Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 89.6 out of 100, with 100.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Claude Opus 5 is lowest at 60.3.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 61.0 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward defensive equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-08-20 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260813
34,688 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Healthcare Sector (XLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-13
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-13T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-13
- Exit date: 2026-08-20
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z. Market observations run through the August 12, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 13 close through the August 20 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 13 close through the September 14 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7,748.50, its first gain since setting an all-time high on August 7. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,588.49, the Russell 2000 gained 0.6% to 3,045.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1% to 53,770.27. Through August 12, the AP reported year-to-date gains of 13.2% for the S&P 500, 14.4% for the Nasdaq, 22.7% for the Russell 2000, and 11.9% for the Dow.
The U.S. Treasury's August 12 constant-maturity curve was 3.87% at three months, 4.00% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.38% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.24% at both twenty and thirty years. The two-, five-, and ten-year yields were respectively 2, 1, and 2 basis points below their August 11 levels; the thirty-year yield was unchanged. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields from indicative bid-side quotations.
The Associated Press reported Brent crude at $88.98 a barrel on August 12, up 0.1% for the session after moving between gains and losses. The AP reported continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict and crude flows.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%, down from 3.5%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months, down from a 2.6% annual rate in June.
Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1%; food at home fell 0.1%; food away from home rose 0.3%. Energy fell 1.5% in July and gasoline fell 2.9%, while the 12-month changes remained +14.7% for energy and +24.6% for gasoline. Airline fares rose 2.2% in July and 25.5% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, describing both as little changed. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June growth from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000.
The July labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, 0.7 percentage point below January. Average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier. Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health care employment rose by 22,000.
For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings and a 4.4% openings rate. Hires were 5.3 million, total separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Growth, demand, and production
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Business surveys
The Institute for Supply Management reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, up from 53.3 and the highest reading since May 2022. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM classified manufacturing as expanding, supplier deliveries as slowing, and customers' inventories as too low.
ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1 and new orders 57.2. Services employment was 47.4, in contraction, and the services prices index was 70.3. ISM reported expansion in 13 services industries and contraction in four.
ISM indexes are diffusion measures based on survey responses and indicate direction and breadth rather than dollar output levels.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Producer Price Index. This release occurs after the research cutoff and before the entry session.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census July advance retail sales.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July import and export prices.
- August 18, 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve July industrial production and capacity utilization.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- August 20, 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly scoring-window exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 26, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July personal income and outlays.
- August 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS July job openings and labor turnover.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August employment report.
- September 7: NYSE markets closed for Labor Day.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Producer Price Index.
- September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Consumer Price Index.
- September 14, 4:00 p.m. ET: monthly scoring-window exit close.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting, after the monthly exit.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to the publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-13-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-13'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-13T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-cbcb0bc7f6ba
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-13T03:18:07.670458+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-13'
exit_date: '2026-08-20'
created_at: '2026-08-13T03:18:07.670458+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh August 13, 2026 weekly production round. Research cutoff: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z. Entry and exit use official close prices.'# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z. Market observations run through the August 12, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 13 close through the August 20 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 13 close through the September 14 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7,748.50, its first gain since setting an all-time high on August 7. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,588.49, the Russell 2000 gained 0.6% to 3,045.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1% to 53,770.27. Through August 12, the AP reported year-to-date gains of 13.2% for the S&P 500, 14.4% for the Nasdaq, 22.7% for the Russell 2000, and 11.9% for the Dow.
The U.S. Treasury's August 12 constant-maturity curve was 3.87% at three months, 4.00% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.38% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.24% at both twenty and thirty years. The two-, five-, and ten-year yields were respectively 2, 1, and 2 basis points below their August 11 levels; the thirty-year yield was unchanged. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields from indicative bid-side quotations.
The Associated Press reported Brent crude at $88.98 a barrel on August 12, up 0.1% for the session after moving between gains and losses. The AP reported continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict and crude flows.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%, down from 3.5%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months, down from a 2.6% annual rate in June.
Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1%; food at home fell 0.1%; food away from home rose 0.3%. Energy fell 1.5% in July and gasoline fell 2.9%, while the 12-month changes remained +14.7% for energy and +24.6% for gasoline. Airline fares rose 2.2% in July and 25.5% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, describing both as little changed. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June growth from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000.
The July labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, 0.7 percentage point below January. Average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier. Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health care employment rose by 22,000.
For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings and a 4.4% openings rate. Hires were 5.3 million, total separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Growth, demand, and production
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Business surveys
The Institute for Supply Management reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, up from 53.3 and the highest reading since May 2022. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM classified manufacturing as expanding, supplier deliveries as slowing, and customers' inventories as too low.
ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1 and new orders 57.2. Services employment was 47.4, in contraction, and the services prices index was 70.3. ISM reported expansion in 13 services industries and contraction in four.
ISM indexes are diffusion measures based on survey responses and indicate direction and breadth rather than dollar output levels.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Producer Price Index. This release occurs after the research cutoff and before the entry session.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census July advance retail sales.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July import and export prices.
- August 18, 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve July industrial production and capacity utilization.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- August 20, 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly scoring-window exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 26, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July personal income and outlays.
- August 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS July job openings and labor turnover.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August employment report.
- September 7: NYSE markets closed for Labor Day.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Producer Price Index.
- September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Consumer Price Index.
- September 14, 4:00 p.m. ET: monthly scoring-window exit close.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting, after the monthly exit.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to the publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "c1531f7bcf8287a24759f94353d040d86f7a53050f9bebdc160b451f9eecbb0b",
"manifest.yaml": "919dfd9d5806523b9bf8aa5046b739226e39e8af7ee4ebe11911e26e18cec405",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "ab7826004db11708ae4aaff9428ac1662d2328b30d95d5aae25059b0be4dec99",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "7e084bf9795a23e49f4917f7775baea8cb9df8ed857abe1cf7cb6ce7234372ad",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "a69b1f26261bb1b589b2f012fba5f8af048e34ba56b1bcae3f6e6d18f9a09d26",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "d17a40f5388c9428beb191f21d0a6abdd5914c6fffc492459245fedb8e1d5b40",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "5b3342c41274c8a6f6944fd61ba7c5879b68251850f815f373625ec0199c3f43",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "567d17bff7928f7e724eaaf0a8f249cd213798b73b5b9d2a4905b2e82d8f3267",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "1a844da9c59ab06e30e88b53a60f08b23075e0cfd4df40bd80afc8570a93c261",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Tilt toward defensive/value equity leadership (healthcare, dividends, equal-weight breadth) plus gold, all showing positive relative trends with independent macro support: soft payrolls, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risk favor quality and hard assets over concentrated growth.
Overweight healthcare, dividend/value equity, equal-weight breadth, and gold against SPY given broadening market leadership, weak labor data, elevated inflation, and Iran-related uncertainty.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid GDP final sales (+3.9%) and strong ISM readings support grind higher",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 +0.3% Aug 12 to 7,748.50, first gain since Aug 7 all-time high",
"spy_return_21s +2.75%, near 52-week high (-0.10%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot PPI plus hawkish minutes trigger a rates-driven pullback",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls (-23k) and sticky inflation could cap upside near highs",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation, weak labor data, and geopolitical risk sustain safe-haven bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"iau_return_21s +8.80%, 5-session active +3.57%, prior active +2.31%",
"CPI 3.4% y/y with energy +14.7%; AP reports continued Iran conflict uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Real yields and dollar rise sharply on hawkish policy signals",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength (uup 5s +0.39%) or hawkish minutes lift real yields",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, FOMC minutes Aug 19, Iran headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive leadership with independent fundamental support persists amid soft macro",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"5-session active +2.26%, prior 16-session active +1.32%, at 52-week high",
"Health care was one of few sectors adding jobs (+22k in July)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector reverses relative gains as growth stocks resume leadership",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on growth rally leaves low-beta healthcare behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Macro data slate through FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Quality/value leadership persists with weak labor data favoring mature payers",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active +2.08% and recent active +1.49%, near 52-week high",
"Low 12.23% volatility, minimal SPY beta 0.07"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend factor gives back relative gains vs SPY on growth rally",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth rotation on dovish minutes reverses dividend outperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth expansion continues with Russell 2000 leading YTD (+22.7%)",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP beat SPY by 0.26% (5s) and 0.83% (21s)",
"positive_asset_share_21s 72.46% indicates broadening participation"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP-SPY spread turns negative on renewed mega-cap leadership",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap concentration reasserts, equal weight lags",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14, industrial production Aug 18"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Iran escalation keeps crude and energy equities bid",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"3-session return +6.14%, 5-session active +6.14% after Brent at $88.98",
"Prior 16-session active -1.76%; USO 5s +10.81% on Iran uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent retraces below pre-spike levels on de-escalation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Spike-driven gains vulnerable to de-escalation; reversal risk high after 10%+ oil move",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict headlines through Aug 20"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration if data softens further",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"tlt_return_21s -1.95%, 30-year yield at 5.24%",
"CPI 3.4% y/y and hawkish FOMC dissent (3 for hike)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "30-year yield breaks above 5.30% on inflation data",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation and hawkish minutes push long yields higher",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Oversold bounce could extend if risk appetite improves",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active -7.49%, drawdown -16.01%, volatility 48.61%",
"5-session active +2.31% bounce, but -12.57% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Bounce fades and relative downtrend resumes",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Deep drawdown and highest-vol profile; no supplied catalyst supports recovery",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified before Aug 20 exit"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"cost_usd": 0.45684,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.35,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A dovish read of FOMC minutes could reignite mega-cap growth leadership, hurting equal-weight and defensive tilts",
"Hot PPI or retail sales could push real yields and the dollar higher, pressuring gold",
"Geopolitical de-escalation could unwind safe-haven gold gains quickly"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hawkish minutes drive real yields and dollar sharply higher",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Strong prior and recent relative trend, elevated inflation (CPI 3.4%, energy +14.7% y/y) and Iran-related uncertainty support safe-haven demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, FOMC minutes Aug 19; geopolitical risk around Iran"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rally in growth sectors leaves defensives lagging",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive recent and prior active returns, low SPY beta (-0.22), at 52-week high, defensive earnings in a slowing labor market.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation on macro data (retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes Aug 19)"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Rotation back into mega-cap growth reverses value/dividend leadership",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Best combined prior (+2.08%) and recent (+1.49%) active return among diversified equity; near 52-week high with low volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued rotation to quality/value equities into FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Breadth narrows and mega-caps resume leadership over equal weight",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Market breadth improving: RSP beat SPY by 0.26% over 5 sessions and 0.83% over 21; positive asset share 72% over 21 sessions.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Broadening participation through retail sales and industrial production data"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive/value equity leadership (healthcare, dividends, equal-weight breadth) plus gold, all showing positive relative trends with independent macro support: soft payrolls, sticky inflation, and geopolitical risk favor quality and hard assets over concentrated growth.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Overweight healthcare, dividend/value equity, equal-weight breadth, and gold against SPY given broadening market leadership, weak labor data, elevated inflation, and Iran-related uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.45684,
"input_tokens": 28224,
"latency_seconds": 50.27139760996215,
"output_tokens": 3492,
"total_tokens": 31716
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Blend of defensive healthcare leadership, gold safe-haven momentum, and core SPY exposure to modestly outperform with lower drawdown risk.
Healthcare and gold both show strong recent active returns with low SPY correlation, providing diversification while SPY anchors the core.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid GDP final sales, strong ISM manufacturing support equity uptrend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY +0.3% Aug 12, first gain since Aug 7 ATH",
"YTD +13.2%, positive breadth 72% 21s"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below prior support on inflation surprise",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot PPI/CPI or weak retail sales trigger pullback from ATH",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues amid soft labor data",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+2.26% active return 5s, +1.32% prior active",
"Negative SPY beta -0.215, low drawdown"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses active-return leadership",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation into growth leaves defensives behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand from soft labor and geopolitical risk persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.57% active 5s, +8.8% IAU 21s",
"Prior active rank 0.881"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold falls with rising real yields",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "USD rally or real yields spike",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical crude supply risk sustains energy",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE +6.14% 3s, oil +10.81% 5s",
"Brent $88.98 with Iran uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls back below $85",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Sharp mean-reversion after extreme spike, worst recent pullback rank",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive dividend leadership persists",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+1.49% active 5s, +2.08% prior active",
"Very low SPY beta 0.07"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD loses relative momentum",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth rotation reduces relative strength",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent strength continues with yen dynamics",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+2.41% active 5s, at 52w high",
"Low prior active rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yen sharp rally hurts exporters",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "High volatility 24.5%, weak prior rank suggests fragility",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global trade headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Duration bid on weak labor data",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -1.07% 5s, -1.95% 21s",
"30y yield 5.24%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Long yields rise on hot inflation",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation keeps long yields high",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior rank and low drawdown",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"High quality score 0.724, low vol 10.8%",
"-0.49% active 5s recently lagging"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF continues underperforming SPY",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Recent active weakness, curve concerns",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.43,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot PPI/CPI or retail sales sparking risk-on growth rally that leaves defensives behind",
"Gold pullback on USD strength or rising real yields",
"FOMC minutes signaling hawkish tilt hurting rate-sensitive positioning"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV drops below 5s active return leadership or broad risk-on rotation into growth",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent active return (+2.26% 5s), low SPY beta/correlation, defensive quality with high prior rank.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp USD rally or real yields spike higher",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Strong momentum (+3.57% active 5s, +8.8% 21s IAU), safe-haven demand amid soft labor data and geopolitical crude uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19, softer labor backdrop"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below recent range on hot inflation print",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure at all-time high area with positive breadth.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.73,
"portfolio_rationale": "Blend of defensive healthcare leadership, gold safe-haven momentum, and core SPY exposure to modestly outperform with lower drawdown risk.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Healthcare and gold both show strong recent active returns with low SPY correlation, providing diversification while SPY anchors the core.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28230,
"latency_seconds": 39.05623474996537,
"output_tokens": 2426,
"total_tokens": 30656
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Barbell of defensive quality equity (healthcare, financials), international value (Europe) and gold hedge against sticky inflation, anchored by SPY. Avoids stretched high-beta tech and parabolic energy/oil moves.
SPY base +0.35% for the week; portfolio tilts to higher quality-evidence, lower-volatility exposures with independent macro support rather than chasing the oil and semis spikes.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Uptrend intact, disinflation in core CPI, strong ISM manufacturing 55.6",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 +0.3% Aug 12 to 7,748.50, near Aug 7 record",
"YTD +13.2%; 21-session return +2.75%",
"Positive asset share 72% over 21 sessions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes more than 3% below entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Negative July payrolls, GDP slowing to 1.5%, three FOMC hawks dissenting",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low-beta defensive leadership with positive trend and low drawdown",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active return +1.32%, active_5s +2.26%",
"At 52-week high with beta -0.215 to SPY",
"Health care employment rose 22,000 in July"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 2% below entry",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Sharp cyclical risk-on rotation would leave defensives behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14; FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steep curve and solid economy support bank earnings power",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.724 with low volatility 10.8%",
"Prior 16s active +0.85%, drawdown only -1.62%",
"Curve steep: 3m 3.87% vs 30y 5.24%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "HYG falls more than 1% or XLF lags SPY by 1.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Financial-activities payrolls fell 14,000; credit deterioration risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Steady relative outperformance with low volatility",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +1.50%, volatility 11.7%",
"Quality score 0.702, drawdown -1.60%",
"Near 52-week high (-0.38%)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "VGK drops more than 2% or euro falls sharply",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength (UUP +0.39% 5s) can erode USD-denominated returns",
"time_window_catalyst": "US macro prints Aug 14-19 driving FX"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky inflation plus soft labor supports easing expectations and metals",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +3.92% over 5 sessions, +8.80% over 21",
"Headline CPI 3.4%, core PCE 3.3% over 12 months",
"July payrolls -23,000 with large downward revisions"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield above 4.85% or IAU falls 3%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Recent pullback rank low (0.134) signals stretched short-term move",
"time_window_catalyst": "July PPI Aug 13; FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Iran conflict uncertainty keeps crude supply risk premium",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE active_5s +6.14%; USO +10.46%",
"Brent $88.98, up 0.1% on Aug 12",
"Recent pullback rank 0.015 (most extended)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $84",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Sharp one-week spike is prone to mean reversion if headlines calm",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-related crude headlines during the week"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent 5s active +2.31% suggests bounce underway",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Volatility 48.6%, max drawdown -16.0%",
"Prior 16s active -7.49%, quality score 0.068",
"12.6% below 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH falls more than 5%",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Extremely high beta 3.0 amplifies any macro disappointment",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14; FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak labor data could pull yields lower",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IEF active_5s -0.73%, prior 16s -2.02%",
"10y 4.68%, down 2bp on Aug 12",
"Volume z-score 3.42"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield rises above 4.85%",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Inflation still 3.4% and three FOMC hawks favor hikes",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13; FOMC minutes Aug 19"
}
],
"confidence": 0.53,
"cost_usd": 0.220995,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.31,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Mega-cap tech leadership resumes, causing cap-weighted SPY to outrun defensives",
"Hot July PPI on Aug 13 lifts yields and hurts gold and rate-sensitive equities",
"Hawkish FOMC minutes Aug 19 triggers a broad risk-off move",
"Dollar strength drags Europe and gold returns"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.75,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 2% below entry or drug-pricing policy shock",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive prior active trend, low beta and at 52-week high; diversifies from mega-cap tech risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14 and FOMC minutes Aug 19 shifting flows to defensives"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Credit spreads widen sharply or XLF underperforms SPY by more than 1.5%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "High quality-evidence score, low volatility, steady positive prior active return, supported by solid PMI and steep curve.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19; retail sales Aug 14"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar rallies sharply or VGK drops over 2%",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"rationale": "Strong prior relative trend with low volatility and minimal drawdown; diversifies US mega-cap concentration.",
"time_window_catalyst": "US data flow Aug 14-19 and dollar moves"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot PPI lifting real yields and 10-year above 4.85%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Strong prior active trend with sticky 3.4% headline CPI and negative payrolls supporting safe-haven demand.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July PPI Aug 13 and FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad equity drawdown beyond 3%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Benchmark anchor to limit tracking error in a trending tape.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI Aug 13, retail sales Aug 14, FOMC minutes Aug 19"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.66,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of defensive quality equity (healthcare, financials), international value (Europe) and gold hedge against sticky inflation, anchored by SPY. Avoids stretched high-beta tech and parabolic energy/oil moves.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base +0.35% for the week; portfolio tilts to higher quality-evidence, lower-volatility exposures with independent macro support rather than chasing the oil and semis spikes.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.220995,
"input_tokens": 28224,
"latency_seconds": 47.08552705007605,
"output_tokens": 3195,
"total_tokens": 31419
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}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio balances strong momentum in the energy sector with the defensive characteristics of healthcare. Both sectors have shown recent strength and offer a mix of cyclical and defensive exposure.
A balanced approach utilizing energy momentum and healthcare defensiveness.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued economic expansion and stable inflation.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7,748.50.",
"Year-to-date gain of 13.2%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant miss in upcoming economic data releases.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Unexpected negative economic data or a resurgence in inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming retail sales and industrial production data."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting oil prices.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $88.98 a barrel on August 12.",
"Continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict and crude flows."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in crude oil prices or a resolution to geopolitical tensions.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A resolution to geopolitical conflicts or a sudden increase in oil supply.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical uncertainty supporting oil prices."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued defensive rotation and stable earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Health care employment rose by 22,000.",
"Strong prior active rank of 0.806."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden shift towards high-beta growth sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A sudden shift towards high-beta growth sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued defensive rotation and stable earnings."
},
{
"continuation_case": "A flight to safety or weaker-than-expected economic data.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Thirty-year yield was unchanged at 5.24%.",
"Recent pullback rank of 0.896."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant increase in long-term interest rates.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Stronger-than-expected economic data or higher inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Upcoming economic data releases."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued demand for safe-haven assets.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank of 0.881.",
"Return_3s of 1.59%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant strengthening of the US dollar.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A strong US dollar or rising real interest rates.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical events or changes in inflation expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong earnings from mega-cap tech companies.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,588.49.",
"Volatility_21s of 34.12%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant increase in interest rates.",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Rising interest rates or a shift towards value sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech company earnings or product announcements."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.85,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden drop in oil prices could negatively impact the energy allocation.",
"A rapid shift in market sentiment towards high-growth sectors could lead to underperformance of healthcare.",
"Broader market volatility could affect both sectors."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in crude oil prices or a resolution to geopolitical tensions.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum and high quality evidence score, supported by crude oil price stability.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued geopolitical uncertainty supporting oil prices."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "A sudden shift towards high-beta growth sectors.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent performance and positive employment data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued defensive rotation and stable earnings."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.35,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances strong momentum in the energy sector with the defensive characteristics of healthcare. Both sectors have shown recent strength and offer a mix of cyclical and defensive exposure.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach utilizing energy momentum and healthcare defensiveness.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17399,
"latency_seconds": 13.029083150904626,
"output_tokens": 1593,
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio favors four active exposures with base forecasts above SPY while limiting every non-benchmark cluster to 30% or less. Defensive equity leadership, software's prior relative trend, and gold's macro diversification provide multiple paths to outperformance.
A mixed growth and inflation backdrop near an equity-market high favors selective relative-strength exposures rather than concentrated benchmark risk. The weighted base forecast is 0.49%, implying 0.34 percentage point of expected alpha.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.15,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad positive participation, solid private domestic demand, and expanding manufacturing and services could carry the index to new highs.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 0.35% over five sessions and 2.75% over 21 sessions.",
"The index closed only 0.10% below its 52-week high.",
"Positive asset breadth was 59.42% over five sessions, but payrolls fell by 23,000 and prior months were revised lower."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.15,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.3,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks decisively to a new high with improving breadth, or falls more than 2% as breadth and credit weaken together.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Near-record positioning, elevated inflation, weak payrolls, or hawkish policy interpretation could trigger a pullback.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales, August 18 industrial production, and August 19 FOMC minutes."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent relative strength and lower volatility can attract flows if investors favor profitable defensive companies.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend equities beat SPY by 1.49% over five sessions and by 2.08% in the prior 16-session window.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.650, with a 0.866 prior active rank.",
"Its 21-session volatility was 12.23%, below SPY's 13.73%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities underperform SPY by more than 1 percentage point after retail sales or lose their recent relative-strength trend.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "A sharp mega-cap growth rally or rapid rise in risk appetite could leave dividend equities behind.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 19 FOMC minutes may favor profitable, dividend-oriented equities if growth or policy concerns persist."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Positive relative trends across both measured windows and defensive demand can extend leadership.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare beat SPY by 2.26% over five sessions and by 1.32% in the prior window.",
"It gained 1.67% over the latest three sessions and was at its 52-week high.",
"July payrolls fell by 23,000, supporting a possible defensive rotation."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses its recent leadership and underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point during the window.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Profit taking after the move to a new high or a strong cyclical rally could reverse relative gains.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 19 FOMC minutes could reinforce defensive rotation if growth expectations weaken."
},
{
"continuation_case": "The strong prior relative trend can resume if scheduled data eases long-rate pressure on growth valuations.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Software beat SPY by 1.40% over five sessions and by 5.81% in the prior 16-session window.",
"Its prior active rank was 0.985, the highest in the quality table.",
"The 31.92% volatility and 7.28% drawdown indicate substantial reversal risk."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields rise materially after scheduled data or software underperforms SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Hot data or hawkish minutes could lift yields and amplify losses in this high-volatility exposure.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales, August 18 industrial production, and August 19 FOMC minutes could lower rate expectations and support long-duration growth equities."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical uncertainty, weak labor data, and declining headline CPI can sustain safe-haven and real-rate-sensitive demand.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Gold beat SPY by 3.57% over five sessions and by 2.31% in the prior window.",
"Gold gained 8.80% over 21 sessions.",
"Iran-related uncertainty persists, while the quality score was only 0.553 and recent pullback rank was 0.134."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
"invalidation_condition": "The dollar and long-term Treasury yields rise together while gold falls more than 2% from the entry close.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "The strong recent run may unwind if geopolitical tension eases or yields and the dollar rise.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 18 price data and August 19 FOMC minutes may move real-rate expectations, while Iran-related uncertainty can sustain safe-haven demand."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Further threats to crude flows could extend the geopolitical supply premium.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Oil beat SPY by 10.46% over five sessions after a 7.90% three-session rise.",
"Its prior active return was -6.79%, indicating a sharp reversal rather than an established trend.",
"Volatility was 64.64%, and Brent faced continued Iran-related flow uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil gives back more than one-third of its latest five-session gain or Iran-related supply concerns ease.",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or profit taking after the abrupt surge could produce a large weekly decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-conflict developments and any associated change in expected crude flows before the exit close."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak retail sales or industrial production could lower yields and generate a rebound from the pullback.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Intermediate Treasuries lagged SPY by 0.73% over five sessions and by 2.02% in the prior window.",
"The quality score was 0.637, supported by low volatility and a recent pullback rank of 0.791.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.68%, while three FOMC voters had preferred a rate increase."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "The 10-year Treasury yield rises materially above its August 12 level following scheduled releases.",
"option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Hot data or hawkish minutes could reinforce inflation concerns and push yields higher.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales, August 18 industrial production, and August 19 FOMC minutes."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.34,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Strong retail sales or hawkish FOMC minutes could lift yields and pressure software and gold.",
"A broad risk-on rally led by mega-cap equities could cause defensive dividend and healthcare holdings to lag SPY.",
"Recent strength in healthcare and gold could reverse through short-horizon profit taking.",
"Geopolitical de-escalation involving Iran could reduce safe-haven demand for gold."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend equities underperform SPY by more than 1 percentage point after retail sales or lose their recent relative-strength trend.",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Positive prior and recent benchmark-relative performance, moderate volatility, and a 0.650 quality score support continued defensive leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 19 FOMC minutes may favor profitable, dividend-oriented equities if growth or policy concerns persist."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare reverses its recent leadership and underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point during the window.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare combines strong recent and prior active returns with defensive exposure amid weak payroll data and event risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 19 FOMC minutes could reinforce defensive rotation if growth expectations weaken."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Treasury yields rise materially after scheduled data or software underperforms SPY by more than 1.5 percentage points.",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Software has the strongest prior active trend among the finalists and retained positive recent active momentum despite its elevated volatility.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales, August 18 industrial production, and August 19 FOMC minutes could lower rate expectations and support long-duration growth equities."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "The dollar and long-term Treasury yields rise together while gold falls more than 2% from the entry close.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold has positive prior and recent relative momentum, with geopolitical uncertainty and soft labor data providing independent support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 18 price data and August 19 FOMC minutes may move real-rate expectations, while Iran-related uncertainty can sustain safe-haven demand."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.49,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors four active exposures with base forecasts above SPY while limiting every non-benchmark cluster to 30% or less. Defensive equity leadership, software's prior relative trend, and gold's macro diversification provide multiple paths to outperformance.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "A mixed growth and inflation backdrop near an equity-market high favors selective relative-strength exposures rather than concentrated benchmark risk. The weighted base forecast is 0.49%, implying 0.34 percentage point of expected alpha.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 38.903813001001254,
"output_tokens": 2678,
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"total_tokens": 18526
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Selected holdings show base-case forecasts exceeding SPY while respecting cluster caps and one-week horizon.
Value, healthcare, and gold allocations target relative strength and defensive characteristics amid softening labor data.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.4,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad equity participation remains positive with 59% of assets positive over 5 days",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7748.50 on August 12 after first gain since August 7 high",
"July nonfarm payrolls -23000 with downward revisions to prior months"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.1,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Further labor-market weakness or higher-than-expected PPI on August 13 triggers rotation out of equities",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Value factor continues to benefit from higher-for-longer rates environment",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"LARGE_VALUE quality evidence score 0.701 highest among large-cap options",
"Prior 16-week active return +1.37% versus SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Growth stocks rebound sharply on positive retail sales surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive characteristics persist amid labor-market softening",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active return +2.26% over trailing 5 days",
"Health care employment rose 22000 in July while overall payrolls declined"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Broad risk-on rotation lifts cyclicals more than defensives",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand supported by geopolitical and labor-market concerns",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD 5-day return +3.92% and prior 16-week active return +2.31%",
"Brent crude uncertainty tied to Iran conflict noted in August 12 reporting"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger-than-expected economic data reduces haven bids",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Higher rates support net interest margins for banks",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS quality evidence score 0.724 second-highest overall",
"Financial activities employment fell 14000 in July"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Yield-curve flattening accelerates on stronger growth data",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Commodity price stability supports materials equities",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"MATERIALS quality evidence score 0.675",
"Industrial production rose only 0.1% in June"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"reversal_case": "Weaker retail sales data signals slower industrial demand",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "European equities benefit from global risk appetite",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"EUROPE quality evidence score 0.702",
"Developed ex-US 5-day active return +0.96%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Stronger US data widens transatlantic growth differential",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unexpectedly strong retail sales data lifting growth-sensitive equities",
"Resolution of Iran-related crude uncertainty reducing safe-haven flows",
"FOMC minutes on August 19 signaling less dovish stance than expected"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Value tilt with strong quality evidence and recent relative strength versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive sector with positive active return and employment resilience in July data.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes above its August 7 high by more than 1%",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Safe-haven demand supported by labor-market softening and geopolitical crude uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 18 industrial production data"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.96,
"portfolio_rationale": "Selected holdings show base-case forecasts exceeding SPY while respecting cluster caps and one-week horizon.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Value, healthcare, and gold allocations target relative strength and defensive characteristics amid softening labor data.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16069,
"latency_seconds": 30.441327881999314,
"output_tokens": 1713,
"reasoning_tokens": 605,
"total_tokens": 18387
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio concentrates in ENERGY, HEALTHCARE, GOLD, and COPPER, each with base forecasts above SPY, spanning distinct clusters under the 50% cap. Selections emphasize recent leadership, quality evidence, and catalysts inside the August 13-20 window while limiting single-cluster risk.
SPY base is modest near highs after a soft labor print and mixed inflation. Higher-base active holdings in energy, healthcare, gold, and copper are favored for one-week alpha with diversified economic exposures.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid ISM readings and consumer spending keep broad equities grinding higher near highs.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to all-time-high area after prior session weakness",
"spy_return_5s 0.35% and distance_52w_high -0.10%",
"July payrolls -23k with downward revisions; FOMC held 3.50-3.75%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Close-to-close weekly loss exceeding 1.5% or break of recent range lows",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft labor and elevated inflation prints trigger risk-off or rate-repricing selloff.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI August 13, retail sales August 14, FOMC minutes August 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium and recent momentum persist through the short window.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY return_3s 6.14% and active_return_5s 6.14%",
"Brent crude $88.98 with continued Iran conflict and crude-flow uncertainty",
"OIL/USO also showed large positive active returns"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Crude and XLE give back majority of 5-session gains before August 20",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation headlines or demand concerns reverse the oil spike.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-related crude headlines and industrial production August 18"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid and relative strength continue amid mixed macro data.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE active_return_5s 2.26% and return_3s 1.67%",
"distance_52w_high 0.00% and quality evidence score 0.552",
"Health care employment rose while broader payrolls were soft"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV underperforms SPY by more than 1% on a multi-day basis",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation back into growth/tech leaves healthcare lagging.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows around PPI/retail sales and FOMC minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Inflation residual and safe-haven demand sustain gold strength.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD active_return_5s 3.57% and iau_return_5s 3.92%",
"prior_16s_active_return 2.31% with quality score 0.553",
"Headline CPI 3.4% and core still elevated versus 2% goal"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold posts multi-day decline with rising UUP and yields",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger USD or rising real yields reverse the metal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI, retail sales, and FOMC minutes impact on real rates/USD"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Industrial expansion signals and prior trend support further gains.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"COPPER quality evidence score 0.828 (highest listed)",
"prior_16s_active_return 3.60% and recent pullback rank 0.955",
"ISM manufacturing PMI 55.6 with prices elevated"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Copper breaks recent support with rising inventory or USD strength",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"reversal_case": "Global growth scare or China demand disappointment hits copper.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production and capacity utilization August 18"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stable credit and modest yield moves support financials grind.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"FINANCIALS quality evidence score 0.724 and prior active rank 0.761",
"active_return_5s -0.49% despite solid longer prior trend",
"Yield curve still inverted/steepening modestly at long end"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLF underperforms SPY materially on rising credit stress",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Curve or credit-spread widening on soft data hurts banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes and any rate-path repricing"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mean-reversion from deep discount if global risk appetite holds.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"CHINA quality evidence score 0.804 with high prior active rank 0.910",
"return_3s -2.63% and active_return_5s -2.01%",
"distance_52w_high -16.22%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Further active underperformance versus EM/SPY on weak data",
"option_id": "CHINA",
"reversal_case": "Policy or growth disappointment extends underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global risk sentiment and any China-related headlines before August 20"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Dividend factor leadership continues in range-bound tape.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"DIVIDEND active_return_5s 1.49% and prior_16s_active_return 2.08%",
"quality evidence score 0.650 with high prior active rank",
"distance_52w_high -0.03%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD loses relative strength versus SPY on risk-on move",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth reacceleration leaves value/dividend lagging.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around macro prints"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.035,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Geopolitical de-escalation could reverse energy and commodity gains",
"Hotter-than-expected PPI or retail sales could lift yields and pressure gold",
"Broad equity risk-off could compress active returns across cyclical holdings",
"FOMC minutes could reprice rate path and rotate leadership back to mega-cap growth"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp reversal in Brent/crude prices or risk-off equity selloff that erases energy leadership before exit close",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent absolute and active returns plus ongoing Iran-related crude uncertainty support continued outperformance versus SPY over the one-week window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued Iran conflict uncertainty and crude price action through August 20 close; PPI and industrial production data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad growth/tech leadership resumption that leaves healthcare lagging SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Positive active returns, new 52-week high proximity, and defensive characteristics amid soft labor data favor relative strength versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes August 19 and any defensive rotation on mixed macro prints"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp USD rally or real-yield spike that drives gold lower before August 20",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Elevated prior active trend and recent strength with inflation still above target support further gains versus SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Real-rate and dollar reaction to PPI, retail sales, and FOMC minutes"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Sudden demand scare or inventory spike reversing copper strength",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "Top quality-evidence score, strong prior active return, and industrial demand backdrop support base-case outperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Industrial production release August 18 and China/global growth sentiment"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.385,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio concentrates in ENERGY, HEALTHCARE, GOLD, and COPPER, each with base forecasts above SPY, spanning distinct clusters under the 50% cap. Selections emphasize recent leadership, quality evidence, and catalysts inside the August 13-20 window while limiting single-cluster risk.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest near highs after a soft labor print and mixed inflation. Higher-base active holdings in energy, healthcare, gold, and copper are favored for one-week alpha with diversified economic exposures.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17221,
"latency_seconds": 48.34551217406988,
"output_tokens": 2580,
"reasoning_tokens": 540,
"total_tokens": 20341
}
}xai-grok-4-6
The book overweights healthcare, energy, Japan, financials, and gold because each has a higher one-week base case than SPY after a near-record S&P close, mixed inflation, and a still-on-hold Fed. Cluster weights stay at or below 50% and avoid concentrated mega-cap growth that already sits farther from highs.
SPY is treated as a modest positive but not the best weekly vehicle after an all-time high and a data-heavy week. Selected sleeves combine recent relative strength, quality ranks, and identifiable catalysts that can move prices before the August 20 close.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Soft-landing mix of 1.5% Q2 GDP, expanding ISM, and a first up-day after the high keeps the index grinding higher.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed August 12 at 7748.50, up 0.3% and just off the August 7 all-time high",
"SPY 5-session return was 0.35% with distance to 52-week high of -0.10%",
"FOMC held 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 with inflation still above 2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes the week below the August 12 bounce and loses the August 7 high decisively",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Hot PPI/retail or hawkish minutes could reverse the post-high bounce given only a 0.10% cushion to the 52-week high.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI August 13, retail sales August 14, FOMC minutes August 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive earnings and fresh highs can persist if growth data stay soft and services inflation remains sticky.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare 5-session active return was +2.26% and 3-session return +1.67%",
"Distance to 52-week high is 0.00%",
"July health-care payrolls rose 22,000 while overall payrolls were -23,000"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses the 52-week high and underperforms SPY on a risk-on rebound after PPI/retail",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A broad risk-on catch-up in cyclicals after strong retail sales could fade the relative lead.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 19 FOMC minutes versus still-elevated services prices"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply premium and still-high 12-month energy CPI can keep the complex bid for one more week.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Energy 5-session active return was +6.14% and 3-session return +6.14%",
"Brent was $88.98 on August 12 with AP citing Iran-conflict crude-flow uncertainty",
"Oil 5-session return was +10.81%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
"forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses the August 12 bid and energy gives back the 5-session outperformance versus SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "A 6–10% five-day surge is extended and can reverse quickly if headlines cool.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued Iran-conflict crude-flow headlines and August 18 import/export prices"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Global manufacturing expansion and Japan’s fresh high can continue if industrial production does not disappoint.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Japan 5-session active return was +2.41% and 3-session return +0.92%",
"Distance to 52-week high is 0.00%",
"July manufacturing PMI was 55.6, highest since May 2022"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Japan breaks the 52-week high and 5-session active lead versus SPY reverses",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "High 21-session volatility (24.51%) and yen swings can unwind the weekly lead.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 18 industrial production and yen/risk reaction to FOMC minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "A positively sloped long curve and shallow drawdown support modest weekly outperformance versus mega-cap SPY.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Financials quality-evidence score was 0.724 with prior-active rank 0.761",
"21-session volatility was 10.80% and max drawdown -1.62%",
"Treasury 10-year was 4.68% and 30-year 5.24% on August 12"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield jumps and financials lag SPY after the minutes",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"reversal_case": "Financial activities payrolls fell 14,000 in July and a hawkish minutes surprise could hit banks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 19 FOMC minutes and the Treasury curve after PPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Softer labor and a paused Fed can keep real-rate pressure contained enough for gold to extend.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Gold 5-session return was +3.92% and 21-session return +8.80%",
"Gold 5-session active return was +3.57%",
"Headline CPI eased to 3.4% while the Fed stayed on hold"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold gives back the 5-session gain as the dollar and real yields rise together",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "A stronger dollar (UUP +0.39% over 5 sessions) or hotter PPI can reverse the metal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI on August 13 and FOMC minutes on August 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High quality rank and expanding ISM services could stabilize Europe near highs.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Europe quality-evidence score was 0.702 with prior-active rank 0.836",
"5-session active return was only +0.08% and 3-session return -0.38%",
"Distance to 52-week high is -0.38%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_low_pct": -1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Europe underperforms SPY through retail sales and the minutes",
"option_id": "EUROPE",
"reversal_case": "Recent 3-session softness and energy-price uncertainty can keep Europe behind SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 18 import/export prices and FOMC minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "High prior-active rank and near-high price can persist if the tape stays rotational.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Dividend 5-session active return was +1.49% and 3-session return +1.06%",
"Quality-evidence score was 0.650 with prior-active rank 0.866",
"SPY correlation over 63 sessions was only 0.083"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.25,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Dividend factor gives back the 5-session active lead versus SPY",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Low beta to SPY may lag if the index simply extends the August 12 bounce.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales"
}
],
"confidence": 0.54,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.24,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hot PPI or retail print could extend the August 7 SPY high and leave cyclicals/gold lagging",
"Energy’s large 5-session gain can mean-revert if Iran-flow headlines fade",
"High-beta Japan and gold can reverse together if the dollar strengthens after FOMC minutes",
"Payroll revisions and 4.1% unemployment leave downside if growth data disappoints all risk assets"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 0.55,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses the 52-week high and underperforms SPY on a risk-on rebound after PPI/retail",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent relative strength, new highs, and defensive earnings mix can outperform a near-ATH SPY if PPI/retail prints keep growth soft but not collapsing.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 14 retail sales and August 19 FOMC minutes versus still-elevated services prices"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.65,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent reverses the August 12 bid and energy gives back the 5-session outperformance versus SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil and energy already repriced higher on Iran-flow uncertainty; residual geopolitical premium can persist through the weekly window if crude stays bid.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued Iran-conflict crude-flow headlines and August 18 import/export prices"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Japan breaks the 52-week high and 5-session active lead versus SPY reverses",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Japan showed the strongest developed-market 5-session active return and sits at a 52-week high with ISM expansion still supportive of global cyclicals.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 18 industrial production and yen/risk reaction to FOMC minutes"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.45,
"invalidation_condition": "10-year yield jumps and financials lag SPY after the minutes",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"rationale": "High quality-evidence rank, shallow drawdown, and a still-steep long end of the Treasury curve support a modest weekly edge over cap-weighted SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 19 FOMC minutes and the Treasury curve after PPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold gives back the 5-session gain as the dollar and real yields rise together",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Gold’s 5- and 21-session strength can continue if softer labor/CPI path keeps real-rate upside limited after the July hold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI on August 13 and FOMC minutes on August 19"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.54,
"portfolio_rationale": "The book overweights healthcare, energy, Japan, financials, and gold because each has a higher one-week base case than SPY after a near-record S&P close, mixed inflation, and a still-on-hold Fed. Cluster weights stay at or below 50% and avoid concentrated mega-cap growth that already sits farther from highs.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is treated as a modest positive but not the best weekly vehicle after an all-time high and a data-heavy week. Selected sleeves combine recent relative strength, quality ranks, and identifiable catalysts that can move prices before the August 20 close.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16933,
"latency_seconds": 54.4231658289209,
"output_tokens": 2581,
"reasoning_tokens": 984,
"total_tokens": 20498
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Gold (IAU)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Gold (IAU)30%S&P 500 (SPY)35% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Europe Equities (VGK)20%Gold (IAU)15%S&P 500 (SPY)15% | 0.53 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Energy Sector (XLE)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)50% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Dividend Equities (SCHD)25%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Software (IGV)20%Gold (IAU)25% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Gold (IAU)25% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Gold (IAU)20%Copper (CPER)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Japan Equities (EWJ)20%Financials Sector (XLF)15%Gold (IAU)15% | 0.54 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | c1531f7bcf82...9eecbb0b |
| manifest.yaml | 919dfd9d5806...18cec405 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | ab7826004db1...be4dec99 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 7e084bf9795a...234372ad |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | a69b1f26261b...f9a09d26 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | d17a40f5388c...8e1d5b40 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 5b3342c41274...199c3f43 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 567d17bff792...2d8f3267 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | 1a844da9c59a...0a93c261 |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |