Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 63.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward defensive equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Energy Sector (XLE) is the largest aggregate allocation at +17.81%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-07-31 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260724
32,572 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Financials Sector (XLF)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-24
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-25T18:33:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-25T23:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-24
- Exit date: 2026-07-31
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 24, 2026 as the one-week entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 31, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-25T18:33:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 24, 2026
Scoring window: July 24 close through July 31 close
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 24 market close
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, up less than 0.1% on the day and down 0.6% for the week. The Dow closed at 51,947.25, up 0.5% on the day and down 0.4% for the week.
- The Nasdaq closed at 24,975.82, down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,930.00, down 0.3% on the day and 1.1% for the week.
- More S&P 500 constituents rose than fell on July 24. Micron fell 7.0% and Broadcom fell 2.7%.
- Year to date through July 24, the S&P 500 was up 8.3%, the Dow 8.1%, the Nasdaq 7.5%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Brent crude settled at $96.78 per barrel, down 3.9% on July 24 after settling at $100.69 on July 23. It traded near $72 before the late-February Iran war.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, down from 4.71% late July 23. It was 3.97% before the Iran war began.
- The U.S. national average regular gasoline price was $4.10 per gallon, compared with $3.93 approximately one month earlier.
## Current U.S. economic releases
- June CPI fell 0.4% seasonally adjusted and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% above a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and was 5.5% above a year earlier. Final-demand goods fell 1.4%, services rose 0.2%, and final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1%.
- June nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. April and May payroll growth was revised down by a combined 74,000. Labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June and 3.5% over 12 months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 187,000 in the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior revised week. The four-week average was 207,500.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May with a published ±0.4-percentage-point confidence interval and up 6.7% from June 2025.
- June new-home sales were estimated at a 628,000 annual rate, up 1.6% from May and down 5.6% from a year earlier. Published confidence intervals were ±14.8 points for the monthly change and ±13.2 points for the annual change.
- New-home inventory was 485,000 units, equal to 9.3 months of supply. The June median sale price was $398,300.
## Policy and international observations
- The FOMC maintained a 3.50%-3.75% federal-funds target range on June 17. Federal-funds futures late July 24 priced a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the July 28-29 meeting; this was a changing market-implied probability.
- The ECB kept its deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23. It described uncertainty around the energy shock as high and did not pre-commit to a rate path.
- Euro-area annual inflation was 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May.
- China reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% from a year earlier and second-quarter growth of 4.3% after 5.0% in the first quarter.
- China reported first-half per-capita disposable income growth of 5.2% nominally and 4.2% after price adjustment.
- A fresh U.S. tariff round announced July 24 affected nearly all U.S. imports. Implementation and the degree of consumer-price pass-through remained uncertain at the cutoff.
- Reuters reported that aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier as of July 22, based on LSEG IBES estimates from more than 80 reported companies.
## Scheduled events before the July 31 close
- July 27, 8:30 a.m. ET: June advance durable-goods report.
- July 28, 8:30 a.m. ET: June advance economic indicators.
- July 28-29: FOMC meeting; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on July 29.
- July 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: advance second-quarter GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices.
- July 30-31: Bank of Japan monetary-policy meeting and Outlook Report.
- July 31, 8:30 a.m. ET: second-quarter Employment Cost Index.
- July 31: euro-area July flash inflation.
- Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report during the week, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Visa, Chevron, and Coca-Cola; exact company times remained subject to issuer calendars.
## Neutrality statement
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. The complete mechanical appendices are generated separately in frozen option order, and price history is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-24-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-24'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-25T23:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-25T18:30:54.378171+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 24, 2026 as the one-week entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Friday, July 31, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-24'
exit_date: '2026-07-31'
created_at: '2026-07-25T18:30:54.378171+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 weekly round prepared from a brand-new July 24 close research package using direct public-source browsing. Claude Opus 5 joins the forward-only frozen roster. Participant tools, browsing, search, retrieval, and follow-up calls are disabled.# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-25T18:33:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Friday, July 24, 2026
Scoring window: July 24 close through July 31 close
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## July 24 market close
- The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, up less than 0.1% on the day and down 0.6% for the week. The Dow closed at 51,947.25, up 0.5% on the day and down 0.4% for the week.
- The Nasdaq closed at 24,975.82, down 0.6% on the day and 2.1% for the week. The Russell 2000 closed at 2,930.00, down 0.3% on the day and 1.1% for the week.
- More S&P 500 constituents rose than fell on July 24. Micron fell 7.0% and Broadcom fell 2.7%.
- Year to date through July 24, the S&P 500 was up 8.3%, the Dow 8.1%, the Nasdaq 7.5%, and the Russell 2000 18.1%.
- Brent crude settled at $96.78 per barrel, down 3.9% on July 24 after settling at $100.69 on July 23. It traded near $72 before the late-February Iran war.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, down from 4.71% late July 23. It was 3.97% before the Iran war began.
- The U.S. national average regular gasoline price was $4.10 per gallon, compared with $3.93 approximately one month earlier.
## Current U.S. economic releases
- June CPI fell 0.4% seasonally adjusted and rose 3.5% over 12 months. Core CPI was unchanged in June and rose 2.6% over 12 months. Energy fell 5.7% in June and was 15.7% above a year earlier.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% and was 5.5% above a year earlier. Final-demand goods fell 1.4%, services rose 0.2%, and final demand excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.1%.
- June nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 and unemployment was 4.2%. April and May payroll growth was revised down by a combined 74,000. Labor-force participation was 61.5%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in June and 3.5% over 12 months.
- Initial unemployment claims were 187,000 in the week ended July 18, down 22,000 from the prior revised week. The four-week average was 207,500.
- June retail and food-services sales were $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from May with a published ±0.4-percentage-point confidence interval and up 6.7% from June 2025.
- June new-home sales were estimated at a 628,000 annual rate, up 1.6% from May and down 5.6% from a year earlier. Published confidence intervals were ±14.8 points for the monthly change and ±13.2 points for the annual change.
- New-home inventory was 485,000 units, equal to 9.3 months of supply. The June median sale price was $398,300.
## Policy and international observations
- The FOMC maintained a 3.50%-3.75% federal-funds target range on June 17. Federal-funds futures late July 24 priced a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the July 28-29 meeting; this was a changing market-implied probability.
- The ECB kept its deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23. It described uncertainty around the energy shock as high and did not pre-commit to a rate path.
- Euro-area annual inflation was 2.8% in June, down from 3.2% in May.
- China reported first-half real GDP growth of 4.7% from a year earlier and second-quarter growth of 4.3% after 5.0% in the first quarter.
- China reported first-half per-capita disposable income growth of 5.2% nominally and 4.2% after price adjustment.
- A fresh U.S. tariff round announced July 24 affected nearly all U.S. imports. Implementation and the degree of consumer-price pass-through remained uncertain at the cutoff.
- Reuters reported that aggregate second-quarter S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier as of July 22, based on LSEG IBES estimates from more than 80 reported companies.
## Scheduled events before the July 31 close
- July 27, 8:30 a.m. ET: June advance durable-goods report.
- July 28, 8:30 a.m. ET: June advance economic indicators.
- July 28-29: FOMC meeting; statement at 2:00 p.m. ET and press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on July 29.
- July 30, 8:30 a.m. ET: advance second-quarter GDP and June personal income, outlays, and PCE prices.
- July 30-31: Bank of Japan monetary-policy meeting and Outlook Report.
- July 31, 8:30 a.m. ET: second-quarter Employment Cost Index.
- July 31: euro-area July flash inflation.
- Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report during the week, including Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple, Visa, Chevron, and Coca-Cola; exact company times remained subject to issuer calendars.
## Neutrality statement
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. The complete mechanical appendices are generated separately in frozen option order, and price history is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-24-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
With a live oil supply shock, hot headline inflation, fresh tariffs, and a 38% priced probability of a Fed hike at the July 29 FOMC, the portfolio tilts to energy, value, and low-beta defensive sectors that show positive relative trends and shallow drawdowns, avoiding stretched growth ahead of mega-cap earnings risk.
Energy plus defensive value/low-vol/healthcare/utilities barbell to capture the oil shock and hedge FOMC hike risk versus a rate-sensitive, growth-heavy SPY.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings season and no hike could extend the rally.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY down 0.6% for week, 5s return -0.59%",
"38% priced probability of 25bp hike at July 28-29 FOMC",
"Q2 earnings tracking +26.5% y/y; mega-caps report during window"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "N/A benchmark",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Surprise hike, hot PCE, or mega-cap earnings misses amid tariff shock.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; Microsoft/Amazon/Meta/Apple earnings; PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent supply shock keeps crude elevated; energy earnings leverage to $95+ Brent.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $96.78 vs ~$72 pre-Iran war",
"XLE prior-16s active return +6.30%, 5s active +3.95%",
"Chevron reports during window"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settles below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or demand destruction drops crude sharply (Brent fell 3.9% July 24).",
"time_window_catalyst": "Crude prices and Chevron earnings before July 31 close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate pressure and energy/financial strength keep value leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior-16s active +1.55%, only -0.49% from 52w high",
"Lowest-vol equity cohort (10.07% vol, -1.31% drawdown)",
"Hike risk pressures long-duration growth more than value"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth outperforms value by >1% early in the week",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Dovish FOMC plus mega-cap earnings beats rotate flows back to growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued defensive rotation into FOMC uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.93% 3s, +1.58% 5s active; at 52w high",
"Negative beta to SPY (-0.297)",
"Defensive bid amid tariff round and hike risk"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rallies >2% on dovish outcome",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on relief rally after dovish Fed leaves low-vol lagging.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive earnings resilience and momentum continue amid macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior-16s active +3.68%, 5s active +1.51%",
"Near 52w high (-1.14%), negative beta (-0.186)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by >1% mid-week",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation out of defensives or adverse policy headline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and macro data driving defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid persists into FOMC; yields eased slightly (4.68% from 4.71%).",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.05% 3s return, +3.07% 5s active",
"Near-zero SPY beta (-0.089)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "10y yield above 4.85%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "A Fed hike pushes yields higher, hurting rate-sensitive utilities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 rate decision"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Blowout mega-cap earnings could spark a sharp rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Down 2.1% for week, -8.20% from 52w high, 23.3% vol",
"Micron -7.0%, Broadcom -2.7% on July 24",
"Mega-cap earnings (MSFT, AMZN, META, AAPL) in window"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "N/A rejected",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Hike risk plus semi weakness and stretched valuations extend the drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings and FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical risk and inflation hedge demand support gold.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+0.97% 5s, but -24.95% from 52w high",
"Dollar strengthening (UUP +0.88% 5s) and hike risk are headwinds"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "N/A rejected",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Fed hike and stronger dollar pressure gold; base does not clear SPY hurdle confidently.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"cost_usd": 0.45469000000000004,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.61,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Dovish FOMC surprise triggering a growth/mega-cap rally that lifts SPY above defensives",
"Sharp oil price reversal on geopolitical de-escalation",
"Strong Microsoft/Amazon/Meta/Apple earnings driving tech-led SPY outperformance",
"Tariff pass-through fears hitting cyclical value and energy demand expectations"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $85 on de-escalation news",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil supply shock intact (Brent $96.78, up from ~$72 pre-Iran war); energy equities lag crude's move and have positive prior-16s active return of 6.30%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Elevated Brent through week; Chevron earnings during window"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dovish FOMC sparking growth-led rally",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value near 52w high, low vol, positive prior active trend; hike risk and hot headline inflation favor value over growth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29; PCE July 30"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on rally after dovish FOMC and mega-cap earnings beats",
"option_id": "LOW_VOL",
"rationale": "Defensive factor at 52w high with negative SPY beta; hedges FOMC hike risk and tariff uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision July 29 amid 38% priced hike probability"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy news or broad risk-on rotation out of defensives",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong prior active trend (+3.68%), near 52w high, negative beta; defensive earnings resilience amid tariff and rate risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around FOMC and GDP/PCE releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rising sharply above 4.85% on a hike",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Recent defensive bid (+3.05% 3s) and near-zero beta; cushions portfolio against FOMC volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; rate-sensitive flows"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.81,
"portfolio_rationale": "With a live oil supply shock, hot headline inflation, fresh tariffs, and a 38% priced probability of a Fed hike at the July 29 FOMC, the portfolio tilts to energy, value, and low-beta defensive sectors that show positive relative trends and shallow drawdowns, avoiding stretched growth ahead of mega-cap earnings risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Energy plus defensive value/low-vol/healthcare/utilities barbell to capture the oil shock and hedge FOMC hike risk versus a rate-sensitive, growth-heavy SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.45469000000000004,
"input_tokens": 27199,
"latency_seconds": 50.98313269391656,
"output_tokens": 3654,
"total_tokens": 30853
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Tilt toward lower-volatility cyclical and defensive equity sectors with strong recent relative strength and earnings support, anchored by SPY into a heavy earnings and FOMC week.
Industrials and financials show the best combination of recent relative strength, low volatility, and shallow drawdown while tech remains under pressure; SPY provides the core anchor.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings and dovish Fed lift broad index",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed 7,411.98, down 0.6% for week",
"Heavy mega-cap earnings week and FOMC July 28-29",
"Q2 S&P 500 earnings tracking +26.5%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Index breaks below prior week lows",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "FOMC hike or mega-cap misses drag index",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 and mega-cap earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum persists into durable-goods report",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s +2.40%",
"3s return +2.24%, low vol 16.17%",
"Near 52w high, shallow drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Durable-goods miss and cyclical selloff",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak durables or GDP triggers cyclical pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "June durable-goods July 27"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings and steady rates support banks",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.689, prior active rank 0.866",
"Low beta 0.181, near 52w high",
"Positive active return 5s +0.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit-spread widening or curve shock",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "FOMC surprise flattens curve, hurts banks",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings and FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium sustains oil",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active return 5s +3.95%",
"Brent fell 3.9% on July 24 to $96.78",
"Prior active +6.30%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil correction after Iran-war spike unwinds",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings and oil inventories"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"3s return +3.05%, active 5s +3.07%",
"Low beta, defensive",
"Rate-sensitive with 10yr at 4.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10yr yield spikes above 4.85%",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "Rising yields pressure rate-sensitive sector",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +1.51%, prior active +3.68%",
"Low beta -0.186, defensive",
"Quality score 0.570"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad defensive rotation reverses",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Policy/tariff headline risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dovish Fed rallies bonds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Return 3s -0.29%",
"10yr yield 4.68%, sticky inflation 3.5%",
"FOMC hike probability 38%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields rise sharply",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Hike or hot PCE lifts yields",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand on tariff/geopolitical risk",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Active 5s +1.55%",
"Far from 52w high -24.95%",
"Safe-haven amid tariffs"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rally accelerates",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength and rising real rates weigh",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and dollar moves"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.165,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC surprise hike (38% implied) roiling rates and equities",
"Mega-cap earnings misses dragging the broad index",
"Tariff round pass-through hitting cyclicals"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-off move or weak durable-goods and GDP prints",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative momentum (+2.4% active 5s), shallow drawdown, low volatility versus tech; defensive-cyclical tilt with earnings support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Durable-goods report July 27 and industrial earnings during the week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Yield-curve shock or credit-spread widening",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "High quality-evidence score (0.689), positive active returns, low beta, strong Q2 earnings tracking; defensive within equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Bank earnings and FOMC July 28-29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff below prior week lows",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad-market anchor into a heavy mega-cap earnings and FOMC week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Apple earnings and FOMC July 28-29"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.565,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward lower-volatility cyclical and defensive equity sectors with strong recent relative strength and earnings support, anchored by SPY into a heavy earnings and FOMC week.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Industrials and financials show the best combination of recent relative strength, low volatility, and shallow drawdown while tech remains under pressure; SPY provides the core anchor.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27205,
"latency_seconds": 35.624438571045175,
"output_tokens": 2470,
"total_tokens": 29675
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
A barbell of benchmark core plus low-beta defensive and commodity/rate-levered sectors reduces exposure to a single hawkish-FOMC or mega-cap-earnings shock while retaining upside from strong Q2 earnings breadth.
SPY faces a two-sided week: 38% implied odds of a hike, fresh tariffs, and mega-cap reports, against very strong Q2 earnings growth. Diversifying into healthcare, financials, and energy — all with positive prior active returns, shallow drawdowns, and low SPY correlation — offers modest expected alpha with lower event risk.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong Q2 earnings growth and one-third of index reporting can lift the benchmark.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,411.98, -0.6% for the week, +8.3% YTD",
"Q2 S&P 500 earnings tracking +26.5% year over year per LSEG IBES",
"38% market-implied probability of a 25bp hike July 28-29"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below 21-day drawdown lows on hawkish policy surprise",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish FOMC, new broad tariffs, and 4.68% 10-year yield pressure valuations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29, GDP/PCE July 30, mega-cap earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent defensive leadership with negative beta hedges policy-risk week.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +1.45% over 3 sessions, +1.51% active 5s, +3.68% prior 16s active",
"Beta to SPY -0.186, correlation -0.133",
"Only -1.14% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV lags SPY by more than 1.5% by mid-week",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on melt-up on dovish Fed leaves low-beta defensives behind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and PCE July 30 defensive flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady relative uptrend, low drawdown, and higher-rate tailwind for net interest margins.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF +3.36% prior 16s active return, -0.78% from 52-week high",
"21-day volatility 13.78% with only -2.08% max drawdown",
"Beta to SPY 0.181"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falls more than 1% on the week signaling credit stress",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit deterioration from tariffs or a dovish curve flattening hurts banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 and financial-sector Q2 reports"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sustained war-related supply premium and high energy inflation support sector cash flows.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $96.78, versus near $72 before the late-February Iran war",
"XLE +3.95% active 5s and +6.30% prior 16s active",
"Correlation to SPY -0.379, max 21-day drawdown only -2.37%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settles below $88 during the window",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Brent already fell 3.9% on July 24; de-escalation could unwind the premium quickly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings and crude supply headlines before July 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum in crude futures with geopolitical supply risk intact.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO +10.86% active 5s and +28.60% over 21 sessions",
"21-day volatility 47.91%",
"Brent fell 3.9% on July 24"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -9,
"invalidation_condition": "Two consecutive daily crude declines exceeding 3%",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Extreme extension and worst recent pullback rank imply high mean-reversion risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Weekly inventory data and Middle East headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Deep drawdown could snap back on strong AI capex commentary from mega-cap reports.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SMH -3.92% over 3 sessions, -11.45% prior 16s active",
"Micron fell 7.0% and Broadcom 2.7% on July 24",
"Volatility 50.44%, beta 3.20, -16.10% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -7,
"invalidation_condition": "Further leadership breakdown with SMH making new 52-week relative lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Broken trend, extreme beta, and tariff exposure make downside asymmetric.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Amazon capex guidance"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation at 3.5% and policy uncertainty support safe-haven bid.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +1.55% active 5s, +1.65% over 21 sessions",
"-24.95% from 52-week high",
"Beta to SPY 1.258, correlation 0.686"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "US dollar index extends gains while gold breaks recent range low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar up 0.88% over 5 sessions and hike odds raise real rates, pressuring gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and PCE July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls of 57,000 and soft core CPI could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -1.50% 5s and -4.37% 21s",
"10-year yield 4.68% versus 3.97% pre-war",
"38% implied probability of a July hike"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.85%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Energy-driven 3.5% headline inflation and hike risk keep yields elevated.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP and PCE July 30"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"cost_usd": 0.21979500000000002,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.31,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC hike on July 29 pressures all equity clusters simultaneously",
"Crude gives back its post-war premium, hitting the energy sleeve",
"Mega-cap earnings beats drive cap-weighted SPY ahead of defensive sectors",
"New tariff round dampens cyclical and consumer-linked earnings guidance"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC hike plus mega-cap earnings miss driving SPY below 7,250",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure into a heavy mega-cap earnings week with Q2 S&P earnings tracking +26.5%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29, Q2 GDP/PCE July 30, Microsoft/Amazon/Meta/Apple earnings"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by more than 1.5% mid-week or adverse drug-pricing policy news",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive, near-zero SPY beta, strong prior relative trend and shallow drawdown ahead of a rate-risk-heavy week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and PCE July 30 defensive rotation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply or regional-bank stress emerges",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive prior active return, low drawdown, benefits if FOMC signals higher-for-longer rates; low realized vol.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 28-29 rate decision and financial-sector earnings"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $88, extending the July 24 3.9% drop",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent near $96.78 versus $72 pre-war; sector has strong prior active return with negative SPY correlation for diversification.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings and post-Iran-war crude supply headlines before July 31"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.61,
"portfolio_rationale": "A barbell of benchmark core plus low-beta defensive and commodity/rate-levered sectors reduces exposure to a single hawkish-FOMC or mega-cap-earnings shock while retaining upside from strong Q2 earnings breadth.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY faces a two-sided week: 38% implied odds of a hike, fresh tariffs, and mega-cap reports, against very strong Q2 earnings growth. Diversifying into healthcare, financials, and energy — all with positive prior active returns, shallow drawdowns, and low SPY correlation — offers modest expected alpha with lower event risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.21979500000000002,
"input_tokens": 27199,
"latency_seconds": 48.324883124092594,
"output_tokens": 3352,
"total_tokens": 30551
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
This portfolio balances defensive positioning with targeted growth exposure ahead of a catalyst-heavy week. By allocating equally across Utilities, Financials, Communications, and Large Value, it captures potential upside from mega-cap earnings while hedging against FOMC-driven volatility. The strategy aims to outperform the broader market by avoiding the most overextended tech sectors.
An equal-weight allocation across four distinct sectors to navigate FOMC risks and mega-cap earnings.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad market resilience supported by strong aggregate Q2 earnings tracking 26.5% above a year earlier.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The S&P 500 closed at 7,411.98, down 0.6% for the week.",
"Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report during the week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp decline in mega-cap tech stocks dragging the index lower",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings misses or a hawkish FOMC statement triggering a broad market selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and major tech earnings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued defensive rotation and stable yields supporting utility valuations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLU returned 3.05% over the prior 3 weeks.",
"The FOMC maintained a 3.50%-3.75% federal-funds target range on June 17."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A hawkish surprise from the FOMC driving a sharp spike in Treasury yields",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish FOMC surprise driving yields higher and pressuring rate-sensitive sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting statement on July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "A stable or steepening yield curve supporting bank net interest margins.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF returned 0.36% over the prior 3 weeks.",
"Federal-funds futures late July 24 priced a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A dovish FOMC pivot causing a collapse in the yield curve",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "A dovish FOMC pivot causing a collapse in the yield curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and advance Q2 GDP release"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings reports from major constituents like Meta driving sector outperformance.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Meta is scheduled to report earnings during the week.",
"XLC has a quality evidence score of 0.729."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant earnings misses or weak forward guidance from mega-cap constituents",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "Earnings misses or weak forward guidance from mega-cap constituents.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Meta earnings report during the week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued rotation away from high-beta growth stocks into value-oriented equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD returned 0.32% over the prior 3 weeks.",
"IWD has a quality evidence score of 0.660."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden reversal back into high-beta growth stocks",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "A sudden resurgence in mega-cap tech growth reversing the recent value rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance Q2 GDP and PCE prices release on July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical tensions re-escalating and driving crude prices back above $100.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled at $96.78 per barrel, down 3.9% on July 24.",
"USO returned 10.27% over the prior 5 weeks."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden escalation in the Iran war driving crude prices sharply higher",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Continued easing of geopolitical risk premiums leading to further crude price declines.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments in the Middle East"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand increasing ahead of the FOMC meeting and GDP data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned -0.77% over the prior 3 weeks.",
"The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.68%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A dovish FOMC pivot driving real yields sharply lower",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish FOMC driving real yields higher and pressuring gold prices.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting statement on July 29"
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.45,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC surprise negatively impacting rate-sensitive sectors like Utilities.",
"Earnings misses from major Communications constituents dragging down the broader market.",
"A sudden resurgence in mega-cap tech growth reversing the recent value rotation."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "A hawkish surprise from the FOMC driving a sharp spike in Treasury yields",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Utilities offer defensive positioning ahead of the FOMC meeting and have shown strong recent relative performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting statement on July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A dovish FOMC pivot causing a collapse in the yield curve",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials benefit from a potential steepening yield curve and have demonstrated positive recent active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and advance Q2 GDP release"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant earnings misses or weak forward guidance from mega-cap constituents",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "Communications holds high quality evidence scores and is positioned for major mega-cap earnings reports.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Meta earnings report during the week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden reversal back into high-beta growth stocks",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Large value provides a rotation target away from tech while maintaining broad equity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance Q2 GDP and PCE prices release on July 30"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.95,
"portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio balances defensive positioning with targeted growth exposure ahead of a catalyst-heavy week. By allocating equally across Utilities, Financials, Communications, and Large Value, it captures potential upside from mega-cap earnings while hedging against FOMC-driven volatility. The strategy aims to outperform the broader market by avoiding the most overextended tech sectors.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "An equal-weight allocation across four distinct sectors to navigate FOMC risks and mega-cap earnings.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16901,
"latency_seconds": 33.80509873921983,
"output_tokens": 2244,
"reasoning_tokens": 2573,
"total_tokens": 21718
}
}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio tilts toward sectors and equal-weight exposure with positive relative performance and lower mega-cap growth dependence into a dense macro and earnings week. It avoids concentrated technology where Nasdaq and growth segments had recent weakness and larger drawdowns.
Selected holdings all have base forecasts above SPY and span diversified US equity, healthcare, financials, energy, and rate-sensitive defensive clusters. The expected edge comes from breadth, defensive balance, and sector-specific momentum into FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and major earnings.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings growth and major company reports can keep the broad index supported despite a flat entry-day close.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed up less than 0.1% on July 24 and down 0.6% for the week.",
"Reuters reported aggregate Q2 S&P 500 earnings tracking 26.5% above a year earlier from more than 80 reported companies.",
"Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies were scheduled to report during the week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below the recent 21-session drawdown area or earnings breadth deteriorates sharply during the week.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Fresh tariff uncertainty, FOMC hike risk, or weak GDP/PCE data could pressure broad equities after recent year-to-date gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC on July 28-29, Q2 GDP and PCE on July 30, ECI on July 31, and major S&P 500 earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving breadth and lower mega-cap concentration can persist if earnings support a wider set of sectors.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP active return was 0.68% over 5 sessions and 0.74% over 21 sessions versus SPY.",
"RSP 21-session volatility was 9.87%, lower than SPY at 11.37%.",
"More S&P 500 constituents rose than fell on July 24."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 0.75 percentage point early in the week or mega-cap earnings dominate market breadth.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Apple could drive cap-weighted SPY ahead of equal weight.",
"time_window_catalyst": "One-third of S&P 500 earnings plus GDP/PCE and FOMC can reward broader cyclicals if results are not concentrated in mega-cap growth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative trend and defensive, low-beta behavior can continue if macro or tariff uncertainty weighs on broader risk appetite.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare active return was 1.51% over 5 sessions and prior 16-session active return was 3.68%.",
"Healthcare had a high prior active rank of 0.896 in the quality evidence table.",
"Healthcare 63-session beta to SPY was -0.186 and correlation was -0.133."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare falls below recent relative support or underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point after early-week macro data.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "If risk appetite strengthens after FOMC and earnings, defensive sectors may lag higher-beta SPY exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Large S&P 500 earnings week and macro releases may favor defensive sectors if growth or rate uncertainty weighs on cyclicals and growth stocks."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent and prior relative strength can persist if yields remain firm and economic data avoid a growth scare.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials active return was 0.68% over 5 sessions and prior 16-session active return was 3.36%.",
"Financials quality evidence score was 0.689 with prior active rank 0.866.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, and FOMC futures priced a 38% chance of a July hike."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp Treasury-yield decline with weak growth data or sector underperformance exceeding 1 percentage point versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "A dovish yield decline or weak credit/growth signal could hurt banks and financials relative to SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC meeting, Q2 GDP, PCE, and Employment Cost Index can support the sector if rates and growth expectations remain constructive."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Energy equities may retain support from high crude levels, gasoline inflation, and geopolitical energy-risk uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy active return was 3.95% over 5 sessions and prior 16-session active return was 6.30%.",
"Brent crude settled at $96.78, still far above the near-$72 level before the late-February Iran war.",
"Energy prior active rank was 0.925 in the quality evidence table."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent or oil-linked ETFs extend the July 24 reversal materially, or ENERGY underperforms SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Brent fell 3.9% on July 24, showing near-term reversal risk after a sharp oil rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings and continued attention to oil, gasoline, and energy-shock uncertainty before July 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive and rate-sensitive flows can persist if yields ease or macro events increase risk aversion.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Utilities active return was 3.07% over 5 sessions with 3.05% return over the latest 3 sessions.",
"Utilities 63-session beta to SPY was -0.089 and correlation was -0.068.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.68% from 4.71% late July 23."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield resumes rising materially after FOMC or utilities underperform SPY by more than 1 percentage point.",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish FOMC or stronger growth/inflation data could push yields higher and reverse utilities strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, PCE, and ECI releases can support rate-sensitive defensives if yields decline or equity risk appetite softens."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity strength could persist if energy shock and tariff pass-through concerns lift inflation-hedge demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Broad commodities active return was 4.64% over 5 sessions and prior 16-session active return was 7.94%.",
"Broad commodities prior active rank was 0.955.",
"Brent crude fell 3.9% on July 24 after settling above $100 on July 23."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Commodity prices continue the July 24 oil-led reversal or PDBC underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point.",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"reversal_case": "The sharp July 24 crude reversal could spill into broad commodity exposure after extended gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Energy-price reaction, tariff pass-through debate, PCE inflation, and euro-area flash inflation before July 31."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like stability should continue regardless of equity volatility, with minimal duration risk into FOMC.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury 21-session volatility was 0.24% with max drawdown of -0.01%.",
"Short Treasury quality evidence score was 0.622, helped by low volatility and shallow drawdown ranks of 1.000.",
"FOMC futures priced a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the July 28-29 meeting."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.07,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.02,
"invalidation_condition": "A broad equity rally lifts SPY more than roughly 0.5 percentage point while bills remain near flat.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Its low return potential is unlikely to beat SPY if equities rally on earnings or dovish macro outcomes.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC meeting; otherwise no strong return catalyst identified."
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.35,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap technology earnings lead SPY sharply higher and reverse recent breadth improvement.",
"FOMC communication or inflation data pushes yields higher, hurting utilities and defensive equities.",
"Oil continues the July 24 reversal, pressuring energy exposure.",
"Tariff pass-through concerns or weak GDP data trigger broad risk-off selling across equities."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 0.75 percentage point early in the week or mega-cap earnings dominate market breadth.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth was better than cap-weighted SPY, with RSP outperforming over 5 and 21 sessions and lower 21-session volatility than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "One-third of S&P 500 earnings plus GDP/PCE and FOMC can reward broader cyclicals if results are not concentrated in mega-cap growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare falls below recent relative support or underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point after early-week macro data.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare has positive recent active return, strong prior active return, and low beta/correlation to SPY, offering defensive alpha potential into a catalyst-heavy week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Large S&P 500 earnings week and macro releases may favor defensive sectors if growth or rate uncertainty weighs on cyclicals and growth stocks."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp Treasury-yield decline with weak growth data or sector underperformance exceeding 1 percentage point versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials show strong prior active return, positive 5-session active return, and high quality evidence, with FOMC and economic data as near-term catalysts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC meeting, Q2 GDP, PCE, and Employment Cost Index can support the sector if rates and growth expectations remain constructive."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent or oil-linked ETFs extend the July 24 reversal materially, or ENERGY underperforms SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy retains strong prior and recent active return and is supported by oil-price levels still well above pre-war levels despite the latest pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Chevron earnings and continued attention to oil, gasoline, and energy-shock uncertainty before July 31."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield resumes rising materially after FOMC or utilities underperform SPY by more than 1 percentage point.",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "Utilities had the strongest recent defensive sector active move with low market beta, useful if FOMC and growth data trigger risk reduction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, PCE, and ECI releases can support rate-sensitive defensives if yields decline or equity risk appetite softens."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts toward sectors and equal-weight exposure with positive relative performance and lower mega-cap growth dependence into a dense macro and earnings week. It avoids concentrated technology where Nasdaq and growth segments had recent weakness and larger drawdowns.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings all have base forecasts above SPY and span diversified US equity, healthcare, financials, energy, and rate-sensitive defensive clusters. The expected edge comes from breadth, defensive balance, and sector-specific momentum into FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and major earnings.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15275,
"latency_seconds": 33.968414802104235,
"output_tokens": 2918,
"reasoning_tokens": 264,
"total_tokens": 18193
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines two earnings-sensitive rebound candidates with established healthcare and financial leadership and a low-correlation agriculture sleeve. Technology-and-growth exposure totals 45%, below the 50% cluster cap.
Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY's 0.4% forecast. The weighted base return is 0.9775%, implying 0.5775 percentage point of expected alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Strong aggregate earnings and broader market breadth could offset tariff and rate uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY fell 0.59% over the latest five sessions and was 2.47% below its 52-week high.",
"Reported S&P 500 earnings were tracking 26.5% above a year earlier.",
"Roughly one-third of constituents were scheduled to report during the scoring week."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The index breaks its recent drawdown range after earnings and the FOMC while market breadth deteriorates.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "A hawkish FOMC outcome, weak mega-cap results, or tariff-driven inflation concerns could extend the weekly decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Major-company earnings, the July 29 FOMC decision, and July 30 GDP and PCE releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The positive prior relative trend can resume if major platform earnings validate fundamentals after the pullback.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.729, including a 0.940 recent-pullback rank.",
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 2.49%.",
"The latest five-session active return was negative 3.34%, creating a sharp pullback."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The holding underperforms SPY after major platform earnings or its July 24 low fails amid rising yields.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"reversal_case": "High volatility and disappointing platform earnings could turn the pullback into a deeper drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Meta earnings and other large-platform results during the scoring week."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior leadership can reassert itself if large software earnings withstand rate and tariff concerns.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.769, with prior-trend and pullback ranks of 0.940 and 0.985.",
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 6.32%.",
"Recent five-session active return was negative 4.61%, while 21-session volatility was 27.76%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.05,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Software continues underperforming SPY after Microsoft earnings or the 10-year yield rises materially above 4.68%.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "The recent selloff may reflect an enduring valuation reset, especially if yields rise after the FOMC.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and other technology earnings during the week, plus the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent relative strength and defensive demand can continue through a macro- and earnings-heavy week.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 3.68%, and recent five-session active return was positive 1.51%.",
"Healthcare gained 1.45% over the final three sessions.",
"Its prior-active rank was 0.896."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses its prior relative trend and underperforms SPY through the post-FOMC session.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A strong risk-on response to earnings could rotate capital back toward higher-beta benchmark sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The heavy S&P 500 earnings calendar and July 30 GDP and PCE releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative leadership can persist if earnings, GDP, and the FOMC preserve a favorable nominal-growth and rate backdrop.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 3.36%, with a 0.866 prior-active rank.",
"Recent five-session active return was positive 0.68%.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.689 and the holding was only 0.78% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp curve flattening, weak GDP, or sustained post-FOMC underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak growth data, credit concerns, or abrupt curve flattening could reverse the trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Visa earnings, the July 29 FOMC decision, and July 30 GDP and PCE data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The established relative trend and low equity sensitivity can persist amid tariff and inflation uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 3.45%, and recent five-session active return was positive 2.02%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.613, including a 0.851 shallow-drawdown rank.",
"Its 63-session SPY correlation and beta were both 0.029."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture loses its recent relative strength and closes below its recent 21-session drawdown range.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "Commodity mean reversion or easing inflation concerns could erase recent gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 PCE inflation data and market assessment of tariff-related price pressures."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A hawkish FOMC decision, tariffs, or risk aversion could extend the recent dollar advance.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The dollar gained 0.88% over five sessions and had a positive 1.47% active return.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 4.46% and maximum drawdown was 0.98%.",
"Prior 16-session active return was negative 2.07%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "The dollar reverses its five-session gain after the FOMC while Treasury yields decline.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Soft inflation or growth data and a non-hawkish FOMC could restore the prior weakening trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision and July 30 GDP and PCE releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak GDP, benign PCE inflation, or a dovish FOMC could drive a rebound from the deep pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.68%, down from 4.71% the prior day.",
"Long Treasuries had a negative 4.29% prior active return and negative 0.92% recent active return.",
"The recent-pullback rank was 0.851, but the prior-active rank was only 0.134."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year yield rises decisively above 4.71% after the FOMC or inflation data.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "A rate increase or renewed tariff-driven inflation fears could extend the duration selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The July 29 FOMC decision and July 30 GDP and PCE releases."
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.5775,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC decision or rate increase could pressure software and communication-services valuations.",
"Mega-cap earnings disappointments could overwhelm the anticipated rebound in growth exposures.",
"Tariff escalation could lift inflation expectations, weaken risk appetite, and raise Treasury yields.",
"The recent defensive and value rotation could reverse abruptly in favor of benchmark mega-caps."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "The holding underperforms SPY after major platform earnings or its July 24 low fails amid rising yields.",
"option_id": "COMMUNICATIONS",
"rationale": "High quality-evidence score, an established prior relative trend, and a sharp pullback create rebound potential around major platform earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Meta earnings and other large-platform results during the scoring week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.05,
"invalidation_condition": "Software continues underperforming SPY after Microsoft earnings or the 10-year yield rises materially above 4.68%.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "The universe-leading combination of prior relative strength and recent pullback supports a tactical earnings-week rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and other technology earnings during the week, plus the July 29 FOMC decision."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses its prior relative trend and underperforms SPY through the post-FOMC session.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Persistent relative strength and defensive exposure provide a less rate-sensitive complement to the growth holdings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The heavy S&P 500 earnings calendar and July 30 GDP and PCE releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp curve flattening, weak GDP, or sustained post-FOMC underperformance versus SPY.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative performance, solid quality evidence, and multiple rate and growth catalysts support continued leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Visa earnings, the July 29 FOMC decision, and July 30 GDP and PCE data."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture loses its recent relative strength and closes below its recent 21-session drawdown range.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "Positive prior and recent active returns, shallow drawdown, and near-zero SPY correlation diversify event-driven equity exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 PCE inflation data and market assessment of tariff-related price pressures."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.9775,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines two earnings-sensitive rebound candidates with established healthcare and financial leadership and a low-correlation agriculture sleeve. Technology-and-growth exposure totals 45%, below the 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY's 0.4% forecast. The weighted base return is 0.9775%, implying 0.5775 percentage point of expected alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15277,
"latency_seconds": 48.55247615999542,
"output_tokens": 3535,
"reasoning_tokens": 1228,
"total_tokens": 18812
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of benchmark with three higher-base sectors to capture modest alpha from value, energy, and defensive exposure over one week.
SPY base 0.5; selected holdings exceed it with 20% each in energy, financials, healthcare for weighted 0.78 expected return.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Stable equity breadth supports modest gains into FOMC",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed at 7411.98 down 0.6% for the week",
"More S&P constituents rose than fell on July 24"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on July 31",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payroll revisions and tariff news trigger selloff",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical support and inventory data sustain prices",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active return 3.95% over 5 days",
"Brent settled at 96.78 after prior 100.69"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below 90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand concerns from weak retail sales accelerate drop",
"time_window_catalyst": "June advance economic indicators July 28"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate stability and earnings growth favor banks",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF prior active rank 0.866",
"Average hourly earnings rose 3.5% YoY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.80",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield curve steepening pressures margins",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues into earnings season",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV prior active rank 0.896",
"Core CPI rose only 2.6% YoY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV closes below prior week low",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Drug pricing pressure from policy headlines",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value outperformance persists on rate stability",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IWD prior active rank 0.701",
"Russell 2000 YTD up 18.1%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by more than 1% in window",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound on AI earnings beats",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-sensitive defensive flows continue",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLU recent active return 3.07%",
"10-year yield ended at 4.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLU closes below 1-week low",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"reversal_case": "FOMC signals higher for longer",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash proxy holds value in risk-off",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"BIL low volatility rank 1.000",
"Initial claims fell to 187000"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.1,
"invalidation_condition": "BIL yield falls below 4.0%",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally reduces demand for bills",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.28,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC outcome volatility on July 29",
"Tariff implementation uncertainty",
"Oil price reversal after sharp drop"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7300 on July 31",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad market exposure with neutral base case amid mixed macro data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude falls below 90",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent active returns and commodity price support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "June advance economic indicators July 28"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.80",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Value tilt with positive prior active rank and earnings momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV closes below prior week low",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with highest prior active rank and low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance Q2 GDP July 30"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.78,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of benchmark with three higher-base sectors to capture modest alpha from value, energy, and defensive exposure over one week.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base 0.5; selected holdings exceed it with 20% each in energy, financials, healthcare for weighted 0.78 expected return.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15505,
"latency_seconds": 20.74715212220326,
"output_tokens": 1593,
"reasoning_tokens": 653,
"total_tokens": 17751
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in energy, aerospace-defense, healthcare and large-value clusters that show superior recent active returns, shallower relative drawdowns or defensive traits versus SPY, while respecting the 50% cluster cap. All selected bases exceed the SPY base forecast to target positive expected alpha over the one-week window containing FOMC and GDP.
SPY base is modest given recent weekly decline and event risk; higher-base alternatives in energy and cyclicals/defensives are favored for the short horizon. Allocations stay diversified across four clusters and sum to 100%.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Earnings beats and stable FOMC keep modest positive drift",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY return_5s -0.59% and return_3s -1.25%",
"S&P 500 closed down 0.6% for the week with FOMC and GDP scheduled",
"Roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies report in the window"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes the week below -2% on risk-off",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hotter inflation data or tariff concerns trigger further weekly decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC statement/presser and July 30 GDP/PCE"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium and still-elevated crude support further relative gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active_return_5s +3.95% and prior_16s_active_return +6.30%",
"Brent settled 96.78 after prior spike near 100 and war-related premium",
"Energy quality evidence score 0.573 with high prior active rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent closes week under 90 or XLE active return turns deeply negative",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Continued single-day style crude selloff extends and erodes sector premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC/GDP week oil volatility and any supply headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum and defense spending narrative persist through event week",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ITA return_3s +4.53% and active_return_5s +4.66%",
"Strong outperformance versus SPY in recent sessions",
"Industrials-and-defense cluster with geopolitical backdrop"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.95,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "ITA retraces majority of 3-session gain",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"reversal_case": "Profit-taking after sharp 3-day run or broad equity selloff",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical premium maintenance around policy meetings"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid into FOMC and data releases sustains outperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV active_return_5s +1.51% and prior_16s_active_return +3.68%",
"Healthcare quality evidence score 0.570 with high prior rank",
"Defensive sector characteristics amid event risk"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by >1.5% on growth rebound",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back into growth/tech post-earnings",
"time_window_catalyst": "Potential defensive flows around July 29-30 data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value and equal-weight preference continues if mega-caps lag",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IWD active_return_5s +0.67% and prior_16s_active +1.55%",
"Quality evidence score 0.660 with high shallow-drawdown rank",
"Distance to 52w high only -0.49%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD lags SPY materially on tech-led rally",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Strong Nasdaq/tech earnings reverse value leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings reports and any value rotation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Residual geopolitical premium keeps crude elevated",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"USO return_3s +6.08% and active_return_5s +10.86%",
"Brent down 3.9% on July 24 after multi-day strength",
"High volatility_21s 47.91%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "USO gives back majority of 5-session gain",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Extension of July 24 crude selloff dominates the week",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inventory or geopolitical headlines before July 31"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable or higher yields support net interest and financials",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLF active_return_5s +0.68% and prior_16s_active +3.36%",
"Quality evidence score 0.689",
"10-year yield at 4.68% with FOMC imminent"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms on falling yields or risk-off",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Dovish FOMC surprise or credit concerns hit banks",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC decision and any yield-curve reaction"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid if equity volatility rises around data",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU active_return_5s +1.55%",
"Gold distance_52w_high -24.95% after prior moves",
"Real-rate and dollar sensitivity into FOMC"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU falls on hawkish FOMC or USD strength",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields or stronger dollar pressure gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and PCE inflation reading"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.6125,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp post-FOMC equity rally favoring mega-cap growth/tech would reverse relative value and energy leadership",
"Further crude oil decline below recent settlement could pressure ENERGY allocation",
"Tariff pass-through or hotter PCE could lift yields and hit rate-sensitive and cyclical names",
"Concentrated earnings misses from large reporters could drive broad risk-off"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent settles below 90 or XLE underperforms SPY by more than 2% intraday on risk-off",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Elevated oil price level and energy sector relative strength support higher base return than SPY into FOMC and GDP week despite single-day crude pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 28-29 FOMC and July 30 GDP/PCE plus ongoing energy-price volatility from prior Iran-war shock"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.95,
"invalidation_condition": "ITA gives back more than half of its 3-session gain or broad equity risk-off exceeds 1.5%",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Strong 3-session outperformance and defense budget/geopolitical backdrop give higher expected weekly return than benchmark.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical premium and any defense-related commentary around FOMC week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV breaks below recent lows on rising yields or broad growth rebound",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive active returns, defensive characteristics, and quality score support outperformance versus SPY base case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation potential around FOMC decision and PCE data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "IWD lags SPY on strong Nasdaq rebound post-earnings",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leadership, shallow drawdown, and higher quality evidence score imply modest edge over cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Equal-weight/value preference if mega-cap earnings disappoint or rates stabilize"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.8625,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in energy, aerospace-defense, healthcare and large-value clusters that show superior recent active returns, shallower relative drawdowns or defensive traits versus SPY, while respecting the 50% cluster cap. All selected bases exceed the SPY base forecast to target positive expected alpha over the one-week window containing FOMC and GDP.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest given recent weekly decline and event risk; higher-base alternatives in energy and cyclicals/defensives are favored for the short horizon. Allocations stay diversified across four clusters and sum to 100%.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-24-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16361,
"latency_seconds": 57.43156271404587,
"output_tokens": 2566,
"reasoning_tokens": 668,
"total_tokens": 19595
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Energy Sector (XLE)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Utilities Sector (XLU)10% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Industrials Sector (XLI)35%Financials Sector (XLF)30%S&P 500 (SPY)35% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Energy Sector (XLE)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Utilities Sector (XLU)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Communication Services Sector (XLC)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Utilities Sector (XLU)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Communication Services Sector (XLC)25%Software (IGV)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)15% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-24 | 240.14 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-24 | 93.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-24 | 28.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-24 | 28.72 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-24 | 114.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-24 | 150.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-24 | 36.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-24 | 35.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-24 | 57.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-24 | 17.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-24 | 59.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-24 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-24 | 53.33 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-24 | 106.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-24 | 109.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-24 | 84.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-24 | 38.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-24 | 136.69 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-24 | 88.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-24 | 69.71 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-24 | 94.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-24 | 57.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-24 | 59.62 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-24 | 213.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-24 | 14.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-24 | 104.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-24 | 88.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-24 | 56.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-24 | 76.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-24 | 162.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-24 | 79.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-24 | 48.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-24 | 182.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-24 | 93.03 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-24 | 47.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-24 | 106.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-24 | 91.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-24 | 56.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-24 | 83.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-24 | 51.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-24 | 101.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-24 | 75.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-24 | 105.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-24 | 684.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-24 | 45.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-24 | 75.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-24 | 738.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-24 | 561.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-24 | 91.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-24 | 52.59 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-24 | 87.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-24 | 51.28 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-24 | 61.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-24 | 162.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-24 | 98.01 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-24 | 175.88 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-24 | 364.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-24 | 107.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-24 | 47.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-24 | 97.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-24 | 33.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-24 | 28.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-24 | 117.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-24 | 248.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-24 | 77.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-24 | 75.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-24 | 306.39 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-24 | 291.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-24 | 221.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-24 | 46.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 46c5f9e6572e...b08d2177 |
| manifest.yaml | 981e8a7fb137...d4737955 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 9c6efe62689f...0af3d058 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 759af6de5c97...2ffd98b2 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | dfa52f7c9679...5911fdf4 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | bd97ad9b9b57...5e1af464 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | ffd6df9cde7a...489ba31b |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 09fc4f5422bf...02d5a202 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |