Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 68.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-08 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260830-weekly
34,316 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-30
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-30T20:32:22Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-31T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-31
- Exit date: 2026-09-08
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing — 2026-08-30
Research cutoff: 2026-08-30T20:32:22Z
Latest completed U.S. trading session: 2026-08-28
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Latest U.S. session
- On August 28, the S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, down 0.2%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,559.99, down less than 0.1%; the Nasdaq composite closed at 26,402.42, down 0.5%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,972.37, down 1.4%.
- Weekly changes were +0.5% for the S&P 500, +0.5% for the Dow, +0.8% for the Nasdaq, and -1.5% for the Russell 2000.
- Year-to-date changes through August 28 were +12.7%, +11.4%, +13.6%, and +19.8%, respectively.
## Rates and monetary policy
- Official Treasury par-yield estimates for August 28 were 3.84% at 1 month, 3.90% at 3 months, 4.02% at 6 months, 4.15% at 1 year, 4.34% at 2 years, 4.48% at 5 years, 4.73% at 10 years, 5.21% at 20 years, and 5.22% at 30 years.
- On August 27, the 2-, 10-, and 30-year par-yield estimates were 4.20%, 4.67%, and 5.19%.
- Official August 28 real-yield estimates were 2.18% at 5 years, 2.42% at 10 years, and 2.96% at 30 years.
- In an August 28 speech, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the 2% PCE inflation objective is firm and fixed, described output as solid and labor markets as consistent with full employment, and said inflation remained too high.
- The Chair's speech cited unemployment at 4.1%, 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7%, six-month annualized PCE inflation at 4.1%, roughly 9% four-quarter growth in business capital expenditure, and stable medium-term inflation expectations.
- The July 28–29 FOMC meeting left the target range unchanged. The minutes recorded three dissents in favor of a 25-basis-point increase.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and includes a Summary of Economic Projections. The September 16 statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. EDT and the press conference for 2:30 p.m. EDT.
## U.S. growth, income, spending, and inflation
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter.
- Second-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 4.2% annual rate; real GDI rose at a 2.2% rate.
- The second-quarter gross domestic purchases price index rose at a 5.8% annual rate. The PCE price index rose at a 5.3% rate and the index excluding food and energy at a 3.6% rate.
- Corporate profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion in the second quarter after increasing $74.4 billion in the first quarter.
- In July, personal income rose 0.4% month over month, disposable personal income rose 0.5%, and nominal personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%.
- July real disposable income rose 0.4%, while real personal consumption expenditures changed by less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
- July CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Shelter rose 0.1%, food rose 0.1%, and energy fell 1.5% during July.
- July PPI for final demand was unchanged month over month and rose 4.7% year over year. Final-demand services rose 0.2% for the month and final-demand goods fell 0.7%.
## U.S. labor, production, retail, trade, and housing
- July nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Revisions reduced the combined May and June payroll change by 103,000.
- In June, job openings were 7.4 million, hires were 5.3 million, total separations were 5.4 million, quits were 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges were 1.8 million.
- A preliminary BLS benchmark estimate published August 28 would revise March 2026 total nonfarm employment down by 79,000, or 0.1%, and private employment down by 178,000, or 0.1%. These benchmark figures have not yet replaced the monthly payroll series.
- July industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2%. Total industrial production was 1.1% above its year-earlier level, and total capacity utilization was 76.3%.
- Advance July retail and food-services sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% month over month and up 5.0% year over year. These figures are not adjusted for price changes.
- The advance July goods deficit was $118.8 billion, up $17.4 billion from June. Exports fell $6.0 billion to $199.4 billion and imports rose $11.4 billion to $318.2 billion.
- Advance July wholesale inventories rose 1.3% month over month, while advance retail inventories rose 0.7%.
- July housing starts were at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from revised June. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0%.
## Energy and international datapoints
- Total U.S. crude-oil and petroleum-product stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 1.245362 billion barrels for the week ending August 21, compared with 1.245302 billion a week earlier.
- EIA corrected its August 26 summary to state that distillate inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels; the underlying data tables had contained the correct direction.
- Euro-area GDP rose 0.4% quarter over quarter and 1.0% year over year in the second quarter. Euro-area employment rose 0.1% quarter over quarter and 0.5% year over year.
- Estimated euro-area inflation was 2.9% in July, including 10.0% for energy, 3.3% for services, 1.2% for food, alcohol and tobacco, and 0.9% for non-energy industrial goods.
- The ECB kept its three key policy rates unchanged on July 23 and reaffirmed its 2% medium-term inflation objective.
- China's July industrial value added rose 4.5% year over year and 0.11% month over month. July retail sales rose 0.6% year over year, and January–July retail sales rose 1.2%.
## Company-reported datapoint
- NVIDIA reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% year over year; Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 18% sequentially and 117% year over year.
- NVIDIA reported a 75.0% GAAP gross margin and $2.46 diluted GAAP earnings per share.
- NVIDIA's company outlook stated fiscal third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and assumed no Data Center compute revenue from China.
## Scheduled events within the evaluation windows
- September 1: July JOLTS and July construction spending.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book and EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- September 3: July U.S. international trade and revised second-quarter productivity and costs.
- September 4: August employment report.
- September 7: Labor Day; NYSE markets are closed.
- September 8: July consumer credit.
- September 10: August PPI.
- September 11: August CPI and real earnings.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting, with policy statement, projections, and press conference on September 16.
- September 16: August retail sales.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits.
- September 18: August industrial production and capacity utilization.
- September 24: second-quarter U.S. international transactions and investment position.
- September 25: advance August durable goods.
- September 29: August JOLTS.
- September 30: third-estimate second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, annual national-account revisions, and August personal income and outlays.
All figures reflect information public by the research cutoff. Advance, preliminary, estimated, revised, and company-outlook figures remain subject to their publishers' later updates.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-30-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-30'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-31T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-30T20:35:03.834451+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-31'
exit_date: '2026-09-08'
created_at: '2026-08-30T20:35:03.834451+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh August 30, 2026 public-web research; no prior input report reused. Latest completed U.S. session: August 28, 2026. Weekly exit moves to September 8 because NYSE markets are closed for Labor Day on September 7.'# CapitalBench Fixed-Fact Briefing — 2026-08-30
Research cutoff: 2026-08-30T20:32:22Z
Latest completed U.S. trading session: 2026-08-28
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Latest U.S. session
- On August 28, the S&P 500 closed at 7,711.76, down 0.2%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,559.99, down less than 0.1%; the Nasdaq composite closed at 26,402.42, down 0.5%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,972.37, down 1.4%.
- Weekly changes were +0.5% for the S&P 500, +0.5% for the Dow, +0.8% for the Nasdaq, and -1.5% for the Russell 2000.
- Year-to-date changes through August 28 were +12.7%, +11.4%, +13.6%, and +19.8%, respectively.
## Rates and monetary policy
- Official Treasury par-yield estimates for August 28 were 3.84% at 1 month, 3.90% at 3 months, 4.02% at 6 months, 4.15% at 1 year, 4.34% at 2 years, 4.48% at 5 years, 4.73% at 10 years, 5.21% at 20 years, and 5.22% at 30 years.
- On August 27, the 2-, 10-, and 30-year par-yield estimates were 4.20%, 4.67%, and 5.19%.
- Official August 28 real-yield estimates were 2.18% at 5 years, 2.42% at 10 years, and 2.96% at 30 years.
- In an August 28 speech, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh said the 2% PCE inflation objective is firm and fixed, described output as solid and labor markets as consistent with full employment, and said inflation remained too high.
- The Chair's speech cited unemployment at 4.1%, 12-month PCE inflation at 3.7%, six-month annualized PCE inflation at 4.1%, roughly 9% four-quarter growth in business capital expenditure, and stable medium-term inflation expectations.
- The July 28–29 FOMC meeting left the target range unchanged. The minutes recorded three dissents in favor of a 25-basis-point increase.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and includes a Summary of Economic Projections. The September 16 statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. EDT and the press conference for 2:30 p.m. EDT.
## U.S. growth, income, spending, and inflation
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter.
- Second-quarter real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 4.2% annual rate; real GDI rose at a 2.2% rate.
- The second-quarter gross domestic purchases price index rose at a 5.8% annual rate. The PCE price index rose at a 5.3% rate and the index excluding food and energy at a 3.6% rate.
- Corporate profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion in the second quarter after increasing $74.4 billion in the first quarter.
- In July, personal income rose 0.4% month over month, disposable personal income rose 0.5%, and nominal personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%.
- July real disposable income rose 0.4%, while real personal consumption expenditures changed by less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.2% and 3.3%, respectively.
- July CPI rose 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Core CPI rose 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Shelter rose 0.1%, food rose 0.1%, and energy fell 1.5% during July.
- July PPI for final demand was unchanged month over month and rose 4.7% year over year. Final-demand services rose 0.2% for the month and final-demand goods fell 0.7%.
## U.S. labor, production, retail, trade, and housing
- July nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. Revisions reduced the combined May and June payroll change by 103,000.
- In June, job openings were 7.4 million, hires were 5.3 million, total separations were 5.4 million, quits were 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges were 1.8 million.
- A preliminary BLS benchmark estimate published August 28 would revise March 2026 total nonfarm employment down by 79,000, or 0.1%, and private employment down by 178,000, or 0.1%. These benchmark figures have not yet replaced the monthly payroll series.
- July industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2%. Total industrial production was 1.1% above its year-earlier level, and total capacity utilization was 76.3%.
- Advance July retail and food-services sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% month over month and up 5.0% year over year. These figures are not adjusted for price changes.
- The advance July goods deficit was $118.8 billion, up $17.4 billion from June. Exports fell $6.0 billion to $199.4 billion and imports rose $11.4 billion to $318.2 billion.
- Advance July wholesale inventories rose 1.3% month over month, while advance retail inventories rose 0.7%.
- July housing starts were at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from revised June. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0%.
## Energy and international datapoints
- Total U.S. crude-oil and petroleum-product stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 1.245362 billion barrels for the week ending August 21, compared with 1.245302 billion a week earlier.
- EIA corrected its August 26 summary to state that distillate inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels; the underlying data tables had contained the correct direction.
- Euro-area GDP rose 0.4% quarter over quarter and 1.0% year over year in the second quarter. Euro-area employment rose 0.1% quarter over quarter and 0.5% year over year.
- Estimated euro-area inflation was 2.9% in July, including 10.0% for energy, 3.3% for services, 1.2% for food, alcohol and tobacco, and 0.9% for non-energy industrial goods.
- The ECB kept its three key policy rates unchanged on July 23 and reaffirmed its 2% medium-term inflation objective.
- China's July industrial value added rose 4.5% year over year and 0.11% month over month. July retail sales rose 0.6% year over year, and January–July retail sales rose 1.2%.
## Company-reported datapoint
- NVIDIA reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% year over year; Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 18% sequentially and 117% year over year.
- NVIDIA reported a 75.0% GAAP gross margin and $2.46 diluted GAAP earnings per share.
- NVIDIA's company outlook stated fiscal third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and assumed no Data Center compute revenue from China.
## Scheduled events within the evaluation windows
- September 1: July JOLTS and July construction spending.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book and EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- September 3: July U.S. international trade and revised second-quarter productivity and costs.
- September 4: August employment report.
- September 7: Labor Day; NYSE markets are closed.
- September 8: July consumer credit.
- September 10: August PPI.
- September 11: August CPI and real earnings.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting, with policy statement, projections, and press conference on September 16.
- September 16: August retail sales.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits.
- September 18: August industrial production and capacity utilization.
- September 24: second-quarter U.S. international transactions and investment position.
- September 25: advance August durable goods.
- September 29: August JOLTS.
- September 30: third-estimate second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, annual national-account revisions, and August personal income and outlays.
All figures reflect information public by the research cutoff. Advance, preliminary, estimated, revised, and company-outlook figures remain subject to their publishers' later updates.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-30-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Precious metals (silver, gold) and metals-linked South Africa combine strong prior relative trends with sharp one-week pullbacks unaccompanied by fundamental deterioration — classic overreaction setups. Sticky inflation with softening labor data ahead of the September 4 payroll report skews dollar/rate risk in their favor. Momentum-extended software/cyber and directionless crypto lack an entry edge.
SPY grinds higher but breadth is weak (RSP lagging, only 41% of assets positive over 5 sessions). Inflation remains sticky (PCE 3.7%, six-month annualized 4.1%) with a hawkish Fed chair, which supports real-asset trends. Precious metals had strong prior-window active returns (+9% to +14%) and pulled back sharply last week with no fundamental change, making them the best-tested overreaction candidates ahead of a payrolls week that could pressure the dollar.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Strong August payrolls could lift the dollar and real yields, extending the metals pullback",
"High-volatility candidates (silver 39%, EZA 30%) can produce large adverse excess returns in a week",
"Hawkish Fed communication ahead of the Sep 15-16 FOMC may pressure non-yielding assets",
"South Africa carries idiosyncratic currency and power-supply risk uncorrelated to the metals thesis"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
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{
"evidence": [
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"Highest quality evidence score in universe (0.773)",
"Sticky inflation (PCE 3.7%) and payroll weakness support precious metals"
],
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},
{
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"IAU still +8.43% over 21 sessions despite pullback",
"Hawkish rhetoric but weakening labor data (payrolls -23k) supports safe-haven demand"
],
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},
{
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"Resource-heavy market tracks precious metals rebound thesis"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
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"rank": 3,
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},
{
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"Elevated volume z 0.87 without clear catalyst"
],
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},
{
"evidence": [
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"Recent pullback rank 0.000 signals maximal extension"
],
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},
{
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"Volume z 1.17 elevated; direction ambiguous"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
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],
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},
{
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"Low 11% vol limits both upside and downside"
],
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"mechanism": "catalyst",
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"rank": 7,
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},
{
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],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +3.55% then -2.46%; low-volume pullback (z -1.54)",
"Defensive with low beta -0.20; weak conviction on rebound timing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.60% week but lowest quality score (0.360) and -9.5% drawdown",
"Extended near 52w high after spike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +6.94% then -3.07%; high beta 2.37 amplifies market moves",
"Weak volume z -1.14 gives no confirmation of dip-buying"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
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],
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"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"46% vol, -11% drawdown; flat inventories week-over-week",
"Recent -4.14% active but no clear supply catalyst before exit"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
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"SILVER": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
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"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
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"selected": true
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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},
{
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"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
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"rank": 5,
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
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"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
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"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
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"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY grinds higher but breadth is weak (RSP lagging, only 41% of assets positive over 5 sessions). Inflation remains sticky (PCE 3.7%, six-month annualized 4.1%) with a hawkish Fed chair, which supports real-asset trends. Precious metals had strong prior-window active returns (+9% to +14%) and pulled back sharply last week with no fundamental change, making them the best-tested overreaction candidates ahead of a payrolls week that could pressure the dollar.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Precious metals (silver, gold) and metals-linked South Africa combine strong prior relative trends with sharp one-week pullbacks unaccompanied by fundamental deterioration — classic overreaction setups. Sticky inflation with softening labor data ahead of the September 4 payroll report skews dollar/rate risk in their favor. Momentum-extended software/cyber and directionless crypto lack an entry edge.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY grinds higher but breadth is weak (RSP lagging, only 41% of assets positive over 5 sessions). Inflation remains sticky (PCE 3.7%, six-month annualized 4.1%) with a hawkish Fed chair, which supports real-asset trends. Precious metals had strong prior-window active returns (+9% to +14%) and pulled back sharply last week with no fundamental change, making them the best-tested overreaction candidates ahead of a payrolls week that could pressure the dollar.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28701,
"latency_seconds": 39.14899350097403,
"output_tokens": 3186,
"total_tokens": 31887
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
The cleanest identifiable dislocation is the precious-metals flush driven by a one-week jump in long-end yields and hawkish Fed communication, occurring after a strong prior relative trend and with no fundamental deterioration in the supplied evidence; gold and silver rank first and second as reversal candidates ahead of a heavy macro week including the August employment report on September 4. Healthcare is a lower-volatility, negative-beta reversal with a sharp relative pullback against a strong prior trend and unusually low volume, providing ballast in a narrowing tape. Extended software and cybersecurity moves lack in-window support and carry the highest reversal risk, so they rank last.
SPY is near highs with modest gains while breadth narrowed (RSP -0.44% vs SPY +0.47% over 5 sessions, positive asset share 40.6%). Rates rose sharply at the long end (2y 4.20%->4.34%, 30y ~5.22%) with Warsh signaling firm 2% target and inflation too high, which pressured precious metals and rate-sensitive defensives. Gold and silver saw a sharp one-week pullback after a strong prior 16-session run, a classic real-rate-driven overreaction that often partially mean-reverts into a heavy macro week (Sept 4 payrolls, pre-FOMC positioning). Crypto is drifting lower with elevated volume z-scores, and software/cybersecurity have parabolic recent moves with very high volatility and no in-window catalyst.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A strong August employment report on September 4 could push yields higher and extend the gold and silver selloff rather than reverse it",
"Pre-FOMC hawkish positioning after Warsh's inflation remarks keeps real yields elevated, a direct headwind to precious metals",
"Silver's 38.7% volatility means a modest adverse move produces large negative excess return",
"Healthcare's low beta underperforms if the S&P 500 continues grinding to new highs",
"Shortened week around the September 7 Labor Day holiday reduces liquidity and can amplify momentum rather than mean reversion"
],
"metadata": {
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{
"evidence": [
"-4.49% week and -3.90% active after +9.04% prior 16-session active run",
"Drawdown equals the full weekly loss, indicating a single-leg rate-driven selloff",
"Weak July payrolls and Sept 4 employment report offer safe-haven catalyst before exit"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
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"rank": 1,
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{
"evidence": [
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"38.7% horizon volatility with only -4.38% drawdown suggests position flush rather than trend break",
"Volume z 0.16 shows no capitulation liquidation"
],
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"mechanism": "reversal",
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{
"evidence": [
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"Quality evidence score 0.744, among the highest in the universe"
],
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"mechanism": "reversal",
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"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
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"High 29.7% volatility and beta 1.52 with metals linkage",
"Quality score 0.766 but pullback is coincident with precious-metals decline"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
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"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+2.60% active with volume z 1.47 and at 52-week high",
"Very low 11.2% volatility and near-zero SPY correlation",
"No supplied fundamental catalyst inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
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"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
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],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
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"mechanism": "no_edge",
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"rank": 6,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Flat 0.03% active after +15.78% prior active run",
"41% volatility, -38.4% below 52-week high",
"Volume z 0.87 with negative 3-session return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
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"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.07% active after +6.94% prior active run",
"Beta 2.37 to SPY makes it a leveraged tape bet, not an idiosyncratic reversal",
"Volume z -1.14 shows fading participation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+0.24% active after a very large +22.47% prior active run",
"54% volatility, deepest 52-week-high gap at -48.7%",
"Volume z 1.17 with negative recent drift suggests distribution"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Petroleum stocks essentially flat week over week at 1.2454 billion barrels",
"46% volatility and -11.06% drawdown, worst in slate",
"Volume z -1.03 with conflicting 3-session gain versus -4.14% active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+5.46% active on top of +7.54% prior active; 39.7% volatility",
"Recent pullback rank 0.000 marks it as the most extended candidate",
"No software-specific catalyst in the window beyond NVIDIA-driven AI sentiment"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+3.44% active, only -3.56% from 52-week high",
"40% volatility with a -9.53% drawdown inside the window",
"Lowest slate quality score at 0.360"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"HEALTHCARE": 30,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
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"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"GOLD",
"SILVER",
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near highs with modest gains while breadth narrowed (RSP -0.44% vs SPY +0.47% over 5 sessions, positive asset share 40.6%). Rates rose sharply at the long end (2y 4.20%->4.34%, 30y ~5.22%) with Warsh signaling firm 2% target and inflation too high, which pressured precious metals and rate-sensitive defensives. Gold and silver saw a sharp one-week pullback after a strong prior 16-session run, a classic real-rate-driven overreaction that often partially mean-reverts into a heavy macro week (Sept 4 payrolls, pre-FOMC positioning). Crypto is drifting lower with elevated volume z-scores, and software/cybersecurity have parabolic recent moves with very high volatility and no in-window catalyst.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"GOLD",
"SILVER",
"HEALTHCARE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The cleanest identifiable dislocation is the precious-metals flush driven by a one-week jump in long-end yields and hawkish Fed communication, occurring after a strong prior relative trend and with no fundamental deterioration in the supplied evidence; gold and silver rank first and second as reversal candidates ahead of a heavy macro week including the August employment report on September 4. Healthcare is a lower-volatility, negative-beta reversal with a sharp relative pullback against a strong prior trend and unusually low volume, providing ballast in a narrowing tape. Extended software and cybersecurity moves lack in-window support and carry the highest reversal risk, so they rank last.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near highs with modest gains while breadth narrowed (RSP -0.44% vs SPY +0.47% over 5 sessions, positive asset share 40.6%). Rates rose sharply at the long end (2y 4.20%->4.34%, 30y ~5.22%) with Warsh signaling firm 2% target and inflation too high, which pressured precious metals and rate-sensitive defensives. Gold and silver saw a sharp one-week pullback after a strong prior 16-session run, a classic real-rate-driven overreaction that often partially mean-reverts into a heavy macro week (Sept 4 payrolls, pre-FOMC positioning). Crypto is drifting lower with elevated volume z-scores, and software/cybersecurity have parabolic recent moves with very high volatility and no in-window catalyst.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28701,
"latency_seconds": 43.0699817679706,
"output_tokens": 3479,
"total_tokens": 32180
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but possess strong underlying quality or fundamental support, such as Silver, Oil, and Gold. These assets offer potential for reversal in a market environment characterized by mixed economic data and persistent inflation concerns.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but a slight contraction in payrolls and a downward benchmark revision. The Fed remains focused on inflation, which is still above target, suggesting rates will stay higher for longer. This environment favors defensive positioning and selective opportunities in sectors with strong fundamentals or recent overreactions.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A stronger-than-expected employment report on September 4 could lead to a reassessment of Fed policy, negatively impacting precious metals.",
"Continued weakness in global manufacturing could weigh on industrial commodities like Silver and Oil."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.69% despite a strong prior active return of 13.99%.",
"High quality evidence score of 0.773."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 2.81% after a significant drawdown of -11.06%.",
"EIA reported a decrease in distillate inventories."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.49% with a high quality score of 0.754.",
"Fed Chair Warsh noted inflation remains too high, supporting gold as an inflation hedge."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.34% with a high quality score of 0.713."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.47% and a high quality score of 0.766."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High prior active return of 22.47% but high volatility of 54.24%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 15.78% with high volatility."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong recent return of 7.51% and prior active return of 7.54%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 6.60%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.36% with a high quality score of 0.744."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 3.22% but low quality score of 0.437."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 30,
"OIL": 35,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but a slight contraction in payrolls and a downward benchmark revision. The Fed remains focused on inflation, which is still above target, suggesting rates will stay higher for longer. This environment favors defensive positioning and selective opportunities in sectors with strong fundamentals or recent overreactions.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced recent pullbacks but possess strong underlying quality or fundamental support, such as Silver, Oil, and Gold. These assets offer potential for reversal in a market environment characterized by mixed economic data and persistent inflation concerns.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but a slight contraction in payrolls and a downward benchmark revision. The Fed remains focused on inflation, which is still above target, suggesting rates will stay higher for longer. This environment favors defensive positioning and selective opportunities in sectors with strong fundamentals or recent overreactions.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19709,
"latency_seconds": 19.155629038985353,
"output_tokens": 2586,
"total_tokens": 22295
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The leading candidates pair strong prior relative trends with sharp, low-confirmation pullbacks rather than relying on recent winners. Silver offers the largest rebound potential, South Africa has the strongest combined trend-pullback profile, and healthcare adds lower-beta defensive exposure around the employment report.
Breadth weakened while mega-cap technology held firm, creating a mixed setup of narrow continuation and selective reversal. The employment report is the main in-window catalyst, while high real yields and dollar strength constrain precious metals and other high-duration exposures.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A stronger-than-expected employment report could lift yields and the dollar, extending precious-metals weakness.",
"A broad risk-off response to labor deterioration could overwhelm the reversal signals in South African and other high-beta assets.",
"Recent pullbacks may reflect an emerging regime change rather than temporary overreaction.",
"Holiday-shortened trading and high volatility could amplify gap risk before the September 8 exit."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -4.78% after a 13.99% prior active gain.",
"Its 0.773 quality score was the slate's highest.",
"The pullback occurred with only a 0.16 volume z-score."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return fell 2.94% after a 9.86% prior active gain.",
"The quality score was 0.766, with both prior strength and pullback ranks at or above 0.94.",
"The 21-session drawdown was limited to 3.77% despite elevated volatility."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.46% following a 3.55% prior active gain.",
"Its 0.744 quality score combined strong prior strength and pullback ranks.",
"Negative SPY beta and weak volume make the selloff look less like broad risk confirmation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -3.07% after a 6.94% prior active gain.",
"NVIDIA reported 106% year-over-year revenue growth and guided to $108 billion next quarter.",
"The 0.713 quality score is tempered by 32.33% volatility and 2.37 SPY beta."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -3.90% after a 9.04% prior active gain.",
"Its quality score was 0.754 and recent pullback rank was 0.970.",
"High real yields and a 1.00% five-session dollar gain remain material headwinds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 15.78% while recent active return was approximately flat.",
"Volume was elevated at a 0.87 z-score.",
"Its 41.07% volatility makes one-week outcomes highly dispersed."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 22.47%, the strongest medium-horizon trend in the slate.",
"Recent active return remained positive at 0.24% with a 1.17 volume z-score.",
"Volatility was an extreme 54.24%, limiting confidence despite trend support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 0.47% over five sessions and 3.73% over 21 sessions.",
"Equal-weight SPY lagged by 0.92% over five sessions, indicating narrow breadth.",
"SPY stood 1.10% below its 52-week high."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Five-session active return was -4.14%, but the latest three-session return was 2.81%.",
"Petroleum stocks excluding the reserve were essentially unchanged week over week.",
"Volatility was 46.18% and the 21-session drawdown reached 11.06%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 2.60% with a 1.47 volume z-score.",
"Volatility was comparatively low at 11.17%.",
"Prior active return was -0.18%, providing little medium-horizon confirmation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 5.46% and prior active return was 7.54%.",
"The quality score was only 0.443 because the latest move was not a pullback.",
"Volatility was elevated at 39.65%, increasing reversal risk after the sharp gain."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 3.44% following a 2.13% prior active gain.",
"The quality score was a weak 0.360.",
"Volatility was 40.11% and the 21-session drawdown reached 9.53%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"HEALTHCARE": 30,
"SILVER": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"HEALTHCARE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Breadth weakened while mega-cap technology held firm, creating a mixed setup of narrow continuation and selective reversal. The employment report is the main in-window catalyst, while high real yields and dollar strength constrain precious metals and other high-duration exposures.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"HEALTHCARE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The leading candidates pair strong prior relative trends with sharp, low-confirmation pullbacks rather than relying on recent winners. Silver offers the largest rebound potential, South Africa has the strongest combined trend-pullback profile, and healthcare adds lower-beta defensive exposure around the employment report.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth weakened while mega-cap technology held firm, creating a mixed setup of narrow continuation and selective reversal. The employment report is the main in-window catalyst, while high real yields and dollar strength constrain precious metals and other high-duration exposures.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 55.90115425596014,
"output_tokens": 4048,
"reasoning_tokens": 1999,
"total_tokens": 20523
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Continuation in software and cybersecurity supported by recent active returns; no candidates meet overreaction plus 55% beat threshold for non-SPY inclusion.
Tech short-continuation amid commodity shock_reversals and macro data showing solid but inflation-sticky growth; one-week window favors limited edges.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Fed policy signals on persistent inflation",
"One-week volatility in tech and commodities",
"Labor market revisions and upcoming employment data"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
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{
"evidence": [
"7.51% weekly return with 5.46% active"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
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"short_continuation"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"6.60% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.45% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3.22% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"2.81% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.34% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.36% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.83% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.24% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.49% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.69% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.47% weekly return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Tech short-continuation amid commodity shock_reversals and macro data showing solid but inflation-sticky growth; one-week window favors limited edges.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Continuation in software and cybersecurity supported by recent active returns; no candidates meet overreaction plus 55% beat threshold for non-SPY inclusion.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Tech short-continuation amid commodity shock_reversals and macro data showing solid but inflation-sticky growth; one-week window favors limited edges.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16690,
"latency_seconds": 16.26242916699266,
"output_tokens": 1592,
"reasoning_tokens": 668,
"total_tokens": 18950
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Top ranks favor quality pullback/overreaction names (XLV, SLV, IAU) with decent odds of mean-reversion versus SPY inside one week; short-continuation tech lacks fresh support and crypto/oil carry excessive vol for the horizon, so overall edge versus simply holding SPY is limited.
Low cross-sectional dispersion with mixed short-term signals: sticky inflation and hawkish Fed tone support limited risk appetite, while quality pullbacks in metals and select defensives offer modest reversal potential versus strong short-term software/cyber momentum that lacks fresh catalysts inside the one-week window.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish Fed speech and elevated PCE could pressure risk assets and precious metals if real yields rise further",
"Low dispersion and Labor Day shortened week may mute reversal magnitude",
"High-beta metals and robotics remain vulnerable to any equity risk-off move",
"Employment report on Sept 4 could reverse defensive or commodity bounces"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -2.46% with volume z -1.54 indicating dislocation",
"High quality evidence score 0.744 with strong prior active rank and pullback rank",
"Low SPY correlation -0.14 and shallow drawdown -2.57%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.773 with top prior active and recent pullback ranks",
"Recent active -4.78% after strong prior +13.99%",
"Shock pullback of -3.69% weekly with elevated but contained drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence 0.754 driven by high prior active and pullback ranks",
"Weekly return -4.49% active -3.90% after prior +9.04%",
"Real yields and sticky inflation backdrop still relevant for precious metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.766 with very high prior and pullback ranks",
"Recent active -2.94% after prior +9.86%",
"Moderate vol and limited max drawdown -3.77%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.713 with strong prior active and deep recent pullback rank",
"Active return -3.07% after prior +6.94%",
"High beta 2.37 leaves room for bounce but also downside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -4.14% despite positive weekly price +2.81% and high pullback rank",
"Very high vol 46% and deep max drawdown -11.06%",
"Inventory data largely flat week-over-week"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Positive active +2.60% with elevated volume z 1.47",
"Low horizon vol 11.17% and at 52w high",
"Quality score modest at 0.437"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strong recent +7.51% and active +5.46% with solid prior",
"High vol 39.65% and quality only 0.443",
"No new in-window catalyst beyond recent momentum"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +6.60% active +3.44%",
"Elevated vol 40% and deep drawdown history -9.53%",
"Low quality score 0.360"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Near-flat active +0.03% after very strong prior +15.78%",
"High vol 41% and large distance to 52w high",
"Quality 0.566 mixed"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +0.24% after extreme prior +22.47%",
"Highest vol 54% among slate",
"Quality 0.557 with weak low-vol rank"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark weekly +0.45% with low vol 10.37%",
"Near 52w high distance -1.10%",
"Positive asset share only 40.6% over 5 sessions"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"GOLD"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Low cross-sectional dispersion with mixed short-term signals: sticky inflation and hawkish Fed tone support limited risk appetite, while quality pullbacks in metals and select defensives offer modest reversal potential versus strong short-term software/cyber momentum that lacks fresh catalysts inside the one-week window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"SILVER",
"GOLD"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor quality pullback/overreaction names (XLV, SLV, IAU) with decent odds of mean-reversion versus SPY inside one week; short-continuation tech lacks fresh support and crypto/oil carry excessive vol for the horizon, so overall edge versus simply holding SPY is limited.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Low cross-sectional dispersion with mixed short-term signals: sticky inflation and hawkish Fed tone support limited risk appetite, while quality pullbacks in metals and select defensives offer modest reversal potential versus strong short-term software/cyber momentum that lacks fresh catalysts inside the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17715,
"latency_seconds": 39.32810750504723,
"output_tokens": 2562,
"reasoning_tokens": 15,
"total_tokens": 20292
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Low cross-sectional dispersion, SPY near highs, and a holiday-shortened week with a jobs print favor the benchmark. The highest-ranked names are quality pullbacks in healthcare and precious metals after sharp 5-session underperformance, but none clear a high-confidence one-week beat versus SPY given still-elevated metals vol and a hawkish policy backdrop.
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.62% with 40.6% of assets positive versus 73.9% over 21 sessions, SPY is 1.1% from its 52-week high, and a hawkish Chair speech plus a jobs print and Labor Day close sit inside the week, so breadth is mixed and a one-week SPY-relative edge is thin.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August employment report on September 4 can reprice rates and risk assets before the September 8 close.",
"Labor Day closure on September 7 compresses liquidity and can exaggerate residual moves in high-vol metals and crypto.",
"Chair Warsh restated a firm 2% PCE objective with inflation still too high, which can keep real-rate pressure on gold, silver, and duration-sensitive growth.",
"Software and cybersecurity already posted large short-window gains with weak volume confirmation, raising mean-reversion risk if mega-cap tech fades."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -2.46% after prior active +3.55% with quality evidence 0.744.",
"Volume z-score -1.54 and SPY correlation -0.14 / beta -0.20.",
"Horizon vol 18.56% and max drawdown only -2.57%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -4.49% and active -3.90% after prior active +9.04%.",
"Quality evidence 0.754 with recent pullback rank 0.970.",
"UUP 5-session return +1.00% coincided with the metals pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.78% after prior active +13.99%; quality score 0.773.",
"Horizon vol 38.69% and 52-week distance -43.16%.",
"Beta to SPY 1.81 with only modest volume z 0.16."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.94% after prior active +9.86%; quality 0.766.",
"Horizon vol 29.70% and 52-week distance -11.43%.",
"SPY corr 0.67 and beta 1.52."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5-session return -4.14% with weekly print +2.81% and vol 46.18%.",
"Max drawdown -11.06% and volume z -1.03.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.31; EIA stocks nearly unchanged week ending Aug 21."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 5-session -3.07% after prior active +6.94%; quality 0.713.",
"Beta 2.37, vol 32.33%, volume z -1.14.",
"NVIDIA outlook is in the briefing but is not a same-week robotics catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return +0.47% and 21-session +3.73%, 1.10% from 52-week high.",
"Horizon vol 10.37% and max drawdown -1.96%.",
"Chair Warsh on Aug 28 said inflation remained too high; next FOMC is after the exit."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +3.22% and active +2.60% with volume z 1.47.",
"Low horizon vol 11.17% but quality only 0.437 and at 52-week high.",
"SPY corr 0.15 so residual is idiosyncratic, not a broad-risk catch-up."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +15.78% but recent active only +0.03% and weekly -1.83%.",
"Vol 41.07%, 52-week distance -38.42%, quality 0.566.",
"No in-window crypto catalyst in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +22.47% with recent active +0.24% and weekly -1.24%.",
"Highest slate vol 54.24% and 52-week distance -48.67%.",
"Quality 0.557 and volume z 1.17 without a stated week catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.35,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +7.51% and active +5.46% after prior active +7.54%.",
"Quality 0.443 with recent pullback rank 0.000 and vol 39.65%.",
"Volume z -0.53 argues against fresh confirmation of the spike."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +6.60% and active +3.44% after prior active +2.13%.",
"Quality 0.360, drawdown -9.53%, vol 40.11%.",
"52-week distance only -3.56% after a short squeeze-like move."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SOFTWARE",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"HEALTHCARE",
"AGRICULTURE",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.62% with 40.6% of assets positive versus 73.9% over 21 sessions, SPY is 1.1% from its 52-week high, and a hawkish Chair speech plus a jobs print and Labor Day close sit inside the week, so breadth is mixed and a one-week SPY-relative edge is thin.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"GOLD",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Low cross-sectional dispersion, SPY near highs, and a holiday-shortened week with a jobs print favor the benchmark. The highest-ranked names are quality pullbacks in healthcare and precious metals after sharp 5-session underperformance, but none clear a high-confidence one-week beat versus SPY given still-elevated metals vol and a hawkish policy backdrop.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.62% with 40.6% of assets positive versus 73.9% over 21 sessions, SPY is 1.1% from its 52-week high, and a hawkish Chair speech plus a jobs print and Labor Day close sit inside the week, so breadth is mixed and a one-week SPY-relative edge is thin.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-30-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17857,
"latency_seconds": 45.12821366201388,
"output_tokens": 2398,
"reasoning_tokens": 504,
"total_tokens": 20759
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Silver (SLV)35%Gold (IAU)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Gold (IAU)35%Silver (SLV)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Silver (SLV)35%Crude Oil (USO)35%Gold (IAU)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Silver (SLV)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Silver (SLV)35%Gold (IAU)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | dc33b9403b61...85fae895 |
| manifest.yaml | 0852fc640e41...d87b5336 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 86cc16cb273a...69086a2a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | b46bf5e626a3...61846088 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | a343087fcdd6...f209965e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | c6c3d318b0a0...52d80212 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 25a75862667b...c781b87e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | e834db9c2028...fb3dabc6 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |