8 valid portfolios
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
Round audit packet
CB-2026-08-09-1W
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Test CB-2026-08-09-1W pending
Portfolios Frozen By 2026-08-10
Start Date 2026-08-10
End Date 2026-08-17
Run ID official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260809
- 1 Inputs saved
11 public audit hashes are available.
- 2 Portfolios collected
8 valid model portfolios.
- 3 Start priced
0 starting-price rows published.
- 4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-08-17 prices are available.
Round state
Pending Score Pending
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
70 saved choices
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Ending prices pending
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
Input audit hashes
11 artifacts published.
Public run selected
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260809
Model-facing prompt available
34,235 shared prompt characters.
Ending prices pending
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Model consensus
Score pending Where Models Concentrated In This Round
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Interim tracking
Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
Live chart pending
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
Saved model-facing context Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a
small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 34,235 characters
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-09
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-10T03:04:55Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-10T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-10
- Exit date: 2026-08-17
- Entry rule: Use the Monday, August 10, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Monday, August 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing — August 9, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-08-10T03:04:55Z (11:04:55 p.m. EDT, Sunday, August 9). The latest completed U.S. market session was Friday, August 7.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Labor and economic activity
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July nonfarm payroll employment changed by -23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Local-government education employment fell 50,000, retail employment fell 19,000, and health-care employment continued to trend up.
- BLS revised May payroll growth from +129,000 to +63,000 and June growth from +57,000 to +20,000, a combined downward revision of 103,000.
- July average hourly earnings for private nonfarm employees were $37.62, up $0.02 in the month and 3.2% over 12 months. The average workweek was 34.3 hours.
- BLS reported 7.4 million job openings in June, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million total separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. May openings were revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
- The preliminary BLS estimate put second-quarter nonfarm-business productivity growth at a 1.4% annual rate, output growth at 1.7%, hours growth at 0.3%, and unit-labor-cost growth at 1.3%. Real hourly compensation fell at a 3.1% annual rate.
- The BEA advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9% annualized.
- ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, business activity of 59.1, new orders of 57.2, employment of 47.4, and supplier deliveries of 52.8.
- The Census Bureau's June advance retail-sales estimate was $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. The reported margins of error were ±0.4 percentage point and ±0.5 percentage point, respectively. May monthly growth was revised from 0.9% to 1.0%.
## Inflation, spending, and monetary policy
- BLS reported that headline CPI fell 0.4% in June and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% above a year earlier.
- BLS reported that final-demand PPI fell 0.3% in June and rose 5.5% over 12 months. Final-demand goods fell 1.4%, services rose 0.2%, and final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% in June and 5.1% over 12 months.
- BEA reported that June personal income rose 0.2%, disposable personal income rose 0.2%, nominal consumer spending rose 0.3%, and real consumer spending rose 0.4%. The personal saving rate was 2.7%.
- The June PCE price index fell 0.1% and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE prices rose 0.1% in June and 3.3% over 12 months.
- BLS reported that June import prices rose 0.3% and 7.1% over 12 months; export prices fell 0.6% in June. Fuel-import prices fell 0.4% in June and were 44.1% above a year earlier.
- On July 29, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement characterized activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and uncertainty as elevated partly because of the Middle East conflict. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Completed market facts through August 7
- The S&P 500 closed August 7 at a record 7,757.64, up 0.6% for the session and 3.6% for the week. The Dow closed at 54,036.93, up 0.3% for the session and 3.0% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,690.62, up 1.3% for the session and 5.2% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,034.49, up 1.1% for the session and 3.5% for the week.
- U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yields on August 7 were 3.87% at 3 months, 4.01% at 1 year, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.35% at 5 years, 4.65% at 10 years, and 5.19% at 30 years.
- Treasury real constant-maturity yields on August 7 were 2.13% at 5 years, 2.25% at 7 years, 2.40% at 10 years, 2.75% at 20 years, and 2.96% at 30 years.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude at $83.55 per barrel on August 7, up 1.3% for the session. AP reported that the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to restrict oil flows and that arrangements to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved.
## Scheduled events
All times are Eastern. Calendar entries are scheduled events, not forecasts of the reported values.
### Through the August 17 close
- August 12, 8:30 a.m.: July CPI and real earnings; 10:00 a.m.: July business-formation statistics.
- August 13, 8:30 a.m.: July PPI.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m.: July advance retail sales; 10:00 a.m.: June manufacturing-and-trade inventories and sales.
### Additional events through the September 10 close
- August 18, 8:30 a.m.: July import/export prices and July housing starts and permits; 9:15 a.m.: July industrial production and capacity utilization.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m.: minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
- August 20, 10:00 a.m.: second-quarter advance services report.
- August 21, 10:00 a.m.: July state employment and unemployment.
- August 25, 10:00 a.m.: July new-home sales.
- August 26, 8:30 a.m.: second estimate of Q2 GDP and corporate profits; July personal income and outlays; July durable-goods advance report.
- August 27, 8:30 a.m.: July advance economic indicators.
- August 27-29: Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; announced theme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
- August 28, 10:00 a.m.: Q1 county employment and wages and March 2026 preliminary CES benchmark estimates.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m.: July JOLTS and August ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m.: revised Q2 productivity and July U.S. international trade; 10:00 a.m.: August ISM Services PMI.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m.: August employment situation.
- September 7: scheduled U.S. exchange closure for Labor Day.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m.: August PPI.
## Estimate and status notes
- The July employment release is subject to later revisions; BLS described the payroll and unemployment-rate changes as little changed.
- The Q2 GDP figures are an advance estimate; the second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- The Q2 productivity figures are preliminary; the revision is scheduled for September 3.
- ISM figures are survey diffusion indexes. Census advance retail sales include the stated sampling margins and are not adjusted for price changes.
- The reported Strait of Hormuz arrangements were unresolved at the cutoff.
This briefing is factual and non-prescriptive. The separate mechanical appendix is complete, descriptive, and sorted in frozen option order; its placement and values are not recommendations.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-09-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-09'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-10T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-10T03:04:36.344429+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Monday, August 10, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Monday, August 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-10'
exit_date: '2026-08-17'
created_at: '2026-08-10T03:04:36.344429+00:00'
notes: 'Brand-new research prepared from direct public-source browsing only with a 2026-08-10T03:04:55Z cutoff; no prior CapitalBench input report was used. Participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing — August 9, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-08-10T03:04:55Z (11:04:55 p.m. EDT, Sunday, August 9). The latest completed U.S. market session was Friday, August 7.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Labor and economic activity
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July nonfarm payroll employment changed by -23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Local-government education employment fell 50,000, retail employment fell 19,000, and health-care employment continued to trend up.
- BLS revised May payroll growth from +129,000 to +63,000 and June growth from +57,000 to +20,000, a combined downward revision of 103,000.
- July average hourly earnings for private nonfarm employees were $37.62, up $0.02 in the month and 3.2% over 12 months. The average workweek was 34.3 hours.
- BLS reported 7.4 million job openings in June, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million total separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. May openings were revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
- The preliminary BLS estimate put second-quarter nonfarm-business productivity growth at a 1.4% annual rate, output growth at 1.7%, hours growth at 0.3%, and unit-labor-cost growth at 1.3%. Real hourly compensation fell at a 3.1% annual rate.
- The BEA advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9% annualized.
- ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, business activity of 59.1, new orders of 57.2, employment of 47.4, and supplier deliveries of 52.8.
- The Census Bureau's June advance retail-sales estimate was $768.6 billion, up 0.2% month over month and 6.7% year over year. The reported margins of error were ±0.4 percentage point and ±0.5 percentage point, respectively. May monthly growth was revised from 0.9% to 1.0%.
## Inflation, spending, and monetary policy
- BLS reported that headline CPI fell 0.4% in June and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% above a year earlier.
- BLS reported that final-demand PPI fell 0.3% in June and rose 5.5% over 12 months. Final-demand goods fell 1.4%, services rose 0.2%, and final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1% in June and 5.1% over 12 months.
- BEA reported that June personal income rose 0.2%, disposable personal income rose 0.2%, nominal consumer spending rose 0.3%, and real consumer spending rose 0.4%. The personal saving rate was 2.7%.
- The June PCE price index fell 0.1% and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE prices rose 0.1% in June and 3.3% over 12 months.
- BLS reported that June import prices rose 0.3% and 7.1% over 12 months; export prices fell 0.6% in June. Fuel-import prices fell 0.4% in June and were 44.1% above a year earlier.
- On July 29, the FOMC voted 9-3 to keep the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75%. The statement characterized activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and uncertainty as elevated partly because of the Middle East conflict. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Completed market facts through August 7
- The S&P 500 closed August 7 at a record 7,757.64, up 0.6% for the session and 3.6% for the week. The Dow closed at 54,036.93, up 0.3% for the session and 3.0% for the week. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,690.62, up 1.3% for the session and 5.2% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,034.49, up 1.1% for the session and 3.5% for the week.
- U.S. Treasury constant-maturity yields on August 7 were 3.87% at 3 months, 4.01% at 1 year, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.35% at 5 years, 4.65% at 10 years, and 5.19% at 30 years.
- Treasury real constant-maturity yields on August 7 were 2.13% at 5 years, 2.25% at 7 years, 2.40% at 10 years, 2.75% at 20 years, and 2.96% at 30 years.
- Associated Press reported Brent crude at $83.55 per barrel on August 7, up 1.3% for the session. AP reported that the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to restrict oil flows and that arrangements to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remained unresolved.
## Scheduled events
All times are Eastern. Calendar entries are scheduled events, not forecasts of the reported values.
### Through the August 17 close
- August 12, 8:30 a.m.: July CPI and real earnings; 10:00 a.m.: July business-formation statistics.
- August 13, 8:30 a.m.: July PPI.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m.: July advance retail sales; 10:00 a.m.: June manufacturing-and-trade inventories and sales.
### Additional events through the September 10 close
- August 18, 8:30 a.m.: July import/export prices and July housing starts and permits; 9:15 a.m.: July industrial production and capacity utilization.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m.: minutes of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting.
- August 20, 10:00 a.m.: second-quarter advance services report.
- August 21, 10:00 a.m.: July state employment and unemployment.
- August 25, 10:00 a.m.: July new-home sales.
- August 26, 8:30 a.m.: second estimate of Q2 GDP and corporate profits; July personal income and outlays; July durable-goods advance report.
- August 27, 8:30 a.m.: July advance economic indicators.
- August 27-29: Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium; announced theme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
- August 28, 10:00 a.m.: Q1 county employment and wages and March 2026 preliminary CES benchmark estimates.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m.: July JOLTS and August ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m.: revised Q2 productivity and July U.S. international trade; 10:00 a.m.: August ISM Services PMI.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m.: August employment situation.
- September 7: scheduled U.S. exchange closure for Labor Day.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m.: August PPI.
## Estimate and status notes
- The July employment release is subject to later revisions; BLS described the payroll and unemployment-rate changes as little changed.
- The Q2 GDP figures are an advance estimate; the second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- The Q2 productivity figures are preliminary; the revision is scheduled for September 3.
- ISM figures are survey diffusion indexes. Census advance retail sales include the stated sampling margins and are not adjusted for price changes.
- The reported Strait of Hormuz arrangements were unresolved at the cutoff.
This briefing is factual and non-prescriptive. The separate mechanical appendix is complete, descriptive, and sorted in frozen option order; its placement and values are not recommendations.Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."Round Hashes hashes.json
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}Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 8 model calls
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-09-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF Parsed provider responses Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded
from the public site.
Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5
anthropic-claude-fable-5
4 holdings Gold (IAU)
Gold (IAU) 30% Energy Sector (XLE) 25% United Kingdom Equities (EWU) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 25%
- Confidence
- 0.56
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
With inflation elevated, the Fed on hold amid hawkish dissents, oil supply restricted by the unresolved Hormuz situation, and the dollar weakening, I tilt toward gold, pulled-back energy, and UK value equities while keeping a 25% SPY anchor.
Real-asset and value tilt (gold, energy, UK) funded from a partial SPY anchor, positioned for sticky-inflation prints and geopolitical supply risk during the Aug 10-17 window.
Portfolio
- Gold (IAU): 30% - Elevated inflation (CPI 3.5% y/y), Fed on hold, unresolved Middle East conflict, and strong recent gold momentum (+7.2% 5-session) support safe-haven and real-asset demand into the CPI print.
- Energy Sector (XLE): 25% - Brent at $83.55 with Hormuz flows restricted; energy equities pulled back ~7% vs SPY last week despite strong prior trend (top quality-evidence score 0.834), offering a rebound setup with geopolitical support.
- United Kingdom Equities (EWU): 20% - Strong prior relative trend with a recent pullback (quality score 0.838, highest ex-cash), value/dividend tilt benefits from sticky inflation and weakening dollar (UUP -1.0% over 21 sessions).
- S&P 500 (SPY): 25% - Benchmark ballast at record highs with solid final private demand growth (3.9%); anchors the portfolio against hot-CPI equity risk.
Key Risks
- Soft July CPI could lift growth/tech and hurt gold and energy relative to SPY
- Sudden Middle East de-escalation or Hormuz reopening would hit energy and gold
- Hot CPI could trigger broad risk-off dragging all equity holdings
- Dollar rebound would pressure gold and international equities
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record-high momentum with broad breadth (88% positive assets over 5 sessions) and solid private demand",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed Aug 7 at record 7,757.64, +3.6% for the week",
"Q2 real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 3.9% annualized",
"FOMC held at 3.50%-3.75% with three dissents preferring a hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Core CPI acceleration driving 10y yields sharply above 4.65%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot July CPI on Aug 12 reprices rate expectations after hawkish dissents",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation, a weakening dollar, and geopolitical risk sustain safe-haven demand",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CPI 3.5% y/y and core PCE 3.3% y/y with Fed on hold",
"IAU +7.23% over 5 sessions and +5.38% over 21 sessions",
"Middle East conflict cited as elevating uncertainty in FOMC statement"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Real 10y yield rising materially above 2.40% or geopolitical de-escalation",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Strong momentum could mean-revert if CPI is soft and real yields rise",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12; geopolitical headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Restricted oil flows and elevated Brent support earnings; recent pullback offers rebound entry",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent at $83.55, up 1.3% Aug 7; Hormuz arrangements unresolved",
"XLE -6.95% active over 5 sessions after +9.25% prior 16-session active return",
"Energy quality evidence score 0.834, among the highest in the universe"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Reopening agreement announced or Brent below ~$78",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Hormuz resolution collapses the geopolitical premium and extends the recent selloff",
"time_window_catalyst": "Strait of Hormuz developments before Aug 17"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Established relative uptrend, value/dividend composition suits sticky inflation, dollar tailwind",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EWU prior 16-session active return +4.93% with -3.04% recent pullback",
"Highest quality evidence score among equity options (0.838)",
"Dollar weakening: UUP -1.02% over 21 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP rallying >1% or broad risk-off in developed markets",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"reversal_case": "Dollar rebound or global risk-off drags international equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "US CPI/PPI Aug 12-13 shaping dollar and global rate paths"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong weekly bounce could persist if CPI is benign",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq +5.2% last week but QQQ prior 16-session active return -4.26%",
"QQQ 21-session volatility 25.6% with -8.8% max drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Rates rising on hot CPI hitting long-duration growth stocks",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta (1.73) and sticky inflation make it vulnerable to a hot CPI; no independent fundamental catalyst supplied",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value trend intact in sticky-inflation regime",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +2.83% with modest -1.23% pullback",
"Low 9.2% volatility and -1.3% drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth factor resuming leadership after CPI",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound continues post soft CPI",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls (-23k) could rally duration on growth fears",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y yield at 5.19%, 10y at 4.65%",
"CPI 3.5% y/y with three FOMC members preferring a hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot inflation prints pushing long yields higher",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish dissents keep upward yield pressure",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13"
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.395,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Soft July CPI could lift growth/tech and hurt gold and energy relative to SPY",
"Sudden Middle East de-escalation or Hormuz reopening would hit energy and gold",
"Hot CPI could trigger broad risk-off dragging all equity holdings",
"Dollar rebound would pressure gold and international equities"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Soft CPI print driving real yields higher and dollar strength, or geopolitical de-escalation announcement",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Elevated inflation (CPI 3.5% y/y), Fed on hold, unresolved Middle East conflict, and strong recent gold momentum (+7.2% 5-session) support safe-haven and real-asset demand into the CPI print.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI on Aug 12; ongoing Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz uncertainty"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hormuz reopening agreement or Brent falling below ~$78",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent at $83.55 with Hormuz flows restricted; energy equities pulled back ~7% vs SPY last week despite strong prior trend (top quality-evidence score 0.834), offering a rebound setup with geopolitical support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz arrangements; any supply disruption headlines before Aug 17"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp dollar rally or global risk-off exceeding -2% on VEA",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend with a recent pullback (quality score 0.838, highest ex-cash), value/dividend tilt benefits from sticky inflation and weakening dollar (UUP -1.0% over 21 sessions).",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued dollar weakness; US CPI/PPI Aug 12-13 shaping global rate expectations"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI reigniting hike expectations after 9-3 FOMC hold with three dissents for a hike",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark ballast at record highs with solid final private demand growth (3.9%); anchors the portfolio against hot-CPI equity risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.695,
"portfolio_rationale": "With inflation elevated, the Fed on hold amid hawkish dissents, oil supply restricted by the unresolved Hormuz situation, and the dollar weakening, I tilt toward gold, pulled-back energy, and UK value equities while keeping a 25% SPY anchor.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Real-asset and value tilt (gold, energy, UK) funded from a partial SPY anchor, positioned for sticky-inflation prints and geopolitical supply risk during the Aug 10-17 window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28190,
"latency_seconds": 51.765692793997005,
"output_tokens": 3514,
"total_tokens": 31704
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
3 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Gold (IAU) 25% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25%
- Confidence
- 0.50
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Core SPY anchor complemented by gold safe-haven strength and defensive healthcare, balancing continued equity strength against weakening labor data and inflation-print risk.
Half SPY, quarter gold for momentum/safe-haven, quarter healthcare for defensive tilt given soft payrolls.
Portfolio
- S&P 500 (SPY): 50% - Broad US large-cap at record highs with strong week momentum; core position with lower single-cluster risk.
- Gold (IAU): 25% - Gold surged 6.5% recently with weak payrolls and rate-cut hopes supporting real-rate declines; safe-haven amid Middle East conflict.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 25% - Defensive sector with strong recent 3-session return (+2.21%), negative SPY beta, low drawdown; hedge on soft labor backdrop.
Key Risks
- Hot July CPI/PPI on Aug 12-13 lifts yields and hurts gold and equities
- Risk-on continuation leaves defensives and gold lagging SPY
- Middle East/oil shock triggers broad risk-off
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record highs, positive breadth, strong week momentum",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed Aug 7 at record 7,757.64, +3.6% week",
"spy_return_5s 3.51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained close below prior support on hot inflation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot CPI/PPI lifts yields and reverses gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls and rate-cut hopes lower real rates; safe-haven demand",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD return_3s 6.51%, active_return_5s 3.72%",
"iau_return_5s 7.23%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields spike above recent range",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Hot inflation lifts real yields and dollar",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PCE data and Fed cut expectations"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation on soft labor data, negative beta hedge",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE return_3s 2.21%, beta_spy -0.240",
"low drawdown -3.09%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on melt-up leaves healthcare lagging",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally favors cyclicals over defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weak payrolls, defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech leadership and strong week momentum",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq +5.2% week",
"active_return_5s 1.58%, beta 1.729"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield spike hits growth",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta amplifies inflation-print selloff",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Soft labor supports duration",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Weak payrolls -23k",
"tlt_return_5s 1.03%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Inflation surprise higher",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Hot CPI lifts yields",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Hormuz risk could spike oil",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY active_return_5s -6.95%",
"uso_return_5s -8.66%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil resumes decline",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil weakness continuing, sharp recent drop",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East developments"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Quality tilt, stable spreads",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS active_return_5s -2.35%",
"high quality score 0.739"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Recent underperformance, yield-curve pressure",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PPI, rates"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Solid prior trend",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"EUROPE active_return_5s -1.29%",
"quality score 0.690"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro weakness and risk-off",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Recent lag vs SPY",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global risk sentiment"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.09,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI/PPI on Aug 12-13 lifts yields and hurts gold and equities",
"Risk-on continuation leaves defensives and gold lagging SPY",
"Middle East/oil shock triggers broad risk-off"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI/PPI drives yields sharply higher and equities sell off",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad US large-cap at record highs with strong week momentum; core position with lower single-cluster risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot inflation lifts real yields and dollar, pressuring gold",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold surged 6.5% recently with weak payrolls and rate-cut hopes supporting real-rate declines; safe-haven amid Middle East conflict.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI/PCE inflation data and Fed-cut expectations amid weak labor data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on melt-up leaves defensives lagging broad market",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent 3-session return (+2.21%), negative SPY beta, low drawdown; hedge on soft labor backdrop.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation on weak payrolls and softening growth"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.44,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SPY anchor complemented by gold safe-haven strength and defensive healthcare, balancing continued equity strength against weakening labor data and inflation-print risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Half SPY, quarter gold for momentum/safe-haven, quarter healthcare for defensive tilt given soft payrolls.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28196,
"latency_seconds": 34.63465815410018,
"output_tokens": 2400,
"total_tokens": 30596
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 5
anthropic-claude-opus-5
4 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Gold (IAU) 20% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20% Technology Sector (XLK) 20%
- Confidence
- 0.50
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Keep meaningful benchmark weight while adding a gold hedge against unresolved oil/geopolitical and inflation risk, plus balanced defensive (healthcare) and offensive (technology) sleeves.
SPY sits at a record after a +3.6% week into a dense CPI/PPI/retail-sales calendar, so a barbell of core index, gold, healthcare, and tech is preferred to a concentrated bet.
Portfolio
- S&P 500 (SPY): 40% - Core benchmark exposure at record highs with broad participation.
- Gold (IAU): 20% - Safe-haven bid amid unresolved Hormuz conflict, elevated 3.3% core PCE, and softening payrolls; low correlation hedge.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive sector with mid-pack quality score, near 52-week high, negative SPY beta offers diversification with positive drift.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 20% - Leadership re-established with +3.69% 5s active after a prior-window drawdown; participates if melt-up continues.
Key Risks
- Hot July CPI on Aug 12 hits both equities and gold via higher real yields
- Mean reversion after SPY's +3.5% five-day run
- Gold already up 7.2% in five sessions and vulnerable to profit-taking
- Tech's high beta amplifies any macro-driven drawdown
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record highs with broad participation and solid services PMI.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed Aug 7 at record 7,757.64, +3.6% for the week",
"positive_asset_share_5s 88.41%",
"Payrolls -23k with 103k downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Core CPI surprise driving >2% index decline",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Overbought after a 3.6% week into CPI/PPI/retail sales.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven and inflation-hedge demand with soft labor data.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +7.23% over 5 sessions, +5.38% over 21",
"Hormuz arrangements unresolved",
"Core PCE +3.3% y/y"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "10y real yield above 2.6%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Sharp 5-day run invites profit-taking; higher real yields hurt.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive leadership with healthcare employment still trending up.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +2.21% over 3 sessions, only -0.94% from 52w high",
"Negative 63s beta to SPY (-0.24)",
"Quality score 0.547"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by more than 2%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Defensives lag if risk appetite stays strong.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro releases Aug 12-14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth leadership resuming after a deep prior-window pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLK +3.69% active over 5 sessions",
"Prior 16s active -4.77% indicates rebound from drawdown",
"Nasdaq +5.2% for the week"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK trailing SPY by more than 3%",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Beta 2.17 and 35% vol make it fragile to a hot CPI print.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 rate sensitivity"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk could re-spike crude.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE -6.95% active over 5 sessions",
"Brent $83.55, Hormuz unresolved",
"USO -8.66% 5s after +8.23% 21s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $78",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Sharp momentum break already underway; de-escalation headlines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiation headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Precious/industrial metals strength spilling into miners.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XME +11.48% active over 5 sessions",
"Volatility 43%, quality score 0.131"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold/silver reversing more than 3%",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"reversal_case": "Extreme short-run run-up, very high reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Metals price action into Aug 17"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls support duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"AGG volatility 3.79%, drawdown -0.88%",
"10y at 4.65%, 30y at 5.19%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield above 4.85%",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Elevated CPI/PPI and three hawkish FOMC dissents.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 and PPI Aug 13"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady relative trend with low volatility.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"VGK prior 16s active +3.09%, at 52w high",
"Quality score 0.690"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Euro weakness below prior week low",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Lagged the latest US-led rally; base does not clear SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "US macro spillover Aug 12-14"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.24,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI on Aug 12 hits both equities and gold via higher real yields",
"Mean reversion after SPY's +3.5% five-day run",
"Gold already up 7.2% in five sessions and vulnerable to profit-taking",
"Tech's high beta amplifies any macro-driven drawdown"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot core CPI above 0.4% m/m driving a >2% index drawdown",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure at record highs with broad participation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12, PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Real 10y yield rising above 2.6% or gold closing below the prior week's low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven bid amid unresolved Hormuz conflict, elevated 3.3% core PCE, and softening payrolls; low correlation hedge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12; Middle East headlines"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector policy headline or 2% relative underperformance vs SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with mid-pack quality score, near 52-week high, negative SPY beta offers diversification with positive drift.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data Aug 12-14"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Semis/tech giving back more than 3% relative to SPY",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Leadership re-established with +3.69% 5s active after a prior-window drawdown; participates if melt-up continues.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 rate-sensitivity for growth multiples"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.54,
"portfolio_rationale": "Keep meaningful benchmark weight while adding a gold hedge against unresolved oil/geopolitical and inflation risk, plus balanced defensive (healthcare) and offensive (technology) sleeves.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY sits at a record after a +3.6% week into a dense CPI/PPI/retail-sales calendar, so a barbell of core index, gold, healthcare, and tech is preferred to a concentrated bet.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28190,
"latency_seconds": 39.31696643889882,
"output_tokens": 2808,
"total_tokens": 30998
}
} Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
2 holdings Gold (IAU)
Gold (IAU) 50% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 50%
- Confidence
- 0.65
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio is positioned defensively, favoring Gold and Healthcare. This allocation seeks to capitalize on recent momentum in these assets while providing a hedge against potential volatility from upcoming inflation data and geopolitical risks.
Defensive positioning with Gold and Healthcare to navigate mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty.
Portfolio
- Gold (IAU): 50% - Gold has strong recent momentum and acts as a safe haven amid Middle East tensions and mixed economic data.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 50% - Healthcare offers defensive characteristics with positive recent momentum and solid quality evidence.
Key Risks
- A sudden resolution to Middle East tensions could reduce safe-haven demand for Gold.
- Stronger-than-expected retail sales could trigger a rotation back into cyclical sectors, underperforming Healthcare.
- Hotter-than-expected CPI/PPI could drive yields higher, negatively impacting Gold.
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued momentum from recent record highs and potential for softer inflation data to support rate cut expectations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.64, up 3.6% for the week.",
"July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant negative surprise in retail sales or a spike in inflation.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak labor data and mixed economic signals could lead to a pullback from record highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, and retail sales data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential for softer inflation data to lower real yields.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Gold (IAU) returned 6.51% over the prior 3 sessions and 3.72% active return over 5 sessions.",
"FOMC statement noted uncertainty is elevated partly because of the Middle East conflict."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp de-escalation in the Middle East or significantly hotter-than-expected inflation data driving real yields higher.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A de-escalation in the Middle East or hotter-than-expected inflation data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI data releases, ongoing Middle East conflict."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive positioning amid mixed economic data and continued employment growth in the sector.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare (XLV) returned 2.21% over the prior 3 sessions.",
"BLS reported health-care employment continued to trend up."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden risk-on rally favoring high-beta technology stocks over defensive sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on rally favoring cyclical and growth sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and retail sales data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could drive oil prices higher.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Energy (XLE) had a -6.95% active return over 5 sessions.",
"Brent crude was at $83.55 per barrel, up 1.3% for the session, with U.S.-Iran conflict restricting flows."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden resolution to the Middle East conflict leading to a sharp drop in oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Weak global demand or a resolution to the Middle East conflict.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued momentum in mega-cap tech and potential for softer inflation to support growth valuations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Technology (XLK) had a 3.69% active return over 5 sessions.",
"Nasdaq Composite closed up 5.2% for the week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant upside surprise in inflation data leading to a spike in Treasury yields.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Valuation concerns or hotter-than-expected inflation driving yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak economic data (e.g., negative payrolls) could drive yields lower and bond prices higher.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Long Treasury (TLT) had a -2.49% active return over 5 sessions.",
"10-year Treasury yield was 4.65% on August 7."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant upside surprise in inflation data leading to a spike in Treasury yields.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Hotter-than-expected inflation data could drive yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, and retail sales data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.85,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden resolution to Middle East tensions could reduce safe-haven demand for Gold.",
"Stronger-than-expected retail sales could trigger a rotation back into cyclical sectors, underperforming Healthcare.",
"Hotter-than-expected CPI/PPI could drive yields higher, negatively impacting Gold."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp de-escalation in the Middle East or significantly hotter-than-expected inflation data driving real yields higher.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold has strong recent momentum and acts as a safe haven amid Middle East tensions and mixed economic data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI data releases, ongoing Middle East conflict."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden risk-on rally favoring high-beta technology stocks over defensive sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers defensive characteristics with positive recent momentum and solid quality evidence.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and retail sales data."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is positioned defensively, favoring Gold and Healthcare. This allocation seeks to capitalize on recent momentum in these assets while providing a hedge against potential volatility from upcoming inflation data and geopolitical risks.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive positioning with Gold and Healthcare to navigate mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17383,
"latency_seconds": 13.047201813897118,
"output_tokens": 1854,
"total_tokens": 19237
}
} OpenAI
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5
5 holdings Crude Oil (USO)
Crude Oil (USO) 25% Gold (IAU) 25% Metals and Mining (XME) 20% United Kingdom Equities (EWU) 15% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio avoids relying on SPY after a record close and instead combines event-sensitive commodity/safe-haven exposures with defensive and international diversifiers. Selected holdings have base forecasts above the SPY base case and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds the 50% cap.
One-week alpha is expected to come from unresolved oil-supply risk, precious-metals support, commodity/mining momentum, and selective defensive rotation around CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases. The main tradeoff is higher idiosyncratic volatility versus the benchmark.
Portfolio
- Crude Oil (USO): 25% - Direct crude exposure has the strongest one-week event support from unresolved Hormuz restrictions and a deep recent pullback despite a very strong prior active trend.
- Gold (IAU): 25% - Gold has recent strength and potential support from geopolitical uncertainty and inflation-event risk, with lower equity-market dependence than SPY.
- Metals and Mining (XME): 20% - Metals and mining shows the strongest recent active move in the ledger, supported by broad commodity sensitivity and potential continuation if cyclical commodity appetite persists.
- United Kingdom Equities (EWU): 15% - UK equities combine high quality evidence, strong prior active trend, low drawdown, and a recent pullback that may mean-revert if global value/defensive exposures recover.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 15% - Healthcare offers a defensive equity diversifier with positive short-term absolute momentum and lower SPY beta, useful if weak labor data weighs on broad cyclicals.
Key Risks
- CPI or PPI comes in benign enough to lift broad U.S. growth equities and reduce demand for gold and defensive exposures.
- A rapid de-escalation or reopening arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz reverses oil and energy-sensitive trades.
- Recent commodity and metals strength proves overextended and mean-reverts during the scoring week.
- SPY momentum persists after its record close, led by mega-cap technology not represented in the selected portfolio.
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record-high momentum and broad positive asset participation could persist if macro releases support a soft-landing view.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed August 7 at a record 7,757.64 after rising 3.6% for the week.",
"SPY return was 3.51% over 5 sessions and 2.87% over 21 sessions.",
"Scheduled CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases occur before the exit close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks above the record with broad participation after CPI/PPI and maintains leadership versus selected diversifiers.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "After a strong weekly gain, weak payroll data and inflation-event risk could trigger profit-taking or factor rotation away from the index.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI, August 13 PPI, and August 14 retail sales."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply restrictions plus a deep recent pullback can drive a sharp rebound if risk premiums rebuild during the week.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"AP reported Brent crude at $83.55 on August 7, up 1.3% for the session.",
"AP reported the U.S.-Iran conflict continued to restrict oil flows and Hormuz reopening arrangements remained unresolved.",
"OIL had a 19.12% prior 16-session active return but a -12.17% 5-session active return, with quality evidence score 0.754."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Clear announcement that Hormuz reopening arrangements are resolved or crude fails to hold its post-pullback rebound.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Very high volatility and a large prior advance raise the risk that recent weakness continues if supply fears fade.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East oil-flow headlines and any inflation-sensitive reaction around August 12 CPI and August 13 PPI."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strength can continue if geopolitical uncertainty or inflation surprises support safe-haven and real-asset demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Gold returned 7.23% over 5 sessions and 5.38% over 21 sessions in the mechanical market state.",
"GOLD had a 6.51% 3-session return and 3.72% 5-session active return.",
"The briefing cites elevated uncertainty partly because of the Middle East conflict."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields or the U.S. dollar rise sharply after CPI/PPI while gold reverses below its recent breakout.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "The quality evidence score is low at 0.237, so recent price strength may be stretched and vulnerable to a dollar or real-yield rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI, August 13 PPI, and continuing Middle East uncertainty before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent relative performance with elevated volume may persist if commodity and cyclical risk appetite remain firm.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"METALS_MINING had a 7.31% 3-session return and 11.48% 5-session active return.",
"Volume z-score was 0.846, indicating elevated recent reported volume versus baseline.",
"Volatility was high at 43.09% and distance to 52-week high was -12.81%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp commodity reversal or loss of the recent 5-day relative-strength leadership.",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"reversal_case": "The option has weak quality evidence of 0.131 and very high volatility, making a short-term reversal plausible after a sharp run.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and commodity-linked risk appetite during the scoring week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior trend, shallow drawdown, and recent pullback create a short-term mean-reversion setup if value/defensive global equities recover.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"UNITED_KINGDOM had the highest listed quality evidence score among equity country options at 0.838.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 4.93% while 5-session active return was -3.04%.",
"Volatility was 11.71% and max drawdown was -1.23%, both relatively contained versus many equity options."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "UK equities continue underperforming SPY after the macro releases or sterling-linked risk weakens materially.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"reversal_case": "If U.S. mega-cap momentum continues, lower-beta UK exposure may lag SPY further.",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. CPI/PPI and retail sales shaping global rate and equity-factor rotation during the week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent absolute strength and defensive characteristics can outperform if weak labor data or inflation uncertainty pressures broad risk assets.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE had a 2.21% 3-session return despite a -1.59% 5-session active return.",
"The briefing states health-care employment continued to trend up.",
"HEALTHCARE had negative 63-session beta to SPY of -0.240 and correlation of -0.183."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent 3-day relative improvement or high-beta equity leadership broadens decisively.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "If risk appetite remains strong after macro releases, defensive healthcare may lag higher-beta sectors and SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around August 12 CPI, August 13 PPI, and August 14 retail sales."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like yield and low volatility should preserve capital if risk assets reverse during macro-event risk.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SHORT_TREASURY quality evidence score was 0.783, supported by low volatility and shallow drawdown ranks of 1.000.",
"3-month Treasury yield was 3.87% on August 7.",
"SHORT_TREASURY had 0.07% 3-session return and 0.19% 21-session volatility."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY remains positive after the inflation releases, making Treasury-bill carry insufficient for alpha.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its expected one-week return is unlikely to beat SPY unless equities sell off, and it had -3.43% 5-session active return versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No direct upside catalyst identified beyond risk-off reaction to CPI, PPI, or retail sales."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strong active performance could persist if growth-stock sentiment remains favorable after macro data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE had 5.06% 5-session active return and 1.37% prior 16-session active return.",
"Volatility was 31.39% and max drawdown was -7.28%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.361, with very low recent pullback rank of 0.060."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Software underperforms SPY immediately after CPI/PPI or rate-sensitive growth leadership fades.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, limited pullback support, and broad tech sensitivity to rates make a CPI/PPI-driven reversal plausible.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI and August 13 PPI effects on rates and growth-stock valuation sentiment."
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.5025,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"CPI or PPI comes in benign enough to lift broad U.S. growth equities and reduce demand for gold and defensive exposures.",
"A rapid de-escalation or reopening arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz reverses oil and energy-sensitive trades.",
"Recent commodity and metals strength proves overextended and mean-reverts during the scoring week.",
"SPY momentum persists after its record close, led by mega-cap technology not represented in the selected portfolio."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Clear announcement that Hormuz reopening arrangements are resolved or crude fails to hold its post-pullback rebound.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "Direct crude exposure has the strongest one-week event support from unresolved Hormuz restrictions and a deep recent pullback despite a very strong prior active trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East oil-flow headlines and any inflation-sensitive reaction around August 12 CPI and August 13 PPI."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields or the U.S. dollar rise sharply after CPI/PPI while gold reverses below its recent breakout.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold has recent strength and potential support from geopolitical uncertainty and inflation-event risk, with lower equity-market dependence than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI, August 13 PPI, and continuing Middle East uncertainty before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp commodity reversal or loss of the recent 5-day relative-strength leadership.",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "Metals and mining shows the strongest recent active move in the ledger, supported by broad commodity sensitivity and potential continuation if cyclical commodity appetite persists.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and commodity-linked risk appetite during the scoring week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "UK equities continue underperforming SPY after the macro releases or sterling-linked risk weakens materially.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"rationale": "UK equities combine high quality evidence, strong prior active trend, low drawdown, and a recent pullback that may mean-revert if global value/defensive exposures recover.",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. CPI/PPI and retail sales shaping global rate and equity-factor rotation during the week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses its recent 3-day relative improvement or high-beta equity leadership broadens decisively.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers a defensive equity diversifier with positive short-term absolute momentum and lower SPY beta, useful if weak labor data weighs on broad cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around August 12 CPI, August 13 PPI, and August 14 retail sales."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.6525,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio avoids relying on SPY after a record close and instead combines event-sensitive commodity/safe-haven exposures with defensive and international diversifiers. Selected holdings have base forecasts above the SPY base case and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds the 50% cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "One-week alpha is expected to come from unresolved oil-supply risk, precious-metals support, commodity/mining momentum, and selective defensive rotation around CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases. The main tradeoff is higher idiosyncratic volatility versus the benchmark.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15826,
"latency_seconds": 42.95608085510321,
"output_tokens": 2822,
"reasoning_tokens": 311,
"total_tokens": 18648
}
} OpenAI
GPT-5.6 Sol
openai-gpt-5-6-sol
3 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)
Energy Sector (XLE) 40% United Kingdom Equities (EWU) 35% US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) 25%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio combines an independently supported geopolitical energy trade with two lower-volatility pullback candidates. Distinct exposure clusters limit reliance on a single response to CPI, PPI, and retail-sales data.
ENERGY has the clearest near-term fundamental catalyst, while UNITED_KINGDOM and LOW_VOL provide strong quality evidence and potential defensive rotation. All selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY's 0.35% forecast.
Portfolio
- Energy Sector (XLE): 40% - Unresolved restrictions on oil flows provide direct fundamental support after a sharp relative pullback, while sector quality evidence is exceptionally strong.
- United Kingdom Equities (EWU): 35% - Strong prior relative performance, a recent pullback, low volatility, and the highest equity-market quality score offer a favorable rebound setup.
- US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV): 25% - Weak labor data and major inflation releases favor defensive exposure, while the recent relative pullback creates room for mean reversion.
Key Risks
- A rapid reopening of oil transit routes could reverse the energy thesis.
- Benign inflation and strong retail sales could extend the mega-cap-led risk rally and hurt defensive relative performance.
- A stronger U.S. dollar could reduce returns on unhedged United Kingdom equities.
- One-week outcomes may be dominated by volatile reactions to CPI and PPI rather than prior quality signals.
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record highs and broad positive participation can sustain risk appetite through another week.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 3.51% over five sessions and ended August 7 at a record high.",
"Positive asset share was 88.41%, but equal-weight SP500 lagged SPY by 1.15 percentage points.",
"July payrolls fell 23,000 and prior months were revised down by 103,000."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.3,
"invalidation_condition": "A decisive post-data breakout with improving equal-weight participation would invalidate the cautious forecast.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A 3.51% weekly gain leaves the index vulnerable to profit-taking around inflation and retail-sales releases.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, and retail sales on August 12-14."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent supply restrictions and strong prior relative trend support a rebound from the recent pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy had a 0.834 quality evidence score, with 0.985 prior-active and 0.970 pullback ranks.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was 9.25%, followed by a 6.95% five-session relative pullback.",
"Oil flows remained restricted by the U.S.-Iran conflict, and Strait of Hormuz arrangements were unresolved."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil-flow restrictions ease materially or energy equities extend their recent underperformance despite firm crude prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Any credible restoration of oil flows could rapidly unwind the geopolitical premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in restricted oil flows and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation before August 17."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative performance and shallow drawdown support renewed outperformance after the pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"United Kingdom equities had a 0.838 quality score, the strongest equity score in the table.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 4.93%, followed by a 3.04% five-session relative pullback.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 11.71% and drawdown was only 1.23%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "EWU breaks materially below its recent shallow drawdown while the dollar strengthens and global equities weaken.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength or a global risk-off move could overwhelm the favorable quality profile.",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases may encourage rotation toward lower-beta international equities."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak labor evidence and event risk can drive rotation toward defensive, lower-volatility equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Low volatility equities had a 0.754 quality score and a 0.896 recent-pullback rank.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 1.78%, versus a 3.54% relative decline over the latest five sessions.",
"July payrolls declined and May-June payroll growth received substantial downward revisions."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.58,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY continues making highs with broad risk-on participation while SPLV remains a relative laggard.",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Continued broad risk-on trading would favor higher-beta growth exposure and prolong defensive underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, and retail sales could trigger a defensive rotation from record-high broad equities."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical uncertainty and weak labor data could sustain safe-haven buying.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold rose 7.23% over five sessions and 5.38% over 21 sessions.",
"Its quality evidence score was only 0.237, with a 0.104 pullback rank.",
"The Middle East conflict and unresolved oil-flow arrangements preserved safe-haven demand."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold reverses sharply after inflation data while real Treasury yields rise.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "The sharp five-session gain creates substantial profit-taking risk, especially if real yields rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI, plus any change in Middle East oil-flow arrangements."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Carry and negligible duration exposure should preserve a small positive return through volatile data releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasuries had a 0.783 quality score and 0.19% 21-session volatility.",
"Their three-session return was 0.07% with no 21-session drawdown.",
"The three-month Treasury yield was 3.87% on August 7."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.04,
"invalidation_condition": "An unusual short-term funding or Treasury-market disruption produces a negative weekly return.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "There is little price upside, so any equity gain would produce substantial benchmark underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No material catalyst identified beyond accrual of short-term Treasury carry."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent leadership and positive prior active return could extend if inflation data supports growth valuations.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Software outperformed SPY by 5.06 percentage points over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was 1.37%, but the quality score was only 0.361.",
"Twenty-one-session volatility was 31.39% and reported volume was below its baseline."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Software loses recent relative momentum following inflation data or breaks below its pre-rally range.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Elevated volatility, weak volume confirmation, and a 5.06% relative weekly surge increase reversal risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI and PPI could move interest-rate expectations and growth-stock valuations."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.4775,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A rapid reopening of oil transit routes could reverse the energy thesis.",
"Benign inflation and strong retail sales could extend the mega-cap-led risk rally and hurt defensive relative performance.",
"A stronger U.S. dollar could reduce returns on unhedged United Kingdom equities.",
"One-week outcomes may be dominated by volatile reactions to CPI and PPI rather than prior quality signals."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil-flow restrictions ease materially or energy equities extend their recent underperformance despite firm crude prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Unresolved restrictions on oil flows provide direct fundamental support after a sharp relative pullback, while sector quality evidence is exceptionally strong.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in restricted oil flows and the unresolved Strait of Hormuz situation before August 17."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "EWU breaks materially below its recent shallow drawdown while the dollar strengthens and global equities weaken.",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative performance, a recent pullback, low volatility, and the highest equity-market quality score offer a favorable rebound setup.",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. CPI, PPI, and retail-sales releases may encourage rotation toward lower-beta international equities."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.58,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY continues making highs with broad risk-on participation while SPLV remains a relative laggard.",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Weak labor data and major inflation releases favor defensive exposure, while the recent relative pullback creates room for mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI, PPI, and retail sales could trigger a defensive rotation from record-high broad equities."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.8275,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines an independently supported geopolitical energy trade with two lower-volatility pullback candidates. Distinct exposure clusters limit reliance on a single response to CPI, PPI, and retail-sales data.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "ENERGY has the clearest near-term fundamental catalyst, while UNITED_KINGDOM and LOW_VOL provide strong quality evidence and potential defensive rotation. All selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY's 0.35% forecast.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15828,
"latency_seconds": 57.059437602059916,
"output_tokens": 2647,
"reasoning_tokens": 752,
"total_tokens": 18475
}
} xAI
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
4 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Gold (IAU) 20% Japan Equities (EWJ) 15% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Mix of SP500 with higher-forecast defensive and international holdings to capture alpha from labor-data caution and geopolitical factors over one week.
SP500 at 50% anchors the portfolio while GOLD, JAPAN and HEALTHCARE each exceed SP500 base forecast and stay within cluster caps.
Portfolio
- S&P 500 (SPY): 50% - Broad US equity exposure with base forecast supported by recent session gains despite labor data weakness.
- Gold (IAU): 20% - Safe-haven demand from unresolved Middle East conflict and recent 5-day return of 7.23%.
- Japan Equities (EWJ): 15% - Strong 3-day return of 2.42% and developed-market equity exposure outside US.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 15% - Defensive sector with 2.21% 3-day return amid employment weakness.
Key Risks
- CPI and PPI releases on August 12-13 could trigger volatility
- Unresolved Strait of Hormuz issues may reverse commodity flows
- Downward payroll revisions increase recession odds before exit
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Recent 3.51% 5-day gain persists into CPI week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed August 7 at record 7757.64 up 0.6% session",
"July nonfarm payrolls -23000 with downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI print above 0.3% month-over-month",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak employment data triggers risk-off rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical tension sustains safe-haven bids",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5-day return 7.23%",
"Brent crude at 83.55 with Hormuz unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "US dollar index rises above prior week close",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strengthens on hotter CPI",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yen carry trade unwind supports equity flows",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EWJ 3-day return 2.42%",
"Developed ex-US equity with 0.93% 3-day gain"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Yen strengthens more than 1% versus USD",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen strengthens sharply on risk aversion",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation after weak payrolls",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 3-day return 2.21%",
"Health-care employment continued to trend up"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "July PPI exceeds 0.2% month-over-month",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "PPI upside surprises raise rate-hike odds",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil supply restrictions from Hormuz persist",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE 5-day return -6.95%",
"USO 5-day return -8.66%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below 80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand concerns from weak retail sales dominate",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings momentum continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLK 5-day return 3.69%",
"Nasdaq Composite up 5.2% for the week"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Nasdaq 100 falls below prior week close",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Rate-sensitive growth stocks sell off on CPI",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "No active return generated",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"No market exposure",
"Short-term Treasury yields near 4%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 0,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "No market participation",
"option_id": "CASH",
"reversal_case": "No reversal applicable",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.465,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"CPI and PPI releases on August 12-13 could trigger volatility",
"Unresolved Strait of Hormuz issues may reverse commodity flows",
"Downward payroll revisions increase recession odds before exit"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI print above 0.3% month-over-month",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad US equity exposure with base forecast supported by recent session gains despite labor data weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "US dollar index rises above prior week close",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven demand from unresolved Middle East conflict and recent 5-day return of 7.23%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Yen strengthens more than 1% versus USD",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Strong 3-day return of 2.42% and developed-market equity exposure outside US.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "July PPI exceeds 0.2% month-over-month",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with 2.21% 3-day return amid employment weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 12 CPI release"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.065,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of SP500 with higher-forecast defensive and international holdings to capture alpha from labor-data caution and geopolitical factors over one week.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SP500 at 50% anchors the portfolio while GOLD, JAPAN and HEALTHCARE each exceed SP500 base forecast and stay within cluster caps.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16044,
"latency_seconds": 22.662530970061198,
"output_tokens": 1614,
"reasoning_tokens": 897,
"total_tokens": 18555
}
} xAI
Grok 4.5
xai-grok-4-5
4 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Gold (IAU) 25% Energy Sector (XLE) 20% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 15%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Core SPY exposure anchored to record levels and positive breadth, overlaid with gold and energy for geopolitics/supply facts and large-value for quality and defensive tilt. All active legs carry base forecasts above SPY and respect the 50% cluster cap.
One-week window dominated by CPI/PPI/retail data and unresolved oil-flow risk. Portfolio mixes benchmark beta with higher-base gold, energy, and value while staying inside allocation and cluster rules.
Portfolio
- S&P 500 (SPY): 40% - Benchmark core holding given record close and broad positive asset share; no stronger diversified active edge clears hurdle cleanly after labor softness.
- Gold (IAU): 25% - Geopolitical oil-flow uncertainty and recent relative strength support short-horizon safe-haven bid above SPY base.
- Energy Sector (XLE): 20% - High quality-evidence score plus supply-restriction facts give base case above SPY despite recent pullback.
- US Large-Cap Value (IWD): 15% - Strong prior active rank, low vol, and shallow drawdown support modest outperformance versus growth-heavy SPY on data week.
Key Risks
- Soft July payrolls and revisions raise recession-scare risk-off that hits equities and commodities together
- Stronger-than-expected CPI could reverse rate-cut hopes and pressure gold and duration-sensitive value
- Sudden Hormuz de-escalation would remove energy and gold tailwinds
- High recent SPY momentum leaves room for mean-reversion after 3.5% weekly gain
Validated JSON
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Record momentum and solid services PMI keep dip-buying intact into CPI week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed August 7 at record 7757.64, up 3.6% for the week",
"Positive asset share 88.41% over 5 sessions",
"July nonfarm payrolls -23k with large downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY fails to hold Friday close on weak data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Labor weakness and elevated inflation uncertainty trigger profit-taking after large weekly gain",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI August 12 and advance retail sales August 14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand persists while geopolitical oil risk remains open",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU return_3s +6.51% and active_return_5s +3.72%",
"AP reported U.S.-Iran conflict continued to restrict oil flows and Hormuz arrangements unresolved",
"FOMC noted elevated uncertainty partly because of Middle East conflict"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold gives back majority of 5-session outperformance on dollar strength",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on equity continuation and firmer real yields reverse recent gold spike",
"time_window_catalyst": "Any escalation or continued unresolved Hormuz headlines before August 17 close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply-restriction facts and deep recent relative pullback support bounce above SPY",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY quality evidence score 0.834 with prior active rank 0.985",
"Brent at $83.55 up 1.3% August 7; Hormuz arrangements unresolved",
"Energy sector active_return_5s -6.95% after strong prior_16s_active +9.25%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.95,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLE makes new 21-session low on falling crude",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or demand worries from weak labor data extend underperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Oil-flow headlines and CPI reaction through August 17"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Lower-vol value characteristics and solid domestic activity support relative resilience",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE quality score 0.710 with prior active rank 0.791 and low-vol rank 0.806",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00% and max_drawdown_21s only -1.31%",
"July average hourly earnings +3.2% y/y and services PMI 54.1"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by >1.5% on growth leadership",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth re-acceleration post-CPI leaves value lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and PPI releases August 12-13"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent relative strength continues if CPI is benign",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TECHNOLOGY active_return_5s +3.69% but quality evidence score only 0.128",
"Volatility_21s 35.02% and max_drawdown_21s -10.34%",
"Nasdaq Composite up 5.2% for the week to August 7"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK breaks below recent swing low on hotter inflation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High vol and deep prior drawdown leave room for sharp mean-reversion after strong week",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High quality rank and dividend-oriented profile hold up in data week",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"UNITED_KINGDOM quality evidence score 0.838 highest among many internationals",
"Prior active rank 0.896 and shallow drawdown rank 0.881",
"Europe and UK equities near 52w highs with low recent vol"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "EWU active return turns sharply negative versus SPY",
"option_id": "UNITED_KINGDOM",
"reversal_case": "USD strength or global risk-off hits international equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "U.S. CPI spillover and any sterling moves before August 17"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Short-term bounce extends on risk-on breadth",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS quality score 0.037 lowest tier with prior active rank 0.015",
"Volatility_21s 50.35% and distance_52w_high -12.89%",
"Active_return_5s +4.29% after deep prior_16s_active -10.43%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH fails to hold Friday levels on any growth scare",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme vol and poor quality score favor fade of recent outperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI week risk sentiment"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.2875,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Soft July payrolls and revisions raise recession-scare risk-off that hits equities and commodities together",
"Stronger-than-expected CPI could reverse rate-cut hopes and pressure gold and duration-sensitive value",
"Sudden Hormuz de-escalation would remove energy and gold tailwinds",
"High recent SPY momentum leaves room for mean-reversion after 3.5% weekly gain"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below prior-week low on weak CPI or risk-off after data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core holding given record close and broad positive asset share; no stronger diversified active edge clears hurdle cleanly after labor softness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12 and retail sales August 14"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold reverses more than half of 5-session gain on stronger dollar or risk-on equity melt-up",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Geopolitical oil-flow uncertainty and recent relative strength support short-horizon safe-haven bid above SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz arrangements and any Middle East escalation headlines before August 17"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.95,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent drops sharply on de-escalation news or ENERGY underperforms SPY by >2% mid-week",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "High quality-evidence score plus supply-restriction facts give base case above SPY despite recent pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued Hormuz flow restrictions and Brent price reaction through the week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Value lags as Nasdaq re-accelerates post-CPI",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Strong prior active rank, low vol, and shallow drawdown support modest outperformance versus growth-heavy SPY on data week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI and PPI prints August 12-13 favoring value rotation if inflation cools"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.7375,
"portfolio_rationale": "Core SPY exposure anchored to record levels and positive breadth, overlaid with gold and energy for geopolitics/supply facts and large-value for quality and defensive tilt. All active legs carry base forecasts above SPY and respect the 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "One-week window dominated by CPI/PPI/retail data and unresolved oil-flow risk. Portfolio mixes benchmark beta with higher-base gold, energy, and value while staying inside allocation and cluster rules.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-09-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17440,
"latency_seconds": 50.79487858293578,
"output_tokens": 2416,
"reasoning_tokens": 484,
"total_tokens": 20340
}
} Public model run
Model Portfolios
This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Gold (IAU)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%United Kingdom Equities (EWU)20%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Gold (IAU)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Gold (IAU)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Technology Sector (XLK)20% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Gold (IAU)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)25%Gold (IAU)25%Metals and Mining (XME)20%United Kingdom Equities (EWU)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Energy Sector (XLE)40%United Kingdom Equities (EWU)35%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Gold (IAU)20%Japan Equities (EWJ)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Gold (IAU)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Pricing Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Audit Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 08e33a271550...2517e6f7 |
| manifest.yaml | 1426ed067381...bf40e86b |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | ba4ab086e5ee...e9d35348 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 2a8c66495be8...a19399ac |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 3f744f5f0bfc...b8cc002e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 03175a2b6254...453b2720 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 8197b13ee6a5...909726e1 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 9d6ddad24d70...596e933b |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |