Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 57.3 out of 100, with 35.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +56.43%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 68.0 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
70 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-07 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20261001-1W-clean
30,984 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- Decision date: 2026-10-01
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-10-01T07:28:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-10-01T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-09-30
- Exit date: 2026-10-07
- Entry rule: Use the September 30, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use the October 7, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Factual Briefing — October 1, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-10-01T07:28:00Z**. Latest completed U.S. market session: **September 30, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. economy and inflation
- BEA reported that August personal income rose 0.2% month over month, disposable personal income rose 0.3%, nominal PCE rose 0.9%, and real PCE rose 0.6%. The personal saving rate was 4.1%.
- The August PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
- BEA's September 30 annual update revised historical national-account estimates beginning with January 2021.
- BEA's third estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annualized rate; first-quarter growth was revised to 2.5%. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed positively, while imports increased.
## Labor market
- August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 and unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. Labor-force participation was 61.6%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August and 3.1% over twelve months. BLS revised the combined June and July payroll change upward by 55,000.
- Monthly labor estimates are survey-based and remain subject to revision.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.
- September FOMC median projections for 2026 were 2.3% real-GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant projections, not a committed policy path.
- At the September 30 close, U.S. Treasury par yields were 4.88% at two years, 5.29% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years.
## Market and cross-asset observations
- On September 30, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,651.54, the Dow fell 0.9% to 50,906.05, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,861.06, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4% to 2,796.86. Most U.S. stocks declined during the session.
- U.S. commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels for the week ended September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable 2025 week.
- EIA's September forecast placed U.S. distillate inventories below 100 million barrels in September and below their 2021–2025 seasonal low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027. This is a conditional forecast.
## International conditions
- China's official September manufacturing PMI was 50.1, with production at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5. Large-enterprise PMI was 50.6; medium and small enterprises were at 49.7 and 48.9.
- The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points in September, setting the deposit facility at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%.
- ECB staff projected headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, and real growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. The ECB described the outlook as highly uncertain, with upside inflation and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled events
- October 1: September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- October 2: September U.S. Employment Situation.
- October 5: September ISM Services PMI.
- October 6: August U.S. international trade and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- October 7: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- October 14–16: September CPI, PPI, real earnings, and import/export prices.
- October 20: September housing starts and permits and September state employment.
- October 27–28: scheduled FOMC meeting.
- October 28: advance September trade, retail, and wholesale indicators.
- October 29: advance third-quarter GDP and September Personal Income and Outlays.
- October 30: third-quarter Employment Cost Index.
This briefing supplies common factual context only. It does not identify favored assets, sectors, countries, styles, durations, commodities, currencies, or digital assets. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-10-01-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-10-01'
decision_deadline: '2026-10-01T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-0b6d5af936fa
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-10-01T07:27:14.956854+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the September 30, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use the October 7, 2026 official adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-09-30'
exit_date: '2026-10-07'
created_at: '2026-10-01T07:27:14.956854+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh direct public-source research frozen on 2026-10-01 America/Toronto; research cutoff 2026-10-01T07:28:00Z; latest completed U.S. market session 2026-09-30. One-shot closed-capability calls have tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Factual Briefing — October 1, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-10-01T07:28:00Z**. Latest completed U.S. market session: **September 30, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. economy and inflation
- BEA reported that August personal income rose 0.2% month over month, disposable personal income rose 0.3%, nominal PCE rose 0.9%, and real PCE rose 0.6%. The personal saving rate was 4.1%.
- The August PCE price index rose 0.3% month over month and 3.4% year over year. Excluding food and energy, it rose 0.2% month over month and 3.0% year over year.
- BEA's September 30 annual update revised historical national-account estimates beginning with January 2021.
- BEA's third estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 2.2% annualized rate; first-quarter growth was revised to 2.5%. Consumer spending, investment, and exports contributed positively, while imports increased.
## Labor market
- August nonfarm payrolls increased by 162,000 and unemployment was unchanged at 4.1%. Labor-force participation was 61.6%.
- Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in August and 3.1% over twelve months. BLS revised the combined June and July payroll change upward by 55,000.
- Monthly labor estimates are survey-based and remain subject to revision.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised the federal-funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a 12–0 vote.
- September FOMC median projections for 2026 were 2.3% real-GDP growth, 4.1% unemployment, 3.7% PCE inflation, 3.4% core PCE inflation, and a 4.1% year-end federal-funds rate. These are participant projections, not a committed policy path.
- At the September 30 close, U.S. Treasury par yields were 4.88% at two years, 5.29% at ten years, and 5.64% at thirty years.
## Market and cross-asset observations
- On September 30, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,651.54, the Dow fell 0.9% to 50,906.05, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,861.06, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.4% to 2,796.86. Most U.S. stocks declined during the session.
- U.S. commercial crude inventories excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 427.320 million barrels for the week ended September 25, up 0.922 million from the prior week and 10.774 million from the comparable 2025 week.
- EIA's September forecast placed U.S. distillate inventories below 100 million barrels in September and below their 2021–2025 seasonal low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027. This is a conditional forecast.
## International conditions
- China's official September manufacturing PMI was 50.1, with production at 51.7 and new orders at 50.5. Large-enterprise PMI was 50.6; medium and small enterprises were at 49.7 and 48.9.
- The ECB raised its three key rates by 25 basis points in September, setting the deposit facility at 2.50%, the main refinancing rate at 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.90%.
- ECB staff projected headline inflation of 3.0% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, and real growth of 0.9% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027. The ECB described the outlook as highly uncertain, with upside inflation and downside growth risks.
## Scheduled events
- October 1: September ISM Manufacturing PMI.
- October 2: September U.S. Employment Situation.
- October 5: September ISM Services PMI.
- October 6: August U.S. international trade and EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.
- October 7: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- October 14–16: September CPI, PPI, real earnings, and import/export prices.
- October 20: September housing starts and permits and September state employment.
- October 27–28: scheduled FOMC meeting.
- October 28: advance September trade, retail, and wholesale indicators.
- October 29: advance third-quarter GDP and September Personal Income and Outlays.
- October 30: third-quarter Employment Cost Index.
This briefing supplies common factual context only. It does not identify favored assets, sectors, countries, styles, durations, commodities, currencies, or digital assets. Price history in the complete mechanical appendix is descriptive context rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-10-01-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
No slate candidate clears the 55% overreaction bar. Long Treasuries are the only plausible overreaction case given heavy volume on the selloff and a jobs-report catalyst, but sticky core PCE and an active hiking cycle keep the probability near 52%. Semis retain relative strength yet lack in-window support beyond macro data; shock-reversal metals and EM names are being driven by higher real yields and a stronger dollar, which reads as fundamental rather than transient. The deterministic rule should therefore default most or all weight to SPY.
Macro backdrop is a hawkish, rising-rate regime: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16, 10y at 5.29%, 30y at 5.64%, PCE inflation 3.4% and sticky core 3.0%. Breadth is poor (positive asset share 13% over 5 sessions, RSP lagging SPY by 4.5% over 21 sessions) with mega-cap tech holding the index up. Week ahead carries ISM manufacturing, the September jobs report (Oct 2), and ISM services, so the main swing factor is whether rates pause. Shock-reversal candidates (silver, miners, South Africa, Mexico) fell on dollar strength and higher real yields, which is a fundamental driver rather than a pure overreaction; long Treasuries have a modest reversal setup on a 2.6 volume z-score and 5.4% drawdown if payrolls soften, but core inflation argues against duration. Semis and crypto show prior relative strength but no in-window catalyst beyond macro data. Net: low confidence in beating SPY, modest tilt toward keeping the benchmark.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot September payrolls or ISM prints push 10y/30y yields higher, extending losses in duration and rate-sensitive assets",
"Weak payrolls trigger a growth scare that sells high-beta semis and crypto while briefly lifting Treasuries",
"Narrow breadth (RSP -4.5% vs SPY over 21 sessions) leaves SPY vulnerable to a mega-cap tech reversal",
"Further dollar strength keeps pressure on precious metals, miners, and EM equities despite oversold readings"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"TLT -3.33% over 5 sessions and -5.38% over 21 with volume z 2.63, 30y yield at 5.64%",
"Oct 2 payrolls and Oct 1/5 ISM prints give a concrete rate catalyst inside the window",
"Core PCE at 3.0% and Fed hiking limits upside, so reversal probability is near coin-flip"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +7.70% and 5-session active +1.94% while most assets fell",
"Volume z -0.72 and beta 2.39 mean strength lacks volume confirmation and carries high two-way risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.01 with only -0.46% active return, drawdown -2.73%, vol 3.83%",
"Low volatility makes it a near-SPY outcome with limited directional edge"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY -0.67% over 5 sessions, 1.72% below 52-week high while breadth is weak"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +4.80%, recent -0.91%, negative SPY beta -0.93 offers diversification",
"Dollar up 2.31% over 21 sessions is a headwind; EIA STEO Oct 6 and inventory data Oct 7 are catalysts"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.03 with flat recent return after -5.52% prior active return and -9.00% drawdown",
"Lowest quality score in universe (0.197); rising long yields pressure rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +8.95% over 21 sessions but -2.13% over 5; vol 47% and drawdown -11.44%",
"Crude inventories up 0.922M w/w and 10.8M above prior year is bearish; distillates below seasonal low is supportive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active +7.61% but 43.8% below 52-week high and vol 46.8%",
"Volume z -0.68 shows fading participation; no in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.710 from prior +1.46% active and -2.11% recent pullback",
"Beta 2.19 with 15.7% below 52-week high; weak prior trend makes pullback thesis thin"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +2.27% follows -4.84% prior active; lowest quality score 0.107",
"Rising long yields hurt financing-sensitive biotech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.50% on top of -4.65% prior active, drawdown -7.64%",
"Dollar +2.31% over 21 sessions and Fed hike are persistent EM headwinds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -6.11% and recent -3.03%, drawdown -10.92%, 19.9% below 52-week high",
"Gold -6.70% over 21 sessions and strong dollar undercut resource-heavy index"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV -6.24% over 3 sessions, 48.4% below 52-week high, vol 41%",
"Rising real yields (10y 5.29%) and dollar strength are structural precious-metal headwinds, not a transient shock"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Worst prior active rank in universe (0.000) with -7.52% prior and -4.82% recent, drawdown -13.61%",
"Volume z -0.46 shows no capitulation; China small/medium PMI below 50"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is a hawkish, rising-rate regime: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16, 10y at 5.29%, 30y at 5.64%, PCE inflation 3.4% and sticky core 3.0%. Breadth is poor (positive asset share 13% over 5 sessions, RSP lagging SPY by 4.5% over 21 sessions) with mega-cap tech holding the index up. Week ahead carries ISM manufacturing, the September jobs report (Oct 2), and ISM services, so the main swing factor is whether rates pause. Shock-reversal candidates (silver, miners, South Africa, Mexico) fell on dollar strength and higher real yields, which is a fundamental driver rather than a pure overreaction; long Treasuries have a modest reversal setup on a 2.6 volume z-score and 5.4% drawdown if payrolls soften, but core inflation argues against duration. Semis and crypto show prior relative strength but no in-window catalyst beyond macro data. Net: low confidence in beating SPY, modest tilt toward keeping the benchmark.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LONG_TREASURY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No slate candidate clears the 55% overreaction bar. Long Treasuries are the only plausible overreaction case given heavy volume on the selloff and a jobs-report catalyst, but sticky core PCE and an active hiking cycle keep the probability near 52%. Semis retain relative strength yet lack in-window support beyond macro data; shock-reversal metals and EM names are being driven by higher real yields and a stronger dollar, which reads as fundamental rather than transient. The deterministic rule should therefore default most or all weight to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is a hawkish, rising-rate regime: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00% on Sept 16, 10y at 5.29%, 30y at 5.64%, PCE inflation 3.4% and sticky core 3.0%. Breadth is poor (positive asset share 13% over 5 sessions, RSP lagging SPY by 4.5% over 21 sessions) with mega-cap tech holding the index up. Week ahead carries ISM manufacturing, the September jobs report (Oct 2), and ISM services, so the main swing factor is whether rates pause. Shock-reversal candidates (silver, miners, South Africa, Mexico) fell on dollar strength and higher real yields, which is a fundamental driver rather than a pure overreaction; long Treasuries have a modest reversal setup on a 2.6 volume z-score and 5.4% drawdown if payrolls soften, but core inflation argues against duration. Semis and crypto show prior relative strength but no in-window catalyst beyond macro data. Net: low confidence in beating SPY, modest tilt toward keeping the benchmark.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27699,
"latency_seconds": 48.15476236800896,
"output_tokens": 3992,
"total_tokens": 31691
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5-5
No candidate clears 55% beat probability; edges are thin under hawkish rates. TLT is the best reversal case but below threshold, so the portfolio defaults to SPY.
Hawkish backdrop: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y at 5.29%, dollar firm, breadth weak (13% positive 5d). Payrolls Oct 2 and ISM are key catalysts. Rate-sensitive and precious metals sold hard; reversal edges are modest given ongoing rate pressure.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Strong Oct 2 payrolls pushing yields higher",
"Hawkish ISM data extending dollar strength",
"Equity selloff broadening given weak breadth"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-2.66% active 5d with volume z 2.63",
"30y at 5.64% after Fed hike; core PCE 0.2% m/m"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.13% 3s, 1.72% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 6.01, beta 0.21",
"HYG -2.73% over 21s"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.60% active, 48% below 52w high",
"Rising real yields and dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +7.70%, recent +1.94%",
"Beta 2.39"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.03; prior active -5.52%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.50% active; strong dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.705; crude inventories rising"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.03% active, tied to falling metals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Vol 46.8%, 43.8% below high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -7.52%, quality 0.316"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Beta 2.19 into high yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Crude stocks +10.8m bbl y/y; vol 47%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.107; rate-sensitive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Hawkish backdrop: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y at 5.29%, dollar firm, breadth weak (13% positive 5d). Payrolls Oct 2 and ISM are key catalysts. Rate-sensitive and precious metals sold hard; reversal edges are modest given ongoing rate pressure.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LONG_TREASURY",
"SP500",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate clears 55% beat probability; edges are thin under hawkish rates. TLT is the best reversal case but below threshold, so the portfolio defaults to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Hawkish backdrop: Fed hiked to 3.75-4.00%, 10y at 5.29%, dollar firm, breadth weak (13% positive 5d). Payrolls Oct 2 and ISM are key catalysts. Rate-sensitive and precious metals sold hard; reversal edges are modest given ongoing rate pressure.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27699,
"latency_seconds": 24.98757927698898,
"output_tokens": 2742,
"total_tokens": 30441
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent drawdowns (shock reversals) and are likely to rebound in the short term, given the mixed market environment and potential for mean reversion.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent declines in broad equities and commodities, while some sectors like semiconductors and biotech show short-term strength. The Fed's recent rate hike and upcoming employment data create uncertainty.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued broad market sell-off could drag down all assets.",
"Upcoming employment data could surprise to the downside, negatively impacting cyclical assets."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -6.24%",
"Quality score of 0.456"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.40%",
"Quality score of 0.316"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.76%",
"Quality score of 0.336"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.94%",
"Quality score of 0.658"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.07%",
"Quality score of 0.422"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.80%",
"Quality score of 0.693"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.40%",
"Quality score of 0.509"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.94%",
"Quality score of 0.554"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.71%",
"Quality score of 0.107"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.55%",
"Quality score of 0.710"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.03%",
"Quality score of 0.705"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.83%",
"Quality score of 0.635"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.18%",
"Quality score of 0.197"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.13%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"METALS_MINING": 35,
"SILVER": 35,
"SOUTH_AFRICA": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent declines in broad equities and commodities, while some sectors like semiconductors and biotech show short-term strength. The Fed's recent rate hike and upcoming employment data create uncertainty.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent drawdowns (shock reversals) and are likely to rebound in the short term, given the mixed market environment and potential for mean reversion.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent declines in broad equities and commodities, while some sectors like semiconductors and biotech show short-term strength. The Fed's recent rate hike and upcoming employment data create uncertainty.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19010,
"latency_seconds": 21.245844912016764,
"output_tokens": 2879,
"total_tokens": 21889
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Oil and broad commodities have modest qualifying reversal cases supported by demand and inventory evidence, rather than trailing strength alone. Their overlapping energy sensitivity reduces diversification. High-yield credit ranks third for relative resilience but does not have sufficient evidence to classify its decline as overreaction. Silver receives a fair overshoot assessment without reaching the eligibility threshold; the other selloffs lack compelling temporary-dislocation evidence.
Five-session active dispersion of 1.34% accompanies weak breadth, dollar strength and a material duration selloff. Recent Fed and ECB hikes provide a fundamental explanation for much of the weakness, rather than a blanket reversal signal. Commodity pullbacks have modest independent support from resilient consumption and tight projected distillate supplies. Employment, ISM and energy releases can change that assessment within the scoring window; confidence in any one-week edge is limited.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Strong employment or ISM releases could reinforce tightening expectations and dollar strength, suppressing commodity and duration-sensitive assets.",
"October 6 and 7 EIA releases could show easing product scarcity or further crude inventory accumulation, invalidating the energy reversal thesis.",
"Oil and broad commodities share energy exposure, so their qualifying signals can fail together.",
"A sharp equity relief rally could cause defensive credit and commodity exposures to lag SPY even if their absolute returns are positive."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -1.46% follows prior active strength of 10.97%; this alone is not a forecast.",
"EIA projects unusually low distillate inventories, while real consumer spending rose 0.6%, providing support beyond price history.",
"Crude inventories increased 0.922 million barrels; October 6 and 7 EIA releases can validate or undermine the reversal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 0.91% contrasts with prior active gain of 4.80%, with a 0.705 mechanical quality score.",
"China manufacturing production and new orders remain above 50, while US real PCE rose 0.6%.",
"Tight projected distillate supplies support the energy component, although dollar strength remains a headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.55,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 6.01 signals unusual trading, but does not establish forced selling.",
"Volatility is 3.83% and SPY beta is 0.21, offering relative resilience if weak breadth persists.",
"GDP growth of 2.2% and unemployment of 4.1% support credit, but the Fed hike provides a valid repricing mechanism."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The 5.60% recent active loss is the deepest slate pullback, making a partial overshoot plausible.",
"Volume z-score of 0.13 offers little evidence of capitulation; prior active return was already -3.62%.",
"China new orders at 50.5 provide limited industrial-demand support, but higher rates and dollar strength constrain reversal conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark, so its excess return is identically zero.",
"Only 13.04% of assets had positive five-session returns, but consumption and employment remain resilient."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.710 combines prior active strength of 1.46% with a recent 2.11% relative pullback.",
"Negative volume z-score and a 4.15% drawdown do not suggest exceptional liquidation.",
"SPY beta of 2.19 leaves substantial sensitivity to the employment and ISM releases; no specific robotics catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active gains of 1.94% and 7.70% establish leadership, not an independent forward catalyst.",
"Volume z-score is -0.72, volatility is 31.23%, and SPY beta is 2.39.",
"The briefing supplies no chip-specific fundamental development to offset rate-sensitive reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.05,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 7.61% and recent active return of 0.23% are unsupported by a supplied digital-asset catalyst.",
"Volatility is 46.84% and volume z-score is -0.68.",
"Recent Fed tightening presents a liquidity-sensitive headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.15,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active gain of 2.27% follows prior underperformance of 4.84%.",
"Mechanical quality score is only 0.107, with volatility of 24.48%.",
"No clinical, regulatory or transaction catalyst is supplied to independently support continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.50% follows prior active loss of 4.65%, weakening the isolated-shock interpretation.",
"Volume z-score of 0.10 does not indicate exceptional liquidation.",
"US consumption supports trade-linked demand, but dollar strength and no supplied country-specific catalyst limit the reversal case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.25,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Fed tightening and a 5.29% ten-year yield create a fundamental discount-rate headwind for rate-sensitive equities.",
"Prior active loss is 5.52%, drawdown is 9.00%, and quality score is 0.197.",
"Volume z-score of 4.03 is notable, but the recent relative loss is only 0.11%, not an extreme fresh shock."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 2.66% and volume z-score of 2.63 warrant a reversal test.",
"The Fed raised rates, headline PCE inflation is 3.4%, and real PCE rose 0.6%, giving the selloff fundamental support.",
"October 2 employment is a possible reversal catalyst only if it surprises toward weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 3.03% extends prior active weakness of 6.11%.",
"Drawdown is 10.92% and quality score is 0.336; volume z-score of 0.16 gives little capitulation evidence.",
"Dollar strength is a headwind to currency-sensitive resource exposure, with no supplied local catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss of 4.82% extends prior active loss of 7.52%, the weakest prior relative rank in the quality table.",
"Drawdown is 13.61% and volume z-score is -0.46, offering no clear exhaustion signal.",
"China manufacturing PMI of 50.1 is mildly supportive, but medium and small enterprises remain below 50."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BROAD_COMMODITIES": 35,
"OIL": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active dispersion of 1.34% accompanies weak breadth, dollar strength and a material duration selloff. Recent Fed and ECB hikes provide a fundamental explanation for much of the weakness, rather than a blanket reversal signal. Commodity pullbacks have modest independent support from resilient consumption and tight projected distillate supplies. Employment, ISM and energy releases can change that assessment within the scoring window; confidence in any one-week edge is limited.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Oil and broad commodities have modest qualifying reversal cases supported by demand and inventory evidence, rather than trailing strength alone. Their overlapping energy sensitivity reduces diversification. High-yield credit ranks third for relative resilience but does not have sufficient evidence to classify its decline as overreaction. Silver receives a fair overshoot assessment without reaching the eligibility threshold; the other selloffs lack compelling temporary-dislocation evidence.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active dispersion of 1.34% accompanies weak breadth, dollar strength and a material duration selloff. Recent Fed and ECB hikes provide a fundamental explanation for much of the weakness, rather than a blanket reversal signal. Commodity pullbacks have modest independent support from resilient consumption and tight projected distillate supplies. Employment, ISM and energy releases can change that assessment within the scoring window; confidence in any one-week edge is limited.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15780,
"latency_seconds": 69.012305568991,
"output_tokens": 3375,
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}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks assigned to candidates showing overreaction with >=55% p_beat_spy; remaining slots default to SPY per rule.
Recent commodity and EM pullbacks amid stable PCE and labor data point to short-term reversal potential in select shock_reversal names over the one-week window.
{
"confidence": 0.585,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 2 employment data surprise",
"FOMC tone shift on rates",
"commodity inventory revisions",
"EM currency volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 2.27%",
"volume z 0.20",
"quality evidence score 0.107"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 1.94%",
"prior active 7.70%",
"quality evidence score 0.509"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -1.46%",
"prior active 10.97%",
"quality evidence score 0.693"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 37,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 6.01",
"recent active -0.46%",
"quality evidence score 0.635"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -2.66%",
"volume z 2.63",
"quality evidence score 0.658"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -0.91%",
"prior active 4.80%",
"quality evidence score 0.705"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 0.00%",
"volume z -0.01"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -2.11%",
"quality evidence score 0.710"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active 0.23%",
"quality evidence score 0.554"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 4.03",
"recent active -0.11%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -2.50%",
"quality evidence score 0.422"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -5.60%",
"quality evidence score 0.456"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -4.82%",
"quality evidence score 0.316"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -3.03%",
"quality evidence score 0.336"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BIOTECH": 35,
"OIL": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"OIL"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "reversal",
"market_rationale": "Recent commodity and EM pullbacks amid stable PCE and labor data point to short-term reversal potential in select shock_reversal names over the one-week window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"BIOTECH",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks assigned to candidates showing overreaction with >=55% p_beat_spy; remaining slots default to SPY per rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Recent commodity and EM pullbacks amid stable PCE and labor data point to short-term reversal potential in select shock_reversal names over the one-week window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"output_tokens": 1987,
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}
}xai-grok-4-5
Low-dispersion mixed tape after SPY dip favors limited oversold reversals in long duration and high-quality pullbacks over chasing semis or crypto; only three names clear overreaction-plus-55% bar, so residual weight stays in SPY per rule.
Low cross-sectional dispersion and weak breadth after a mild SPY pullback; sticky inflation, recent Fed hike, and elevated long yields favor selective mean-reversion in oversold rate-sensitive and commodity names over broad continuation into the data-heavy week.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hotter-than-expected Sept employment or ISM could push yields higher and extend TLT/silver weakness",
"Continued USD strength or risk-off into FOMC blackout window may cap commodity and EM rebounds",
"High-beta tech/robotics fail to stabilize if mega-cap leadership narrows further",
"Oil inventory build or demand scare could reverse commodity mean-reversion"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"TLT recent active -2.66% with volume z 2.63 and quality score 0.658",
"30y yield at 5.64% after Sept 25bp hike; long duration oversold vs shallow SPY drawdown",
"High recent pullback rank 0.955 supports bounce potential into labor/ISM week"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV -6.24% weekly with extreme recent pullback rank 1.000 and -48% from 52w high",
"High vol 41% but shock_reversal lane after multi-session selloff",
"Industrial/precious mix can snap back if dollar stabilizes short-term"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ARKQ quality evidence score 0.710 highest in slate with deep recent pullback rank 0.866",
"Prior active still positive while recent -2.11% active",
"Beta 2.19 offers catch-up if growth/tech stabilizes post-SPY dip"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +10.97% and quality score 0.693; recent mild -1.46% active pullback",
"Crude inventories up only modestly; EIA distillate tightness forecast",
"Negative SPY corr offers diversifier if equity soft"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XME -4.40% with prior active -7.52% and max DD -13.61%; pullback rank 0.985",
"China PMI back above 50 may stabilize metals demand narrative",
"High beta 1.92 to any risk rebound"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XBI +1.71% recent and +2.27% active while SPY negative",
"Low SPY corr 0.33 provides idiosyncratic edge",
"Short-continuation lane after prior weakness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"PDBC quality 0.705 with prior active +4.80% and mild recent pullback",
"Negative SPY corr -0.48",
"Commodity complex oversold relative to medium strength"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EWW -3.07% recent, pullback rank 0.940",
"Beta <1 limits downside vs high-vol EM peers",
"Shock_reversal after multi-week underperformance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EZA -3.76% with pullback rank 0.970 and deep prior weakness",
"Resource-linked EM can bounce with metals",
"High vol but extreme oversold vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMH +0.40% and +1.94% active; prior active +7.70%",
"Strong medium-strength lane despite high beta 2.39",
"Still -9% from 52w high leaving room but vol elevated"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"HYG volume z 6.01 extreme dislocation but low vol 3.83%",
"Mild underperformance vs SPY; credit spreads stable",
"Defensive carry less likely to strongly beat equities in one week"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ETHA prior active +7.61% but recent flat-to-down and -44% from high",
"Vol 47% and low SPY corr; crypto risk-off possible into data",
"Medium strength faded without fresh catalyst in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLU volume z 4.03 but quality score only 0.197 and -15.65% from high",
"Near-flat vs SPY; rate-sensitive after yield rise",
"Defensive bid limited by still-elevated long rates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with -1.13% weekly return and low dispersion environment",
"Upcoming ISM and employment data dominate near-term path",
"Breadth weak; equal-weight lagging"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS": 30,
"LONG_TREASURY": 35,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"LONG_TREASURY",
"SILVER",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Low cross-sectional dispersion and weak breadth after a mild SPY pullback; sticky inflation, recent Fed hike, and elevated long yields favor selective mean-reversion in oversold rate-sensitive and commodity names over broad continuation into the data-heavy week.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LONG_TREASURY",
"SILVER",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Low-dispersion mixed tape after SPY dip favors limited oversold reversals in long duration and high-quality pullbacks over chasing semis or crypto; only three names clear overreaction-plus-55% bar, so residual weight stays in SPY per rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Low cross-sectional dispersion and weak breadth after a mild SPY pullback; sticky inflation, recent Fed hike, and elevated long yields favor selective mean-reversion in oversold rate-sensitive and commodity names over broad continuation into the data-heavy week.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17020,
"latency_seconds": 44.82100557399099,
"output_tokens": 3013,
"reasoning_tokens": 363,
"total_tokens": 20396
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Low cross-asset dispersion, hawkish yields, and an in-window jobs print favor staying with SPY. Semis have the only clean medium-horizon relative-strength continuation, and HYG is a low-vol volume-dislocation ballast; shock names fail a 55% beat-SPY bar even where recent drops look like overreaction.
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.34% with a 13% positive-asset share, SPY is 1.72% from its 52-week high, and equal-weight lagged cap-weight. A fresh 25 bp hike, 10y/30y yields at 5.29%/5.64%, and in-window ISM/payrolls favor concentrated large-cap beta over high-vol shock names.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"October 2 Employment Situation and October 1 ISM Manufacturing can reprice duration and growth beta inside the week.",
"A further backup in 10y/30y yields after the September hike would pressure TLT, utilities, and high-beta cyclicals.",
"Oil inventory and EIA STEO prints on Oct 6–7 can extend USO volatility given 47% horizon vol.",
"Silver and mining remain highly sensitive to USD strength (UUP 21s +2.31%)."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 3-session return -1.13% with 21s vol 10.81% and max drawdown -2.47%.",
"Distance to 52-week high is only -1.72% versus much larger gaps for most slate names.",
"RSP minus SPY is -0.88% over 5 sessions and -4.50% over 21 sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return +7.70% with recent active +1.94% and 3-session return +0.40%.",
"Quality evidence prior-active rank 0.985 but recent-pullback rank 0.015 and 21s vol 31.23%.",
"Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% on Sep 30 while the S&P 500 fell 0.3%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 6.01 with 21s vol only 3.83% and max drawdown -2.73%.",
"Recent return -0.83% and active 5s -0.46% with SPY beta 0.21.",
"Quality evidence score 0.635 with low-vol rank 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return +1.71% and active 5s +2.27% after prior 16s active -4.84%.",
"SPY corr 0.33 and beta 0.87 with 21s vol 24.48%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.107 is the lowest on the slate."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.705 with prior-active rank 0.925 and recent pullback rank 0.642.",
"SPY corr -0.48 and beta -0.93; 3-session return -1.03%.",
"Distance to 52-week high only -3.98%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +10.97% then recent active -1.46% with 21s vol 47.24%.",
"Commercial crude inventories rose 0.922 million barrels in the week ended Sep 25.",
"EIA weekly petroleum report is scheduled Oct 7 inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.710 is the highest on the slate with recent-pullback rank 0.866.",
"3-session return -2.55%, SPY beta 2.19, corr 0.81.",
"21s vol 22.24% and 52w-high distance -15.69%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Fed raised the funds range 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00% on Sep 16; 10y/30y par yields were 5.29%/5.64% at the Sep 30 close.",
"TLT 5s return -3.33% and 21s -5.38% with volume z 2.63.",
"Quality evidence score 0.658 with recent-pullback rank 0.955."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 4.03 with 3-session return -0.18% and SPY corr 0.04.",
"Prior 16s active -5.52% and 52w-high distance -15.65%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.197 with prior-active rank 0.075."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16s active +7.61% but 3-session return -0.94% and 52w-high distance -43.78%.",
"21s vol 46.84% with volume z -0.68.",
"Quality evidence prior-active rank 0.970."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return -3.07% and active 5s -2.50% after prior 16s active -4.65%.",
"Recent-pullback rank 0.940; 21s vol 16.98% and beta 0.88.",
"Quality evidence score 0.422."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return -3.76% and active 5s -3.03% after prior 16s active -6.11%.",
"Recent-pullback rank 0.970 but prior-active rank 0.030 and 21s vol 26.23%.",
"Max drawdown 21s -10.92% and 52w-high distance -19.93%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior-active rank 0.000 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.000 with 21s max drawdown -13.61%.",
"3-session return -4.40% and prior 16s active -7.52% with beta 1.92.",
"Quality evidence score 0.316."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3-session return -6.24% is the largest slate drop; recent-pullback rank 1.000.",
"21s vol 41.18%, beta 1.68, 52w-high distance -48.38%.",
"IAU 5s return -3.01% and 21s -6.70% alongside a stronger USD 5s +0.42%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"METALS_MINING",
"SOUTH_AFRICA",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"MEXICO",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BIOTECH",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"UTILITIES",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BIOTECH",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BROAD_COMMODITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MEXICO",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOUTH_AFRICA",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "low",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.34% with a 13% positive-asset share, SPY is 1.72% from its 52-week high, and equal-weight lagged cap-weight. A fresh 25 bp hike, 10y/30y yields at 5.29%/5.64%, and in-window ISM/payrolls favor concentrated large-cap beta over high-vol shock names.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Low cross-asset dispersion, hawkish yields, and an in-window jobs print favor staying with SPY. Semis have the only clean medium-horizon relative-strength continuation, and HYG is a low-vol volume-dislocation ballast; shock names fail a 55% beat-SPY bar even where recent drops look like overreaction.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.34% with a 13% positive-asset share, SPY is 1.72% from its 52-week high, and equal-weight lagged cap-weight. A fresh 25 bp hike, 10y/30y yields at 5.29%/5.64%, and in-window ISM/payrolls favor concentrated large-cap beta over high-vol shock names.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-10-01-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17162,
"latency_seconds": 38.34050045002368,
"output_tokens": 2916,
"reasoning_tokens": 527,
"total_tokens": 20605
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Silver (SLV)35%Metals and Mining (XME)35%South Africa Equities (EZA)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%Broad Commodities (PDBC)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Biotechnology (XBI)35%Crude Oil (USO)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)35%Silver (SLV)35%Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
| Aerospace and Defense (ITA) | ITA | 2026-09-30 | 207.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds (MBB) | MBB | 2026-09-30 | 89.62 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Agriculture Commodities (DBA) | DBA | 2026-09-30 | 28.14 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Australia Equities (EWA) | EWA | 2026-09-30 | 28.31 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Autonomous Technology and Robotics (ARKQ) | ARKQ | 2026-09-30 | 121.25 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Biotechnology (XBI) | XBI | 2026-09-30 | 157.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) | IBIT | 2026-09-30 | 47.34 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Brazil Equities (EWZ) | EWZ | 2026-09-30 | 37.25 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Broad AI Technology (AIQ) | AIQ | 2026-09-30 | 65.16 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Broad Commodities (PDBC) | PDBC | 2026-09-30 | 19.30 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Canada Equities (EWC) | EWC | 2026-09-30 | 58.38 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Cash / Do Not Invest | 2026-09-30 | 1.00 | cash | |
| China Equities (MCHI) | MCHI | 2026-09-30 | 52.19 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Communication Services Sector (XLC) | XLC | 2026-09-30 | 110.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) | XLY | 2026-09-30 | 108.84 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Consumer Staples Sector (XLP) | XLP | 2026-09-30 | 80.60 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Copper (CPER) | CPER | 2026-09-30 | 39.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Crude Oil (USO) | USO | 2026-09-30 | 145.66 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Cybersecurity (CIBR) | CIBR | 2026-09-30 | 103.09 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Developed Markets ex-US (VEA) | VEA | 2026-09-30 | 70.61 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Emerging Market USD Bonds (EMB) | EMB | 2026-09-30 | 90.84 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Emerging Markets (VWO) | VWO | 2026-09-30 | 59.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Energy Sector (XLE) | XLE | 2026-09-30 | 61.50 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP) | RSP | 2026-09-30 | 208.02 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Ethereum ETF (ETHA) | ETHA | 2026-09-30 | 20.12 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Euro (FXE) | FXE | 2026-09-30 | 104.55 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Europe Equities (VGK) | VGK | 2026-09-30 | 86.80 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Financials Sector (XLF) | XLF | 2026-09-30 | 53.40 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Gold (IAU) | IAU | 2026-09-30 | 78.10 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Healthcare Sector (XLV) | XLV | 2026-09-30 | 168.42 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG) | HYG | 2026-09-30 | 77.21 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| India Equities (INDA) | INDA | 2026-09-30 | 46.68 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Industrials Sector (XLI) | XLI | 2026-09-30 | 166.98 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF) | IEF | 2026-09-30 | 89.31 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| International Aggregate Bonds (BNDX) | BNDX | 2026-09-30 | 46.87 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD) | LQD | 2026-09-30 | 102.18 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japan Equities (EWJ) | EWJ | 2026-09-30 | 97.46 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Japanese Yen (FXY) | FXY | 2026-09-30 | 58.24 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT) | TLT | 2026-09-30 | 77.78 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Materials Sector (XLB) | XLB | 2026-09-30 | 48.70 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Metals and Mining (XME) | XME | 2026-09-30 | 103.56 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Mexico Equities (EWW) | EWW | 2026-09-30 | 71.09 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Municipal Bonds (MUB) | MUB | 2026-09-30 | 101.10 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | QQQ | 2026-09-30 | 739.77 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Real Estate Sector (XLRE) | XLRE | 2026-09-30 | 40.91 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Regional Banks (KRE) | KRE | 2026-09-30 | 69.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | SPY | 2026-09-30 | 762.63 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Semiconductors (SMH) | SMH | 2026-09-30 | 609.00 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) | BIL | 2026-09-30 | 91.64 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Silver (SLV) | SLV | 2026-09-30 | 54.51 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Software (IGV) | IGV | 2026-09-30 | 106.48 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Solar Energy (TAN) | TAN | 2026-09-30 | 43.97 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| South Africa Equities (EZA) | EZA | 2026-09-30 | 63.98 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| South Korea Equities (EWY) | EWY | 2026-09-30 | 182.78 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Taiwan Equities (EWT) | EWT | 2026-09-30 | 112.90 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| Technology Sector (XLK) | XLK | 2026-09-30 | 195.75 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Total US Stock Market (VTI) | VTI | 2026-09-30 | 374.24 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP) | TIP | 2026-09-30 | 104.04 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| United Kingdom Equities (EWU) | EWU | 2026-09-30 | 46.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG) | AGG | 2026-09-30 | 94.54 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dividend Equities (SCHD) | SCHD | 2026-09-30 | 32.53 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Dollar (UUP) | UUP | 2026-09-30 | 28.77 | Yahoo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Growth (IWF) | IWF | 2026-09-30 | 125.26 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Large-Cap Value (IWD) | IWD | 2026-09-30 | 247.93 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV) | SPLV | 2026-09-30 | 70.51 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH) | IJH | 2026-09-30 | 71.95 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Momentum Equities (MTUM) | MTUM | 2026-09-30 | 317.34 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM) | IWM | 2026-09-30 | 277.89 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| US Small-Cap Value (IWN) | IWN | 2026-09-30 | 209.45 | Tiingo adjusted close |
| Utilities Sector (XLU) | XLU | 2026-09-30 | 39.44 | Tiingo adjusted close |
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 353179510459...abdbff76 |
| manifest.yaml | 55cb806181f7...46353441 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 29a51688c113...430e9e12 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 53b51b3437f2...f57da040 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 637f51619c5f...59a64de1 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | ccbfea40f34c...bda5b828 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 0614c030708f...d1827a21 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 614620e0a781...8fd465f8 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |