Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +36.79%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 65.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-09 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
20261005-022943-official
31,720 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- Decision date: 2026-10-04
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-05T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-10-02
- Exit date: 2026-10-09
- Entry rule: Use the October 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Exit rule: Use the October 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — October 4, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Friday, October 2.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, the employment-population ratio was 59.2%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported one-month payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
Manufacturing remained in expansion in September. The headline manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Input-price pressure increased: the prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August consumption and inflation data showed nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6% over the month. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual statistical update with revisions extending back to 2021.
The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed to the second-quarter increase.
## Policy, rates, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 2, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.83% at two years, 5.06% at five years, 5.28% at ten years, and 5.63% at thirty years. Compared with September 30, those yields were lower by 8, 5, 3, 1, and 1 basis points, respectively. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
U.S. equities rose on October 2. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,176.96, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to 27,190.86, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% to 2,832.90. Over the full week, the respective changes were -0.3%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -0.2%. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the weekly exit, scheduled releases include September ISM services on October 5, August U.S. trade and the energy outlook on October 6, weekly petroleum data on October 7, and August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8.
Before the monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and retail sales on October 15; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance trade, retail, and wholesale indicators on October 28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. September construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 ET on November 2, after the regular equity-market open.
The current evidence combines slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions with ongoing manufacturing expansion, positive real consumption growth, elevated inflation readings, high manufacturing input-price pressure, and long-term Treasury yields above 5%. Upcoming releases may materially change this mix; their outcomes were unknown at the research cutoff.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-04-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-05T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-05T02:27:08.322040+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the October 2, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
exit_rule: Use the October 9, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH is fixed at 1.0.
entry_date: '2026-10-02'
exit_date: '2026-10-09'
created_at: '2026-10-05T02:27:08.322040+00:00'
notes: 'Weekend decision round using the latest completed U.S. session, Friday October 2, as the entry date. Fresh direct-public-source research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z.'# Market Briefing — October 4, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-10-05T02:27:00Z. The latest completed U.S. session is Friday, October 2.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Current macro picture
September nonfarm payroll employment increased by 29,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.2%. July payroll growth was revised from 21,000 to a decline of 10,000, while August was revised from 162,000 to 133,000; together, the two prior months were revised down by 60,000. Labor-force participation was 61.8%, the employment-population ratio was 59.2%, average hourly earnings increased 0.1% over the month and 3.0% over the year, and the average workweek was 34.4 hours. The September estimate is preliminary, and the reported one-month payroll change was smaller than the statistical-significance threshold described by the reporting agency.
Manufacturing remained in expansion in September. The headline manufacturing diffusion index was 54.5, with production at 56.7, new orders at 55.3, order backlogs at 56.4, and employment at 52.7. Input-price pressure increased: the prices index rose 6.8 points to 77.9. Survey commentary was more cautious than the index readings, with 60% of comments categorized as negative and recurring concern about pricing volatility, trade policy, and geopolitical disruption.
August consumption and inflation data showed nominal consumer spending up 0.9% and real spending up 0.6% over the month. Personal income rose 0.2%, disposable income rose 0.3%, and the saving rate was 4.1%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% over the month and 3.4% over the year; excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% over the month and 3.0% over the year. These data incorporated an annual statistical update with revisions extending back to 2021.
The third estimate of second-quarter real GDP was a 2.2% annualized increase after revised 2.5% growth in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed to the second-quarter increase.
## Policy, rates, and markets
At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote. Median participant projections for 2026 were 2.3% real GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. Those projections are conditional individual assessments rather than a promised policy path.
On October 2, constant-maturity Treasury yields were 4.46% at one year, 4.83% at two years, 5.06% at five years, 5.28% at ten years, and 5.63% at thirty years. Compared with September 30, those yields were lower by 8, 5, 3, 1, and 1 basis points, respectively. The figures are interpolated from indicative bid quotations rather than transaction prices.
U.S. equities rose on October 2. The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to 7,722.72, the Dow gained 0.5% to 51,176.96, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% to 27,190.86, and the Russell 2000 gained 0.9% to 2,832.90. Over the full week, the respective changes were -0.3%, -1.3%, +0.5%, and -0.2%. Official entry prices for this round are supplied separately in the frozen CapitalBench price file.
Commercial U.S. crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels in the week ending September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable week a year earlier. Weekly inventory estimates are survey based and may be revised.
The European Central Bank raised its three key policy rates by 25 basis points in September, placing the deposit rate at 2.50%. Its baseline projected 2026 headline inflation of 3.0% and growth of 0.9%, while identifying upside inflation risks and downside growth risks.
## Events within the horizons
Before the weekly exit, scheduled releases include September ISM services on October 5, August U.S. trade and the energy outlook on October 6, weekly petroleum data on October 7, and August wholesale sales and inventories on October 8.
Before the monthly exit, the calendar also includes September CPI on October 14; September PPI and retail sales on October 15; housing starts on October 20; durable-goods orders and new-home sales on October 27; an FOMC meeting on October 27-28; advance trade, retail, and wholesale indicators on October 28; advance third-quarter GDP and September PCE data on October 29; and the Employment Cost Index on October 30. September construction spending is scheduled for 10:00 ET on November 2, after the regular equity-market open.
The current evidence combines slower payroll growth and downward employment revisions with ongoing manufacturing expansion, positive real consumption growth, elevated inflation readings, high manufacturing input-price pressure, and long-term Treasury yields above 5%. Upcoming releases may materially change this mix; their outcomes were unknown at the research cutoff.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"files": {
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-04-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Edges are thin. The best risk-adjusted reversal candidates are oversold low-beta defensives: Healthcare (deep relative pullback, zero beta, strong quality score) and Gold (sharp drop into a soft payroll print with yields easing and inflation at 3.4%), both marginally above 55% probability. High yield shows a volume dislocation but low beta limits its excess return, so it falls just below eligibility. Extended tech/semis, crypto, and stretched Brazil lack in-window support; Utilities, South Africa and defense look like persistent downtrends rather than overreactions. Overall SPY near highs with narrow breadth leaves a mild preference for the benchmark.
Macro mix is stagflationary-leaning: payrolls weak (29k, prior months revised down 60k) but inflation elevated (PCE 3.4%, ISM prices 77.9), Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% and 10y at 5.28%. SPY sits within 1% of its 52-week high while breadth is narrow (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions, only 26% of assets positive over 5 sessions). Leadership is concentrated in semis/tech; defensives, duration, credit and precious metals have been sold. With yields easing slightly after the soft payroll print and only second-tier data (ISM services, trade, wholesale) before exit, a modest mean-reversion in oversold low-beta pockets is plausible, but the regime offers limited high-conviction edge versus SPY.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"ISM services on Oct 5 prints hot on prices, pushing yields and the dollar higher and hurting gold, healthcare rotation, and credit",
"Semiconductor/mega-cap leadership extends further, leaving defensive and reversal names lagging SPY",
"Risk-off shock from weak labor data widens credit spreads, hurting HYG and high-beta EM candidates",
"Dollar strength continues (UUP +2.56% over 21 sessions), pressuring precious metals and EM equities"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.43% with prior active only -1.98% and recent pullback rank 0.896; highest slate quality score 0.688",
"Horizon vol 13.99% with near-zero SPY beta (0.01) and shallow 4.56% drawdown; only 5% below 52w high",
"No sector-specific catalyst in the briefing; weak payrolls and lower yields favor defensive rotation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IAU -3.36% over 5 sessions and -5.57% over 21 sessions, 23% below 52w high; recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Treasury yields fell 1-8bp after a soft payroll print (29k, -60k revisions) while PCE inflation runs 3.4%",
"Volume z -0.32 suggests selling not climactic; dollar strength (+2.56% 21s) is the headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.13 with -1.00% recent active and -2.64% prior active; lowest horizon vol in slate at 3.88%",
"Yields eased 1-8bp on Oct 2 after soft payrolls; quality score 0.689 is the slate's highest",
"Low beta (0.21) caps upside versus SPY if equities rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY within 0.81% of 52w high, +0.83% over 21 sessions despite narrow breadth",
"Benchmark for scoring"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +1.67% with recent active -2.46%; only 4.61% below 52w high",
"ISM manufacturing 54.5 with new orders 55.3 and prices 77.9 supports industrial metal demand",
"Dollar +2.56% over 21 sessions and China equities weak (-22% from high) are headwinds; vol 27.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.59% following prior active -5.23%; 17.84% below 52w high, drawdown 8.21%",
"Prior active rank only 0.179, indicating a persistent downtrend rather than a one-off shock",
"Volume z 0.64; no defense-specific catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +9.13% and recent active +4.19%, prior active rank 0.985 but pullback rank 0.000 (most extended)",
"Beta 2.38 and vol 30.4%; volume z -0.60 shows rally on fading volume",
"No in-window semiconductor catalyst supplied; 5.73% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -7.78%, 14.81% below 52w high, worst prior active rank in universe (0.030)",
"Volume z 6.89 with recent active +1.03% hints at capitulation, but 30y yield at 5.63% and Fed hiking remain structural headwinds",
"Quality score 0.143"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.85% after prior active -4.84%; drawdown 9.35%, 11.2% below 52w high",
"Dollar +2.56% over 21 sessions pressures EM currencies; ISM commentary cites trade-policy concern",
"Volume z 0.42, no clear capitulation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.57%, recent active +0.56%; still 33% below 52w high",
"Vol 43% with volume z -0.48; Fed hiking and higher yields are headwinds for liquidity-sensitive assets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.46% (top rank 1.000) but recent active -0.76%; 43.8% below 52w high",
"Vol 45.75%, volume z -0.62; no crypto catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.63% (pullback rank 1.000) after prior active -2.63%; 48% below 52w high, drawdown 10.24%",
"Vol 38.9% and beta 1.65; strong dollar and Fed hike weigh on precious metals",
"Volume z 0.14 shows no capitulation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.73% after prior active -6.07%; 20.9% below 52w high with 12.48% drawdown",
"Prior active rank 0.090 and quality score 0.366; gold and dollar trends both adverse",
"Vol 26.4%, beta 1.45"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +4.72% (active +3.94%) on volume z 1.81, but prior active -4.39% and pullback rank 0.015 (most stretched)",
"Quality score 0.212, lowest in slate; no Brazil-specific catalyst in briefing",
"Strong dollar (+2.56% 21s) is a headwind for EM equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"GOLD"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro mix is stagflationary-leaning: payrolls weak (29k, prior months revised down 60k) but inflation elevated (PCE 3.4%, ISM prices 77.9), Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% and 10y at 5.28%. SPY sits within 1% of its 52-week high while breadth is narrow (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions, only 26% of assets positive over 5 sessions). Leadership is concentrated in semis/tech; defensives, duration, credit and precious metals have been sold. With yields easing slightly after the soft payroll print and only second-tier data (ISM services, trade, wholesale) before exit, a modest mean-reversion in oversold low-beta pockets is plausible, but the regime offers limited high-conviction edge versus SPY.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"GOLD",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Edges are thin. The best risk-adjusted reversal candidates are oversold low-beta defensives: Healthcare (deep relative pullback, zero beta, strong quality score) and Gold (sharp drop into a soft payroll print with yields easing and inflation at 3.4%), both marginally above 55% probability. High yield shows a volume dislocation but low beta limits its excess return, so it falls just below eligibility. Extended tech/semis, crypto, and stretched Brazil lack in-window support; Utilities, South Africa and defense look like persistent downtrends rather than overreactions. Overall SPY near highs with narrow breadth leaves a mild preference for the benchmark.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro mix is stagflationary-leaning: payrolls weak (29k, prior months revised down 60k) but inflation elevated (PCE 3.4%, ISM prices 77.9), Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% and 10y at 5.28%. SPY sits within 1% of its 52-week high while breadth is narrow (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions, only 26% of assets positive over 5 sessions). Leadership is concentrated in semis/tech; defensives, duration, credit and precious metals have been sold. With yields easing slightly after the soft payroll print and only second-tier data (ISM services, trade, wholesale) before exit, a modest mean-reversion in oversold low-beta pockets is plausible, but the regime offers limited high-conviction edge versus SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27827,
"latency_seconds": 51.00641482498031,
"output_tokens": 4289,
"total_tokens": 32116
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
Only Healthcare qualifies under the portfolio rule: it is a low-beta, high-quality pullback without a sector-specific negative catalyst in the briefing. Its edge is marginal at a 55% probability of beating SPY. The other candidates either have deteriorating macro drivers (strong dollar, high real yields) or show momentum without independent support, so the remaining slots default to SPY.
Active-return dispersion is moderate at 1.81%, and only 26% of assets rose over the week. Long yields sit above 5%, the dollar is strong, and gold and TLT are weak. The Fed hiked into elevated PCE inflation while payrolls softened. Breadth is narrow, with RSP 4.5% behind SPY over 21 sessions and tech leading. No dominant reversal or continuation signal is clear before the ISM services release on Oct 5.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A strong ISM services print could lift high-beta tech, leaving low-beta Healthcare behind",
"A further rise in yields could hurt defensive sectors",
"Narrow market leadership could keep favoring mega-cap tech"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.688 with recent pullback rank 0.896",
"-2.43% active over 5 sessions with no sector-specific negative news in the briefing",
"Near-zero SPY beta and only -5.05% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, -0.81% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.13 alongside a -2.78% 21-session return",
"Beta 0.21 limits upside versus equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+4.19% active over 5 sessions, +9.13% prior",
"Beta 2.38 and 30% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ISM manufacturing at 54.5 with prices index 77.9",
"Strong dollar is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Real yields high, with the 10-year at 5.28%",
"UUP +2.56% over 21 sessions; IAU -5.57%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+3.94% active on volume z 1.81",
"Quality score 0.212"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"43% volatility",
"-33% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.23% prior active, a persistent downtrend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"45.75% volatility, -43.8% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong dollar; -4.84% prior active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.89 with long yields above 5%",
"-7.78% prior active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-48% from 52w high with 38.9% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Tied to precious metals and a strong dollar; quality score 0.366"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Active-return dispersion is moderate at 1.81%, and only 26% of assets rose over the week. Long yields sit above 5%, the dollar is strong, and gold and TLT are weak. The Fed hiked into elevated PCE inflation while payrolls softened. Breadth is narrow, with RSP 4.5% behind SPY over 21 sessions and tech leading. No dominant reversal or continuation signal is clear before the ISM services release on Oct 5.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"SP500",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only Healthcare qualifies under the portfolio rule: it is a low-beta, high-quality pullback without a sector-specific negative catalyst in the briefing. Its edge is marginal at a 55% probability of beating SPY. The other candidates either have deteriorating macro drivers (strong dollar, high real yields) or show momentum without independent support, so the remaining slots default to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Active-return dispersion is moderate at 1.81%, and only 26% of assets rose over the week. Long yields sit above 5%, the dollar is strong, and gold and TLT are weak. The Fed hiked into elevated PCE inflation while payrolls softened. Breadth is narrow, with RSP 4.5% behind SPY over 21 sessions and tech leading. No dominant reversal or continuation signal is clear before the ISM services release on Oct 5.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27827,
"latency_seconds": 25.20064628799446,
"output_tokens": 2969,
"total_tokens": 30796
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent sharp pullbacks (shock_reversal) but maintain reasonable quality scores, anticipating a mean-reversion bounce over the one-week horizon.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with slower payroll growth and downward revisions contrasting with ongoing manufacturing expansion and positive real consumption growth. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated above 5%.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields could negatively impact non-yielding assets like precious metals.",
"Upcoming economic data releases (ISM services, CPI, PPI) could introduce volatility and alter the current market narrative."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -5.63%",
"Quality score of 0.584"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -4.73%",
"Quality score of 0.366"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -3.14%",
"Quality score of 0.549"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.85%",
"Quality score of 0.451"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.59%",
"Quality score of 0.453"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 11.46%",
"Quality score of 0.664"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 4.19%",
"Prior active return of 9.13%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 7.57%",
"Quality score of 0.539"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of 3.94%",
"Volume z-score of 1.81"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 6.13",
"Quality score of 0.689"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.43%",
"Quality score of 0.688"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.46%",
"Quality score of 0.685"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 6.89",
"Prior active return of -7.78%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 30,
"SILVER": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with slower payroll growth and downward revisions contrasting with ongoing manufacturing expansion and positive real consumption growth. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated above 5%.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent sharp pullbacks (shock_reversal) but maintain reasonable quality scores, anticipating a mean-reversion bounce over the one-week horizon.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with slower payroll growth and downward revisions contrasting with ongoing manufacturing expansion and positive real consumption growth. Long-term Treasury yields remain elevated above 5%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19067,
"latency_seconds": 21.021095951029565,
"output_tokens": 2889,
"total_tokens": 21956
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Copper has the clearest combination of prior relative resilience, a meaningful pullback and independent manufacturing support. Healthcare offers a smaller defensive reversal edge against weakening labor data. Only those two meet the overreaction eligibility threshold; gold's recovery case remains too uncertain, leaving the unused portfolio slot in SPY. Quality scores are treated as price-based evidence rather than business-quality verification.
Weak payrolls and downward revisions favor selective pullback recovery, but manufacturing expansion, elevated input prices and recent policy tightening argue against a broad reversal. Only 26.09% of assets rose over five sessions, while active-return dispersion was 1.81 percentage points. Copper and healthcare offer modest reversal edges; neither recent technology leadership nor extreme precious-metal losses alone establishes a reliable one-week advantage. Services and trade releases can change the balance before October 9.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 5 services data could strengthen inflation and rate concerns or reveal a sharper demand slowdown, undermining the selected reversal theses.",
"Persistent dollar appreciation and high real-rate pressure could overwhelm copper's manufacturing support.",
"Healthcare has no supplied sector-specific catalyst; its pullback may persist despite defensive macro characteristics.",
"Renewed concentrated technology leadership could cause both eligible candidates to lag SPY."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.46% after prior active strength of 1.67%; quality score was 0.685.",
"Manufacturing production of 56.7 and new orders of 55.3 provide demand support independent of price history.",
"Volume z-score of -0.30 does not suggest unusually heavy selling, although 27.53% volatility limits conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.43% accompanies a 0.688 quality score and a relatively contained 4.56% drawdown.",
"Payroll growth of 29,000 and downward revisions support a defensive relative-demand hypothesis.",
"Near-zero measured SPY beta and ordinary volume distinguish this pullback from high-beta liquidation; no sector-specific deterioration is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were -3.14% and -3.35%, showing persistent weakness rather than an isolated shock.",
"Weak employment and slightly lower Treasury yields offer a recovery channel.",
"The dollar gained 2.56% over 21 sessions, while the Fed raised rates and ten-year yields remained 5.28%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The slate's deepest recent active loss was 5.63%, but prior active return was also negative at -2.63%.",
"Manufacturing expansion offers industrial-demand support, offset by dollar strength and policy tightening.",
"Volatility of 38.87% and a 10.24% drawdown make a large rebound possible without making it probable."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 11.46% was followed by a modest 0.76% relative pullback.",
"The 0.664 quality score incorporates prior strength, but volatility is 45.75%.",
"No crypto-specific catalyst is supplied; the recent Fed hike remains a liquidity headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active strength of 4.19% follows prior outperformance of 9.13%.",
"Manufacturing expansion supports cyclicals generally, but no semiconductor-specific earnings or demand catalyst is supplied.",
"SPY beta of 2.38, volume z-score of -0.60 and high long-term yields weaken the case for extrapolation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY's five-session return was -0.22%, with a 2.47% measured drawdown.",
"Real consumption grew 0.6%, but weak payrolls and elevated inflation provide conflicting broad-market signals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.689 reflects low volatility and comparatively shallow drawdown, not supplied issuer fundamentals.",
"Volume z-score of 6.13 accompanies negative recent and prior relative returns.",
"Slower employment can pressure credit, while ongoing consumption growth reduces the case for severe deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -2.59% follows prior weakness of -5.23%.",
"Drawdown was 8.21% and quality score was 0.453.",
"Geopolitical disruption appears in survey concerns, but no dated procurement or company catalyst supports a near-term reversal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active strength of 7.57% and recent strength of 0.56% lack a supplied independent crypto catalyst.",
"Volatility was 43.23%, with volume below baseline.",
"Recent policy tightening conflicts with a straightforward liquidity-led continuation thesis."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gain of 1.03% follows prior active loss of 7.78%; quality score is only 0.143.",
"Volume z-score of 6.89 identifies unusual activity but not its direction or cause.",
"Weak payrolls support defensive demand, while long yields above 5% constrain rate-sensitive valuations."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.7,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.85% follows prior loss of 4.84%, with a 9.35% drawdown.",
"Trade-policy concerns and weak U.S. employment challenge a trade-linked recovery thesis.",
"October 6 trade data are within the window, but their direction is unknown."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gain of 3.94% reversed prior active weakness of 4.39%.",
"Elevated volume of 1.81 standard deviations does not establish a fundamental catalyst.",
"Quality score is 0.212, and dollar strength remains a risk for emerging-market exposure."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 4.73% extends prior weakness of 6.07%.",
"Drawdown of 12.48% and quality score of 0.366 weaken the isolated-overreaction hypothesis.",
"Dollar strength and precious-metal weakness challenge resource and currency exposure; no local reversal catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.55,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"COPPER": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"COPPER",
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Weak payrolls and downward revisions favor selective pullback recovery, but manufacturing expansion, elevated input prices and recent policy tightening argue against a broad reversal. Only 26.09% of assets rose over five sessions, while active-return dispersion was 1.81 percentage points. Copper and healthcare offer modest reversal edges; neither recent technology leadership nor extreme precious-metal losses alone establishes a reliable one-week advantage. Services and trade releases can change the balance before October 9.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"COPPER",
"HEALTHCARE",
"GOLD"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Copper has the clearest combination of prior relative resilience, a meaningful pullback and independent manufacturing support. Healthcare offers a smaller defensive reversal edge against weakening labor data. Only those two meet the overreaction eligibility threshold; gold's recovery case remains too uncertain, leaving the unused portfolio slot in SPY. Quality scores are treated as price-based evidence rather than business-quality verification.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak payrolls and downward revisions favor selective pullback recovery, but manufacturing expansion, elevated input prices and recent policy tightening argue against a broad reversal. Only 26.09% of assets rose over five sessions, while active-return dispersion was 1.81 percentage points. Copper and healthcare offer modest reversal edges; neither recent technology leadership nor extreme precious-metal losses alone establishes a reliable one-week advantage. Services and trade releases can change the balance before October 9.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15859,
"latency_seconds": 46.13593067496549,
"output_tokens": 3211,
"reasoning_tokens": 120,
"total_tokens": 19070
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Rank prioritizes recent positive momentum in semiconductors and Brazil while treating most shock_reversal names as lacking independent support for outperformance.
Mixed signals from weak payrolls offset by manufacturing expansion and rate hike; limited one-week edge outside select continuation and pullback names.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"weakening labor data may pressure equities",
"elevated manufacturing input prices could limit upside",
"upcoming CPI and FOMC events add volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"3.91% recent return vs SPY",
"prior active 9.13%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"4.72% recent return",
"volume z 1.81"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.85% recent return",
"prior active 7.57%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.71% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 6.13",
"quality score 0.689"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 6.89",
"0.30% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.688",
"-2.67% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.685",
"-1.03% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 11.46%",
"vol 45.75%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.453",
"-0.72% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.33% recent return",
"quality score 0.451"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.549",
"-0.73% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.584",
"-1.33% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 24,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.366",
"-2.56% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 21,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 24,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 21,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals from weak payrolls offset by manufacturing expansion and rate hike; limited one-week edge outside select continuation and pullback names.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"BITCOIN_ETF"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Rank prioritizes recent positive momentum in semiconductors and Brazil while treating most shock_reversal names as lacking independent support for outperformance.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals from weak payrolls offset by manufacturing expansion and rate hike; limited one-week edge outside select continuation and pullback names.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"output_tokens": 1915,
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}xai-grok-4-5
Low dispersion and mixed signals favor limited reversal exposure in high-quality pullbacks (healthcare, gold, HY) that meet overreaction+55% criteria; most slate names lack sufficient one-week edge versus SPY so unused slots default to benchmark.
Low cross-sectional dispersion with weak breadth, sticky inflation and soft payrolls after a 25bp hike, mixed manufacturing strength vs price pressures; tech/semi continuation coexists with precious-metal and select EM pullbacks that may reverse over one week.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky PCE inflation and manufacturing prices index at 77.9 could extend rate pressure and hurt duration-sensitive reversals",
"Soft payrolls with downward revisions may trigger risk-off that hits EM and metals harder than expected",
"High-beta continuation names (semis, crypto) could reverse sharply if ISM services disappoints",
"Volume dislocations in HYG/XLU may reflect liquidity stress rather than clean mean-reversion"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.43% with high quality evidence score 0.688",
"Near-zero SPY beta and correlation, defensive sector profile",
"Shallow 21s drawdown relative to pullback depth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -3.14% after prior -3.35%, quality pullback rank 0.970",
"Low SPY corr 0.38 amid elevated real yields and inflation data",
"52w distance -23% with shock_reversal lane"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.13 dislocation with quality score 0.689",
"Low horizon vol 3.88% and shallow drawdown",
"Active -1.00% after prior weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Largest recent pullback rank 1.000 and active -5.63%",
"High vol 38.87% but shock_reversal setup",
"Quality score 0.584"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence 0.685 with recent pullback rank 0.910",
"Prior active +1.67% then -2.46% active",
"Industrial demand context from manufacturing expansion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.85% with pullback rank 0.955",
"Moderate vol and beta near 0.9",
"Shock_reversal lane after prior weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.59% and pullback rank 0.940",
"Horizon vol 13.83% lower than many cyclicals",
"Quality score 0.453"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -4.73% with extreme pullback rank 0.985",
"High vol and deep drawdown -12.48%",
"EM resource sensitivity"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.91% and prior active +9.13%",
"Strong medium-strength lane but high beta 2.38",
"Near 52w high distance -5.73%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +4.72% active +3.94% with volume z 1.81",
"Low quality score 0.212 and prior active negative",
"Commodity-linked EM exposure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.57% with medium_strength",
"High vol 43% and distance to high -33%",
"Low SPY corr 0.37"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.46% but recent active -0.76%",
"Highest prior rank yet extreme vol 45.75%",
"Distance to high -43.81%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.89 extreme but quality score only 0.143",
"Prior active -7.78% and deep drawdown",
"Low beta to SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 0.71% recent return and low 10.74% vol",
"Near 52w high -0.81%",
"Positive asset share only 26%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"GOLD",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Low cross-sectional dispersion with weak breadth, sticky inflation and soft payrolls after a 25bp hike, mixed manufacturing strength vs price pressures; tech/semi continuation coexists with precious-metal and select EM pullbacks that may reverse over one week.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"GOLD",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Low dispersion and mixed signals favor limited reversal exposure in high-quality pullbacks (healthcare, gold, HY) that meet overreaction+55% criteria; most slate names lack sufficient one-week edge versus SPY so unused slots default to benchmark.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Low cross-sectional dispersion with weak breadth, sticky inflation and soft payrolls after a 25bp hike, mixed manufacturing strength vs price pressures; tech/semi continuation coexists with precious-metal and select EM pullbacks that may reverse over one week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 47.08387428300921,
"output_tokens": 2845,
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}xai-grok-4-6
Narrow leadership, SPY near highs, and a just-tightened Fed argue for the benchmark over high-vol shocks. Semis and Brazil have the only clear short-horizon price support, while healthcare is the cleanest quality pullback, but none of the continuation names are labeled overreaction so the constructed rule should remain in SPY.
Five-session active dispersion is only 1.81% with 26% of assets positive; SPY is 0.81% from a 52-week high after a 0.71% bounce while equal-weight lagged. Policy rates were just hiked, long yields remain above 5%, and the dollar was firm, so mega-cap/tech continuation coexists with commodity and EM shock-reversal candidates rather than a clean one-week trend.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"ISM services Oct 5 and trade/energy data Oct 6-7 can reverse one-week factor leadership.",
"Elevated manufacturing input prices (77.9) and PCE 3.4% y/y keep rates and the dollar bid against metals and EM.",
"Semiconductor beta 2.38 and crypto/metal vols above 38% can produce large negative excess even if the directional call is right.",
"HYG and utilities volume spikes may reflect stress rather than a durable bid."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +9.13% with recent active +4.19% and 52w-high distance only -5.73%.",
"Nasdaq Composite +1.2% on Oct 2 versus SPY +0.7%, consistent with growth/tech leadership.",
"Horizon vol 30.43% and beta 2.38 imply large tracking error versus SPY over one week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +4.72% and active +3.94% with volume z 1.81.",
"Prior 16-session active was -4.39%, so the bounce is short-horizon rather than a long trend.",
"Quality evidence score 0.212 is among the weakest on the slate."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -2.67% and active -2.43% with quality evidence score 0.688, highest among slate equities.",
"SPY corr ~0.00 and beta ~0.01, so a sector bounce can beat SPY without market beta.",
"52w-high distance -5.05% is modest versus EM/metal shocks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -3.14% with recent pullback rank 0.970 in quality table.",
"UUP 5-session +0.94% and 21-session +2.56% coincide with IAU 5-session -3.36%.",
"Corr to SPY 0.38 and beta 0.84 keep one-week excess relatively independent."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.689 with vol 3.88% and max drawdown -2.92%.",
"Volume z 6.13 flags dislocation but HYG 5-session -1.22% and 21-session -2.78% trail a firm equity tape.",
"Beta 0.21 versus SPY near highs limits upside in a one-week equity-up path."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.7,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.685 with recent pullback rank 0.910 after active -2.46%.",
"Prior 16-session active +1.67% argues pullback rather than broken trend.",
"Manufacturing PMI 54.5 with prices index 77.9 is mixed for industrial metals over one week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.85% and recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Vol 18.75% and beta 0.89 are milder than South Africa or silver.",
"Quality score 0.451 with 52w-high distance -11.20%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -2.59% after prior 16-session active -5.23%; pullback rank 0.940.",
"Horizon vol 13.83% is the lowest among shock-reversal equities on the slate.",
"Corr 0.48 and 52w-high distance -17.84% leave residual event risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -5.63% with recent pullback rank 1.000 and 52w-high distance -48.16%.",
"Horizon vol 38.87% and beta 1.65 dominate one-week excess versus SPY.",
"Quality score 0.584 is pullback-driven, not low-vol support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +7.57% but recent active only +0.56% with volume z -0.48.",
"Vol 43.23% and 52w-high distance -33.05% imply noisy one-week tracking.",
"Corr to SPY 0.37 is low but not a catalyst for the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +11.46% but recent return -0.84% and volume z -0.62.",
"Vol 45.75% is the highest on the slate.",
"52w-high distance -43.81% shows residual drawdown after the prior surge."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY +0.71% on Oct 2 to 7,722.72, 52w-high distance -0.81%.",
"Five-session SPY return -0.22% with 21-session +0.83%.",
"Benchmark by construction; excess versus itself is zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -4.73% and prior 16-session active -6.07% with max drawdown -12.48%.",
"Quality score 0.366 and 52w-high distance -20.92%.",
"Vol 26.37% and beta 1.45 raise chance the lag persists rather than mean-reverts in one week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.89 with quality evidence score 0.143, lowest on the slate.",
"Prior 16-session active -7.78% despite recent +0.30% / active +1.03%.",
"Ten-year yield still 5.28% after a 25 bp September hike, a headwind for rate-sensitive defensives."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"GOLD",
"MEXICO",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BRAZIL",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"HEALTHCARE",
"COPPER",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active dispersion is only 1.81% with 26% of assets positive; SPY is 0.81% from a 52-week high after a 0.71% bounce while equal-weight lagged. Policy rates were just hiked, long yields remain above 5%, and the dollar was firm, so mega-cap/tech continuation coexists with commodity and EM shock-reversal candidates rather than a clean one-week trend.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"HEALTHCARE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Narrow leadership, SPY near highs, and a just-tightened Fed argue for the benchmark over high-vol shocks. Semis and Brazil have the only clear short-horizon price support, while healthcare is the cleanest quality pullback, but none of the continuation names are labeled overreaction so the constructed rule should remain in SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active dispersion is only 1.81% with 26% of assets positive; SPY is 0.81% from a 52-week high after a 0.71% bounce while equal-weight lagged. Policy rates were just hiked, long yields remain above 5%, and the dollar was firm, so mega-cap/tech continuation coexists with commodity and EM shock-reversal candidates rather than a clean one-week trend.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-04-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17239,
"latency_seconds": 44.2966235440108,
"output_tokens": 2854,
"reasoning_tokens": 601,
"total_tokens": 20694
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Gold (IAU)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Silver (SLV)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)35%Gold (IAU)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Copper (CPER)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Gold (IAU)35%High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-10-02 | 207.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-10-02 | 89.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-10-02 | 28.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-10-02 | 28.32 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-10-02 | 124.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-10-02 | 154.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-10-02 | 47.73 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-10-02 | 38.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-10-02 | 66.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-10-02 | 19.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-10-02 | 58.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-10-02 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-10-02 | 51.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-10-02 | 110.32 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-10-02 | 110.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-10-02 | 80.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-10-02 | 39.52 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-10-02 | 147.37 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-10-02 | 104.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-10-02 | 71.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-10-02 | 90.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-10-02 | 59.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-10-02 | 62.82 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-10-02 | 209.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-10-02 | 20.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-10-02 | 103.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-10-02 | 86.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-10-02 | 53.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-10-02 | 77.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-10-02 | 166.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-10-02 | 76.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-10-02 | 46.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-10-02 | 169.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-10-02 | 89.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-10-02 | 46.86 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-10-02 | 101.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-10-02 | 98.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-10-02 | 58.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-10-02 | 77.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-10-02 | 48.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-10-02 | 105.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-10-02 | 71.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-10-02 | 100.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-10-02 | 749.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-10-02 | 40.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-10-02 | 70.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-10-02 | 769.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-10-02 | 630.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-10-02 | 91.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-10-02 | 54.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-10-02 | 108.43 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-10-02 | 44.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-10-02 | 63.19 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-10-02 | 191.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-10-02 | 116.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-10-02 | 199.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-10-02 | 377.99 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-10-02 | 104.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-10-02 | 46.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-10-02 | 94.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-10-02 | 32.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-10-02 | 28.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-10-02 | 127.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-10-02 | 249.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-10-02 | 70.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-10-02 | 73.39 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-10-02 | 322.88 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-10-02 | 281.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-10-02 | 212.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-10-02 | 39.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 2be55e79cbac...8466e8c5 |
| manifest.yaml | 993c872945da...8f6035c6 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 2564e1ab0296...895140b2 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | b4e2ef36c58f...b9599e14 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 0b341d73559c...d67a86cd |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 79658091bf1c...2a104d39 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 1ce57a15f7c1...d9eb7c10 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | d831c8855500...6929f6c7 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |