Round audit packet
One-week market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 32.5 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 66.2 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-11 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260902-weekly
37,147 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this weekly round.
Silver (SLV)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- Decision date: 2026-09-02
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-02T03:13:45Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-03T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one week
- Entry date: 2026-09-03
- Exit date: 2026-09-11
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Factual Market Briefing — September 2, 2026 Cycle
Research cutoff: **2026-09-02T03:13:45Z**. The latest completed U.S. market session at the cutoff was September 1, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market snapshot
- On September 1, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,631.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 52,766.88, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0% to 26,099.77, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.2% to 2,920.13. Associated Press described the session as broadly lower and reported a third consecutive daily decline for the major indexes. It also reported that all four major indexes had gained in August.
- Associated Press reported September 1 declines of 1.5% for Nvidia, 1.9% for Amazon, and 2.4% for Advanced Micro Devices, identifying large technology shares as heavy index weights during the session.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed near 4.79%, up from 4.75% late August 31, after touching 4.80%. The two-year yield rose to 4.39% from 4.34%. The five-year yield touched 4.55%.
- Brent crude rose 4.6% to settle at $94.65 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 5.2% to settle at $90.22, its first close above $90 in more than a month.
- Reuters reported that gold fell more than 2% to a two-week low while the dollar index traded near 99.64 and the euro near $1.1591.
## Newly released activity and labor indicators
- The Institute for Supply Management reported an August Manufacturing PMI of 54.6%, down from 55.6% in July and above 50 for an eighth consecutive month.
- ISM's August subindexes were: New Orders 53.7%, Production 58.3%, Employment 51.2%, Supplier Deliveries 59.3%, Inventories 50.6%, Prices 71.1%, Backlog of Orders 51.8%, New Export Orders 53.2%, and Imports 52.5%. Survey diffusion indexes measure the share and direction of reported change rather than measured output levels.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.271 million job openings in July, with a 4.4% openings rate. Hires and total separations were each approximately 5.1 million. Quits were 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges were 1.7 million. BLS described those aggregate measures as little changed.
- BLS revised June job openings down by 177,000 to 7.2 million. June hires and total separations were each revised to 5.3 million.
- The Census Bureau reported July construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,157.6 billion, down 0.5% from June. The headline release is subject to revision and survey error.
## Growth, consumption, industry, and housing
- BEA's second estimate showed second-quarter real GDP increasing at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 4.2%, real gross domestic income increased 2.2%, and the average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.8%.
- BEA reported that the second-quarter gross-domestic-purchases price index increased at a 5.8% annual rate. The PCE price index increased 5.3%, and PCE prices excluding food and energy increased 3.6%.
- July current-dollar personal income increased 0.4%, disposable personal income increased 0.5%, and current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. Real PCE changed by less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- Advance July retail and food-services sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Census reported margins of error of plus or minus 0.4 percentage point for the monthly change and plus or minus 0.5 percentage point for the annual change. The figures were not adjusted for price changes.
- Industrial production and manufacturing production each increased 0.2% in July. Manufacturing production excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4%. Manufacturing capacity utilization was 76.0%, 2.2 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
- Advance durable-goods orders increased 1.1% to $339.3 billion in July. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.4%, and orders excluding defense increased 1.3%.
- July housing starts were at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from June with a plus or minus 9.5% margin. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0%.
- New single-family home sales were at a 607,000 annual rate, down 10.5% from June with a plus or minus 14.0% margin. New-home inventory represented 9.6 months of supply, and the median sales price was $393,800. The reported monthly sales change was not statistically distinguishable from zero at the stated confidence level.
## Inflation and monetary policy
- U.S. CPI increased 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier. CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% over twelve months. Energy prices declined 1.5% during July but were 14.7% above July 2025.
- The July PCE price index increased 0.2% monthly and 3.7% over twelve months. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices increased 0.2% monthly and 3.3% over twelve months.
- The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July and increased 4.7% over twelve months. Final-demand services increased 0.2%, while final-demand goods declined 0.7%.
- On July 29, the FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Nine voting members supported the decision; three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16.
- Associated Press reported that CME FedWatch implied a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September FOMC meeting as of September 1. This was a changing market-derived probability, not Federal Reserve guidance.
- On July 23, the European Central Bank held the deposit-facility rate at 2.25%, the main-refinancing rate at 2.40%, and the marginal-lending rate at 2.65%. The ECB stated that future decisions would remain data dependent and meeting by meeting.
- The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.0% on July 31 after raising it from 0.75% in June. Its July outlook described moderate growth at a decelerated rate and future policy adjustment as conditional on activity, prices, and financial conditions.
## International and energy record
- Eurostat's August flash estimate put euro-area annual inflation at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July, with a 0.4% monthly increase. Energy inflation was estimated at 14.3%, services at 3.0%, non-energy industrial goods at 1.2%, and food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.2%. Inflation excluding energy was estimated at 2.2%. Complete August data are scheduled for September 17.
- China's official manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8% in August from 49.2% in July. Production was 50.4%, new orders 50.6%, raw-material inventories 48.1%, and employment 48.7%. Large-enterprise PMI was 50.6%, medium-enterprise PMI 49.4%, and small-enterprise PMI 47.9%.
- Associated Press reported renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses on September 1, along with incidents involving vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Security and shipping reports were provisional at the cutoff.
- EIA's August forecast assumed severely constrained Strait of Hormuz transits through August and gradually increasing flows in September. It forecast Brent crude to average about $85 per barrel in the third quarter and $78 in the fourth quarter. These were conditional forecasts completed August 6; September 1 Brent settled at $94.65.
- Seven OPEC+ countries announced a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment for September and scheduled their next meeting for September 6. Announced targets can differ from realized production and exports.
- At the cutoff, EIA's latest weekly petroleum report covered the week ended August 21. The next weekly report was scheduled after the cutoff on September 2.
## Corporate disclosures
- Dell reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $47.0 billion, up 58% from a year earlier. AI-optimized server revenue was $16.4 billion, up 100%. Dell raised its fiscal-2027 revenue guidance from $167 billion to $192 billion and AI-optimized server revenue guidance from $60 billion to $74 billion. Guidance is forward-looking.
- Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, including Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.
- Salesforce reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11% year over year, and current remaining performance obligation of $33.5 billion, up 14% in constant currency. It raised its fiscal-year revenue guidance by $200 million, or $300 million in constant currency.
- Broadcom scheduled fiscal third-quarter results and its business outlook for September 2 after the market close. Those results were not available by the cutoff.
## Scheduled catalysts inside the scoring windows
- **September 2:** ADP employment report; full manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders; Federal Reserve Beige Book; Broadcom results after the close.
- **September 3:** Initial jobless claims; revised second-quarter productivity and costs; July international trade; ISM Services PMI; scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
- **September 4:** August Employment Situation.
- **September 6–7:** Scheduled OPEC+ meeting on September 6; U.S. Labor Day market holiday on September 7.
- **September 9–11:** EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and compensation data on September 9; August PPI and the scheduled ECB decision on September 10; August CPI and real earnings on September 11.
- **September 15–18:** FOMC meeting September 15–16; August retail sales and import/export prices September 16; complete euro-area August inflation data September 17; August industrial production and state employment September 18.
- **September 25–30:** Advance August durable-goods report September 25; August JOLTS September 29; BEA third-estimate GDP, annual national-accounts update, and August personal income and outlays September 30.
- **October 1–2:** August construction spending October 1; September Employment Situation and September ISM Manufacturing PMI October 2.
## Final neutrality statement
These fixed facts, source-reported uncertainties, conditional forecasts, and scheduled events are common context only. They do not select, rank, recommend, analyze, or map CapitalBench options. The complete mechanical full-universe context and deterministic V3 artifacts are supplied separately in frozen option order, and historical price behavior is descriptive rather than a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one week and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-02-1W
description: One-week market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-02'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-03T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one week
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-02T03:21:31.139097+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-03'
exit_date: '2026-09-11'
created_at: '2026-09-02T03:21:31.139097+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh September 2, 2026 public-web research; no prior input report reused. Latest completed U.S. session: September 1, 2026. Weekly exit is September 11 because NYSE markets are closed for Labor Day on September 7.'# CapitalBench Factual Market Briefing — September 2, 2026 Cycle
Research cutoff: **2026-09-02T03:13:45Z**. The latest completed U.S. market session at the cutoff was September 1, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market snapshot
- On September 1, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,631.47, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 52,766.88, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.0% to 26,099.77, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.2% to 2,920.13. Associated Press described the session as broadly lower and reported a third consecutive daily decline for the major indexes. It also reported that all four major indexes had gained in August.
- Associated Press reported September 1 declines of 1.5% for Nvidia, 1.9% for Amazon, and 2.4% for Advanced Micro Devices, identifying large technology shares as heavy index weights during the session.
- The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed near 4.79%, up from 4.75% late August 31, after touching 4.80%. The two-year yield rose to 4.39% from 4.34%. The five-year yield touched 4.55%.
- Brent crude rose 4.6% to settle at $94.65 per barrel. U.S. crude rose 5.2% to settle at $90.22, its first close above $90 in more than a month.
- Reuters reported that gold fell more than 2% to a two-week low while the dollar index traded near 99.64 and the euro near $1.1591.
## Newly released activity and labor indicators
- The Institute for Supply Management reported an August Manufacturing PMI of 54.6%, down from 55.6% in July and above 50 for an eighth consecutive month.
- ISM's August subindexes were: New Orders 53.7%, Production 58.3%, Employment 51.2%, Supplier Deliveries 59.3%, Inventories 50.6%, Prices 71.1%, Backlog of Orders 51.8%, New Export Orders 53.2%, and Imports 52.5%. Survey diffusion indexes measure the share and direction of reported change rather than measured output levels.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 7.271 million job openings in July, with a 4.4% openings rate. Hires and total separations were each approximately 5.1 million. Quits were 3.1 million and layoffs and discharges were 1.7 million. BLS described those aggregate measures as little changed.
- BLS revised June job openings down by 177,000 to 7.2 million. June hires and total separations were each revised to 5.3 million.
- The Census Bureau reported July construction spending at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,157.6 billion, down 0.5% from June. The headline release is subject to revision and survey error.
## Growth, consumption, industry, and housing
- BEA's second estimate showed second-quarter real GDP increasing at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 4.2%, real gross domestic income increased 2.2%, and the average of real GDP and real GDI increased 1.8%.
- BEA reported that the second-quarter gross-domestic-purchases price index increased at a 5.8% annual rate. The PCE price index increased 5.3%, and PCE prices excluding food and energy increased 3.6%.
- July current-dollar personal income increased 0.4%, disposable personal income increased 0.5%, and current-dollar personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. Real PCE changed by less than 0.1%. The personal saving rate was 3.0%.
- Advance July retail and food-services sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Census reported margins of error of plus or minus 0.4 percentage point for the monthly change and plus or minus 0.5 percentage point for the annual change. The figures were not adjusted for price changes.
- Industrial production and manufacturing production each increased 0.2% in July. Manufacturing production excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4%. Manufacturing capacity utilization was 76.0%, 2.2 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
- Advance durable-goods orders increased 1.1% to $339.3 billion in July. Orders excluding transportation increased 0.4%, and orders excluding defense increased 1.3%.
- July housing starts were at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from June with a plus or minus 9.5% margin. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0%.
- New single-family home sales were at a 607,000 annual rate, down 10.5% from June with a plus or minus 14.0% margin. New-home inventory represented 9.6 months of supply, and the median sales price was $393,800. The reported monthly sales change was not statistically distinguishable from zero at the stated confidence level.
## Inflation and monetary policy
- U.S. CPI increased 0.1% in July and 3.4% from a year earlier. CPI excluding food and energy increased 0.2% monthly and 2.5% over twelve months. Energy prices declined 1.5% during July but were 14.7% above July 2025.
- The July PCE price index increased 0.2% monthly and 3.7% over twelve months. Excluding food and energy, PCE prices increased 0.2% monthly and 3.3% over twelve months.
- The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July and increased 4.7% over twelve months. Final-demand services increased 0.2%, while final-demand goods declined 0.7%.
- On July 29, the FOMC maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Nine voting members supported the decision; three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point increase. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16.
- Associated Press reported that CME FedWatch implied a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point increase at the September FOMC meeting as of September 1. This was a changing market-derived probability, not Federal Reserve guidance.
- On July 23, the European Central Bank held the deposit-facility rate at 2.25%, the main-refinancing rate at 2.40%, and the marginal-lending rate at 2.65%. The ECB stated that future decisions would remain data dependent and meeting by meeting.
- The Bank of Japan held its policy rate at 1.0% on July 31 after raising it from 0.75% in June. Its July outlook described moderate growth at a decelerated rate and future policy adjustment as conditional on activity, prices, and financial conditions.
## International and energy record
- Eurostat's August flash estimate put euro-area annual inflation at 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July, with a 0.4% monthly increase. Energy inflation was estimated at 14.3%, services at 3.0%, non-energy industrial goods at 1.2%, and food, alcohol and tobacco at 1.2%. Inflation excluding energy was estimated at 2.2%. Complete August data are scheduled for September 17.
- China's official manufacturing PMI increased to 49.8% in August from 49.2% in July. Production was 50.4%, new orders 50.6%, raw-material inventories 48.1%, and employment 48.7%. Large-enterprise PMI was 50.6%, medium-enterprise PMI 49.4%, and small-enterprise PMI 47.9%.
- Associated Press reported renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses on September 1, along with incidents involving vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. Security and shipping reports were provisional at the cutoff.
- EIA's August forecast assumed severely constrained Strait of Hormuz transits through August and gradually increasing flows in September. It forecast Brent crude to average about $85 per barrel in the third quarter and $78 in the fourth quarter. These were conditional forecasts completed August 6; September 1 Brent settled at $94.65.
- Seven OPEC+ countries announced a 188,000-barrel-per-day production adjustment for September and scheduled their next meeting for September 6. Announced targets can differ from realized production and exports.
- At the cutoff, EIA's latest weekly petroleum report covered the week ended August 21. The next weekly report was scheduled after the cutoff on September 2.
## Corporate disclosures
- Dell reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $47.0 billion, up 58% from a year earlier. AI-optimized server revenue was $16.4 billion, up 100%. Dell raised its fiscal-2027 revenue guidance from $167 billion to $192 billion and AI-optimized server revenue guidance from $60 billion to $74 billion. Guidance is forward-looking.
- Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year, including Data Center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%.
- Salesforce reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11% year over year, and current remaining performance obligation of $33.5 billion, up 14% in constant currency. It raised its fiscal-year revenue guidance by $200 million, or $300 million in constant currency.
- Broadcom scheduled fiscal third-quarter results and its business outlook for September 2 after the market close. Those results were not available by the cutoff.
## Scheduled catalysts inside the scoring windows
- **September 2:** ADP employment report; full manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders; Federal Reserve Beige Book; Broadcom results after the close.
- **September 3:** Initial jobless claims; revised second-quarter productivity and costs; July international trade; ISM Services PMI; scheduled remarks by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.
- **September 4:** August Employment Situation.
- **September 6–7:** Scheduled OPEC+ meeting on September 6; U.S. Labor Day market holiday on September 7.
- **September 9–11:** EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and compensation data on September 9; August PPI and the scheduled ECB decision on September 10; August CPI and real earnings on September 11.
- **September 15–18:** FOMC meeting September 15–16; August retail sales and import/export prices September 16; complete euro-area August inflation data September 17; August industrial production and state employment September 18.
- **September 25–30:** Advance August durable-goods report September 25; August JOLTS September 29; BEA third-estimate GDP, annual national-accounts update, and August personal income and outlays September 30.
- **October 1–2:** August construction spending October 1; September Employment Situation and September ISM Manufacturing PMI October 2.
## Final neutrality statement
These fixed facts, source-reported uncertainties, conditional forecasts, and scheduled events are common context only. They do not select, rank, recommend, analyze, or map CapitalBench options. The complete mechanical full-universe context and deterministic V3 artifacts are supplied separately in frozen option order, and historical price behavior is descriptive rather than a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "27964a4e4b193047d90e60b3065e0f8bcd93fee3688f6a973f90e504d853f2a3",
"manifest.yaml": "d8de23091b094a590d38988ac7e4339a24b6625b43c8aca723e24e3e98271848",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "645eaba870e709a87c2073c78ef54cb656c15c6a6cb3ba3cbd874cbd3502ba88",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "a5daa3a00a65bc5616f5673c83ea091228eb1d3660fdcd95f48b69ef9923db0a",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "6e90ba02b8495400981189196fb9fc65a25d782202c59212e116563e474e8e6f",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "3fa65aab5fc7aa516093db1f7966700af3ea1a974dd1461e8d521a25176967e1",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "f8661a1f22c3ab27b6e7f7af8d1e361af5daabbc63dae2398e2764e653ba7b23",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "60f20f2de0b1a5e8b1fd05ac98f6635a98e0ea356a43b7ecd6ed3a8cdbdcf2df",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "c86dfbb217e032991acc64cd3d0bcbb7f26d32639a67b7473af5122ac2230431",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-02-1W
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Gold and silver combined strong prior relative trends with sharp one-week selloffs driven by rate repricing, while live Middle East escalation, Hormuz shipping risk, and a heavy inflation-data calendar inside the window give clear reversal catalysts; both are labeled overreaction with 55%+ beat odds. Oil ranks third on supported geopolitical continuation but is intentionally ineligible under the deterministic rule, so its slot defaults to SPY, limiting concentration.
Renewed US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz incidents drove crude sharply higher while rising yields (10y near 4.79%, 66% implied odds of a September Fed hike) pressured equities for a third straight session. Gold and silver fell hard despite escalating geopolitical risk and prior strong uptrends, which looks like a temporary rate-driven overreaction given the live safe-haven catalyst set (CPI Sept 11, PPI Sept 10, payrolls Sept 4) inside the window.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Rapid Middle East de-escalation would reverse oil gains and remove the safe-haven bid for gold and silver",
"Hot CPI/PPI or strong payrolls could push real yields higher, extending the precious-metals drawdown",
"A confirmed September Fed hike repricing could hit all high-beta assets and drag SPY-relative comparisons",
"Silver's 40% volatility makes the one-week outcome distribution very wide"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Gold fell more than 2% to a two-week low despite renewed US strikes on Iran and Hormuz shipping incidents",
"Prior 16-session active return +13.75% with top-decile quality score 0.763",
"Safe-haven catalysts inside window: payrolls Sept 4, PPI Sept 10, CPI Sept 11"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-7.73% weekly drop after +17.71% prior active run; deepest recent pullback rank 1.000",
"Quality evidence score 0.762 with strong prior trend; geopolitical escalation supports precious metals",
"High 40% vol gives wide but positively skewed reversal distribution"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Renewed US strikes on Iran and Hormuz vessel incidents on Sept 1; WTI first close above $90 in a month",
"OPEC+ meeting Sept 6 and EIA STEO Sept 9 inside window",
"Already +12.31% active in 5 sessions; large give-back risk if de-escalation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.95 with +4.74% active week and low 11.8% vol",
"Near-zero SPY beta offers diversification in a hike-risk week"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.74% active week on strong AI hardware demand (Nvidia DC revenue +117%, Dell AI servers +100%)",
"Only -1.6% from 52w high but beta 2.36 into a rate-risk week with Broadcom results pending"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.762 with +5.16% prior active trend and modest -2.28% pullback",
"No specific in-window catalyst; higher rates a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.21% week amid rising yields and Fed hike odds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"July retail sales -0.6%, real PCE flat, saving rate 3.0%",
"Higher oil prices and possible Fed hike squeeze consumers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Mild -1.61% active pullback after +22.59% prior run",
"Rising yields and hike odds are headwinds for high-beta risk assets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest vol in universe at 53.8% into a Fed-risk week",
"+30.73% prior active run leaves crowded positioning"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active trend already negative (-1.55%) before the -4.22% week",
"ISM manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.6 from 55.6; construction spending -0.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Negative prior active trend, -14.11% from 52w high, lowest-tier quality score 0.316",
"Beta 1.94 into a rate-risk week"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active trend also negative (-3.70%), quality score 0.335 despite live geopolitical escalation",
"-10.96% drawdown suggests weakness not purely price overreaction"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"SILVER": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"GOLD",
"SILVER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Renewed US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz incidents drove crude sharply higher while rising yields (10y near 4.79%, 66% implied odds of a September Fed hike) pressured equities for a third straight session. Gold and silver fell hard despite escalating geopolitical risk and prior strong uptrends, which looks like a temporary rate-driven overreaction given the live safe-haven catalyst set (CPI Sept 11, PPI Sept 10, payrolls Sept 4) inside the window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"GOLD",
"SILVER",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Gold and silver combined strong prior relative trends with sharp one-week selloffs driven by rate repricing, while live Middle East escalation, Hormuz shipping risk, and a heavy inflation-data calendar inside the window give clear reversal catalysts; both are labeled overreaction with 55%+ beat odds. Oil ranks third on supported geopolitical continuation but is intentionally ineligible under the deterministic rule, so its slot defaults to SPY, limiting concentration.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Renewed US-Iran strikes and Strait of Hormuz incidents drove crude sharply higher while rising yields (10y near 4.79%, 66% implied odds of a September Fed hike) pressured equities for a third straight session. Gold and silver fell hard despite escalating geopolitical risk and prior strong uptrends, which looks like a temporary rate-driven overreaction given the live safe-haven catalyst set (CPI Sept 11, PPI Sept 10, payrolls Sept 4) inside the window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29663,
"latency_seconds": 43.44685397099238,
"output_tokens": 3649,
"total_tokens": 33312
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
The clearest mispricing is the one-week precious-metals flush against a strong prior trend with no offsetting fundamental change: inflation is re-accelerating and geopolitical risk is live, so silver and gold get the reversal nod. Materials adds a lower-volatility quality pullback with expansionary manufacturing support. Recent momentum leaders oil and Taiwan are ranked as no-edge continuation because their move is event-driven and faces OPEC+ and payroll catalysts inside the window.
Rates are rising with a 66% implied probability of a September hike, inflation is re-accelerating (CPI 3.4%, PCE 3.7%, euro-area 3.3%), and oil has spiked on Strait of Hormuz disruption. Equities fell three sessions in a row with only 25% of assets positive over five days, while the prior month was broadly positive. That mix argues for a partial unwind of the sharp precious-metals flush (silver -7.7%, gold -5.8% in a week against a strongly positive prior trend and no fundamental change) and against chasing the oil/Taiwan momentum into OPEC+ and heavy macro prints. Cross-sectional dispersion of 2.75% is elevated, so selective reversal beats broad beta.
{
"confidence": 0.5667,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish September repricing after ADP, payrolls, and CPI could push real yields higher and extend the gold and silver decline.",
"OPEC+ supply news or Hormuz de-escalation could reverse the energy shock and drag broad commodity and materials sentiment.",
"Silver's 40% volatility means a single adverse session can dominate the one-week excess return.",
"Broad equity beta rebound would let SPY outperform low-beta and defensive commodity positions.",
"Only four scoring sessions plus a holiday-shortened week reduces the chance mean reversion completes."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-7.73% week versus +17.71% prior-window active return",
"Highest recent-pullback rank (1.00) with top-decile prior trend, quality score 0.762",
"Inflation re-acceleration and Hormuz risk unchanged by the price flush"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Fell more than 2% to a two-week low on Sept 1; -6.46% weekly active",
"Prior 16-session active +13.75%, quality score 0.763",
"CPI on Sept 11 and geopolitical escalation inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 44,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.28% weekly active after +5.16% prior-window active",
"Quality score 0.762 with modest 16.6% vol and shallow -2.98% drawdown",
"ISM Manufacturing 54.6% still expansionary for an eighth month"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.60% weekly active, volume z -1.25",
"July retail sales -0.6% and saving rate 3.0% weigh on the consumer"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.38% week versus +22.59% prior-window active",
"38.6% below 52-week high with rising real yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.95, at 52-week high, low 11.8% vol",
"Low SPY correlation of 0.14 provides diversification"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+6.74% weekly active, near 52-week high, beta 2.36",
"Nvidia and Dell AI datacenter growth supports the chip chain, but crowding risk into Broadcom print"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+12.31% weekly active; US crude first close above $90 in a month",
"EIA assumed Hormuz flows gradually increasing in September; OPEC+ meets Sept 6",
"45.8% vol makes a give-back likely if de-escalation headlines appear"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.96% weekly active and -1.55% prior-window active, so no supportive prior trend",
"Prior active rank only 0.119"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"53.8% horizon vol, 49% below 52-week high",
"Prior active +30.73% but rising rates pressure risk assets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, -1.21% over three sessions",
"Lowest vol at 9.52% among equity candidates"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -3.70% and lowest prior-trend rank 0.015",
"-10.96% drawdown with 23.6% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Beta 1.94 with -7.93% drawdown and -14.11% from 52-week high",
"Prior active -0.75%, quality score 0.316"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"MATERIALS": 30,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Rates are rising with a 66% implied probability of a September hike, inflation is re-accelerating (CPI 3.4%, PCE 3.7%, euro-area 3.3%), and oil has spiked on Strait of Hormuz disruption. Equities fell three sessions in a row with only 25% of assets positive over five days, while the prior month was broadly positive. That mix argues for a partial unwind of the sharp precious-metals flush (silver -7.7%, gold -5.8% in a week against a strongly positive prior trend and no fundamental change) and against chasing the oil/Taiwan momentum into OPEC+ and heavy macro prints. Cross-sectional dispersion of 2.75% is elevated, so selective reversal beats broad beta.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"MATERIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The clearest mispricing is the one-week precious-metals flush against a strong prior trend with no offsetting fundamental change: inflation is re-accelerating and geopolitical risk is live, so silver and gold get the reversal nod. Materials adds a lower-volatility quality pullback with expansionary manufacturing support. Recent momentum leaders oil and Taiwan are ranked as no-edge continuation because their move is event-driven and faces OPEC+ and payroll catalysts inside the window.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Rates are rising with a 66% implied probability of a September hike, inflation is re-accelerating (CPI 3.4%, PCE 3.7%, euro-area 3.3%), and oil has spiked on Strait of Hormuz disruption. Equities fell three sessions in a row with only 25% of assets positive over five days, while the prior month was broadly positive. That mix argues for a partial unwind of the sharp precious-metals flush (silver -7.7%, gold -5.8% in a week against a strongly positive prior trend and no fundamental change) and against chasing the oil/Taiwan momentum into OPEC+ and heavy macro prints. Cross-sectional dispersion of 2.75% is elevated, so selective reversal beats broad beta.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29663,
"latency_seconds": 38.67102119594347,
"output_tokens": 3406,
"total_tokens": 33069
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio favors assets with strong recent momentum supported by fundamental catalysts (OIL) and high-quality assets that have experienced a recent pullback (GOLD, SILVER). The broad market is facing headwinds, making these specific opportunities more attractive.
The market is experiencing a broad pullback, with major indexes down for three consecutive days. Economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI down but still expanding, and job openings little changed. Inflation data shows moderate increases. The upcoming week has significant catalysts, including the ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, and the August Employment Situation, which could drive volatility.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could escalate or de-escalate rapidly, impacting oil prices.",
"Upcoming employment data (ADP, Employment Situation) could surprise the market, leading to increased volatility and potential shifts in interest rate expectations."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Brent crude rose 4.6% to settle at $94.65 per barrel.",
"U.S. crude rose 5.2% to settle at $90.22, its first close above $90 in more than a month.",
"Associated Press reported renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets and Iranian missile and drone responses on September 1."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Reuters reported that gold fell more than 2% to a two-week low.",
"Gold has a high quality evidence score of 0.763."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Silver has a recent return of -7.73%.",
"Silver has a high quality evidence score of 0.762."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Industrials Sector has a recent return of -4.22%.",
"Industrial production and manufacturing production each increased 0.2% in July."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Materials Sector has a recent return of -2.98%.",
"Materials has a high quality evidence score of 0.762."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Consumer Discretionary Sector has a recent return of -2.19%.",
"Advance July retail and food-services sales were $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Aerospace and Defense has a recent return of -4.62%.",
"Aerospace and Defense has a low quality evidence score of 0.335."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Taiwan Equities has a recent return of 3.15%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Agriculture Commodities has a recent return of 3.15%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"US Momentum Equities has a recent return of -2.46%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Bitcoin ETF has a recent return of -3.38%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Ethereum ETF has a recent return of -3.39%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"On September 1, the S&P 500 fell 0.7% to 7,631.47."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"INDUSTRIALS": 30,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"GOLD",
"SILVER",
"INDUSTRIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a broad pullback, with major indexes down for three consecutive days. Economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI down but still expanding, and job openings little changed. Inflation data shows moderate increases. The upcoming week has significant catalysts, including the ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, and the August Employment Situation, which could drive volatility.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"GOLD",
"SILVER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 4: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio favors assets with strong recent momentum supported by fundamental catalysts (OIL) and high-quality assets that have experienced a recent pullback (GOLD, SILVER). The broad market is facing headwinds, making these specific opportunities more attractive.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a broad pullback, with major indexes down for three consecutive days. Economic data is mixed, with manufacturing PMI down but still expanding, and job openings little changed. Inflation data shows moderate increases. The upcoming week has significant catalysts, including the ADP employment report, ISM Services PMI, and the August Employment Situation, which could drive volatility.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 20298,
"latency_seconds": 22.655405346071348,
"output_tokens": 2881,
"total_tokens": 23179
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Healthcare offers defensive relative strength, materials combines a strong prior trend with a high-quality pullback, and gold presents a sharp reversal setup supported by geopolitical and inflation risk. Their distinct exposures are preferable to chasing oil or Taiwan after large gains.
High cross-sectional dispersion, weak equity breadth, rising yields, and an oil-driven inflation shock favor selective pullback reversals over broad risk taking; major labor and inflation releases create substantial one-week event risk.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Stronger-than-expected employment, PPI, or CPI data could push yields and the dollar higher, hurting gold and broader equities.",
"A rapid de-escalation around Iran or normalization of Hormuz shipping could reverse commodity and inflation-sensitive trades.",
"Broadcom results and technology-weighted index moves could cause SPY to outperform defensive and materials exposures.",
"The short scoring window and Labor Day closure amplify gap risk and reduce time for pullback reversals to develop."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 16-session active return was 6.96% versus recent active underperformance of 1.53%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.730, supported by strong prior-trend and pullback ranks.",
"Its 63-session SPY correlation was -0.137, providing defensiveness around labor and inflation releases."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.762 with prior-active and pullback ranks of 0.851 and 0.881.",
"Recent active return was -2.28% after a prior 16-session active gain of 5.16%.",
"Manufacturing PMI remained expansionary at 54.6 while the prices subindex was 71.1."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Gold underperformed SPY by 6.46% recently after a prior active gain of 13.75%.",
"Its quality score was 0.763 and recent-pullback rank was 0.985.",
"Renewed Iran conflict and elevated inflation provide support, although rising yields and the dollar remain headwinds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Silver's recent active loss was 6.52% after a prior active gain of 17.71%.",
"Quality evidence was 0.762 with the highest recent-pullback rank in the universe.",
"Its 40.39% volatility and 1.84 SPY beta make the reversal highly uncertain."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 4.74% with an unusually high 1.947 volume z-score.",
"Prior active return was also positive at 1.78%.",
"Low SPY correlation of 0.136 limits dependence on broad equity direction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 22.59% before recent underperformance of 1.61%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.744.",
"Volatility was 40.25%, leaving substantial downside around macro releases."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were both strong at 6.74% and 5.93%.",
"It was only 1.60% below its 52-week high.",
"High 2.36 SPY beta and weak pullback rank increase reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 30.73%, the strongest on the slate, before recent underperformance of 1.45%.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.716.",
"Its 53.80% volatility is the slate's highest and reduces confidence in a one-week rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark.",
"SPY declined over the recent window amid three consecutive down sessions.",
"Upcoming employment, PPI, and CPI releases create two-sided index risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 12.31% amid renewed Iran conflict and constrained Hormuz transit assumptions.",
"The September 6 OPEC+ meeting is an in-window catalyst.",
"Brent settled above EIA's conditional third-quarter forecast while oil volatility reached 45.77%, increasing reversal risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -2.60%, but prior active strength was only 0.82%.",
"July retail sales fell 0.6% and real PCE was approximately flat.",
"Higher Treasury yields and the oil-price surge pressure rate-sensitive household spending."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active underperformance of 2.96% followed prior active underperformance of 1.55%.",
"Construction spending fell 0.5% and housing starts dropped 12.4%.",
"Manufacturing PMI remained above 50, limiting but not reversing the weak relative trend."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Both recent and prior active returns were negative at -0.81% and -0.75%.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.316.",
"A -1.280 volume z-score and 1.94 beta provide little support for a clean rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent and prior active returns were both negative at -2.86% and -3.70%.",
"The fund was 10.96% below its 52-week high and had a low 0.335 quality score.",
"Iran-related conflict is a potential catalyst but has not yet offset persistent relative weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 30,
"HEALTHCARE": 35,
"MATERIALS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"MATERIALS",
"GOLD"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "High cross-sectional dispersion, weak equity breadth, rising yields, and an oil-driven inflation shock favor selective pullback reversals over broad risk taking; major labor and inflation releases create substantial one-week event risk.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"HEALTHCARE",
"MATERIALS",
"GOLD"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Healthcare offers defensive relative strength, materials combines a strong prior trend with a high-quality pullback, and gold presents a sharp reversal setup supported by geopolitical and inflation risk. Their distinct exposures are preferable to chasing oil or Taiwan after large gains.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "High cross-sectional dispersion, weak equity breadth, rising yields, and an oil-driven inflation shock favor selective pullback reversals over broad risk taking; major labor and inflation releases create substantial one-week event risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17033,
"latency_seconds": 38.45317794394214,
"output_tokens": 3169,
"reasoning_tokens": 809,
"total_tokens": 20202
}
}xai-grok-4-3
OIL leads on oil price surge continuation; TAIWAN and AGRICULTURE show supported positive returns; no overreaction-labeled candidates meet 55% threshold for non-SPY inclusion.
Oil price surge supports energy continuation while metals show pullbacks after prior gains; equities mixed with broad index declines.
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Oil price reversal after sharp move",
"Geopolitical escalation in Strait of Hormuz",
"FOMC policy surprise on September 15",
"Broad equity volatility from labor data"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"US crude rose 5.2% to $90.22",
"Brent crude rose 4.6%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 4.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 72,
"p_top3_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 3.15% vs SPY -1.21%",
"prior active 5.93%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"p_top3_pct": 52,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return 3.15%",
"volume z 1.95"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY return -1.21%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.38%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.39%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.762",
"prior active 5.16%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent pullback rank 0.940",
"quality score 0.604"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"gold fell more than 2%",
"quality evidence score 0.763"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.762",
"prior active 17.71%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return -4.22%",
"quality score 0.425"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return -4.62%",
"quality score 0.335"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return -2.46%",
"quality score 0.316"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SILVER": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 72,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Oil price surge supports energy continuation while metals show pullbacks after prior gains; equities mixed with broad index declines.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"AGRICULTURE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 10: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "OIL leads on oil price surge continuation; TAIWAN and AGRICULTURE show supported positive returns; no overreaction-labeled candidates meet 55% threshold for non-SPY inclusion.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Oil price surge supports energy continuation while metals show pullbacks after prior gains; equities mixed with broad index declines.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17238,
"latency_seconds": 28.44018643104937,
"output_tokens": 1817,
"reasoning_tokens": 608,
"total_tokens": 19663
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction edges are quality-supported overreactions in silver and gold after multi-week strength then sharp weekly shocks, followed by materials; oil and Taiwan show continuation but fail the strict overreaction+55% eligibility filter for non-SPY slots, so residual capital defaults to SPY under the deterministic rule.
Equities posted a third down day with rising yields and 66% September hike odds; oil surged on Hormuz/geopolitical reports while gold/silver sold off sharply after strong priors; labor and ISM data plus OPEC+ sit inside the one-week window, favoring selective mean-reversion in high-quality pullbacks over pure momentum continuation.
{
"confidence": 0.5867,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 4 Employment Situation and Fed hike odds could extend equity and rate pressure",
"OPEC+ Sept 6 and Hormuz developments may reverse oil or amplify commodity vol",
"Broadcom results and ISM Services on Sept 2-3 can swing tech-adjacent risk appetite",
"Labor Day holiday thins liquidity into the exit window"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"recent return -7.73% with prior active +17.71% and quality score 0.762",
"horizon vol 40.39% and max drawdown exactly matching the weekly drop",
"volume z near neutral at 0.12"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent return -5.81% after prior active +13.75% and quality 0.763",
"Reuters noted gold fell >2% to two-week low with dollar near 99.64",
"lower beta 0.96 vs silver"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.762 with strong prior active rank 0.851 and pullback rank 0.881",
"recent -2.98% active -2.28% after prior +5.16%",
"horizon vol moderate 16.60%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +8.45% active +12.31% with Brent at $94.65 and US crude >$90",
"geopolitical reports of strikes and Hormuz incidents on Sept 1",
"OPEC+ meeting Sept 6 inside window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +3.15% active +6.74% after prior active +5.93%",
"distance to 52w high only -1.60%",
"high beta 2.36 but positive short-term momentum"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +3.15% active +4.74% with volume z 1.95",
"low corr 0.14 and vol 11.78%",
"at 52w high distance 0.00%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -2.19% active -2.60% quality 0.604",
"volume z -1.25 indicating dislocation",
"prior active modest +0.82%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -3.38% after prior active +22.59% quality 0.744",
"vol 40.25% drawdown limited to -3.38%",
"low SPY corr 0.38"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -3.39% after extreme prior active +30.73% quality 0.716",
"highest vol 53.80% among slate",
"beta 1.88"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -4.22% active -2.96% after weak prior -1.55%",
"quality score only 0.425",
"ISM manufacturing still expansionary at 54.6"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -4.62% and max drawdown -10.96%",
"quality 0.335 lowest among pullbacks",
"geopolitical news flow mixed for defense"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -2.46% volume z -1.28 quality only 0.316",
"high vol 23.63% and drawdown -7.93%",
"prior active also negative"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark recent -1.21% vol 9.52%",
"third consecutive daily decline reported",
"positive asset share 5s only 24.64%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"MATERIALS": 30,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Equities posted a third down day with rising yields and 66% September hike odds; oil surged on Hormuz/geopolitical reports while gold/silver sold off sharply after strong priors; labor and ISM data plus OPEC+ sit inside the one-week window, favoring selective mean-reversion in high-quality pullbacks over pure momentum continuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"MATERIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction edges are quality-supported overreactions in silver and gold after multi-week strength then sharp weekly shocks, followed by materials; oil and Taiwan show continuation but fail the strict overreaction+55% eligibility filter for non-SPY slots, so residual capital defaults to SPY under the deterministic rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Equities posted a third down day with rising yields and 66% September hike odds; oil surged on Hormuz/geopolitical reports while gold/silver sold off sharply after strong priors; labor and ISM data plus OPEC+ sit inside the one-week window, favoring selective mean-reversion in high-quality pullbacks over pure momentum continuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18269,
"latency_seconds": 37.841957974014804,
"output_tokens": 2247,
"reasoning_tokens": 240,
"total_tokens": 20756
}
}xai-grok-4-6
The only slate names that combine a genuine recent overshoot with at least a modest chance of beating SPY are silver, gold, and materials after sharp pullbacks from strong prior trends. Oil has the strongest narrative but is already extended, while high-beta continuation names (Taiwan, crypto, momentum) and weak consumer/industrial prints do not clear a one-week excess-return bar versus SPY into payrolls and CPI.
SPY is in a three-session decline into a dense labor/inflation week with rising Treasury yields, while oil jumped on Hormuz-related supply news and precious metals sold off after strong prior-window gains. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) but 21-session breadth remains majority-positive, so the week is mixed continuation in energy versus pullback/reversal tests in metals and cyclicals.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 4 Employment Situation and September 11 CPI can extend the equity and duration selloff, dragging even oversold cyclicals.",
"Hormuz/oil news and the September 6 OPEC+ meeting can reverse oil or further strengthen the dollar, delaying a metals bounce.",
"Silver and gold 21s volatilities near 30–40% can produce large negative excess versus SPY even if the overreaction thesis is directionally right."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -7.73% versus prior active +17.71% with quality evidence score 0.762 and recent pullback rank 1.000.",
"Horizon vol 40.39% and 52w-high distance -45.15% imply a large, high-beta shock rather than a completed trend.",
"Gold also sold off more than 2% as the dollar index traded near 99.64, a common co-move that can reverse if yields stabilize inside the week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly return -5.81% and active 5s -6.46% after prior active +13.75%, with quality evidence score 0.763.",
"Reuters reported gold fell more than 2% to a two-week low while the dollar was firm and the 10-year yield closed near 4.79%.",
"Beta to SPY near 0.96 and lower vol than silver make a bounce more plausible than a full industrial-demand collapse over one week."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.762 with prior active rank 0.851 and recent pullback rank 0.881 after weekly -2.98%.",
"ISM manufacturing PMI remained expansionary at 54.6% with prices paid 71.1, consistent with materials not facing a sudden demand collapse.",
"SPY beta 0.60 and max drawdown only -2.98% over the horizon limit downside versus high-beta cyclicals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO weekly +8.45% and 5s active +12.31% as U.S. crude closed $90.22 and Brent $94.65 after Hormuz-related security reports.",
"Negative SPY correlation (-0.34) can help beat SPY if equities stay weak into jobs/CPI.",
"EIA August forecast still assumed lower Q3/Q4 Brent and OPEC+ meets September 6, so the already-large move can fade."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -4.22% with recent pullback rank 0.970 after a modest prior-window underperformance.",
"ISM manufacturing stayed above 50 for an eighth month and July industrial production rose 0.2%.",
"Housing starts and construction spending declined, so the bounce is not strongly supported."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -4.62% and 21s max drawdown -10.96% with quality score only 0.335.",
"Briefing noted renewed U.S.-Iran strikes and Hormuz vessel incidents, a potential defense-demand catalyst.",
"Low prior-active rank 0.015 shows the drop is not a high-quality pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +3.15% and 5s active +6.74% after prior active +5.93%, near a 52w high (-1.60%).",
"SPY beta 2.36 and corr 0.78 make it a leveraged equity bet into a jobs/CPI week.",
"Nvidia and AMD declined on September 1, a near-term headwind for semiconductor-linked Taiwan."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly +3.15% with volume z 1.95 and distance to 52w high 0.00%.",
"Low SPY beta 0.13 can diversify but does not create a one-week excess-return edge.",
"Quality evidence score 0.490 with recent pullback rank only 0.060."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -2.19% and 5s active -2.60% with volume z -1.25.",
"July retail sales fell 0.6% and real PCE was essentially flat, with saving rate 3.0%.",
"Amazon fell 1.9% on September 1 as a large discretionary weight."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -3.38% after prior active +22.59% with quality score 0.744.",
"Horizon vol 40.25% and 52w-high distance -38.62% leave a wide one-week range versus SPY.",
"No in-window crypto-specific catalyst is supplied; risk-off equity tape is the main driver."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -3.39% after prior active +30.73% with the highest prior-active rank (1.000) but lowest low-vol rank (0.000).",
"Horizon vol 53.80% and 52w-high distance -49.06% dominate any mean-reversion case over one week.",
"SPY beta 1.88 raises co-drawdown risk into September 4 payrolls."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Weekly -2.46% with volume z -1.28, quality score 0.316, and 52w-high distance -14.11%.",
"SPY beta 1.94 and 21s vol 23.63% make it a high-beta lagging factor, not a clean reversal.",
"Prior 16s active return was already negative (-0.75%)."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY weekly -1.21% with 21s vol 9.52% and max drawdown -2.07%.",
"September 1 was a third consecutive decline for major indexes after August gains.",
"Scoring window includes payrolls, ISM Services, and later CPI, so the benchmark is the default if no clean overreaction edge holds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"TAIWAN",
"MATERIALS",
"AGRICULTURE",
"MOMENTUM",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"GOLD": 35,
"MATERIALS": 30,
"SILVER": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AGRICULTURE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"MATERIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is in a three-session decline into a dense labor/inflation week with rising Treasury yields, while oil jumped on Hormuz-related supply news and precious metals sold off after strong prior-window gains. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) but 21-session breadth remains majority-positive, so the week is mixed continuation in energy versus pullback/reversal tests in metals and cyclicals.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SILVER",
"GOLD",
"MATERIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "MATERIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The only slate names that combine a genuine recent overshoot with at least a modest chance of beating SPY are silver, gold, and materials after sharp pullbacks from strong prior trends. Oil has the strongest narrative but is already extended, while high-beta continuation names (Taiwan, crypto, momentum) and weak consumer/industrial prints do not clear a one-week excess-return bar versus SPY into payrolls and CPI.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is in a three-session decline into a dense labor/inflation week with rising Treasury yields, while oil jumped on Hormuz-related supply news and precious metals sold off after strong prior-window gains. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) but 21-session breadth remains majority-positive, so the week is mixed continuation in energy versus pullback/reversal tests in metals and cyclicals.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-02-1W",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18411,
"latency_seconds": 46.31353981606662,
"output_tokens": 2832,
"reasoning_tokens": 669,
"total_tokens": 21912
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Gold (IAU)35%Silver (SLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Silver (SLV)35%Gold (IAU)35%Materials Sector (XLB)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Gold (IAU)35%Silver (SLV)35%Industrials Sector (XLI)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Healthcare Sector (XLV)35%Materials Sector (XLB)35%Gold (IAU)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Silver (SLV)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Silver (SLV)35%Gold (IAU)35%Materials Sector (XLB)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Silver (SLV)35%Gold (IAU)35%Materials Sector (XLB)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 27964a4e4b19...d853f2a3 |
| manifest.yaml | d8de23091b09...98271848 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 645eaba870e7...3502ba88 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | a5daa3a00a65...9923db0a |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 6e90ba02b849...474e8e6f |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 3fa65aab5fc7...176967e1 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | f8661a1f22c3...53ba7b23 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 60f20f2de0b1...dbdcf2df |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | c86dfbb217e0...c2230431 |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |