Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 13.7.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 82.3 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward international equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-10-15 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260915-monthly
29,766 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- Decision date: 2026-09-15
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-09-15T07:31:06Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-09-15T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-09-15
- Exit date: 2026-10-15
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# Market Briefing — September 15, 2026
Research cutoff: September 15, 2026 at 07:31:06 UTC. Latest completed U.S. market session: September 14, 2026. Prospective entry close: September 15, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## Equity markets
- On September 14, the S&P 500 closed at 7,619.98, down 0.5%; the Dow closed at 52,421.20, down 0.3%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,186.41, down 0.6%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,892.24, down 0.4%.
- The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9%. Many stocks outside artificial intelligence rose, limiting the broad-index declines.
- Europe's STOXX 600 fell 0.49%, and MSCI's global equity index fell 0.65%.
## Rates and currencies
- The September 14 U.S. Treasury par curve was 4.65% at two years, 4.80% at five years, 4.97% at ten years, and 5.34% at thirty years. Treasury's par yields are estimates based on indicative secondary-market quotations.
- The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.41. The dollar rose 0.53% against the yen to 154.40, and the euro fell 0.43% to $1.15475.
## Energy and other assets
- Brent crude settled 1% higher at $105.68 per barrel after nearing $110 intraday; it had risen almost 9% in the prior week.
- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was reported temporarily shut after a drone attack. The disruption's duration was unresolved at the cutoff.
- Spot gold fell 1.19% to $4,295.73, while bitcoin rose 2% to $79,152.23.
## China activity
- August industrial value added rose 5.2% from a year earlier and 0.54% from July. Manufacturing rose 6.1%, high-technology manufacturing rose 16.7%, and mining fell 1.4%. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.8.
- August retail sales rose 0.4% from a year earlier and fell 0.13% from July. January–August fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% from a year earlier, or 4.2% excluding real estate; real-estate investment fell 19.9%.
- The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from July. CPI rose 0.8% over the year and PPI rose 3.8%.
## Scheduled events
- The FOMC decision is scheduled for September 16 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference. The outcome is unknown.
- U.S. retail sales and import/export prices are scheduled for September 16; jobless claims, housing starts, and the Philadelphia Fed survey for September 17; and industrial production for September 18.
- New-home sales are scheduled for September 24; durable-goods orders and final September consumer sentiment for September 25; JOLTS for September 29; and GDP, personal income, and outlays for September 30.
- Construction spending is scheduled for October 1 and international trade for October 6. Results for all scheduled releases are unknown, and calendar dates may change.
This briefing is a date-stamped factual snapshot. It does not state expected winners or translate facts into portfolio positions. The complete mechanical appendix that follows is descriptive rather than predictive.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-09-15-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-09-15'
decision_deadline: '2026-09-15T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-96dc9f3d5254
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-09-15T07:31:16.820880+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-6-astra
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-09-15'
exit_date: '2026-10-15'
created_at: '2026-09-15T07:31:16.820880+00:00'
notes: 'Brand-new public-web research frozen after direct source review on 2026-09-15 America/Toronto; latest completed U.S. market session 2026-09-14. No prior input report was copied or reused. Participant calls are one-shot closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# Market Briefing — September 15, 2026
Research cutoff: September 15, 2026 at 07:31:06 UTC. Latest completed U.S. market session: September 14, 2026. Prospective entry close: September 15, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
Price history is descriptive context, not a forecast.
## Equity markets
- On September 14, the S&P 500 closed at 7,619.98, down 0.5%; the Dow closed at 52,421.20, down 0.3%; the Nasdaq Composite closed at 26,186.41, down 0.6%; and the Russell 2000 closed at 2,892.24, down 0.4%.
- The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9%. Many stocks outside artificial intelligence rose, limiting the broad-index declines.
- Europe's STOXX 600 fell 0.49%, and MSCI's global equity index fell 0.65%.
## Rates and currencies
- The September 14 U.S. Treasury par curve was 4.65% at two years, 4.80% at five years, 4.97% at ten years, and 5.34% at thirty years. Treasury's par yields are estimates based on indicative secondary-market quotations.
- The dollar index rose 0.3% to 99.41. The dollar rose 0.53% against the yen to 154.40, and the euro fell 0.43% to $1.15475.
## Energy and other assets
- Brent crude settled 1% higher at $105.68 per barrel after nearing $110 intraday; it had risen almost 9% in the prior week.
- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was reported temporarily shut after a drone attack. The disruption's duration was unresolved at the cutoff.
- Spot gold fell 1.19% to $4,295.73, while bitcoin rose 2% to $79,152.23.
## China activity
- August industrial value added rose 5.2% from a year earlier and 0.54% from July. Manufacturing rose 6.1%, high-technology manufacturing rose 16.7%, and mining fell 1.4%. The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.8.
- August retail sales rose 0.4% from a year earlier and fell 0.13% from July. January–August fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% from a year earlier, or 4.2% excluding real estate; real-estate investment fell 19.9%.
- The urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.3%, up 0.1 percentage point from July. CPI rose 0.8% over the year and PPI rose 3.8%.
## Scheduled events
- The FOMC decision is scheduled for September 16 at 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference. The outcome is unknown.
- U.S. retail sales and import/export prices are scheduled for September 16; jobless claims, housing starts, and the Philadelphia Fed survey for September 17; and industrial production for September 18.
- New-home sales are scheduled for September 24; durable-goods orders and final September consumer sentiment for September 25; JOLTS for September 29; and GDP, personal income, and outlays for September 30.
- Construction spending is scheduled for October 1 and international trade for October 6. Results for all scheduled releases are unknown, and calendar dates may change.
This briefing is a date-stamped factual snapshot. It does not state expected winners or translate facts into portfolio positions. The complete mechanical appendix that follows is descriptive rather than predictive.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-6-astra
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-09-15-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5-1
Favor high-quality domestic equity pullbacks (small cap, small value, mid cap) where prior relative trend was positive, volatility is low, and the sell-off came on light volume into a rate-sensitive FOMC catalyst. Semiconductors get a modest overreaction edge after a one-day 5.9% index shock against a strong prior trend, but the range is very wide. Oil and Ethereum are momentum spikes without independent in-window support; defense and solar show two-window relative deterioration rather than transient shock.
Broad risk-off week with only 16% of assets positive over 5 sessions and 20% over 21 sessions; oil spiked on a Saudi pipeline attack with Brent near $106, yields are high (10y 4.97%, 30y 5.34%), semis fell 5.9% in one session while non-AI stocks rose, and the FOMC decision on Sept 16 is the dominant near-term catalyst. Dispersion is high given oil and crypto up 25-37% active while semis, defense, and solar are down 6-11% active. Mixed pattern: energy/commodity continuation coexists with sharp shock pullbacks in high-quality domestic equity and semis.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish FOMC outcome on Sept 16 with 10y at 4.97% could extend pressure on small caps and long-duration growth",
"Prolonged Saudi pipeline outage pushes Brent past $110, hurting equities broadly while benefiting oil, which is ranked low here",
"Semiconductor selloff may be the start of an AI-capex repricing rather than a one-day shock, given beta 2.39 and 48% volatility",
"Small-cap and mid-cap picks are highly correlated with SPY (0.82/0.81), limiting the excess return upside"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score on slate (0.791) with prior active +5.51% and recent active -2.95%",
"Volatility 13.69%, max drawdown -5.70%, 5.6% below 52w high",
"FOMC decision Sept 16 is a rate-sensitive catalyst for small caps within window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.775; prior active +4.18%, recent active only -1.04%",
"Lowest equity volatility on slate (10.90%) and shallow drawdown -3.72%",
"Volume z -0.91 indicates selling was not a high-volume capitulation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9% on Sept 14 in a single session while non-AI stocks rose",
"Prior 105s active return +34.02% with 19% distance from 52w high; quality score 0.733",
"Volatility 47.79% and beta 2.39 make the range very wide"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.72% versus prior active -0.30%; quality score 0.764",
"Volatility 12.43%, drawdown -6.20%, 6.2% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.35% on top of prior active -4.65%; 8.9% below 52w high",
"Recent pullback rank 0.970 but prior trend was already negative and oil spike raises input costs"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +39.20% (rank 1.000) and +5.77% in the last 5 sessions, 2.1% from 52w high",
"No briefing catalyst supports continuation; volatility 33.10%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY -1.21% over 5 sessions, -2.19% over 21 sessions, 2.19% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.00% following prior active -9.06%; 14.4% below 52w high",
"Deepest recent pullback rank (1.000) but sustained two-window underperformance despite Middle East drone attack"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.51% but -4.43% in 5 sessions alongside the 5.9% semiconductor index drop",
"Volatility 38.14%, drawdown -19.83%, volume z -1.08"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.89% after prior active -7.14%; 16.8% below 52w high",
"Beta 2.20 and volatility 32.70% with yields at 4.97% ten-year headwind for long-duration growth"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO +10.36% in 5 sessions and +25.30% over 21; Brent $105.68 after nearing $110 intraday",
"Saudi East-West pipeline shut after drone attack with duration unresolved; volatility 52.21% and only 1.1% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.85 is the highest on slate; -0.88% in 5 sessions with 3.50% volatility",
"Treasury curve at 4.65% 2y to 5.34% 30y with FOMC Sept 16 unknown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +36.90% after prior active -28.53%; still 46.4% below 52w high",
"Volume z 1.68 and volatility 51.17%; lowest quality score in universe (0.040)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.33% and recent active -9.73%; 37.5% below 52w high",
"Drawdown -26.67%, volatility 36.34%, quality score 0.342 with elevated yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 30,
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Broad risk-off week with only 16% of assets positive over 5 sessions and 20% over 21 sessions; oil spiked on a Saudi pipeline attack with Brent near $106, yields are high (10y 4.97%, 30y 5.34%), semis fell 5.9% in one session while non-AI stocks rose, and the FOMC decision on Sept 16 is the dominant near-term catalyst. Dispersion is high given oil and crypto up 25-37% active while semis, defense, and solar are down 6-11% active. Mixed pattern: energy/commodity continuation coexists with sharp shock pullbacks in high-quality domestic equity and semis.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5-1",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Favor high-quality domestic equity pullbacks (small cap, small value, mid cap) where prior relative trend was positive, volatility is low, and the sell-off came on light volume into a rate-sensitive FOMC catalyst. Semiconductors get a modest overreaction edge after a one-day 5.9% index shock against a strong prior trend, but the range is very wide. Oil and Ethereum are momentum spikes without independent in-window support; defense and solar show two-window relative deterioration rather than transient shock.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Broad risk-off week with only 16% of assets positive over 5 sessions and 20% over 21 sessions; oil spiked on a Saudi pipeline attack with Brent near $106, yields are high (10y 4.97%, 30y 5.34%), semis fell 5.9% in one session while non-AI stocks rose, and the FOMC decision on Sept 16 is the dominant near-term catalyst. Dispersion is high given oil and crypto up 25-37% active while semis, defense, and solar are down 6-11% active. Mixed pattern: energy/commodity continuation coexists with sharp shock pullbacks in high-quality domestic equity and semis.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27192,
"latency_seconds": 44.30264737899415,
"output_tokens": 3840,
"total_tokens": 31032
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
The clearest in-window mechanism is a positioning-driven AI/semiconductor shakeout layered on an intact multi-month relative uptrend: SMH and Taiwan both show strongly positive prior active returns, sharp one-week drops with below-baseline volume, and no supplied fundamental deterioration. Small caps offer a lower-variance quality pullback with the highest quality evidence rank and a positive prior trend, benefiting if the FOMC outcome eases financing conditions. Persistent losers (ITA, TAN) and stretched momentum trades (USO, ETHA, CIBR) are ranked below because the pullback is unsupported or the strength is already fully priced.
Broad de-risking with only ~16% of assets positive over 5 sessions; a sharp semiconductor/AI drawdown (SOX -5.9% on Sep 14) against an oil spike from a Saudi pipeline disruption and firm long yields (30y 5.34%). FOMC on Sep 16 is the dominant near-term catalyst. Dispersion is high and the pattern mixed: AI-complex weakness looks like a positioning shakeout with intact prior trend, while commodity and crypto strength is stretched and unsupported by fundamentals in the window.
{
"confidence": 0.5667,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC decision on September 16 could repricehigh-beta growth sharply against high-beta semiconductor and Taiwan exposure",
"Semiconductor selloff may reflect a real AI capex or earnings deterioration not visible in the frozen briefing, turning reversal into continuation",
"Oil near $106 with an unresolved Saudi pipeline outage could shock inflation expectations and long yields, pressuring cyclicals and small caps",
"High realized volatility (SMH 47.8%, EWT 38.1%) makes one-month excess returns wide in both directions",
"Small-cap outperformance depends on credit conditions; HYG already negative over both windows"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105-session active return +34.0% versus -5.9% recent active",
"SOX fell 5.9% in one session with no stated fundamental news",
"Highest quality evidence score on slate at 0.733"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +5.51% with recent active -2.95%",
"Quality evidence rank 0.791, highest in universe",
"Shallow 63s drawdown -5.70% and modest 13.7% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +35.5% still positive 21s active +1.92%",
"-4.43% 5-session drop tied to semiconductor index selloff",
"Volume z -1.08 indicates low-conviction selling"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -3.72% but prior active roughly flat -0.30%",
"Quality score 0.764"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +4.18%, recent active -1.04%",
"Low vol 10.9% and shallow drawdown -3.72%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+5.77% recent with prior active +39.2%",
"Only -2.10% from 52-week high, little pullback available"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.35% and prior active -4.65%, persistent weakness",
"-8.89% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -7.14% plus recent active -5.89%",
"Beta 2.20 with 32.7% vol amplifies FOMC risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.0% on top of prior active -9.06%",
"-14.39% from 52-week high with no offsetting catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +2.85 signals flow dislocation",
"30-year yield at 5.34% pressures duration"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, -1.21% over 5 sessions, -2.19% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $105.68 after nearing $110; +9% prior week",
"Saudi East-West pipeline outage duration unresolved",
"52.2% vol and USO contango drag; at 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21s active +36.9% after prior active -28.5%",
"Volume z +1.68, vol 51.2%, beta 2.54",
"Lowest quality evidence score 0.040"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -22,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 22,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.3% and recent active -9.73%",
"-37.5% from 52-week high, drawdown -26.7%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"TAIWAN": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"TAIWAN"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Broad de-risking with only ~16% of assets positive over 5 sessions; a sharp semiconductor/AI drawdown (SOX -5.9% on Sep 14) against an oil spike from a Saudi pipeline disruption and firm long yields (30y 5.34%). FOMC on Sep 16 is the dominant near-term catalyst. Dispersion is high and the pattern mixed: AI-complex weakness looks like a positioning shakeout with intact prior trend, while commodity and crypto strength is stretched and unsupported by fundamentals in the window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"TAIWAN"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The clearest in-window mechanism is a positioning-driven AI/semiconductor shakeout layered on an intact multi-month relative uptrend: SMH and Taiwan both show strongly positive prior active returns, sharp one-week drops with below-baseline volume, and no supplied fundamental deterioration. Small caps offer a lower-variance quality pullback with the highest quality evidence rank and a positive prior trend, benefiting if the FOMC outcome eases financing conditions. Persistent losers (ITA, TAN) and stretched momentum trades (USO, ETHA, CIBR) are ranked below because the pullback is unsupported or the strength is already fully priced.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Broad de-risking with only ~16% of assets positive over 5 sessions; a sharp semiconductor/AI drawdown (SOX -5.9% on Sep 14) against an oil spike from a Saudi pipeline disruption and firm long yields (30y 5.34%). FOMC on Sep 16 is the dominant near-term catalyst. Dispersion is high and the pattern mixed: AI-complex weakness looks like a positioning shakeout with intact prior trend, while commodity and crypto strength is stretched and unsupported by fundamentals in the window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27184,
"latency_seconds": 40.5445345309563,
"output_tokens": 3542,
"total_tokens": 30726
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets a reversal in semiconductors, which experienced a sharp recent drop despite strong prior momentum, and high-quality small-cap segments that have pulled back.
The market is facing uncertainty ahead of the FOMC decision, with recent broad equity declines and a sharp drop in semiconductors. Oil is surging due to a supply disruption, while crypto assets show mixed momentum.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The upcoming FOMC decision could introduce significant volatility across all asset classes.",
"The drone attack on Saudi Arabia's pipeline could lead to sustained higher energy prices, impacting broader economic growth and inflation expectations."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9%.",
"Prior active return was 34.02%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -2.74%.",
"Quality score is 0.791."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -2.30%.",
"Quality score is 0.775."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent crude settled 1% higher at $105.68 per barrel after nearing $110 intraday.",
"Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was reported temporarily shut after a drone attack."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 5.77%.",
"Prior active return was 39.20%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -2.72%.",
"Quality score is 0.764."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -3.05%.",
"Quality score is 0.682."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -3.92%.",
"Quality score is 0.625."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -4.43%.",
"Prior active return was 35.51%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -2.17%.",
"Prior active return was -7.14%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -3.79%.",
"Prior active return was -23.33%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was 3.51%.",
"Prior active return was -28.53%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return was -0.88%.",
"Volume z-score is 2.85."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"On September 14, the S&P 500 closed at 7,619.98, down 0.5%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is facing uncertainty ahead of the FOMC decision, with recent broad equity declines and a sharp drop in semiconductors. Oil is surging due to a supply disruption, while crypto assets show mixed momentum.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets a reversal in semiconductors, which experienced a sharp recent drop despite strong prior momentum, and high-quality small-cap segments that have pulled back.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is facing uncertainty ahead of the FOMC decision, with recent broad equity declines and a sharp drop in semiconductors. Oil is surging due to a supply disruption, while crypto assets show mixed momentum.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 18647,
"latency_seconds": 28.493936751037836,
"output_tokens": 2963,
"total_tokens": 21610
}
}openai-gpt-6-astra
Small value and small caps offer modest, explicitly uncertain reversal edges based on contained risk, prior relative strength and limited evidence of rotation outside AI. Oil ranks third on a genuine supply catalyst, not an overreaction classification, and therefore is not eligible under the fixed rule. Other apparent bargains lack enough independent confirmation to reach the eligibility threshold. No wildcard is needed.
Large differences between energy, technology and broader equities indicate high dispersion, although the explicit dispersion statistic is missing. The unresolved pipeline disruption supports oil independently of its recent gains, but also threatens inflation and financing conditions. Selective reversal is more credible in relatively stable small-company exposures than in deeply damaged thematic funds. The September 16 FOMC decision creates substantial two-sided risk; no policy outcome is assumed.
{
"confidence": 0.56,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish FOMC outcome or persistent oil inflation could raise financing costs and invalidate both small-company reversal theses.",
"A rapid pipeline restart could unwind oil's supply premium; prolonged disruption could instead damage broader equity earnings.",
"Small-cap and small-value exposures overlap substantially, so their apparent separate edges may fail together.",
"Weak equal-weight breadth and low positive-asset shares may indicate sustained risk reduction rather than temporary overshooting.",
"The supplied quality scores are constructed from price history, not profitability, leverage or valuation, and cannot establish fundamental resilience."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 4.18%, followed by a recent 1.04-point relative pullback.",
"Volatility of 10.90% and drawdown of 3.72% are comparatively contained; mechanical quality score is 0.775.",
"Many stocks outside AI rose in the latest session, providing limited independent support for rotation rather than broad earnings deterioration."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 5.51% contrasts with a recent 2.95-point relative pullback.",
"Quality score is 0.791, with 13.69% volatility and a 5.70% drawdown; this is price-based quality, not balance-sheet evidence.",
"Latest-session strength outside AI supports a tentative rotation thesis, while the imminent FOMC decision could challenge financing-sensitive stocks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was temporarily shut after a drone attack, with disruption duration unresolved.",
"Oil already gained 25.30% over 21 sessions, leaving considerable normalization risk.",
"Volatility is 52.21% and SPY correlation is -0.35, making the supply shock a distinct but highly uncertain return driver."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 23,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9% in the latest session, while broad-index declines were much smaller.",
"Prior active return was 34.02%, preceding a recent 5.90-point relative decline.",
"A 24.62% drawdown and 47.79% volatility weaken confidence in a quick rebound; no earnings or valuation confirmation is supplied."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -11.00%, the deepest relative pullback in the slate.",
"The drone attack supplies a geopolitical demand narrative, but no defense orders or budget catalyst is provided.",
"Prior active return was already -9.06%, and the fund is 14.39% below its high, limiting reversal conviction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is -3.72%, against a nearly flat prior active return of -0.30%.",
"Quality score is 0.764 and volatility is 12.43%, but the 6.20% drawdown exceeds SPY's.",
"Latest-session gains outside AI offer tentative rotation support; higher energy costs remain a cyclical headwind."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 39.20% is strong, but no cybersecurity-specific operating catalyst is supplied.",
"The five-session gain is 5.77%, while 21-session active return is only 0.08%.",
"Volatility is 33.10% and the fund is only 2.10% below its high, increasing reversal exposure after the bounce."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score is 2.85, but no fund-flow or credit explanation establishes forced selling.",
"Volatility is 3.50% and SPY beta is 0.09, supporting defensive rather than equity-rebound exposure.",
"The FOMC decision and elevated Treasury yields create duration risk despite low historical volatility."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY declined 2.19% over 21 sessions and has a 3.38% horizon drawdown.",
"Many non-AI stocks rose during the latest semiconductor selloff, limiting broad-index losses.",
"SPY is the benchmark, so its excess return is identically zero."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 35.51%, but recent 21-session active return remains positive at 1.92%, weakening the relative-overshoot case.",
"Volatility is 38.14% and drawdown is 19.83%.",
"The semiconductor selloff and stronger dollar present near-term risks without a supplied Taiwan-specific positive catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -6.35% follows prior underperformance of 4.65 points.",
"China's fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% and its manufacturing PMI was 49.8, providing a plausible cyclical concern.",
"Oil above $105 and an unresolved supply disruption weaken the case that the entire pullback is temporary mispricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -5.89% follows prior active return of -7.14%, rather than interrupting strong relative performance.",
"SPY beta is 2.20 and horizon drawdown is 18.66%.",
"No robotics-specific catalyst or fundamental valuation evidence is supplied to distinguish overshooting from persistent repricing."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return is 36.90%, following prior active return of -28.53%.",
"Volume z-score of 1.68 confirms unusual activity, not its persistence or cause.",
"Quality score is 0.040 and volatility is 51.17%; the briefing supplies no Ethereum-specific network, regulatory or flow catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 19,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return of -9.73% extends prior underperformance of 23.33 points.",
"The fund is 37.48% below its high, with a 26.67% horizon drawdown and quality score of 0.342.",
"Elevated Treasury yields remain a financing headwind; no solar policy, earnings or valuation evidence establishes a temporary overshoot."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Large differences between energy, technology and broader equities indicate high dispersion, although the explicit dispersion statistic is missing. The unresolved pipeline disruption supports oil independently of its recent gains, but also threatens inflation and financing conditions. Selective reversal is more credible in relatively stable small-company exposures than in deeply damaged thematic funds. The September 16 FOMC decision creates substantial two-sided risk; no policy outcome is assumed.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-6-astra",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Small value and small caps offer modest, explicitly uncertain reversal edges based on contained risk, prior relative strength and limited evidence of rotation outside AI. Oil ranks third on a genuine supply catalyst, not an overreaction classification, and therefore is not eligible under the fixed rule. Other apparent bargains lack enough independent confirmation to reach the eligibility threshold. No wildcard is needed.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Large differences between energy, technology and broader equities indicate high dispersion, although the explicit dispersion statistic is missing. The unresolved pipeline disruption supports oil independently of its recent gains, but also threatens inflation and financing conditions. Selective reversal is more credible in relatively stable small-company exposures than in deeply damaged thematic funds. The September 16 FOMC decision creates substantial two-sided risk; no policy outcome is assumed.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15393,
"latency_seconds": 56.09096982283518,
"output_tokens": 3335,
"reasoning_tokens": 97,
"total_tokens": 18728
}
}xai-grok-4-3
OIL benefits from supply catalyst with continuation support; CYBERSECURITY shows positive momentum; SP500 as benchmark fallback.
Mixed signals with energy supply shock supporting oil continuation while equity sectors show reversal pressure from recent pullbacks and upcoming FOMC data risk.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC outcome uncertainty",
"Oil supply disruption duration unknown",
"Equity volatility from scheduled data releases"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-11.00 active return",
"quality score 0.625"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-9.73 active return",
"quality score 0.342"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-6.35 active return",
"quality score 0.682"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.90 active return",
"quality score 0.733"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.89 active return",
"quality score 0.582"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5.77 recent return",
"quality score 0.663"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.1,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 41,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.43 recent return",
"quality score 0.532"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3.51 recent return",
"volume z 1.68"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"10.36 recent return",
"Brent pipeline disruption"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 6.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"p_top3_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.95 active return",
"quality score 0.791"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.04 active return",
"quality score 0.775"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-3.72 active return",
"quality score 0.764"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z 2.85",
"low vol 3.50"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark reference",
"-1.21 recent return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals with energy supply shock supporting oil continuation while equity sectors show reversal pressure from recent pullbacks and upcoming FOMC data risk.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SP500"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "OIL benefits from supply catalyst with continuation support; CYBERSECURITY shows positive momentum; SP500 as benchmark fallback.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals with energy supply shock supporting oil continuation while equity sectors show reversal pressure from recent pullbacks and upcoming FOMC data risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15632,
"latency_seconds": 27.127094279043376,
"output_tokens": 1892,
"reasoning_tokens": 524,
"total_tokens": 18048
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Highest-conviction edges are quality pullbacks in small-cap and small-value plus the high-quality semiconductor shock reversal after the 5.9% index drop; all three carry overreaction labels and >=55% p_beat for eligibility, yet overall dispersion and FOMC event risk keep prefer_spy true so unused slots default safely.
Imminent FOMC, oil spike on Saudi pipeline disruption, and sharp semiconductor/tech pullback create mixed cross-section; quality pullbacks in small/mid caps and high-quality semis after oversold sessions offer selective reversal edges versus broad SPY while continuations in oil/crypto carry elevated event risk into the one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC decision and press conference on Sep 16 with unknown outcome can reverse rate-sensitive and growth factors within days",
"Unresolved duration of Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown may extend oil volatility and spill into equities",
"High cross-sectional dispersion and low positive-asset share raise risk that pullback reversals fail if risk-off continues",
"Semiconductor and small-cap betas remain elevated, amplifying any post-FOMC downside"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.791 with strong prior active rank and recent pullback rank",
"recent return -2.74% vs SPY -1.21% with horizon max drawdown only -5.70%",
"volume z -0.90 indicating dislocation without fundamental collapse signals in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9% on Sep 14 while many non-AI stocks rose",
"prior active 34.02% then recent active -5.90% with quality score 0.733",
"high beta 2.39 but deep recent pullback rank 0.955"
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"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
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"medium_strength"
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"rank": 2,
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},
{
"evidence": [
"quality evidence score 0.775 with balanced prior and pullback ranks",
"recent -2.30% and low horizon vol 10.90%",
"shallow drawdown -3.72% relative to broader risk assets"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score 0.764 driven by recent pullback rank 0.925",
"recent return -2.72% active -3.72%",
"SPY corr 0.81 with moderate beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
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"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -3.05% active -6.35% after prior weakness",
"quality score 0.682 with top-tier recent pullback rank 0.970",
"horizon drawdown -8.89%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -3.92% active -11.00% with quality 0.625 and max recent pullback rank 1.000",
"horizon max drawdown -14.39%",
"volume z mild -0.32"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"prior active 35.51% with quality 0.532",
"recent -4.43% but still near 52w high distance only -4.43%",
"semiconductor supply-chain linkage after index selloff"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent -2.17% active -5.89% quality 0.582",
"high recent pullback rank 0.940",
"elevated vol 32.70% and beta 2.20"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +5.77% with prior active 39.20% and quality 0.663",
"distance to 52w high only -2.10%",
"medium_strength lane with low SPY corr 0.51"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
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"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled +1% at $105.68 after nearing $110; prior week almost +9%",
"Saudi East-West pipeline temporarily shut after drone attack duration unresolved",
"USO recent +10.36% active +27.48% with negative SPY corr"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"benchmark with recent -1.21% and 52w-high distance -2.19%",
"FOMC decision Sep 16 outcome unknown",
"positive asset share 5s only 15.94%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
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"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"recent +3.51% active +36.90% after deep prior -28.53%",
"volume z 1.68 dislocation but quality score only 0.040",
"horizon vol 51.17% and 52w distance -46.44%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
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"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"quality score low 0.342 with prior active -23.33%",
"recent -3.79% and max drawdown -26.67%",
"52w-high distance -37.48%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"volume z elevated 2.85 with recent -0.88%",
"low vol 3.50% but prior active -17.76%",
"Treasury curve elevated with 10y at 4.97%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
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"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_CAP",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Imminent FOMC, oil spike on Saudi pipeline disruption, and sharp semiconductor/tech pullback create mixed cross-section; quality pullbacks in small/mid caps and high-quality semis after oversold sessions offer selective reversal edges versus broad SPY while continuations in oil/crypto carry elevated event risk into the one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_CAP",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction edges are quality pullbacks in small-cap and small-value plus the high-quality semiconductor shock reversal after the 5.9% index drop; all three carry overreaction labels and >=55% p_beat for eligibility, yet overall dispersion and FOMC event risk keep prefer_spy true so unused slots default safely.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Imminent FOMC, oil spike on Saudi pipeline disruption, and sharp semiconductor/tech pullback create mixed cross-section; quality pullbacks in small/mid caps and high-quality semis after oversold sessions offer selective reversal edges versus broad SPY while continuations in oil/crypto carry elevated event risk into the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 51.57629794697277,
"output_tokens": 3036,
"reasoning_tokens": 485,
"total_tokens": 20150
}
}xai-grok-4-6
Highest-conviction one-month edges are modest mean-reversion in quality small-value/small-cap and industrials after contained pullbacks; high-beta shock names, oil, crypto, and munis lack a reliable excess-return distribution versus SPY into FOMC and oil-supply headlines.
SPY is modestly lower into FOMC with very few assets positive over 5 sessions, oil and crypto showing short continuation while semis/industrials/small-caps show shock or quality pullbacks; one-month edge is mixed and event-dominated rather than a clean trend.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Unknown FOMC outcome on Sep 16 can reverse both duration-sensitive small caps and cyclicals within the scoring window.",
"Unresolved Saudi pipeline disruption and Brent near $105 can keep oil volatility elevated and pressure risk appetite.",
"Semiconductor/Taiwan beta remains high after the Sep 14 SOX drop, so a growth-led rebound or further washout can dominate cross-section.",
"Positive-asset share of 15.94% over 5 sessions implies crowded downside that can persist if data (retail sales, claims, industrial production) disappoint."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.775 with prior active rank 0.821 and recent pullback rank 0.716.",
"Horizon vol 10.90% and max drawdown -3.72% are milder than most slate cyclicals.",
"Recent return -2.30% versus SPY -1.21% with beta 0.94."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score on the slate at 0.791 with prior active rank 0.836.",
"Russell 2000 closed down 0.4% on Sep 14, similar to large caps, after a -2.74% 5-session move.",
"Horizon vol 13.69% and drawdown -5.70% remain contained versus high-beta tech."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Shock-reversal lane with recent return -3.05% and recent active -6.35%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.682 and recent pullback rank 0.970.",
"Beta 0.96 and vol 16.63% are closer to SPY than other shock names."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -11.00% and 52w-high distance -14.39%.",
"Recent pullback rank 1.000 in the quality table.",
"Quality score 0.625 with vol 21.55%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.764 with recent pullback rank 0.925.",
"Recent return -2.72% and horizon drawdown -6.20%.",
"SPY corr 0.81 and beta 0.98."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -1.21% and 21-session -2.19% with distance to 52w high -2.19%.",
"FOMC decision is scheduled Sep 16 with unknown outcome.",
"Positive asset share over 5 sessions is only 15.94%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Philadelphia semiconductor index fell 5.9% on Sep 14; SMH 5-session return -4.50%.",
"Prior 105s active return +34.02% with quality score 0.733 but vol 47.79% and drawdown -24.62%.",
"Beta 2.39 versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.985 and prior 105s active +35.51%.",
"Recent return -4.43% with vol 38.14% and beta 1.85.",
"Quality score 0.532 with weak low-vol and drawdown ranks."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -5.89% and volume z -1.19.",
"Horizon vol 32.70% and max drawdown -18.66%.",
"Quality score 0.582 with recent pullback rank 0.940."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +39.20% and prior active rank 1.000.",
"Recent return +5.77% with distance to 52w high only -2.10%.",
"Vol 33.10% and SPY corr 0.51."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"USO 5-session return +10.36% and 21-session +25.30%.",
"Brent settled 1% higher at $105.68 after nearing $110; Saudi East-West pipeline reported temporarily shut after a drone attack.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.35 and vol 52.21%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +36.90% after prior 105s active -28.53%.",
"Volume z 1.68 with quality score 0.040.",
"Vol 51.17%, beta 2.54, 52w-high distance -46.44%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation",
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 2.85 with horizon vol 3.50%.",
"Recent return -0.88% and beta 0.09.",
"Treasury par curve 4.97% at 10y and 5.34% at 30y into FOMC."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active -23.33% and prior active rank 0.060.",
"52w-high distance -37.48% with max drawdown -26.67% and vol 36.34%.",
"Quality score 0.342 despite extreme recent pullback rank 0.985."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SOLAR",
"INDUSTRIALS",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"TAIWAN",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"OIL",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"MID_CAP",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"INDUSTRIALS": 30,
"SMALL_CAP": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MID_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "TAIWAN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 34,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP",
"INDUSTRIALS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is modestly lower into FOMC with very few assets positive over 5 sessions, oil and crypto showing short continuation while semis/industrials/small-caps show shock or quality pullbacks; one-month edge is mixed and event-dominated rather than a clean trend.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP",
"INDUSTRIALS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "INDUSTRIALS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Highest-conviction one-month edges are modest mean-reversion in quality small-value/small-cap and industrials after contained pullbacks; high-beta shock names, oil, crypto, and munis lack a reliable excess-return distribution versus SPY into FOMC and oil-supply headlines.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is modestly lower into FOMC with very few assets positive over 5 sessions, oil and crypto showing short continuation while semis/industrials/small-caps show shock or quality pullbacks; one-month edge is mixed and event-dominated rather than a clean trend.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-09-15-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16771,
"latency_seconds": 49.99211066705175,
"output_tokens": 2689,
"reasoning_tokens": 518,
"total_tokens": 19978
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5.1 anthropic-claude-fable-5-1 | Anthropic | US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Semiconductors (SMH)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%Taiwan Equities (EWT)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-6 Astra openai-gpt-6-astra | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)35%Industrials Sector (XLI)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | c1c7548c0f91...44b4a493 |
| manifest.yaml | 4726bc140393...51a46508 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 58132e2a1774...e74dd671 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | a946b92460de...70b4e57b |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 9d3ec753c688...c8b384e6 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 34aebb66e665...b5823744 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | a59261db041c...8d4f7fcc |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 60629bbc0249...3ad7da86 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |