC, BAC, C, GS); XLF strong 30d relative strength and high up-day share into catalyst week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad market anchor to reduce tracking error versus benchmark amid CPI and Fed testimony week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Best 30d benchmark-relative sector (+3.15%), high up-day share, cyclical breadth participation."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward catalyst-rich semis/Taiwan (TSMC July 16) and bank earnings (July 14) while anchoring with SP500 to control benchmark-relative risk over a busy CPI/Fed-testimony week.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight AI-semiconductor complex and financials into concrete earnings catalysts, balanced by broad-market and industrial cyclical exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22313,
"latency_seconds": 11.73406932502985,
"output_tokens": 759,
"total_tokens": 23072
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is heavily tilted toward semiconductors and AI-related technology to capitalize on the upcoming TSMC earnings report and strong momentum in memory chips. Regional allocations to Taiwan and South Korea provide targeted exposure to key semiconductor manufacturing hubs.
Overweighting semiconductors and related Asian markets to capture potential upside from TSMC's earnings and ongoing AI hardware demand.
{
"confidence": 0.75,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"TSMC's Q2 results or forward guidance could fall short of elevated expectations, triggering a selloff in semiconductor and Asian equities.",
"The June CPI report on July 14 could show stickier-than-expected inflation, leading to higher yields and pressure on growth-oriented technology stocks.",
"Hawkish commentary from Fed Chair Warsh during his congressional testimony could negatively impact risk assets.",
"Escalation in Middle East geopolitical tensions could disrupt markets and drive a flight to safety."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Positioned to benefit from TSMC's upcoming Q2 earnings and strong AI-driven memory chip demand highlighted by SK Hynix's successful ADR offering."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Captures broader tech momentum led by Nvidia's continued strength and AI infrastructure build-out."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Provides direct exposure to TSMC ahead of its July 16 earnings report, supported by strong year-to-date revenue growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "Benefits from the positive sentiment around SK Hynix and rising memory chip prices, following the Kospi's recent outperformance."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward semiconductors and AI-related technology to capitalize on the upcoming TSMC earnings report and strong momentum in memory chips. Regional allocations to Taiwan and South Korea provide targeted exposure to key semiconductor manufacturing hubs.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweighting semiconductors and related Asian markets to capture potential upside from TSMC's earnings and ongoing AI hardware demand.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15793,
"latency_seconds": 11.451691939029843,
"output_tokens": 540,
"reasoning_tokens": 716,
"total_tokens": 17049
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio concentrates on semiconductor and AI-linked equities because the briefing provides multiple near-term catalysts and demand signals before the July 17 close, especially TSMC earnings and Nvidia/SK Hynix momentum. A small financials allocation adds exposure to scheduled bank earnings without materially diluting the core AI-chip thesis.
Overweight semiconductors, Taiwan, and Korea to target AI hardware momentum and imminent TSMC earnings. Keep modest technology and financials exposure for breadth around market leadership and bank-report catalysts.
{
"confidence": 0.62,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"June CPI or Fed testimony pushes Treasury yields higher and triggers a one-week rotation out of high-beta growth and semiconductor stocks.",
"TSMC earnings or guidance disappoints relative to elevated AI-supply-chain expectations, pressuring Taiwan and semiconductor ETFs.",
"Recent Nvidia, SK Hynix, Korea, and Taiwan strength reverses on profit-taking after crowded momentum positioning.",
"Bank earnings reveal weaker credit, deposits, or net-interest-margin trends, hurting the financials sleeve and broader risk appetite.",
"Middle East energy-price volatility lifts inflation expectations and undermines equity multiples before the exit close."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 55,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Highest-conviction one-week exposure to AI chip demand, with Nvidia strength, SK Hynix memory-price evidence, and TSMC earnings before the exit close as direct catalysts."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Adds targeted exposure to Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain and TSMC's July 16 Q2 results, with recent relative strength versus the S&P 500."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "Captures Korean memory and AI supply-chain momentum after SK Hynix's strong ADR pricing and demand commentary, while limiting size due to very high volatility."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broadens AI and mega-cap technology exposure beyond semiconductors while retaining positive near-term market leadership from Nvidia-led risk appetite."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 5,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Small diversifier with major bank earnings on July 14 and recent sector outperformance, potentially benefiting if results confirm resilient credit and capital-markets trends."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio concentrates on semiconductor and AI-linked equities because the briefing provides multiple near-term catalysts and demand signals before the July 17 close, especially TSMC earnings and Nvidia/SK Hynix momentum. A small financials allocation adds exposure to scheduled bank earnings without materially diluting the core AI-chip thesis.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight semiconductors, Taiwan, and Korea to target AI hardware momentum and imminent TSMC earnings. Keep modest technology and financials exposure for breadth around market leadership and bank-report catalysts.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14265,
"latency_seconds": 13.409721368923783,
"output_tokens": 762,
"reasoning_tokens": 235,
"total_tokens": 15027
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio emphasizes semiconductor exposure around TSMC earnings and documented AI-related supply strength, supplemented by bank earnings, biotech momentum, and an energy geopolitical hedge. Concentration is intentional because the objective is one-week alpha rather than long-horizon diversification.
Semiconductors have the strongest combination of fundamentals, momentum, and a scheduled catalyst before the exit close. Financials, biotech, and energy diversify the catalyst set while retaining substantial upside sensitivity.
{
"confidence": 0.61,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"TSMC guidance or margins disappoint after a large semiconductor rally, triggering a sharp reversal.",
"June CPI exceeds expectations and pushes yields higher, compressing technology valuations.",
"Bank earnings reveal weaker credit quality, deposits, or loan demand than expected.",
"Iran negotiations restore shipping confidence and rapidly unwind the geopolitical premium in energy.",
"A broad momentum reversal disproportionately hurts semiconductors and biotech."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 45,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "AI-driven chip demand, strong memory pricing, and TSMC's July 16 results provide the clearest near-term upside catalyst."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Offers concentrated participation in TSMC and the semiconductor supply chain ahead of earnings, with strong recent relative momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Major-bank earnings on July 14 can support the sector, while elevated yields may aid net interest income."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong breadth and exceptional recent relative momentum create potential for continued risk-on outperformance."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Persistent Strait of Hormuz uncertainty preserves upside exposure to renewed oil-price risk despite diplomatic talks."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes semiconductor exposure around TSMC earnings and documented AI-related supply strength, supplemented by bank earnings, biotech momentum, and an energy geopolitical hedge. Concentration is intentional because the objective is one-week alpha rather than long-horizon diversification.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Semiconductors have the strongest combination of fundamentals, momentum, and a scheduled catalyst before the exit close. Financials, biotech, and energy diversify the catalyst set while retaining substantial upside sensitivity.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14267,
"latency_seconds": 8.066398829920217,
"output_tokens": 418,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
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}
}xai-grok-4-3
Concentrated in AI/semiconductor momentum and energy geopolitics to capture July 10-17 catalysts including TSMC earnings and bank results while staying within 1-5 holdings.
AI demand and recent semiconductor outperformance plus Middle East energy risks favor overweight in SEMICONDUCTORS, TECHNOLOGY, and ENERGY over the one-week window.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"June CPI release on July 14 could trigger rate volatility and growth-stock rotation",
"Bank earnings on July 14 may disappoint and pressure FINANCIALS-linked sentiment",
"Geopolitical de-escalation in Strait of Hormuz could reverse energy gains"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Nvidia +4% on July 10 and SK Hynix +12.8% on AI demand; TSMC revenue +30% YTD support near-term chip momentum into July 16 earnings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad tech exposure captures Nvidia-led S&P lift and AI supply-chain strength ahead of CPI and Fed events."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent at $76 with Strait of Hormuz tensions and Iranian power-struggle risks provide short-term price support."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated in AI/semiconductor momentum and energy geopolitics to capture July 10-17 catalysts including TSMC earnings and bank results while staying within 1-5 holdings.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "AI demand and recent semiconductor outperformance plus Middle East energy risks favor overweight in SEMICONDUCTORS, TECHNOLOGY, and ENERGY over the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14460,
"latency_seconds": 10.825563936959952,
"output_tokens": 382,
"reasoning_tokens": 620,
"total_tokens": 15462
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Concentrate in AI/semiconductor complex and bank earnings catalysts scheduled before July 17 close, leveraging recent momentum and supply-demand facts while limiting holdings to five high-conviction options.
One-week window favors TSMC results, bank earnings, and AI chip demand over defensive or rate-sensitive assets given sticky inflation and no near-term Fed cuts.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hotter-than-expected June CPI on July 14 could pressure growth/tech valuations and rates",
"Middle East/Hormuz escalation raising oil and inflation uncertainty",
"Profit-taking or reversal after strong recent semis/tech gains and high 30d volatility",
"Hawkish Fed speaker or Beige Book comments reinforcing higher-for-longer rates"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "AI memory/chip demand outpacing supply, Nvidia leadership, SK Hynix ADR surge, and TSMC Q2 results July 16 provide near-term catalysts for semis outperformance."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad tech exposure captures Nvidia-driven S&P lift and AI infrastructure momentum into the scoring window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "TSMC revenue strength and July 16 earnings call directly support Taiwan equity beta to semiconductors."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Major bank Q2 reports (JPM, WFC, BAC, C, GS) on July 14 offer potential positive earnings catalysts."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "Growth/tech-heavy index provides diversified high-beta exposure aligned with recent market leadership."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrate in AI/semiconductor complex and bank earnings catalysts scheduled before July 17 close, leveraging recent momentum and supply-demand facts while limiting holdings to five high-conviction options.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "One-week window favors TSMC results, bank earnings, and AI chip demand over defensive or rate-sensitive assets given sticky inflation and no near-term Fed cuts.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15026,
"latency_seconds": 66.42926139803603,
"output_tokens": 544,
"reasoning_tokens": 741,
"total_tokens": 16311
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Technology Sector (XLK)20%Taiwan Equities (EWT)15%Financials Sector (XLF)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Biotechnology (XBI)15%Cybersecurity (CIBR)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%S&P 500 (SPY)20%Industrials Sector (XLI)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Semiconductors (SMH)40%Technology Sector (XLK)30%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%South Korea Equities (EWY)10% | 0.75 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)55%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%South Korea Equities (EWY)10%Technology Sector (XLK)10%Financials Sector (XLF)5% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)45%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Biotechnology (XBI)10%Energy Sector (XLE)10% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)50%Technology Sector (XLK)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Technology Sector (XLK)25%Taiwan Equities (EWT)15%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-10 | 239.06 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-10 | 93.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-10 | 27.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-10 | 28.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-10 | 123.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-10 | 159.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-10 | 36.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-10 | 35.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-10 | 63.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-10 | 16.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-10 | 58.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-10 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-10 | 53.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-10 | 111.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-10 | 117.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-10 | 84.12 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-10 | 37.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-10 | 108.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-10 | 91.88 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-10 | 70.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-10 | 95.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-10 | 59.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-10 | 55.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-10 | 214.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-10 | 13.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-10 | 105.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-10 | 88.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-10 | 55.71 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-10 | 77.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-10 | 160.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-10 | 79.71 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-10 | 49.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-10 | 181.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-10 | 93.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-10 | 48.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-10 | 107.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-10 | 94.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-10 | 56.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-10 | 84.47 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-10 | 50.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-10 | 103.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-10 | 74.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-10 | 107.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-10 | 725.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-10 | 44.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-10 | 75.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-10 | 754.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-10 | 611.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-10 | 91.50 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-10 | 53.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-10 | 92.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-10 | 54.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-10 | 63.82 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-10 | 183.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-10 | 106.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-10 | 185.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-10 | 372.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-10 | 108.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-10 | 46.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-10 | 98.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-10 | 32.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-10 | 28.39 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-10 | 123.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-10 | 246.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-10 | 75.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-10 | 75.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-10 | 321.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-10 | 295.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-10 | 219.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-10 | 45.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 4ca38d44148b...af1e1ba9 |
| manifest.yaml | e8b0ac12afab...660a4624 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | f8f8d04d0144...ef39bd71 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | 365e2da3c118...124954cb |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | f7aa89b335f7...6f22b1ae |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 03b5e9792d4c...6e708b81 |