Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Claude Fable 5 is lowest at 19.2.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, S&P 500 (SPY) is the largest aggregate allocation at +41.25%.
Aggregate allocation averages the newest live model portfolios before final scores are known.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 71.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-17 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260815-monthly-clean
35,145 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-15
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-17T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-17
- Exit date: 2026-09-17
- Entry rule: Use the Monday, August 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Thursday, September 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z. Market observations run through the August 14, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 17 close through the August 24 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 17 close through the September 17 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.2% on August 14 to 7,785.76, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 53,732.41, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,729.16. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% to 3,068.42. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, the Russell 2000 rose 1.1%, and the Dow fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 had set an all-time high on August 13.
Through August 14, the reported year-to-date changes were +13.7% for the S&P 500, +15.0% for the Nasdaq, +23.6% for the Russell 2000, and +11.8% for the Dow. Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14 to $88.52 per barrel.
The U.S. Treasury's August 14 par yield curve was 3.86% at three months, 3.98% at one year, 4.17% at two years, 4.36% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.25% at both twenty and thirty years. From August 13 to August 14, the two-year yield rose 2 basis points, the five-year rose 4, the ten-year rose 5, and the thirty-year rose 4. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields derived from indicative bid-side quotations rather than transaction prices.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months. Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for about two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1% and energy fell 1.5%. Over 12 months, energy rose 14.7% and gasoline rose 24.6%.
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after a revised 0.1% decline in June. Final demand rose 4.7% over 12 months. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7% in July. Within goods, energy fell 3.1%, foods fell 0.9%, and goods excluding foods and energy rose 0.1%. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% for the month and 4.7% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as elevated, and uncertainty about the outlook as elevated. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Demand, inventories, and production
The Census Bureau estimated July retail and food-services sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June with a reported ±0.4 percentage-point sampling margin and up 5.0% from July 2025 with a ±0.5-point margin. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles, parts, and gasoline stations fell 0.2%. Motor-vehicle and parts dealers fell 1.8%, nonstore retailers fell 2.2%, clothing and accessories stores rose 1.9%, and food services and drinking places rose 0.5%.
June combined manufacturing and trade sales were $2.1113 trillion, down 1.1% from May and up 10.0% from a year earlier. June inventories were $2.7402 trillion, virtually unchanged from May and 3.0% above a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.30, compared with 1.39 a year earlier.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000. The labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, the employment-population ratio was 58.9%, and average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier.
Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health-care employment rose by 22,000. For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million total separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Output, income, and business surveys
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
ISM reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, its seventh consecutive expansion reading. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1, new orders 57.2, employment 47.4, supplier deliveries 52.8, and prices 70.3. ISM indexes are diffusion measures of reported direction and breadth rather than dollar output.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 17 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly and monthly entry close.
- August 18: July import and export prices and July housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; July industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET; second-quarter retail e-commerce at 10:00 a.m. ET. Home Depot is scheduled to report results.
- August 19: Target and Lowe's are scheduled to report results. Minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting are scheduled at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- August 20: second-quarter advance services at 10:00 a.m. ET. Walmart is scheduled to report results.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 24 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 25: July new-home sales.
- August 26: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, and July durable-goods orders.
- August 27: advance international trade in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories.
- August 28: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- September 1–4: July JOLTS, July construction spending, August ISM manufacturing, July factory orders, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, revised second-quarter productivity, July international trade, August ISM services, and the August Employment Situation.
- September 7: U.S. equity markets are scheduled to be closed for Labor Day.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting; the September 16 decision, Summary of Economic Projections, and press conference are inside the monthly window.
- September 16: August import and export prices, August advance retail sales, and July business inventories.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly exit close at 4:00 p.m. ET.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to their publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-15-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-15'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-17T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-cbcb0bc7f6ba
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-16T01:36:34.583563+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the Monday, August 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Thursday, September 17, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-17'
exit_date: '2026-09-17'
created_at: '2026-08-16T01:36:34.583563+00:00'
notes: Fresh August 15, 2026 monthly Portfolio V3.0 production round. Research cutoff 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z. Entry and exit use official close prices.# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-16T01:41:04Z. Market observations run through the August 14, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 17 close through the August 24 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 17 close through the September 17 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 fell 0.2% on August 14 to 7,785.76, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 53,732.41, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,729.16. The Russell 2000 rose 0.5% to 3,068.42. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.4%, the Nasdaq rose 0.1%, the Russell 2000 rose 1.1%, and the Dow fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 had set an all-time high on August 13.
Through August 14, the reported year-to-date changes were +13.7% for the S&P 500, +15.0% for the Nasdaq, +23.6% for the Russell 2000, and +11.8% for the Dow. Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14 to $88.52 per barrel.
The U.S. Treasury's August 14 par yield curve was 3.86% at three months, 3.98% at one year, 4.17% at two years, 4.36% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.25% at both twenty and thirty years. From August 13 to August 14, the two-year yield rose 2 basis points, the five-year rose 4, the ten-year rose 5, and the thirty-year rose 4. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields derived from indicative bid-side quotations rather than transaction prices.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months. Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for about two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1% and energy fell 1.5%. Over 12 months, energy rose 14.7% and gasoline rose 24.6%.
The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July after a revised 0.1% decline in June. Final demand rose 4.7% over 12 months. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7% in July. Within goods, energy fell 3.1%, foods fell 0.9%, and goods excluding foods and energy rose 0.1%. Final demand excluding foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.4% for the month and 4.7% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace, inflation as elevated, and uncertainty about the outlook as elevated. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Demand, inventories, and production
The Census Bureau estimated July retail and food-services sales at $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June with a reported ±0.4 percentage-point sampling margin and up 5.0% from July 2025 with a ±0.5-point margin. Sales excluding motor vehicles and parts fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles, parts, and gasoline stations fell 0.2%. Motor-vehicle and parts dealers fell 1.8%, nonstore retailers fell 2.2%, clothing and accessories stores rose 1.9%, and food services and drinking places rose 0.5%.
June combined manufacturing and trade sales were $2.1113 trillion, down 1.1% from May and up 10.0% from a year earlier. June inventories were $2.7402 trillion, virtually unchanged from May and 3.0% above a year earlier. The inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.30, compared with 1.39 a year earlier.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000. The labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, the employment-population ratio was 58.9%, and average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier.
Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health-care employment rose by 22,000. For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million total separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Output, income, and business surveys
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
ISM reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, its seventh consecutive expansion reading. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1, new orders 57.2, employment 47.4, supplier deliveries 52.8, and prices 70.3. ISM indexes are diffusion measures of reported direction and breadth rather than dollar output.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 17 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly and monthly entry close.
- August 18: July import and export prices and July housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; July industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 a.m. ET; second-quarter retail e-commerce at 10:00 a.m. ET. Home Depot is scheduled to report results.
- August 19: Target and Lowe's are scheduled to report results. Minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting are scheduled at 2:00 p.m. ET.
- August 20: second-quarter advance services at 10:00 a.m. ET. Walmart is scheduled to report results.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 24 at 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 25: July new-home sales.
- August 26: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, and July durable-goods orders.
- August 27: advance international trade in goods, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories.
- August 28: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- September 1–4: July JOLTS, July construction spending, August ISM manufacturing, July factory orders, the Federal Reserve Beige Book, revised second-quarter productivity, July international trade, August ISM services, and the August Employment Situation.
- September 7: U.S. equity markets are scheduled to be closed for Labor Day.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting; the September 16 decision, Summary of Economic Projections, and press conference are inside the monthly window.
- September 16: August import and export prices, August advance retail sales, and July business inventories.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m. ET; monthly exit close at 4:00 p.m. ET.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to their publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "ca24953369416a48cfced71a2553b0a47fed5ce8f1f2437280952dc20699d9d3",
"manifest.yaml": "3439c2080b3ff9b5d039e4f13b2b7ed0699ec47dc7fc0b8ee37ab97c13b54d81",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "04a884de1c0f32bb899f56fd0f30b7675fec208c5547451b33a3f0b912a06ce1",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "23b01a92e4db73b9911840bef74b2fe865cbab1e279e8b6be15d3a858d657241",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "282deb87bb75ad91321e884422d861f38d7688efd544e5e9cb5e226a9ca3d2a5",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "a9bcc772937712a0df84aaf668181c624140439b75121d596669cdecd57707cd",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "69f4c0f6cebb2f14e5391755e85ecf9944c279be39f814f74274a80ba0fff60d",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "5da9cdb1a1ac8981e62d2fe41d7e07fba6ce33700ded652abdb328d417df4b11",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "b0cf9b835591ce66e32f658ea0a409637a6f58535c6e08290b08283733e9174a",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-15-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Favor quality-pullback and rate-sensitive candidates (small value, utilities, real estate) that lagged despite strong fundamentals, as soft July payrolls, cooling core inflation, and the September 16 FOMC create a plausible dovish catalyst inside the window. Extended high-vol winners (oil, semis, cyber) and structurally deteriorating losers (solar, bitcoin, Brazil) are avoided.
SPY near all-time highs after soft July payrolls (-23k) and downward revisions, with a September 16 FOMC inside the window that likely tilts dovish given cooling labor data and moderating core CPI. Rate-sensitive and quality pullback assets (utilities, real estate, small value) have room to recover; extended high-vol names (oil, semis, cyber) face reversal risk after large prior runs.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"cost_usd": 0.4871,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot August CPI (Sep 11) or hawkish Sep 16 FOMC would hurt rate-sensitive picks",
"Energy-driven inflation (gasoline +24.6% y/y, Brent $88) could push yields higher",
"Small-cap reversal if labor-market weakness broadens into growth fears",
"Utilities/real estate edge is modest; picks may simply track SPY minus fees"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score 0.724 with -1.96% recent active after +3.64% prior active",
"Russell 2000 +23.6% YTD with breadth improving; at 52w high",
"Dovish-tilting FOMC on Sep 16 supports rate-sensitive small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.96% recent active despite +1.61% absolute return; recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Low beta 0.14 with modest 16% vol; quality score 0.649",
"FOMC Sep 16 in window; falling rates favor rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.83% recent active with quality score 0.717 and only -1.61% from 52w high",
"Weak payrolls and soft retail sales raise odds of dovish September FOMC, benefiting rate-sensitives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Russell 2000 +1.1% on week and +23.6% YTD, at 52w high",
"Quality score 0.658; beta 1.21 to a strong tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; all-time high Aug 13"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.60% recent active after -14.63% prior; 30y at 5.25%",
"Payrolls -23k with -103k revisions could pull long yields down into Sep FOMC",
"But sticky headline CPI 3.4% and PPI 4.7% limit rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-7.38% recent active on top of -18.12% prior active suggests persistent weakness, not a one-off shock",
"-17.9% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+30.74% prior active with +4.98% recent active; only -2.5% from high",
"Extended positioning raises reversion risk over a month"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+29.31% prior active but flat recent; 54% vol and -24.6% drawdown",
"Beta 2.38 makes it a levered SPY bet with extended base"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Low vol 4.96%; likely dovish FOMC pressures dollar",
"Highest quality score 0.772 but negative expected carry vs rising equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+14.92% recent active after -25.83% prior; quality score only 0.038",
"42% vol, -26.5% drawdown; choppy regime"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+12.64% recent active but -36.38% prior active and -44.6% from high; quality score 0.016",
"Gold +10% over 21 sessions may provide some support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.31% week, +45.41% prior active; Brent $88.52",
"54% vol with -32.5% drawdown; large mean-reversion risk after run"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-50% from 52w high with persistent negative active returns; trend broken",
"36% vol, -27.9% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-7.49% recent and -15.49% prior active; -29.7% from high, 46% vol",
"Persistent downtrend, not a one-off shock; lowest drawdown rank"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-17.02% prior active downtrend; volume z 1.45 dislocation but no clear catalyst",
"Wide rate differential persists at 3.50-3.75% Fed funds"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REAL_ESTATE": 30,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"UTILITIES",
"REAL_ESTATE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near all-time highs after soft July payrolls (-23k) and downward revisions, with a September 16 FOMC inside the window that likely tilts dovish given cooling labor data and moderating core CPI. Rate-sensitive and quality pullback assets (utilities, real estate, small value) have room to recover; extended high-vol names (oil, semis, cyber) face reversal risk after large prior runs.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"UTILITIES",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor quality-pullback and rate-sensitive candidates (small value, utilities, real estate) that lagged despite strong fundamentals, as soft July payrolls, cooling core inflation, and the September 16 FOMC create a plausible dovish catalyst inside the window. Extended high-vol winners (oil, semis, cyber) and structurally deteriorating losers (solar, bitcoin, Brazil) are avoided.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near all-time highs after soft July payrolls (-23k) and downward revisions, with a September 16 FOMC inside the window that likely tilts dovish given cooling labor data and moderating core CPI. Rate-sensitive and quality pullback assets (utilities, real estate, small value) have room to recover; extended high-vol names (oil, semis, cyber) face reversal risk after large prior runs.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.4871,
"input_tokens": 29370,
"latency_seconds": 44.597651658999894,
"output_tokens": 3868,
"total_tokens": 33238
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
No candidate clears the eligibility bar of overreaction-labeled with >=55% probability of beating SPY. The strongest continuation names (oil, cybersecurity, semis) rest on supported or no-edge interpretations and remain below 55%, while the overreaction-labeled candidates (utilities, real estate, Brazil, bitcoin, solar) carry fundamental headwinds (rising yields, EM/crypto risk) and offer weak/negative median edge. With SPY near highs and a catalyst-heavy window (CPI, PPI, jobs, Sept 16 FOMC), a SPY-default stance is preferred; the deterministic rule will fill all slots with SPY.
SPY near all-time highs after +13.7% YTD, with cooling labor market (-23k payrolls, downward revisions), sticky inflation (CPI 3.4%, core PCE 3.3%), and a hawkish-hold FOMC. High cross-sectional dispersion with energy/commodities/foreign strong and rate-sensitive defensives weak. The monthly window includes CPI, PPI, jobs, and a Sept 16 FOMC decision, all high-variance catalysts. Few candidates show durable, supported edge over SPY; most extreme moves lack independent in-window support, so a SPY-heavy stance is warranted.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sept 16 FOMC decision and CPI/PPI/jobs prints could sharply reprice both equities and rate-sensitive assets within the window",
"Elevated volatility in commodity and thematic names (oil 54%, semis 54%) can produce large realized deviations in either direction",
"Cooling labor market and slowing GDP (1.5%) raise recession/risk-off potential that could hurt cyclicals and small caps"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"USO +7.31% recent, Brent +1.7% to $88.52",
"Energy 14.7% YoY in CPI",
"very high volatility 53.84%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CIBR prior active +30.74%, recent +4.98%",
"only -2.54% from 52w high",
"high quality prior rank 0.985"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMH prior active +29.31% but recent only +0.88%",
"very high vol 54.02%, beta 2.38",
"-12.12% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, SPY +3.41% 21s",
"broad diversified exposure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWM +1.17% recent, Russell 2000 +23.6% YTD",
"at 52w high",
"cooling labor market headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP low vol 4.96%, quality score 0.772",
"recent active -4.22%",
"low equity correlation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWN quality 0.724, at 52w high",
"recent active -1.96%",
"beta 0.96"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLU recent active -5.96%, recent +1.61%",
"rising long yields headwind (30y 5.25%)",
"defensive low beta 0.12"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLRE recent active -3.83%, quality 0.717",
"rising yields pressure rate-sensitive",
"near 52w high -1.61%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XME active 21s +14.92% but prior -25.83%",
"very high vol 41.92%",
"low quality score 0.038"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV active 21s +12.64% but prior -36.38%",
"-44.62% from 52w high",
"very high vol 46.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"FXY volume z +1.45",
"recent -1.13%",
"low equity correlation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TLT recent active -5.60%, 30y yield 5.25% rising",
"sticky inflation CPI 3.4%",
"FOMC hawkish hold"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EWZ recent -3.99%, active 21s -7.38%",
"-17.92% from 52w high",
"EM flow sensitive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IBIT recent -3.18%, -50.02% from 52w high",
"very high vol 35.84%",
"risk appetite sensitive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 22,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TAN -29.70% from 52w high, recent active -7.49%",
"extreme vol 46.00%, drawdown -35.51%",
"beta 1.88"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -22,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 22,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near all-time highs after +13.7% YTD, with cooling labor market (-23k payrolls, downward revisions), sticky inflation (CPI 3.4%, core PCE 3.3%), and a hawkish-hold FOMC. High cross-sectional dispersion with energy/commodities/foreign strong and rate-sensitive defensives weak. The monthly window includes CPI, PPI, jobs, and a Sept 16 FOMC decision, all high-variance catalysts. Few candidates show durable, supported edge over SPY; most extreme moves lack independent in-window support, so a SPY-heavy stance is warranted.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "No candidate clears the eligibility bar of overreaction-labeled with >=55% probability of beating SPY. The strongest continuation names (oil, cybersecurity, semis) rest on supported or no-edge interpretations and remain below 55%, while the overreaction-labeled candidates (utilities, real estate, Brazil, bitcoin, solar) carry fundamental headwinds (rising yields, EM/crypto risk) and offer weak/negative median edge. With SPY near highs and a catalyst-heavy window (CPI, PPI, jobs, Sept 16 FOMC), a SPY-default stance is preferred; the deterministic rule will fill all slots with SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near all-time highs after +13.7% YTD, with cooling labor market (-23k payrolls, downward revisions), sticky inflation (CPI 3.4%, core PCE 3.3%), and a hawkish-hold FOMC. High cross-sectional dispersion with energy/commodities/foreign strong and rate-sensitive defensives weak. The monthly window includes CPI, PPI, jobs, and a Sept 16 FOMC decision, all high-variance catalysts. Few candidates show durable, supported edge over SPY; most extreme moves lack independent in-window support, so a SPY-heavy stance is warranted.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29376,
"latency_seconds": 44.454758760000004,
"output_tokens": 3731,
"total_tokens": 33107
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only two candidates clear both the overreaction label and the 55% bar: SMALL_CAP and SMALL_VALUE, both consolidating at 52-week highs after positive prior relative trends, with low volume and clear in-window catalysts (Sept 4 payrolls, Sept 16 FOMC and SEP) that can favor domestic small caps if rate-cut odds rebuild. Extended commodity, precious-metals and mining moves are treated as continuation without independent support and are not eligible. Duration, crypto, solar and Brazil show fundamental deterioration rather than temporary dislocation. Remaining exposure defaults to SPY, which is appropriate given a mixed macro tape at all-time highs.
S&P 500 at all-time highs with breadth improving (RSP > SPY over 5 sessions, Russell 2000 +23.6% YTD). Macro is mixed: payrolls negative with downward revisions, GDP slowing to 1.5%, but ISM manufacturing and services both expanding and core CPI at 2.5% y/y. Long-end yields rose and are at 5.25% at 20-30y, so duration and rate-sensitive defensives lack support. A September 16 FOMC with SEP falls inside the window and is the dominant swing factor; a weak August payroll print (Sept 4) could push cuts back onto the table, supporting small caps and rate-sensitive equity. Energy/oil just spiked sharply and precious metals/mining ran hot, arguing against fresh continuation entries at extended levels. Overall few high-conviction non-SPY overreaction cases; benchmark exposure dominates.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"cost_usd": 0.25934999999999997,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish September 16 FOMC or upside August CPI on Sept 11 would hit small caps and rate-sensitive equity harder than SPY",
"Continued payroll weakness could shift leadership to mega-cap defensives, causing small caps to underperform on growth fear rather than benefit from cut odds",
"Elevated long-end yields at 5.25% keep pressure on real estate and small-cap financing conditions",
"Mega-cap tech concentration means SPY can outrun broad-market candidates on a narrow AI-led rally",
"Oil at $88.52 Brent sustaining higher energy costs could re-accelerate inflation and delay easing"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -0.20% despite prior 105s active +3.58% and at 52w high",
"Volume z -1.09 indicates low-participation consolidation, not distribution",
"Sept 16 FOMC and Sept 4 payrolls inside window are small-cap catalysts"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -1.96% against prior active +3.64%, quality score 0.724",
"At 52-week high with modest 14.6% vol and only -2.75% drawdown",
"Highest-quality slate pullback candidate ex-dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.717 with recent active -3.83%",
"Only -1.61% from 52w high, low drawdown -4.19%",
"Ten-year yield rose 5bp and long end at 5.25% limits rate relief"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +30.74%, recent active +4.98%, only -2.54% from 52w high",
"Moderate 32.5% vol with shallow -11.74% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +29.31% but recent active -0.09%",
"54% vol, beta 2.38, -24.62% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score 0.772 but only 4.96% vol caps upside",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.31 in a rising equity tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.96% and prior active -8.94%",
"Long-end yields at 5.25% pressure rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +7.31% in 5 sessions, Brent $88.52",
"Prior active +45.41% and 53.8% vol imply extended positioning"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +14.92% after prior active -25.83%",
"Lowest quality score 0.038 with 41.9% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.64% versus prior active -36.38%",
"46.6% vol, -33.27% drawdown, -44.62% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-50.02% from 52w high with -27.9% drawdown",
"Recent active -5.50% on top of prior active -12.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -7.38% after prior active -18.12%",
"-17.92% from 52w high with persistent EM outflow pattern"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"30-year at 5.25%; ten-year rose 5bp on Aug 14",
"Headline CPI 3.4% y/y and PPI 4.7% y/y keep term premium elevated"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +1.45 signals dislocation but prior active -17.02%",
"7.6% vol limits upside in a risk-on tape"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-29.70% from 52w high, -35.51% drawdown, 46% vol",
"Recent active -7.49% following prior active -15.49%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark at all-time high set Aug 13, +13.7% YTD",
"13.92% vol, -4.49% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy_5s +0.82% shows improving breadth",
"Quality score 0.640 with lower vol 11.06% and shallow -2.04% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 17,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.690 with recent active -0.93%",
"Lowest drawdown among cyclical sectors at -2.08%, near 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 18,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 17,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "FINANCIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 18,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "S&P 500 at all-time highs with breadth improving (RSP > SPY over 5 sessions, Russell 2000 +23.6% YTD). Macro is mixed: payrolls negative with downward revisions, GDP slowing to 1.5%, but ISM manufacturing and services both expanding and core CPI at 2.5% y/y. Long-end yields rose and are at 5.25% at 20-30y, so duration and rate-sensitive defensives lack support. A September 16 FOMC with SEP falls inside the window and is the dominant swing factor; a weak August payroll print (Sept 4) could push cuts back onto the table, supporting small caps and rate-sensitive equity. Energy/oil just spiked sharply and precious metals/mining ran hot, arguing against fresh continuation entries at extended levels. Overall few high-conviction non-SPY overreaction cases; benchmark exposure dominates.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only two candidates clear both the overreaction label and the 55% bar: SMALL_CAP and SMALL_VALUE, both consolidating at 52-week highs after positive prior relative trends, with low volume and clear in-window catalysts (Sept 4 payrolls, Sept 16 FOMC and SEP) that can favor domestic small caps if rate-cut odds rebuild. Extended commodity, precious-metals and mining moves are treated as continuation without independent support and are not eligible. Duration, crypto, solar and Brazil show fundamental deterioration rather than temporary dislocation. Remaining exposure defaults to SPY, which is appropriate given a mixed macro tape at all-time highs.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "S&P 500 at all-time highs with breadth improving (RSP > SPY over 5 sessions, Russell 2000 +23.6% YTD). Macro is mixed: payrolls negative with downward revisions, GDP slowing to 1.5%, but ISM manufacturing and services both expanding and core CPI at 2.5% y/y. Long-end yields rose and are at 5.25% at 20-30y, so duration and rate-sensitive defensives lack support. A September 16 FOMC with SEP falls inside the window and is the dominant swing factor; a weak August payroll print (Sept 4) could push cuts back onto the table, supporting small caps and rate-sensitive equity. Energy/oil just spiked sharply and precious metals/mining ran hot, arguing against fresh continuation entries at extended levels. Overall few high-conviction non-SPY overreaction cases; benchmark exposure dominates.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.25934999999999997,
"input_tokens": 29370,
"latency_seconds": 50.30171597900062,
"output_tokens": 4500,
"total_tokens": 33870
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent pullbacks or volume dislocations, suggesting potential overreactions. YEN shows a strong volume dislocation and significant prior underperformance. LONG_TREASURY offers a potential reversal play given cooling inflation data despite the Fed holding rates. SMALL_VALUE presents a quality pullback opportunity with a high quality score.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent inflation data coming in soft (CPI +0.1%, PPI unchanged) and retail sales falling 0.6%, suggesting a cooling economy. However, the S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, and the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This environment favors a balanced approach, looking for opportunities in both defensive and cyclical sectors depending on specific asset dynamics.
{
"confidence": 0.65,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation data could reverse course, leading to higher yields and negatively impacting LONG_TREASURY.",
"A broader market sell-off could disproportionately affect SMALL_VALUE stocks.",
"YEN's reversal may not materialize if interest rate differentials remain wide."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.48% and prior active return of -15.49%.",
"High volatility of 46.00% and max drawdown of -35.51%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.99% and prior active return of -18.12%.",
"Quality score of 0.426."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.61% and prior active return of -8.94%.",
"Quality score of 0.649."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.87% and prior active return of -14.63%.",
"Fed held rates steady, but inflation data is cooling."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.18% and prior active return of -12.56%.",
"High volatility of 35.84%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 7.31% and prior active return of 45.41%.",
"Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.79% and prior active return of 30.74%.",
"Quality score of 0.539."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.88% and prior active return of 29.31%.",
"High volatility of 54.02%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.21% and prior active return of -25.83%.",
"Low quality score of 0.038."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.70% and prior active return of -36.38%.",
"Very low quality score of 0.016."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.14% and prior active return of -5.11%.",
"High quality score of 0.772."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.85% and prior active return of 3.64%.",
"High quality score of 0.724."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.64% and prior active return of -3.09%.",
"High quality score of 0.717."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.13% and prior active return of -17.02%.",
"High volume z-score of 1.45."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 68,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.17% and prior active return of 3.58%.",
"Volume z-score of -1.09."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"LONG_TREASURY": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30,
"YEN": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"YEN",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent inflation data coming in soft (CPI +0.1%, PPI unchanged) and retail sales falling 0.6%, suggesting a cooling economy. However, the S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, and the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This environment favors a balanced approach, looking for opportunities in both defensive and cyclical sectors depending on specific asset dynamics.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"YEN",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "YEN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 68% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 65% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent pullbacks or volume dislocations, suggesting potential overreactions. YEN shows a strong volume dislocation and significant prior underperformance. LONG_TREASURY offers a potential reversal play given cooling inflation data despite the Fed holding rates. SMALL_VALUE presents a quality pullback opportunity with a high quality score.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent inflation data coming in soft (CPI +0.1%, PPI unchanged) and retail sales falling 0.6%, suggesting a cooling economy. However, the S&P 500 recently hit an all-time high, and the Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%. This environment favors a balanced approach, looking for opportunities in both defensive and cyclical sectors depending on specific asset dynamics.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 20362,
"latency_seconds": 24.69682761600052,
"output_tokens": 3554,
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}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The ranking favors three measured pullback reversals: small-value breadth and two rate-sensitive defensives. Each combines a meaningful recent relative setback with better quality or macro support than the slate's extreme losers, while avoiding dependence on stretched commodity and high-beta continuation trades.
Broad participation and solid business surveys favor selective equity exposure, but weak payrolls, soft retail sales, elevated inflation, and an unusually consequential FOMC meeting create substantial reversal risk. Quality pullbacks offer better one-month setups than extreme momentum or structurally weak losers.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"August CPI or PPI reaccelerates and pushes long yields higher before the FOMC",
"The September FOMC delivers a hawkish hold or rate increase, hurting real estate and utilities",
"Weak payrolls and retail sales develop into a sharper growth scare that pressures small-value earnings",
"Mega-cap technology leadership resumes, causing SPY to outperform broader and defensive exposures"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.724, with strong prior active rank 0.821 and pullback rank 0.597",
"Recent active return was -1.96% despite prior active return of 3.64%",
"Russell 2000 gained 1.1% for the week and 23.6% year to date"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.717 and recent pullback rank 0.866",
"Recent active return was -3.83% with a contained 63-day drawdown of 4.19%",
"Weak payrolls and slower headline CPI could temper yields before the FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -5.96% produced the universe's 0.970 pullback rank",
"Low SPY beta of 0.14 provides defensive differentiation",
"Payrolls fell 23,000 and prior months were revised down by 103,000"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 3.58% and quality score was 0.658",
"Russell 2000 rose 1.1% for the week versus 0.4% for the S&P 500",
"Manufacturing PMI was 55.6 and private domestic final sales grew 3.9% annualized"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score at 0.772 with pullback rank 0.910",
"Recent active return was -4.22% while volatility was only 4.96%",
"Three FOMC voters preferred a rate increase and inflation remained elevated"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 30.74% was the strongest among slate equities",
"Recent active return remained positive at 4.98%",
"It was only 2.54% below its 52-week high, though volatility was 32.50%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The S&P 500 set an all-time high on August 13",
"Positive asset share was 75.36% over 21 sessions",
"The monthly window includes CPI, payrolls, and the September FOMC decision"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -5.60% and pullback rank was 0.955",
"Payroll contraction and downward revisions support a growth-slowdown hedge",
"Thirty-year Treasury yield was 5.25% and the FOMC still described inflation as elevated"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 29.31%, ranking near the top of the universe",
"Recent active return was nearly flat at -0.09%",
"Volatility was 54.02%, beta 2.38, and drawdown 24.62%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 45.41% and recent active return was 2.71%",
"Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14 to $88.52",
"Volatility was 53.84% and the recent 7.31% gain raises reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -7.38% and prior active return was -18.12%",
"Quality score was only 0.426 despite a deep pullback rank",
"It remained 17.92% below its 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score of 1.45 was a clear dislocation",
"Prior active return was -17.02% and recent active return was -1.41%",
"Low beta limits equity sensitivity but no specific yen catalyst was supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -5.50% after prior active return of -12.56%",
"It was 50.02% below its 52-week high",
"Volatility was 35.84% and drawdown was 27.90%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -7.49% after prior active return of -15.49%",
"Quality score was 0.365 and 63-day drawdown reached 35.51%",
"High long yields and elevated inflation are adverse for rate-sensitive clean energy"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 14.92% but prior active return was -25.83%",
"Quality score was only 0.038, the weakest among slate equities",
"Volatility was 41.92% and drawdown was 26.49%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 12.64% after prior active return of -36.38%",
"Quality score was just 0.016",
"It remained 44.62% below its 52-week high with 46.56% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REAL_ESTATE": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"UTILITIES": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"UTILITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Broad participation and solid business surveys favor selective equity exposure, but weak payrolls, soft retail sales, elevated inflation, and an unusually consequential FOMC meeting create substantial reversal risk. Quality pullbacks offer better one-month setups than extreme momentum or structurally weak losers.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The ranking favors three measured pullback reversals: small-value breadth and two rate-sensitive defensives. Each combines a meaningful recent relative setback with better quality or macro support than the slate's extreme losers, while avoiding dependence on stretched commodity and high-beta continuation trades.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Broad participation and solid business surveys favor selective equity exposure, but weak payrolls, soft retail sales, elevated inflation, and an unusually consequential FOMC meeting create substantial reversal risk. Quality pullbacks offer better one-month setups than extreme momentum or structurally weak losers.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks favor continuation in energy and tech with overreaction labels on select reversals meeting 55% threshold for potential outperformance.
Energy and select tech show relative strength amid mixed macro data on labor, inflation, and GDP; broad equities stable but with reversal candidates in rate-sensitive and commodity areas.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Labor market revisions and weak payrolls",
"Inflation persistence above target",
"FOMC policy uncertainty in window",
"Commodity volatility from inventories"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"USO 7.31% recent return",
"prior active 45.41%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CIBR 1.79% recent return",
"prior active 30.74%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMH 0.88% recent return",
"prior active 29.31%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 37,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWM 1.17% recent return",
"volume z -1.09"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XME 1.21% recent return",
"active 14.92%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV 1.70% recent return",
"prior active -36.38%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWN 0.85% recent return",
"quality score 0.724"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP 0.14% recent return",
"quality score 0.772"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLRE 0.64% recent return",
"quality score 0.717"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLU 1.61% recent return",
"recent pullback rank 0.970"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 0.40% recent return",
"benchmark status"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TLT -0.87% recent return",
"recent pullback rank 0.955"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"FXY -1.13% recent return",
"volume z 1.45"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IBIT -3.18% recent return",
"52w-high distance -50.02%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EWZ -3.99% recent return",
"prior active -18.12%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TAN -1.48% recent return",
"quality score 0.365"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Energy and select tech show relative strength amid mixed macro data on labor, inflation, and GDP; broad equities stable but with reversal candidates in rate-sensitive and commodity areas.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor continuation in energy and tech with overreaction labels on select reversals meeting 55% threshold for potential outperformance.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Energy and select tech show relative strength amid mixed macro data on labor, inflation, and GDP; broad equities stable but with reversal candidates in rate-sensitive and commodity areas.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17160,
"latency_seconds": 24.24668842400024,
"output_tokens": 2200,
"reasoning_tokens": 527,
"total_tokens": 19887
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Medium-strength oil and cybersecurity retain the cleanest in-window support versus SPY; small-value offers quality pullback ballast. Most shock-reversal names fail the overreaction-plus-55% bar or show deterioration, so the deterministic rule should leave most or all slots in SPY.
SPY near highs with solid ISM/PMI and mixed labor; sticky CPI/PPI and elevated long yields keep rate-sensitive assets pressured while energy/oil show independent strength; one-month path hinges on Sept FOMC/CPI with limited clean reversal catalysts versus continuation in medium-strength names.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September FOMC decision and SEP could reprice the long end and hit duration/rate-sensitive equities",
"August CPI/PPI prints may reinforce sticky inflation and pressure risk assets",
"Oil/energy continuation can reverse sharply on supply or demand headlines given 50%+ horizon vol",
"Soft labor revisions and weak retail sales could widen equity drawdowns if growth fears reaccelerate"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"USO recent return +7.31% with prior active +45.41% and negative SPY corr",
"Brent crude at $88.52 after +1.7% on Aug 14",
"Energy 12-month CPI component +14.7% with gasoline +24.6%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CIBR prior active +30.74% with recent active +4.98% and only -2.54% from 52w high",
"Quality evidence score 0.539 with very high prior active rank 0.985",
"Horizon vol 32.5% but shallower drawdown than semis/solar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score 0.724 with prior active rank 0.821 and shallow drawdown rank 0.791",
"IWN at 52w high distance 0.00% with modest horizon vol 14.6%",
"Russell 2000 +0.5% on Aug 14 and +1.1% for the week while SPY +0.4%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMH prior active +29.31% with quality score 0.593 and prior active rank 0.970",
"Recent active near flat (-0.09%) after strong medium-horizon trend",
"High beta 2.38 and vol 54% leave large two-way risk into Sept data/FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWM volume z -1.09 with return_5s +1.17% and at 52w high",
"Quality score 0.658 and YTD Russell context +23.6% vs SPY +13.7%",
"Soft July payrolls and retail sales keep domestic-cyclical sensitivity two-sided"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY set all-time high Aug 13 then -0.2% Aug 14; weekly +0.4%",
"Horizon vol 13.92% and max drawdown -4.49% with distance to 52w high -0.20%",
"Benchmark for excess-return scoring over Aug 17–Sep 17 window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP quality evidence score 0.772 highest among slate with low vol rank 0.881",
"Recent active -4.22% after prior active -5.11%; negative SPY corr",
"Treasury curve still elevated with 10y 4.68% and 30y 5.25%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLRE quality score 0.717 with recent pullback rank 0.866",
"Active return_21s -3.83% and low SPY beta 0.27",
"Rate path into Sept FOMC remains key given long-end yields rising on Aug 14"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLU recent active -5.96% and prior active -8.94% with quality score 0.649",
"Very high recent pullback rank 0.970 and low SPY corr 0.12",
"Defensive sector but still rate-sensitive with 30y yield at 5.25%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XME active_21s +14.92% after prior active -25.83%",
"Quality score only 0.038 with high vol 41.9% and deep drawdown -26.5%",
"Short-continuation lane without strong fundamental support in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TLT recent active -5.60% and prior active -14.63% with pullback rank 0.955",
"Par curve 10y 4.68% / 30y 5.25%; yields rose further Aug 13–14",
"FOMC held 3.50–3.75% with three dissenters preferring a hike; Sept meeting inside window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SLV active_21s +12.64% after prior active -36.38%",
"Quality score 0.016; 52w-high distance -44.62% and vol 46.6%",
"Precious-metals path tied to real rates/USD without fresh catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"FXY volume z 1.45 with return_5s -1.13% and prior active -17.02%",
"Low beta to SPY but quality score only 0.413",
"No Japan policy catalyst dated inside the monthly window in the briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"EWZ recent -3.99% and active_21s -7.38% after prior active -18.12%",
"Quality score 0.426 despite high pullback rank 0.985",
"EM equity cluster remains pressured with no Brazil-specific positive catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IBIT -3.18% recent, active_21s -5.50%, prior active -12.56%, 52w distance -50%",
"Vol 35.8% and max drawdown -27.9% with quality score 0.422",
"High beta 1.75 leaves crypto sensitive to risk appetite into FOMC/CPI"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TAN active_21s -7.49% and prior active -15.49% with max drawdown -35.51%",
"Quality score 0.365; vol 46% and 52w-high distance -29.7%",
"Shock_reversal lane but shallow evidence of mean-reversion catalyst before Sep 17"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near highs with solid ISM/PMI and mixed labor; sticky CPI/PPI and elevated long yields keep rate-sensitive assets pressured while energy/oil show independent strength; one-month path hinges on Sept FOMC/CPI with limited clean reversal catalysts versus continuation in medium-strength names.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Medium-strength oil and cybersecurity retain the cleanest in-window support versus SPY; small-value offers quality pullback ballast. Most shock-reversal names fail the overreaction-plus-55% bar or show deterioration, so the deterministic rule should leave most or all slots in SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near highs with solid ISM/PMI and mixed labor; sticky CPI/PPI and elevated long yields keep rate-sensitive assets pressured while energy/oil show independent strength; one-month path hinges on Sept FOMC/CPI with limited clean reversal catalysts versus continuation in medium-strength names.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18203,
"latency_seconds": 58.12136573299995,
"output_tokens": 3648,
"reasoning_tokens": 682,
"total_tokens": 22533
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Near-high SPY, rising long yields, still-elevated inflation, and a live September FOMC compress one-month excess-return odds. Highest-quality domestic factor names sit closest to the benchmark, while shock losers fail a clean reversal test because rates, energy inflation, and high idiosyncratic vol remain live. No non-SPY name clears a high-confidence beat-SPY bar.
SPY is near a fresh high with solid YTD gains while yields rose into a still-elevated inflation print, a divided FOMC hold, and a September FOMC inside the window. Breadth is mixed rather than one-way: equal-weight slightly led recently, oil and some cyclicals were strong, while duration, EM, solar, and crypto lagged. One-month edge versus SPY looks limited.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 15-16 FOMC, SEP, and press conference can reprice duration, growth, and high-beta equities inside the window.",
"August CPI/PPI and the jobs report can extend the energy-driven inflation surprise already in the July CPI.",
"Soft July payrolls and downward revisions raise recession-scare risk for cyclicals if follow-through data weaken.",
"Oil’s high vol and negative equity beta can reverse quickly if the recent crude spike fades."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 set an all-time high on August 13 and was only 0.20% below the 52-week high at the as-of close.",
"Weekly S&P 500 return was +0.4% with YTD +13.7%.",
"September 15-16 FOMC is inside the scoring window after a 9-3 hold and elevated inflation language."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.724 is among the highest on the slate with a 0.00% 52-week-high distance.",
"Recent active return was -1.96% after a +3.64% prior active trend.",
"Russell 2000 rose 0.5% on August 14 and +1.1% for the week while large caps slipped."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWM volume z-score was -1.09 with the index at a 0.00% 52-week-high distance.",
"Russell 2000 YTD was +23.6% versus +13.7% for the S&P 500.",
"Horizon vol 18.09% and max drawdown -4.03% are milder than most high-beta slate names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was +30.74% with recent active still +4.98%.",
"Distance to 52-week high was only -2.54%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.539 with high prior-active rank 0.985."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score at 0.772 with low 4.96% horizon vol.",
"Recent active return -4.22% after a modest prior -5.11% active trend.",
"Negative SPY correlation (-0.31) and rising Treasury yields on August 14."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -5.96% and prior active -8.94% with quality score 0.649.",
"SPY beta only 0.14 and correlation 0.12.",
"Ten-year yield rose 5 bp on August 14 to 4.68%, a headwind for rate-sensitive defensives."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.717 with recent pullback rank 0.866.",
"Recent active return -3.83% and 52-week-high distance -1.61%.",
"Housing starts jumped in June but permits fell 3.0% and long yields remain elevated."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO recent return +7.31% with prior active +45.41% and negative SPY correlation.",
"Brent crude rose 1.7% on August 14 to $88.52.",
"12-month CPI energy +14.7% and gasoline +24.6% keep the inflation channel live into September CPI."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +29.31% but recent active nearly flat at -0.09%.",
"Horizon vol 54.02% and max drawdown -24.62% with beta 2.38.",
"Quality prior-active rank 0.970 but low-vol rank 0.015."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.60% and prior active -14.63% after a 4-5 bp yield rise on August 14.",
"Thirty-year par yield was 5.25% with three FOMC voters preferring a hike.",
"Horizon vol 9.38% is low but duration remains exposed to the September FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 1.45 is the only clear volume dislocation on the slate.",
"Recent return -1.13% and prior active -17.02%.",
"Low 7.60% vol but weak quality score 0.413."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.99% and recent active -7.38% after prior active -18.12%.",
"Recent pullback rank 0.985 but prior-active rank only 0.090.",
"SPY corr 0.50 and 52-week-high distance -17.92%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.18% and 52-week-high distance -50.02%.",
"Horizon vol 35.84% and max drawdown -27.90%.",
"Recent pullback rank 0.940 but quality score only 0.422."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +14.92% after a -25.83% prior active collapse.",
"Quality evidence score 0.038 is near the bottom of the universe.",
"Horizon vol 41.92% and max drawdown -26.49%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.64% after prior active -36.38%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.016 with 52-week-high distance -44.62%.",
"Horizon vol 46.56% and max drawdown -33.27%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Horizon max drawdown -35.51% and 52-week-high distance -29.70%.",
"Quality score 0.365 with shallow-drawdown rank 0.000 despite a 1.000 recent-pullback rank.",
"Beta 1.88 and 46% horizon vol leave little one-month buffer versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a fresh high with solid YTD gains while yields rose into a still-elevated inflation print, a divided FOMC hold, and a September FOMC inside the window. Breadth is mixed rather than one-way: equal-weight slightly led recently, oil and some cyclicals were strong, while duration, EM, solar, and crypto lagged. One-month edge versus SPY looks limited.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Near-high SPY, rising long yields, still-elevated inflation, and a live September FOMC compress one-month excess-return odds. Highest-quality domestic factor names sit closest to the benchmark, while shock losers fail a clean reversal test because rates, energy inflation, and high idiosyncratic vol remain live. No non-SPY name clears a high-confidence beat-SPY bar.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a fresh high with solid YTD gains while yields rose into a still-elevated inflation print, a divided FOMC hold, and a September FOMC inside the window. Breadth is mixed rather than one-way: equal-weight slightly led recently, oil and some cyclicals were strong, while duration, EM, solar, and crypto lagged. One-month edge versus SPY looks limited.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17915,
"latency_seconds": 49.62789317700026,
"output_tokens": 3092,
"reasoning_tokens": 680,
"total_tokens": 21687
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Japanese Yen (FXY)35%Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | ca2495336941...0699d9d3 |
| manifest.yaml | 3439c2080b3f...13b54d81 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 04a884de1c0f...12a06ce1 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 23b01a92e4db...8d657241 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 282deb87bb75...9ca3d2a5 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | a9bcc7729377...d57707cd |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 69f4c0f6cebb...a0fff60d |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 5da9cdb1a1ac...17df4b11 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |