Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Grok 4.5 is lowest at 2.5.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 76.6 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward growth and technology.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-24 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260823-monthly
33,562 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Semiconductors (SMH)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-23
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-23T21:03:16Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-24T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-24
- Exit date: 2026-09-24
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Market Briefing — August 23, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-08-23T21:03:16Z. The latest completed U.S. trading session was Friday, August 21, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. market close and cross-assets
- Associated Press reported August 21 closes of 7,674.37 for the S&P 500, up 0.4%; 53,277.01 for the Dow, up 1.0%; 26,180.45 for the Nasdaq Composite, up 0.4%; and 3,017.87 for the Russell 2000, up 0.9%.
- Associated Press reported weekly changes of -1.4% for the S&P 500, -0.8% for the Dow, -2.1% for the Nasdaq Composite, and -1.6% for the Russell 2000.
- Associated Press reported that preliminary S&P Global U.S. business activity reached a 52-month high on August 21. The reading is preliminary survey evidence.
- Associated Press reported that Brent crude settled at $92.67 a barrel on August 21, up 0.8%, amid source-reported uncertainty about Persian Gulf tanker flows and the Iran conflict.
- Associated Press reported bitcoin above $77,000 on August 21 after a level below $63,000 one week earlier, and gold briefly above $4,690 an ounce after a level below $4,440 one week earlier. The bitcoin and gold figures are approximate intraday levels.
- Cboe showed September, October, and November 2026 VIX futures at 14.96, 16.76, and 18.58 at 15:14:46 ET on August 21. Cboe labels the data informational and does not guarantee completeness or accuracy.
## Rates and monetary policy
- The U.S. Treasury curve on August 21 showed 3.80% at one month, 4.03% at one year, 4.24% at two years, 4.43% at five years, 4.74% at ten years, and 5.27% at thirty years.
- The ten- and thirty-year Treasury rates were 4.69% and 5.23% on August 20.
- The Federal Reserve maintained a 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target range on July 29 by a 9–3 vote; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
- Federal Reserve minutes released August 19 said most participants supported holding rates at the July meeting. Many said further tightening would likely be appropriate if inflation did not decline; several favored an increase at that meeting.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16. The schedule is subject to change.
## U.S. inflation, labor, spending, and growth
- BLS reported July CPI up 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year.
- BLS reported July shelter and food prices each up 0.1% month over month, energy prices down 1.5% month over month, and energy prices up 14.7% year over year.
- BLS reported July final-demand PPI unchanged month over month and up 4.7% year over year. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7% during the month.
- BLS reported July nonfarm payroll employment down 23,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and labor-force participation at 61.4%.
- BLS revised May payroll growth from 129,000 to 63,000 and June growth from 57,000 to 20,000, a combined reduction of 103,000. Payroll estimates are subject to further revision.
- Census reported advance July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% month over month with a ±0.4 percentage-point sampling margin and up 5.0% year over year with a ±0.5-point margin.
- BEA reported June personal income and disposable personal income each up 0.2%, personal consumption expenditures up 0.3%, and the personal saving rate at 2.7%.
- BEA's advance estimate placed second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real private domestic final purchases grew 3.9%.
- BEA's advance estimate showed second-quarter annualized increases of 5.7% for the gross-domestic-purchases price index, 5.1% for PCE prices, and 3.4% for PCE prices excluding food and energy. The GDP estimates are subject to revision.
## U.S. industry, housing, and energy
- The Federal Reserve reported July industrial production up 0.2%, manufacturing output up 0.2%, and manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts up 0.4%. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its long-run average.
- The Philadelphia Fed's August regional manufacturing survey reported current general activity at 47.4, new orders at 30.1, shipments at 27.7, prices paid at 40.9, prices received at 17.7, and employment at 27.9. These are regional diffusion indexes from an August 10–17 survey.
- Census reported July housing starts at a 1.239 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% month over month with a ±9.5 percentage-point margin. Single-family starts fell 9.9% with a ±10.4-point margin, which was not statistically distinguishable from zero.
- Census reported July building permits at a 1.443 million annual rate, up 5.0% month over month; single-family permits were 894,000, up 2.5%.
- EIA reported U.S. crude oil and petroleum-product stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 1,245.302 million barrels for the week ending August 14, up from 1,236.468 million one week earlier. Weekly estimates are preliminary.
## International data and policy
- Eurostat reported final euro-area July inflation of 2.9% year over year, up from 2.8% in June; inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was 2.5%. The all-items index rose 0.2% month over month.
- The ECB left its three key interest rates unchanged on July 23 and described the outlook as uncertain because of the Middle East conflict and energy-price volatility.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July industrial value added up 4.5% year over year in real terms and 0.11% month over month. Manufacturing rose 5.5% year over year and high-technology manufacturing rose 16.9%.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July retail sales up 0.6% year over year and 0.06% month over month. January–July retail sales rose 1.2% year over year; retail sales excluding automobiles rose 2.7%.
- China's July motor-vehicle retail sales at enterprises above designated size fell 17.0% year over year, while communications-equipment retail sales rose 20.4%. The reported year-over-year retail rates are not adjusted for price changes.
## Scheduled events
- Census scheduled July new-home sales for Tuesday, August 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- BEA scheduled the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July Personal Income and Outlays for Wednesday, August 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- NVIDIA scheduled fiscal 2027 second-quarter results for Wednesday, August 26 at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT and a conference call for 2:00 p.m. PT. The quarter ended July 26.
- Release and corporate-event schedules can change.
This briefing remains a dated factual record. It assigns no expected direction or relative merit to any option; the complete mechanical appendix and deterministic V3 slate are separate, uniformly generated inputs.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-23-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-23'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-24T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-23T21:05:53.900091+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-24'
exit_date: '2026-09-24'
created_at: '2026-08-23T21:05:53.900091+00:00'
notes: 'Brand-new public-web research frozen at 2026-08-23T21:03:16Z; latest completed U.S. market session 2026-08-21. No prior input report was opened, copied, or used. Participant calls are one-shot closed-capability evaluations with tools and search disabled.'# CapitalBench Market Briefing — August 23, 2026
Research cutoff: 2026-08-23T21:03:16Z. The latest completed U.S. trading session was Friday, August 21, 2026.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## U.S. market close and cross-assets
- Associated Press reported August 21 closes of 7,674.37 for the S&P 500, up 0.4%; 53,277.01 for the Dow, up 1.0%; 26,180.45 for the Nasdaq Composite, up 0.4%; and 3,017.87 for the Russell 2000, up 0.9%.
- Associated Press reported weekly changes of -1.4% for the S&P 500, -0.8% for the Dow, -2.1% for the Nasdaq Composite, and -1.6% for the Russell 2000.
- Associated Press reported that preliminary S&P Global U.S. business activity reached a 52-month high on August 21. The reading is preliminary survey evidence.
- Associated Press reported that Brent crude settled at $92.67 a barrel on August 21, up 0.8%, amid source-reported uncertainty about Persian Gulf tanker flows and the Iran conflict.
- Associated Press reported bitcoin above $77,000 on August 21 after a level below $63,000 one week earlier, and gold briefly above $4,690 an ounce after a level below $4,440 one week earlier. The bitcoin and gold figures are approximate intraday levels.
- Cboe showed September, October, and November 2026 VIX futures at 14.96, 16.76, and 18.58 at 15:14:46 ET on August 21. Cboe labels the data informational and does not guarantee completeness or accuracy.
## Rates and monetary policy
- The U.S. Treasury curve on August 21 showed 3.80% at one month, 4.03% at one year, 4.24% at two years, 4.43% at five years, 4.74% at ten years, and 5.27% at thirty years.
- The ten- and thirty-year Treasury rates were 4.69% and 5.23% on August 20.
- The Federal Reserve maintained a 3.50%–3.75% federal-funds target range on July 29 by a 9–3 vote; three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
- Federal Reserve minutes released August 19 said most participants supported holding rates at the July meeting. Many said further tightening would likely be appropriate if inflation did not decline; several favored an increase at that meeting.
- The next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15–16. The schedule is subject to change.
## U.S. inflation, labor, spending, and growth
- BLS reported July CPI up 0.1% month over month and 3.4% year over year. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% month over month and 2.5% year over year.
- BLS reported July shelter and food prices each up 0.1% month over month, energy prices down 1.5% month over month, and energy prices up 14.7% year over year.
- BLS reported July final-demand PPI unchanged month over month and up 4.7% year over year. Final-demand services rose 0.2%, construction rose 2.2%, and goods fell 0.7% during the month.
- BLS reported July nonfarm payroll employment down 23,000, unemployment at 4.1%, and labor-force participation at 61.4%.
- BLS revised May payroll growth from 129,000 to 63,000 and June growth from 57,000 to 20,000, a combined reduction of 103,000. Payroll estimates are subject to further revision.
- Census reported advance July retail and food-services sales of $763.6 billion, down 0.6% month over month with a ±0.4 percentage-point sampling margin and up 5.0% year over year with a ±0.5-point margin.
- BEA reported June personal income and disposable personal income each up 0.2%, personal consumption expenditures up 0.3%, and the personal saving rate at 2.7%.
- BEA's advance estimate placed second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real private domestic final purchases grew 3.9%.
- BEA's advance estimate showed second-quarter annualized increases of 5.7% for the gross-domestic-purchases price index, 5.1% for PCE prices, and 3.4% for PCE prices excluding food and energy. The GDP estimates are subject to revision.
## U.S. industry, housing, and energy
- The Federal Reserve reported July industrial production up 0.2%, manufacturing output up 0.2%, and manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts up 0.4%. Capacity utilization was 76.3%, 3.1 percentage points below its long-run average.
- The Philadelphia Fed's August regional manufacturing survey reported current general activity at 47.4, new orders at 30.1, shipments at 27.7, prices paid at 40.9, prices received at 17.7, and employment at 27.9. These are regional diffusion indexes from an August 10–17 survey.
- Census reported July housing starts at a 1.239 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, down 12.4% month over month with a ±9.5 percentage-point margin. Single-family starts fell 9.9% with a ±10.4-point margin, which was not statistically distinguishable from zero.
- Census reported July building permits at a 1.443 million annual rate, up 5.0% month over month; single-family permits were 894,000, up 2.5%.
- EIA reported U.S. crude oil and petroleum-product stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at 1,245.302 million barrels for the week ending August 14, up from 1,236.468 million one week earlier. Weekly estimates are preliminary.
## International data and policy
- Eurostat reported final euro-area July inflation of 2.9% year over year, up from 2.8% in June; inflation excluding energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was 2.5%. The all-items index rose 0.2% month over month.
- The ECB left its three key interest rates unchanged on July 23 and described the outlook as uncertain because of the Middle East conflict and energy-price volatility.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July industrial value added up 4.5% year over year in real terms and 0.11% month over month. Manufacturing rose 5.5% year over year and high-technology manufacturing rose 16.9%.
- China's National Bureau of Statistics reported July retail sales up 0.6% year over year and 0.06% month over month. January–July retail sales rose 1.2% year over year; retail sales excluding automobiles rose 2.7%.
- China's July motor-vehicle retail sales at enterprises above designated size fell 17.0% year over year, while communications-equipment retail sales rose 20.4%. The reported year-over-year retail rates are not adjusted for price changes.
## Scheduled events
- Census scheduled July new-home sales for Tuesday, August 25 at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- BEA scheduled the second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July Personal Income and Outlays for Wednesday, August 26 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- NVIDIA scheduled fiscal 2027 second-quarter results for Wednesday, August 26 at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT and a conference call for 2:00 p.m. PT. The quarter ended July 26.
- Release and corporate-event schedules can change.
This briefing remains a dated factual record. It assigns no expected direction or relative merit to any option; the complete mechanical appendix and deterministic V3 slate are separate, uniformly generated inputs.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "6d8fe72addba245a06d636388b4c4ee16cc16c457c8ca23fb13424f77c34f04f",
"manifest.yaml": "2ec5aa41466eda284be84004eaacdab2da4c6ecef0ea018d71174803506152f2",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "7cf6ae5df6d74ac95e81035c2a281e065defa1ab71ccf61e1890d05bb84ecfdd",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "f37332bbd4477f5901b929cbdec16002bf34380d4b9d4b011ac3fe426a277418",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "bac038c2fc36e68365eee93e0fb8e5d0e40d481f9a480b4552a9bb1355335c35",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "302456feeec17fe2bd8640f9623de24046bf6c4a6f7f5bef53a27c446ed99701",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "a33a0e1f0d8cfcbf70c224a28f0737fedf06f90a0251d6c3e4932058904a6541",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "554818691a7f6d5fca78828fd1e0b43d65777cf98fd821d9de1f7c5b36bb515f",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "b0cf9b835591ce66e32f658ea0a409637a6f58535c6e08290b08283733e9174a",
"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-23-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Semis lead: a strong prior relative trend, a quality pullback profile, and the NVIDIA report on Aug 26 as a concrete in-window catalyst. Oil and energy (wildcard) offer overreaction pullbacks against an intact geopolitical supply-risk backdrop (Brent $92.67, Gulf tanker uncertainty) with negative-to-low SPY correlation, diversifying the semi bet. Crypto and silver are momentum churn without support; utilities and solar face rate/fundamental headwinds.
SPY fell 1.4% on the week while geopolitics (Iran conflict, Brent $92.67), sticky inflation, and a hawkish Fed minutes create a mixed tape. Strong prior-trend leaders (semis, oil) pulled back on what looks like temporary risk-off rather than fundamental deterioration, with NVIDIA earnings Aug 26 a concrete in-window catalyst. Crypto and metals show speculative continuation; defensive rate-sensitive assets remain pressured by 4.74% 10-year yields.
{
"confidence": 0.5733,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA earnings disappoint, driving outsized SMH downside given 2.36 beta and 53% vol",
"Gulf de-escalation could reverse oil and energy quickly",
"Fed hawkishness (minutes flag possible hikes) pressures all risk assets into the Sept 15-16 FOMC",
"Crypto momentum continuation could make ETHA/IBIT the actual top performers, hurting relative rank"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +32.15% with -7.13% recent active pullback; top quality score tier (0.743)",
"NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results scheduled Aug 26, within scoring window",
"52-week high distance -16.22% after broad tech-led weekly selloff"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +64.89% with -7.21% recent active pullback; highest quality score (0.752)",
"Brent settled $92.67 Aug 21 amid Persian Gulf tanker-flow uncertainty and Iran conflict",
"Negative SPY beta (-1.27) offers diversification in risk-off scenarios"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"XLE +2.79% recent but only 0.17% off 52w high after months of relative lag vs oil's 64.9% prior active run",
"Brent $92.67 with Gulf supply risk supports sector earnings into September",
"Low SPY correlation (-0.16) hedges equity drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+3.33% recent return but -6.80% active and -14.89% prior active; weak trend overall",
"Commodity strength (oil, metals) supportive but dollar weakness only modest"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.37% week, 1.56% off 52w high",
"52-month high preliminary PMI supports baseline equity exposure"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +29.99% but recent active still +4.40% — no meaningful pullback to buy",
"Low recent pullback rank (0.149) despite strong prior trend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.04% recent active, modest prior +3.20%; volume z -1.08 shows fading interest",
"Payrolls -23k and negative revisions weigh on domestically sensitive small caps"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+16.75% recent active but -39.69% prior active and -40.61% off 52w high",
"Lowest quality score in universe (0.019); high 44% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+28.63% recent after prior -12.88% active; -50% off 52w high",
"60% vol and bitcoin's sharp $63k->$77k swing suggest speculative churn, not durable edge"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-11.13% recent active with 10y at 4.74% and 30y 5.27% pressuring rate-sensitive defensives",
"Fed minutes signal possible further tightening; prior active also negative (-6.60%)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Low 5.13% vol makes beating SPY unlikely absent equity selloff",
"-2.31% 21s return in downtrend despite hawkish Fed minutes"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +1.57 dislocation but -13.16% prior active downtrend intact",
"Low vol currency unlikely to outrun equities over one month"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-10.41% recent active on top of -19.22% prior active; persistent downtrend, -33% off high",
"-35.5% max drawdown and 44.6% vol with no in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"ENERGY": 30,
"OIL": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"ENERGY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY fell 1.4% on the week while geopolitics (Iran conflict, Brent $92.67), sticky inflation, and a hawkish Fed minutes create a mixed tape. Strong prior-trend leaders (semis, oil) pulled back on what looks like temporary risk-off rather than fundamental deterioration, with NVIDIA earnings Aug 26 a concrete in-window catalyst. Crypto and metals show speculative continuation; defensive rate-sensitive assets remain pressured by 4.74% 10-year yields.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"ENERGY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Semis lead: a strong prior relative trend, a quality pullback profile, and the NVIDIA report on Aug 26 as a concrete in-window catalyst. Oil and energy (wildcard) offer overreaction pullbacks against an intact geopolitical supply-risk backdrop (Brent $92.67, Gulf tanker uncertainty) with negative-to-low SPY correlation, diversifying the semi bet. Crypto and silver are momentum churn without support; utilities and solar face rate/fundamental headwinds.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY fell 1.4% on the week while geopolitics (Iran conflict, Brent $92.67), sticky inflation, and a hawkish Fed minutes create a mixed tape. Strong prior-trend leaders (semis, oil) pulled back on what looks like temporary risk-off rather than fundamental deterioration, with NVIDIA earnings Aug 26 a concrete in-window catalyst. Crypto and metals show speculative continuation; defensive rate-sensitive assets remain pressured by 4.74% 10-year yields.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28321,
"latency_seconds": 46.16684546598117,
"output_tokens": 3680,
"total_tokens": 32001
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only three candidates combine a genuine relative pullback with intact prior trend and identifiable in-window support: semiconductors ahead of the Aug 26 NVIDIA report, cybersecurity after a sharp week against a strong medium-horizon trend, and small caps whose decline came on unusually light volume near highs. Stretched momentum trades (silver, ether) and structurally impaired names (solar, utilities) are ranked low, and defensive currency exposures offer too little upside for a one-month equity benchmark.
Late-cycle mix: sticky inflation (July CPI 3.4% y/y, PPI 4.7%, Q2 PCE prices 5.1% annualized), a hawkish Fed with three members wanting hikes, a 4.74%/5.27% long end, and softening labor (payrolls -23k, large downward revisions) against a 52-month high in business activity. Equities pulled back 1.4% on the week with breadth mildly favoring equal weight. Semis and momentum led the drawdown ahead of NVIDIA's Aug 26 report, a genuine in-window catalyst. Precious metals and crypto ran hard; those are stretched rather than supported. Highest-conviction reversal candidate is semiconductors, where a deep relative pullback sits on top of a very strong prior trend and a dated catalyst.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A disappointing NVIDIA report on Aug 26 could deepen semiconductor and momentum drawdowns rather than reverse them",
"Hawkish September FOMC or an upside inflation surprise could lift long yields further and hit high-beta growth and small caps",
"Persian Gulf escalation could spike oil and compress equity multiples across the selected high-beta positions",
"Continued labor-market deterioration after large payroll revisions would hurt small caps disproportionately"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -7.13% against prior active +32.15%",
"Top quality evidence score 0.743 with 0.955 recent pullback rank",
"NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results scheduled Aug 26, inside the scoring window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.77% in the latest week despite prior active +29.99%",
"Only -7.19% from 52-week high with moderate 33% vol",
"Positive 21-session active return of +4.40%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.68% week with volume z of -1.08 indicates low-conviction selling",
"Prior active +3.20% and only -1.68% from 52-week high",
"Equal-weight outperformance of SPY by 0.87% over both windows"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled $92.67 with Persian Gulf tanker uncertainty",
"+6.35% recent week but 21-session active -7.21%",
"EIA stocks rose to 1,245.3 million barrels"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 26,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"21-session active -6.80% and prior active -14.89%",
"-15.18% from 52-week high",
"Weak dollar backdrop with UUP -2.31% over 21 sessions"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Worst 21-session active at -11.13% with prior active also -6.60%",
"30-year yield rose to 5.27%, pressuring rate-sensitive defensives",
"-9.19% from 52-week high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Low 5.13% volatility and -2.52% drawdown",
"21-session active -6.04% amid dollar weakness",
"Hawkish Fed minutes could support the dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z of 1.57, the highest in the slate",
"Prior active -13.16% with wide US-Japan rate differentials",
"Low 7.91% volatility limits upside versus equities"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with -1.37% recent week and +3.73% over 21 sessions",
"VIX futures term structure at 14.96 for September"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+7.25% week and +16.75% 21-session active after gold above $4,690",
"Lowest quality evidence score at 0.019 with prior active -39.69%",
"44% volatility and -27.7% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+28.63% week after bitcoin moved from below $63,000 to above $77,000",
"59.6% volatility, -50.15% from 52-week high",
"Quality evidence score 0.096"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -25,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 22,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -19.22% plus recent active -10.41%",
"-35.51% drawdown and -33.29% from 52-week high",
"44.6% volatility with rising long-term yields"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SMALL_CAP"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Late-cycle mix: sticky inflation (July CPI 3.4% y/y, PPI 4.7%, Q2 PCE prices 5.1% annualized), a hawkish Fed with three members wanting hikes, a 4.74%/5.27% long end, and softening labor (payrolls -23k, large downward revisions) against a 52-month high in business activity. Equities pulled back 1.4% on the week with breadth mildly favoring equal weight. Semis and momentum led the drawdown ahead of NVIDIA's Aug 26 report, a genuine in-window catalyst. Precious metals and crypto ran hard; those are stretched rather than supported. Highest-conviction reversal candidate is semiconductors, where a deep relative pullback sits on top of a very strong prior trend and a dated catalyst.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only three candidates combine a genuine relative pullback with intact prior trend and identifiable in-window support: semiconductors ahead of the Aug 26 NVIDIA report, cybersecurity after a sharp week against a strong medium-horizon trend, and small caps whose decline came on unusually light volume near highs. Stretched momentum trades (silver, ether) and structurally impaired names (solar, utilities) are ranked low, and defensive currency exposures offer too little upside for a one-month equity benchmark.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Late-cycle mix: sticky inflation (July CPI 3.4% y/y, PPI 4.7%, Q2 PCE prices 5.1% annualized), a hawkish Fed with three members wanting hikes, a 4.74%/5.27% long end, and softening labor (payrolls -23k, large downward revisions) against a 52-month high in business activity. Equities pulled back 1.4% on the week with breadth mildly favoring equal weight. Semis and momentum led the drawdown ahead of NVIDIA's Aug 26 report, a genuine in-window catalyst. Precious metals and crypto ran hard; those are stretched rather than supported. Highest-conviction reversal candidate is semiconductors, where a deep relative pullback sits on top of a very strong prior trend and a dated catalyst.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28321,
"latency_seconds": 38.25651578299585,
"output_tokens": 3283,
"total_tokens": 31604
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks (overreactions) but maintain strong underlying fundamentals or catalysts. Utilities offer a defensive reversal play, Semiconductors have a major upcoming catalyst (NVIDIA earnings), and Small Caps show a volume dislocation with solid quality.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent slight pullbacks in major indices but strong underlying economic data, such as the 52-month high in business activity. Inflation remains moderate, and the Fed is holding rates steady, suggesting a stable but cautious environment.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA earnings could disappoint, negatively impacting the Semiconductor allocation.",
"A sudden shift in Fed policy expectations could disrupt the Utilities and Small Cap thesis."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.48% with a high quality score of 0.659.",
"100% recent pullback rank suggests a deep short-term drop."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.66% despite a strong prior active return of 32.15%.",
"NVIDIA earnings scheduled for August 26 could act as a catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.68% with a volume z-score of -1.08.",
"Quality score of 0.701 indicates solid underlying fundamentals."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 6.35% supported by Brent crude settling higher amid geopolitical uncertainty.",
"High quality score of 0.752."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 7.25% and recent active return of 16.75%.",
"Very low quality score of 0.019 suggests high risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme recent return of 28.63% but very high volatility (59.55%).",
"Low quality score of 0.096."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.77% with a moderate quality score of 0.537."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 3.33% but negative prior active return of -14.89%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -5.10% and deep prior active return of -19.22%.",
"High volatility of 44.62%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.75% with low volatility (5.13%).",
"High quality score of 0.787."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 1,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z-score of 1.57.",
"Recent return of 0.21%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark option."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 30,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent slight pullbacks in major indices but strong underlying economic data, such as the 52-month high in business activity. Inflation remains moderate, and the Fed is holding rates steady, suggesting a stable but cautious environment.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks (overreactions) but maintain strong underlying fundamentals or catalysts. Utilities offer a defensive reversal play, Semiconductors have a major upcoming catalyst (NVIDIA earnings), and Small Caps show a volume dislocation with solid quality.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent slight pullbacks in major indices but strong underlying economic data, such as the 52-month high in business activity. Inflation remains moderate, and the Fed is holding rates steady, suggesting a stable but cautious environment.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19517,
"latency_seconds": 19.861788142996375,
"output_tokens": 2670,
"total_tokens": 22187
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Semiconductors combine a deep relative pullback with an immediate earnings catalyst, oil retains geopolitical supply support after relative weakness, and the dollar offers a lower-volatility reversal backed by hawkish policy risk. Other slate candidates either lack an in-window catalyst or show weak underlying trends.
Wide cross-asset performance gaps, weakening labor and spending data, hawkish rate risk, and near-term geopolitical and earnings catalysts favor selective reversals rather than broad continuation.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A disappointing NVIDIA report could extend the semiconductor drawdown.",
"Iran-conflict de-escalation or continued inventory accumulation could reverse oil's risk premium.",
"A dovish September FOMC shift could weaken the dollar and support SPY.",
"Stronger-than-expected growth could keep long yields elevated and intensify high-beta valuation pressure."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 32.15% before the latest 7.13% active pullback.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.743 despite the sector's high volatility.",
"NVIDIA results are scheduled for August 26, inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 39,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 64.89% versus a latest-window active pullback of 7.21%.",
"Brent settled at $92.67 amid uncertainty about Persian Gulf tanker flows and the Iran conflict.",
"Rising U.S. petroleum stocks temper the bullish supply-risk case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 20.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 38,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Its 0.787 quality score was the highest in the slate after a 6.04% active pullback.",
"Many Fed participants said further tightening could be appropriate if inflation did not decline.",
"Its SPY correlation was -0.31 and 63-session volatility was only 5.13%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 36,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 29.99% and 21-session active return remained positive at 4.40%.",
"The latest five-session return was -4.77%, creating a short pullback within relative strength.",
"Volatility was elevated at 33.18%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Utilities had the slate's deepest active pullback at -11.13% and a 1.000 pullback rank.",
"SPY correlation and beta were low at 0.13 and 0.15.",
"Rising long-term Treasury yields and hawkish Fed guidance remain material headwinds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 3.20% and quality evidence score was 0.701.",
"Reported volume was unusually weak with a -1.08 z-score.",
"Payroll contraction and restrictive rates challenge domestically sensitive smaller companies."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark, so its excess return relative to itself is zero.",
"The 21-session return was 3.73% despite a -1.37% latest five-session return.",
"Preliminary U.S. business activity reached a 52-month high while labor and retail data weakened."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was unusually high at 1.57.",
"Prior active return was weak at -13.16%.",
"Its low SPY beta limits equity-sensitive upside but offers diversification."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was -14.89% and latest-window active return was -6.80%.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.431.",
"The five-session gain of 3.33% lacks supporting medium-horizon strength."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Latest-window active return was 16.75%, leaving substantial reversal risk.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.019 and prior active return was -39.69%.",
"Volatility was 44.39% with a 27.73% drawdown."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The five-session return was 28.63% and active return was 25.54%, creating sharp reversal risk.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.096 and prior active return was -12.88%.",
"Volatility was 59.55% and SPY beta was 2.65."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was -19.22% and latest-window active return was -10.41%.",
"The 63-session maximum drawdown was 35.51% with 44.62% volatility.",
"Restrictive rates and hawkish Fed guidance provide no clear in-window reversal support."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"OIL": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"US_DOLLAR": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"US_DOLLAR"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Wide cross-asset performance gaps, weakening labor and spending data, hawkish rate risk, and near-term geopolitical and earnings catalysts favor selective reversals rather than broad continuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"US_DOLLAR"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Semiconductors combine a deep relative pullback with an immediate earnings catalyst, oil retains geopolitical supply support after relative weakness, and the dollar offers a lower-volatility reversal backed by hawkish policy risk. Other slate candidates either lack an in-window catalyst or show weak underlying trends.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Wide cross-asset performance gaps, weakening labor and spending data, hawkish rate risk, and near-term geopolitical and earnings catalysts favor selective reversals rather than broad continuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16189,
"latency_seconds": 63.15676588399219,
"output_tokens": 4215,
"reasoning_tokens": 2208,
"total_tokens": 20404
}
}xai-grok-4-3
OIL, US_DOLLAR and SMALL_CAP show overreaction labels with p_beat_spy above 55% and supportive quality or volume signals for the one-month window.
Mixed signals with recent equity weakness offset by commodity strength and defensive pullbacks; one-month window favors selective reversals over broad continuation.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC meeting September 15-16",
"NVIDIA earnings August 26",
"Persian Gulf tanker uncertainty"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-3.48% recent return vs SPY",
"quality score 0.659",
"low beta 0.15"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-5.10% recent return",
"high vol 44.62%",
"quality score 0.338"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"6.35% recent return",
"quality score 0.752",
"Brent at $92.67"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 71,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.66% recent return",
"quality score 0.743",
"prior active 32.15%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"3.33% recent return",
"quality score 0.431",
"volume z -0.66"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.77% recent return",
"prior active 29.99%",
"quality score 0.537"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 34,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"28.63% recent return",
"quality score 0.096",
"52w-high distance -50.15%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"7.25% recent return",
"prior active -39.69%",
"volume z -0.65"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.75% recent return",
"quality score 0.787",
"low vol 5.13%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 64,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.21% recent return",
"volume z 1.57",
"quality score 0.440"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.68% recent return",
"quality score 0.701",
"volume z -1.08"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.37% recent return",
"benchmark status",
"vol 13.72%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"OIL": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 30,
"US_DOLLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_CAP"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed signals with recent equity weakness offset by commodity strength and defensive pullbacks; one-month window favors selective reversals over broad continuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "OIL, US_DOLLAR and SMALL_CAP show overreaction labels with p_beat_spy above 55% and supportive quality or volume signals for the one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed signals with recent equity weakness offset by commodity strength and defensive pullbacks; one-month window favors selective reversals over broad continuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16410,
"latency_seconds": 11.306639856979018,
"output_tokens": 1782,
"reasoning_tokens": 740,
"total_tokens": 18932
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Rank quality pullback/shock-reversal names with independent support (semis into NVDA, beaten-up low-beta utilities, geopolitically bid oil) above momentum crypto/silver and structurally weak solar; most edges are modest so benchmark remains competitive for unused slots under the deterministic rule.
SPY soft on the week amid sticky inflation, soft payrolls, and elevated long rates; oil/geopolitics and crypto/precious-metal spikes create cross-asset dispersion while quality pullbacks in semis and utilities offer selective mean-reversion setups into the one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.59,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"FOMC Sept 15-16 and sticky 3.4% CPI / hawkish minutes could re-price duration and growth equities",
"NVIDIA print and semis beta could extend the SMH drawdown instead of reversing",
"Iran/Persian Gulf oil shock may reverse quickly if tanker fears fade, given USO vol >50%",
"Crypto and silver short-term spikes can mean-revert violently inside one month"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.743 with prior active rank 0.985 and recent pullback rank 0.955",
"Recent return -4.66% and active -7.13% after strong prior +32.15% active",
"NVIDIA earnings scheduled Aug 26 inside the scoring window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -11.13% with quality score 0.659 and top recent pullback rank 1.000",
"Low SPY beta 0.15 and horizon vol 15.98% vs equity risk assets",
"Rates elevated but sector already priced a deep relative drawdown of -7.60%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.752 with prior active rank 1.000 after +64.89% prior active",
"Brent $92.67 with AP-noted Persian Gulf/Iran flow uncertainty",
"Recent +6.35% bounce after active -7.21% medium window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.08 dislocation with quality score 0.701",
"Only -1.68% from 52w high and shallow max drawdown -3.95%",
"Russell 2000 weekly -1.6% alongside soft but not collapsing domestic data"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +29.99% and medium-strength lane with quality 0.537",
"Recent -4.77% pullback leaves distance to high only -7.19%",
"Lower beta to SPY (1.12) than broad semis"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +3.33% after active -6.80% and deep prior underperformance -14.89%",
"Quality pullback rank 0.940 though overall quality only 0.431",
"Commodity-linked EM beta with moderate vol 21.53%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality score 0.787 with recent pullback rank 0.910",
"Low vol 5.13% and negative SPY corr -0.31",
"UUP -0.75% recent after -6.04% active medium window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with weekly -1.4% and -1.37% 5-session return",
"Horizon vol 13.72% and max drawdown -4.49%",
"Near 52w high at -1.56% distance"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.57 dislocation with low beta 0.12",
"Recent flat +0.21% after prior active -13.16%",
"Quality score 0.440 middling vs dollar"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Short-window +7.25% and active +16.75% with gold also spiking in briefing",
"Very low quality score 0.019 and -40.61% from 52w high",
"High vol 44.39% and deep drawdown -27.73%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -19.22% and quality only 0.338 with shallow-drawdown rank 0.000",
"Horizon max drawdown -35.51% and -33.29% from 52w high",
"Recent -5.10% extends weak trend rather than clean overreaction"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Extreme short continuation +28.63% and active +25.54%",
"Quality score 0.096 with -50.15% from 52w high",
"Vol 59.55% and beta 2.65 imply wide one-month tails"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"OIL": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY soft on the week amid sticky inflation, soft payrolls, and elevated long rates; oil/geopolitics and crypto/precious-metal spikes create cross-asset dispersion while quality pullbacks in semis and utilities offer selective mean-reversion setups into the one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Rank quality pullback/shock-reversal names with independent support (semis into NVDA, beaten-up low-beta utilities, geopolitically bid oil) above momentum crypto/silver and structurally weak solar; most edges are modest so benchmark remains competitive for unused slots under the deterministic rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY soft on the week amid sticky inflation, soft payrolls, and elevated long rates; oil/geopolitics and crypto/precious-metal spikes create cross-asset dispersion while quality pullbacks in semis and utilities offer selective mean-reversion setups into the one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17441,
"latency_seconds": 40.93660555401584,
"output_tokens": 2717,
"reasoning_tokens": 19,
"total_tokens": 20177
}
}xai-grok-4-6
One-month edge versus SPY is thin: semis have an in-window NVIDIA print after a quality pullback, oil has a live Gulf supply headline, and utilities are the cleanest rate-sensitive oversold name, but none clear a high-confidence beat versus a benchmark still near highs with contained VIX futures.
SPY is only 1.56% off the 52-week high after a -1.37% 5-session dip while equal-weight led slightly; VIX futures stay contained, activity surveys are firm, but the September FOMC, sticky 3.4% CPI, and Gulf oil risk keep one-month leadership mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September 15–16 FOMC and still-elevated 10- and 30-year yields can reverse rate-sensitive and growth-beta names together.",
"NVIDIA results on August 26 can dominate semiconductor and broad-tech residuals in either direction.",
"Persian Gulf tanker-flow and Iran-conflict headlines can spike oil vol while pressuring risk assets.",
"July payrolls were negative with large downward revisions, so a growth scare into September data could lift defensives and cash over cyclicals."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +32.15% with quality evidence score 0.743 and a -4.66% 5-session pullback.",
"NVIDIA reports fiscal 2027 Q2 on August 26 inside the scoring window.",
"Horizon vol 53.57% and beta 2.36 imply wide excess-return tails versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled at $92.67 on August 21 amid reported Persian Gulf tanker-flow uncertainty and the Iran conflict.",
"Prior active return +64.89% and quality evidence score 0.752; 5-session return +6.35%.",
"SPY correlation -0.34 and beta -1.27 give a distinct one-month path versus the benchmark."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -11.13% is the slate's deepest quality-ranked pullback (recent pullback rank 1.000).",
"Quality evidence score 0.659 with low SPY beta 0.15.",
"Ten-year Treasury yield 4.74% on August 21 keeps rate sensitivity as the main one-month driver."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score -1.08 is a dislocation without a supplied fundamental catalyst.",
"Quality evidence score 0.701 and only -1.68% from the 52-week high.",
"Russell 2000 rose 0.9% on August 21 but was -1.6% on the week, in line with SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return +29.99% and medium-strength lane with quality score 0.537.",
"5-session return -4.77% against still-positive 21-session active return +4.40%.",
"Horizon vol 33.18% and 52-week distance -7.19%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score 0.787 with 5.13% horizon vol.",
"5-session return -0.75% and 21-session active return -6.04%.",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.31 is defensive but not a one-month outperform setup versus a still-resilient equity benchmark."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return +3.33% after 21-session active -6.80% and prior active -14.89%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.431 and 52-week distance -15.18%.",
"No Brazil-specific catalyst is supplied inside the August 24–September 24 window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return -1.37% with 21-session return +3.73% and 52-week distance -1.56%.",
"Preliminary S&P Global U.S. business activity at a 52-month high on August 21.",
"Next FOMC is September 15–16 inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 1.57 is the slate's only elevated volume dislocation.",
"5-session return +0.21% with prior active -13.16%.",
"Low 7.91% vol limits the chance of a large one-month excess versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return +7.25% and 21-session active +16.75% after prior active -39.69%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.019 and 52-week distance -40.61%.",
"Gold briefly above $4,690 after below $4,440 one week earlier, a related metals backdrop."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"5-session return +28.63% and 21-session active +25.54% with quality score 0.096.",
"52-week distance -50.15% and horizon vol 59.55%.",
"Bitcoin above $77,000 after below $63,000 one week earlier is a related crypto bounce, not independent support for beating SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -19.22%, 63-session max drawdown -35.51%, and 52-week distance -33.29%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.338 with low-volatility rank 0.060 and shallow-drawdown rank 0.000.",
"Horizon vol 44.62% and beta 1.90 without an in-window solar catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"SILVER",
"US_DOLLAR",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is only 1.56% off the 52-week high after a -1.37% 5-session dip while equal-weight led slightly; VIX futures stay contained, activity surveys are firm, but the September FOMC, sticky 3.4% CPI, and Gulf oil risk keep one-month leadership mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "One-month edge versus SPY is thin: semis have an in-window NVIDIA print after a quality pullback, oil has a live Gulf supply headline, and utilities are the cleanest rate-sensitive oversold name, but none clear a high-confidence beat versus a benchmark still near highs with contained VIX futures.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is only 1.56% off the 52-week high after a -1.37% 5-session dip while equal-weight led slightly; VIX futures stay contained, activity surveys are firm, but the September FOMC, sticky 3.4% CPI, and Gulf oil risk keep one-month leadership mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal tape.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-23-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17583,
"latency_seconds": 45.39075945998775,
"output_tokens": 2483,
"reasoning_tokens": 643,
"total_tokens": 20709
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Crude Oil (USO)35%Energy Sector (XLE)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Crude Oil (USO)35%US Dollar (UUP)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%US Dollar (UUP)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Crude Oil (USO)30% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 6d8fe72addba...7c34f04f |
| manifest.yaml | 2ec5aa41466e...506152f2 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 7cf6ae5df6d7...b84ecfdd |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | f37332bbd447...6a277418 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | bac038c2fc36...55335c35 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 302456feeec1...6ed99701 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | a33a0e1f0d8c...904a6541 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 554818691a7f...36bb515f |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |