5 valid allocations
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
Test proof files
CB-2026-05-28-1W
One-week CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored Thursday-to-Thursday from the May 28, 2026 adjusted close to the June 4, 2026 adjusted close.
Test CB-2026-05-28-1W pending
Picks Saved By 2026-05-28
Start Date 2026-05-28
End Date 2026-06-04
Run ID official-20260528-1W
- 1 Inputs saved
7 public proof hashes are available.
- 2 Portfolios collected
5 valid model allocations.
- 3 Start priced
65 starting-price rows published.
- 4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-06-04 prices are available.
Test state
Pending Score Pending
This test has saved inputs and model portfolios. The scoreboard remains unavailable until ending prices are collected.
65 saved choices
v2.0 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Ending prices pending
Asset return, portfolio return, S&P 500 return, return versus S&P 500, and regret publish after scoring.
Input proof hashes
7 artifacts published.
Public run selected
official-20260528-1W
Model-facing prompt available
51,025 shared prompt characters.
Ending prices pending
Scoreboard rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Interim tracking
Weekly Performance Vs S&P 500
Once at least one week of prices exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the test start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
Weekly chart pending
At least one weekly price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
Saved model-facing context
Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 51,025 characters
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
This is a short-horizon weekly round. The scoring window is Thursday-to-Thursday:
- The entry price is the adjusted close from Thursday, May 28, 2026.
- The decision deadline is Thursday, May 28, 2026 at 18:00 America/Toronto / 22:00 UTC.
- The exit price is the adjusted close on Thursday, June 4, 2026, calculated only after regular U.S. trading ends that Thursday.
- The official score is based only on price movement from the May 28 adjusted close to the June 4 adjusted close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over the May 28 close to June 4 close scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the Thursday, June 4 exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
When reasoning, prioritize facts that can plausibly affect prices before the Thursday, June 4 close: scheduled releases inside the window, known event dates, earnings or policy events inside the window, very near-term momentum, positioning, liquidity, and risks that could hit before the exit close. Use events after the June 4 close only if markets could price them before that close.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-05-28-1W
- Decision date: 2026-05-28
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-05-28T20:25:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-05-28T22:00:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-05-28
- Exit date: 2026-06-04
- Scoring window: 2026-05-28 to 2026-06-04; optimize for this one week window only.
- Close-to-close scoring: the entry price is the adjusted close on the entry date, and the exit price is the adjusted close on the exit date after regular trading ends.
- Timeline focus: prioritize facts, catalysts, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before the exit close.
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close on Thursday, May 28, 2026 for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close on Thursday, June 4, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Submission format: portfolio
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
- Portfolio holdings allowed: 1-5
- Portfolio allocation increment: 5%
- Portfolio minimum allocation: 5%
- Portfolio total allocation: 100%
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Briefing
## 1. Fact-Only Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.
## 2. Full-Universe Trailing Returns
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-05-28 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-28 | 0.07% | 0.30% | 1.77% | 3.90% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.60% | 6.03% | 11.05% | 29.86% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.80% | 6.00% | 11.17% | 30.04% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 2.95% | 11.87% | 19.09% | 42.44% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 1.96% | 6.76% | 6.92% | 28.13% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 1.42% | 4.82% | 14.34% | 28.98% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-28 | 2.13% | 3.25% | 13.04% | 25.52% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-28 | 3.38% | 6.62% | 18.00% | 43.63% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 2.66% | 4.11% | 19.19% | 45.25% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.18% | 4.22% | 20.49% | 30.15% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | -1.04% | -1.41% | 0.77% | 2.55% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | 4.13% | 13.92% | 26.19% | 37.83% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 4.63% | 18.38% | 30.94% | 62.55% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 0.49% | 0.79% | 1.76% | 16.03% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 2.83% | 4.32% | 3.65% | 14.51% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.27% | 1.62% | 7.83% | 6.10% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 1.84% | 4.89% | -3.49% | 16.80% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.89% | -1.12% | -3.03% | 2.91% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 1.92% | 1.65% | 13.79% | 23.52% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -3.72% | -1.35% | 27.78% | 43.93% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 2.68% | -0.08% | 16.01% | 21.77% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.84% | -3.52% | -0.10% | 13.97% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.20% | 1.14% | 8.46% | 11.24% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.79% | -0.42% | -1.18% | 4.60% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 1.80% | -0.36% | -2.82% | 5.00% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.73% | 0.01% | 1.04% | 5.28% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-28 | 1.01% | 0.32% | -0.07% | 6.83% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-28 | 0.38% | 0.27% | 1.96% | 7.10% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.67% | -0.07% | 0.15% | 5.61% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.37% | 5.80% | 18.56% | 33.71% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 2.04% | 2.71% | 12.48% | 30.06% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 0.30% | 3.33% | 10.75% | 20.38% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.46% | 5.87% | 15.85% | 31.70% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | -1.73% | -3.12% | -10.51% | 5.40% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.37% | -1.10% | -11.00% | -10.31% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -0.98% | -2.16% | 6.52% | 36.06% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -3.22% | -1.94% | 33.88% | 44.94% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 5.63% | 22.11% | 70.80% | 148.27% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 3.46% | 12.56% | -8.08% | -7.18% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.73% | 3.73% | 9.63% | 20.26% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-28 | 2.42% | 3.68% | 10.78% | 73.28% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-28 | 0.49% | -1.17% | 11.75% | 25.55% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-28 | 5.57% | 8.95% | 14.93% | 34.94% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 0.00% | 1.95% | 12.15% | 32.93% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -0.72% | 0.97% | 11.03% | 23.24% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -0.07% | -0.34% | 13.99% | 17.04% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 10.70% | 33.68% | 132.19% | 247.32% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 8.33% | 17.31% | 65.93% | 100.98% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -2.43% | -9.02% | 11.20% | 37.49% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.30% | 3.32% | 17.40% | 34.27% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 2.12% | 1.81% | 10.16% | 42.99% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.86% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 7.34% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.90% | 0.02% | 1.23% | 6.37% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-28 | 1.31% | 0.72% | 2.04% | 12.18% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.58% | 0.78% | 0.26% | 2.29% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -1.57% | 3.26% | 33.49% | 128.02% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-28 | 1.24% | 7.78% | 21.00% | 33.72% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -0.11% | -1.36% | 8.16% | 6.94% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -8.25% | -6.32% | 84.02% | 92.64% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-28 | -0.11% | 0.62% | 1.55% | 3.75% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-28 | 0.25% | -0.45% | 0.75% | 3.90% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-28 | -0.21% | 0.26% | -2.16% | -9.38% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-28 | -5.55% | -3.95% | -19.38% | -31.63% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-28 | -5.94% | -12.55% | -33.81% | -23.44% | pass |
## 3. Macro Snapshot
### Core Macro Table
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
|---|---|---:|---|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 0.6% | 0.9% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 3.8% | 3.3% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 0.4% | 0.2% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 2.8% | 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | PCE price index | 0.4% | 0.7% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index | 3.8% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 0.2% | 0.3% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.3% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 1.4% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 6.0% | not source-reported | not source-reported | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| labor | unemployment rate | 4.3% | unchanged at 4.3% | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | nonfarm payroll employment | +115,000 jobs | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +0.2% | same pace as the prior month | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +3.6% | 3.4% in March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims | 215,000 | increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level | week-over-week change | week ending May 23, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims |
| growth | real GDP | +1.6% annual rate | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate | revision | Q1 2026 second estimate | May 28, 2026 | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| growth | retail and food services sales | $757.1 billion | up 0.5% from previous month and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 14, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| growth | current-dollar personal consumption expenditures | +0.5% | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| growth | industrial production | +0.7% | -0.3% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Federal Reserve G.17 |
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | same reading as March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 1, 2026 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| business surveys | ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.0 in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 5, 2026 | ISM Services PMI |
| consumer | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior month and year-over-year comparison | May 2026 final | May 22, 2026 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer | Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | 93.1 | slipped 0.7 points from April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | May 26, 2026 | AP / The Conference Board |
| housing | housing starts and building permits | starts 1,465,000 SAAR; permits 1,442,000 SAAR | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | existing-home sales | 4.02 million SAAR | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 11, 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
### Rates, Fed, Credit, Liquidity, Volatility
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
|---|---|---:|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve policy | federal funds target range | 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | current target range | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve Economy at a Glance |
| Federal Reserve policy | latest FOMC decision | maintain target range at 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 FOMC meeting | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | next scheduled FOMC meeting | June 16-17, 2026 | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 FOMC calendar | latest calendar page | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| Federal Reserve policy | June 17, 2026 target-rate probability for 3.50% to 3.75% | 99.9% | 97.9% previous week | prior value | updated May 28, 2026 2:55 PM EDT | May 28, 2026 | Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor Tool |
| Treasury yields | 3-month Treasury par yield | 3.68% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 2-year Treasury par yield | 4.00% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 10-year Treasury par yield | 4.48% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 30-year Treasury par yield | 5.01% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| real rates | 10-year Treasury real yield | 2.09% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| inflation expectations | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.39% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED T10YIE |
| volatility | CBOE Volatility Index | 16.29 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED VIXCLS |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread | 0.74% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread | 2.71% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| financial conditions | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | -0.510 | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | FRED NFCI |
| liquidity | total money market fund assets | $7.77 trillion | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| housing rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.53% | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | AP / Freddie Mac PMMS |
### Commodity And Currency State
| measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source |
|---|---:|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude futures | $107.77 per barrel | down $0.89, or 0.82% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 10:11 AM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| Brent crude futures | $104.84 per barrel | down $6.44, or 5.79% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| natural gas futures | $3.05 per MMBtu | down $0.07, or 2.12% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| gold futures | $4,548.40 per t oz | up $37.20, or 0.82% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| silver futures | $76.60 per t oz | up $1.44, or 1.92% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| copper futures | 634.45 USd/lb | up 13.80, or 2.22% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index | 357.81 | down 6.92, or 1.90% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:19 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
## 4. Asset-Group Context
| asset_group | covered_options_or_area | fact_type | factual_statement | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | date_or_period | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | federal funds and Treasury bills | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | money-market funds | observed_value | Total money market fund assets were $7.78 trillion. | increased by $13.39 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 27, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| bonds and rates | Treasury curve | observed_value | The 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury par yields were 3.68%, 4.00%, 4.48%, and 5.01%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| bonds and rates | TIPS | observed_value | The 10-year Treasury real yield was 2.09%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| bonds and rates | mortgages and MBS reference rates | observed_value | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53%. | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | AP / Freddie Mac PMMS |
| credit | investment-grade credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread was 0.74%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit | high-yield credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 2.71%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| broad US equities | corporate profits | observed_value | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026. | $246.9 billion increase in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| broad US equities | real GDP and domestic demand | observed_value | Real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026. | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate | revision | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| consumer discretionary and consumer staples | consumer spending | observed_value | Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased $111.1 billion, or 0.5%. | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| consumer discretionary and consumer staples | retail sales | observed_value | U.S. retail and food services sales were $757.1 billion. | up 0.5% from the previous month | month-over-month change | April 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| real estate | residential property activity | observed_value | Existing-home sales were 4.02 million SAAR in April 2026. | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
| real estate | housing construction | observed_value | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR and building permits were 1,442,000 SAAR. | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| Nasdaq / growth / technology | software prices | observed_value | The PCE "Computer Software and Accessories" category had a record 73% annualized increase from November 2025 through March 2026. | nearly triple the previous peak in April 2025 | prior value | November 2025 through March 2026 | Federal Reserve FEDS Notes |
| semiconductors | global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion during Q1 2026. | up 25% from Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| semiconductors | monthly global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $99.5 billion during March 2026. | up 79.2% from March 2025 | year-over-year change | March 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| AI/technology themes | AI infrastructure and electricity | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | IEA reported that capital expenditure of five large technology companies was more than $400 billion in 2025 and was set to increase by a further 75% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2025 and 2026 forecast, published April 16, 2026 | IEA Energy and AI |
| AI/technology themes | data-center electricity | observed_value | IEA reported electricity demand from data centers increased 17% in 2025. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2025, published April 16, 2026 | IEA Energy and AI |
| aerospace/defense | defense budget request | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FY2027 U.S. defense budget request was $1.5 trillion, including a $1.15 trillion base request and $350 billion from reconciliation. | administration said FY2027 base budget represented a 28% increase from the FY2026 base budget | year-over-year change | April 2026 | Breaking Defense |
| utilities | electricity demand | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA forecast U.S. electricity demand would rise 1.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| energy/oil | crude oil outlook | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and expected Brent prices around $106 per barrel in May and June. | last month's STEO forecast a 0.3 million barrel per day inventory decrease for 2026 | prior value | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| energy/oil | OPEC supply policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from previous voluntary adjustments. | not source-reported | not source-reported | decision on May 3, 2026; adjustment for June 2026 | OPEC |
| broad commodities | commodity index | observed_value | Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index was quoted at 357.81. | down 6.92, or 1.90% | prior value | May 28, 2026 3:19 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| gold | precious metals | observed_value | Gold futures were quoted at $4,548.40 per t oz. | up $37.20, or 0.82% | prior value | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| silver | precious metals | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | The Silver Institute said the silver market was expected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026. | total global silver supply forecast to increase by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces | consensus / forecast comparison | 2026 forecast, published February 10, 2026 | The Silver Institute |
| copper and materials | copper futures | observed_value | Copper futures were quoted at 634.45 USd/lb. | up 13.80, or 2.22% | prior value | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| agriculture | grains | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | USDA forecast the U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels. | down 6% from a year ago | year-over-year change | 2026/27 marketing year forecast, May 2026 WASDE | USDA WASDE |
| Europe equities | euro area policy and GDP | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The ECB held the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | European Central Bank |
| Europe equities | euro area GDP | observed_value | Euro area GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | Q1 2026 preliminary flash estimate | Eurostat |
| Japan equities | Japan policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 28, 2026 | AP / Bank of Japan |
| China equities | China credit policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | China's one-year LPR was held at 3.0% and the five-year LPR was held at 3.5%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | Trading Economics China Interest Rate |
| China equities | manufacturing PMI | observed_value | China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in April 2026. | down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month | month-over-month change | April 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Canada equities | Canada policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| UK equities | UK policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of England MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 meeting | Bank of England |
## 5. Tension Ledger
| area_or_asset_group | source_reported_fact_1 | source_reported_fact_2 | unresolved_question | source_or_sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.7 in April 2026, the same reading as March 2026 | ISM Services PMI was 53.6 in April 2026, compared with 54.0 in March 2026 | June 1 and June 3 ISM releases | ISM Manufacturing PMI; ISM Services PMI |
| consumer and spending | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 final results | current-dollar PCE increased 0.5% in April 2026 | June 3 ISM Services PMI | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
## 6. Scheduled Calendar
| date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type_or_asset_group | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release; industrials; materials; broad US equities | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release; communication services; consumer sectors; broad US equities | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
## 7. Missing Major Data
| data_area | missing_item | note |
|---|---|---|
| business surveys | May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI | scheduled for June 1 and June 3, 2026 |
## 8. Final Neutrality Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.
CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-week outcome window resolves.
This is a short-horizon weekly round. The scoring window is Thursday-to-Thursday:
- The entry price is the adjusted close from Thursday, May 28, 2026.
- The decision deadline is Thursday, May 28, 2026 at 18:00 America/Toronto / 22:00 UTC.
- The exit price is the adjusted close on Thursday, June 4, 2026, calculated only after regular U.S. trading ends that Thursday.
- The official score is based only on price movement from the May 28 adjusted close to the June 4 adjusted close.
Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over the May 28 close to June 4 close scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the Thursday, June 4 exit close.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-week realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.
Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-week round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.
When reasoning, prioritize facts that can plausibly affect prices before the Thursday, June 4 close: scheduled releases inside the window, known event dates, earnings or policy events inside the window, very near-term momentum, positioning, liquidity, and risks that could hit before the exit close. Use events after the June 4 close only if markets could price them before that close.
You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.
You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
"key_risks": [
"<risk 1>",
"<risk 2>"
]
}
Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-05-28-1W
title: CapitalBench May 28 2026 One-Week Portfolio Round
description: One-week CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored Thursday-to-Thursday from the May 28, 2026 adjusted close to the June 4, 2026 adjusted close.
decision_date: '2026-05-28'
decision_deadline: '2026-05-28T22:00:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.0
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use adjusted close on Thursday, May 28, 2026 for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close on Thursday, June 4, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-05-28'
exit_date: '2026-06-04'
created_at: '2026-05-28T20:14:28.417135+00:00'
notes: Research cutoff is 2026-05-28T20:25:00Z. This is a weekly-track round with a Thursday-to-Thursday scoring window and separate manifest, prompt, model input, hashes, run folder, prices, and resolution job.Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench Briefing
## 1. Fact-Only Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.
## 2. Full-Universe Trailing Returns
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-05-28 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-28 | 0.07% | 0.30% | 1.77% | 3.90% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.60% | 6.03% | 11.05% | 29.86% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.80% | 6.00% | 11.17% | 30.04% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 2.95% | 11.87% | 19.09% | 42.44% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 1.96% | 6.76% | 6.92% | 28.13% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 1.42% | 4.82% | 14.34% | 28.98% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-28 | 2.13% | 3.25% | 13.04% | 25.52% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-28 | 3.38% | 6.62% | 18.00% | 43.63% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 2.66% | 4.11% | 19.19% | 45.25% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.18% | 4.22% | 20.49% | 30.15% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | -1.04% | -1.41% | 0.77% | 2.55% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | 4.13% | 13.92% | 26.19% | 37.83% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 4.63% | 18.38% | 30.94% | 62.55% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 0.49% | 0.79% | 1.76% | 16.03% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 2.83% | 4.32% | 3.65% | 14.51% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.27% | 1.62% | 7.83% | 6.10% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 1.84% | 4.89% | -3.49% | 16.80% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.89% | -1.12% | -3.03% | 2.91% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 1.92% | 1.65% | 13.79% | 23.52% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -3.72% | -1.35% | 27.78% | 43.93% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 2.68% | -0.08% | 16.01% | 21.77% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.84% | -3.52% | -0.10% | 13.97% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.20% | 1.14% | 8.46% | 11.24% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.79% | -0.42% | -1.18% | 4.60% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 1.80% | -0.36% | -2.82% | 5.00% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.73% | 0.01% | 1.04% | 5.28% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-28 | 1.01% | 0.32% | -0.07% | 6.83% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-28 | 0.38% | 0.27% | 1.96% | 7.10% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.67% | -0.07% | 0.15% | 5.61% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.37% | 5.80% | 18.56% | 33.71% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 2.04% | 2.71% | 12.48% | 30.06% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 0.30% | 3.33% | 10.75% | 20.38% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.46% | 5.87% | 15.85% | 31.70% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | -1.73% | -3.12% | -10.51% | 5.40% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.37% | -1.10% | -11.00% | -10.31% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -0.98% | -2.16% | 6.52% | 36.06% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -3.22% | -1.94% | 33.88% | 44.94% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 5.63% | 22.11% | 70.80% | 148.27% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 3.46% | 12.56% | -8.08% | -7.18% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.73% | 3.73% | 9.63% | 20.26% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-28 | 2.42% | 3.68% | 10.78% | 73.28% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-28 | 0.49% | -1.17% | 11.75% | 25.55% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-28 | 5.57% | 8.95% | 14.93% | 34.94% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 0.00% | 1.95% | 12.15% | 32.93% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -0.72% | 0.97% | 11.03% | 23.24% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -0.07% | -0.34% | 13.99% | 17.04% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 10.70% | 33.68% | 132.19% | 247.32% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 8.33% | 17.31% | 65.93% | 100.98% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -2.43% | -9.02% | 11.20% | 37.49% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.30% | 3.32% | 17.40% | 34.27% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 2.12% | 1.81% | 10.16% | 42.99% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.86% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 7.34% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.90% | 0.02% | 1.23% | 6.37% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-28 | 1.31% | 0.72% | 2.04% | 12.18% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.58% | 0.78% | 0.26% | 2.29% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -1.57% | 3.26% | 33.49% | 128.02% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-28 | 1.24% | 7.78% | 21.00% | 33.72% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -0.11% | -1.36% | 8.16% | 6.94% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -8.25% | -6.32% | 84.02% | 92.64% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-28 | -0.11% | 0.62% | 1.55% | 3.75% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-28 | 0.25% | -0.45% | 0.75% | 3.90% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-28 | -0.21% | 0.26% | -2.16% | -9.38% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-28 | -5.55% | -3.95% | -19.38% | -31.63% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-28 | -5.94% | -12.55% | -33.81% | -23.44% | pass |
## 3. Macro Snapshot
### Core Macro Table
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
|---|---|---:|---|---|---|---|---|
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 0.6% | 0.9% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items | 3.8% | 3.3% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 0.4% | 0.2% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | CPI-U, all items less food and energy | 2.8% | 2.6% for the 12 months ending March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 12, 2026 | BLS CPI News Release |
| inflation | PCE price index | 0.4% | 0.7% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index | 3.8% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 0.2% | 0.3% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | PCE price index excluding food and energy | 3.3% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 from same month one year ago | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 1.4% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| inflation | Producer Price Index for final demand | 6.0% | not source-reported | not source-reported | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 13, 2026 | BLS Producer Price Index |
| labor | unemployment rate | 4.3% | unchanged at 4.3% | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | nonfarm payroll employment | +115,000 jobs | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +0.2% | same pace as the prior month | prior value | April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls | +3.6% | 3.4% in March 2026 | prior value | 12 months ending April 2026 | May 8, 2026 | BLS Employment Situation |
| labor | seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims | 215,000 | increase of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level | week-over-week change | week ending May 23, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims |
| growth | real GDP | +1.6% annual rate | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate | revision | Q1 2026 second estimate | May 28, 2026 | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| growth | retail and food services sales | $757.1 billion | up 0.5% from previous month and up 4.9% from April 2025 | month-over-month and year-over-year change | April 2026 | May 14, 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| growth | current-dollar personal consumption expenditures | +0.5% | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 28, 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| growth | industrial production | +0.7% | -0.3% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 15, 2026 | Federal Reserve G.17 |
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 52.7 | same reading as March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 1, 2026 | ISM Manufacturing PMI |
| business surveys | ISM Services PMI | 53.6 | 54.0 in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | May 5, 2026 | ISM Services PMI |
| consumer | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment | 44.8 | 49.8 in April 2026 and 52.2 in May 2025 | prior month and year-over-year comparison | May 2026 final | May 22, 2026 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers |
| consumer | Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index | 93.1 | slipped 0.7 points from April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | May 26, 2026 | AP / The Conference Board |
| housing | housing starts and building permits | starts 1,465,000 SAAR; permits 1,442,000 SAAR | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| housing | existing-home sales | 4.02 million SAAR | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | May 11, 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
### Rates, Fed, Credit, Liquidity, Volatility
| data_area | measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source |
|---|---|---:|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Reserve policy | federal funds target range | 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | current target range | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve Economy at a Glance |
| Federal Reserve policy | latest FOMC decision | maintain target range at 3.50% to 3.75% | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 2026 FOMC meeting | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| Federal Reserve policy | next scheduled FOMC meeting | June 16-17, 2026 | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2026 FOMC calendar | latest calendar page | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar |
| Federal Reserve policy | June 17, 2026 target-rate probability for 3.50% to 3.75% | 99.9% | 97.9% previous week | prior value | updated May 28, 2026 2:55 PM EDT | May 28, 2026 | Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor Tool |
| Treasury yields | 3-month Treasury par yield | 3.68% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 2-year Treasury par yield | 4.00% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 10-year Treasury par yield | 4.48% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| Treasury yields | 30-year Treasury par yield | 5.01% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| real rates | 10-year Treasury real yield | 2.09% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| inflation expectations | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.39% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED T10YIE |
| volatility | CBOE Volatility Index | 16.29 | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED VIXCLS |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread | 0.74% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit spreads | ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread | 2.71% | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| financial conditions | Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index | -0.510 | not source-reported | not source-reported | week ending May 22, 2026 | May 22, 2026 | FRED NFCI |
| liquidity | total money market fund assets | $7.77 trillion | increased by $16.88 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 20, 2026 | May 21, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| housing rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.53% | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | May 28, 2026 | AP / Freddie Mac PMMS |
### Commodity And Currency State
| measure | latest_value | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source |
|---|---:|---|---|---|---|
| WTI crude futures | $107.77 per barrel | down $0.89, or 0.82% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 10:11 AM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| Brent crude futures | $104.84 per barrel | down $6.44, or 5.79% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| natural gas futures | $3.05 per MMBtu | down $0.07, or 2.12% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| gold futures | $4,548.40 per t oz | up $37.20, or 0.82% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| silver futures | $76.60 per t oz | up $1.44, or 1.92% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| copper futures | 634.45 USd/lb | up 13.80, or 2.22% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index | 357.81 | down 6.92, or 1.90% | source-reported change | May 28, 2026 3:19 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
## 4. Asset-Group Context
| asset_group | covered_options_or_area | fact_type | factual_statement | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | date_or_period | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | federal funds and Treasury bills | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement |
| cash and short-duration Treasuries | money-market funds | observed_value | Total money market fund assets were $7.78 trillion. | increased by $13.39 billion | week-over-week change | week ending May 27, 2026 | Investment Company Institute |
| bonds and rates | Treasury curve | observed_value | The 3-month, 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury par yields were 3.68%, 4.00%, 4.48%, and 5.01%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Rates |
| bonds and rates | TIPS | observed_value | The 10-year Treasury real yield was 2.09%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | U.S. Treasury Daily Treasury Real Yield Curve Rates |
| bonds and rates | mortgages and MBS reference rates | observed_value | The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was 6.53%. | 6.51% previous week | prior value | week ending May 28, 2026 | AP / Freddie Mac PMMS |
| credit | investment-grade credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US Corporate Index option-adjusted spread was 0.74%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLC0A0CM |
| credit | high-yield credit | observed_value | The ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread was 2.71%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 27, 2026 | FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 |
| broad US equities | corporate profits | observed_value | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026. | $246.9 billion increase in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| broad US equities | real GDP and domestic demand | observed_value | Real GDP increased at a 1.6% annual rate in Q1 2026. | revised down 0.4 percentage point from the advance estimate | revision | Q1 2026 second estimate | BEA GDP Second Estimate |
| consumer discretionary and consumer staples | consumer spending | observed_value | Current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased $111.1 billion, or 0.5%. | 1.0% in March 2026 | prior value | April 2026 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
| consumer discretionary and consumer staples | retail sales | observed_value | U.S. retail and food services sales were $757.1 billion. | up 0.5% from the previous month | month-over-month change | April 2026 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade |
| real estate | residential property activity | observed_value | Existing-home sales were 4.02 million SAAR in April 2026. | up 0.2% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | AP / National Association of Realtors |
| real estate | housing construction | observed_value | Housing starts were 1,465,000 SAAR and building permits were 1,442,000 SAAR. | starts down 2.8%; permits up 5.8% from March 2026 | month-over-month change | April 2026 | Census/HUD New Residential Construction |
| Nasdaq / growth / technology | software prices | observed_value | The PCE "Computer Software and Accessories" category had a record 73% annualized increase from November 2025 through March 2026. | nearly triple the previous peak in April 2025 | prior value | November 2025 through March 2026 | Federal Reserve FEDS Notes |
| semiconductors | global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $298.5 billion during Q1 2026. | up 25% from Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| semiconductors | monthly global chip sales | observed_value | Global semiconductor sales were $99.5 billion during March 2026. | up 79.2% from March 2025 | year-over-year change | March 2026 | Semiconductor Industry Association |
| AI/technology themes | AI infrastructure and electricity | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | IEA reported that capital expenditure of five large technology companies was more than $400 billion in 2025 and was set to increase by a further 75% in 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2025 and 2026 forecast, published April 16, 2026 | IEA Energy and AI |
| AI/technology themes | data-center electricity | observed_value | IEA reported electricity demand from data centers increased 17% in 2025. | not source-reported | not source-reported | 2025, published April 16, 2026 | IEA Energy and AI |
| aerospace/defense | defense budget request | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The FY2027 U.S. defense budget request was $1.5 trillion, including a $1.15 trillion base request and $350 billion from reconciliation. | administration said FY2027 base budget represented a 28% increase from the FY2026 base budget | year-over-year change | April 2026 | Breaking Defense |
| utilities | electricity demand | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA forecast U.S. electricity demand would rise 1.3% in 2026 and 3.1% in 2027. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| energy/oil | crude oil outlook | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | EIA expected global oil inventories to fall by an average of 8.5 million barrels per day in Q2 2026 and expected Brent prices around $106 per barrel in May and June. | last month's STEO forecast a 0.3 million barrel per day inventory decrease for 2026 | prior value | May 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook | EIA STEO |
| energy/oil | OPEC supply policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | Seven OPEC+ countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day from previous voluntary adjustments. | not source-reported | not source-reported | decision on May 3, 2026; adjustment for June 2026 | OPEC |
| broad commodities | commodity index | observed_value | Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index was quoted at 357.81. | down 6.92, or 1.90% | prior value | May 28, 2026 3:19 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| gold | precious metals | observed_value | Gold futures were quoted at $4,548.40 per t oz. | up $37.20, or 0.82% | prior value | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| silver | precious metals | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | The Silver Institute said the silver market was expected to remain in deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026. | total global silver supply forecast to increase by 1.5% to 1.05 billion ounces | consensus / forecast comparison | 2026 forecast, published February 10, 2026 | The Silver Institute |
| copper and materials | copper futures | observed_value | Copper futures were quoted at 634.45 USd/lb. | up 13.80, or 2.22% | prior value | May 28, 2026 3:18 PM EDT | Bloomberg Commodities |
| agriculture | grains | labeled_forecast_or_estimate | USDA forecast the U.S. corn crop at 16.0 billion bushels. | down 6% from a year ago | year-over-year change | 2026/27 marketing year forecast, May 2026 WASDE | USDA WASDE |
| Europe equities | euro area policy and GDP | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The ECB held the deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates at 2.00%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, respectively. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 30, 2026 | European Central Bank |
| Europe equities | euro area GDP | observed_value | Euro area GDP increased by 0.1% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2026. | not source-reported | not source-reported | Q1 2026 preliminary flash estimate | Eurostat |
| Japan equities | Japan policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% in a 6-3 vote. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 28, 2026 | AP / Bank of Japan |
| China equities | China credit policy | policy_or_regulatory_fact | China's one-year LPR was held at 3.0% and the five-year LPR was held at 3.5%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | Trading Economics China Interest Rate |
| China equities | manufacturing PMI | observed_value | China's official manufacturing PMI was 50.3 in April 2026. | down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month | month-over-month change | April 2026 | National Bureau of Statistics of China |
| Canada equities | Canada policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.50% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 | Bank of Canada |
| UK equities | UK policy rate | policy_or_regulatory_fact | The Bank of England MPC voted 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75%. | not source-reported | not source-reported | April 29, 2026 meeting | Bank of England |
## 5. Tension Ledger
| area_or_asset_group | source_reported_fact_1 | source_reported_fact_2 | unresolved_question | source_or_sources |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| business surveys | ISM Manufacturing PMI was 52.7 in April 2026, the same reading as March 2026 | ISM Services PMI was 53.6 in April 2026, compared with 54.0 in March 2026 | June 1 and June 3 ISM releases | ISM Manufacturing PMI; ISM Services PMI |
| consumer and spending | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was 44.8 in May 2026 final results | current-dollar PCE increased 0.5% in April 2026 | June 3 ISM Services PMI | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers; BEA Personal Income and Outlays |
## 6. Scheduled Calendar
| date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type_or_asset_group | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 1, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release; industrials; materials; broad US equities | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
| June 3, 2026 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, May 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release; communication services; consumer sectors; broad US equities | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar |
## 7. Missing Major Data
| data_area | missing_item | note |
|---|---|---|
| business surveys | May 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI | scheduled for June 1 and June 3, 2026 |
## 8. Final Neutrality Statement
This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md
This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.
- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close; yahoo_chart_adjclose fallback for rows marked in CSV message
- As-of date requested: 2026-05-28
- Failed options: 0
| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH | | cash | 2026-05-28 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-28 | 0.07% | 0.30% | 1.77% | 3.90% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.60% | 6.03% | 11.05% | 29.86% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.80% | 6.00% | 11.17% | 30.04% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 2.95% | 11.87% | 19.09% | 42.44% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 1.96% | 6.76% | 6.92% | 28.13% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 1.42% | 4.82% | 14.34% | 28.98% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-28 | 2.13% | 3.25% | 13.04% | 25.52% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-28 | 3.38% | 6.62% | 18.00% | 43.63% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-28 | 2.66% | 4.11% | 19.19% | 45.25% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.18% | 4.22% | 20.49% | 30.15% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | -1.04% | -1.41% | 0.77% | 2.55% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-28 | 4.13% | 13.92% | 26.19% | 37.83% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 4.63% | 18.38% | 30.94% | 62.55% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 0.49% | 0.79% | 1.76% | 16.03% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 2.83% | 4.32% | 3.65% | 14.51% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.27% | 1.62% | 7.83% | 6.10% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 1.84% | 4.89% | -3.49% | 16.80% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.89% | -1.12% | -3.03% | 2.91% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 1.92% | 1.65% | 13.79% | 23.52% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -3.72% | -1.35% | 27.78% | 43.93% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | 2.68% | -0.08% | 16.01% | 21.77% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.84% | -3.52% | -0.10% | 13.97% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-28 | -0.20% | 1.14% | 8.46% | 11.24% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.79% | -0.42% | -1.18% | 4.60% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 1.80% | -0.36% | -2.82% | 5.00% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.73% | 0.01% | 1.04% | 5.28% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-28 | 1.01% | 0.32% | -0.07% | 6.83% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-28 | 0.38% | 0.27% | 1.96% | 7.10% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.67% | -0.07% | 0.15% | 5.61% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.37% | 5.80% | 18.56% | 33.71% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 2.04% | 2.71% | 12.48% | 30.06% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 0.30% | 3.33% | 10.75% | 20.38% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.46% | 5.87% | 15.85% | 31.70% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | -1.73% | -3.12% | -10.51% | 5.40% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.37% | -1.10% | -11.00% | -10.31% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -0.98% | -2.16% | 6.52% | 36.06% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -3.22% | -1.94% | 33.88% | 44.94% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 5.63% | 22.11% | 70.80% | 148.27% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-28 | 3.46% | 12.56% | -8.08% | -7.18% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-05-28 | 1.73% | 3.73% | 9.63% | 20.26% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-05-28 | 2.42% | 3.68% | 10.78% | 73.28% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-05-28 | 0.49% | -1.17% | 11.75% | 25.55% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-05-28 | 5.57% | 8.95% | 14.93% | 34.94% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 0.00% | 1.95% | 12.15% | 32.93% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -0.72% | 0.97% | 11.03% | 23.24% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -0.07% | -0.34% | 13.99% | 17.04% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 10.70% | 33.68% | 132.19% | 247.32% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 8.33% | 17.31% | 65.93% | 100.98% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | -2.43% | -9.02% | 11.20% | 37.49% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 1.30% | 3.32% | 17.40% | 34.27% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-05-28 | 2.12% | 1.81% | 10.16% | 42.99% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.86% | -0.04% | 1.00% | 7.34% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.90% | 0.02% | 1.23% | 6.37% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-05-28 | 1.31% | 0.72% | 2.04% | 12.18% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-28 | 0.58% | 0.78% | 0.26% | 2.29% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -1.57% | 3.26% | 33.49% | 128.02% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-05-28 | 1.24% | 7.78% | 21.00% | 33.72% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -0.11% | -1.36% | 8.16% | 6.94% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-05-28 | -8.25% | -6.32% | 84.02% | 92.64% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-05-28 | -0.11% | 0.62% | 1.55% | 3.75% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-05-28 | 0.25% | -0.45% | 0.75% | 3.90% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-05-28 | -0.21% | 0.26% | -2.16% | -9.38% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-28 | -5.55% | -3.95% | -19.38% | -31.63% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-05-28 | -5.94% | -12.55% | -33.81% | -23.44% | pass |Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."Round Hashes hashes.json
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}Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 5 model calls
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-28-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-28-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-28-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-28-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-28-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF Parsed provider responses
Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.7
anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 35% MTUM 25% XLK 20% ITA 15% IAU 5%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Tilt into dominant AI/semis/tech momentum complex which has strongest near-term flows and earnings tailwinds, complemented by defense beneficiary of budget cycle and small gold hedge. Avoids weak energy/crypto/China and rate-sensitive defensives lagging.
Ride the semis-tech-momentum leadership through ISM prints June 1/3 while VIX is contained and Fed is on hold; small gold hedge for inflation/macro tail.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strongest momentum with chip sales +79% YoY, AI capex surging 75% in 2026, and 5.6% weekly gain shows persistent trend.
- US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 25% - Momentum factor up 4.13% last week and 13.92% monthly; trend persistence favored with VIX at 16 and easing financial conditions.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 20% - Tech sector +4.63% weekly, +18% monthly; AI infrastructure spend and software pricing tailwinds intact through window.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - FY2027 defense budget +28% with $1.5T request; ITA +5.57% weekly momentum into ISM week.
- Gold (IAU): 5% - Hedge against ISM disappointment and sticky 3.8% CPI; gold futures firming despite weekly dip.
Key Risks
- Soft May ISM Manufacturing (June 1) or Services (June 3) triggers risk-off in high-beta tech/semis
- Sticky 3.8% headline CPI and 5.01% 30y yield drive a duration/growth-stock selloff
- Momentum factor crowding leads to sharp reversal/rotation into value or defensives
- Oil/commodity weakness signals demand concerns spilling into cyclicals
- Geopolitical or Taiwan-related shock hitting semiconductor supply chain sentiment
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Soft May ISM Manufacturing (June 1) or Services (June 3) triggers risk-off in high-beta tech/semis",
"Sticky 3.8% headline CPI and 5.01% 30y yield drive a duration/growth-stock selloff",
"Momentum factor crowding leads to sharp reversal/rotation into value or defensives",
"Oil/commodity weakness signals demand concerns spilling into cyclicals",
"Geopolitical or Taiwan-related shock hitting semiconductor supply chain sentiment"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest momentum with chip sales +79% YoY, AI capex surging 75% in 2026, and 5.6% weekly gain shows persistent trend."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"rationale": "Momentum factor up 4.13% last week and 13.92% monthly; trend persistence favored with VIX at 16 and easing financial conditions."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Tech sector +4.63% weekly, +18% monthly; AI infrastructure spend and software pricing tailwinds intact through window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "FY2027 defense budget +28% with $1.5T request; ITA +5.57% weekly momentum into ISM week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 5,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Hedge against ISM disappointment and sticky 3.8% CPI; gold futures firming despite weekly dip."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt into dominant AI/semis/tech momentum complex which has strongest near-term flows and earnings tailwinds, complemented by defense beneficiary of budget cycle and small gold hedge. Avoids weak energy/crypto/China and rate-sensitive defensives lagging.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Ride the semis-tech-momentum leadership through ISM prints June 1/3 while VIX is contained and Fed is on hold; small gold hedge for inflation/macro tail.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-28-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 24023,
"latency_seconds": 15.841315913014114,
"output_tokens": 825,
"total_tokens": 24848
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 4.8
anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 35% XLK 25% MTUM 20% QQQ 10% EWT 10%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Risk-on backdrop with VIX at 16, tight credit spreads, Fed on hold, and powerful AI/semiconductor momentum argues for an overweight to tech leadership for the one-week window while keeping diversification within the theme.
Concentrate in semiconductor and tech momentum leaders that show the strongest short-term trend and fundamental tailwinds heading into June 4.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strongest near-term momentum (+5.6% 7d, +22% 30d), robust chip sales data up 79% YoY, and AI capex tailwind; leadership likely persists into June 4.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 25% - Broad tech leadership (+4.6% 7d) supported by strong software pricing and AI infrastructure spending; less concentrated than pure semis.
- US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 20% - Momentum factor leading (+4.1% 7d) in a low-VIX, tight-credit risk-on tape; trend persistence favored over a one-week window.
- Nasdaq 100 (QQQ): 10% - Mega-cap growth exposure with strong trend (+2.95% 7d) and beta to continued tech leadership.
- Taiwan Equities (EWT): 10% - Semiconductor supply-chain proxy with explosive momentum (+8.3% 7d); leverages same AI/chip cycle driving leadership.
Key Risks
- A sharp tech/semiconductor momentum reversal or factor rotation into value/defensives could hit the concentrated growth tilt hard.
- Disappointing June 1 ISM Manufacturing or June 3 ISM Services prints could trigger a risk-off move dragging high-beta tech.
- Rising long-term yields (30Y at 5.01%) could pressure high-multiple growth names within the window.
- Taiwan and semis carry geopolitical and currency risk that could cause sudden drawdowns.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sharp tech/semiconductor momentum reversal or factor rotation into value/defensives could hit the concentrated growth tilt hard.",
"Disappointing June 1 ISM Manufacturing or June 3 ISM Services prints could trigger a risk-off move dragging high-beta tech.",
"Rising long-term yields (30Y at 5.01%) could pressure high-multiple growth names within the window.",
"Taiwan and semis carry geopolitical and currency risk that could cause sudden drawdowns."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest near-term momentum (+5.6% 7d, +22% 30d), robust chip sales data up 79% YoY, and AI capex tailwind; leadership likely persists into June 4."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad tech leadership (+4.6% 7d) supported by strong software pricing and AI infrastructure spending; less concentrated than pure semis."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"rationale": "Momentum factor leading (+4.1% 7d) in a low-VIX, tight-credit risk-on tape; trend persistence favored over a one-week window."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"rationale": "Mega-cap growth exposure with strong trend (+2.95% 7d) and beta to continued tech leadership."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Semiconductor supply-chain proxy with explosive momentum (+8.3% 7d); leverages same AI/chip cycle driving leadership."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Risk-on backdrop with VIX at 16, tight credit spreads, Fed on hold, and powerful AI/semiconductor momentum argues for an overweight to tech leadership for the one-week window while keeping diversification within the theme.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Concentrate in semiconductor and tech momentum leaders that show the strongest short-term trend and fundamental tailwinds heading into June 4.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-28-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 24018,
"latency_seconds": 11.80416735401377,
"output_tokens": 811,
"total_tokens": 24829
}
} Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
3 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 40% XLK 30% MTUM 30%
- Confidence
- 0.65
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology and momentum, capitalizing on the strong recent performance of semiconductors and AI-related themes. The upcoming ISM data releases are unlikely to derail this specific thematic momentum within a one-week window.
Overweighting technology and momentum to capture ongoing AI-driven strength.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Strong momentum and AI infrastructure spending trends support continued outperformance in the near term.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 30% - Broad technology exposure benefits from the same AI tailwinds and strong recent momentum.
- US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 30% - Captures the strong recent trend in equities, particularly in tech and growth sectors.
Key Risks
- A sudden reversal in AI sentiment or profit-taking in high-flying tech stocks.
- Weaker-than-expected ISM data causing a broad market sell-off.
- Interest rate volatility impacting high-duration growth equities.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.65,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sudden reversal in AI sentiment or profit-taking in high-flying tech stocks.",
"Weaker-than-expected ISM data causing a broad market sell-off.",
"Interest rate volatility impacting high-duration growth equities."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strong momentum and AI infrastructure spending trends support continued outperformance in the near term."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad technology exposure benefits from the same AI tailwinds and strong recent momentum."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"rationale": "Captures the strong recent trend in equities, particularly in tech and growth sectors."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is heavily tilted toward technology and momentum, capitalizing on the strong recent performance of semiconductors and AI-related themes. The upcoming ISM data releases are unlikely to derail this specific thematic momentum within a one-week window.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "Overweighting technology and momentum to capture ongoing AI-driven strength.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-28-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16502,
"latency_seconds": 6.0479713230161,
"output_tokens": 380,
"total_tokens": 16882
}
} OpenAI
GPT-5.5
openai-gpt-5-5
5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 40% EWY 25% EWT 20% XLK 10% ITA 5%
- Confidence
- 0.61
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The allocation is intentionally aggressive for a one-week relative-return contest, emphasizing the strongest near-term momentum areas: semiconductors, AI-linked Asian exporters, and technology. Low volatility, tight credit spreads, and loose financial conditions favor continued risk-on leadership, while scheduled ISM releases could support cyclical and growth sentiment if not materially weak.
Concentrated exposure to semiconductors, Korea, Taiwan, and technology targets trend persistence over the May 28 to June 4 window. A small aerospace-defense allocation adds another strong-momentum theme with supportive policy context.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Strongest directly supported AI and chip-cycle exposure, with leading 7-day, 30-day, 6-month, and 1-year momentum plus robust reported global semiconductor sales growth.
- South Korea Equities (EWY): 25% - Very strong recent country momentum and high sensitivity to semiconductors, exports, and global risk appetite, offering potential upside if the AI hardware trade continues through the week.
- Taiwan Equities (EWT): 20% - Semiconductor supply-chain exposure with exceptional recent momentum and likely correlation to continued chip and AI infrastructure enthusiasm.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 10% - Broad large-cap technology exposure adds participation in the same near-term growth leadership while slightly diversifying beyond pure semiconductor and country-specific risk.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 5% - Recent strong performance and supportive defense-budget facts provide a diversifying momentum sleeve outside AI-linked equities.
Key Risks
- A sharp one-week reversal in crowded AI, semiconductor, Korea, or Taiwan momentum trades could produce large underperformance versus the S&P 500.
- June 1 manufacturing or June 3 services ISM releases could disappoint and trigger risk-off selling in high-beta cyclicals and growth equities.
- Rising Treasury yields or renewed inflation concerns could pressure high-valuation technology and semiconductor shares before the exit close.
- Adverse Asia FX moves, export-policy headlines, or Taiwan/Korea geopolitical concerns could hit the country ETF allocations disproportionately.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.61,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A sharp one-week reversal in crowded AI, semiconductor, Korea, or Taiwan momentum trades could produce large underperformance versus the S&P 500.",
"June 1 manufacturing or June 3 services ISM releases could disappoint and trigger risk-off selling in high-beta cyclicals and growth equities.",
"Rising Treasury yields or renewed inflation concerns could pressure high-valuation technology and semiconductor shares before the exit close.",
"Adverse Asia FX moves, export-policy headlines, or Taiwan/Korea geopolitical concerns could hit the country ETF allocations disproportionately."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest directly supported AI and chip-cycle exposure, with leading 7-day, 30-day, 6-month, and 1-year momentum plus robust reported global semiconductor sales growth."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
"rationale": "Very strong recent country momentum and high sensitivity to semiconductors, exports, and global risk appetite, offering potential upside if the AI hardware trade continues through the week."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "Semiconductor supply-chain exposure with exceptional recent momentum and likely correlation to continued chip and AI infrastructure enthusiasm."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "Broad large-cap technology exposure adds participation in the same near-term growth leadership while slightly diversifying beyond pure semiconductor and country-specific risk."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 5,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "Recent strong performance and supportive defense-budget facts provide a diversifying momentum sleeve outside AI-linked equities."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The allocation is intentionally aggressive for a one-week relative-return contest, emphasizing the strongest near-term momentum areas: semiconductors, AI-linked Asian exporters, and technology. Low volatility, tight credit spreads, and loose financial conditions favor continued risk-on leadership, while scheduled ISM releases could support cyclical and growth sentiment if not materially weak.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Concentrated exposure to semiconductors, Korea, Taiwan, and technology targets trend persistence over the May 28 to June 4 window. A small aerospace-defense allocation adds another strong-momentum theme with supportive policy context.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-28-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14976,
"latency_seconds": 16.56108779500937,
"output_tokens": 608,
"reasoning_tokens": 97,
"total_tokens": 15584
}
} xAI
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
3 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)
SMH 40% XLK 35% ITA 25%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Concentrated tilt to recent momentum leaders in semiconductors, technology, and aerospace/defense to capture short-term continuation into the June 1-3 ISM window.
Recent 7-day outperformance in high-beta tech and defense names combined with no negative catalysts before June 4 exit favors growth tilt over broad market.
Portfolio
- Semiconductors (SMH): 40% - Strongest 7-day trailing return at 5.63% with continued AI infrastructure spending tailwinds likely to support prices into early June.
- Technology Sector (XLK): 35% - 4.63% 7-day return and sector exposure to software and hardware benefiting from data-center demand before ISM releases.
- Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 25% - 5.57% 7-day return and FY2027 defense budget request providing near-term positive sentiment.
Key Risks
- Weaker-than-expected May ISM Manufacturing PMI on June 1 could trigger broad equity rotation
- Disappointing ISM Services PMI on June 3 could pressure growth stocks
- Profit-taking after strong recent semiconductor and tech gains
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Weaker-than-expected May ISM Manufacturing PMI on June 1 could trigger broad equity rotation",
"Disappointing ISM Services PMI on June 3 could pressure growth stocks",
"Profit-taking after strong recent semiconductor and tech gains"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Strongest 7-day trailing return at 5.63% with continued AI infrastructure spending tailwinds likely to support prices into early June."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"rationale": "4.63% 7-day return and sector exposure to software and hardware benefiting from data-center demand before ISM releases."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "5.57% 7-day return and FY2027 defense budget request providing near-term positive sentiment."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Concentrated tilt to recent momentum leaders in semiconductors, technology, and aerospace/defense to capture short-term continuation into the June 1-3 ISM window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Recent 7-day outperformance in high-beta tech and defense names combined with no negative catalysts before June 4 exit favors growth tilt over broad market.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-05-28-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 14903,
"latency_seconds": 9.53148315101862,
"output_tokens": 365,
"reasoning_tokens": 596,
"total_tokens": 15864
}
} Public model run
Model Portfolios
This test used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 | Anthropic | SMH35%MTUM25%XLK20%ITA15%IAU5% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | SMH35%XLK25%MTUM20%QQQ10%EWT10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | SMH40%XLK30%MTUM30% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5 | OpenAI | SMH40%EWY25%EWT20%XLK10%ITA5% | 0.61 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | SMH40%XLK35%ITA25% | 0.55 | Portfolio round |
Pricing
Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the test is complete.
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | 2026-05-28 | 235.57000732421875 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | 2026-05-28 | 99 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | 2026-05-28 | 27.579999923706055 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | 2026-05-28 | 28.969999313354492 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| BIOTECH | XBI | 2026-05-28 | 135.99000549316406 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | 2026-05-28 | 41.560001373291016 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | 2026-05-28 | 36.11000061035156 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | 2026-05-28 | 17.719999313354492 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| CANADA | EWC | 2026-05-28 | 58.58000183105469 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| CASH | 2026-05-28 | 1 | cash | |
| CHINA | MCHI | 2026-05-28 | 54.9900016784668 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | 2026-05-28 | 116.66999816894531 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | 2026-05-28 | 122.05999755859375 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | 2026-05-28 | 84.43000030517578 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| COPPER | CPER | 2026-05-28 | 39.060001373291016 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | 2026-05-28 | 71.66000366210938 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | 2026-05-28 | 32.630001068115234 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | 2026-05-28 | 96.2300033569336 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | 2026-05-28 | 59.900001525878906 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| ENERGY | XLE | 2026-05-28 | 56.93000030517578 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | 2026-05-28 | 208.25 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | 2026-05-28 | 15.1899995803833 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| EURO | FXE | 2026-05-28 | 107.5 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| EUROPE | VGK | 2026-05-28 | 89.02999877929688 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | 2026-05-28 | 51.27000045776367 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| GOLD | IAU | 2026-05-28 | 84.58999633789062 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | 2026-05-28 | 150.8800048828125 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | 2026-05-28 | 80.19999694824219 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| INDIA | INDA | 2026-05-28 | 48.689998626708984 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | 2026-05-28 | 173.8000030517578 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | 2026-05-28 | 94.54000091552734 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | 2026-05-28 | 48.2599983215332 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | 2026-05-28 | 109.26000213623047 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| JAPAN | EWJ | 2026-05-28 | 92.69999694824219 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | 2026-05-28 | 127.12000274658203 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | 2026-05-28 | 238.02999877929688 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | 2026-05-28 | 85.73999786376953 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | 2026-05-28 | 72.91999816894531 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| MATERIALS | XLB | 2026-05-28 | 51.36000061035156 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| MEXICO | EWW | 2026-05-28 | 78.80999755859375 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| MID_CAP | IJH | 2026-05-28 | 74.44999694824219 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | 2026-05-28 | 314.6499938964844 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | 2026-05-28 | 94.70999908447266 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | 2026-05-28 | 107.02999877929688 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | 2026-05-28 | 735.5999755859375 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| OIL | USO | 2026-05-28 | 130.77999877929688 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | 2026-05-28 | 44.40999984741211 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | 2026-05-28 | 69.55000305175781 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | 2026-05-28 | 599.8300170898438 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | 2026-05-28 | 91.62999725341797 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SILVER | SLV | 2026-05-28 | 68.36000061035156 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | 2026-05-28 | 292.0299987792969 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | 2026-05-28 | 215.36000061035156 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | 2026-05-28 | 95.68000030517578 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | 2026-05-28 | 69.70999908447266 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | 2026-05-28 | 206.36000061035156 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| SP500 | SPY | 2026-05-28 | 754.5999755859375 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| TAIWAN | EWT | 2026-05-28 | 102.33999633789062 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | 2026-05-28 | 186.8699951171875 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| TIPS | TIP | 2026-05-28 | 111.18000030517578 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | 2026-05-28 | 371.6600036621094 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | 2026-05-28 | 47 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | 2026-05-28 | 27.700000762939453 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| UTILITIES | XLU | 2026-05-28 | 44.619998931884766 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
| YEN | FXY | 2026-05-28 | 57.650001525878906 | yahoo_chart_adjclose_from_trailing_returns |
Proof
Published Hashes
Test inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 4cb4196311a7...9688dabe |
| manifest.yaml | 12df79a7b7b7...98f001d3 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv | 7954637410ea...b56ce89d |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json | 47ec7b55b64d...406102d9 |
| market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md | 73926262ce4f...e19ef8ac |
| options.yaml | 8e07e0a1d099...f15afcb1 |
| prompt.md | 97a40630adcd...6412e63b |