Round audit packet

CB-2026-06-15-1W

Name: CB-2026-06-15-1W CapitalBench audit dataset
Published: 2026-06-15

Weekly round one week

One-week market allocation evaluation round.

Test CB-2026-06-15-1W pending

Portfolios Frozen By 2026-06-16

Start Date 2026-06-15

End Date 2026-06-22

Run ID official-20260615-no-fable

1 Inputs saved
7 public audit hashes are available.
2 Portfolios collected
5 valid model portfolios.
3 Start priced
70 starting-price rows published.
4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-06-22 prices are available.

Round state

Score Pending

This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.

Pending

Model portfolios

5 valid portfolios

No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.

Asset list

70 saved choices

v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.

Scoring

Ending prices pending

Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.

Input audit hashes

7 artifacts published.

Public run selected

official-20260615-no-fable

Model-facing prompt available

41,697 shared prompt characters.

Ending prices pending

Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.

Model consensus

Where Models Concentrated In This Round

Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.

Score pending

Top exposure 35%

Semiconductors (SMH)

Top 3 exposures 72%

Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.

Effective spread 4.6 assets

Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.

Average allocation across 5 model portfolios Assets

Semiconductors (SMH) 5 models: Gemini 3.1 Pro 40% / Claude Opus 4.7 35% / Claude Opus 4.8 35% / GPT-5.5 35% / +1 more

35%

Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 4 models: Gemini 3.1 Pro 30% / Claude Opus 4.7 25% / Claude Opus 4.8 25% / Grok 4.3 25%

21%

US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 5 models: Claude Opus 4.8 20% / Grok 4.3 20% / Claude Opus 4.7 15% / GPT-5.5 15% / +1 more

16%

South Korea Equities (EWY) 4 models: Gemini 3.1 Pro 20% / GPT-5.5 20% / Claude Opus 4.7 15% / Claude Opus 4.8 10%

13%

Biotechnology (XBI) 3 models: Claude Opus 4.7 10% / GPT-5.5 10% / Grok 4.3 10%

Taiwan Equities (EWT) 1 model: GPT-5.5 20%

Technology Sector (XLK) 1 model: Grok 4.3 15%

Financials Sector (XLF) 1 model: Claude Opus 4.8 10%

Interim tracking

Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns

Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.

Live chart pending

At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.

Saved model-facing context

Prompt And Input Packet

The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.

Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 41,697 characters

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.

The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.

Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

## Round Metadata

- Round ID: CB-2026-06-15-1W
- Decision date: 2026-06-15
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-06-16T00:10:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-06-16T02:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-06-15
- Exit date: 2026-06-22
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, June 15, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, June 22, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.

## Briefing

# CapitalBench Briefing

## 1. Neutrality And Bias-Control Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe trailing-return table follows this briefing in the model input.

## 2. Research And Evaluation Setup

| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| research cutoff | 2026-06-16T00:10:00Z |
| decision deadline | 2026-06-16T02:30:00Z |
| weekly round | CB-2026-06-15-1W |
| weekly entry and exit dates | 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-22 |
| monthly round | CB-2026-06-15-1M |
| monthly entry and exit dates | 2026-06-15 to 2026-07-15 |
| model access rule | no tool use and no web access |
| shared-input rule | competing models receive the same frozen factual briefing, fixed ETF option universe, and mechanical return table |

## 3. Latest Macro Datapoints

| indicator | latest value | period | date | publisher | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CPI headline | +0.5% MoM, +4.2% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| CPI core | +0.2% MoM, +2.9% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| CPI energy | +3.9% MoM, +23.5% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| CPI shelter | +0.3% MoM, +3.4% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| PPI final demand | +1.1% MoM, +6.5% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS | observed |
| Nonfarm payrolls | +172,000 | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Labor-force participation | 61.8% | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Average hourly earnings | +0.3% MoM, +3.4% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Initial jobless claims | 229,000 | week ended 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor | observed |
| Continuing jobless claims | 1,795,000 | week ended 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor | observed |
| JOLTS job openings | 7.6 million | Apr. 2026 | 2026-06-02 | BLS | observed |
| PCE price index | +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA | observed |
| Core PCE | +0.2% MoM, +3.3% YoY | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA | observed |
| Personal income / spending | 0.0% MoM / +0.5% MoM | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA | observed |
| Retail and food services sales | +0.5% MoM, +4.9% YoY | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census | observed |
| Industrial production | +0.1% MoM, +1.7% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-15 | Federal Reserve | observed |
| Manufacturing output | 0.0% MoM | May 2026 | 2026-06-15 | Federal Reserve | observed |
| Capacity utilization | 76.2% | May 2026 | 2026-06-15 | Federal Reserve | observed |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.0 | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM | observed |
| ISM Services PMI | 54.5 | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM | observed |
| University of Michigan sentiment | 48.9 preliminary | June 2026 | June preliminary | University of Michigan | observed |
| Michigan 1-year / long-run inflation expectations | 4.6% / 3.4% | June 2026 preliminary | June preliminary | University of Michigan | observed |
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence | 93.1 | May 2026 | 2026-05-26 | The Conference Board | observed |

## 4. Rates, Policy, Volatility, And Currency Datapoints

| indicator | latest value | period / observation | publisher | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Federal funds target range | 3.50%-3.75% | maintained at Apr. 28-29 FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | observed |
| Next FOMC meeting | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | scheduled | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| Effective federal funds rate | 3.62% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 3-month Treasury bill | 3.63% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 2-year Treasury | 4.09% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 5-year Treasury | 4.21% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.48% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 30-year Treasury | 4.97% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 5-year TIPS real yield | 1.82% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 10-year TIPS real yield | 2.17% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| VIX spot | 16.20 | 2026-06-15, displayed 8:15 PM ET | Cboe | observed |
| U.S. Dollar Index | about 99.65 | 2026-06-15 | public market-data pages | observed |

## 5. Housing Datapoints

| indicator | latest value | period | date | publisher | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Housing starts | 1,465,000 SAAR | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |
| Building permits | 1,442,000 SAAR | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |
| Existing-home sales | 4.17 million SAAR | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | NAR | observed |
| Existing-home median price | $429,300 | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | NAR | observed |
| Existing-home inventory | 4.5 months | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | NAR | observed |
| New-home sales | 622,000 SAAR | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |
| New-home median price | $422,500 | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |

## 6. Market Datapoints And Reported News Facts

| item | latest value or fact | date | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| S&P 500 index | closed at 7,570.06 on Yahoo Finance historical page | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| S&P 500 daily move | public market pages reported +1.65% | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| Nasdaq 100 daily move | public market pages reported +3.06% | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| Dow daily move | public market pages reported +0.92% | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| VIX | Cboe displayed 16.20, down 8.37% from previous close | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| Iran / Strait of Hormuz news | public market reports described a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal and reopening prospects for the Strait of Hormuz | 2026-06-15 | reported |
| Brent crude | public market reports described Brent near $83 per barrel intraday after a roughly 4%-5% drop | 2026-06-15 | reported |
| U.S. equity market holiday | Nasdaq lists Juneteenth, June 19, 2026, as closed | 2026 calendar | scheduled |

## 7. Selected Mechanical Return Context

The full mechanical return table follows this briefing in the model input. The table is calculated from Yahoo Finance adjusted-close chart data without API keys.

| asset proxy | symbol | adjusted close as of 2026-06-15 | 7d return | 30d return | 6m return | 1y return |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 754.83 | 2.11% | 2.12% | 11.52% | 27.89% |
| Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 744.00 | 3.90% | 4.95% | 22.17% | 41.87% |
| Small-cap ETF | IWM | 294.64 | 3.71% | 6.14% | 17.55% | 42.57% |
| Technology sector ETF | XLK | 191.79 | 4.13% | 8.81% | 35.15% | 61.30% |
| Semiconductor ETF | SMH | 647.10 | 8.18% | 16.31% | 83.94% | 152.58% |
| Energy sector ETF | XLE | 55.55 | -4.77% | -6.54% | 24.78% | 30.16% |
| Oil ETF | USO | 121.21 | -10.31% | -18.23% | 78.54% | 51.10% |
| Gold ETF | IAU | 81.26 | -0.15% | -4.97% | 0.22% | 25.52% |
| Silver ETF | SLV | 63.47 | 3.07% | -8.07% | 9.22% | 92.51% |
| U.S. dollar ETF | UUP | 27.97 | -0.21% | 0.72% | 3.56% | 6.46% |
| Bitcoin ETF | IBIT | 37.74 | 5.15% | -15.80% | -22.44% | -36.83% |
| Ethereum ETF | ETHA | 13.76 | 8.18% | -17.90% | -37.79% | -28.11% |

## 8. Scheduled Events

| date | event | entity | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-06-16 | New Residential Construction, May 2026 | U.S. Census / HUD | scheduled |
| 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| 2026-06-17 2:00 PM ET | FOMC policy statement | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| 2026-06-17 2:30 PM ET | FOMC press conference | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| 2026-06-17 | Advance retail sales, May 2026 | U.S. Census | scheduled |
| 2026-06-18 | Weekly jobless claims | U.S. Department of Labor | scheduled |
| 2026-06-18 | MPC summary and minutes | Bank of England | scheduled |
| 2026-06-19 | Juneteenth market holiday | Nasdaq / NYSE | scheduled |
| 2026-06-22 | Weekly round exit close | CapitalBench | scheduled |
| 2026-06-25 | Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 | BEA | scheduled |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI, June 2026 | BLS | scheduled |
| 2026-07-15 | Monthly round exit close | CapitalBench | scheduled |

## 9. Final Neutrality Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return.

## Full-Universe Trailing Returns

This table is mechanically calculated from Yahoo Finance adjusted-close chart data retrieved without API keys. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-15
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-06-15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-15 | 0.05% | 0.27% | 1.76% | 3.85% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-15 | 2.11% | 2.12% | 11.52% | 27.89% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-15 | 2.21% | 2.70% | 11.76% | 28.40% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 3.90% | 4.95% | 22.17% | 41.87% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-15 | 1.12% | -0.01% | 6.21% | 23.12% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-15 | 2.74% | 5.00% | 15.93% | 30.69% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-15 | 2.77% | 5.46% | 14.42% | 28.12% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-15 | 3.71% | 6.14% | 17.55% | 42.57% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-15 | 2.86% | 5.50% | 17.40% | 44.11% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.05% | 2.87% | 18.54% | 25.99% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.39% | 2.76% | 4.18% | 4.71% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-15 | 5.89% | 11.86% | 34.83% | 46.06% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 4.13% | 8.81% | 35.15% | 61.30% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 0.99% | -3.35% | -3.14% | 10.72% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.76% | 1.75% | -2.21% | 12.88% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.90% | 0.99% | 8.80% | 8.50% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 0.16% | 5.37% | -1.23% | 14.31% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 3.06% | 4.81% | -1.76% | 8.86% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.91% | 4.25% | 14.53% | 26.95% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | -4.77% | -6.54% | 24.78% | 30.16% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 5.08% | 4.37% | 17.48% | 22.52% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.80% | 1.98% | 5.02% | 13.03% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.18% | 4.07% | 11.92% | 11.13% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.81% | 1.16% | -0.15% | 3.88% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 1.30% | 2.87% | 0.32% | 3.82% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.58% | 0.39% | 1.63% | 4.90% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-15 | 0.86% | 1.43% | 1.10% | 5.78% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-15 | 0.63% | 1.25% | 2.29% | 6.95% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.69% | 1.18% | 0.92% | 4.96% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 3.62% | 4.79% | 17.35% | 32.96% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 4.30% | 4.11% | 15.35% | 29.26% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.69% | 4.76% | 9.51% | 20.07% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.29% | 3.28% | 14.98% | 33.65% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.85% | -3.02% | -8.66% | 2.52% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 4.34% | 2.65% | -7.23% | -8.85% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-15 | -0.15% | -4.97% | 0.22% | 25.52% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-15 | -4.14% | -9.24% | 29.30% | 29.58% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 8.18% | 16.31% | 83.94% | 152.58% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | -3.11% | 0.98% | -12.06% | -12.79% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 3.27% | 9.03% | 33.54% | 60.30% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 2.29% | 1.98% | 19.36% | 64.14% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 0.16% | 9.13% | 19.17% | 19.84% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-15 | -1.38% | -3.48% | 31.81% | 79.30% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 1.72% | 4.36% | 19.83% | 85.37% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-15 | 2.54% | 5.62% | 10.84% | 22.05% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-15 | 6.21% | 4.37% | 11.41% | 63.76% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-15 | 2.66% | 7.85% | 8.69% | 31.71% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-15 | 4.46% | 9.26% | 13.32% | 32.43% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.50% | 2.59% | 10.51% | 30.46% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | -0.47% | 1.40% | 7.66% | 18.92% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.89% | -0.42% | 10.10% | 12.21% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 13.90% | 18.22% | 133.15% | 225.50% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 5.91% | 16.53% | 73.54% | 99.21% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.82% | -4.39% | 6.77% | 29.79% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 3.82% | 0.71% | 12.45% | 32.14% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 4.50% | 0.58% | 2.65% | 35.66% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.88% | 1.37% | 1.52% | 6.57% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.22% | 1.25% | 1.92% | 6.51% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-15 | 1.50% | 2.54% | 2.95% | 11.94% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.67% | 1.71% | 1.14% | 2.29% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 3.07% | -8.07% | 9.22% | 92.51% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 2.85% | 3.96% | 19.61% | 33.19% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 0.19% | -5.21% | 3.76% | 1.38% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-15 | -10.31% | -18.23% | 78.54% | 51.10% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-15 | -0.21% | 0.72% | 3.56% | 6.46% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-15 | 0.44% | -0.28% | -1.07% | 0.98% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-15 | -0.07% | -1.05% | -3.39% | -10.59% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-15 | 5.15% | -15.80% | -22.44% | -36.83% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-15 | 8.18% | -17.90% | -37.79% | -28.11% | pass |

## Options

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Base Instructions prompt.md

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.

The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-week scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.

Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

Round Manifest manifest.yaml

round_id: CB-2026-06-15-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-06-15-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-06-15'
decision_deadline: '2026-06-16T02:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
  min_holdings: 1
  max_holdings: 5
  allocation_increment_pct: 5
  min_allocation_pct: 5
  max_total_allocation_pct: 100
  allow_cash: true
  allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, June 15, 2026 as the post-close entry snapshot.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, June 22, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends.
entry_date: '2026-06-15'
exit_date: '2026-06-22'
created_at: '2026-06-16T00:01:42.475348+00:00'
notes: Research assembled after the June 15, 2026 U.S. market close. Fable 5 is excluded from this run at operator instruction.

Briefing briefing.md

# CapitalBench Briefing

## 1. Neutrality And Bias-Control Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe trailing-return table follows this briefing in the model input.

## 2. Research And Evaluation Setup

| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| research cutoff | 2026-06-16T00:10:00Z |
| decision deadline | 2026-06-16T02:30:00Z |
| weekly round | CB-2026-06-15-1W |
| weekly entry and exit dates | 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-22 |
| monthly round | CB-2026-06-15-1M |
| monthly entry and exit dates | 2026-06-15 to 2026-07-15 |
| model access rule | no tool use and no web access |
| shared-input rule | competing models receive the same frozen factual briefing, fixed ETF option universe, and mechanical return table |

## 3. Latest Macro Datapoints

| indicator | latest value | period | date | publisher | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CPI headline | +0.5% MoM, +4.2% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| CPI core | +0.2% MoM, +2.9% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| CPI energy | +3.9% MoM, +23.5% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| CPI shelter | +0.3% MoM, +3.4% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS | observed |
| PPI final demand | +1.1% MoM, +6.5% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS | observed |
| Nonfarm payrolls | +172,000 | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Unemployment rate | 4.3% | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Labor-force participation | 61.8% | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Average hourly earnings | +0.3% MoM, +3.4% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS | observed |
| Initial jobless claims | 229,000 | week ended 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor | observed |
| Continuing jobless claims | 1,795,000 | week ended 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor | observed |
| JOLTS job openings | 7.6 million | Apr. 2026 | 2026-06-02 | BLS | observed |
| PCE price index | +0.4% MoM, +3.8% YoY | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA | observed |
| Core PCE | +0.2% MoM, +3.3% YoY | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA | observed |
| Personal income / spending | 0.0% MoM / +0.5% MoM | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA | observed |
| Retail and food services sales | +0.5% MoM, +4.9% YoY | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census | observed |
| Industrial production | +0.1% MoM, +1.7% YoY | May 2026 | 2026-06-15 | Federal Reserve | observed |
| Manufacturing output | 0.0% MoM | May 2026 | 2026-06-15 | Federal Reserve | observed |
| Capacity utilization | 76.2% | May 2026 | 2026-06-15 | Federal Reserve | observed |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 54.0 | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM | observed |
| ISM Services PMI | 54.5 | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM | observed |
| University of Michigan sentiment | 48.9 preliminary | June 2026 | June preliminary | University of Michigan | observed |
| Michigan 1-year / long-run inflation expectations | 4.6% / 3.4% | June 2026 preliminary | June preliminary | University of Michigan | observed |
| Conference Board Consumer Confidence | 93.1 | May 2026 | 2026-05-26 | The Conference Board | observed |

## 4. Rates, Policy, Volatility, And Currency Datapoints

| indicator | latest value | period / observation | publisher | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Federal funds target range | 3.50%-3.75% | maintained at Apr. 28-29 FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | observed |
| Next FOMC meeting | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | scheduled | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| Effective federal funds rate | 3.62% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 3-month Treasury bill | 3.63% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 2-year Treasury | 4.09% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 5-year Treasury | 4.21% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 10-year Treasury | 4.48% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 30-year Treasury | 4.97% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 5-year TIPS real yield | 1.82% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| 10-year TIPS real yield | 2.17% | 2026-06-12 | Federal Reserve H.15 | observed |
| VIX spot | 16.20 | 2026-06-15, displayed 8:15 PM ET | Cboe | observed |
| U.S. Dollar Index | about 99.65 | 2026-06-15 | public market-data pages | observed |

## 5. Housing Datapoints

| indicator | latest value | period | date | publisher | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Housing starts | 1,465,000 SAAR | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |
| Building permits | 1,442,000 SAAR | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |
| Existing-home sales | 4.17 million SAAR | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | NAR | observed |
| Existing-home median price | $429,300 | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | NAR | observed |
| Existing-home inventory | 4.5 months | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | NAR | observed |
| New-home sales | 622,000 SAAR | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |
| New-home median price | $422,500 | Apr. 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census / HUD | observed |

## 6. Market Datapoints And Reported News Facts

| item | latest value or fact | date | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| S&P 500 index | closed at 7,570.06 on Yahoo Finance historical page | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| S&P 500 daily move | public market pages reported +1.65% | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| Nasdaq 100 daily move | public market pages reported +3.06% | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| Dow daily move | public market pages reported +0.92% | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| VIX | Cboe displayed 16.20, down 8.37% from previous close | 2026-06-15 | observed |
| Iran / Strait of Hormuz news | public market reports described a preliminary U.S.-Iran peace deal and reopening prospects for the Strait of Hormuz | 2026-06-15 | reported |
| Brent crude | public market reports described Brent near $83 per barrel intraday after a roughly 4%-5% drop | 2026-06-15 | reported |
| U.S. equity market holiday | Nasdaq lists Juneteenth, June 19, 2026, as closed | 2026 calendar | scheduled |

## 7. Selected Mechanical Return Context

The full mechanical return table follows this briefing in the model input. The table is calculated from Yahoo Finance adjusted-close chart data without API keys.

| asset proxy | symbol | adjusted close as of 2026-06-15 | 7d return | 30d return | 6m return | 1y return |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
| S&P 500 ETF | SPY | 754.83 | 2.11% | 2.12% | 11.52% | 27.89% |
| Nasdaq 100 ETF | QQQ | 744.00 | 3.90% | 4.95% | 22.17% | 41.87% |
| Small-cap ETF | IWM | 294.64 | 3.71% | 6.14% | 17.55% | 42.57% |
| Technology sector ETF | XLK | 191.79 | 4.13% | 8.81% | 35.15% | 61.30% |
| Semiconductor ETF | SMH | 647.10 | 8.18% | 16.31% | 83.94% | 152.58% |
| Energy sector ETF | XLE | 55.55 | -4.77% | -6.54% | 24.78% | 30.16% |
| Oil ETF | USO | 121.21 | -10.31% | -18.23% | 78.54% | 51.10% |
| Gold ETF | IAU | 81.26 | -0.15% | -4.97% | 0.22% | 25.52% |
| Silver ETF | SLV | 63.47 | 3.07% | -8.07% | 9.22% | 92.51% |
| U.S. dollar ETF | UUP | 27.97 | -0.21% | 0.72% | 3.56% | 6.46% |
| Bitcoin ETF | IBIT | 37.74 | 5.15% | -15.80% | -22.44% | -36.83% |
| Ethereum ETF | ETHA | 13.76 | 8.18% | -17.90% | -37.79% | -28.11% |

## 8. Scheduled Events

| date | event | entity | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2026-06-16 | New Residential Construction, May 2026 | U.S. Census / HUD | scheduled |
| 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | FOMC meeting | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| 2026-06-17 2:00 PM ET | FOMC policy statement | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| 2026-06-17 2:30 PM ET | FOMC press conference | Federal Reserve | scheduled |
| 2026-06-17 | Advance retail sales, May 2026 | U.S. Census | scheduled |
| 2026-06-18 | Weekly jobless claims | U.S. Department of Labor | scheduled |
| 2026-06-18 | MPC summary and minutes | Bank of England | scheduled |
| 2026-06-19 | Juneteenth market holiday | Nasdaq / NYSE | scheduled |
| 2026-06-22 | Weekly round exit close | CapitalBench | scheduled |
| 2026-06-25 | Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 | BEA | scheduled |
| 2026-07-14 | CPI, June 2026 | BLS | scheduled |
| 2026-07-15 | Monthly round exit close | CapitalBench | scheduled |

## 9. Final Neutrality Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return.

Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md

This table is mechanically calculated from Yahoo Finance adjusted-close chart data retrieved without API keys. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-15
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-06-15 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-15 | 0.05% | 0.27% | 1.76% | 3.85% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-15 | 2.11% | 2.12% | 11.52% | 27.89% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-15 | 2.21% | 2.70% | 11.76% | 28.40% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 3.90% | 4.95% | 22.17% | 41.87% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-15 | 1.12% | -0.01% | 6.21% | 23.12% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-15 | 2.74% | 5.00% | 15.93% | 30.69% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-15 | 2.77% | 5.46% | 14.42% | 28.12% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-15 | 3.71% | 6.14% | 17.55% | 42.57% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-15 | 2.86% | 5.50% | 17.40% | 44.11% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.05% | 2.87% | 18.54% | 25.99% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.39% | 2.76% | 4.18% | 4.71% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-15 | 5.89% | 11.86% | 34.83% | 46.06% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 4.13% | 8.81% | 35.15% | 61.30% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 0.99% | -3.35% | -3.14% | 10.72% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.76% | 1.75% | -2.21% | 12.88% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.90% | 0.99% | 8.80% | 8.50% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 0.16% | 5.37% | -1.23% | 14.31% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 3.06% | 4.81% | -1.76% | 8.86% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.91% | 4.25% | 14.53% | 26.95% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | -4.77% | -6.54% | 24.78% | 30.16% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 5.08% | 4.37% | 17.48% | 22.52% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.80% | 1.98% | 5.02% | 13.03% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-15 | 2.18% | 4.07% | 11.92% | 11.13% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.81% | 1.16% | -0.15% | 3.88% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 1.30% | 2.87% | 0.32% | 3.82% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.58% | 0.39% | 1.63% | 4.90% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-15 | 0.86% | 1.43% | 1.10% | 5.78% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-15 | 0.63% | 1.25% | 2.29% | 6.95% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.69% | 1.18% | 0.92% | 4.96% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 3.62% | 4.79% | 17.35% | 32.96% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 4.30% | 4.11% | 15.35% | 29.26% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.69% | 4.76% | 9.51% | 20.07% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.29% | 3.28% | 14.98% | 33.65% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.85% | -3.02% | -8.66% | 2.52% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-15 | 4.34% | 2.65% | -7.23% | -8.85% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-15 | -0.15% | -4.97% | 0.22% | 25.52% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-15 | -4.14% | -9.24% | 29.30% | 29.58% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 8.18% | 16.31% | 83.94% | 152.58% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | -3.11% | 0.98% | -12.06% | -12.79% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 3.27% | 9.03% | 33.54% | 60.30% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 2.29% | 1.98% | 19.36% | 64.14% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-15 | 0.16% | 9.13% | 19.17% | 19.84% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-15 | -1.38% | -3.48% | 31.81% | 79.30% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 1.72% | 4.36% | 19.83% | 85.37% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-15 | 2.54% | 5.62% | 10.84% | 22.05% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-15 | 6.21% | 4.37% | 11.41% | 63.76% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-15 | 2.66% | 7.85% | 8.69% | 31.71% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-15 | 4.46% | 9.26% | 13.32% | 32.43% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.50% | 2.59% | 10.51% | 30.46% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | -0.47% | 1.40% | 7.66% | 18.92% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 1.89% | -0.42% | 10.10% | 12.21% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 13.90% | 18.22% | 133.15% | 225.50% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 5.91% | 16.53% | 73.54% | 99.21% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 2.82% | -4.39% | 6.77% | 29.79% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 3.82% | 0.71% | 12.45% | 32.14% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-15 | 4.50% | 0.58% | 2.65% | 35.66% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.88% | 1.37% | 1.52% | 6.57% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.22% | 1.25% | 1.92% | 6.51% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-15 | 1.50% | 2.54% | 2.95% | 11.94% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-15 | 0.67% | 1.71% | 1.14% | 2.29% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 3.07% | -8.07% | 9.22% | 92.51% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 2.85% | 3.96% | 19.61% | 33.19% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-15 | 0.19% | -5.21% | 3.76% | 1.38% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-15 | -10.31% | -18.23% | 78.54% | 51.10% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-15 | -0.21% | 0.72% | 3.56% | 6.46% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-15 | 0.44% | -0.28% | -1.07% | 0.98% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-15 | -0.07% | -1.05% | -3.39% | -10.59% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-15 | 5.15% | -15.80% | -22.44% | -36.83% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-15 | 8.18% | -17.90% | -37.79% | -28.11% | pass |

Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Source Options YAML options.yaml

options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    is_benchmark: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

  - id: BROAD_AI_TECH
    name: Broad AI Technology
    symbol: AIQ
    tiingo_symbol: AIQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."

  - id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
    name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
    symbol: ARKQ
    tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."

  - id: CYBERSECURITY
    name: Cybersecurity
    symbol: CIBR
    tiingo_symbol: CIBR
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."

  - id: SOLAR
    name: Solar Energy
    symbol: TAN
    tiingo_symbol: TAN
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: clean_energy
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."

  - id: METALS_MINING
    name: Metals and Mining
    symbol: XME
    tiingo_symbol: XME
    asset_class: equity
    category: commodity_equity
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."

  - id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
    name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
    symbol: RSP
    tiingo_symbol: RSP
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."

  - id: BIOTECH
    name: Biotechnology
    symbol: XBI
    tiingo_symbol: XBI
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."

  - id: REGIONAL_BANKS
    name: Regional Banks
    symbol: KRE
    tiingo_symbol: KRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."

  - id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
    name: Aerospace and Defense
    symbol: ITA
    tiingo_symbol: ITA
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: CANADA
    name: Canada Equities
    symbol: EWC
    tiingo_symbol: EWC
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."

  - id: UNITED_KINGDOM
    name: United Kingdom Equities
    symbol: EWU
    tiingo_symbol: EWU
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."

  - id: AUSTRALIA
    name: Australia Equities
    symbol: EWA
    tiingo_symbol: EWA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."

  - id: SOUTH_KOREA
    name: South Korea Equities
    symbol: EWY
    tiingo_symbol: EWY
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."

  - id: TAIWAN
    name: Taiwan Equities
    symbol: EWT
    tiingo_symbol: EWT
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: BRAZIL
    name: Brazil Equities
    symbol: EWZ
    tiingo_symbol: EWZ
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."

  - id: MEXICO
    name: Mexico Equities
    symbol: EWW
    tiingo_symbol: EWW
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."

  - id: SOUTH_AFRICA
    name: South Africa Equities
    symbol: EZA
    tiingo_symbol: EZA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."

  - id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
    name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
    symbol: MBB
    tiingo_symbol: MBB
    asset_class: bond
    category: securitized_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."

  - id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
    name: Municipal Bonds
    symbol: MUB
    tiingo_symbol: MUB
    asset_class: bond
    category: municipal_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
    name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
    symbol: EMB
    tiingo_symbol: EMB
    asset_class: bond
    category: emerging_market_debt
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."

  - id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
    name: International Aggregate Bonds
    symbol: BNDX
    tiingo_symbol: BNDX
    asset_class: bond
    category: international_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."

  - id: SILVER
    name: Silver
    symbol: SLV
    tiingo_symbol: SLV
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."

  - id: COPPER
    name: Copper
    symbol: CPER
    tiingo_symbol: CPER
    asset_class: commodity
    category: industrial_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."

  - id: AGRICULTURE
    name: Agriculture Commodities
    symbol: DBA
    tiingo_symbol: DBA
    asset_class: commodity
    category: agriculture
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."

  - id: OIL
    name: Crude Oil
    symbol: USO
    tiingo_symbol: USO
    asset_class: commodity
    category: energy_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."

  - id: US_DOLLAR
    name: US Dollar
    symbol: UUP
    tiingo_symbol: UUP
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."

  - id: EURO
    name: Euro
    symbol: FXE
    tiingo_symbol: FXE
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."

  - id: YEN
    name: Japanese Yen
    symbol: FXY
    tiingo_symbol: FXY
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BITCOIN_ETF
    name: Bitcoin ETF
    symbol: IBIT
    tiingo_symbol: IBIT
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."

  - id: ETHEREUM_ETF
    name: Ethereum ETF
    symbol: ETHA
    tiingo_symbol: ETHA
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."

Round Hashes hashes.json

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  "files": {
    "briefing.md": "93a5aa93d8d62b80d6a0d1855ed79696cc721ae43680478ba28dbe7e6049efe8",
    "manifest.yaml": "325f85f2b7da5e7765a144e4f644c000edaeeafb32bde248cc8716cd73c2a142",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "9f5bc80a6d083acdb4b8194e97a8cc112d4a29748ad9bce8d78b338e2ea8a623",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "15066110c298292a21d98555c3bde2f451b852617667598f8a6c895f91712fce",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "e129c1d066abf520b5d93ef0ac0f83fe0e0d639aed716e712e951831896ab93b",
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    "prompt.md": "03b5e9792d4c6bade89526a62f43cbdf51184fe03753997a0637de246e708b81"
  }
}

Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 5 model calls

Claude Opus 4.7

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-15-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Claude Opus 4.8

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-15-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Gemini 3.1 Pro

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-15-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

GPT-5.5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-15-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Grok 4.3

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-15-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Parsed provider responses

Model Outputs

These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 25% South Korea Equities (EWY) 15% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 10%

Confidence: 0.58
Run Type: official

Rationale

Risk-on tilt into the FOMC week with oil collapsing on Iran de-escalation and VIX falling. Concentrate in semis/AI complex and momentum where trend is strongest, with Korea as levered semi proxy and biotech as rate-sensitive kicker.

Lean into AI/semis momentum and growth tech as geopolitical risk eases and FOMC likely sounds dovish given softening labor data, while oil-driven inflation pressure abates.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strong momentum, AI capex tailwind, geopolitical de-escalation supports risk-on tech.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 25% - FOMC dovish potential plus oil drop benefits growth/tech mega-caps.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 15% - Powerful momentum tied to semis cycle, leveraged to global tech rally.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 15% - Factor riding the tech/AI trend with broader diversification.
Biotechnology (XBI): 10% - Rate-sensitive small-cap healthcare, benefits from dovish FOMC and improving risk appetite.

Key Risks

Hawkish FOMC surprise on June 17 given sticky 4.2% headline CPI
Semiconductor profit-taking after 8% weekly and 16% monthly gains
Iran deal unwinds, oil spikes back and risk-off returns
Mega-cap tech-specific negative headline drags QQQ/SMH
Juneteenth holiday compresses liquidity around FOMC reaction

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.58,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hawkish FOMC surprise on June 17 given sticky 4.2% headline CPI",
    "Semiconductor profit-taking after 8% weekly and 16% monthly gains",
    "Iran deal unwinds, oil spikes back and risk-off returns",
    "Mega-cap tech-specific negative headline drags QQQ/SMH",
    "Juneteenth holiday compresses liquidity around FOMC reaction"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strong momentum, AI capex tailwind, geopolitical de-escalation supports risk-on tech."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "NASDAQ100",
      "rationale": "FOMC dovish potential plus oil drop benefits growth/tech mega-caps."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Powerful momentum tied to semis cycle, leveraged to global tech rally."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Factor riding the tech/AI trend with broader diversification."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "BIOTECH",
      "rationale": "Rate-sensitive small-cap healthcare, benefits from dovish FOMC and improving risk appetite."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Risk-on tilt into the FOMC week with oil collapsing on Iran de-escalation and VIX falling. Concentrate in semis/AI complex and momentum where trend is strongest, with Korea as levered semi proxy and biotech as rate-sensitive kicker.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Lean into AI/semis momentum and growth tech as geopolitical risk eases and FOMC likely sounds dovish given softening labor data, while oil-driven inflation pressure abates.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-15-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 21336,
    "latency_seconds": 13.083652184111997,
    "output_tokens": 772,
    "total_tokens": 22108
  }
}

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 25% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 20% South Korea Equities (EWY) 10% Financials Sector (XLF) 10%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Risk-on tilt to high-beta tech and momentum leaders to capture continuation of the relief rally driven by Iran de-escalation, falling oil, and a low VIX, while a held Fed reduces rate shock risk over the short window.

Concentrate in semiconductors, Nasdaq, and momentum with a chip-country and financials cyclical kicker to maximize alpha versus SPY in a risk-on week.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strongest momentum proxy with broad AI-driven leadership; relief rally on Iran de-escalation and falling VIX favors high-beta tech into FOMC.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 25% - Mega-cap growth leadership confirmed by +3.06% Nasdaq move; benefits from easing geopolitical risk and stable rates.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 20% - Momentum factor leading all factors; trend persistence likely into a risk-on, de-escalation week.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 10% - Semiconductor-heavy with explosive recent momentum; geopolitical relief supports export/chip cyclicals.
Financials Sector (XLF): 10% - Cyclical risk-on participation with steady curve; broad rally breadth supports financials into FOMC hold.

Key Risks

Hawkish FOMC tone on June 17 amid +4.2% YoY CPI could trigger sharp tech/momentum drawdown
Iran peace deal could unravel, reversing the geopolitical relief and oil decline
Crowded high-beta positioning vulnerable to a sharp momentum-factor reversal
Juneteenth holiday compresses trading days, amplifying single-event volatility

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hawkish FOMC tone on June 17 amid +4.2% YoY CPI could trigger sharp tech/momentum drawdown",
    "Iran peace deal could unravel, reversing the geopolitical relief and oil decline",
    "Crowded high-beta positioning vulnerable to a sharp momentum-factor reversal",
    "Juneteenth holiday compresses trading days, amplifying single-event volatility"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strongest momentum proxy with broad AI-driven leadership; relief rally on Iran de-escalation and falling VIX favors high-beta tech into FOMC."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "NASDAQ100",
      "rationale": "Mega-cap growth leadership confirmed by +3.06% Nasdaq move; benefits from easing geopolitical risk and stable rates."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Momentum factor leading all factors; trend persistence likely into a risk-on, de-escalation week."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Semiconductor-heavy with explosive recent momentum; geopolitical relief supports export/chip cyclicals."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Cyclical risk-on participation with steady curve; broad rally breadth supports financials into FOMC hold."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Risk-on tilt to high-beta tech and momentum leaders to capture continuation of the relief rally driven by Iran de-escalation, falling oil, and a low VIX, while a held Fed reduces rate shock risk over the short window.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Concentrate in semiconductors, Nasdaq, and momentum with a chip-country and financials cyclical kicker to maximize alpha versus SPY in a risk-on week.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-15-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 21331,
    "latency_seconds": 10.859938482986763,
    "output_tokens": 750,
    "total_tokens": 22081
  }
}

Google

Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

4 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 40% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 30% South Korea Equities (EWY) 20% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 10%

Confidence: 0.65
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology, semiconductors, and momentum factors to capitalize on the strong recent performance in these areas over a short one-week horizon. The inclusion of South Korea provides additional, correlated exposure to the semiconductor theme.

Overweighting high-beta tech and momentum to ride the current market trend into the FOMC meeting.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Strong recent momentum and high beta to the broader tech rally, positioning it well for a short-term continuation.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 30% - Broad exposure to the leading tech and growth names driving the current market advance.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 20% - High sensitivity to the semiconductor cycle and global trade, showing strong recent performance.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 10% - Captures the prevailing trend in the market, which is currently favoring high-growth and tech-oriented equities.

Key Risks

A hawkish surprise from the FOMC meeting could disproportionately impact high-duration growth and tech stocks.
A sudden reversal in the semiconductor trade due to profit-taking or negative news.
Geopolitical events or macroeconomic data that trigger a broad risk-off move, impacting high-beta assets.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.65,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A hawkish surprise from the FOMC meeting could disproportionately impact high-duration growth and tech stocks.",
    "A sudden reversal in the semiconductor trade due to profit-taking or negative news.",
    "Geopolitical events or macroeconomic data that trigger a broad risk-off move, impacting high-beta assets."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 40,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strong recent momentum and high beta to the broader tech rally, positioning it well for a short-term continuation."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "NASDAQ100",
      "rationale": "Broad exposure to the leading tech and growth names driving the current market advance."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "High sensitivity to the semiconductor cycle and global trade, showing strong recent performance."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Captures the prevailing trend in the market, which is currently favoring high-growth and tech-oriented equities."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology, semiconductors, and momentum factors to capitalize on the strong recent performance in these areas over a short one-week horizon. The inclusion of South Korea provides additional, correlated exposure to the semiconductor theme.",
  "provider": "google",
  "rationale_summary": "Overweighting high-beta tech and momentum to ride the current market trend into the FOMC meeting.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-15-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 14589,
    "latency_seconds": 6.360606241971254,
    "output_tokens": 471,
    "total_tokens": 15060
  }
}

OpenAI

GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 35% Taiwan Equities (EWT) 20% South Korea Equities (EWY) 20% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 10%

Confidence: 0.58
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio leans into the strongest near-term risk-on and AI/semiconductor momentum areas, which have been outperforming the S&P 500 and could continue over a short holiday-shortened week. It diversifies across U.S. semiconductors, Taiwan, South Korea, broad momentum, and biotech while remaining intentionally high beta to maximize expected one-week alpha.

Reported Middle East de-escalation, falling volatility, and strong recent equity momentum favor concentrated cyclical growth and semiconductor-linked exposure. The main bet is short-term trend continuation rather than defensive positioning.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strongest liquid AI-related U.S. equity expression with exceptional 7-day and 30-day momentum; likely to benefit if risk appetite persists after the reported geopolitical de-escalation.
Taiwan Equities (EWT): 20% - Semiconductor-heavy country exposure with very strong recent momentum and direct linkage to global AI hardware demand.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 20% - Highest recent trailing return in the universe and leveraged to semiconductors, exports, and global risk-on flows, offering potential short-window continuation.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 15% - Broad U.S. momentum exposure captures trend persistence while diversifying beyond a single technology subsector or country.
Biotechnology (XBI): 10% - High-beta risk-on exposure with strong recent weekly performance and potential support if rates do not spike after the FOMC meeting.

Key Risks

The FOMC statement or press conference could be more hawkish than expected, pushing yields higher and reversing high-duration growth and biotech exposure.
Semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan exposures could suffer sharp profit-taking after very strong recent gains.
The reported U.S.-Iran peace deal or Strait of Hormuz reopening prospects could deteriorate, reigniting geopolitical risk-off behavior.
A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales or jobless-claims print could undermine risk appetite before the exit close.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.58,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "The FOMC statement or press conference could be more hawkish than expected, pushing yields higher and reversing high-duration growth and biotech exposure.",
    "Semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan exposures could suffer sharp profit-taking after very strong recent gains.",
    "The reported U.S.-Iran peace deal or Strait of Hormuz reopening prospects could deteriorate, reigniting geopolitical risk-off behavior.",
    "A weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales or jobless-claims print could undermine risk appetite before the exit close."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strongest liquid AI-related U.S. equity expression with exceptional 7-day and 30-day momentum; likely to benefit if risk appetite persists after the reported geopolitical de-escalation."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "TAIWAN",
      "rationale": "Semiconductor-heavy country exposure with very strong recent momentum and direct linkage to global AI hardware demand."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Highest recent trailing return in the universe and leveraged to semiconductors, exports, and global risk-on flows, offering potential short-window continuation."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Broad U.S. momentum exposure captures trend persistence while diversifying beyond a single technology subsector or country."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "BIOTECH",
      "rationale": "High-beta risk-on exposure with strong recent weekly performance and potential support if rates do not spike after the FOMC meeting."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio leans into the strongest near-term risk-on and AI/semiconductor momentum areas, which have been outperforming the S&P 500 and could continue over a short holiday-shortened week. It diversifies across U.S. semiconductors, Taiwan, South Korea, broad momentum, and biotech while remaining intentionally high beta to maximize expected one-week alpha.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Reported Middle East de-escalation, falling volatility, and strong recent equity momentum favor concentrated cyclical growth and semiconductor-linked exposure. The main bet is short-term trend continuation rather than defensive positioning.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-15-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 13170,
    "latency_seconds": 17.091168944025412,
    "output_tokens": 678,
    "reasoning_tokens": 179,
    "total_tokens": 13848
  }
}

xAI

Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 30% Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) 25% US Momentum Equities (MTUM) 20% Technology Sector (XLK) 15% Biotechnology (XBI) 10%

Confidence: 0.62
Run Type: official

Rationale

Concentrated tilt to high-momentum tech and semiconductor exposure captures observed leadership while staying within five holdings and 5% increments; FOMC and holiday compress the window but favor risk assets after the Iran-related oil drop.

Recent price action and macro relief favor growth and momentum factors over the next five trading sessions; allocation prioritizes realized leaders with plausible continuation before the June 22 exit close.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - Strong recent momentum and semiconductor supply-chain exposure likely to benefit from risk-on sentiment post-Iran deal.
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 25% - Heavy tech weighting aligns with observed 3.06% daily gain and continued AI-driven flows into the week.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 20% - Factor has led recent performance and should capture short-term trend continuation ahead of FOMC.
Technology Sector (XLK): 15% - Sector breadth supports outperformance in low-volatility, growth-favorable environment.
Biotechnology (XBI): 10% - Recent 6.21% 7-day return and event-driven upside potential over the compressed trading week.

Key Risks

FOMC statement or press conference on June 17 produces hawkish surprise and triggers broad equity rotation
Post-holiday thin trading on June 22 amplifies any late-week reversal in semiconductor names
Oil-price stabilization or renewed geopolitical headlines offset the Iran-deal relief rally

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.62,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "FOMC statement or press conference on June 17 produces hawkish surprise and triggers broad equity rotation",
    "Post-holiday thin trading on June 22 amplifies any late-week reversal in semiconductor names",
    "Oil-price stabilization or renewed geopolitical headlines offset the Iran-deal relief rally"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strong recent momentum and semiconductor supply-chain exposure likely to benefit from risk-on sentiment post-Iran deal."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "NASDAQ100",
      "rationale": "Heavy tech weighting aligns with observed 3.06% daily gain and continued AI-driven flows into the week."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Factor has led recent performance and should capture short-term trend continuation ahead of FOMC."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "rationale": "Sector breadth supports outperformance in low-volatility, growth-favorable environment."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "BIOTECH",
      "rationale": "Recent 6.21% 7-day return and event-driven upside potential over the compressed trading week."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated tilt to high-momentum tech and semiconductor exposure captures observed leadership while staying within five holdings and 5% increments; FOMC and holiday compress the window but favor risk assets after the Iran-related oil drop.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "Recent price action and macro relief favor growth and momentum factors over the next five trading sessions; allocation prioritizes realized leaders with plausible continuation before the June 22 exit close.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-15-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 13280,
    "latency_seconds": 7.290337184909731,
    "output_tokens": 466,
    "reasoning_tokens": 564,
    "total_tokens": 14310
  }
}

Public model run

Model Portfolios

This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.

Model	Provider	Portfolio	Confidence	Protocol
Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7	Anthropic	Semiconductors (SMH)35%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)25%South Korea Equities (EWY)15%US Momentum Equities (MTUM)15%Biotechnology (XBI)10%	0.58	Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8	Anthropic	Semiconductors (SMH)35%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)25%US Momentum Equities (MTUM)20%South Korea Equities (EWY)10%Financials Sector (XLF)10%	0.55	Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro	Google	Semiconductors (SMH)40%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)30%South Korea Equities (EWY)20%US Momentum Equities (MTUM)10%	0.65	Portfolio round
GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5	OpenAI	Semiconductors (SMH)35%Taiwan Equities (EWT)20%South Korea Equities (EWY)20%US Momentum Equities (MTUM)15%Biotechnology (XBI)10%	0.58	Portfolio round
Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3	xAI	Semiconductors (SMH)30%Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)25%US Momentum Equities (MTUM)20%Technology Sector (XLK)15%Biotechnology (XBI)10%	0.62	Portfolio round

Pricing

Starting Prices

Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.


AEROSPACE_DEFENSE	ITA	2026-06-15	237.39999389648438	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
AGGREGATE_BONDS	AGG	2026-06-15	98.8499984741211	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
AGRICULTURE	DBA	2026-06-15	26.3799991607666	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
AUSTRALIA	EWA	2026-06-15	28.600000381469727	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS	ARKQ	2026-06-15	134.69000244140625	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
BIOTECH	XBI	2026-06-15	136.39999389648438	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
BITCOIN_ETF	IBIT	2026-06-15	37.7400016784668	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
BRAZIL	EWZ	2026-06-15	34.63999938964844	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
BROAD_AI_TECH	AIQ	2026-06-15	66.55000305175781	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
BROAD_COMMODITIES	PDBC	2026-06-15	16.889999389648438	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
CANADA	EWC	2026-06-15	58.93000030517578	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
CASH		2026-06-15	1	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
CHINA	MCHI	2026-06-15	54.93000030517578	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
COMMUNICATIONS	XLC	2026-06-15	112.19000244140625	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY	XLY	2026-06-15	118.56999969482422	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
CONSUMER_STAPLES	XLP	2026-06-15	85.4800033569336	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
COPPER	CPER	2026-06-15	39.650001525878906	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
CYBERSECURITY	CIBR	2026-06-15	86.2699966430664	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
DEVELOPED_EX_US	VEA	2026-06-15	72.38999938964844	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
DIVIDEND	SCHD	2026-06-15	32.630001068115234	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS	EMB	2026-06-15	96.70999908447266	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
EMERGING_MARKETS	VWO	2026-06-15	60.84000015258789	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
ENERGY	XLE	2026-06-15	55.54999923706055	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500	RSP	2026-06-15	212.8800048828125	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
ETHEREUM_ETF	ETHA	2026-06-15	13.760000228881836	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
EURO	FXE	2026-06-15	106.88999938964844	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
EUROPE	VGK	2026-06-15	89.87000274658203	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
FINANCIALS	XLF	2026-06-15	53.560001373291016	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
GOLD	IAU	2026-06-15	81.26000213623047	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
HEALTHCARE	XLV	2026-06-15	152.88999938964844	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT	HYG	2026-06-15	80.04000091552734	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
INDIA	INDA	2026-06-15	49.2599983215332	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
INDUSTRIALS	XLI	2026-06-15	178.67999267578125	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY	IEF	2026-06-15	94.27999877929688	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
INTERNATIONAL_BONDS	BNDX	2026-06-15	48.27000045776367	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT	LQD	2026-06-15	108.98999786376953	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
JAPAN	EWJ	2026-06-15	94.05999755859375	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
LARGE_GROWTH	IWF	2026-06-15	124.36000061035156	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
LARGE_VALUE	IWD	2026-06-15	243.77999877929688	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
LONG_TREASURY	TLT	2026-06-15	85.72000122070312	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
LOW_VOL	SPLV	2026-06-15	74.19999694824219	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
MATERIALS	XLB	2026-06-15	52.5	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
METALS_MINING	XME	2026-06-15	120.62999725341797	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
MEXICO	EWW	2026-06-15	77.76000213623047	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
MID_CAP	IJH	2026-06-15	76.16000366210938	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
MOMENTUM	MTUM	2026-06-15	333.6300048828125	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS	MBB	2026-06-15	94.5199966430664	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
MUNICIPAL_BONDS	MUB	2026-06-15	107.16999816894531	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
NASDAQ100	QQQ	2026-06-15	744	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
OIL	USO	2026-06-15	121.20999908447266	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
REAL_ESTATE	XLRE	2026-06-15	44.9900016784668	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
REGIONAL_BANKS	KRE	2026-06-15	72.2300033569336	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SEMICONDUCTORS	SMH	2026-06-15	647.0999755859375	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SHORT_TREASURY	BIL	2026-06-15	91.51000213623047	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SILVER	SLV	2026-06-15	63.470001220703125	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SMALL_CAP	IWM	2026-06-15	294.6400146484375	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SMALL_VALUE	IWN	2026-06-15	217.3000030517578	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SOFTWARE	IGV	2026-06-15	92.68000030517578	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SOLAR	TAN	2026-06-15	62.70000076293945	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SOUTH_AFRICA	EZA	2026-06-15	67.75	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SOUTH_KOREA	EWY	2026-06-15	211.4499969482422	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
SP500	SPY	2026-06-15	754.8300170898438	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
TAIWAN	EWT	2026-06-15	106.37000274658203	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
TECHNOLOGY	XLK	2026-06-15	191.7899932861328	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
TIPS	TIP	2026-06-15	109.76000213623047	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
TOTAL_US_MARKET	VTI	2026-06-15	372.5299987792969	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
UNITED_KINGDOM	EWU	2026-06-15	46.209999084472656	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
US_DOLLAR	UUP	2026-06-15	27.969999313354492	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
UTILITIES	XLU	2026-06-15	44.7400016784668	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless
YEN	FXY	2026-06-15	57.2400016784668	yahoo_chart_adjclose_keyless

Audit

Published Hashes

Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.


briefing.md	93a5aa93d8d6...6049efe8
manifest.yaml	325f85f2b7da...73c2a142
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv	9f5bc80a6d08...2ea8a623
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json	15066110c298...91712fce
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md	e129c1d066ab...896ab93b
options.yaml	1003c5795615...4ce0c729
prompt.md	03b5e9792d4c...6e708b81