Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 78.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +38.00% to growth and technology, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +45.00%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +86.00% to the top 20% of assets by prior 30-day return. The strongest 30-day asset in the input table was Biotechnology (XBI).
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
7 public audit hashes are available.
5 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-02 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
7 artifacts published.
official-20260625-no-fable
46,773 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical price-context table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and price-context table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to allocate to an option. When recent performance matters to a holding, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- If a holding rationale cites momentum, recent returns, or trailing performance, do not present price history alone as independent evidence. Mention any independent support present in the briefing, or state that support is limited, and include the relevant reversal or positioning risk in key_risks.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-06-25-1W
- Decision date: 2026-06-25
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-06-26T02:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-06-25
- Exit date: 2026-07-02
- Scoring window: 2026-06-25 to 2026-07-02; optimize for this one week window only.
- Close-to-close scoring: the entry price is the adjusted close on the entry date, and the exit price is the adjusted close on the exit date after regular trading ends.
- Timeline focus: prioritize facts, catalysts, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before the exit close.
- Input-bias control: treat fact inclusion, section order, grouping, and price-context table order as context, not recommendations; do not infer expected return from mention count or placement.
- Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to select or allocate to an option.
- Continuation evidence: when a holding or selection relies on recent price strength, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close. Do not invent support that is not in the input.
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, June 25, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 2, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Submission format: portfolio
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
- Portfolio holdings allowed: 1-5
- Portfolio allocation increment: 5%
- Portfolio minimum allocation: 5%
- Portfolio total allocation: 100%
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. Market Close
- On June 25, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,357.49, down 0.73 points, or less than 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,920.62, up 71.72 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,358.60, down 118.03 points, or 0.5%. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,007.86, up 21.23 points, or 0.7%.
- Through the June 25 close, week-to-date index moves were: S&P 500 down 1.9%, Dow up 0.7%, Nasdaq down 4.4%, Russell 2000 up 0.9%.
- Through the June 25 close, year-to-date index moves were: S&P 500 up 7.5%, Dow up 8.0%, Nasdaq up 9.1%, Russell 2000 up 21.2%.
## U.S. Macro Data
- May 2026 personal income increased $181.6 billion, or 0.7% month over month. Disposable personal income increased $164.9 billion, or 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures increased $156.1 billion, or 0.7%.
- May 2026 real disposable personal income increased 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- May 2026 PCE prices were up 4.1% from a year earlier. PCE prices excluding food and energy were up 3.4% from a year earlier.
- Q1 2026 real GDP increased at a 2.1% annual rate in the third estimate, compared with a 0.5% increase in Q4 2025. The third estimate revised real GDP up 0.5 percentage point from the prior estimate.
- Q1 2026 real GDI increased 1.2%. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.7%.
- Q1 2026 profits from current production increased $74.4 billion.
- Initial unemployment claims were 215,000 for the week ending June 20, 2026, down 12,000 from the revised prior-week level of 227,000. The four-week moving average was 224,250, up 750 from the prior revised average.
- May 2026 manufactured durable-goods new orders decreased $15.6 billion, or 4.5%, to $332.1 billion after an 8.5% April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3%; excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6%.
- May 2026 durable-goods shipments increased $3.2 billion, or 1.0%, to $327.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $9.2 billion, or 0.6%, to $1,579.5 billion. Inventories increased $0.9 billion, or 0.2%, to $600.0 billion.
- May 2026 CPI rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% year over year. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month over month and 2.9% year over year.
- May 2026 PPI for final demand rose 1.1% month over month and 6.5% year over year. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.8% month over month and 5.1% year over year.
- May 2026 nonfarm payroll employment rose by 172,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.3%.
## Rates And Policy Calendar
- The Federal Reserve's June 25 H.15 release showed latest available Treasury constant maturity observations for June 24, 2026: 2-year 4.11%, 5-year 4.17%, 10-year 4.41%, 20-year 4.87%, and 30-year 4.86%. The effective federal funds rate was 3.63% and the bank prime loan rate was 6.75%.
- On June 17, 2026, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is July 28-29, 2026. Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting are scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
## Energy, Commodities, And Crypto
- For the week ending June 19, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels, about 7% below the five-year average.
- Gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels and were 5% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels and were 10% below the five-year average.
- U.S. crude refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day for the week ending June 19, down 81,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Refineries operated at 96.1% capacity utilization.
- On June 25, front-month Comex gold futures rose 1.01% to $4,030.50 per ounce and silver rose 0.51% to $58.348 per ounce.
- Bitcoin was quoted at $59,860 at 5:53 PM EDT on June 25, 2026, up 1.11% from the previous close. The displayed 52-week range was $58,065 to $126,273.
## Business Activity And Global Data
- The June 2026 flash U.S. Composite Output PMI was 52.2, up from 51.5 in May. The flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI was 55.7, up from 55.1 and a 49-month high. The flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index was 51.3, up from 50.7 and a four-month high. The release also reported lower employment and elevated price inflation.
- The Eurozone flash composite PMI rose from 48.5 in May to 49.5 in June and remained below 50.0.
- Japan's flash composite output PMI rose from 51.1 in May to 52.5 in June.
- HSBC/S&P Global flash India PMI data indicated robust but softer growth in June, slower demand growth, a softer expansion in employment, receding inflation pressures, and downgraded growth forecasts among survey participants.
## Company And Sector Facts
- Micron reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, compared with $23.86 billion in the prior quarter and $9.30 billion in the year-earlier quarter.
- Micron reported fiscal Q3 2026 GAAP net income of $28.24 billion, or $24.67 per diluted share, and non-GAAP net income of $28.86 billion, or $25.11 per diluted share.
- Micron guided fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion, gross margin around 86%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $31.00 plus or minus $1.00.
- Micron said HBM4 built on 1-beta DRAM technology was in high-volume shipments for its lead customer's platform; HBM4E development was underway with volume production expected in calendar 2027.
## Scheduled Dates
- The June 2026 Employment Situation is scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- The full May manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders report is scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
- Friday, July 3, 2026 is the observed Independence Day market holiday on the NYSE calendar.
- U.S. international trade in goods and services for May 2026 is scheduled for July 7, 2026.
- June FOMC minutes are scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
- June 2026 CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- June 2026 PPI is scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- June 2026 import and export prices are scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- State employment and unemployment for June 2026 and usual weekly earnings for Q2 2026 are scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
- The advance June durable-goods report is scheduled for July 27, 2026.
- The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026.
- June 2026 personal income and outlays and the Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate are scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
## Measurement Notes
- GDP and PCE releases are estimates and are subject to scheduled revisions.
- Durable-goods data are advance estimates; the full May report is scheduled for July 2, 2026.
- Weekly claims data are advance readings and prior weeks may be revised.
- Flash PMI readings are preliminary and based on most, but not all, monthly survey responses.
- Federal Reserve H.15 daily Treasury observations in the June 25 release carried latest available table observations through June 24.
## Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-25
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-06-25 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.92% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-25 | 0.03% | 0.28% | 1.75% | 3.85% | 2.20% | 0.23% | -0.01% | 76.19% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-25 | -1.67% | -1.92% | 6.93% | 22.28% | 0.00% | 16.55% | -4.49% | 52.38% | -3.08% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-25 | -1.62% | -1.48% | 7.43% | 23.02% | 0.44% | 16.80% | -4.36% | 52.38% | -2.77% | 1.02 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -3.17% | -1.80% | 15.09% | 33.01% | 0.13% | 31.09% | -7.03% | 47.62% | -3.89% | 1.35 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-25 | -4.13% | -5.94% | -1.51% | 14.13% | -4.01% | 21.08% | -8.21% | 47.62% | -8.21% | 1.23 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-25 | 0.92% | 2.88% | 15.79% | 29.73% | 4.81% | 14.70% | -2.40% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.76 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-25 | 0.90% | 2.68% | 14.12% | 26.90% | 4.60% | 15.84% | -2.40% | 61.90% | 0.00% | 1.02 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-25 | 1.12% | 3.13% | 18.77% | 42.48% | 5.06% | 21.82% | -3.55% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 1.30 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-25 | 1.49% | 2.89% | 19.65% | 44.29% | 4.82% | 17.64% | -2.75% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 1.07 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-25 | 1.11% | -1.39% | 17.45% | 26.44% | 0.53% | 10.79% | -2.93% | 42.86% | -1.87% | 0.33 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-25 | 2.67% | 1.57% | 5.33% | 6.66% | 3.49% | 14.77% | -3.48% | 57.14% | -2.57% | 0.09 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-25 | 0.23% | 8.16% | 33.07% | 45.28% | 10.08% | 42.03% | -7.46% | 61.90% | -1.71% | 1.45 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | -3.47% | -0.19% | 26.46% | 48.81% | 1.73% | 42.03% | -10.89% | 52.38% | -6.77% | 1.64 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | -3.28% | -8.39% | -10.07% | 1.62% | -6.46% | 16.11% | -9.27% | 42.86% | -11.56% | 0.71 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | -3.06% | -4.91% | -7.17% | 7.23% | -2.99% | 23.21% | -7.02% | 47.62% | -8.61% | 1.19 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 1.47% | 1.07% | 8.81% | 7.53% | 2.99% | 17.43% | -3.57% | 42.86% | -5.57% | -0.01 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 4.63% | 5.25% | 0.74% | 18.25% | 7.17% | 18.27% | -3.34% | 57.14% | -2.03% | 0.40 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 0.12% | 3.44% | -3.27% | 5.57% | 5.37% | 14.59% | -1.89% | 52.38% | -4.41% | 0.68 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 2.02% | 5.89% | 17.51% | 29.69% | 7.81% | 22.40% | -3.69% | 52.38% | 0.00% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 1.31% | -5.83% | 23.57% | 31.92% | -3.91% | 23.61% | -8.48% | 47.62% | -12.92% | -0.14 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 0.43% | 2.05% | 14.01% | 21.58% | 3.97% | 21.32% | -3.93% | 57.14% | -2.53% | 0.81 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 3.09% | 1.79% | 8.53% | 17.07% | 3.71% | 18.22% | -4.92% | 66.67% | -2.66% | 0.21 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 2.54% | 0.60% | 11.96% | 11.85% | 2.52% | 18.51% | -3.31% | 52.38% | -0.85% | 0.35 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.46% | 0.88% | -0.02% | 3.34% | 2.80% | 5.16% | -0.86% | 61.90% | -2.01% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.69% | 3.05% | 1.11% | 4.38% | 4.97% | 8.60% | -1.20% | 61.90% | -2.37% | 0.14 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.10% | -0.04% | 1.15% | 3.72% | 1.88% | 4.26% | -0.98% | 57.14% | -0.56% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-25 | 0.39% | 1.04% | 0.85% | 5.30% | 2.96% | 4.98% | -0.81% | 52.38% | -0.48% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-25 | -0.16% | 0.14% | 1.56% | 5.68% | 2.06% | 3.75% | -0.59% | 47.62% | -0.20% | 0.24 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.35% | 0.87% | 0.88% | 4.48% | 2.80% | 4.04% | -0.57% | 61.90% | -0.82% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -1.59% | -0.35% | 14.32% | 31.04% | 1.57% | 23.94% | -4.85% | 61.90% | -1.70% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -3.24% | -2.26% | 9.67% | 22.83% | -0.34% | 24.31% | -5.67% | 47.62% | -3.98% | 1.07 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -0.50% | -0.51% | 6.83% | 19.18% | 1.41% | 17.12% | -3.12% | 47.62% | -1.15% | 0.94 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -2.98% | 1.06% | 15.91% | 34.51% | 2.98% | 27.40% | -5.14% | 66.67% | -3.69% | 1.17 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -3.77% | -8.89% | -15.67% | -6.82% | -6.97% | 20.95% | -10.62% | 38.10% | -22.76% | 0.91 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -0.30% | 1.81% | -8.48% | -10.13% | 3.73% | 16.14% | -3.04% | 52.38% | -11.51% | 0.63 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -4.56% | -10.73% | -10.23% | 20.46% | -8.81% | 29.69% | -12.28% | 47.62% | -25.46% | 0.66 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -2.36% | -10.05% | 20.04% | 28.18% | -8.13% | 18.78% | -12.58% | 33.33% | -14.81% | -0.17 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -3.49% | 5.77% | 74.89% | 132.14% | 7.69% | 64.40% | -10.69% | 57.14% | -4.79% | 2.21 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -4.86% | -9.86% | -21.67% | -21.34% | -7.94% | 44.20% | -21.29% | 23.81% | -28.03% | 1.21 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -3.92% | -1.56% | 24.85% | 49.28% | 0.36% | 50.06% | -12.52% | 57.14% | -8.50% | 1.83 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -7.01% | -11.33% | 3.92% | 44.97% | -9.41% | 42.73% | -13.89% | 38.10% | -13.89% | 2.14 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -0.96% | -0.89% | 15.14% | 13.15% | 1.04% | 41.20% | -11.74% | 38.10% | -11.23% | 1.08 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-25 | -4.47% | -16.08% | 13.78% | 72.90% | -14.16% | 53.06% | -21.72% | 42.86% | -21.72% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -7.01% | -11.28% | 0.94% | 66.54% | -9.36% | 46.77% | -19.22% | 42.86% | -18.08% | 1.73 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-25 | 1.24% | 2.37% | 10.15% | 20.33% | 4.29% | 12.47% | -2.04% | 61.90% | -0.15% | 0.75 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-25 | 7.83% | 13.79% | 20.14% | 82.86% | 15.71% | 34.33% | -6.53% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 1.07 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-25 | 4.86% | 6.97% | 13.34% | 31.71% | 8.90% | 22.05% | -3.44% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 0.86 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-25 | -0.67% | 3.51% | 7.95% | 31.06% | 5.43% | 29.00% | -4.54% | 52.38% | -5.14% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -0.43% | -1.38% | 6.02% | 28.88% | 0.54% | 15.22% | -3.20% | 52.38% | -2.64% | 0.81 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | 0.92% | -1.85% | 5.58% | 20.79% | 0.07% | 14.15% | -3.40% | 38.10% | -4.39% | 0.74 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -2.21% | -2.16% | 6.49% | 10.69% | -0.24% | 19.54% | -4.78% | 42.86% | -6.39% | 0.95 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -6.48% | 2.17% | 116.70% | 189.71% | 4.09% | 95.11% | -19.16% | 38.10% | -6.48% | 2.59 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -4.62% | 2.71% | 67.78% | 91.49% | 4.63% | 47.37% | -8.51% | 61.90% | -5.94% | 1.66 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | 1.33% | -5.44% | 9.73% | 29.65% | -3.52% | 20.77% | -7.67% | 33.33% | -17.31% | 1.03 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -2.33% | -2.82% | 8.01% | 30.91% | -0.90% | 24.47% | -6.47% | 38.10% | -5.66% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -5.35% | -7.60% | -7.74% | 28.67% | -5.67% | 37.23% | -9.51% | 52.38% | -20.95% | 1.60 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.47% | 0.98% | 1.23% | 5.88% | 2.90% | 4.54% | -0.80% | 66.67% | -0.67% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.23% | 1.14% | 1.92% | 6.60% | 3.06% | 2.33% | -0.35% | 57.14% | -0.17% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-25 | -0.18% | 1.39% | 2.21% | 10.56% | 3.31% | 6.06% | -1.02% | 52.38% | -0.18% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.29% | 0.78% | 1.29% | 2.53% | 2.70% | 3.24% | -0.65% | 57.14% | -0.54% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -12.01% | -24.90% | -19.72% | 58.62% | -22.98% | 52.76% | -25.73% | 38.10% | -50.42% | 1.69 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -4.84% | -5.25% | 8.13% | 19.83% | -3.33% | 33.89% | -10.57% | 52.38% | -8.92% | 1.26 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-25 | 1.09% | -2.00% | 4.95% | 6.92% | -0.08% | 10.46% | -4.86% | 33.33% | -6.30% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -4.84% | -20.21% | 55.71% | 49.11% | -18.29% | 44.25% | -24.54% | 33.33% | -28.54% | -1.03 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-25 | 0.64% | 2.63% | 5.68% | 8.78% | 4.55% | 4.80% | -0.43% | 52.38% | -0.18% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-25 | -0.78% | -2.19% | -3.08% | -1.80% | -0.26% | 5.34% | -2.66% | 47.62% | -5.25% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-25 | -0.28% | -1.63% | -3.88% | -10.60% | 0.29% | 2.75% | -1.67% | 19.05% | -11.60% | 0.08 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-25 | -5.90% | -22.03% | -32.23% | -45.30% | -20.11% | 46.38% | -22.03% | 23.81% | -52.98% | 1.83 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-25 | -8.85% | -24.84% | -47.05% | -36.20% | -22.92% | 68.95% | -24.84% | 23.81% | -67.91% | 3.00 | pass |
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical price-context table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and price-context table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to allocate to an option. When recent performance matters to a holding, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- If a holding rationale cites momentum, recent returns, or trailing performance, do not present price history alone as independent evidence. Mention any independent support present in the briefing, or state that support is limited, and include the relevant reversal or positioning risk in key_risks.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-06-25-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-06-25-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-06-25'
decision_deadline: '2026-06-26T02:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, June 25, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot, supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Thursday, July 2, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-06-25'
exit_date: '2026-07-02'
created_at: '2026-06-25T23:04:42.385928+00:00'
notes: Research assembled after the June 25, 2026 U.S. market close. Fable 5 is excluded from this run at operator instruction. The prohibited S&P 500 allocation instruction is absent from the prompt.# CapitalBench Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. Market Close
- On June 25, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,357.49, down 0.73 points, or less than 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 51,920.62, up 71.72 points, or 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 25,358.60, down 118.03 points, or 0.5%. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,007.86, up 21.23 points, or 0.7%.
- Through the June 25 close, week-to-date index moves were: S&P 500 down 1.9%, Dow up 0.7%, Nasdaq down 4.4%, Russell 2000 up 0.9%.
- Through the June 25 close, year-to-date index moves were: S&P 500 up 7.5%, Dow up 8.0%, Nasdaq up 9.1%, Russell 2000 up 21.2%.
## U.S. Macro Data
- May 2026 personal income increased $181.6 billion, or 0.7% month over month. Disposable personal income increased $164.9 billion, or 0.7%. Personal consumption expenditures increased $156.1 billion, or 0.7%.
- May 2026 real disposable personal income increased 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- May 2026 PCE prices were up 4.1% from a year earlier. PCE prices excluding food and energy were up 3.4% from a year earlier.
- Q1 2026 real GDP increased at a 2.1% annual rate in the third estimate, compared with a 0.5% increase in Q4 2025. The third estimate revised real GDP up 0.5 percentage point from the prior estimate.
- Q1 2026 real GDI increased 1.2%. The average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.7%.
- Q1 2026 profits from current production increased $74.4 billion.
- Initial unemployment claims were 215,000 for the week ending June 20, 2026, down 12,000 from the revised prior-week level of 227,000. The four-week moving average was 224,250, up 750 from the prior revised average.
- May 2026 manufactured durable-goods new orders decreased $15.6 billion, or 4.5%, to $332.1 billion after an 8.5% April increase. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.3%; excluding defense, new orders decreased 4.6%.
- May 2026 durable-goods shipments increased $3.2 billion, or 1.0%, to $327.9 billion. Unfilled orders increased $9.2 billion, or 0.6%, to $1,579.5 billion. Inventories increased $0.9 billion, or 0.2%, to $600.0 billion.
- May 2026 CPI rose 0.5% month over month and 4.2% year over year. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month over month and 2.9% year over year.
- May 2026 PPI for final demand rose 1.1% month over month and 6.5% year over year. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.8% month over month and 5.1% year over year.
- May 2026 nonfarm payroll employment rose by 172,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.3%.
## Rates And Policy Calendar
- The Federal Reserve's June 25 H.15 release showed latest available Treasury constant maturity observations for June 24, 2026: 2-year 4.11%, 5-year 4.17%, 10-year 4.41%, 20-year 4.87%, and 30-year 4.86%. The effective federal funds rate was 3.63% and the bank prime loan rate was 6.75%.
- On June 17, 2026, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is July 28-29, 2026. Minutes from the June 16-17 meeting are scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
## Energy, Commodities, And Crypto
- For the week ending June 19, 2026, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 million barrels, about 7% below the five-year average.
- Gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels and were 5% below the five-year average. Distillate inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels and were 10% below the five-year average.
- U.S. crude refinery inputs averaged 17.1 million barrels per day for the week ending June 19, down 81,000 barrels per day from the prior week. Refineries operated at 96.1% capacity utilization.
- On June 25, front-month Comex gold futures rose 1.01% to $4,030.50 per ounce and silver rose 0.51% to $58.348 per ounce.
- Bitcoin was quoted at $59,860 at 5:53 PM EDT on June 25, 2026, up 1.11% from the previous close. The displayed 52-week range was $58,065 to $126,273.
## Business Activity And Global Data
- The June 2026 flash U.S. Composite Output PMI was 52.2, up from 51.5 in May. The flash U.S. Manufacturing PMI was 55.7, up from 55.1 and a 49-month high. The flash U.S. Services Business Activity Index was 51.3, up from 50.7 and a four-month high. The release also reported lower employment and elevated price inflation.
- The Eurozone flash composite PMI rose from 48.5 in May to 49.5 in June and remained below 50.0.
- Japan's flash composite output PMI rose from 51.1 in May to 52.5 in June.
- HSBC/S&P Global flash India PMI data indicated robust but softer growth in June, slower demand growth, a softer expansion in employment, receding inflation pressures, and downgraded growth forecasts among survey participants.
## Company And Sector Facts
- Micron reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion, compared with $23.86 billion in the prior quarter and $9.30 billion in the year-earlier quarter.
- Micron reported fiscal Q3 2026 GAAP net income of $28.24 billion, or $24.67 per diluted share, and non-GAAP net income of $28.86 billion, or $25.11 per diluted share.
- Micron guided fiscal Q4 2026 revenue to $50.0 billion plus or minus $1.0 billion, gross margin around 86%, and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $31.00 plus or minus $1.00.
- Micron said HBM4 built on 1-beta DRAM technology was in high-volume shipments for its lead customer's platform; HBM4E development was underway with volume production expected in calendar 2027.
## Scheduled Dates
- The June 2026 Employment Situation is scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- The full May manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders report is scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
- Friday, July 3, 2026 is the observed Independence Day market holiday on the NYSE calendar.
- U.S. international trade in goods and services for May 2026 is scheduled for July 7, 2026.
- June FOMC minutes are scheduled for July 8, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET.
- June 2026 CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- June 2026 PPI is scheduled for July 15, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- June 2026 import and export prices are scheduled for July 17, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
- State employment and unemployment for June 2026 and usual weekly earnings for Q2 2026 are scheduled for July 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET.
- The advance June durable-goods report is scheduled for July 27, 2026.
- The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for July 28-29, 2026.
- June 2026 personal income and outlays and the Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate are scheduled for July 30, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET.
## Measurement Notes
- GDP and PCE releases are estimates and are subject to scheduled revisions.
- Durable-goods data are advance estimates; the full May report is scheduled for July 2, 2026.
- Weekly claims data are advance readings and prior weeks may be revised.
- Flash PMI readings are preliminary and based on most, but not all, monthly survey responses.
- Federal Reserve H.15 daily Treasury observations in the June 25 release carried latest available table observations through June 24.# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-25
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-06-25 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.92% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-25 | 0.03% | 0.28% | 1.75% | 3.85% | 2.20% | 0.23% | -0.01% | 76.19% | 0.00% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-25 | -1.67% | -1.92% | 6.93% | 22.28% | 0.00% | 16.55% | -4.49% | 52.38% | -3.08% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-25 | -1.62% | -1.48% | 7.43% | 23.02% | 0.44% | 16.80% | -4.36% | 52.38% | -2.77% | 1.02 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -3.17% | -1.80% | 15.09% | 33.01% | 0.13% | 31.09% | -7.03% | 47.62% | -3.89% | 1.35 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-25 | -4.13% | -5.94% | -1.51% | 14.13% | -4.01% | 21.08% | -8.21% | 47.62% | -8.21% | 1.23 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-25 | 0.92% | 2.88% | 15.79% | 29.73% | 4.81% | 14.70% | -2.40% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 0.76 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-25 | 0.90% | 2.68% | 14.12% | 26.90% | 4.60% | 15.84% | -2.40% | 61.90% | 0.00% | 1.02 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-25 | 1.12% | 3.13% | 18.77% | 42.48% | 5.06% | 21.82% | -3.55% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 1.30 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-25 | 1.49% | 2.89% | 19.65% | 44.29% | 4.82% | 17.64% | -2.75% | 57.14% | 0.00% | 1.07 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-25 | 1.11% | -1.39% | 17.45% | 26.44% | 0.53% | 10.79% | -2.93% | 42.86% | -1.87% | 0.33 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-25 | 2.67% | 1.57% | 5.33% | 6.66% | 3.49% | 14.77% | -3.48% | 57.14% | -2.57% | 0.09 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-25 | 0.23% | 8.16% | 33.07% | 45.28% | 10.08% | 42.03% | -7.46% | 61.90% | -1.71% | 1.45 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | -3.47% | -0.19% | 26.46% | 48.81% | 1.73% | 42.03% | -10.89% | 52.38% | -6.77% | 1.64 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | -3.28% | -8.39% | -10.07% | 1.62% | -6.46% | 16.11% | -9.27% | 42.86% | -11.56% | 0.71 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | -3.06% | -4.91% | -7.17% | 7.23% | -2.99% | 23.21% | -7.02% | 47.62% | -8.61% | 1.19 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 1.47% | 1.07% | 8.81% | 7.53% | 2.99% | 17.43% | -3.57% | 42.86% | -5.57% | -0.01 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 4.63% | 5.25% | 0.74% | 18.25% | 7.17% | 18.27% | -3.34% | 57.14% | -2.03% | 0.40 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 0.12% | 3.44% | -3.27% | 5.57% | 5.37% | 14.59% | -1.89% | 52.38% | -4.41% | 0.68 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 2.02% | 5.89% | 17.51% | 29.69% | 7.81% | 22.40% | -3.69% | 52.38% | 0.00% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 1.31% | -5.83% | 23.57% | 31.92% | -3.91% | 23.61% | -8.48% | 47.62% | -12.92% | -0.14 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 0.43% | 2.05% | 14.01% | 21.58% | 3.97% | 21.32% | -3.93% | 57.14% | -2.53% | 0.81 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 3.09% | 1.79% | 8.53% | 17.07% | 3.71% | 18.22% | -4.92% | 66.67% | -2.66% | 0.21 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-25 | 2.54% | 0.60% | 11.96% | 11.85% | 2.52% | 18.51% | -3.31% | 52.38% | -0.85% | 0.35 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.46% | 0.88% | -0.02% | 3.34% | 2.80% | 5.16% | -0.86% | 61.90% | -2.01% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.69% | 3.05% | 1.11% | 4.38% | 4.97% | 8.60% | -1.20% | 61.90% | -2.37% | 0.14 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.10% | -0.04% | 1.15% | 3.72% | 1.88% | 4.26% | -0.98% | 57.14% | -0.56% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-25 | 0.39% | 1.04% | 0.85% | 5.30% | 2.96% | 4.98% | -0.81% | 52.38% | -0.48% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-25 | -0.16% | 0.14% | 1.56% | 5.68% | 2.06% | 3.75% | -0.59% | 47.62% | -0.20% | 0.24 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.35% | 0.87% | 0.88% | 4.48% | 2.80% | 4.04% | -0.57% | 61.90% | -0.82% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -1.59% | -0.35% | 14.32% | 31.04% | 1.57% | 23.94% | -4.85% | 61.90% | -1.70% | 1.08 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -3.24% | -2.26% | 9.67% | 22.83% | -0.34% | 24.31% | -5.67% | 47.62% | -3.98% | 1.07 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -0.50% | -0.51% | 6.83% | 19.18% | 1.41% | 17.12% | -3.12% | 47.62% | -1.15% | 0.94 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -2.98% | 1.06% | 15.91% | 34.51% | 2.98% | 27.40% | -5.14% | 66.67% | -3.69% | 1.17 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -3.77% | -8.89% | -15.67% | -6.82% | -6.97% | 20.95% | -10.62% | 38.10% | -22.76% | 0.91 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-25 | -0.30% | 1.81% | -8.48% | -10.13% | 3.73% | 16.14% | -3.04% | 52.38% | -11.51% | 0.63 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -4.56% | -10.73% | -10.23% | 20.46% | -8.81% | 29.69% | -12.28% | 47.62% | -25.46% | 0.66 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -2.36% | -10.05% | 20.04% | 28.18% | -8.13% | 18.78% | -12.58% | 33.33% | -14.81% | -0.17 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -3.49% | 5.77% | 74.89% | 132.14% | 7.69% | 64.40% | -10.69% | 57.14% | -4.79% | 2.21 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -4.86% | -9.86% | -21.67% | -21.34% | -7.94% | 44.20% | -21.29% | 23.81% | -28.03% | 1.21 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -3.92% | -1.56% | 24.85% | 49.28% | 0.36% | 50.06% | -12.52% | 57.14% | -8.50% | 1.83 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -7.01% | -11.33% | 3.92% | 44.97% | -9.41% | 42.73% | -13.89% | 38.10% | -13.89% | 2.14 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-25 | -0.96% | -0.89% | 15.14% | 13.15% | 1.04% | 41.20% | -11.74% | 38.10% | -11.23% | 1.08 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-25 | -4.47% | -16.08% | 13.78% | 72.90% | -14.16% | 53.06% | -21.72% | 42.86% | -21.72% | 1.76 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -7.01% | -11.28% | 0.94% | 66.54% | -9.36% | 46.77% | -19.22% | 42.86% | -18.08% | 1.73 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-25 | 1.24% | 2.37% | 10.15% | 20.33% | 4.29% | 12.47% | -2.04% | 61.90% | -0.15% | 0.75 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-25 | 7.83% | 13.79% | 20.14% | 82.86% | 15.71% | 34.33% | -6.53% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 1.07 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-25 | 4.86% | 6.97% | 13.34% | 31.71% | 8.90% | 22.05% | -3.44% | 71.43% | 0.00% | 0.86 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-25 | -0.67% | 3.51% | 7.95% | 31.06% | 5.43% | 29.00% | -4.54% | 52.38% | -5.14% | 1.02 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -0.43% | -1.38% | 6.02% | 28.88% | 0.54% | 15.22% | -3.20% | 52.38% | -2.64% | 0.81 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | 0.92% | -1.85% | 5.58% | 20.79% | 0.07% | 14.15% | -3.40% | 38.10% | -4.39% | 0.74 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -2.21% | -2.16% | 6.49% | 10.69% | -0.24% | 19.54% | -4.78% | 42.86% | -6.39% | 0.95 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -6.48% | 2.17% | 116.70% | 189.71% | 4.09% | 95.11% | -19.16% | 38.10% | -6.48% | 2.59 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -4.62% | 2.71% | 67.78% | 91.49% | 4.63% | 47.37% | -8.51% | 61.90% | -5.94% | 1.66 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | 1.33% | -5.44% | 9.73% | 29.65% | -3.52% | 20.77% | -7.67% | 33.33% | -17.31% | 1.03 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -2.33% | -2.82% | 8.01% | 30.91% | -0.90% | 24.47% | -6.47% | 38.10% | -5.66% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-25 | -5.35% | -7.60% | -7.74% | 28.67% | -5.67% | 37.23% | -9.51% | 52.38% | -20.95% | 1.60 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.47% | 0.98% | 1.23% | 5.88% | 2.90% | 4.54% | -0.80% | 66.67% | -0.67% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.23% | 1.14% | 1.92% | 6.60% | 3.06% | 2.33% | -0.35% | 57.14% | -0.17% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-25 | -0.18% | 1.39% | 2.21% | 10.56% | 3.31% | 6.06% | -1.02% | 52.38% | -0.18% | 0.30 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-25 | 0.29% | 0.78% | 1.29% | 2.53% | 2.70% | 3.24% | -0.65% | 57.14% | -0.54% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -12.01% | -24.90% | -19.72% | 58.62% | -22.98% | 52.76% | -25.73% | 38.10% | -50.42% | 1.69 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -4.84% | -5.25% | 8.13% | 19.83% | -3.33% | 33.89% | -10.57% | 52.38% | -8.92% | 1.26 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-25 | 1.09% | -2.00% | 4.95% | 6.92% | -0.08% | 10.46% | -4.86% | 33.33% | -6.30% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-25 | -4.84% | -20.21% | 55.71% | 49.11% | -18.29% | 44.25% | -24.54% | 33.33% | -28.54% | -1.03 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-25 | 0.64% | 2.63% | 5.68% | 8.78% | 4.55% | 4.80% | -0.43% | 52.38% | -0.18% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-25 | -0.78% | -2.19% | -3.08% | -1.80% | -0.26% | 5.34% | -2.66% | 47.62% | -5.25% | 0.13 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-25 | -0.28% | -1.63% | -3.88% | -10.60% | 0.29% | 2.75% | -1.67% | 19.05% | -11.60% | 0.08 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-25 | -5.90% | -22.03% | -32.23% | -45.30% | -20.11% | 46.38% | -22.03% | 23.81% | -52.98% | 1.83 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-25 | -8.85% | -24.84% | -47.05% | -36.20% | -22.92% | 68.95% | -24.84% | 23.81% | -67.91% | 3.00 | pass |Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "833e3b256d8a101b15bbfec9218a8e488aa2043c1c3e26c4fecdfcd334c16dcb",
"manifest.yaml": "380294a8fdf750b77f918f1bdac6d38ee7f47cdff67fd814d6907ca1e1fb44f2",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "588a18556cdd760fe00850402f904f0091c916028909ec54a8a91f87d3923222",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "78ca1f08d33196266f5984801e46bd4fdbec70164784010f15bb7816ab57ac5d",
"market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "6f45e81899cde555e6a0c994a0a81cc8ed5fd622e04b29c8b822ca16590655f8",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "66320ebc013af445c33450b3005ec684487d06b5bca45c52a3ff9e8e24373e4c"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-25-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-25-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-25-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-25-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-25-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Rotation away from weakening mega-cap tech (Nasdaq -4.4% WTD) toward defensives and broad-market participation; healthcare/biotech showing strongest momentum with macro support from strong manufacturing PMI favoring industrials.
Tilt to healthcare/biotech leadership and cyclical industrials backed by 49-month-high manufacturing PMI, with equal-weight S&P for breadth and T-bills as buffer into July 2 payrolls.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Payrolls surprise on July 2 could whipsaw rate-sensitive defensives",
"Biotech/healthcare momentum reversal after sharp 7d/30d gains",
"Mega-cap tech rebound would cause cap-weighted SPY benchmark to outperform our tilts",
"Sticky CPI/PCE inflation prints could pressure all equity sectors"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive leadership with strong recent breadth, low beta, and biotech tailwind; tech weakness rotation beneficiary."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strongest recent momentum supported by sector rotation into healthcare; near 52w high with broad participation."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Flash manufacturing PMI at 49-month high (55.7) supports cyclical industrials; at 52w highs with solid breadth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broad participation away from mega-cap tech weakness; balanced exposure ahead of payrolls."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"rationale": "Dry powder buffer ahead of July 2 payrolls and holiday-shortened week."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Rotation away from weakening mega-cap tech (Nasdaq -4.4% WTD) toward defensives and broad-market participation; healthcare/biotech showing strongest momentum with macro support from strong manufacturing PMI favoring industrials.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt to healthcare/biotech leadership and cyclical industrials backed by 49-month-high manufacturing PMI, with equal-weight S&P for breadth and T-bills as buffer into July 2 payrolls.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-06-25-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23310,
"latency_seconds": 13.34374514297815,
"output_tokens": 740,
"total_tokens": 24050
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward defensive and cyclical-value leaders showing relative strength while tech/growth corrects; underweight high-beta Nasdaq exposure ahead of July 2 jobs report which adds event risk into the exit close.
Rotate into healthcare, industrials, biotech, banks, and dividends that are outperforming during the Nasdaq drawdown, balancing defensive low-beta names with PMI-supported cyclicals.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July 2 jobs report could surprise and trigger a sharp rotation reversing recent sector leadership before the exit close",
"Biotech and regional banks carry high volatility; recent strength may mean-revert given stretched up-day shares",
"A relief rally in mega-cap tech/Nasdaq would cause this defensive/cyclical tilt to underperform the SPX benchmark",
"Sticky inflation (PCE 4.1%, PPI 6.5%) could pressure rate-sensitive financials and banks if yields spike"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strongest recent relative strength (+7.17% vs SPX 30d), low beta 0.40, supported by rotation into defensives amid Nasdaq weakness."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Leading momentum with +7.83% 7d and +15.71% vs SPX 30d on broad strength; high up-day share supports continuation, though volatile."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Manufacturing PMI 49-month high (55.7) supports cyclicals; +7.81% vs SPX 30d with manageable volatility and at 52w high."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Strong relative strength (+8.90% vs SPX 30d) and steepening curve dynamics favor banks; high up-day share signals breadth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive quality tilt with positive 7d return and low beta 0.33, provides ballast against tech-led drawdown into jobs report."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive and cyclical-value leaders showing relative strength while tech/growth corrects; underweight high-beta Nasdaq exposure ahead of July 2 jobs report which adds event risk into the exit close.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Rotate into healthcare, industrials, biotech, banks, and dividends that are outperforming during the Nasdaq drawdown, balancing defensive low-beta names with PMI-supported cyclicals.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-06-25-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 23305,
"latency_seconds": 12.2101154110278,
"output_tokens": 840,
"total_tokens": 24145
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
This portfolio balances a high-conviction tactical allocation to semiconductors driven by a specific company catalyst with a defensive allocation to healthcare to mitigate broader market volatility.
Allocating to semiconductors based on Micron's strong earnings and guidance, balanced with defensive healthcare exposure.
{
"confidence": 0.65,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Semiconductor stocks may sell off if the Micron news is already priced in or if broader tech sentiment weakens.",
"Healthcare stocks could underperform if there is a sudden rotation back into high-beta growth or cyclical sectors.",
"Upcoming macro data releases, such as the July 2 Employment Situation report, could cause broad market volatility that overrides sector-specific catalysts."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Micron's strong earnings beat and positive guidance, particularly regarding high-volume HBM4 shipments, provides a strong near-term catalyst for the semiconductor sector."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare offers defensive characteristics amid mixed macro data (rising unemployment, lower durable goods orders) and has shown recent relative strength."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio balances a high-conviction tactical allocation to semiconductors driven by a specific company catalyst with a defensive allocation to healthcare to mitigate broader market volatility.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Allocating to semiconductors based on Micron's strong earnings and guidance, balanced with defensive healthcare exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-06-25-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16842,
"latency_seconds": 9.650118096033111,
"output_tokens": 371,
"reasoning_tokens": 742,
"total_tokens": 17955
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio emphasizes high-beta areas with identifiable near-term support: semiconductor fundamentals from Micron's blowout report and a continuing rotation toward small-cap/value and selected cyclicals. It intentionally takes more risk than the S&P 500 because the scoring objective rewards one-week upside rather than risk-adjusted return.
A concentrated allocation to semiconductors is paired with regional banks, biotech, and small value to capture likely post-earnings AI-chip strength and recent broadening in U.S. market leadership. The main bet is that the latest growth data and sector catalysts outweigh inflation and jobs-report risks before the July 2 close.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Micron's results may already be priced in or trigger a sell-the-news reaction across semiconductors after extreme trailing gains and high volatility.",
"The July 2 employment report could reprice Fed expectations, lift yields, and pressure small caps, banks, biotech, and high-beta technology.",
"Recent rotation into small value, regional banks, and biotech could reverse quickly if investors return to mega-cap defensives or de-risk ahead of the holiday.",
"Hot CPI/PPI/PCE inflation readings may keep rate-cut expectations constrained and weigh on duration-sensitive or financing-sensitive equity groups.",
"A broad risk-off move or renewed weakness in Nasdaq leadership could cause the portfolio's high-beta exposures to underperform SPY."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Micron's exceptionally strong reported revenue, earnings, Q4 guidance, and HBM shipment commentary provide a near-term fundamental catalyst for semiconductor sentiment despite high volatility and recent pullback risk."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "Recent leadership in smaller domestic cyclicals is supported by resilient claims, stronger GDP revision, and steady policy rates, with regional banks positioned to benefit if risk appetite and yield-curve expectations remain constructive."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Biotech has shown strong recent relative strength alongside broader healthcare strength, and lower direct sensitivity to the mega-cap tech selloff may help over the one-week window; support beyond price action is limited."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Small-cap value has been outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 while domestic growth and labor data remain resilient, offering exposure to the current rotation away from large-cap growth concentration."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes high-beta areas with identifiable near-term support: semiconductor fundamentals from Micron's blowout report and a continuing rotation toward small-cap/value and selected cyclicals. It intentionally takes more risk than the S&P 500 because the scoring objective rewards one-week upside rather than risk-adjusted return.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "A concentrated allocation to semiconductors is paired with regional banks, biotech, and small value to capture likely post-earnings AI-chip strength and recent broadening in U.S. market leadership. The main bet is that the latest growth data and sector catalysts outweigh inflation and jobs-report risks before the July 2 close.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-06-25-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15117,
"latency_seconds": 15.827118975052144,
"output_tokens": 824,
"reasoning_tokens": 270,
"total_tokens": 15941
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Allocates to sectors with recent strength and macro tailwinds from PMI, GDP, and employment data to target outperformance versus SP500 over the one-week window ending on jobs-report day.
Biotech and healthcare lead due to briefing-highlighted positive data; small-value and equal-weight provide balance against concentration and reversal risks.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July 2 employment report volatility could trigger sharp sector rotations",
"Micron-related AI enthusiasm may fail to lift broader semis or biotech holdings",
"Inflation readings embedded in PCE and CPI data could pressure rate-sensitive small caps"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Strong 7d outperformance amid positive macro data including upward GDP revision and rising PMI readings."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "4.63% 7d gain with supportive employment and consumption trends in briefing."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance in small-value segment alongside broad US growth signals."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Diversified exposure to reduce concentration risk while capturing domestic equity momentum."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Allocates to sectors with recent strength and macro tailwinds from PMI, GDP, and employment data to target outperformance versus SP500 over the one-week window ending on jobs-report day.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Biotech and healthcare lead due to briefing-highlighted positive data; small-value and equal-weight provide balance against concentration and reversal risks.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-06-25-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15245,
"latency_seconds": 7.431861157005187,
"output_tokens": 378,
"reasoning_tokens": 711,
"total_tokens": 16334
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Industrials Sector (XLI)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20%Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Industrials Sector (XLI)20%Regional Banks (KRE)15%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Semiconductors (SMH)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)50%Regional Banks (KRE)20%Biotechnology (XBI)15%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)15% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Biotechnology (XBI)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-06-25 | 237.38 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-06-25 | 94.92 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-06-25 | 26.92 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-06-25 | 27.93 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-06-25 | 123.84 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-06-25 | 151.59 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-06-25 | 33.52 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-06-25 | 34.18 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-06-25 | 64.18 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-06-25 | 16.11 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-06-25 | 57.62 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-06-25 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-06-25 | 50.78 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-06-25 | 105.58 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-06-25 | 113.35 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-06-25 | 83.94 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-06-25 | 36.98 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-06-25 | 109.31 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-06-25 | 83.66 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-06-25 | 71.16 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-06-25 | 96.56 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-06-25 | 58.80 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-06-25 | 54.09 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-06-25 | 211.75 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-06-25 | 11.74 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-06-25 | 104.94 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-06-25 | 87.83 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-06-25 | 53.45 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-06-25 | 75.71 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-06-25 | 155.63 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-06-25 | 79.88 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-06-25 | 49.43 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-06-25 | 184.12 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-06-25 | 94.79 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-06-25 | 48.49 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-06-25 | 109.50 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-06-25 | 93.39 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-06-25 | 56.69 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-06-25 | 87.35 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-06-25 | 51.84 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-06-25 | 108.74 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-06-25 | 75.53 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-06-25 | 107.58 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-06-25 | 716.38 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-06-25 | 44.59 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-06-25 | 74.77 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-06-25 | 734.30 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-06-25 | 636.88 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-06-25 | 91.60 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-06-25 | 52.36 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-06-25 | 84.76 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-06-25 | 57.87 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-06-25 | 63.17 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-06-25 | 205.00 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-06-25 | 104.91 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-06-25 | 184.57 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-06-25 | 363.98 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-06-25 | 109.50 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-06-25 | 45.88 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-06-25 | 99.25 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-06-25 | 31.96 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-06-25 | 28.48 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-06-25 | 118.10 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-06-25 | 244.41 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-06-25 | 74.90 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-06-25 | 76.46 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-06-25 | 339.30 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-06-25 | 298.91 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-06-25 | 220.11 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-06-25 | 45.85 | universe trailing returns adjclose |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 833e3b256d8a...34c16dcb |
| manifest.yaml | 380294a8fdf7...e1fb44f2 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | 588a18556cdd...d3923222 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | 78ca1f08d331...ab57ac5d |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | 6f45e81899cd...590655f8 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 66320ebc013a...24373e4c |