Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 72.7 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +37.14% to broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +65.00%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-13 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
20261007-0348-official-clean
33,304 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- Decision date: 2026-10-06
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-10-06
- Exit date: 2026-10-13
- Entry rule: Use the October 6, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Exit rule: Use the October 13, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — October 6, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Tuesday, October 6.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
The September services diffusion index was 54.9, down 0.5 point from August and above the 50 expansion threshold for a 27th consecutive month. Business activity was 56.5, new orders 59.8, employment 50.1, and supplier deliveries 53.2. The services prices index rose 1.4 points to 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Backlogs increased to 56.6, while new export orders fell to 46.9. Diffusion indexes measure breadth and direction rather than the magnitude of output, and the supplier-deliveries index is inverted.
The U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit increased $12.7 billion to $105.6 billion in August. Exports rose $4.5 billion, or 1.4%, to $315.2 billion, while imports rose $17.2 billion, or 4.3%, to $420.8 billion. The real goods deficit increased 8.2% to $114.7 billion. July goods imports were revised up $4.4 billion; the headline data are seasonally adjusted but not price adjusted.
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
The September manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Its prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August nominal consumer spending rose 0.9% and real spending rose 0.6%. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual update with revisions extending back to 2021. The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter.
## Policy, rates, energy, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 6, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.79% at two years, 5.03% at five years, 5.27% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years. Compared with October 5, those yields were lower by 1, 5, 3, 4, and 2 basis points. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
The October energy outlook raised the forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude average to $105 per barrel, $14 above the prior month's forecast. The forecast estimated September Middle East production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day, down from 5.8 million in August, and projected global inventories to decline by another 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. September U.S. gasoline and diesel prices averaged $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon. The forecast inputs were completed October 1 and do not specifically incorporate later events; the publisher expects greater short-term volatility than the forecast path displays.
U.S. equities had divergent large- and small-cap closes on October 6. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,818.93, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,521.28, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% to 27,599.79, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% to 2,830.30. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. The next weekly report is scheduled inside the weekly horizon. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the October 13 weekly exit, scheduled releases include minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting and weekly petroleum data on October 7, followed by August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8. October 12 is a federal holiday, and no BLS release is scheduled that day.
Before the November 6 monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and advance retail sales on October 15; import and export prices on October 16; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. October manufacturing activity and September construction spending are scheduled for November 2, job openings for November 3, September trade and October services activity for November 4, preliminary productivity for November 5, and the October employment report at 08:30 ET on November 6 before the exit close.
The evidence available at the cutoff includes services and manufacturing indexes above 50, slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions, positive real consumption and GDP growth, elevated inflation and survey price readings, an increased official oil-price forecast, long Treasury yields above 5%, and divergent large- and small-cap performance on October 6. Scheduled release outcomes were unknown at the cutoff.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-06-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-06'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-07T03:45:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-07T03:45:04.010055+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 6, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the October 13, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-06'
exit_date: '2026-10-13'
created_at: '2026-10-07T03:45:04.010055+00:00'
notes: 'After-close decision round using the completed October 6 U.S. session as the entry date. Fresh direct-public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z.'# Market Briefing — October 6, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-07T03:45:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Tuesday, October 6.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
The September services diffusion index was 54.9, down 0.5 point from August and above the 50 expansion threshold for a 27th consecutive month. Business activity was 56.5, new orders 59.8, employment 50.1, and supplier deliveries 53.2. The services prices index rose 1.4 points to 74.0, its highest reading since July 2022. Backlogs increased to 56.6, while new export orders fell to 46.9. Diffusion indexes measure breadth and direction rather than the magnitude of output, and the supplier-deliveries index is inverted.
The U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit increased $12.7 billion to $105.6 billion in August. Exports rose $4.5 billion, or 1.4%, to $315.2 billion, while imports rose $17.2 billion, or 4.3%, to $420.8 billion. The real goods deficit increased 8.2% to $114.7 billion. July goods imports were revised up $4.4 billion; the headline data are seasonally adjusted but not price adjusted.
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
The September manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Its prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August nominal consumer spending rose 0.9% and real spending rose 0.6%. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual update with revisions extending back to 2021. The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter.
## Policy, rates, energy, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 6, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.79% at two years, 5.03% at five years, 5.27% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years. Compared with October 5, those yields were lower by 1, 5, 3, 4, and 2 basis points. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
The October energy outlook raised the forecast fourth-quarter Brent crude average to $105 per barrel, $14 above the prior month's forecast. The forecast estimated September Middle East production shut-ins at 4.8 million barrels per day, down from 5.8 million in August, and projected global inventories to decline by another 0.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. September U.S. gasoline and diesel prices averaged $4.35 and $6.29 per gallon. The forecast inputs were completed October 1 and do not specifically incorporate later events; the publisher expects greater short-term volatility than the forecast path displays.
U.S. equities had divergent large- and small-cap closes on October 6. The S&P 500 gained 0.6% to 7,818.93, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,521.28, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4% to 27,599.79, while the Russell 2000 fell 0.6% to 2,830.30. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. The next weekly report is scheduled inside the weekly horizon. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the October 13 weekly exit, scheduled releases include minutes of the September Federal Reserve meeting and weekly petroleum data on October 7, followed by August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8. October 12 is a federal holiday, and no BLS release is scheduled that day.
Before the November 6 monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and advance retail sales on October 15; import and export prices on October 16; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. October manufacturing activity and September construction spending are scheduled for November 2, job openings for November 3, September trade and October services activity for November 4, preliminary productivity for November 5, and the October employment report at 08:30 ET on November 6 before the exit close.
The evidence available at the cutoff includes services and manufacturing indexes above 50, slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions, positive real consumption and GDP growth, elevated inflation and survey price readings, an increased official oil-price forecast, long Treasury yields above 5%, and divergent large- and small-cap performance on October 6. Scheduled release outcomes were unknown at the cutoff.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "c46ba581646ffee06167a6d20b89e0712e78f2bbccaacf2eb132e125756b2559",
"manifest.yaml": "49ea594f51cdba011b168ab97fa41525a7368a0666aba1fb082c811818b35c32",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "d6d921ecb3c1c6dd6b9e5faa90d027eb0d619a56f1344b7964a6497cf612e0c0",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "96f53c7a31f73fce0823f470e5f1933b94244c4051b94ee5053ed7e2561803bc",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "c287ae1740fae5749f4305a3e6a92f1641bc12026b938f379d80695324148c49",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "62c28f74d7a5c3fff684bdeaaab4cb8f4a303e4ef5e8a66a707483883c93d906",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "3b35bb6f96efff798ec202f1deeb0ab27745512c73c47793933e50c611e44f84",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "50f8d837492e3243ad7eb0125d87ea5f1717aed7bbd5b50a3637ea707d8b4d68",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-06-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Only Healthcare meets the overreaction-plus-55% bar: its relative pullback is the deepest in the universe, its prior trend was positive, and it has near-zero beta, so a modest mean reversion is the most defensible one-week edge. Semis and cybersecurity rank next on supported leadership but are extended and offer no better than coin-flip odds, so they are labeled continuation and remain in SPY. Brazil and ETHA are statistical outliers without in-briefing support; long duration faces a hawkish Fed and 5%+ yields.
SPY near its 52-week high with narrow leadership (RSP lagging SPY by 4.1% over 21 sessions), a hawkish Fed hiking into 3.4% PCE inflation, 10-year yields above 5%, weak payrolls with negative revisions, and an elevated oil forecast. Cross-sectional active dispersion of 24% is dominated by ETHA's anomalous print; ex-crypto, the tape is a mega-cap growth continuation with broad weakness in rates, small caps, and defensives. One-week window has limited catalysts (FOMC minutes, petroleum data) so mean reversion in oversold low-beta sectors and persistence in leaders are both plausible; edge versus SPY is modest.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes on Oct 7 read hawkish, lifting yields further and hitting duration-sensitive and rate-sensitive sectors",
"Mega-cap growth leadership reverses sharply, producing a broad drawdown where low-beta healthcare still underperforms if rotation goes to cyclicals",
"Healthcare-specific policy or drug-pricing headlines extend the sector's recent underperformance rather than reverse it",
"Oil-driven inflation surprise from weekly petroleum data increases cross-asset volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.08% versus prior active +0.49%; highest recent pullback rank 0.985 and quality score 0.790",
"Near-zero SPY beta (0.02) and 13.9% vol with only -3.55% drawdown; -4.53% from 52w high",
"Prior relative trend intact; no sector-specific fundamental deterioration in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +7.57% and recent +2.27%, prior active rank 0.970",
"Beta 2.32 with vol 29.7%; volume z -0.67 shows no exhaustion-style spike",
"Mega-cap growth leadership persists with Nasdaq and tech near 52w highs"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +8.34% (rank 0.985) and recent +4.09%; at 52w high",
"Volume z 1.55 and low drawdown -2.94%; beta 1.23, corr 0.41",
"Recent pullback rank 0.030 means it is extended, limiting reversal cushion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; +1.95% over 5 sessions, at 52w high, 10.4% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.39% on top of prior active -3.47%; pullback rank 0.955 but prior trend weak",
"ECB hiked with 0.9% growth and upside inflation risk; dollar +2.92% over 21 sessions",
"Volume z 1.34, drawdown -6.58%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.39 with +3.73% 3-session bounce after -6.61% prior active and -9.00% drawdown",
"Lowest quality score 0.123; 30-year yield 5.64% pressures rate-sensitive defensives",
"-11.97% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.72% (pullback rank 1.000) following prior -3.74%; -11% from 52w high",
"Vol 27.4% and drawdown -7.88%; financing-sensitive while 2-year yield at 4.79% after Fed hike",
"Volume z 0.77 only moderate, no capitulation signal"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+15.78% in 3 sessions with volume z 7.49, vol 48.3%; at 52w high",
"Prior active -3.14%; no in-briefing catalyst explaining the surge",
"Lowest-tier quality score 0.213; high short-term giveback risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -8.95% (rank 0.030) and -20.33% from 52w high, drawdown -12.26%",
"Gold -6.02% over 21 sessions and strong dollar weigh on resource-linked EM",
"Beta 1.41 with negative volume z -0.61"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Vol 0.94%, carry roughly 0.08% per week at 4.46% one-year yield",
"Beats SPY only in a down-equity week; SPY at highs with modest catalysts"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +2.92% with Fed hiking and 2y yield 4.79%; recent -0.21% dip",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.30; vol 4.61%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Wide rate differential with US 2y at 4.79% pressures yen carry unwind odds",
"Recent -2.53% active, -5.39% from 52w high, volume z -0.67"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session return -6.00%, -12.62% from 52w high; 30y yield 5.64%",
"Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% with PCE 3.4% and services prices index 74.0; FOMC minutes Oct 7",
"Yields eased 2-5bp on Oct 6 and volume z 1.63 hint at short-term bounce only"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Reported +198.92% recent return with 685% vol and beta 4.24 is anomalous and likely a data artifact or distortion",
"Volume z -1.39 despite the print; no briefing catalyst",
"Extreme tail risk in both directions makes it unsuitable versus SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near its 52-week high with narrow leadership (RSP lagging SPY by 4.1% over 21 sessions), a hawkish Fed hiking into 3.4% PCE inflation, 10-year yields above 5%, weak payrolls with negative revisions, and an elevated oil forecast. Cross-sectional active dispersion of 24% is dominated by ETHA's anomalous print; ex-crypto, the tape is a mega-cap growth continuation with broad weakness in rates, small caps, and defensives. One-week window has limited catalysts (FOMC minutes, petroleum data) so mean reversion in oversold low-beta sectors and persistence in leaders are both plausible; edge versus SPY is modest.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Healthcare meets the overreaction-plus-55% bar: its relative pullback is the deepest in the universe, its prior trend was positive, and it has near-zero beta, so a modest mean reversion is the most defensible one-week edge. Semis and cybersecurity rank next on supported leadership but are extended and offer no better than coin-flip odds, so they are labeled continuation and remain in SPY. Brazil and ETHA are statistical outliers without in-briefing support; long duration faces a hawkish Fed and 5%+ yields.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near its 52-week high with narrow leadership (RSP lagging SPY by 4.1% over 21 sessions), a hawkish Fed hiking into 3.4% PCE inflation, 10-year yields above 5%, weak payrolls with negative revisions, and an elevated oil forecast. Cross-sectional active dispersion of 24% is dominated by ETHA's anomalous print; ex-crypto, the tape is a mega-cap growth continuation with broad weakness in rates, small caps, and defensives. One-week window has limited catalysts (FOMC minutes, petroleum data) so mean reversion in oversold low-beta sectors and persistence in leaders are both plausible; edge versus SPY is modest.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28368,
"latency_seconds": 45.95647159899818,
"output_tokens": 4037,
"total_tokens": 32405
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Healthcare passes as an overreaction reversal. It has a sharp active pullback, high quality evidence and low beta, with no deterioration evidence in the briefing. Other shock losers face rate or fundamental headwinds. The large winners (Brazil, ETHA) lack in-window support. SPY should fill the remaining slots.
SPY up ~2% on the week, led by mega-cap tech, while breadth lagged (RSP -4.09% vs SPY over 21 sessions). Long yields are above 5%, and services and manufacturing price indexes are hot after a Fed hike. Payrolls were weak, with downward revisions. Dispersion is inflated by an anomalous ETHA print, which looks like a likely data artifact. Few catalysts fall inside the window: FOMC minutes, petroleum data and a federal holiday.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes read hawkish and lift yields, hitting duration-sensitive sectors",
"Mega-cap tech rally continues, leaving defensive healthcare behind",
"An oil spike on Middle East supply disrupts the equity tape",
"The healthcare pullback reflects undisclosed policy or drug-pricing news"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-4.08% active over 5 sessions after +0.49% prior",
"quality score 0.790, pullback rank 0.985",
"near-zero SPY beta gives a defensive offset"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +8.34%, at 52w high",
"volume z 1.55"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +7.57%",
"beta 2.32 amid 5%+ long yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.39% active, prior -3.47%",
"ECB hiking into 0.9% growth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.72% active over 5 sessions",
"rate-sensitive with yields high; vol 27%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.39 after -6.61% prior",
"quality 0.123"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prices index highest since 2022",
"Fed hiked; 30y at 5.64%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior -8.95%, 20% below 52w high",
"strong dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"US 2y at 4.79% sustains carry"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+15.96% active, volume z 7.49 with no catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"low vol 4.61%, negative beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"cash-like; wins only if SPY falls"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"198.9% 3-session return, 685% vol: likely data anomaly",
"volume z -1.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -60,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY up ~2% on the week, led by mega-cap tech, while breadth lagged (RSP -4.09% vs SPY over 21 sessions). Long yields are above 5%, and services and manufacturing price indexes are hot after a Fed hike. Payrolls were weak, with downward revisions. Dispersion is inflated by an anomalous ETHA print, which looks like a likely data artifact. Few catalysts fall inside the window: FOMC minutes, petroleum data and a federal holiday.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"SP500",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Healthcare passes as an overreaction reversal. It has a sharp active pullback, high quality evidence and low beta, with no deterioration evidence in the briefing. Other shock losers face rate or fundamental headwinds. The large winners (Brazil, ETHA) lack in-window support. SPY should fill the remaining slots.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY up ~2% on the week, led by mega-cap tech, while breadth lagged (RSP -4.09% vs SPY over 21 sessions). Long yields are above 5%, and services and manufacturing price indexes are hot after a Fed hike. Payrolls were weak, with downward revisions. Dispersion is inflated by an anomalous ETHA print, which looks like a likely data artifact. Few catalysts fall inside the window: FOMC minutes, petroleum data and a federal holiday.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28368,
"latency_seconds": 25.44084598700283,
"output_tokens": 2961,
"total_tokens": 31329
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but possess strong quality scores or potential for reversal, such as BIOTECH, HEALTHCARE, and SOUTH_AFRICA. These candidates are labeled as overreactions and have a >55% probability of beating SPY, making them eligible for allocation.
The market is showing mixed signals with positive economic data (services and manufacturing PMIs above 50, positive GDP growth) but also signs of caution (downward employment revisions, elevated inflation, and cautious survey commentary). The divergence between large and small caps suggests a potential rotation or uncertainty.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued divergence between large and small caps could negatively impact selected assets.",
"Elevated inflation and cautious survey commentary may lead to broader market weakness."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.34% and recent active return of -5.72%.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.495 with a recent pullback rank of 1.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -4.08%.",
"High quality evidence score of 0.790 with a recent pullback rank of 0.985."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.78% and prior active return of -8.95%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.39%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.955."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Long Treasury yields above 5%.",
"Recent active return of -3.16%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme recent return of 198.92%.",
"Horizon vol of 685.45%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 4.09% and prior active return of 8.34%.",
"Prior active rank of 0.985."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 2.27% and prior active return of 7.57%.",
"Prior active rank of 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 15.78%.",
"Volume z-score of 7.49."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.834.",
"Low volatility rank of 1.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.799.",
"Prior active rank of 0.896."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score of 0.794.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.896."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 3.73%.",
"Volume z-score of 5.39."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with positive economic data (services and manufacturing PMIs above 50, positive GDP growth) but also signs of caution (downward employment revisions, elevated inflation, and cautious survey commentary). The divergence between large and small caps suggests a potential rotation or uncertainty.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but possess strong quality scores or potential for reversal, such as BIOTECH, HEALTHCARE, and SOUTH_AFRICA. These candidates are labeled as overreactions and have a >55% probability of beating SPY, making them eligible for allocation.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with positive economic data (services and manufacturing PMIs above 50, positive GDP growth) but also signs of caution (downward employment revisions, elevated inflation, and cautious survey commentary). The divergence between large and small caps suggests a potential rotation or uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19478,
"latency_seconds": 25.994987564976327,
"output_tokens": 3022,
"total_tokens": 22500
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil and healthcare narrowly qualify as positive reversal candidates for different reasons: explicit supply support versus a relative pullback with stronger prior quality. The dollar ranks third on defensive macro support, but its small actual decline does not justify an overreaction label. Other apparent bargains lack sufficient reversal evidence, and recent leaders lack independent near-term confirmation. Unused eligible slots should therefore remain in the benchmark under the fixed rule.
Dispersion is high, although Ethereum's extreme reported move distorts the aggregate. Narrow equity leadership, weak payroll revisions, elevated survey prices and recent policy tightening favor selective rather than broad reversal bets. Oil has a specific supply catalyst, while healthcare offers the strongest relative-pullback setup among the slate's equities. Fed minutes and petroleum data fall inside the window; CPI and the next FOMC decision do not.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Petroleum inventories could build again or production shut-ins could ease, reversing the oil supply thesis.",
"Fed minutes could reinforce tightening expectations, damaging both equities and duration-sensitive exposures.",
"Healthcare has no supplied sector-specific catalyst; concentrated growth leadership could persist through the exit.",
"Ethereum's extreme reported discontinuity and inconsistent return-window summaries reduce confidence in mechanical dispersion and volatility comparisons."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The three-session return was -3.41%, despite prior relative strength of 1.51 percentage points.",
"The energy outlook raised fourth-quarter Brent to $105 and projected further inventory declines amid 4.8 million barrels per day of shut-ins.",
"October 7 petroleum data provide an in-window catalyst absent from the mechanical slate's exposures; recent US inventories nevertheless rose."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.95,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 39,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -4.08% followed positive prior active return of 0.49%, unlike most shock-reversal peers.",
"Quality evidence is 0.790, with a comparatively shallow 3.55% drawdown and unexceptional volume.",
"Weak payroll growth supports a defensive rotation hypothesis, although no healthcare-specific catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.45,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 2.92%, quality evidence is 0.799 and drawdown is only 0.36%.",
"Fed tightening and elevated US survey prices support the currency, but the ECB also raised rates.",
"The three-session decline was only 0.21%, insufficient to establish a meaningful price overreaction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence of 0.834 primarily reflects low volatility, shallow drawdown and relative-history inputs.",
"A positive 0.04% recent return and near-zero beta indicate benchmark-relative lag rather than a distressed asset price.",
"Weak payrolls and policy tightening offer defensive support, offset by expanding activity and consumption."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is at its reported 52-week high, while equal-weight performance lagged by 4.09 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"Expansionary activity and real spending offset weak employment and elevated inflation.",
"As the benchmark, its excess return is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 8.34% and recent active return of 4.09% show strong leadership.",
"Volume z-score is 1.55 and drawdown is shallow, but the fund is at its 52-week high.",
"No sector-specific in-window catalyst is supplied to validate extrapolating that strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 7.57%, but recent volume z-score was -0.67.",
"Beta of 2.32 and volatility of 29.72% create substantial sensitivity to a leadership reversal.",
"Manufacturing expansion offers broad demand context, not a chip-specific catalyst before October 13."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence is 0.794, but prior active return was slightly negative at -0.15%.",
"The actual three-session decline was only 0.07%, despite a much larger benchmark-relative deficit.",
"No Japanese policy catalyst is supplied, while US rates remain elevated."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The -5.72% recent active return merits a reversal test, but follows -3.74% prior underperformance.",
"Volatility is 27.38%, drawdown is 7.88%, and quality evidence is only 0.495.",
"Recent Fed tightening is a financing headwind; no clinical, merger or regulatory catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent outperformance of 1.70% coincided with volume z-score 5.39.",
"Prior active return was -6.61%, drawdown was 9.00%, and quality evidence is 0.123.",
"October 6 yields declined, but long yields above 5% and elevated inflation constrain a durable rate-sensitive rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were -3.16% and -4.31%, respectively.",
"The Fed raised rates while services and manufacturing prices indexes reached 74.0 and 77.9.",
"Weak payrolls and the October 6 yield decline support a reversal alternative, but do not erase the inflation headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.39% followed prior active return of -3.47%.",
"The ECB raised rates and projected only 0.9% growth, with upside inflation and downside growth risks.",
"Higher forecast energy prices provide an additional economic headwind rather than clear evidence of temporary overselling."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior underperformance of 8.95% and a 12.26% drawdown indicate persistent weakness rather than an isolated shock.",
"Quality evidence is 0.339 and recent volume is below baseline.",
"The briefing supplies no country-specific catalyst that could distinguish a temporary overshoot from persistent repricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The 15.78% three-session gain and volume z-score of 7.49 represent an exceptional positive dislocation.",
"Prior active return was -3.14%, volatility is 48.31%, and quality evidence is 0.213.",
"No Brazil-specific news is supplied to validate the magnitude of the jump; the reversal hypothesis is downward, not a buying signal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Reported recent return of 198.92% and volatility of 685.45% make ordinary trend inference unreliable.",
"Volume z-score of -1.39 does not corroborate the extreme reported price move.",
"No crypto-specific catalyst or explanation of the discontinuity is supplied; estimates carry unusually high data uncertainty."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -24,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"OIL": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Dispersion is high, although Ethereum's extreme reported move distorts the aggregate. Narrow equity leadership, weak payroll revisions, elevated survey prices and recent policy tightening favor selective rather than broad reversal bets. Oil has a specific supply catalyst, while healthcare offers the strongest relative-pullback setup among the slate's equities. Fed minutes and petroleum data fall inside the window; CPI and the next FOMC decision do not.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"HEALTHCARE",
"US_DOLLAR"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil and healthcare narrowly qualify as positive reversal candidates for different reasons: explicit supply support versus a relative pullback with stronger prior quality. The dollar ranks third on defensive macro support, but its small actual decline does not justify an overreaction label. Other apparent bargains lack sufficient reversal evidence, and recent leaders lack independent near-term confirmation. Unused eligible slots should therefore remain in the benchmark under the fixed rule.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Dispersion is high, although Ethereum's extreme reported move distorts the aggregate. Narrow equity leadership, weak payroll revisions, elevated survey prices and recent policy tightening favor selective rather than broad reversal bets. Oil has a specific supply catalyst, while healthcare offers the strongest relative-pullback setup among the slate's equities. Fed minutes and petroleum data fall inside the window; CPI and the next FOMC decision do not.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16231,
"latency_seconds": 55.20824015600374,
"output_tokens": 3476,
"reasoning_tokens": 147,
"total_tokens": 19707
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Rank prioritizes supported continuation in medium_strength and volume_dislocation names with positive active returns; no candidates meet both overreaction label and 55% p_beat_spy threshold for non-SPY inclusion.
Mixed macro signals with services expansion but weak payrolls and elevated inflation readings support selective continuation in high-volume assets while reversal candidates show limited independent support.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"elevated services prices index at 74.0",
"downward payroll revisions of 60k",
"high volume dislocation in BRAZIL",
"oil price forecast volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 1.55",
"prior active 8.34"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 7.49",
"recent active 15.96"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 7.57",
"recent active 2.27"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 37,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"spy_return_5s 1.95"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 5.39",
"recent active 1.70"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z -1.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -4.08",
"quality score 0.790"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -3.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -3.78",
"quality score 0.339"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -5.72",
"quality score 0.495"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -3.16"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.834"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.799"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 18,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.794"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 15,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 22,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 18,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed macro signals with services expansion but weak payrolls and elevated inflation readings support selective continuation in high-volume assets while reversal candidates show limited independent support.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"BRAZIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Rank prioritizes supported continuation in medium_strength and volume_dislocation names with positive active returns; no candidates meet both overreaction label and 55% p_beat_spy threshold for non-SPY inclusion.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed macro signals with services expansion but weak payrolls and elevated inflation readings support selective continuation in high-volume assets while reversal candidates show limited independent support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16467,
"latency_seconds": 24.438298947992735,
"output_tokens": 1883,
"reasoning_tokens": 938,
"total_tokens": 19288
}
}xai-grok-4-5
High dispersion and mixed tape favor limited shock-reversal candidates with deep relative pullbacks and decent quality (XLV, XBI, VGK) over stretched continuations; most slate names lack independent one-week catalysts strong enough to prefer them over SPY, so diagnostic leans benchmark while still ranking the cleanest overreactions first for the deterministic eligibility filter.
Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with sticky services/manufacturing expansion, soft payrolls, high survey prices, Fed hike to 3.75-4%, long yields >5%, and oil forecast lift; large-cap strength vs small-cap weakness and mixed international/rate moves favor selective reversal over pure momentum continuation into the one-week window.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky high services/manufacturing price indexes and oil forecast raise could reprice rates higher and pressure duration and defensives",
"Soft payrolls plus downward revisions risk growth scare that hits high-beta semis/cyber/Brazil harder than expected",
"Extreme volume dislocations in UTILITIES and BRAZIL can reverse sharply inside one week",
"Ethereum outlier move and crypto beta create tail risk if risk appetite fades after Oct 6 large-cap strength"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -4.08% with high quality evidence score 0.790 and recent pullback rank 0.985",
"Low SPY corr 0.02 and beta near 0 limit market beta drag",
"Horizon vol 13.89% and max drawdown -3.55% milder than many cyclicals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.72% and prior active -3.74% with top recent pullback rank 1.000",
"Quality score 0.495 and volume z 0.77 show dislocation without extreme volume spike",
"Low SPY corr 0.33 supports idiosyncratic bounce potential"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -3.39% after prior -3.47% with recent pullback rank 0.955 and quality 0.561",
"Volume z 1.34 elevated on the pullback",
"Horizon vol 13.19% moderate versus EM peers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -3.16% and prior -4.31% with pullback rank 0.940",
"Yields eased 2-5 bp on Oct 6 vs prior day while still elevated above 5%",
"Volume z 1.63 on the move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -3.78% after deep prior -8.95% and pullback rank 0.970",
"Distance to 52w high -20.33% and quality 0.339",
"Horizon vol 24.40% and drawdown -12.26% keep risk elevated"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +4.09% with strong prior +8.34% and quality 0.561",
"At 52w high distance 0.00% and volume z 1.55",
"Horizon vol 27.61% implies continuation risk of fade"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +2.27% after prior +7.57% and prior active rank 0.970",
"Beta 2.32 and vol 29.72% amplify SPY moves",
"Distance to high -5.44% leaves room but also mean-reversion risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 1.98% recent return and 0 active by definition",
"Horizon vol 10.41% and max DD -2.10%",
"Positive asset share 62% over 5s supports broad equity backdrop"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score 0.834 with near-zero vol 0.94%",
"Active -2.17% purely from SPY strength",
"Cash-like profile unlikely to beat equities in positive 5s tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.799 and prior active +2.92% with recent mild -1.43% active",
"Negative SPY corr -0.30 offers hedge but lags in risk-on weeks",
"Vol 4.61% low"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.794 with recent active -2.53%",
"Vol 8.72% and drawdown -3.38%",
"Limited one-week catalyst vs equity beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.73% and active +1.70% with extreme volume z 5.39",
"Quality score very low 0.123 and prior active -6.61%",
"Rate-sensitive with long yields still elevated"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme +15.78% recent and volume z 7.49 with distance to high 0%",
"Quality only 0.213 and vol 48.31%",
"Prior active -3.14% suggests squeeze risk after dislocation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Outlier +198.92% recent return and vol 685% with prior active rank 1.000",
"Recent pullback rank 0.000 and volume z -1.39",
"Extreme beta 4.24 and low corr make one-week path unpredictable"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -25,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"EUROPE": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"BIOTECH",
"EUROPE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with sticky services/manufacturing expansion, soft payrolls, high survey prices, Fed hike to 3.75-4%, long yields >5%, and oil forecast lift; large-cap strength vs small-cap weakness and mixed international/rate moves favor selective reversal over pure momentum continuation into the one-week window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"BIOTECH",
"EUROPE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "High dispersion and mixed tape favor limited shock-reversal candidates with deep relative pullbacks and decent quality (XLV, XBI, VGK) over stretched continuations; most slate names lack independent one-week catalysts strong enough to prefer them over SPY, so diagnostic leans benchmark while still ranking the cleanest overreactions first for the deterministic eligibility filter.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Elevated cross-sectional dispersion with sticky services/manufacturing expansion, soft payrolls, high survey prices, Fed hike to 3.75-4%, long yields >5%, and oil forecast lift; large-cap strength vs small-cap weakness and mixed international/rate moves favor selective reversal over pure momentum continuation into the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17466,
"latency_seconds": 38.78425204497762,
"output_tokens": 3090,
"reasoning_tokens": 201,
"total_tokens": 20757
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Highest-conviction one-week edges are relative-pullback healthcare and Europe plus high-vol biotech mean-reversion versus a concentrated SPY tape; duration, cash-like, FX, and already-extended Brazil/ETH/cyber/semi paths lack a clean 55%+ overreaction case except the three named reversals.
Five-session active-return dispersion is elevated while SPY sits at a 52-week high after a 1.98% 3-session gain; sticky survey prices, a fresh 25bp hike, and long yields above 5% argue against duration and against mechanically chasing extreme winners, while several shock-reversal names show deep relative pullbacks versus a still-expanding services/manufacturing backdrop.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky ISM prices and a just-completed hike can keep mega-cap SPY leadership intact, leaving low-beta healthcare/Europe lagging.",
"Oct 7 petroleum data and FOMC minutes can reprice energy and rates before the Oct 13 close.",
"Biotech 27% vol can extend the -5.72% active draw rather than reverse.",
"Brazil/ETH-style extremes show how high dispersion can produce violent fades if risk appetite flips."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s return -4.08% versus SPY with quality evidence score 0.790 and recent pullback rank 0.985.",
"Horizon vol 13.89% and max drawdown -3.55% are milder than other shock-reversal names.",
"SPY corr 0.02 and beta 0.02 imply a one-week path less tied to mega-cap continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.39% and prior 16s active -3.47% with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Volume z 1.34 and quality score 0.561 versus 52w-high distance -6.86%.",
"ECB already hiked 25bp in September; weekly horizon includes no BLS print on the Oct 12 holiday."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -2.34% and active 5s -5.72% with the highest recent pullback rank (1.000) in the quality table.",
"Low SPY corr 0.33 versus 27.38% horizon vol and -11% from 52w high.",
"Shock-reversal slate profile after a large-cap-led Oct 6 session."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -3.78% and prior 16s active -8.95% with 52w-high distance -20.33%.",
"Quality score 0.339, vol 24.40%, max drawdown -12.26%, volume z -0.61.",
"Beta 1.41 leaves residual risk if SPY continues higher."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"10y and 30y yields 5.27% and 5.64% on Oct 6 after a September 25bp hike to 3.75%-4.00%.",
"Active 5s -3.16%, prior 16s active -4.31%, 52w-high distance -12.62%.",
"Services prices 74.0 and manufacturing prices 77.9 remain elevated."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 4.19%, prior 16s active +8.34%, at 52w high with volume z 1.55.",
"Quality prior-active rank 0.985 but recent pullback rank only 0.030.",
"Horizon vol 27.61% versus SPY 10.41%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +2.27% and prior 16s active +7.57% with prior-active rank 0.970.",
"Beta 2.32 and vol 29.72%; 52w-high distance -5.44%.",
"Volume z -0.67 does not confirm a fresh volume impulse."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 3s return 1.98% at 0% from 52w high after Oct 6 S&P 500 +0.6%.",
"Services ISM 54.9 and manufacturing 54.5 remain above 50; Q2 GDP 2.2%.",
"Equal-weight lag (rsp_minus_spy_21s -4.09%) shows concentrated leadership."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 5.39 with recent return 3.73% but quality score only 0.123.",
"Prior 16s active -6.61% and 52w-high distance -11.97%.",
"Low SPY beta 0.18 after a rate-sensitive bounce."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 15.78% and volume z 7.49 with quality score 0.213.",
"Horizon vol 48.31%; already at 52w high after a short continuation.",
"No independent in-window country catalyst in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.799, vol 4.61%, recent return -0.21%.",
"UUP 21s return +2.92% already captured prior dollar strength.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.30 is defensive but unlikely to outpace a still-positive equity tape."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.834 with 0.94% vol and 0.04% recent return.",
"Active 5s -2.17% versus SPY simply reflects cash-like carry.",
"Fed funds already 3.75%-4.00%; bills cannot match equity beta in a one-week risk-on window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.794, recent return -0.07%, 52w-high distance -5.39%.",
"Active 5s -2.53% with volume z -0.67.",
"No Japan-policy catalyst dated inside the Oct 6-13 window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Reported 198.92% 3s return with 685.45% horizon vol and volume z -1.39.",
"Quality recent pullback rank 0.000 despite prior-active rank 1.000.",
"Extreme print is not independently supported by briefing catalysts for the scoring week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"HEALTHCARE",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"EUROPE",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"SHORT_TREASURY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 30,
"EUROPE": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"EUROPE",
"BIOTECH"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active-return dispersion is elevated while SPY sits at a 52-week high after a 1.98% 3-session gain; sticky survey prices, a fresh 25bp hike, and long yields above 5% argue against duration and against mechanically chasing extreme winners, while several shock-reversal names show deep relative pullbacks versus a still-expanding services/manufacturing backdrop.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"EUROPE",
"BIOTECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction one-week edges are relative-pullback healthcare and Europe plus high-vol biotech mean-reversion versus a concentrated SPY tape; duration, cash-like, FX, and already-extended Brazil/ETH/cyber/semi paths lack a clean 55%+ overreaction case except the three named reversals.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active-return dispersion is elevated while SPY sits at a 52-week high after a 1.98% 3-session gain; sticky survey prices, a fresh 25bp hike, and long yields above 5% argue against duration and against mechanically chasing extreme winners, while several shock-reversal names show deep relative pullbacks versus a still-expanding services/manufacturing backdrop.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17608,
"latency_seconds": 46.00048034300562,
"output_tokens": 2836,
"reasoning_tokens": 520,
"total_tokens": 20964
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Biotechnology (XBI)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%Europe Equities (VGK)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Europe Equities (VGK)35%Biotechnology (XBI)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-06 | 208.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-06 | 89.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-06 | 28.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-06 | 28.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-06 | 127.20 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-06 | 150.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-06 | 48.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-06 | 43.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-06 | 67.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-06 | 19.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-06 | 59.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-06 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-06 | 52.22 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-06 | 111.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-06 | 111.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-06 | 81.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-06 | 40.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-06 | 144.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-06 | 108.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-06 | 71.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-06 | 90.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-06 | 60.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-06 | 63.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-06 | 212.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-06 | 60.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-06 | 103.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-06 | 86.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-06 | 54.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-06 | 78.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-06 | 167.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-06 | 77.27 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-06 | 46.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-06 | 171.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-06 | 89.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-06 | 46.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-06 | 102.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-06 | 99.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-06 | 57.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-06 | 77.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-06 | 49.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-06 | 108.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-06 | 72.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-06 | 101.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-06 | 759.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-06 | 41.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-06 | 70.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-06 | 779.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-06 | 632.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-06 | 91.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-06 | 55.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-06 | 111.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-06 | 44.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-06 | 63.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-06 | 186.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-06 | 117.61 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-06 | 202.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-06 | 382.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-06 | 104.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-06 | 46.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-06 | 94.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-06 | 32.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-06 | 28.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-06 | 129.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-06 | 251.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-06 | 71.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-06 | 74.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-06 | 324.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-06 | 281.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-06 | 212.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-06 | 41.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | c46ba581646f...756b2559 |
| manifest.yaml | 49ea594f51cd...18b35c32 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | d6d921ecb3c1...f612e0c0 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 96f53c7a31f7...561803bc |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | c287ae1740fa...24148c49 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 62c28f74d7a5...3c93d906 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 3b35bb6f96ef...11e44f84 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 50f8d837492e...7d8b4d68 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |