Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 22.8 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 2.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 75.5 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-08 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260904-monthly-clean
31,605 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Cybersecurity (CIBR)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- Decision date: 2026-09-04
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-05T02:45:00Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-08T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-09-08
- Exit date: 2026-10-08
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — September 4, 2026
Research cutoff: September 5, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, equivalent to September 4 at
22:45 Eastern Daylight Time. Market-data observations end September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Labor and domestic activity
- BLS's August employment release, reported by CNBC on September 4, showed
seasonally adjusted payroll growth of 162,000 and unchanged unemployment of
4.1%. June and July payroll gains were revised to 31,000 and 21,000. Average
hourly earnings rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Payroll estimates remain
subject to revision.
- BEA's August 26 second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at 1.5%
annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private
domestic purchasers grew 4.2% annualized, revised upward by 0.3 percentage
point. These are quarterly annualized measures.
## Prices and household spending
- BEA reported July headline and core PCE price increases of 0.2% each from
June. Their year-over-year increases were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
- BEA reported July nominal consumption growth of 0.2%, real consumption
growth below 0.1%, disposable personal income growth of 0.5%, and a 3.0%
personal saving rate. The release revised April–June estimates.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29 the Federal Reserve retained the 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target
range by a 9–3 vote. The dissenting voters preferred a 0.25-percentage-point
increase. The statement described solid activity and inflation above 2%.
- CNBC's September 4 Treasury report, updated at 16:12 EDT, quoted two-year,
ten-year, and thirty-year yields of 4.377%, 4.784%, and 5.245%. These are
article-time quotes. It reported CME FedWatch pricing of a 58% probability
of a quarter-point September increase; that is a market-implied estimate,
not a policy decision.
## Equity-market observations
- CNBC reported September 4 closes of 53,414.25 for the Dow, 7,718.60 for the
S&P 500, and 26,506.99 for the Nasdaq Composite. Their session changes were
−0.51%, −0.38%, and −0.29%, respectively. Exchange-wide advancing/declining
issue counts and a current credit-spread observation are not supplied.
## International activity and prices
- Eurostat's August flash estimate, reported September 1 by CNBC, put annual
euro-area inflation at 3.3%, versus 2.9% in July. Energy inflation increased
to 14.3% from 10.3%, while core inflation decreased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
- China's official August manufacturing PMI was 49.8, versus 49.2 in July,
according to NBS data reported August 31 in China by CNBC. Production was
50.4, new orders 50.6, and new export orders 50.1; the headline was below
50 while those components were above 50.
## Energy and trade
- CNBC's September 4 energy report put U.S. nationwide diesel at $5.85 per
gallon, versus $3.71 in its year-earlier comparison. It reported refinery
interruptions in Russia and the Middle East.
- BEA and Census reported a July nominal goods-and-services deficit of $88.6
billion, versus revised June $71.2 billion. July exports were $310.7 billion
and imports $399.3 billion. The year-to-date deficit was 29.6% below the
comparable 2025 period. The figures are seasonally adjusted, not price-adjusted.
- On September 4 President Trump threatened to stop trade with countries
having trade surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cut rates,
CNBC reported. The report provided no implementation date or confirmation
of an enacted blanket trade halt.
## Scheduled events
The shared entry date is September 8. The weekly window ends September 15;
the monthly window ends October 8. NYSE is closed September 7 for Labor Day.
Dates below are scheduled, with outcomes unknown at the cutoff.
| Date | Publisher or institution | Scheduled event | Within scoring window |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| September 10 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August producer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 10 | ECB, as reported by CNBC | Monetary-policy decision | Weekly and monthly |
| September 11 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August consumer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 15–16 | Federal Reserve | FOMC meeting and economic projections; decision September 16 | Decision is monthly only, after the weekly exit |
| September 24, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | Second-quarter international transactions and investment position | Monthly |
| September 30, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | GDP third estimate and annual updates; August personal income and outlays | Monthly |
| October 6, 08:30 Eastern | BEA and Census | August international trade | Monthly |
All facts and scheduled events remain descriptive context. No inclusion,
placement, or grouping expresses an expected return. The complete mechanical
appendix is descriptive price history, not a forecast.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-04-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-04'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-08T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-96dc9f3d5254
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-05T02:40:19.317760+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-08'
exit_date: '2026-10-08'
created_at: '2026-09-05T02:40:19.317760+00:00'
notes: >-
Fresh September 4, 2026 direct public-source research, prepared independently
of prior briefings. Entry is the next eligible NYSE session after the weekend
and September 7 Labor Day holiday. Exit is one calendar month after entry.
GPT-6 Astra replaces retired GPT-5.6 SOL prospectively; no historical backfill.# Market Briefing — September 4, 2026
Research cutoff: September 5, 2026 at 02:45 UTC, equivalent to September 4 at
22:45 Eastern Daylight Time. Market-data observations end September 4.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Labor and domestic activity
- BLS's August employment release, reported by CNBC on September 4, showed
seasonally adjusted payroll growth of 162,000 and unchanged unemployment of
4.1%. June and July payroll gains were revised to 31,000 and 21,000. Average
hourly earnings rose 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annually. Payroll estimates remain
subject to revision.
- BEA's August 26 second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at 1.5%
annualized, following 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private
domestic purchasers grew 4.2% annualized, revised upward by 0.3 percentage
point. These are quarterly annualized measures.
## Prices and household spending
- BEA reported July headline and core PCE price increases of 0.2% each from
June. Their year-over-year increases were 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively.
- BEA reported July nominal consumption growth of 0.2%, real consumption
growth below 0.1%, disposable personal income growth of 0.5%, and a 3.0%
personal saving rate. The release revised April–June estimates.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29 the Federal Reserve retained the 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target
range by a 9–3 vote. The dissenting voters preferred a 0.25-percentage-point
increase. The statement described solid activity and inflation above 2%.
- CNBC's September 4 Treasury report, updated at 16:12 EDT, quoted two-year,
ten-year, and thirty-year yields of 4.377%, 4.784%, and 5.245%. These are
article-time quotes. It reported CME FedWatch pricing of a 58% probability
of a quarter-point September increase; that is a market-implied estimate,
not a policy decision.
## Equity-market observations
- CNBC reported September 4 closes of 53,414.25 for the Dow, 7,718.60 for the
S&P 500, and 26,506.99 for the Nasdaq Composite. Their session changes were
−0.51%, −0.38%, and −0.29%, respectively. Exchange-wide advancing/declining
issue counts and a current credit-spread observation are not supplied.
## International activity and prices
- Eurostat's August flash estimate, reported September 1 by CNBC, put annual
euro-area inflation at 3.3%, versus 2.9% in July. Energy inflation increased
to 14.3% from 10.3%, while core inflation decreased to 2.4% from 2.5%.
- China's official August manufacturing PMI was 49.8, versus 49.2 in July,
according to NBS data reported August 31 in China by CNBC. Production was
50.4, new orders 50.6, and new export orders 50.1; the headline was below
50 while those components were above 50.
## Energy and trade
- CNBC's September 4 energy report put U.S. nationwide diesel at $5.85 per
gallon, versus $3.71 in its year-earlier comparison. It reported refinery
interruptions in Russia and the Middle East.
- BEA and Census reported a July nominal goods-and-services deficit of $88.6
billion, versus revised June $71.2 billion. July exports were $310.7 billion
and imports $399.3 billion. The year-to-date deficit was 29.6% below the
comparable 2025 period. The figures are seasonally adjusted, not price-adjusted.
- On September 4 President Trump threatened to stop trade with countries
having trade surpluses with the U.S. unless the Federal Reserve cut rates,
CNBC reported. The report provided no implementation date or confirmation
of an enacted blanket trade halt.
## Scheduled events
The shared entry date is September 8. The weekly window ends September 15;
the monthly window ends October 8. NYSE is closed September 7 for Labor Day.
Dates below are scheduled, with outcomes unknown at the cutoff.
| Date | Publisher or institution | Scheduled event | Within scoring window |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| September 10 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August producer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 10 | ECB, as reported by CNBC | Monetary-policy decision | Weekly and monthly |
| September 11 | BLS, as reported by CNBC | August consumer prices | Weekly and monthly |
| September 15–16 | Federal Reserve | FOMC meeting and economic projections; decision September 16 | Decision is monthly only, after the weekly exit |
| September 24, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | Second-quarter international transactions and investment position | Monthly |
| September 30, 08:30 Eastern | BEA | GDP third estimate and annual updates; August personal income and outlays | Monthly |
| October 6, 08:30 Eastern | BEA and Census | August international trade | Monthly |
All facts and scheduled events remain descriptive context. No inclusion,
placement, or grouping expresses an expected return. The complete mechanical
appendix is descriptive price history, not a forecast.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "5354b668beb372567d4999964ddd24d6f49f43cbb4b475b3ee809ab1d75e1b4c",
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-04-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Favor high-quality relative pullbacks with low SPY correlation that are less exposed to a hawkish FOMC: cybersecurity (strong prior trend, shallow drawdown), regional banks (steep curve, stabilized), and copper (improving China orders and broad commodity bid). Avoid extended high-beta semis/Taiwan and crypto lacking in-window support, and treat discretionary, solar, and defense weakness as fundamentally grounded.
Stagflationary backdrop: payrolls slowed sharply after revisions, core PCE 3.3% and headline 3.7%, oil up 19% over 21 sessions, diesel near $5.85, and futures price a 58% chance of a September hike with 10y at 4.78%. SPY sits within 1% of its 52-week high, so the index is not pricing this. A hawkish FOMC on September 16 plus CPI/PPI is the key window event. Prefer candidates whose recent relative pullbacks are not tied to the hike/energy risk, and avoid long-duration growth and crypto whose short bursts lack in-window support.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 16 FOMC hike or hawkish projections triggers a high-beta selloff hitting cybersecurity and regional banks",
"Trade-halt threats against surplus countries escalate, hurting copper and global risk appetite",
"Hot CPI/PPI on September 10-11 pushes 10y yields above 5%, compressing all equity multiples",
"Energy-driven inflation reverses sharply, rotating flows back into extended semis and Taiwan that we underweight"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.51% with recent -2.08% active pullback and -4.03% five-session drop",
"Highest slate quality score 0.769; drawdown only -9.53% and volume z near neutral (0.10)",
"Low SPY correlation 0.52 gives some insulation from a hawkish FOMC index drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +4.31%, recent active -1.81%, quality score 0.764",
"Curve steep (2y 4.377% vs 30y 5.245%) supports net interest margin; beta only 0.72",
"Recent 5-session return +1.31% suggests pullback already stabilizing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"China August PMI components (production 50.4, new orders 50.6, export orders 50.1) improved while CPER fell -2.20% active",
"Broad commodities +10.12% active and oil +19% signal commodity bid; copper only 2.2% below 52w high",
"Low SPY correlation 0.56 and quality score 0.709"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.765 but 58% priced hike probability hurts rate-sensitive small caps",
"Recent active -0.96%, prior +4.46%, only 2.98% off 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.35%, pullback rank 0.970, but diesel $5.85 vs $3.71 raises transport costs",
"Payroll revisions to 31k/21k point to weakening activity"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; 0.99% below 52w high with 12.83% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.41% but volume z -1.40 shows fading participation",
"Beta 1.75 exposes it to a hawkish September 16 FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.78% and recent +9.79%, at 52w high; no independent catalyst in briefing",
"Volume z -1.07 and trade-halt threat against surplus countries adds risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.26% but 50% vol, -24.62% drawdown, 15% off 52w high",
"Beta 2.38 into a possible rate hike"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Real consumption growth below 0.1% in July, saving rate 3.0%, diesel $5.85",
"Prior active -11.30%, recent -2.91%; weakness aligned with fundamentals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.96% following prior -11.56%; persistent two-window underperformance",
"Volume z -0.45 shows no capitulation signal"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -11.12%, beta 2.21, volume z -1.32",
"Quality score 0.481 with -18.66% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +23.74% after prior -20.38%; still 36.55% below 52w high",
"Quality score 0.054; hawkish rate path is a headwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -18.72%, recent -6.48%, 35% below 52w high, drawdown -26.84%",
"Rate hike risk hurts financing-dependent solar; quality score 0.353"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +28.40% after prior -18.46%; 48% below 52w high, vol 53%",
"Lowest quality score 0.064; volume z 1.01 suggests crowded short-term move"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"COPPER": 30,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"COPPER"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Stagflationary backdrop: payrolls slowed sharply after revisions, core PCE 3.3% and headline 3.7%, oil up 19% over 21 sessions, diesel near $5.85, and futures price a 58% chance of a September hike with 10y at 4.78%. SPY sits within 1% of its 52-week high, so the index is not pricing this. A hawkish FOMC on September 16 plus CPI/PPI is the key window event. Prefer candidates whose recent relative pullbacks are not tied to the hike/energy risk, and avoid long-duration growth and crypto whose short bursts lack in-window support.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"COPPER"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor high-quality relative pullbacks with low SPY correlation that are less exposed to a hawkish FOMC: cybersecurity (strong prior trend, shallow drawdown), regional banks (steep curve, stabilized), and copper (improving China orders and broad commodity bid). Avoid extended high-beta semis/Taiwan and crypto lacking in-window support, and treat discretionary, solar, and defense weakness as fundamentally grounded.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Stagflationary backdrop: payrolls slowed sharply after revisions, core PCE 3.3% and headline 3.7%, oil up 19% over 21 sessions, diesel near $5.85, and futures price a 58% chance of a September hike with 10y at 4.78%. SPY sits within 1% of its 52-week high, so the index is not pricing this. A hawkish FOMC on September 16 plus CPI/PPI is the key window event. Prefer candidates whose recent relative pullbacks are not tied to the hike/energy risk, and avoid long-duration growth and crypto whose short bursts lack in-window support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27989,
"latency_seconds": 48.094659547903575,
"output_tokens": 3874,
"total_tokens": 31863
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only two candidates clear both the overreaction label and the 55% threshold: CIBR and KRE, both top-quality-score pullbacks with strong prior relative trends, moderate drawdowns, and no evidence of fundamental deterioration. COPPER is a third overreaction candidate but ranked below SMALL_CAP, so the remaining slot defaults to SPY, which is appropriate given hawkish FOMC risk within the window.
Macro backdrop is late-cycle with sticky inflation (PCE 3.7% y/y, euro-area 3.3%), a hawkish Fed pricing a 58% chance of a September hike, and 4.78% 10-year yields. Payrolls at 162k with weak revisions suggest slowing but not collapsing growth. Oil is up 19% over 21 sessions, adding an inflation impulse. In that mix, long-duration high-beta growth carries hike risk into the September 16 FOMC, while high-quality pullbacks with strong prior trends and moderate volatility (cybersecurity, regional banks, small caps) offer the cleanest mean-reversion setups. Dispersion is normal; no single mechanism dominates.
{
"confidence": 0.585,
"cost_usd": 0.23918,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A September 16 Fed rate increase (58% implied) hits high-beta growth and small-cap/regional-bank names",
"Sticky inflation with oil up 19% over 21 sessions could push the 10-year above 5% and compress equity multiples",
"Trade-policy threats announced September 4 could trigger a risk-off shock affecting cyclical and export-linked names",
"Mean-reversion setups in cybersecurity and regional banks may extend rather than revert if credit or earnings news deteriorates"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.769 with prior active rank 0.970",
"Recent -4.03% with prior 105s active +31.51%",
"Drawdown only -9.53% and volume z +0.10"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.764, prior active rank 0.851",
"Recent active -1.81% despite +4.31% prior active",
"Low beta 0.72 with steeper curve (30y 5.245%) supportive"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.765, prior active +4.46%",
"Recent active -0.96%, shallow -4.76% drawdown",
"Rate-hike risk into September 16 FOMC caps upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.709 with pullback rank 0.940",
"China August manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 with orders above 50",
"Only -2.20% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.41%, recent active +0.84%",
"Volume z -1.40 indicates fading participation",
"Beta 1.75 vulnerable to a hawkish FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.26%, top prior-trend rank 1.000",
"Volatility 50.1% and -24.62% drawdown",
"-15.23% below 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.35% on top of prior -5.62%",
"Pullback rank 0.970 but weak prior trend",
"Moderate vol 18.65%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"At 52-week high with +9.79% recent active",
"Prior active +31.78%",
"Volatility 38.7% with -19.83% drawdown history"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Real consumption growth below 0.1% in July, 3.0% saving rate",
"Recent active -2.91% after prior -11.30%",
"Diesel at $5.85 pressures household budgets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +23.74% after prior -20.38%",
"Volume z +0.69 confirms flows",
"-36.55% below 52-week high, quality score 0.054"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -11.12% and recent -0.98%",
"Beta 2.21, volatility 34.7%",
"Volume z -1.32"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +28.40% with volume z +1.01",
"Volatility 53.3%, beta 2.55",
"Lowest quality rank set in universe"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -19,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.96% following prior -11.56%",
"-10.90% below 52-week high",
"Persistent two-window underperformance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-35.02% below 52-week high with -26.84% drawdown",
"Recent active -6.48% after prior -18.72%",
"Quality score 0.353, volatility 38.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 12.83% volatility and -3.38% drawdown",
"Only -0.99% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +4.04% with beta 0.28 and low SPY correlation",
"Shallow -3.74% drawdown",
"Defensive ballast if the Fed hikes on September 16"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"REGIONAL_BANKS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Macro backdrop is late-cycle with sticky inflation (PCE 3.7% y/y, euro-area 3.3%), a hawkish Fed pricing a 58% chance of a September hike, and 4.78% 10-year yields. Payrolls at 162k with weak revisions suggest slowing but not collapsing growth. Oil is up 19% over 21 sessions, adding an inflation impulse. In that mix, long-duration high-beta growth carries hike risk into the September 16 FOMC, while high-quality pullbacks with strong prior trends and moderate volatility (cybersecurity, regional banks, small caps) offer the cleanest mean-reversion setups. Dispersion is normal; no single mechanism dominates.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only two candidates clear both the overreaction label and the 55% threshold: CIBR and KRE, both top-quality-score pullbacks with strong prior relative trends, moderate drawdowns, and no evidence of fundamental deterioration. COPPER is a third overreaction candidate but ranked below SMALL_CAP, so the remaining slot defaults to SPY, which is appropriate given hawkish FOMC risk within the window.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Macro backdrop is late-cycle with sticky inflation (PCE 3.7% y/y, euro-area 3.3%), a hawkish Fed pricing a 58% chance of a September hike, and 4.78% 10-year yields. Payrolls at 162k with weak revisions suggest slowing but not collapsing growth. Oil is up 19% over 21 sessions, adding an inflation impulse. In that mix, long-duration high-beta growth carries hike risk into the September 16 FOMC, while high-quality pullbacks with strong prior trends and moderate volatility (cybersecurity, regional banks, small caps) offer the cleanest mean-reversion setups. Dispersion is normal; no single mechanism dominates.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.23918,
"input_tokens": 27981,
"latency_seconds": 83.1981282349443,
"output_tokens": 3971,
"total_tokens": 31952
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks but maintain solid fundamentals or quality scores, anticipating a reversal in the short term. Aerospace & Defense, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary fit this profile.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but softening labor data and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming Fed meeting is a key catalyst, with markets pricing in a rate hike despite some signs of economic cooling.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The upcoming Fed meeting could introduce volatility if the rate decision or commentary surprises the market.",
"Continued softening in labor data could weigh on consumer discretionary and broader market sentiment."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.10% and prior active return of -11.56%.",
"Quality score of 0.554."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.25% and prior active return of -18.72%.",
"High volatility of 38.47%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.06% and prior active return of -5.62%.",
"Quality score of 0.684."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.96% and prior active return of -11.30%.",
"Quality score of 0.583."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.71% and prior active return of -0.51%.",
"Quality score of 0.709."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 2.51% and prior active return of 35.26%.",
"High volatility of 50.12%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 3.97% and prior active return of 31.78%.",
"Quality score of 0.491."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.03% and prior active return of 31.51%.",
"Quality score of 0.769."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.82% and prior active return of -18.46%.",
"High volatility of 53.28%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 3.03% and prior active return of -20.38%.",
"High volatility of 39.14%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.09% and prior active return of 4.46%.",
"Quality score of 0.765."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.31% and prior active return of 4.31%.",
"Quality score of 0.764."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.86% and prior active return of 20.41%.",
"Quality score of 0.578."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.06% and prior active return of -11.12%.",
"Quality score of 0.481."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE": 35,
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY": 30,
"INDUSTRIALS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but softening labor data and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming Fed meeting is a key catalyst, with markets pricing in a rate hike despite some signs of economic cooling.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks but maintain solid fundamentals or quality scores, anticipating a reversal in the short term. Aerospace & Defense, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary fit this profile.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals, with solid GDP growth but softening labor data and persistent inflation concerns. The upcoming Fed meeting is a key catalyst, with markets pricing in a rate hike despite some signs of economic cooling.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19168,
"latency_seconds": 24.850723355077207,
"output_tokens": 3264,
"total_tokens": 22432
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Energy has the strongest independent continuation support, but correctly does not qualify under the overreaction-only rule. Copper and cybersecurity narrowly qualify as selective reversal judgments; neither warrants high confidence. Other pullbacks lack sufficient evidence to clear the eligibility threshold, leaving the unused slot in SPY.
Cross-sectional return spreads are wide despite nearly flat SPY and equal-weight monthly returns; the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. Energy disruptions provide independent support for selected commodity-linked strength, while elevated inflation and September hike risk challenge financing-sensitive equities. Reversal opportunities are selective rather than a blanket bet on recent losers. Quality scores are price-derived evidence, not evidence of corporate profitability or valuation.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"cost_usd": 0.33509,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September inflation releases and the September 16 FOMC decision could push yields higher and invalidate the cybersecurity reversal.",
"Implementation of trade restrictions could overwhelm improving Chinese orders and depress copper demand expectations.",
"Refinery restoration or easing energy disruptions could reverse energy leadership before October 8.",
"Price-derived quality scores may mistake persistent fundamental deterioration for temporary pullbacks; sector earnings and valuation evidence are absent."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Refinery interruptions in Russia and the Middle East and diesel at $5.85 provide specific supply-related support absent from the slate.",
"Monthly active return is 9.93%, but prior active return was -10.68%; substantial good news may already be priced.",
"Volatility of 22.34% is substantially below crude oil's 52.03%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly relative pullback of 2.20 percentage points contrasts with China's improving manufacturing PMI and new orders of 50.6.",
"Quality score is 0.709, with a much smaller prior relative loss of 0.51 percentage points.",
"Trade threats and a still-sub-50 headline PMI limit conviction in a demand-led rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"A 4.03% five-session decline and 2.08-point monthly relative pullback follow 31.51 points of prior relative strength.",
"Quality score is 0.769; drawdown of 9.53% is shallower than semiconductor and robotics drawdowns.",
"Volume z-score is 0.10, not an extreme liquidation signal; no sector-specific deterioration or positive catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score of 0.764 combines positive prior active return of 4.31 points with a 1.81-point relative pullback.",
"Ten-year yields exceed two-year yields, but a potential September hike introduces deposit-cost and credit risks.",
"No current credit-spread or bank-specific credit-quality evidence is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The 9.96-point monthly relative loss warrants a reversal test, but follows another 11.56-point prior relative loss.",
"Volume z-score of -0.45 does not establish forced selling.",
"No defense-budget or aircraft-order catalyst is supplied to distinguish overreaction from persistent weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY's monthly return is 0.21%, with 12.83% volatility and a 3.38% drawdown.",
"Private domestic final sales grew 4.2% annualized, while inflation remains above target.",
"SPY has identically zero excess return against itself."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score is 0.765 and prior relative return is positive 4.46 points.",
"The monthly relative pullback is only 0.96 point, offering limited evidence of an extreme dislocation.",
"Solid private final sales help domestic exposure, but a 58% market-implied hike probability challenges financing conditions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly and prior active returns are -5.35 and -5.62 points, respectively.",
"Private domestic final-sales growth supports a rebound case, but expensive diesel and trade threats provide economic reasons for weakness.",
"Volume z-score of -0.85 offers no capitulation confirmation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior relative strength of 20.41 points lacks a supplied earnings or valuation catalyst for continuation.",
"Volume z-score of -1.40 indicates reduced activity rather than a demonstrated positive dislocation.",
"Beta of 1.75 and elevated yields create sensitivity to September inflation and policy outcomes."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 35.26 points is strong, but the monthly relative pullback is only 0.99 point.",
"Volatility is 50.12% and drawdown is 24.62%, weakening the apparent quality-score advantage.",
"No semiconductor-specific fundamental catalyst is supplied; trade threats and rates are material near-term risks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly relative strength of 9.79 points and a 52-week high leave no meaningful pullback.",
"Volatility is 38.66% and prior drawdown is 19.83%.",
"The supplied trade threat is a risk to export and semiconductor exposure, not independent support for momentum."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly active return of 23.74 points reverses prior underperformance of 20.38 points.",
"Volume z-score of 0.69 confirms greater activity but does not identify flows or their persistence.",
"Quality score is 0.054 and no digital-asset catalyst is supplied to offset monetary-tightening risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Real consumption growth was below 0.1%, with a 3.0% saving rate.",
"High diesel prices and above-target inflation pressure household purchasing power.",
"The 2.91-point monthly relative loss follows an 11.30-point prior relative loss, consistent with persistent pressure rather than isolated panic."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return is -11.12 points and monthly active return is -0.98 point.",
"Volume z-score of -1.32 does not demonstrate forced liquidation or renewed demand.",
"Beta of 2.21 and drawdown of 18.66% increase policy-event risk; no robotics-specific catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly relative gain of 28.40 points follows a prior relative loss of 18.46 points.",
"Volatility is 53.28%, beta is 2.55, and quality score is 0.064.",
"Elevated volume is not accompanied by supplied network, regulatory, or flow evidence supporting continuation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Monthly underperformance of 6.48 points follows prior underperformance of 18.72 points.",
"The 26.84% drawdown and 35.02% distance below the high warrant a rebound test, but quality score is only 0.353.",
"Elevated yields and potential tightening challenge financing-sensitive exposure; no offsetting solar-policy or earnings catalyst is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"COPPER": 35,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Cross-sectional return spreads are wide despite nearly flat SPY and equal-weight monthly returns; the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. Energy disruptions provide independent support for selected commodity-linked strength, while elevated inflation and September hike risk challenge financing-sensitive equities. Reversal opportunities are selective rather than a blanket bet on recent losers. Quality scores are price-derived evidence, not evidence of corporate profitability or valuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"ENERGY",
"COPPER",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Energy has the strongest independent continuation support, but correctly does not qualify under the overreaction-only rule. Copper and cybersecurity narrowly qualify as selective reversal judgments; neither warrants high confidence. Other pullbacks lack sufficient evidence to clear the eligibility threshold, leaving the unused slot in SPY.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Cross-sectional return spreads are wide despite nearly flat SPY and equal-weight monthly returns; the aggregate dispersion statistic is missing. Energy disruptions provide independent support for selected commodity-linked strength, while elevated inflation and September hike risk challenge financing-sensitive equities. Reversal opportunities are selective rather than a blanket bet on recent losers. Quality scores are price-derived evidence, not evidence of corporate profitability or valuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.33509,
"input_tokens": 15889,
"latency_seconds": 48.760475410032086,
"output_tokens": 3524,
"reasoning_tokens": 63,
"total_tokens": 19413
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks assigned to high-quality pullbacks with overreaction labels meeting 55%+ beat probability threshold.
Downward employment revisions and persistent inflation create mixed signals favoring quality pullbacks with reversal potential over one month.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC decision outcome",
"Inflation data surprises",
"Employment revision volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.769",
"Recent active -2.08%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.765",
"Recent active -0.96%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.764",
"Recent active -1.81%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 39,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.709"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.701",
"Recent return 2.51%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 9.79%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 23.74%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 0.84%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark return 0.11%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.35%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.91%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.96%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.48%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -0.98%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active 28.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 30,
"SMALL_CAP": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Downward employment revisions and persistent inflation create mixed signals favoring quality pullbacks with reversal potential over one month.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks assigned to high-quality pullbacks with overreaction labels meeting 55%+ beat probability threshold.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Downward employment revisions and persistent inflation create mixed signals favoring quality pullbacks with reversal potential over one month.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16105,
"latency_seconds": 27.95250530797057,
"output_tokens": 1941,
"reasoning_tokens": 997,
"total_tokens": 19043
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Quality pullbacks in cybersecurity and industrials/aerospace after sharp relative weakness offer the cleanest one-month reversal edges versus SPY; other slate names either show fragile continuation, high vol without support, or insufficient probability. Prefer SPY overall given hike odds and sticky inflation limiting broad risk-on.
Sticky PCE near 3.3-3.7%, soft Q2 GDP 1.5%, 58% odds of Sept hike, and elevated oil/diesel create mixed one-month backdrop; recent sector pullbacks in quality names offer selective reversal potential while mega-cap/tech continuation is fragile and crypto strength lacks fundamental support.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September FOMC hike realization or hawkish projections could pressure beta>1 equities",
"Further oil/diesel spikes from refinery issues may hit discretionary and industrials margins",
"Trade-threat rhetoric escalation could reverse any defense or export-sensitive bounce",
"Crypto or semi momentum fade could spill into broader tech correlation"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -2.08% after prior active +31.51%",
"Highest quality evidence score 0.769 among slate",
"Volume z near neutral 0.10 with moderate 31.86% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.10% and active -9.96% with max drawdown -11.79%",
"Quality pullback rank 1.000 in evidence table",
"Beta near 1.03 and corr 0.57 leave room for mean-reversion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active return -5.35% recent after prior -5.62%",
"Quality evidence score 0.684 with recent pullback rank 0.970",
"Horizon vol 18.65% lower than growth peers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.764 with strong prior active rank 0.851",
"Recent active -1.81% and low SPY corr 0.41",
"Horizon max drawdown only -6.81%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence 0.765 and prior active +4.46%",
"Recent active -0.96% with vol 14.78%",
"Distance to 52w high only -2.98%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.709 with recent pullback rank 0.940",
"China PMI components above 50 on new orders",
"Active recent -2.20% after mild prior"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -1.96% and active -2.91% after prior -11.30%",
"Pullback rank 0.955 in quality table",
"Volume z -1.29 indicates dislocation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.41% with recent +0.84%",
"Volume z deeply negative -1.40",
"Beta 1.75 elevates rate-hike sensitivity"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.26% extreme strength",
"Recent active -0.99% mild pullback",
"Vol 50.12% and drawdown -24.62% high risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.97% and active +9.79% after prior +31.78%",
"At 52w high distance 0.00%",
"High vol 38.66% and beta 1.83"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Deep prior active -18.72% and recent -6.48%",
"Quality score low 0.353 with 52w distance -35%",
"Vol 38.47% and drawdown -26.84%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent near-flat -0.06% after prior active -11.12%",
"Volume z -1.32 dislocation",
"High beta 2.21 and drawdown -18.66%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.03% and active +23.74% short-term surge",
"Quality score very low 0.054",
"Vol 39.14% and 52w distance -36.55%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active +28.40% extreme short continuation",
"Quality 0.064 lowest tier",
"Vol 53.28% and distance -48.25%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark recent +0.11% with vol 12.83%",
"Near 52w high -0.99%",
"Serves as neutral reference amid mixed dispersion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE": 35,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"INDUSTRIALS": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"INDUSTRIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Sticky PCE near 3.3-3.7%, soft Q2 GDP 1.5%, 58% odds of Sept hike, and elevated oil/diesel create mixed one-month backdrop; recent sector pullbacks in quality names offer selective reversal potential while mega-cap/tech continuation is fragile and crypto strength lacks fundamental support.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"INDUSTRIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Quality pullbacks in cybersecurity and industrials/aerospace after sharp relative weakness offer the cleanest one-month reversal edges versus SPY; other slate names either show fragile continuation, high vol without support, or insufficient probability. Prefer SPY overall given hike odds and sticky inflation limiting broad risk-on.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Sticky PCE near 3.3-3.7%, soft Q2 GDP 1.5%, 58% odds of Sept hike, and elevated oil/diesel create mixed one-month backdrop; recent sector pullbacks in quality names offer selective reversal potential while mega-cap/tech continuation is fragile and crypto strength lacks fundamental support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17141,
"latency_seconds": 49.586376455030404,
"output_tokens": 3096,
"reasoning_tokens": 364,
"total_tokens": 20601
}
}xai-grok-4-6
The only names with a fair one-month reversal case versus a near-high, low-vol SPY are quality/shock pullbacks (CIBR, ITA, XLI). Even those edges are modest given 58% hike odds, sticky 3.7% PCE, and a September 16 FOMC inside the window, so the diagnostic preference is still SPY unless the eligibility rule fires.
SPY is near a 52-week high with low horizon vol while cross-asset 5-session returns are wide (oil/crypto/EM vs software/cyber/defense). Sticky PCE, mixed payrolls with downward revisions, and 58% implied odds of a September hike plus a mid-window FOMC create a mixed one-month setup rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"CME FedWatch 58% probability of a September hike and the September 16 FOMC decision sit inside the scoring window.",
"July core PCE 3.3% y/y and euro-area flash inflation 3.3% keep real-rate risk elevated for high-beta growth and duration-sensitive cyclicals.",
"Presidential trade-surplus threat reported September 4 is an unpriced policy shock for industrials, discretionary, and Taiwan/semis.",
"Oil 5-session +9.45% and diesel $5.85 raise cost-push risk into CPI/PPI prints on September 10–11."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -4.03% with prior active +31.51% and quality evidence score 0.769.",
"Horizon max drawdown -9.53% is shallower than many growth peers despite 31.86% vol.",
"Volume z 0.10 is not a liquidation spike versus other tech names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -3.10% and recent active -9.96% with the highest recent-pullback rank in quality evidence (1.000).",
"SPY beta 1.03 and corr 0.57 imply less mega-cap concentration than XLK/SMH.",
"52w-high distance -10.90% after a -11.79% horizon drawdown."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -1.06% and recent active -5.35% with quality evidence score 0.684 and recent-pullback rank 0.970.",
"Horizon vol 18.65% and max drawdown -7.39% are milder than other shock-reversal names.",
"SPY beta 0.95 keeps tracking error moderate versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -1.96% with prior active -11.30% and recent-pullback rank 0.955.",
"July real consumption growth below 0.1% is a demand headwind even if the price drop looks stretched.",
"Volume z -1.29 shows thin recent trading rather than confirmed capitulation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.765 with prior active +4.46% and only -0.96% recent active.",
"Horizon vol 14.78% and drawdown -4.76% are close to SPY risk.",
"SPY corr 0.82 limits independent one-month excess."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.764 with recent active -1.81% after prior active +4.31%.",
"SPY corr 0.41 and beta 0.72 give diversification but FOMC/hike pricing is a curve risk.",
"52w-high distance only -3.41%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +0.71% with recent active -2.20% and quality score 0.709.",
"China August manufacturing PMI 49.8 with new orders 50.6 is mixed industrial-demand evidence.",
"Horizon vol 22.89% and beta 1.25 versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "COPPER",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return 0.11% and 21-session 0.21% with horizon vol 12.83% and drawdown -3.38%.",
"Distance to 52w high -0.99%.",
"September 16 FOMC sits inside the monthly scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +20.41% with recent return +0.86% and volume z -1.40.",
"Quality evidence score 0.578 with high prior-active rank 0.955.",
"Beta 1.75 and vol 32.09% raise hike-week drawdown risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +3.97% and recent active +9.79% after prior active +31.78%.",
"Distance to 52w high 0.00% with vol 38.66%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.491 with very low pullback rank 0.090."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.26% is the strongest prior trend on the slate; recent active -0.99%.",
"Horizon vol 50.12% and max drawdown -24.62% with beta 2.38.",
"Quality score 0.701 is high but driven by trend, not low risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +23.74% after prior active -20.38%; quality score 0.054.",
"Horizon vol 39.14% and 52w-high distance -36.55%.",
"SPY corr 0.49 leaves large idiosyncratic path risk into FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +28.40% after prior active -18.46%; quality score 0.064.",
"Horizon vol 53.28% and 52w-high distance -48.25%.",
"Beta 2.55 versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -0.06% with prior active -11.12% and volume z -1.32.",
"Horizon vol 34.73% and drawdown -18.66%; quality score 0.481.",
"Beta 2.21 versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -18.72% and recent active -6.48% with 52w-high distance -35.02%.",
"Horizon vol 38.47% and max drawdown -26.84%; quality score 0.353.",
"Beta 1.88 leaves large downside if rates reprice higher at FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"COPPER",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"TAIWAN",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_CAP",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE": 35,
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"INDUSTRIALS": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "COPPER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"INDUSTRIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low horizon vol while cross-asset 5-session returns are wide (oil/crypto/EM vs software/cyber/defense). Sticky PCE, mixed payrolls with downward revisions, and 58% implied odds of a September hike plus a mid-window FOMC create a mixed one-month setup rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"INDUSTRIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The only names with a fair one-month reversal case versus a near-high, low-vol SPY are quality/shock pullbacks (CIBR, ITA, XLI). Even those edges are modest given 58% hike odds, sticky 3.7% PCE, and a September 16 FOMC inside the window, so the diagnostic preference is still SPY unless the eligibility rule fires.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high with low horizon vol while cross-asset 5-session returns are wide (oil/crypto/EM vs software/cyber/defense). Sticky PCE, mixed payrolls with downward revisions, and 58% implied odds of a September hike plus a mid-window FOMC create a mixed one-month setup rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-04-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17283,
"latency_seconds": 48.7351793970447,
"output_tokens": 2974,
"reasoning_tokens": 644,
"total_tokens": 20901
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Regional Banks (KRE)35%Copper (CPER)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Regional Banks (KRE)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Industrials Sector (XLI)35%Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | Copper (CPER)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%Regional Banks (KRE)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Industrials Sector (XLI)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Industrials Sector (XLI)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | befe1aa32232...7348ca10 |
| manifest.yaml | aab9db42aeea...d62a009f |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 93183aa36998...4279bea0 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 0d261a54781b...4a95588c |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 5354b668beb3...d75e1b4c |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | f6cfdd42be62...35647504 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | efb17593a944...1efc9b7b |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 0858f667d3f8...813ce189 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |