Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 50.0 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Gemini 3.1 Pro is lowest at 13.8.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 78.9 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward growth and technology, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-21 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260820-monthly
34,057 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-20
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-20T04:11:42Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-20T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-20
- Exit date: 2026-09-21
- Entry rule: Use the Thursday, August 20, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the Monday, September 21, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing — August 20, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-08-20T04:11:42Z**
Decision date: **2026-08-20**
Evaluation windows: **one week and one month**
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market snapshot
- At the August 19 close, the S&P 500 was 7,707.98, up 0.2% on the day, down 1.0% week to date, and up 12.6% year to date.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 53,463.05, up 0.2% on the day, down 0.5% week to date, and up 11.2% year to date.
- The Nasdaq Composite was 26,331.09, up 0.2% on the day, down 1.5% week to date, and up 13.3% year to date.
- The Russell 2000 was 3,032.94, up 0.5% on the day, down 1.2% week to date, and up 22.2% year to date.
- These four index observations are a cross-cap snapshot, not exchange advance/decline counts.
- Cboe's displayed VIX close for August 18 was 15.67, up 0.48 points from 15.19. This observation is one session behind the August 19 equity close.
## Rates and central banks
- August 19 U.S. Treasury par yields were 3.77% at 1 month, 3.86% at 3 months, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.35% at 5 years, 4.65% at 10 years, and 5.19% at 30 years.
- On August 18, the 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury par yields were 4.19%, 4.37%, 4.71%, and 5.28%.
- The Treasury Department announced plans at least to double longer-term Treasury purchases over September 9–November 4 for liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors.
- The July 29 FOMC decision kept the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The vote was 9–3, with three participants preferring a 25-basis-point increase.
- Minutes released August 19 recorded that most participants expected inflation to step down over time and many saw a risk that inflation could remain more persistent. The minutes recorded upside-skewed inflation risks, solid activity, stable labor conditions, and investment strength concentrated in artificial-intelligence-related spending. The minutes describe the July meeting.
- The ECB kept the deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23.
## U.S. inflation, activity, and labor
- July CPI was +0.1% month over month and +3.4% year over year. Core CPI was +0.2% month over month and +2.5% year over year. Energy was -1.5% month over month and +14.7% year over year; food was +0.1% month over month and +3.0% year over year. BLS identifies missing October and November 2025 historical values associated with the 2025 appropriations lapse.
- July PPI final demand was unchanged month over month and +4.7% year over year. Final demand less food, energy, and trade services was +0.4% month over month and +4.7% year over year. Goods were -0.7%, services +0.2%, and construction +2.2% month over month. Initial PPI values can be revised.
- June personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2% month over month. Current-dollar PCE rose 0.3% and real PCE rose 0.4%. The headline PCE price index was -0.1% month over month and +3.7% year over year; core was +0.1% and +3.3%. The saving rate was 2.7%.
- The advance estimate put Q2 real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized after 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.7%; headline and core PCE price indexes rose 5.1% and 3.4%. The advance estimate is subject to revision.
- July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, average hourly earnings were up 3.2% year over year, May and June revisions totaled -103,000, and labor-force participation was 61.4%. Survey estimates can be revised.
- June JOLTS reported 7.4 million openings, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. The major rates were reported as little changed.
## Energy and international data
- EIA data released August 19 for the week ending August 14 put commercial crude inventories at 428.815 million barrels, up 4.405 million week over week and 1.9% year over year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 293.426 million barrels, down 5.268 million on the week.
- Motor gasoline inventories were 209.378 million barrels, up 0.688 million week over week and down 6.3% year over year. Distillate inventories were 105.619 million barrels, down 1.530 million week over week and 9.0% year over year. Domestic crude production was 13.830 million barrels per day versus 13.805 million the prior week.
- Brent crude settled at $90.87 per barrel on August 17 after a 2.7% daily increase. The reported prior-month range was approximately $72–$102. This is an August 17 observation.
- Euro-area Q2 GDP was estimated at +0.4% quarter over quarter and +1.0% year over year; EU GDP was +0.5% and +1.2%. The estimate is preliminary and incomplete.
- Euro-area July flash inflation was 2.9% year over year after 2.8% in June; energy was +10.0% and services +3.3%. These are flash estimates.
- China's industrial value added rose 5.3% year over year in January–July and 4.5% in July. The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.2 and the services production index was 49.3.
- China's January–July retail sales of goods and services rose 2.6%. Consumer-goods retail sales rose 1.2% in January–July and 0.6% in July. Fixed-asset investment fell 6.7% in January–July; real-estate development investment fell 19.2% and manufacturing investment fell 1.7%.
- China's January–July goods trade rose 17.3% in yuan terms, with exports up 14.0% and imports up 22.0%; July trade rose 19.2%. The July surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2%.
- China's July CPI was -0.1% month over month and +0.5% year over year; core CPI was +0.3% month over month and +0.9% year over year.
- In August 19 Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3.2% and South Korea's Kospi fell 5.8%.
## Scheduled calendar through the weekly exit
- August 25: U.S. July new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 26: U.S. Q2 GDP second estimate, preliminary corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, July durable-goods orders, and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- August 26: NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT and conference call at 2:00 p.m. PT.
- August 27: U.S. advance economic indicators at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- August 27–29: Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; published theme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
- The August 27 items occur on the scheduled weekly exit date.
## Additional scheduled calendar through the monthly exit
- September 1: U.S. July JOLTS and July construction spending.
- September 2: U.S. July manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders.
- September 3: U.S. July international trade.
- September 4: U.S. August employment situation.
- September 9–10: ECB monetary-policy meeting.
- September 10: U.S. August PPI.
- September 11: U.S. August CPI.
- September 15–16: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.
- September 16: U.S. August import and export prices.
- September 17–18: Bank of Japan monetary-policy meeting.
Scheduled dates and times can change. Preliminary, flash, advance, survey, and weekly estimates can be revised. The separate mechanical appendix supplies the complete option universe in fixed option order with price, risk, benchmark-relative, and quality-evidence fields.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-20-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-20'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-20T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-20T04:12:51.226088+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the Thursday, August 20, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the Monday, September 21, 2026 adjusted close supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-20'
exit_date: '2026-09-21'
created_at: '2026-08-20T04:12:51.226088+00:00'
notes: Fresh August 20, 2026 monthly Portfolio V3.0 production round. Research cutoff 2026-08-20T04:11:42Z. Entry and exit use official close prices. The frozen seven-model successor roster excludes retired Claude Opus 4.8.# CapitalBench Fixed Market Briefing — August 20, 2026
Research cutoff: **2026-08-20T04:11:42Z**
Decision date: **2026-08-20**
Evaluation windows: **one week and one month**
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market snapshot
- At the August 19 close, the S&P 500 was 7,707.98, up 0.2% on the day, down 1.0% week to date, and up 12.6% year to date.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average was 53,463.05, up 0.2% on the day, down 0.5% week to date, and up 11.2% year to date.
- The Nasdaq Composite was 26,331.09, up 0.2% on the day, down 1.5% week to date, and up 13.3% year to date.
- The Russell 2000 was 3,032.94, up 0.5% on the day, down 1.2% week to date, and up 22.2% year to date.
- These four index observations are a cross-cap snapshot, not exchange advance/decline counts.
- Cboe's displayed VIX close for August 18 was 15.67, up 0.48 points from 15.19. This observation is one session behind the August 19 equity close.
## Rates and central banks
- August 19 U.S. Treasury par yields were 3.77% at 1 month, 3.86% at 3 months, 4.19% at 2 years, 4.35% at 5 years, 4.65% at 10 years, and 5.19% at 30 years.
- On August 18, the 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year Treasury par yields were 4.19%, 4.37%, 4.71%, and 5.28%.
- The Treasury Department announced plans at least to double longer-term Treasury purchases over September 9–November 4 for liquidity support in longer-dated nominal sectors.
- The July 29 FOMC decision kept the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. The vote was 9–3, with three participants preferring a 25-basis-point increase.
- Minutes released August 19 recorded that most participants expected inflation to step down over time and many saw a risk that inflation could remain more persistent. The minutes recorded upside-skewed inflation risks, solid activity, stable labor conditions, and investment strength concentrated in artificial-intelligence-related spending. The minutes describe the July meeting.
- The ECB kept the deposit, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65% on July 23.
## U.S. inflation, activity, and labor
- July CPI was +0.1% month over month and +3.4% year over year. Core CPI was +0.2% month over month and +2.5% year over year. Energy was -1.5% month over month and +14.7% year over year; food was +0.1% month over month and +3.0% year over year. BLS identifies missing October and November 2025 historical values associated with the 2025 appropriations lapse.
- July PPI final demand was unchanged month over month and +4.7% year over year. Final demand less food, energy, and trade services was +0.4% month over month and +4.7% year over year. Goods were -0.7%, services +0.2%, and construction +2.2% month over month. Initial PPI values can be revised.
- June personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2% month over month. Current-dollar PCE rose 0.3% and real PCE rose 0.4%. The headline PCE price index was -0.1% month over month and +3.7% year over year; core was +0.1% and +3.3%. The saving rate was 2.7%.
- The advance estimate put Q2 real GDP growth at 1.5% annualized after 2.1% in Q1. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose 3.9%. The gross domestic purchases price index rose 5.7%; headline and core PCE price indexes rose 5.1% and 3.4%. The advance estimate is subject to revision.
- July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, average hourly earnings were up 3.2% year over year, May and June revisions totaled -103,000, and labor-force participation was 61.4%. Survey estimates can be revised.
- June JOLTS reported 7.4 million openings, 5.3 million hires, 5.4 million separations, 3.2 million quits, and 1.8 million layoffs and discharges. The major rates were reported as little changed.
## Energy and international data
- EIA data released August 19 for the week ending August 14 put commercial crude inventories at 428.815 million barrels, up 4.405 million week over week and 1.9% year over year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve was 293.426 million barrels, down 5.268 million on the week.
- Motor gasoline inventories were 209.378 million barrels, up 0.688 million week over week and down 6.3% year over year. Distillate inventories were 105.619 million barrels, down 1.530 million week over week and 9.0% year over year. Domestic crude production was 13.830 million barrels per day versus 13.805 million the prior week.
- Brent crude settled at $90.87 per barrel on August 17 after a 2.7% daily increase. The reported prior-month range was approximately $72–$102. This is an August 17 observation.
- Euro-area Q2 GDP was estimated at +0.4% quarter over quarter and +1.0% year over year; EU GDP was +0.5% and +1.2%. The estimate is preliminary and incomplete.
- Euro-area July flash inflation was 2.9% year over year after 2.8% in June; energy was +10.0% and services +3.3%. These are flash estimates.
- China's industrial value added rose 5.3% year over year in January–July and 4.5% in July. The July manufacturing purchasing managers' index was 49.2 and the services production index was 49.3.
- China's January–July retail sales of goods and services rose 2.6%. Consumer-goods retail sales rose 1.2% in January–July and 0.6% in July. Fixed-asset investment fell 6.7% in January–July; real-estate development investment fell 19.2% and manufacturing investment fell 1.7%.
- China's January–July goods trade rose 17.3% in yuan terms, with exports up 14.0% and imports up 22.0%; July trade rose 19.2%. The July surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2%.
- China's July CPI was -0.1% month over month and +0.5% year over year; core CPI was +0.3% month over month and +0.9% year over year.
- In August 19 Asian trading, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 3.2% and South Korea's Kospi fell 5.8%.
## Scheduled calendar through the weekly exit
- August 25: U.S. July new-home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET.
- August 26: U.S. Q2 GDP second estimate, preliminary corporate profits, July personal income and outlays, July durable-goods orders, and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report.
- August 26: NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results at approximately 1:20 p.m. PT and conference call at 2:00 p.m. PT.
- August 27: U.S. advance economic indicators at 8:30 a.m. ET.
- August 27–29: Kansas City Fed Jackson Hole Economic Symposium; published theme: “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”
- The August 27 items occur on the scheduled weekly exit date.
## Additional scheduled calendar through the monthly exit
- September 1: U.S. July JOLTS and July construction spending.
- September 2: U.S. July manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders.
- September 3: U.S. July international trade.
- September 4: U.S. August employment situation.
- September 9–10: ECB monetary-policy meeting.
- September 10: U.S. August PPI.
- September 11: U.S. August CPI.
- September 15–16: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting.
- September 16: U.S. August import and export prices.
- September 17–18: Bank of Japan monetary-policy meeting.
Scheduled dates and times can change. Preliminary, flash, advance, survey, and weekly estimates can be revised. The separate mechanical appendix supplies the complete option universe in fixed option order with price, risk, benchmark-relative, and quality-evidence fields.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
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"manifest.yaml": "0aa5e66a1dbe81d6c5bc127084667478c59a10e167dcb27205b6a5cd497c1ea7",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "5f0860998c161b302198e92804f6d7b346a263985ca648aa33e8af2617cf4467",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "0c0d627677dfe8409497e0b7f73647793d38b8d1ec837354512c376b0ede4b2d",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "beeff64b7ed352039fd93d703d78809ee698f7c8a18b557e27c535f95bcf3b53",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "fbc62aa91a3fd8c02ade1e372b0325cd9c819f38de7cb89e2a1c8f87320e46bd",
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"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "a663f5cde0e6bc4b100ecd4034100b3420eee6596b71d0d186c698496796f8ae",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
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"submission_schema.json": "fb15e640b97fa100237112e5d6bd8548696c72f75ce22b2d3ae2bf212e10166d"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-20-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Only semiconductors combine a strong prior relative trend, the highest slate quality score, and a concrete in-window catalyst (NVIDIA earnings Aug 26), justifying an overreaction label at 58% beat probability. All other slate names lack independent in-window support, so the rest of the portfolio defaults to SPY.
SPY is near highs with modest weekly pullback; breadth is broadening (RSP outpacing SPY). The dominant setup is a quality pullback in strong prior-trend tech (semis) into the NVIDIA earnings catalyst on Aug 26, while shock-reversal names like solar and silver show fundamental or trendless weakness. Rate cuts are constrained by sticky inflation, capping bond upside.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA earnings disappointment could extend the semiconductor drawdown sharply given 2.4 beta",
"Sticky inflation prints (Sep 10-11 PPI/CPI) or a hawkish Sep 15-16 FOMC could hit high-beta tech",
"Oil above $90 and rising long yields could pressure equity multiples broadly",
"BoJ tightening on Sep 17-18 could trigger carry-trade unwind volatility"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +31.97% with recent -6.74% active pullback, highest quality score 0.752",
"NVIDIA earnings Aug 26 within window; FOMC minutes cite AI investment strength",
"Positive volume z-score 0.33 on pullback"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
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"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -14.71% and recent -6.22% active, but weak dollar (UUP -2.11% 21s) and firm commodities supportive",
"-17% from 52w high, quality score only 0.44"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +52.67%, Brent $90.87 after 2.7% daily gain",
"Crude inventories rose 4.4M barrels; very high 53% vol and -32% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.751 with prior active +4.81% and mild -2.14% recent pullback",
"Russell 2000 up 22.2% YTD; broadening breadth supportive but no specific catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active +28.13% but recent -4.83% week and no in-window catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; up 12.6% YTD, -1.13% from 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.78% after prior -9.80%; persistent laggard with 30y yield at 5.19% pressuring rate-sensitives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.45% but lowest-tier quality score 0.043 and prior active -22.73%; gold +10.4% over 21s supportive but trend unproven"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +10.28% but -43% from 52w high, prior active -33.88%, quality score 0.020"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.54 dislocation; BoJ meeting Sep 17-18 within window; prior active -15.48%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Low 3.06% vol; sticky inflation (core CPI +2.5% y/y, PPI +4.7%) limits duration rally"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP -2.11% over 21s; low 5.14% vol means limited upside vs equity benchmark even on rebound"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"p_top3_pct": 2,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -20.68% and recent -8.86% active; -31.7% from 52w high with -35.5% drawdown and no supportive catalyst supplied"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SP500": 65
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 32,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is near highs with modest weekly pullback; breadth is broadening (RSP outpacing SPY). The dominant setup is a quality pullback in strong prior-trend tech (semis) into the NVIDIA earnings catalyst on Aug 26, while shock-reversal names like solar and silver show fundamental or trendless weakness. Rate cuts are constrained by sticky inflation, capping bond upside.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 65,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only semiconductors combine a strong prior relative trend, the highest slate quality score, and a concrete in-window catalyst (NVIDIA earnings Aug 26), justifying an overreaction label at 58% beat probability. All other slate names lack independent in-window support, so the rest of the portfolio defaults to SPY.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near highs with modest weekly pullback; breadth is broadening (RSP outpacing SPY). The dominant setup is a quality pullback in strong prior-trend tech (semis) into the NVIDIA earnings catalyst on Aug 26, while shock-reversal names like solar and silver show fundamental or trendless weakness. Rate cuts are constrained by sticky inflation, capping bond upside.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28676,
"latency_seconds": 41.97307281701069,
"output_tokens": 3375,
"total_tokens": 32051
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only two candidates clear the overreaction plus 55% bar: semiconductors, where a sharp 5-session drawdown sits atop the strongest prior relative trend in the universe with NVIDIA earnings inside the window, and the US dollar, a low-volatility, negatively correlated reversal against a hawkish-leaning Fed backdrop. Utilities ranks third on defensive rate relief but is labeled no_edge, so the remaining slot defaults to SPY. Momentum-chasing names like silver and metals/mining show extreme recent active gains without in-window fundamental support and are ranked below the benchmark region.
Index level is near highs with modest week-to-date softness, VIX ~15.7, but cross-sectional dispersion is very high: semis, Korea and Japan sold off sharply while healthcare, biotech, energy, gold/silver and crypto surged. Rates are mildly easing at the long end with Treasury announcing larger longer-dated purchases; Fed remains on hold with hawkish dissents and hot 3.4% CPI / 4.7% PPI. NVIDIA earnings (Aug 26), Jackson Hole, Sept CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC all fall inside the window, making AI-complex names the highest-variance bet. I treat the semiconductor drawdown as an overreaction within an intact prior uptrend (prior active +32%), and see modest reversal value in the dollar and utilities. Most other slate names lack independent support.
{
"confidence": 0.565,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A weak NVIDIA print or AI capex guidance cut on Aug 26 would extend the semiconductor drawdown sharply given 54% volatility and 2.38 beta.",
"Dovish Jackson Hole or soft Sept 4 payrolls could push the dollar lower and invalidate the UUP reversal.",
"Persistent 3.4% CPI / 4.7% PPI could force a hawkish Sept 16 FOMC, hitting both long-duration equities and utilities.",
"High cross-sectional dispersion means concentrated 35% sleeves carry large tracking error versus SPY over one month."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.74% against prior active +31.97%, top quality score 0.752",
"NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results Aug 26 inside window",
"FOMC minutes cite investment strength concentrated in AI-related spending"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP -1.13% in 5s and -4.88% recent active with low 5.1% vol",
"Hawkish FOMC dissents and 3.4% CPI argue against further easing-driven dollar decline",
"High quality score 0.776, negative SPY correlation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.78% with 10y yield falling to 4.65% from 4.71%",
"-6.54% from 52w high, low beta 0.145"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +4.81%, only -0.80% from 52w high",
"Quality score 0.751 but Sept FOMC on hold limits small-cap catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.83% in 5s but recent active still +2.70% and prior active +28.13%",
"Only -6.52% from 52w high, pullback rank low at 0.209"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Crude inventories +4.405 million barrels week over week, production 13.83 mb/d",
"Brent already $90.87 after prior +52.67% active run",
"53% vol with negative roll and -32% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +12.45% after prior -22.73%, lowest quality score 0.043",
"41.5% vol, -26.5% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active +10.28% with gold +7.66% active, real-rate tailwind",
"-43.17% from 52w high and 44% vol, quality score 0.020"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.26 with 3.06% vol",
"Long-end yields still elevated at 5.19% 30y"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.54, BoJ meeting Sept 17-18 inside window",
"Prior active -15.48% trend, Nikkei -3.2% on Aug 19"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -6.22% on top of prior -14.71%",
"-17.12% from 52w high; persistent underperformance rather than single shock"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.13% from 52w high, 13.7% vol"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -8.86% after prior -20.68%, -31.73% from 52w high",
"45.6% vol and -35.5% drawdown with no supplied policy catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SP500": 30,
"US_DOLLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"US_DOLLAR"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Index level is near highs with modest week-to-date softness, VIX ~15.7, but cross-sectional dispersion is very high: semis, Korea and Japan sold off sharply while healthcare, biotech, energy, gold/silver and crypto surged. Rates are mildly easing at the long end with Treasury announcing larger longer-dated purchases; Fed remains on hold with hawkish dissents and hot 3.4% CPI / 4.7% PPI. NVIDIA earnings (Aug 26), Jackson Hole, Sept CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC all fall inside the window, making AI-complex names the highest-variance bet. I treat the semiconductor drawdown as an overreaction within an intact prior uptrend (prior active +32%), and see modest reversal value in the dollar and utilities. Most other slate names lack independent support.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only two candidates clear the overreaction plus 55% bar: semiconductors, where a sharp 5-session drawdown sits atop the strongest prior relative trend in the universe with NVIDIA earnings inside the window, and the US dollar, a low-volatility, negatively correlated reversal against a hawkish-leaning Fed backdrop. Utilities ranks third on defensive rate relief but is labeled no_edge, so the remaining slot defaults to SPY. Momentum-chasing names like silver and metals/mining show extreme recent active gains without in-window fundamental support and are ranked below the benchmark region.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Index level is near highs with modest week-to-date softness, VIX ~15.7, but cross-sectional dispersion is very high: semis, Korea and Japan sold off sharply while healthcare, biotech, energy, gold/silver and crypto surged. Rates are mildly easing at the long end with Treasury announcing larger longer-dated purchases; Fed remains on hold with hawkish dissents and hot 3.4% CPI / 4.7% PPI. NVIDIA earnings (Aug 26), Jackson Hole, Sept CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC all fall inside the window, making AI-complex names the highest-variance bet. I treat the semiconductor drawdown as an overreaction within an intact prior uptrend (prior active +32%), and see modest reversal value in the dollar and utilities. Most other slate names lack independent support.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28676,
"latency_seconds": 43.148791028012056,
"output_tokens": 3469,
"total_tokens": 32145
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks (SEMICONDUCTORS, SMALL_VALUE) and defensive sectors (UTILITIES) to navigate a mixed market environment with sticky inflation and steady rates.
The market is showing mixed signals with recent volatility and a slight pullback in major indices, while inflation data remains somewhat sticky and the Fed maintains its current rate stance.
{
"confidence": 0.58,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation remains persistent, leading to a more hawkish Fed stance.",
"A broader market downturn impacts high-beta sectors like semiconductors."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.09% despite strong prior active return of 31.97%.",
"High quality score of 0.752."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 40,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High quality score of 0.751.",
"Recent return of -0.14% with positive prior active return."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.41% with a quality score of 0.599.",
"Defensive sector in a mixed market environment."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 2.84% and strong prior active return of 52.67%.",
"EIA data shows crude inventories up but SPR down."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -4.83% with a prior active return of 28.13%.",
"Quality score of 0.559."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.24% and recent active return of 12.45%.",
"Low quality score of 0.043."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.61% and recent active return of 10.28%.",
"Very low quality score of 0.020."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.13% and high quality score of 0.776.",
"Low volatility of 5.14%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -0.28% and low volatility of 3.06%.",
"High volume z-score of 1.26."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 0.87% and high volume z-score of 1.54.",
"Negative prior active return of -15.48%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of 1.18% but negative recent active return of -6.22%.",
"Quality score of 0.440."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -3.55% and large negative prior active return of -20.68%.",
"High volatility of 45.63%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark asset.",
"Recent return of -0.44%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"UTILITIES": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 30,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"UTILITIES"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent volatility and a slight pullback in major indices, while inflation data remains somewhat sticky and the Fed maintains its current rate stance.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality assets that have experienced recent pullbacks (SEMICONDUCTORS, SMALL_VALUE) and defensive sectors (UTILITIES) to navigate a mixed market environment with sticky inflation and steady rates.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is showing mixed signals with recent volatility and a slight pullback in major indices, while inflation data remains somewhat sticky and the Fed maintains its current rate stance.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 19891,
"latency_seconds": 19.59952316399722,
"output_tokens": 2860,
"total_tokens": 22751
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Semiconductors and cybersecurity offer the strongest supported pullback reversals, while real estate adds a lower-beta rate-sensitive reversal supported by falling long yields. Other slate reversals lack either a healthy prior trend or sufficient one-month upside confidence.
Broad participation and falling long yields support selective pullback reversals, but weak employment, persistent inflation risk, and major earnings and central-bank events make continuation unreliable and dispersion likely to remain high.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA results could disappoint and extend the high-beta technology selloff.",
"August inflation data or the September FOMC could push long yields higher, hurting both technology and real estate.",
"Weak payrolls could develop into broader growth and credit stress rather than a benign easing catalyst.",
"High cross-sectional volatility makes one-month reversal timing unusually uncertain."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 31.97% before the latest 6.74% active pullback.",
"Quality evidence score was 0.752 despite unusually high 54.10% volatility.",
"NVIDIA results are scheduled for August 26 and FOMC minutes cited strength in AI-related investment."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 28.13% and 21-session active return remained positive at 2.70%.",
"The latest five-session return was -4.83%, creating a pullback within the stronger medium trend.",
"Volatility and drawdown were materially lower than for semiconductors."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.713 with a 0.896 recent-pullback rank.",
"The 21-session active return was -3.72% despite a shallow 4.19% maximum drawdown.",
"The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields fell from August 18 to August 19."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 21,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was 0.751, supported by positive 4.81% prior active return.",
"Recent active return was -2.14% with only a 2.75% maximum drawdown.",
"The Russell 2000 was up 22.2% year to date, although labor weakness raises cyclical risk."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -4.78% and the pullback rank was 0.940.",
"Low 0.14 beta offers defense against weak employment data.",
"Prior active return was -9.80%, limiting confidence in reversal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 52.67% and the five-session return was 2.84%.",
"Brent settled at $90.87 after a 2.7% daily increase.",
"Commercial crude inventories rose 4.405 million barrels and volatility was 53.37%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY was only 1.13% below its 52-week high.",
"Equal-weight SPY outperformed cap-weighted SPY by 1.60 percentage points over 21 sessions.",
"VIX was 15.67, indicating no acute market-wide stress at the supplied observation."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score was the slate-high 0.776 and volatility was only 5.14%.",
"Recent active return was -4.88% and the dollar had negative SPY correlation.",
"Weak payrolls and lower long yields offset the reversal case."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was elevated at 1.54.",
"The Bank of Japan meeting falls on September 17–18 before the exit.",
"Prior active return was -15.48%, showing a weak established trend."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.6,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was elevated at 1.26 and volatility was only 3.06%.",
"Maximum drawdown was a shallow 2.15%.",
"Recent active return was -2.97%, reflecting limited upside versus equities absent a risk-off move."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -6.22%, but prior active return was also weak at -14.71%.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.440.",
"The fund remained 17.12% below its 52-week high."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 12.45%, but prior active return was -22.73%.",
"Quality evidence score was only 0.043.",
"China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2 and fixed-asset investment fell 6.7%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was 10.28% after prior active return of -33.88%.",
"Quality evidence score was the slate-low 0.020.",
"Volatility was 44.29% and the fund remained 43.17% below its 52-week high."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -8.86% following prior active return of -20.68%.",
"Maximum drawdown was 35.51% and volatility was 45.63%.",
"The 1.91 beta magnifies downside if risk appetite weakens."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"REAL_ESTATE": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"REAL_ESTATE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Broad participation and falling long yields support selective pullback reversals, but weak employment, persistent inflation risk, and major earnings and central-bank events make continuation unreliable and dispersion likely to remain high.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"REAL_ESTATE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Semiconductors and cybersecurity offer the strongest supported pullback reversals, while real estate adds a lower-beta rate-sensitive reversal supported by falling long yields. Other slate reversals lack either a healthy prior trend or sufficient one-month upside confidence.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Broad participation and falling long yields support selective pullback reversals, but weak employment, persistent inflation risk, and major earnings and central-bank events make continuation unreliable and dispersion likely to remain high.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16543,
"latency_seconds": 53.218075459997635,
"output_tokens": 3851,
"reasoning_tokens": 1551,
"total_tokens": 20394
}
}xai-grok-4-3
SP500 benchmark leads due to stable macro backdrop; SEMICONDUCTORS and OIL show reversal and continuation edges but limited overreaction confirmation across slate.
Mixed cross-asset signals with recent equity pullbacks in growth and commodities offset by stable macro data and limited dispersion; reversal candidates in high-vol sectors show overreaction potential within one-month window.
{
"confidence": 0.6,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Inflation persistence per FOMC minutes",
"Equity volatility from AI concentration",
"Commodity inventory surprises in energy"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-3.55% recent return",
"quality score 0.336",
"volume z -0.12"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.09% recent return",
"quality score 0.752",
"prior active 31.97%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11.6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.18% recent return",
"quality score 0.440",
"volume z -0.75"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-1.13% recent return",
"quality score 0.776",
"low vol 5.14%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.41% recent return",
"quality score 0.599",
"SPY corr 0.12"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 31,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"2.84% recent return",
"quality score 0.625",
"prior active 52.67%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 39,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-4.83% recent return",
"quality score 0.559",
"volume z -0.45"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7.3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 19,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.24% recent return",
"quality score 0.043",
"active return 12.45%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"1.61% recent return",
"quality score 0.020",
"52w-high distance -43.17%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.14% recent return",
"quality score 0.751",
"low vol 14.50%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"p_top3_pct": 35,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"0.87% recent return",
"quality score 0.366",
"volume z 1.54"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.28% recent return",
"quality score 0.620",
"volume z 1.26"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-0.44% recent return",
"benchmark",
"vol 13.72%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 100,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 61,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 59,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 33,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed cross-asset signals with recent equity pullbacks in growth and commodities offset by stable macro data and limited dispersion; reversal candidates in high-vol sectors show overreaction potential within one-month window.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SP500",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 61% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 4: overreaction with 59% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "SP500 benchmark leads due to stable macro backdrop; SEMICONDUCTORS and OIL show reversal and continuation edges but limited overreaction confirmation across slate.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed cross-asset signals with recent equity pullbacks in growth and commodities offset by stable macro data and limited dispersion; reversal candidates in high-vol sectors show overreaction potential within one-month window.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-5
Only a thin set of quality pullbacks (semis, small value, cyber) clear an overreaction-plus-55% bar after strong priors and recent underperformance; most other slate names are either fragile short continuations, low-edge defensives, or deteriorated trends, so SPY remains the default core for the one-month window.
SPY near flat on 5s after solid 21s; equal-weight outperforming; VIX mid-teens; sticky inflation and elevated long yields with Sept FOMC and Jackson Hole ahead; AI/semicap prior strength with recent pullbacks; commodity and factor dispersion mixed rather than one-way trend.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"NVIDIA and broader AI/semicap earnings disappointment could extend SMH drawdown given 2+ beta",
"Sticky inflation prints and hawkish Jackson Hole/FOMC path could pressure equities and rate-sensitive names",
"High-vol commodity and EM reversals (oil, silver, metals, Brazil) can gap against mean-reversion bets",
"Sudden USD rebound would hurt international and precious-metal adjacent exposures"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +31.97% with quality evidence 0.752 and deep recent active pullback -6.74%",
"Horizon vol 54% and -16% from 52w high after strong trend",
"NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results scheduled Aug 26 inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
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"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.751 with prior active +4.81% and mild recent active -2.14%",
"Low horizon max drawdown -2.75% and only -0.80% from 52w high",
"RSP outperforming SPY on 5s/21s supports broader/value tilt"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +28.13% against recent return -4.83% and active +2.70% on 21s",
"Distance to 52w high only -6.52% with quality 0.559",
"Medium-strength lane after sharp 5s underperformance vs SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence 0.776 with recent active pullback -4.88%",
"Low vol 5.14% and negative SPY corr -0.31",
"USD already -1.13% on 5s after prior softness"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +52.67% with quality 0.625 and recent +2.84%",
"Brent near $90 after inventory build and SPR draw notes",
"Very high vol 53% and large prior drawdown risk"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -4.78% with quality 0.599 and low SPY beta 0.14",
"Rate-sensitive defensive after yield curve still elevated",
"Mild positive 5s return +0.41% vs SPY -0.44%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s -6.22% after prior active -14.71% with quality 0.440",
"Recent +1.18% but still -17% from 52w high",
"EM/commodity beta without clear in-window catalyst"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with 5s -0.44% and 21s reference 0 active",
"VIX ~15.7 and YTD +12.6% context",
"Near 52w high (-1.13%)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.26 with low vol 3.06% and quality 0.620",
"Recent -0.28% and active 21s -2.97%",
"Duration/credit defensive vs equity beta"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.54 elevated with recent +0.87%",
"Prior active -15.48% and BoJ meeting mid-September",
"Low beta 0.12 to SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +12.45% short-continuation profile",
"Quality evidence very low 0.043 and vol 41.5%",
"Prior active -22.73% flags fragile trend"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21s +10.28% after severe prior active -33.88%",
"Quality score 0.020 and -43% from 52w high",
"High vol 44% continuation risk into month-end"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -13,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -20.68% and recent active -8.86% with quality 0.336",
"Max drawdown -35.5% and -31.7% from 52w high",
"High beta 1.91 without stabilizing catalyst in briefing"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"CYBERSECURITY"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY near flat on 5s after solid 21s; equal-weight outperforming; VIX mid-teens; sticky inflation and elevated long yields with Sept FOMC and Jackson Hole ahead; AI/semicap prior strength with recent pullbacks; commodity and factor dispersion mixed rather than one-way trend.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"CYBERSECURITY"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only a thin set of quality pullbacks (semis, small value, cyber) clear an overreaction-plus-55% bar after strong priors and recent underperformance; most other slate names are either fragile short continuations, low-edge defensives, or deteriorated trends, so SPY remains the default core for the one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY near flat on 5s after solid 21s; equal-weight outperforming; VIX mid-teens; sticky inflation and elevated long yields with Sept FOMC and Jackson Hole ahead; AI/semicap prior strength with recent pullbacks; commodity and factor dispersion mixed rather than one-way trend.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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}xai-grok-4-6
Cross-section is mixed and the scoring month is catalyst-heavy, so broad SPY remains the default. Highest-ranked names are lower-beta quality or defensive exposures rather than high-vol shock names; none combine a genuine overreaction label with a 55%+ chance of beating SPY.
SPY is within about 1% of its 52-week high with VIX near 16, equal-weight outperforming, and a one-month window that includes Jackson Hole, August CPI/PPI, NVIDIA results, and the mid-September FOMC. Sticky inflation, a hawkish-leaning July minutes split, and cooling payrolls favor mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.
{
"confidence": 0.5,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"September FOMC and August CPI/PPI can reprice duration, the dollar, and growth beta together.",
"NVIDIA results and semiconductor beta can dominate one-month tech and SMH outcomes.",
"Sticky energy CPI and inventory builds can reverse oil and commodity continuation.",
"Jackson Hole commentary can move rates and utilities independently of earnings."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.751 with prior-active rank 0.836 and shallow drawdown rank 0.791.",
"Horizon vol 14.50% and max drawdown -2.75% versus SPY 13.72% and -4.49%.",
"Recent return -0.14% and 52-week-high distance -0.80%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.776 with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"SPY correlation -0.31 and beta -0.14 with horizon vol 5.14%.",
"Recent return -1.13% after prior active -4.44%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 0.940 and quality score 0.599.",
"SPY beta 0.14 and correlation 0.12.",
"Active 21-session return -4.78% with 52-week-high distance -6.54%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.6,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY 5-session return -0.44% and 21-session return +2.78%.",
"Distance to 52-week high -1.13% with horizon vol 13.72%.",
"VIX close 15.67 on August 18."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 1.26 with horizon vol 3.06%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.620 and 10-year yield 4.65% on August 19.",
"Recent return -0.28% and active 21-session -2.97%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 1.8,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent pullback rank 0.970 after prior active -14.71%.",
"Horizon vol 22.11% and max drawdown -8.97%.",
"Recent return +1.18% with 52-week-high distance -17.12%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score 1.54, the highest on the slate.",
"Prior active return -15.48% with horizon vol 7.81%.",
"BOJ policy meeting is scheduled September 17–18."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 1.000 and prior active return +52.67%.",
"Commercial crude inventories rose 4.405 million barrels in the week ending August 14.",
"Horizon vol 53.37% and max drawdown -32.49%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active rank 0.970 and prior active return +28.13%.",
"Recent return -4.83% with 52-week-high distance only -6.52%.",
"Horizon vol 32.82%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.752 from prior-active rank 0.985 and pullback rank 0.985.",
"Horizon vol 54.10%, beta 2.38, and 21-session active -6.74%.",
"NVIDIA fiscal Q2 results are scheduled August 26."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21-session return +12.45% after prior active -22.73%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.043.",
"Horizon vol 41.51% and max drawdown -26.49%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Active 21-session return +10.28% after prior active -33.88%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.020 and 52-week-high distance -43.17%.",
"Horizon vol 44.29%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "SILVER",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -20.68% and recent active -8.86% with pullback rank 1.000.",
"Horizon vol 45.63%, max drawdown -35.51%, and quality score 0.336.",
"Beta 1.91 and 52-week-high distance -31.73%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"SOLAR",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"BRAZIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES",
"OIL",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"METALS_MINING",
"SILVER",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SP500": 100
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "MUNICIPAL_BONDS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BRAZIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "METALS_MINING",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SILVER",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY is within about 1% of its 52-week high with VIX near 16, equal-weight outperforming, and a one-month window that includes Jackson Hole, August CPI/PPI, NVIDIA results, and the mid-September FOMC. Sticky inflation, a hawkish-leaning July minutes split, and cooling payrolls favor mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"US_DOLLAR",
"UTILITIES"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 100,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Cross-section is mixed and the scoring month is catalyst-heavy, so broad SPY remains the default. Highest-ranked names are lower-beta quality or defensive exposures rather than high-vol shock names; none combine a genuine overreaction label with a 55%+ chance of beating SPY.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is within about 1% of its 52-week high with VIX near 16, equal-weight outperforming, and a one-month window that includes Jackson Hole, August CPI/PPI, NVIDIA results, and the mid-September FOMC. Sticky inflation, a hawkish-leaning July minutes split, and cooling payrolls favor mixed rather than a clean continuation or reversal regime.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-20-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17495,
"latency_seconds": 40.766016092005884,
"output_tokens": 2437,
"reasoning_tokens": 561,
"total_tokens": 20493
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%S&P 500 (SPY)65% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Dollar (UUP)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Real Estate Sector (XLRE)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.60 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)100% | 0.50 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | 4ad11240b473...18e67531 |
| manifest.yaml | 0aa5e66a1dbe...497c1ea7 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 5f0860998c16...17cf4467 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 0c0d627677df...0ede4b2d |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | beeff64b7ed3...5bcf3b53 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | fbc62aa91a3f...320e46bd |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 829dfcfd0481...9f28da6c |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | a663f5cde0e6...6796f8ae |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |