7 valid portfolios
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
Round audit packet
CB-2026-09-01-1M
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Test CB-2026-09-01-1M pending
Portfolios Frozen By 2026-09-02
Start Date 2026-09-02
End Date 2026-10-02
Run ID official-v3-20260901-monthly
- 1 Inputs saved
11 public audit hashes are available.
- 2 Portfolios collected
7 valid model portfolios.
- 3 Start priced
0 starting-price rows published.
- 4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-10-02 prices are available.
Round state
Pending Score Pending
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
70 saved choices
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Ending prices pending
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
Input audit hashes
11 artifacts published.
Public run selected
official-v3-20260901-monthly
Model-facing prompt available
35,008 shared prompt characters.
Ending prices pending
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Model consensus
Score pending Where Models Concentrated In This Round
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Interim tracking
Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
Live chart pending
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
Saved model-facing context Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a
small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Prompt And Input Packet
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 35,008 characters
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- Decision date: 2026-09-01
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-01T05:56:06Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-02T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-09-02
- Exit date: 2026-10-02
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Factual Briefing — September 1, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-09-01T05:56:06Z**. Latest fully completed U.S. cash-equity session: **August 31, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. market close and rates
- The Associated Press reported that on August 31 the S&P 500 closed at 7,686.14, down 0.3%; the Dow closed at 53,185.90, down 0.7%; the Nasdaq closed at 26,370.89, down 0.1%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,956.45, down 0.5%. Nearly every S&P 500 sector finished lower while energy gained. The S&P 500 rose 2.6% in August and the Nasdaq rose 3.9%.
- Brent crude settled at $90.49 per barrel on August 31, up 2.7% for the session. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75% from 4.73%, according to the same AP report.
- The Federal Reserve's August 31 H.15 release listed August 28 constant-maturity Treasury yields of 4.15% at one year, 4.34% at two years, 4.48% at five years, 4.73% at ten years, and 5.22% at thirty years. The effective federal funds rate was 3.63%.
## U.S. monetary policy and prices
- On July 29 the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16.
- In an August 28 speech, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that 12-month PCE inflation was 3.7% and the six-month change was 4.1%. He described the 2% PCE objective as fixed, characterized labor markets as consistent with full employment, and committed to a policy discipline rather than a specific rate decision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July CPI rose 0.1% seasonally adjusted and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over 12 months. Recent chained-CPI values remain subject to revision.
- The July final-demand PPI was unchanged for the month and rose 4.7% over 12 months. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7%. July PPI values were preliminary, and March-through-June values included revisions.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in July personal income rose 0.4%, disposable personal income rose 0.5%, current-dollar personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%, real PCE was little changed, and the personal saving rate was 3.0%. Headline and food-and-energy-excluding PCE price indexes each rose 0.2% for the month and rose 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, over 12 months.
## U.S. growth, labor, and production
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, real GDI rose 2.2%, and the average of real GDP and real GDI rose 1.8%. BEA's September 30 annual update will supersede these estimates.
- BLS reported July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000, a 4.1% unemployment rate, 61.4% labor-force participation, and 3.2% year-over-year average-hourly-earnings growth. May and June payroll gains were revised down by a combined 103,000. Monthly payroll estimates are revised when additional reports arrive.
- BLS's preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark estimated a -79,000 revision, or -0.1%, to total nonfarm employment and a -178,000 revision, or -0.1%, to private employment. Official monthly estimates have not yet been changed; the final benchmark is scheduled for February 2027.
- Federal Reserve data showed July industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2%. Total industrial production was 1.1% above a year earlier and capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. July values were preliminary.
- Census estimated July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% (±0.4%) from June and up 5.0% (±0.5%) from July 2025. The estimates are not adjusted for price changes.
- Census's advance indicators put July durable-goods orders at $339.3 billion, up 1.1%; the July goods-trade deficit at $118.8 billion, up $17.4 billion; wholesale inventories up 1.3% (±0.2%); and retail inventories up 0.7% (±0.2%). These are advance estimates subject to later revision.
## Housing and energy
- Census estimated July housing starts at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% (±9.5%) from June and 13.5% (±11.0%) from a year earlier. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from a year earlier.
- Census and HUD estimated July new single-family home sales at a 607,000 annual rate, down 10.5% (±14.0%) from June and 6.3% (±19.6%) from a year earlier; neither change was statistically conclusive at the stated confidence level. For-sale inventory represented 9.6 months of supply, and the median sales price was $393,800.
- The Energy Information Administration's August forecast, completed August 6, projected Brent crude to average about $85 per barrel in the third quarter, $87 for full-year 2026, and $69 in 2027. It forecast U.S. crude production of 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.2 million in 2027. These forecasts depend on EIA's assumptions about production and shipping disruptions.
- EIA reported total U.S. crude-oil and petroleum-product stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 1.535 billion barrels for the week ended August 21, down from 1.539 billion one week earlier. Weekly values are estimates and may not sum because of independent rounding.
## International and company-reported data
- Eurostat reported final July euro-area annual inflation of 2.9%. Energy contributed 0.94 percentage point and services 1.55 percentage points. The European Central Bank kept its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July industrial value added up 4.5% from a year earlier, retail sales up 0.6%, CPI up 0.5%, and manufacturing PMI at 49.2. Fixed-asset investment for January through July fell 6.7% from the corresponding 2025 period.
- NVIDIA reported fiscal-2027 second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%, and GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%.
- Salesforce reported fiscal-2027 second-quarter revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11% from a year earlier, and current remaining performance obligation of $33.5 billion, up 14% in constant currency. Its company guidance put fiscal-2027 revenue at $46.1–$46.4 billion, conditional on stated acquisition and currency assumptions.
## Scheduled releases and events
Times are Eastern Time. Publisher schedules can change.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m.: BLS July JOLTS and Census July construction spending. Eurostat's August flash inflation estimate is also scheduled for September 1.
- September 2: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Broadcom fiscal-2026 third-quarter results after the U.S. market close.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m.: BEA/Census July international trade and BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to discuss the economic outlook at 8:30 a.m.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m.: BLS August Employment Situation.
- September 7: NYSE markets closed for Labor Day.
- September 9: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and BLS Employer Costs for Employee Compensation.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m.: BLS August PPI. September 11, 8:30 a.m.: BLS August CPI.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting, with the decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. and the press conference for 2:30 p.m. on September 16. Census August retail sales are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. that day.
- September 18: Federal Reserve August industrial production. September 24: BEA second-quarter international transactions and investment position and Census August new-home sales.
- September 30, 8:30 a.m.: BEA third estimate of second-quarter GDP and August personal income and outlays, both incorporating BEA's 2026 annual update.
This briefing contains fixed, cutoff-safe datapoints and publisher-labeled forecasts or estimates only. It provides no ranking, recommendation, option mapping, or selected mechanical performance context. The complete mechanical appendices are generated separately and retain frozen option order.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Base Instructions prompt.md
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.Round Manifest manifest.yaml
round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-01-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-01'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-02T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-01T05:59:13.362650+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-02'
exit_date: '2026-10-02'
created_at: '2026-09-01T05:59:13.362650+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh September 1, 2026 public-web research; no prior input report reused. Latest completed U.S. session: August 31, 2026.'Briefing briefing.md
# CapitalBench Fixed Factual Briefing — September 1, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-09-01T05:56:06Z**. Latest fully completed U.S. cash-equity session: **August 31, 2026**.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. market close and rates
- The Associated Press reported that on August 31 the S&P 500 closed at 7,686.14, down 0.3%; the Dow closed at 53,185.90, down 0.7%; the Nasdaq closed at 26,370.89, down 0.1%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,956.45, down 0.5%. Nearly every S&P 500 sector finished lower while energy gained. The S&P 500 rose 2.6% in August and the Nasdaq rose 3.9%.
- Brent crude settled at $90.49 per barrel on August 31, up 2.7% for the session. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75% from 4.73%, according to the same AP report.
- The Federal Reserve's August 31 H.15 release listed August 28 constant-maturity Treasury yields of 4.15% at one year, 4.34% at two years, 4.48% at five years, 4.73% at ten years, and 5.22% at thirty years. The effective federal funds rate was 3.63%.
## U.S. monetary policy and prices
- On July 29 the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16.
- In an August 28 speech, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated that 12-month PCE inflation was 3.7% and the six-month change was 4.1%. He described the 2% PCE objective as fixed, characterized labor markets as consistent with full employment, and committed to a policy discipline rather than a specific rate decision.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that July CPI rose 0.1% seasonally adjusted and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over 12 months. Recent chained-CPI values remain subject to revision.
- The July final-demand PPI was unchanged for the month and rose 4.7% over 12 months. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7%. July PPI values were preliminary, and March-through-June values included revisions.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that in July personal income rose 0.4%, disposable personal income rose 0.5%, current-dollar personal consumption expenditures rose 0.2%, real PCE was little changed, and the personal saving rate was 3.0%. Headline and food-and-energy-excluding PCE price indexes each rose 0.2% for the month and rose 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, over 12 months.
## U.S. growth, labor, and production
- BEA's second estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 4.2%, real GDI rose 2.2%, and the average of real GDP and real GDI rose 1.8%. BEA's September 30 annual update will supersede these estimates.
- BLS reported July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000, a 4.1% unemployment rate, 61.4% labor-force participation, and 3.2% year-over-year average-hourly-earnings growth. May and June payroll gains were revised down by a combined 103,000. Monthly payroll estimates are revised when additional reports arrive.
- BLS's preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark estimated a -79,000 revision, or -0.1%, to total nonfarm employment and a -178,000 revision, or -0.1%, to private employment. Official monthly estimates have not yet been changed; the final benchmark is scheduled for February 2027.
- Federal Reserve data showed July industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2%. Total industrial production was 1.1% above a year earlier and capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. July values were preliminary.
- Census estimated July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% (±0.4%) from June and up 5.0% (±0.5%) from July 2025. The estimates are not adjusted for price changes.
- Census's advance indicators put July durable-goods orders at $339.3 billion, up 1.1%; the July goods-trade deficit at $118.8 billion, up $17.4 billion; wholesale inventories up 1.3% (±0.2%); and retail inventories up 0.7% (±0.2%). These are advance estimates subject to later revision.
## Housing and energy
- Census estimated July housing starts at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% (±9.5%) from June and 13.5% (±11.0%) from a year earlier. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from a year earlier.
- Census and HUD estimated July new single-family home sales at a 607,000 annual rate, down 10.5% (±14.0%) from June and 6.3% (±19.6%) from a year earlier; neither change was statistically conclusive at the stated confidence level. For-sale inventory represented 9.6 months of supply, and the median sales price was $393,800.
- The Energy Information Administration's August forecast, completed August 6, projected Brent crude to average about $85 per barrel in the third quarter, $87 for full-year 2026, and $69 in 2027. It forecast U.S. crude production of 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 14.2 million in 2027. These forecasts depend on EIA's assumptions about production and shipping disruptions.
- EIA reported total U.S. crude-oil and petroleum-product stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve of 1.535 billion barrels for the week ended August 21, down from 1.539 billion one week earlier. Weekly values are estimates and may not sum because of independent rounding.
## International and company-reported data
- Eurostat reported final July euro-area annual inflation of 2.9%. Energy contributed 0.94 percentage point and services 1.55 percentage points. The European Central Bank kept its deposit, main-refinancing, and marginal-lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July industrial value added up 4.5% from a year earlier, retail sales up 0.6%, CPI up 0.5%, and manufacturing PMI at 49.2. Fixed-asset investment for January through July fell 6.7% from the corresponding 2025 period.
- NVIDIA reported fiscal-2027 second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% from a year earlier, data-center revenue of $89.0 billion, up 117%, and GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin of 75.0%.
- Salesforce reported fiscal-2027 second-quarter revenue of $11.3 billion, up 11% from a year earlier, and current remaining performance obligation of $33.5 billion, up 14% in constant currency. Its company guidance put fiscal-2027 revenue at $46.1–$46.4 billion, conditional on stated acquisition and currency assumptions.
## Scheduled releases and events
Times are Eastern Time. Publisher schedules can change.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m.: BLS July JOLTS and Census July construction spending. Eurostat's August flash inflation estimate is also scheduled for September 1.
- September 2: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; Broadcom fiscal-2026 third-quarter results after the U.S. market close.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m.: BEA/Census July international trade and BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is scheduled to discuss the economic outlook at 8:30 a.m.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m.: BLS August Employment Situation.
- September 7: NYSE markets closed for Labor Day.
- September 9: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and BLS Employer Costs for Employee Compensation.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m.: BLS August PPI. September 11, 8:30 a.m.: BLS August CPI.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting, with the decision scheduled for 2:00 p.m. and the press conference for 2:30 p.m. on September 16. Census August retail sales are scheduled for 8:30 a.m. that day.
- September 18: Federal Reserve August industrial production. September 24: BEA second-quarter international transactions and investment position and Census August new-home sales.
- September 30, 8:30 a.m.: BEA third estimate of second-quarter GDP and August personal income and outlays, both incorporating BEA's 2026 annual update.
This briefing contains fixed, cutoff-safe datapoints and publisher-labeled forecasts or estimates only. It provides no ranking, recommendation, option mapping, or selected mechanical performance context. The complete mechanical appendices are generated separately and retain frozen option order.Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.Source Options YAML options.yaml
options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."Round Hashes hashes.json
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}Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 7 model calls
For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-01-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF Parsed provider responses Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded
from the public site.
Model Outputs
These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
Anthropic
Claude Fable 5
anthropic-claude-fable-5
3 holdings Regional Banks (KRE)
Regional Banks (KRE) 35% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 35% Real Estate Sector (XLRE) 30%
- Confidence
- 0.56
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Top picks are the highest quality-pullback candidates: regional banks, small value, and real estate all had positive or improving prior relative trends with recent flow-driven dips, low drawdowns, and modest vol. Soft labor data ahead of the Sept 16 FOMC gives rate-sensitives a plausible tailwind, while extended tech/crypto/oil momentum lacks fresh in-window support.
SPY near highs (+2.6% August) but breadth deteriorating (RSP-SPY -1.5% 5s, positive share 39% over 5 sessions). Sticky inflation (PCE 3.7%) with hawkish Fed and 10y at 4.75% caps upside; quality pullbacks in strong-prior groups (regional banks, small value) offer the best reversal setups into the Sept FOMC.
Portfolio
- Regional Banks (KRE): 35% - V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- US Small-Cap Value (IWN): 35% - V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- Real Estate Sector (XLRE): 30% - V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY.
Key Risks
- Hawkish FOMC on Sept 16 or hot Aug CPI/PPI would hurt rate-sensitive picks (KRE, XLRE)
- Very weak Sept 4 payrolls could trigger credit/recession fears hitting regional banks and small caps
- Continued mega-cap tech leadership would leave all breadth-oriented picks lagging SPY
- Brent above $90 sustaining inflation pressure keeps yields elevated
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC on Sept 16 or hot Aug CPI/PPI would hurt rate-sensitive picks (KRE, XLRE)",
"Very weak Sept 4 payrolls could trigger credit/recession fears hitting regional banks and small caps",
"Continued mega-cap tech leadership would leave all breadth-oriented picks lagging SPY",
"Brent above $90 sustaining inflation pressure keeps yields elevated"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.801 with prior active +5.59% and recent -5.76% pullback",
"Shallow drawdown -5.61% and moderate vol 18.9%",
"No adverse bank-specific news in briefing; pullback appears flow-driven"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.760: prior active +3.57% with recent -2.68% dip",
"Low vol 13.4% and shallow -2.6% drawdown vs peers"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.715 with deep recent pullback rank 0.940",
"Weak payrolls (-23k July, -103k revisions) raise odds rate pressure eases into FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34% and recent +8.6%; only -2% from 52w high",
"No independent in-window catalyst supplied; extended positioning"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"NVIDIA revenue +106% y/y supports tech earnings, but prior active +17.5% already extended",
"High vol 35% and volume z -1.30"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"NVIDIA data-center revenue $89B +117% y/y; Broadcom results Sept 2",
"Vol 53.7%, -24.6% drawdown, -16.8% from 52w high signal fragile positioning"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; +2.6% August, -1.4% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Modest prior strength +2.98% but weakening labor data hurts domestic cyclicals",
"Payrolls -23k with downward benchmark revisions"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -14.6% shows sustained relative weakness, not a shock",
"10y yield rising to 4.75% pressures rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent $90.49 vs EIA Q3 forecast ~$85 implies mean-reversion risk",
"Vol 51.9% and -26.7% drawdown; prior active +38.7% extended"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -11.6% and recent -6.8%: persistent underperformance, no briefing catalyst",
"Quality score only 0.504"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +22.7% but prior -18.5%; -37% from 52w high",
"Vol 41.5%, quality score 0.081; no in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +30.4% after prior -17.9%; -47.7% from 52w high",
"Highest vol on slate at 59.3%; quality score 0.060"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -18.8% and -35.7% drawdown at 52w low: persistent downtrend",
"Rising 10y yield at 4.75% hurts capital-intensive clean energy"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REAL_ESTATE": 30,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near highs (+2.6% August) but breadth deteriorating (RSP-SPY -1.5% 5s, positive share 39% over 5 sessions). Sticky inflation (PCE 3.7%) with hawkish Fed and 10y at 4.75% caps upside; quality pullbacks in strong-prior groups (regional banks, small value) offer the best reversal setups into the Sept FOMC.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top picks are the highest quality-pullback candidates: regional banks, small value, and real estate all had positive or improving prior relative trends with recent flow-driven dips, low drawdowns, and modest vol. Soft labor data ahead of the Sept 16 FOMC gives rate-sensitives a plausible tailwind, while extended tech/crypto/oil momentum lacks fresh in-window support.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near highs (+2.6% August) but breadth deteriorating (RSP-SPY -1.5% 5s, positive share 39% over 5 sessions). Sticky inflation (PCE 3.7%) with hawkish Fed and 10y at 4.75% caps upside; quality pullbacks in strong-prior groups (regional banks, small value) offer the best reversal setups into the Sept FOMC.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29173,
"latency_seconds": 40.18754949292634,
"output_tokens": 3516,
"total_tokens": 32689
}
} Anthropic
Claude Opus 5
anthropic-claude-opus-5
3 holdings Regional Banks (KRE)
Regional Banks (KRE) 35% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 30%
- Confidence
- 0.57
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Only two candidates clear the overreaction plus 55% bar: regional banks and small-cap value, both high quality-evidence pullbacks with intact prior relative trends, shallow drawdowns, low volume (flow-driven selling), and moderate volatility. Real estate and small caps are close but face rising long yields and a weakening labor market, so they are labeled no_edge and the third slot defaults to SPY. Momentum-extended crypto and rate-sensitive broken trends (utilities, solar, defense) are declined.
Index near highs with breadth deteriorating (RSP -1.5% vs SPY over 5 sessions, positive asset share 39%). Macro is stagflationary at the margin: PCE 3.7% y/y, payrolls -23k, GDP 1.5%, hawkish Fed with three members preferring a hike and 10y at 4.75%. That argues against duration-sensitive defensives and against aggressive high-beta reversal bets. Cross-sectional dispersion is high (crypto +22-30% active, metals/software strong, utilities/defense weak). Best risk-adjusted reversal candidates are high-quality domestic pullbacks with sound prior trends (regional banks, small value) rather than broken structural losers (solar, utilities). September carries dense event risk: Sept 4 payrolls, Sept 11 CPI, Sept 15-16 FOMC.
Portfolio
- Regional Banks (KRE): 35% - V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- US Small-Cap Value (IWN): 35% - V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- S&P 500 (SPY): 30% - Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate.
Key Risks
- Sept 15-16 FOMC plus Sept 11 CPI with PCE at 3.7% could push yields higher and hit banks, small value, and real estate
- Sept 4 payrolls after a -23k print and downward benchmark revision could trigger a small-cap and credit-quality de-rating
- Mega-cap AI leadership could continue, making narrow SPY hard to beat with broadening bets
- Brent at $90.49 versus EIA's ~$85 Q3 forecast leaves oil-linked exposures exposed to mean reversion
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sept 15-16 FOMC plus Sept 11 CPI with PCE at 3.7% could push yields higher and hit banks, small value, and real estate",
"Sept 4 payrolls after a -23k print and downward benchmark revision could trigger a small-cap and credit-quality de-rating",
"Mega-cap AI leadership could continue, making narrow SPY hard to beat with broadening bets",
"Brent at $90.49 versus EIA's ~$85 Q3 forecast leaves oil-linked exposures exposed to mean reversion"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.801 with prior active +5.59%",
"Recent active -5.76% with only -5.61% drawdown and modest 18.9% vol",
"Steep curve context: 10y 4.75% vs funds 3.63%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.760, prior active +3.57% now -2.68% recent active",
"Shallow -2.60% drawdown, low 13.4% vol",
"Volume z -0.88 indicates flow-driven, not fundamental, pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.81% with shallow -4.19% drawdown",
"Quality score 0.715 but rate-sensitive with 10y yield rising to 4.75%",
"Housing starts -12.4% and 9.6 months new-home supply"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.21 with -2.01% 5-session return and -2.22% active",
"Prior active +2.98%, quality 0.689",
"Payrolls -23k and negative benchmark revision weigh on domestic cyclicals"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +34.05% and recent active +8.57%, only -2.01% from 52w high",
"Software strength corroborated by Salesforce revenue +11% and cRPO +14%",
"Recent pullback rank 0.104 means no valuation cushion"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +17.54%, recent active +3.45%",
"NVIDIA revenue $96.2B up 106% supports AI capex",
"Beta 1.75 and 35% vol into FOMC and CPI"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +23.20% but -16.79% from 52w high and -24.62% drawdown",
"Vol 53.65%, beta 2.40",
"Broadcom results Sept 2 is a two-sided catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $90.49 vs EIA Q3 forecast near $85, implying downside to forecast",
"Prior active +38.73%, vol 51.9%, drawdown -26.7%",
"Negative SPY beta gives diversification but weak expected drift"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.79% and prior active -11.58% indicates persistent weakness",
"-9.82% from 52w high with 25.5% vol",
"No briefing catalyst on defense budgets in the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.12% on top of prior active -14.59%",
"10y yield rose to 4.75% and 30y at 5.22%, adverse for rate-sensitive defensives",
"-10.34% from 52w high, quality score 0.500"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +22.66% after prior active -18.48%",
"Still -37.34% from 52w high, vol 41.5%",
"Volume z +0.39 shows renewed flows but quality score 0.081"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +30.37%, lowest pullback rank 0.000",
"Vol 59.3% and beta 2.51 into dense macro event calendar",
"-47.69% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -22,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; S&P 500 closed 7,686.14, +2.6% in August",
"Only -1.39% from 52w high with 13.7% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-35.66% from 52w high equals full-period drawdown, vol 43.2%",
"Prior active -18.80% plus recent active -7.23%",
"Quality score 0.334 with worst shallow-drawdown rank 0.000"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Index near highs with breadth deteriorating (RSP -1.5% vs SPY over 5 sessions, positive asset share 39%). Macro is stagflationary at the margin: PCE 3.7% y/y, payrolls -23k, GDP 1.5%, hawkish Fed with three members preferring a hike and 10y at 4.75%. That argues against duration-sensitive defensives and against aggressive high-beta reversal bets. Cross-sectional dispersion is high (crypto +22-30% active, metals/software strong, utilities/defense weak). Best risk-adjusted reversal candidates are high-quality domestic pullbacks with sound prior trends (regional banks, small value) rather than broken structural losers (solar, utilities). September carries dense event risk: Sept 4 payrolls, Sept 11 CPI, Sept 15-16 FOMC.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only two candidates clear the overreaction plus 55% bar: regional banks and small-cap value, both high quality-evidence pullbacks with intact prior relative trends, shallow drawdowns, low volume (flow-driven selling), and moderate volatility. Real estate and small caps are close but face rising long yields and a weakening labor market, so they are labeled no_edge and the third slot defaults to SPY. Momentum-extended crypto and rate-sensitive broken trends (utilities, solar, defense) are declined.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Index near highs with breadth deteriorating (RSP -1.5% vs SPY over 5 sessions, positive asset share 39%). Macro is stagflationary at the margin: PCE 3.7% y/y, payrolls -23k, GDP 1.5%, hawkish Fed with three members preferring a hike and 10y at 4.75%. That argues against duration-sensitive defensives and against aggressive high-beta reversal bets. Cross-sectional dispersion is high (crypto +22-30% active, metals/software strong, utilities/defense weak). Best risk-adjusted reversal candidates are high-quality domestic pullbacks with sound prior trends (regional banks, small value) rather than broken structural losers (solar, utilities). September carries dense event risk: Sept 4 payrolls, Sept 11 CPI, Sept 15-16 FOMC.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29173,
"latency_seconds": 45.14973987301346,
"output_tokens": 3887,
"total_tokens": 33060
}
} Google
Gemini 3.1 Pro
google-gemini-3-1-pro
3 holdings Utilities Sector (XLU)
Utilities Sector (XLU) 35% Regional Banks (KRE) 35% Real Estate Sector (XLRE) 30%
- Confidence
- 0.58
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
The portfolio targets high-quality, rate-sensitive sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks, positioning for a potential reversal as the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September.
The market is digesting mixed economic signals with steady inflation and a potential Fed rate cut in September. Tech earnings remain strong, but broader market breadth is weak.
Portfolio
- Utilities Sector (XLU): 35% - V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- Regional Banks (KRE): 35% - V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- Real Estate Sector (XLRE): 30% - V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY.
Key Risks
- The Fed may not cut rates as expected, negatively impacting rate-sensitive sectors.
- Broader market weakness could drag down all sectors, regardless of quality or recent pullbacks.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The Fed may not cut rates as expected, negatively impacting rate-sensitive sectors.",
"Broader market weakness could drag down all sectors, regardless of quality or recent pullbacks."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Utilities Sector recent return was -1.26% with a -8.12% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.500 with a 1.000 recent pullback rank."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Regional Banks recent return was -1.74% with a -5.76% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.801 with a 0.955 recent pullback rank."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Real Estate Sector recent return was -2.69% with a -4.81% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.715 with a 0.940 recent pullback rank."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity recent return was 5.59% with an 8.57% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.530."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Technology Sector recent return was 1.74% with a 3.45% recent active return.",
"NVIDIA reported fiscal-2027 second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Crude Oil recent return was 1.13% with a 0.83% recent active return.",
"Brent crude settled at $90.49 per barrel on August 31, up 2.7% for the session."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Semiconductors recent return was -0.68% with a 0.61% recent active return.",
"NVIDIA reported strong earnings."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"US Small-Cap Value recent return was -1.34% with a -2.68% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.760."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"US Small-Cap Stocks recent return was -2.01% with a -2.22% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.689."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Aerospace and Defense recent return was -3.79% with a -6.79% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.504."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Solar Energy recent return was -3.55% with a -7.23% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.334."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Ethereum ETF recent return was 0.32% with a 30.37% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.060."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Bitcoin ETF recent return was 0.07% with a 22.66% recent active return.",
"Quality score is 0.081."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 recent return was 0.47%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REAL_ESTATE": 30,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals with steady inflation and a potential Fed rate cut in September. Tech earnings remain strong, but broader market breadth is weak.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality, rate-sensitive sectors that have experienced recent pullbacks, positioning for a potential reversal as the market anticipates a Fed rate cut in September.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is digesting mixed economic signals with steady inflation and a potential Fed rate cut in September. Tech earnings remain strong, but broader market breadth is weak.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 20109,
"latency_seconds": 24.802371761063114,
"output_tokens": 3141,
"total_tokens": 23250
}
} OpenAI
GPT-5.6 Sol
openai-gpt-5-6-sol
3 holdings Regional Banks (KRE)
Regional Banks (KRE) 35% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 35% Semiconductors (SMH) 30%
- Confidence
- 0.57
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Regional banks and small value combine positive prior relative trends with high-quality pullbacks and manageable drawdowns. Semiconductors add a catalyst-backed reversal opportunity, though its much higher volatility warrants wider uncertainty.
Wide cross-asset return gaps, weakening short-term breadth, high inflation, and a September FOMC create a mixed regime. Selective reversals in high-quality pullbacks appear more attractive than chasing extreme crypto or sector momentum.
Portfolio
- Regional Banks (KRE): 35% - V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- US Small-Cap Value (IWN): 35% - V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY.
Key Risks
- Hot CPI or PPI and a hawkish September FOMC could extend pressure on rate-sensitive and smaller companies
- Further labor-market or consumption weakness could worsen regional-bank credit concerns and small-cap earnings expectations
- Broadcom results or semiconductor guidance could disappoint after entry
- Narrow market leadership could persist, preventing the selected pullbacks from recovering before the one-month exit
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot CPI or PPI and a hawkish September FOMC could extend pressure on rate-sensitive and smaller companies",
"Further labor-market or consumption weakness could worsen regional-bank credit concerns and small-cap earnings expectations",
"Broadcom results or semiconductor guidance could disappoint after entry",
"Narrow market leadership could persist, preventing the selected pullbacks from recovering before the one-month exit"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score at 0.801",
"Prior active return was 5.59% before the recent 5.76-point active pullback",
"Recent drawdown was limited to 5.61%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score was 0.760 with strong prior trend and pullback ranks",
"Prior active return was 3.57% versus a recent active pullback of 2.68 points",
"Volatility and drawdown were lower than broad small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 23.20% despite a 0.68% five-session decline",
"NVIDIA reported 106% revenue growth and 117% data-center growth",
"Broadcom results are scheduled immediately after entry"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 17.54% and recent active return was 3.45%",
"NVIDIA reported strong revenue and data-center growth",
"Very low volume z-score and 35.12% volatility raise reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.6,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 2.98% before a 2.22-point active pullback",
"Quality score was 0.689",
"Weak payrolls and tighter financing conditions limit conviction"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior and recent active returns were 34.05% and 8.57%",
"Cybersecurity had the strongest prior active rank in the quality table",
"Recent strength leaves substantial one-month reversal risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark",
"SPY rose 2.68% over 21 sessions but only 0.47% over five sessions",
"Equal-weight performance lagged SPY over both measured windows"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss was 6.79 points",
"The 9.82% drawdown was moderate relative to higher-risk thematic assets",
"Prior active return was already negative at 11.58%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score was strong at 0.715 after a 4.81-point active pullback",
"The 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.75%",
"Housing starts fell 12.4% and new-home sales were estimated down 10.5%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active loss was 8.12 points but prior active return was also negative 14.59%",
"The 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were 4.73% and 5.22%",
"Low SPY beta provides defense but not a clear relative-return catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 22.66% without briefing support for an in-window catalyst",
"Prior active return was negative 18.48%",
"Quality score was only 0.081 and volatility was 41.46%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled at $90.49 and petroleum stocks declined week over week",
"Prior active return was 38.73%",
"EIA projected third-quarter Brent near $85, below the latest settlement"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 17,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return reached 30.37% without a supplied fundamental catalyst",
"Prior active return was negative 17.87%",
"Quality score was 0.060 with 59.33% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -21,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 24.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior and recent active returns were negative 18.80% and 7.23%",
"The 35.66% drawdown was the deepest in the slate",
"High Treasury yields remain adverse for rate-sensitive project economics"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 30,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Wide cross-asset return gaps, weakening short-term breadth, high inflation, and a September FOMC create a mixed regime. Selective reversals in high-quality pullbacks appear more attractive than chasing extreme crypto or sector momentum.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Regional banks and small value combine positive prior relative trends with high-quality pullbacks and manageable drawdowns. Semiconductors add a catalyst-backed reversal opportunity, though its much higher volatility warrants wider uncertainty.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Wide cross-asset return gaps, weakening short-term breadth, high inflation, and a September FOMC create a mixed regime. Selective reversals in high-quality pullbacks appear more attractive than chasing extreme crypto or sector momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16727,
"latency_seconds": 59.226138712023385,
"output_tokens": 4657,
"reasoning_tokens": 2477,
"total_tokens": 21384
}
} xAI
Grok 4.3
xai-grok-4-3
2 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)
Crude Oil (USO) 35% S&P 500 (SPY) 65%
- Confidence
- 0.55
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Ranked candidates with recent relative strength and reversal potential prioritized for one-month window; three eligible overreaction cases identified above 55% beat probability.
Mixed sector signals with recent tech and cyber strength offset by broad equity weakness and policy uncertainty ahead of FOMC.
Portfolio
- Crude Oil (USO): 35% - V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- S&P 500 (SPY): 65% - Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate.
Key Risks
- FOMC policy decision volatility
- Weak July payroll revisions
- Energy price swings from EIA forecasts
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.55,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC policy decision volatility",
"Weak July payroll revisions",
"Energy price swings from EIA forecasts"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"5.59% recent return",
"quality score 0.530"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 68,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.74% recent return",
"prior active 17.54%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.13% recent return",
"Brent at $90.49"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.801",
"-1.74% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
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"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.760",
"-1.34% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
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"mechanism": "reversal",
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],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.715",
"-2.69% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.47% recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.68% recent return",
"high vol 53.65%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.01% recent return",
"volume z -1.21"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.07% recent return",
"quality score 0.081"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.32% recent return",
"quality score 0.060"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.26% recent return",
"quality score 0.500"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.79% recent return",
"quality score 0.504"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.55% recent return",
"quality score 0.334"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -5.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"OIL": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed sector signals with recent tech and cyber strength offset by broad equity weakness and policy uncertainty ahead of FOMC.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Ranked candidates with recent relative strength and reversal potential prioritized for one-month window; three eligible overreaction cases identified above 55% beat probability.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed sector signals with recent tech and cyber strength offset by broad equity weakness and policy uncertainty ahead of FOMC.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16914,
"latency_seconds": 12.533197556971572,
"output_tokens": 1912,
"reasoning_tokens": 736,
"total_tokens": 19562
}
} xAI
Grok 4.5
xai-grok-4-5
3 holdings Regional Banks (KRE)
Regional Banks (KRE) 35% US Small-Cap Value (IWN) 35% Real Estate Sector (XLRE) 30%
- Confidence
- 0.56
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
Highest-conviction edges are quality pullback overreactions in regional banks, small-value and real estate with p_beat >=55; sticky inflation and Sept FOMC limit duration/rate-sensitive upside while momentum names lack enough independent one-month catalysts to prefer over SPY, so diagnostic leans benchmark-heavy under the deterministic rule.
Sticky PCE/CPI near 3.4-3.7%, soft July payrolls and 1.5% Q2 GDP, 10y at 4.75% and Sept FOMC ahead create mixed one-month setup; recent breadth weak while energy/tech pockets held up, favoring selective quality pullbacks over pure momentum or deep rate-sensitive losers.
Portfolio
- Regional Banks (KRE): 35% - V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- US Small-Cap Value (IWN): 35% - V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY.
- Real Estate Sector (XLRE): 30% - V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY.
Key Risks
- September 16 FOMC and sticky 3.7% PCE could reprice rate-sensitive and bank names lower
- August employment and CPI prints may extend soft-growth risk-off into small caps
- Oil/geopolitical spike or crypto volatility could dominate residual high-beta tails
- Volume dislocation in tech may reverse if mega-cap leadership fades post-NVIDIA
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 16 FOMC and sticky 3.7% PCE could reprice rate-sensitive and bank names lower",
"August employment and CPI prints may extend soft-growth risk-off into small caps",
"Oil/geopolitical spike or crypto volatility could dominate residual high-beta tails",
"Volume dislocation in tech may reverse if mega-cap leadership fades post-NVIDIA"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.801 with high prior-active and pullback ranks",
"recent active -5.76% after prior +5.59% with modest 18.87% vol and -5.61% drawdown",
"volume z -0.83 and distance to 52w high only -5.61%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.760 with strong prior-active and shallow-drawdown ranks",
"recent active -2.68% vs prior +3.57%, vol 13.42% and max DD only -2.60%",
"volume z -0.88 near SPY beta ~0.94"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.715 driven by high recent-pullback rank 0.940",
"recent active -4.81% after prior -5.20%, low beta 0.26 and vol 15.61%",
"52w-high distance -4.13% with volume z -0.52"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +34.05% and recent active +8.57% with quality 0.530",
"horizon vol 33.46% but only -2.01% from 52w high",
"NVIDIA/data-center strength in briefing supports cyber demand theme"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +17.54% and recent +3.45% with volume z -1.30 dislocation",
"NVIDIA Q2 revenue +106% and data-center +117% in briefing",
"quality 0.548 but high beta 1.75 and vol 35%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +38.73% and Brent settled $90.49 up 2.7% on Aug 31",
"EIA stocks edged lower week ended Aug 21; energy sole S&P gainer that day",
"high 51.86% vol and -26.69% drawdown keep edge limited"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -8.12% and prior -14.59% with pullback rank 1.000",
"low SPY corr 0.12 beta 0.14 but 10y yield 4.75% and sticky inflation headwind",
"quality score only 0.500 and -10.34% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active +23.20% quality 0.560 and NVIDIA strength",
"recent active only +0.61% with 53.65% vol and -24.62% DD",
"-16.79% from 52w high and beta 2.40 elevate risk into FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z -1.21 dislocation and quality 0.689",
"recent active -2.22% after prior +2.98%, DD -3.95%",
"soft July payrolls and retail sales weigh on domestic small-cap beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active -6.79% prior -11.58% with pullback rank 0.970",
"quality 0.504 vol 25.5% and -9.82% from high",
"no specific near-term budget catalyst in briefing before exit"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with 0.47% 5s return and -1.39% from 52w high",
"August +2.6% but Aug 31 broad sector weakness except energy",
"vol 13.71% and upcoming jobs/FOMC dominate one-month path"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +22.66% after prior -18.48% but quality only 0.081",
"vol 41.46% DD -17.78% and -37.34% from 52w high",
"no crypto-specific catalyst in cutoff briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent active +30.37% after prior -17.87% quality 0.060",
"vol 59.33% and -47.69% from 52w high",
"high beta 2.51 without in-window fundamental support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active -18.80% recent -7.23% quality 0.334 and max DD -35.66%",
"vol 43.23% beta 1.89 and still at 52w low distance -35.66%",
"no offsetting policy or earnings catalyst supplied before Oct 2"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REAL_ESTATE": 30,
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Sticky PCE/CPI near 3.4-3.7%, soft July payrolls and 1.5% Q2 GDP, 10y at 4.75% and Sept FOMC ahead create mixed one-month setup; recent breadth weak while energy/tech pockets held up, favoring selective quality pullbacks over pure momentum or deep rate-sensitive losers.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction edges are quality pullback overreactions in regional banks, small-value and real estate with p_beat >=55; sticky inflation and Sept FOMC limit duration/rate-sensitive upside while momentum names lack enough independent one-month catalysts to prefer over SPY, so diagnostic leans benchmark-heavy under the deterministic rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Sticky PCE/CPI near 3.4-3.7%, soft July payrolls and 1.5% Q2 GDP, 10y at 4.75% and Sept FOMC ahead create mixed one-month setup; recent breadth weak while energy/tech pockets held up, favoring selective quality pullbacks over pure momentum or deep rate-sensitive losers.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17968,
"latency_seconds": 44.751611132058315,
"output_tokens": 2646,
"reasoning_tokens": 352,
"total_tokens": 20966
}
} xAI
Grok 4.6
xai-grok-4-6
Portfolio S&P 500 (SPY)
S&P 500 (SPY) 100%
- Confidence
- 0.50
- Run Type
- official
Rationale
One-month scoring is dominated by FOMC, CPI, and labor prints with sticky inflation and a 4.75% 10-year. SPY already leads equal-weight and sits near highs, so high-beta continuation names have only modest, not majority, odds of beating it. Quality pullbacks in banks, REITs, and small value look like overreactions but stay below a 55% beat-SPY bar because rates remain restrictive.
SPY is near a 52-week high after an August gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth was mixed on the latest session, and the one-month window includes FOMC plus CPI/payrolls with sticky PCE and a 4.75% 10-year. Mega-cap tech still has relative strength; rate-sensitive losers lack a clear in-window easing catalyst.
Portfolio
- S&P 500 (SPY): 100% - Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate.
Key Risks
- September 15–16 FOMC and August CPI/payrolls can reprice duration and growth simultaneously.
- Sticky 3.7% PCE and a 4.75% 10-year can extend underperformance of utilities, REITs, and regional banks.
- High-vol semiconductors, solar, oil, and crypto can gap versus SPY on a single risk-off session.
- Equal-weight lag versus SPY can persist if mega-cap tech leadership continues.
Validated JSON
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 15–16 FOMC and August CPI/payrolls can reprice duration and growth simultaneously.",
"Sticky 3.7% PCE and a 4.75% 10-year can extend underperformance of utilities, REITs, and regional banks.",
"High-vol semiconductors, solar, oil, and crypto can gap versus SPY on a single risk-off session.",
"Equal-weight lag versus SPY can persist if mega-cap tech leadership continues."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return 0.47% and 21-session 2.68% with distance to 52-week high only -1.39%.",
"S&P 500 closed 7686.14 on Aug 31, down 0.3% that day but up 2.6% in August.",
"Horizon vol 13.71% and max drawdown -4.49% are lower than most slate growth names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLK 21-session active return +3.45% and prior active +17.54% with NVIDIA data-center revenue $89.0B up 117% y/y.",
"Volume z -1.30 indicates a volume dislocation versus the 20/120 baseline.",
"Beta 1.75 and 35% horizon vol raise FOMC/CPI event risk versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CIBR 21-session active +8.57% and prior active +34.05% with only -2.01% from 52-week high.",
"Quality evidence score 0.530 with very high prior-active rank 0.985.",
"Horizon vol 33.46% and SPY beta 1.15 leave a wide one-month range."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMH prior active +23.20% but 21-session active only +0.61% and -16.79% from 52-week high.",
"Horizon vol 53.65% and max drawdown -24.62% with beta 2.40.",
"NVIDIA fiscal-2027 Q2 revenue $96.2B up 106% is a sector support, not a one-month guarantee."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"KRE quality evidence score 0.801 is the highest on the slate with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"21-session active -5.76% after prior active +5.59%; max drawdown only -5.61%.",
"10-year yield 4.75% and September FOMC keep net-interest-margin and curve risk elevated."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWN quality score 0.760 with prior active +3.57% and 21-session active -2.68%.",
"Horizon vol 13.42% and drawdown -2.60% are close to SPY.",
"Russell 2000 closed down 0.5% on Aug 31; RSP minus SPY 5-session -1.50% shows recent small/mid lag."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLRE quality score 0.715 with recent pullback rank 0.940 and 21-session active -4.81%.",
"July housing starts 1.239 million, down 12.4% from June; 10-year at 4.75%.",
"Low SPY beta 0.26 can lag if large-cap growth continues to lead."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $90.49 on Aug 31, up 2.7% that session; energy was the S&P sector that gained.",
"USO prior active +38.73% but 21-session active only +0.83%; EIA Aug forecast saw Q3 Brent about $85.",
"Horizon vol 51.86% and negative SPY correlation -0.34 create a wide excess range."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IWM 5-session -2.01% and volume z -1.21 versus SPY volume z -1.07.",
"Quality score 0.689 with prior active +2.98% and shallow drawdown -3.95%.",
"July payrolls -23,000 and FOMC in-window raise domestic-cyclical risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLU 21-session active -8.12% and prior active -14.59% with recent pullback rank 1.000.",
"SPY corr 0.12 and beta 0.14; 10-year yield rose to 4.75%.",
"Chair Warsh cited 3.7% 12-month PCE and 4.1% six-month PCE, limiting near-term rate-cut odds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ITA 5-session -3.79% and 21-session active -6.79% after prior active -11.58%.",
"Quality score 0.504; recent pullback rank 0.970.",
"Horizon vol 25.50% and -9.82% from 52-week high with no in-window contract catalyst in the briefing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"IBIT 21-session active +22.66% after prior active -18.48%; still -37.34% from 52-week high.",
"Quality evidence score 0.081 with very low prior and pullback ranks.",
"Horizon vol 41.46% and beta 1.66 versus a dense macro calendar."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ETHA 21-session active +30.37% after prior active -17.87%; -47.69% from 52-week high.",
"Quality score 0.060 is the lowest on the slate.",
"Horizon vol 59.33% and beta 2.51 dominate one-month excess-return uncertainty."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"TAN prior active -18.80%, 21-session active -7.23%, max drawdown and 52-week distance both -35.66%.",
"Quality score 0.334 with low-vol rank 0.075 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.000.",
"Horizon vol 43.23% and beta 1.89 without a supplied in-window policy catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"REGIONAL_BANKS",
"REAL_ESTATE",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near a 52-week high after an August gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth was mixed on the latest session, and the one-month window includes FOMC plus CPI/payrolls with sticky PCE and a 4.75% 10-year. Mega-cap tech still has relative strength; rate-sensitive losers lack a clear in-window easing catalyst.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"TECHNOLOGY",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-month scoring is dominated by FOMC, CPI, and labor prints with sticky inflation and a 4.75% 10-year. SPY already leads equal-weight and sits near highs, so high-beta continuation names have only modest, not majority, odds of beating it. Quality pullbacks in banks, REITs, and small value look like overreactions but stay below a 55% beat-SPY bar because rates remain restrictive.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a 52-week high after an August gain while equal-weight lagged, breadth was mixed on the latest session, and the one-month window includes FOMC plus CPI/payrolls with sticky PCE and a 4.75% 10-year. Mega-cap tech still has relative strength; rate-sensitive losers lack a clear in-window easing catalyst.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-01-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18110,
"latency_seconds": 49.33575803297572,
"output_tokens": 3000,
"reasoning_tokens": 530,
"total_tokens": 21640
}
} Public model run
Model Portfolios
This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Regional Banks (KRE)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Regional Banks (KRE)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Regional Banks (KRE)35%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Regional Banks (KRE)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Semiconductors (SMH)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Regional Banks (KRE)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Pricing Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
Starting Prices
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Audit Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
Published Hashes
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 25ea4f21542b...0c82dcae |
| manifest.yaml | 526c7948a3e9...399a2889 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | f8728fe05eda...94de03ef |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | a39653f901fb...27df17e7 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | be6e11b00493...fa858bce |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | f7823f148e52...cb978421 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 684b3e60a41b...83c2394a |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 0fe822de3166...cadd87f7 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |