Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +34.38%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 73.6 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward growth and technology.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-12 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260805
34,735 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-05
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-06T03:31:12Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-06T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-05
- Exit date: 2026-08-12
- Entry rule: Use the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Wednesday, August 12, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-06T03:31:12Z. Decision date: August 5, 2026. Weekly scoring window: August 5-August 12. Monthly scoring window: August 5-September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close, rates, and Treasury financing
- On August 5 the S&P 500 closed at 7,723.55, down 0.2%; the Dow closed at a record 54,349.12, up 0.5%; and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,363.44, down 0.8%.
- Brent crude was reported at $79.45 a barrel, down 0.1% that day. It had reached $102 during the conflict.
- Treasury's August 5 par yields were 4.03% at one year, 4.18% at two years, 4.33% at five years, 4.63% at ten years, and 5.17% at thirty years. Treasury describes these as interpolated indicative yields observed near 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Treasury announced $125 billion of August refunding securities: $58 billion at three years, $42 billion at ten years, and $25 billion at thirty years. Auctions are scheduled for August 11, 12, and 13, with August 17 settlement.
- The refunding is expected to retire about $96.3 billion of privately held securities and raise about $28.7 billion of new cash. Treasury said it expects nominal coupon and floating-rate note auction sizes to remain unchanged for at least the next several quarters.
## U.S. policy, growth, inflation, and labor
- On July 29 the FOMC maintained the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%.
- The advance estimate of annualized Q2 real GDP growth was 1.5%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%; headline and core PCE prices rose at 5.1% and 3.4% annual rates. A second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- In June, personal income and disposable income each rose 0.2%, nominal spending rose 0.3%, real spending rose 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. Headline PCE prices fell 0.1% on the month and rose 3.7% over the year; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over the year.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices declined 1.4% and services prices rose 0.2%. June data are preliminary.
- BLS reported 57,000 additional payroll jobs in June and unemployment at 4.2%, describing both as little changed.
- June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million. Hires were 5.3 million, total separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million.
- ADP estimated that private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, down from 95,000 in June. Reported year-over-year pay growth was 4.4% for job stayers and 7.0% for job changers. ADP is separate from the BLS payroll report.
## Business activity, consumers, housing, and trade
- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, up from 53.3 and the highest since May 2022. New orders were 56.7 and production was 58.5.
- The July ISM Services PMI was 54.1, compared with 54.0 in June. Business activity was 59.1, new orders 57.2, employment 47.4, and prices 70.3.
- June industrial production increased 0.1% and was 1.1% above a year earlier. Manufacturing output was unchanged. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June data are preliminary.
- Advance June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% on the month and 6.7% on the year. The monthly change was not statistically different from zero at 90% confidence, and the values are not price-adjusted.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above revised May. Single-family starts were 895,000, down 0.2%. Permits were at a 1.367 million rate, down 3.0%. Sampling intervals were wide.
- July Consumer Confidence declined 1.4 points to 90.8. The Present Situation Index was 114.9 and the Expectations Index was 74.7. The preliminary online survey ended July 22.
- The June goods-and-services trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion. Exports were $314.7 billion and imports were $388.0 billion. The first-half deficit was 33.8% below the same 2025 period.
## Global, energy, geopolitical, and corporate facts
- The IMF's July forecast put global growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 and stated that global disinflation had stalled. These values are forecasts.
- On July 23 the ECB kept its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. It said the full inflationary effect of the energy shock had not yet played out.
- The IEA reported June global oil supply at 98.8 million barrels per day, 9.4 million below prewar levels. Gulf exports including bypass routes were 16.1 million barrels per day, compared with a 24 million prewar average. The outlook depends on de-escalation and recovering tanker traffic.
- On August 5, Iranian and Omani negotiators were reported to have completed a draft Strait of Hormuz arrangement that still lacked final Iranian approval. Port-blockade relief, control, and service-fee terms remained disputed.
- About three quarters of S&P 500 companies had reported. Wall Street's aggregate profit-growth estimate for the completed season was reported at 50%; that estimate does not describe every company.
- On August 5, Disney rose 3.6%, Booking Holdings rose 6.6%, SpaceX fell 13.6%, Nvidia rose 3.4%, and AMD fell 7% following company-specific earnings or supplier news.
## Scheduled events through the weekly close
- August 6: preliminary Q2 productivity and labor costs; June wholesale trade.
- August 7: July Employment Situation.
- August 11: Treasury three-year note auction.
- August 12: July CPI and real earnings; July business formations; Treasury ten-year note auction; weekly adjusted-close scoring point.
## Additional scheduled events through the monthly close
- August 13: July PPI; Treasury thirty-year bond auction.
- August 14: July retail sales and June business inventories.
- August 18: July import/export prices and July housing starts and permits.
- August 25: August Consumer Confidence and July new-home sales.
- August 26: Q2 GDP second estimate, corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, and July durable-goods advance report.
- August 27: July advance goods trade and inventories.
- September 1: July JOLTS, July construction spending, and August ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- September 2: July factory orders.
- September 3: July international trade and revised Q2 productivity and costs.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET and the monthly adjusted-close scoring point.
## Final neutrality statement
These are fixed, dated datapoints and scheduled statuses available by the cutoff. They are not forecasts except where explicitly labeled, and they do not rank, recommend, interpret, or map CapitalBench choices. Complete deterministic full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and V2.2 quality evidence is supplied separately and mechanically in the model input.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-05-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-05'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-06T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-06T03:31:12.935116+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Wednesday, August 12, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-05'
exit_date: '2026-08-12'
created_at: '2026-08-06T03:31:12.935116+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-06T03:31:12Z. Decision date: August 5, 2026. Weekly scoring window: August 5-August 12. Monthly scoring window: August 5-September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close, rates, and Treasury financing
- On August 5 the S&P 500 closed at 7,723.55, down 0.2%; the Dow closed at a record 54,349.12, up 0.5%; and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,363.44, down 0.8%.
- Brent crude was reported at $79.45 a barrel, down 0.1% that day. It had reached $102 during the conflict.
- Treasury's August 5 par yields were 4.03% at one year, 4.18% at two years, 4.33% at five years, 4.63% at ten years, and 5.17% at thirty years. Treasury describes these as interpolated indicative yields observed near 3:30 p.m. ET.
- Treasury announced $125 billion of August refunding securities: $58 billion at three years, $42 billion at ten years, and $25 billion at thirty years. Auctions are scheduled for August 11, 12, and 13, with August 17 settlement.
- The refunding is expected to retire about $96.3 billion of privately held securities and raise about $28.7 billion of new cash. Treasury said it expects nominal coupon and floating-rate note auction sizes to remain unchanged for at least the next several quarters.
## U.S. policy, growth, inflation, and labor
- On July 29 the FOMC maintained the federal-funds target at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The statement said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%.
- The advance estimate of annualized Q2 real GDP growth was 1.5%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross-domestic-purchases price index increased 5.7%; headline and core PCE prices rose at 5.1% and 3.4% annual rates. A second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- In June, personal income and disposable income each rose 0.2%, nominal spending rose 0.3%, real spending rose 0.4%, and the saving rate was 2.7%. Headline PCE prices fell 0.1% on the month and rose 3.7% over the year; core PCE rose 0.1% and 3.3%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over the year.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices declined 1.4% and services prices rose 0.2%. June data are preliminary.
- BLS reported 57,000 additional payroll jobs in June and unemployment at 4.2%, describing both as little changed.
- June job openings were little changed at 7.4 million. Hires were 5.3 million, total separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million.
- ADP estimated that private employers added 44,000 jobs in July, down from 95,000 in June. Reported year-over-year pay growth was 4.4% for job stayers and 7.0% for job changers. ADP is separate from the BLS payroll report.
## Business activity, consumers, housing, and trade
- The July ISM Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, up from 53.3 and the highest since May 2022. New orders were 56.7 and production was 58.5.
- The July ISM Services PMI was 54.1, compared with 54.0 in June. Business activity was 59.1, new orders 57.2, employment 47.4, and prices 70.3.
- June industrial production increased 0.1% and was 1.1% above a year earlier. Manufacturing output was unchanged. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972-2025 average. June data are preliminary.
- Advance June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% on the month and 6.7% on the year. The monthly change was not statistically different from zero at 90% confidence, and the values are not price-adjusted.
- June housing starts were at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above revised May. Single-family starts were 895,000, down 0.2%. Permits were at a 1.367 million rate, down 3.0%. Sampling intervals were wide.
- July Consumer Confidence declined 1.4 points to 90.8. The Present Situation Index was 114.9 and the Expectations Index was 74.7. The preliminary online survey ended July 22.
- The June goods-and-services trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion. Exports were $314.7 billion and imports were $388.0 billion. The first-half deficit was 33.8% below the same 2025 period.
## Global, energy, geopolitical, and corporate facts
- The IMF's July forecast put global growth at 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027 and stated that global disinflation had stalled. These values are forecasts.
- On July 23 the ECB kept its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%. It said the full inflationary effect of the energy shock had not yet played out.
- The IEA reported June global oil supply at 98.8 million barrels per day, 9.4 million below prewar levels. Gulf exports including bypass routes were 16.1 million barrels per day, compared with a 24 million prewar average. The outlook depends on de-escalation and recovering tanker traffic.
- On August 5, Iranian and Omani negotiators were reported to have completed a draft Strait of Hormuz arrangement that still lacked final Iranian approval. Port-blockade relief, control, and service-fee terms remained disputed.
- About three quarters of S&P 500 companies had reported. Wall Street's aggregate profit-growth estimate for the completed season was reported at 50%; that estimate does not describe every company.
- On August 5, Disney rose 3.6%, Booking Holdings rose 6.6%, SpaceX fell 13.6%, Nvidia rose 3.4%, and AMD fell 7% following company-specific earnings or supplier news.
## Scheduled events through the weekly close
- August 6: preliminary Q2 productivity and labor costs; June wholesale trade.
- August 7: July Employment Situation.
- August 11: Treasury three-year note auction.
- August 12: July CPI and real earnings; July business formations; Treasury ten-year note auction; weekly adjusted-close scoring point.
## Additional scheduled events through the monthly close
- August 13: July PPI; Treasury thirty-year bond auction.
- August 14: July retail sales and June business inventories.
- August 18: July import/export prices and July housing starts and permits.
- August 25: August Consumer Confidence and July new-home sales.
- August 26: Q2 GDP second estimate, corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, and July durable-goods advance report.
- August 27: July advance goods trade and inventories.
- September 1: July JOLTS, July construction spending, and August ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- September 2: July factory orders.
- September 3: July international trade and revised Q2 productivity and costs.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET and the monthly adjusted-close scoring point.
## Final neutrality statement
These are fixed, dated datapoints and scheduled statuses available by the cutoff. They are not forecasts except where explicitly labeled, and they do not rank, recommend, interpret, or map CapitalBench choices. Complete deterministic full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and V2.2 quality evidence is supplied separately and mechanically in the model input.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "8a76c6e6ce6b3fe08a83e293601adca9ec61fd9fbab061267c7005b07e268e29",
"manifest.yaml": "3ace5097a2ef327d9b86a5eae6c916528d603e0a13af38421538cc333ec68151",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "01452f0b6605b6a5bbb41aeac7cb0ceae01707a3b50e4e67e8677f110dfd57bb",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "e505dcc9bdebab90104a2633962e1c8af9ca8ff5065669fe8a52ef419d7053c7",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "8b41b37c274cc8ed126fca5fc5f10dc82104ae74a105a7137c1a6723471657eb",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "4e731484be4ff52ac953325e549bfdfdc0505eb4f9f1cb266766a1bfc41937f8",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "ce923c92767a7f877b296afcf6699160d4e64114d8e46691bd329df3597f0a0a",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "9a5c810361acd46195ff712a92d9da3fec28bea41209304e92f94ff15525fbde",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "1a844da9c59ab06e30e88b53a60f08b23075e0cfd4df40bd80afc8570a93c261",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-05-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
SPY just rallied 5.5% in five sessions while defensive, high-quality-evidence segments (dividend, healthcare, staples) lagged sharply; with payrolls, CPI, and heavy Treasury auctions before the exit close, tilting toward pulled-back defensives with strong prior trends offers positive expected alpha with reduced event risk.
Core SPY plus overweight to lagging defensive equity segments with the strongest supplied quality-evidence scores, positioned for mean reversion after a sharp growth-led rally into a data-heavy week.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings and ISM momentum sustain the rally",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY +5.53% over 5 sessions, -0.20% from 52w high",
"~75% of S&P 500 reported with ~50% aggregate profit growth estimate",
"July ISM Manufacturing 55.6, highest since May 2022"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI or weak auctions driving yields up sharply",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Stretched after 5.5% weekly gain; CPI and auction risk into exit",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend resumes after sharp short-term underperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Top equity quality-evidence score 0.860 with 0.925 prior active rank",
"-6.09% active return over 5 sessions after +6.41% prior 16-session active trend",
"Low volatility 13.34% and shallow -1.42% drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Further growth-led rally with dividend active return below -2% mid-week",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth leadership persists, dividend stocks keep lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 and Treasury auctions favoring low-beta yield names"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mean reversion of oversold defensive sector with positive prior trend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.728; prior active rank 0.776 with 0.896 pullback rank",
"-6.78% active return over 5 sessions after +3.54% prior active trend"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained cyclical rotation or adverse healthcare policy news",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on tape keeps defensives lagging",
"time_window_catalyst": "Data-heavy week culminating in Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Snap-back of oversold defensive with strong prior relative trend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.808 with deepest defensive pullback rank 0.955",
"-7.85% active return over 5 sessions after +5.39% prior active trend",
"June CPI fell 0.4% m/m, supporting real consumer purchasing power"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Staples active return worsening beyond -3% additional mid-week",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Continued growth melt-up leaves staples behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI defensive positioning"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deal stalls, supply stays 9.4 mb/d below prewar, prices rebound",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Hormuz draft arrangement nearing approval could add supply and depress oil",
"USO -11.16% over 5 sessions; XLE -7.81% active"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Deal collapse with Brent back above $90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Deal approval accelerates supply normalization, oil and energy fall further",
"time_window_catalyst": "Possible Hormuz deal finalization within window"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI earnings momentum continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+2.87% active over 5 sessions but -4.28% prior active trend and -8.79% drawdown",
"Mixed chip news: Nvidia +3.4%, AMD -7% on Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Soft CPI plus strong tech tape",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "High beta (1.72) into CPI week after sharp bounce; extended positioning",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI rate sensitivity"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak jobs data drives duration rally",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y yield 5.17%; $125B refunding with 10y auction Aug 12",
"Core CPI 2.6% y/y easing but PCE inflation still elevated"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Poor 10y auction tail with rising yields",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Heavy auction supply and elevated inflation pressure long yields",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 11-12 Treasury auctions and CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dollar weakness and inflation persistence support gold",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +5.01% over 5 sessions; dollar weakening (UUP -1.16% 5s)",
"Middling quality score 0.371, -21.38% from 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Geopolitical deal completion plus dollar rebound",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Hormuz de-escalation reduces safe-haven demand",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 12 CPI real-rate repricing"
}
],
"confidence": 0.52,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.17,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI on Aug 12 could pressure all equities including defensives",
"Continued mega-cap tech momentum would leave defensive tilt lagging SPY",
"Weak Treasury auction demand Aug 11-12 could lift yields and hit rate-sensitive dividend payers",
"Hormuz deal completion could spark broad risk-on cyclical rally"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI print driving yields sharply higher",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure amid strong ISM data and solid earnings season; anchors portfolio through jobs and CPI prints.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 payrolls and Aug 12 CPI before exit close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued mega-cap growth melt-up with defensives underperforming further",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Highest quality-evidence score among equities (0.86), strong prior trend with deep recent relative pullback, near-zero beta cushions CPI-week risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation back toward laggard defensives around Aug 12 CPI and auctions"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy shock or sustained risk-on rotation away from defensives",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Quality score 0.73, prior positive relative trend with recent -6.8% relative pullback offers mean-reversion into a data-heavy week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive bid into Aug 12 CPI and Treasury auctions"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on tape lifting cyclicals while staples lag further",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Quality score 0.81 with the deepest recent relative pullback (0.955 rank) among defensives; low correlation to SPY hedges macro-event risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI print Aug 12; falling June CPI/PCE supports staples margins"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.47,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY just rallied 5.5% in five sessions while defensive, high-quality-evidence segments (dividend, healthcare, staples) lagged sharply; with payrolls, CPI, and heavy Treasury auctions before the exit close, tilting toward pulled-back defensives with strong prior trends offers positive expected alpha with reduced event risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Core SPY plus overweight to lagging defensive equity segments with the strongest supplied quality-evidence scores, positioned for mean reversion after a sharp growth-led rally into a data-heavy week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28248,
"latency_seconds": 52.01547949016094,
"output_tokens": 3545,
"total_tokens": 31793
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Overweight core SP500 with tech and large-growth tilts capturing recent strong relative momentum, kept within cluster caps (tech cluster 50%).
Blend of benchmark plus recent leaders in technology/growth for modest alpha over the one-week window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong breadth and record Dow support continued grind higher",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY +5.53% 5s return",
"near 52w high -0.20%",
"spy_return_21s 2.95%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI well above expectations",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot CPI Aug 12 or weak jobs Aug 7 sparks pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 jobs, Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings strength sustains tech leadership",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLK 3s +6.02%, 5s active +6.08%",
"Nvidia +3.4% Aug 5",
"prior 16s active -4.60% rebound"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield spikes on hot CPI",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High beta 2.15 vulnerable to rate shock",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Growth momentum re-accelerating",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWF 5s active +3.10%",
"3s +4.71%",
"rebound from prior -3.57%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth-stock momentum breaks lower",
"option_id": "LARGE_GROWTH",
"reversal_case": "Rate-sensitive growth hit by yield rise",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Chip demand and AI theme",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH 5s active +7.46%",
"beta 3.09",
"vol 51%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Semi sentiment reverses sharply",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme beta and 51% vol create large drawdown risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation if risk-off",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLV 5s active -6.78%",
"defensive negative beta",
"quality score 0.728"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on continues, defensives lag",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Lagging in risk-on tape",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven and weak dollar tailwind",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 3s +4.83%",
"iau_return_5s 5.01%",
"distance 52w high -21%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields spike higher",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on equities reduce gold demand",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration rally if growth slows",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IEF low vol 4.17%",
"quality score 0.705",
"tlt 21s -1.44%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot CPI lifts yields",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation keeps yields elevated",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 11-12 auctions, CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Hormuz risk premium",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE 3s -3.76%, 5s active -7.81%",
"Brent $79.45 down",
"oil 5s -11.16%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil continues declining",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Falling crude and negative momentum",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz negotiations"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.14,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot July CPI Aug 12 triggers rate-driven equity selloff especially high-beta tech",
"Jobs report Aug 7 surprise shifts Fed expectations",
"Tech momentum reverses after strong run"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI surprise sharply higher drives equity selloff",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad US large-cap; strong 5s momentum and near 52w high, benchmark anchor.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 jobs report and Aug 12 CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Rate spike from hot CPI hits high-beta tech",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Tech sector showing strong recent 3s/5s active return, Nvidia earnings tailwind, momentum after deep prior pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings momentum and CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Rising long yields pressure growth valuations",
"option_id": "LARGE_GROWTH",
"rationale": "Large-cap growth leading with positive 5s active return and rebound after prior weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12; growth-stock sentiment"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.69,
"portfolio_rationale": "Overweight core SP500 with tech and large-growth tilts capturing recent strong relative momentum, kept within cluster caps (tech cluster 50%).",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Blend of benchmark plus recent leaders in technology/growth for modest alpha over the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28254,
"latency_seconds": 38.77630604803562,
"output_tokens": 2342,
"total_tokens": 30596
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
SPY just ran +5.5% in five sessions with all leadership in high-beta tech; breadth lagged badly (RSP-SPY -3.67%). We keep 40% core SPY and add quality-evidence-supported laggards (healthcare, financials) plus gold as a CPI hedge, avoiding chase of semis/Korea extremes.
Modest positive SPY base case into jobs and CPI, with a rotation tilt toward defensively-ranked, recently-lagging exposures and gold rather than extended momentum/tech.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings season (aggregate profit growth reported at 50%), ISM manufacturing highest since 2022.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,723.55 on Aug 5, down 0.2%",
"spy_return_5s +5.53%, 21s +2.95%",
"0.20% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI surprise pushing yields sharply higher and SPY down more than 2%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Sharp 5-day advance leaves market extended into CPI and payrolls; inflation still elevated with 3 FOMC hawkish dissents.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 Employment Situation; Aug 12 July CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend plus deep one-week relative pullback historically mean-reverts.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.728; recent pullback rank 0.896",
"active_return_5s -6.78% with prior 16s active +3.54%",
"beta_spy -0.237, vol 18.2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY by over 2% by mid-week",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Persistent risk-on rotation into tech keeps defensives bleeding.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak dollar, sticky core inflation, elevated 30y yield at 5.17% supports hedge demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"iau_return_5s +5.01%, 21s +3.21%",
"uup_return_5s -1.16%",
"IMF says global disinflation stalled"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rebound with gold breaking prior-week low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Gold is 21% below 52-week high and volatile; a hawkish CPI-driven real-rate jump could hit it.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12; Treasury auctions Aug 11-12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sector at highs with low volatility, strong prior relative trend, and supportive credit (HYG +0.84% 5s).",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"distance_52w_high 0.00%",
"prior_16s_active +3.56%, active_5s -3.20%",
"vol 13.3%, max drawdown -1.93%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG declines materially or XLF breaks below prior-week low",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak labor data (ADP 44k) could raise credit concerns; curve moves against banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury 3y and 10y auctions Aug 11-12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Nvidia +3.4% and AI capex narrative could extend the squeeze.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +7.46% after prior 16s -10.84%",
"volatility 51.2%, max drawdown -17.5%",
"AMD fell 7% on Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH drops more than 5% from entry",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extreme volatility and lowest quality score (0.028); sharp reversal risk after a 7.5% weekly active gain.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chip earnings/supplier news within week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply still 9.4 mb/d below prewar could re-tighten if talks fail.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"uso_return_5s -11.16%",
"Brent $79.45, had reached $102 during conflict",
"Draft Strait of Hormuz arrangement lacks final Iranian approval"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Final Hormuz deal signed",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation headlines would keep crushing crude; 67% vol.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/Oman Hormuz approval news"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration hedge if labor data weakens.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.684, low vol 3.69%",
"10y 4.63%, 30y 5.17%",
"$125bn refunding auctions Aug 11-13"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield rises above 4.85%",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Heavy supply and elevated inflation cap rallies.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12 and auctions"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth catch-up trade after extreme mega-cap concentration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_5s -3.67%",
"quality score 0.670",
"vol 11.4%, drawdown -1.46%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP lags SPY by another 2%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap leadership can persist for weeks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "CPI Aug 12"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.34,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Tech momentum continues and mega-cap leadership extends SPY gains beyond our tilts",
"Hot July CPI on Aug 12 hurts gold-adjacent and rate-sensitive names simultaneously",
"Financials give back gains if Treasury auctions go poorly and curve flattens",
"Healthcare defensive bid fades if risk appetite stays elevated"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "CPI upside surprise or payroll shock driving SPY below -2% intraweek",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure given a strong tape and record Dow; limits tracking error.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 7 jobs report and Aug 12 July CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by more than 2% mid-week",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strong prior relative trend and deep recent relative pullback; negative SPY beta offers CPI-day hedge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12; ongoing earnings tail"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rallies sharply and gold breaks below prior-week low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Sticky inflation (core PCE 3.3%, disinflation stalled), weak dollar 5s/21s, hedge into CPI print.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI Aug 12; Treasury auctions Aug 11-12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen (HYG falls) or curve flattens sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "At 52-week high with strong prior active return, low volatility and shallow drawdown; lagged last week so mean-reversion room.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury 3y/10y auctions Aug 11-12 shaping curve"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.64,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY just ran +5.5% in five sessions with all leadership in high-beta tech; breadth lagged badly (RSP-SPY -3.67%). We keep 40% core SPY and add quality-evidence-supported laggards (healthcare, financials) plus gold as a CPI hedge, avoiding chase of semis/Korea extremes.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Modest positive SPY base case into jobs and CPI, with a rotation tilt toward defensively-ranked, recently-lagging exposures and gold rather than extended momentum/tech.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28248,
"latency_seconds": 43.135010513011366,
"output_tokens": 3143,
"total_tokens": 31391
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is fully allocated to the S&P 500 benchmark. This reflects a neutral stance given the mixed economic signals and the short one-week horizon.
A 100% SPY allocation is selected due to the lack of compelling active opportunities with a higher base forecast over the one-week scoring window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Steady economic growth and corporate earnings support current valuations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,723.55, down 0.2% on August 5.",
"Advance estimate of annualized Q2 real GDP growth was 1.5%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant upside surprise in CPI data leading to a sharp market sell-off.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A negative surprise in upcoming inflation data or geopolitical events.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI data on August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields remain stable in the short term.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Treasury's August 5 par yields were 4.03% at one year."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant change in short-term interest rates.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A sudden shift in Fed policy expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued strength in tech earnings and AI themes.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,363.44, down 0.8% on August 5."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp increase in Treasury yields.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "A rotation out of growth stocks due to rising rate expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oil prices stabilize or rise due to geopolitical tensions.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude was reported at $79.45 a barrel, down 0.1%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant drop in oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A resolution to geopolitical conflicts or weaker global demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in the Strait of Hormuz arrangement"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand increases due to market uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold has a quality evidence score of 0.371."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp increase in real interest rates.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A strong US dollar or rising real interest rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI data on August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European economic data shows signs of improvement.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.25%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant deterioration in European economic indicators.",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Energy costs rise or economic data weakens.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.5,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unexpected inflation data from the July CPI report.",
"Geopolitical escalation impacting global markets.",
"A sudden shift in Federal Reserve rate expectations."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant upside surprise in CPI data leading to a sharp market sell-off.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Given the mixed economic data and lack of clear catalysts for active outperformance over a one-week horizon, a 100% allocation to the S&P 500 is the most prudent approach.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI data on August 12"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is fully allocated to the S&P 500 benchmark. This reflects a neutral stance given the mixed economic signals and the short one-week horizon.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A 100% SPY allocation is selected due to the lack of compelling active opportunities with a higher base forecast over the one-week scoring window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17369,
"latency_seconds": 12.677618731977418,
"output_tokens": 1474,
"total_tokens": 18843
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts away from the recently concentrated SPY advance toward candidates with better pullback or independent catalyst support. It balances energy supply risk, rate-sensitive rebound potential, technology continuation, international mean reversion, and financials without breaching the 50% cluster cap.
SPY has strong recent gains but faces reversal risk around payrolls, CPI, and Treasury auctions. The selected holdings each have base forecasts above SPY and span multiple clusters for one-week alpha potential.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad earnings support remains, with about three quarters of S&P 500 companies reported and aggregate profit-growth estimate at 50%.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 0.2% on August 5 while Nasdaq fell 0.8%.",
"SPY return_5s was 5.53% and return_21s was 2.95%.",
"SPY volatility_21s was 14.22% and distance from 52-week high was -0.20%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks above its 52-week-high area on broad participation and equal-weight improves versus market-cap weight.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The 5-session advance is extended and could fade around payrolls, CPI, or rate volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on August 7, July CPI on August 12, and Treasury auctions on August 11-12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend plus a sharp pullback can rebound if supply constraints and disputed Hormuz terms keep geopolitical risk premium alive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy quality evidence score was 0.818 with prior active rank 0.970 and recent pullback rank 0.940.",
"ENERGY prior_16s_active_return was 9.78%, but active_return_5s was -7.81%.",
"IEA reported June global oil supply 9.4 million barrels per day below prewar levels, with Gulf exports below prewar average."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Final de-escalation or port-blockade relief that clearly restores Gulf exports and pushes energy equities below recent relative lows.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Energy may continue to lag if crude weakness persists or a final Hormuz deal reduces supply-risk premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz arrangement status and oil-supply/geopolitical headlines before August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "High pullback and prior trend ranks support a short-term rebound if labor or CPI data ease rate-pressure concerns.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Real estate quality evidence score was 0.816 with prior active rank 0.851 and recent pullback rank 0.925.",
"REAL_ESTATE active_return_5s was -7.18% after prior_16s_active_return of 4.82%.",
"REAL_ESTATE volatility_21s was 14.13% and max_drawdown_21s was -2.04%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "A hotter CPI or stronger rate selloff that lifts longer Treasury yields and breaks the recent drawdown range.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Hot CPI, firm wage data, or Treasury-auction pressure could lift yields and extend rate-sensitive underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on August 7 and July CPI on August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strength has some prior support and may continue if technology risk appetite persists after company-specific earnings news.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE return_3s was 7.12% and active_return_5s was 4.15%.",
"SOFTWARE prior_16s_active_return was 0.57%, unlike several high-beta technology groups with negative prior active returns.",
"SOFTWARE volatility_21s was 29.83% and max_drawdown_21s was -7.47%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth stocks reverse sharply versus SPY or software loses its recent 3-day leadership.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and recent gains create risk of a sharp factor reversal, especially if rates rise on CPI.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of post-earnings technology risk appetite through the weekly close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior active trend and moderate recent pullback support a rebound if international risk appetite holds.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"CHINA quality evidence score was 0.743 with prior active rank 0.955.",
"CHINA prior_16s_active_return was 8.79% while active_return_5s was -3.82%.",
"CHINA volatility_21s was 17.23% and max_drawdown_21s was -2.22%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "China equities fail to stabilize after the pullback or global risk-off flows intensify.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Country-specific policy or geopolitical risk could keep China equities weak despite the prior trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global risk appetite and any China-sensitive commodity or trade sentiment before August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Near-52-week-high positioning and positive prior relative performance may continue if growth data remain firm and credit concerns stay contained.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS quality evidence score was 0.667 with prior active rank 0.791.",
"FINANCIALS prior_16s_active_return was 3.56%, while active_return_5s was -3.20%.",
"FINANCIALS distance_52w_high was 0.00% and volatility_21s was 13.31%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield-curve or credit concerns cause financials to underperform and lose their 52-week-high area.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "A risk-off move, yield-curve pressure, or weaker labor data could reverse financial leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation and Treasury refunding/rate-curve reaction before August 12."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand could persist if geopolitical uncertainty or inflation concerns rise into CPI.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD return_5s was 5.01% and return_21s was 3.21%.",
"GOLD active_return_5s was -0.52% despite strong absolute gains.",
"GOLD quality evidence score was 0.371 and distance_52w_high was -21.38%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.05,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold fails to outperform SPY during risk-off or inflation-risk episodes.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A firmer dollar or higher real-rate expectations could undercut gold after recent gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI on August 12 and geopolitical headlines before the weekly close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like Treasury bill exposure should remain stable through employment, CPI, and auction events.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SHORT_TREASURY quality evidence score was 0.796 with low volatility rank 1.000 and shallow drawdown rank 1.000.",
"SHORT_TREASURY return_3s was 0.03% and volatility_21s was 0.19%.",
"Treasury one-year par yield was 4.03% on August 5."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.02,
"invalidation_condition": "Short-bill ETF price stability breaks or equity upside materially exceeds cash-like carry.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its low risk also means it is unlikely to beat SPY if equities rise over the week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond ordinary short-bill carry through the scoring window."
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.3275,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July payrolls or CPI surprise in a way that favors mega-cap SPY over active sector tilts.",
"A rapid geopolitical de-escalation could hurt the energy allocation.",
"Technology leadership could reverse after recent sharp gains, weighing on software.",
"Treasury refunding or inflation data could push yields higher and pressure real estate."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Final de-escalation or port-blockade relief that clearly restores Gulf exports and pushes energy equities below recent relative lows.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has the strongest prior active return and high quality evidence, with crude-related geopolitical supply constraints still unresolved despite recent weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Hormuz arrangement status and oil-supply/geopolitical headlines before August 12."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "A hotter CPI or stronger rate selloff that lifts longer Treasury yields and breaks the recent drawdown range.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "Real estate combines high quality evidence with a recent pullback and shallow drawdown, offering rebound potential if CPI or labor data ease rate pressure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on August 7 and July CPI on August 12."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth stocks reverse sharply versus SPY or software loses its recent 3-day leadership.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Software has strong short-term price action and a positive prior active return, with less severe drawdown than the most speculative technology subsectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continuation of post-earnings technology risk appetite through the weekly close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "China equities fail to stabilize after the pullback or global risk-off flows intensify.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "China has a very strong prior active trend and moderate pullback evidence, providing differentiated international equity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global risk appetite and any China-sensitive commodity or trade sentiment before August 12."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield-curve or credit concerns cause financials to underperform and lose their 52-week-high area.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials have positive prior relative performance, low volatility versus SPY, and are near a 52-week high, supported by firm domestic activity data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation and Treasury refunding/rate-curve reaction before August 12."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.4275,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts away from the recently concentrated SPY advance toward candidates with better pullback or independent catalyst support. It balances energy supply risk, rate-sensitive rebound potential, technology continuation, international mean reversion, and financials without breaching the 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has strong recent gains but faces reversal risk around payrolls, CPI, and Treasury auctions. The selected holdings each have base forecasts above SPY and span multiple clusters for one-week alpha potential.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15837,
"latency_seconds": 38.07414512895048,
"output_tokens": 2685,
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"total_tokens": 18522
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors four distinct clusters with pullback-rebound or supported continuation cases. Dividend and real estate provide defensive exposure, energy supplies event-driven upside, and software retains measured participation in growth momentum.
Each selected active holding has a base forecast above SPY's 0.15% forecast. The weighted base return is 0.55%, implying expected one-week alpha of 0.40 percentage point.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong aggregate profit growth and broad positive asset participation could sustain the rally.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 5.53% over five sessions and ended only 0.20% below its 52-week high.",
"Equal-weight SPY lagged SPY by 3.67 percentage points over five sessions.",
"July employment and CPI are scheduled before or at the exit close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The cautious case is invalidated if SPY closes at a new high with equal-weight participation strengthening after employment data.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The sharp five-session gain, narrow breadth, elevated inflation, and event risk create scope for consolidation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment on August 7 and CPI on August 12 are the principal scheduled catalysts."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior relative strength and shallow drawdown can reassert themselves as investors rotate toward profitable defensive equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND has a 0.860 quality evidence score, the highest among the assessed equity candidates.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was 6.41%, followed by a 6.09% five-session active underperformance.",
"Its 21-session maximum drawdown was only 1.42%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SCHD continues underperforming SPY after the employment report while long yields rise.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Continued mega-cap growth leadership could leave dividend equities lagging despite their pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment on August 7 and CPI on August 12 could favor profitable defensive equities if growth or inflation surprises negatively."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Failure to finalize the Hormuz arrangement could restore a geopolitical premium after the sharp pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY has a 0.818 quality evidence score and a 9.78% prior active return.",
"It underperformed SPY by 7.81% over five sessions as crude retreated sharply.",
"The reported Hormuz draft lacked final Iranian approval and retained disputed terms."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the Hormuz arrangement receives final approval and energy equities break below their August 5 close as crude continues falling.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Final approval and recovering tanker traffic could push crude and energy equities lower.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Potential developments before August 12 regarding final Iranian approval and disputed terms of the Strait of Hormuz arrangement; no scheduled resolution is identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A softer labor or CPI reading could lower yields and trigger a rebound from the relative pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"REAL_ESTATE has a 0.816 quality evidence score and a 0.925 recent-pullback rank.",
"Its prior active return was 4.82% before 7.18% five-session active underperformance.",
"Its 21-session drawdown was 2.04%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the ten-year Treasury yield rises above its August 5 level after CPI and XLRE remains below its August 5 close.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Hot CPI or weak Treasury-auction demand could raise yields and prolong rate-sensitive underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment on August 7, CPI on August 12, and the August 11-12 Treasury auctions can move yields before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive prior active performance and current relative strength could continue if macro releases ease rate pressure.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE rose 7.12% over three sessions and outperformed SPY by 4.15% over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was positive at 0.57%.",
"Its quality evidence score was only 0.243 and 21-session volatility was 29.83%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if IGV loses its recent relative-strength trend and underperforms SPY through the August 7 employment reaction.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "The sharp recent gain, low quality score, and high volatility leave the exposure vulnerable to profit-taking.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI could extend growth-equity demand if they reduce rate pressure; no software-specific scheduled catalyst is identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior relative performance and the recent pullback could support renewed international diversification.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"CHINA has a 0.743 quality evidence score and an 8.79% prior active return.",
"It underperformed SPY by 3.82% over five sessions.",
"No China-specific catalyst before August 12 was supplied."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "The rebound case is invalidated if MCHI falls below its recent pullback low while continuing to underperform SPY.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "The absence of a near-term catalyst and sensitivity to policy and geopolitical risk could extend weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "No China-specific catalyst before the August 12 close is identified."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Accrued bill income and minimal duration exposure should preserve capital through volatile data releases.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SHORT_TREASURY has a 0.796 quality evidence score and 0.19% 21-session volatility.",
"The one-year Treasury par yield was 4.03% on August 5.",
"Its three-session return was 0.03%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.02,
"invalidation_condition": "The relative case is invalidated if SPY advances after employment and CPI without a volatility increase.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its low volatility also limits upside, making it unlikely to beat SPY if equities rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI may increase demand for capital preservation, though no material price catalyst is identified."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.4,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A strong employment or hot CPI report could lift yields and pressure real estate and software.",
"Final approval of the Strait of Hormuz arrangement could extend the decline in crude and energy equities.",
"The recent mega-cap-led SPY rally could continue while dividend and other lagging exposures remain weak.",
"Software's recent strength may reverse because its quality evidence score is low and volatility is elevated."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if SCHD continues underperforming SPY after the employment report while long yields rise.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong quality evidence, prior relative strength, and a sharp recent relative pullback favor defensive rotation if market breadth improves.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment on August 7 and CPI on August 12 could favor profitable defensive equities if growth or inflation surprises negatively."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the Hormuz arrangement receives final approval and energy equities break below their August 5 close as crude continues falling.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy combines high quality evidence and strong prior relative trend with a deep pullback that may reverse if geopolitical de-escalation remains incomplete.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Potential developments before August 12 regarding final Iranian approval and disputed terms of the Strait of Hormuz arrangement; no scheduled resolution is identified."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if the ten-year Treasury yield rises above its August 5 level after CPI and XLRE remains below its August 5 close.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "High pullback and quality ranks support a rebound, with weak labor or benign CPI offering a plausible near-term rates catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment on August 7, CPI on August 12, and the August 11-12 Treasury auctions can move yields before the exit close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Invalidated if IGV loses its recent relative-strength trend and underperforms SPY through the August 7 employment reaction.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Software has both recent strength and positive prior active performance, though low quality evidence warrants a limited allocation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July employment and CPI could extend growth-equity demand if they reduce rate pressure; no software-specific scheduled catalyst is identified."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors four distinct clusters with pullback-rebound or supported continuation cases. Dividend and real estate provide defensive exposure, energy supplies event-driven upside, and software retains measured participation in growth momentum.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Each selected active holding has a base forecast above SPY's 0.15% forecast. The weighted base return is 0.55%, implying expected one-week alpha of 0.40 percentage point.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15839,
"latency_seconds": 47.591442918172106,
"output_tokens": 2947,
"reasoning_tokens": 886,
"total_tokens": 18786
}
}xai-grok-4-3
SPY selected as sole holding after screening showed no qualifying active options with superior base-case forecasts. Allocation maximizes expected return within constraints for the one-week window.
SPY base forecast set at 0.4% given recent close and scheduled data releases; portfolio expected return equals benchmark with zero alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Steady equity participation supported by manufacturing strength and corporate earnings season completion",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7,723.55 down 0.2% on August 5",
"July ISM Manufacturing PMI at 55.6 highest since May 2022"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Disappointing July CPI or employment data triggers risk-off rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend tilt persists on rate stability",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"High quality evidence score 0.860",
"Recent active return negative versus SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth rotation accelerates after CPI print",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive staples hold on consumer caution",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"High quality evidence score 0.808",
"June retail sales up only 0.2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Stronger than expected CPI lifts cyclical sectors",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply concerns support energy",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $79.45",
"High quality evidence score 0.818"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Strait of Hormuz draft agreement reduces risk premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive healthcare benefits from labor stability",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"High quality evidence score 0.728",
"June job openings little changed"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "CPI upside surprises pressure rate-sensitive defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration provides ballast ahead of data releases",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"10-year Treasury yield 4.63%",
"High quality evidence score 0.705"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Stronger growth data pushes yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and inflation uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU 5-day return 5.01%",
"Quality evidence score 0.371"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength or risk-on equity rally reduces gold appeal",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
}
],
"confidence": 0.52,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"July CPI release on August 12 could trigger volatility",
"FOMC dissent signals persistent inflation concerns",
"Weak June payrolls and ADP data point to labor softening"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7650 on August 12",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "No active option base forecast exceeds SPY; broad equity exposure aligns with neutral one-week outlook amid mixed macro data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release August 12"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY selected as sole holding after screening showed no qualifying active options with superior base-case forecasts. Allocation maximizes expected return within constraints for the one-week window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base forecast set at 0.4% given recent close and scheduled data releases; portfolio expected return equals benchmark with zero alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16053,
"latency_seconds": 17.805536492029205,
"output_tokens": 1391,
"reasoning_tokens": 652,
"total_tokens": 18096
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in four clusters with base forecasts above SPY, balancing tech momentum, energy reversion, gold inflation hedge, and value/financials quality while respecting 50% cluster cap.
Selected holdings clear the SPY base hurdle on recent relative trends, quality ranks, and near-term catalysts including jobs, CPI, and Hormuz news; weighted base targets modest alpha over the one-week window.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong recent momentum, solid ISM readings, and completed earnings season support further gains into jobs/CPI.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7723.55 down 0.2% on Aug 5 with 5s return 5.53%",
"About three quarters of S&P 500 companies reported with aggregate profit-growth estimate 50%",
"July ISM Manufacturing PMI 55.6 highest since May 2022"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Payrolls or CPI print triggers sharp risk-off move below recent lows",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation (core PCE 3.3% y/y) and FOMC split vote raise risk of hawkish data reaction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7 and July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent relative outperformance and mega-cap earnings momentum can extend if labor/CPI data cooperate.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"TECHNOLOGY return_3s 6.02% and active_return_5s 6.08%",
"Nvidia rose 3.4% on Aug 5 following company-specific news",
"Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.8% on Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Hotter-than-expected CPI or weak tech follow-through after Nvidia move",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "High 21s volatility 35.64% and deep prior active weakness leave room for sharp mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7 and July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High quality rank and strong prior active trend favor bounce if Hormuz de-escalation progresses.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY quality evidence score 0.818 with prior_16s_active_return 9.78%",
"Brent crude at $79.45 down 0.1%; had reached $102 during conflict",
"Iranian and Omani negotiators completed draft Strait of Hormuz arrangement"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Further oil price decline below recent levels or failed de-escalation news",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Recent 3s return -3.76% and oil supply still 9.4 mb/d below prewar could extend weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Strait of Hormuz draft arrangement updates before Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated inflation readings and recent positive returns support further gains as haven/inflation hedge.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD return_3s 4.83% and iau_return_5s 5.01%",
"Headline PCE rose 3.7% y/y; FOMC said inflation remained elevated relative to 2%",
"distance_52w_high -21.38%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp USD rebound or cooler CPI reducing haven demand",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "USD strength or cooler CPI could reverse the 5s advance given distance from highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release on Aug 12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "At 52-week high with stable labor data and solid quality rank, modest upside continues.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS quality evidence score 0.667 and distance_52w_high 0.00%",
"BLS reported 57,000 June payrolls and unemployment 4.2% little changed",
"Treasury par yields 4.63% at ten years on Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Payrolls surprise sharply weaker or yield curve stress from auctions",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Auction supply and any curve steepening or credit stress could pressure banks/insurers.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on Aug 7"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High quality score, low vol, and Dow record support mild outperformance versus cap-weighted SPY.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE quality evidence score 0.678 with shallow drawdown rank 0.866",
"prior_16s_active_return 3.16% and volatility_21s 10.09%",
"Dow closed at record 54349.12 up 0.5% on Aug 5"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity reversal on hot CPI or strong USD",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "If growth/tech re-accelerates strongly, value relative lag could resume.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding auctions Aug 11-12"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Near-zero vol and positive carry provide stable positive return in any risk-off scenario.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SHORT_TREASURY quality evidence score 0.796 with low volatility rank 1.000",
"Treasury one-year par yield 4.03% on Aug 5",
"return_3s 0.03%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained equity rally making cash drag decisive",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Strong risk-on equity week would cause large relative underperformance versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "none identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hotter July CPI on Aug 12 triggers rate-hike fears and equity selloff",
"Weaker-than-expected Employment Situation on Aug 7 sparks growth scare",
"Treasury auction supply on Aug 11-12 pressures yields and risk assets",
"Failure of Hormuz draft leads to renewed energy volatility drag"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hotter-than-expected CPI or weak tech follow-through after Nvidia move",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Recent relative strength and mega-cap earnings support with Nvidia bounce; base exceeds SPY for weekly alpha.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation Aug 7 and July CPI Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Further oil price decline below recent levels or failed de-escalation news",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "High quality score and prior active strength plus Hormuz draft news support mean-reversion bounce from recent oil weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Strait of Hormuz draft arrangement updates before Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp USD rebound or cooler CPI reducing haven demand",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Positive 5s return and inflation still elevated vs 2% target provide weekly support above SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July CPI release on Aug 12"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Payrolls surprise sharply weaker or yield curve stress from auctions",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Solid quality rank, at 52w high, and stable labor data support modest outperformance vs SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July Employment Situation on Aug 7"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity reversal on hot CPI or strong USD",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "High quality evidence score and shallower drawdown favor mild continuation above SPY base in risk-on week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Treasury refunding auctions Aug 11-12"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.155,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in four clusters with base forecasts above SPY, balancing tech momentum, energy reversion, gold inflation hedge, and value/financials quality while respecting 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings clear the SPY base hurdle on recent relative trends, quality ranks, and near-term catalysts including jobs, CPI, and Hormuz news; weighted base targets modest alpha over the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-05-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16913,
"latency_seconds": 67.91581050911918,
"output_tokens": 2506,
"reasoning_tokens": 1747,
"total_tokens": 21166
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)35%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)15% | 0.52 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Technology Sector (XLK)25%US Large-Cap Growth (IWF)25% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Gold (IAU)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Energy Sector (XLE)25%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)25%Software (IGV)25%China Equities (MCHI)15%Financials Sector (XLF)10% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Energy Sector (XLE)30%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)20%Software (IGV)20% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.52 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Technology Sector (XLK)30%Energy Sector (XLE)25%Gold (IAU)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-08-05 | 252.28 | Adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-08-05 | 93.34 | Adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-08-05 | 27.63 | Adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-08-05 | 30.14 | Adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-08-05 | 122.40 | Adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-08-05 | 153.01 | Adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-08-05 | 36.74 | Adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-08-05 | 36.11 | Adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-08-05 | 62.36 | Adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-08-05 | 16.98 | Adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-08-05 | 60.78 | Adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-08-05 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-08-05 | 56.01 | Adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-08-05 | 110.87 | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-08-05 | 118.64 | Adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-08-05 | 85.33 | Adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-08-05 | 40.85 | Adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-08-05 | 114.88 | Adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-08-05 | 97.57 | Adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-08-05 | 72.35 | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-08-05 | 95.17 | Adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-08-05 | 60.01 | Adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-08-05 | 57.31 | Adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-08-05 | 219.73 | Adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-08-05 | 14.48 | Adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-08-05 | 106.59 | Adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-08-05 | 91.85 | Adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-08-05 | 58.00 | Adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-08-05 | 79.85 | Adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-08-05 | 164.16 | Adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-08-05 | 79.52 | Adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-08-05 | 50.31 | Adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-08-05 | 186.35 | Adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-08-05 | 93.31 | Adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-08-05 | 47.99 | Adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-08-05 | 106.74 | Adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-08-05 | 95.16 | Adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-08-05 | 58.15 | Adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-08-05 | 83.00 | Adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-08-05 | 52.64 | Adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-08-05 | 111.92 | Adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-08-05 | 76.69 | Adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-08-05 | 105.82 | Adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-08-05 | 717.30 | Adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-08-05 | 45.20 | Adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-08-05 | 77.34 | Adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-08-05 | 769.79 | Adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-08-05 | 569.70 | Adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-08-05 | 91.43 | Adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-08-05 | 56.07 | Adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-08-05 | 101.31 | Adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-08-05 | 51.27 | Adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-08-05 | 66.85 | Adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-08-05 | 169.14 | Adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-08-05 | 101.70 | Adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-08-05 | 185.91 | Adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-08-05 | 379.65 | Adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-08-05 | 107.00 | Adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-08-05 | 48.37 | Adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-08-05 | 97.71 | Adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-08-05 | 33.64 | Adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-08-05 | 28.09 | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-08-05 | 123.89 | Adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-08-05 | 256.13 | Adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-08-05 | 76.33 | Adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-08-05 | 77.00 | Adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-08-05 | 309.98 | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-08-05 | 299.77 | Adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-08-05 | 225.08 | Adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-08-05 | 43.66 | Adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 8a76c6e6ce6b...7e268e29 |
| manifest.yaml | 3ace5097a2ef...3ec68151 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 01452f0b6605...0dfd57bb |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | e505dcc9bdeb...9d7053c7 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 8b41b37c274c...471657eb |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 4e731484be4f...c41937f8 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | ce923c92767a...597f0a0a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 9a5c810361ac...5525fbde |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |