Round audit packet

CB-2026-07-27-1W

Name: CB-2026-07-27-1W CapitalBench audit dataset
Published: 2026-07-27

Weekly round one week

One-week market allocation evaluation round.

Test CB-2026-07-27-1W pending

Portfolios Frozen By 2026-07-28

Start Date 2026-07-27

End Date 2026-08-03

Run ID official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260727-clean

1 Inputs saved
11 public audit hashes are available.
2 Portfolios collected
8 valid model portfolios.
3 Start priced
70 starting-price rows published.
4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-08-03 prices are available.

Round state

Score Pending

This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.

Pending

Model portfolios

8 valid portfolios

No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.

Asset list

70 saved choices

v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.

Scoring

Ending prices pending

Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.

Input audit hashes

11 artifacts published.

Public run selected

official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260727-clean

Model-facing prompt available

32,079 shared prompt characters.

Ending prices pending

Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.

Model consensus

Where Models Concentrated In This Round

Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.

Score pending

Top exposure 26.3%

Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Top 3 exposures 61.3%

Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.

Effective spread 6.2 assets

Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.

Average allocation across 8 model portfolios Assets

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 8 models: Claude Opus 4.8 30% / GPT-5.5 30% / GPT-5.6 Sol 30% / Grok 4.5 30% / +4 more

26.3%

Financials Sector (XLF) 7 models: GPT-5.5 25% / GPT-5.6 Sol 25% / Grok 4.5 25% / Claude Fable 5 20% / +3 more

19.4%

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 5 models: Claude Opus 5 30% / Claude Fable 5 25% / GPT-5.5 25% / GPT-5.6 Sol 25% / +1 more

15.6%

S&P 500 (SPY) 4 models: Gemini 3.1 Pro 50% / Grok 4.3 40% / Claude Fable 5 10% / Claude Opus 4.8 10%

13.8%

US Dividend Equities (SCHD) 3 models: Claude Fable 5 20% / Claude Opus 4.8 15% / Claude Opus 5 15%

6.3%

Industrials Sector (XLI) 2 models: Claude Opus 4.8 25% / Gemini 3.1 Pro 25%

6.3%

Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 1 model: Grok 4.5 25%

3.1%

Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) 1 model: GPT-5.5 20%

2.5%

Interim tracking

Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns

Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.

Live chart pending

At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.

Saved model-facing context

Prompt And Input Packet

The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.

Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 32,079 characters

# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.

Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.

Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.

Complete the decision in this order:

1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
      "decision": "selected or rejected",
      "forecast_low_pct": <number>,
      "forecast_base_pct": <number>,
      "forecast_high_pct": <number>,
      "evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
      "continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
      "reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
      "time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
      "invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
      "time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
      "invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
  "confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
  "key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}

Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.

## Round Metadata

- Round ID: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- Decision date: 2026-07-27
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-07-28T06:50:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-07-28T12:30:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-07-27
- Exit date: 2026-08-03
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, July 27, 2026 as the one-week entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, August 3, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.

## Briefing

# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing

Research cutoff: 2026-07-28T06:50:00Z

Decision and entry observation date: Monday, July 27, 2026

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.

## Market Close and Breadth

- On July 27, the S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18, up less than 0.1%; the Dow closed at 52,210.08, up 0.5%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,932.08, down 0.2%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,948.03, up 0.6%.
- Seven of eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Consumer staples gained 1.58%, information technology gained 1.25%, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.2%.
- Advancing S&P 500 issues outnumbered declining issues by 1.9 to 1. The index recorded 30 new highs and three new lows. U.S. exchange volume was 15.8 billion shares versus a 20-session average of 18.2 billion.
- Cboe reported a July 27 VIX close of 18.67 and a displayed 52-week range of 13.38 to 35.30.

## Rates, Inflation, and Policy

- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 27 at 4.65%, down from 4.69% late July 24.
- The Federal Reserve’s target range was 3.50% to 3.75%. The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concludes with a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on July 29. July 27 market pricing assigned 62% probability to no change and 38% to a 25-basis-point increase; these were market-implied probabilities, not Federal Reserve forecasts.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. June energy prices fell 5.7% on the month and rose 15.7% over twelve months.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.

## Economy and Cross-Assets

- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, labor-force participation was 61.5%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over twelve months.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate’s ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate, with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual sales changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- October Brent crude settled at $85.87 per barrel, down 6.3%, and September U.S. crude settled at $82.61, down 7.5%, after a pause in U.S.-Iran attacks and renewed negotiations. The pause and negotiations remained unresolved.
- August gold futures were $4,079.80 per troy ounce, the U.S. Dollar Index was 101.38, EUR/USD was 1.14, and USD/JPY was 163.76.
- The ECB kept its policy rates unchanged on July 23 and said energy-price uncertainty remained high. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.

## Scheduled Events Through the August 3 Close

- July 28: July U.S. consumer confidence at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
- July 29: FOMC statement and press conference; Microsoft and Meta results after the U.S. close.
- July 30: advance second-quarter U.S. GDP, June Personal Income and Outlays, and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; Apple and Amazon results after the U.S. close; Bank of Japan meeting in progress.
- July 31: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; euro-area July flash inflation; Bank of Japan policy communication and Outlook Report; Chevron and Exxon Mobil results before the U.S. open.
- August 3: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; weekly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.

These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.

## Options

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Base Instructions prompt.md

# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-week scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.

Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.

Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.

Complete the decision in this order:

1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
      "decision": "selected or rejected",
      "forecast_low_pct": <number>,
      "forecast_base_pct": <number>,
      "forecast_high_pct": <number>,
      "evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
      "continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
      "reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
      "time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
      "invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
      "time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
      "invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
  "confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
  "key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}

Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.

Round Manifest manifest.yaml

round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-07-27-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-07-27'
decision_deadline: '2026-07-28T12:30:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-5e5ef62318ec
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-07-28T06:47:18.796041+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-5
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
  min_holdings: 1
  max_holdings: 5
  allocation_increment_pct: 5
  min_allocation_pct: 5
  max_total_allocation_pct: 100
  allow_cash: true
  allow_benchmark_asset: true
  max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, July 27, 2026 as the one-week entry snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close prices on Monday, August 3, 2026 as the one-week exit snapshot, calculated after regular trading ends and supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-07-27'
exit_date: '2026-08-03'
created_at: '2026-07-28T06:47:18.796041+00:00'
notes: Production Portfolio V2.2 weekly round prepared from a brand-new July 27 close research package using direct public-source browsing. Participant tools, browsing, search, retrieval, and follow-up calls are disabled.

Briefing briefing.md

# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing

Research cutoff: 2026-07-28T06:50:00Z

Decision and entry observation date: Monday, July 27, 2026

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.

## Market Close and Breadth

- On July 27, the S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18, up less than 0.1%; the Dow closed at 52,210.08, up 0.5%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 24,932.08, down 0.2%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,948.03, up 0.6%.
- Seven of eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Consumer staples gained 1.58%, information technology gained 1.25%, and the Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.2%.
- Advancing S&P 500 issues outnumbered declining issues by 1.9 to 1. The index recorded 30 new highs and three new lows. U.S. exchange volume was 15.8 billion shares versus a 20-session average of 18.2 billion.
- Cboe reported a July 27 VIX close of 18.67 and a displayed 52-week range of 13.38 to 35.30.

## Rates, Inflation, and Policy

- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended July 27 at 4.65%, down from 4.69% late July 24.
- The Federal Reserve’s target range was 3.50% to 3.75%. The July 28-29 FOMC meeting concludes with a statement at 2:00 p.m. Eastern on July 29. July 27 market pricing assigned 62% probability to no change and 38% to a 25-basis-point increase; these were market-implied probabilities, not Federal Reserve forecasts.
- June CPI fell 0.4% from May and rose 3.5% over twelve months. Core CPI was unchanged on the month and rose 2.6% over twelve months. June energy prices fell 5.7% on the month and rose 15.7% over twelve months.
- June final-demand PPI fell 0.3% from May and rose 5.5% over twelve months. Goods prices fell 1.4% while services prices rose 0.2%.
- May PCE inflation was 0.4% month over month and 4.1% over twelve months; core PCE was 0.3% and 3.4%, respectively. June PCE and advance second-quarter GDP are scheduled for July 30; outcomes were unavailable at the cutoff.

## Economy and Cross-Assets

- June payrolls increased by 57,000, unemployment was 4.2%, labor-force participation was 61.5%, and average hourly earnings rose 3.5% over twelve months.
- June retail and food-services sales rose 0.2% from May and 6.7% over twelve months. The monthly estimate’s ±0.4 percentage-point margin did not establish a statistically significant monthly change.
- June durable-goods orders rose 0.3%; orders excluding transportation rose 0.6%; and computers and electronic-product orders rose 3.1%.
- June new-home sales ran at a 628,000 annual rate, with 9.3 months of supply. The reported monthly and annual sales changes had sampling margins wider than the estimates.
- October Brent crude settled at $85.87 per barrel, down 6.3%, and September U.S. crude settled at $82.61, down 7.5%, after a pause in U.S.-Iran attacks and renewed negotiations. The pause and negotiations remained unresolved.
- August gold futures were $4,079.80 per troy ounce, the U.S. Dollar Index was 101.38, EUR/USD was 1.14, and USD/JPY was 163.76.
- The ECB kept its policy rates unchanged on July 23 and said energy-price uncertainty remained high. June euro-area inflation was 2.8%. China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year and 0.9% quarter over quarter.

## Scheduled Events Through the August 3 Close

- July 28: July U.S. consumer confidence at 10:00 a.m. Eastern.
- July 29: FOMC statement and press conference; Microsoft and Meta results after the U.S. close.
- July 30: advance second-quarter U.S. GDP, June Personal Income and Outlays, and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; Apple and Amazon results after the U.S. close; Bank of Japan meeting in progress.
- July 31: second-quarter U.S. Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. Eastern; euro-area July flash inflation; Bank of Japan policy communication and Outlook Report; Chevron and Exxon Mobil results before the U.S. open.
- August 3: Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey; weekly scoring window ends at the regular U.S. close.

These are fixed cutoff-safe observations and scheduled events. They are not forecasts, rankings, recommendations, or mappings to CapitalBench options. Scheduled outcomes are unknown, survey estimates remain subject to revision and sampling error, and price history in the complete mechanical appendices is descriptive context rather than a forecast.

Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Source Options YAML options.yaml

options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    is_benchmark: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

  - id: BROAD_AI_TECH
    name: Broad AI Technology
    symbol: AIQ
    tiingo_symbol: AIQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."

  - id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
    name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
    symbol: ARKQ
    tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."

  - id: CYBERSECURITY
    name: Cybersecurity
    symbol: CIBR
    tiingo_symbol: CIBR
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."

  - id: SOLAR
    name: Solar Energy
    symbol: TAN
    tiingo_symbol: TAN
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: clean_energy
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."

  - id: METALS_MINING
    name: Metals and Mining
    symbol: XME
    tiingo_symbol: XME
    asset_class: equity
    category: commodity_equity
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."

  - id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
    name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
    symbol: RSP
    tiingo_symbol: RSP
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."

  - id: BIOTECH
    name: Biotechnology
    symbol: XBI
    tiingo_symbol: XBI
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."

  - id: REGIONAL_BANKS
    name: Regional Banks
    symbol: KRE
    tiingo_symbol: KRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."

  - id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
    name: Aerospace and Defense
    symbol: ITA
    tiingo_symbol: ITA
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: CANADA
    name: Canada Equities
    symbol: EWC
    tiingo_symbol: EWC
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."

  - id: UNITED_KINGDOM
    name: United Kingdom Equities
    symbol: EWU
    tiingo_symbol: EWU
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."

  - id: AUSTRALIA
    name: Australia Equities
    symbol: EWA
    tiingo_symbol: EWA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."

  - id: SOUTH_KOREA
    name: South Korea Equities
    symbol: EWY
    tiingo_symbol: EWY
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."

  - id: TAIWAN
    name: Taiwan Equities
    symbol: EWT
    tiingo_symbol: EWT
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: BRAZIL
    name: Brazil Equities
    symbol: EWZ
    tiingo_symbol: EWZ
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."

  - id: MEXICO
    name: Mexico Equities
    symbol: EWW
    tiingo_symbol: EWW
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."

  - id: SOUTH_AFRICA
    name: South Africa Equities
    symbol: EZA
    tiingo_symbol: EZA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."

  - id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
    name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
    symbol: MBB
    tiingo_symbol: MBB
    asset_class: bond
    category: securitized_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."

  - id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
    name: Municipal Bonds
    symbol: MUB
    tiingo_symbol: MUB
    asset_class: bond
    category: municipal_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
    name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
    symbol: EMB
    tiingo_symbol: EMB
    asset_class: bond
    category: emerging_market_debt
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."

  - id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
    name: International Aggregate Bonds
    symbol: BNDX
    tiingo_symbol: BNDX
    asset_class: bond
    category: international_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."

  - id: SILVER
    name: Silver
    symbol: SLV
    tiingo_symbol: SLV
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."

  - id: COPPER
    name: Copper
    symbol: CPER
    tiingo_symbol: CPER
    asset_class: commodity
    category: industrial_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."

  - id: AGRICULTURE
    name: Agriculture Commodities
    symbol: DBA
    tiingo_symbol: DBA
    asset_class: commodity
    category: agriculture
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."

  - id: OIL
    name: Crude Oil
    symbol: USO
    tiingo_symbol: USO
    asset_class: commodity
    category: energy_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."

  - id: US_DOLLAR
    name: US Dollar
    symbol: UUP
    tiingo_symbol: UUP
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."

  - id: EURO
    name: Euro
    symbol: FXE
    tiingo_symbol: FXE
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."

  - id: YEN
    name: Japanese Yen
    symbol: FXY
    tiingo_symbol: FXY
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BITCOIN_ETF
    name: Bitcoin ETF
    symbol: IBIT
    tiingo_symbol: IBIT
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."

  - id: ETHEREUM_ETF
    name: Ethereum ETF
    symbol: ETHA
    tiingo_symbol: ETHA
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."

Round Hashes hashes.json

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    "briefing.md": "3ccb9001fc40cc6bee35281501f3953b0babe923c9c778f37e18188e184cedec",
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    "market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "6cd55571fe96ead9f30f257c7796fe416c2280f461995ba6e838333eadc4adb9",
    "market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "8e354320f4abea8cab0384d09f7afd637626aeca1f59f1d57d8b34d12d485352",
    "market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "22594ae6c7702d246f1c23e55f29747b9648e016769b8857428040367e701237",
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    "market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "536ddfe86f90681dc8741c3326343c1e6dc7dbdc07c284e60cb7114976a8a3fd",
    "market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "5f99e682d91f41e21ecd373bf165fc98449496a424961258324985dcc8f6f792",
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}

Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 8 model calls

Claude Fable 5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Claude Opus 4.8

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Claude Opus 5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Gemini 3.1 Pro

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

GPT-5.5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

GPT-5.6 Sol

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Grok 4.3

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Grok 4.5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-07-27-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Parsed provider responses

Model Outputs

These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.

Anthropic

Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

5 holdings Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% US Dividend Equities (SCHD) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

Confidence: 0.60
Run Type: official

Rationale

With a 38% priced probability of a Fed hike, mega-cap earnings risk, and clear breadth rotation toward value/defensives (RSP +1.70% vs SPY over 5 days), the portfolio tilts to healthcare, dividends, equal-weight, and financials that are at or near 52-week highs with independent trend support, keeping tech-growth exposure minimal.

Overweight defensive value and breadth (healthcare, dividend, equal-weight, financials) into a hawkish-risk FOMC and concentrated mega-cap earnings week; small SPY anchor.

Portfolio

Healthcare Sector (XLV): 25% - Defensive sector with strong recent relative strength (+3.01% 5-day active), low SPY beta, near 52-week high; insulated from FOMC hike risk.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 25% - Breadth improving: RSP beat SPY +1.70% over 5 days with advancers 1.9:1; equal weight at 52-week high with low drawdown.
US Dividend Equities (SCHD): 20% - Strong prior and recent active returns (+2.48% 5d, +1.41% prior), near-zero SPY beta, at 52-week high; resilient to a rate hike.
Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Positive prior trend (+3.78% prior active) and continued strength (+1.90% 5d), at 52-week high; benefits from elevated rates whether Fed hikes or holds.
S&P 500 (SPY): 10% - Benchmark anchor to limit tracking error through heavy earnings/FOMC week.

Key Risks

Dovish FOMC plus strong mega-cap earnings could reignite growth leadership and hurt the value/defensive tilt
A 25bp hike could pressure all equities including defensives
Financials exposed to weak Senior Loan Officer Survey or credit deterioration
Healthcare's recent strength may mean-revert

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.2,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Dovish hold plus earnings beats lift the index",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "SPY -0.40% over 5 days, -2.45% from 52-week high",
        "VIX 18.67; FOMC pricing 62% hold / 38% hike",
        "Mega-cap earnings MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN this week"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Hawkish hike with hawkish guidance",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Surprise 25bp hike or mega-cap earnings misses",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; earnings July 29-30; GDP/PCE July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues into FOMC uncertainty",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "+3.01% 5-day active return, +1.27% prior active",
        "Beta to SPY -0.161, only -0.63% from 52-week high"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "Sharp post-FOMC growth rally with healthcare underperforming early week",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "Risk-on rally after dovish Fed pulls flows to growth",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 defensive positioning"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Breadth broadening continues as mega-caps stall into earnings",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "RSP-SPY +1.70% 5d and +0.97% 21d",
        "At 52-week high with only -1.46% max drawdown",
        "Advancers led decliners 1.9:1 on July 27"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "QQQ outperforming RSP sharply after earnings",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings beats restore cap-weighted leadership",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings July 29-30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Value/dividend rotation with prior-trend support persists through FOMC",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "+2.48% 5d active and +1.41% prior active return",
        "Beta 0.125, at 52-week high, -1.18% max drawdown"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "10-year yield surging well above 4.75% on hawkish outcome",
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "reversal_case": "Yield spike from hike could pressure dividend proxies",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; ECI July 31"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Higher-for-longer rates support net interest margins; trend intact",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "+1.90% 5d active with +3.78% prior active trend",
        "At 52-week high; low beta 0.197 to SPY"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Bank credit-quality shock or sharp yield-curve inversion move",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Weak Senior Loan Officer Survey or credit worries",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; SLOOS Aug 3"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings beats spark a rebound",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "-1.60% 5d active, -3.90% prior active, -8.48% from high",
        "Beta 1.72, 23% volatility; semis fell 2.2% July 27"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0,
      "forecast_high_pct": 4,
      "forecast_low_pct": -4,
      "invalidation_condition": "Broad tech earnings beats with strong guidance",
      "option_id": "NASDAQ100",
      "reversal_case": "Earnings misses plus a rate hike extend the drawdown",
      "time_window_catalyst": "MSFT/META July 29, AAPL/AMZN July 30 earnings"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "FOMC uncertainty and safe-haven demand",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "+2.30% 5d active but -24.41% from 52-week high",
        "Dollar Index firm at 101.38; hike risk pressures gold"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "Post-hike dollar rally",
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "reversal_case": "Rate hike and dollar strength hit gold",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Geopolitical re-escalation lifts crude and energy equities",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "Brent fell 6.3% on U.S.-Iran pause and negotiations",
        "+6.06% prior active but crude reversing sharply"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": -0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -3,
      "invalidation_condition": "Talks collapse and crude rallies back above $90 Brent",
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "reversal_case": "Continued de-escalation extends crude selloff",
      "time_window_catalyst": "CVX/XOM earnings July 31; Iran talks"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.52,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Dovish FOMC plus strong mega-cap earnings could reignite growth leadership and hurt the value/defensive tilt",
    "A 25bp hike could pressure all equities including defensives",
    "Financials exposed to weak Senior Loan Officer Survey or credit deterioration",
    "Healthcare's recent strength may mean-revert"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.9,
      "invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-on rotation back into mega-cap growth after a dovish FOMC",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent relative strength (+3.01% 5-day active), low SPY beta, near 52-week high; insulated from FOMC hike risk.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision; defensive flows if hawkish surprise"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap earnings beats drive cap-weighted leadership back",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "rationale": "Breadth improving: RSP beat SPY +1.70% over 5 days with advancers 1.9:1; equal weight at 52-week high with low drawdown.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings (MSFT, META, AAPL, AMZN) concentration risk favors equal weight; FOMC July 29"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on growth rally post-FOMC pulling flows from dividend value",
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "rationale": "Strong prior and recent active returns (+2.48% 5d, +1.41% prior), near-zero SPY beta, at 52-week high; resilient to a rate hike.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; defensive value flows through week"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "Credit-quality shock or sharp curve rally hurting bank margins",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Positive prior trend (+3.78% prior active) and continued strength (+1.90% 5d), at 52-week high; benefits from elevated rates whether Fed hikes or holds.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and Senior Loan Officer Survey Aug 3"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "n/a benchmark holding",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "rationale": "Benchmark anchor to limit tracking error through heavy earnings/FOMC week.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, mega-cap earnings, Q2 GDP July 30"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.72,
  "portfolio_rationale": "With a 38% priced probability of a Fed hike, mega-cap earnings risk, and clear breadth rotation toward value/defensives (RSP +1.70% vs SPY over 5 days), the portfolio tilts to healthcare, dividends, equal-weight, and financials that are at or near 52-week highs with independent trend support, keeping tech-growth exposure minimal.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Overweight defensive value and breadth (healthcare, dividend, equal-weight, financials) into a hawkish-risk FOMC and concentrated mega-cap earnings week; small SPY anchor.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 27351,
    "latency_seconds": 44.867778029991314,
    "output_tokens": 3820,
    "total_tokens": 31171
  }
}

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

5 holdings Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30% Industrials Sector (XLI) 25% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% US Dividend Equities (SCHD) 15% S&P 500 (SPY) 10%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Tilt toward defensive and cyclical breadth leaders (healthcare, industrials, financials, dividend) that show strong recent relative strength and low volatility, given a heavy earnings/FOMC week where mega-cap tech (down QQQ/SMH) carries elevated risk.

Breadth is rotating away from mega-cap growth (RSP beating SPY) into defensives and cyclicals; portfolio overweights those leaders while keeping SPY core.

Portfolio

Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Defensive sector with strong recent active return (+3.01% 5s), low correlation to SPY, and deep pullback rank; benefits from breadth rotation into staples/defensives.
Industrials Sector (XLI): 25% - Strongest 5s active return (+3.26%) with moderate volatility and improving breadth; industrials leading the rotation.
Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - High quality score, positive prior active trend (+3.78%), low volatility, at 52w highs; benefits from steady yields.
US Dividend Equities (SCHD): 15% - Very low beta (0.125), strong active return (+2.48%), shallow drawdown; ballast during earnings-driven volatility.
S&P 500 (SPY): 10% - Core benchmark exposure to limit tracking risk.

Key Risks

Hawkish FOMC surprise (38% priced hike) hits all equities
Strong Microsoft/Meta/Apple/Amazon earnings drive tech-led rally that leaves defensive tilt behind
Yield spike pressures rate-sensitive and financial names

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Broad market grinds higher on solid earnings and no Fed hike",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "SPY closed 7413.18, up <0.1%",
        "5s return -0.40%, RSP beating SPY by 1.70%",
        "VIX 18.67"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "SPY falls more than 2% intraweek",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed or weak mega-cap earnings trigger selloff",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, mega-cap earnings"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive rotation continues amid tech volatility",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Active return 5s +3.01%",
        "Negative beta to SPY -0.161",
        "3s return +2.49%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by >1%",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "Risk-on tech rally pulls flows from defensives",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Earnings-week volatility"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Cyclical breadth leadership persists",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Highest 5s active return +3.26%",
        "3s +2.43%",
        "moderate volatility 14.30%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "Industrials fall below SPY performance",
      "option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Growth reasserts, cyclicals fade",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Breadth rotation"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Stable yields support banks",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Prior active return +3.78%",
        "at 52w high, drawdown -2.08%",
        "low beta 0.197"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Financials break recent range low",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Yield spike or credit worries",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, loan officer survey Aug 3"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive flows in choppy week",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Active return +2.48%",
        "beta 0.125",
        "drawdown -1.18%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Broad growth rally dominates",
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "reversal_case": "Tech-led risk-on rally",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Earnings volatility"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Mega-cap earnings beat drives tech",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "5s active -1.60%",
        "high beta 1.72",
        "drawdown -7.37%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -4,
      "invalidation_condition": "QQQ breaks lower on weak earnings",
      "option_id": "NASDAQ100",
      "reversal_case": "Earnings disappoint or rates rise",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Meta/Apple/Amazon earnings"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand amid uncertainty",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "5s active +2.30%",
        "IAU 21s +1.41%",
        "gold $4079"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks below recent support",
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "reversal_case": "Strong dollar and hawkish Fed pressure gold",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and dollar moves"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Yields fall on dovish Fed",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "10y yield 4.65% down from 4.69%",
        "low vol 4.15%",
        "5s active +0.13%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "10y yield rises above 4.8%",
      "option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
      "reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed lifts yields",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.2975,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hawkish FOMC surprise (38% priced hike) hits all equities",
    "Strong Microsoft/Meta/Apple/Amazon earnings drive tech-led rally that leaves defensive tilt behind",
    "Yield spike pressures rate-sensitive and financial names"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by more than 1% mid-window",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent active return (+3.01% 5s), low correlation to SPY, and deep pullback rank; benefits from breadth rotation into staples/defensives.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Big-tech earnings week volatility favors defensives"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "Industrials give back gains as growth stocks reassert",
      "option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
      "rationale": "Strongest 5s active return (+3.26%) with moderate volatility and improving breadth; industrials leading the rotation.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Continued cyclical breadth rotation"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "Financials break below recent range",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "High quality score, positive prior active trend (+3.78%), low volatility, at 52w highs; benefits from steady yields.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and yield stability"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.55,
      "invalidation_condition": "Risk-on rally in mega-cap tech dominates",
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "rationale": "Very low beta (0.125), strong active return (+2.48%), shallow drawdown; ballast during earnings-driven volatility.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows during heavy earnings week"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.3,
      "invalidation_condition": "Broad equity selloff on hawkish Fed",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "rationale": "Core benchmark exposure to limit tracking risk.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and mega-cap earnings"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.5975,
  "portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward defensive and cyclical breadth leaders (healthcare, industrials, financials, dividend) that show strong recent relative strength and low volatility, given a heavy earnings/FOMC week where mega-cap tech (down QQQ/SMH) carries elevated risk.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Breadth is rotating away from mega-cap growth (RSP beating SPY) into defensives and cyclicals; portfolio overweights those leaders while keeping SPY core.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 27065,
    "latency_seconds": 50.75088654877618,
    "output_tokens": 2684,
    "total_tokens": 29749
  }
}

Anthropic

Claude Opus 5

anthropic-claude-opus-5

5 holdings Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 30% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 20% Gold (IAU) 15% US Dividend Equities (SCHD) 15%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

With SPY's mega-cap complex weak (QQQ/SMH sharply negative) and breadth broadening, I tilt toward equal-weight and defensive/value sectors that are at or near 52-week highs, plus a gold hedge into a two-sided FOMC and heavy macro/earnings calendar.

Broadening-breadth tilt: RSP, XLV, XLF, SCHD plus gold hedge, avoiding concentrated mega-cap tech risk into FOMC and megacap earnings.

Portfolio

Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 30% - Breadth is strong (advancers 1.9:1, RSP beating SPY by 1.7% over 5 sessions) with low vol and zero drawdown from highs.
Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive sector with strong prior active trend, near 52-week high, low beta to SPY ahead of a two-sided FOMC.
Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Positive prior active return, at 52-week high, low drawdown; benefits if FOMC signals firmer rates.
Gold (IAU): 15% - Hedge against a hawkish surprise/geopolitical re-escalation; positive recent active return with moderate vol.
US Dividend Equities (SCHD): 15% - Low correlation to SPY (0.14), at 52-week high, strongest recent active return among diversified equity sleeves.

Key Risks

A dovish FOMC or blowout mega-cap earnings could drive a cap-weighted melt-up that RSP and defensives lag
A 25bp hike surprise (38% priced) hits rate-sensitive defensives and gold simultaneously
Oil's 7% slide and unresolved US-Iran talks could spark cross-asset volatility
Defensive sectors near 52-week highs are crowded and prone to mean reversion

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Broad uptrend intact, only 2.45% from 52-week high, breadth positive",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "S&P 500 closed 7,413.18, up less than 0.1%",
        "VIX 18.67; SPY -0.40% over 5 sessions",
        "FOMC July 29 plus Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon results"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below its 21-session low",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "38% odds of a rate hike and megacap earnings create two-sided event risk",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; GDP/PCE July 30; megacap earnings"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Breadth broadening away from mega-cap tech supports equal weight",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "rsp_minus_spy_5s 1.70%",
        "Advancers outnumbered decliners 1.9 to 1; 30 new highs",
        "RSP at 0% distance from 52-week high, vol 9.95%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2,
      "invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 1% during the window",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "reversal_case": "A mega-cap earnings beat re-concentrates leadership into cap-weighted names",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and megacap earnings week"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Sustained relative strength with low correlation offers alpha with limited market beta",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "XLV active_return_5s 3.01%, prior 16s active 1.27%",
        "distance from 52w high -0.63%",
        "beta to SPY -0.16"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "XLV declines more than 3% in the window",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "Sharp recent run-up could mean-revert; sector rotation back to tech",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Defensive positioning into FOMC July 29"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Steady leadership, low drawdown, supported by firm rate expectations",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "XLF prior 16s active return 3.78%, at 52-week high",
        "max drawdown 21s only -2.08%",
        "Senior Loan Officer Survey August 3"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "XLF falls below its 21-session low",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Weak loan survey or credit deterioration; HYG already -0.51% over 5 sessions",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and SLOOS August 3"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand and easing yields ahead of FOMC and PCE",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "iau_return_5s 1.90%; active 5s 2.30%",
        "Gold futures $4,079.80",
        "10-year yield eased to 4.65%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 4,
      "forecast_low_pct": -3,
      "invalidation_condition": "Dollar index above 103 with gold under $3,950",
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed and stronger dollar (UUP +0.74% 5s) pressure gold",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; June PCE July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Persistent relative strength with very low SPY correlation adds diversification",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "SCHD active_return_5s 2.48%, prior 16s 1.41%",
        "corr to SPY only 0.136; drawdown -1.18%",
        "At 52-week high"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "SCHD falls more than 2%",
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "reversal_case": "Rate hike surprise pressures yield-oriented equities",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC and Employment Cost Index July 31"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Deep pullback could snap back on strong megacap capex guidance",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "SMH prior 16s active -13.32%, drawdown -16.37%",
        "Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 2.2% on July 27",
        "volatility 49.31%, beta 3.16"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0,
      "forecast_high_pct": 9,
      "forecast_low_pct": -9,
      "invalidation_condition": "SMH makes a new 52-week low",
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "reversal_case": "Downtrend and extreme volatility make it a coin flip with huge variance",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft/Meta July 29 and Apple/Amazon July 30 capex commentary"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Soft June CPI/PPI could extend the modest bond bid",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "IEF prior 16s active -2.05%",
        "10-year yield 4.65%, down from 4.69%",
        "38% market-implied odds of a 25bp hike"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "10-year yield above 4.85%",
      "option_id": "INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY",
      "reversal_case": "A hike or hawkish statement pushes yields higher",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; PCE and GDP July 30"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.26,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A dovish FOMC or blowout mega-cap earnings could drive a cap-weighted melt-up that RSP and defensives lag",
    "A 25bp hike surprise (38% priced) hits rate-sensitive defensives and gold simultaneously",
    "Oil's 7% slide and unresolved US-Iran talks could spark cross-asset volatility",
    "Defensive sectors near 52-week highs are crowded and prone to mean reversion"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.55,
      "invalidation_condition": "Breadth narrows and RSP underperforms SPY by more than 1% intraweek",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "rationale": "Breadth is strong (advancers 1.9:1, RSP beating SPY by 1.7% over 5 sessions) with low vol and zero drawdown from highs.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP/PCE July 30, mega-cap earnings"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 3% or gives up its 52-week-high proximity",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong prior active trend, near 52-week high, low beta to SPY ahead of a two-sided FOMC.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29; defensive rotation flows"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "XLF breaks below its 21-session low or credit spreads widen sharply",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Positive prior active return, at 52-week high, low drawdown; benefits if FOMC signals firmer rates.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and Senior Loan Officer Survey August 3"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "Dollar index rallies above 103 and gold falls under $3,950",
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "rationale": "Hedge against a hawkish surprise/geopolitical re-escalation; positive recent active return with moderate vol.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and June PCE July 30"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "SCHD drops more than 2% or its relative strength versus SPY reverses",
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "rationale": "Low correlation to SPY (0.14), at 52-week high, strongest recent active return among diversified equity sleeves.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Rate path clarity from FOMC and ECI July 31"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.61,
  "portfolio_rationale": "With SPY's mega-cap complex weak (QQQ/SMH sharply negative) and breadth broadening, I tilt toward equal-weight and defensive/value sectors that are at or near 52-week highs, plus a gold hedge into a two-sided FOMC and heavy macro/earnings calendar.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Broadening-breadth tilt: RSP, XLV, XLF, SCHD plus gold hedge, avoiding concentrated mega-cap tech risk into FOMC and megacap earnings.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 27351,
    "latency_seconds": 39.19760863203555,
    "output_tokens": 3275,
    "total_tokens": 30626
  }
}

Google

Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

3 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)

S&P 500 (SPY) 50% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 25% Industrials Sector (XLI) 25%

Confidence: 0.60
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio balances core market exposure with tilts towards healthcare and industrials, which have shown recent strength. This positioning aims to capture upside while managing risk ahead of key macro events.

Balanced approach with defensive and cyclical tilts.

Portfolio

S&P 500 (SPY): 50% - Core holding for broad market exposure.
Healthcare Sector (XLV): 25% - Defensive sector with strong recent relative performance.
Industrials Sector (XLI): 25% - Strong recent performance and potential beneficiary of economic resilience.

Key Risks

Hawkish Fed surprise
Tech earnings disappointment
Weak GDP data

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Market holds steady ahead of Fed and earnings.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18, up less than 0.1%",
        "FOMC meeting concludes July 29"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Hawkish Fed surprise or major tech earnings miss.",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Negative reaction to Fed or earnings.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and tech earnings."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Continued defensive rotation and strong earnings.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "active_return_5s is 3.01%",
        "prior_16s_active_return is 1.27%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "Broad market rally favoring high-beta sectors.",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "Market shifts back to high-growth sectors.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and defensive rotation."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Positive economic data supports cyclical sectors.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "active_return_5s is 3.26%",
        "return_3s is 2.43%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Weak GDP print or negative earnings guidance.",
      "option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Weak economic data raises recession fears.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "GDP data and earnings."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Tech earnings surprise to the upside.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "active_return_5s is -0.40%",
        "prior_16s_active_return is -5.86%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 4,
      "forecast_low_pct": -3,
      "invalidation_condition": "Strong earnings reports across the board.",
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "reversal_case": "Tech earnings disappoint or rates rise.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon earnings."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Fed signals dovish pivot.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "10-year yield ended July 27 at 4.65%",
        "prior_16s_active_return is -4.67%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Dovish Fed statement.",
      "option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
      "reversal_case": "Fed remains hawkish or inflation data surprises.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand increases.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "August gold futures were $4,079.80",
        "active_return_5s is 2.30%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Strong economic data and hawkish Fed.",
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "reversal_case": "Risk-on sentiment returns.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Macro data and Fed meeting."
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.175,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hawkish Fed surprise",
    "Tech earnings disappointment",
    "Weak GDP data"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 50,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "Hawkish Fed surprise or major tech earnings miss.",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "rationale": "Core holding for broad market exposure.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC meeting and tech earnings."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "Broad market rally favoring high-beta sectors.",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent relative performance.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Earnings reports and defensive rotation."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.9,
      "invalidation_condition": "Weak GDP print or negative earnings guidance.",
      "option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
      "rationale": "Strong recent performance and potential beneficiary of economic resilience.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "GDP data and earnings."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.675,
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances core market exposure with tilts towards healthcare and industrials, which have shown recent strength. This positioning aims to capture upside while managing risk ahead of key macro events.",
  "provider": "google",
  "rationale_summary": "Balanced approach with defensive and cyclical tilts.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 16656,
    "latency_seconds": 13.658160977996886,
    "output_tokens": 1602,
    "total_tokens": 18258
  }
}

OpenAI

GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

4 holdings Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30% Financials Sector (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) 20%

Confidence: 0.56
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio tilts toward recent broadening and defensive/value leadership instead of cap-weight technology concentration ahead of FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and mega-cap earnings. All active holdings have base forecasts above SPY and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%.

SPY was flat with mixed mega-cap technology weakness, while breadth was positive and several defensive/value sectors led. The selected holdings seek one-week alpha from breadth continuation, defensive rotation, and financial leadership around scheduled macro and policy catalysts.

Portfolio

Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Healthcare showed the strongest recent defensive-sector relative performance with positive 3-day and 5-day active returns and a shallow distance from its 52-week high.
Financials Sector (XLF): 25% - Financials combine strong prior active return, positive recent active return, and a 52-week-high position, with the Senior Loan Officer survey inside the window.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 25% - Equal-weight S&P 500 benefits from stronger breadth than cap-weight SPY and lower volatility, while avoiding concentrated mega-cap earnings risk.
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP): 20% - Consumer staples had the largest S&P 500 sector gain on July 27 and offers defensive exposure if FOMC or macro data pressure higher-beta equities.

Key Risks

Mega-cap technology earnings could strongly lift SPY and leave the defensive/breadth tilt behind.
A hawkish FOMC surprise or hot inflation/wage data could pressure equities and financials simultaneously.
Recent defensive and equal-weight outperformance could mean-revert within the short one-week window.
Unexpected geopolitical or oil-price reversal could shift leadership toward energy and away from selected sectors.

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.1,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Positive breadth, 30 new S&P 500 highs, and potential benign macro or earnings outcomes could keep the benchmark advancing.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "S&P 500 closed up less than 0.1% on July 27 while Nasdaq Composite fell 0.2%.",
        "SPY return_3s was -1.11%, return_5s was -0.40%, and distance from 52-week high was -2.45%.",
        "FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and major mega-cap earnings are scheduled before the August 3 close."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
      "invalidation_condition": "SPY reclaims strong breadth leadership with technology and mega-cap growth outperforming after FOMC and earnings.",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings disappointment, hawkish FOMC communication, or unfavorable inflation/wage data could extend the recent SPY pullback.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC on July 29, GDP/PCE on July 30, ECI on July 31, and Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon results."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive leadership can continue if FOMC or macro releases raise growth or rate concerns while healthcare remains near its 52-week high.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Healthcare return_3s was 2.49% and active_return_5s was 3.01%.",
        "Healthcare prior_16s_active_return was 1.27% and distance from 52-week high was -0.63%.",
        "Healthcare quality evidence score was 0.478, with high prior active rank of 0.791 but weak recent pullback rank of 0.090."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.55,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by more than 1% after the FOMC/GDP-PCE releases or breaks materially away from its near-high position.",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "The strong recent move and weak pullback rank create mean-reversion risk if risk appetite broadens into higher-beta sectors.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and broad earnings-week risk may favor lower-beta defensive leadership before the August 3 close."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "At-high price leadership and strong prior relative trend can continue if FOMC and macro data support stable credit and rate expectations.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Financials return_3s was 1.48%, active_return_5s was 1.90%, and prior_16s_active_return was 3.78%.",
        "Financials were at a 0.00% distance from 52-week high.",
        "The August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey is scheduled inside the scoring window."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.45,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.7,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
      "invalidation_condition": "10-year yields fall sharply with risk-off breadth or financials lose their 52-week-high leadership versus SPY.",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "A dovish growth scare, weaker credit tone, or negative loan-officer signal could reverse financials' recent leadership.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, GDP/PCE/ECI data, and the August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey can affect rate-curve and credit-quality expectations."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Broad participation and equal-weight strength can persist if investors rotate away from mega-cap concentration during earnings week.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "RSP return_5s was 1.30% versus SPY return_5s of -0.40%.",
        "RSP active_return_5s was 1.70%, active_return_21s was 0.97%, and distance from 52-week high was 0.00%.",
        "Advancing S&P 500 issues outnumbered decliners by 1.9 to 1 on July 27."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.9,
      "invalidation_condition": "Market breadth turns negative and RSP's 5-day relative strength versus SPY reverses by more than half.",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Strong mega-cap technology earnings could reassert cap-weight SPY leadership and reverse RSP's recent relative gain.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon plus macro data could sustain broader participation if breadth remains positive."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive sector strength can continue if macro or policy events pressure cyclical and growth equities.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Consumer staples gained 1.58% on July 27, the strongest sector gain cited in the briefing.",
        "Consumer staples return_3s was 1.16% and active_return_5s was 0.99%.",
        "Consumer staples prior_16s_active_return was 0.04%, with distance from 52-week high at -3.97%."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "Staples fail to hold recent positive relative performance and underperform SPY after consumer confidence and FOMC events.",
      "option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
      "reversal_case": "Risk-on reactions to FOMC, GDP, PCE, or mega-cap earnings could rotate flows away from staples into higher-beta areas.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Consumer confidence, FOMC, GDP/PCE, and ECI releases may support defensive rotation if growth or rate signals disappoint."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Strong prior relative trend and deep recent pullback could rebound if growth and software-adjacent earnings sentiment improves.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "Cybersecurity had a quality evidence score of 0.779, including prior active rank 0.955 and recent pullback rank 0.985.",
        "Cybersecurity prior_16s_active_return was 8.66%, but active_return_5s was -2.53%.",
        "Cybersecurity volatility_21s was 28.59% and distance from 52-week high was -5.94%."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.05,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Cybersecurity fails to recover relative to SPY after mega-cap earnings or its drawdown deepens beyond recent levels.",
      "option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
      "reversal_case": "High volatility and recent underperformance could continue if technology/growth remains weak around mega-cap earnings and FOMC.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Meta results after July 29 and Apple/Amazon results after July 30 can influence growth-technology sentiment."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Prior strength could resume if U.S.-Iran negotiations fail or geopolitical supply risk returns before the exit close.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "October Brent crude settled down 6.3% and September U.S. crude settled down 7.5% after a pause in U.S.-Iran attacks and renewed negotiations.",
        "Oil prior_16s_active_return was 13.76%, but return_3s was -5.26% and active_return_5s was -0.19%.",
        "Oil volatility_21s was 58.63% and max_drawdown_21s was -10.56%."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": -0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -4,
      "invalidation_condition": "Crude prices stabilize and oil exposure turns positive versus SPY after energy earnings or geopolitical headlines.",
      "option_id": "OIL",
      "reversal_case": "The attack pause and renewed negotiations could keep pressuring crude, with very high volatility amplifying downside.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Unresolved U.S.-Iran negotiations and Chevron/Exxon results before the July 31 open."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Cash-like yield and low volatility should provide a small positive return if risk assets sell off or policy remains steady.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "Short Treasury return_3s was 0.04% and active_return_5s was 0.47%.",
        "Short Treasury volatility_21s was 0.24%, max_drawdown_21s was -0.01%, and distance from 52-week high was 0.00%.",
        "The Federal Reserve target range was 3.50% to 3.75% with the July 28-29 FOMC meeting pending."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.04,
      "forecast_high_pct": 0.07,
      "forecast_low_pct": 0.02,
      "invalidation_condition": "Equity breadth and SPY rally strongly after FOMC, making capital-preservation exposure lag materially.",
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "reversal_case": "Its expected one-week return is too small to beat SPY in normal or risk-on equity conditions.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and press conference on July 29."
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.56,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.325,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Mega-cap technology earnings could strongly lift SPY and leave the defensive/breadth tilt behind.",
    "A hawkish FOMC surprise or hot inflation/wage data could pressure equities and financials simultaneously.",
    "Recent defensive and equal-weight outperformance could mean-revert within the short one-week window.",
    "Unexpected geopolitical or oil-price reversal could shift leadership toward energy and away from selected sectors."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.55,
      "invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by more than 1% after the FOMC/GDP-PCE releases or breaks materially away from its near-high position.",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Healthcare showed the strongest recent defensive-sector relative performance with positive 3-day and 5-day active returns and a shallow distance from its 52-week high.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and broad earnings-week risk may favor lower-beta defensive leadership before the August 3 close."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.45,
      "invalidation_condition": "10-year yields fall sharply with risk-off breadth or financials lose their 52-week-high leadership versus SPY.",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Financials combine strong prior active return, positive recent active return, and a 52-week-high position, with the Senior Loan Officer survey inside the window.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC communication, GDP/PCE/ECI data, and the August 3 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey can affect rate-curve and credit-quality expectations."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.35,
      "invalidation_condition": "Market breadth turns negative and RSP's 5-day relative strength versus SPY reverses by more than half.",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "rationale": "Equal-weight S&P 500 benefits from stronger breadth than cap-weight SPY and lower volatility, while avoiding concentrated mega-cap earnings risk.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon plus macro data could sustain broader participation if breadth remains positive."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.3,
      "invalidation_condition": "Staples fail to hold recent positive relative performance and underperform SPY after consumer confidence and FOMC events.",
      "option_id": "CONSUMER_STAPLES",
      "rationale": "Consumer staples had the largest S&P 500 sector gain on July 27 and offers defensive exposure if FOMC or macro data pressure higher-beta equities.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Consumer confidence, FOMC, GDP/PCE, and ECI releases may support defensive rotation if growth or rate signals disappoint."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.425,
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio tilts toward recent broadening and defensive/value leadership instead of cap-weight technology concentration ahead of FOMC, GDP/PCE, ECI, and mega-cap earnings. All active holdings have base forecasts above SPY and no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "SPY was flat with mixed mega-cap technology weakness, while breadth was positive and several defensive/value sectors led. The selected holdings seek one-week alpha from breadth continuation, defensive rotation, and financial leadership around scheduled macro and policy catalysts.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 15079,
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}

OpenAI

GPT-5.6 Sol

openai-gpt-5-6-sol

4 holdings Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30% Financials Sector (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 25% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20%

Confidence: 0.59
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio emphasizes breadth, defensive healthcare, and financial leadership while retaining a smaller high-upside cybersecurity rebound position. Four distinct clusters limit dependence on any single macro outcome.

Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY's 0.30% forecast. The weighted base return is 0.73%, implying 0.43 percentage point expected alpha.

Portfolio

Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Strong recent and prior relative performance, defensive exposure, and proximity to its 52-week high support continued leadership through a macro-heavy week.
Financials Sector (XLF): 25% - Positive prior and recent active returns, a new high, and low recent drawdown provide independent support ahead of rate and credit catalysts.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 25% - Broad market participation and persistent equal-weight outperformance favor continued rotation away from concentrated mega-cap exposure.
Cybersecurity (CIBR): 20% - The highest technology finalist quality score combines strong prior leadership with a deep relative pullback, offering rebound potential around major technology earnings.

Key Risks

A hawkish FOMC surprise could pressure equities and reverse the recent decline in Treasury yields.
Weak GDP or labor-cost data could hurt financials and broad cyclical participation.
Mega-cap earnings disappointments could overwhelm breadth and drag cybersecurity lower.
Recent healthcare and equal-weight strength could mean-revert during a technology-led rebound.

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.3,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Broad participation and a modest pullback can support an index rebound if macro data and earnings avoid negative surprises.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "SPY fell 0.40% over five sessions but gained 0.65% over 21 sessions.",
        "Seven of eleven sectors advanced and S&P advancers led decliners 1.9 to 1.",
        "FOMC, GDP, PCE, and four mega-cap earnings reports fall inside the window."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.4,
      "invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below its recent 21-session drawdown low as breadth turns decisively negative.",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "High event density, VIX at 18.67, and concentrated mega-cap earnings exposure could extend the decline.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP and PCE July 30, and Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon earnings."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Improving breadth and lower mega-cap concentration can sustain equal-weight leadership through earnings volatility.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "RSP beat SPY by 1.70 percentage points over five sessions and 0.97 over 21 sessions.",
        "S&P advancers outnumbered decliners 1.9 to 1, with seven sectors advancing.",
        "RSP volatility was 9.95% and its 21-session drawdown was only 1.46%."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.65,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "RSP closes below SPY on two consecutive sessions while S&P breadth turns negative.",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Strong mega-cap earnings could abruptly restore cap-weighted leadership.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Macro releases and mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon may reinforce market broadening."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Independent prior and recent relative strength plus defensive characteristics support persistence during a volatile macro week.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Healthcare gained 2.49% over three sessions and beat SPY by 3.01 points over five.",
        "Its prior 16-session active return was positive 1.27%.",
        "Healthcare stood only 0.63% below its 52-week high."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.75,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point over two consecutive closes.",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "The sharp three-session gain may mean-revert if risk appetite rotates toward growth sectors.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, PCE, and Employment Cost Index releases through July 31."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Persistent relative leadership and firm long yields can support banks and insurers through policy and growth updates.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Financials beat SPY by 1.90 points over five sessions and 3.78 points in the prior window.",
        "The sector was at a 52-week high with a 2.08% recent maximum drawdown.",
        "Its quality evidence score was 0.616."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.1,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "A sharp yield decline or financials falling more than 1.5% relative to SPY invalidates the rate-sensitive leadership case.",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "A dovish shock, growth scare, or adverse credit signal could compress yields and reverse leadership.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision, July 30 GDP and PCE, and August 3 Senior Loan Officer survey."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Strong prior leadership plus a deep recent pullback can produce a rebound if technology earnings stabilize sentiment.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "Cybersecurity had an 8.66% prior 16-session active return and a 0.779 quality score.",
        "Its recent active return was negative 2.53%, creating a pullback after prior leadership.",
        "It remained 5.94% below its 52-week high with 28.59% volatility."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.85,
      "forecast_high_pct": 5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -3.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "Cybersecurity breaks its recent drawdown low or trails SPY by another 2 percentage points.",
      "option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
      "reversal_case": "High volatility and continued growth-stock de-rating could turn the pullback into a trend break.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Meta results July 29 and Apple and Amazon results July 30 may reset technology sentiment."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Positive prior relative momentum and reported economic growth can sustain a short-term rebound.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "China equities had a 5.44% prior active return and gained 1.29% over three sessions.",
        "China reported second-quarter real GDP growth of 4.3% year over year.",
        "The quality evidence score was 0.681, but the fund remained 17.47% below its 52-week high."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -3,
      "invalidation_condition": "China equities lose the recent three-session gain and underperform SPY by more than 1.5 points.",
      "option_id": "CHINA",
      "reversal_case": "Large distance from the high and 19.48% volatility indicate fragile momentum and policy sensitivity.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "No specific China policy catalyst was identified before the August 3 close."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Prior strength, recent pullback, and low equity correlation offer a differentiated rebound setup.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "Agriculture had the universe's highest quality evidence score at 0.793.",
        "Its prior active return was positive 3.03%, but recent active return was negative 1.02%.",
        "Correlation with SPY was only 0.031 and recent drawdown was 2.20%."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.7,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Agriculture falls below its 21-session drawdown low or its active return deteriorates another 1 point.",
      "option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
      "reversal_case": "No supplied weather or crop catalyst supports immediate continuation, so the recent decline may persist.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "No specific agriculture catalyst was identified before the August 3 close."
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Soft inflation or growth data and a non-hawkish FOMC could extend the nascent duration rebound.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.65% from 4.69%.",
        "TLT gained 0.37% over three sessions but lost 3.77% over 21 sessions.",
        "The FOMC and inflation data create substantial duration event risk."
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "The 10-year yield rises above its recent level and TLT breaks its 21-session low.",
      "option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
      "reversal_case": "A rate increase or firm GDP, PCE, or labor-cost data could push yields higher again.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29, GDP and PCE July 30, and Employment Cost Index July 31."
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.59,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.43,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A hawkish FOMC surprise could pressure equities and reverse the recent decline in Treasury yields.",
    "Weak GDP or labor-cost data could hurt financials and broad cyclical participation.",
    "Mega-cap earnings disappointments could overwhelm breadth and drag cybersecurity lower.",
    "Recent healthcare and equal-weight strength could mean-revert during a technology-led rebound."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.75,
      "invalidation_condition": "Healthcare underperforms SPY by more than 1 percentage point over two consecutive closes.",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Strong recent and prior relative performance, defensive exposure, and proximity to its 52-week high support continued leadership through a macro-heavy week.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC, GDP, PCE, and Employment Cost Index releases through July 31."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "A sharp yield decline or financials falling more than 1.5% relative to SPY invalidates the rate-sensitive leadership case.",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Positive prior and recent active returns, a new high, and low recent drawdown provide independent support ahead of rate and credit catalysts.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "July 29 FOMC decision, July 30 GDP and PCE, and August 3 Senior Loan Officer survey."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.65,
      "invalidation_condition": "RSP closes below SPY on two consecutive sessions while S&P breadth turns negative.",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "rationale": "Broad market participation and persistent equal-weight outperformance favor continued rotation away from concentrated mega-cap exposure.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Macro releases and mega-cap earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon may reinforce market broadening."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.85,
      "invalidation_condition": "Cybersecurity breaks its recent drawdown low or trails SPY by another 2 percentage points.",
      "option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
      "rationale": "The highest technology finalist quality score combines strong prior leadership with a deep relative pullback, offering rebound potential around major technology earnings.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Microsoft and Meta results July 29 and Apple and Amazon results July 30 may reset technology sentiment."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.73,
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio emphasizes breadth, defensive healthcare, and financial leadership while retaining a smaller high-upside cybersecurity rebound position. Four distinct clusters limit dependence on any single macro outcome.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Each active holding has a base forecast above SPY's 0.30% forecast. The weighted base return is 0.73%, implying 0.43 percentage point expected alpha.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 15081,
    "latency_seconds": 34.50589114311151,
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    "total_tokens": 17314
  }
}

xAI

Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

4 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)

S&P 500 (SPY) 40% US Large-Cap Value (IWD) 20% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20% Financials Sector (XLF) 20%

Confidence: 0.52
Run Type: official

Rationale

Mix of broad market and three higher-forecast defensive/value sectors to capture modest alpha while limiting cluster exposure.

SP500 base forecast 0.5; selected holdings exceed that threshold with diversified clusters under 50% cap.

Portfolio

S&P 500 (SPY): 40% - Broad diversified US equity exposure with balanced sector participation amid mixed breadth and upcoming data releases.
US Large-Cap Value (IWD): 20% - Value tilt shows relative strength in recent breadth data and lower drawdown versus growth peers.
Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive sector with positive recent active return and lower correlation to broad market moves.
Financials Sector (XLF): 20% - Sector with strong prior active rank and positive recent performance in value-oriented names.

Key Risks

FOMC outcome volatility on July 29
Q2 GDP surprise on July 30
Sector rotation away from value and healthcare

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.5,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Stable breadth and moderate VIX support modest positive drift into data events.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "S&P 500 closed at 7,413.18 up less than 0.1%",
        "Advancing issues outnumbered decliners 1.9 to 1"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": 0,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Disappointing GDP or hawkish FOMC triggers broad equity selloff.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Value leadership persists on rate stability and sector rotation.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "LARGE_VALUE prior active rank 0.642",
        "Recent active return positive versus SPY"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.4,
      "forecast_low_pct": 0.1,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
      "reversal_case": "Growth rebound on dovish Fed surprises.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive flows continue into policy uncertainty.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "HEALTHCARE active return 3.01% over recent 5 sessions",
        "Low correlation to SPY at -0.117"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation post-FOMC lifts cyclicals.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Financials benefit from stable rates and loan demand data.",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "FINANCIALS prior active rank 0.866",
        "Positive recent active return of 1.90%"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.3,
      "forecast_low_pct": 0,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Yield curve steepening fails to materialize after FOMC.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Oil stabilization supports energy names into earnings.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "Brent crude settled at $85.87 down 6.3%",
        "ENERGY prior active rank 0.910"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.1,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "reversal_case": "Further geopolitical de-escalation pressures crude prices.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand rises on policy uncertainty.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "Gold futures at $4,079.80",
        "GOLD quality evidence score 0.350"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "GOLD",
      "reversal_case": "Stronger dollar and higher real yields pressure gold.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Dollar strength persists on relative rate differentials.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "US Dollar Index at 101.38",
        "US_DOLLAR quality evidence score 0.577"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 0.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.3,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
      "reversal_case": "FOMC signals ease and weakens USD.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Short-term rates remain anchored near policy range.",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "SHORT_TREASURY quality evidence score 0.666",
        "Low volatility rank 1.000"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.1,
      "forecast_high_pct": 0.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": 0,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "reversal_case": "Unexpected rate hike lifts short yields.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.52,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.12,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "FOMC outcome volatility on July 29",
    "Q2 GDP surprise on July 30",
    "Sector rotation away from value and healthcare"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 40,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "rationale": "Broad diversified US equity exposure with balanced sector participation amid mixed breadth and upcoming data releases.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
      "rationale": "Value tilt shows relative strength in recent breadth data and lower drawdown versus growth peers.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with positive recent active return and lower correlation to broad market moves.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.6,
      "invalidation_condition": "S&P 500 closes below 7300 on any day before August 3",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Sector with strong prior active rank and positive recent performance in value-oriented names.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement July 29 and Q2 GDP July 30"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 0.62,
  "portfolio_rationale": "Mix of broad market and three higher-forecast defensive/value sectors to capture modest alpha while limiting cluster exposure.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "SP500 base forecast 0.5; selected holdings exceed that threshold with diversified clusters under 50% cap.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 15310,
    "latency_seconds": 19.20277104806155,
    "output_tokens": 1954,
    "reasoning_tokens": 861,
    "total_tokens": 18125
  }
}

xAI

Grok 4.5

xai-grok-4-5

4 holdings Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 30% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 25% Financials Sector (XLF) 25% Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) 20%

Confidence: 0.58
Run Type: official

Rationale

Portfolio tilts to recent relative-strength areas (healthcare, aerospace/defense, financials) and equal-weight breadth that have base forecasts above SPY while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Avoids weak recent tech/growth and high-vol names given VIX at 18.67 and mixed macro calendar.

SPY base is modest given recent negative 5-session return and mega-cap drag; selected names show superior recent active returns, shallower relative drawdowns in several cases, and catalysts (FOMC, GDP, earnings) that can sustain rotation. Allocations stay diversified across four clusters.

Portfolio

Healthcare Sector (XLV): 30% - Recent relative strength and defensive characteristics supported by breadth and upcoming data catalysts favor outperformance versus cap-weighted SPY over the one-week window.
Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 25% - Strongest recent absolute and active returns among finalists with lower correlation to mega-cap tech weakness; continuation supported by industrial breadth.
Financials Sector (XLF): 25% - Positive prior active trend, new highs proximity, and rate-sensitive positioning ahead of FOMC favor modest outperformance.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 20% - Captures better market breadth (RSP outperforming SPY) without single-sector concentration while still clearing the SPY base hurdle.

Key Risks

Hawkish FOMC or hot PCE/GDP triggering rates spike and equity drawdown
Mega-cap earnings disappointment cascading into broader risk-off
Reversal of recent value/defensive/industrial leadership back to growth
Geopolitical re-escalation affecting energy and risk assets

Validated JSON

{
  "benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.35,
  "candidate_ledger": [
    {
      "continuation_case": "Modest positive drift if FOMC is on-hold and breadth holds with GDP in-line",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "SPY closed 7413.18 up <0.1% on July 27 with 5-session return -0.40%",
        "VIX at 18.67; advancing issues 1.9:1 but Nasdaq down 0.2%",
        "FOMC July 29 and mega-cap earnings scheduled inside window"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.35,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.6,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.4,
      "invalidation_condition": "Close-to-close decline >2% or VIX spike above 25",
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Tech-led decline resumes on hawkish policy or weak earnings",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29; GDP/PCE July 30; AAPL/AMZN/MSFT/META earnings"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Defensive bid persists amid policy uncertainty and solid relative trend",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "XLV return_3s +2.49% and active_return_5s +3.01%",
        "Quality evidence score 0.478 with prior active rank 0.791",
        "Consumer staples and defensive sectors advanced on July 27"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
      "forecast_low_pct": -0.8,
      "invalidation_condition": "Active return versus SPY turns negative by more than 1.5% inside window",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation or negative policy surprise hits all equities",
      "time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/PCE and July 31 ECI"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Momentum and industrial breadth continue through macro prints",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "ITA return_3s +5.54% and active_return_5s +6.79%",
        "Industrials sector advanced; distance_52w_high only -2.74%",
        "Lower corr_spy_63s 0.451 versus pure growth"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
      "forecast_high_pct": 3.2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Give-back of more than half the recent 3-session gain",
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "reversal_case": "Profit-taking after sharp 3-session gain or rates shock",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29 and GDP July 30"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Stable-to-higher rates and on-hold Fed support net-interest and capital-markets tone",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "XLF return_3s +1.48%, active_return_5s +1.90%, prior_16s_active +3.78%",
        "Distance to 52w high 0.00%; quality score 0.616",
        "10y yield at 4.65% after modest decline"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.9,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.1,
      "invalidation_condition": "10y yield rise >15 bp accompanied by XLF underperformance",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "reversal_case": "Curve or credit deterioration on hawkish surprise",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and presser July 29"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Breadth remains constructive and mega-cap drag limited",
      "decision": "selected",
      "evidence": [
        "RSP return_5s +1.30% vs SPY -0.40%; rsp_minus_spy_5s +1.70%",
        "Equal-weight at 52w high distance 0.00% with lower vol than SPY",
        "Seven of eleven sectors advanced July 27"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1,
      "invalidation_condition": "RSP active return versus SPY falls below zero for the window",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "reversal_case": "Concentration trade reasserts after earnings",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Mega-cap earnings July 29-30 and GDP"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Continued preference for value over growth into FOMC",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "IWD return_3s +0.90%, active_return_5s +1.53%, at 52w high",
        "Quality evidence score 0.596 with strong shallow-drawdown rank",
        "Value/defensive tilt visible in July 27 sector moves"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.6,
      "forecast_high_pct": 1.9,
      "forecast_low_pct": -1.2,
      "invalidation_condition": "IWD underperforms SPY by >1% on growth leadership return",
      "option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
      "reversal_case": "Growth rebound on dovish Fed or strong tech earnings",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC July 29"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium re-prices higher if negotiations fail",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "XLE active_return_5s +1.13% but return_3s -1.42%; oil down sharply",
        "October Brent settled $85.87 down 6.3% on pause in attacks",
        "Prior_16s_active_return +6.06% but high recent volatility"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.2,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.8,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
      "invalidation_condition": "WTI/Brent further decline >5% inside window",
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "reversal_case": "Further crude weakness on sustained pause/negotiations",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Chevron/Exxon results July 31 and any Iran-related headlines"
    },
    {
      "continuation_case": "High quality score and prior trend reassert after pullback",
      "decision": "rejected",
      "evidence": [
        "CIBR quality evidence score 0.779 (highest among many tech names)",
        "Prior active rank 0.955 but recent active_return_5s -2.53%",
        "Software/cyber had mixed July 27 tape with semis weak"
      ],
      "forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
      "forecast_high_pct": 2.4,
      "forecast_low_pct": -2,
      "invalidation_condition": "Further underperformance versus XLK/SPY >2%",
      "option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
      "reversal_case": "Continued tech de-rating on rates or earnings",
      "time_window_catalyst": "MSFT results July 29 (cyber exposure)"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": 0.58,
  "expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.695,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hawkish FOMC or hot PCE/GDP triggering rates spike and equity drawdown",
    "Mega-cap earnings disappointment cascading into broader risk-off",
    "Reversal of recent value/defensive/industrial leadership back to growth",
    "Geopolitical re-escalation affecting energy and risk assets"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "expected_return_pct": 1.1,
      "invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rotation back into mega-cap growth or negative surprise in labor/cost data driving broad equity selloff",
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Recent relative strength and defensive characteristics supported by breadth and upcoming data catalysts favor outperformance versus cap-weighted SPY over the one-week window.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "July 30 GDP/PCE and July 31 ECI releases plus any healthcare-related earnings flow"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 1.4,
      "invalidation_condition": "Reversal of recent outperformance on rising rates or risk-off move exceeding 2% in SPY",
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "rationale": "Strongest recent absolute and active returns among finalists with lower correlation to mega-cap tech weakness; continuation supported by industrial breadth.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC outcome July 29 and any defense/industrial commentary around GDP"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.9,
      "invalidation_condition": "Hawkish FOMC surprise lifting 10y yield sharply above 4.75% or credit stress signals",
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Positive prior active trend, new highs proximity, and rate-sensitive positioning ahead of FOMC favor modest outperformance.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "FOMC statement and press conference July 29"
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "expected_return_pct": 0.7,
      "invalidation_condition": "Narrow mega-cap leadership reasserting and RSP underperforming SPY by >1% intraday",
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "rationale": "Captures better market breadth (RSP outperforming SPY) without single-sector concentration while still clearing the SPY base hurdle.",
      "time_window_catalyst": "Breadth continuation through mega-cap earnings (MSFT/META/AAPL/AMZN) and GDP"
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.045,
  "portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio tilts to recent relative-strength areas (healthcare, aerospace/defense, financials) and equal-weight breadth that have base forecasts above SPY while respecting the 50% cluster cap. Avoids weak recent tech/growth and high-vol names given VIX at 18.67 and mixed macro calendar.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "SPY base is modest given recent negative 5-session return and mega-cap drag; selected names show superior recent active returns, shallower relative drawdowns in several cases, and catalysts (FOMC, GDP, earnings) that can sustain rotation. Allocations stay diversified across four clusters.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-07-27-1W",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 16162,
    "latency_seconds": 52.7291675680317,
    "output_tokens": 2686,
    "reasoning_tokens": 570,
    "total_tokens": 19418
  }
}

Public model run

Model Portfolios

This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.

Model	Provider	Portfolio	Confidence	Protocol
Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5	Anthropic	Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%S&P 500 (SPY)10%	0.60	Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8	Anthropic	Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Industrials Sector (XLI)25%Financials Sector (XLF)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15%S&P 500 (SPY)10%	0.55	Portfolio round
Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5	Anthropic	Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%Gold (IAU)15%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15%	0.55	Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro	Google	S&P 500 (SPY)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Industrials Sector (XLI)25%	0.60	Portfolio round
GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5	OpenAI	Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)20%	0.56	Portfolio round
GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol	OpenAI	Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25%Cybersecurity (CIBR)20%	0.59	Portfolio round
Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3	xAI	S&P 500 (SPY)40%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Financials Sector (XLF)20%	0.52	Portfolio round
Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5	xAI	Healthcare Sector (XLV)30%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)25%Financials Sector (XLF)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20%	0.58	Portfolio round

Pricing

Starting Prices

Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.


Aerospace and Defense (ITA)	ITA	2026-07-27	243.91	Tiingo adjusted close
Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB)	MBB	2026-07-27	93.37	Tiingo adjusted close
Agriculture Commodities (DBA)	DBA	2026-07-27	27.62	Tiingo adjusted close
Australia Equities (EWA)	EWA	2026-07-27	28.88	Tiingo adjusted close
Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)	ARKQ	2026-07-27	114.87	Tiingo adjusted close
Biotechnology (XBI)	XBI	2026-07-27	150.59	Tiingo adjusted close
Bitcoin ETF (IBIT)	IBIT	2026-07-27	36.77	Tiingo adjusted close
Brazil Equities (EWZ)	EWZ	2026-07-27	35.87	Tiingo adjusted close
Broad AI Technology (AIQ)	AIQ	2026-07-27	58.30	Tiingo adjusted close
Broad Commodities (PDBC)	PDBC	2026-07-27	17.34	Tiingo adjusted close
Canada Equities (EWC)	EWC	2026-07-27	59.39	Tiingo adjusted close
Cash / Do Not Invest		2026-07-27	1.00	cash
China Equities (MCHI)	MCHI	2026-07-27	54.26	Tiingo adjusted close
Communication Services Sector (XLC)	XLC	2026-07-27	107.66	Tiingo adjusted close
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)	XLY	2026-07-27	110.84	Tiingo adjusted close
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)	XLP	2026-07-27	85.36	Tiingo adjusted close
Copper (CPER)	CPER	2026-07-27	38.77	Tiingo adjusted close
Crude Oil (USO)	USO	2026-07-27	124.76	Tiingo adjusted close
Cybersecurity (CIBR)	CIBR	2026-07-27	89.10	Tiingo adjusted close
Developed Markets ex-US (VEA)	VEA	2026-07-27	70.00	Tiingo adjusted close
Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB)	EMB	2026-07-27	94.96	Tiingo adjusted close
Emerging Markets (VWO)	VWO	2026-07-27	58.23	Tiingo adjusted close
Energy Sector (XLE)	XLE	2026-07-27	58.36	Tiingo adjusted close
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)	RSP	2026-07-27	215.18	Tiingo adjusted close
Ethereum ETF (ETHA)	ETHA	2026-07-27	14.71	Tiingo adjusted close
Euro (FXE)	FXE	2026-07-27	104.95	Tiingo adjusted close
Europe Equities (VGK)	VGK	2026-07-27	88.84	Tiingo adjusted close
Financials Sector (XLF)	XLF	2026-07-27	56.88	Tiingo adjusted close
Gold (IAU)	IAU	2026-07-27	76.78	Tiingo adjusted close
Healthcare Sector (XLV)	XLV	2026-07-27	163.40	Tiingo adjusted close
High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG)	HYG	2026-07-27	79.27	Tiingo adjusted close
India Equities (INDA)	INDA	2026-07-27	48.89	Tiingo adjusted close
Industrials Sector (XLI)	XLI	2026-07-27	183.20	Tiingo adjusted close
Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF)	IEF	2026-07-27	93.28	Tiingo adjusted close
International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX)	BNDX	2026-07-27	47.92	Tiingo adjusted close
Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)	LQD	2026-07-27	106.51	Tiingo adjusted close
Japan Equities (EWJ)	EWJ	2026-07-27	91.51	Tiingo adjusted close
Japanese Yen (FXY)	FXY	2026-07-27	56.01	Tiingo adjusted close
Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)	TLT	2026-07-27	83.75	Tiingo adjusted close
Materials Sector (XLB)	XLB	2026-07-27	51.39	Tiingo adjusted close
Metals and Mining (XME)	XME	2026-07-27	103.11	Tiingo adjusted close
Mexico Equities (EWW)	EWW	2026-07-27	76.54	Tiingo adjusted close
Municipal Bonds (MUB)	MUB	2026-07-27	105.80	Tiingo adjusted close
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	QQQ	2026-07-27	682.12	Tiingo adjusted close
Real Estate Sector (XLRE)	XLRE	2026-07-27	45.76	Tiingo adjusted close
Regional Banks (KRE)	KRE	2026-07-27	75.52	Tiingo adjusted close
S&P 500 (SPY)	SPY	2026-07-27	739.09	Tiingo adjusted close
Semiconductors (SMH)	SMH	2026-07-27	548.55	Tiingo adjusted close
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)	BIL	2026-07-27	91.62	Tiingo adjusted close
Silver (SLV)	SLV	2026-07-27	52.93	Tiingo adjusted close
Software (IGV)	IGV	2026-07-27	90.91	Tiingo adjusted close
Solar Energy (TAN)	TAN	2026-07-27	51.56	Tiingo adjusted close
South Africa Equities (EZA)	EZA	2026-07-27	61.94	Tiingo adjusted close
South Korea Equities (EWY)	EWY	2026-07-27	161.20	Tiingo adjusted close
Taiwan Equities (EWT)	EWT	2026-07-27	97.81	Tiingo adjusted close
Technology Sector (XLK)	XLK	2026-07-27	174.30	Tiingo adjusted close
Total US Stock Market (VTI)	VTI	2026-07-27	365.18	Tiingo adjusted close
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP)	TIP	2026-07-27	107.39	Tiingo adjusted close
United Kingdom Equities (EWU)	EWU	2026-07-27	47.37	Tiingo adjusted close
US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG)	AGG	2026-07-27	97.69	Tiingo adjusted close
US Dividend Equities (SCHD)	SCHD	2026-07-27	33.43	Tiingo adjusted close
US Dollar (UUP)	UUP	2026-07-27	28.60	Tiingo adjusted close
US Large-Cap Growth (IWF)	IWF	2026-07-27	117.13	Tiingo adjusted close
US Large-Cap Value (IWD)	IWD	2026-07-27	249.74	Tiingo adjusted close
US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)	SPLV	2026-07-27	77.22	Tiingo adjusted close
US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH)	IJH	2026-07-27	76.00	Tiingo adjusted close
US Momentum Equities (MTUM)	MTUM	2026-07-27	302.33	Tiingo adjusted close
US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)	IWM	2026-07-27	292.91	Tiingo adjusted close
US Small-Cap Value (IWN)	IWN	2026-07-27	222.16	Tiingo adjusted close
Utilities Sector (XLU)	XLU	2026-07-27	45.68	Tiingo adjusted close

Audit

Published Hashes

Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.


briefing.md	3ccb9001fc40...184cedec
manifest.yaml	53f244f4da73...8f4cff69
market_data/decision_context_source_history.json	6cd55571fe96...adc4adb9
market_data/universe_decision_context.csv	8e354320f4ab...2d485352
market_data/universe_decision_context.json	22594ae6c770...7e701237
market_data/universe_decision_context.md	040cb4f7eadf...3e08ccab
market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json	536ddfe86f90...76a8a3fd
market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md	5f99e682d91f...c8f6f792
options.yaml	1003c5795615...4ce0c729
prompt.md	1a844da9c59a...0a93c261
submission_schema.json	722025ee45d2...4ff79571