Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.9.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 64.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward defensive equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-17 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260910-weekly
31,968 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- Decision date: 2026-09-10
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-10T04:05:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-10T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-09-10
- Exit date: 2026-09-17
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market briefing — September 10, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-09-10T04:05:00Z. Completed U.S. market session: September 9. No September 10 releases or prices are included. Monthly and quarterly releases below retain their own observation periods and may be revised.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. activity and spending
- BEA, August 26 release, second estimate: second-quarter real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, exports and investment increased; government spending decreased and imports increased.
- BEA, August 26 release, July estimates: personal income rose 0.4% month over month, nominal consumption rose 0.2%, and real consumption increased less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
## Employment and compensation
- BLS, September 4 release, August preliminary estimates: payroll employment increased 162,000 and unemployment remained 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year. June and July payroll changes were revised upward by a combined 55,000.
- BLS, September 9 release, June compensation-cost estimates: civilian employers paid $49.46 per employee hour, including $33.85 in wages and $15.61 in benefits. Private-industry compensation was $46.89 per hour. These are compensation levels, not growth rates.
## U.S. consumer prices
- BLS, August 12 release, July CPI: headline prices rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year; excluding food and energy, increases were 0.2% and 2.5%. Energy prices fell 1.5% on the month but were 14.7% above a year earlier.
- BEA, August 26 release, July PCE prices: headline and food-and-energy-excluded indexes each increased 0.2% month over month; annual increases were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. August CPI and PCE results were not available at the cutoff.
## Monetary policy and traded rates
- Federal Reserve, July 29 decision: the federal-funds target remained 3.50–3.75%; three of twelve voters preferred a quarter-point increase. ECB, July 23 decision: deposit, refinancing and marginal-lending rates remained 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65%. Bank of Canada, September 2 decision: its overnight target remained 2.25%.
- Reuters, September 9 U.S. afternoon market report: the ten-year Treasury yield was quoted at 4.841%, up 3.66 basis points; the dollar index was 98.83, up 0.05%. These are timed market observations, not official daily Treasury par rates.
## Equity closes and breadth
- AP, September 9 closing summary: S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36, down 0.5%; Dow at 52,380.66, down 0.8%; Nasdaq at 26,253.34, down 0.6%; Russell 2000 at 2,921.23, down 1.3%.
- Reuters, September 9 closing report: declining S&P 500 constituents outnumbered advancing constituents by 4.1 to one. U.S. exchange volume was 14.7 billion shares versus a 14.9 billion average over the preceding 20 sessions.
## Energy and precious metals
- Reuters, September 9 report: Brent settled at $101.21 per barrel, up 3.4%; WTI settled at $96.05, up 3.25%. Gold was quoted near $4,396 per ounce, up 0.98%, in the afternoon report; that quote is not a futures settlement.
- EIA, September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecast inputs finalized September 3: projected Brent averages were about $90 in the second half of 2026 and $74 in 2027, conditional on gradually improving Middle East export flows with continuing constraints. EIA forecast October 31 U.S. gas stocks 5% above their five-year average. These forecasts exclude subsequent market events.
## Prices outside the United States
- China's National Bureau of Statistics, September 9 releases, August observations: CPI increased 0.8% year over year and 0.4% month over month; producer factory-gate prices increased 3.8% and 0.4%. Consumer food prices fell 1.4% year over year, while nonfood prices rose 1.2%.
- Eurostat, September 1 flash estimate for August: euro-area annual inflation was estimated at 3.3%, versus 2.9% in July. Energy inflation was estimated at 14.3%, versus 10.3%; services at 3.0%, versus 3.3%. Flash estimates are provisional.
## Scheduled releases and decisions
- Through the September 17 weekly exit, official calendars list August PPI September 10 at 08:30 ET; August CPI September 11 at 08:30; August retail sales and import/export prices September 16 at 08:30; the FOMC meeting September 15–16 with projections; and August housing starts September 17 at 08:30. The ECB's September 9–10 meeting was scheduled to conclude September 10. September 10 events occur after this cutoff and before the planned entry close; none of their results is known here.
- Within the additional period through the October 12 monthly exit, calendars list August new-home sales September 24 at 10:00 ET, durable goods September 25 at 08:30, JOLTS September 29 at 10:00, GDP and August income/PCE September 30, and September U.S. employment and euro-area flash inflation October 2. BEA's annual accounts update begins September 30. These are scheduled events, not outcome forecasts, and dates may change.
The included facts and their ordering express no preference among options. Mechanically supplied historical price and risk evidence is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-10-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-10'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-10T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-96dc9f3d5254
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-10T03:59:31.762672+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-10'
exit_date: '2026-09-17'
created_at: '2026-09-10T03:59:31.762672+00:00'
notes: Fresh direct public-source research for the September 10 session. Mechanical context ends at the September 9 close. Entry uses the September 10 close and exit the September 17 close, five trading sessions later. Prices will be acquired after their respective closes.# Market briefing — September 10, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-09-10T04:05:00Z. Completed U.S. market session: September 9. No September 10 releases or prices are included. Monthly and quarterly releases below retain their own observation periods and may be revised.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. activity and spending
- BEA, August 26 release, second estimate: second-quarter real GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, exports and investment increased; government spending decreased and imports increased.
- BEA, August 26 release, July estimates: personal income rose 0.4% month over month, nominal consumption rose 0.2%, and real consumption increased less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
## Employment and compensation
- BLS, September 4 release, August preliminary estimates: payroll employment increased 162,000 and unemployment remained 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.1% year over year. June and July payroll changes were revised upward by a combined 55,000.
- BLS, September 9 release, June compensation-cost estimates: civilian employers paid $49.46 per employee hour, including $33.85 in wages and $15.61 in benefits. Private-industry compensation was $46.89 per hour. These are compensation levels, not growth rates.
## U.S. consumer prices
- BLS, August 12 release, July CPI: headline prices rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year; excluding food and energy, increases were 0.2% and 2.5%. Energy prices fell 1.5% on the month but were 14.7% above a year earlier.
- BEA, August 26 release, July PCE prices: headline and food-and-energy-excluded indexes each increased 0.2% month over month; annual increases were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively. August CPI and PCE results were not available at the cutoff.
## Monetary policy and traded rates
- Federal Reserve, July 29 decision: the federal-funds target remained 3.50–3.75%; three of twelve voters preferred a quarter-point increase. ECB, July 23 decision: deposit, refinancing and marginal-lending rates remained 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65%. Bank of Canada, September 2 decision: its overnight target remained 2.25%.
- Reuters, September 9 U.S. afternoon market report: the ten-year Treasury yield was quoted at 4.841%, up 3.66 basis points; the dollar index was 98.83, up 0.05%. These are timed market observations, not official daily Treasury par rates.
## Equity closes and breadth
- AP, September 9 closing summary: S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36, down 0.5%; Dow at 52,380.66, down 0.8%; Nasdaq at 26,253.34, down 0.6%; Russell 2000 at 2,921.23, down 1.3%.
- Reuters, September 9 closing report: declining S&P 500 constituents outnumbered advancing constituents by 4.1 to one. U.S. exchange volume was 14.7 billion shares versus a 14.9 billion average over the preceding 20 sessions.
## Energy and precious metals
- Reuters, September 9 report: Brent settled at $101.21 per barrel, up 3.4%; WTI settled at $96.05, up 3.25%. Gold was quoted near $4,396 per ounce, up 0.98%, in the afternoon report; that quote is not a futures settlement.
- EIA, September 9 Short-Term Energy Outlook, forecast inputs finalized September 3: projected Brent averages were about $90 in the second half of 2026 and $74 in 2027, conditional on gradually improving Middle East export flows with continuing constraints. EIA forecast October 31 U.S. gas stocks 5% above their five-year average. These forecasts exclude subsequent market events.
## Prices outside the United States
- China's National Bureau of Statistics, September 9 releases, August observations: CPI increased 0.8% year over year and 0.4% month over month; producer factory-gate prices increased 3.8% and 0.4%. Consumer food prices fell 1.4% year over year, while nonfood prices rose 1.2%.
- Eurostat, September 1 flash estimate for August: euro-area annual inflation was estimated at 3.3%, versus 2.9% in July. Energy inflation was estimated at 14.3%, versus 10.3%; services at 3.0%, versus 3.3%. Flash estimates are provisional.
## Scheduled releases and decisions
- Through the September 17 weekly exit, official calendars list August PPI September 10 at 08:30 ET; August CPI September 11 at 08:30; August retail sales and import/export prices September 16 at 08:30; the FOMC meeting September 15–16 with projections; and August housing starts September 17 at 08:30. The ECB's September 9–10 meeting was scheduled to conclude September 10. September 10 events occur after this cutoff and before the planned entry close; none of their results is known here.
- Within the additional period through the October 12 monthly exit, calendars list August new-home sales September 24 at 10:00 ET, durable goods September 25 at 08:30, JOLTS September 29 at 10:00, GDP and August income/PCE September 30, and September U.S. employment and euro-area flash inflation October 2. BEA's annual accounts update begins September 30. These are scheduled events, not outcome forecasts, and dates may change.
The included facts and their ordering express no preference among options. Mechanically supplied historical price and risk evidence is descriptive context, not a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "2ecf2009b864fa26820d6cff2cef761b04ef4f5f6ab3b4cd9500a3ea5ba062f5",
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "e62a60d82db773118d4dccf32738f3a90f99923c712c21f0a841c3e92f93379e",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "7b51ca649fd3ec621e6016bdd4ac583251f83e3188eecc5f1af2da8a2c0ce638",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "d5de835750c632d153f26eab8553cd7ad4a30c2ab41f077fc3ceaf2900417491",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "c092e97bf81fd7164c2143924cf52ca0ed33e45257f38487522d51b3f80643f7",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-10-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Favor low-beta quality pullbacks (healthcare, staples, dividend) whose recent relative weakness followed strong prior relative trends and lacks any briefing-level negative, positioning defensively against poor breadth, rising yields, and CPI/FOMC event risk. Oil continuation is supported by the Brent shock but priced near highs versus EIA's $90 path; software and defense show persistent relative weakness consistent with deterioration rather than shock; crypto and Korea are too extended and volatile for a one-week event window.
Late-cycle stagflation tone: 10y at 4.84% and rising, Brent above $100, headline CPI 3.4% with a hawkish-leaning Fed into the Sept 15-16 FOMC and Aug CPI on Sept 11. SPY is flat over 5 sessions but breadth is poor (4.1:1 decliners, RSP lagging). Cross-sectional dispersion at 2.3% is ordinary. Defensive and healthcare pullbacks from strong prior relative trends look like mild overreaction candidates; energy-linked continuation is supported by the oil shock but stretched. Crypto and Korea are extended with very high vol into an event-heavy week.
{
"confidence": 0.5567,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A soft August CPI on Sept 11 or dovish FOMC on Sept 16 could spark a growth/beta rally that leaves low-beta defensives lagging SPY",
"Continued rise in 10y yields above 4.84% pressures dividend and staples multiples relative to mega-cap tech",
"Healthcare pullback could reflect unreported sector-specific policy news not in briefing, extending underperformance",
"Oil reversal on improving Middle East export flows would hit energy-linked candidates sharply"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.05% after prior active +3.37%; recent pullback rank 0.985 and prior active rank 0.851",
"Near-zero SPY beta (-0.13) offers insulation into CPI/FOMC event week",
"No sector-specific negative in briefing; quality score 0.747"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.66% versus prior active +1.81%; pullback rank 0.955",
"Negative SPY beta (-0.25) and 15% vol provide defensive profile into event-heavy week",
"Poor breadth (4.1:1 decliners) and rising yields argue for defensive rotation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest equity quality score 0.814; prior active +3.27% and recent active -2.15%",
"Volume z +0.81 on the pullback with only 10.7% vol and -3.18% drawdown",
"Beta 0.08 limits exposure to a growth-led SPY move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +4.85% (rank 0.866), recent active -2.54% on falling volume (z -1.0)",
"32% vol and 10y at 4.84% rising is a headwind for long-duration biotech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $101.21 (+3.4%), USO +19.1% over 21 sessions; -1.95% from 52w high",
"EIA STEO projects Brent ~$90 in H2 2026, implying current price already above baseline path",
"Volume z -0.44 on the surge suggests fading participation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score 0.825; prior active +7.46%, recent -1.74% with volume z +0.82",
"Near-zero SPY correlation; low 11.9% vol limits upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; closed 7,636 down 0.5% with 4.1:1 negative breadth",
"CPI Sept 11 and FOMC Sept 16 fall inside window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +4.02% recent and +5.38% prior with volume z +1.66",
"Commodity tailwind from oil/agriculture, but hawkish Fed and rising UST yields pressure EM"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +2.83 with -2.25% drawdown, unusual for a 3% vol asset",
"10y yield 4.84% rising and hawkish Fed dissenters weigh on duration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"DXY 98.83; UUP -0.82% over 5 sessions despite rising UST yields",
"Very low 5% vol caps excess return either way"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +8.44% recent on top of +9.23% prior; 46% vol and beta 3.38",
"Volume z -0.95 on the rally; still -13% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.18% while semis +5.25% and tech +2.22%: rotation away from software, not a market shock",
"-13.5% from 52w high with 39.6% vol; rising yields hurt long-duration growth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -8.77% and recent -2.75%: persistent downtrend, prior active rank 0.000",
"-13.33% from 52w high, deepest drawdown in slate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.44% last 3 sessions after +22.24% prior active; -37.9% from 52w high",
"45.6% vol into CPI/FOMC with rising real yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.38% then -2.31% recent; 56% vol, highest in universe",
"-48% from 52w high; beta 1.38 into hawkish-leaning FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BIOTECH",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"BRAZIL",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 35,
"DIVIDEND": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Late-cycle stagflation tone: 10y at 4.84% and rising, Brent above $100, headline CPI 3.4% with a hawkish-leaning Fed into the Sept 15-16 FOMC and Aug CPI on Sept 11. SPY is flat over 5 sessions but breadth is poor (4.1:1 decliners, RSP lagging). Cross-sectional dispersion at 2.3% is ordinary. Defensive and healthcare pullbacks from strong prior relative trends look like mild overreaction candidates; energy-linked continuation is supported by the oil shock but stretched. Crypto and Korea are extended with very high vol into an event-heavy week.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor low-beta quality pullbacks (healthcare, staples, dividend) whose recent relative weakness followed strong prior relative trends and lacks any briefing-level negative, positioning defensively against poor breadth, rising yields, and CPI/FOMC event risk. Oil continuation is supported by the Brent shock but priced near highs versus EIA's $90 path; software and defense show persistent relative weakness consistent with deterioration rather than shock; crypto and Korea are too extended and volatile for a one-week event window.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Late-cycle stagflation tone: 10y at 4.84% and rising, Brent above $100, headline CPI 3.4% with a hawkish-leaning Fed into the Sept 15-16 FOMC and Aug CPI on Sept 11. SPY is flat over 5 sessions but breadth is poor (4.1:1 decliners, RSP lagging). Cross-sectional dispersion at 2.3% is ordinary. Defensive and healthcare pullbacks from strong prior relative trends look like mild overreaction candidates; energy-linked continuation is supported by the oil shock but stretched. Crypto and Korea are extended with very high vol into an event-heavy week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28026,
"latency_seconds": 48.622142851003446,
"output_tokens": 3989,
"total_tokens": 32015
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
The strongest evidence-backed reversals are the high-quality defensive equity blocks that gave back sharp relative losses in one window despite strong prior relative trends: healthcare, dividend, and staples all sit in the top quality tier with high recent-pullback ranks, low-to-moderate volatility, and low or negative SPY beta. Into a week containing August CPI, PPI, retail sales, and an FOMC with projections, with inflation re-accelerating and breadth 4-to-1 negative, those exposures offer asymmetric mean-reversion with limited downside versus SPY. Extended winners (Korea, oil) and high-volatility crypto are ranked below the benchmark on stretch and event risk.
Breadth is weak (4.1:1 decliners, RSP -1.4% vs SPY 5-session), inflation is re-accelerating (headline CPI 3.4% y/y, PCE 3.7%, Brent above $100), and the 10-year sits near 4.84% into a September 15-16 FOMC with projections plus August CPI on September 11. That combination argues against duration and against aggressive beta chasing. Defensive equity clusters (healthcare, staples, dividend) sold off sharply in the latest window despite strong prior relative trends, which is the clearest overreaction signature in the slate; energy-linked and Korea strength are already extended into a high-event week.
{
"confidence": 0.5733,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A dovish FOMC or soft August CPI could spark a beta-led rally that leaves low-beta defensives behind",
"Healthcare and staples pullbacks may reflect sector-specific fundamental news not visible in this briefing",
"Continued oil strength above $100 could push inflation expectations higher and pressure rate-sensitive defensive equities",
"Concentration in a single defensive theme means all three positions can move together against SPY",
"One-week horizon leaves little time for mean reversion to complete"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-3.05% active in latest window after +3.37% prior active",
"Quality score 0.747 with 0.985 recent-pullback rank",
"Negative SPY beta (-0.13) offers event-week ballast"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.15% active versus +3.27% prior active trend",
"Highest-tier quality score 0.814 with low 10.7% vol",
"Positive volume z 0.81 into the pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.66% active after +1.81% prior active",
"Quality score 0.728, recent-pullback rank 0.955",
"Beta -0.26 to SPY, defensive in weak-breadth tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Top quality score 0.825 with only 11.9% vol",
"+7.46% prior active, mild -1.74% recent give-back",
"Volume z 0.82"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.54% active after +4.85% prior active",
"32.4% vol and negative volume z -1.00",
"Quality score 0.712"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"DXY 98.83, 10-year 4.841% up 3.7bp",
"Very low 5.15% vol, quality 0.797",
"Three FOMC voters preferred a hike in July"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.83, largest dislocation in slate",
"3.19% vol but -2.25% 21s drawdown",
"Sticky 3.4% CPI limits duration rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, S&P 500 closed 7,636.36",
"-1.99% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.18% active, 39.6% vol, -13.5% from 52-week high",
"Negative volume z -0.58 on the decline",
"Rate backdrop with 10-year at 4.84% pressures long-duration growth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+4.02% active with volume z 1.66",
"25.7% vol, -7.9% from high",
"Commodity strength supportive but already priced"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $101.21 up 3.4%; USO +19.1% over 21 sessions",
"EIA STEO projects Brent near $90 in 2H2026, below spot",
"34% vol, near 52-week high leaves little cushion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+8.44% active in latest window, beta 3.38",
"46% vol, worst recent-pullback rank 0.000",
"Volume z -0.95 on the advance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-8.77% prior active plus -2.75% recent active",
"-13.33% drawdown, worst prior-trend rank 0.000",
"Quality score 0.334"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.44% 3-session return, 45.6% vol",
"-37.9% from 52-week high despite +22.2% prior active",
"Event-heavy week with FOMC raises liquidity risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"56.4% vol, highest in slate",
"-48.1% from 52-week high",
"Beta 1.38 to SPY in weak-breadth tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BIOTECH",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"BRAZIL",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 30,
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Breadth is weak (4.1:1 decliners, RSP -1.4% vs SPY 5-session), inflation is re-accelerating (headline CPI 3.4% y/y, PCE 3.7%, Brent above $100), and the 10-year sits near 4.84% into a September 15-16 FOMC with projections plus August CPI on September 11. That combination argues against duration and against aggressive beta chasing. Defensive equity clusters (healthcare, staples, dividend) sold off sharply in the latest window despite strong prior relative trends, which is the clearest overreaction signature in the slate; energy-linked and Korea strength are already extended into a high-event week.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The strongest evidence-backed reversals are the high-quality defensive equity blocks that gave back sharp relative losses in one window despite strong prior relative trends: healthcare, dividend, and staples all sit in the top quality tier with high recent-pullback ranks, low-to-moderate volatility, and low or negative SPY beta. Into a week containing August CPI, PPI, retail sales, and an FOMC with projections, with inflation re-accelerating and breadth 4-to-1 negative, those exposures offer asymmetric mean-reversion with limited downside versus SPY. Extended winners (Korea, oil) and high-volatility crypto are ranked below the benchmark on stretch and event risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is weak (4.1:1 decliners, RSP -1.4% vs SPY 5-session), inflation is re-accelerating (headline CPI 3.4% y/y, PCE 3.7%, Brent above $100), and the 10-year sits near 4.84% into a September 15-16 FOMC with projections plus August CPI on September 11. That combination argues against duration and against aggressive beta chasing. Defensive equity clusters (healthcare, staples, dividend) sold off sharply in the latest window despite strong prior relative trends, which is the clearest overreaction signature in the slate; energy-linked and Korea strength are already extended into a high-event week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28018,
"latency_seconds": 44.43036259606015,
"output_tokens": 3827,
"total_tokens": 31845
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks, interpreting these as overreactions. Software, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples offer a mix of growth and defensive characteristics with strong prior trends.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in equities and strength in commodities like oil. Inflation data and upcoming central bank meetings are key drivers.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation data surprises could negatively impact equity valuations.",
"Upcoming central bank meetings may introduce volatility if policy expectations shift."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.79% with a high quality score of 0.690.",
"Prior active rank of 0.821 suggests strong preceding trend."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.86% with a high quality score of 0.747.",
"Prior active rank of 0.851 indicates strong prior performance."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.59% with a quality score of 0.728.",
"Defensive sector characteristics may appeal in a mixed market."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 5.55% and prior active return of 13.43%.",
"EIA forecasts Brent averages around $90 in the second half of 2026."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 5.66% and prior active return of 9.23%.",
"High volatility of 45.97% indicates potential for large moves."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.82% with a high quality score of 0.814.",
"Low volatility of 10.68% provides defensive characteristics."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.31% with a high quality score of 0.825.",
"Prior active return of 7.46% shows underlying strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.11% with a quality score of 0.797.",
"Low volatility of 5.15%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 2.83 indicates significant recent trading activity.",
"Low volatility of 3.19%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 1.66.",
"Recent return of -0.16%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.89% and prior active return of -8.77%.",
"Low quality score of 0.334."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.04%.",
"High volatility of 32.44%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.31% despite strong prior active return of 30.38%.",
"Very high volatility of 56.36%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.44% with prior active return of 22.24%.",
"High volatility of 45.57%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option.",
"Recent return of -1.39%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BIOTECH",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"BRAZIL",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SOFTWARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in equities and strength in commodities like oil. Inflation data and upcoming central bank meetings are key drivers.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks, interpreting these as overreactions. Software, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples offer a mix of growth and defensive characteristics with strong prior trends.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in equities and strength in commodities like oil. Inflation data and upcoming central bank meetings are key drivers.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19194,
"latency_seconds": 24.138815699028783,
"output_tokens": 3238,
"total_tokens": 22432
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Healthcare and dividend equities offer the clearest modest defensive reversal cases, combining prior relative strength with meaningful pullbacks and macro support. The dollar's pullback contrasts with persistent inflation and hawkish policy risk. These judgments narrowly clear the eligibility threshold rather than implying strong conviction. Oil has independent continuation support but is not an overreaction candidate; high-volatility winners lack sufficient independent confirmation.
Cross-sectional dispersion of 2.30%, weak equal-weight breadth, and sharp sector divergences favor selective judgments rather than broad momentum extrapolation. Slowing real consumption supports defensive exposures, while elevated inflation, rising Treasury yields, and the September 15–16 FOMC create substantial two-sided event risk. Selected defensive pullbacks have modest reversal potential; oil has independent supply support but considerable reversal risk. PPI and the ECB decision precede the entry close and are not assumed to generate post-entry gains.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A benign CPI release or dovish FOMC could lift growth equities and weaken the dollar, hurting all three leading relative-return judgments.",
"A hawkish rate shock could pressure dividend valuations and healthcare alongside the broader equity market.",
"Healthcare weakness may reflect sector-specific information absent from the briefing; low selling volume is not proof of temporary overreaction.",
"Changes in Middle East export flows could sharply reverse oil and inflation expectations before the exit.",
"PPI and ECB outcomes occur before the entry close and may materially change the starting prices and opportunity set."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.05% follows prior active strength of 3.37%; quality evidence score is 0.747.",
"Volume z-score of -0.65 does not indicate unusually heavy selling, although it does not establish capitulation.",
"Real consumption grew less than 0.1% in July, providing a defensive-demand rationale; no sector-specific deterioration is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.65,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.15% partially reverses prior active strength of 3.27%; quality score is 0.814.",
"Volatility is 10.68% and drawdown is 3.18%, substantially below the most volatile shock candidates.",
"Slowing GDP and nearly flat real consumption support mature defensive equity exposure, though rising yields compete with dividends."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -0.90% follows prior active return of 1.70%, with quality score 0.797.",
"The ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.841%; three July FOMC voters preferred a rate increase.",
"The FOMC and CPI fall within the holding window; persistent inflation offers a plausible relative-rate reversal mechanism."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EIA's outlook explicitly retains Middle East export constraints, independently supporting current strength.",
"Recent active gain of 6.28% and prior gain of 13.43% leave substantial reversal exposure.",
"Brent settled at $101.21 versus EIA's conditional second-half average forecast near $90."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.66% follows prior active strength of 1.81%, with quality score 0.728.",
"Nearly flat real consumption supports essential-goods defensiveness.",
"Elevated energy prices and a 3.0% saving rate complicate the margin and consumer-demand outlook."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.825 combines prior active strength of 7.46% with a recent active pullback of 1.74%.",
"Drawdown is only 2.17% and SPY correlation is 0.04.",
"No crop, weather, or inventory catalyst is supplied; China's consumer food prices fell 1.4% year over year."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 4.85% exceeds the recent active loss of 2.54%.",
"Volume z-score is -1.00, but volatility is 32.44% and drawdown is 6.00%.",
"No clinical or transaction catalyst is supplied, while the FOMC can change financing conditions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark, so its excess return is identically zero.",
"Payroll growth of 162,000 and upward revisions support activity, while September 9 breadth was 4.1 decliners per advancer."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength of 4.02% accompanies a volume z-score of 1.66.",
"Commodity sensitivity offers some connection to energy strength, but no Brazil-specific policy or earnings catalyst is supplied.",
"Volatility of 25.68% and currency exposure limit confidence around the FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 2.83 accompanies a recent active loss of 0.90%.",
"Volatility is only 3.19%, but rising Treasury yields provide a rational explanation for bond weakness.",
"No evidence identifies temporary forced selling or an imminent municipal-specific recovery catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The largest recent active loss, 4.18%, follows positive prior active return of 2.57%, warranting a reversal test.",
"Volatility is 39.58%, drawdown is 7.70%, and the fund is 13.53% below its 52-week high.",
"Rising yields and the forthcoming FOMC provide a plausible valuation headwind; no software-specific fundamental support is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 22.24% remains accompanied by positive five-session active return of 1.13%, despite the three-session decline.",
"Volatility is 45.57%; no digital-asset flow or regulatory catalyst is supplied.",
"CPI and the FOMC introduce liquidity and risk-appetite uncertainty."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active gain of 30.38% is not accompanied by network, flow, or regulatory evidence supporting continuation.",
"Volatility is 56.36%, the highest in the slate, and distance from the 52-week high is -48.09%.",
"Recent five-session active return remains positive at 1.84%, weakening the extreme-relative-loser reversal case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.75% extends prior active weakness of 8.77%, rather than interrupting a strong trend.",
"Drawdown is 13.33% and quality score is only 0.334.",
"No defense-budget, aircraft-order, or earnings evidence establishes either a recovery catalyst or confirmed fundamental deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.45,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength of 8.44% follows prior strength of 9.23%, but no semiconductor or export catalyst is supplied.",
"Volume z-score is -0.95, offering no strong participation confirmation.",
"Volatility is 45.97% and SPY beta is 3.38, making the inflation and FOMC window especially consequential."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BIOTECH",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"BRAZIL",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"US_DOLLAR": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional dispersion of 2.30%, weak equal-weight breadth, and sharp sector divergences favor selective judgments rather than broad momentum extrapolation. Slowing real consumption supports defensive exposures, while elevated inflation, rising Treasury yields, and the September 15–16 FOMC create substantial two-sided event risk. Selected defensive pullbacks have modest reversal potential; oil has independent supply support but considerable reversal risk. PPI and the ECB decision precede the entry close and are not assumed to generate post-entry gains.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Healthcare and dividend equities offer the clearest modest defensive reversal cases, combining prior relative strength with meaningful pullbacks and macro support. The dollar's pullback contrasts with persistent inflation and hawkish policy risk. These judgments narrowly clear the eligibility threshold rather than implying strong conviction. Oil has independent continuation support but is not an overreaction candidate; high-volatility winners lack sufficient independent confirmation.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional dispersion of 2.30%, weak equal-weight breadth, and sharp sector divergences favor selective judgments rather than broad momentum extrapolation. Slowing real consumption supports defensive exposures, while elevated inflation, rising Treasury yields, and the September 15–16 FOMC create substantial two-sided event risk. Selected defensive pullbacks have modest reversal potential; oil has independent supply support but considerable reversal risk. PPI and the ECB decision precede the entry close and are not assumed to generate post-entry gains.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15985,
"latency_seconds": 58.538951191003434,
"output_tokens": 3508,
"reasoning_tokens": 96,
"total_tokens": 19493
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Commodity continuation and benchmark stability prioritized over reversal candidates lacking 55% threshold support.
Commodity strength and equity sector pullbacks amid stable macro data and upcoming policy events create mixed one-week signals.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Upcoming FOMC and CPI releases",
"Oil price volatility from geopolitical factors",
"Equity breadth deterioration"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"WTI settled at $96.05 up 3.25%",
"Brent settled at $101.21 up 3.4%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return 8.44%",
"Prior active 9.23%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 0.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.825"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.814"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.797"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.83"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.66"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.86%",
"Quality evidence score 0.747"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -2.59%",
"Quality evidence score 0.728"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.04%",
"Quality evidence score 0.712"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -4.79%",
"Quality evidence score 0.690"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
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"p_top3_pct": 18,
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{
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"Quality evidence score 0.334"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
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{
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
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"mechanism": "no_edge",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
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],
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"deterministic_allocation": {
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},
{
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"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
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},
{
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"rank": 10,
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},
{
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},
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"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
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},
{
"eligible": false,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
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"rank": 14,
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"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
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"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
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"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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}
],
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"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
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},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Commodity strength and equity sector pullbacks amid stable macro data and upcoming policy events create mixed one-week signals.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"SP500"
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}
},
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{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
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"replicate_count": 1,
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}xai-grok-4-5
Quality defensive pullbacks in healthcare, dividend, and staples show the cleanest overreaction profiles with prior strength and lower beta; limited high-conviction edges overall favor benchmark dominance outside those three.
Weak breadth and mild SPY pullback with upcoming CPI/FOMC create mixed setup; quality pullbacks in defensives offer selective reversal potential while oil/Korea show short-term strength but elevated risk.
{
"confidence": 0.5933,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI and FOMC projections mid-window can reverse rate-sensitive and defensive flows",
"Oil continuation fails if Middle East supply assumptions shift",
"Elevated single-name/sector vol in software biotech Korea crypto amplifies gap risk",
"Weak equity breadth persists into retail sales data"
],
"metadata": {
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{
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},
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"quality score 0.690 with top pullback rank",
"elevated horizon vol 39.58%"
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
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"evidence": [
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"Brent/WTI settlement gains >3%",
"negative SPY corr"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"prior active +5.38% with recent active +4.02%",
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],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
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"mechanism": "catalyst",
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],
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"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"low vol 5.15%",
"recent near-flat vs mild SPY decline"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
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"rank": 9,
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"very low vol 3.19%",
"quality 0.648"
],
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"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"quality score only 0.334",
"max drawdown -13.33%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
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"shock_reversal"
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"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +5.66% active +8.44%",
"strong prior active +9.23%",
"high vol 45.97% and beta 3.38"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
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"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -4.44% despite prior active +22.24%",
"horizon vol 45.57%",
"distance to 52w high -37.87%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -2.31% after extreme prior active +30.38%",
"vol 56.36% highest",
"52w distance -48.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with recent -1.39%",
"breadth 4.1 decliners per advancer",
"horizon vol 8.24%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
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"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BIOTECH",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"BRAZIL",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 30,
"DIVIDEND": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
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"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
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"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Weak breadth and mild SPY pullback with upcoming CPI/FOMC create mixed setup; quality pullbacks in defensives offer selective reversal potential while oil/Korea show short-term strength but elevated risk.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"DIVIDEND",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
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"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-10-1W",
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}xai-grok-4-6
The only candidates with a fair one-week reversal case versus SPY are quality pullbacks in healthcare, staples, and dividend equities after a broad down-breadth session. High-vol continuation names (oil, Korea, crypto) already ran and face event-week mean reversion; aerospace looks like deterioration rather than a shock bounce. Event density (CPI, FOMC) still favors defaulting unused slots to SPY.
SPY is modestly weaker with 4.1-to-1 declining breadth into a CPI and FOMC week; oil and Korea show continuation while several quality defensives and software show short-horizon pullbacks. One-week edge versus SPY is limited by event risk and only moderate 5-session active-return dispersion.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI on September 11 and FOMC September 15-16 can dominate the entire close-to-close week.",
"Oil at $96-$101 WTI/Brent can reverse if EIA-style supply-normalization views reassert.",
"Software and biotech remain high-vol with betas that can underperform if rates stay elevated at a 4.84% 10-year."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly recent return -3.86% with prior active +3.37% and quality evidence score 0.747.",
"SPY correlation -0.09 and beta -0.13 versus a 4.1-to-1 declining S&P 500 session.",
"Horizon vol 19.98% with max drawdown -5.18% and 52-week distance -5.18%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly recent return -2.59% after prior active +1.81% and quality evidence score 0.728.",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.19 and beta -0.25 in a weak-breadth tape.",
"Horizon vol 15.12% with drawdown -5.03%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.814 with recent active -2.15% after prior active +3.27%.",
"Horizon vol 10.68% and max drawdown -3.18% with volume z 0.81.",
"Low SPY beta 0.08 versus SPY weekly -1.39%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -4.79% and recent active -4.18% after prior active +2.57%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.690 but horizon vol 39.58% and beta 1.20.",
"Distance to 52-week high -13.53% with volume z -0.58."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.04% and recent active -2.54% after prior active +4.85%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.712 with horizon vol 32.44%.",
"Volume z -1.00 and SPY beta 0.65."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score on the slate at 0.825 with recent return only -0.31%.",
"Horizon vol 11.94% and max drawdown -2.17%.",
"Near-zero SPY beta 0.04 and volume z 0.82."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.797 with weekly return -0.11% and horizon vol 5.15%.",
"Reuters afternoon quote had the dollar index at 98.83, up 0.05%.",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.34."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY weekly return -1.39% with horizon vol 8.24% and 52-week distance -1.99%.",
"S&P 500 closed 7636.36, down 0.5%, with decliners outnumbering advancers 4.1 to 1.",
"CPI September 11 and FOMC September 15-16 sit inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.83 with weekly return -0.50% and horizon vol 3.19%.",
"Ten-year yield quoted at 4.841%, up 3.66 bp on September 9.",
"Quality evidence score 0.648."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +4.02% and prior active +5.38% with volume z 1.66.",
"Weekly return only -0.16% versus SPY -1.39%.",
"Horizon vol 25.68% and quality score 0.496."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return +5.55% and recent active +6.28% after prior active +13.43%.",
"Brent settled $101.21, up 3.4%; WTI $96.05, up 3.25%.",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.42 but EIA projected Brent about $90 in H2 2026."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +22.24% with recent active still +1.13% despite weekly -4.44%.",
"Horizon vol 45.57% and 52-week distance -37.87%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.572."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.38% with recent active +1.84% and weekly -2.31%.",
"Horizon vol 56.36% and 52-week distance -48.09%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.540."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return +5.66% and recent active +8.44% after prior active +9.23%.",
"Horizon vol 45.97%, beta 3.38, volume z -0.95.",
"Quality evidence score 0.438 with recent pullback rank 0.000."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active already -8.77% with weekly -2.89% and max drawdown -13.33%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.334 with prior active rank 0.000.",
"Horizon vol 19.28% and 52-week distance -13.33%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"BIOTECH",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"AGRICULTURE",
"DIVIDEND",
"US_DOLLAR",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"BRAZIL",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CONSUMER_STAPLES": 35,
"DIVIDEND": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"DIVIDEND"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is modestly weaker with 4.1-to-1 declining breadth into a CPI and FOMC week; oil and Korea show continuation while several quality defensives and software show short-horizon pullbacks. One-week edge versus SPY is limited by event risk and only moderate 5-session active-return dispersion.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"DIVIDEND"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The only candidates with a fair one-week reversal case versus SPY are quality pullbacks in healthcare, staples, and dividend equities after a broad down-breadth session. High-vol continuation names (oil, Korea, crypto) already ran and face event-week mean reversion; aerospace looks like deterioration rather than a shock bounce. Event density (CPI, FOMC) still favors defaulting unused slots to SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is modestly weaker with 4.1-to-1 declining breadth into a CPI and FOMC week; oil and Korea show continuation while several quality defensives and software show short-horizon pullbacks. One-week edge versus SPY is limited by event risk and only moderate 5-session active-return dispersion.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-10-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17366,
"latency_seconds": 45.92650378192775,
"output_tokens": 2878,
"reasoning_tokens": 553,
"total_tokens": 20797
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Software (IGV)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%US Dollar (UUP)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 079784000fb1...e7571314 |
| manifest.yaml | 2ecf2009b864...5ba062f5 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 356c991c0e12...906fda5c |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | e62a60d82db7...2f93379e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 7b51ca649fd3...2c0ce638 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | d5de835750c6...00417491 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 979a626bce6a...bb97ecdf |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | c092e97bf81f...f80643f7 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |