6 valid portfolios
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
Round audit packet
CB-2026-07-06-1W
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Test CB-2026-07-06-1W pending
Portfolios Frozen By 2026-07-07
Start Date 2026-07-06
End Date 2026-07-13
Run ID official-20260706
- 1 Inputs saved
7 public audit hashes are available.
- 2 Portfolios collected
6 valid model portfolios.
- 3 Start priced
70 starting-price rows published.
- 4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-07-13 prices are available.
Round state
Pending Score Pending
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
70 saved choices
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Ending prices pending
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
Input audit hashes
7 artifacts published.
Public run selected
official-20260706
Model-facing prompt available
42,540 shared prompt characters.
Ending prices pending
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Model consensus
Score pending Where Models Concentrated In This Round
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Interim tracking
Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
Live chart pending
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
Saved model-facing context Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a
small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 42,540 characters
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical price-context table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and price-context table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to allocate to an option. When recent performance matters to a holding, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- If a holding rationale cites momentum, recent returns, or trailing performance, do not present price history alone as independent evidence. Mention any independent support present in the briefing, or state that support is limited, and include the relevant reversal or positioning risk in key_risks.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-06
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-07T01:56:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-07T07:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-06
- Exit date: 2026-07-13
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench July 6, 2026 Weekly Briefing
Data status: facts below use public information available through 2026-07-07T01:56:00Z. Equity index closes are for Monday, July 6, 2026. Mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative context is generated separately and follows this briefing in the model input. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Snapshot
- On Monday, July 6, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,537.43, up 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,055.91, up 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,121.16, up 1.1%. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,009.54, up 0.4%.
- Year to date through July 6, the S&P 500 was up 10.1%, the Dow was up 10.4%, the Nasdaq was up 12.4%, and the Russell 2000 was up 21.3%.
- AP reported that the S&P 500 moved within 1% of its all-time high, while most stocks in the index declined.
- VIX was listed at 15.57 on July 6, down 0.58 points or 3.59%, with previous close 16.15.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.47%, down from 4.49% late Thursday.
- Brent crude was reported near $71.99 per barrel. MarketWatch reported WTI August crude at $68.28 and Brent September crude at $71.65 after an OPEC+ production decision.
## Labor, Inflation, And Policy
- June 2026 nonfarm payroll employment changed little at +57,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. Labor force participation decreased to 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.0%.
- June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.5% year over year. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
- April payroll growth was revised from +179,000 to +148,000, and May was revised from +172,000 to +129,000. The combined revision was -74,000.
- May personal income rose 0.7%, disposable personal income rose 0.7%, PCE rose 0.7%, and real PCE rose 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- May PCE prices rose 0.4% month over month and 4.1% year over year. Core PCE prices rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
- On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. The FOMC statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal.
## Business Activity And Supply Chains
- June 2026 ISM Services PMI was 54.0%, down 0.5 percentage point from May. Business Activity was 55.4%, New Orders was 55.1%, Employment was 51.2%, Supplier Deliveries was 54.4%, and Prices was 67.7%.
- The ISM Services Employment Index expanded for the first time in four months, rising 3.3 percentage points from May's 47.9% to 51.2%.
- The ISM Services Prices Index decreased to 67.7%, 3.6 percentage points below May.
- June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI was 53.3%, down 0.7 percentage point from May. New Orders were 56.0%, Production was 52.2%, Employment was 49.7%, Supplier Deliveries were 57.4%, and Prices were 73.0%.
- ISM Services listed computers and related items, electronic components, memory components, software licensing, steel products, switchgear, transformers, and wire and cable among commodities in short supply.
## Company And Sector Datapoints
- AP reported Broadcom rose 3.7% after announcing long-term agreements to provide silicon products to Apple.
- AP reported TeraWulf rose 4.9% after announcing a 20-year data center deal with Anthropic valued at $19 billion.
- AP reported SK Hynix said it plans to raise $28 billion through a U.S. stock offering.
- Tesla reported Q2 2026 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy storage deployments of 13.5 GWh.
- TSMC's Q2 2026 page listed guidance of $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion in net revenue, 65.5% to 67.5% gross margin, and 56.5% to 58.5% operating margin.
## Weekly Calendar
- The Federal Reserve calendar lists FOMC minutes for the June 16-17 meeting on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 2:00 p.m.
- The Federal Reserve calendar lists Consumer Credit for Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 3:00 p.m.
- TSMC listed Monthly Sales - June 2026 for Friday, July 10, 2026.
## Round Timing
- CB-2026-07-06-1W uses July 6, 2026 as the entry-date close and July 13, 2026 as the exit-date close.
## Full-Universe Trailing Returns
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-06
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-06 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -2.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-06 | 0.06% | 0.27% | 1.45% | 3.50% | -1.85% | 0.25% | -0.01% | 72.22% | -0.01% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-06 | 1.39% | 2.12% | 9.17% | 21.47% | 0.00% | 16.57% | -3.17% | 44.44% | -0.84% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-06 | 1.24% | 2.58% | 9.58% | 22.07% | 0.45% | 15.78% | -2.49% | 44.44% | -0.43% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | -0.17% | 2.63% | 16.22% | 30.58% | 0.51% | 31.71% | -4.93% | 44.44% | -3.02% | 1.37 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-06 | 0.84% | 0.34% | 3.60% | 15.31% | -1.78% | 23.63% | -5.03% | 44.44% | -4.40% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-06 | 1.85% | 4.91% | 14.96% | 27.29% | 2.78% | 14.28% | -1.39% | 61.11% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-06 | -0.14% | 3.60% | 11.68% | 21.36% | 1.47% | 15.55% | -1.55% | 61.11% | -0.89% | 1.00 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-06 | -0.02% | 6.38% | 17.21% | 35.38% | 4.25% | 16.58% | -1.62% | 61.11% | -0.52% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-06 | 0.21% | 6.25% | 18.73% | 36.70% | 4.13% | 12.81% | -1.77% | 55.56% | 0.00% | 1.03 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.97% | 0.61% | 16.67% | 22.21% | -1.51% | 12.50% | -2.93% | 50.00% | -1.02% | 0.30 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.77% | 3.87% | 7.51% | 6.40% | 1.75% | 14.47% | -1.89% | 61.11% | -0.91% | 0.06 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-06 | -4.25% | 5.09% | 24.89% | 35.35% | 2.96% | 47.53% | -8.31% | 55.56% | -6.81% | 1.49 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -0.99% | 1.94% | 25.48% | 43.63% | -0.19% | 39.76% | -6.02% | 50.00% | -7.28% | 1.66 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 2.16% | -1.05% | -5.52% | 3.29% | -3.17% | 19.25% | -5.76% | 55.56% | -7.69% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 0.76% | 2.95% | -2.14% | 7.52% | 0.82% | 23.51% | -4.21% | 61.11% | -4.85% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -0.32% | 1.49% | 9.93% | 5.17% | -0.63% | 18.70% | -3.58% | 50.00% | -5.39% | -0.03 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 0.76% | 6.32% | 3.32% | 21.62% | 4.19% | 20.84% | -3.34% | 61.11% | -1.09% | 0.36 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 4.50% | 7.72% | 0.40% | 7.18% | 5.59% | 13.46% | -1.44% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 1.53% | 6.80% | 15.13% | 25.79% | 4.67% | 24.76% | -3.38% | 72.22% | 0.00% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -0.84% | -7.21% | 18.02% | 25.90% | -9.33% | 20.94% | -8.81% | 33.33% | -14.46% | -0.16 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 2.61% | 3.05% | 10.33% | 15.85% | 0.93% | 22.85% | -3.55% | 61.11% | -2.26% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -1.56% | 2.79% | 6.99% | 13.79% | 0.67% | 15.83% | -3.10% | 72.22% | -3.82% | 0.18 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -1.40% | -0.05% | 10.51% | 9.61% | -2.17% | 19.18% | -3.31% | 55.56% | -2.10% | 0.31 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.60% | 0.93% | -0.62% | 2.93% | -1.19% | 5.46% | -0.76% | 66.67% | -2.65% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -1.93% | 0.83% | -0.27% | 2.33% | -1.29% | 10.16% | -1.93% | 50.00% | -4.52% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.32% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 2.43% | -1.85% | 4.56% | -0.78% | 61.11% | -1.66% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-06 | -0.59% | 0.82% | 0.22% | 3.83% | -1.31% | 5.12% | -0.78% | 55.56% | -1.26% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-06 | 0.29% | 1.02% | 1.18% | 4.84% | -1.10% | 3.38% | -0.39% | 44.44% | -0.09% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.38% | 0.84% | 0.28% | 3.88% | -1.29% | 4.08% | -0.54% | 66.67% | -1.41% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.37% | 4.48% | 12.86% | 29.27% | 2.36% | 22.38% | -3.07% | 61.11% | -0.69% | 1.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.50% | 3.64% | 8.19% | 23.23% | 1.51% | 22.05% | -4.34% | 50.00% | -1.91% | 1.07 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.16% | 4.67% | 7.24% | 19.27% | 2.54% | 17.79% | -2.08% | 61.11% | 0.00% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.21% | 5.59% | 15.31% | 33.21% | 3.46% | 26.73% | -4.50% | 66.67% | -1.75% | 1.15 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.42% | -3.81% | -16.50% | -3.13% | -5.94% | 18.36% | -8.10% | 50.00% | -20.88% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.42% | 5.37% | -7.77% | -10.59% | 3.24% | 14.15% | -1.70% | 66.67% | -10.43% | 0.60 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 3.67% | -3.60% | -7.47% | 24.54% | -5.72% | 30.53% | -7.99% | 50.00% | -22.91% | 0.64 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 1.64% | -7.79% | 18.91% | 25.56% | -9.91% | 17.53% | -10.44% | 27.78% | -14.86% | -0.15 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | -4.38% | 6.08% | 55.90% | 113.73% | 3.95% | 65.90% | -11.45% | 55.56% | -9.66% | 2.25 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | 5.45% | -1.09% | -9.64% | -14.79% | -3.21% | 30.68% | -11.37% | 44.44% | -19.51% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | -0.59% | 2.11% | 21.25% | 45.22% | -0.01% | 45.43% | -7.81% | 55.56% | -8.98% | 1.85 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | 1.34% | 0.39% | 3.16% | 46.95% | -1.73% | 40.45% | -8.23% | 33.33% | -9.53% | 2.14 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | 4.98% | 7.25% | 29.04% | 23.02% | 5.13% | 25.63% | -3.34% | 50.00% | -1.41% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-06 | -0.10% | -10.16% | 11.71% | 48.57% | -12.29% | 44.86% | -11.42% | 38.89% | -22.17% | 1.75 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-06 | -0.41% | -10.50% | -7.65% | 51.94% | -12.62% | 34.65% | -13.43% | 38.89% | -20.08% | 1.68 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-06 | 0.92% | 3.85% | 10.03% | 18.03% | 1.73% | 12.97% | -1.83% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-06 | 1.58% | 25.10% | 31.84% | 89.52% | 22.98% | 24.56% | -1.93% | 77.78% | 0.00% | 1.04 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-06 | 1.08% | 8.31% | 13.70% | 22.40% | 6.19% | 17.60% | -3.08% | 77.78% | -0.81% | 0.82 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-06 | 4.87% | 9.37% | 9.08% | 34.89% | 7.25% | 25.93% | -3.00% | 72.22% | 0.00% | 1.01 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.99% | 0.52% | 6.74% | 26.10% | -1.60% | 10.46% | -3.08% | 61.11% | -1.90% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.32% | 3.27% | 6.32% | 22.61% | 1.15% | 16.91% | -2.28% | 44.44% | -1.61% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.78% | 2.38% | 8.45% | 10.34% | 0.26% | 17.48% | -4.42% | 55.56% | -5.06% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | -3.87% | 8.37% | 76.42% | 167.01% | 6.24% | 89.51% | -17.82% | 44.44% | -13.39% | 2.60 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.40% | 9.37% | 62.95% | 88.76% | 7.25% | 44.68% | -7.82% | 61.11% | -3.82% | 1.68 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.07% | 3.65% | 6.47% | 24.49% | 1.53% | 18.07% | -2.99% | 44.44% | -15.52% | 0.98 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.41% | 3.27% | 10.73% | 28.11% | 1.14% | 22.80% | -5.37% | 50.00% | -4.52% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.91% | 2.60% | -9.20% | 27.14% | 0.48% | 33.77% | -8.61% | 55.56% | -19.06% | 1.57 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.37% | 0.94% | 0.68% | 5.28% | -1.19% | 4.65% | -0.65% | 72.22% | -1.34% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | 0.14% | 0.83% | 1.48% | 6.23% | -1.29% | 2.13% | -0.21% | 61.11% | -0.17% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-06 | -0.07% | 1.42% | 2.20% | 9.16% | -0.71% | 5.63% | -0.49% | 50.00% | -0.07% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.39% | 0.67% | 0.68% | 1.86% | -1.46% | 2.97% | -0.39% | 55.56% | -1.10% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 6.51% | -8.87% | -23.88% | 67.44% | -10.99% | 52.23% | -18.42% | 50.00% | -46.87% | 1.65 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 1.64% | -0.63% | 1.53% | 18.58% | -2.75% | 28.84% | -8.42% | 55.56% | -6.80% | 1.22 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 3.89% | 4.32% | 6.58% | 10.21% | 2.19% | 14.79% | -1.52% | 50.00% | -4.14% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-06 | -2.55% | -21.55% | 52.31% | 38.78% | -23.68% | 37.42% | -23.59% | 33.33% | -31.78% | -0.97 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-06 | -0.18% | 1.07% | 4.27% | 8.55% | -1.05% | 5.23% | -0.74% | 50.00% | -0.74% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-06 | 0.18% | -0.61% | -1.79% | -2.04% | -2.74% | 5.56% | -2.19% | 55.56% | -4.68% | 0.12 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-06 | -0.12% | -1.26% | -3.51% | -10.91% | -3.38% | 5.31% | -1.74% | 22.22% | -10.32% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-06 | 5.68% | 5.80% | -31.13% | -41.92% | 3.68% | 40.83% | -11.79% | 44.44% | -49.33% | 1.79 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-06 | 10.70% | 14.15% | -44.69% | -30.48% | 12.03% | 60.90% | -14.68% | 44.44% | -62.97% | 2.95 | pass |
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.
Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical price-context table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and price-context table order as context, not recommendation signals.
Price-history discipline: trailing returns are descriptive data, not forecasts. Use price history as one input, not as a standalone reason to allocate to an option. When recent performance matters to a holding, compare it with the briefing's catalysts, macro context, valuation or fundamental facts if supplied, volatility, drawdown, and reversal risk before the exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- If a holding rationale cites momentum, recent returns, or trailing performance, do not present price history alone as independent evidence. Mention any independent support present in the briefing, or state that support is limited, and include the relevant reversal or positioning risk in key_risks.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-06-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-06'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-07T07:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-06'
exit_date: '2026-07-13'
created_at: '2026-07-07T01:37:16.205938+00:00'
notes: 'Post-close July 6, 2026 one-week portfolio round. Fable 5 is included in the official provider run per operator instruction. The one-week exit snapshot uses the July 13, 2026 close.'Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench July 6, 2026 Weekly Briefing
Data status: facts below use public information available through 2026-07-07T01:56:00Z. Equity index closes are for Monday, July 6, 2026. Mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative context is generated separately and follows this briefing in the model input. Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Snapshot
- On Monday, July 6, 2026, the S&P 500 closed at 7,537.43, up 0.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,055.91, up 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,121.16, up 1.1%. The Russell 2000 closed at 3,009.54, up 0.4%.
- Year to date through July 6, the S&P 500 was up 10.1%, the Dow was up 10.4%, the Nasdaq was up 12.4%, and the Russell 2000 was up 21.3%.
- AP reported that the S&P 500 moved within 1% of its all-time high, while most stocks in the index declined.
- VIX was listed at 15.57 on July 6, down 0.58 points or 3.59%, with previous close 16.15.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was reported at 4.47%, down from 4.49% late Thursday.
- Brent crude was reported near $71.99 per barrel. MarketWatch reported WTI August crude at $68.28 and Brent September crude at $71.65 after an OPEC+ production decision.
## Labor, Inflation, And Policy
- June 2026 nonfarm payroll employment changed little at +57,000. The unemployment rate was 4.2%. Labor force participation decreased to 61.5%, and the employment-population ratio was 59.0%.
- June average hourly earnings rose 0.3% month over month and 3.5% year over year. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.3 hours.
- April payroll growth was revised from +179,000 to +148,000, and May was revised from +172,000 to +129,000. The combined revision was -74,000.
- May personal income rose 0.7%, disposable personal income rose 0.7%, PCE rose 0.7%, and real PCE rose 0.3%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- May PCE prices rose 0.4% month over month and 4.1% year over year. Core PCE prices rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year.
- On June 17, 2026, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75% by a 12-0 vote. The FOMC statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal.
## Business Activity And Supply Chains
- June 2026 ISM Services PMI was 54.0%, down 0.5 percentage point from May. Business Activity was 55.4%, New Orders was 55.1%, Employment was 51.2%, Supplier Deliveries was 54.4%, and Prices was 67.7%.
- The ISM Services Employment Index expanded for the first time in four months, rising 3.3 percentage points from May's 47.9% to 51.2%.
- The ISM Services Prices Index decreased to 67.7%, 3.6 percentage points below May.
- June 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI was 53.3%, down 0.7 percentage point from May. New Orders were 56.0%, Production was 52.2%, Employment was 49.7%, Supplier Deliveries were 57.4%, and Prices were 73.0%.
- ISM Services listed computers and related items, electronic components, memory components, software licensing, steel products, switchgear, transformers, and wire and cable among commodities in short supply.
## Company And Sector Datapoints
- AP reported Broadcom rose 3.7% after announcing long-term agreements to provide silicon products to Apple.
- AP reported TeraWulf rose 4.9% after announcing a 20-year data center deal with Anthropic valued at $19 billion.
- AP reported SK Hynix said it plans to raise $28 billion through a U.S. stock offering.
- Tesla reported Q2 2026 production of 451,758 vehicles, deliveries of 480,126 vehicles, and energy storage deployments of 13.5 GWh.
- TSMC's Q2 2026 page listed guidance of $39.0 billion to $40.2 billion in net revenue, 65.5% to 67.5% gross margin, and 56.5% to 58.5% operating margin.
## Weekly Calendar
- The Federal Reserve calendar lists FOMC minutes for the June 16-17 meeting on Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 2:00 p.m.
- The Federal Reserve calendar lists Consumer Credit for Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 3:00 p.m.
- TSMC listed Monthly Sales - June 2026 for Friday, July 10, 2026.
## Round Timing
- CB-2026-07-06-1W uses July 6, 2026 as the entry-date close and July 13, 2026 as the exit-date close.Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md
# Full-Universe Price, Risk, And Benchmark Context
This table is mechanically calculated from adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
Price-history note: trailing returns are descriptive context, not forecasts. Treat recent gains or losses as one input alongside catalysts, macro context, volatility, drawdown, benchmark-relative risk, and any valuation or fundamental facts supplied in the briefing.
Benchmark-relative values are asset return minus SPY return over the same window. Beta and correlation use available one-year daily adjusted-close returns.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-07-06
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | return_vs_sp500_30d | volatility_30d | max_drawdown_30d | up_day_share_30d | distance_from_52w_high | beta_to_sp500_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-07-06 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -2.12% | 0.00% | 0.00% | | | 0.00 | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-07-06 | 0.06% | 0.27% | 1.45% | 3.50% | -1.85% | 0.25% | -0.01% | 72.22% | -0.01% | -0.00 | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-07-06 | 1.39% | 2.12% | 9.17% | 21.47% | 0.00% | 16.57% | -3.17% | 44.44% | -0.84% | 1.00 | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-07-06 | 1.24% | 2.58% | 9.58% | 22.07% | 0.45% | 15.78% | -2.49% | 44.44% | -0.43% | 1.01 | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | -0.17% | 2.63% | 16.22% | 30.58% | 0.51% | 31.71% | -4.93% | 44.44% | -3.02% | 1.37 | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-07-06 | 0.84% | 0.34% | 3.60% | 15.31% | -1.78% | 23.63% | -5.03% | 44.44% | -4.40% | 1.24 | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-07-06 | 1.85% | 4.91% | 14.96% | 27.29% | 2.78% | 14.28% | -1.39% | 61.11% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-07-06 | -0.14% | 3.60% | 11.68% | 21.36% | 1.47% | 15.55% | -1.55% | 61.11% | -0.89% | 1.00 | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-07-06 | -0.02% | 6.38% | 17.21% | 35.38% | 4.25% | 16.58% | -1.62% | 61.11% | -0.52% | 1.27 | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-07-06 | 0.21% | 6.25% | 18.73% | 36.70% | 4.13% | 12.81% | -1.77% | 55.56% | 0.00% | 1.03 | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.97% | 0.61% | 16.67% | 22.21% | -1.51% | 12.50% | -2.93% | 50.00% | -1.02% | 0.30 | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.77% | 3.87% | 7.51% | 6.40% | 1.75% | 14.47% | -1.89% | 61.11% | -0.91% | 0.06 | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-07-06 | -4.25% | 5.09% | 24.89% | 35.35% | 2.96% | 47.53% | -8.31% | 55.56% | -6.81% | 1.49 | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -0.99% | 1.94% | 25.48% | 43.63% | -0.19% | 39.76% | -6.02% | 50.00% | -7.28% | 1.66 | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 2.16% | -1.05% | -5.52% | 3.29% | -3.17% | 19.25% | -5.76% | 55.56% | -7.69% | 0.69 | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 0.76% | 2.95% | -2.14% | 7.52% | 0.82% | 23.51% | -4.21% | 61.11% | -4.85% | 1.18 | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -0.32% | 1.49% | 9.93% | 5.17% | -0.63% | 18.70% | -3.58% | 50.00% | -5.39% | -0.03 | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 0.76% | 6.32% | 3.32% | 21.62% | 4.19% | 20.84% | -3.34% | 61.11% | -1.09% | 0.36 | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 4.50% | 7.72% | 0.40% | 7.18% | 5.59% | 13.46% | -1.44% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 0.66 | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 1.53% | 6.80% | 15.13% | 25.79% | 4.67% | 24.76% | -3.38% | 72.22% | 0.00% | 0.97 | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -0.84% | -7.21% | 18.02% | 25.90% | -9.33% | 20.94% | -8.81% | 33.33% | -14.46% | -0.16 | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | 2.61% | 3.05% | 10.33% | 15.85% | 0.93% | 22.85% | -3.55% | 61.11% | -2.26% | 0.77 | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -1.56% | 2.79% | 6.99% | 13.79% | 0.67% | 15.83% | -3.10% | 72.22% | -3.82% | 0.18 | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-07-06 | -1.40% | -0.05% | 10.51% | 9.61% | -2.17% | 19.18% | -3.31% | 55.56% | -2.10% | 0.31 | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.60% | 0.93% | -0.62% | 2.93% | -1.19% | 5.46% | -0.76% | 66.67% | -2.65% | 0.08 | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -1.93% | 0.83% | -0.27% | 2.33% | -1.29% | 10.16% | -1.93% | 50.00% | -4.52% | 0.13 | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.32% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 2.43% | -1.85% | 4.56% | -0.78% | 61.11% | -1.66% | 0.07 | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-07-06 | -0.59% | 0.82% | 0.22% | 3.83% | -1.31% | 5.12% | -0.78% | 55.56% | -1.26% | 0.18 | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-07-06 | 0.29% | 1.02% | 1.18% | 4.84% | -1.10% | 3.38% | -0.39% | 44.44% | -0.09% | 0.23 | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.38% | 0.84% | 0.28% | 3.88% | -1.29% | 4.08% | -0.54% | 66.67% | -1.41% | 0.10 | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.37% | 4.48% | 12.86% | 29.27% | 2.36% | 22.38% | -3.07% | 61.11% | -0.69% | 1.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.50% | 3.64% | 8.19% | 23.23% | 1.51% | 22.05% | -4.34% | 50.00% | -1.91% | 1.07 | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.16% | 4.67% | 7.24% | 19.27% | 2.54% | 17.79% | -2.08% | 61.11% | 0.00% | 0.93 | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.21% | 5.59% | 15.31% | 33.21% | 3.46% | 26.73% | -4.50% | 66.67% | -1.75% | 1.15 | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.42% | -3.81% | -16.50% | -3.13% | -5.94% | 18.36% | -8.10% | 50.00% | -20.88% | 0.92 | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.42% | 5.37% | -7.77% | -10.59% | 3.24% | 14.15% | -1.70% | 66.67% | -10.43% | 0.60 | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 3.67% | -3.60% | -7.47% | 24.54% | -5.72% | 30.53% | -7.99% | 50.00% | -22.91% | 0.64 | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 1.64% | -7.79% | 18.91% | 25.56% | -9.91% | 17.53% | -10.44% | 27.78% | -14.86% | -0.15 | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | -4.38% | 6.08% | 55.90% | 113.73% | 3.95% | 65.90% | -11.45% | 55.56% | -9.66% | 2.25 | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | 5.45% | -1.09% | -9.64% | -14.79% | -3.21% | 30.68% | -11.37% | 44.44% | -19.51% | 1.18 | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | -0.59% | 2.11% | 21.25% | 45.22% | -0.01% | 45.43% | -7.81% | 55.56% | -8.98% | 1.85 | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | 1.34% | 0.39% | 3.16% | 46.95% | -1.73% | 40.45% | -8.23% | 33.33% | -9.53% | 2.14 | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-07-06 | 4.98% | 7.25% | 29.04% | 23.02% | 5.13% | 25.63% | -3.34% | 50.00% | -1.41% | 1.10 | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-07-06 | -0.10% | -10.16% | 11.71% | 48.57% | -12.29% | 44.86% | -11.42% | 38.89% | -22.17% | 1.75 | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-07-06 | -0.41% | -10.50% | -7.65% | 51.94% | -12.62% | 34.65% | -13.43% | 38.89% | -20.08% | 1.68 | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-07-06 | 0.92% | 3.85% | 10.03% | 18.03% | 1.73% | 12.97% | -1.83% | 66.67% | 0.00% | 0.74 | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-07-06 | 1.58% | 25.10% | 31.84% | 89.52% | 22.98% | 24.56% | -1.93% | 77.78% | 0.00% | 1.04 | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-07-06 | 1.08% | 8.31% | 13.70% | 22.40% | 6.19% | 17.60% | -3.08% | 77.78% | -0.81% | 0.82 | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-07-06 | 4.87% | 9.37% | 9.08% | 34.89% | 7.25% | 25.93% | -3.00% | 72.22% | 0.00% | 1.01 | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.99% | 0.52% | 6.74% | 26.10% | -1.60% | 10.46% | -3.08% | 61.11% | -1.90% | 0.78 | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 2.32% | 3.27% | 6.32% | 22.61% | 1.15% | 16.91% | -2.28% | 44.44% | -1.61% | 0.73 | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.78% | 2.38% | 8.45% | 10.34% | 0.26% | 17.48% | -4.42% | 55.56% | -5.06% | 0.93 | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | -3.87% | 8.37% | 76.42% | 167.01% | 6.24% | 89.51% | -17.82% | 44.44% | -13.39% | 2.60 | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.40% | 9.37% | 62.95% | 88.76% | 7.25% | 44.68% | -7.82% | 61.11% | -3.82% | 1.68 | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.07% | 3.65% | 6.47% | 24.49% | 1.53% | 18.07% | -2.99% | 44.44% | -15.52% | 0.98 | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 0.41% | 3.27% | 10.73% | 28.11% | 1.14% | 22.80% | -5.37% | 50.00% | -4.52% | 0.92 | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-07-06 | 1.91% | 2.60% | -9.20% | 27.14% | 0.48% | 33.77% | -8.61% | 55.56% | -19.06% | 1.57 | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.37% | 0.94% | 0.68% | 5.28% | -1.19% | 4.65% | -0.65% | 72.22% | -1.34% | 0.11 | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | 0.14% | 0.83% | 1.48% | 6.23% | -1.29% | 2.13% | -0.21% | 61.11% | -0.17% | 0.07 | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-07-06 | -0.07% | 1.42% | 2.20% | 9.16% | -0.71% | 5.63% | -0.49% | 50.00% | -0.07% | 0.29 | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-07-06 | -0.39% | 0.67% | 0.68% | 1.86% | -1.46% | 2.97% | -0.39% | 55.56% | -1.10% | 0.11 | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 6.51% | -8.87% | -23.88% | 67.44% | -10.99% | 52.23% | -18.42% | 50.00% | -46.87% | 1.65 | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 1.64% | -0.63% | 1.53% | 18.58% | -2.75% | 28.84% | -8.42% | 55.56% | -6.80% | 1.22 | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-07-06 | 3.89% | 4.32% | 6.58% | 10.21% | 2.19% | 14.79% | -1.52% | 50.00% | -4.14% | 0.07 | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-07-06 | -2.55% | -21.55% | 52.31% | 38.78% | -23.68% | 37.42% | -23.59% | 33.33% | -31.78% | -0.97 | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-07-06 | -0.18% | 1.07% | 4.27% | 8.55% | -1.05% | 5.23% | -0.74% | 50.00% | -0.74% | -0.13 | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-07-06 | 0.18% | -0.61% | -1.79% | -2.04% | -2.74% | 5.56% | -2.19% | 55.56% | -4.68% | 0.12 | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-07-06 | -0.12% | -1.26% | -3.51% | -10.91% | -3.38% | 5.31% | -1.74% | 22.22% | -10.32% | 0.07 | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-06 | 5.68% | 5.80% | -31.13% | -41.92% | 3.68% | 40.83% | -11.79% | 44.44% | -49.33% | 1.79 | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-07-06 | 10.70% | 14.15% | -44.69% | -30.48% | 12.03% | 60.90% | -14.68% | 44.44% | -62.97% | 2.95 | pass |Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."Round Hashes hashes.json
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}Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 6 model calls
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-06-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF Parsed provider responses Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded
from the public site.
Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5
anthropic-claude-fable-5
5 holdings Financials Sector (XLF)
Financials Sector (XLF) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 20% Semiconductors (SMH) 20% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 15%
- Confidence
- 0.50
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Tilt toward strong-breadth cyclical/value sectors (financials, defense, value) benefiting from cooling labor data and potential dovish FOMC minutes, plus a semiconductor position keyed to TSMC's June sales release and fresh AI silicon deal news.
Overweight financials, biotech, aerospace-defense, and value on rate-cut-friendly labor data and strong breadth, with semis for AI catalysts including TSMC monthly sales Friday.
Portfolio
- Financials Sector (XLF): 25% - Strong breadth (67% up days, low drawdown) with soft payrolls raising rate-cut odds ahead of FOMC minutes; low volatility relative to alpha generated recently, supported by steady economy and upcoming bank earnings anticipation.
- Biotechnology (XBI): 20% - Broad-based rally with 78% up days, at 52-week high, low 30d drawdown; weak jobs data supports lower rates which benefits long-duration biotech financing conditions beyond just momentum.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 20% - Persistent geopolitical demand backdrop, at 52-week high with strong breadth (72% up days) and moderate volatility; defense budgets provide fundamental support independent of price trend.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 20% - Broadcom-Apple silicon deal, Anthropic data-center deal, TSMC strong guidance and June sales report Friday July 10 are concrete near-term catalysts; recent 7d pullback offers entry after AI-driven strength.
- US Large-Cap Value (IWD): 15% - Rotation into value evident (+2.8% vs SPY 30d), at 52-week high with low volatility; soft labor data favoring rate-sensitive value sectors like financials embedded in IWD.
Key Risks
- Hawkish FOMC minutes or hot inflation signals (ISM prices at 67-73) could reprice rate-cut expectations, hurting rate-sensitive financials and biotech.
- Semiconductor volatility is very high (66% 30d vol, -4.4% 7d); a TSMC sales miss or AI sentiment reversal could sharply drag SMH.
- Biotech and defense gains partly rest on recent price strength; momentum reversal or profit-taking near 52-week highs could cause underperformance.
- Further labor-market deterioration could shift narrative from rate-cut optimism to growth fears, hitting cyclical financials and value.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC minutes or hot inflation signals (ISM prices at 67-73) could reprice rate-cut expectations, hurting rate-sensitive financials and biotech.",
"Semiconductor volatility is very high (66% 30d vol, -4.4% 7d); a TSMC sales miss or AI sentiment reversal could sharply drag SMH.",
"Biotech and defense gains partly rest on recent price strength; momentum reversal or profit-taking near 52-week highs could cause underperformance.",
"Further labor-market deterioration could shift narrative from rate-cut optimism to growth fears, hitting cyclical financials and value."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong breadth (67% up days, low drawdown) with soft payrolls raising rate-cut odds ahead of FOMC minutes; low volatility relative to alpha generated recently, supported by steady economy and upcoming bank earnings anticipation."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Broad-based rally with 78% up days, at 52-week high, low 30d drawdown; weak jobs data supports lower rates which benefits long-duration biotech financing conditions beyond just momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Persistent geopolitical demand backdrop, at 52-week high with strong breadth (72% up days) and moderate volatility; defense budgets provide fundamental support independent of price trend."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Broadcom-Apple silicon deal, Anthropic data-center deal, TSMC strong guidance and June sales report Friday July 10 are concrete near-term catalysts; recent 7d pullback offers entry after AI-driven strength."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Rotation into value evident (+2.8% vs SPY 30d), at 52-week high with low volatility; soft labor data favoring rate-sensitive value sectors like financials embedded in IWD."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward strong-breadth cyclical/value sectors (financials, defense, value) benefiting from cooling labor data and potential dovish FOMC minutes, plus a semiconductor position keyed to TSMC's June sales release and fresh AI silicon deal news.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight financials, biotech, aerospace-defense, and value on rate-cut-friendly labor data and strong breadth, with semis for AI catalysts including TSMC monthly sales Friday.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22027,
"latency_seconds": 17.62258666602429,
"output_tokens": 1020,
"total_tokens": 23047
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
5 holdings Financials Sector (XLF)
Financials Sector (XLF) 30% Industrials Sector (XLI) 20% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 15% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 20%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Tilt toward cyclical value (financials, industrials, defense) benefiting from soft-landing narrative post-weak payrolls and dovish FOMC minutes potential, balanced with healthcare defensiveness and equal-weight broadening exposure.
Overweight financials/industrials/defense on catalyst mix (soft payrolls, ISM services employment recovery, FOMC minutes) with healthcare and RSP as ballast against mega-cap tech reversal risk highlighted by MTUM/SMH weekly drawdowns.
Portfolio
- Financials Sector (XLF): 30% - Strongest sector momentum with soft payrolls supporting rate-cut hopes; ISM services employment turned positive, benign backdrop for banks.
- Industrials Sector (XLI): 20% - ISM Manufacturing still expansionary, broad sector strength, high up-day share.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - Sustained defense spending and strong recent trend with high up-day share into a quiet catalyst week.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 15% - Defensive with improving 30d relative performance; low beta cushions if mega-cap tech wobbles.
- Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 20% - AP noted most stocks declined despite index near ATH; equal-weight captures broadening participation.
Key Risks
- FOMC minutes read hawkish, hitting rate-sensitive financials and cyclicals
- Mega-cap tech rebound leaves equal-weight/value tilt lagging SPY benchmark
- Weaker payroll revisions signal deeper slowdown, hurting cyclicals
- Oil/commodity weakness spills into risk sentiment
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes read hawkish, hitting rate-sensitive financials and cyclicals",
"Mega-cap tech rebound leaves equal-weight/value tilt lagging SPY benchmark",
"Weaker payroll revisions signal deeper slowdown, hurting cyclicals",
"Oil/commodity weakness spills into risk sentiment"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strongest sector momentum with soft payrolls supporting rate-cut hopes; ISM services employment turned positive, benign backdrop for banks."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "ISM Manufacturing still expansionary, broad sector strength, high up-day share."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Sustained defense spending and strong recent trend with high up-day share into a quiet catalyst week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive with improving 30d relative performance; low beta cushions if mega-cap tech wobbles."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "AP noted most stocks declined despite index near ATH; equal-weight captures broadening participation."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward cyclical value (financials, industrials, defense) benefiting from soft-landing narrative post-weak payrolls and dovish FOMC minutes potential, balanced with healthcare defensiveness and equal-weight broadening exposure.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight financials/industrials/defense on catalyst mix (soft payrolls, ISM services employment recovery, FOMC minutes) with healthcare and RSP as ballast against mega-cap tech reversal risk highlighted by MTUM/SMH weekly drawdowns.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22036,
"latency_seconds": 14.079736832994968,
"output_tokens": 749,
"total_tokens": 22785
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
5 holdings Financials Sector (XLF)
Financials Sector (XLF) 30% Industrials Sector (XLI) 25% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 20% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Tilt toward broadening cyclical leadership (financials, industrials, defense) at fresh highs with strong breadth, balanced by defensive healthcare and an SPY core anchor to control benchmark-relative risk through the FOMC minutes catalyst.
Overweight cyclicals showing broad participation and 52w highs, with healthcare and SPY ballast for a one-week close-to-close window.
Portfolio
- Financials Sector (XLF): 30% - Strong recent breadth with +4.5% 7d and +7.7% 30d, at 52w high; steepening curve context and healthy banking sector momentum with supporting sector rotation.
- Industrials Sector (XLI): 25% - At 52w high with broad participation (72% up days), solid ISM manufacturing/production, and cyclical strength; beta near 1 offers benchmark-plus without extreme volatility.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 20% - Leading industry with +4.87% 7d, at 52w high, geopolitical tailwinds and defense budget support; positive relative strength beyond pure momentum.
- Healthcare Sector (XLV): 15% - Defensive-cyclical mix with +6.3% 30d, at 52w high territory, low beta (0.36) cushions if market wobbles into FOMC minutes.
- S&P 500 (SPY): 10% - Core benchmark anchor to limit tracking error against the scoring benchmark over the one-week window.
Key Risks
- FOMC minutes on July 8 could signal hawkish stance, pressuring rate-sensitive financials and cyclicals
- Recent sector strength may reverse; momentum-heavy positioning faces rotation risk into defensives
- Narrow index breadth (most stocks declining while index near highs) suggests fragile leadership
- Financials at 52w high have limited cushion if credit or curve dynamics disappoint
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes on July 8 could signal hawkish stance, pressuring rate-sensitive financials and cyclicals",
"Recent sector strength may reverse; momentum-heavy positioning faces rotation risk into defensives",
"Narrow index breadth (most stocks declining while index near highs) suggests fragile leadership",
"Financials at 52w high have limited cushion if credit or curve dynamics disappoint"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong recent breadth with +4.5% 7d and +7.7% 30d, at 52w high; steepening curve context and healthy banking sector momentum with supporting sector rotation."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "At 52w high with broad participation (72% up days), solid ISM manufacturing/production, and cyclical strength; beta near 1 offers benchmark-plus without extreme volatility."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Leading industry with +4.87% 7d, at 52w high, geopolitical tailwinds and defense budget support; positive relative strength beyond pure momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive-cyclical mix with +6.3% 30d, at 52w high territory, low beta (0.36) cushions if market wobbles into FOMC minutes."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark anchor to limit tracking error against the scoring benchmark over the one-week window."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward broadening cyclical leadership (financials, industrials, defense) at fresh highs with strong breadth, balanced by defensive healthcare and an SPY core anchor to control benchmark-relative risk through the FOMC minutes catalyst.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight cyclicals showing broad participation and 52w highs, with healthcare and SPY ballast for a one-week close-to-close window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 22031,
"latency_seconds": 12.307645548018627,
"output_tokens": 794,
"total_tokens": 22825
}
} Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
4 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) 20% Broad AI Technology (AIQ) 20% Technology Sector (XLK) 20%
- Confidence
- 0.65
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio is heavily tilted toward semiconductors, AI, and technology to capitalize on specific positive company catalysts including TSMC's strong guidance, Tesla's delivery beat, and major AI infrastructure deals. These sector-specific drivers are expected to outweigh the broader market's sluggishness indicated by declining ISM PMIs.
Overweighting semiconductors and AI-related technology based on strong corporate catalysts from TSMC, Tesla, Broadcom, and TeraWulf.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Supported by strong TSMC guidance, Broadcom's new Apple agreement, and SK Hynix's capital raise plans.
- Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ): 20% - Benefits from Tesla's strong Q2 vehicle delivery and energy storage deployment numbers.
- Broad AI Technology (AIQ): 20% - Supported by ongoing AI infrastructure build-out, highlighted by TeraWulf's $19 billion data center deal with Anthropic.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 20% - Broad technology exposure captures the positive momentum from mega-cap AI and hardware catalysts.
Key Risks
- A sharp reversal in semiconductor and AI stocks given their high volatility and recent strong performance.
- Hawkish surprises in the upcoming FOMC minutes could disproportionately hurt high-duration growth and tech equities.
- Broader market weakness driven by declining ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs could drag down sector-specific momentum.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.65,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sharp reversal in semiconductor and AI stocks given their high volatility and recent strong performance.",
"Hawkish surprises in the upcoming FOMC minutes could disproportionately hurt high-duration growth and tech equities.",
"Broader market weakness driven by declining ISM Services and Manufacturing PMIs could drag down sector-specific momentum."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Supported by strong TSMC guidance, Broadcom's new Apple agreement, and SK Hynix's capital raise plans."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "Benefits from Tesla's strong Q2 vehicle delivery and energy storage deployment numbers."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BROAD_AI_TECH",
"rationale": "Supported by ongoing AI infrastructure build-out, highlighted by TeraWulf's $19 billion data center deal with Anthropic."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad technology exposure captures the positive momentum from mega-cap AI and hardware catalysts."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward semiconductors, AI, and technology to capitalize on specific positive company catalysts including TSMC's strong guidance, Tesla's delivery beat, and major AI infrastructure deals. These sector-specific drivers are expected to outweigh the broader market's sluggishness indicated by declining ISM PMIs.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweighting semiconductors and AI-related technology based on strong corporate catalysts from TSMC, Tesla, Broadcom, and TeraWulf.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15772,
"latency_seconds": 13.090475285076536,
"output_tokens": 508,
"reasoning_tokens": 532,
"total_tokens": 16812
}
} OpenAI
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5
5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 25% Biotechnology (XBI) 20% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 15% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 10%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio emphasizes high-beta areas with plausible one-week catalysts, especially semiconductor and Taiwan exposure ahead of TSMC monthly sales and amid AI chip supply-chain news. Smaller allocations to biotech, aerospace-defense, and cybersecurity seek additional alpha from strong breadth and risk appetite while limiting reliance on any single theme.
I overweight semiconductor-linked assets because the briefing contains concrete near-term company and supply-chain catalysts before the exit date. The remaining positions target areas with strong relative performance and plausible continuation, while acknowledging reversal risk after sharp recent gains.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - Direct exposure to the strongest near-term briefing catalysts: TSMC's July 10 monthly sales release, high Q2 guidance, AI/data-center chip demand, Broadcom's Apple silicon agreements, and reported shortages in electronic and memory components; recent weakness creates rebound potential but volatility is high.
- Taiwan Equities (EWT): 25% - Taiwan equities provide concentrated semiconductor supply-chain exposure with TSMC-specific catalyst support before the exit close, while recent 30-day strength is supported by supplied chip demand and margin guidance rather than price action alone.
- Biotechnology (XBI): 20% - Biotech has strong recent breadth and momentum near a 52-week high with moderate market beta, offering alpha potential in a risk-on week; independent catalyst support in the briefing is limited, so this is sized below the semiconductor complex.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - Aerospace and defense shows strong short-term relative strength and broad up-day participation, with industrials also near highs; sector demand and geopolitical/defense-budget priors can support continued inflows over a short horizon.
- Cybersecurity (CIBR): 10% - Cybersecurity combines recent relative strength with a structural demand theme tied to enterprise technology spending, and software-related shortages in the briefing are consistent with firm IT demand, though direct catalyst support is limited.
Key Risks
- TSMC monthly sales or commentary disappoints, causing semiconductor and Taiwan exposures to underperform sharply.
- FOMC minutes emphasize elevated inflation and reduce rate-cut expectations, pressuring high-beta technology and biotech holdings.
- Recent momentum in biotech, cybersecurity, and aerospace-defense reverses because independent one-week catalysts are limited outside semiconductors.
- A broad risk-off move or profit-taking near S&P 500 highs disproportionately hurts the portfolio's high-beta and thematic exposures.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"TSMC monthly sales or commentary disappoints, causing semiconductor and Taiwan exposures to underperform sharply.",
"FOMC minutes emphasize elevated inflation and reduce rate-cut expectations, pressuring high-beta technology and biotech holdings.",
"Recent momentum in biotech, cybersecurity, and aerospace-defense reverses because independent one-week catalysts are limited outside semiconductors.",
"A broad risk-off move or profit-taking near S&P 500 highs disproportionately hurts the portfolio's high-beta and thematic exposures."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Direct exposure to the strongest near-term briefing catalysts: TSMC's July 10 monthly sales release, high Q2 guidance, AI/data-center chip demand, Broadcom's Apple silicon agreements, and reported shortages in electronic and memory components; recent weakness creates rebound potential but volatility is high."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Taiwan equities provide concentrated semiconductor supply-chain exposure with TSMC-specific catalyst support before the exit close, while recent 30-day strength is supported by supplied chip demand and margin guidance rather than price action alone."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "Biotech has strong recent breadth and momentum near a 52-week high with moderate market beta, offering alpha potential in a risk-on week; independent catalyst support in the briefing is limited, so this is sized below the semiconductor complex."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Aerospace and defense shows strong short-term relative strength and broad up-day participation, with industrials also near highs; sector demand and geopolitical/defense-budget priors can support continued inflows over a short horizon."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Cybersecurity combines recent relative strength with a structural demand theme tied to enterprise technology spending, and software-related shortages in the briefing are consistent with firm IT demand, though direct catalyst support is limited."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes high-beta areas with plausible one-week catalysts, especially semiconductor and Taiwan exposure ahead of TSMC monthly sales and amid AI chip supply-chain news. Smaller allocations to biotech, aerospace-defense, and cybersecurity seek additional alpha from strong breadth and risk appetite while limiting reliance on any single theme.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "I overweight semiconductor-linked assets because the briefing contains concrete near-term company and supply-chain catalysts before the exit date. The remaining positions target areas with strong relative performance and plausible continuation, while acknowledging reversal risk after sharp recent gains.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14238,
"latency_seconds": 23.89851725799963,
"output_tokens": 960,
"reasoning_tokens": 379,
"total_tokens": 15198
}
} xAI
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
4 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 (SPY) 40% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% Technology Sector (XLK) 20% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 20%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Mix of broad market and three sectors with near-term catalysts or policy sensitivity to optimize for the one-week window after soft jobs data.
Weak June payrolls and downward revisions create scope for policy easing signals in FOMC minutes, while TSMC sales and select tech deals provide discrete mid-week events; allocation balances broad beta with targeted sector exposure.
Portfolio
- S&P 500 (SPY): 40% - Broad large-cap exposure to capture any risk-on response to FOMC minutes and TSMC sales data within the window.
- Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Sector positioned for potential rate policy signals and domestic growth sensitivity amid recent labor data.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 20% - Exposure to semiconductor and AI supply-chain names with company-specific agreements and TSMC guidance due mid-week.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 20% - Defensive industrial exposure with stable budget visibility and limited sensitivity to the weak payroll print.
Key Risks
- FOMC minutes could reinforce higher-for-longer stance given 4.1% core PCE
- Further downside revisions or weak follow-through data could trigger growth fears
- Tech names face reversal risk after recent concentration-driven moves
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes could reinforce higher-for-longer stance given 4.1% core PCE",
"Further downside revisions or weak follow-through data could trigger growth fears",
"Tech names face reversal risk after recent concentration-driven moves"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad large-cap exposure to capture any risk-on response to FOMC minutes and TSMC sales data within the window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Sector positioned for potential rate policy signals and domestic growth sensitivity amid recent labor data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Exposure to semiconductor and AI supply-chain names with company-specific agreements and TSMC guidance due mid-week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Defensive industrial exposure with stable budget visibility and limited sensitivity to the weak payroll print."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of broad market and three sectors with near-term catalysts or policy sensitivity to optimize for the one-week window after soft jobs data.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak June payrolls and downward revisions create scope for policy easing signals in FOMC minutes, while TSMC sales and select tech deals provide discrete mid-week events; allocation balances broad beta with targeted sector exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-06-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14372,
"latency_seconds": 9.29831239907071,
"output_tokens": 399,
"reasoning_tokens": 663,
"total_tokens": 15434
}
} Public model run
Model Portfolios
This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)25%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)20%Semiconductors (SMH)20%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)15% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Industrials Sector (XLI)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Financials Sector (XLF)30%Industrials Sector (XLI)25%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%S&P 500 (SPY)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Semiconductors (SMH)40%Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)20%Broad AI Technology (AIQ)20%Technology Sector (XLK)20% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)30%Taiwan Equities (EWT)25%Biotechnology (XBI)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)15%Cybersecurity (CIBR)10% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Technology Sector (XLK)20%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round |
Pricing Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-06 | 250.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-06 | 94.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-06 | 27.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-06 | 28.33 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-06 | 130.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-06 | 160.81 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-06 | 36.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-06 | 34.92 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-06 | 63.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-06 | 16.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-06 | 58.06 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-06 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-06 | 52.02 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-06 | 110.21 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-06 | 118.01 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-06 | 84.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-06 | 37.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-06 | 104.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-06 | 92.91 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-06 | 71.89 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-06 | 96.35 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-06 | 60.07 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-06 | 53.13 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-06 | 215.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-06 | 13.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-06 | 105.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-06 | 89.97 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-06 | 56.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-06 | 78.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-06 | 161.96 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-06 | 79.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-06 | 49.88 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-06 | 185.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-06 | 94.18 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-06 | 48.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-06 | 108.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-06 | 95.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-06 | 56.59 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-06 | 85.45 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-06 | 51.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-06 | 106.08 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-06 | 76.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-06 | 107.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-06 | 722.82 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-06 | 44.29 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-06 | 75.56 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-06 | 751.28 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-06 | 604.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-06 | 91.43 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-06 | 56.11 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-06 | 94.79 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-06 | 57.54 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-06 | 64.63 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-06 | 189.85 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-06 | 107.27 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-06 | 183.57 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-06 | 371.67 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-06 | 108.49 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-06 | 47.22 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-06 | 98.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-06 | 32.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-06 | 28.32 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-06 | 123.00 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-06 | 247.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-06 | 76.17 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-06 | 76.42 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-06 | 321.71 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-06 | 298.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-06 | 221.74 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-06 | 45.30 | Yahoo adjusted close |
Audit Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 614ba1d53934...f69419f2 |
| manifest.yaml | cfa925eeb9e3...e6c1d697 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | 529caec62ef1...93ecfdf4 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | 175081d6bc60...c7135213 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | a1452a84ba42...8337f8c6 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 66320ebc013a...24373e4c |