Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 67.8 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-26 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260819-weekly
35,113 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Metals and Mining (XME)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-19
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-19T05:46:01Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-19T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-19
- Exit date: 2026-08-26
- Entry rule: Use the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Wednesday, August 26, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Portfolio V3 Briefing — 2026-08-19
Research cutoff: 2026-08-19 05:46 UTC (01:46 EDT). The scoring windows begin at the August 19 U.S. market close. The weekly window ends at the August 26 close; the monthly window ends at the September 18 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. inflation and income
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months.
- BLS reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July and rose 4.7% over 12 months. July PPI values are preliminary.
- BLS reported that U.S. import prices fell 0.4% in July and export prices fell 1.3%. These price indexes exclude duties and can be revised.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index fell 0.1% in June and was 3.7% above June 2025. Personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2%, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3%, and the personal saving rate was 2.7%. These estimates are subject to revision.
## U.S. labor, growth, and business activity
- BLS reported that total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate was 4.1% and the labor-force participation rate was 61.4%. May and June payroll changes were revised down by a combined 103,000. Payroll estimates remain subject to monthly and annual benchmark revision.
- BEA's advance estimate placed second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate, after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate. The second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- ISM's July Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, with production at 58.5, new orders at 56.7, employment at 52.8, and prices at 71.1.
- ISM's July Services PMI was 54.1, with business activity at 59.1, new orders at 57.2, employment at 47.4, and prices at 70.3.
- The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2% in July. Total industrial production was 1.1% above its July 2025 level. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. July values are preliminary.
## Consumer and housing data
- Census reported July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline fell 0.2%. The headline monthly change has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval.
- Census reported second-quarter retail e-commerce sales of $340.2 billion, up 3.8% from the first quarter and 12.2% from a year earlier. E-commerce represented 17.1% of total retail sales. The quarter-over-quarter e-commerce estimate has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval; the year-over-year estimate has a ±0.9 percentage-point interval.
- Census and HUD reported July housing starts at a 1.239 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from revised June and 13.5% from July 2025. The monthly change has a ±9.5 percentage-point confidence interval. Building permits were 1.443 million, up 5.0% from revised June and 3.1% from a year earlier. Housing completions were 1.212 million.
- The National Association of Realtors reported July existing-home sales at a 4.06 million annual rate, down 1.7% from June and up 0.7% from a year earlier. The median price was $434,100, up 2.0% over 12 months, and inventory was 1.54 million units.
- NAR reported that July pending home sales fell 2.3% from June and 2.2% from July 2025. Pending contracts do not always become completed sales.
- Home Depot reported fiscal-second-quarter sales of $47.86 billion and U.S. comparable-sales growth of 1.3%. It maintained fiscal-2026 total-sales growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.5%; that guidance is a company forecast.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
- The July FOMC statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace.
- U.S. Treasury's August 18 indicative par-yield curve was 3.86% at 3 months, 3.99% at 1 year, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.37% at 5 years, 4.71% at 10 years, and 5.28% at 30 years. These are Treasury-derived indicative par yields, not transaction prices.
## Completed August 18 U.S. market session
- Vendor daily histories recorded an August 18 S&P 500 close of 7,691.76, down 0.69%; a Nasdaq-100 close of 29,490.96, down 1.68%; a Russell 2000 close of 3,017.89, down 1.30%; and a Dow Jones Industrial Average close of 53,343.40, down 0.22%.
- Four of eleven Select Sector SPDR index proxies had positive August 18 returns and seven had negative returns. This is a sector-proxy count, not a security-level advance/decline statistic.
- The VIX closed at 15.84 on August 18, up 4.28% on the day. Vendor histories recorded front-month WTI crude at 84.94, front-month gold at 4,366.00, and the U.S. Dollar Index future at 99.65. Futures trade outside regular equity hours and continuous-history rolls can affect values.
## Non-U.S. datapoints
- Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate placed second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% from the first quarter in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU. The respective year-over-year rates were 1.0% and 1.2%. The estimates are revisable.
- Japan's Cabinet Office preliminary estimate placed April–June real GDP growth at 0.3% from the prior quarter and 1.1% at an annual rate. A second preliminary estimate is scheduled for September 8.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a July manufacturing PMI of 49.2, down from 50.3 in June. The production subindex was 49.9 and new orders were 48.5.
## Scheduled events through the weekly close
All times are Eastern. Scheduled items are not known outcomes.
- August 19: Target's fiscal-second-quarter call at 8:00 a.m.; Lowe's fiscal-second-quarter call at 9:00 a.m.; July FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m.
- August 20: Walmart fiscal-second-quarter results at 8:00 a.m.; Census advance second-quarter services report at 10:00 a.m.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
- August 25: July new-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- August 26 before the weekly exit close: July advance durable-goods orders at 8:30 a.m.; second-quarter GDP second estimate, corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.
- NVIDIA scheduled its fiscal-second-quarter results for approximately 4:20 p.m. on August 26 and its call for 5:00 p.m., after the regular equity close.
## Additional scheduled events through the September 18 monthly close
- August 27: July advance economic indicators at 8:30 a.m.
- August 28: first-quarter county employment and wages and the preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark revision at 10:00 a.m.
- September 1: August Manufacturing PMI, July JOLTS, and July construction spending at 10:00 a.m.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.
- September 3: July international trade at 8:30 a.m. and August Services PMI at 10:00 a.m.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m.
- September 7: U.S. Labor Day market holiday.
- September 8: Japan's second preliminary estimate of April–June GDP.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. and August existing-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting; the September 16 statement and Summary of Economic Projections are scheduled for 2:00 p.m., followed by a press conference.
- September 16: August retail sales and import/export prices at 8:30 a.m.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m.; August pending home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 18: August industrial production at 9:15 a.m.; August state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
All values above are fixed to the stated research cutoff. Preliminary and survey-based values retain the statuses and uncertainty stated by their publishers. The briefing does not supply an expected-return conclusion; the complete mechanical artifacts that follow provide descriptive historical context only and are not forecasts.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-19-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-19'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-19T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-19T05:55:47.217872+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Wednesday, August 26, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-19'
exit_date: '2026-08-26'
created_at: '2026-08-19T05:55:47.217872+00:00'
notes: Fresh August 19, 2026 weekly Portfolio V3.0 production round. Research cutoff 2026-08-19T05:46:01Z. Entry and exit use official close prices. Claude Opus 4.8 retirement is forward-only and this manifest freezes the seven-model successor roster.# CapitalBench Portfolio V3 Briefing — 2026-08-19
Research cutoff: 2026-08-19 05:46 UTC (01:46 EDT). The scoring windows begin at the August 19 U.S. market close. The weekly window ends at the August 26 close; the monthly window ends at the September 18 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. inflation and income
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months.
- BLS reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July and rose 4.7% over 12 months. July PPI values are preliminary.
- BLS reported that U.S. import prices fell 0.4% in July and export prices fell 1.3%. These price indexes exclude duties and can be revised.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index fell 0.1% in June and was 3.7% above June 2025. Personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2%, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3%, and the personal saving rate was 2.7%. These estimates are subject to revision.
## U.S. labor, growth, and business activity
- BLS reported that total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate was 4.1% and the labor-force participation rate was 61.4%. May and June payroll changes were revised down by a combined 103,000. Payroll estimates remain subject to monthly and annual benchmark revision.
- BEA's advance estimate placed second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate, after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate. The second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- ISM's July Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, with production at 58.5, new orders at 56.7, employment at 52.8, and prices at 71.1.
- ISM's July Services PMI was 54.1, with business activity at 59.1, new orders at 57.2, employment at 47.4, and prices at 70.3.
- The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2% in July. Total industrial production was 1.1% above its July 2025 level. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. July values are preliminary.
## Consumer and housing data
- Census reported July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline fell 0.2%. The headline monthly change has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval.
- Census reported second-quarter retail e-commerce sales of $340.2 billion, up 3.8% from the first quarter and 12.2% from a year earlier. E-commerce represented 17.1% of total retail sales. The quarter-over-quarter e-commerce estimate has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval; the year-over-year estimate has a ±0.9 percentage-point interval.
- Census and HUD reported July housing starts at a 1.239 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from revised June and 13.5% from July 2025. The monthly change has a ±9.5 percentage-point confidence interval. Building permits were 1.443 million, up 5.0% from revised June and 3.1% from a year earlier. Housing completions were 1.212 million.
- The National Association of Realtors reported July existing-home sales at a 4.06 million annual rate, down 1.7% from June and up 0.7% from a year earlier. The median price was $434,100, up 2.0% over 12 months, and inventory was 1.54 million units.
- NAR reported that July pending home sales fell 2.3% from June and 2.2% from July 2025. Pending contracts do not always become completed sales.
- Home Depot reported fiscal-second-quarter sales of $47.86 billion and U.S. comparable-sales growth of 1.3%. It maintained fiscal-2026 total-sales growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.5%; that guidance is a company forecast.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
- The July FOMC statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace.
- U.S. Treasury's August 18 indicative par-yield curve was 3.86% at 3 months, 3.99% at 1 year, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.37% at 5 years, 4.71% at 10 years, and 5.28% at 30 years. These are Treasury-derived indicative par yields, not transaction prices.
## Completed August 18 U.S. market session
- Vendor daily histories recorded an August 18 S&P 500 close of 7,691.76, down 0.69%; a Nasdaq-100 close of 29,490.96, down 1.68%; a Russell 2000 close of 3,017.89, down 1.30%; and a Dow Jones Industrial Average close of 53,343.40, down 0.22%.
- Four of eleven Select Sector SPDR index proxies had positive August 18 returns and seven had negative returns. This is a sector-proxy count, not a security-level advance/decline statistic.
- The VIX closed at 15.84 on August 18, up 4.28% on the day. Vendor histories recorded front-month WTI crude at 84.94, front-month gold at 4,366.00, and the U.S. Dollar Index future at 99.65. Futures trade outside regular equity hours and continuous-history rolls can affect values.
## Non-U.S. datapoints
- Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate placed second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% from the first quarter in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU. The respective year-over-year rates were 1.0% and 1.2%. The estimates are revisable.
- Japan's Cabinet Office preliminary estimate placed April–June real GDP growth at 0.3% from the prior quarter and 1.1% at an annual rate. A second preliminary estimate is scheduled for September 8.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a July manufacturing PMI of 49.2, down from 50.3 in June. The production subindex was 49.9 and new orders were 48.5.
## Scheduled events through the weekly close
All times are Eastern. Scheduled items are not known outcomes.
- August 19: Target's fiscal-second-quarter call at 8:00 a.m.; Lowe's fiscal-second-quarter call at 9:00 a.m.; July FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m.
- August 20: Walmart fiscal-second-quarter results at 8:00 a.m.; Census advance second-quarter services report at 10:00 a.m.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
- August 25: July new-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- August 26 before the weekly exit close: July advance durable-goods orders at 8:30 a.m.; second-quarter GDP second estimate, corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.
- NVIDIA scheduled its fiscal-second-quarter results for approximately 4:20 p.m. on August 26 and its call for 5:00 p.m., after the regular equity close.
## Additional scheduled events through the September 18 monthly close
- August 27: July advance economic indicators at 8:30 a.m.
- August 28: first-quarter county employment and wages and the preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark revision at 10:00 a.m.
- September 1: August Manufacturing PMI, July JOLTS, and July construction spending at 10:00 a.m.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.
- September 3: July international trade at 8:30 a.m. and August Services PMI at 10:00 a.m.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m.
- September 7: U.S. Labor Day market holiday.
- September 8: Japan's second preliminary estimate of April–June GDP.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. and August existing-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting; the September 16 statement and Summary of Economic Projections are scheduled for 2:00 p.m., followed by a press conference.
- September 16: August retail sales and import/export prices at 8:30 a.m.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m.; August pending home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 18: August industrial production at 9:15 a.m.; August state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
All values above are fixed to the stated research cutoff. Preliminary and survey-based values retain the statuses and uncertainty stated by their publishers. The briefing does not supply an expected-return conclusion; the complete mechanical artifacts that follow provide descriptive historical context only and are not forecasts.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "64450a1f3c7aea790b332c55307b7bf8c85ff875eeda33d9ce6144ccfc8a96e2",
"manifest.yaml": "e7873c138b57bbb6c3b9fb90280d9bf35f7a3c69178d01348587b48d9f9a276d",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "b5dcd8aba46857809781f0bc9f5f76b1c431027856a21739350b59c5140b0e52",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "1257aa4086ca60cbe849062a83c6cf163711ec393a1fa2a94aadc04bcf074efe",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "9576888322ebc27e69e032634f086191c77414776517c411dc5ec98251db11de",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "2ab39680ffa83b7c499b361da32a7279cac367a8ae6e2a9beadfe811435af1b4",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "77074d33bdc58984bff4771196394793b428d2bd2032215679566cb4897cb00e",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "706e7ec209263bf9cd41ef93c53d5f77d0fb84deaefafa048a18c8794ecfd5fe",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Ranked highest the candidates combining a strong pre-pullback relative uptrend with a sharp recent dislocation: metals/mining (+16.7% prior active), silver (+11%), and cybersecurity (+4.4%), all with top quality scores, interpreting recent weakness as overreaction within intact trends. Avoided solar (persistent weakness), oil (extreme vol), and stretched energy continuation.
SPY fell 0.4% over five sessions with only 39% of assets positive short-term but 71% positive over a month, indicating a shallow pullback within an uptrend. Strong prior relative-strength names that pulled back sharply (metals/mining, silver, cybersecurity) look like temporary dislocations rather than deterioration; macro data (ISM 55.6, contained CPI) does not support a regime break.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Precious/industrial metals could extend their pullback if the dollar strengthens or FOMC minutes read hawkish",
"China manufacturing PMI at 49.2 could pressure metals demand further",
"High-beta tech (cybersecurity, software) could fall further into NVIDIA earnings positioning",
"Aug 26 GDP second estimate and durable goods land on exit day and could add volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +16.72%, strongest in slate, versus -3.16% recent active pullback",
"Top quality evidence score 0.781 with 1.000 prior active rank",
"Gold near highs (+8.4% 21s) supports mining fundamentals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +11.01% with only -1.49% recent pullback",
"Quality score 0.763; precious metals uptrend intact (gold +8.44% over 21 sessions)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior +4.35% active trend against -2.08% recent pullback; quality score 0.755",
"Only -4.66% from 52w high, modest drawdown -5.02%",
"Low SPY beta relative to other tech pullbacks"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior +7.93% active with -1.48% recent pullback",
"High vol 35% and NVIDIA earnings after exit close limits catalyst benefit"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.781; -2.34% recent active after +2.58% prior trend",
"Only -2.74% from 52w high with moderate 19% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Mild -2.18% active pullback but China manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2, weakening demand support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+4.92% recent active, at 52w high, WTI at 84.94",
"Short-term momentum but stretched after strong week; mean-reversion risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.03% prior active trend, -0.42% from 52w high, but no in-window catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.34% over recent window with VIX at 15.84"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Small -0.74% active move, volume z -1.60, no distinct catalyst before exit"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+4.50% recent but 64% vol and -17.6% max drawdown; negative quality score 0.188"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.97% recent active on top of -3.82% prior weak trend, -32.5% from 52w high",
"No positive prior trend to revert to; weak quality 0.449"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 30,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "reversal",
"market_rationale": "SPY fell 0.4% over five sessions with only 39% of assets positive short-term but 71% positive over a month, indicating a shallow pullback within an uptrend. Strong prior relative-strength names that pulled back sharply (metals/mining, silver, cybersecurity) look like temporary dislocations rather than deterioration; macro data (ISM 55.6, contained CPI) does not support a regime break.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Ranked highest the candidates combining a strong pre-pullback relative uptrend with a sharp recent dislocation: metals/mining (+16.7% prior active), silver (+11%), and cybersecurity (+4.4%), all with top quality scores, interpreting recent weakness as overreaction within intact trends. Avoided solar (persistent weakness), oil (extreme vol), and stretched energy continuation.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY fell 0.4% over five sessions with only 39% of assets positive short-term but 71% positive over a month, indicating a shallow pullback within an uptrend. Strong prior relative-strength names that pulled back sharply (metals/mining, silver, cybersecurity) look like temporary dislocations rather than deterioration; macro data (ISM 55.6, contained CPI) does not support a regime break.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28976,
"latency_seconds": 40.42580131399154,
"output_tokens": 3032,
"total_tokens": 32008
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only the materials/metals quality-pullback cluster combines strong prior relative trend, shallow drawdown, and a fresh recent underperformance consistent with temporary overreaction rather than deterioration, so METALS_MINING, COPPER, and SILVER take the top three eligible slots. Extended energy/oil winners and twice-declining SOLAR are ranked below the benchmark; tech reversal candidates are held back because the primary catalyst (NVIDIA) prints after the exit close.
Modest broad-market pullback (SPY -1.34% over 3 sessions, VIX 15.84) with weak breadth in the last 5 sessions (39% positive) but healthy 21-session breadth (71%). Macro is mixed: cooling labor market (-23k payrolls, downward revisions), still-elevated inflation (CPI 3.4% y/y, PPI 4.7%), FOMC on hold with three hawkish dissents. Cross-sectional active dispersion is only 1.45% over 5 sessions, so single-week edges are small. Recent leadership rotated toward energy/oil and defensives; tech/software/cyber sold off sharply into an NVIDIA print that lands after the exit close, so tech reversal is untested by fundamentals inside the window. Best-supported reversal candidates are the quality-pullback commodity/materials complex where prior relative trend was strong and the pullback is recent and shallow.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Metals and silver carry 38-42% annualized volatility, so a one-week adverse move can far exceed the modest expected edge",
"China July manufacturing PMI at 49.2 weakens industrial-metals demand and could extend the copper/mining pullback",
"Hawkish July FOMC minutes on August 19 or firm August 26 PCE could lift real yields and pressure precious metals",
"Correlated selection: all three top picks share commodity/materials exposure, limiting diversification versus SPY",
"A tech-led rebound into the NVIDIA print could leave commodity picks lagging a rising SPY"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +16.72% with recent active -3.16%",
"Top quality evidence score 0.781 with prior active rank 1.00",
"Shallow 21-session drawdown -5.72% despite 41.8% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.18% over 5 sessions after slightly positive prior trend",
"Quality score 0.701 with recent pullback rank 0.955",
"Only -4.09% from 52-week high, drawdown shallow at -4.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +11.01% with modest recent active -1.49%",
"Quality score 0.763; gold 21-session return +8.44% supports precious metals trend",
"Shallow drawdown -4.12% relative to 37.6% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.34% after prior active +2.58%",
"Quality score 0.781 with moderate 19.2% volatility",
"Only -2.74% below 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Positive 3-session return +0.80% and active +1.43% while SPY fell",
"At 52-week high with negative SPY correlation -0.203",
"Prior active +1.66% shows persistent relative trend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +6.03% and recent active +0.51%",
"Volume z-score -1.49 signals fading participation",
"Only -0.42% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -0.74% with flat prior active +0.42%",
"Volume z-score -1.60, weakest in slate",
"Housing starts fell 12.4% in July, a cyclical headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 13.53% volatility and -2.52% drawdown",
"VIX 15.84 remains low"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.93% then recent active -1.48%",
"13.42% below 52-week high with 35.1% volatility",
"NVIDIA results land after the August 26 exit close"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.08% after prior active +4.35%",
"Volume z-score +0.19, rising volume on decline",
"Highest quality score among tech at 0.755"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +4.92%, at 52-week high, WTI 84.94",
"Recent pullback rank 0.000 signals extended positioning",
"Volume z-score -1.15 on the rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return +4.50% and 21-session +4.10%",
"64% volatility and -17.64% drawdown, lowest quality score 0.188",
"Contango and roll effects can erode returns"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.97% on top of prior active -3.82%",
"32.54% below 52-week high with 41.8% volatility",
"Beta 2.54 amplifies any further market weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"COPPER": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"COPPER",
"SILVER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Modest broad-market pullback (SPY -1.34% over 3 sessions, VIX 15.84) with weak breadth in the last 5 sessions (39% positive) but healthy 21-session breadth (71%). Macro is mixed: cooling labor market (-23k payrolls, downward revisions), still-elevated inflation (CPI 3.4% y/y, PPI 4.7%), FOMC on hold with three hawkish dissents. Cross-sectional active dispersion is only 1.45% over 5 sessions, so single-week edges are small. Recent leadership rotated toward energy/oil and defensives; tech/software/cyber sold off sharply into an NVIDIA print that lands after the exit close, so tech reversal is untested by fundamentals inside the window. Best-supported reversal candidates are the quality-pullback commodity/materials complex where prior relative trend was strong and the pullback is recent and shallow.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"COPPER",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only the materials/metals quality-pullback cluster combines strong prior relative trend, shallow drawdown, and a fresh recent underperformance consistent with temporary overreaction rather than deterioration, so METALS_MINING, COPPER, and SILVER take the top three eligible slots. Extended energy/oil winners and twice-declining SOLAR are ranked below the benchmark; tech reversal candidates are held back because the primary catalyst (NVIDIA) prints after the exit close.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Modest broad-market pullback (SPY -1.34% over 3 sessions, VIX 15.84) with weak breadth in the last 5 sessions (39% positive) but healthy 21-session breadth (71%). Macro is mixed: cooling labor market (-23k payrolls, downward revisions), still-elevated inflation (CPI 3.4% y/y, PPI 4.7%), FOMC on hold with three hawkish dissents. Cross-sectional active dispersion is only 1.45% over 5 sessions, so single-week edges are small. Recent leadership rotated toward energy/oil and defensives; tech/software/cyber sold off sharply into an NVIDIA print that lands after the exit close, so tech reversal is untested by fundamentals inside the window. Best-supported reversal candidates are the quality-pullback commodity/materials complex where prior relative trend was strong and the pullback is recent and shallow.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28976,
"latency_seconds": 43.436816817004,
"output_tokens": 3520,
"total_tokens": 32496
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but have strong prior trends or quality scores, suggesting potential for a reversal over the one-week horizon.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some sectors showing continuation of recent trends while others are pulling back. The recent FOMC decision to maintain rates and the mixed economic data suggest a cautious approach.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued market volatility could lead to further drawdowns in the selected assets.",
"Macroeconomic data releases during the week could negatively impact the chosen sectors."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.96%",
"High horizon volatility of 41.84%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.42%",
"Prior active return of 16.72%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.01%",
"Quality score of 0.781"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.68%",
"Horizon volatility of 22.69%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.66%",
"Prior active return of 4.35%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.24%",
"Prior active return of 11.01%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.06%",
"Prior active return of 7.93%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 4.29%",
"Prior active return of 1.32%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 4.50%",
"High horizon volatility of 64.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.19%",
"Volume z-score of -1.60"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.99%",
"Volume z-score of -1.49"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"MATERIALS": 30,
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SOLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some sectors showing continuation of recent trends while others are pulling back. The recent FOMC decision to maintain rates and the mixed economic data suggest a cautious approach.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but have strong prior trends or quality scores, suggesting potential for a reversal over the one-week horizon.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with some sectors showing continuation of recent trends while others are pulling back. The recent FOMC decision to maintain rates and the mixed economic data suggest a cautious approach.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19978,
"latency_seconds": 20.11677613700158,
"output_tokens": 2494,
"total_tokens": 22472
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Materials offers the cleanest lower-volatility quality pullback. Cybersecurity and metals/mining add stronger prior relative trends but wider tails; all three qualify as overreactions, while software and silver fall just below the required confidence threshold.
Moderate dispersion and broad 21-session participation favor selective reversals, but weak labor and retail data, elevated long yields, and major exit-day macro releases limit conviction. Pullbacks backed by prior relative strength and quality dominate unsupported momentum.
{
"confidence": 0.5733,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August 26 GDP, profits, durable-goods, and income data could abruptly shift rates and cyclicals before the exit close.",
"FOMC minutes could reinforce inflation concerns and pressure high-beta reversal candidates.",
"China's contracting manufacturing PMI could extend weakness in metals and mining exposures.",
"Low volume across several candidates may indicate weak conviction rather than temporary dislocation."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.34% after prior active strength of 2.58%.",
"Quality score was 0.781, with top-tier prior trend and pullback ranks.",
"Volatility was 19.19% and drawdown only -3.65%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return fell 2.08% despite prior active strength of 4.35%.",
"Quality score was 0.755 with prior-trend and pullback ranks above 0.92.",
"Positive volume z-score distinguished the selloff from most slate pullbacks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was slate-leading at 16.72% before a 3.16% active pullback.",
"Quality score was 0.781 with prior and pullback ranks near 1.00.",
"High 41.78% volatility and 1.99 beta make the reversal fragile."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 7.93% before a 1.48% active pullback.",
"Quality score was 0.739 and pullback rank was 0.866.",
"Volatility was elevated at 35.14%, while NVIDIA reports only after the exit close."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 11.01% before a 1.49% active pullback.",
"Quality score was 0.763, supported by very strong prior trend.",
"Volatility was high at 37.61% and gold had already gained 8.44% over 21 sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
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{
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{
"evidence": [
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"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"Its 21-session return was 3.42% and five-session return was -0.40%.",
"VIX closed at a moderate 15.84."
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
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{
"evidence": [
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"Prior active return was positive at 1.32%.",
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
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"rank": 10,
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"It remained 32.54% below its 52-week high with an -11.28% drawdown.",
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
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Energy continuation supported by industrial data and PMI; aerospace volume dislocation offers modest edge over benchmark in one-week window.
Mixed signals from weak July payrolls and GDP offset by resilient PMI and energy price strength; one-week window favors continuation in energy amid scheduled data releases.
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"evidence": [
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"evidence": [
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"evidence": [
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"deterministic_allocation": {
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"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
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},
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}xai-grok-4-5
Low dispersion and mixed tape favor limited mean-reversion in high-quality pullbacks (metals/mining, materials, cybersecurity) that show strong prior active ranks and contained drawdowns; energy continuation is real but lower quality and high-vol, while solar looks deteriorated. Prefer SPY as base given calendar risk and modest edges.
Low cross-sectional dispersion with soft recent equity tape, energy short-term strength, and quality pullbacks in materials/tech after prior relative strength; mixed macro (soft payrolls, sticky services prices, solid ISM) favors selective mean-reversion over broad continuation into the one-week window.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
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"August 26 GDP second estimate and personal income/outlays can reverse risk appetite before exit close",
"Elevated ISM prices and sticky core CPI keep rate-volatility risk alive into FOMC minutes",
"Energy/oil short-term strength can reverse sharply given high horizon vol and negative equity correlation",
"Tech-related pullbacks (software/cyber) remain sensitive to growth sentiment and NVIDIA after-close print"
],
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"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.781 with prior active rank 0.851 and recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Lower horizon vol 19.19% and shallow drawdown -3.65% vs peers",
"Recent active -2.34% after positive prior active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.755 driven by prior active rank 0.925 and pullback rank 0.940",
"Recent return -4.66% with only -5.02% max drawdown",
"Volume z near neutral (0.19)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.985 and quality score 0.763 after -1.49% recent active",
"Strong prior medium-strength trend (11.01% prior active)",
"Elevated distance to 52w high (-45.61%) limits immediate continuation risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.970 and quality 0.739 after -1.48% recent active and -4.06% weekly",
"Prior active +7.93% supports pullback rather than trend break",
"SPY beta moderate at 1.22"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.701 with recent pullback rank 0.955",
"Recent active -2.18% after modest prior positive",
"Horizon drawdown contained at -4.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Positive recent return +0.99% and prior active +6.03% with quality 0.623",
"Volume z deeply negative (-1.49) indicating dislocation without price collapse",
"Near 52w high (-0.42%)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong recent +4.29% and active +4.92% with negative SPY corr (-0.35)",
"At 52w high (0.00 distance) after positive prior active",
"Quality score low at 0.431 and volume z -1.15"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -1.19% near SPY with quality 0.655 and volume z -1.60",
"Prior active only +0.42%",
"Moderate beta 0.89 and drawdown -3.57%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent -1.34% and horizon vol 13.53%",
"Low dispersion environment (1.45% active dispersion)",
"Multiple macro prints scheduled inside the window including GDP second estimate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +4.50% active +2.79% but quality only 0.188 and vol 64%",
"Large max drawdown -17.64% and negative SPY corr",
"Prior active negative (-2.16%)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Deep recent -4.96% active -4.97% with prior also negative and quality 0.449",
"High vol 41.84% and max drawdown -11.28%",
"Far from 52w high (-32.54%) with beta 2.54"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 30,
"MATERIALS": 35,
"METALS_MINING": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Low cross-sectional dispersion with soft recent equity tape, energy short-term strength, and quality pullbacks in materials/tech after prior relative strength; mixed macro (soft payrolls, sticky services prices, solid ISM) favors selective mean-reversion over broad continuation into the one-week window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Low dispersion and mixed tape favor limited mean-reversion in high-quality pullbacks (metals/mining, materials, cybersecurity) that show strong prior active ranks and contained drawdowns; energy continuation is real but lower quality and high-vol, while solar looks deteriorated. Prefer SPY as base given calendar risk and modest edges.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Low cross-sectional dispersion with soft recent equity tape, energy short-term strength, and quality pullbacks in materials/tech after prior relative strength; mixed macro (soft payrolls, sticky services prices, solid ISM) favors selective mean-reversion over broad continuation into the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17914,
"latency_seconds": 43.46070594099001,
"output_tokens": 2675,
"reasoning_tokens": 293,
"total_tokens": 20882
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Cross-sectional dispersion is low and the week is event-dense, so SPY is the default. The only modest edges are quality pullbacks in materials and a one-week cybersecurity shock after a strong prior trend; metals/mining is next but too volatile to prefer over the index. Energy/oil already ran and sit on weak quality scores, so they are not ranked as one-week beaters.
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.45% with 39% of assets positive, while SPY is modestly lower into a data-heavy week (FOMC minutes, retail, GDP second estimate). Energy/oil show short-horizon strength against a broader equity pullback; several materials/tech names show quality pullbacks rather than a single clean continuation regime.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August 26 GDP second estimate, corporate profits, and PCE can reprice the whole equity complex before the weekly exit.",
"July FOMC minutes (Aug 19) may revive the three-dissent hawkish split and pressure high-beta reversals.",
"China manufacturing PMI 49.2 can keep copper, metals, and materials from mean-reverting.",
"Energy/oil continuation could persist if crude stays firm, making defensive index exposure lag a commodity tape."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.781 with recent pullback rank 0.970 and prior active rank 0.851.",
"Weekly return -1.01% versus SPY -1.34% with horizon vol 19.19% and max drawdown only -3.65%.",
"ISM July manufacturing PMI 55.6 with prices 71.1 supports industrial materials demand without a supplied fundamental break."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -4.66% with prior active +4.35% and quality evidence score 0.755.",
"52-week high distance equals the one-week loss (-4.66%), consistent with a concentrated shock rather than a long deterioration path.",
"Horizon vol 29.11% and SPY beta 1.34 imply a bounce can outpace SPY if the Aug 18 growth-stock selloff mean-reverts."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +16.72% with recent active -3.16% and top-tier quality evidence score 0.781.",
"Horizon vol 41.78% and beta 1.99 make one-week excess highly two-sided despite the pullback.",
"China July manufacturing PMI 49.2 is a demand headwind that limits conviction versus lower-vol materials."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -1.68% and recent active -2.18% after only +0.85% prior active.",
"Quality evidence score 0.701 with recent pullback rank 0.955 and 52w-high distance -4.09%.",
"China PMI contraction is a same-week industrial-metal risk that keeps the edge thin versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.93% versus recent active -1.48% and weekly -4.06%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.739 but low-volatility rank only 0.134 and 52w-high distance -13.42%.",
"Nasdaq-100 fell 1.68% on Aug 18; NVIDIA reports after the weekly exit close so software lacks an in-window earnings catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.01% with recent active -1.49% and quality evidence score 0.763.",
"52w-high distance -45.61% and horizon vol 37.61% imply a noisy one-week path.",
"Gold 21-session return +8.44% while silver only modestly pulled back, so the bounce is not independently confirmed in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -0.40% and 21-session +3.42% with VIX 15.84.",
"Horizon vol 13.53% and max drawdown -2.52% are the lowest-risk equity baseline on the slate.",
"Aug 26 GDP second estimate and PCE land before the weekly exit, keeping index-level event risk two-sided."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.60 with weekly return -1.19%, close to SPY, and beta 0.89.",
"Quality evidence score 0.655 and 52w-high distance only -1.58%.",
"Industrial production +0.2% in July is supportive but not a distinct one-week catalyst versus the index."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +0.99% and prior active +6.03% with 52w-high distance only -0.42%.",
"Volume z -1.49 flags thin participation rather than a fresh accumulation impulse.",
"Quality evidence score 0.623 is mid-pack; no in-window defense-budget catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +4.29% and recent active +4.92% with negative SPY correlation -0.35.",
"Quality evidence score only 0.431 because recent pullback rank is 0.000 and price is at the 52-week high.",
"Front-month WTI 84.94 and USO 5-session +2.39% support the tape, but low volume z -1.15 raises fade risk after a sharp move."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +4.50% after prior active -2.16%, so the move is a short continuation not a medium-horizon trend.",
"Horizon vol 64.02%, max drawdown -17.64%, and quality evidence score 0.188 are the weakest on the slate.",
"Negative SPY beta -1.34 can help if equities fall, but one-week oil path is too wide to claim an edge."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -4.96% after prior active -3.82%, so weakness is sequential rather than a one-week air-pocket.",
"Horizon vol 41.84%, max drawdown -11.28%, 52w-high distance -32.54%, quality score 0.449.",
"Beta 2.54 versus a still-soft labor/retail tape raises further relative-loss risk versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"METALS_MINING",
"MATERIALS",
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"SOFTWARE",
"ENERGY",
"OIL",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"MATERIALS": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"MATERIALS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.45% with 39% of assets positive, while SPY is modestly lower into a data-heavy week (FOMC minutes, retail, GDP second estimate). Energy/oil show short-horizon strength against a broader equity pullback; several materials/tech names show quality pullbacks rather than a single clean continuation regime.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"MATERIALS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Cross-sectional dispersion is low and the week is event-dense, so SPY is the default. The only modest edges are quality pullbacks in materials and a one-week cybersecurity shock after a strong prior trend; metals/mining is next but too volatile to prefer over the index. Energy/oil already ran and sit on weak quality scores, so they are not ranked as one-week beaters.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.45% with 39% of assets positive, while SPY is modestly lower into a data-heavy week (FOMC minutes, retail, GDP second estimate). Energy/oil show short-horizon strength against a broader equity pullback; several materials/tech names show quality pullbacks rather than a single clean continuation regime.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17626,
"latency_seconds": 53.1823829109926,
"output_tokens": 2627,
"reasoning_tokens": 595,
"total_tokens": 20848
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Silver (SLV)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Copper (CPER)35%Silver (SLV)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Solar Energy (TAN)35%Metals and Mining (XME)35%Materials Sector (XLB)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Materials Sector (XLB)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Metals and Mining (XME)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Metals and Mining (XME)35%Materials Sector (XLB)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Materials Sector (XLB)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 64450a1f3c7a...fc8a96e2 |
| manifest.yaml | e7873c138b57...9f9a276d |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | b5dcd8aba468...140b0e52 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 1257aa4086ca...cf074efe |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 9576888322eb...51db11de |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 2ab39680ffa8...435af1b4 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 77074d33bdc5...897cb00e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 706e7ec20926...4ecfd5fe |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |