Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 64.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward defensive equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +56.43% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
7 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-15 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
7 artifacts published.
official-20260708
41,711 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Energy Sector (XLE)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-08
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-09T00:30:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-09T07:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-08
- Exit date: 2026-07-15
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-08-1W
Research cutoff: 2026-07-09T00:30:00Z
Round window: July 8, 2026 close to July 15, 2026 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close
- On July 8, the S&P 500 closed at 7,482.71, down 0.3%; the Dow closed at 52,348.39, down 1.1%; the Nasdaq closed at 25,870.65, up 0.2%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,956.39, down 0.9%.
- Week-to-date through July 8, the S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%, the Dow was down 1.0%, the Nasdaq was up 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 was down 1.3%.
- Year-to-date through July 8, the S&P 500 was up 9.3%, the Dow was up 8.9%, the Nasdaq was up 11.3%, and the Russell 2000 was up 19.1%.
- A July 8 market-data snapshot showed VIX at 16.90, up 4.77% from the previous close.
- July 8 market coverage described the Dow's worst day in a month, mixed S&P 500 and Nasdaq performance, a technology rally, oil higher, and 10-year yields higher.
## Macro And Policy
- BLS reported June nonfarm payroll employment rose by 57,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, the labor force participation rate was 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.0%.
- BLS revised April payroll growth down from 179,000 to 148,000 and May payroll growth down from 172,000 to 129,000.
- BLS reported June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month to $37.64 and were up 3.5% over 12 months. The average workweek was 34.3 hours.
- BEA reported May current-dollar personal income up 0.7%, disposable personal income up 0.7%, current-dollar PCE up 0.7%, and real PCE up 0.3%.
- BEA reported the May PCE price index up 0.4% month over month and core PCE up 0.3% month over month. The FOMC minutes said staff estimated May PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE inflation at 3.4%.
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote.
- The July 8 FOMC minutes said all participants supported maintaining the target range at the June meeting. The minutes described inflation as elevated and upside price risks as elevated.
- Federal Reserve G.19 data for May showed total consumer credit about unchanged on a seasonally adjusted annual-rate basis. Revolving credit decreased at a 4.7% annual rate, while nonrevolving credit increased at a 1.6% annual rate.
## Business Activity
- ISM reported the June Manufacturing PMI at 53.3. Manufacturing new orders were 56.0, production 52.2, employment 49.7, supplier deliveries 57.4, and prices 73.0.
- ISM reported the June Services PMI at 54.0. Services business activity was 55.4, new orders 55.1, employment 51.2, supplier deliveries 54.4, and prices 67.7.
- ISM services reported employment expanded for the first time in four months. Reported shortage categories included computers, electronic components, memory components, software licensing, steel, switchgear, transformers, and wire/cable.
## Energy, Rates, And Geopolitics
- July 8 market coverage reported Brent crude climbed 5% above $78 after renewed doubts about the Iran truce.
- The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved near 4.60% and later stood around 4.57%, up from 4.55% late Tuesday.
- The FOMC minutes described scenarios where inflation could remain elevated because of AI-related demand, Middle East developments, tariffs, or other factors.
## Company And Sector Calendar Facts
- TSMC's investor calendar listed June 2026 monthly sales for July 10.
- JPMorgan Chase scheduled Q2 2026 earnings for July 14 with a morning conference call.
- Wells Fargo scheduled Q2 2026 earnings for July 14 with a 10:00 a.m. Eastern conference call.
## Scheduled Items Before The July 15 Close
- July 10: TSMC June 2026 monthly sales.
- July 14, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: BLS June CPI.
- July 14: JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Q2 2026 earnings events.
- July 15, 2:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Beige Book.
## Price Context Note
The separate full-universe appendix is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data and sorted by option order. Trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts.
## Full-Universe Trailing Returns
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-08
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-08 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-08 | 0.05% | 0.28% | 1.45% | 3.51% | -0.81% | 0.24% | -0.01% | 70.00% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-08 | -0.05% | 1.10% | 8.68% | 21.49% | 0.00% | 15.87% | -3.17% | 40.00% | -1.61% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-08 | -0.28% | 1.33% | 8.92% | 21.92% | 0.23% | 15.21% | -2.49% | 40.00% | -1.35% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -1.89% | -0.54% | 14.93% | 29.43% | -1.63% | 30.78% | -4.93% | 45.00% | -4.55% | 1.37 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-08 | -0.99% | -0.87% | 3.12% | 15.08% | -1.97% | 22.92% | -5.03% | 45.00% | -5.33% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-08 | 0.54% | 3.67% | 14.24% | 27.33% | 2.57% | 14.24% | -1.39% | 60.00% | -1.03% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-08 | -2.24% | 1.09% | 9.61% | 19.39% | -0.01% | 16.04% | -3.09% | 55.00% | -3.09% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-08 | -1.95% | 3.54% | 14.11% | 34.02% | 2.45% | 16.76% | -2.32% | 55.00% | -2.32% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-08 | -1.82% | 3.42% | 15.32% | 35.05% | 2.32% | 13.53% | -1.83% | 50.00% | -1.83% | 1.04 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-08 | 1.54% | 0.95% | 15.67% | 22.72% | -0.14% | 12.49% | -2.93% | 50.00% | -0.71% | 0.30 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.82% | 4.88% | 6.77% | 6.86% | 3.78% | 15.17% | -1.89% | 60.00% | -1.38% | 0.06 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-08 | -4.04% | 0.04% | 24.53% | 34.11% | -1.06% | 46.32% | -9.50% | 55.00% | -8.80% | 1.50 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -2.27% | -1.39% | 26.07% | 42.30% | -2.49% | 38.86% | -6.75% | 50.00% | -8.37% | 1.66 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -0.26% | -1.21% | -6.29% | 3.80% | -2.31% | 19.09% | -5.76% | 55.00% | -8.32% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -2.36% | 0.12% | -5.82% | 6.77% | -0.97% | 23.35% | -4.21% | 55.00% | -7.03% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 1.31% | 2.29% | 8.94% | 6.61% | 1.20% | 18.08% | -3.58% | 50.00% | -5.06% | -0.04 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 1.73% | 6.79% | 3.52% | 22.35% | 5.69% | 21.05% | -3.34% | 60.00% | -1.30% | 0.36 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 0.35% | 6.14% | -0.81% | 6.92% | 5.05% | 15.37% | -2.08% | 60.00% | -2.08% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -1.60% | 4.17% | 13.24% | 22.76% | 3.07% | 25.05% | -3.38% | 65.00% | -2.77% | 0.98 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 5.28% | -3.99% | 21.09% | 29.55% | -5.09% | 24.15% | -8.81% | 40.00% | -10.48% | -0.17 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -1.69% | 0.78% | 6.47% | 11.97% | -0.32% | 24.15% | -4.50% | 55.00% | -5.69% | 0.78 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 1.32% | 4.89% | 9.48% | 14.92% | 3.80% | 15.58% | -3.10% | 70.00% | -3.69% | 0.17 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -0.07% | 1.15% | 10.87% | 10.27% | 0.06% | 19.76% | -3.31% | 55.00% | -2.41% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.55% | 0.32% | -1.21% | 2.67% | -0.78% | 5.60% | -1.31% | 60.00% | -3.34% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -1.36% | 0.06% | -1.62% | 2.13% | -1.03% | 10.44% | -3.18% | 45.00% | -5.74% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.34% | 2.22% | -1.12% | 4.48% | -0.78% | 55.00% | -2.06% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-08 | -0.73% | -0.01% | -0.49% | 3.79% | -1.11% | 5.62% | -1.51% | 50.00% | -2.17% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-08 | 0.09% | 0.62% | 0.86% | 5.06% | -0.48% | 3.31% | -0.39% | 40.00% | -0.35% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.47% | 0.20% | -0.27% | 3.64% | -0.89% | 4.30% | -1.01% | 60.00% | -2.03% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.03% | 1.22% | 10.78% | 27.15% | 0.12% | 22.20% | -3.07% | 55.00% | -2.83% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.08% | 1.56% | 7.11% | 22.37% | 0.46% | 22.27% | -4.34% | 50.00% | -3.38% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.47% | 2.13% | 5.42% | 16.61% | 1.03% | 17.88% | -2.08% | 55.00% | -1.99% | 0.94 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.55% | 1.19% | 12.29% | 31.88% | 0.09% | 26.96% | -4.57% | 60.00% | -4.57% | 1.15 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | 2.56% | -1.35% | -14.58% | -2.32% | -2.45% | 19.13% | -8.10% | 50.00% | -19.61% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -1.14% | 3.05% | -9.44% | -12.64% | 1.95% | 15.40% | -2.54% | 60.00% | -12.64% | 0.61 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 1.03% | -5.70% | -8.95% | 23.26% | -6.80% | 29.16% | -7.99% | 45.00% | -24.45% | 0.64 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 5.32% | -5.68% | 22.57% | 29.62% | -6.77% | 19.53% | -10.44% | 35.00% | -12.11% | -0.16 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -4.43% | -0.86% | 56.47% | 109.84% | -1.96% | 64.28% | -13.07% | 55.00% | -11.35% | 2.26 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -0.92% | -3.30% | -11.43% | -16.73% | -4.39% | 29.72% | -11.37% | 40.00% | -21.47% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -1.67% | -2.90% | 20.00% | 43.37% | -4.00% | 44.18% | -7.81% | 55.00% | -10.79% | 1.85 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -5.08% | -5.98% | -2.42% | 40.31% | -7.07% | 41.25% | -8.23% | 30.00% | -13.91% | 2.15 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | 0.60% | 6.51% | 26.97% | 21.77% | 5.42% | 24.85% | -3.34% | 45.00% | -2.74% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-08 | -6.33% | -14.85% | 7.42% | 42.17% | -15.94% | 45.04% | -14.85% | 35.00% | -26.77% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-08 | -2.32% | -13.98% | -10.49% | 49.10% | -15.08% | 34.26% | -15.44% | 35.00% | -23.20% | 1.68 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-08 | -0.57% | 2.61% | 8.89% | 17.14% | 1.51% | 13.27% | -1.83% | 60.00% | -1.30% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-08 | 4.10% | 27.02% | 31.86% | 93.27% | 25.92% | 24.25% | -1.93% | 75.00% | -0.55% | 1.04 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-08 | -3.73% | 4.84% | 8.99% | 18.96% | 3.75% | 19.56% | -3.73% | 70.00% | -3.73% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-08 | -1.73% | 5.52% | 5.51% | 28.96% | 4.42% | 28.11% | -4.45% | 65.00% | -4.45% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.52% | 0.31% | 6.95% | 27.74% | -0.78% | 10.37% | -3.08% | 60.00% | -2.05% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 1.20% | 1.56% | 5.73% | 20.80% | 0.47% | 16.92% | -2.28% | 40.00% | -3.13% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 1.52% | 1.59% | 8.14% | 10.95% | 0.49% | 16.80% | -4.42% | 50.00% | -5.77% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -1.50% | -1.57% | 71.42% | 159.19% | -2.67% | 86.40% | -17.82% | 45.00% | -16.64% | 2.62 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -1.69% | 3.46% | 58.77% | 88.47% | 2.36% | 46.90% | -8.65% | 60.00% | -6.84% | 1.69 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.67% | 3.11% | 5.65% | 25.23% | 2.01% | 17.77% | -2.99% | 40.00% | -16.76% | 0.98 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.74% | 1.21% | 7.56% | 26.89% | 0.12% | 22.81% | -5.37% | 45.00% | -6.67% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.06% | -1.18% | -8.92% | 25.57% | -2.28% | 32.93% | -8.61% | 50.00% | -21.49% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.35% | 0.35% | 0.12% | 4.93% | -0.75% | 4.82% | -0.99% | 65.00% | -1.96% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.40% | 0.24% | 0.76% | 5.72% | -0.85% | 2.66% | -0.61% | 55.00% | -0.79% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-08 | -0.24% | 0.95% | 1.96% | 9.42% | -0.14% | 5.68% | -0.65% | 45.00% | -0.65% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.91% | -0.02% | -0.32% | 1.40% | -1.12% | 3.56% | -1.20% | 50.00% | -1.90% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-08 | -1.40% | -14.21% | -24.21% | 58.70% | -15.30% | 50.90% | -18.42% | 45.00% | -49.97% | 1.66 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-08 | -0.38% | -3.84% | 3.90% | 9.77% | -4.93% | 27.67% | -8.42% | 50.00% | -8.69% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 2.83% | 4.90% | 6.19% | 11.17% | 3.80% | 14.01% | -1.52% | 55.00% | -3.86% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 8.66% | -16.97% | 59.07% | 45.80% | -18.07% | 43.43% | -23.59% | 40.00% | -26.64% | -0.99 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-08 | -0.46% | 1.18% | 4.00% | 8.26% | 0.08% | 5.06% | -0.74% | 50.00% | -0.60% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-08 | 0.48% | -0.85% | -1.59% | -1.90% | -1.94% | 5.35% | -2.19% | 55.00% | -4.78% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-08 | 0.05% | -1.43% | -3.52% | -10.12% | -2.53% | 5.12% | -1.74% | 25.00% | -10.31% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-08 | 3.62% | -1.84% | -31.62% | -43.01% | -2.93% | 39.72% | -11.79% | 45.00% | -50.58% | 1.79 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-08 | 7.55% | 3.07% | -44.09% | -33.72% | 1.97% | 58.87% | -14.68% | 40.00% | -64.17% | 2.95 | pass |
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-08-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-08'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-09T07:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-08'
exit_date: '2026-07-15'
created_at: '2026-07-09T00:14:28.786936+00:00'
notes: 'Post-close July 8, 2026 one-week portfolio round. Grok 4.5 joins the official provider run per operator instruction. The one-week exit snapshot uses the July 15, 2026 close.'# CapitalBench Briefing - CB-2026-07-08-1W
Research cutoff: 2026-07-09T00:30:00Z
Round window: July 8, 2026 close to July 15, 2026 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close
- On July 8, the S&P 500 closed at 7,482.71, down 0.3%; the Dow closed at 52,348.39, down 1.1%; the Nasdaq closed at 25,870.65, up 0.2%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,956.39, down 0.9%.
- Week-to-date through July 8, the S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%, the Dow was down 1.0%, the Nasdaq was up 0.1%, and the Russell 2000 was down 1.3%.
- Year-to-date through July 8, the S&P 500 was up 9.3%, the Dow was up 8.9%, the Nasdaq was up 11.3%, and the Russell 2000 was up 19.1%.
- A July 8 market-data snapshot showed VIX at 16.90, up 4.77% from the previous close.
- July 8 market coverage described the Dow's worst day in a month, mixed S&P 500 and Nasdaq performance, a technology rally, oil higher, and 10-year yields higher.
## Macro And Policy
- BLS reported June nonfarm payroll employment rose by 57,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%, the labor force participation rate was 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.0%.
- BLS revised April payroll growth down from 179,000 to 148,000 and May payroll growth down from 172,000 to 129,000.
- BLS reported June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month to $37.64 and were up 3.5% over 12 months. The average workweek was 34.3 hours.
- BEA reported May current-dollar personal income up 0.7%, disposable personal income up 0.7%, current-dollar PCE up 0.7%, and real PCE up 0.3%.
- BEA reported the May PCE price index up 0.4% month over month and core PCE up 0.3% month over month. The FOMC minutes said staff estimated May PCE inflation at 4.1% and core PCE inflation at 3.4%.
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote.
- The July 8 FOMC minutes said all participants supported maintaining the target range at the June meeting. The minutes described inflation as elevated and upside price risks as elevated.
- Federal Reserve G.19 data for May showed total consumer credit about unchanged on a seasonally adjusted annual-rate basis. Revolving credit decreased at a 4.7% annual rate, while nonrevolving credit increased at a 1.6% annual rate.
## Business Activity
- ISM reported the June Manufacturing PMI at 53.3. Manufacturing new orders were 56.0, production 52.2, employment 49.7, supplier deliveries 57.4, and prices 73.0.
- ISM reported the June Services PMI at 54.0. Services business activity was 55.4, new orders 55.1, employment 51.2, supplier deliveries 54.4, and prices 67.7.
- ISM services reported employment expanded for the first time in four months. Reported shortage categories included computers, electronic components, memory components, software licensing, steel, switchgear, transformers, and wire/cable.
## Energy, Rates, And Geopolitics
- July 8 market coverage reported Brent crude climbed 5% above $78 after renewed doubts about the Iran truce.
- The 10-year Treasury yield briefly moved near 4.60% and later stood around 4.57%, up from 4.55% late Tuesday.
- The FOMC minutes described scenarios where inflation could remain elevated because of AI-related demand, Middle East developments, tariffs, or other factors.
## Company And Sector Calendar Facts
- TSMC's investor calendar listed June 2026 monthly sales for July 10.
- JPMorgan Chase scheduled Q2 2026 earnings for July 14 with a morning conference call.
- Wells Fargo scheduled Q2 2026 earnings for July 14 with a 10:00 a.m. Eastern conference call.
## Scheduled Items Before The July 15 Close
- July 10: TSMC June 2026 monthly sales.
- July 14, 8:30 a.m. Eastern: BLS June CPI.
- July 14: JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Q2 2026 earnings events.
- July 15, 2:00 p.m. Eastern: Federal Reserve Beige Book.
## Price Context Note
The separate full-universe appendix is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data and sorted by option order. Trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts.# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-08
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-08 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -1.10% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-08 | 0.05% | 0.28% | 1.45% | 3.51% | -0.81% | 0.24% | -0.01% | 70.00% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-08 | -0.05% | 1.10% | 8.68% | 21.49% | 0.00% | 15.87% | -3.17% | 40.00% | -1.61% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-08 | -0.28% | 1.33% | 8.92% | 21.92% | 0.23% | 15.21% | -2.49% | 40.00% | -1.35% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -1.89% | -0.54% | 14.93% | 29.43% | -1.63% | 30.78% | -4.93% | 45.00% | -4.55% | 1.37 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-08 | -0.99% | -0.87% | 3.12% | 15.08% | -1.97% | 22.92% | -5.03% | 45.00% | -5.33% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-08 | 0.54% | 3.67% | 14.24% | 27.33% | 2.57% | 14.24% | -1.39% | 60.00% | -1.03% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-08 | -2.24% | 1.09% | 9.61% | 19.39% | -0.01% | 16.04% | -3.09% | 55.00% | -3.09% | 1.01 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-08 | -1.95% | 3.54% | 14.11% | 34.02% | 2.45% | 16.76% | -2.32% | 55.00% | -2.32% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-08 | -1.82% | 3.42% | 15.32% | 35.05% | 2.32% | 13.53% | -1.83% | 50.00% | -1.83% | 1.04 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-08 | 1.54% | 0.95% | 15.67% | 22.72% | -0.14% | 12.49% | -2.93% | 50.00% | -0.71% | 0.30 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.82% | 4.88% | 6.77% | 6.86% | 3.78% | 15.17% | -1.89% | 60.00% | -1.38% | 0.06 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-08 | -4.04% | 0.04% | 24.53% | 34.11% | -1.06% | 46.32% | -9.50% | 55.00% | -8.80% | 1.50 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -2.27% | -1.39% | 26.07% | 42.30% | -2.49% | 38.86% | -6.75% | 50.00% | -8.37% | 1.66 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -0.26% | -1.21% | -6.29% | 3.80% | -2.31% | 19.09% | -5.76% | 55.00% | -8.32% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -2.36% | 0.12% | -5.82% | 6.77% | -0.97% | 23.35% | -4.21% | 55.00% | -7.03% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 1.31% | 2.29% | 8.94% | 6.61% | 1.20% | 18.08% | -3.58% | 50.00% | -5.06% | -0.04 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 1.73% | 6.79% | 3.52% | 22.35% | 5.69% | 21.05% | -3.34% | 60.00% | -1.30% | 0.36 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 0.35% | 6.14% | -0.81% | 6.92% | 5.05% | 15.37% | -2.08% | 60.00% | -2.08% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -1.60% | 4.17% | 13.24% | 22.76% | 3.07% | 25.05% | -3.38% | 65.00% | -2.77% | 0.98 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 5.28% | -3.99% | 21.09% | 29.55% | -5.09% | 24.15% | -8.81% | 40.00% | -10.48% | -0.17 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -1.69% | 0.78% | 6.47% | 11.97% | -0.32% | 24.15% | -4.50% | 55.00% | -5.69% | 0.78 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | 1.32% | 4.89% | 9.48% | 14.92% | 3.80% | 15.58% | -3.10% | 70.00% | -3.69% | 0.17 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-08 | -0.07% | 1.15% | 10.87% | 10.27% | 0.06% | 19.76% | -3.31% | 55.00% | -2.41% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.55% | 0.32% | -1.21% | 2.67% | -0.78% | 5.60% | -1.31% | 60.00% | -3.34% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -1.36% | 0.06% | -1.62% | 2.13% | -1.03% | 10.44% | -3.18% | 45.00% | -5.74% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.11% | -0.02% | -0.34% | 2.22% | -1.12% | 4.48% | -0.78% | 55.00% | -2.06% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-08 | -0.73% | -0.01% | -0.49% | 3.79% | -1.11% | 5.62% | -1.51% | 50.00% | -2.17% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-08 | 0.09% | 0.62% | 0.86% | 5.06% | -0.48% | 3.31% | -0.39% | 40.00% | -0.35% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.47% | 0.20% | -0.27% | 3.64% | -0.89% | 4.30% | -1.01% | 60.00% | -2.03% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.03% | 1.22% | 10.78% | 27.15% | 0.12% | 22.20% | -3.07% | 55.00% | -2.83% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.08% | 1.56% | 7.11% | 22.37% | 0.46% | 22.27% | -4.34% | 50.00% | -3.38% | 1.08 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.47% | 2.13% | 5.42% | 16.61% | 1.03% | 17.88% | -2.08% | 55.00% | -1.99% | 0.94 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.55% | 1.19% | 12.29% | 31.88% | 0.09% | 26.96% | -4.57% | 60.00% | -4.57% | 1.15 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | 2.56% | -1.35% | -14.58% | -2.32% | -2.45% | 19.13% | -8.10% | 50.00% | -19.61% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-08 | -1.14% | 3.05% | -9.44% | -12.64% | 1.95% | 15.40% | -2.54% | 60.00% | -12.64% | 0.61 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 1.03% | -5.70% | -8.95% | 23.26% | -6.80% | 29.16% | -7.99% | 45.00% | -24.45% | 0.64 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 5.32% | -5.68% | 22.57% | 29.62% | -6.77% | 19.53% | -10.44% | 35.00% | -12.11% | -0.16 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -4.43% | -0.86% | 56.47% | 109.84% | -1.96% | 64.28% | -13.07% | 55.00% | -11.35% | 2.26 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -0.92% | -3.30% | -11.43% | -16.73% | -4.39% | 29.72% | -11.37% | 40.00% | -21.47% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -1.67% | -2.90% | 20.00% | 43.37% | -4.00% | 44.18% | -7.81% | 55.00% | -10.79% | 1.85 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | -5.08% | -5.98% | -2.42% | 40.31% | -7.07% | 41.25% | -8.23% | 30.00% | -13.91% | 2.15 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-08 | 0.60% | 6.51% | 26.97% | 21.77% | 5.42% | 24.85% | -3.34% | 45.00% | -2.74% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-08 | -6.33% | -14.85% | 7.42% | 42.17% | -15.94% | 45.04% | -14.85% | 35.00% | -26.77% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-08 | -2.32% | -13.98% | -10.49% | 49.10% | -15.08% | 34.26% | -15.44% | 35.00% | -23.20% | 1.68 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-08 | -0.57% | 2.61% | 8.89% | 17.14% | 1.51% | 13.27% | -1.83% | 60.00% | -1.30% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-08 | 4.10% | 27.02% | 31.86% | 93.27% | 25.92% | 24.25% | -1.93% | 75.00% | -0.55% | 1.04 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-08 | -3.73% | 4.84% | 8.99% | 18.96% | 3.75% | 19.56% | -3.73% | 70.00% | -3.73% | 0.83 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-08 | -1.73% | 5.52% | 5.51% | 28.96% | 4.42% | 28.11% | -4.45% | 65.00% | -4.45% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.52% | 0.31% | 6.95% | 27.74% | -0.78% | 10.37% | -3.08% | 60.00% | -2.05% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 1.20% | 1.56% | 5.73% | 20.80% | 0.47% | 16.92% | -2.28% | 40.00% | -3.13% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 1.52% | 1.59% | 8.14% | 10.95% | 0.49% | 16.80% | -4.42% | 50.00% | -5.77% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -1.50% | -1.57% | 71.42% | 159.19% | -2.67% | 86.40% | -17.82% | 45.00% | -16.64% | 2.62 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -1.69% | 3.46% | 58.77% | 88.47% | 2.36% | 46.90% | -8.65% | 60.00% | -6.84% | 1.69 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | 0.67% | 3.11% | 5.65% | 25.23% | 2.01% | 17.77% | -2.99% | 40.00% | -16.76% | 0.98 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.74% | 1.21% | 7.56% | 26.89% | 0.12% | 22.81% | -5.37% | 45.00% | -6.67% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-08 | -0.06% | -1.18% | -8.92% | 25.57% | -2.28% | 32.93% | -8.61% | 50.00% | -21.49% | 1.58 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.35% | 0.35% | 0.12% | 4.93% | -0.75% | 4.82% | -0.99% | 65.00% | -1.96% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.40% | 0.24% | 0.76% | 5.72% | -0.85% | 2.66% | -0.61% | 55.00% | -0.79% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-08 | -0.24% | 0.95% | 1.96% | 9.42% | -0.14% | 5.68% | -0.65% | 45.00% | -0.65% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-08 | -0.91% | -0.02% | -0.32% | 1.40% | -1.12% | 3.56% | -1.20% | 50.00% | -1.90% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-08 | -1.40% | -14.21% | -24.21% | 58.70% | -15.30% | 50.90% | -18.42% | 45.00% | -49.97% | 1.66 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-08 | -0.38% | -3.84% | 3.90% | 9.77% | -4.93% | 27.67% | -8.42% | 50.00% | -8.69% | 1.23 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 2.83% | 4.90% | 6.19% | 11.17% | 3.80% | 14.01% | -1.52% | 55.00% | -3.86% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-08 | 8.66% | -16.97% | 59.07% | 45.80% | -18.07% | 43.43% | -23.59% | 40.00% | -26.64% | -0.99 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-08 | -0.46% | 1.18% | 4.00% | 8.26% | 0.08% | 5.06% | -0.74% | 50.00% | -0.60% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-08 | 0.48% | -0.85% | -1.59% | -1.90% | -1.94% | 5.35% | -2.19% | 55.00% | -4.78% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-08 | 0.05% | -1.43% | -3.52% | -10.12% | -2.53% | 5.12% | -1.74% | 25.00% | -10.31% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-08 | 3.62% | -1.84% | -31.62% | -43.01% | -2.93% | 39.72% | -11.79% | 45.00% | -50.58% | 1.79 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-08 | 7.55% | 3.07% | -44.09% | -33.72% | 1.97% | 58.87% | -14.68% | 40.00% | -64.17% | 2.95 | pass |Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "f48dcdb60f6d674558873430c5c02cbd99b027c8367b957f8ab4b88f4cf877fc",
"manifest.yaml": "94b1ec9b73acb42e599deca3a3c9e3fbf6959aed6e8bdfdde339dd21592efb57",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "214b5d4c889a81e8b06cac9f4d7678919c1237d16ffd785e4952595e9a280d5d",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "fbdbb99aa8f75d9f4f56981b952b93392d035c88e01fd08e64450596f25e9208",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "74765a42d67967459eaa2ebe43e18bb98ef3504031393e19e404961760a3f4f5",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "03b5e9792d4c6bade89526a62f43cbdf51184fe03753997a0637de246e708b81"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-08-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Tilt toward value, energy, financials, and healthcare given rising yields, sticky inflation (core PCE 3.4%, hawkish minutes), oil spike on Iran risk, and bank earnings catalysts before the July 15 close, avoiding rate-sensitive growth into the July 14 CPI print.
Defensive-value and energy tilt with bank earnings and geopolitical oil catalysts, avoiding high-beta tech ahead of a risky CPI print.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A soft CPI print on July 14 could spark a growth/tech rally that this value tilt misses",
"An Iran truce resolution could quickly reverse energy gains",
"JPMorgan/Wells Fargo earnings disappointment or weak guidance hitting financials",
"Biotech momentum reversal after a sharp 30-day run"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative strength, defensive against elevated inflation and rate risk into CPI, low beta."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 5% above $78 on Iran truce doubts; geopolitical tension likely supports energy equities through the week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "JPMorgan and Wells Fargo Q2 earnings July 14; sector showing positive momentum and benefits from higher yields."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong persistent momentum (75% up days, near 52w high, +27% 30d) with modest drawdown risk."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value outperforming amid rising yields and sticky inflation; lower beta cushion ahead of CPI."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward value, energy, financials, and healthcare given rising yields, sticky inflation (core PCE 3.4%, hawkish minutes), oil spike on Iran risk, and bank earnings catalysts before the July 15 close, avoiding rate-sensitive growth into the July 14 CPI print.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive-value and energy tilt with bank earnings and geopolitical oil catalysts, avoiding high-beta tech ahead of a risky CPI print.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 21738,
"latency_seconds": 12.397128248936497,
"output_tokens": 713,
"total_tokens": 22451
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Balancing defensive leaders (healthcare, low-vol, utilities) with catalyst-driven exposures (financials into bank earnings, energy on Middle East risk premium). Avoiding stretched tech/momentum ahead of CPI print given elevated inflation risks flagged in FOMC minutes.
Defensive-leaning barbell with catalyst plays: healthcare and low-vol for stability, financials for bank earnings, energy for geopolitical premium.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot June CPI on July 14 could pressure defensives and rate-sensitive sectors",
"Bank earnings disappointment from JPM/WFC could sink financials allocation",
"Iran truce holding would reverse oil premium and hit energy sector",
"Broad risk-on rotation into tech/growth would leave defensive tilt underperforming SPY"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong momentum (+6.8% 30d), defensive with low beta 0.36, outperforming SPY significantly."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "JPM/WFC earnings July 14 catalyst; sector +6.1% 30d with steepening curve support."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent +5% on Iran truce doubts; oil geopolitical premium likely persists through window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Defensive tilt with CPI July 14 and Fed minutes flagging elevated inflation risks; low beta hedge."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Defensive with AI power demand tailwind; strong 30d relative outperformance."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Balancing defensive leaders (healthcare, low-vol, utilities) with catalyst-driven exposures (financials into bank earnings, energy on Middle East risk premium). Avoiding stretched tech/momentum ahead of CPI print given elevated inflation risks flagged in FOMC minutes.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive-leaning barbell with catalyst plays: healthcare and low-vol for stability, financials for bank earnings, energy for geopolitical premium.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 21747,
"latency_seconds": 12.248277031001635,
"output_tokens": 704,
"total_tokens": 22451
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward defensive and catalyst-rich sectors (healthcare, financials with bank earnings, energy on oil strength, utilities) that showed positive relative strength, given elevated inflation risk, rising yields, and a soft payroll print heading into CPI week.
Overweight relative-strength defensives and near-term earnings/oil catalysts while holding short duration cash to buffer rate and geopolitical risk.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Bank earnings (JPM/WFC) disappoint or guidance weakens, dragging Financials below benchmark",
"Iran truce holds and oil reverses, reversing Energy's recent 5%+ gains",
"Hot June CPI on July 14 spikes yields and pressures rate-sensitive Utilities",
"Tech-led rally continues and market-cap weighted SPY outpaces this defensive tilt"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong 30d relative outperformance (+5.7% vs SPY), defensive low-beta profile with momentum into a week featuring CPI and elevated inflation risk."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "JPM and WFC Q2 earnings July 14 are near-term catalysts; sector shows strong relative strength (+5% vs SPY 30d) and higher yields support net interest margins."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 5% above $78 on Iran truce doubts; energy led with +5.3% 7d momentum and low correlation to broad market provides diversification."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Defensive low-beta with strong 30d relative strength (+3.8% vs SPY) and high up-day share; hedge against elevated VIX and inflation surprises."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Cash-like buffer against rising yields near 4.60%, CPI risk, and geopolitical volatility while preserving allocation flexibility."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive and catalyst-rich sectors (healthcare, financials with bank earnings, energy on oil strength, utilities) that showed positive relative strength, given elevated inflation risk, rising yields, and a soft payroll print heading into CPI week.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight relative-strength defensives and near-term earnings/oil catalysts while holding short duration cash to buffer rate and geopolitical risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 21742,
"latency_seconds": 13.05316337896511,
"output_tokens": 830,
"total_tokens": 22572
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is heavily tilted toward energy and oil to capitalize on the recent 5% surge in Brent crude driven by geopolitical tensions. Financials are included to capture potential upside from major bank earnings scheduled just before the round closes.
Overweighting oil and energy due to geopolitical catalysts, with a tactical allocation to financials ahead of key bank earnings.
{
"confidence": 0.7,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden easing of Middle East tensions could cause a sharp reversal in oil prices.",
"The July 14 CPI report could come in hotter than expected, triggering a broad market selloff.",
"Disappointing earnings or guidance from major banks could negatively impact the financials allocation."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Brent crude surged 5% on renewed geopolitical tensions, providing a strong short-term catalyst for oil prices."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities are positioned to benefit directly from the spike in underlying crude oil prices."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Allocating to financials ahead of major Q2 earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo on July 14."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward energy and oil to capitalize on the recent 5% surge in Brent crude driven by geopolitical tensions. Financials are included to capture potential upside from major bank earnings scheduled just before the round closes.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweighting oil and energy due to geopolitical catalysts, with a tactical allocation to financials ahead of key bank earnings.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15517,
"latency_seconds": 9.328313541016541,
"output_tokens": 408,
"reasoning_tokens": 589,
"total_tokens": 16514
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The allocation emphasizes near-term catalysts most likely to move prices before July 15: Middle East-driven oil volatility, TSMC sales, and CPI-related sector rotation. It combines high-upside oil and biotech exposure with energy equities, semiconductors, and a smaller defensive healthcare sleeve to seek alpha versus SPY.
Position for oil/geopolitical continuation, biotech and healthcare relative strength, and a semiconductor rebound around TSMC sales. Avoid broad duration-sensitive bonds and broad market exposure given elevated inflation risks and rising yields.
{
"confidence": 0.36,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A rapid easing of Middle East tensions or crude inventory weakness could reverse the oil spike and hurt both OIL and ENERGY.",
"June CPI could come in benign, triggering a growth-led rally in broad equities that outperforms the more commodity- and healthcare-tilted portfolio.",
"TSMC monthly sales could disappoint or be interpreted as already priced in, causing semiconductor weakness to continue.",
"Biotech's very strong recent gains could reverse sharply on profit-taking or risk-off flows.",
"Higher yields and weaker payroll revisions could weigh on equity risk appetite broadly, including high-beta biotech and semiconductors."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct exposure to the sharp crude move after renewed Iran-truce doubts, with geopolitical and inflation catalysts capable of affecting prices within the one-week window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities can benefit if the oil price spike persists, while offering less futures-specific volatility than direct crude exposure."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Biotech has strong short-term relative momentum, is near its 52-week high, and may be less directly hurt than broad growth equities by the CPI and rates catalyst."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "TSMC June sales on July 10 provide a near-term AI supply-chain catalyst after a recent pullback in semiconductor shares."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has recent relative strength and defensive characteristics that may help if CPI or yields pressure broad equities."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The allocation emphasizes near-term catalysts most likely to move prices before July 15: Middle East-driven oil volatility, TSMC sales, and CPI-related sector rotation. It combines high-upside oil and biotech exposure with energy equities, semiconductors, and a smaller defensive healthcare sleeve to seek alpha versus SPY.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Position for oil/geopolitical continuation, biotech and healthcare relative strength, and a semiconductor rebound around TSMC sales. Avoid broad duration-sensitive bonds and broad market exposure given elevated inflation risks and rising yields.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14024,
"latency_seconds": 19.69078137096949,
"output_tokens": 916,
"reasoning_tokens": 414,
"total_tokens": 14940
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Concentrated in three sectors with near-term positive catalysts and recent price strength to maximize one-week alpha versus SPX.
Energy and financials positioned for oil and earnings catalysts; healthcare adds defensive tilt before CPI and Beige Book.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Weaker-than-expected CPI could trigger broad equity rally favoring growth over value/energy tilt",
"Bank earnings misses on July 14 could reverse financials outperformance",
"Rapid de-escalation in Middle East could reverse oil gains before July 15 close"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil prices rose sharply on geopolitical supply concerns that can persist through the window; sector showed strongest 7d return."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Major bank earnings on July 14 provide direct catalysts; sector posted solid recent performance amid higher yields."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive characteristics and strong 7d/30d returns provide ballast ahead of CPI release."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated in three sectors with near-term positive catalysts and recent price strength to maximize one-week alpha versus SPX.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy and financials positioned for oil and earnings catalysts; healthcare adds defensive tilt before CPI and Beige Book.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14210,
"latency_seconds": 6.780296677025035,
"output_tokens": 339,
"reasoning_tokens": 422,
"total_tokens": 14971
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Concentrate in oil/energy for the active geopolitical catalyst, biotech for momentum persistence, and financials/value for the July 14 earnings and inflation-rate backdrop that should favor cyclicals over growth/tech into the one-week close.
One-week edge comes from oil geopolitics, bank earnings, and value/cyclical tilt amid sticky inflation signals rather than broad beta or long-duration assets.
{
"confidence": 0.42,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Iran de-escalation or inventory data reverse the oil spike before July 15 close",
"Hotter-than-expected June CPI on July 14 triggers broad risk-off that hits high-beta biotech and energy equities",
"JPM/WFC earnings miss or guidance disappointment undercuts financials allocation",
"Sudden risk-off or VIX spike reverses recent biotech and commodity momentum"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Geopolitical premium from Iran truce doubts already lifting Brent above $78; short-window supply risk can sustain or extend the 7d surge into the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Direct equity beta to the same oil move plus sector leverage; recent 7d outperformance and elevated ISM prices support continuation versus broad equities."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strongest 30d and solid 7d relative strength with low drawdown; risk-on factor that can keep running absent a sharp market-wide risk-off before July 15."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "JPM and WFC Q2 prints on July 14 provide a concrete near-term catalyst; higher yields and recent relative strength favor the sector over growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt benefits from elevated inflation narrative in FOMC minutes and rate resilience; lower beta and positive 7d/30d relative returns versus SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrate in oil/energy for the active geopolitical catalyst, biotech for momentum persistence, and financials/value for the July 14 earnings and inflation-rate backdrop that should favor cyclicals over growth/tech into the one-week close.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "One-week edge comes from oil geopolitics, bank earnings, and value/cyclical tilt amid sticky inflation signals rather than broad beta or long-duration assets.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-08-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14771,
"latency_seconds": 10.772783362073824,
"output_tokens": 604,
"reasoning_tokens": 646,
"total_tokens": 16021
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Biotechnology (XBI)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)15%Utilities Sector (XLU)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Utilities Sector (XLU)15%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)15% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)40%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Financials Sector (XLF)30% | 0.70 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Biotechnology (XBI)25%Semiconductors (SMH)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)10% | 0.36 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)40%Financials Sector (XLF)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)10% | 0.42 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-08 | 239.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-08 | 93.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-08 | 27.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-08 | 28.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-08 | 123.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-08 | 162.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-08 | 35.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-08 | 34.41 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-08 | 62.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-08 | 16.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-08 | 57.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-08 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-08 | 52.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-08 | 109.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-08 | 115.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-08 | 84.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-08 | 37.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-08 | 112.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-08 | 91.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-08 | 70.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-08 | 95.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-08 | 59.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-08 | 55.60 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-08 | 212.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-08 | 13.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-08 | 105.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-08 | 88.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-08 | 54.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-08 | 76.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-08 | 162.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-08 | 79.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-08 | 48.65 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-08 | 180.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-08 | 93.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-08 | 47.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-08 | 107.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-08 | 92.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-08 | 56.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-08 | 84.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-08 | 50.16 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-08 | 101.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-08 | 74.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-08 | 106.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-08 | 711.44 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-08 | 44.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-08 | 73.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-08 | 745.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-08 | 593.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-08 | 91.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-08 | 52.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-08 | 92.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-08 | 54.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-08 | 62.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-08 | 182.72 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-08 | 103.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-08 | 181.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-08 | 368.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-08 | 108.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-08 | 46.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-08 | 98.04 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-08 | 32.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-08 | 28.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-08 | 121.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-08 | 245.20 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-08 | 75.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-08 | 74.73 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-08 | 314.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-08 | 293.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-08 | 217.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-08 | 45.36 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | f48dcdb60f6d...4cf877fc |
| manifest.yaml | 94b1ec9b73ac...592efb57 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | 214b5d4c889a...9a280d5d |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | fbdbb99aa8f7...f25e9208 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | 74765a42d679...60a3f4f5 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 03b5e9792d4c...6e708b81 |