Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 60.1 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios allocate +40.62% to defensive equity, while the newest monthly portfolios allocate +48.12%.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Healthcare Sector (XLV) is the largest aggregate allocation at +23.12%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-05 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260729-clean
32,542 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-29
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-30T07:34:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-30T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-29
- Exit date: 2026-08-05
- Entry rule: Use the Wednesday, July 29, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-30T07:34:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 29, the S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, down 1.5%; the Dow closed at 51,594.14, down 2.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,442.94, down 1.7%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,906.31, down 1.6%.
- A majority of U.S. stocks fell. Nvidia declined 3.6% and KLA declined 10.8%. The Nasdaq ended 9.8% below its prior-month record.
- Through July 29, the S&P 500 was up 6.9% in 2026, the Dow 7.3%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Russell 2000 17.1%.
## Rates, Inflation, and Policy
- The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The FOMC described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated in part because of the Middle East conflict.
- Before the FOMC decision, futures pricing implied about a 34% probability of an increase. This was market-implied pricing, not a Federal Reserve forecast.
- The two-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 29 at 4.24%, down from 4.26%, while the ten-year yield rose to 4.68% from 4.61%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. Energy fell 5.7% on the month.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate's ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%; Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27%; Azure revenue growth of 43%; and commercial remaining performance obligation of $678 billion, up 84%. More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%, Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 7%, and Xbox content and services revenue fell 10%.
- Meta reported revenue of $60.801 billion, up 28%, while costs and expenses rose 55%; operating income fell 8% and net income fell 14%. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- October Brent crude settled at $88.09 per barrel, up 7.3%. Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 6.0% after a 10.8% decline the previous day; Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.5%.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged on July 23. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 5 Close
- July 30: advance second-quarter U.S. GDP, June Personal Income and Outlays, and weekly jobless claims; Apple and Amazon results after the U.S. close; Bank of Japan meeting in progress.
- July 31: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index; euro-area July flash inflation; Bank of Japan policy communication and Outlook Report.
- August 3: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
- August 4: June U.S. international trade, June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 5: weekly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-29-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-29'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-30T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-30T07:33:48.786151+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the Wednesday, July 29, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Wednesday, August 5, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-29'
exit_date: '2026-08-05'
created_at: '2026-07-30T07:33:48.786151+00:00'
notes: 'Research prepared from direct public-source browsing only; participant calls are single-turn closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-07-30T07:34:00Z
Decision and entry observation date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, benchmark-relative, and option-quality appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market Close and Breadth
- On July 29, the S&P 500 closed at 7,316.15, down 1.5%; the Dow closed at 51,594.14, down 2.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,442.94, down 1.7%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,906.31, down 1.6%.
- A majority of U.S. stocks fell. Nvidia declined 3.6% and KLA declined 10.8%. The Nasdaq ended 9.8% below its prior-month record.
- Through July 29, the S&P 500 was up 6.9% in 2026, the Dow 7.3%, the Nasdaq 5.2%, and the Russell 2000 17.1%.
## Rates, Inflation, and Policy
- The FOMC voted 9-3 to maintain the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The FOMC described activity as solid, unemployment as little changed, inflation as elevated relative to 2%, and outlook uncertainty as elevated in part because of the Middle East conflict.
- Before the FOMC decision, futures pricing implied about a 34% probability of an increase. This was market-implied pricing, not a Federal Reserve forecast.
- The two-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 29 at 4.24%, down from 4.26%, while the ten-year yield rose to 4.68% from 4.61%.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. Energy fell 5.7% on the month.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.
## Economy, Companies, and Cross-Assets
- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, and labor-force participation was 61.5%. April and May payroll estimates were revised down by a combined 74,000.
- July consumer confidence was 90.8, down from 92.2 in June. Current labor-market views weakened while six-month labor-market expectations improved slightly but remained negative.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate's ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- Microsoft reported quarterly revenue of $90.0 billion, up 18%; Microsoft Cloud revenue of $59.3 billion, up 27%; Azure revenue growth of 43%; and commercial remaining performance obligation of $678 billion, up 84%. More Personal Computing revenue fell 4%, Windows OEM and devices revenue fell 7%, and Xbox content and services revenue fell 10%.
- Meta reported revenue of $60.801 billion, up 28%, while costs and expenses rose 55%; operating income fell 8% and net income fell 14%. Meta forecast third-quarter revenue of $61 billion to $64 billion and full-year capital expenditures of $130 billion to $145 billion. These are company forecasts, not observed outcomes.
- October Brent crude settled at $88.09 per barrel, up 7.3%. Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 6.0% after a 10.8% decline the previous day; Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 2.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.5%.
- The ECB kept its three policy rates unchanged on July 23. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.
## Scheduled Events Through the August 5 Close
- July 30: advance second-quarter U.S. GDP, June Personal Income and Outlays, and weekly jobless claims; Apple and Amazon results after the U.S. close; Bank of Japan meeting in progress.
- July 31: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index; euro-area July flash inflation; Bank of Japan policy communication and Outlook Report.
- August 3: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey.
- August 4: June U.S. international trade, June Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, and June full manufacturers' orders.
- August 5: weekly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.
These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, company forecasts remain uncertain, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "a8554892869f8a30389e65929b6918f44006c7c4b664c5fe11713b26ba15417c",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-29-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Hawkish FOMC dissent, rising 10-year yields, a 9.8% Nasdaq drawdown from highs, and unresolved Middle East risk favor defensive value, staples, healthcare, energy, and gold over cap-weighted SPY, whose mega-cap growth exposure is under pressure.
Defensive rotation portfolio: value, staples, healthcare, energy, and gold to exploit ongoing breadth divergence (RSP-SPY +3.83% over 5 sessions) and geopolitical oil/gold support while avoiding stressed growth exposure.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Apple/Amazon earnings beat and benign PCE could stabilize the index",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 fell 1.5% on July 29; Nasdaq 9.8% below prior-month record",
"FOMC held rates 9-3 with three hawkish dissents; 10y yield rose to 4.68%",
"spy_return_5s -2.40% while rsp_minus_spy_5s +3.83% shows mega-cap-driven weakness"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong mega-cap earnings reaction lifting SPY sharply",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Concentrated mega-cap weakness continues, dragging cap-weighted index below equal-weight and defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple/Amazon results Jul 30, PCE and GDP Jul 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rotation from expensive growth into value persists amid hawkish Fed tilt and rising long yields",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.21% 5-session active return with only -1.00% from 52-week high",
"Low 9.95% volatility and 0.665 beta; positive prior active trend +1.10%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp tech-led rally with value underperforming SPY for consecutive sessions",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth snapback after mega-cap earnings drains value flows",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data week Jul 30-Aug 4 sustaining value rotation"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Risk-off environment sustains defensive demand",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+5.93% 5-session active return, beta -0.32 to SPY",
"Consumer confidence fell to 90.8; breadth negative with 33% positive asset share"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY rallies >2% on earnings/data, reversing defensive rotation",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally reverses defensive bid; staples already extended after strong week",
"time_window_catalyst": "Data-heavy week with elevated uncertainty through Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues amid tech drawdown and policy uncertainty",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+6.67% 5-session active return, beta -0.11, only -0.61% from 52-week high",
"Recent pullback rank 0.000 indicates strongest recent relative move in universe"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally with healthcare lagging SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Mean reversion after strong week; risk-on shift",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro uncertainty through Aug 5 supporting defensives"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk premium persists or escalates",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled at $88.09, up 7.3%; Strait of Hormuz access unresolved",
"Prior 16-session active return +9.62%; beta -0.715 to SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ceasefire or Hormuz reopening sending Brent below $82",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation collapses oil premium; XLE gives back gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Middle East conflict and Hormuz tanker risk through Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand rises on geopolitical escalation and equity stress",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Middle East conflict cited by FOMC as elevating outlook uncertainty",
"Prior active return +1.99% with recent -2.12% pullback offering entry"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields spike further with risk sentiment improving",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Higher 10y yields (4.68%) and dollar firmness pressure gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical headlines and PCE/GDP data through Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Apple/Amazon beats could spark a bounce",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-3.78% 5-session active return, -11.22% from 52-week high, 21.5% volatility",
"Nvidia -3.6%, KLA -10.8%; Meta costs up 55% with net income down 14%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong earnings reactions stabilizing mega-cap tech",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "AI capex concerns and hawkish Fed keep pressuring growth multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon earnings after close Jul 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend demand persists in risk-off tape",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+5.23% 5-session active return, near 52-week high, beta 0.14"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on rotation back into growth",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Already extended; lowest recent pullback rank suggests reversion risk; cluster overlap with LARGE_VALUE would breach 50% cap",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data week through Aug 5"
}
],
"confidence": 0.66,
"cost_usd": 0.46848999999999996,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.87,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp mega-cap tech rebound after Apple/Amazon earnings would lift SPY above defensive sectors",
"Middle East de-escalation could reverse energy and gold gains quickly",
"Hot PCE/ECI prints could push yields higher, pressuring all equity holdings",
"Defensive sectors have already run 5-7% active in a week and may mean-revert"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rebound in mega-cap tech after Apple/Amazon earnings pulling flows back to growth",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value leading in the tech-driven selloff with low volatility, shallow drawdown, and positive prior active trend; defensive tilt fits hawkish FOMC dissent and rising 10y yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Q2 GDP, PCE (Jul 30), ECI (Jul 31), SLOOS (Aug 3) favoring rotation from growth to value"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally lifting growth sectors and reversing defensive flows",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Negative beta to SPY (-0.32), +5.93% active over 5 sessions, defensive shelter with consumer confidence declining and market breadth deteriorating.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued risk-off through data-heavy week ending Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on reversal or sector-specific policy news pressuring healthcare",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Near-zero beta, +6.67% 5-session active return, near 52-week high, and deepest recent relative pullback rank suggesting favorable defensive positioning.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation persisting through macro data week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "De-escalation announcement or ceasefire dropping Brent back below ~$82",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 7.3% to $88 on unresolved Strait of Hormuz risk; XLE negative beta, strong prior active trend (+9.62%), geopolitical premium likely persists over the week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict and Hormuz tanker access unresolved through Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp rise in real yields or dollar strength alongside geopolitical de-escalation",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven demand amid Middle East conflict and elevated policy uncertainty; positive prior active trend with a recent modest pullback entry point.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical risk and FOMC hawkish-dissent uncertainty into Aug 5"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.87,
"portfolio_rationale": "Hawkish FOMC dissent, rising 10-year yields, a 9.8% Nasdaq drawdown from highs, and unresolved Middle East risk favor defensive value, staples, healthcare, energy, and gold over cap-weighted SPY, whose mega-cap growth exposure is under pressure.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive rotation portfolio: value, staples, healthcare, energy, and gold to exploit ongoing breadth divergence (RSP-SPY +3.83% over 5 sessions) and geopolitical oil/gold support while avoiding stressed growth exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.46848999999999996,
"input_tokens": 27489,
"latency_seconds": 46.80355584714562,
"output_tokens": 3872,
"total_tokens": 31361
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
After a broad -1.5% selloff with tech leading declines, defensive factors (value, healthcare, staples) showed strong positive active returns with low beta and shallow drawdowns, positioning them to outperform in a continued risk-off or choppy week around GDP/PCE data.
Tilt to defensive equity leaders that resisted the selloff while keeping SP500 core exposure.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Rebound after oversold selloff",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY closed -1.5% July 29",
"spy_return_5s -2.40%",
"-3.72% from 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break below recent lows on weak data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Continued tech-led decline",
"time_window_catalyst": "GDP/PCE July 30, jobs"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive value rotation persists amid tech weakness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +3.21%",
"beta 0.665",
"max_drawdown -1.31%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech mega-cap rally reverses rotation",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound leading value underperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data week favors defensives"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low-correlation defensive bid continues",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +6.67%",
"beta -0.111",
"shallow drawdown -3.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad cyclical rally",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rally hurts defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows in macro week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive hedge amid equity weakness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +5.93%",
"beta -0.322",
"shallow drawdown -3.03%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong risk-on rally",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "Sharp equity rebound reverses defensive bid",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data uncertainty"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Tech weakness continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"return_3s -3.29%",
"-11.22% from high",
"beta 1.689"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp tech recovery",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Oversold bounce in mega-caps",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple/Amazon earnings July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend bid persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +5.23%",
"beta 0.141",
"shallow drawdown -1.11%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Risk-on rotation",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Rate-driven rotation out of dividend names",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical oil premium persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent +7.3% to $88.09",
"prior 16s active +9.62%",
"Hormuz risk unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil declines sharply",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil pullback -1.63% return_3s",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid amid uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"safe-haven demand",
"return_5s -2.12%",
"-25.14% from high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Strong dollar and rising real rates",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising 10yr yields pressure gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data, geopolitics"
}
],
"confidence": 0.6,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.455,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp tech rebound reverses defensive rotation",
"Strong GDP/PCE prints trigger broad risk-on rally",
"Middle East escalation spikes volatility across all equities"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech mega-caps rebound sharply reversing value rotation",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value outperformed sharply in recent selloff with low beta and shallow drawdown; defensive rotation continues amid tech weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "GDP/PCE July 30 and jobs data support defensive rotation"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rally lifts cyclicals over defensives",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong defensive rotation beneficiary, +6.67% active 5s, low SPY correlation, shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows amid uncertain GDP/PCE prints"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp equity rebound reverses defensive bid",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Strong defensive move +5.93% active 5s, negative beta, shallow drawdown; hedge against continued equity weakness.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive positioning into macro data week"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff continues",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to limit tracking error.",
"time_window_catalyst": "GDP/PCE July 30, jobs data"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.555,
"portfolio_rationale": "After a broad -1.5% selloff with tech leading declines, defensive factors (value, healthcare, staples) showed strong positive active returns with low beta and shallow drawdowns, positioning them to outperform in a continued risk-off or choppy week around GDP/PCE data.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Tilt to defensive equity leaders that resisted the selloff while keeping SP500 core exposure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27495,
"latency_seconds": 35.84437903901562,
"output_tokens": 2422,
"total_tokens": 29917
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
SPY is in a tech-led drawdown while equal-weight, dividend, defensive and energy exposures outperformed sharply; I tilt to those with modest benchmark core.
Barbell of benchmark plus defensive/value/energy tilts supported by breadth rotation (RSP-SPY +3.8% over 5 sessions), rising oil, and elevated policy uncertainty.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Tech-led drawdown could extend if AI capex concerns broaden.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7,316.15, -1.5% on July 29",
"spy_return_5s -2.40%",
"Up 6.9% YTD"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield above 4.9%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Oversold bounce after 2.4% weekly decline plus strong Apple/Amazon results.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon results July 30; GDP and PCE data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation persists while megacap tech de-rates.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +5.23%, prior_16s +2.17%",
"max_drawdown_21s -1.11%, 0.18% from 52w high",
"quality score 0.584 with top prior active rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech-led rally with dividend underperformance two consecutive sessions",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Very low recent-pullback rank suggests it is extended short term.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation flows through the Aug 5 close"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steeper curve and solid activity support bank earnings power.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"prior_16s active +3.47%, active_5s +3.53%",
"10-year yield rose to 4.68%",
"drawdown only -2.08%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falling more than 1% on the week",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Loan survey showing tightening standards or credit deterioration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Aug 3"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid with negative SPY correlation amid elevated uncertainty.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +6.67%",
"beta_spy -0.11, drawdown -3.74%",
"0.61% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Two-day underperformance versus SPY exceeding 2%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Lowest recent-pullback rank (0.00) implies stretched short-term move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows and macro prints through Aug 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk keeps crude bid, energy earnings upgraded.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $88.09, +7.3%",
"prior_16s active +9.62%",
"Hormuz access unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Diplomatic de-escalation would unwind the risk premium quickly.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East headlines and weekly inventory data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Momentum unwind and AI capex doubts can extend.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s -11.69%, return_3s -10.15%",
"KLA -10.8%, Nvidia -3.6%",
"volatility 48.7%, 24.6% below 52w high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH reclaiming its 21-day average",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Deeply oversold; a bounce could be violent.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple/Amazon capex commentary July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand from conflict and elevated inflation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"iau_return_5s -2.12%",
"25.1% below 52-week high",
"prior active +1.99%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaking below its 21-day range",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising 10-year yield at 4.68% and hawkish FOMC dissents pressure gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "June PCE and Q2 GDP July 30"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable spreads and carry provide steady low-vol return.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"volatility 2.55%, drawdown -0.80%",
"hyg_return_5s -0.35%",
"quality score 0.622"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Spread widening with HYG under -1% weekly",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"reversal_case": "Upside too limited to beat equities in a bounce week.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Loan officer survey Aug 3"
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"cost_usd": 0.21184499999999998,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.315,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sharp mega-cap tech rebound on Apple/Amazon results would reverse the rotation",
"Hot Q2 GDP/PCE prints lifting yields and hurting defensives",
"Oil reversal if Hormuz risk premium unwinds",
"Crowded defensive positioning prone to mean reversion"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Ten-year yield above 4.9% or mega-cap guidance shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark core; SPY already down 2.4% in five sessions, limiting further tail underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple/Amazon results July 30, Q2 GDP and PCE"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp tech-led melt-up reversing defensive leadership",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Defensive quality with strongest prior and recent relative trend, shallow drawdown, near 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation out of megacap tech through Aug 5 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit stress signals or curve flattening sharply",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Persistent positive prior active return, steeper curve (10y up to 4.68%), low drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Adverse drug-pricing policy headline",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Low beta defensive with negative SPY correlation; deep recent-pullback rank implies mean-reversion room.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows amid elevated uncertainty into Aug 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falling back below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent up 7.3% to $88 with Hormuz risk unresolved; energy has strong prior active return and negative SPY beta.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East conflict headlines, weekly inventories"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.615,
"portfolio_rationale": "SPY is in a tech-led drawdown while equal-weight, dividend, defensive and energy exposures outperformed sharply; I tilt to those with modest benchmark core.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Barbell of benchmark plus defensive/value/energy tilts supported by breadth rotation (RSP-SPY +3.8% over 5 sessions), rising oil, and elevated policy uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.21184499999999998,
"input_tokens": 27489,
"latency_seconds": 44.74853277695365,
"output_tokens": 2976,
"total_tokens": 30465
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio is positioned defensively given the recent market selloff, elevated volatility, and uncertainty surrounding the FOMC and upcoming macro data. Consumer Staples and Healthcare offer defensive characteristics and have shown recent relative strength.
Defensive positioning with Consumer Staples and Healthcare.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": -0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued market weakness due to macro uncertainty and tech selloff.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.5% on July 29.",
"FOMC maintained rates, citing elevated inflation and uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong, sustained rally across major indices.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Strong earnings or dovish macro data could spark a rally.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Investors continue to seek safety in defensive sectors.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLP had a 5-day active return of 5.93%.",
"Defensive sector in a volatile market."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in market sentiment favoring high-beta growth.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"reversal_case": "A rapid return to risk-on sentiment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and macro data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued outperformance as a defensive play.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV had a 5-day active return of 6.67%.",
"Defensive sector with strong recent relative performance."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in market sentiment favoring high-beta growth.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A rapid return to risk-on sentiment.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and macro data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued tech selloff due to valuation concerns and macro uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.7% on July 29.",
"QQQ had a 5-day active return of -3.78%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "A strong rally in mega-cap tech stocks.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Strong tech earnings could reverse the trend.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Yields stabilize or fall slightly on weaker macro data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Ten-year yield rose to 4.68%.",
"TLT had a 5-day active return of 1.69%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp increase in long-term Treasury yields.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Strong macro data pushes yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PCE inflation and GDP data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued demand for safe-haven assets.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU had a 5-day active return of 0.28%.",
"Safe-haven asset amid market uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp decline in gold prices.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A strong US dollar or rising real yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data releases and geopolitical developments."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.05,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden risk-on rally could lead to underperformance.",
"Sector-specific earnings misses could drag down returns.",
"Macro data surprises could shift market sentiment rapidly."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in market sentiment favoring high-beta growth.",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
"rationale": "Defensive positioning amid market weakness and elevated uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and macro data releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp reversal in market sentiment favoring high-beta growth.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent relative performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and macro data releases."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is positioned defensively given the recent market selloff, elevated volatility, and uncertainty surrounding the FOMC and upcoming macro data. Consumer Staples and Healthcare offer defensive characteristics and have shown recent relative strength.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Defensive positioning with Consumer Staples and Healthcare.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16718,
"latency_seconds": 10.947165206074715,
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}openai-gpt-5-5
The portfolio avoids concentrated mega-cap technology weakness and favors commodity-linked, energy, financial, and defensive healthcare exposures with near-term catalysts. Non-SPY cluster exposure respects the 50% cap, with non-energy commodities capped at 50% and energy at 20%.
SPY has mild rebound potential after a weak close, but several active exposures have stronger one-week base forecasts based on supplied quality, relative strength, and catalysts. The allocation targets diversified alpha versus SPY rather than a single momentum bet.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.25,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "A short-term rebound is possible after the recent selloff if macro data and large-cap earnings calm risk appetite.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.5% on July 29 and was 3.72% below its 52-week high.",
"SPY return_3s was -1.28% and return_5s was -2.40%.",
"Scheduled GDP, PCE, jobless claims, ECI, and JOLTS arrive before the August 5 close."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY fails to hold recent lows while breadth remains negative and technology continues to lead down.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap technology weakness, elevated inflation uncertainty, and weak breadth could extend the decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/PCE/jobless claims and Apple/Amazon results, followed by ECI, SLOOS, trade, JOLTS, and manufacturers' orders."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive prior active trend, high pullback and quality ranks, and low SPY correlation support continued relative strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Agriculture had the highest quality evidence score at 0.787.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 5.62% with low 63-session SPY correlation of 0.091.",
"Volatility_21s was 16.59% and max_drawdown_21s was -2.66%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture breaks below its recent 21-day drawdown area or commodity/inflation data sharply undermines the prior active trend.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "Recent 3-session weakness of -2.66% could extend if commodities mean-revert or inflation-sensitive trades fade.",
"time_window_catalyst": "June PCE, GDP, trade data, and continued commodity/inflation sensitivity before the August 5 close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior active trend and high quality score may persist if industrial demand sentiment holds up.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Copper quality evidence score was 0.721 with prior active rank of 0.881 and recent pullback rank of 0.731.",
"Prior 16-session active return was 4.56%.",
"China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Copper loses recent relative strength versus SPY or macro releases point to materially weaker industrial demand.",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"reversal_case": "Copper's growth sensitivity could hurt if U.S. or global macro data disappoints before exit.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance U.S. GDP, June PCE, trade data, and China-linked global growth sentiment through August 5."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical oil risk and strong prior relative trend support near-term continuation in energy equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy had quality evidence score of 0.691 and prior active rank of 0.955.",
"Energy prior 16-session active return was 9.62%.",
"October Brent crude settled at $88.09 per barrel, up 7.3%, while Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses sharply or conflict-risk premium fades, invalidating the energy continuation case.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Energy could reverse if crude gives back the conflict premium or equity risk-off pressure overwhelms oil sensitivity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz tanker access and Middle East conflict, plus weekly macro/inventory-sensitive oil sentiment before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent and prior relative strength can continue if solid activity, a steeper curve, and benign credit conditions persist.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials had prior active rank of 0.866 and quality evidence score of 0.601.",
"Financials active_return_5s was 3.53% and prior_16s_active_return was 3.47%.",
"The two-year Treasury yield ended at 4.24%, while the ten-year yield rose to 4.68%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Rates flatten materially, credit conditions deteriorate, or the loan survey points to clear tightening stress.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Financials could lag if labor or loan data imply rising credit stress or if rates move against net-interest-margin expectations.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/PCE, July 31 Employment Cost Index, and August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation may persist if broad market breadth remains weak and technology stays under pressure.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare active_return_5s was 6.67% and return_3s was 2.26%.",
"Healthcare distance_52w_high was only -0.61%.",
"Healthcare had negative 63-session SPY correlation of -0.080 and beta of -0.111."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare's recent active rebound fails and the sector underperforms SPY on risk-on rotation into growth.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Its quality evidence score was low at 0.305, so the recent bounce may be overextended without new sector-specific support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation after broad U.S. equity weakness and upcoming macro data that could favor defensive sectors."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Cash-like stability should continue if rates remain anchored and risk assets stay volatile.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Short Treasury volatility_21s was 0.23% with max_drawdown_21s of -0.01%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.608 with low-volatility and shallow-drawdown ranks both 1.000.",
"FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.08,
"forecast_high_pct": 0.12,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "A broad equity rebound lifts SPY materially while short Treasury returns remain near zero.",
"option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Low expected price movement makes it unlikely to beat SPY if equities rebound from the recent selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified beyond short-rate carry and macro data affecting risk appetite."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A strong short-term software bounce could persist if Microsoft cloud results support sentiment toward software and AI-related spending.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Software return_3s was 4.99% and active_return_5s was 6.16%.",
"Software quality evidence score was low at 0.242.",
"Technology and growth exposures showed broad weakness, with Nasdaq down 1.7% on July 29 and 9.8% below its prior-month record."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Software fails to hold its recent rebound while broader technology and Nasdaq weakness resumes.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Low quality score, broader technology weakness, and high 21-session volatility of 25.25% make reversal risk high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon results, follow-through from Microsoft cloud results, and macro data affecting growth-stock sentiment."
}
],
"confidence": 0.57,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.47,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Scheduled GDP, PCE, labor-cost, and loan-officer data could trigger a broad equity or rates reversal unfavorable to selected sectors.",
"Commodity exposures may reverse quickly if Middle East risk premium fades or global growth expectations weaken.",
"A sharp rebound in mega-cap technology would likely help SPY more than this portfolio and reduce alpha.",
"Financials could lag if long yields fall, credit concerns rise, or the loan survey signals tighter lending conditions."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Agriculture breaks below its recent 21-day drawdown area or commodity/inflation data sharply undermines the prior active trend.",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "Highest quality evidence score with positive prior active trend, comparatively moderate volatility, and low SPY correlation offers diversification for a one-week window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "June PCE, GDP, trade data, and continued commodity/inflation sensitivity before the August 5 close."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "Copper loses recent relative strength versus SPY or macro releases point to materially weaker industrial demand.",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "Positive prior active return and high quality evidence score support continuation, while China GDP growth and upcoming macro data provide near-term catalysts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Advance U.S. GDP, June PCE, trade data, and China-linked global growth sentiment through August 5."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses sharply or conflict-risk premium fades, invalidating the energy continuation case.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Energy has strong prior active return and high quality evidence, with unresolved Middle East conflict and elevated Brent crude as a direct one-week catalyst.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Strait of Hormuz tanker access and Middle East conflict, plus weekly macro/inventory-sensitive oil sentiment before exit."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Rates flatten materially, credit conditions deteriorate, or the loan survey points to clear tightening stress.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials show positive 5-day and prior active returns, high prior active rank, and benefit if solid activity and a steeper yield curve persist.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/PCE, July 31 Employment Cost Index, and August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare's recent active rebound fails and the sector underperforms SPY on risk-on rotation into growth.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare recently outperformed SPY and sits close to its 52-week high, providing defensive equity exposure if mega-cap technology weakness continues.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation after broad U.S. equity weakness and upcoming macro data that could favor defensive sectors."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.72,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio avoids concentrated mega-cap technology weakness and favors commodity-linked, energy, financial, and defensive healthcare exposures with near-term catalysts. Non-SPY cluster exposure respects the 50% cap, with non-energy commodities capped at 50% and energy at 20%.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY has mild rebound potential after a weak close, but several active exposures have stronger one-week base forecasts based on supplied quality, relative strength, and catalysts. The allocation targets diversified alpha versus SPY rather than a single momentum bet.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15230,
"latency_seconds": 58.60793678788468,
"output_tokens": 2801,
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors four independently supported exposures with positive benchmark-relative trends while avoiding the weak mega-cap technology tape. Cluster diversification and moderate position sizes reduce dependence on any single macro outcome.
Dividend equities, financials, energy, and China each have base forecasts above SPY, supported by relative strength plus distinct near-term drivers. The weighted base return is 0.66%, implying 0.46 percentage point expected alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Weak breadth, elevated inflation uncertainty, and concentrated technology weakness could extend the decline.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY fell 2.40% over five sessions and 1.56% over 21 sessions.",
"Only 33.33% of tracked assets were positive over five sessions.",
"GDP, PCE, ECI, Apple, and Amazon outcomes fall inside the scoring window."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY regains its prior-month high with improving breadth, invalidating the cautious base case.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "The 1.5% entry-day drop and upcoming mega-cap earnings could produce a broad relief rebound.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP, PCE, jobless claims, Apple and Amazon results, followed by July 31 ECI."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent rotation toward profitable dividend payers continues while growth concentration remains under pressure.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SCHD gained 1.62% over three sessions and outperformed SPY by 5.23% over five sessions.",
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 2.17%.",
"Its prior active rank was 0.836 and it sat only 0.18% below its 52-week high."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Defensive breadth reverses and SCHD underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point over two consecutive closes.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A technology-led risk rally or profit-taking near the 52-week high could reverse relative strength.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE, July 31 ECI, and continued rotation away from mega-cap growth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A steeper curve and established relative trend support banks, insurers, and capital-markets firms.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLF outperformed SPY by 3.53% over five sessions and by 3.47% in the prior 16-session window.",
"Its prior active rank was 0.866 and quality evidence score was 0.601.",
"The two-year yield was 4.24% while the ten-year yield rose to 4.68%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The yield curve flattens materially or XLF closes below its recent 21-session drawdown trough.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weak growth, tighter lending standards, or renewed curve flattening could pressure the sector.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE, July 31 ECI, and August 3 Senior Loan Officer survey."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk and the strong prior relative trend keep an upside risk premium in energy equities.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE had a positive 9.62% prior 16-session active return and a 0.955 prior active rank.",
"October Brent settled at $88.09, up 7.3%.",
"Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict remained unresolved."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hormuz access normalizes or crude reverses sharply enough that XLE underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Rapid de-escalation or mean reversion after the strong prior run could outweigh the geopolitical premium.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict before August 5."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive growth and persistent relative momentum can attract capital toward an equity market still 16.24% below its 52-week high.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"MCHI gained 3.26% over three sessions and outperformed SPY by 5.20% over five sessions.",
"Prior 16-session active return was positive 4.61%.",
"China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI loses its recent relative strength and underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over two closes.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "High volatility, policy uncertainty, or global risk aversion could abruptly reverse the move.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Cross-border risk appetite and market reaction to China's reported 4.3% year-over-year second-quarter growth."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low volatility and shallow drawdown could preserve capital if equity turbulence persists without recession fears.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"HYG volatility was only 2.55% with a shallow 0.80% 21-session drawdown.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.622.",
"Five- and 21-session absolute returns were negative 0.35% and 0.50%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.18,
"forecast_high_pct": 1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply and HYG breaks below its 21-session drawdown low.",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"reversal_case": "Weak labor or lending data could widen credit spreads, while a risk rally would leave its upside behind equities.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and jobless claims plus the August 3 Senior Loan Officer survey."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical uncertainty and a softer inflation or growth surprise could revive safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Gold's quality evidence score was 0.668 and prior active rank was 0.821.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was positive 1.99%.",
"Gold fell 2.12% over five sessions while the ten-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields rise further while IAU makes a new 21-session low.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Higher real yields and continued post-FOMC rate pressure could extend the recent decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE plus Middle East developments."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong cloud fundamentals and upcoming mega-cap earnings could trigger a high-beta rebound from the pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"QQQ fell 3.29% over three sessions and underperformed SPY by 3.78% over five sessions.",
"Its prior 16-session active return was negative 3.45% with 21.48% volatility.",
"Microsoft reported 18% revenue growth and 43% Azure growth, while Apple and Amazon results are scheduled."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.05,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "QQQ fails to hold its recent low after mega-cap earnings or its active return versus SPY deteriorates further.",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Persistent technology de-rating, elevated yields, and weak semiconductor breadth could extend underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Apple and Amazon results after the July 30 close and reaction to Microsoft and Meta reports."
}
],
"confidence": 0.61,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.46,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A benign inflation or growth surprise could trigger a sharp rebound in mega-cap technology and reverse the value and defensive rotation.",
"De-escalation in the Middle East could rapidly unwind energy-sector strength.",
"Weak GDP, labor, or lending data could hurt financials and broader cyclical risk appetite.",
"China-specific policy or geopolitical stress could overwhelm recent relative momentum."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Defensive breadth reverses and SCHD underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point over two consecutive closes.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Strong prior and recent benchmark-relative performance, positive three-session return, and near-high positioning favor continued defensive rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE, July 31 ECI, and continued rotation away from mega-cap growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "The yield curve flattens materially or XLF closes below its recent 21-session drawdown trough.",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Positive prior and recent active returns plus a steeper Treasury curve support financials despite macro-event risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE, July 31 ECI, and August 3 Senior Loan Officer survey."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hormuz access normalizes or crude reverses sharply enough that XLE underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "The unresolved Middle East conflict, elevated Brent price, and strong prior active trend provide independent support beyond momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in Strait of Hormuz tanker access and the Middle East conflict before August 5."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "MCHI loses its recent relative strength and underperforms SPY by more than 2 percentage points over two closes.",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"rationale": "Positive short- and prior-window relative momentum is supported by reported second-quarter Chinese growth, though volatility remains high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Cross-border risk appetite and market reaction to China's reported 4.3% year-over-year second-quarter growth."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.66,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors four independently supported exposures with positive benchmark-relative trends while avoiding the weak mega-cap technology tape. Cluster diversification and moderate position sizes reduce dependence on any single macro outcome.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Dividend equities, financials, energy, and China each have base forecasts above SPY, supported by relative strength plus distinct near-term drivers. The weighted base return is 0.66%, implying 0.46 percentage point expected alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15232,
"latency_seconds": 32.744651321088895,
"output_tokens": 2270,
"reasoning_tokens": 0,
"total_tokens": 17502
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Selected holdings with base forecasts exceeding SP500 to capture value and defensive rotation in a week of macro data releases.
Portfolio tilts toward large value, dividend, healthcare and financials clusters for one-week alpha versus SP500.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad equity weakness persists into GDP release",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.5% on July 29",
"FOMC maintained rates amid elevated uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Positive GDP and PCE surprise lifts equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value outperformance continues on rate stability",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE active return 3.21% over 5s",
"Prior active rank 0.761"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth rebound compresses value premium",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend exposure holds through macro prints",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND active return 5.23% over 5s",
"Prior active rank 0.836"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation favors growth over dividends",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Healthcare defensiveness supports relative gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active return 6.67% over 5s",
"Low correlation to SPY at -0.080"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Sector-specific regulatory or earnings disappointment",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Financials benefit from stable policy outlook",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS active return 3.53% over 5s",
"Prior active rank 0.866"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Credit spread widening on growth concerns",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical support for energy prices holds",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $88.09 up 7.3%",
"ENERGY prior active rank 0.955"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Resolution of Middle East tensions eases oil",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand persists amid uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD prior active rank 0.821",
"June CPI and PPI data released"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger growth data reduces gold appeal",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.95,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC dissent signals potential policy volatility",
"Middle East conflict escalation affecting energy and risk assets",
"Weaker than expected Q2 GDP print"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt shows relative strength amid rate stability and earnings dispersion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Dividend equities exhibit defensive characteristics with positive active returns.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare demonstrates low correlation to growth selloff and recent outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained rise in 10y yield above 4.8%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "Financials benefit from stable policy and yield curve dynamics.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP and PCE releases"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.45,
"portfolio_rationale": "Selected holdings with base forecasts exceeding SP500 to capture value and defensive rotation in a week of macro data releases.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Portfolio tilts toward large value, dividend, healthcare and financials clusters for one-week alpha versus SP500.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15463,
"latency_seconds": 18.015349756926298,
"output_tokens": 1648,
"reasoning_tokens": 925,
"total_tokens": 18036
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio tilts to energy, agriculture, Brazil, gold and equal-weight US exposure whose base forecasts exceed SPY after the July 29 selloff, while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Seeks short-horizon alpha from geopolitics, commodity trends and breadth without pure tech concentration.
SPY base is modest after the 1.5% drop and elevated uncertainty; selected holdings clear the active hurdle via quality scores, prior active returns and catalysts inside the window. Allocations stay diversified across five clusters under the cap.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft data or earnings misses extend the post-FOMC weakness into the week",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed down 1.5% on July 29 at 7316.15",
"spy_return_5s -2.40% and majority of US stocks fell",
"FOMC held rates with elevated uncertainty cited"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained close above pre-selloff levels on strong data",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Bounce if July 30 GDP/PCE and mega-cap earnings stabilize sentiment",
"time_window_catalyst": "July 30 advance GDP, PCE and Apple/Amazon results"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium and oil strength persist through the scoring window",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"October Brent settled at 88.09 up 7.3%",
"prior_16s_active_return 9.62% and quality evidence score 0.691",
"Strait of Hormuz access and Middle East conflict unresolved"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent decline erasing recent gains or XLE break of recent lows",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or demand concerns reverse the energy bid",
"time_window_catalyst": "Middle East developments and any inventory/supply headlines before August 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity complex leadership and quality factors support relative gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.787 highest in table",
"prior_16s_active_return 5.62%",
"return_3s -2.66% offers pullback context"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "DBA break below recent range on broad commodity liquidation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-off or dollar strength hits non-energy commodities",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity price action and any crop/weather data into August 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity tailwinds and prior active trend continue",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.747",
"prior_16s_active_return 5.13%",
"commodity-sensitive EM exposure amid oil strength"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "EWZ underperformance versus EM peers or sharp commodity drop",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"reversal_case": "EM outflows or commodity reversal on stronger USD",
"time_window_catalyst": "US data reaction and commodity follow-through July 30-August 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Haven demand and policy uncertainty sustain bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.668",
"prior_16s_active_return 1.99%",
"FOMC noted elevated uncertainty partly from Middle East conflict"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU decline with rising yields or strong equity recovery",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on equity rebound or rising real yields pressure gold",
"time_window_catalyst": "Safe-haven flows around July 30 data and geopolitics"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth recovery and equal-weight leadership persist after mega-cap selloff",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_5s +3.83% and rsp_return_5s +1.42%",
"distance_52w_high only -0.90%",
"positive breadth contrast to cap-weighted weakness"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP lagging SPY on renewed mega-cap outperformance",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Return of concentration in large-growth names",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-data rotation and earnings breadth through August 5"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Risk appetite and prior trend extend crypto gains",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.732",
"prior_16s_active_return 8.38%",
"high volatility_21s 31.78%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "IBIT break of recent support on broader risk reduction",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"reversal_case": "Equity risk-off or liquidity squeeze hits high-beta crypto",
"time_window_catalyst": "Risk sentiment around July 30 data and weekend flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value/financial leadership continues after growth selloff",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.601",
"prior_16s_active_return 3.47%",
"active_return_5s +3.53%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperformance on weaker loan or growth signals",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield-curve or credit concerns reverse financials",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 3 SLOOS and rate-path reaction to data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.795,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Further equity selloff on soft GDP/PCE or weak Apple/Amazon results dragging cyclicals and EM",
"Sudden Middle East de-escalation removing energy premium",
"Dollar strength or real-yield rise pressuring gold and commodities",
"High volatility in oil and EM reversing recent relative strength"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp drop in Brent or resolution signals removing risk premium before exit close",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Geopolitical premium and prior active strength support higher base return than SPY over the short window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz tanker access into August 5 close"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-off liquidation or dollar spike reversing commodity bids",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"rationale": "Highest quality evidence score and positive prior active trend favor outperformance versus cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity price follow-through and any weather/inventory headlines before August 5"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "EM risk-off or commodity reversal exceeding recent drawdown levels",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"rationale": "Strong quality score and commodity-linked prior active return exceed SPY base case.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Commodity complex stability and EM flow reaction to US data July 30-August 4"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Real-yield spike or strong risk-on equity rebound reducing haven demand",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Elevated policy uncertainty and quality rank support defensive bid above SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Safe-haven demand around July 30 GDP/PCE and Middle East headlines"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "Renewed mega-cap leadership or equal-weight underperformance on risk-off",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Recent breadth outperformance versus SPY and lower concentration risk lift base forecast.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Post-selloff rotation and July 30-August 5 macro/earnings breadth reaction"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.295,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio tilts to energy, agriculture, Brazil, gold and equal-weight US exposure whose base forecasts exceed SPY after the July 29 selloff, while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Seeks short-horizon alpha from geopolitics, commodity trends and breadth without pure tech concentration.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest after the 1.5% drop and elevated uncertainty; selected holdings clear the active hurdle via quality scores, prior active returns and catalysts inside the window. Allocations stay diversified across five clusters under the cap.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-07-29-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16312,
"latency_seconds": 48.611385697033256,
"output_tokens": 2520,
"reasoning_tokens": 957,
"total_tokens": 19789
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)30%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15%Gold (IAU)15% | 0.66 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)30%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15%Energy Sector (XLE)10% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | Agriculture Commodities (DBA)25%Copper (CPER)25%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)15% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25%China Equities (MCHI)20% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Agriculture Commodities (DBA)20%Brazil Equities (EWZ)20%Gold (IAU)15%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-07-29 | 236.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-07-29 | 93.23 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-07-29 | 27.49 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-07-29 | 29.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-07-29 | 109.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-07-29 | 147.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-07-29 | 36.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-07-29 | 35.47 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-07-29 | 55.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-07-29 | 17.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-07-29 | 59.29 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-07-29 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-07-29 | 55.07 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-07-29 | 109.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-07-29 | 111.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-07-29 | 87.36 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-07-29 | 38.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-07-29 | 129.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-07-29 | 88.79 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-07-29 | 68.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-07-29 | 94.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-07-29 | 56.92 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-07-29 | 58.65 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-07-29 | 215.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-07-29 | 14.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-07-29 | 105.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-07-29 | 88.86 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-07-29 | 56.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-07-29 | 76.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-07-29 | 166.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-07-29 | 79.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-07-29 | 49.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-07-29 | 176.66 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-07-29 | 93.17 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-07-29 | 47.81 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-07-29 | 106.22 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-07-29 | 89.35 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-07-29 | 56.13 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-07-29 | 82.85 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-07-29 | 51.74 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-07-29 | 97.58 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-07-29 | 75.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-07-29 | 105.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-07-29 | 661.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-07-29 | 45.96 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-07-29 | 76.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-07-29 | 729.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-07-29 | 504.22 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-07-29 | 91.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-07-29 | 51.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-07-29 | 92.37 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-07-29 | 47.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-07-29 | 62.08 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-07-29 | 144.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-07-29 | 89.41 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-07-29 | 166.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-07-29 | 360.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-07-29 | 107.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-07-29 | 47.90 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-07-29 | 97.55 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-07-29 | 33.83 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-07-29 | 28.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-07-29 | 114.05 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-07-29 | 249.52 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-07-29 | 77.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-07-29 | 74.73 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-07-29 | 283.11 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-07-29 | 288.57 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-07-29 | 221.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-07-29 | 44.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 06e0bb383954...a308c3ca |
| manifest.yaml | 33e9fd06d9a3...00efa9ed |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 36a257a9482e...46bc6d6a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 1dbf8bf4365f...95da738d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 2ea51e89c130...568cef73 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | ba924e52d178...d0364178 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | bda7e5eb9e8d...1815ee00 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | a8554892869f...ba15417c |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |