Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 66.4 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +19.69%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
8 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-27 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
8 artifacts published.
official-v2-20260720
31,923 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Energy Sector (XLE)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-20
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-21T00:10:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-21T09:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-20
- Exit date: 2026-07-27
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, July 20, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, July 27, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Weekly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 21, 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Scoring window: July 20 through July 27, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% for the month. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% energy decrease, while services increased 0.2%. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June import prices increased 0.3% for the month and 7.1% over 12 months. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.2% over 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.6% for the month.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Federal Reserve reported that June industrial production increased 0.1% and second-quarter production increased at a 4.0% annual rate. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 4.1% over 12 months and core PCE prices increased 3.4%.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 20, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.86% at three months, 4.21% at two years, 4.60% at ten years, and 5.11% at 30 years. Treasury curve rates are interpolated from indicative bid-side prices.
## Market, International, And Energy Data
- On July 20, the S&P 500 closed at 7,443.28, down 0.2%; the Dow closed at 51,839.26, down 0.6%; and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,508.07, down less than 0.1%. Associated Press reported that a majority of U.S. stocks fell. Nvidia rose 0.2%, Sandisk rose 2.7%, and AMD rose 1.6%.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3% year over year. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year and the official manufacturing PMI was 50.3. GDP figures were preliminary.
- Brent crude settled at $89.22 per barrel on July 20, up 1.3%. S&P Global counted 127 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the week through July 19, nearly 50% fewer than in the prior week. EIA separately forecast a $74 third-quarter Brent average in its July outlook; forecast values can change.
- On July 20, South Korea's Kospi fell 4.5%, while Hong Kong rose 2.4% and Shanghai rose 0.9%.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 21: BEA direct-investment data and scheduled BLS state labor-market and usual-weekly-earnings releases.
- July 22: Alphabet earnings and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- July 27: the weekly exit snapshot uses adjusted closes after regular trading ends.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts, forecasts, and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench Portfolio V2.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-20-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-20'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-21T09:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, July 20, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, July 27, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-20'
exit_date: '2026-07-27'
created_at: '2026-07-21T00:09:22.736003+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.0 weekly round on Universe v2.1. Research assembled after the July 20 close through direct public-source browser review; participant model tools and search are disabled.# CapitalBench Weekly Factual Briefing
Research cutoff: July 21, 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Scoring window: July 20 through July 27, 2026 adjusted close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## United States Data
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and increased 3.5% over 12 months. Energy decreased 5.7% for the month. CPI excluding food and energy was unchanged for the month and increased 2.6% over 12 months.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June final-demand producer prices decreased 0.3% for the month and increased 5.5% over 12 months. Goods decreased 1.4%, including a 6.4% energy decrease, while services increased 0.2%. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June import prices increased 0.3% for the month and 7.1% over 12 months. Nonfuel import prices increased 0.4% for the month and 4.2% over 12 months. Export prices decreased 0.6% for the month.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that June nonfarm payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and April and May payroll changes were revised down by a combined 74,000. Average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.5% over 12 months.
- The Census Bureau reported June retail and food-services sales of $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May and 6.7% from June 2025. The monthly estimate had a plus-or-minus 0.4 percentage-point interval at 90% confidence.
- The Federal Reserve reported that June industrial production increased 0.1% and second-quarter production increased at a 4.0% annual rate. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June values are preliminary.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported first-quarter real GDP growth of 2.1% at an annual rate and real final sales to private domestic purchasers growth of 1.7%. In May, real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.3%; PCE prices increased 4.1% over 12 months and core PCE prices increased 3.4%.
## Policy And Rates
- On June 17, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.5% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. Its 2026 participant medians were 2.2% real GDP growth, 4.3% unemployment, 3.6% PCE inflation, 3.3% core PCE inflation, and a 3.8% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant forecasts, not a Committee plan.
- On July 20, Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.86% at three months, 4.21% at two years, 4.60% at ten years, and 5.11% at 30 years. Treasury curve rates are interpolated from indicative bid-side prices.
## Market, International, And Energy Data
- On July 20, the S&P 500 closed at 7,443.28, down 0.2%; the Dow closed at 51,839.26, down 0.6%; and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,508.07, down less than 0.1%. Associated Press reported that a majority of U.S. stocks fell. Nvidia rose 0.2%, Sandisk rose 2.7%, and AMD rose 1.6%.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3% year over year. June industrial value added increased 5.3% year over year and the official manufacturing PMI was 50.3. GDP figures were preliminary.
- Brent crude settled at $89.22 per barrel on July 20, up 1.3%. S&P Global counted 127 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the week through July 19, nearly 50% fewer than in the prior week. EIA separately forecast a $74 third-quarter Brent average in its July outlook; forecast values can change.
- On July 20, South Korea's Kospi fell 4.5%, while Hong Kong rose 2.4% and Shanghai rose 0.9%.
## Scheduled Before The Exit Close
- July 21: BEA direct-investment data and scheduled BLS state labor-market and usual-weekly-earnings releases.
- July 22: Alphabet earnings and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- July 27: the weekly exit snapshot uses adjusted closes after regular trading ends.
Neutrality statement: These fixed facts, forecasts, and scheduled releases are supplied without ranking, recommendation, commentary, or option mapping. Their inclusion and order do not indicate expected returns.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "49395925b8fb2c9a137891b7d0ac1c277f6d801d434a303e1a1e6629c6fe7a67",
"manifest.yaml": "af7e585509fffa22b07eadbd4adaa299a6ff40fb452b40248be5c26ef771576d",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "af2cd120fe182544195c323dee42b35a86030b014a4c58243b9678e98700ebaa",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "4fc4e5960f22aa7149850e52dffcebcb1db6e3b57241130352bdd27db2fc41ab",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "6ad09c03f204f36cc2adbf4b3132222b71a776e2625969aaa92d455b69c63907",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "dbe12a09b8d6f4f175e74105191183d12f7e4d5949c4b27f119767a734080c67",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "56aa11e0208b796cee9a8e71d7b8779c5c87c37c286a14d00a17ab57e5215ccd"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-20-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Energy supply shock (Hormuz transits halved, Brent $89) plus a defensive rotation amid weak payrolls and soft breadth favors energy and low-beta dividend/staples exposure over cap-weighted SPY, which is tech-heavy into an uncertain Alphabet print.
Overweight energy on geopolitical supply risk and tilt remaining equity exposure to defensive dividend/staples factors that are outperforming in the current risk-off tape.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling CPI (-0.4% m/m) supports eventual easing and equity stabilization",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY -0.95% over 5 sessions, majority of stocks fell July 20",
"June payrolls +57k with -74k revisions; unemployment 4.2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad rally with breadth improvement above recent highs",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak breadth and soft labor data extend the pullback; oil spike pressures margins",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained supply-risk premium lifts energy earnings expectations",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $89.22, up 1.3% on July 20",
"Hormuz transits down ~50% week over week",
"XLE +2.55% 3-session, +3.06% 5s active return"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below ~$82 or normalized shipping traffic",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation and EIA's $74 Q3 Brent forecast reasserting",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22; Hormuz developments"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Halved strait transits keep supply-risk premium bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO +6.55% over 5 sessions on Hormuz disruption",
"Brent settled $89.22 up 1.3% July 20"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hormuz transit volumes recover to prior-week levels",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Quick geopolitical resolution; EIA forecasts $74 Q3 Brent average",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA inventory report; Hormuz shipping data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive flows persist amid soft labor data and weak breadth",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP +1.67% 3-session with negative SPY beta (-0.38)",
"Majority of US stocks fell July 20; weak payrolls print"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rallies >2% on renewed growth leadership",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Tech-led risk-on rally rotates money out of defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation through the week; Alphabet earnings as risk pivot"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low-beta quality dividend names keep outperforming in choppy tape",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD +1.27% 3-session, +1.53% 5s active return, near-zero SPY beta (0.09)",
"Value/defensive factors outperforming: IWD and SPLV positive active returns"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth factors lead by >2% early in the week",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound post-Alphabet earnings reverses factor rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued value rotation into July 27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Alphabet beat could spark oversold bounce",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLK -3.23% 3-session, -8.62% 21s drawdown, beta 2.14",
"Nasdaq underperforming; semis -5.41% 3-session"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong Alphabet results reversing the tech drawdown",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High-beta tech continues correcting; momentum breakdown (MTUM -12% drawdown)",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving China data and local market strength continue",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Hong Kong +2.4%, Shanghai +0.9% on July 20; MCHI +3.90% 5s active",
"H1 GDP +4.7% y/y, June PMI 50.3"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hang Seng reversal or renewed policy disappointment",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Q2 growth slowed to 4.3%; recent bounce may fade; high volatility",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond ongoing data flow"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Disinflation and soft labor market pull yields lower",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"June CPI -0.4% m/m; core flat; payrolls weak at +57k",
"10y at 4.60%, 30y 5.11%; TLT -2.47% over 21 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield rising above 4.75%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Oil spike reigniting inflation fears keeps long-end pressured",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before exit"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"cost_usd": 0.40432999999999997,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.05,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid Hormuz de-escalation could crater oil and energy equities",
"Strong Alphabet earnings could spark a tech rally that SPY captures and this portfolio misses",
"EIA forecast of $74 Q3 Brent suggests supply-risk premium may deflate quickly",
"USO futures-curve structure can erode spot-price gains"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below ~$82 or Hormuz transit normalizes",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Hormuz transit disruption (127 vessels, ~50% fewer) and Brent at $89.22 with positive sector momentum support energy equities over the week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22; ongoing Hormuz supply risk"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "De-escalation restoring Hormuz shipping volumes; Brent below $84",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure to the supply shock; Brent up 1.3% on July 20 amid halved Hormuz transits.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA inventory data July 22 and Strait of Hormuz developments"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally led by tech reversing defensive flows",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive sector outperforming in risk-off tape (+1.67% 3-session, negative SPY beta) with weak payrolls and majority of stocks declining.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued defensive rotation into July 27 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong tech-led rally after Alphabet earnings pulling flows from value",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Low-beta dividend equities showing positive absolute and active returns; insulated from tech drawdown risk around Alphabet earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Value/defensive rotation persists through the week"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.25,
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy supply shock (Hormuz transits halved, Brent $89) plus a defensive rotation amid weak payrolls and soft breadth favors energy and low-beta dividend/staples exposure over cap-weighted SPY, which is tech-heavy into an uncertain Alphabet print.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy on geopolitical supply risk and tilt remaining equity exposure to defensive dividend/staples factors that are outperforming in the current risk-off tape.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.40432999999999997,
"input_tokens": 23753,
"latency_seconds": 46.61400429089554,
"output_tokens": 3336,
"total_tokens": 27089
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Blend SPY core with energy (Hormuz disruption, oil momentum), rate-sensitive real estate, and defensive dividend equities that have shown positive active returns amid the recent tech-led pullback.
Modest tilt away from tech-heavy indexes given semis/AI weakness; overweight energy on supply catalyst and defensives showing positive active returns.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Mild pullback in uptrend, earnings catalyst supportive",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY -0.2% on July 20, -0.95% 5s",
"21s return +0.41%",
"Alphabet earnings July 22"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below -3% intraweek",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Tech weakness deepens, credit spreads widen",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply disruption sustains oil bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $89.22 +1.3%",
"Hormuz transits ~50% lower",
"XLE 5s active return +3.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $82",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Hormuz normalizes, EIA shows builds",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA petroleum status July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive defensives bid amid growth wobble",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLRE 5s active return +2.13%",
"Low drawdown -2.67%",
"Distance to 52w high only -0.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield above 4.75%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Long yields jump on inflation surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury auctions, yield stability"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD 3s return +1.27%",
"5s active +1.53%",
"Low beta 0.088"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD active return turns sharply negative",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on snap-back to growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued factor rotation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Alphabet beat sparks tech rebound",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ 3s -3.02%",
"5s active -1.26%",
"Drawdown -6.01%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ fails to reclaim recent support",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Semi weakness deepens",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce possible",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH 3s -5.41%",
"Drawdown -16.8%",
"Vol 56%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH breaks below recent lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Downtrend continues, Korea Kospi -4.5%",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chip earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Flight to quality if equities crack",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT 21s -2.47%",
"5s +0.85%",
"30y at 5.11%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "30y above 5.25%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Inflation stays sticky, curve steepens",
"time_window_catalyst": "Yield stability"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid on Hormuz risk",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 21s -5.39%",
"Distance 52w high -25.8%",
"5s +1.08%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks recent lows",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Real yields rise, USD strength",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.345,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil reverses if Hormuz transit normalizes",
"Tech rebound on Alphabet earnings lifts SPY faster than defensives",
"Long-end yields spike hurting REITs"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below recent support with credit widening",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure after mild pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $82",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up on Hormuz disruption; XLE strong recent active return.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA petroleum status July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield spikes above 4.75%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Rate-sensitive defensive with positive momentum and low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "10y yield stability"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rotation back to growth",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive dividend tilt with strong recent active return and low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued value/defensive rotation"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.745,
"portfolio_rationale": "Blend SPY core with energy (Hormuz disruption, oil momentum), rate-sensitive real estate, and defensive dividend equities that have shown positive active returns amid the recent tech-led pullback.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Modest tilt away from tech-heavy indexes given semis/AI weakness; overweight energy on supply catalyst and defensives showing positive active returns.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23764,
"latency_seconds": 37.20455102599226,
"output_tokens": 2352,
"total_tokens": 26116
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Blend SPY anchor with energy strength from rising Brent and Hormuz disruption, plus defensive real estate and financials showing positive relative momentum with low beta.
Tilt toward energy on oil catalysts while holding diversified core and low-beta defensives that recently outperformed.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Benign inflation supports large-cap stability",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7443.28 down 0.2%",
"Core CPI unchanged monthly, 2.6% yearly"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY drops more than 2%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls (57k) signal slowing growth",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply disruption and oil momentum sustain energy equities",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $89.22 up 1.3%",
"Hormuz transits down nearly 50%",
"Energy active return +3.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $84",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA forecasts $74 Q3 Brent implying downside",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA report July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cooling headline CPI supports rate-sensitive defensives",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +2.13%",
"Low beta 0.11, near 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year above 4.80%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Long yields at 4.60% pressure rate-sensitives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury yield trend"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and resilient credit help banks",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +0.89%",
"Low beta 0.18, near 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank credit event",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit stress or slowdown hits financials",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings flow"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Hormuz disruption boosts crude",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO active return +7.50%",
"Brent up 1.3%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $84",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "48% volatility and contango risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA report July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid amid soft labor data",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +1.26%",
"Return 3s +1.67%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on rally",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation leaves staples behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving China data and Hong Kong strength",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +3.90%",
"H1 GDP 4.7% yoy"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "China equity selloff",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Geopolitical and policy volatility",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft payrolls support duration",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +1.21%",
"Low volatility 4.85%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise sharply",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky core inflation limits rally",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.285,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil reverses on demand concerns or EIA build",
"Broad equity selloff pressures all holdings"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $84 or Hormuz transit normalizes",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 1.3% to $89.22, Hormuz disruption, energy sector strong active return +3.06% with recent momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY drops more than 2% intraweek on macro shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad US equity anchor; benign core inflation supports stable large-cap backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.80%",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Strong recent active return +2.13%, low beta, cooling headline inflation supportive for rate-sensitive defensives.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury yield stability into exit close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Regional bank credit stress emerges",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive active return, low beta, resilient bank sentiment with steep curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings flow through week"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.685,
"portfolio_rationale": "Blend SPY anchor with energy strength from rising Brent and Hormuz disruption, plus defensive real estate and financials showing positive relative momentum with low beta.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt toward energy on oil catalysts while holding diversified core and low-beta defensives that recently outperformed.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23759,
"latency_seconds": 33.481995780952275,
"output_tokens": 2272,
"total_tokens": 26031
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is tilted towards energy and value, capitalizing on recent momentum in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and a potential market rotation. Gold is included as a geopolitical hedge.
Overweight energy and small value based on recent momentum and geopolitical factors, with gold as a hedge.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Steady economic growth and stable inflation support a gradual grind higher.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The S&P 500 closed at 7,443.28, down 0.2% on July 20.",
"First-quarter real GDP growth was 2.1%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in major tech earnings.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A sudden macroeconomic shock or earnings disappointment from major components.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East restrict supply routes.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $89.22 per barrel on July 20, up 1.3%.",
"S&P Global counted 127 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 50% fewer than the prior week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to Middle East tensions or a massive unexpected build in EIA inventories.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "A sudden resolution to tensions or a massive inventory build.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Higher oil prices translate to stronger earnings expectations for energy companies.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy sector had a 2.55% return over the last 3 days.",
"Energy sector had a 3.06% active return over the last 5 days."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in crude oil prices or broader market selloff.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A drop in underlying commodity prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Market rotation away from mega-cap tech continues to favor undervalued smaller companies.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Small value had a 1.43% active return over the last 5 days.",
"Small value had a 1.48% prior 16s active return."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A flight to safety or a resurgence in mega-cap tech dominance.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A flight to safety or a resurgence in mega-cap tech dominance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued market rotation during the week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical uncertainty and stable real rates support gold prices.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Gold had a 1.08% active return over the last 5 days.",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a strong US dollar rally.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a strong US dollar rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments or shifts in real yields."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive positioning supports healthcare stocks.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare had a 0.61% return over the last 3 days.",
"Healthcare had a 6.20% prior 16s active return."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong rotation into high-beta sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally favoring cyclical sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields remain stable, providing a steady, low-risk return.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short treasury had a 0.04% return over the last 3 days.",
"Treasury nominal constant-maturity yields were 3.86% at three months."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden, massive drop in short-term rates.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden, massive drop in short-term rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.83,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden de-escalation in the Middle East could cause a sharp reversal in oil prices.",
"A broader market selloff could drag down energy equities and small caps.",
"A resurgence in mega-cap tech could reverse the recent rotation into small value."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to Middle East tensions or a massive unexpected build in EIA inventories.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Oil prices are supported by a significant drop in vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and positive recent momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in crude oil prices or broader market selloff.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities benefit from the same tailwinds as crude oil, showing strong recent active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A flight to safety or a resurgence in mega-cap tech dominance.",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Small value has shown positive active returns recently, potentially benefiting from a rotation out of mega-cap tech.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued market rotation during the week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in real interest rates or a strong US dollar rally.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold provides a hedge against geopolitical risks and has shown positive recent active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments or shifts in real yields."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.03,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is tilted towards energy and value, capitalizing on recent momentum in oil prices driven by geopolitical tensions and a potential market rotation. Gold is included as a geopolitical hedge.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight energy and small value based on recent momentum and geopolitical factors, with gold as a hedge.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13486,
"latency_seconds": 22.31417179107666,
"output_tokens": 2183,
"reasoning_tokens": 892,
"total_tokens": 16561
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio emphasizes near-term commodity and energy catalysts, especially the July 22 EIA report and Strait of Hormuz disruption, while diversifying with China and defensive dividend equities. Each selected active holding has a base forecast above SPY's base forecast and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%.
SPY has a modest positive base case after a short pullback, but supplied energy-market disruption and commodity momentum create stronger one-week active opportunities. The allocation balances continuation risk with non-energy exposures to China and dividend equities.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "A short-term rebound could follow the recent pullback if softer inflation and resilient retail sales support risk appetite.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY return was -0.95% over 5 sessions and 0.41% over 21 sessions.",
"On July 20 the S&P 500 closed down 0.2%, and a majority of U.S. stocks fell.",
"June CPI fell 0.4% month over month, but payrolls rose only 57,000 with downward revisions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.35,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks materially lower with continued negative breadth or growth-stock earnings disappoint.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payroll revisions and narrow/fragile market breadth could extend the drawdown over the week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22 and general reaction to scheduled U.S. data releases before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply-risk premium and strong recent oil momentum can persist into the EIA report.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"USO returned 6.55% over 5 sessions and 9.87% over 21 sessions.",
"Brent crude settled at $89.22 per barrel on July 20, up 1.3%.",
"S&P Global counted 127 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz in the week through July 19, nearly 50% fewer than in the prior week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses sharply or EIA data show a clear inventory/supply surprise that offsets the Hormuz risk premium.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "The EIA's July outlook forecast a lower $74 third-quarter Brent average, and a de-escalation or bearish inventory data could unwind the recent spike.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and continued market reaction to Strait of Hormuz vessel-count disruption."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities can continue outperforming if oil remains firm and investors price stronger cash flows or supply risk.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY had a 3.06% 5-session active return and 3.17% prior-16-session active return versus SPY.",
"ENERGY returned 2.55% over the latest 3 sessions.",
"Brent crude rose 1.3% on July 20 amid reduced Strait of Hormuz vessel transits."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude oil gives back the recent move or energy equities fail to respond to firm oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Energy equities may lag direct oil if equity risk weakens or if crude's recent gains reverse.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price reaction to July 22 EIA report and Strait of Hormuz transit developments before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "High-volume commodity strength can continue if energy remains bid and inflation-sensitive assets attract flows.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"BROAD_COMMODITIES had a 3.79% 5-session active return and 0.81% prior-16-session active return.",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES returned 1.22% over the latest 3 sessions.",
"Volume z-score was 3.866, the highest among assessed candidates."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity prices weaken despite oil strength or recent high-volume buying reverses.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Recent gains may mean-revert if oil slips or macro data reduce inflation and commodity-risk demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity-market reaction to the EIA report and any continuation of energy-led commodity strength during the week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive China macro data and strong local-market reaction could support short-term catch-up from depressed levels.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CHINA had a 3.90% 5-session active return despite a -2.26% prior-16-session active return.",
"China reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% year over year and second-quarter growth of 4.3%.",
"Hong Kong rose 2.4% and Shanghai rose 0.9% on July 20."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "China/Hong Kong equities reverse their July 20 gains or global risk appetite deteriorates sharply.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "China remains far from its 52-week high and can reverse if global or domestic risk appetite fades.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of post-data China/Hong Kong equity reaction during the one-week window; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive and income-oriented equities can keep outperforming if market breadth stays weak and investors rotate away from high-beta growth.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND returned 1.27% over the latest 3 sessions.",
"DIVIDEND had a 1.53% 5-session active return and 1.42% prior-16-session active return.",
"DIVIDEND had low supplied 63-session correlation to SPY of 0.096 and beta of 0.088."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth resumes leadership and dividend equities underperform SPY on a broad risk-on reversal.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A broad risk-on rebound led by mega-cap technology would likely pull SPY ahead of dividend equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation if weak payroll revisions and soft inflation keep investors favoring lower-beta equity factors; no single scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable credit and low recent drawdown could support modest positive carry-like performance if risk appetite holds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT returned 0.20% over 5 sessions and 0.40% over 21 sessions in the mechanical market state.",
"Option context showed 1.15% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"Max drawdown over 21 sessions was only -0.44%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "High-yield credit posts negative active performance alongside widening risk concerns.",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"reversal_case": "Credit spreads could widen if weak payroll data drive growth concerns, limiting upside versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No specific scheduled credit catalyst identified before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Software could benefit if technology earnings sentiment improves and recent active strength resumes.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE had a 1.25% 5-session active return and 2.60% prior-16-session active return.",
"SOFTWARE returned -1.02% over the latest 3 sessions.",
"Alphabet earnings are scheduled for July 22, relevant to technology and growth sentiment."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.05,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Technology and growth factors sell off further after earnings or rates move against high-duration equities.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "The latest 3-session decline and growth-stock sensitivity could continue if earnings or rates pressure high-multiple technology.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22 as a technology sentiment catalyst."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.695,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil and energy could reverse quickly if the Hormuz risk premium fades or EIA inventories are bearish.",
"The recent commodity strength may be overextended after large 5-day gains, especially for OIL.",
"Broad US equities could rebound sharply, causing the active portfolio to lag SPY.",
"China exposure could reverse despite positive macro data if global risk appetite weakens."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses sharply or EIA data show a clear inventory/supply surprise that offsets the Hormuz risk premium.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Crude has the strongest near-window fundamental catalyst from Hormuz transit disruption and recent oil strength, while the EIA petroleum report falls inside the scoring window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report and continued market reaction to Strait of Hormuz vessel-count disruption."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude oil gives back the recent move or energy equities fail to respond to firm oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy equities provide related but less direct exposure to elevated oil prices and positive sector momentum while keeping the total energy cluster at the 50% cap.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-price reaction to July 22 EIA report and Strait of Hormuz transit developments before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad commodity prices weaken despite oil strength or recent high-volume buying reverses.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Broad commodities have positive near-term active return, high volume confirmation, and partial participation in energy and inflation-sensitive assets without exceeding the energy cap.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity-market reaction to the EIA report and any continuation of energy-led commodity strength during the week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "China/Hong Kong equities reverse their July 20 gains or global risk appetite deteriorates sharply.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "China exposure has strong recent active return and supplied macro data showing positive GDP, industrial production, and manufacturing PMI above 50, with lower direct correlation to SPY than many equity options.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of post-data China/Hong Kong equity reaction during the one-week window; no specific scheduled catalyst identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap growth resumes leadership and dividend equities underperform SPY on a broad risk-on reversal.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities have recent absolute and active strength with relatively low SPY correlation in the supplied data, offering defensive US equity participation if broad market breadth remains weak.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation if weak payroll revisions and soft inflation keep investors favoring lower-beta equity factors; no single scheduled catalyst identified."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.845,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes near-term commodity and energy catalysts, especially the July 22 EIA report and Strait of Hormuz disruption, while diversifying with China and defensive dividend equities. Each selected active holding has a base forecast above SPY's base forecast and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has a modest positive base case after a short pullback, but supplied energy-market disruption and commodity momentum create stronger one-week active opportunities. The allocation balances continuation risk with non-energy exposures to China and dividend equities.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12737,
"latency_seconds": 40.593109701992944,
"output_tokens": 2710,
"reasoning_tokens": 250,
"total_tokens": 15447
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio concentrates on two independently supported, time-specific catalysts while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Communications has a major earnings event, and energy has both geopolitical supply support and an inventory release.
Both selected exposures have base forecasts above SPY and identifiable catalysts before the exit close. Their distinct clusters reduce reliance on a single market driver.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Benign monthly CPI and resilient consumption could encourage a broad-equity rebound after recent weakness.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY returned -0.95% over five sessions and 0.41% over 21 sessions.",
"June core CPI was unchanged, but core PCE inflation was 3.4% year over year.",
"Payroll growth was 57,000 with combined downward revisions of 74,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks above its recent high with broad participation, or falls more than 2% as breadth deteriorates further.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated PCE inflation, weak breadth, and slowing payroll growth could sustain pressure on equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22 and scheduled labor-market releases on July 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive benchmark-relative performance can continue if Alphabet earnings validate platform demand and growth expectations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Alphabet earnings are scheduled for July 22.",
"COMMUNICATIONS had 0.24% five-session active return and 1.09% prior-16-session active return.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 18.27%, below several other growth exposures."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Alphabet sells off after earnings and COMMUNICATIONS underperforms SPY through the following session.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "An earnings miss, weak guidance, or renewed growth-stock selling could reverse the relative-strength signal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Constrained shipping traffic and firm crude prices can sustain energy-sector outperformance through the weekly petroleum report.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled at $89.22, up 1.3% on July 20.",
"Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic was nearly 50% lower than in the prior week.",
"ENERGY posted 3.06% five-session active return and 3.17% prior-window active return."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.85,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses below its July 20 level while the EIA report indicates a material inventory build or weaker demand.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The EIA's $74 third-quarter Brent forecast highlights downside if geopolitical supply fears fade or inventories rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22 and developments affecting Strait of Hormuz traffic."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft employment and monthly inflation data could lower yields and support investment-grade bonds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"June core CPI was unchanged for the month.",
"Payroll growth slowed to 57,000 and prior months were revised down.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.60% and AGG had 1.19% five-session active return."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above 4.60% as inflation concerns dominate.",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Elevated PCE and import-price inflation could push yields higher despite softer payrolls.",
"time_window_catalyst": "State labor-market and usual-weekly-earnings releases on July 21."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Expansionary PMI, industrial growth, and positive local-market performance could extend the rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"China reported first-half GDP growth of 4.7% and second-quarter growth of 4.3%.",
"June industrial value added increased 5.3%, and manufacturing PMI was 50.3.",
"CHINA posted 3.90% five-session active return, while Hong Kong rose 2.4% on July 20."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Chinese equities surrender the July 20 advance and CHINA resumes underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Slower second-quarter GDP growth and negative prior-window active return raise the risk that the recent move reverses.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive performance across both recent and prior windows could persist independently of broad-equity direction.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"AGRICULTURE had 2.03% five-session active return and 1.91% prior-window active return.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 15.11% and correlation with SPY was approximately zero.",
"Recent volume was below its preceding baseline."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "AGRICULTURE turns negative for the week and loses its recent benchmark-relative advantage.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "The absence of a supplied fundamental catalyst and weak volume support make the recent strength vulnerable to mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A positively sloped two-to-10-year yield curve and sustained relative strength could continue supporting bank shares.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS recorded 1.97% five-session active return and 4.83% prior-window active return.",
"The two-year and 10-year Treasury yields were 4.21% and 4.60%, respectively.",
"Payroll growth was only 57,000, with substantial downward revisions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "REGIONAL_BANKS underperforms SPY as Treasury yields flatten or labor data imply materially higher credit risk.",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"reversal_case": "Slower employment may increase credit-quality concerns and outweigh any benefit from the yield curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "State labor-market releases on July 21."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Alphabet earnings or guidance disappoint and pressure communication-services shares.",
"Oil reverses sharply if supply concerns ease or the EIA reports weak demand or rising inventories.",
"A broad risk-off move overwhelms both sector-specific catalysts.",
"The portfolio's two-sector concentration creates substantial event risk."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Alphabet sells off after earnings and COMMUNICATIONS underperforms SPY through the following session.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Alphabet earnings provide a direct one-week catalyst, while recent benchmark-relative resilience and positive prior-window active return support the continuation case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.85,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses below its July 20 level while the EIA report indicates a material inventory build or weaker demand.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Reduced Strait of Hormuz traffic and firm crude prices support energy equities, with the weekly petroleum report providing an immediate catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22 and developments affecting Strait of Hormuz traffic."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio concentrates on two independently supported, time-specific catalysts while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Communications has a major earnings event, and energy has both geopolitical supply support and an inventory release.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Both selected exposures have base forecasts above SPY and identifiable catalysts before the exit close. Their distinct clusters reduce reliance on a single market driver.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12739,
"latency_seconds": 61.38198966300115,
"output_tokens": 2612,
"reasoning_tokens": 887,
"total_tokens": 15351
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of broad equity baseline with defensive and energy tilts to capture relative strength in supplied data.
SPY base at 0.5%; selected holdings exceed this threshold with positive recent returns and scheduled releases.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stable Fed policy and modest GDP growth support gradual equity gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7443.28 on July 20 down 0.2%",
"June nonfarm payrolls +57000 with downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained equity market decline exceeding 2% from entry close",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further downside revisions to employment data trigger risk-off flows",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 Alphabet earnings and July 21-27 data releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply constraints and vessel transit data support higher prices",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $89.22 up 1.3% on July 20",
"XLE return_5s +3.06%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85 per barrel",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "EIA forecast revision to lower Brent average triggers selling",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive demand holds amid mixed macro releases",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP return_5s +1.26%",
"June retail sales up 0.2% month-over-month"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI ex-food-energy rises above 3% annualized",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Further CPI softening signals consumer weakness",
"time_window_catalyst": "June retail sales confirmation and July 21 state labor data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable rates and regional bank data support sector",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF return_5s +0.89%",
"Treasury curve 2y 4.21% 10y 4.60% on July 20"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rate rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve steepening accelerates beyond recent levels",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 20 Treasury yield curve levels and payroll revisions"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Preserves capital in uncertain macro environment",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"No yield proxy defined for cash in round"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 0,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Portfolio opportunity cost exceeds 1% versus equities",
"option_id": "CASH",
"reversal_case": "Risk assets rally on contained inflation data",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Direct crude exposure amplifies energy sector move",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO return_5s +7.50%",
"Brent crude $89.22"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85 per barrel",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Inventory build in EIA report reverses price gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rates stability provides modest positive carry",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IEF return_5s +1.21%",
"10y Treasury yield 4.60%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield rises above 4.8%",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Growth data surprises higher pushing yields up",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 21 BEA direct-investment data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.64,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Weak June payrolls and downward revisions may pressure equities",
"Energy price volatility from Strait of Hormuz traffic data",
"CPI and PPI declines could signal broader growth slowdown"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained equity market decline exceeding 2% from entry close",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad diversified US equity exposure as baseline holding.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 Alphabet earnings and July 21-27 data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below $85 per barrel",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Positive recent price action and Brent crude strength amid supply signals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 22 EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI ex-food-energy rises above 3% annualized",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with recent positive returns and stable demand data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "June retail sales confirmation and July 21 state labor data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Unemployment rate rises above 4.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance and sensitivity to stable rates environment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 20 Treasury yield curve levels and payroll revisions"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.14,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of broad equity baseline with defensive and energy tilts to capture relative strength in supplied data.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base at 0.5%; selected holdings exceed this threshold with positive recent returns and scheduled releases.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 12974,
"latency_seconds": 17.37998637999408,
"output_tokens": 1653,
"reasoning_tokens": 873,
"total_tokens": 15500
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy and commodities where supplied Hormuz disruption and price momentum provide the clearest one-week edge over SPY, capped at cluster limits, with diversifying China and dividend sleeves.
SPY base is muted after soft CPI/payrolls and negative 3s return. Active holdings clear the SPY base hurdle via oil supply facts and recent commodity/China relative strength.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft inflation and steady consumption allow modest equity stabilization",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,443.28, down 0.2%",
"June CPI decreased 0.4% monthly with core unchanged",
"June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 with prior revisions down"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below recent 21s drawdown low with rising volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Oil spike or weak earnings drive further risk-off",
"time_window_catalyst": "Alphabet earnings on July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Reduced Hormuz flows sustain supply premium into the week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $89.22, up 1.3% on July 20",
"S&P Global counted 127 vessels transiting Hormuz, nearly 50% fewer",
"USO return_3s at 3.40% and active_return_5s at 7.50%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below 85 or vessel counts normalize",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Transit recovery or bearish EIA print collapses the premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Equity energy captures persistent crude strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE return_3s 2.55% and active_return_5s 3.06%",
"Brent up 1.3% with Hormuz transit sharply lower",
"prior_16s_active_return positive at 3.17%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE active return turns negative while oil drops >3%",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil mean-reversion or broader equity selloff hits beta",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA report July 22 plus oil price path"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity complex momentum and volume support follow-through",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"PDBC return_3s 1.22% and active_return_5s 3.79%",
"volume_zscore_5v60 elevated at 3.866",
"USO and energy complex strength on July 20"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC reverses full 3s gain on rising UUP",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "Dollar rebound or demand scare hits non-energy legs",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA petroleum data and energy price continuation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive local tape and growth print sustain relative bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Hong Kong rose 2.4% and Shanghai rose 0.9% on July 20",
"MCHI active_return_5s 3.90%",
"China H1 real GDP growth 4.7% y/y, June PMI 50.3"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI underperforms SPY by >2% with HK weakness",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Global risk-off or renewed policy disappointment",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative strength persists in lower-beta dividend names",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD return_3s 1.27% and active_return_5s 1.53%",
"prior_16s_active_return 1.42%",
"soft June payrolls and cooler CPI favor defensive yield"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD active return turns negative on Nasdaq strength",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Sharp growth-stock rebound crowds out defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid continues after soft labor data",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLP return_3s 1.67% and active_return_5s 1.26%",
"June retail sales up 0.2%",
"cooler CPI energy component"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLP loses 3s gains while SPY rises",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation or margin pressure headlines",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent active outperformance extends on risk appetite",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IBIT active_return_5s 5.69%",
"return_3s only 0.22%",
"distance_52w_high -48.25%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "IBIT drops >5% on rising real yields or equity weakness",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and deep drawdown invite mean reversion",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.46,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid Hormuz de-escalation or large EIA inventory build reverses oil",
"Alphabet earnings spark broad tech-led risk-on that leaves energy behind",
"Geopolitical headline volatility spikes correlations and drawdowns",
"Cluster concentration in energy amplifies single-factor reversal"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settles below 85 or Hormuz transit normalizes sharply",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Hormuz transit drop supports near-term crude strength over the one-week window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE underperforms as oil reverses more than 5% intraday",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Equity energy levered to oil upside with recent relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report on July 22 and oil price persistence"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "PDBC gives back 3s gains on risk-off equity move",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "Broad commodity momentum and elevated volume support continuation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued energy complex strength into July 22 EIA data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI breaks below recent lows with HK/Shanghai weakness",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive China equity tape and H1 GDP print offer relative bounce potential.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond ongoing China data follow-through"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD loses relative bid if growth stocks reverse sharply higher",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive dividend equities show positive 3s/5s relative strength amid soft macro.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.66,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy and commodities where supplied Hormuz disruption and price momentum provide the clearest one-week edge over SPY, capped at cluster limits, with diversifying China and dividend sleeves.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is muted after soft CPI/payrolls and negative 3s return. Active holdings clear the SPY base hurdle via oil supply facts and recent commodity/China relative strength.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-20-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 13768,
"latency_seconds": 28.14597637602128,
"output_tokens": 2441,
"reasoning_tokens": 1632,
"total_tokens": 17841
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Crude Oil (USO)20%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)30%S&P 500 (SPY)40%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)15%Financials Sector (XLF)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Crude Oil (USO)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30%Gold (IAU)20% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Broad Commodities (PDBC)20%China Equities (MCHI)15%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Communication Services Sector (XLC)50%Energy Sector (XLE)50% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Broad Commodities (PDBC)20%China Equities (MCHI)15%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-20 | 229.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-20 | 93.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-20 | 28.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-20 | 28.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-20 | 116.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-20 | 150.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-20 | 36.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-20 | 35.48 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-20 | 59.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-20 | 17.38 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-20 | 58.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-20 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-20 | 54.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-20 | 110.80 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-20 | 114.61 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-20 | 84.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-20 | 38.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-20 | 125.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-20 | 91.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-20 | 69.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-20 | 95.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-20 | 57.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-20 | 57.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-20 | 212.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-20 | 14.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-20 | 105.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-20 | 87.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-20 | 56.04 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-20 | 75.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-20 | 159.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-20 | 79.68 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-20 | 48.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-20 | 178.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-20 | 93.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-20 | 47.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-20 | 107.15 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-20 | 90.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-20 | 56.46 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-20 | 83.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-20 | 50.03 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-20 | 97.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-20 | 75.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-20 | 106.40 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-20 | 696.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-20 | 45.23 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-20 | 75.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-20 | 742.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-20 | 558.83 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-20 | 91.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-20 | 50.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-20 | 92.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-20 | 52.69 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-20 | 61.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-20 | 162.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-20 | 95.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-20 | 175.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-20 | 366.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-20 | 108.05 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-20 | 46.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-20 | 97.95 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-20 | 32.75 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-20 | 28.39 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-20 | 119.47 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-20 | 246.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-20 | 76.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-20 | 74.93 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-20 | 302.64 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-20 | 292.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-20 | 220.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-20 | 44.94 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 49395925b8fb...c6fe7a67 |
| manifest.yaml | af7e585509ff...f771576d |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | af2cd120fe18...8700ebaa |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 4fc4e5960f22...b2fc41ab |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 6ad09c03f204...69c63907 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | dbe12a09b8d6...34080c67 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 56aa11e0208b...e5215ccd |