Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 4.1.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +39.64%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 69.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-04 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260828-weekly
34,000 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-27
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-28T04:50:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-28T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-28
- Exit date: 2026-09-04
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Final Briefing — August 27, 2026 Decision Date
Research cutoff: 2026-08-28 04:50:00 UTC. Latest completed U.S. market session: 2026-08-27.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. Market Close and Corporate Data
- The Associated Press reported August 27 closes of 7,730.99 for the S&P 500, up 0.7%; 53,569.44 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 0.2%; 26,541.35 for the Nasdaq composite, up 1.6%; and 3,014.34 for the Russell 2000, up 0.3%. AP also reported that a majority of S&P 500 constituents declined and Treasury yields rose.
- NVIDIA reported on August 26 fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, including Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%. Its company outlook, which is a forecast, put next-quarter revenue at $108.0 billion plus or minus 2% and assumed no China Data Center compute revenue.
## Rates and Monetary Policy
- U.S. Treasury August 27 nominal par-yield estimates were 3.81% at one month, 3.94% at six months, 4.20% at two years, 4.38% at five years, 4.67% at ten years, and 5.19% at thirty years. The two-, ten-, and thirty-year estimates were each one basis point lower on August 26. Treasury identifies the series as daily estimates derived from indicative market quotations.
- The Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 by a 9–3 vote; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated.
## Prices, Income, and Growth
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported July personal income up 0.4%, disposable income up 0.5%, nominal consumption up 0.2%, real disposable income up 0.4%, real consumption effectively unchanged, and a 3.0% saving rate. PCE prices rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year; excluding food and energy they rose 0.2% and 3.3%.
- BEA's August 26 second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, real final sales to private domestic purchasers at 4.2%, real gross domestic income at 2.2%, and current-production corporate-profit growth at $400.9 billion. The estimates are subject to revision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July CPI up 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year; CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% and 2.5%. July final-demand PPI was unchanged month over month and up 4.7% year over year; final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% and 4.7%.
## Labor, Production, and Demand
- BLS reported July payroll employment down 23,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and 6.9 million people unemployed. May and June payroll levels were revised down by a combined 103,000. Survey estimates are subject to sampling and nonsampling error and revision.
- BLS reported June job openings at 7.4 million, hires at 5.3 million, separations at 5.4 million, quits at 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges at 1.8 million; it described all five as little changed.
- The Federal Reserve reported July industrial production up 0.2% month over month and 1.1% year over year, manufacturing up 0.2%, business-equipment output up 0.8%, consumer-goods output down 0.4%, and capacity utilization at 76.3%. The release is preliminary and scheduled for revision.
- The Census Bureau reported advance July retail and food-services sales down 0.6% month over month with a ±0.4 percentage-point sampling error and up 5.0% year over year with a ±0.5-point error. Advance durable-goods orders rose 1.1%, including 0.4% excluding transportation and 1.3% excluding defense.
- The Census Bureau reported an advance July goods deficit of $118.8 billion, $17.4 billion wider than June, with exports down $6.0 billion and imports up $11.4 billion. Advance wholesale inventories rose 1.3% month over month with a ±0.2-point sampling error, and advance retail inventories rose 0.7% with a ±0.2-point error; advance estimates are revised with fuller data.
## Housing and Energy
- The Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported July permits at a 1.443 million annual rate, up 5.0% month over month, and starts at a 1.239 million rate, down 12.4% with a ±9.5 percentage-point interval. Single-family starts fell 9.9% with a ±10.4-point interval, which was not statistically significant at that interval.
- July new-home sales were at a 607,000 annual rate, down 10.5% with a ±14.0 percentage-point interval; supply was 488,000 homes or 9.6 months. The monthly and annual sales changes were not statistically significant at the reported intervals.
- The Energy Information Administration reported total crude stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 3.605 million barrels in the week ended August 21, commercial crude stocks up 0.095 million, the reserve down 3.700 million, production at 13.843 million barrels per day, and refinery utilization at 97.4%. Weekly values are estimates and can be revised.
- EIA reported working natural gas in storage at 3,184 billion cubic feet for the week ended August 21, up 15 billion from the prior week. Weekly values are estimates and can be revised.
## International Data
- The European Central Bank left its key rates unchanged on July 23 at 2.25% for deposits, 2.40% for main refinancing operations, and 2.65% for marginal lending. It stated that decisions would remain data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting.
- Eurostat reported final July euro-area inflation of 2.9% year over year, with services contributing 1.55 percentage points and energy 0.94 point. Its preliminary flash estimate put second-quarter euro-area GDP growth at 0.4% quarter over quarter and employment growth at 0.1%; preliminary estimates can be revised.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a July manufacturing PMI of 49.2, a non-manufacturing business-activity index of 49.0, and a composite PMI output index of 49.3. July industrial value added rose 4.5% year over year, including 5.5% for manufacturing.
## Scheduled Releases Inside the Scoring Windows
- September 1: BLS July JOLTS at 10:00 a.m. ET and Eurostat flash August inflation.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET, Census July manufacturers' orders at 10:00 a.m. ET, and EIA weekly petroleum data.
- September 3: BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs and U.S. July trade at 8:30 a.m. ET, plus EIA weekly natural-gas storage.
- September 4: BLS August employment at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 10–11: BLS August PPI on September 10 and August CPI and real earnings on September 11, each at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–18: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections and September 16 press conference; Census August retail sales on September 16, August housing starts on September 17, and Federal Reserve August industrial production on September 18.
- September 24–25: Census August new-home sales on September 24 and advance August durable-goods orders on September 25.
This briefing contains only fixed, cutoff-safe factual datapoints and source-reported statuses, forecasts, schedules, and uncertainties. These facts are presented neutrally, with no ordering signal or asset mapping; the complete mechanical appendix is supplied separately.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-27-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-27'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-28T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-28T04:49:48.962082+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-28'
exit_date: '2026-09-04'
created_at: '2026-08-28T04:49:48.962082+00:00'
notes: 'Brand-new direct public-web research for the 2026-08-27 decision date; latest completed U.S. session 2026-08-27. No prior input report was opened, copied, or used. One-shot closed-capability V3 run.'# CapitalBench Final Briefing — August 27, 2026 Decision Date
Research cutoff: 2026-08-28 04:50:00 UTC. Latest completed U.S. market session: 2026-08-27.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. Market Close and Corporate Data
- The Associated Press reported August 27 closes of 7,730.99 for the S&P 500, up 0.7%; 53,569.44 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, up 0.2%; 26,541.35 for the Nasdaq composite, up 1.6%; and 3,014.34 for the Russell 2000, up 0.3%. AP also reported that a majority of S&P 500 constituents declined and Treasury yields rose.
- NVIDIA reported on August 26 fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, including Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%. Its company outlook, which is a forecast, put next-quarter revenue at $108.0 billion plus or minus 2% and assumed no China Data Center compute revenue.
## Rates and Monetary Policy
- U.S. Treasury August 27 nominal par-yield estimates were 3.81% at one month, 3.94% at six months, 4.20% at two years, 4.38% at five years, 4.67% at ten years, and 5.19% at thirty years. The two-, ten-, and thirty-year estimates were each one basis point lower on August 26. Treasury identifies the series as daily estimates derived from indicative market quotations.
- The Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 by a 9–3 vote; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated.
## Prices, Income, and Growth
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported July personal income up 0.4%, disposable income up 0.5%, nominal consumption up 0.2%, real disposable income up 0.4%, real consumption effectively unchanged, and a 3.0% saving rate. PCE prices rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year; excluding food and energy they rose 0.2% and 3.3%.
- BEA's August 26 second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, real final sales to private domestic purchasers at 4.2%, real gross domestic income at 2.2%, and current-production corporate-profit growth at $400.9 billion. The estimates are subject to revision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported July CPI up 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year; CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% and 2.5%. July final-demand PPI was unchanged month over month and up 4.7% year over year; final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% and 4.7%.
## Labor, Production, and Demand
- BLS reported July payroll employment down 23,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and 6.9 million people unemployed. May and June payroll levels were revised down by a combined 103,000. Survey estimates are subject to sampling and nonsampling error and revision.
- BLS reported June job openings at 7.4 million, hires at 5.3 million, separations at 5.4 million, quits at 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges at 1.8 million; it described all five as little changed.
- The Federal Reserve reported July industrial production up 0.2% month over month and 1.1% year over year, manufacturing up 0.2%, business-equipment output up 0.8%, consumer-goods output down 0.4%, and capacity utilization at 76.3%. The release is preliminary and scheduled for revision.
- The Census Bureau reported advance July retail and food-services sales down 0.6% month over month with a ±0.4 percentage-point sampling error and up 5.0% year over year with a ±0.5-point error. Advance durable-goods orders rose 1.1%, including 0.4% excluding transportation and 1.3% excluding defense.
- The Census Bureau reported an advance July goods deficit of $118.8 billion, $17.4 billion wider than June, with exports down $6.0 billion and imports up $11.4 billion. Advance wholesale inventories rose 1.3% month over month with a ±0.2-point sampling error, and advance retail inventories rose 0.7% with a ±0.2-point error; advance estimates are revised with fuller data.
## Housing and Energy
- The Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported July permits at a 1.443 million annual rate, up 5.0% month over month, and starts at a 1.239 million rate, down 12.4% with a ±9.5 percentage-point interval. Single-family starts fell 9.9% with a ±10.4-point interval, which was not statistically significant at that interval.
- July new-home sales were at a 607,000 annual rate, down 10.5% with a ±14.0 percentage-point interval; supply was 488,000 homes or 9.6 months. The monthly and annual sales changes were not statistically significant at the reported intervals.
- The Energy Information Administration reported total crude stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down 3.605 million barrels in the week ended August 21, commercial crude stocks up 0.095 million, the reserve down 3.700 million, production at 13.843 million barrels per day, and refinery utilization at 97.4%. Weekly values are estimates and can be revised.
- EIA reported working natural gas in storage at 3,184 billion cubic feet for the week ended August 21, up 15 billion from the prior week. Weekly values are estimates and can be revised.
## International Data
- The European Central Bank left its key rates unchanged on July 23 at 2.25% for deposits, 2.40% for main refinancing operations, and 2.65% for marginal lending. It stated that decisions would remain data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting.
- Eurostat reported final July euro-area inflation of 2.9% year over year, with services contributing 1.55 percentage points and energy 0.94 point. Its preliminary flash estimate put second-quarter euro-area GDP growth at 0.4% quarter over quarter and employment growth at 0.1%; preliminary estimates can be revised.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a July manufacturing PMI of 49.2, a non-manufacturing business-activity index of 49.0, and a composite PMI output index of 49.3. July industrial value added rose 4.5% year over year, including 5.5% for manufacturing.
## Scheduled Releases Inside the Scoring Windows
- September 1: BLS July JOLTS at 10:00 a.m. ET and Eurostat flash August inflation.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m. ET, Census July manufacturers' orders at 10:00 a.m. ET, and EIA weekly petroleum data.
- September 3: BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs and U.S. July trade at 8:30 a.m. ET, plus EIA weekly natural-gas storage.
- September 4: BLS August employment at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 10–11: BLS August PPI on September 10 and August CPI and real earnings on September 11, each at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–18: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting with a Summary of Economic Projections and September 16 press conference; Census August retail sales on September 16, August housing starts on September 17, and Federal Reserve August industrial production on September 18.
- September 24–25: Census August new-home sales on September 24 and advance August durable-goods orders on September 25.
This briefing contains only fixed, cutoff-safe factual datapoints and source-reported statuses, forecasts, schedules, and uncertainties. These facts are presented neutrally, with no ordering signal or asset mapping; the complete mechanical appendix is supplied separately.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "c13bf6dd7a929063f51be9e0b5a6e523605a38c04ad99a2320828b67f5bd17b3",
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "526863021c52d2d78ece902c9a5bc72086847bf4e96d43e1243a38e8f85d4dcf",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "76779810f047d8986b1123d79880e1aa4e23b4cee64d939bf407228c9ef7e4c8",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "61dba503d029b1e0bad24979ac6ce3debfecade7c09160acd8d6129f8ee3a21b",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Energy is the one clean overreaction: strong prior relative trend (+4.15%), top-decile pullback, best quality score, near 52w high, with supportive EIA inventory draws and 97.4% refinery utilization. Silver's trend is supported but is continuation, not overreaction, so it is intentionally ineligible; remaining exposure defaults to SPY. Extended tech/crypto winners lack fresh in-window catalysts post-NVIDIA earnings.
SPY up 1.11% on the week with narrow breadth (RSP -0.58% vs SPY, majority of S&P constituents declined on Aug 27), tech-led continuation after NVIDIA's strong report already printed. Dispersion 2.38% is moderate. Post-earnings, the biggest catalyst inside the window is the September 4 payrolls report; prior payrolls fell 23k, keeping rate-cut expectations alive. Best edge is in high-quality pullbacks (Energy) rather than chasing extended tech.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further crude price weakness would drag XLE despite the quality pullback setup",
"September 4 payrolls surprise could reprice rates and hit both equities and metals",
"Narrow breadth reverses and extended tech leadership continues, leaving SPY hard to beat",
"Dollar rebound pressuring commodity-linked positions"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active return +4.15% with sharp -3.40% recent active pullback (pullback rank 0.985)",
"Highest quality evidence score on slate at 0.726; only -2.29% from 52w high",
"EIA showed total crude stocks down 3.6M barrels and refinery utilization at 97.4%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +14.56% with consolidation (+0.69% recent active), gold +13.9% over 21s confirms metals trend",
"Weak payrolls (-23k) and soft CPI support rate-cut narrative favorable to precious metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; +1.11% over 5 sessions, -0.87% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Mild -1.82% recent active vs +1.03% prior; quality score 0.672",
"Oil drag offsets metals strength; mixed complex"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+8.81% active over 5s with volume z +1.38, but -36.5% from 52w high",
"No specific in-window crypto catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.80% recent active but flat prior trend; July retail sales fell 0.6%",
"Real consumption effectively unchanged in July"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.41% active over 5s and +18.70% prior, volume z +1.47",
"52.5% vol and -47% from 52w high; extreme two-sided risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+19% prior active on semi strength, but 64% vol and -8.1% drawdown",
"Highest volatility in slate; extended trend vulnerable to mean reversion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.14% active in 5s is a large one-week move; pullback rank 0.015 (most extended)",
"Volume z -0.71 shows no confirming flow behind the spike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"July manufacturing PMI 49.2 and non-manufacturing 49.0, both contractionary",
"Negative prior active (-3.74%) and -16.5% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Both prior (-3.99%) and recent (-2.50%) active returns negative; no reversal setup",
"Low quality score 0.468 and -7.8% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.48% recent active with 46.5% vol and -11.2% drawdown",
"US production high at 13.84 mbd; futures roll drag on USO"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -7.08%, worst prior trend rank (0.015); Treasury yields rose Aug 27",
"Rate-sensitive laggard in risk-on tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.41% over 21s downtrend; 5.6% vol means near-certain underperformance vs rallying equities",
"Fed-cut expectations from weak payrolls weigh on dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"ENERGY": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"ENERGY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY up 1.11% on the week with narrow breadth (RSP -0.58% vs SPY, majority of S&P constituents declined on Aug 27), tech-led continuation after NVIDIA's strong report already printed. Dispersion 2.38% is moderate. Post-earnings, the biggest catalyst inside the window is the September 4 payrolls report; prior payrolls fell 23k, keeping rate-cut expectations alive. Best edge is in high-quality pullbacks (Energy) rather than chasing extended tech.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"SILVER",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy is the one clean overreaction: strong prior relative trend (+4.15%), top-decile pullback, best quality score, near 52w high, with supportive EIA inventory draws and 97.4% refinery utilization. Silver's trend is supported but is continuation, not overreaction, so it is intentionally ineligible; remaining exposure defaults to SPY. Extended tech/crypto winners lack fresh in-window catalysts post-NVIDIA earnings.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY up 1.11% on the week with narrow breadth (RSP -0.58% vs SPY, majority of S&P constituents declined on Aug 27), tech-led continuation after NVIDIA's strong report already printed. Dispersion 2.38% is moderate. Post-earnings, the biggest catalyst inside the window is the September 4 payrolls report; prior payrolls fell 23k, keeping rate-cut expectations alive. Best edge is in high-quality pullbacks (Energy) rather than chasing extended tech.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28684,
"latency_seconds": 46.567969544033986,
"output_tokens": 3854,
"total_tokens": 32538
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only two candidates clear both the overreaction label and 55% threshold: XLY, whose one-week -1.80% active follows flat prior trend on the lightest volume in the slate with July real disposable income up 0.4%, and MCHI, deeply below its 52w high with low-conviction selling and stable industrial output. Energy is a plausible mean-reversion candidate but the prior 16-session active was positive and crude fundamentals are neutral, so it is ranked third without the overreaction label. Momentum names (IGV, IBIT, ETHA, EWY) have large recent active gains but the briefing supplies no fresh in-window catalyst beyond NVIDIA, which is already priced, and their volatility plus the Sept 4 payroll print at the exit close make continuation bets unattractive. SPY fills remaining slots.
SPY is near highs after a strong 21-day run (+5.71%) led by mega-cap tech and a blowout NVIDIA print, while breadth is weak (RSP -3.06% active over 21 sessions, majority of S&P constituents down on Aug 27). Rates rose modestly with 10y at 4.67% and PCE at 3.7% y/y, keeping duration and rate-sensitive defensives capped. The week contains the August employment report on Sept 4, the exact exit date, which caps conviction in high-beta reversal bets. Dispersion (2.38% weekly active) is normal, so few candidates carry genuine mechanical edge; most slate pullbacks look like modest noise rather than exploitable overreaction.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August employment report on September 4 lands at the exit close and can reprice high-beta and rate-sensitive positions within the scoring window",
"Mega-cap tech leadership post-NVIDIA can keep SPY ahead of the weak-breadth reversal candidates",
"China exposure is subject to policy and geopolitical headlines with sub-50 PMIs signaling genuine slowdown",
"Rising long yields (30y 5.19%) with 3.7% PCE inflation could pressure cyclicals and discretionary consumption",
"Crude inventory and OPEC surprises could extend energy weakness rather than reverse it"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-1.80% active this week against 0.00% prior 16-session active",
"Low volume z of -1.24 suggests drift rather than fundamental selling",
"Real disposable income up 0.4% in July supports consumer spending"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.21% active with -16.50% distance from 52w high",
"Volume z -1.20 indicates low-conviction selling",
"July industrial value added up 4.5% y/y despite sub-50 PMIs"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.40% active this week after +4.15% prior active",
"Total crude stocks including SPR down 3.605 million barrels",
"Highest quality evidence score in slate at 0.726"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+8.81% active with volume z +1.38",
"Still -36.47% from 52w high",
"38.58% horizon volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+14.56% prior active, precious metals trend intact with gold +13.91% 21s",
"PCE 3.7% y/y inflation backdrop",
"35.32% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+19.00% prior active, strongest prior rank in universe",
"NVIDIA data center revenue up 117% supports memory/semis",
"64.16% volatility and beta 3.81 make it fragile"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.82% active this week vs +1.03% prior",
"Quality score 0.672",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.17"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.14% active in one week, worst recent-pullback rank (0.015)",
"39.25% volatility raises mean-reversion risk",
"Prior active +5.78% already strong"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.41% active with volume z +1.47",
"52.45% volatility, -47.28% from 52w high",
"Prior active +18.70%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, +1.00% week, -0.87% from high",
"Lowest volatility among equity slate at 11.48%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.50% active and -3.99% prior active, persistent weakness",
"-7.83% 21s max drawdown",
"No supplied defense-budget catalyst in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.48% active, -11.16% drawdown, 46.47% volatility",
"Commercial crude stocks up 0.095 million barrels; production 13.843 mb/d",
"Refinery utilization 97.4% near seasonal peak with demand fading"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.46% active and -7.08% prior active, worst prior rank tier (0.015)",
"30y yield at 5.19% pressures rate-sensitive defensives",
"-8.32% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5.56% volatility caps upside versus equities",
"-6.34% prior active",
"Volume z -1.49 shows no flow dislocation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CHINA": 35,
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CHINA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near highs after a strong 21-day run (+5.71%) led by mega-cap tech and a blowout NVIDIA print, while breadth is weak (RSP -3.06% active over 21 sessions, majority of S&P constituents down on Aug 27). Rates rose modestly with 10y at 4.67% and PCE at 3.7% y/y, keeping duration and rate-sensitive defensives capped. The week contains the August employment report on Sept 4, the exact exit date, which caps conviction in high-beta reversal bets. Dispersion (2.38% weekly active) is normal, so few candidates carry genuine mechanical edge; most slate pullbacks look like modest noise rather than exploitable overreaction.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"CHINA",
"ENERGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only two candidates clear both the overreaction label and 55% threshold: XLY, whose one-week -1.80% active follows flat prior trend on the lightest volume in the slate with July real disposable income up 0.4%, and MCHI, deeply below its 52w high with low-conviction selling and stable industrial output. Energy is a plausible mean-reversion candidate but the prior 16-session active was positive and crude fundamentals are neutral, so it is ranked third without the overreaction label. Momentum names (IGV, IBIT, ETHA, EWY) have large recent active gains but the briefing supplies no fresh in-window catalyst beyond NVIDIA, which is already priced, and their volatility plus the Sept 4 payroll print at the exit close make continuation bets unattractive. SPY fills remaining slots.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near highs after a strong 21-day run (+5.71%) led by mega-cap tech and a blowout NVIDIA print, while breadth is weak (RSP -3.06% active over 21 sessions, majority of S&P constituents down on Aug 27). Rates rose modestly with 10y at 4.67% and PCE at 3.7% y/y, keeping duration and rate-sensitive defensives capped. The week contains the August employment report on Sept 4, the exact exit date, which caps conviction in high-beta reversal bets. Dispersion (2.38% weekly active) is normal, so few candidates carry genuine mechanical edge; most slate pullbacks look like modest noise rather than exploitable overreaction.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28684,
"latency_seconds": 44.95294402597938,
"output_tokens": 3725,
"total_tokens": 32409
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio focuses on potential reversals in sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks but have underlying fundamental support or high quality scores, such as oil, energy, and consumer discretionary.
The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The recent GDP and inflation data suggest a stable economic environment, but there are underlying concerns about specific sectors like energy and consumer discretionary.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued weakness in the energy sector despite inventory draws.",
"Further deterioration in consumer spending impacting the consumer discretionary sector."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"EIA reported total crude stocks down 3.605 million barrels.",
"Recent return was -1.66%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -1.30%.",
"Quality score is 0.726."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -2.05%.",
"Quality score is 0.666."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 7.68%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 4.90%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 1.46%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 1.13%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 0.92%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 0.37%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -0.09%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -0.05%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -0.27%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 0.21%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 1.00%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY": 30,
"ENERGY": 35,
"OIL": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The recent GDP and inflation data suggest a stable economic environment, but there are underlying concerns about specific sectors like energy and consumer discretionary.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio focuses on potential reversals in sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks but have underlying fundamental support or high quality scores, such as oil, energy, and consumer discretionary.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with some sectors experiencing pullbacks while others continue to show strength. The recent GDP and inflation data suggest a stable economic environment, but there are underlying concerns about specific sectors like energy and consumer discretionary.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19658,
"latency_seconds": 21.751871944987215,
"output_tokens": 2765,
"total_tokens": 22423
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Energy and broad commodities offer the clearest temporary-pullback setups, combining prior relative strength with unusually deep recent underperformance and inflation support. Silver retains independent trend support but is not classified as an overreaction, while the remaining candidates are either fundamentally weak or excessively extended.
High dispersion and narrow mega-cap leadership favor selective reversals over broad continuation. Elevated inflation and weak labor and consumption data create competing risks around the employment report, while rising yields constrain defensive and long-duration exposures.
{
"confidence": 0.575,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A stronger-than-expected August employment report could lift yields and favor SPY over commodity-linked reversals.",
"Weak September 2 petroleum data could extend losses in energy and broad commodities.",
"A rapid reversal in inflation expectations or dollar strength could pressure commodity and precious-metal exposures.",
"Narrow AI-led equity momentum could persist and leave the selected reversal candidates behind."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -3.40% after prior active strength of 4.15%.",
"Quality score was slate-high at 0.726, including a 0.985 recent-pullback rank.",
"The sector remained only 2.29% below its 52-week high despite the pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return fell 1.82% after prior active strength of 1.03%.",
"Quality evidence was 0.672 with a 0.896 pullback rank and 0.716 prior-trend rank.",
"PCE inflation was 3.7% year over year and final-demand PPI was 4.7%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 14.56%, the second-highest prior-trend percentile in the quality table.",
"Recent active return was a restrained 0.69% rather than an extreme extension.",
"Elevated reported inflation provides independent support, though volatility was 35.32%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 1.11% over five sessions and 5.71% over 21 sessions.",
"A majority of S&P 500 constituents declined on August 27 despite the index gain.",
"SPY was 0.87% below its 52-week high."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.50%, but prior active return was already -3.99%.",
"The 21-session drawdown reached 7.83%.",
"Its quality score was only 0.468 despite a high pullback rank."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The quality score was 0.666 and recent active return was -1.80%.",
"July retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% month over month.",
"Payrolls declined by 23,000 and prior months were revised down by 103,000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 18.70% and recent active return remained 6.41%.",
"Volume z-score was elevated at 1.47, supporting participation in the move.",
"Volatility was 52.45%, creating substantial one-week reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 8.81% after prior active strength of 9.90%.",
"Volume z-score was elevated at 1.38.",
"The sharp extension and 38.58% volatility increase reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 7.14% after prior active strength of 5.78%.",
"NVIDIA reported 106% revenue growth and 117% Data Center growth.",
"Volume was below baseline and the quality score was only 0.407, weakening continuation confidence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.21% and prior active return was -3.74%.",
"China's manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and composite PMI readings were all below 50.",
"The fund was 16.50% below its 52-week high."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.46% after prior active underperformance of 7.08%.",
"Treasury yields rose on August 27, a headwind for rate-sensitive equities.",
"The quality score was only 0.393 despite the deep pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was -6.34% and recent active return was -0.72%.",
"Volume z-score was deeply negative at -1.49 rather than confirming a reversal.",
"The August employment report creates two-sided dollar risk inside the window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 19.00%, the strongest prior-trend rank in the universe.",
"The latest three-session return was 4.90%.",
"Volatility was 64.16% with a 3.81 SPY beta, making the one-week outcome highly unstable."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -4.48% with a 21-session drawdown of 11.16%.",
"Commercial crude inventories rose slightly while production was 13.843 million barrels per day.",
"Volatility was 46.47%, and the total stock decline came from a 3.7 million-barrel reserve draw."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BROAD_COMMODITIES": 35,
"ENERGY": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "High dispersion and narrow mega-cap leadership favor selective reversals over broad continuation. Elevated inflation and weak labor and consumption data create competing risks around the employment report, while rising yields constrain defensive and long-duration exposures.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy and broad commodities offer the clearest temporary-pullback setups, combining prior relative strength with unusually deep recent underperformance and inflation support. Silver retains independent trend support but is not classified as an overreaction, while the remaining candidates are either fundamentally weak or excessively extended.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "High dispersion and narrow mega-cap leadership favor selective reversals over broad continuation. Elevated inflation and weak labor and consumption data create competing risks around the employment report, while rising yields constrain defensive and long-duration exposures.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16418,
"latency_seconds": 63.85054665297503,
"output_tokens": 5598,
"reasoning_tokens": 3259,
"total_tokens": 22016
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Ranked SOFTWARE, BITCOIN_ETF and SOUTH_KOREA highest on continuation evidence from earnings and volume; only ENERGY qualifies under overreaction rule but ranks lower.
Mixed signals with software continuation supported by earnings strength offset by energy and commodity pullbacks amid stable macro data and rising yields.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rising Treasury yields pressuring growth assets",
"NVIDIA China revenue assumption uncertainty",
"September employment data volatility",
"Commodity inventory revisions"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"NVIDIA revenue up 106% YoY",
"Software recent return 7.68%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.38",
"Recent active 8.81%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 4.90%",
"Prior active 19.00%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 47,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 0.92%",
"Quality score 0.555"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.47",
"Recent active 6.41%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY return 1.00%",
"Benchmark status"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.672",
"Recent return -0.27%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.726",
"Recent active -3.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 0.21%",
"Low vol 5.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 0.37%",
"Quality score 0.468"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -0.05%",
"Quality score 0.522"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -2.05%",
"Quality score 0.666"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -0.09%",
"Low vol 12.90%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -1.66%",
"Quality score 0.573"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals with software continuation supported by earnings strength offset by energy and commodity pullbacks amid stable macro data and rising yields.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOUTH_KOREA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Ranked SOFTWARE, BITCOIN_ETF and SOUTH_KOREA highest on continuation evidence from earnings and volume; only ENERGY qualifies under overreaction rule but ranks lower.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals with software continuation supported by earnings strength offset by energy and commodity pullbacks amid stable macro data and rising yields.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16639,
"latency_seconds": 16.874113564030267,
"output_tokens": 1922,
"reasoning_tokens": 591,
"total_tokens": 19152
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Quality pullback names ENERGY, XLY and PDBC show the cleanest overreaction profiles with high pullback ranks and decent quality scores after recent underperformance; p_beat only modestly above 55 so prefer_spy remains true while still ranking the three eligible reversal candidates first for the deterministic rule.
SPY firm on mega-cap/tech strength post-NVIDIA; soft labor and mixed growth data with elevated but stable inflation; low-to-normal cross-sectional dispersion favors selective mean-reversion in quality pullbacks over pure momentum continuation into the short window.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued mega-cap/tech momentum could keep SPY elevated and delay mean-reversion in cyclicals and commodities",
"August employment report on 4 Sep may reprice rates and risk appetite sharply",
"High idiosyncratic vol in oil and energy complex can extend the recent shock rather than reverse",
"Soft retail sales and labor data may pressure consumer discretionary further if confirmed"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.726 with extreme recent pullback rank 0.985 after prior active strength",
"Active return -3.40% vs SPY with negative SPY corr and shallow max drawdown -3.76%",
"Crude stocks draw and high refinery utilization provide near-term inventory support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.666 with strong recent pullback rank 0.881 after flat prior active",
"Recent return -2.05% and active -1.80% with volume z -1.24 indicating dislocation",
"July retail sales soft but durable goods orders positive; majority S&P constituents declined while index rose"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence 0.672 with high recent pullback rank 0.896 and prior active positive",
"Active return -1.82% with low SPY corr -0.17",
"Oil and energy complex weakness creates temporary commodity basket oversold condition"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.48% and max drawdown -11.16% with quality 0.573 and top pullback rank",
"EIA crude stocks including SPR down 3.6 mmbbl; production high but utilization 97.4%",
"High horizon vol 46% limits reliability of one-week snapback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -2.50% after prior -3.99% with pullback rank 0.970",
"Quality score only 0.468 and deeper drawdown -7.83%",
"No specific in-window defense catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.21% with pullback rank 0.940 and quality 0.522",
"China July PMI still sub-50 across manufacturing and non-manufacturing",
"Distance to 52w high -16.5% leaves room but fundamental softness persists"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.46% and prior -7.08% with extreme pullback rank 0.955",
"Quality only 0.393; rate-sensitive with yields still elevated",
"Low beta and negative corr offer defensive character but limited upside catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +7.68% and active +7.14% with prior active +5.78%",
"NVIDIA data-center strength supports software/AI complex",
"High vol 39% and quality 0.407 raise fade risk after sharp move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +8.81% recent and prior +9.90% with volume z 1.38",
"Positive risk-appetite backdrop from tech leadership",
"Distance to 52w high -36% and high vol leave continuation fragile"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +18.70% and volume z 1.47 with recent active +6.41%",
"Crypto complex momentum alongside bitcoin",
"Extreme distance to high -47% and vol 52% elevate reversal odds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +14.56% and quality 0.555",
"Gold complex also firm on 21s basis",
"Large distance to 52w high -40% and industrial sensitivity add two-way risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +19.00% top-ranked and recent +4.90%",
"Semiconductor export linkage to AI/tech strength",
"Horizon vol 64% and drawdown -8.13% make one-week edge unreliable"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent flat-to-soft with prior active -6.34% and volume z -1.49",
"Quality 0.395; yields stable after small dip",
"Low vol but limited catalyst to outperform equities in risk-on tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent +1.00% and low drawdown -1.96%",
"Mega-cap leadership and NVIDIA outlook support near-term stability",
"Majority of constituents declined on the latest session"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BROAD_COMMODITIES": 30,
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY": 35,
"ENERGY": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY firm on mega-cap/tech strength post-NVIDIA; soft labor and mixed growth data with elevated but stable inflation; low-to-normal cross-sectional dispersion favors selective mean-reversion in quality pullbacks over pure momentum continuation into the short window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality pullback names ENERGY, XLY and PDBC show the cleanest overreaction profiles with high pullback ranks and decent quality scores after recent underperformance; p_beat only modestly above 55 so prefer_spy remains true while still ranking the three eligible reversal candidates first for the deterministic rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY firm on mega-cap/tech strength post-NVIDIA; soft labor and mixed growth data with elevated but stable inflation; low-to-normal cross-sectional dispersion favors selective mean-reversion in quality pullbacks over pure momentum continuation into the short window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17668,
"latency_seconds": 47.07021804101532,
"output_tokens": 3048,
"reasoning_tokens": 219,
"total_tokens": 20935
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-week scoring is dominated by mega-cap index support and an in-window payrolls print. SOFTWARE has the strongest independent continuation tape but already extended; ENERGY is the best quality pullback yet lacks a 55% beat-SPY case. No non-SPY name is both labeled overreaction and ≥55% to beat SPY except OIL at 46%, so the mechanical rule should leave slots in SPY.
SPY is near a 52-week high with mega-cap/Nasdaq leadership (NVDA print) while a majority of S&P names fell, equal-weight lagged, and 5-session active dispersion is only 2.38%. Labor softening and the Aug payrolls print on 2026-09-04 sit inside the scoring window, so one-week edges versus SPY are mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"BLS August employment on 2026-09-04 can reprice rates, growth, and mega-cap leadership inside the exit close.",
"Elevated PCE/CPI prints and a still-restrictive funds range leave duration-sensitive defensives and cyclicals two-way.",
"High-vol continuations (software, crypto, Korea) can reverse without volume confirmation.",
"Oil/energy bounce can fail if commercial inventories keep building despite SPR draws."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return +1.11% and 21-session +5.71% with distance to 52w high only -0.87%.",
"AP: S&P 500 closed 7730.99, +0.7% on Aug 27, while a majority of constituents declined.",
"NVIDIA reported $96.2B Q2 revenue and guided ~$108B next quarter, supporting mega-cap index concentration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE recent return +7.68% and active 5s +7.14% after prior active +5.78%.",
"Horizon vol 39.25% and volume z -0.71, so the move is not volume-confirmed.",
"Quality evidence score 0.407 with recent pullback rank 0.015, indicating little unused pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score on the slate at 0.726 with recent pullback rank 0.985 after prior active +4.15%.",
"Active 5s -3.40% with negative SPY corr (-0.32) and beta -0.52.",
"EIA: commercial crude +0.095mb while SPR -3.7mb; production 13.843 mbpd and refinery utilization 97.4%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +8.81% after prior active +9.90% with volume z 1.38.",
"Still -36.47% from 52w high; vol 38.58%.",
"SPY corr only 0.35, so crypto path can diverge over one week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +18.70% and active 5s +6.41% with volume z 1.47.",
"Horizon vol 52.45% and -47.28% from 52w high.",
"Quality score 0.510 with recent pullback rank 0.045."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +14.56% with modest recent +0.92% and active 5s +0.69%.",
"Vol 35.32% and -40.56% from 52w high.",
"Quality score 0.555; gold 21s +13.91% in mechanical state as related precious-metals context."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +19.00% and recent +4.90%, but horizon vol 64.16% and beta 3.81.",
"Volume z -1.21 and -16.91% from 52w high.",
"Quality score 0.499 with low-vol rank 0.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.672 with recent pullback rank 0.896 after prior active +1.03%.",
"Active 5s -1.82%, negative SPY corr.",
"USO 5s -3.37% while IAU 21s +13.91% shows mixed commodity internals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.666 but recent return -2.05% and active 5s -1.80%.",
"Census advance July retail and food-services sales -0.6% m/m.",
"BEA: real consumption effectively unchanged in July; BLS July payrolls -23,000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -4.48% with recent pullback rank 1.000 and quality score 0.573.",
"Horizon vol 46.47% and max drawdown -11.16%, beta -1.20.",
"EIA week ended Aug 21: total crude including SPR -3.605mb; commercial crude +0.095mb."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -2.50% after prior active -3.99%; quality score 0.468.",
"Horizon max drawdown -7.83% and 52w-high distance -7.49%.",
"Census durable-goods orders +1.1% including 1.3% excluding defense, mixed for the cluster."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5s -2.21% after prior -3.74%; -16.50% from 52w high.",
"NBS July manufacturing PMI 49.2, non-manufacturing 49.0, composite 49.3.",
"Volume z -1.20; quality score 0.522."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -7.08% and active 5s -2.46%; quality score 0.393.",
"Treasury 10y 4.67% and 30y 5.19% on Aug 27; Fed funds still 3.50–3.75% with inflation described as elevated.",
"Low SPY corr (-0.13) but 52w-high distance -8.32%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP 21s -1.41% and prior active -6.34%; recent +0.21%.",
"Volume z -1.49 with horizon vol only 5.56%.",
"Negative SPY corr (-0.38) but quality score 0.395."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"ENERGY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"UTILITIES",
"CHINA",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CHINA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with mega-cap/Nasdaq leadership (NVDA print) while a majority of S&P names fell, equal-weight lagged, and 5-session active dispersion is only 2.38%. Labor softening and the Aug payrolls print on 2026-09-04 sit inside the scoring window, so one-week edges versus SPY are mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-week scoring is dominated by mega-cap index support and an in-window payrolls print. SOFTWARE has the strongest independent continuation tape but already extended; ENERGY is the best quality pullback yet lacks a 55% beat-SPY case. No non-SPY name is both labeled overreaction and ≥55% to beat SPY except OIL at 46%, so the mechanical rule should leave slots in SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with mega-cap/Nasdaq leadership (NVDA print) while a majority of S&P names fell, equal-weight lagged, and 5-session active dispersion is only 2.38%. Labor softening and the Aug payrolls print on 2026-09-04 sit inside the scoring window, so one-week edges versus SPY are mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-27-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17810,
"latency_seconds": 47.454972428968176,
"output_tokens": 2885,
"reasoning_tokens": 623,
"total_tokens": 21318
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)35%China Equities (MCHI)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)35%Energy Sector (XLE)35%Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Broad Commodities (PDBC)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)35%Broad Commodities (PDBC)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 476f8cf287a7...8bf361b4 |
| manifest.yaml | c13bf6dd7a92...f5bd17b3 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 768734125e32...6f4e6903 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 3132e206f398...54cafeb0 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 526863021c52...f85d4dcf |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 76779810f047...9ef7e4c8 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | b3270f1c0205...8fee583f |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 61dba503d029...8ee3a21b |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |