Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 1.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 67.8 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward real assets and inflation, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-18 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260819-monthly
35,115 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-19
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-19T05:46:01Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-19T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-19
- Exit date: 2026-09-18
- Entry rule: Use the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Friday, September 18, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Portfolio V3 Briefing — 2026-08-19
Research cutoff: 2026-08-19 05:46 UTC (01:46 EDT). The scoring windows begin at the August 19 U.S. market close. The weekly window ends at the August 26 close; the monthly window ends at the September 18 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. inflation and income
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months.
- BLS reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July and rose 4.7% over 12 months. July PPI values are preliminary.
- BLS reported that U.S. import prices fell 0.4% in July and export prices fell 1.3%. These price indexes exclude duties and can be revised.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index fell 0.1% in June and was 3.7% above June 2025. Personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2%, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3%, and the personal saving rate was 2.7%. These estimates are subject to revision.
## U.S. labor, growth, and business activity
- BLS reported that total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate was 4.1% and the labor-force participation rate was 61.4%. May and June payroll changes were revised down by a combined 103,000. Payroll estimates remain subject to monthly and annual benchmark revision.
- BEA's advance estimate placed second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate, after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate. The second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- ISM's July Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, with production at 58.5, new orders at 56.7, employment at 52.8, and prices at 71.1.
- ISM's July Services PMI was 54.1, with business activity at 59.1, new orders at 57.2, employment at 47.4, and prices at 70.3.
- The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2% in July. Total industrial production was 1.1% above its July 2025 level. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. July values are preliminary.
## Consumer and housing data
- Census reported July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline fell 0.2%. The headline monthly change has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval.
- Census reported second-quarter retail e-commerce sales of $340.2 billion, up 3.8% from the first quarter and 12.2% from a year earlier. E-commerce represented 17.1% of total retail sales. The quarter-over-quarter e-commerce estimate has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval; the year-over-year estimate has a ±0.9 percentage-point interval.
- Census and HUD reported July housing starts at a 1.239 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from revised June and 13.5% from July 2025. The monthly change has a ±9.5 percentage-point confidence interval. Building permits were 1.443 million, up 5.0% from revised June and 3.1% from a year earlier. Housing completions were 1.212 million.
- The National Association of Realtors reported July existing-home sales at a 4.06 million annual rate, down 1.7% from June and up 0.7% from a year earlier. The median price was $434,100, up 2.0% over 12 months, and inventory was 1.54 million units.
- NAR reported that July pending home sales fell 2.3% from June and 2.2% from July 2025. Pending contracts do not always become completed sales.
- Home Depot reported fiscal-second-quarter sales of $47.86 billion and U.S. comparable-sales growth of 1.3%. It maintained fiscal-2026 total-sales growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.5%; that guidance is a company forecast.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
- The July FOMC statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace.
- U.S. Treasury's August 18 indicative par-yield curve was 3.86% at 3 months, 3.99% at 1 year, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.37% at 5 years, 4.71% at 10 years, and 5.28% at 30 years. These are Treasury-derived indicative par yields, not transaction prices.
## Completed August 18 U.S. market session
- Vendor daily histories recorded an August 18 S&P 500 close of 7,691.76, down 0.69%; a Nasdaq-100 close of 29,490.96, down 1.68%; a Russell 2000 close of 3,017.89, down 1.30%; and a Dow Jones Industrial Average close of 53,343.40, down 0.22%.
- Four of eleven Select Sector SPDR index proxies had positive August 18 returns and seven had negative returns. This is a sector-proxy count, not a security-level advance/decline statistic.
- The VIX closed at 15.84 on August 18, up 4.28% on the day. Vendor histories recorded front-month WTI crude at 84.94, front-month gold at 4,366.00, and the U.S. Dollar Index future at 99.65. Futures trade outside regular equity hours and continuous-history rolls can affect values.
## Non-U.S. datapoints
- Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate placed second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% from the first quarter in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU. The respective year-over-year rates were 1.0% and 1.2%. The estimates are revisable.
- Japan's Cabinet Office preliminary estimate placed April–June real GDP growth at 0.3% from the prior quarter and 1.1% at an annual rate. A second preliminary estimate is scheduled for September 8.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a July manufacturing PMI of 49.2, down from 50.3 in June. The production subindex was 49.9 and new orders were 48.5.
## Scheduled events through the weekly close
All times are Eastern. Scheduled items are not known outcomes.
- August 19: Target's fiscal-second-quarter call at 8:00 a.m.; Lowe's fiscal-second-quarter call at 9:00 a.m.; July FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m.
- August 20: Walmart fiscal-second-quarter results at 8:00 a.m.; Census advance second-quarter services report at 10:00 a.m.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
- August 25: July new-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- August 26 before the weekly exit close: July advance durable-goods orders at 8:30 a.m.; second-quarter GDP second estimate, corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.
- NVIDIA scheduled its fiscal-second-quarter results for approximately 4:20 p.m. on August 26 and its call for 5:00 p.m., after the regular equity close.
## Additional scheduled events through the September 18 monthly close
- August 27: July advance economic indicators at 8:30 a.m.
- August 28: first-quarter county employment and wages and the preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark revision at 10:00 a.m.
- September 1: August Manufacturing PMI, July JOLTS, and July construction spending at 10:00 a.m.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.
- September 3: July international trade at 8:30 a.m. and August Services PMI at 10:00 a.m.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m.
- September 7: U.S. Labor Day market holiday.
- September 8: Japan's second preliminary estimate of April–June GDP.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. and August existing-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting; the September 16 statement and Summary of Economic Projections are scheduled for 2:00 p.m., followed by a press conference.
- September 16: August retail sales and import/export prices at 8:30 a.m.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m.; August pending home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 18: August industrial production at 9:15 a.m.; August state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
All values above are fixed to the stated research cutoff. Preliminary and survey-based values retain the statuses and uncertainty stated by their publishers. The briefing does not supply an expected-return conclusion; the complete mechanical artifacts that follow provide descriptive historical context only and are not forecasts.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-19-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-19'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-19T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-19T05:55:47.381294+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the Wednesday, August 19, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Friday, September 18, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-19'
exit_date: '2026-09-18'
created_at: '2026-08-19T05:55:47.381294+00:00'
notes: Fresh August 19, 2026 monthly Portfolio V3.0 production round. Research cutoff 2026-08-19T05:46:01Z. Entry and exit use official close prices. Claude Opus 4.8 retirement is forward-only and this manifest freezes the seven-model successor roster.# CapitalBench Portfolio V3 Briefing — 2026-08-19
Research cutoff: 2026-08-19 05:46 UTC (01:46 EDT). The scoring windows begin at the August 19 U.S. market close. The weekly window ends at the August 26 close; the monthly window ends at the September 18 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. inflation and income
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July and 3.4% over 12 months. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months.
- BLS reported that the Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged in July and rose 4.7% over 12 months. July PPI values are preliminary.
- BLS reported that U.S. import prices fell 0.4% in July and export prices fell 1.3%. These price indexes exclude duties and can be revised.
- The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE price index fell 0.1% in June and was 3.7% above June 2025. Personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2%, personal consumption expenditures rose 0.3%, and the personal saving rate was 2.7%. These estimates are subject to revision.
## U.S. labor, growth, and business activity
- BLS reported that total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 23,000 in July. The unemployment rate was 4.1% and the labor-force participation rate was 61.4%. May and June payroll changes were revised down by a combined 103,000. Payroll estimates remain subject to monthly and annual benchmark revision.
- BEA's advance estimate placed second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate, after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate. The second estimate is scheduled for August 26.
- ISM's July Manufacturing PMI was 55.6, with production at 58.5, new orders at 56.7, employment at 52.8, and prices at 71.1.
- ISM's July Services PMI was 54.1, with business activity at 59.1, new orders at 57.2, employment at 47.4, and prices at 70.3.
- The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production and manufacturing production each rose 0.2% in July. Total industrial production was 1.1% above its July 2025 level. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average. July values are preliminary.
## Consumer and housing data
- Census reported July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% from June and up 5.0% from July 2025. Sales excluding motor vehicles fell 0.3%; sales excluding motor vehicles and gasoline fell 0.2%. The headline monthly change has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval.
- Census reported second-quarter retail e-commerce sales of $340.2 billion, up 3.8% from the first quarter and 12.2% from a year earlier. E-commerce represented 17.1% of total retail sales. The quarter-over-quarter e-commerce estimate has a ±0.4 percentage-point 90% confidence interval; the year-over-year estimate has a ±0.9 percentage-point interval.
- Census and HUD reported July housing starts at a 1.239 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% from revised June and 13.5% from July 2025. The monthly change has a ±9.5 percentage-point confidence interval. Building permits were 1.443 million, up 5.0% from revised June and 3.1% from a year earlier. Housing completions were 1.212 million.
- The National Association of Realtors reported July existing-home sales at a 4.06 million annual rate, down 1.7% from June and up 0.7% from a year earlier. The median price was $434,100, up 2.0% over 12 months, and inventory was 1.54 million units.
- NAR reported that July pending home sales fell 2.3% from June and 2.2% from July 2025. Pending contracts do not always become completed sales.
- Home Depot reported fiscal-second-quarter sales of $47.86 billion and U.S. comparable-sales growth of 1.3%. It maintained fiscal-2026 total-sales growth guidance of 2.5% to 4.5%; that guidance is a company forecast.
## Monetary policy and rates
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. Three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
- The July FOMC statement said inflation remained elevated relative to the Committee's 2% goal and that economic activity was expanding at a solid pace.
- U.S. Treasury's August 18 indicative par-yield curve was 3.86% at 3 months, 3.99% at 1 year, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.37% at 5 years, 4.71% at 10 years, and 5.28% at 30 years. These are Treasury-derived indicative par yields, not transaction prices.
## Completed August 18 U.S. market session
- Vendor daily histories recorded an August 18 S&P 500 close of 7,691.76, down 0.69%; a Nasdaq-100 close of 29,490.96, down 1.68%; a Russell 2000 close of 3,017.89, down 1.30%; and a Dow Jones Industrial Average close of 53,343.40, down 0.22%.
- Four of eleven Select Sector SPDR index proxies had positive August 18 returns and seven had negative returns. This is a sector-proxy count, not a security-level advance/decline statistic.
- The VIX closed at 15.84 on August 18, up 4.28% on the day. Vendor histories recorded front-month WTI crude at 84.94, front-month gold at 4,366.00, and the U.S. Dollar Index future at 99.65. Futures trade outside regular equity hours and continuous-history rolls can affect values.
## Non-U.S. datapoints
- Eurostat's preliminary flash estimate placed second-quarter GDP growth at 0.4% from the first quarter in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU. The respective year-over-year rates were 1.0% and 1.2%. The estimates are revisable.
- Japan's Cabinet Office preliminary estimate placed April–June real GDP growth at 0.3% from the prior quarter and 1.1% at an annual rate. A second preliminary estimate is scheduled for September 8.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported a July manufacturing PMI of 49.2, down from 50.3 in June. The production subindex was 49.9 and new orders were 48.5.
## Scheduled events through the weekly close
All times are Eastern. Scheduled items are not known outcomes.
- August 19: Target's fiscal-second-quarter call at 8:00 a.m.; Lowe's fiscal-second-quarter call at 9:00 a.m.; July FOMC minutes at 2:00 p.m.
- August 20: Walmart fiscal-second-quarter results at 8:00 a.m.; Census advance second-quarter services report at 10:00 a.m.
- August 21: July state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
- August 25: July new-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- August 26 before the weekly exit close: July advance durable-goods orders at 8:30 a.m.; second-quarter GDP second estimate, corporate profits, and July personal income and outlays at 8:30 a.m.
- NVIDIA scheduled its fiscal-second-quarter results for approximately 4:20 p.m. on August 26 and its call for 5:00 p.m., after the regular equity close.
## Additional scheduled events through the September 18 monthly close
- August 27: July advance economic indicators at 8:30 a.m.
- August 28: first-quarter county employment and wages and the preliminary March 2026 payroll benchmark revision at 10:00 a.m.
- September 1: August Manufacturing PMI, July JOLTS, and July construction spending at 10:00 a.m.
- September 2: Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2:00 p.m.
- September 3: July international trade at 8:30 a.m. and August Services PMI at 10:00 a.m.
- September 4: August Employment Situation at 8:30 a.m.
- September 7: U.S. Labor Day market holiday.
- September 8: Japan's second preliminary estimate of April–June GDP.
- September 10: August PPI at 8:30 a.m. and August existing-home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 11: August CPI at 8:30 a.m.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting; the September 16 statement and Summary of Economic Projections are scheduled for 2:00 p.m., followed by a press conference.
- September 16: August retail sales and import/export prices at 8:30 a.m.
- September 17: August housing starts and permits at 8:30 a.m.; August pending home sales at 10:00 a.m.
- September 18: August industrial production at 9:15 a.m.; August state employment and unemployment at 10:00 a.m.
All values above are fixed to the stated research cutoff. Preliminary and survey-based values retain the statuses and uncertainty stated by their publishers. The briefing does not supply an expected-return conclusion; the complete mechanical artifacts that follow provide descriptive historical context only and are not forecasts.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "64450a1f3c7aea790b332c55307b7bf8c85ff875eeda33d9ce6144ccfc8a96e2",
"manifest.yaml": "20cfdffecfd9a827731831eeca7255a1b26df5f93c682d02add894ac2af4c620",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "fabf04c53a6601e17ba116146c7f1a101985338febc55428a720772aa8aebd88",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "a1c25667bdb419365e5893f4e59f546422bfae47765f84bc814566e69a56b184",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "dab775e4ba60fca6f8fb5dbd7aa6b06e22d6ab285f2a540ed941577a34e10112",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "e51012eed824f79b6c49e3cb1e88038e61c11e14e152c7179b14e96eaac3d256",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "d50b9c6e7ff420cc05737a1e4d61f0e950ebf7de4088f42fa299e3bd5f46a581",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "48eda25753463ca7fede57acaeac619977ac6de4bd7ec436d69f456f61c72d55",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "b0cf9b835591ce66e32f658ea0a409637a6f58535c6e08290b08283733e9174a",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-19-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Semis lead on a mild pullback within a strong prior uptrend and the NVIDIA earnings catalyst inside the window; Brazil offers a deep-value reversal after sequential underperformance with a softer dollar; utilities are a diversifying rate-sensitive reversal into the September FOMC. Together they mix growth catalyst, EM reversal, and defensive exposure.
SPY is near its high after a +3.4% month with soft labor data (payrolls -23k) and elevated inflation keeping the Fed on hold; the FOMC meeting Sep 15-16 and NVIDIA's Aug 26 report dominate the window. Recent laggards with intact fundamentals (semis after a mild pullback, deeply discounted Brazil, rate-sensitive utilities into a possibly dovish Fed) offer the best excess-return asymmetry.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA earnings disappointment could drive sharp semiconductor underperformance",
"FOMC holds hawkish on elevated inflation, hurting utilities and duration-sensitive assets",
"Brazil-specific fiscal or currency stress extends EWZ's downtrend",
"Weak labor data escalates into broad risk-off, hitting high-beta picks harder than SPY"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +27.9% with only -1.46% recent active pullback",
"NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results scheduled Aug 26, inside the window",
"Quality evidence score 0.613 despite high vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.43% after prior -14.35%, 18.5% below 52w high",
"Recent pullback rank 0.985, moderate 21.6% vol and -8.97% drawdown",
"Weak dollar (UUP 21s -0.88%) supportive for EM"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.46% after -11.06% prior; pullback rank 0.955",
"Sep 16 FOMC could ease rate pressure on rate-sensitive defensives",
"Positive +0.89% recent absolute return shows stabilization"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.2%, recent active still +2.74%",
"Only -4.66% off 52w high with 32.6% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score 0.711, only -0.76% from high",
"Low 11.6% vol, -2.4% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.34% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.710 but payrolls -23k weigh on small-cap cyclicals",
"Recent active -1.79%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.03% with pullback rank 0.940",
"Fed on hold with elevated inflation caps duration upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +56.5%, WTI 84.94, but 53.6% vol and -32.5% drawdown",
"Negative SPY beta -1.25 makes relative outcome coin-flip"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.84% but lowest quality score 0.037",
"41.5% vol, -26.5% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-45.6% from 52w high after prior -32.4% active; quality score 0.020",
"Gold +8.4% over 21s gives some precious-metals tailwind"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.17 dislocation but only 3.1% vol; limited upside vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"30y at 5.28%, inflation elevated, 3 FOMC members preferred a hike",
"Prior active -14.15%; rising-rate trend intact"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality score 0.785 but low-vol currency unlikely to beat equities",
"UUP 21s -0.88%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -15.1%; volume z 1.48 but no policy catalyst in window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-14.04% recent active on top of -13.67% prior; -32.5% from high",
"45.8% vol, -35.5% drawdown, quality 0.383 — persistent downtrend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BRAZIL": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"UTILITIES": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near its high after a +3.4% month with soft labor data (payrolls -23k) and elevated inflation keeping the Fed on hold; the FOMC meeting Sep 15-16 and NVIDIA's Aug 26 report dominate the window. Recent laggards with intact fundamentals (semis after a mild pullback, deeply discounted Brazil, rate-sensitive utilities into a possibly dovish Fed) offer the best excess-return asymmetry.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Semis lead on a mild pullback within a strong prior uptrend and the NVIDIA earnings catalyst inside the window; Brazil offers a deep-value reversal after sequential underperformance with a softer dollar; utilities are a diversifying rate-sensitive reversal into the September FOMC. Together they mix growth catalyst, EM reversal, and defensive exposure.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near its high after a +3.4% month with soft labor data (payrolls -23k) and elevated inflation keeping the Fed on hold; the FOMC meeting Sep 15-16 and NVIDIA's Aug 26 report dominate the window. Recent laggards with intact fundamentals (semis after a mild pullback, deeply discounted Brazil, rate-sensitive utilities into a possibly dovish Fed) offer the best excess-return asymmetry.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29410,
"latency_seconds": 47.143318424990866,
"output_tokens": 3869,
"total_tokens": 33279
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only three candidates combine a genuine recent relative pullback with independent support: LARGE_VALUE and SMALL_VALUE show positive prior relative trends, low volatility and shallow drawdowns with the highest equity quality scores, and UTILITIES shows the deepest recent relative pullback with low beta ahead of a dense macro calendar. High-volatility momentum names (SMH, OIL, XME, SLV) and duration/credit lack in-window support given 3.4% CPI, 4.7% PPI and hawkish FOMC dissents. Edges are modest, so SPY remains the appropriate default for unfilled exposure.
Late-cycle mix: sticky 3.4% CPI with 4.7% PPI, softening labor (-23k payrolls, downward revisions) and 1.5% Q2 GDP, with the FOMC on hold at 3.50-3.75% and three hawkish dissents. Long-end yields are high (30y 5.28%), which caps duration reversal. Equity breadth is mediocre (RSP lagging SPY by 1.2% over 21 sessions) and VIX is low at 15.84. Heavy September event calendar (Aug 26 NVDA, Sep 4 payrolls, Sep 11 CPI, Sep 16 FOMC) creates two-sided risk. Few candidates show clean overreaction with independent support, so SPY-heavy positioning is appropriate.
{
"confidence": 0.555,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA results on Aug 26 could drive a large index-level move that overwhelms modest factor tilts",
"September 16 FOMC and Sep 11 CPI could reprice rates sharply, hurting utilities and value simultaneously",
"Continued mega-cap leadership would keep cap-weighted SPY ahead of value and equal-weight tilts",
"Labor-market deterioration (payrolls -23k, benchmark revision Aug 28) could hit small-cap value hardest",
"Low VIX at 15.84 implies limited cushion for a volatility spike"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +3.79% with modest -0.50% recent active",
"Lowest drawdown -2.40% and vol 11.61% among equity slate",
"Highest equity quality score 0.711"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +2.07% turned to -1.79% recent active",
"Quality score 0.710 with shallow -2.75% drawdown",
"Would benefit if September FOMC turns dovish on soft labor data"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.46% recent active, deepest pullback rank 0.955",
"Low SPY beta 0.145 provides defensive ballast",
"-6.54% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Top quality score 0.785 with vol 4.82%",
"Flat 5-session return, -4.30% active over 21 sessions",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.311"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.16%, top prior-trend rank 0.985",
"Recent -2.48% pullback, only -4.66% from high",
"Vol 32.56% raises drawdown risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +1.17 with -4.12% recent active",
"Lowest vol 3.11%",
"Long-end yields elevated at 5.28% 30y"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.03% recent active, pullback rank 0.940",
"Duration exposure with sticky 3.4% CPI",
"Vol 5.61%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +27.88% but vol 54% and beta 2.38",
"NVIDIA results Aug 26 after close inside window",
"-14.82% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, +3.42% over 21 sessions",
"VIX 15.84, only -1.34% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -14.15%, 30y par yield 5.28%",
"PPI +4.7% y/y and hawkish FOMC dissents",
"-8.03% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +56.48%, WTI 84.94",
"Vol 53.63% and -32.49% drawdown",
"Negative SPY beta -1.25 offers hedge value"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+12.84% recent active but prior active -24.23%",
"Quality score 0.037, vol 41.5%",
"China July manufacturing PMI 49.2 weakens demand"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+9.25% recent active after -32.44% prior active",
"-45.61% from 52w high, vol 44%",
"Lowest quality score 0.020"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +1.48 signals flow dislocation",
"Prior active -15.12%",
"Japan Q2 GDP +0.3% q/q, second estimate Sep 8"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-8.43% recent active and -14.35% prior active",
"-18.47% from 52w high",
"Weak China PMI pressures commodity exporters"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-14.04% recent active on top of -13.67% prior active",
"-35.51% drawdown and -32.54% from 52w high",
"Vol 45.79% with quality score 0.383"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"LARGE_VALUE": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Late-cycle mix: sticky 3.4% CPI with 4.7% PPI, softening labor (-23k payrolls, downward revisions) and 1.5% Q2 GDP, with the FOMC on hold at 3.50-3.75% and three hawkish dissents. Long-end yields are high (30y 5.28%), which caps duration reversal. Equity breadth is mediocre (RSP lagging SPY by 1.2% over 21 sessions) and VIX is low at 15.84. Heavy September event calendar (Aug 26 NVDA, Sep 4 payrolls, Sep 11 CPI, Sep 16 FOMC) creates two-sided risk. Few candidates show clean overreaction with independent support, so SPY-heavy positioning is appropriate.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only three candidates combine a genuine recent relative pullback with independent support: LARGE_VALUE and SMALL_VALUE show positive prior relative trends, low volatility and shallow drawdowns with the highest equity quality scores, and UTILITIES shows the deepest recent relative pullback with low beta ahead of a dense macro calendar. High-volatility momentum names (SMH, OIL, XME, SLV) and duration/credit lack in-window support given 3.4% CPI, 4.7% PPI and hawkish FOMC dissents. Edges are modest, so SPY remains the appropriate default for unfilled exposure.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Late-cycle mix: sticky 3.4% CPI with 4.7% PPI, softening labor (-23k payrolls, downward revisions) and 1.5% Q2 GDP, with the FOMC on hold at 3.50-3.75% and three hawkish dissents. Long-end yields are high (30y 5.28%), which caps duration reversal. Equity breadth is mediocre (RSP lagging SPY by 1.2% over 21 sessions) and VIX is low at 15.84. Heavy September event calendar (Aug 26 NVDA, Sep 4 payrolls, Sep 11 CPI, Sep 16 FOMC) creates two-sided risk. Few candidates show clean overreaction with independent support, so SPY-heavy positioning is appropriate.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 29410,
"latency_seconds": 49.78084022999974,
"output_tokens": 4031,
"total_tokens": 33441
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent pullbacks but show potential for reversal based on their quality scores and historical volatility. SOLAR, BRAZIL, and LONG_TREASURY are selected as the top candidates for potential outperformance relative to SPY.
The market is experiencing mixed signals with inflation remaining elevated but economic activity expanding at a solid pace. The recent pullback in some sectors presents potential reversal opportunities, while others may continue their trends.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation remains elevated, which could lead to further interest rate hikes and negatively impact asset prices.",
"Economic growth could slow down more than expected, leading to a broader market downturn."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -5.37% and prior active return of -13.67% suggest a significant pullback.",
"High volatility of 45.79% indicates potential for sharp reversals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.82% and prior active return of -14.35% indicate a pullback.",
"Quality score of 0.444 suggests some underlying strength despite recent weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.64% and prior active return of -14.15% show a significant decline.",
"Quality score of 0.522 indicates potential for a rebound."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.89% and prior active return of -11.06% suggest a mixed picture.",
"Quality score of 0.543 indicates moderate strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.14% and prior active return of -10.23% show weakness.",
"Quality score of 0.632 suggests some resilience."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 2.39% and prior active return of 56.48% indicate strong momentum.",
"High volatility of 53.63% suggests potential for significant moves."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.48% and prior active return of 31.16% show mixed signals.",
"Quality score of 0.537 indicates moderate strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.55% and prior active return of 27.88% suggest a pause in momentum.",
"High volatility of 54.00% indicates potential for sharp moves."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.56% and prior active return of -24.23% show significant weakness.",
"Low quality score of 0.037 suggests fundamental issues."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.90% and prior active return of -32.44% indicate a strong downtrend.",
"Very low quality score of 0.020 suggests significant weakness."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.00% and prior active return of -3.75% show stability.",
"High quality score of 0.785 indicates strong fundamentals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.46% and prior active return of 3.79% suggest a mild pullback.",
"High quality score of 0.711 indicates underlying strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.23% and prior active return of 2.07% show a slight pullback.",
"High quality score of 0.710 suggests resilience."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.26% and prior active return of -15.12% indicate weakness.",
"High volume z-score of 1.48 suggests unusual activity."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.53% and prior active return of -9.71% show a downtrend.",
"High volume z-score of 1.17 indicates unusual activity."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"BRAZIL": 35,
"LONG_TREASURY": 30,
"SOLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing mixed signals with inflation remaining elevated but economic activity expanding at a solid pace. The recent pullback in some sectors presents potential reversal opportunities, while others may continue their trends.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets assets that have experienced significant recent pullbacks but show potential for reversal based on their quality scores and historical volatility. SOLAR, BRAZIL, and LONG_TREASURY are selected as the top candidates for potential outperformance relative to SPY.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing mixed signals with inflation remaining elevated but economic activity expanding at a solid pace. The recent pullback in some sectors presents potential reversal opportunities, while others may continue their trends.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 20404,
"latency_seconds": 26.31954831800249,
"output_tokens": 3553,
"total_tokens": 23957
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The best one-month setup is a diversified reversal basket: value equities retain positive prior relative strength and shallow drawdowns, while investment-grade credit offers a lower-volatility response to weakening labor data. Extreme commodity and solar moves lack sufficient fundamental confirmation.
Weak labor and softer inflation favor selective duration and defensive reversals, but elevated services prices, a hawkish FOMC split, and strong manufacturing argue against an aggressive rates bet. High cross-asset volatility favors quality pullbacks over extreme losers.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September CPI or the FOMC could reprice rates sharply higher, hurting credit and value-sensitive exposures",
"Weak payrolls and retail sales could develop into a broader growth scare that disproportionately hurts small value",
"Strong manufacturing and elevated survey prices could keep long yields high and prevent defensive reversals",
"High-volatility technology and commodity trends could resume and leave the lower-beta selections behind"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 2.07% before a 1.79% recent active pullback",
"Quality score was 0.710 with 14.20% volatility and a shallow 2.75% drawdown",
"Manufacturing PMI was 55.6 despite weaker payrolls"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 3.79% before a modest 0.50% active pullback",
"Quality score was 0.711 with 11.61% volatility and 2.40% drawdown",
"It stood only 0.76% below its 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -5.03% with only 5.61% volatility",
"Quality score was 0.632 and drawdown was limited to 3.31%",
"Payrolls fell 23,000 and prior months were revised down by 103,000"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Slate-leading quality score was 0.785",
"Recent active return was -4.30% with 4.82% volatility and 1.85% drawdown",
"Three FOMC members preferred a rate increase"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -5.68% and it was 8.03% below its 52-week high",
"Payrolls declined and prior months were revised materially lower",
"The 30-year Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.28%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -4.12% with just 3.11% volatility",
"Quality score was 0.661 and drawdown was 2.15%",
"Volume z-score was elevated at 1.17"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -5.46% and pullback rank was 0.955",
"Low SPY beta of 0.14 offers defensive differentiation",
"Weak payroll and retail data could support defensive demand"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 31.16% and recent active return remained positive at 2.74%",
"It was only 4.66% below its 52-week high",
"Volatility was elevated at 32.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 27.88%",
"Recent active return softened to -1.46%",
"Volatility was 54.00%, beta 2.38, and drawdown 24.62%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 56.48% and recent active return was 0.69%",
"WTI was recorded at 84.94",
"Volatility was 53.63% with a 32.49% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was unusually high at 1.48",
"Recent active return was -1.61% after a -15.12% prior active trend",
"Japan's second GDP estimate falls inside the scoring window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -8.43% and pullback rank was 0.985",
"It was 18.47% below its 52-week high",
"Prior active return was also weak at -14.35%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark",
"Its 21-session return was 3.42% and it was 1.34% below its 52-week high",
"VIX closed at 15.84"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return surged 12.84% despite a -24.23% prior active trend",
"Quality score was only 0.037",
"Volatility was 41.48% and drawdown 26.49%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 9.25% after a -32.44% prior active trend",
"Quality score was only 0.020",
"It remained 45.61% below its 52-week high with 44.08% volatility"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -14.04% after a -13.67% prior active trend",
"Drawdown was 35.51% and volatility 45.79%",
"Quality score was only 0.383 despite the deep pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT": 30,
"LARGE_VALUE": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Weak labor and softer inflation favor selective duration and defensive reversals, but elevated services prices, a hawkish FOMC split, and strong manufacturing argue against an aggressive rates bet. High cross-asset volatility favors quality pullbacks over extreme losers.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The best one-month setup is a diversified reversal basket: value equities retain positive prior relative strength and shallow drawdowns, while investment-grade credit offers a lower-volatility response to weakening labor data. Extreme commodity and solar moves lack sufficient fundamental confirmation.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Weak labor and softer inflation favor selective duration and defensive reversals, but elevated services prices, a hawkish FOMC split, and strong manufacturing argue against an aggressive rates bet. High cross-asset volatility favors quality pullbacks over extreme losers.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1M",
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Top ranks favor defensive assets with overreaction labels and sufficient p_beat_spy for potential one-month outperformance amid mixed macro signals.
Mixed signals with equity weakness, defensive pullbacks, and commodity stability amid contained inflation and soft labor data.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC minutes and upcoming GDP revision could shift rate expectations",
"Equity volatility from tech earnings",
"Commodity price swings in oil and metals"
],
"metadata": {
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"evidence": [
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"evidence": [
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"quality evidence score 0.543",
"low vol rank high"
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"evidence": [
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"quality evidence score 0.632"
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"evidence": [
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"quality evidence score 0.661",
"volume z 1.17"
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"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
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{
"evidence": [
"USO recent active 0.69%",
"prior active 56.48%",
"quality evidence score 0.551"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
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"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
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"quality evidence score 0.711"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.3,
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"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
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"evidence": [
"IWN recent active -1.79%",
"quality evidence score 0.710"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"FXY recent active -1.61%",
"volume z 1.48"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY recent active 0.00%",
"spy_return_5s -0.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
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{
"evidence": [
"CIBR recent active 2.74%",
"prior active 31.16%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.3,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
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"evidence": [
"SMH recent active -1.46%",
"high vol 54.00%"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
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"medium_strength"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
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"evidence": [
"EWZ recent active -8.43%",
"quality evidence score 0.444"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
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"evidence": [
"XME recent active 12.84% prior but recent -3.56%",
"quality evidence score 0.037"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
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"evidence": [
"SLV recent active 9.25% prior but recent -1.90%",
"quality evidence score 0.020"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 23,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
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"evidence": [
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"quality evidence score 0.383",
"max drawdown -35.51%"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 18,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
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"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
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"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"LONG_TREASURY": 35,
"US_DOLLAR": 35,
"UTILITIES": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
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"eligible": true,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
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"eligible": true,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
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"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
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{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
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{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
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"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
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"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
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{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
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{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
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{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
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"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 29,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
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"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 26,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
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"selected": false
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{
"eligible": false,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 23,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
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"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
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"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals with equity weakness, defensive pullbacks, and commodity stability amid contained inflation and soft labor data.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"US_DOLLAR",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor defensive assets with overreaction labels and sufficient p_beat_spy for potential one-month outperformance amid mixed macro signals.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals with equity weakness, defensive pullbacks, and commodity stability amid contained inflation and soft labor data.",
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"replicate_index": 1,
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}xai-grok-4-5
Soft labor, moderating growth, and an upcoming FOMC with still-elevated inflation create a mixed one-month tape; the cleanest edges are limited mean-reversion in long duration and rate-sensitive defensives that already show deep active pullbacks and higher quality scores, while high-vol cyclicals and broken clean-energy trends lack reliable support versus SPY.
Soft July payrolls and downward revisions plus solid but moderating GDP sit against still-elevated inflation and a hold-biased FOMC; cross-section shows recent equity softness with rate-sensitive and EM laggards extended lower while oil and some quality factors are firmer, favoring selective reversal over broad continuation into the Sept FOMC window.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Sticky inflation or hawkish Sept FOMC SEP could extend bond and utility underperformance",
"NVIDIA and late-August data (GDP second estimate, PCE) may re-ignite growth/tech leadership against defensives",
"High-vol commodities and EM reversals can gap on supply or China PMI surprises",
"Further labor deterioration could flip risk-off faster than credit spreads allow IG outperformance"
],
"metadata": {
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{
"evidence": [
"Active return -5.68% on 21s after prior -14.15% with quality score 0.522 and high recent pullback rank 0.970",
"July nonfarm payrolls -23k with large downward revisions and unemployment 4.1%",
"FOMC held 3.50-3.75% with statement noting solid activity but elevated inflation; Sept FOMC in window"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
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"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
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"evidence": [
"Active -5.46% recent with prior -11.06%, quality 0.543 and recent pullback rank 0.955",
"Low SPY corr 0.12 and beta 0.14 with horizon vol 15.58%",
"Soft labor and housing data support defensive rate-sensitive bid into Sept policy meeting"
],
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"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
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"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
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"evidence": [
"Active -5.03% with prior -10.23%, quality score 0.632 and pullback rank 0.940",
"Horizon vol only 5.61% and max drawdown -3.31%",
"Treasury curve 10y 4.71% / 30y 5.28% after FOMC hold; credit can stabilize if growth softens without hard landing"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
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"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
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"evidence": [
"Active -8.43% recent after prior -14.35%, pullback rank 0.985 and quality 0.444",
"SPY corr 0.50 beta ~1.0 with distance to 52w high -18.47%",
"EM and commodity-linked equity laggard after multi-window underperformance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
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{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.17 with active -4.12% and quality 0.661",
"Low vol 3.11% and shallow drawdown -2.15%",
"Rate-sensitive fixed income after curve still elevated post-July FOMC"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.785 highest on slate with recent active -4.30%",
"Neg corr to SPY -0.31 and low vol 4.82%",
"Dollar Index future 99.65 context with mixed global PMIs"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.711 with prior active +3.79% and mild recent -0.50%",
"Low distance to 52w high -0.76% and vol 11.61%",
"Value factor near highs while growth/tech softer on Aug 18 session"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality 0.710 with recent active -1.79% and prior +2.07%",
"Vol 14.20% drawdown -2.75% near 52w high -1.31%",
"Domestic small-value sensitive to soft retail and housing prints"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +56.48% extreme with recent +0.69% and quality 0.551",
"Neg SPY corr -0.34; front-month WTI 84.94",
"High vol 53.63% and deep max DD -32.49% limit edge stability"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.48 elevated with active -1.61% and prior -15.12%",
"Japan Q2 GDP prelim +0.3% q/q; quality 0.408",
"Low beta 0.11 but multi-window underperformance vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 5s return -0.40% and 21s +3.42%",
"VIX 15.84 after Aug 18 SPX -0.69%",
"Near 52w high distance -1.34% with vol 13.80%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.16% with recent active +2.74% but 5s -2.48%",
"Quality 0.537; distance to high only -4.66%",
"High prior trend but recent session weakness and vol 32.56%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +27.88% quality 0.613 but recent active -1.46% and high beta 2.38",
"Vol 54% max DD -24.62% distance -14.82%",
"NVIDIA earnings scheduled Aug 26 after regular close inside weekly window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.84% after prior -24.23% but quality score only 0.037",
"5s return -3.56% vol 41.48% DD -26.49%",
"Very low quality evidence ranks across prior trend and pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +9.25% after prior -32.44% with quality 0.020 lowest tier",
"Distance to 52w high -45.61% vol 44.08%",
"Precious metals mixed with gold 21s strong but silver quality ranks near zero"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active -14.04% recent and prior -13.67% with max DD -35.51% and quality 0.383",
"Highest recent pullback rank 1.000 but vol 45.79% beta 1.87",
"Deep 52w distance -32.54% after sustained underperformance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
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"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT": 30,
"LONG_TREASURY": 35,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
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"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Soft July payrolls and downward revisions plus solid but moderating GDP sit against still-elevated inflation and a hold-biased FOMC; cross-section shows recent equity softness with rate-sensitive and EM laggards extended lower while oil and some quality factors are firmer, favoring selective reversal over broad continuation into the Sept FOMC window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Soft labor, moderating growth, and an upcoming FOMC with still-elevated inflation create a mixed one-month tape; the cleanest edges are limited mean-reversion in long duration and rate-sensitive defensives that already show deep active pullbacks and higher quality scores, while high-vol cyclicals and broken clean-energy trends lack reliable support versus SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Soft July payrolls and downward revisions plus solid but moderating GDP sit against still-elevated inflation and a hold-biased FOMC; cross-section shows recent equity softness with rate-sensitive and EM laggards extended lower while oil and some quality factors are firmer, favoring selective reversal over broad continuation into the Sept FOMC window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18218,
"latency_seconds": 57.2825247800065,
"output_tokens": 3612,
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}
}xai-grok-4-6
Near-high SPY, low VIX, and a two-sided September data/FOMC path favor staying close to the benchmark. Highest-quality modest pullbacks (large- and small-cap value) rank ahead of duration and high-vol shock names. No slate name combines a clean overreaction read with a high-confidence one-month edge versus SPY.
SPY is only 1.34% off its 52-week high with low VIX after a modest 5-session dip. Soft July payrolls and housing contrast with still-elevated inflation, a 4.71%/5.28% 10y/30y curve, and a 9-3 FOMC hold with three hike dissenters. Breadth is mixed (39% positive over 5 sessions vs 73% over 21). Duration and high-beta clean-energy/EM shocks look two-sided into September CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC, so one-month edge versus SPY is limited.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 11 CPI and September 15-16 FOMC/SEP can reprice duration and growth stocks sharply.",
"August 26 NVIDIA results and GDP/PCE revisions can swing semiconductors and mega-cap SPY weights.",
"Soft payrolls, retail sales, and housing starts can flip risk appetite if the September employment report confirms labor weakening.",
"Oil and metals remain high-vol with China PMI already below 50."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.711 with prior-active rank 0.821 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.821.",
"Horizon vol 11.61% and max drawdown -2.40% versus SPY 13.80%/-4.49%.",
"Only -0.76% from 52-week high with beta 0.71."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.710 with recent-pullback rank 0.597.",
"Horizon vol 14.20% and drawdown -2.75%; 52-week distance -1.31%.",
"Active 21-session return -1.79% is a modest quality pullback, not a shock."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
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"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return -0.40% and 21-session +3.42%; 52-week distance -1.34%.",
"VIX closed 15.84 on August 18 after a 0.69% S&P 500 down day.",
"Scoring benchmark for the August 19–September 18 window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score at 0.785 with recent-pullback rank 0.910.",
"Horizon vol 4.82%, SPY corr -0.31, 21-session active return -4.30%.",
"Dollar Index future 99.65 on August 18; 5-session return 0.00%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active return -5.46% and prior active -11.06% with recent-pullback rank 0.955.",
"SPY corr 0.12 and beta 0.14; 5-session return +0.89%.",
"Rate-sensitive sector facing 10y indicative yield 4.71% and September FOMC in-window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -5.03% and prior active -10.23%; quality score 0.632.",
"Horizon vol 5.61% and drawdown -3.31%; volume z -0.42.",
"Duration still pressured by 5.28% 30-year indicative par yield."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
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"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.17 with 21-session active -4.12% and quality score 0.661.",
"Horizon vol 3.11% and beta 0.09.",
"Low-vol duration asset after a multi-window bond selloff."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -5.68% and prior active -14.15%; recent-pullback rank 0.970.",
"Horizon vol 9.10%, SPY corr 0.24, 52-week distance -8.03%.",
"Three FOMC members preferred a hike on July 29 and 30y yield is 5.28%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.16% and 21-session active +2.74%; prior-active rank 0.985.",
"5-session return -2.48% with 52-week distance only -4.66%.",
"Horizon vol 32.56% and beta 1.11."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +27.88% and quality score 0.613 despite vol 54.00%.",
"NVIDIA fiscal-Q2 results scheduled ~16:20 ET August 26, inside the monthly window.",
"Beta 2.38 and 52-week distance -14.82%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +56.48% with prior-active rank 1.000; 5-session +2.39%.",
"SPY corr -0.34 and beta -1.25; front-month WTI 84.94 on August 18.",
"Horizon vol 53.63% and max drawdown -32.49%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -8.43% and prior active -14.35%; 52-week distance -18.47%.",
"Quality score 0.444 with prior-active rank only 0.119.",
"China July manufacturing PMI 49.2 is a commodity-EM headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.48 with prior active -15.12% and quality score 0.408.",
"Horizon vol 7.58%; Japan Q2 GDP preliminary +0.3% q/q.",
"5-session return -0.26%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active +12.84% but prior active -24.23% and quality score 0.037.",
"5-session -3.56%; vol 41.48% and drawdown -26.49%.",
"China manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.2."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.020, lowest on the slate; 52-week distance -45.61%.",
"21-session active +9.25% after prior active -32.44%.",
"Horizon vol 44.08% and drawdown -27.95%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 15,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -14.04%, prior active -13.67%, 5-session -5.37%.",
"Horizon vol 45.79%, max drawdown -35.51%, 52-week distance -32.54%.",
"Quality score 0.383 with shallow-drawdown rank 0.000 and beta 1.87."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 16,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"BRAZIL",
"LONG_TREASURY",
"UTILITIES",
"INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 15,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 16,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is only 1.34% off its 52-week high with low VIX after a modest 5-session dip. Soft July payrolls and housing contrast with still-elevated inflation, a 4.71%/5.28% 10y/30y curve, and a 9-3 FOMC hold with three hike dissenters. Breadth is mixed (39% positive over 5 sessions vs 73% over 21). Duration and high-beta clean-energy/EM shocks look two-sided into September CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC, so one-month edge versus SPY is limited.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"LARGE_VALUE",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Near-high SPY, low VIX, and a two-sided September data/FOMC path favor staying close to the benchmark. Highest-quality modest pullbacks (large- and small-cap value) rank ahead of duration and high-vol shock names. No slate name combines a clean overreaction read with a high-confidence one-month edge versus SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is only 1.34% off its 52-week high with low VIX after a modest 5-session dip. Soft July payrolls and housing contrast with still-elevated inflation, a 4.71%/5.28% 10y/30y curve, and a 9-3 FOMC hold with three hike dissenters. Breadth is mixed (39% positive over 5 sessions vs 73% over 21). Duration and high-beta clean-energy/EM shocks look two-sided into September CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC, so one-month edge versus SPY is limited.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-19-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17930,
"latency_seconds": 58.663452403998235,
"output_tokens": 3176,
"reasoning_tokens": 666,
"total_tokens": 21772
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Brazil Equities (EWZ)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | US Large-Cap Value (IWD)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Solar Energy (TAN)35%Brazil Equities (EWZ)35%Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)35%Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | US Dollar (UUP)35%Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 64450a1f3c7a...fc8a96e2 |
| manifest.yaml | 20cfdffecfd9...2af4c620 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | fabf04c53a66...a8aebd88 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | a1c25667bdb4...9a56b184 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | dab775e4ba60...34e10112 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | e51012eed824...aac3d256 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | d50b9c6e7ff4...5f46a581 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 48eda2575346...61c72d55 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |