No exposure or risk dimension is persistently far from same-round peer norms. Portfolios averaged 2.2 holdings, a 62.3% largest position, and 54.5% turnover.
Moderate evidence · based on 46 saved portfolios.Grok 4.6
xai-grok-4-6
Portfolio pattern Peer-balanced allocator No exposure or risk dimension is persistently far from same-round peer norms. Portfolios averaged 2.2 holdings, a 62.3% largest position, and 54.5% turnover.How Does This Model Tend To Invest?
Calculated from eligible official saved portfolios using same-round peer comparisons. How labels and pills are determined
How different is this portfolio from the group?
A score of 59.1 means about 59.1% of allocation would need to change to match the average portfolio selected by the other models.
Compare every modelDoes this model follow recent winners?
Leans toward recent laggards. Combined gives monthly and weekly behavior equal weight. The score uses only prices available before each portfolio was frozen.
How the model builds its shortlist
Candidate-ledger evidence is available for 2 of 46 eligible portfolios. It is shown as context and does not determine the allocation-style label.
Growth
Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.
What Is This Model Holding Now?
15 open portfolios across weekly and monthly tests. Completed rounds are excluded.
How Are Its Open Portfolios Doing?
Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.
- Portfolio
- -0.28%
- S&P 500
- -0.28%
- Portfolio Minus S&P 500
- 0.00 pp
- Portfolio
- -0.29%
- S&P 500
- +0.69%
- Portfolio Minus S&P 500
- -0.98 pp
See all 15 open round returns
How Has This Model Performed?
Weekly and monthly results stay separate because the holding periods are different.
2 wins / 22 completed
0 wins / 9 completed
When Did It Beat The S&P 500?
Bars to the right beat the S&P 500. Bars to the left trailed it.
Where Does It Rank Against Comparable Models?
Each group uses only rounds completed by every included model.
See every comparison group 8
Sep 4, 2026 roster
Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 4 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
Current Weekly Benchmark
CapitalBench Score
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Average Return Details
Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Aug 19, 2026 roster
Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 19 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
Current Monthly Benchmark
CapitalBench Score
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Average Return Details
Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Aug 19, 2026 roster
Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 19 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
Weekly Qualified Comparison Set
CapitalBench Score
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Average Return Details
Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Aug 13, 2026 roster
Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 13 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
Monthly Qualified Comparison Set
CapitalBench Score
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Average Return Details
Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Sep 3, 2026 roster
Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 3 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
Weekly Benchmark Forming
CapitalBench Score
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Average Return Details
Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Aug 13, 2026 roster
Weekly comparison set automatically opened when the Aug 13 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 8 models.
Weekly Benchmark Forming
CapitalBench Score
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation
Average Return Details
Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.
Sep 4, 2026 roster
Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 4 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
Sep 3, 2026 roster
Monthly comparison set automatically opened when the Sep 3 official roster first required a new equal-run benchmark group across 7 models.
What Has CapitalBench Learned About Grok 4.6?
Findings tied directly to this model's decisions or completed results.
Model allocation styles are separating into clear behavior profiles
GPT-5.5 has the highest average risk-taking score at 79.7/100. Grok 4.6 has the largest average top holding at +62.28%. Claude Opus 4.8 has the lowest measured turnover at +43.35%.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
- Highest Average Risk Taking Score
- 79.7/100
- Largest Average Top Holding
- +62.3%
- Lowest Average Turnover
- +43.4%
Grok 4.6's result was driven by S&P 500
In the latest weekly result, S&P 500 contributed +0.60% to Grok 4.6's portfolio. No holding detracted from the portfolio in this one-holding attribution view.
Attribution multiplies each frozen holding's weight by its asset return to show what helped or hurt the model portfolio.
- Largest Positive Contribution
- +0.60%
- Smallest Positive Contribution
- +0.60%
Grok 4.6 has the strongest current weekly recent-winner tilt
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 3.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
- Leader Recent Winner Tilt Score
- 50.0/100
- Leader Top Recent Winner Quintile Allocation
- 0.00%
- Leader Peer Delta
- 28.6
What Did It Choose In Each Round?
Open a row to see the full portfolio, rationale, and audit files.
CB-2026-09-21-1W official-v3-20260921-weekly weekly 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-28 SP500 100.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 21-session vol while equal-weight and most assets lag; 10-year yield at 5.00% and flat industrial production favor a narrow, rate-sensitive week rather than a broad reversal or high-beta continuation.
CB-2026-09-21-1M official-v3-20260921-monthly monthly 2026-09-21 to 2026-10-21 SP500 65.0%BIOTECH 35.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high with a roughly flat week while equal-weight and most assets lagged, 10-year yields are at 5%, industrial production is unchanged, and leadership is concentrated in a few high-beta growth and crypto names versus cyclicals that sold off. One-month edge versus SPY is limited and mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
CB-2026-09-16-1W official-v3-20260916-weekly weekly 2026-09-17 to 2026-09-24 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
Hawkish unanimous 25bp hike with higher 2026 inflation and funds-rate medians, weak 5-session breadth (14.5% positive), and only 2.37% active-return dispersion favor the benchmark over high-beta shock names for a one-week window.
CB-2026-09-16-1M official-v3-20260916-monthly-clean monthly 2026-09-17 to 2026-10-19 SMALL_VALUE 35.0%INDUSTRIALS 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 30.0% Pending
Hawkish unanimous 25bp hike with higher 2026 inflation and funds-rate medians, weak 5-session breadth (14.5% positive), and a modest SPY pullback create mixed one-month dynamics: quality pullbacks may mean-revert while high-beta growth, crypto, and solar remain rate- and vol-sensitive.
CB-2026-09-15-1W official-v3-20260915-weekly-clean weekly 2026-09-15 to 2026-09-22 TAIWAN 35.0%SOUTH_AFRICA 35.0%EMERGING_MARKETS 30.0% +1.73 pp
SPY is only mildly negative with very low 5-session active-return dispersion and weak breadth, while an unknown FOMC outcome hits mid-window. Shock-lane Asia/tech and metals sold off hard versus a still-positive prior active trend, so the week is mixed: possible mean-reversion in quality pullbacks versus event-driven continuation risk in oil and crypto.
CB-2026-09-15-1M official-v3-20260915-monthly monthly 2026-09-15 to 2026-10-15 SMALL_VALUE 35.0%SMALL_CAP 35.0%INDUSTRIALS 30.0% Pending
SPY is modestly lower into FOMC with very few assets positive over 5 sessions, oil and crypto showing short continuation while semis/industrials/small-caps show shock or quality pullbacks; one-month edge is mixed and event-dominated rather than a clean trend.
CB-2026-09-13-1W official-v3-20260913-weekly weekly 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-21 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 2.24% with just ~20% of assets positive, SPY is near a 52-week high, and the FOMC meeting plus inflation/sentiment prints dominate a one-week window. Oil shows independent continuation versus a slightly weaker equity tape; most shock-reversal names are high-vol pullbacks without in-window fundamental confirmation.
CB-2026-09-13-1M official-v3-20260913-monthly monthly 2026-09-14 to 2026-10-14 SP500 100.0% Pending
Breadth is weak with only about one-fifth of assets positive over 5 and 21 sessions, SPY is modestly negative into an FOMC week, CPI is 3.4% with rising Michigan inflation expectations, and oil remains elevated. That mix favors mixed reversal-versus-continuation rather than a clean one-month trend.
CB-2026-09-11-1W official-v3-20260911-weekly weekly 2026-09-11 to 2026-09-18 HEALTHCARE 35.0%DIVIDEND 35.0%BIOTECH 30.0% +0.63 pp
SPY is modestly lower with weak equal-weight breadth while PPI and energy prices jumped and CPI/FOMC sit inside the week; quality sectors sold off versus prior relative strength while oil/commodities already ran to highs, so the week is mixed reversal-versus-continuation rather than a clean trend.
CB-2026-09-11-1M official-v3-20260911-monthly monthly 2026-09-11 to 2026-10-12 SP500 100.0% Pending
Narrow equity weakness (SPY -0.96% 5s, RSP lagging, 21.7% positive share) coincides with a PPI goods/energy spike, ECB hike, 4.95% 10y, and a large oil continuation; breadth and rates argue against high-beta continuation while oil/crypto already stretched.
CB-2026-09-10-1W official-v3-20260910-weekly weekly 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-17 HEALTHCARE 35.0%CONSUMER_STAPLES 35.0%DIVIDEND 30.0% +0.12 pp
SPY is modestly weaker with 4.1-to-1 declining breadth into a CPI and FOMC week; oil and Korea show continuation while several quality defensives and software show short-horizon pullbacks. One-week edge versus SPY is limited by event risk and only moderate 5-session active-return dispersion.
CB-2026-09-10-1M official-v3-20260910-monthly monthly 2026-09-10 to 2026-10-12 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%INDUSTRIALS 30.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high after a weak 21-session stretch, equal-weight lagged, and 9/9 breadth was 4.1 decliners to 1. Upcoming CPI and FOMC sit inside the scoring window, so one-month outcomes are mixed between mega-cap continuation and mean-reversion in quality pullbacks.
CB-2026-09-09-1W official-v3-20260909-weekly weekly 2026-09-09 to 2026-09-16 SOFTWARE 35.0%CYBERSECURITY 35.0%SP500 30.0% +4.00 pp
SPY is within 1.53% of a 52-week high with 8.11% horizon vol while 5-session active-return dispersion is 2.30% and breadth on Sep 8 was negative. The week includes PPI, CPI, and an FOMC meeting on the exit date, so factor leadership is mixed: oil and Brazil show continuation, software/cyber show sharp relative pullbacks after prior strength.
CB-2026-09-09-1M official-v3-20260909-monthly monthly 2026-09-09 to 2026-10-09 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY 30.0% Pending
SPY is near highs with negative 5s/21s returns, mixed breadth, and a dense data/FOMC calendar inside the month. Oil shows a sharp short-horizon spike while several quality names show pullbacks; high-beta tech and crypto remain volatile versus a still-elevated 10y yield near 4.8%.
CB-2026-09-04-1W official-v3-20260904-weekly-clean weekly 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-15 SOFTWARE 35.0%CYBERSECURITY 35.0%SP500 30.0% +3.86 pp
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion while software and cyber show large relative pullbacks after strong prior active returns; CPI/PPI land inside the week and a 58% hike probability plus hawkish Fed dissent raise rate-sensitive risk, so the week is mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.
CB-2026-09-04-1M official-v3-20260904-monthly-clean monthly 2026-09-08 to 2026-10-08 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%INDUSTRIALS 30.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high with low horizon vol while cross-asset 5-session returns are wide (oil/crypto/EM vs software/cyber/defense). Sticky PCE, mixed payrolls with downward revisions, and 58% implied odds of a September hike plus a mid-window FOMC create a mixed one-month setup rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
CB-2026-09-03-1W official-v3-20260903-weekly weekly 2026-09-04 to 2026-09-14 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%METALS_MINING 35.0%SILVER 30.0% -0.76 pp
SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while 5s active-return dispersion is only 2.20% and equal-weight lags. The window includes unknown NFP (Sep 4) and CPI (Sep 11) plus Labor Day, so mega-cap beta is fragile. Oil and Brazil show short continuation after large moves; several high-quality names (cyber, metals, silver, biotech, semis) show sharp relative pullbacks after stronger prior windows.
CB-2026-09-03-1M official-v3-20260903-monthly monthly 2026-09-04 to 2026-10-05 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%SP500 30.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session gains while many cyclicals, tech, and defense names show larger recent drawdowns; incoming payrolls, CPI, and the mid-September FOMC create two-way event risk, so one-month outcomes look mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
CB-2026-09-02-1W official-v3-20260902-weekly weekly 2026-09-03 to 2026-09-11 SILVER 35.0%GOLD 35.0%MATERIALS 30.0% -2.20 pp
SPY is in a three-session decline into a dense labor/inflation week with rising Treasury yields, while oil jumped on Hormuz-related supply news and precious metals sold off after strong prior-window gains. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) but 21-session breadth remains majority-positive, so the week is mixed continuation in energy versus pullback/reversal tests in metals and cyclicals.
CB-2026-09-02-1M official-v3-20260902-monthly monthly 2026-09-03 to 2026-10-05 FINANCIALS 35.0%SMALL_VALUE 35.0%SP500 30.0% Pending
SPY is slightly lower after a three-day decline while crude spiked above $90, yields rose, and FedWatch priced a 66% chance of a September hike. Short-horizon breadth is weak (about 25% of assets positive over 5 sessions) against still-positive 21-session breadth, so oil continuation coexists with rate-sensitive and cyclical pullbacks rather than a single regime.
CB-2026-09-01-1W official-v3-20260901-weekly weekly 2026-09-02 to 2026-09-10 GOLD 35.0%HEALTHCARE 35.0%SILVER 30.0% -1.86 pp
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session active-return dispersion (1.92%) and only 39% of assets positive over 5 sessions after a stronger 21-session breadth. Sticky PCE/CPI, a hawkish Warsh speech, and the August jobs print on Sep 4 dominate a short holiday-shortened week; equal-weight lagged cap-weight, so mean-reversion in quality pullbacks is more plausible than chasing high-vol continuations.
CB-2026-09-01-1M official-v3-20260901-monthly monthly 2026-09-02 to 2026-10-02 SP500 100.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high after an August gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth was mixed on the latest session, and the one-month window includes FOMC plus CPI/payrolls with sticky PCE and a 4.75% 10-year. Mega-cap tech still has relative strength; rate-sensitive losers lack a clear in-window easing catalyst.
CB-2026-08-30-1W official-v3-20260830-weekly weekly 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-08 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.62% with 40.6% of assets positive versus 73.9% over 21 sessions, SPY is 1.1% from its 52-week high, and a hawkish Chair speech plus a jobs print and Labor Day close sit inside the week, so breadth is mixed and a one-week SPY-relative edge is thin.
CB-2026-08-30-1M official-v3-20260830-monthly monthly 2026-08-31 to 2026-09-30 SP500 100.0% Pending
SPY is within 1.1% of a 52-week high after a modest weekly gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth on the 5-session window is only ~41% positive, and a hawkish Fed speech plus a mid-September FOMC with SEP sit inside the scoring window. Rate-sensitive and high-beta names face event risk; recent losers lack a clean, supported one-month reversal catalyst.
CB-2026-08-27-1W official-v3-20260828-weekly weekly 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-04 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is near a 52-week high with mega-cap/Nasdaq leadership (NVDA print) while a majority of S&P names fell, equal-weight lagged, and 5-session active dispersion is only 2.38%. Labor softening and the Aug payrolls print on 2026-09-04 sit inside the scoring window, so one-week edges versus SPY are mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
CB-2026-08-27-1M official-v3-20260828-monthly monthly 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-28 SP500 100.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high with mega-cap/tech leadership while equal-weight and rate-sensitive defensives lag; inflation remains elevated, the Fed is on hold with hawkish dissent, and a dense September data/FOMC calendar argues against a clean one-month continuation or reversal regime.
CB-2026-08-26-1W official-v3-20260827-weekly weekly 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-03 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is near a 52-week high with low 5-session dispersion (~3%) after a quiet close; Jackson Hole and mixed inflation/labor prints dominate a one-week window more than single-theme continuation. Crypto volume spikes and metals prior strength coexist with oil/defense shocks, so edges versus SPY are modest.
CB-2026-08-26-1M official-v3-20260827-monthly monthly 2026-08-27 to 2026-09-28 SMALL_VALUE 35.0%REGIONAL_BANKS 35.0%REAL_ESTATE 30.0% Pending
SPY is near a 52-week high with a small 5-session dip while 21-session breadth is still mostly positive. Rate-sensitive and quality names show deeper recent active pullbacks than mega-cap beta, while crypto and oil remain high-vol after large prior moves. Jackson Hole and the September FOMC sit inside the window, so the one-month edge is mixed rather than a clean continuation or crash-reversal tape.
CB-2026-08-25-1W official-v3-20260825-weekly-clean weekly 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-02 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%ENERGY 30.0% -0.57 pp
SPY is near a 52-week high with modest 5-session weakness while 5s active-return dispersion is 5.10% and equal-weight led cap-weight. The slate mixes shock pullbacks in quality growth/defense/energy against stretched crypto and metals continuation, with Jackson Hole, GDP/PCE, oil inventories, and Nvidia results inside the week.
CB-2026-08-25-1M official-v3-20260825-monthly-clean monthly 2026-08-26 to 2026-09-25 AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%UTILITIES 35.0%SP500 30.0% -7.04 pp
SPY is within 1.54% of its 52-week high after a modest 5-session dip while 21-session breadth is still broad. Soft July payrolls, cooling confidence, and a packed September data/FOMC calendar favor mixed mean-reversion in shocked cyclicals over chasing crypto or high-beta continuation.
CB-2026-08-24-1W official-v3-20260824-weekly weekly 2026-08-25 to 2026-09-01 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY slipped while a majority of constituents and equal-weight beat it; 5-session active dispersion is elevated. Jackson Hole, GDP/PCE, and a large-cap semiconductor print sit inside the scoring week, so high-beta shock names can bounce or extend. Crypto already posted extreme short-window gains with very low quality scores.
CB-2026-08-24-1M official-v3-20260824-monthly monthly 2026-08-25 to 2026-09-25 UTILITIES 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0% -4.10 pp
SPY slipped 1.19% while equal-weight breadth was positive, rates eased slightly, and a hawkish FOMC dissent plus Jackson Hole and September FOMC sit inside the window. Cross-section is split between crypto short-horizon spikes and rate/tech shock pullbacks, so one-month outcomes are mixed rather than a clean trend or clean mean-reversion tape.
CB-2026-08-23-1W official-v3-20260823-weekly weekly 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-31 AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%CYBERSECURITY 35.0%REGIONAL_BANKS 30.0% +0.89 pp
SPY is only modestly off highs after a down week while 5-session active-return dispersion is elevated; crypto already ran hard, several quality names pulled back, and the window includes GDP/PCE plus NVIDIA results, so reversal and continuation can coexist.
CB-2026-08-23-1M official-v3-20260823-monthly monthly 2026-08-24 to 2026-09-24 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is only 1.56% off the 52-week high after a -1.37% 5-session dip while equal-weight led slightly; VIX futures stay contained, activity surveys are firm, but the September FOMC, sticky 3.4% CPI, and Gulf oil risk keep one-month leadership mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.
CB-2026-08-21-1W official-v3-20260821-weekly weekly 2026-08-21 to 2026-08-28 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 35.0%SOFTWARE 30.0% +2.01 pp
SPY finished the week lower with VIX still modest at 16 while 5-session active-return dispersion is 4.38% and only about 32% of assets were positive. High-beta growth names sold off after prior strength, crypto extended a short bounce, and rates drifted higher into a data-heavy week including NVIDIA after the close on Aug 26.
CB-2026-08-21-1M official-v3-20260821-monthly monthly 2026-08-21 to 2026-09-21 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY sold off ~2% into higher 10y yields (~4.70%), VIX 16, sticky CPI/PCE, and a September FOMC with minutes leaning hawkish if inflation stays elevated. Equal-weight beat cap-weight on the 5s/21s windows while only ~32% of assets were positive on 5s, so the month is a mixed pullback-plus-event window rather than a clean trend. High-beta tech/semis remain prior-strong but recently weak; oil strength is supply/geopolitics rather than a broad risk-on tape.
CB-2026-08-20-1W official-v3-20260820-weekly weekly 2026-08-20 to 2026-08-27 CYBERSECURITY 35.0%JAPAN 35.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 30.0% +1.80 pp
SPY is only modestly lower on the week with VIX still mid-teens, equal-weight outperforming, and 5-session active dispersion at 2.58%. Shock pullbacks in quality names sit next to stretched crypto continuation and a high-vol NVIDIA/Jackson Hole week, so the one-week pattern is mixed rather than a clean trend or crash bounce.
CB-2026-08-20-1M official-v3-20260820-monthly monthly 2026-08-20 to 2026-09-21 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is within about 1% of its 52-week high with VIX near 16, equal-weight outperforming, and a one-month window that includes Jackson Hole, August CPI/PPI, NVIDIA results, and the mid-September FOMC. Sticky inflation, a hawkish-leaning July minutes split, and cooling payrolls favor mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
CB-2026-08-19-1W official-v3-20260819-weekly weekly 2026-08-19 to 2026-08-26 MATERIALS 35.0%CYBERSECURITY 35.0%SP500 30.0% +0.35 pp
Five-session active-return dispersion is only 1.45% with 39% of assets positive, while SPY is modestly lower into a data-heavy week (FOMC minutes, retail, GDP second estimate). Energy/oil show short-horizon strength against a broader equity pullback; several materials/tech names show quality pullbacks rather than a single clean continuation regime.
CB-2026-08-19-1M official-v3-20260819-monthly monthly 2026-08-19 to 2026-09-18 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is only 1.34% off its 52-week high with low VIX after a modest 5-session dip. Soft July payrolls and housing contrast with still-elevated inflation, a 4.71%/5.28% 10y/30y curve, and a 9-3 FOMC hold with three hike dissenters. Breadth is mixed (39% positive over 5 sessions vs 73% over 21). Duration and high-beta clean-energy/EM shocks look two-sided into September CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC, so one-month edge versus SPY is limited.
CB-2026-08-18-1W official-v3-20260818-weekly weekly 2026-08-18 to 2026-08-25 CHINA 35.0%SOFTWARE 35.0%CYBERSECURITY 30.0% -1.23 pp
SPY is within 1% of its 52-week high after a flat 5-session return while 5-session active-return dispersion is only 2.37%. Soft July payrolls and retail sales sit against still-elevated inflation, a hold-from-the-FOMC, and a dense in-window data/earnings calendar, so one-week outcomes look mixed rather than a clean continuation or broad reversal.
CB-2026-08-18-1M official-v3-20260818-monthly-clean monthly 2026-08-18 to 2026-09-18 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is within 1% of its 52-week high after a modest 21-session gain while inflation is still above target, the FOMC is on hold with three dissenters preferring a hike, and September FOMC/CPI land inside the scoring window. Cross-section is mixed: energy and semis retain medium-horizon strength, several rate-sensitive and EM names show deep active drawdowns, and equal-weight versus cap-weight is not decisive.
CB-2026-08-15-1W official-v3-20260815-weekly-clean weekly 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-24 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is near a fresh high with only 2.17% 5-session active-return dispersion, mixed labor/inflation prints, and a data-and-FOMC-minutes week. Quality international pullbacks look cleaner than high-vol continuations or EM/crypto shocks, but none have a clear one-week catalyst edge versus the benchmark.
CB-2026-08-15-1M official-v3-20260815-monthly-clean monthly 2026-08-17 to 2026-09-17 SP500 100.0% 0.00 pp
SPY is near a fresh high with solid YTD gains while yields rose into a still-elevated inflation print, a divided FOMC hold, and a September FOMC inside the window. Breadth is mixed rather than one-way: equal-weight slightly led recently, oil and some cyclicals were strong, while duration, EM, solar, and crypto lagged. One-month edge versus SPY looks limited.
CB-2026-08-13-1W official-v2-2-all-weekly-20260813 weekly 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-20 HEALTHCARE 30.0%ENERGY 20.0%JAPAN 20.0%FINANCIALS 15.0%GOLD 15.0% +2.98 pp
SPY is treated as a modest positive but not the best weekly vehicle after an all-time high and a data-heavy week. Selected sleeves combine recent relative strength, quality ranks, and identifiable catalysts that can move prices before the August 20 close.
CB-2026-08-13-1M official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260813 monthly 2026-08-13 to 2026-09-14 ENERGY 30.0%HEALTHCARE 25.0%CYBERSECURITY 25.0%JAPAN 20.0% +3.09 pp
SPY is near a record with only a modest expected one-month gain. Energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, and Japan have stronger supplied continuation setups and higher bases, producing positive expected alpha versus SPY.