Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 3.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 79.8 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward growth and technology, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-03 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260827-weekly
32,039 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- Decision date: 2026-08-26
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-27T05:00:41Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-27T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-08-27
- Exit date: 2026-09-03
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Factual Briefing — August 26, 2026 Close
Research cutoff: 2026-08-27T05:00:41Z. Latest completed U.S. market session: August 26, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset data
- On August 26, the S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70, down less than 0.1%; the Dow closed at 53,463.88, down 0.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,130.20, down 0.1%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 3,005.90, down 0.1%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.65% late August 26, compared with 4.64% late August 25.
- Brent crude settled at $86.94 per barrel on August 26, down 0.4% on the day, after trading as low as $84.56. It had ended the prior week at $94.
- South Korea's Kospi rose 1.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% on August 26; indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia.
## U.S. inflation, income, and output
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported July personal income up 0.4% month over month, disposable personal income up 0.5%, current-dollar consumer spending up 0.2%, and a 3.0% personal saving rate.
- The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. Core PCE prices rose 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year. The 3.7% headline rate was unchanged from June; the FactSet economist consensus reported by the Associated Press was 3.6%.
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, unchanged from the advance estimate and below the first quarter's 2.1%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, and real gross domestic income rose 2.2%.
- Second-quarter PCE prices rose at a 5.3% annual rate and core PCE prices rose 3.6%. Profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion.
## Labor, manufacturing, and housing
- July nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. May and June payroll changes were revised down by a combined 103,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described both July payroll employment and unemployment as little changed.
- July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% month over month to $339.3 billion. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.4%, orders excluding defense rose 1.3%, and transportation-equipment orders rose 2.3%. Census states that the survey does not have computable sampling errors.
- July new single-family home sales fell 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 and were 6.3% below a year earlier. Inventory was 488,000 homes, equal to 9.6 months of supply; the median sales price was $393,800.
## Policy and energy
- The Federal Open Market Committee maintained a 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target range on July 29 by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and includes economic projections.
- EIA data for the week ended August 21 showed commercial crude inventories up 0.1 million barrels to 428.9 million, 1% above the five-year seasonal average.
- Gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels and were 6% below the five-year average; distillate inventories fell 2.2 million barrels and were about 14% below the five-year average.
- Four-week total petroleum products supplied averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, down 3.0% from a year earlier.
## Corporate release after the close
- NVIDIA reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% year over year; Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year. GAAP gross margin was 75.0% and GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.46.
- NVIDIA forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and GAAP gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. The forecast assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China and is identified by the company as forward-looking and subject to risks.
## Scheduled events within the decision windows
- August 27: Census Advance Economic Indicators at 8:30 a.m. ET and preliminary steel-import data at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 27–29: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday, August 28.
- August 28: preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark revision and first-quarter County Employment and Wages at 10:00 a.m. ET. BLS says the preliminary benchmark will not immediately revise official payroll estimates.
- September 1–3: July JOLTS and construction spending on September 1; July factory orders on September 2; revised second-quarter productivity and July international trade on September 3.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 10–11: August producer prices on September 10 and consumer prices on September 11, both at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–17: FOMC meeting September 15–16; August import/export prices and retail sales on September 16; August housing starts and permits on September 17.
- September 24–25: August new-home sales on September 24 and advance August durable-goods orders on September 25.
All datapoints above were fixed at the research cutoff. They are descriptive facts and scheduled releases, not forecasts by CapitalBench. No item is a recommendation, ranking, expected-return estimate, affected-option mapping, or substitute for the complete mechanical appendices that follow.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-26-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-26'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-27T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-27T04:42:04.215634+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-27'
exit_date: '2026-09-03'
created_at: '2026-08-27T04:42:04.215634+00:00'
notes: 'Brand-new direct public-web research for the 2026-08-26 decision date; latest completed U.S. session 2026-08-26. No prior input report was opened, copied, or used. One-shot closed-capability V3 run.'# CapitalBench Factual Briefing — August 26, 2026 Close
Research cutoff: 2026-08-27T05:00:41Z. Latest completed U.S. market session: August 26, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset data
- On August 26, the S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70, down less than 0.1%; the Dow closed at 53,463.88, down 0.2%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,130.20, down 0.1%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 3,005.90, down 0.1%.
- The 10-year Treasury yield was 4.65% late August 26, compared with 4.64% late August 25.
- Brent crude settled at $86.94 per barrel on August 26, down 0.4% on the day, after trading as low as $84.56. It had ended the prior week at $94.
- South Korea's Kospi rose 1.0% and Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% on August 26; indexes rose across much of Europe and Asia.
## U.S. inflation, income, and output
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported July personal income up 0.4% month over month, disposable personal income up 0.5%, current-dollar consumer spending up 0.2%, and a 3.0% personal saving rate.
- The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year. Core PCE prices rose 0.2% month over month and 3.3% year over year. The 3.7% headline rate was unchanged from June; the FactSet economist consensus reported by the Associated Press was 3.6%.
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, unchanged from the advance estimate and below the first quarter's 2.1%. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, and real gross domestic income rose 2.2%.
- Second-quarter PCE prices rose at a 5.3% annual rate and core PCE prices rose 3.6%. Profits from current production increased by $400.9 billion.
## Labor, manufacturing, and housing
- July nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. May and June payroll changes were revised down by a combined 103,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics described both July payroll employment and unemployment as little changed.
- July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% month over month to $339.3 billion. Orders excluding transportation rose 0.4%, orders excluding defense rose 1.3%, and transportation-equipment orders rose 2.3%. Census states that the survey does not have computable sampling errors.
- July new single-family home sales fell 10.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 607,000 and were 6.3% below a year earlier. Inventory was 488,000 homes, equal to 9.6 months of supply; the median sales price was $393,800.
## Policy and energy
- The Federal Open Market Committee maintained a 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target range on July 29 by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16 and includes economic projections.
- EIA data for the week ended August 21 showed commercial crude inventories up 0.1 million barrels to 428.9 million, 1% above the five-year seasonal average.
- Gasoline inventories fell 2.5 million barrels and were 6% below the five-year average; distillate inventories fell 2.2 million barrels and were about 14% below the five-year average.
- Four-week total petroleum products supplied averaged 20.5 million barrels per day, down 3.0% from a year earlier.
## Corporate release after the close
- NVIDIA reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% sequentially and 106% year over year; Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year. GAAP gross margin was 75.0% and GAAP diluted earnings per share were $2.46.
- NVIDIA forecast fiscal third-quarter revenue of $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%, and GAAP gross margin of 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points. The forecast assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China and is identified by the company as forward-looking and subject to risks.
## Scheduled events within the decision windows
- August 27: Census Advance Economic Indicators at 8:30 a.m. ET and preliminary steel-import data at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 27–29: Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak Friday, August 28.
- August 28: preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark revision and first-quarter County Employment and Wages at 10:00 a.m. ET. BLS says the preliminary benchmark will not immediately revise official payroll estimates.
- September 1–3: July JOLTS and construction spending on September 1; July factory orders on September 2; revised second-quarter productivity and July international trade on September 3.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 10–11: August producer prices on September 10 and consumer prices on September 11, both at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–17: FOMC meeting September 15–16; August import/export prices and retail sales on September 16; August housing starts and permits on September 17.
- September 24–25: August new-home sales on September 24 and advance August durable-goods orders on September 25.
All datapoints above were fixed at the research cutoff. They are descriptive facts and scheduled releases, not forecasts by CapitalBench. No item is a recommendation, ranking, expected-return estimate, affected-option mapping, or substitute for the complete mechanical appendices that follow.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "0b034a9d298b37a0bba81125a9c7759b164135f8f8ac6beb6555a32d63f61357",
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "0f51768243de9f4eda13ff28a26803b838b449b8fdf77d8ee288775b8f5e06d4",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "e26d0ec1c7a99c630e936dc755d4c21cdd560e68631b063707de4f1faea7171a",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "fef755dc1fa8d58e952c6a557806cc213d4e5b1ba03eb5d98787404bb2d1c8e7",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "bc7956955423ed2a2a0c6dcd0f67e598ce7404477b424994b20a75f283ff863e",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "4486f5d7855650505cb15074c13801583fa622e45f59e3cb85a0f30c726f0eb7",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-26-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
NVIDIA's after-close beat and raised guide is the clearest in-window catalyst; semis and AI/robotics pulled back mildly into it, making their recent dips look like overreactions. Silver combines the strongest medium-term relative trend with a shallow dip and a supportive gold/inflation backdrop. Crypto continuation is too extended, and oil/solar/defense weakness looks fundamental.
SPY flat into Jackson Hole with a strong NVIDIA beat and raise after the close ($108B guide vs $96.2B reported), which should support AI/tech pullback names into the window. Gold/silver retain strong medium trends; oil weakness looks supply-driven. Dispersion at 3.07% is normal; edge favors quality pullbacks in AI-linked exposures.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA guidance already priced or sell-the-news reaction in semis/AI names",
"Hawkish Warsh remarks at Jackson Hole on Aug 28 pressuring high-beta and precious metals",
"Dollar strength (UUP +0.50% 5s) capping silver",
"High-vol picks (SMH 42.8% vol, ARKQ 36.7%) can swing sharply against SPY in one week"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"NVIDIA post-close beat: revenue $96.2B, Data Center +117% YoY, Q3 guide $108B",
"SMH 5s active -0.53% and -16.9% from 52w high into a strong catalyst",
"Prior active rank 0.731 with deep recent pullback rank 0.851"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.13% with recent -2.53% pullback; quality score 0.715 top of slate",
"NVIDIA AI-infrastructure beat is a direct tailwind to AI/robotics exposure",
"Volume z -1.13 suggests low-conviction selling"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +12.27% (top rank 1.000) with modest -1.80% dip",
"Gold +14.1% over 21s and core PCE at 3.3% supports precious metals bid",
"Shallow horizon drawdown -3.58% despite high vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +9.39% with only -0.30% recent giveback; quality 0.717",
"Near 52w high (-0.68%) with positive volume z 0.61"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.60% and recent +3.16% active with positive volume z 0.49",
"Gold up 14.1% over 21 sessions supports the mining complex"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +6.63% but Brent fell from $94 to $86.94 in a week",
"Gasoline and distillate inventories below 5-year averages offer some floor"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +11.37%, Kospi +1.0% on Aug 26; semis tailwind from NVIDIA",
"Very high 67% vol and beta 3.84 make outcome dispersion extreme"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +3.21% with -1.58% recent pullback but deep -9.53% drawdown",
"No specific in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+15.03% active 5s with volume z 1.90 — extended after sharp bounce",
"Still -37.6% from 52w high; no in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+17.83% active 5s with volume z 2.19 — chase risk after vertical move",
"-47.9% from 52w high; 53.6% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; flat 0.05% week, -1.52% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Both recent (-3.58%) and prior (-3.33%) active negative — trend, not shock",
"No supplied catalyst within the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent fell $94 to $86.94; crude inventories built and demand -3.0% YoY",
"52.5% vol and -11.16% drawdown; -5.41% 3s move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-34% from 52w high with weak prior trend (-1.02% active)",
"-9.46% drawdown and 37% vol with no supplied catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SILVER": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SILVER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY flat into Jackson Hole with a strong NVIDIA beat and raise after the close ($108B guide vs $96.2B reported), which should support AI/tech pullback names into the window. Gold/silver retain strong medium trends; oil weakness looks supply-driven. Dispersion at 3.07% is normal; edge favors quality pullbacks in AI-linked exposures.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "NVIDIA's after-close beat and raised guide is the clearest in-window catalyst; semis and AI/robotics pulled back mildly into it, making their recent dips look like overreactions. Silver combines the strongest medium-term relative trend with a shallow dip and a supportive gold/inflation backdrop. Crypto continuation is too extended, and oil/solar/defense weakness looks fundamental.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY flat into Jackson Hole with a strong NVIDIA beat and raise after the close ($108B guide vs $96.2B reported), which should support AI/tech pullback names into the window. Gold/silver retain strong medium trends; oil weakness looks supply-driven. Dispersion at 3.07% is normal; edge favors quality pullbacks in AI-linked exposures.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27897,
"latency_seconds": 46.61196844303049,
"output_tokens": 3869,
"total_tokens": 31766
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Favor high-quality pullbacks with intact prior relative trends and a concrete in-window catalyst (NVIDIA guidance for AI/robotics hardware; product inventory draws for energy) over extended crypto and metals momentum. Crypto's 15-18% one-week active gains on extreme volume are classified continuation, not overreaction, so they are ineligible.
Flat tape into Jackson Hole with sticky 3.7% headline PCE, soft payrolls and a hawkish-leaning FOMC split. NVIDIA's large beat and $108B guide is a concrete in-window catalyst for AI/semis-linked exposure. Dispersion (3.07% 5s active) is normal; breadth improved short-term (RSP > SPY). Crypto's huge 5-day active surge on 2+ volume z is a stretched move, not a reversal setup.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Jackson Hole remarks from Chair Warsh could trigger a hawkish rate shock hitting high-beta tech",
"NVIDIA sell-the-news reaction could reverse AI-linked names rather than lift them",
"Crude weakness may extend and drag energy equities despite favorable product inventories",
"Sticky 3.7% PCE with a split FOMC raises September hike risk premium"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-2.53% 5s active after +7.13% prior 16s active",
"Highest quality score 0.715 among tech candidates",
"NVIDIA guide supports AI hardware complex"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.58% 5s active vs +3.21% prior trend",
"Quality score 0.662, recent pullback rank 0.94",
"Volume z 0.11, no distribution signal"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.42% 5s active after +6.63% prior active",
"Highest quality score 0.744; only -2.07% from 52w high",
"Gasoline and distillate inventories drew sharply"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+9.39% prior active, at 52w high (-0.68%)",
"Only -0.30% recent active, minimal pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+11.60% prior active, +3.16% recent active",
"43% vol, low pullback rank 0.06"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+12.27% prior active; gold +14.1% 21s",
"-1.80% recent return, extended move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.58% 5s active on top of -3.33% prior active",
"-7.83% 21s drawdown, persistent underperformance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+11.37% prior active, Kospi +1.0% on Aug 26",
"67% vol, beta 3.84 to SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -0.39% 5s return, 12.96% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+15.03% 5s active with volume z 1.90",
"Still -37.6% from 52w high; stretched short-term"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+17.83% 5s active, volume z 2.20",
"53.6% vol; giveback risk after vertical move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-34% from 52w high, -1.02% prior active",
"37% vol, -9.46% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent fell from $94 to $86.94 week over week",
"Crude inventories 1% above five-year average",
"Products supplied down 3.0% year over year"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS": 35,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"ENERGY": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ENERGY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Flat tape into Jackson Hole with sticky 3.7% headline PCE, soft payrolls and a hawkish-leaning FOMC split. NVIDIA's large beat and $108B guide is a concrete in-window catalyst for AI/semis-linked exposure. Dispersion (3.07% 5s active) is normal; breadth improved short-term (RSP > SPY). Crypto's huge 5-day active surge on 2+ volume z is a stretched move, not a reversal setup.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ENERGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor high-quality pullbacks with intact prior relative trends and a concrete in-window catalyst (NVIDIA guidance for AI/robotics hardware; product inventory draws for energy) over extended crypto and metals momentum. Crypto's 15-18% one-week active gains on extreme volume are classified continuation, not overreaction, so they are ineligible.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Flat tape into Jackson Hole with sticky 3.7% headline PCE, soft payrolls and a hawkish-leaning FOMC split. NVIDIA's large beat and $108B guide is a concrete in-window catalyst for AI/semis-linked exposure. Dispersion (3.07% 5s active) is normal; breadth improved short-term (RSP > SPY). Crypto's huge 5-day active surge on 2+ volume z is a stretched move, not a reversal setup.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27897,
"latency_seconds": 38.16867495299084,
"output_tokens": 3065,
"total_tokens": 30962
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, suggesting potential for reversal. AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, SOLAR, and CYBERSECURITY all show strong quality evidence scores and significant recent pullbacks, making them attractive candidates for a short-term rebound.
The market is relatively flat with mixed signals. Inflation data is steady, and GDP growth is moderate. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and payroll data could introduce volatility.
{
"confidence": 0.6033,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Volatility from upcoming economic data releases, particularly the Jackson Hole symposium and payroll data.",
"Potential for continued downward momentum in the selected sectors if the recent pullbacks are indicative of broader fundamental deterioration rather than temporary overreactions."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.40% with a prior active rank of 0.313.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.488."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.09% with a high recent pullback rank of 0.985.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.547."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.59% with a high quality evidence score of 0.715.",
"Prior active rank of 0.881 and recent pullback rank of 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -5.41% with a high recent pullback rank of 0.955.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.660."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.25% with a high recent pullback rank of 0.940.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.662."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank of 1.000.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.537."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank of 0.985.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.499."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank of 0.970.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.463."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 2.25% with a high volume z-score of 2.19.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.432."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.79% with a high volume z-score of 1.90.",
"Quality evidence score of 0.413."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.90% with a high quality evidence score of 0.744.",
"Prior active rank of 0.866 and recent pullback rank of 0.925."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.61% with a high quality evidence score of 0.717.",
"Prior active rank of 0.940 and recent pullback rank of 0.776."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS": 35,
"CYBERSECURITY": 30,
"SOLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is relatively flat with mixed signals. Inflation data is steady, and GDP growth is moderate. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and payroll data could introduce volatility.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SOLAR",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks, suggesting potential for reversal. AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, SOLAR, and CYBERSECURITY all show strong quality evidence scores and significant recent pullbacks, making them attractive candidates for a short-term rebound.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is relatively flat with mixed signals. Inflation data is steady, and GDP growth is moderate. The upcoming Jackson Hole symposium and payroll data could introduce volatility.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19100,
"latency_seconds": 21.61436353001045,
"output_tokens": 2903,
"total_tokens": 22003
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The strongest one-week setup is a selective technology rebound: semiconductors receive a direct earnings catalyst, while robotics and cybersecurity combine prior strength with sharp relative pullbacks. Broad momentum trades and energy exposures face greater overextension or fundamental deterioration.
High cross-sectional dispersion and conflicting macro signals favor selective reversals rather than broad beta. NVIDIA's strong report supports a near-term technology rebound, while elevated inflation, 4.65% Treasury yields, weak payrolls, and softer petroleum demand limit risk appetite.
{
"confidence": 0.5667,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA's strong results may already be priced in, producing a sell-the-news technology reversal",
"Jackson Hole remarks could push yields higher and pressure high-beta growth exposures",
"Elevated inflation and weak labor data could trigger a broad risk-off move",
"The selected technology exposures are correlated and may decline together"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"NVIDIA reported 106% year-over-year revenue growth and guided next-quarter revenue to $108 billion",
"Semiconductors lagged SPY by 0.53% recently after a 2.11% prior active gain",
"The exposure is 16.91% below its 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.53% after a 7.13% prior active gain",
"Quality evidence score was 0.715 with a 0.970 recent-pullback rank",
"NVIDIA's strong revenue and guidance provide an in-window technology catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -1.58% after a 3.21% prior active gain",
"Its recent-pullback rank was 0.940 and quality score was 0.662",
"Positive volume z-score contrasts with broadly depressed trading volume"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 9.39%, the strongest among quality-pullback slate candidates",
"It remained only 0.68% below its 52-week high",
"Positive volume z-score of 0.61 accompanies a shallow 3.64% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"NVIDIA's after-close results provide a specific mega-cap technology catalyst",
"Recent active return was -0.27% after a 2.20% prior active gain",
"Quality evidence score was 0.659"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was slate-leading at 0.744 and prior active return was 6.63%",
"Recent active return fell 1.42% as Brent declined from $94 at the prior week-end",
"Four-week petroleum products supplied was down 3.0% year over year"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 12.27% and recent active return remained 3.02%",
"Its 21-session drawdown was limited to 3.58%",
"Elevated inflation can support precious metals, though yields remain high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 11.60% and recent active return was 3.16%",
"Volume z-score was positive at 0.49",
"High 43.17% volatility raises one-week reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY fell 0.39% over five sessions after gaining 3.40% over 21 sessions",
"Only 52.17% of assets were positive over five sessions",
"The index ended 1.52% below its 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Oil fell 5.41% over three sessions and lagged SPY by 2.33% over five sessions",
"Brent fell from $94 at the prior week-end to $86.94",
"Petroleum products supplied was down 3.0% year over year despite low refined-product inventories"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -3.58%, but prior active return was also negative at -3.33%",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.488",
"The 21-session drawdown reached 7.83% without a supplied near-term catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.96% and prior active return was also negative",
"The exposure was 34.02% below its 52-week high",
"High 37.42% volatility and 2.44 beta amplify rate-related risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior and recent active returns were 11.37% and 3.11% respectively",
"The Kospi rose 1.0% on August 26",
"Extreme 67.37% volatility and 3.84 beta create substantial reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 15.03% on a 1.90 volume z-score",
"Prior active return was positive at 3.50%",
"The abrupt move creates substantial one-week mean-reversion risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 17.83% with a 2.20 volume z-score",
"Prior active return was positive at 5.79%",
"Volatility was 53.56%, increasing post-surge reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS": 35,
"CYBERSECURITY": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "High cross-sectional dispersion and conflicting macro signals favor selective reversals rather than broad beta. NVIDIA's strong report supports a near-term technology rebound, while elevated inflation, 4.65% Treasury yields, weak payrolls, and softer petroleum demand limit risk appetite.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The strongest one-week setup is a selective technology rebound: semiconductors receive a direct earnings catalyst, while robotics and cybersecurity combine prior strength with sharp relative pullbacks. Broad momentum trades and energy exposures face greater overextension or fundamental deterioration.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "High cross-sectional dispersion and conflicting macro signals favor selective reversals rather than broad beta. NVIDIA's strong report supports a near-term technology rebound, while elevated inflation, 4.65% Treasury yields, weak payrolls, and softer petroleum demand limit risk appetite.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15891,
"latency_seconds": 47.79984640999464,
"output_tokens": 4434,
"reasoning_tokens": 2009,
"total_tokens": 20325
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Crypto continuation supported by volume and prior active; biotech selected for quality pullback reversal potential within one-week horizon.
Mixed signals with equity weakness offset by crypto volume strength and commodity pullbacks; one-week window favors selective reversal and continuation candidates over broad benchmark.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"crypto volatility exceeding 50%",
"NVIDIA guidance execution risk",
"FOMC September meeting uncertainty",
"oil inventory and demand weakness"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 2.19",
"prior active 5.79"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 1.90",
"prior active 3.50"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 61,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.717",
"recent active -0.30"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 44,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 11.60",
"recent active 3.16"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 39,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 11.37",
"recent active 3.11"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 12.27",
"recent active 3.02"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"spy_return_5s -0.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.744",
"recent active -1.42"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.662",
"recent active -1.58"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.715",
"recent active -2.53"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.488",
"recent active -3.58"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"52w-high distance -34.02",
"recent active -2.96"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 27,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return -5.41",
"volume z -0.88"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 24,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 27,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 24,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals with equity weakness offset by crypto volume strength and commodity pullbacks; one-week window favors selective reversal and continuation candidates over broad benchmark.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"BIOTECH"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Crypto continuation supported by volume and prior active; biotech selected for quality pullback reversal potential within one-week horizon.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals with equity weakness offset by crypto volume strength and commodity pullbacks; one-week window favors selective reversal and continuation candidates over broad benchmark.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16111,
"latency_seconds": 14.251093326951377,
"output_tokens": 1791,
"reasoning_tokens": 434,
"total_tokens": 18336
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Quality pullbacks in ENERGY, BIOTECH, and AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS offer the clearest short-horizon mean-reversion cases versus SPY after strong prior actives and recent relative weakness; crypto and metals show continuation but higher fade risk over one week; overall prefer SPY baseline given modest dispersion and macro data noise.
SPY near flat with low single-week vol; mixed cross-asset signals from oil weakness, crypto volume spikes, quality pullbacks in energy/tech themes, and modest international strength amid sticky PCE and soft labor data. One-week edge limited outside selective mean-reversion.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Jackson Hole Fed speech and sticky 3.7% PCE could reprice rates and growth equities",
"oil/energy inventory and demand data may extend commodity weakness",
"crypto volume spikes can reverse sharply on risk-off or liquidity shifts",
"soft labor/housing prints raise recession-sensitivity for cyclicals"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.744 with high prior active and recent pullback ranks",
"active_return_5s -1.42% after prior_16s_active +6.63%",
"negative SPY corr and oil inventory/supply context"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.717",
"recent active near flat after strong prior active +9.39%",
"low SPY corr 0.31 and shallow distance to 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.715 with extreme recent pullback rank",
"active_return_5s -2.53% after prior +7.13%",
"NVIDIA data-center strength as related tech backdrop"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.662 and high recent pullback rank",
"active_return_5s -1.58% after prior +3.21%",
"moderate vol and drawdown context"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"sharp recent -5.41% and active -2.33% after prior +4.84%",
"Brent down from prior-week $94 to ~$87",
"negative SPY beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -3.58% with max recent pullback rank in quality table",
"horizon drawdown -7.83%",
"durable-goods transportation orders up"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s -2.96% and deep 52w-high distance -34%",
"quality pullback rank very high",
"elevated horizon vol 37%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +3.16% and prior +11.60%",
"medium_strength lane with positive recent return",
"elevated vol 43%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +12.27% and active_5s +3.02%",
"medium_strength profile",
"deep 52w distance -41%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +3.11% after prior +11.37%",
"Kospi +1.0% on Aug 26",
"very high horizon vol 67%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +15.03% with volume z 1.90",
"short_continuation lane",
"low SPY corr 0.33"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"active_return_5s +17.83% and volume z 2.19",
"short_continuation and volume dislocation",
"high vol 53% and deep 52w distance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with recent return ~0%",
"horizon vol 12.96% and max DD -1.96%",
"flat close Aug 26"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS": 30,
"BIOTECH": 35,
"ENERGY": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near flat with low single-week vol; mixed cross-asset signals from oil weakness, crypto volume spikes, quality pullbacks in energy/tech themes, and modest international strength amid sticky PCE and soft labor data. One-week edge limited outside selective mean-reversion.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality pullbacks in ENERGY, BIOTECH, and AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS offer the clearest short-horizon mean-reversion cases versus SPY after strong prior actives and recent relative weakness; crypto and metals show continuation but higher fade risk over one week; overall prefer SPY baseline given modest dispersion and macro data noise.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near flat with low single-week vol; mixed cross-asset signals from oil weakness, crypto volume spikes, quality pullbacks in energy/tech themes, and modest international strength amid sticky PCE and soft labor data. One-week edge limited outside selective mean-reversion.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17121,
"latency_seconds": 36.233616399986204,
"output_tokens": 2166,
"reasoning_tokens": 182,
"total_tokens": 19469
}
}xai-grok-4-6
No slate name combines a clean overreaction label with a >=55% chance of beating SPY over one week. Biotech, energy, and metals mining have the least-bad relative setups (quality pullbacks or medium-horizon strength) but still sit near coin-flip versus a low-vol SPY near highs into Jackson Hole.
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion (~3%) after a quiet close; Jackson Hole and mixed inflation/labor prints dominate a one-week window more than single-theme continuation. Crypto volume spikes and metals prior strength coexist with oil/defense shocks, so edges versus SPY are modest.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Jackson Hole remarks on August 28 can reprice rates and growth beta across the entire slate.",
"Oil’s drop from ~$94 to ~$87 can keep dragging ENERGY/OIL even if equities stabilize.",
"Crypto and Korea vol (38–67%) can dominate weekly excess if risk appetite fades.",
"NVIDIA’s after-close print can spill into robotics/tech high-beta names without a one-week mean reversion."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.717 with prior active rank 0.940 and only -0.68% from 52-week high.",
"Recent return +1.61% with SPY beta 0.72 and corr 0.31, so idiosyncratic path is possible.",
"Horizon vol 33.51% keeps one-week excess wide versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score 0.744 with prior active rank 0.866 and only -2.07% from 52-week high.",
"Negative SPY corr (-0.31) and beta (-0.52) can help if Jackson Hole is equity-negative.",
"Brent settled $86.94 after a prior-week $94 close, so energy equities may not bounce with crude."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active 11.60% and recent active +3.16% with quality prior-active rank 0.985.",
"Volume z 0.49 is not a dislocation; 21s vol 43.17% is high.",
"Distance to 52w high -9.36% leaves room but also trend-break risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed 7675.70, down less than 0.1%, 52w-high distance -1.52%.",
"Horizon vol 12.96% and max drawdown -1.96% are the lowest-risk equity baseline on the slate.",
"5s positive-asset share 52% and RSP-SPY 5s +0.41% show no strong cap-weighted continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -1.58% after prior active +3.21%; quality pullback rank 0.940.",
"Quality score 0.662 but shallow-drawdown rank 0.015 after -9.53% horizon drawdown.",
"SPY corr 0.56 so a bounce is not independent of the index."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.58% with recent pullback rank 1.000, the deepest on the quality table.",
"Prior active was already -3.33%, so the slide is not a one-week shock only.",
"Beta 0.80 and corr 0.43 versus SPY; July durable-goods transportation orders rose 2.3%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active 12.27% is the strongest metals prior trend; recent return -1.80%.",
"52w-high distance -41.68% and quality recent-pullback rank only 0.090.",
"IAU 21s +14.10% shows precious-metals trend, but SLV weekly print is a pause."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +15.03% with volume z 1.90.",
"SPY corr 0.33 and beta ~1.01; 52w-high distance -37.64%.",
"Horizon vol 38.83% makes one-week excess versus SPY highly two-sided."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +17.83% and volume z 2.19, the largest volume dislocation on the slate.",
"Quality recent-pullback rank 0.000 after the spike; 52w-high distance -47.89%.",
"Vol 53.56% dominates any continuation claim over five trading days."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.715 with recent pullback rank 0.970 after -2.59% recent return.",
"Prior active +7.13% and NVIDIA printed $96.2B revenue with $108B Q3 guide after the close.",
"Beta 2.37 and vol 36.72% plus volume z -1.13 argue against a clean bounce."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active 11.37% and Kospi +1.0% on August 26.",
"Horizon vol 67.37% and beta 3.84 versus SPY are extreme for a one-week bet.",
"Volume z -1.20 and 52w-high distance -18.26%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO recent -5.41%; Brent from prior-week $94 to $86.94 with a $84.56 low.",
"EIA crude stocks 1% above five-year average; four-week products supplied -3.0% y/y.",
"Vol 52.48%, max drawdown -11.16%, negative SPY beta."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"52w-high distance -34.02% with prior active already -1.02%.",
"Beta 2.43, vol 37.42%, drawdown -9.46%.",
"Quality pullback rank 0.985 is mechanical; no in-window solar catalyst in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_KOREA",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"ENERGY",
"BIOTECH",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion (~3%) after a quiet close; Jackson Hole and mixed inflation/labor prints dominate a one-week window more than single-theme continuation. Crypto volume spikes and metals prior strength coexist with oil/defense shocks, so edges versus SPY are modest.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"ENERGY",
"METALS_MINING"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No slate name combines a clean overreaction label with a >=55% chance of beating SPY over one week. Biotech, energy, and metals mining have the least-bad relative setups (quality pullbacks or medium-horizon strength) but still sit near coin-flip versus a low-vol SPY near highs into Jackson Hole.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion (~3%) after a quiet close; Jackson Hole and mixed inflation/labor prints dominate a one-week window more than single-theme continuation. Crypto volume spikes and metals prior strength coexist with oil/defense shocks, so edges versus SPY are modest.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-26-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17263,
"latency_seconds": 45.88343929400435,
"output_tokens": 2666,
"reasoning_tokens": 404,
"total_tokens": 20333
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)35%Silver (SLV)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Energy Sector (XLE)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)35%Solar Energy (TAN)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)35%Biotechnology (XBI)35%Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | d7c15b1b3b6a...2ebd6360 |
| manifest.yaml | 0b034a9d298b...63f61357 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 739eea229d07...75697e2e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 0f51768243de...8f5e06d4 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | e26d0ec1c7a9...aea7171a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | fef755dc1fa8...b2d1c8e7 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | bc7956955423...83ff863e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 4486f5d78556...726f0eb7 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |