Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Grok 4.5 is lowest at 2.6.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +36.79%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 70.8 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-21 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260913-weekly
30,086 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- Decision date: 2026-09-13
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-14T01:45:23Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-14T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-09-14
- Exit date: 2026-09-21
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — September 13, 2026
Research cutoff: September 14, 2026 at 01:45:23 UTC. Latest completed U.S. market session: September 11, 2026. Prospective entry close: September 14, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## U.S. inflation
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted in August and 3.4% over 12 months.
- Gasoline rose 3.9%, energy rose 2.1%, shelter rose 0.3%, and food rose 0.1% in August.
- CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% over 12 months. Seasonally adjusted indexes remain subject to later revision under BLS practice.
## U.S. households
- The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer-sentiment index was 47.8, versus 51.7 in August. Current conditions were 50.9, and expectations were 45.8.
- Preliminary year-ahead inflation expectations were 4.6%, up from 4.0%; long-run expectations were 3.4%, up from 3.3%. Final September results are scheduled for September 25 and may differ.
## Equity markets
- On September 11, the S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98, up about 0.9%; the Dow closed at 52,573.29, up 1.0%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,333.04, up 1.0%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,903.94, up 0.4%.
- For September 8–11, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Dow fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.4%.
- On September 11, the FTSE 100 rose 0.4%, while the Nikkei 225 fell 1.9% and the Kospi fell 1.8%.
## Rates and energy
- The September 11 U.S. Treasury par curve was 4.63% at two years, 4.78% at five years, 4.96% at ten years, and 5.35% at thirty years. Treasury's par yields are estimates based on indicative secondary-market quotations.
- Brent crude settled at $104.61 per barrel on September 11, down 2.8% for the session after trading near $110 overnight. The Iran conflict and associated supply conditions remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## International activity
- The U.K. Office for National Statistics estimated that real GDP grew 0.4% in July and 0.4% in the three months through July.
- In July, U.K. services rose 0.4%, production rose 0.2%, and construction rose 0.1%. Monthly GDP is an estimate and may be revised as source data change.
## Scheduled events
- The FOMC is scheduled to meet September 15–16 and publish a Summary of Economic Projections. The policy outcome is unknown.
- August U.S. retail sales and import/export prices are scheduled for September 16; August housing starts and permits for September 17; and August state employment data for September 18.
- August new-home sales are scheduled for September 24; August durable-goods orders and final September consumer sentiment for September 25.
- BEA's annual-update package covering third-estimate second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, August personal income, and August outlays is scheduled for September 30. Previously published history may be revised.
- August construction spending is scheduled for October 1 and August international trade for October 6. Results for all scheduled releases are unknown.
This briefing is a date-stamped factual snapshot. It does not state expected winners or translate facts into portfolio positions. The complete mechanical appendix that follows is descriptive rather than predictive.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-13-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-13'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-14T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-96dc9f3d5254
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-14T01:45:04.405441+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-14'
exit_date: '2026-09-21'
created_at: '2026-09-14T01:45:04.405441+00:00'
notes: 'Brand-new public-web research frozen after direct source review on 2026-09-13 America/Toronto; latest completed U.S. market session 2026-09-11. No prior input report was copied or reused. Participant calls are one-shot closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# Market Briefing — September 13, 2026
Research cutoff: September 14, 2026 at 01:45:23 UTC. Latest completed U.S. market session: September 11, 2026. Prospective entry close: September 14, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## U.S. inflation
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that CPI-U rose 0.4% seasonally adjusted in August and 3.4% over 12 months.
- Gasoline rose 3.9%, energy rose 2.1%, shelter rose 0.3%, and food rose 0.1% in August.
- CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in August and 2.4% over 12 months. Seasonally adjusted indexes remain subject to later revision under BLS practice.
## U.S. households
- The University of Michigan's preliminary September consumer-sentiment index was 47.8, versus 51.7 in August. Current conditions were 50.9, and expectations were 45.8.
- Preliminary year-ahead inflation expectations were 4.6%, up from 4.0%; long-run expectations were 3.4%, up from 3.3%. Final September results are scheduled for September 25 and may differ.
## Equity markets
- On September 11, the S&P 500 closed at 7,656.98, up about 0.9%; the Dow closed at 52,573.29, up 1.0%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,333.04, up 1.0%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,903.94, up 0.4%.
- For September 8–11, the S&P 500 fell 0.8%, the Dow fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.4%.
- On September 11, the FTSE 100 rose 0.4%, while the Nikkei 225 fell 1.9% and the Kospi fell 1.8%.
## Rates and energy
- The September 11 U.S. Treasury par curve was 4.63% at two years, 4.78% at five years, 4.96% at ten years, and 5.35% at thirty years. Treasury's par yields are estimates based on indicative secondary-market quotations.
- Brent crude settled at $104.61 per barrel on September 11, down 2.8% for the session after trading near $110 overnight. The Iran conflict and associated supply conditions remained unresolved at the cutoff.
## International activity
- The U.K. Office for National Statistics estimated that real GDP grew 0.4% in July and 0.4% in the three months through July.
- In July, U.K. services rose 0.4%, production rose 0.2%, and construction rose 0.1%. Monthly GDP is an estimate and may be revised as source data change.
## Scheduled events
- The FOMC is scheduled to meet September 15–16 and publish a Summary of Economic Projections. The policy outcome is unknown.
- August U.S. retail sales and import/export prices are scheduled for September 16; August housing starts and permits for September 17; and August state employment data for September 18.
- August new-home sales are scheduled for September 24; August durable-goods orders and final September consumer sentiment for September 25.
- BEA's annual-update package covering third-estimate second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, August personal income, and August outlays is scheduled for September 30. Previously published history may be revised.
- August construction spending is scheduled for October 1 and August international trade for October 6. Results for all scheduled releases are unknown.
This briefing is a date-stamped factual snapshot. It does not state expected winners or translate facts into portfolio positions. The complete mechanical appendix that follows is descriptive rather than predictive.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-13-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only Healthcare clears the overreaction-plus-55% bar: a sharp relative pullback after a positive prior trend, negative beta, and a defensive profile suited to a hawkish-risk FOMC week with collapsing sentiment. Dividend equities are a close defensive second but with a slightly lower conviction. Oil ranks third on catalyst value and negative beta but is a continuation, not overreaction, and too volatile for high conviction. High-vol growth, crypto, and metals pullbacks lack independent in-window support and are dominated by Fed outcome risk; SPY remains the preferred core.
Stagflationary backdrop: CPI 3.4% y/y with 0.4% m/m, 10y at 4.96% and 30y at 5.35%, Michigan sentiment collapsing to 47.8 with inflation expectations rising, Brent above $100 on an unresolved Iran conflict. FOMC on Sept 15-16 is the dominant in-window catalyst with an unknown outcome; positive asset share is only ~20% over 5 and 21 sessions, so breadth is weak and defensive/energy-linked exposures have been the relative leaders. Most slate candidates are volatile pullback names whose one-week outcome is dominated by the Fed decision rather than by mean-reversion mechanics, so edge versus SPY is thin.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC Sept 15-16 delivers a dovish surprise that lifts high-beta growth and crypto sharply, leaving defensive picks lagging SPY",
"Iran conflict de-escalation or ceasefire collapses crude, pressuring oil and energy-linked exposures",
"Hot retail sales or continued yield rise (10y near 5%) hits rate-sensitive healthcare and dividend names alongside broad equities",
"Sector-specific policy or drug-pricing headlines could drive healthcare divergence unrelated to the reversal thesis"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.41% after prior 16-session active +2.77%; recent pullback rank 0.955",
"Beta to SPY -0.23 and 20% vol; defensive profile into an uncertain FOMC with weak consumer sentiment",
"Quality evidence score 0.729, prior active rank 0.836"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -1.59% vs prior 16s active +2.31%; quality score 0.760 (highest non-crypto)",
"Beta 0.05 and 10.8% vol; positive volume z 0.68",
"Weak breadth (positive asset share 20%) and sentiment collapse favor mature dividend payers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $104.61 on Sept 11, down 2.8% after trading near $110; Iran conflict unresolved",
"USO +9.0% 5s, +21.7% 21s; beta to SPY -1.76 offers hedge value",
"Recent pullback rank 0.000 and 39% vol means large two-way risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +12.52%, recent active +1.31%; max drawdown only -1.40%",
"Commodity-linked market with SPY beta 0.37 and positive volume z 0.90",
"Prior active rank 0.970 but no in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY -1.15% over 5 sessions, -1.75% from 52w high",
"FOMC Sept 15-16 outcome unknown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return -3.54%, recent active -3.83% after prior +3.04%",
"33% vol and -7.87% drawdown; rate-sensitive with 10y at 4.96% and hot CPI",
"Volume z -0.67, no capitulation signal"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.03, the most extreme in the universe, with return -0.82%",
"4.3% vol limits both upside and downside vs SPY",
"CPI 3.4% and 30y at 5.35% pressure duration; FOMC in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.93% vs prior +3.67%; pullback rank 0.985",
"39% vol, -13.8% from 52w high, beta 1.33",
"Rate-sensitive growth into FOMC with rising inflation expectations"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return -3.43% with volume z 1.65",
"Prior active -0.36%, no supportive trend; Kospi and Nikkei fell sharply Sept 11",
"Sentiment 47.8 and weak breadth argue against industrial demand rebound"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.86%, -44.96% from 52w high, 41% vol",
"Gold -2.84% over 5 sessions despite hot CPI; real yields elevated",
"Dollar +0.21% 5s; FOMC catalyst could move either way"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Kospi fell 1.8% on Sept 11 after week's outperformance; recent active +5.67%",
"Beta 3.27, vol 46.7%, quality score 0.380 with low-volatility rank 0.015",
"Pullback rank 0.015 indicates extended rather than oversold"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +29.06% then recent active -4.42%; still -38.6% from 52w high",
"46% vol, beta 1.06; liquidity-sensitive into FOMC with hot CPI",
"Quality score 0.773 is mechanically driven by extreme prior trend, not fundamentals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +34.23%, recent +1.88%, volume z 0.87",
"56.6% vol, -46.5% from 52w high, quality score 0.528",
"Extended positioning vulnerable to hawkish FOMC given 3.4% CPI"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Stagflationary backdrop: CPI 3.4% y/y with 0.4% m/m, 10y at 4.96% and 30y at 5.35%, Michigan sentiment collapsing to 47.8 with inflation expectations rising, Brent above $100 on an unresolved Iran conflict. FOMC on Sept 15-16 is the dominant in-window catalyst with an unknown outcome; positive asset share is only ~20% over 5 and 21 sessions, so breadth is weak and defensive/energy-linked exposures have been the relative leaders. Most slate candidates are volatile pullback names whose one-week outcome is dominated by the Fed decision rather than by mean-reversion mechanics, so edge versus SPY is thin.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Healthcare clears the overreaction-plus-55% bar: a sharp relative pullback after a positive prior trend, negative beta, and a defensive profile suited to a hawkish-risk FOMC week with collapsing sentiment. Dividend equities are a close defensive second but with a slightly lower conviction. Oil ranks third on catalyst value and negative beta but is a continuation, not overreaction, and too volatile for high conviction. High-vol growth, crypto, and metals pullbacks lack independent in-window support and are dominated by Fed outcome risk; SPY remains the preferred core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Stagflationary backdrop: CPI 3.4% y/y with 0.4% m/m, 10y at 4.96% and 30y at 5.35%, Michigan sentiment collapsing to 47.8 with inflation expectations rising, Brent above $100 on an unresolved Iran conflict. FOMC on Sept 15-16 is the dominant in-window catalyst with an unknown outcome; positive asset share is only ~20% over 5 and 21 sessions, so breadth is weak and defensive/energy-linked exposures have been the relative leaders. Most slate candidates are volatile pullback names whose one-week outcome is dominated by the Fed decision rather than by mean-reversion mechanics, so edge versus SPY is thin.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27112,
"latency_seconds": 47.23951222212054,
"output_tokens": 3823,
"total_tokens": 30935
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
The cleanest one-week edge comes from quality names with strong prior relative trends that suffered an outsized single-week active drawdown without fundamental news: healthcare, dividend equities, and biotech. All three carry low or negative SPY beta into an FOMC decision with sticky 3.4% CPI and collapsing consumer sentiment, which limits downside if large-cap beta rolls over. Oil and crypto show impressive trailing numbers but lack independent in-window support and carry extreme volatility, so they rank below the reversal set.
Breadth is weak (positive asset share ~20% over 5 sessions, RSP trailing SPY by 1.2pp), inflation is sticky at 3.4% headline with sentiment deteriorating sharply, and the FOMC meets Sep 15-16 inside the scoring window. Oil is the dominant trend on unresolved Iran supply risk. With a live policy catalyst and modest dispersion (2.24%), I favor defensive quality pullbacks with high prior relative strength (healthcare, dividend) over levered beta, and avoid mechanical extrapolation of the crypto and oil moves.
{
"confidence": 0.5733,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC dot plot on September 16 could hit rate-sensitive and low-beta defensives together with duration",
"Biotech's 32.8% volatility means the reversal thesis can invert quickly on financing or clinical headlines",
"Escalation or resolution in the Iran conflict could drive a large energy move that reshapes sector leadership within the week",
"Breadth deterioration (only 20% of assets positive) may continue, with mega-cap SPY outperforming defensive equal-weight-style exposures"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-3.41% active in latest week against +2.77% prior 16-session active",
"Negative SPY beta (-0.23) offers defensive carry into the FOMC",
"High quality evidence score 0.729 with deep recent pullback rank 0.955"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.59% active week after +2.31% prior active trend",
"Lowest realized vol among equity candidates at 10.78% with -3.46% drawdown",
"Quality evidence score 0.760, near top of universe"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 46,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.83% active in one week versus +3.04% prior active strength",
"Low SPY beta 0.53 with quality score 0.707",
"Volume z -0.67 suggests flush without distribution"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 44,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.93% active after +3.67% prior active",
"Very high 39.4% vol and -13.8% from 52w high raises two-sided risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+12.52% prior 16-session active with only -1.40% drawdown",
"Volume z 0.90 indicates sustained participation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 5.03, an extreme flow dislocation",
"Low 4.26% vol; duration exposed to FOMC outcome"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -0.22% recent, -1.75% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+10.16% active week, +21.68% 21-session move; Brent $104.61 after fading from ~$110",
"Unresolved Iran conflict keeps two-sided headline risk high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.43% 3-session return with volume z 1.65",
"Prior active near zero; no independent trend support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.42% active week after +29.06% prior active surge",
"45.8% vol and -38.6% from 52w high; risk appetite weak"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.86% active week; gold also down 2.84% over 5 sessions",
"41% vol, beta 1.53 to SPY limits defensive value"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Kospi fell 1.8% on September 11",
"46.7% vol and beta 3.27 make it the highest-risk slate equity"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+34.23% prior active and +1.88% latest active, but 56.6% vol",
"Lowest quality-adjusted vol rank (0.000) in the universe"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 30,
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"BIOTECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Breadth is weak (positive asset share ~20% over 5 sessions, RSP trailing SPY by 1.2pp), inflation is sticky at 3.4% headline with sentiment deteriorating sharply, and the FOMC meets Sep 15-16 inside the scoring window. Oil is the dominant trend on unresolved Iran supply risk. With a live policy catalyst and modest dispersion (2.24%), I favor defensive quality pullbacks with high prior relative strength (healthcare, dividend) over levered beta, and avoid mechanical extrapolation of the crypto and oil moves.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"BIOTECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The cleanest one-week edge comes from quality names with strong prior relative trends that suffered an outsized single-week active drawdown without fundamental news: healthcare, dividend equities, and biotech. All three carry low or negative SPY beta into an FOMC decision with sticky 3.4% CPI and collapsing consumer sentiment, which limits downside if large-cap beta rolls over. Oil and crypto show impressive trailing numbers but lack independent in-window support and carry extreme volatility, so they rank below the reversal set.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is weak (positive asset share ~20% over 5 sessions, RSP trailing SPY by 1.2pp), inflation is sticky at 3.4% headline with sentiment deteriorating sharply, and the FOMC meets Sep 15-16 inside the scoring window. Oil is the dominant trend on unresolved Iran supply risk. With a live policy catalyst and modest dispersion (2.24%), I favor defensive quality pullbacks with high prior relative strength (healthcare, dividend) over levered beta, and avoid mechanical extrapolation of the crypto and oil moves.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
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}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio favors OIL due to ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting prices, while HEALTHCARE and DIVIDEND offer defensive quality pullbacks in a mixed market environment ahead of the FOMC meeting.
The market is facing a mixed environment with upcoming FOMC meeting and retail sales data. Recent inflation data was slightly higher than expected, but consumer sentiment dipped. Oil prices are volatile due to geopolitical tensions.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC meeting outcome surprises the market.",
"Geopolitical tensions in Iran de-escalate, leading to a drop in oil prices."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $104.61 per barrel on September 11, down 2.8% for the session after trading near $110 overnight.",
"The Iran conflict and associated supply conditions remained unresolved at the cutoff."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Healthcare Sector recent active % is -3.41.",
"Healthcare Sector quality score is 0.729."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"US Dividend Equities recent active % is -1.59.",
"US Dividend Equities quality score is 0.760."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Bitcoin ETF recent active % is -4.42.",
"Bitcoin ETF prior active % is 29.06."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Software recent active % is -3.93."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Biotechnology recent active % is -3.83."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Silver recent active % is -2.86."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Ethereum ETF recent active % is 1.88.",
"Ethereum ETF prior active % is 34.23."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brazil Equities recent active % is 1.31."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"South Korea Equities recent active % is 5.67."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Municipal Bonds volume z is 5.03."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Copper volume z is 1.65."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 recent return % is -0.22."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is facing a mixed environment with upcoming FOMC meeting and retail sales data. Recent inflation data was slightly higher than expected, but consumer sentiment dipped. Oil prices are volatile due to geopolitical tensions.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors OIL due to ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting prices, while HEALTHCARE and DIVIDEND offer defensive quality pullbacks in a mixed market environment ahead of the FOMC meeting.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is facing a mixed environment with upcoming FOMC meeting and retail sales data. Recent inflation data was slightly higher than expected, but consumer sentiment dipped. Oil prices are volatile due to geopolitical tensions.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18522,
"latency_seconds": 21.074182770913467,
"output_tokens": 2681,
"total_tokens": 21203
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil ranks first on a supply-supported but highly uncertain continuation case, not an overreaction classification. Healthcare and dividend equities offer the clearest modest-probability reversal cases, combining prior relative strength with a defensive rationale. Only those two clear the prescribed overreaction eligibility threshold; the remaining slot therefore defaults to SPY. Crypto and other volatile losers lack enough independent support to justify stronger reversal probabilities.
Weak breadth, rising inflation expectations and unresolved energy supply risk favor selective defensiveness rather than a broad loser rebound. Oil has independent supply-side support, but its sharp advance and recent intraday reversal limit conviction. The September 15–16 FOMC and September 16 retail sales fall inside the scoring window and could dominate relative returns. Quality scores are technical composites, not independent evidence of earnings resilience.
{
"confidence": 0.575,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC or higher projected rates could extend losses in both equities and duration-sensitive assets.",
"Iran-related de-escalation or improved supply conditions could abruptly reverse oil's premium.",
"A dovish FOMC and strong retail sales could favor high-beta growth over healthcare and dividend equities.",
"Low-volume pullbacks do not prove overreaction; unreported sector-specific deterioration could invalidate the defensive reversal cases.",
"Price adjustments before the September 14 entry close may absorb much of the available edge."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The Iran conflict and associated supply conditions remained unresolved.",
"Gasoline CPI rose 3.9%; oil's five-session active return was 10.16%.",
"Brent fell 2.8% on September 11 after trading near $110 overnight, demonstrating substantial reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.41% followed prior active strength of 2.77%, with volume z-score -0.55.",
"Quality score was 0.729, although the 5.87% drawdown cautions against treating the pullback as harmless.",
"Consumer sentiment fell to 47.8; healthcare's supplied SPY correlation was -0.15, supporting a defensive relative-return case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 1.59% followed prior active gain of 2.31%; quality score was 0.760.",
"Volatility was 10.78% and drawdown 3.46%, materially milder than most shock-reversal candidates.",
"The exposure favors mature dividend-paying companies, while sentiment deterioration supports a cautious equity posture."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 4.42% followed prior active gain of 29.06%, consistent with a possible temporary retracement.",
"Quality score of 0.773 coexists with 45.81% volatility and a 38.60% distance below the 52-week high.",
"The FOMC outcome is unknown; no crypto-specific in-window catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength was 12.52%, recent active return 1.31%, and drawdown only 1.40%.",
"Volume z-score was 0.90, but the briefing supplies no Brazil-specific catalyst.",
"Commodity sensitivity offers a possible inflation offset, while FOMC-related currency and capital-flow risks remain."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 3.83% followed prior active gain of 3.04%, providing a plausible reversal setup.",
"Volatility was 32.82% and drawdown 7.87%; volume z-score of -0.67 does not establish capitulation.",
"No clinical or transaction catalyst is supplied, and the exposure is sensitive to financing conditions ahead of the FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 5.03 is exceptional, but recent active return was positive 0.35%, not a relative-price collapse.",
"Prior active return was -1.68% and quality score 0.370.",
"Low volatility of 4.26% supports defensiveness, but rising inflation expectations and the FOMC create duration risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY five-session return was -1.15%; only 20.29% of assets had positive five-session returns.",
"Equal-weight S&P 500 underperformed SPY by 1.21 percentage points over five sessions.",
"SPY is the benchmark, so its excess return is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 3.93% followed prior active gain of 3.67%, warranting a reversal test.",
"Volatility was 39.42%, drawdown 8.27%, and volume z-score -0.88.",
"No software-specific fundamental catalyst is supplied to offset inflation and FOMC valuation risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.86% followed prior active gain of 2.43%.",
"Volatility was 41.18%, drawdown 8.40%, and distance below the 52-week high 44.96%.",
"Higher inflation expectations compete with real-rate and dollar risks around the FOMC; no silver-specific supply catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active gain was 34.23% and recent active gain 1.88%, but no independent network or flow catalyst is supplied.",
"Volatility of 56.56% is the highest in the slate; distance below the 52-week high was 46.47%.",
"The FOMC creates substantial two-sided liquidity and risk-appetite exposure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were both negative, at -0.68% and -0.36%.",
"Volume z-score was 1.65, but quality score was only 0.425.",
"Weak household sentiment raises demand concerns; no copper-specific supply disruption or demand catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.45,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength was 5.67%, but volatility was 46.68% and SPY beta 3.27.",
"Volume z-score was -0.69 and quality score 0.380.",
"The Kospi fell 1.8% on September 11; no independent semiconductor or export catalyst supports extrapolating recent relative strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Weak breadth, rising inflation expectations and unresolved energy supply risk favor selective defensiveness rather than a broad loser rebound. Oil has independent supply-side support, but its sharp advance and recent intraday reversal limit conviction. The September 15–16 FOMC and September 16 retail sales fall inside the scoring window and could dominate relative returns. Quality scores are technical composites, not independent evidence of earnings resilience.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil ranks first on a supply-supported but highly uncertain continuation case, not an overreaction classification. Healthcare and dividend equities offer the clearest modest-probability reversal cases, combining prior relative strength with a defensive rationale. Only those two clear the prescribed overreaction eligibility threshold; the remaining slot therefore defaults to SPY. Crypto and other volatile losers lack enough independent support to justify stronger reversal probabilities.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak breadth, rising inflation expectations and unresolved energy supply risk favor selective defensiveness rather than a broad loser rebound. Oil has independent supply-side support, but its sharp advance and recent intraday reversal limit conviction. The September 15–16 FOMC and September 16 retail sales fall inside the scoring window and could dominate relative returns. Quality scores are technical composites, not independent evidence of earnings resilience.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-3
OIL benefits from supply risks and continuation; DIVIDEND offers quality defensive characteristics after pullback; SP500 as benchmark anchor amid FOMC uncertainty.
Mixed signals from rising CPI, weak sentiment, unresolved Iran supply risks, and upcoming FOMC create short-term uncertainty favoring selective continuation in energy and quality defensives over broad equity momentum.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC policy surprise",
"Iran supply disruption escalation",
"CPI revision risk"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-4.42 active return",
"quality score 0.773"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
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"medium_strength",
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality score 0.708"
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"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
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"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality score 0.707"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality score 0.729"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.86 active return",
"quality score 0.651"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.88 active return",
"prior active 34.23"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.31 active return",
"quality score 0.618"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"10.16 active return",
"Brent at 104.61"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 4.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 68,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5.67 active return",
"quality score 0.380"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.59 active return",
"quality score 0.760"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.03",
"quality score 0.370"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.68 active return",
"volume z 1.65"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.22 return",
"benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals from rising CPI, weak sentiment, unresolved Iran supply risks, and upcoming FOMC create short-term uncertainty favoring selective continuation in energy and quality defensives over broad equity momentum.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"DIVIDEND",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "OIL benefits from supply risks and continuation; DIVIDEND offers quality defensive characteristics after pullback; SP500 as benchmark anchor amid FOMC uncertainty.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals from rising CPI, weak sentiment, unresolved Iran supply risks, and upcoming FOMC create short-term uncertainty favoring selective continuation in energy and quality defensives over broad equity momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction one-week edges are quality pullback reversals in HEALTHCARE and BIOTECH plus BITCOIN_ETF after extreme prior strength and sharp relative washout; oil has continuation support but lower reversal eligibility, and overall prefer SPY given FOMC and inflation uncertainty.
Elevated CPI, weaker sentiment, and FOMC week create mixed one-week setup; oil strength continues on unresolved Iran supply risk while several high-quality names show sharp relative pullbacks after solid prior active trends, favoring selective reversal over broad continuation.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC September 15-16 decision and SEP can reverse rate-sensitive and risk-asset moves within the scoring window",
"Further upside oil shock from unresolved Iran conflict could pressure equities and non-energy cyclicals",
"Weaker consumer sentiment and sticky CPI may extend defensive rotation or risk-off rather than mean-reversion",
"High-vol names (crypto, biotech, software) can gap against SPY on any hawkish surprise"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.41% after prior active +2.77%",
"Quality evidence score 0.729 with high prior and pullback ranks",
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],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
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"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"Quality score 0.707 with extreme pullback rank",
"Low SPY correlation 0.22 limits beta drag"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
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"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.42% after extreme prior active +29.06%",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.773 on slate",
"Volume z near neutral, not capitulation selling"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
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"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.93% after prior active +3.67%",
"Quality score 0.708 with top-tier pullback rank",
"High vol but deep relative pullback from prior strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.760 highest among defensive equity slate peers",
"Recent active -1.59% after prior +2.31%",
"Very low beta 0.05 and modest vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.86% after prior +2.43%",
"Quality score 0.651 with strong pullback rank",
"Large distance to 52w high and elevated vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +6.07% and active +10.16% with prior active +11.53%",
"Brent near $104 after Iran conflict unresolved",
"Negative SPY corr supports relative edge if equities soft"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +12.52% remains strong medium-horizon trend",
"Shallow max drawdown -1.40% and quality 0.618",
"Positive volume z 0.90"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34.23% extreme medium strength",
"Recent active still +1.88% with positive volume z",
"Very high vol 56.56% and deep 52w discount"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +5.67% short-window strength",
"Prior active still positive +2.58%",
"Very high beta 3.27 and vol 46.68% raise FOMC risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.43% with only mild prior active -0.36%",
"Elevated volume z 1.65 but quality score only 0.425",
"Industrial metal sensitive to growth/sentiment data"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme volume z 5.03 dislocation",
"Low vol 4.26% but quality score weak 0.370",
"Rates elevated with FOMC SEP risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent return -0.22%",
"Horizon vol 8.94% and max DD -2.58%",
"Broad market faces CPI/sentiment/FOMC catalysts"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"BITCOIN_ETF": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"BIOTECH",
"BITCOIN_ETF"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated CPI, weaker sentiment, and FOMC week create mixed one-week setup; oil strength continues on unresolved Iran supply risk while several high-quality names show sharp relative pullbacks after solid prior active trends, favoring selective reversal over broad continuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"BIOTECH",
"BITCOIN_ETF"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction one-week edges are quality pullback reversals in HEALTHCARE and BIOTECH plus BITCOIN_ETF after extreme prior strength and sharp relative washout; oil has continuation support but lower reversal eligibility, and overall prefer SPY given FOMC and inflation uncertainty.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated CPI, weaker sentiment, and FOMC week create mixed one-week setup; oil strength continues on unresolved Iran supply risk while several high-quality names show sharp relative pullbacks after solid prior active trends, favoring selective reversal over broad continuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16601,
"latency_seconds": 42.340307713951916,
"output_tokens": 2702,
"reasoning_tokens": 154,
"total_tokens": 19457
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-week scoring is dominated by FOMC and a low-breadth equity tape. Oil is the only slate name with independent, briefing-supported continuation versus SPY, but it is not an overreaction setup. Healthcare and dividend quality pullbacks are defensive rather than high-conviction beaters. No candidate is labeled overreaction with p_beat_spy >= 55, so unused slots should remain in SPY.
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 2.24% with just ~20% of assets positive, SPY is near a 52-week high, and the FOMC meeting plus inflation/sentiment prints dominate a one-week window. Oil shows independent continuation versus a slightly weaker equity tape; most shock-reversal names are high-vol pullbacks without in-window fundamental confirmation.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC Sept 15-16 and SEP can reprice duration, growth, and risk assets inside the scoring window",
"Iran-related oil supply conditions can reverse after the Sept 11 Brent drop from ~$110",
"CPI 3.4% and Michigan inflation expectations 4.6% can keep real-rate pressure on crypto, software, and silver",
"Equal-weight lag (RSP-SPY 5s -1.21%) can persist if mega-cap concentration reasserts"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"USO 5-session active return +10.16% after prior-window +11.53% with negative SPY correlation",
"Brent settled $104.61 on Sept 11 after trading near $110; Iran conflict remained unresolved",
"Energy cluster remains near 52-week highs while SPY 5-session return is -1.15%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLV 5-session active return -3.41% after prior +2.77% with quality evidence 0.729",
"63-session SPY correlation -0.15 and beta -0.23",
"FOMC Sept 15-16 and weaker Michigan sentiment 47.8 favor lower-beta defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SCHD quality evidence score 0.760 with horizon vol 10.78% versus SPY 8.94%",
"Recent active return -1.59% after prior +2.31%",
"Near-zero SPY beta 0.05 in a low-breadth tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +12.52% with shallow 21-session drawdown -1.40%",
"5-session active still +1.31% despite weekly -1.09%",
"Low SPY beta 0.37 and commodity-linked EM exposure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -1.15% and 21-session -1.06% with distance to 52w high only -1.75%",
"Positive-asset share 20.29% over 5 sessions",
"FOMC and data calendar concentrate index-level event risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34.23% and 5-session active still +1.88%",
"Horizon vol 56.56% and 52w-high distance -46.47%",
"Volume z 0.87 versus bitcoin volume z -0.21"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session active -4.42% after prior +29.06% with quality score 0.773",
"Horizon vol 45.81% and 52w-high distance -38.60%",
"Low SPY corr 0.34 but FOMC-week crypto beta remains high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XBI 5-session active -3.83% after prior +3.04%",
"Horizon vol 32.82% and max drawdown -7.87%",
"Low SPY corr 0.22 but no in-window biotech catalyst in the briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IGV 5-session active -3.93% after prior +3.67%",
"Horizon vol 39.42%, beta 1.33, 52w-high distance -13.80%",
"Rate-sensitive growth into unknown FOMC outcome"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV 5-session active -2.86% after prior +2.43%",
"Horizon vol 41.18% and 52w-high distance -44.96%",
"IAU 5-session return -2.84% shows precious-metals weakness alongside CPI 3.4%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CPER weekly -3.43% and 5-session active -0.68%",
"Volume z 1.65 versus modest prior trend",
"Horizon vol 25.53% with no copper-specific briefing catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EWY 5-session active +5.67% but Kospi fell 1.8% on Sept 11",
"Horizon vol 46.68% and SPY beta 3.27",
"Quality evidence only 0.380 with recent pullback rank 0.015"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"MUB volume z 5.03 with horizon vol only 4.26%",
"5-session active +0.35% after prior -1.68%",
"Treasury 10y par yield 4.96% and FOMC week dominate duration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"COPPER",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 2.24% with just ~20% of assets positive, SPY is near a 52-week high, and the FOMC meeting plus inflation/sentiment prints dominate a one-week window. Oil shows independent continuation versus a slightly weaker equity tape; most shock-reversal names are high-vol pullbacks without in-window fundamental confirmation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-week scoring is dominated by FOMC and a low-breadth equity tape. Oil is the only slate name with independent, briefing-supported continuation versus SPY, but it is not an overreaction setup. Healthcare and dividend quality pullbacks are defensive rather than high-conviction beaters. No candidate is labeled overreaction with p_beat_spy >= 55, so unused slots should remain in SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 2.24% with just ~20% of assets positive, SPY is near a 52-week high, and the FOMC meeting plus inflation/sentiment prints dominate a one-week window. Oil shows independent continuation versus a slightly weaker equity tape; most shock-reversal names are high-vol pullbacks without in-window fundamental confirmation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16743,
"latency_seconds": 53.337816547835246,
"output_tokens": 2530,
"reasoning_tokens": 822,
"total_tokens": 20095
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%Biotechnology (XBI)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | b9ac7fb7f90a...3d81eaee |
| manifest.yaml | 444197ccb77b...0f653061 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | fa89ac31cb5d...4cf5b46a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 3bf139701814...5ab990c3 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 0e3fda0995ae...cb3ad7e3 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | b30ee8d0ad02...106d6c55 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 0563d93491ab...133a062e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | e909bfb516e6...c07b0090 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |