Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 36.2 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Grok 4.5 is lowest at 3.7.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 75.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-15 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260904-weekly-clean
31,603 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Software (IGV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- Decision date: 2026-09-04
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-05T02:45:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-08T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-09-08
- Exit date: 2026-09-15
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — September 4, 2026
Research cutoff: September 5, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, equivalent to September 4 at
22:45 Eastern Daylight Time. Market-data observations end September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Labor and domestic activity
- BLS's August employment release, reported by CNBC on September 4, showed
seasonally adjusted payroll growth of 162,000 and unchanged unemployment of
4.1%. June and July payroll gains were revised to 31,000 and 21,000. Average
hourly earnings rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Payroll estimates remain
subject to revision.
- BEA's August 26 second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at 1.5%
annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private
domestic purchasers grew 4.2% annualized, revised upward by 0.3 percentage
point. These are quarterly annualized measures.
## Prices and household spending
- BEA reported July headline and core PCE price increases of 0.2% each from
June. Their year-over-year increases were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
- BEA reported July nominal consumption growth of 0.2%, real consumption
growth below 0.1%, disposable personal income growth of 0.5%, and a 3.0%
personal saving rate. The release revised April–June estimates.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29 the Federal Reserve retained the 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target
range by a 9–3 vote. The dissenting voters preferred a 0.25-percentage-point
increase. The statement described solid activity and inflation above 2%.
- CNBC's September 4 Treasury report, updated at 16:12 EDT, quoted two-year,
ten-year, and thirty-year yields of 4.377%, 4.784%, and 5.245%. These are
article-time quotes. It reported CME FedWatch pricing of a 58% probability
of a quarter-point September increase; that is a market-implied estimate,
not a policy decision.
## Equity-market observations
- CNBC reported September 4 closes of 53,414.25 for the Dow, 7,718.60 for the
S&P 500, and 26,506.99 for the Nasdaq Composite. Their session changes were
−0.51%, −0.38%, and −0.29%, respectively. Exchange-wide advancing/declining
issue counts and a current credit-spread observation are not supplied.
## International activity and prices
- Eurostat's August flash estimate, reported September 1 by CNBC, put annual
euro-area inflation at 3.3%, versus 2.9% in July. Energy inflation increased
to 14.3% from 10.3%, while core inflation decreased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
- China's official August manufacturing PMI was 49.8, versus 49.2 in July,
according to NBS data reported August 31 in China by CNBC. Production was
50.4, new orders 50.6, and new export orders 50.1; the headline was below
50 while those components were above 50.
## Energy and trade
- CNBC's September 4 energy report put U.S. nationwide diesel at $5.85 per
gallon, versus $3.71 in its year-earlier comparison. It reported refinery
interruptions in Russia and the Middle East.
- BEA and Census reported a July nominal goods-and-services deficit of $88.6
billion, versus revised June $71.2 billion. July exports were $310.7 billion
and imports $399.3 billion. The year-to-date deficit was 29.6% below the
comparable 2025 period. The figures are seasonally adjusted, not price-adjusted.
- On September 4 President Trump threatened to stop trade with countries
having trade surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cut rates,
CNBC reported. The report provided no implementation date or confirmation
of an enacted blanket trade halt.
## Scheduled events
The shared entry date is September 8. The weekly window ends September 15;
the monthly window ends October 8. NYSE is closed September 7 for Labor Day.
Dates below are scheduled, with outcomes unknown at the cutoff.
| Date | Publisher or institution | Scheduled event | Within scoring window |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| September 10 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August producer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 10 | ECB, as reported by CNBC | Monetary-policy decision | Weekly and monthly |
| September 11 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August consumer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 15–16 | Federal Reserve | FOMC meeting and economic projections; decision September 16 | Decision is monthly only, after the weekly exit |
| September 24, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | Second-quarter international transactions and investment position | Monthly |
| September 30, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | GDP third estimate and annual updates; August personal income and outlays | Monthly |
| October 6, 08:30 Eastern | BEA and Census | August international trade | Monthly |
All facts and scheduled events remain descriptive context. No inclusion,
placement, or grouping expresses an expected return. The complete mechanical
appendix is descriptive price history, not a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-04-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-08T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-96dc9f3d5254
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-05T02:40:19.091929+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-08'
exit_date: '2026-09-15'
created_at: '2026-09-05T02:40:19.091929+00:00'
notes: >-
Fresh September 4, 2026 direct public-source research, prepared independently
of prior briefings. Entry is the next eligible NYSE session after the weekend
and September 7 Labor Day holiday. Exit is the fifth post-entry NYSE session.
GPT-6 Astra replaces retired GPT-5.6 SOL prospectively; no historical backfill.# Market Briefing — September 4, 2026
Research cutoff: September 5, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, equivalent to September 4 at
22:45 Eastern Daylight Time. Market-data observations end September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Labor and domestic activity
- BLS's August employment release, reported by CNBC on September 4, showed
seasonally adjusted payroll growth of 162,000 and unchanged unemployment of
4.1%. June and July payroll gains were revised to 31,000 and 21,000. Average
hourly earnings rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Payroll estimates remain
subject to revision.
- BEA's August 26 second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at 1.5%
annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private
domestic purchasers grew 4.2% annualized, revised upward by 0.3 percentage
point. These are quarterly annualized measures.
## Prices and household spending
- BEA reported July headline and core PCE price increases of 0.2% each from
June. Their year-over-year increases were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
- BEA reported July nominal consumption growth of 0.2%, real consumption
growth below 0.1%, disposable personal income growth of 0.5%, and a 3.0%
personal saving rate. The release revised April–June estimates.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29 the Federal Reserve retained the 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target
range by a 9–3 vote. The dissenting voters preferred a 0.25-percentage-point
increase. The statement described solid activity and inflation above 2%.
- CNBC's September 4 Treasury report, updated at 16:12 EDT, quoted two-year,
ten-year, and thirty-year yields of 4.377%, 4.784%, and 5.245%. These are
article-time quotes. It reported CME FedWatch pricing of a 58% probability
of a quarter-point September increase; that is a market-implied estimate,
not a policy decision.
## Equity-market observations
- CNBC reported September 4 closes of 53,414.25 for the Dow, 7,718.60 for the
S&P 500, and 26,506.99 for the Nasdaq Composite. Their session changes were
−0.51%, −0.38%, and −0.29%, respectively. Exchange-wide advancing/declining
issue counts and a current credit-spread observation are not supplied.
## International activity and prices
- Eurostat's August flash estimate, reported September 1 by CNBC, put annual
euro-area inflation at 3.3%, versus 2.9% in July. Energy inflation increased
to 14.3% from 10.3%, while core inflation decreased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
- China's official August manufacturing PMI was 49.8, versus 49.2 in July,
according to NBS data reported August 31 in China by CNBC. Production was
50.4, new orders 50.6, and new export orders 50.1; the headline was below
50 while those components were above 50.
## Energy and trade
- CNBC's September 4 energy report put U.S. nationwide diesel at $5.85 per
gallon, versus $3.71 in its year-earlier comparison. It reported refinery
interruptions in Russia and the Middle East.
- BEA and Census reported a July nominal goods-and-services deficit of $88.6
billion, versus revised June $71.2 billion. July exports were $310.7 billion
and imports $399.3 billion. The year-to-date deficit was 29.6% below the
comparable 2025 period. The figures are seasonally adjusted, not price-adjusted.
- On September 4 President Trump threatened to stop trade with countries
having trade surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cut rates,
CNBC reported. The report provided no implementation date or confirmation
of an enacted blanket trade halt.
## Scheduled events
The shared entry date is September 8. The weekly window ends September 15;
the monthly window ends October 8. NYSE is closed September 7 for Labor Day.
Dates below are scheduled, with outcomes unknown at the cutoff.
| Date | Publisher or institution | Scheduled event | Within scoring window |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| September 10 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August producer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 10 | ECB, as reported by CNBC | Monetary-policy decision | Weekly and monthly |
| September 11 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August consumer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 15–16 | Federal Reserve | FOMC meeting and economic projections; decision September 16 | Decision is monthly only, after the weekly exit |
| September 24, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | Second-quarter international transactions and investment position | Monthly |
| September 30, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | GDP third estimate and annual updates; August personal income and outlays | Monthly |
| October 6, 08:30 Eastern | BEA and Census | August international trade | Monthly |
All facts and scheduled events remain descriptive context. No inclusion,
placement, or grouping expresses an expected return. The complete mechanical
appendix is descriptive price history, not a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "d508c24e2cc904c5341cfc07dacc8aec2cbce83c4ee24ed76b11f26e785e5861",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "23250589a77632258bfbd680757c4d9a8f78e5568c2dca6350a4cbbf3c1ec257",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "4c56af0f82cb66748ef2c5d312625e05d3ee828de6a2c113e0d6ad790792acd7",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "4fb2fcdeb80aafde1ec85cebecabdf98272ea901bac4b9c36ba2a942ef24602b",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "bbd67102e68df4954cd0e620264168b4cf692b1563191f38a1803f2a32924e48",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "744b1b7a1916b02eaf81b0e7776af383543056a1ac936db35546a57c22c6c13c",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "afbc88ae149852edf67256afef980fefd5d14a438993a62b0394e3d95326692d",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
SOFTWARE is the only slate name pairing a top-percentile prior relative trend with a top-percentile recent pullback and no briefing evidence of fundamental deterioration, so it earns a modest overreaction edge. MATERIALS is a lower-volatility overreaction case near its high with supportive China PMI components. CYBERSECURITY shares the pullback but weaker prior trend, so it sits just below the eligibility threshold. Extended winners (OIL, crypto, BRAZIL) lack in-window catalysts; AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY and MUNICIPAL_BONDS show trend or macro deterioration rather than overreaction.
Macro backdrop is stagflationary: core PCE 3.3% y/y, oil up 19% over 21 sessions with diesel at $5.85, 10y at 4.78%, and a 58% market-implied probability of a September hike with a hawkish dissent already on record. Weekly window contains PPI (Sep 10), ECB (Sep 10), and CPI (Sep 11) but the FOMC decision falls after the exit. Active dispersion is moderate (2.03%), breadth is weak (RSP -0.87% vs SPY over 5 sessions). Cross-section shows high-beta tech/crypto strength alongside a sharp software/cyber pullback; energy continuation is supply-driven. With rate-hike risk unresolved and CPI in-window, edges are modest and reversal candidates need a defensible pullback plus a prior trend.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI on September 11 prints hot and lifts September hike odds above 58%, hitting high-duration software and cyber names hardest",
"Oil supply disruption extends, pushing yields and inflation expectations up and rotating capital away from growth toward energy",
"Trade-halt threat against surplus countries escalates, hitting risk assets and cyclicals such as materials",
"Software pullback reflects sector-specific earnings or AI-displacement concerns not captured in the briefing, so selling continues"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +10.04% (rank 0.970) against a recent -4.61% active pullback (rank 1.000)",
"Highest quality evidence score on the slate at 0.761; volume z -0.61 shows no distribution surge",
"No briefing item cites a software-specific fundamental deterioration; horizon vol 41% and -11.2% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -1.50% (pullback rank 0.940) after prior +1.83% active; quality score 0.728",
"Only -2.29% from 52w high with 15% vol and -2.98% drawdown, positive volume z 0.68",
"China August PMI components (production 50.4, new orders 50.6, export orders 50.1) above 50; euro-area energy inflation supports input-cost pricing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.14% (pullback rank 0.985) but prior active only +2.15%, weaker trend support than SOFTWARE",
"Horizon drawdown -9.53% is the deepest of the tech shock-reversal names; vol 41% and volume z +0.37",
"Quality score 0.643, below SOFTWARE and MATERIALS"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; 5-session return +0.11%, 21-session +0.21%, -0.99% from 52w high",
"Faces PPI, ECB and CPI within the window with FOMC decision after exit"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +9.45% over 5 sessions and +19.42% over 21; briefing cites refinery interruptions in Russia and Middle East and diesel at $5.85 vs $3.71 year earlier",
"Recent pullback rank 0.000 and vol 39% mean the move is fully extended; mean-reversion risk after a two-week surge is high",
"Negative SPY beta (-1.61) offers hedge value into CPI but no independent new catalyst dated in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.20% (rank 0.985) and recent +2.92%; no briefing catalyst supports further gains",
"Still -36.55% from 52w high; vol 45% and hike-probability of 58% weighs on liquidity-sensitive assets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +3.46%, recent -0.40%, quality score 0.735, SPY beta 0.05",
"Low vol 9.7% limits both upside and downside versus SPY; useful only if CPI shock hits growth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +6.31% then -2.17% recent drop on volume z 1.72, quality score 0.828 highest in universe",
"Volume-backed selloff at a 52w high may indicate distribution rather than a shakeout; low SPY beta 0.05",
"No agriculture-specific briefing catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +27.47% (rank 1.000) with 57% vol, highest in universe; -48% from 52w high",
"No briefing catalyst; rate-hike pricing at 58% is a headwind for speculative flows"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.07% on top of prior -0.86%; prior active rank only 0.209",
"Real consumption growth below 0.1%, saving rate 3.0%, payroll revisions to 31k/21k, diesel $5.85 squeeze household budgets",
"Rate-hike probability 58% pressures credit-sensitive discretionary spending"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +6.39% on volume z 1.43 but prior active -0.83% and quality score 0.160, lowest on slate",
"Trade-halt threat against surplus countries and possible Fed hike are EM headwinds; -8.41% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.44 with -0.97% recent active and -1.76% drawdown, unusual for 3% vol",
"10y at 4.78%, 30y at 5.245%, 58% hike odds and CPI in window keep duration under pressure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -6.97% (rank 0.000) and recent -3.21%: persistent downtrend, not a shock",
"Horizon drawdown -11.79% (rank 0.000) and -10.9% from 52w high with flat volume z 0.00",
"No briefing catalyst on defense budgets or geopolitics tied to the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"MATERIALS": 35,
"SOFTWARE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: core PCE 3.3% y/y, oil up 19% over 21 sessions with diesel at $5.85, 10y at 4.78%, and a 58% market-implied probability of a September hike with a hawkish dissent already on record. Weekly window contains PPI (Sep 10), ECB (Sep 10), and CPI (Sep 11) but the FOMC decision falls after the exit. Active dispersion is moderate (2.03%), breadth is weak (RSP -0.87% vs SPY over 5 sessions). Cross-section shows high-beta tech/crypto strength alongside a sharp software/cyber pullback; energy continuation is supply-driven. With rate-hike risk unresolved and CPI in-window, edges are modest and reversal candidates need a defensible pullback plus a prior trend.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"MATERIALS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "SOFTWARE is the only slate name pairing a top-percentile prior relative trend with a top-percentile recent pullback and no briefing evidence of fundamental deterioration, so it earns a modest overreaction edge. MATERIALS is a lower-volatility overreaction case near its high with supportive China PMI components. CYBERSECURITY shares the pullback but weaker prior trend, so it sits just below the eligibility threshold. Extended winners (OIL, crypto, BRAZIL) lack in-window catalysts; AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY and MUNICIPAL_BONDS show trend or macro deterioration rather than overreaction.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary: core PCE 3.3% y/y, oil up 19% over 21 sessions with diesel at $5.85, 10y at 4.78%, and a 58% market-implied probability of a September hike with a hawkish dissent already on record. Weekly window contains PPI (Sep 10), ECB (Sep 10), and CPI (Sep 11) but the FOMC decision falls after the exit. Active dispersion is moderate (2.03%), breadth is weak (RSP -0.87% vs SPY over 5 sessions). Cross-section shows high-beta tech/crypto strength alongside a sharp software/cyber pullback; energy continuation is supply-driven. With rate-hike risk unresolved and CPI in-window, edges are modest and reversal candidates need a defensible pullback plus a prior trend.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27766,
"latency_seconds": 51.00553489103913,
"output_tokens": 4078,
"total_tokens": 31844
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only three candidates combine a genuine prior relative uptrend with a fresh relative pullback that is not explained by supplied fundamental deterioration: SOFTWARE, MATERIALS and AGRICULTURE. Each has top-decile quality evidence and no briefing fact pointing to structural damage. Momentum-driven names (OIL, BRAZIL, crypto) already carry large realized moves without in-window catalysts, so I treat them as supported continuation with no repeatable one-week edge. Aerospace and consumer discretionary show trend plus fundamental weakness and are ranked below the benchmark.
Macro backdrop is stagflationary at the margin: PCE 3.7% y/y headline, euro-area inflation re-accelerating to 3.3%, diesel sharply higher, and FedWatch pricing 58% odds of a September hike. Cross-sectional dispersion (2.03% 5-session active) is normal; positive asset share near 54% shows no clean regime. CPI and PPI land inside the scoring week, and the FOMC decision falls just after the exit, so rate-sensitive and high-beta names carry event risk without event resolution. I see mostly mixed signals: a few quality pullbacks (SOFTWARE, MATERIALS, AGRICULTURE) look like temporary relative overreactions with strong prior trends, while oil and Brazil strength looks like supported commodity continuation rather than a repeatable one-week edge.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"cost_usd": 0.226215,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI on September 11 and PPI on September 10 could reprice rate-hike odds and hit high-beta software hardest",
"Hike probability at 58% before the September 16 FOMC creates a hawkish drift risk for all equity exposures inside the window",
"SOFTWARE has 41% annualized volatility, so the reversal thesis can invert quickly within one week",
"Trade-halt rhetoric from September 4 could escalate and pressure materials and commodity-linked exposures",
"Agriculture's elevated volume z-score may signal distribution rather than accumulation"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-4.61% recent active after +10.04% prior 16-session active",
"Top quality evidence score 0.761 with highest recent-pullback rank",
"41.2% vol and -11.2% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.50% recent active vs +1.83% prior active",
"Quality score 0.728 with only -2.98% drawdown and 15.1% vol",
"Volume z +0.68 with price only -2.29% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.828 in universe",
"-2.17% recent return after +6.31% prior active",
"Volume z +1.72 with lowest-in-class 11.65% vol and near-zero SPY beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.40% recent active after +3.46% prior active",
"Quality score 0.735, drawdown only -1.16%",
"Near-zero SPY correlation of 0.055"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.14% recent active with 40.9% vol",
"-9.53% 21-session drawdown, weakest shallow-drawdown rank 0.030",
"Prior active only +2.15%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+9.45% 5-session and +19.42% 21-session USO return",
"Briefing notes Russia and Middle East refinery interruptions",
"39.2% vol, negative SPY beta -1.61"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+20.20% prior active, +2.92% recent active",
"45.1% vol, -36.55% from 52w high",
"No specific in-window catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +2.44 with -0.97% recent active",
"3.02% vol, low duration risk",
"Hike odds 58% for September pressure duration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.07% recent active and -0.86% prior active",
"Real consumption growth below 0.1% in July, 3.0% saving rate",
"Diesel at $5.85/gal vs $3.71 year earlier"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"57.4% horizon volatility, highest in slate",
"-48.25% from 52w high",
"+27.47% prior active already realized"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.39% recent active but -0.83% prior active",
"Volume z +1.43 suggests crowded move",
"Lowest quality score in slate at 0.160"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 8.20% vol and -0.99% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-6.97% prior active and -3.21% recent active",
"Worst prior-active rank 0.000 and deepest drawdown -11.79%",
"No defense-budget catalyst in the briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AGRICULTURE": 30,
"MATERIALS": 35,
"SOFTWARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary at the margin: PCE 3.7% y/y headline, euro-area inflation re-accelerating to 3.3%, diesel sharply higher, and FedWatch pricing 58% odds of a September hike. Cross-sectional dispersion (2.03% 5-session active) is normal; positive asset share near 54% shows no clean regime. CPI and PPI land inside the scoring week, and the FOMC decision falls just after the exit, so rate-sensitive and high-beta names carry event risk without event resolution. I see mostly mixed signals: a few quality pullbacks (SOFTWARE, MATERIALS, AGRICULTURE) look like temporary relative overreactions with strong prior trends, while oil and Brazil strength looks like supported commodity continuation rather than a repeatable one-week edge.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only three candidates combine a genuine prior relative uptrend with a fresh relative pullback that is not explained by supplied fundamental deterioration: SOFTWARE, MATERIALS and AGRICULTURE. Each has top-decile quality evidence and no briefing fact pointing to structural damage. Momentum-driven names (OIL, BRAZIL, crypto) already carry large realized moves without in-window catalysts, so I treat them as supported continuation with no repeatable one-week edge. Aerospace and consumer discretionary show trend plus fundamental weakness and are ranked below the benchmark.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is stagflationary at the margin: PCE 3.7% y/y headline, euro-area inflation re-accelerating to 3.3%, diesel sharply higher, and FedWatch pricing 58% odds of a September hike. Cross-sectional dispersion (2.03% 5-session active) is normal; positive asset share near 54% shows no clean regime. CPI and PPI land inside the scoring week, and the FOMC decision falls just after the exit, so rate-sensitive and high-beta names carry event risk without event resolution. I see mostly mixed signals: a few quality pullbacks (SOFTWARE, MATERIALS, AGRICULTURE) look like temporary relative overreactions with strong prior trends, while oil and Brazil strength looks like supported commodity continuation rather than a repeatable one-week edge.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.226215,
"input_tokens": 27758,
"latency_seconds": 39.65941739198752,
"output_tokens": 3497,
"total_tokens": 31255
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, offering strong reversal potential against the benchmark.
The market is experiencing a slight pullback with mixed economic data, presenting opportunities in high-quality assets that have recently underperformed.
{
"confidence": 0.61,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued weakness in the software sector could lead to further underperformance.",
"Agricultural commodities may face unexpected supply shocks or demand shifts."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Software has a high quality evidence score of 0.761.",
"Recent active return was -4.61% despite a strong prior active return of 10.04%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Agriculture has the highest quality evidence score of 0.828.",
"Recent return was -2.17% with a prior active return of 6.31%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities have a quality score of 0.735.",
"Recent active return was -0.40% following a prior active return of 3.46%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity has a quality score of 0.643.",
"Recent active return was -4.14%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Municipal bonds have a volume z-score of 2.44.",
"Quality score is 0.619."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the benchmark with a recent return of 1.10%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Bitcoin ETF had a recent return of 3.36%.",
"Prior active return was 20.20%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Ethereum ETF had a recent return of 1.59%.",
"Prior active return was 27.47%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brazil equities had a recent return of 3.53%.",
"Quality score is low at 0.160."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Crude oil had a recent active return of 9.34%.",
"Prior active return was 9.01%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Materials sector had a recent return of 0.71%.",
"Quality score is 0.728."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Consumer Discretionary had a recent return of 0.28%.",
"Quality score is 0.464."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Aerospace and Defense had a recent return of 0.07%.",
"Prior active return was -6.97%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": -0.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 20,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AGRICULTURE": 35,
"DIVIDEND": 30,
"SOFTWARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 25,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 20,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "reversal",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a slight pullback with mixed economic data, presenting opportunities in high-quality assets that have recently underperformed.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 65% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, offering strong reversal potential against the benchmark.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a slight pullback with mixed economic data, presenting opportunities in high-quality assets that have recently underperformed.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18899,
"latency_seconds": 24.937118500005454,
"output_tokens": 2795,
"reasoning_tokens": 764,
"total_tokens": 22458
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil has the strongest independently supported return thesis, but its continuation classification makes it ineligible under the fixed rule. Agriculture is the sole reversal candidate meeting the eligibility threshold, with only a modest edge. Software and materials pass a tentative overreaction test but not the probability threshold; retaining benchmark exposure in unused slots appropriately reflects that uncertainty.
Five-session active dispersion of 2.03% and oil's sharp divergence from equities indicate substantial cross-sectional risk. Energy disruptions support oil independently of momentum, while elevated inflation and hike expectations limit confidence in growth-stock reversals. Producer and consumer prices fall inside the scoring window; the Fed decision does not. Reversal evidence is strongest where prior relative strength survives a shallow pullback, but the supplied quality scores are technical composites, not evidence of business fundamentals.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"cost_usd": 0.30922,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 10 producer prices and September 11 consumer prices could sharply reprice rates and reverse cross-asset leadership.",
"Refinery restoration or weaker crude demand could unwind oil's already substantial advance.",
"Agriculture's elevated volume could reflect informed selling; crop, weather, and inventory evidence is absent.",
"Trade threats could become concrete during the window, changing commodity demand and equity risk premiums.",
"Moves before the September 8 entry close are not captured, and the September 16 Fed decision occurs after exit."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Refinery interruptions in Russia and the Middle East accompany nationwide diesel prices of $5.85.",
"Five-session oil return is 9.45%; strong existing gains create substantial reversal risk.",
"Refinery disruptions support product prices more directly than crude demand, limiting confidence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -1.27% follows prior active strength of 6.31%, with only a 2.17% drawdown.",
"Volume z-score of 1.72 and quality score of 0.828 support a modest technical dislocation hypothesis.",
"SPY correlation is 0.05; no crop-specific adverse fundamental development is supplied, though absence is not proof of stability."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 4.61% follows prior active strength of 10.04%.",
"Volume z-score is -0.61, providing little confirmation of unusually heavy selling.",
"Volatility of 41.24% and 58% market-implied hike probability make the reversal fragile before CPI."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength is 3.46%, with volatility of 9.73% and drawdown of 1.16%.",
"Recent active loss of 0.40% is too small to establish a compelling overshoot.",
"Weak real consumption and inflation uncertainty provide a modest defensive rationale."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 1.50% follows prior active gain of 1.83%; quality score is 0.728.",
"China's production and new-order PMI components exceed 50, offering limited demand support.",
"Trade threats and higher energy costs offset that support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 4.14% exceeds the preceding 2.15% active gain.",
"Drawdown of 9.53% and volatility of 40.93% weaken the quality-pullback case.",
"No sector-specific near-term catalyst is supplied to offset rate sensitivity."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark and therefore has exactly zero excess return.",
"Equal-weight equities lagged SPY by 0.87 percentage point over five sessions, suggesting uneven participation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is 2.44, but both recent and prior active returns are negative.",
"Volatility is only 3.02%, supporting defensive rather than high-return appeal.",
"Inflation releases and hike expectations provide a plausible rate-based explanation for weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 20.20% and recent active gain of 2.92% are not accompanied by supplied crypto-specific catalysts.",
"Volatility is 45.12%; inflation and rate repricing can dominate one-week outcomes."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is 27.47%, but no network, flow, or regulatory catalyst is supplied.",
"Volatility of 57.39% is the highest in the slate; recent strength alone does not establish continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gain of 6.39% contrasts with prior active loss of 0.83%.",
"Volume z-score of 1.43 confirms unusual activity but not its fundamental durability.",
"Quality score is 0.160 and no Brazil-specific in-window catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 3.21% extends prior active loss of 6.97%, unlike a strong-trend pullback.",
"Drawdown is 11.79% and quality score is 0.338.",
"No budget or aircraft-demand catalyst is supplied; price weakness alone cannot establish fundamental deterioration or overreaction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"July real consumption growth was below 0.1%, with a 3.0% saving rate.",
"High diesel prices and elevated interest rates present household purchasing-power headwinds.",
"Recent active loss of 2.07% extends prior underperformance rather than interrupting a strong trend."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AGRICULTURE": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"AGRICULTURE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active dispersion of 2.03% and oil's sharp divergence from equities indicate substantial cross-sectional risk. Energy disruptions support oil independently of momentum, while elevated inflation and hike expectations limit confidence in growth-stock reversals. Producer and consumer prices fall inside the scoring window; the Fed decision does not. Reversal evidence is strongest where prior relative strength survives a shallow pullback, but the supplied quality scores are technical composites, not evidence of business fundamentals.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SOFTWARE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil has the strongest independently supported return thesis, but its continuation classification makes it ineligible under the fixed rule. Agriculture is the sole reversal candidate meeting the eligibility threshold, with only a modest edge. Software and materials pass a tentative overreaction test but not the probability threshold; retaining benchmark exposure in unused slots appropriately reflects that uncertainty.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active dispersion of 2.03% and oil's sharp divergence from equities indicate substantial cross-sectional risk. Energy disruptions support oil independently of momentum, while elevated inflation and hike expectations limit confidence in growth-stock reversals. Producer and consumer prices fall inside the scoring window; the Fed decision does not. Reversal evidence is strongest where prior relative strength survives a shallow pullback, but the supplied quality scores are technical composites, not evidence of business fundamentals.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.30922,
"input_tokens": 15747,
"latency_seconds": 41.30335002799984,
"output_tokens": 3035,
"reasoning_tokens": 185,
"total_tokens": 18782
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks assigned to high-quality pullbacks with reversal potential meeting overreaction and 55%+ beat criteria.
Mixed signals with commodity and value pullbacks showing reversal potential amid stable labor data and scheduled inflation releases.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI and PPI releases on September 10-11",
"ECB monetary policy decision",
"Trade policy statements"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.828",
"volume z 1.72"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.735",
"prior active rank 0.761"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.728",
"recent pullback rank 0.940"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 2.44",
"low horizon vol 3.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY corr 1.00",
"horizon vol 8.20%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 20.20%",
"recent return 3.36%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 9.01%",
"recent active 9.34%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return 3.53%",
"volume z 1.43"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 27.47%",
"recent return 1.59%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent pullback rank 0.955",
"quality score 0.464"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.338",
"max drawdown 11.79%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -4.14%",
"quality score 0.643"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -4.61%",
"quality score 0.761"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AGRICULTURE": 35,
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"MATERIALS": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals with commodity and value pullbacks showing reversal potential amid stable labor data and scheduled inflation releases.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MATERIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks assigned to high-quality pullbacks with reversal potential meeting overreaction and 55%+ beat criteria.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals with commodity and value pullbacks showing reversal potential amid stable labor data and scheduled inflation releases.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15967,
"latency_seconds": 27.307009272975847,
"output_tokens": 1797,
"reasoning_tokens": 968,
"total_tokens": 18732
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Top ranks favor high-quality shock pullbacks in SOFTWARE and CYBERSECURITY plus AGRICULTURE quality/volume setup as overreactions with p_beat >=55; other slate names lack sufficient edge or fail eligibility. Prefer SPY diagnostically given mixed macro and normal dispersion, but rule may still allocate eligible reversals.
Modest SPY strength with low cross-sectional dispersion; mixed labor/inflation data and rate-hike odds favor selective quality pullbacks over pure continuation or deep losers with fundamental drag. High-vol tech pullbacks and commodity strength compete with defensive quality.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September CPI/PPI and ECB decision inside window could reprice rates and growth equities",
"58% implied odds of Fed hike and elevated yields pressure duration and high-beta tech",
"Oil/geopolitical supply shocks and trade-threat rhetoric raise commodity and EM volatility",
"High horizon vol in software/cyber/crypto can reverse any bounce before Sept 15 close"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior active +10.04% then sharp -4.61% active pullback",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.761 among slate with deep recent pullback rank 1.000",
"Horizon vol elevated at 41% but quality pullback lane support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.14% after positive prior, quality score 0.643",
"Shock_reversal lane with deep pullback rank 0.985",
"Vol high ~41% but no fundamental deterioration flagged in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Top quality evidence score 0.828 with strong prior and pullback ranks",
"Volume z 1.72 dislocation and recent -2.17% at 52w high distance",
"Low corr/beta to SPY supports independent move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.728 with high recent pullback rank 0.940",
"Mild recent active -1.50% after positive prior",
"Lower vol 15% than tech peers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.735 and shallow drawdown",
"Near-flat recent return with low vol 9.73%",
"Very low SPY corr/beta limits excess potential"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.07% with pullback rank 0.955",
"Quality 0.464 moderate; employment data mixed but not collapse",
"Beta 1.14 offers upside if risk appetite holds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Deep prior weakness and recent active -3.21% with pullback rank 0.970",
"Quality score low 0.338 and max DD -11.79%",
"Shock_reversal lane but weaker fundamentals score"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong prior active +20.20% and recent +2.92% active",
"Medium_strength lane; still -36% from 52w high",
"High vol 45% and low SPY corr"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +27.47% extreme with recent mild positive",
"Highest prior active rank 1.000 but vol 57%",
"Far from highs -48%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong active +9.34% recent and +9.01% prior; USO 5s/21s strong",
"Refinery interruptions noted in briefing",
"Negative SPY corr; high vol 39%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +6.39% with volume z 1.43",
"Low quality score 0.160 and weak prior",
"EM risk and trade rhetoric overhang"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.44 dislocation but recent mild negative",
"Low vol 3% and quality 0.619",
"Rate path uncertainty with Fed hike odds 58%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with +1.10% recent and low vol 8.2%",
"Near 52w high -0.99%",
"Dispersion normal; used as reference"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AGRICULTURE": 30,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"SOFTWARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AGRICULTURE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Modest SPY strength with low cross-sectional dispersion; mixed labor/inflation data and rate-hike odds favor selective quality pullbacks over pure continuation or deep losers with fundamental drag. High-vol tech pullbacks and commodity strength compete with defensive quality.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AGRICULTURE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor high-quality shock pullbacks in SOFTWARE and CYBERSECURITY plus AGRICULTURE quality/volume setup as overreactions with p_beat >=55; other slate names lack sufficient edge or fail eligibility. Prefer SPY diagnostically given mixed macro and normal dispersion, but rule may still allocate eligible reversals.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Modest SPY strength with low cross-sectional dispersion; mixed labor/inflation data and rate-hike odds favor selective quality pullbacks over pure continuation or deep losers with fundamental drag. High-vol tech pullbacks and commodity strength compete with defensive quality.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16992,
"latency_seconds": 37.76698679092806,
"output_tokens": 2723,
"reasoning_tokens": 15,
"total_tokens": 19730
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Highest-conviction one-week edges are mean-reversion in high-quality software and cyber after large relative shocks; materials is a milder quality pullback. CPI/PPI and a still-hawkish rate path keep most continuations (oil, crypto, Brazil) from a clean SPY-beat case, so the diagnostic preference is SPY unless the overreaction labels clear the eligibility bar.
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion while software and cyber show large relative pullbacks after strong prior active returns; CPI/PPI land inside the week and a 58% hike probability plus hawkish Fed dissent raise rate-sensitive risk, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI and PPI on Sept 10-11 can reprice the 58% hike odds and hit high-beta software/cyber.",
"Software and cyber horizon vol near 41% can dominate a one-week excess even if the pullback was overdone.",
"Oil continuation can reverse if diesel/refinery headlines fade while SPY holds near highs.",
"Trade-threat rhetoric and euro-area energy inflation can widen EM and cyclical dispersion versus SPY."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +10.04% versus recent active -4.61% and quality evidence score 0.761.",
"Horizon vol 41.24% and 52w-high distance -11.21% after a modest -1.52% 3-session print.",
"Quality table ranks recent pullback at 1.000 with prior-active rank 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -4.14% after prior active +2.15% with quality score 0.643.",
"Recent pullback rank 0.985 versus low-vol rank 0.060 and max drawdown -9.53%.",
"Weekly return -1.67% with SPY beta 1.30 into a CPI week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -1.50% with quality evidence 0.728 and recent pullback rank 0.940.",
"Horizon vol 15.13% and 52w-high distance only -2.29%.",
"SPY corr 0.38 and beta 0.57, so a bounce is less leveraged than software."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.07% with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"July real consumption growth below 0.1% and PCE still 3.7% y/y.",
"Beta 1.14 and 52w-high distance -7.35%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.828 with volume z 1.72.",
"Weekly return -2.17% sitting on the 52-week high distance of -2.17%.",
"SPY corr 0.05 and beta 0.05, so excess vs SPY is mostly SPY-path dependent."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.735 with prior active +3.46% and recent active only -0.40%.",
"Horizon vol 9.73% and max drawdown -1.16%.",
"Near-zero SPY beta 0.05 limits one-week excess if SPY holds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return 0.11% and 21-session 0.21% with distance to 52w high -0.99%.",
"Active-return dispersion 5s is 2.03% and positive-asset share 53.62%.",
"CPI and PPI are scheduled Sept 10-11 inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO 5s return 9.45% and 21s 19.42% with recent active +9.34%.",
"Diesel at $5.85/gal and reported refinery interruptions in Russia and the Middle East.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.40 and beta -1.61 plus recent pullback rank 0.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.20% and recent active +2.92% with quality 0.518.",
"52w-high distance -36.55% and vol 45.12%.",
"Recent pullback rank only 0.075."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +27.47% with recent active +0.71% and vol 57.39%.",
"52w-high distance -48.25% and low-vol rank 0.000.",
"Quality score 0.562 driven by prior-active rank 1.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +6.39% with volume z 1.43 but quality score only 0.160.",
"Recent pullback rank 0.015 and prior active -0.83%.",
"Trade-threat headline and EM beta into a US CPI week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -6.97% and recent active -3.21% with quality 0.338.",
"Prior-active rank 0.000 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.000 with max drawdown -11.79%.",
"Weekly return only +0.07% after a multi-window relative decline."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.44 with weekly return -0.29% and recent active -0.97%.",
"Horizon vol 3.02% versus 58% priced odds of a September hike.",
"Ten-year yield quoted 4.784% with FOMC after the weekly exit."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"MATERIALS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"BRAZIL",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"SOFTWARE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion while software and cyber show large relative pullbacks after strong prior active returns; CPI/PPI land inside the week and a 58% hike probability plus hawkish Fed dissent raise rate-sensitive risk, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"MATERIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction one-week edges are mean-reversion in high-quality software and cyber after large relative shocks; materials is a milder quality pullback. CPI/PPI and a still-hawkish rate path keep most continuations (oil, crypto, Brazil) from a clean SPY-beat case, so the diagnostic preference is SPY unless the overreaction labels clear the eligibility bar.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion while software and cyber show large relative pullbacks after strong prior active returns; CPI/PPI land inside the week and a 58% hike probability plus hawkish Fed dissent raise rate-sensitive risk, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17134,
"latency_seconds": 44.90713575400878,
"output_tokens": 2596,
"reasoning_tokens": 609,
"total_tokens": 20339
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Software (IGV)35%Materials Sector (XLB)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Software (IGV)35%Materials Sector (XLB)35%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Software (IGV)35%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Agriculture Commodities (DBA)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Agriculture Commodities (DBA)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%Materials Sector (XLB)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Software (IGV)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Software (IGV)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | befe1aa32232...7348ca10 |
| manifest.yaml | d508c24e2cc9...785e5861 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 23250589a776...3c1ec257 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 4c56af0f82cb...0792acd7 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 4fb2fcdeb80a...ef24602b |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | bbd67102e68d...32924e48 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 744b1b7a1916...22c6c13c |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | afbc88ae1498...5326692d |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |