Test proof files

CB-2026-05-27-1W

Weekly test one week

One-week CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored Tuesday-to-Tuesday from the May 26, 2026 adjusted close to the June 2, 2026 adjusted close.

Test CB-2026-05-27-1W pending

Picks Saved By 2026-05-27

Start Date 2026-05-26

End Date 2026-06-02

Run ID official-20260527-1W

1 Inputs saved
7 public proof hashes are available.
2 Portfolios collected
4 valid model allocations.
3 Start priced
65 starting-price rows published.
4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-06-02 prices are available.

Test state

Score Pending

This test has saved inputs and model portfolios. The scoreboard remains unavailable until ending prices are collected.

Pending

Model portfolios

4 valid allocations

No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.

Asset list

65 saved choices

v2.0 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.

Scoring

Ending prices pending

Asset return, portfolio return, S&P 500 return, return versus S&P 500, and regret publish after scoring.

Input proof hashes

7 artifacts published.

Public run selected

official-20260527-1W

Model-facing prompt available

57,561 shared prompt characters.

Ending prices pending

Scoreboard rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.

Interim tracking

Weekly Performance Vs S&P 500

Once at least one week of prices exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the test start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.

Weekly chart pending

At least one weekly price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.

Saved model-facing context

Prompt And Input Packet

The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.

Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 57,561 characters

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.

This is a short-horizon weekly round. The scoring window is Tuesday-to-Tuesday:

- The entry price is the adjusted close from Tuesday, May 26, 2026.
- The decision deadline is Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 04:00 America/Toronto / 08:00 UTC.
- The exit price is the adjusted close on Tuesday, June 2, 2026, calculated only after regular U.S. trading ends that Tuesday.
- The official score is based only on price movement from the May 26 adjusted close to the June 2 adjusted close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over the May 26 close to June 2 close scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the Tuesday, June 2 exit close.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

When reasoning, prioritize facts that can plausibly affect prices before the Tuesday, June 2 close: scheduled releases inside the window, known event dates, earnings or policy events inside the window, very near-term momentum, positioning, liquidity, and risks that could hit before the exit close. Use events after the June 2 close only if markets could price them before that close.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

## Round Metadata

- Round ID: CB-2026-05-27-1W
- Decision date: 2026-05-27
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-05-27T06:36:11Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-05-27T08:00:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-05-26
- Exit date: 2026-06-02
- Scoring window: 2026-05-26 to 2026-06-02; optimize for this one week window only.
- Close-to-close scoring: the entry price is the adjusted close on the entry date, and the exit price is the adjusted close on the exit date after regular trading ends.
- Timeline focus: prioritize facts, catalysts, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before the exit close.
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close on Tuesday, May 26, 2026 for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close on Tuesday, June 2, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Submission format: portfolio
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
- Portfolio holdings allowed: 1-5
- Portfolio allocation increment: 5%
- Portfolio minimum allocation: 5%
- Portfolio total allocation: 100%

## Briefing

# CapitalBench Briefing
## 1. Fact-Only Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.
## 2. Full-Universe Trailing Returns
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-05-27 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-26 | 0.04% | 0.28% | 1.78% | 3.89% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.26% | 4.95% | 11.06% | 28.43% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.45% | 4.80% | 11.14% | 28.51% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 2.40% | 9.94% | 19.19% | 40.78% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 0.80% | 4.73% | 6.11% | 26.11% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 1.92% | 4.67% | 15.29% | 28.09% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-26 | 2.56% | 2.48% | 13.95% | 24.24% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-26 | 3.80% | 4.82% | 18.08% | 41.37% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 2.90% | 3.32% | 19.28% | 43.09% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.71% | 4.95% | 21.23% | 29.16% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.44% | 0.57% | 2.40% | 3.03% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 4.83% | 11.86% | 27.25% | 37.29% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 4.52% | 15.30% | 30.84% | 60.37% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -0.47% | -0.22% | 1.60% | 14.88% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 1.28% | 1.37% | 2.06% | 11.02% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -2.21% | 1.57% | 7.43% | 4.38% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.94% | 3.52% | -5.47% | 14.37% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.37% | 0.08% | -1.24% | 3.37% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 2.09% | 1.04% | 14.77% | 23.25% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -3.26% | 1.90% | 31.53% | 44.40% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 2.55% | -1.53% | 15.82% | 19.22% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 1.84% | -1.86% | 2.20% | 14.14% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.63% | 2.81% | 9.71% | 11.96% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.58% | -0.79% | -1.62% | 4.02% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 1.42% | -1.00% | -3.99% | 3.78% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.41% | -0.35% | 0.48% | 4.70% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.77% | -0.08% | -0.68% | 6.11% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.40% | 0.11% | 1.99% | 7.00% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.51% | -0.39% | -0.27% | 5.12% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 2.25% | 5.45% | 19.31% | 32.72% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 2.66% | 2.55% | 13.47% | 29.96% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.41% | 3.39% | 12.05% | 19.83% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.85% | 5.95% | 15.80% | 29.68% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | -0.92% | -1.79% | -8.27% | 6.11% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.10% | -1.68% | -11.19% | -10.97% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -0.84% | -3.70% | 8.12% | 36.11% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -2.77% | -0.22% | 36.84% | 45.74% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 6.64% | 18.94% | 73.70% | 146.56% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 0.78% | 10.09% | -8.66% | -9.39% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.87% | 2.90% | 9.89% | 18.88% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-26 | 1.25% | 0.23% | 8.90% | 68.76% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-26 | 1.63% | 0.33% | 12.62% | 24.82% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-26 | 2.78% | 6.23% | 12.73% | 31.63% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.72% | 1.24% | 13.35% | 33.03% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.76% | 1.74% | 12.45% | 23.11% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.17% | -0.82% | 14.05% | 15.56% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 11.40% | 28.02% | 124.16% | 242.14% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 11.12% | 16.93% | 67.84% | 99.41% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | -0.71% | -8.52% | 12.94% | 37.51% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.52% | 2.30% | 18.43% | 33.89% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.88% | 0.06% | 8.58% | 43.55% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.61% | -0.42% | 0.38% | 6.80% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.68% | -0.44% | 0.90% | 5.81% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.76% | 0.02% | 1.45% | 11.25% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.65% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 2.27% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-26 | 1.44% | 2.03% | 44.05% | 130.63% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-26 | 1.19% | 5.69% | 22.58% | 31.64% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -1.79% | -0.36% | 8.90% | 5.35% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -5.04% | 1.69% | 95.60% | 103.63% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-26 | 0.07% | 1.09% | 1.67% | 4.29% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-26 | 0.04% | -0.62% | 0.70% | 3.36% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-26 | -0.26% | 0.09% | -1.99% | -9.73% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-26 | -2.27% | -1.31% | -15.76% | -31.22% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-26 | -3.22% | -9.55% | -31.79% | -23.36% | pass |
## 3. Macro Snapshot
### Core Macro Table
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 0.6% | 0.9% in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 3.8% | 3.3% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior 12-month rate | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 0.4% | 0.2% in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 2.8% | 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior 12-month rate | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | PCE price index | 0.7% | 0.4% in February 2026 | prior month | March 2026 | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index | 3.5% | not source-reported | not source-reported | March 2026 from same month one year ago | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 0.3% | 0.4% in February 2026 | prior month | March 2026 | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.2% | not source-reported | not source-reported | March 2026 from same month one year ago | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 1.4% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 6.0% | not source-reported | not source-reported | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| labor | unemployment rate | 4.3% | unchanged at 4.3% | prior month | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | nonfarm payroll employment | +115,000 jobs | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +0.2% | same pace as the prior month | prior month | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +3.6% | 3.4% in March 2026 | prior 12-month rate | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims | 209,000 | decrease of 3,000 from revised 212,000 | week-over-week change | week ending May 16, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims |
| growth | real GDP | +2.0% annual rate | 0.5% in Q4 2025 | prior quarter | Q1 2026 advance estimate | April 30, 2026 | BEA GDP Advance Estimate |
| growth | retail and food services sales | $757.1 billion | up 0.5% from previous month and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 14, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| growth | current-dollar personal consumption expenditures | +0.9% | 0.6% in February 2026 | prior month | March 2026 | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| growth | industrial production | +0.7% | -0.3% in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Federal Reserve G.17 |
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | unchanged from March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 1, 2026 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| business surveys | ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.0 in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 5, 2026 | ISM Services PMI |
| consumer | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior month and year-over-year comparison | May 2026 final | May 22, 2026 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer | Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | 93.1 | down 0.7 points from upwardly revised 93.8 in April 2026 | prior month | May 2026 | May 26, 2026 | The Conference Board |
| housing | housing starts and building permits | starts 1,465,000 SAAR; permits 1,442,000 SAAR | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | existing-home sales | 4.02 million SAAR | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 11, 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
### Rates, Fed, Credit, Liquidity, Volatility
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Federal Reserve policy | federal funds target range | 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | current target range | April 30, 2026 | Federal Reserve Economy at a Glance |
| Federal Reserve policy | latest FOMC decision | maintain target range at 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 FOMC meeting | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | next scheduled FOMC meeting | June 16-17, 2026 | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 FOMC calendar | latest calendar page | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| Federal Reserve policy | CME FedWatch pricing cited by Kiplinger | 86% probability target range remains 3.50% to 3.75% through year-end | not source-reported | not source-reported | as cited after April 2026 FOMC decision | April 29, 2026 | Kiplinger / CME FedWatch |
| Treasury yields | 3-month Treasury par yield | 3.68% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 2-year Treasury par yield | 4.01% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 10-year Treasury par yield | 4.50% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 30-year Treasury par yield | 5.03% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| real rates | 10-year Treasury real yield | 2.10% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| inflation expectations | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.40% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | Equibles / FRED T10YIE |
| currency | U.S. Dollar Index futures | 99.037 | not source-reported | not source-reported | intraday quote | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| volatility | CBOE Volatility Index | 16.70 | 16.76 prior value shown by source | prior observation | May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | MacroMicro / CBOE VIX |
| volatility | ICE BofA MOVE Index | 78.43 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | EODData MOVE Index |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread | 0.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 20, 2026 | May 20, 2026 | Equibles BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread | 278 bps | 280 bps on May 20, 2026 | prior observation | May 21, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Convex BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| financial conditions | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | -0.523 | -0.516 prior week | prior week | week ending May 15, 2026 | May 2026 | YCharts / Chicago Fed NFCI |
| liquidity | total money market fund assets | $7.77 trillion | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| housing rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.51% | 6.36% previous week | prior week | week ending May 21, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Freddie Mac PMMS |
### Commodity And Currency State
| measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI crude futures | $91.74 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq CL.F Quote |
| Brent crude futures | $96.47 | up $3.05 from $93.42 | source-reported prior quote comparison | May 26, 2026 20:41 UTC | TECHi / Stooq Futures Snapshot |
| natural gas futures | 2.997 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq NG.F Quote |
| gold futures | 4527.05 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq GC.F Quote |
| silver futures | 7597.8 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq SI.F Quote |
| copper futures | 640.33 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq HG.F Quote |
| Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index | 306.02 | up 2.52, or 0.83% | source-reported change | latest quote page crawl | Bloomberg Commodities |
| U.S. Dollar Index futures | 99.037 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| euro / U.S. dollar | 1.16402 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq EURUSD Quote |
| U.S. dollar / Japanese yen | 159.3615 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq USDJPY Quote |
## 4. Asset-Group Context
| asset_group | covered_options_or_area | fact_type | factual_statement | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | date_or_period | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | federal funds and Treasury bills | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | money-market funds | observed_value | Total money market fund assets were $7.77 trillion. | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| bonds and rates | Treasury curve | observed_value | The 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury par yields were 3.68%, 4.01%, 4.50%, and 5.03%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| bonds and rates | TIPS | observed_value | The 10-year Treasury real yield was 2.10%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| bonds and rates | mortgages and MBS reference rates | observed_value | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.51%. | 6.36% previous week | prior value | week ending May 21, 2026 | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| credit | investment-grade credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread was 0.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 20, 2026 | Equibles BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit | high-yield credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 278 bps. | 280 bps on May 20, 2026 | prior value | May 21, 2026 | Convex BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| broad US equities | S&P 500 earnings | observed_value | FactSet data cited by Axios reported S&P 500 Q1 2026 EPS of $80.75. | up 28.4% from Q1 2025 | year-over-year change | Q1 2026 | Axios / FactSet |
| broad US equities | valuation | observed_value | A May 2026 Shiller CAPE estimate for the S&P 500 was 41.6. | second-highest reading in more than 140 years of tracked data | range or percentile explicitly reported by source | May 2026 | Gotrade CAPE Ratio |
| Nasdaq / growth / technology | AI-linked earnings and cloud capex | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | Goldman Sachs Research said AI investment was expected to account for roughly 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 and that the largest cloud computing companies planned estimated 2026 spending of $670 billion. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 forecast, published April 2026 | Goldman Sachs Research |
| semiconductors | global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion in Q1 2026. | up 25% from Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| semiconductors | monthly global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $99.5 billion in March 2026. | up 79.2% from March 2025 and up 11.5% from February 2026 | year-over-year and month-over-month change | March 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| AI/technology themes | AI infrastructure and electricity | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | IEA reported that capital expenditure of five large technology companies exceeded $400 billion in 2025 and was set to increase by a further 75% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2025 and 2026 forecast | IEA Energy and AI |
| AI/technology themes | quantum and advanced computing | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The U.S. Department of Commerce signed letters of intent for $2.013 billion in CHIPS Act incentives across nine quantum computing companies. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 21, 2026 | NIST / Department of Commerce |
| consumer discretionary and consumer staples | retail sales categories | observed_value | U.S. retail and food services sales were $757.1 billion in April 2026. | up 0.5% from March 2026 and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| real estate | residential property activity | observed_value | Existing-home sales were 4.02 million SAAR in April 2026. | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
| real estate | housing construction | observed_value | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR and building permits were 1,442,000 SAAR. | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| aerospace/defense | defense budget request | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FY2027 U.S. defense budget request was about $1.5 trillion, including a $1.15 trillion base request and $350 billion from reconciliation. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | Breaking Defense |
| utilities | electricity demand and data centers | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA forecast U.S. electricity load would increase by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. | not source-reported | not source-reported | February 2026 STEO reference, published March 2026 | EIA Today in Energy |
| energy | oil supply policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from previous voluntary adjustments. | not source-reported | not source-reported | decision on May 3, 2026; adjustment for June 2026 | OPEC |
| energy | crude oil outlook | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and expected Brent prices around $106 per barrel in May and June. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| silver | precious metals | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | The Silver Institute projected the silver market would remain in deficit in 2026 for a sixth consecutive year, at 67 million ounces. | total global silver supply forecast to increase 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces | consensus / forecast comparison | 2026 forecast, published February 2026 | The Silver Institute |
| copper and materials | base metals | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | S&P Global Market Intelligence said its 2026 average copper price forecast remained just above $12,100 per metric ton. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 16, 2026 | S&P Global Market Intelligence |
| agriculture | grains | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | USDA forecast the U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels. | down 6% | year-over-year change | 2026/27 marketing year forecast, May 2026 WASDE | USDA WASDE |
| broad commodities | commodity index | observed_value | Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index was quoted at 306.02. | up 2.52, or 0.83% | prior value | latest quote page crawl | Bloomberg Commodities |
| currencies | U.S. dollar, euro, yen | observed_value | U.S. Dollar Index futures, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY were quoted at 99.037, 1.16402, and 159.3615, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq FX Quotes |
| Europe equities | euro area growth and ECB policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The ECB held the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | European Central Bank |
| Europe equities | euro area GDP | observed_value | Euro area GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | Q1 2026 preliminary flash estimate | Eurostat |
| Japan equities | Japan policy rate and yen | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 28, 2026 | AP / Bank of Japan |
| China equities | China credit policy and manufacturing | observed_value | China's one-year LPR was held at 3.0% and the five-year LPR was held at 3.5%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | Trading Economics China Interest Rate |
| China equities | manufacturing PMI | observed_value | China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in April 2026. | down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month | month-over-month change | April 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| India equities | India policy rates | policy_or_regulatory_fact | India's repo rate was listed at 5.25% and Standing Deposit Facility rate at 5.00%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | last updated May 2, 2026 | Bankopedia RBI Rates Dashboard |
| Canada equities | Canada policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate target at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and deposit rate at 2.20%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| UK equities | UK policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of England MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | Bank of England |
| crypto proxies | bitcoin and ethereum ETFs | observed_value | CryptoETF.today listed 24-hour net flows of -$105.2 million for bitcoin ETFs and -$6.6 million for ethereum ETFs. | YTD net inflows listed as +$535.5 million for bitcoin ETFs and -$701.9 million for ethereum ETFs | year-to-date change | May 27, 2026 live page | CryptoETF.today |
## 5. Tension Ledger
| area_or_asset_group | source_reported_fact_1 | source_reported_fact_2 | unresolved_question | source_or_sources |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation and labor | CPI-U rose 3.8% over the 12 months ending April 2026 | nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April 2026 | May 2026 CPI and Employment Situation releases | BLS CPI; BLS Employment Situation |
| consumer and spending | University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 | current-dollar PCE increased 0.9% in March 2026 | April 2026 PCE price index and personal spending release | University of Michigan; BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| rates and credit | 10-year Treasury par yield was 4.50% on May 26, 2026 | ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS was 278 bps on May 21, 2026 | June 16-17, 2026 FOMC policy decision | U.S. Treasury; Convex BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| housing | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.51% for the week ending May 21, 2026 | existing-home sales were 4.02 million SAAR in April 2026 | May 2026 existing-home sales release | Freddie Mac; AP / NAR |
| energy and inflation | WTI crude futures were $91.74 on May 27, 2026 source time | CPI energy index increased 17.9% over the 12 months ending April 2026 | May 2026 CPI energy index release | Stooq CL.F; BLS CPI |
| policy calendar | federal funds target range was 3.50% to 3.75% | ECB deposit facility rate was 2.00%, main refinancing operations rate was 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate was 2.40% | June 2026 FOMC and ECB policy decisions | Federal Reserve; ECB |
| broad US equities | S&P 500 Q1 2026 EPS was $80.75, up 28.4% from Q1 2025. | The May 2026 Shiller CAPE estimate for the S&P 500 was 41.6. | Next FactSet Earnings Insight update | Axios / FactSet; Gotrade CAPE Ratio |
| semiconductors | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 25% from Q4 2025. | The U.S. Commerce Department signed letters of intent for $2.013 billion in quantum-computing CHIPS Act incentives. | Next monthly SIA semiconductor sales release | SIA; NIST |
| AI infrastructure and utilities | IEA reported data-centre electricity demand rose 17% in 2025. | EIA forecast U.S. electricity load would increase by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. | Next EIA electricity-demand forecast update | IEA; EIA |
| energy/oil | Seven OPEC+ countries decided on a 188 thousand barrels per day production adjustment for June 2026. | EIA expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026. | June 7, 2026 OPEC+ review meeting and June 9, 2026 EIA STEO release | OPEC; EIA STEO |
| international equities | The ECB held its three key rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%. | Euro area GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. | June 11, 2026 ECB monetary policy decision | ECB; Eurostat |
| crypto proxies | Bitcoin ETFs had 24-hour net flows of -$105.2 million. | Bitcoin ETF YTD net inflows were listed as +$535.5 million. | Next settled U.S. spot crypto ETF flow update | CryptoETF.today |
## 6. Scheduled Calendar
| date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type_or_asset_group | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| May 28, 2026 8:30 AM ET | GDP second estimate and corporate profits, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule |
| May 28, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule |
| June 1, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 5, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Employment Situation, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS 2026 Release Calendar |
| June 10, 2026 8:30 AM ET | CPI, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS CPI Release Schedule |
| June 11, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Producer Price Index, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS PPI |
| June 11, 2026 | Governing Council monetary policy meeting, day 2, followed by press conference | European Central Bank | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | ECB Governing Council Calendar |
| June 16-17, 2026 | FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| June 16-17, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting | Bank of Japan | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of Japan MPM Schedule |
| June 18, 2026 | Monetary Policy Committee decision | Bank of England | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of England Bank Rate Page |
| June 22, 2026 01:15 AM | China Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y | People's Bank of China / National Interbank Funding Center | monetary policy rate fixing | prior 1Y LPR 3.0%; prior 5Y LPR 3.5% | Trading Economics China LPR Calendar |
| May 29, 2026 | FactSet Earnings Insight update | FactSet | broad US equities | not source-reported | International Daily Finance citing FactSet schedule |
| May 30, 2026 9:30 PM ET | China NBS PMI release | National Bureau of Statistics of China | China equities | not source-reported | MTS Insights China NBS PMIs |
| June 7, 2026 | OPEC+ monthly review meeting referenced after May 3 decision | OPEC+ | energy/oil | not source-reported | AP / OPEC+ |
| June 9, 2026 | Short-Term Energy Outlook next release | U.S. Energy Information Administration | energy/oil | not source-reported | EIA STEO |
## 7. Missing Major Data
| data_area | missing_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | April 2026 PCE price index and core PCE price index | scheduled for May 28, 2026 |
| growth | Q1 2026 GDP second estimate and corporate profits | scheduled for May 28, 2026 |
| labor | May 2026 Employment Situation | scheduled for June 5, 2026 |
| inflation | May 2026 CPI | scheduled for June 10, 2026 |
| inflation | May 2026 PPI | scheduled for June 11, 2026 |
| business surveys | May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI | scheduled for June 1 and June 3, 2026 |
| growth | May 2026 retail sales | not released in source set |
| housing | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales | not released in source set |
## 8. Final Neutrality Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.

## Options

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Base Instructions prompt.md

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.

This is a short-horizon weekly round. The scoring window is Tuesday-to-Tuesday:

- The entry price is the adjusted close from Tuesday, May 26, 2026.
- The decision deadline is Wednesday, May 27, 2026 at 04:00 America/Toronto / 08:00 UTC.
- The exit price is the adjusted close on Tuesday, June 2, 2026, calculated only after regular U.S. trading ends that Tuesday.
- The official score is based only on price movement from the May 26 adjusted close to the June 2 adjusted close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over the May 26 close to June 2 close scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the Tuesday, June 2 exit close.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

When reasoning, prioritize facts that can plausibly affect prices before the Tuesday, June 2 close: scheduled releases inside the window, known event dates, earnings or policy events inside the window, very near-term momentum, positioning, liquidity, and risks that could hit before the exit close. Use events after the June 2 close only if markets could price them before that close.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

Round Manifest manifest.yaml

round_id: CB-2026-05-27-1W
title: CapitalBench May 27 2026 One-Week Portfolio Round
description: One-week CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored Tuesday-to-Tuesday from the May 26, 2026 adjusted close to the June 2, 2026 adjusted close.
decision_date: '2026-05-27'
decision_deadline: '2026-05-27T08:00:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.0
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
  min_holdings: 1
  max_holdings: 5
  allocation_increment_pct: 5
  min_allocation_pct: 5
  max_total_allocation_pct: 100
  allow_cash: true
  allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use adjusted close on Tuesday, May 26, 2026 for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close on Tuesday, June 2, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-05-26'
exit_date: '2026-06-02'
created_at: '2026-05-27T06:53:34.145318+00:00'
notes: Research cutoff is 2026-05-27T06:36:11Z. This is a weekly-track round with a Tuesday-to-Tuesday scoring window and separate manifest, prompt, model input, hashes, run folder, prices, and resolution job.

Briefing briefing.md

# CapitalBench Briefing
## 1. Fact-Only Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.
## 2. Full-Universe Trailing Returns
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-05-27 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-26 | 0.04% | 0.28% | 1.78% | 3.89% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.26% | 4.95% | 11.06% | 28.43% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.45% | 4.80% | 11.14% | 28.51% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 2.40% | 9.94% | 19.19% | 40.78% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 0.80% | 4.73% | 6.11% | 26.11% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 1.92% | 4.67% | 15.29% | 28.09% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-26 | 2.56% | 2.48% | 13.95% | 24.24% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-26 | 3.80% | 4.82% | 18.08% | 41.37% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 2.90% | 3.32% | 19.28% | 43.09% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.71% | 4.95% | 21.23% | 29.16% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.44% | 0.57% | 2.40% | 3.03% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 4.83% | 11.86% | 27.25% | 37.29% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 4.52% | 15.30% | 30.84% | 60.37% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -0.47% | -0.22% | 1.60% | 14.88% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 1.28% | 1.37% | 2.06% | 11.02% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -2.21% | 1.57% | 7.43% | 4.38% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.94% | 3.52% | -5.47% | 14.37% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.37% | 0.08% | -1.24% | 3.37% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 2.09% | 1.04% | 14.77% | 23.25% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -3.26% | 1.90% | 31.53% | 44.40% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 2.55% | -1.53% | 15.82% | 19.22% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 1.84% | -1.86% | 2.20% | 14.14% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.63% | 2.81% | 9.71% | 11.96% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.58% | -0.79% | -1.62% | 4.02% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 1.42% | -1.00% | -3.99% | 3.78% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.41% | -0.35% | 0.48% | 4.70% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.77% | -0.08% | -0.68% | 6.11% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.40% | 0.11% | 1.99% | 7.00% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.51% | -0.39% | -0.27% | 5.12% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 2.25% | 5.45% | 19.31% | 32.72% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 2.66% | 2.55% | 13.47% | 29.96% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.41% | 3.39% | 12.05% | 19.83% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.85% | 5.95% | 15.80% | 29.68% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | -0.92% | -1.79% | -8.27% | 6.11% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.10% | -1.68% | -11.19% | -10.97% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -0.84% | -3.70% | 8.12% | 36.11% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -2.77% | -0.22% | 36.84% | 45.74% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 6.64% | 18.94% | 73.70% | 146.56% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 0.78% | 10.09% | -8.66% | -9.39% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.87% | 2.90% | 9.89% | 18.88% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-26 | 1.25% | 0.23% | 8.90% | 68.76% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-26 | 1.63% | 0.33% | 12.62% | 24.82% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-26 | 2.78% | 6.23% | 12.73% | 31.63% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.72% | 1.24% | 13.35% | 33.03% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.76% | 1.74% | 12.45% | 23.11% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.17% | -0.82% | 14.05% | 15.56% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 11.40% | 28.02% | 124.16% | 242.14% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 11.12% | 16.93% | 67.84% | 99.41% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | -0.71% | -8.52% | 12.94% | 37.51% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.52% | 2.30% | 18.43% | 33.89% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.88% | 0.06% | 8.58% | 43.55% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.61% | -0.42% | 0.38% | 6.80% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.68% | -0.44% | 0.90% | 5.81% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.76% | 0.02% | 1.45% | 11.25% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.65% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 2.27% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-26 | 1.44% | 2.03% | 44.05% | 130.63% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-26 | 1.19% | 5.69% | 22.58% | 31.64% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -1.79% | -0.36% | 8.90% | 5.35% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -5.04% | 1.69% | 95.60% | 103.63% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-26 | 0.07% | 1.09% | 1.67% | 4.29% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-26 | 0.04% | -0.62% | 0.70% | 3.36% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-26 | -0.26% | 0.09% | -1.99% | -9.73% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-26 | -2.27% | -1.31% | -15.76% | -31.22% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-26 | -3.22% | -9.55% | -31.79% | -23.36% | pass |
## 3. Macro Snapshot
### Core Macro Table
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 0.6% | 0.9% in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 3.8% | 3.3% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior 12-month rate | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 0.4% | 0.2% in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 2.8% | 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior 12-month rate | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | PCE price index | 0.7% | 0.4% in February 2026 | prior month | March 2026 | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index | 3.5% | not source-reported | not source-reported | March 2026 from same month one year ago | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 0.3% | 0.4% in February 2026 | prior month | March 2026 | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.2% | not source-reported | not source-reported | March 2026 from same month one year ago | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 1.4% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 6.0% | not source-reported | not source-reported | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| labor | unemployment rate | 4.3% | unchanged at 4.3% | prior month | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | nonfarm payroll employment | +115,000 jobs | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +0.2% | same pace as the prior month | prior month | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +3.6% | 3.4% in March 2026 | prior 12-month rate | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims | 209,000 | decrease of 3,000 from revised 212,000 | week-over-week change | week ending May 16, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims |
| growth | real GDP | +2.0% annual rate | 0.5% in Q4 2025 | prior quarter | Q1 2026 advance estimate | April 30, 2026 | BEA GDP Advance Estimate |
| growth | retail and food services sales | $757.1 billion | up 0.5% from previous month and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 14, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| growth | current-dollar personal consumption expenditures | +0.9% | 0.6% in February 2026 | prior month | March 2026 | April 30, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| growth | industrial production | +0.7% | -0.3% in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Federal Reserve G.17 |
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | unchanged from March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 1, 2026 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| business surveys | ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.0 in March 2026 | prior month | April 2026 | May 5, 2026 | ISM Services PMI |
| consumer | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior month and year-over-year comparison | May 2026 final | May 22, 2026 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer | Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | 93.1 | down 0.7 points from upwardly revised 93.8 in April 2026 | prior month | May 2026 | May 26, 2026 | The Conference Board |
| housing | housing starts and building permits | starts 1,465,000 SAAR; permits 1,442,000 SAAR | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | existing-home sales | 4.02 million SAAR | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 11, 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
### Rates, Fed, Credit, Liquidity, Volatility
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Federal Reserve policy | federal funds target range | 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | current target range | April 30, 2026 | Federal Reserve Economy at a Glance |
| Federal Reserve policy | latest FOMC decision | maintain target range at 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 FOMC meeting | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | next scheduled FOMC meeting | June 16-17, 2026 | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 FOMC calendar | latest calendar page | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| Federal Reserve policy | CME FedWatch pricing cited by Kiplinger | 86% probability target range remains 3.50% to 3.75% through year-end | not source-reported | not source-reported | as cited after April 2026 FOMC decision | April 29, 2026 | Kiplinger / CME FedWatch |
| Treasury yields | 3-month Treasury par yield | 3.68% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 2-year Treasury par yield | 4.01% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 10-year Treasury par yield | 4.50% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 30-year Treasury par yield | 5.03% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| real rates | 10-year Treasury real yield | 2.10% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| inflation expectations | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.40% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | Equibles / FRED T10YIE |
| currency | U.S. Dollar Index futures | 99.037 | not source-reported | not source-reported | intraday quote | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| volatility | CBOE Volatility Index | 16.70 | 16.76 prior value shown by source | prior observation | May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | MacroMicro / CBOE VIX |
| volatility | ICE BofA MOVE Index | 78.43 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | EODData MOVE Index |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread | 0.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 20, 2026 | May 20, 2026 | Equibles BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread | 278 bps | 280 bps on May 20, 2026 | prior observation | May 21, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Convex BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| financial conditions | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | -0.523 | -0.516 prior week | prior week | week ending May 15, 2026 | May 2026 | YCharts / Chicago Fed NFCI |
| liquidity | total money market fund assets | $7.77 trillion | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| housing rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.51% | 6.36% previous week | prior week | week ending May 21, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Freddie Mac PMMS |
### Commodity And Currency State
| measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI crude futures | $91.74 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq CL.F Quote |
| Brent crude futures | $96.47 | up $3.05 from $93.42 | source-reported prior quote comparison | May 26, 2026 20:41 UTC | TECHi / Stooq Futures Snapshot |
| natural gas futures | 2.997 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq NG.F Quote |
| gold futures | 4527.05 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq GC.F Quote |
| silver futures | 7597.8 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq SI.F Quote |
| copper futures | 640.33 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq HG.F Quote |
| Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index | 306.02 | up 2.52, or 0.83% | source-reported change | latest quote page crawl | Bloomberg Commodities |
| U.S. Dollar Index futures | 99.037 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq DX.F Quote |
| euro / U.S. dollar | 1.16402 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq EURUSD Quote |
| U.S. dollar / Japanese yen | 159.3615 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq USDJPY Quote |
## 4. Asset-Group Context
| asset_group | covered_options_or_area | fact_type | factual_statement | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | date_or_period | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | federal funds and Treasury bills | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | money-market funds | observed_value | Total money market fund assets were $7.77 trillion. | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| bonds and rates | Treasury curve | observed_value | The 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury par yields were 3.68%, 4.01%, 4.50%, and 5.03%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| bonds and rates | TIPS | observed_value | The 10-year Treasury real yield was 2.10%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 26, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| bonds and rates | mortgages and MBS reference rates | observed_value | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.51%. | 6.36% previous week | prior value | week ending May 21, 2026 | Freddie Mac PMMS |
| credit | investment-grade credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread was 0.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 20, 2026 | Equibles BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit | high-yield credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 278 bps. | 280 bps on May 20, 2026 | prior value | May 21, 2026 | Convex BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| broad US equities | S&P 500 earnings | observed_value | FactSet data cited by Axios reported S&P 500 Q1 2026 EPS of $80.75. | up 28.4% from Q1 2025 | year-over-year change | Q1 2026 | Axios / FactSet |
| broad US equities | valuation | observed_value | A May 2026 Shiller CAPE estimate for the S&P 500 was 41.6. | second-highest reading in more than 140 years of tracked data | range or percentile explicitly reported by source | May 2026 | Gotrade CAPE Ratio |
| Nasdaq / growth / technology | AI-linked earnings and cloud capex | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | Goldman Sachs Research said AI investment was expected to account for roughly 40% of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026 and that the largest cloud computing companies planned estimated 2026 spending of $670 billion. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 forecast, published April 2026 | Goldman Sachs Research |
| semiconductors | global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion in Q1 2026. | up 25% from Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| semiconductors | monthly global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $99.5 billion in March 2026. | up 79.2% from March 2025 and up 11.5% from February 2026 | year-over-year and month-over-month change | March 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| AI/technology themes | AI infrastructure and electricity | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | IEA reported that capital expenditure of five large technology companies exceeded $400 billion in 2025 and was set to increase by a further 75% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2025 and 2026 forecast | IEA Energy and AI |
| AI/technology themes | quantum and advanced computing | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The U.S. Department of Commerce signed letters of intent for $2.013 billion in CHIPS Act incentives across nine quantum computing companies. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 21, 2026 | NIST / Department of Commerce |
| consumer discretionary and consumer staples | retail sales categories | observed_value | U.S. retail and food services sales were $757.1 billion in April 2026. | up 0.5% from March 2026 and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| real estate | residential property activity | observed_value | Existing-home sales were 4.02 million SAAR in April 2026. | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
| real estate | housing construction | observed_value | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR and building permits were 1,442,000 SAAR. | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| aerospace/defense | defense budget request | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FY2027 U.S. defense budget request was about $1.5 trillion, including a $1.15 trillion base request and $350 billion from reconciliation. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | Breaking Defense |
| utilities | electricity demand and data centers | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA forecast U.S. electricity load would increase by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. | not source-reported | not source-reported | February 2026 STEO reference, published March 2026 | EIA Today in Energy |
| energy | oil supply policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from previous voluntary adjustments. | not source-reported | not source-reported | decision on May 3, 2026; adjustment for June 2026 | OPEC |
| energy | crude oil outlook | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and expected Brent prices around $106 per barrel in May and June. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| silver | precious metals | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | The Silver Institute projected the silver market would remain in deficit in 2026 for a sixth consecutive year, at 67 million ounces. | total global silver supply forecast to increase 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces | consensus / forecast comparison | 2026 forecast, published February 2026 | The Silver Institute |
| copper and materials | base metals | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | S&P Global Market Intelligence said its 2026 average copper price forecast remained just above $12,100 per metric ton. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 16, 2026 | S&P Global Market Intelligence |
| agriculture | grains | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | USDA forecast the U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels. | down 6% | year-over-year change | 2026/27 marketing year forecast, May 2026 WASDE | USDA WASDE |
| broad commodities | commodity index | observed_value | Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index was quoted at 306.02. | up 2.52, or 0.83% | prior value | latest quote page crawl | Bloomberg Commodities |
| currencies | U.S. dollar, euro, yen | observed_value | U.S. Dollar Index futures, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY were quoted at 99.037, 1.16402, and 159.3615, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 08:12 source time | Stooq FX Quotes |
| Europe equities | euro area growth and ECB policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The ECB held the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | European Central Bank |
| Europe equities | euro area GDP | observed_value | Euro area GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | Q1 2026 preliminary flash estimate | Eurostat |
| Japan equities | Japan policy rate and yen | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 28, 2026 | AP / Bank of Japan |
| China equities | China credit policy and manufacturing | observed_value | China's one-year LPR was held at 3.0% and the five-year LPR was held at 3.5%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | Trading Economics China Interest Rate |
| China equities | manufacturing PMI | observed_value | China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in April 2026. | down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month | month-over-month change | April 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| India equities | India policy rates | policy_or_regulatory_fact | India's repo rate was listed at 5.25% and Standing Deposit Facility rate at 5.00%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | last updated May 2, 2026 | Bankopedia RBI Rates Dashboard |
| Canada equities | Canada policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate target at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and deposit rate at 2.20%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| UK equities | UK policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of England MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | Bank of England |
| crypto proxies | bitcoin and ethereum ETFs | observed_value | CryptoETF.today listed 24-hour net flows of -$105.2 million for bitcoin ETFs and -$6.6 million for ethereum ETFs. | YTD net inflows listed as +$535.5 million for bitcoin ETFs and -$701.9 million for ethereum ETFs | year-to-date change | May 27, 2026 live page | CryptoETF.today |
## 5. Tension Ledger
| area_or_asset_group | source_reported_fact_1 | source_reported_fact_2 | unresolved_question | source_or_sources |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| inflation and labor | CPI-U rose 3.8% over the 12 months ending April 2026 | nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April 2026 | May 2026 CPI and Employment Situation releases | BLS CPI; BLS Employment Situation |
| consumer and spending | University of Michigan consumer sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 | current-dollar PCE increased 0.9% in March 2026 | April 2026 PCE price index and personal spending release | University of Michigan; BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| rates and credit | 10-year Treasury par yield was 4.50% on May 26, 2026 | ICE BofA US High Yield Index OAS was 278 bps on May 21, 2026 | June 16-17, 2026 FOMC policy decision | U.S. Treasury; Convex BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| housing | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.51% for the week ending May 21, 2026 | existing-home sales were 4.02 million SAAR in April 2026 | May 2026 existing-home sales release | Freddie Mac; AP / NAR |
| energy and inflation | WTI crude futures were $91.74 on May 27, 2026 source time | CPI energy index increased 17.9% over the 12 months ending April 2026 | May 2026 CPI energy index release | Stooq CL.F; BLS CPI |
| policy calendar | federal funds target range was 3.50% to 3.75% | ECB deposit facility rate was 2.00%, main refinancing operations rate was 2.15%, and marginal lending facility rate was 2.40% | June 2026 FOMC and ECB policy decisions | Federal Reserve; ECB |
| broad US equities | S&P 500 Q1 2026 EPS was $80.75, up 28.4% from Q1 2025. | The May 2026 Shiller CAPE estimate for the S&P 500 was 41.6. | Next FactSet Earnings Insight update | Axios / FactSet; Gotrade CAPE Ratio |
| semiconductors | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion in Q1 2026, up 25% from Q4 2025. | The U.S. Commerce Department signed letters of intent for $2.013 billion in quantum-computing CHIPS Act incentives. | Next monthly SIA semiconductor sales release | SIA; NIST |
| AI infrastructure and utilities | IEA reported data-centre electricity demand rose 17% in 2025. | EIA forecast U.S. electricity load would increase by 1.9% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027. | Next EIA electricity-demand forecast update | IEA; EIA |
| energy/oil | Seven OPEC+ countries decided on a 188 thousand barrels per day production adjustment for June 2026. | EIA expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026. | June 7, 2026 OPEC+ review meeting and June 9, 2026 EIA STEO release | OPEC; EIA STEO |
| international equities | The ECB held its three key rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%. | Euro area GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. | June 11, 2026 ECB monetary policy decision | ECB; Eurostat |
| crypto proxies | Bitcoin ETFs had 24-hour net flows of -$105.2 million. | Bitcoin ETF YTD net inflows were listed as +$535.5 million. | Next settled U.S. spot crypto ETF flow update | CryptoETF.today |
## 6. Scheduled Calendar
| date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type_or_asset_group | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| May 28, 2026 8:30 AM ET | GDP second estimate and corporate profits, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule |
| May 28, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule |
| June 1, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 5, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Employment Situation, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS 2026 Release Calendar |
| June 10, 2026 8:30 AM ET | CPI, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS CPI Release Schedule |
| June 11, 2026 8:30 AM ET | Producer Price Index, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS PPI |
| June 11, 2026 | Governing Council monetary policy meeting, day 2, followed by press conference | European Central Bank | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | ECB Governing Council Calendar |
| June 16-17, 2026 | FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| June 16-17, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting | Bank of Japan | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of Japan MPM Schedule |
| June 18, 2026 | Monetary Policy Committee decision | Bank of England | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of England Bank Rate Page |
| June 22, 2026 01:15 AM | China Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y | People's Bank of China / National Interbank Funding Center | monetary policy rate fixing | prior 1Y LPR 3.0%; prior 5Y LPR 3.5% | Trading Economics China LPR Calendar |
| May 29, 2026 | FactSet Earnings Insight update | FactSet | broad US equities | not source-reported | International Daily Finance citing FactSet schedule |
| May 30, 2026 9:30 PM ET | China NBS PMI release | National Bureau of Statistics of China | China equities | not source-reported | MTS Insights China NBS PMIs |
| June 7, 2026 | OPEC+ monthly review meeting referenced after May 3 decision | OPEC+ | energy/oil | not source-reported | AP / OPEC+ |
| June 9, 2026 | Short-Term Energy Outlook next release | U.S. Energy Information Administration | energy/oil | not source-reported | EIA STEO |
## 7. Missing Major Data
| data_area | missing_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- |
| inflation | April 2026 PCE price index and core PCE price index | scheduled for May 28, 2026 |
| growth | Q1 2026 GDP second estimate and corporate profits | scheduled for May 28, 2026 |
| labor | May 2026 Employment Situation | scheduled for June 5, 2026 |
| inflation | May 2026 CPI | scheduled for June 10, 2026 |
| inflation | May 2026 PPI | scheduled for June 11, 2026 |
| business surveys | May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI | scheduled for June 1 and June 3, 2026 |
| growth | May 2026 retail sales | not released in source set |
| housing | May 2026 housing starts, building permits, and existing-home sales | not released in source set |
## 8. Final Neutrality Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.

Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md

This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-05-27
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-05-27 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-26 | 0.04% | 0.28% | 1.78% | 3.89% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.26% | 4.95% | 11.06% | 28.43% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.45% | 4.80% | 11.14% | 28.51% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 2.40% | 9.94% | 19.19% | 40.78% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 0.80% | 4.73% | 6.11% | 26.11% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 1.92% | 4.67% | 15.29% | 28.09% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-26 | 2.56% | 2.48% | 13.95% | 24.24% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-26 | 3.80% | 4.82% | 18.08% | 41.37% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-26 | 2.90% | 3.32% | 19.28% | 43.09% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.71% | 4.95% | 21.23% | 29.16% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.44% | 0.57% | 2.40% | 3.03% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-26 | 4.83% | 11.86% | 27.25% | 37.29% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 4.52% | 15.30% | 30.84% | 60.37% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -0.47% | -0.22% | 1.60% | 14.88% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 1.28% | 1.37% | 2.06% | 11.02% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -2.21% | 1.57% | 7.43% | 4.38% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.94% | 3.52% | -5.47% | 14.37% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.37% | 0.08% | -1.24% | 3.37% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 2.09% | 1.04% | 14.77% | 23.25% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | -3.26% | 1.90% | 31.53% | 44.40% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 2.55% | -1.53% | 15.82% | 19.22% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 1.84% | -1.86% | 2.20% | 14.14% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-26 | 0.63% | 2.81% | 9.71% | 11.96% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.58% | -0.79% | -1.62% | 4.02% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 1.42% | -1.00% | -3.99% | 3.78% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.41% | -0.35% | 0.48% | 4.70% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.77% | -0.08% | -0.68% | 6.11% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.40% | 0.11% | 1.99% | 7.00% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.51% | -0.39% | -0.27% | 5.12% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 2.25% | 5.45% | 19.31% | 32.72% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 2.66% | 2.55% | 13.47% | 29.96% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.41% | 3.39% | 12.05% | 19.83% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.85% | 5.95% | 15.80% | 29.68% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | -0.92% | -1.79% | -8.27% | 6.11% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.10% | -1.68% | -11.19% | -10.97% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -0.84% | -3.70% | 8.12% | 36.11% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -2.77% | -0.22% | 36.84% | 45.74% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 6.64% | 18.94% | 73.70% | 146.56% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-26 | 0.78% | 10.09% | -8.66% | -9.39% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-26 | 1.87% | 2.90% | 9.89% | 18.88% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-26 | 1.25% | 0.23% | 8.90% | 68.76% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-26 | 1.63% | 0.33% | 12.62% | 24.82% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-26 | 2.78% | 6.23% | 12.73% | 31.63% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.72% | 1.24% | 13.35% | 33.03% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.76% | 1.74% | 12.45% | 23.11% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.17% | -0.82% | 14.05% | 15.56% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 11.40% | 28.02% | 124.16% | 242.14% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 11.12% | 16.93% | 67.84% | 99.41% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | -0.71% | -8.52% | 12.94% | 37.51% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 0.52% | 2.30% | 18.43% | 33.89% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-26 | 1.88% | 0.06% | 8.58% | 43.55% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.61% | -0.42% | 0.38% | 6.80% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.68% | -0.44% | 0.90% | 5.81% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-26 | 0.76% | 0.02% | 1.45% | 11.25% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-26 | 0.65% | 0.61% | 0.16% | 2.27% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-26 | 1.44% | 2.03% | 44.05% | 130.63% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-26 | 1.19% | 5.69% | 22.58% | 31.64% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -1.79% | -0.36% | 8.90% | 5.35% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-26 | -5.04% | 1.69% | 95.60% | 103.63% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-26 | 0.07% | 1.09% | 1.67% | 4.29% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-26 | 0.04% | -0.62% | 0.70% | 3.36% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-26 | -0.26% | 0.09% | -1.99% | -9.73% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-26 | -2.27% | -1.31% | -15.76% | -31.22% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-26 | -3.22% | -9.55% | -31.79% | -23.36% | pass |

Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Source Options YAML options.yaml

options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    is_benchmark: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

  - id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
    name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
    symbol: RSP
    tiingo_symbol: RSP
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."

  - id: BIOTECH
    name: Biotechnology
    symbol: XBI
    tiingo_symbol: XBI
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."

  - id: REGIONAL_BANKS
    name: Regional Banks
    symbol: KRE
    tiingo_symbol: KRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."

  - id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
    name: Aerospace and Defense
    symbol: ITA
    tiingo_symbol: ITA
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: CANADA
    name: Canada Equities
    symbol: EWC
    tiingo_symbol: EWC
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."

  - id: UNITED_KINGDOM
    name: United Kingdom Equities
    symbol: EWU
    tiingo_symbol: EWU
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."

  - id: AUSTRALIA
    name: Australia Equities
    symbol: EWA
    tiingo_symbol: EWA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."

  - id: SOUTH_KOREA
    name: South Korea Equities
    symbol: EWY
    tiingo_symbol: EWY
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."

  - id: TAIWAN
    name: Taiwan Equities
    symbol: EWT
    tiingo_symbol: EWT
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: BRAZIL
    name: Brazil Equities
    symbol: EWZ
    tiingo_symbol: EWZ
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."

  - id: MEXICO
    name: Mexico Equities
    symbol: EWW
    tiingo_symbol: EWW
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."

  - id: SOUTH_AFRICA
    name: South Africa Equities
    symbol: EZA
    tiingo_symbol: EZA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."

  - id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
    name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
    symbol: MBB
    tiingo_symbol: MBB
    asset_class: bond
    category: securitized_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."

  - id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
    name: Municipal Bonds
    symbol: MUB
    tiingo_symbol: MUB
    asset_class: bond
    category: municipal_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
    name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
    symbol: EMB
    tiingo_symbol: EMB
    asset_class: bond
    category: emerging_market_debt
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."

  - id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
    name: International Aggregate Bonds
    symbol: BNDX
    tiingo_symbol: BNDX
    asset_class: bond
    category: international_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."

  - id: SILVER
    name: Silver
    symbol: SLV
    tiingo_symbol: SLV
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."

  - id: COPPER
    name: Copper
    symbol: CPER
    tiingo_symbol: CPER
    asset_class: commodity
    category: industrial_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."

  - id: AGRICULTURE
    name: Agriculture Commodities
    symbol: DBA
    tiingo_symbol: DBA
    asset_class: commodity
    category: agriculture
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."

  - id: OIL
    name: Crude Oil
    symbol: USO
    tiingo_symbol: USO
    asset_class: commodity
    category: energy_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."

  - id: US_DOLLAR
    name: US Dollar
    symbol: UUP
    tiingo_symbol: UUP
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."

  - id: EURO
    name: Euro
    symbol: FXE
    tiingo_symbol: FXE
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."

  - id: YEN
    name: Japanese Yen
    symbol: FXY
    tiingo_symbol: FXY
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BITCOIN_ETF
    name: Bitcoin ETF
    symbol: IBIT
    tiingo_symbol: IBIT
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."

  - id: ETHEREUM_ETF
    name: Ethereum ETF
    symbol: ETHA
    tiingo_symbol: ETHA
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."

Round Hashes hashes.json

{
  "algorithm": "sha256",
  "files": {
    "briefing.md": "694f578eb26174e6830dcba1b4f2a5e96dfe2780987069d4b041c861e20b7214",
    "manifest.yaml": "d07056585858096dce157035eaf4f02241ed7eeeea16dac68432cbf5ac7b60e5",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "5add8dfc8d90da49354f64be2d24f380c496bd26b624125deaaa5c8fb23f9078",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "5ba2fca36fc3774da63d2cb80d39a0f370ace928f07e3d003e484cb99e3d59c3",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "039768477602402bc6682dc306b65a0295ec80503a3e7e5a76fa3bdce14a5d6b",
    "options.yaml": "8e07e0a1d09976c253d8b385fffa546b2e406bbad7499c7fc9f3fe35f15afcb1",
    "prompt.md": "946b07610669820ff6d9eeea12d4ba7307f8303326b300760580defb42cbd86d"
  }
}

Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 4 model calls

Claude Opus 4.7

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Gemini 3.1 Pro

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-27-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

GPT-5.5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-27-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Grok 4.3

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Parsed provider responses

Model Outputs

These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 35% EWY 20% MTUM 20% XLK 15% IAU 10%

Confidence: 0.60
Run Type: official

Rationale

Window has limited Tier-1 US catalysts (PCE May 28, ISM Jun 1, no Fed). Riding clear semiconductor/AI momentum where SMH, EWY, EWT show parabolic trend persistence, balanced by MOMENTUM factor and a gold hedge for any hot PCE print.

Lean into dominant semi/AI momentum (SMH, EWY, XLK, MTUM) which has shown overwhelming relative strength vs SPY, with a 10% gold hedge for the May 28 PCE release tail risk.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strongest momentum (+6.64% 7d, +18.94% 30d) backed by Q1 chip sales +25% QoQ and massive AI capex tailwinds; SK/Taiwan strength confirms semi cycle acceleration.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 20% - Extreme momentum (+11.4% 7d, +28% 30d) tied to semiconductor cycle; trend likely to persist into June with no major adverse catalysts in window.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 20% - Momentum factor leading broad indices (+4.83% 7d, +11.86% 30d); benign macro week with no FOMC and limited high-impact data should let trends continue.
Technology Sector (XLK): 15% - XLK +4.52% 7d with AI capex ($670B planned 2026) and 40% of S&P EPS growth from AI; durable leadership into June.
Gold (IAU): 10% - Hedge against soft consumer sentiment (UMich 44.8), sticky CPI 3.8%, and PCE release May 28 surprise risk; -3.7% 30d pullback offers entry.

Key Risks

Hot April PCE print May 28 lifts yields and triggers mean-reversion in high-momentum tech/Korea/Taiwan names
Semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan trades are crowded and overextended short-term; sharp factor reversal could underperform SPY
Oil shock from OPEC+ June 7 meeting or geopolitics weighs on growth/tech multiples
Stronger USD (DXY 99) pressures EWY/EWT translation returns
Weak ISM Manufacturing June 1 hits cyclical AI-linked semis disproportionately

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hot April PCE print May 28 lifts yields and triggers mean-reversion in high-momentum tech/Korea/Taiwan names",
    "Semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan trades are crowded and overextended short-term; sharp factor reversal could underperform SPY",
    "Oil shock from OPEC+ June 7 meeting or geopolitics weighs on growth/tech multiples",
    "Stronger USD (DXY 99) pressures EWY/EWT translation returns",
    "Weak ISM Manufacturing June 1 hits cyclical AI-linked semis disproportionately"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strongest momentum (+6.64% 7d, +18.94% 30d) backed by Q1 chip sales +25% QoQ and massive AI capex tailwinds; SK/Taiwan strength confirms semi cycle acceleration."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Extreme momentum (+11.4% 7d, +28% 30d) tied to semiconductor cycle; trend likely to persist into June with no major adverse catalysts in window."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Momentum factor leading broad indices (+4.83% 7d, +11.86% 30d); benign macro week with no FOMC and limited high-impact data should let trends continue."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "rationale": "XLK +4.52% 7d with AI capex ($670B planned 2026) and 40% of S&P EPS growth from AI; durable leadership into June."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "rationale": "Hedge against soft consumer sentiment (UMich 44.8), sticky CPI 3.8%, and PCE release May 28 surprise risk; -3.7% 30d pullback offers entry."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Window has limited Tier-1 US catalysts (PCE May 28, ISM Jun 1, no Fed). Riding clear semiconductor/AI momentum where SMH, EWY, EWT show parabolic trend persistence, balanced by MOMENTUM factor and a gold hedge for any hot PCE print.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Lean into dominant semi/AI momentum (SMH, EWY, XLK, MTUM) which has shown overwhelming relative strength vs SPY, with a 10% gold hedge for the May 28 PCE release tail risk.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 26843,
    "latency_seconds": 19.918080589006422,
    "output_tokens": 958,
    "total_tokens": 27801
  }
}

Google

Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

3 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 40% XLK 30% MTUM 30%

Confidence: 0.75
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology and semiconductors to capitalize on strong AI-driven momentum and capex trends. Momentum factor exposure further aligns with the current market leadership.

Allocating to high-momentum tech and semiconductor sectors to maximize short-term returns driven by AI investment themes.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Strong momentum and AI capex trends support continued outperformance in the near term.
Technology Sector (XLK): 30% - Broad tech exposure benefits from AI infrastructure spending and strong earnings growth.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 30% - Captures the ongoing trend in high-performing sectors, particularly tech and AI-related names.

Key Risks

A sudden reversal in AI sentiment or tech valuations could disproportionately impact the portfolio.
Higher-than-expected inflation data (PCE on May 28) could lead to a spike in yields, pressuring growth stocks.
Concentration risk in the technology sector makes the portfolio vulnerable to sector-specific shocks.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.75,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A sudden reversal in AI sentiment or tech valuations could disproportionately impact the portfolio.",
    "Higher-than-expected inflation data (PCE on May 28) could lead to a spike in yields, pressuring growth stocks.",
    "Concentration risk in the technology sector makes the portfolio vulnerable to sector-specific shocks."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 40,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strong momentum and AI capex trends support continued outperformance in the near term."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "rationale": "Broad tech exposure benefits from AI infrastructure spending and strong earnings growth."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Captures the ongoing trend in high-performing sectors, particularly tech and AI-related names."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology and semiconductors to capitalize on strong AI-driven momentum and capex trends. Momentum factor exposure further aligns with the current market leadership.",
  "provider": "google",
  "rationale_summary": "Allocating to high-momentum tech and semiconductor sectors to maximize short-term returns driven by AI investment themes.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 18638,
    "latency_seconds": 6.557655529992189,
    "output_tokens": 397,
    "total_tokens": 19035
  }
}

OpenAI

GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 40% EWT 25% EWY 20% XLK 10% MTUM 5%

Confidence: 0.34
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio is deliberately tilted toward the strongest short-horizon leadership: semiconductors, AI-linked technology, Taiwan, South Korea, and momentum. For a one-week relative-return contest, recent trend persistence and concentrated exposure to the dominant market theme appear more attractive than defensive diversification.

Semiconductor-linked assets have the best trailing momentum and supportive fundamental data, while financial conditions and credit spreads remain benign enough for risk appetite to persist. The main bet is that AI and chip leadership continues through the May 26 to June 2 close-to-close window.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Strongest liquid thematic exposure to the AI/chip cycle, with exceptional 7-day and 30-day momentum and supportive semiconductor sales data.
Taiwan Equities (EWT): 25% - High beta to global semiconductors and AI hardware, with very strong recent price momentum into the scoring window.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 20% - Explosive near-term and medium-term momentum, likely reflecting semiconductor/export strength and risk-on flows.
Technology Sector (XLK): 10% - Broad US technology exposure adds participation in the same leadership trend with somewhat less single-industry concentration than semiconductors.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 5% - Captures broad trend persistence across recent market leaders during a short one-week horizon.

Key Risks

A hot April PCE inflation release on May 28 could lift yields and trigger a growth-stock and semiconductor selloff.
The very strong recent moves in South Korea, Taiwan, and semiconductors could reverse sharply on profit-taking before the June 2 exit.
Any negative company-specific or supply-chain news in major chip constituents could disproportionately hurt the concentrated portfolio.
A broad risk-off move from weak GDP, corporate profits, or ISM manufacturing data could favor defensive sectors over high-beta technology.
Currency weakness in the Korean won or Taiwan dollar versus the US dollar could reduce US-listed ETF returns.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.34,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A hot April PCE inflation release on May 28 could lift yields and trigger a growth-stock and semiconductor selloff.",
    "The very strong recent moves in South Korea, Taiwan, and semiconductors could reverse sharply on profit-taking before the June 2 exit.",
    "Any negative company-specific or supply-chain news in major chip constituents could disproportionately hurt the concentrated portfolio.",
    "A broad risk-off move from weak GDP, corporate profits, or ISM manufacturing data could favor defensive sectors over high-beta technology.",
    "Currency weakness in the Korean won or Taiwan dollar versus the US dollar could reduce US-listed ETF returns."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 40,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strongest liquid thematic exposure to the AI/chip cycle, with exceptional 7-day and 30-day momentum and supportive semiconductor sales data."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "TAIWAN",
      "rationale": "High beta to global semiconductors and AI hardware, with very strong recent price momentum into the scoring window."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Explosive near-term and medium-term momentum, likely reflecting semiconductor/export strength and risk-on flows."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "rationale": "Broad US technology exposure adds participation in the same leadership trend with somewhat less single-industry concentration than semiconductors."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 5,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Captures broad trend persistence across recent market leaders during a short one-week horizon."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is deliberately tilted toward the strongest short-horizon leadership: semiconductors, AI-linked technology, Taiwan, South Korea, and momentum. For a one-week relative-return contest, recent trend persistence and concentrated exposure to the dominant market theme appear more attractive than defensive diversification.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Semiconductor-linked assets have the best trailing momentum and supportive fundamental data, while financial conditions and credit spreads remain benign enough for risk appetite to persist. The main bet is that AI and chip leadership continues through the May 26 to June 2 close-to-close window.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 16752,
    "latency_seconds": 14.3203537829977,
    "output_tokens": 665,
    "reasoning_tokens": 173,
    "total_tokens": 17417
  }
}

xAI

Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

3 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 50% MTUM 30% XLK 20%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Concentrated tilt to recent momentum leaders in semiconductors and tech to capture short-horizon continuation before the June 2 exit.

Recent semiconductor sales growth and momentum factor strength are the primary near-term positives within the scoring window; allocations favor these over broad market exposure.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 50% - Global chip sales rose sharply in Q1 with continued AI-driven demand likely to support prices into early June.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 30% - Recent 7-day outperformance of 4.83% indicates trend persistence that can extend over the one-week window.
Technology Sector (XLK): 20% - AI capex forecasts and semiconductor strength provide near-term positive sentiment before June 2 close.

Key Risks

Profit-taking after large prior-week gains in SMH and MTUM
Negative surprise in May 28 GDP or PCE releases
Rapid reversal in AI-related sentiment ahead of June 2

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Profit-taking after large prior-week gains in SMH and MTUM",
    "Negative surprise in May 28 GDP or PCE releases",
    "Rapid reversal in AI-related sentiment ahead of June 2"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 50,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Global chip sales rose sharply in Q1 with continued AI-driven demand likely to support prices into early June."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Recent 7-day outperformance of 4.83% indicates trend persistence that can extend over the one-week window."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "rationale": "AI capex forecasts and semiconductor strength provide near-term positive sentiment before June 2 close."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated tilt to recent momentum leaders in semiconductors and tech to capture short-horizon continuation before the June 2 exit.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "Recent semiconductor sales growth and momentum factor strength are the primary near-term positives within the scoring window; allocations favor these over broad market exposure.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 16675,
    "latency_seconds": 6.509177875006571,
    "output_tokens": 336,
    "reasoning_tokens": 648,
    "total_tokens": 17659
  }
}

Public model run

Model Portfolios

This test used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.

Model	Provider	Portfolio	Confidence	Protocol
Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7	Anthropic	SMH35%EWY20%MTUM20%XLK15%IAU10%	0.60	Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro	Google	SMH40%XLK30%MTUM30%	0.75	Portfolio round
GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5	OpenAI	SMH40%EWT25%EWY20%XLK10%MTUM5%	0.34	Portfolio round
Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3	xAI	SMH50%MTUM30%XLK20%	0.55	Portfolio round

Pricing

Starting Prices

Ending prices are intentionally absent until the test is complete.


AEROSPACE_DEFENSE	ITA	2026-05-26	229.49	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
AGGREGATE_BONDS	AGG	2026-05-26	98.72	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
AGRICULTURE	DBA	2026-05-26	27.47	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
AUSTRALIA	EWA	2026-05-26	28.95	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
BIOTECH	XBI	2026-05-26	133.35	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
BITCOIN_ETF	IBIT	2026-05-26	42.99	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
BRAZIL	EWZ	2026-05-26	36.49	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
BROAD_COMMODITIES	PDBC	2026-05-26	17.91	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
CANADA	EWC	2026-05-26	58.7	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
CASH		2026-05-26	1	cash
CHINA	MCHI	2026-05-26	56.1	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
COMMUNICATIONS	XLC	2026-05-26	115.55	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY	XLY	2026-05-26	119.45	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
CONSUMER_STAPLES	XLP	2026-05-26	83.63	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
COPPER	CPER	2026-05-26	39.03	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
DEVELOPED_EX_US	VEA	2026-05-26	71.78	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
DIVIDEND	SCHD	2026-05-26	32.67	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS	EMB	2026-05-26	95.64	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
EMERGING_MARKETS	VWO	2026-05-26	60.23	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
ENERGY	XLE	2026-05-26	57.85	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500	RSP	2026-05-26	207.64	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
ETHEREUM_ETF	ETHA	2026-05-26	15.62	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
EURO	FXE	2026-05-26	107.35	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
EUROPE	VGK	2026-05-26	89.48	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
FINANCIALS	XLF	2026-05-26	51.85	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
GOLD	IAU	2026-05-26	84.81	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
HEALTHCARE	XLV	2026-05-26	148.51	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT	HYG	2026-05-26	80.18	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
INDIA	INDA	2026-05-26	48.55	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
INDUSTRIALS	XLI	2026-05-26	174.3	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY	IEF	2026-05-26	94.28	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
INTERNATIONAL_BONDS	BNDX	2026-05-26	48.23	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT	LQD	2026-05-26	108.78	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
JAPAN	EWJ	2026-05-26	92.9	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
LARGE_GROWTH	IWF	2026-05-26	125.66	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
LARGE_VALUE	IWD	2026-05-26	238.3	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
LONG_TREASURY	TLT	2026-05-26	85.1	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
LOW_VOL	SPLV	2026-05-26	73.88	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
MATERIALS	XLB	2026-05-26	50.99	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
MEXICO	EWW	2026-05-26	78.86	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
MID_CAP	IJH	2026-05-26	74.65	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
MOMENTUM	MTUM	2026-05-26	314.05	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS	MBB	2026-05-26	94.33	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
MUNICIPAL_BONDS	MUB	2026-05-26	106.65	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
NASDAQ100	QQQ	2026-05-26	730.28	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
OIL	USO	2026-05-26	137	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
REAL_ESTATE	XLRE	2026-05-26	44.71	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
REGIONAL_BANKS	KRE	2026-05-26	70.3	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SEMICONDUCTORS	SMH	2026-05-26	602.14	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SHORT_TREASURY	BIL	2026-05-26	91.61	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SILVER	SLV	2026-05-26	69.72	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SMALL_CAP	IWM	2026-05-26	290.51	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SMALL_VALUE	IWN	2026-05-26	214.69	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SOFTWARE	IGV	2026-05-26	94.05	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SOUTH_AFRICA	EZA	2026-05-26	69.81	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SOUTH_KOREA	EWY	2026-05-26	200.65	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
SP500	SPY	2026-05-26	750.59	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
TAIWAN	EWT	2026-05-26	102.14	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
TECHNOLOGY	XLK	2026-05-26	185.14	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
TIPS	TIP	2026-05-26	110.82	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
TOTAL_US_MARKET	VTI	2026-05-26	369.46	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
UNITED_KINGDOM	EWU	2026-05-26	47.42	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
US_DOLLAR	UUP	2026-05-26	27.75	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
UTILITIES	XLU	2026-05-26	45.33	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns
YEN	FXY	2026-05-26	57.63	tiingo_eod_adj_close_from_universe_trailing_returns

Proof

Published Hashes

Test inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.


briefing.md	694f578eb261...e20b7214
manifest.yaml	d07056585858...ac7b60e5
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv	5add8dfc8d90...b23f9078
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json	5ba2fca36fc3...9e3d59c3
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md	039768477602...e14a5d6b
options.yaml	8e07e0a1d099...f15afcb1
prompt.md	946b07610669...42cbd86d