Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 85.4 out of 100, with 80.0% in the top recent-return quintile. GPT-5.6 Sol is lowest at 53.3.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 61.0 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward defensive equity, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
8 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-14 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v2-2-all-monthly-20260813
34,690 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-13
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-13T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-13
- Exit date: 2026-09-14
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z. Market observations run through the August 12, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 13 close through the August 20 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 13 close through the September 14 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7,748.50, its first gain since setting an all-time high on August 7. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,588.49, the Russell 2000 gained 0.6% to 3,045.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1% to 53,770.27. Through August 12, the AP reported year-to-date gains of 13.2% for the S&P 500, 14.4% for the Nasdaq, 22.7% for the Russell 2000, and 11.9% for the Dow.
The U.S. Treasury's August 12 constant-maturity curve was 3.87% at three months, 4.00% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.38% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.24% at both twenty and thirty years. The two-, five-, and ten-year yields were respectively 2, 1, and 2 basis points below their August 11 levels; the thirty-year yield was unchanged. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields from indicative bid-side quotations.
The Associated Press reported Brent crude at $88.98 a barrel on August 12, up 0.1% for the session after moving between gains and losses. The AP reported continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict and crude flows.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%, down from 3.5%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months, down from a 2.6% annual rate in June.
Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1%; food at home fell 0.1%; food away from home rose 0.3%. Energy fell 1.5% in July and gasoline fell 2.9%, while the 12-month changes remained +14.7% for energy and +24.6% for gasoline. Airline fares rose 2.2% in July and 25.5% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, describing both as little changed. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June growth from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000.
The July labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, 0.7 percentage point below January. Average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier. Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health care employment rose by 22,000.
For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings and a 4.4% openings rate. Hires were 5.3 million, total separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Growth, demand, and production
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Business surveys
The Institute for Supply Management reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, up from 53.3 and the highest reading since May 2022. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM classified manufacturing as expanding, supplier deliveries as slowing, and customers' inventories as too low.
ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1 and new orders 57.2. Services employment was 47.4, in contraction, and the services prices index was 70.3. ISM reported expansion in 13 services industries and contraction in four.
ISM indexes are diffusion measures based on survey responses and indicate direction and breadth rather than dollar output levels.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Producer Price Index. This release occurs after the research cutoff and before the entry session.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census July advance retail sales.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July import and export prices.
- August 18, 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve July industrial production and capacity utilization.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- August 20, 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly scoring-window exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 26, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July personal income and outlays.
- August 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS July job openings and labor turnover.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August employment report.
- September 7: NYSE markets closed for Labor Day.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Producer Price Index.
- September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Consumer Price Index.
- September 14, 4:00 p.m. ET: monthly scoring-window exit close.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting, after the monthly exit.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to the publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v2.2 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic decision without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected realized portfolio return over the close-to-close one-month scoring window. The official comparison is the S&P 500 (SPY): alpha equals portfolio return minus SPY return. A 100% SPY portfolio is valid when no active option has a stronger base-case forecast.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, and table order as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Price history is descriptive, not a forecast. Test both continuation and reversal for every finalist. A recent winner needs independent support in the supplied briefing or an explicitly stated weak-evidence caveat. Optimize for the stated horizon only.
Complete the decision in this order:
1. Assess SPY and 5-7 additional finalists, for a total candidate ledger of 6-8 unique options.
2. Include SPY in the ledger and span at least four listed economic-exposure clusters.
3. Give every candidate a low, base, and high return forecast in percentage points, with low <= base <= high.
4. Record concise supplied evidence, the continuation case, reversal case, time-window catalyst, and invalidation condition for every candidate. Keep rejected finalists in the ledger.
5. Select only active holdings whose base forecast is greater than SPY's base forecast. CASH is not an active holding. If no active option clears that hurdle, use SPY and/or CASH.
6. Construct the final 1-5 holding portfolio in the stated allocation increments. Outside SPY and CASH, no economic-exposure cluster may exceed the round's stated maximum.
7. Set each holding's expected_return_pct equal to that candidate's base forecast. Calculate the weighted portfolio base return and expected alpha versus SPY.
Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"decision": "selected or rejected",
"forecast_low_pct": <number>,
"forecast_base_pct": <number>,
"forecast_high_pct": <number>,
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"continuation_case": "<what supports continuation>",
"reversal_case": "<what could reverse the signal>",
"time_window_catalyst": "<catalyst before the exit close, or none identified>",
"invalidation_condition": "<observable condition that would invalidate the case>"
}
],
"portfolio": [
{
"option_id": "<selected candidate option ID>",
"allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
"expected_return_pct": <same number as candidate forecast_base_pct>,
"time_window_catalyst": "<same time-window catalyst>",
"invalidation_condition": "<same invalidation condition>",
"rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
}
],
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": <SPY base forecast>,
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": <weighted portfolio base forecast>,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": <portfolio forecast minus SPY forecast>,
"confidence": <probability from 0 to 1 that the portfolio beats SPY>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"rationale_summary": "<1-3 concise sentences>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- candidate_ledger must contain 6-8 unique allowed option IDs, include SPY, and span at least four economic-exposure clusters.
- candidate forecasts are percentage points, so 1.25 means +1.25%.
- candidate evidence must refer only to the supplied input and must not contain URLs.
- portfolio must contain exactly the candidates marked selected; all other ledger candidates must be marked rejected.
- portfolio allocations must be whole integers in the stated increment and sum to exactly 100.
- selected non-SPY, non-CASH holdings must have a base forecast strictly greater than the SPY base forecast.
- no non-SPY, non-CASH economic-exposure cluster may exceed the stated cap.
- benchmark_expected_return_pct must equal the SPY candidate's base forecast.
- portfolio_expected_return_pct must equal the allocation-weighted holding forecasts.
- expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct must equal portfolio_expected_return_pct minus benchmark_expected_return_pct.
- confidence is the probability that the submitted portfolio beats SPY over this scoring window; do not use confidence to change allocation size.
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks.
- Do not include a second portfolio, backup allocation, financial-advice disclaimer, or extra field.round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-13-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-13'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-13T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v2.2
model_roster_version: portfolio-v2-roster-cbcb0bc7f6ba
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-13T03:18:07.879908+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 5
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: 50
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-13'
exit_date: '2026-09-14'
created_at: '2026-08-13T03:18:07.879908+00:00'
notes: 'Fresh August 13, 2026 monthly production round. Research cutoff: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z. September 13 is Sunday, so the exit is the September 14 close.'# CapitalBench Market Briefing
Research cutoff: 2026-08-13T03:18:26Z. Market observations run through the August 12, 2026 close. The weekly scoring window is the August 13 close through the August 20 close. The monthly scoring window is the August 13 close through the September 14 close.
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Market close and cross-asset levels
The Associated Press reported that the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7,748.50, its first gain since setting an all-time high on August 7. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5% to 26,588.49, the Russell 2000 gained 0.6% to 3,045.48, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell less than 0.1% to 53,770.27. Through August 12, the AP reported year-to-date gains of 13.2% for the S&P 500, 14.4% for the Nasdaq, 22.7% for the Russell 2000, and 11.9% for the Dow.
The U.S. Treasury's August 12 constant-maturity curve was 3.87% at three months, 4.00% at one year, 4.20% at two years, 4.38% at five years, 4.68% at ten years, and 5.24% at both twenty and thirty years. The two-, five-, and ten-year yields were respectively 2, 1, and 2 basis points below their August 11 levels; the thirty-year yield was unchanged. Treasury describes these as interpolated par yields from indicative bid-side quotations.
The Associated Press reported Brent crude at $88.98 a barrel on August 12, up 0.1% for the session after moving between gains and losses. The AP reported continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict and crude flows.
## Inflation and monetary policy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.1% in July after falling 0.4% in June. The 12-month headline rate was 3.4%, down from 3.5%. CPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2% in July and 2.5% over 12 months, down from a 2.6% annual rate in June.
Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline increase. Food rose 0.1%; food at home fell 0.1%; food away from home rose 0.3%. Energy fell 1.5% in July and gasoline fell 2.9%, while the 12-month changes remained +14.7% for energy and +24.6% for gasoline. Airline fares rose 2.2% in July and 25.5% over 12 months.
On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal-funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote. The committee statement described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace and inflation as elevated relative to the 2% goal. Three voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase.
## Labor market
BLS reported a July nonfarm payroll change of -23,000 and an unemployment rate of 4.1%, describing both as little changed. May payroll growth was revised from +129,000 to +63,000 and June growth from +57,000 to +20,000, reducing the combined two-month estimate by 103,000.
The July labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, 0.7 percentage point below January. Average hourly earnings were 3.2% higher than a year earlier. Local-government education employment fell by 50,000, retail trade by 19,000, and financial activities by 14,000; health care employment rose by 22,000.
For June, BLS reported 7.4 million job openings and a 4.4% openings rate. Hires were 5.3 million, total separations 5.4 million, quits 3.2 million, and layoffs and discharges 1.8 million. The May openings estimate was revised down by 57,000 to 7.5 million.
## Growth, demand, and production
The Bureau of Economic Analysis advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate, compared with 2.1% in the first quarter. Consumer spending, investment, and exports increased; government spending decreased and imports increased. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate, compared with 1.7% in the first quarter.
BEA reported June personal-income growth of 0.2%, current-dollar consumer-spending growth of 0.3%, real consumer-spending growth of 0.4%, and a personal saving rate of 2.7%. The June PCE price index fell 0.1% for the month and rose 3.7% over 12 months. Core PCE rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over 12 months.
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production rose 0.1% in June and at a 4.0% annual rate in the second quarter. Manufacturing output was unchanged in June. Capacity utilization was 76.1%, 3.3 percentage points below its 1972–2025 average.
The Census Bureau estimated June housing starts at a 1.427 million annual rate, 19.0% above May with a reported ±15.9% confidence interval. Single-family starts were 895,000, 0.2% below May with a ±10.2% interval. Building permits were at a 1.367 million annual rate, down 3.0% from May and 2.3% from a year earlier.
## Business surveys
The Institute for Supply Management reported a July Manufacturing PMI of 55.6, up from 53.3 and the highest reading since May 2022. New orders were 56.7, production 58.5, employment 52.8, supplier deliveries 58.9, customers' inventories 40.7, and prices 71.1. ISM classified manufacturing as expanding, supplier deliveries as slowing, and customers' inventories as too low.
ISM reported a July Services PMI of 54.1, its 25th consecutive expansion reading. Business activity was 59.1 and new orders 57.2. Services employment was 47.4, in contraction, and the services prices index was 70.3. ISM reported expansion in 13 services industries and contraction in four.
ISM indexes are diffusion measures based on survey responses and indicate direction and breadth rather than dollar output levels.
## Scheduled events: weekly window
- August 13, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July Producer Price Index. This release occurs after the research cutoff and before the entry session.
- August 14, 8:30 a.m. ET: Census July advance retail sales.
- August 18, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS July import and export prices.
- August 18, 9:15 a.m. ET: Federal Reserve July industrial production and capacity utilization.
- August 19, 2:00 p.m. ET: Federal Reserve minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting.
- August 20, 4:00 p.m. ET: weekly scoring-window exit close.
## Additional scheduled events: monthly window
- August 26, 8:30 a.m. ET: BEA second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July personal income and outlays.
- August 28, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS preliminary annual payroll benchmark estimate.
- September 1, 10:00 a.m. ET: BLS July job openings and labor turnover.
- September 3, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS revised second-quarter productivity and costs.
- September 4, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August employment report.
- September 7: NYSE markets closed for Labor Day.
- September 10, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Producer Price Index.
- September 11, 8:30 a.m. ET: BLS August Consumer Price Index.
- September 14, 4:00 p.m. ET: monthly scoring-window exit close.
- September 15–16: scheduled FOMC meeting, after the monthly exit.
All values above were public by the research cutoff except items explicitly labeled as scheduled. Statistical estimates remain subject to the publishers' normal revisions and reported sampling uncertainty. Price history in the following full-universe appendix is descriptive context, not a forecast. This briefing provides facts and schedules only and makes no allocation recommendation.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
"algorithm": "sha256",
"files": {
"briefing.md": "c1531f7bcf8287a24759f94353d040d86f7a53050f9bebdc160b451f9eecbb0b",
"manifest.yaml": "e158e16952b300bc936a2f9ea12ece438f3f9b55c30da686f00ef520c6e065f9",
"market_data/decision_context_source_history.json": "bef3f0dc8789fcb7b1f9b0c1b19da6908ec4fd3fa5f54a5f0d6060c5e01ebead",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.csv": "d6554ea3b84a0fd6254a04ced8bd5d3e681475fa96b81af30881017071197709",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.json": "3731d865f98a46acc80b5ef08d4de1085a9c915f685ddfc11052b2b1fd306f87",
"market_data/universe_decision_context.md": "451e3b4799a355bc00cb6cffaee48c4bd48109dde8082c1043e03e2718982438",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json": "4adda7aef5d4638b345d5a8d0520ad186db58f15e985ecab9399458b8389f3de",
"market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md": "b6b364f7c5e726dd65bc9cbfbb5e301dbd6803e3b5bf3bfc746d19e69f41eb98",
"options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
"prompt.md": "ef3cf65c548d3cc3229f74393dc61292363e4cb8a6e609b4a75e4c2062b6698e",
"submission_schema.json": "722025ee45d276e3f4d132a6be281de790a0c5478dc0051f23ade0524ff79571"
}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-13-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Tilt toward value, equal-weight breadth, healthcare's defensive turn, and energy geopolitical support around a 30% SPY core; each active sleeve has base forecast above SPY and clusters stay within the 50% cap.
Breadth is broadening (RSP outperforming), value and healthcare show fresh relative strength with low drawdowns, and energy is supported by Iran-related crude supply risk, all offering modest expected alpha over SPY into mid-September.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid GDP final private demand (3.9%) and strong ISM support the uptrend",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 at 7,748.50, +13.2% YTD, near Aug 7 all-time high",
"Core CPI 2.5% y/y, cooling from 2.6%; Fed on hold at 3.50%-3.75%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Broad risk-off on inflation or labor shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak July payrolls (-23k) and hot energy inflation could sour sentiment",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug CPI Sep 11 and payrolls Sep 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated long yields and strong manufacturing PMI favor value sectors",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+1.68% active return over 21s; prior 105s active +1.48%",
"Volatility 11.47%, max drawdown -2.40%, near 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Value active return turns decisively negative vs SPY",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"reversal_case": "Renewed mega-cap growth rally would drag on relative performance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14, industrial production Aug 18"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth broadening with 72% of assets positive over 21s",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"RSP minus SPY +0.83% over 21s, +0.26% over 5s",
"Lowest equity volatility (11.06%) with -2.04% drawdown, at 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.2,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "rsp_minus_spy_21s turns negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Concentration in mega-caps could resume",
"time_window_catalyst": "Late-August macro releases confirming broad economy"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Relative-strength turn from depressed base plus defensive demand",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.66% active over 21s after -6.43% prior 105s; at 52-week high",
"Health care employment rose 22,000 in July",
"Low SPY beta 0.27 offers downside cushion"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls back below its prior relative range vs SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Reversion if the recent bounce was purely rotation-driven",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive flows around Sep 4 payrolls and Sep 11 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent geopolitical supply risk keeps crude and energy equities bid",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $88.98 with reported Iran conflict crude-flow uncertainty",
"XLE +6.49% over 5s, +4.42% active over 21s",
"Gasoline +24.6% y/y, energy +14.7% y/y in CPI"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below ~$80 on de-escalation",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Iran de-escalation or demand weakness drops crude quickly",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-related supply headlines through mid-September"
},
{
"continuation_case": "AI momentum could reassert with mega-cap strength",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-2.19% active over 21s despite +8.77% prior 105s",
"Volatility 25.86%, drawdown -11.22%, 2.9% below 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Tech relative strength resumes above prior highs",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Recent underperformance and high rates pressure growth multiples",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sep 11 CPI shaping rate expectations"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical risk and sticky inflation support safe-haven bounce",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"+3.92% over 5s, +6.05% active 21s, but -28.67% prior 105s active and -18.3% from 52-week high",
"Lowest quality evidence score cohort (0.087)"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar strength resumes and gold breaks recent lows",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Firm dollar and elevated real yields cap recovery from deep downtrend",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sep 11 CPI and Iran headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration into Sep FOMC",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"30y at 5.24%; TLT -4.70% active over 21s, -7.5% from 52-week high",
"Headline CPI still 3.4% y/y with energy +14.7%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": -0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "30y yield falls decisively below 5%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish dissenters keep long yields high",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sep 4 payrolls, Sep 11 CPI"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"cost_usd": 0.47075,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.37,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot August CPI (Sep 11) reprices Fed expectations and hits all equity sleeves",
"Iran de-escalation drops crude prices, reversing the energy tilt",
"Mega-cap tech leadership resumes, causing value/equal-weight tilts to lag SPY",
"Sharp payroll deterioration on Sep 4 triggers broad risk-off despite defensive tilts"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Hot August CPI or sharp payroll deterioration triggering broad risk-off",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark anchor; index near all-time high with cooling core CPI and strong ISM data supporting broad equity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug CPI (Sep 11) and Aug payrolls (Sep 4) shaping September Fed expectations"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth/tech leadership reasserting with value active return turning negative",
"option_id": "LARGE_VALUE",
"rationale": "Positive 21s active return (+1.68%), low volatility and shallow drawdown; value benefits from elevated rates and firm ISM manufacturing.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales Aug 14 and industrial production Aug 18 confirming solid activity"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Mega-cap concentration resumes with rsp_minus_spy turning negative",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Broadening breadth: RSP beat SPY by 0.83% over 21s and 0.26% over 5s with lower volatility (11.06%) and shallow drawdown.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued breadth expansion into late-August data releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sector-specific policy headline or reversal of relative strength below entry",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent turn (+3.66% active 21s) after deep prior underperformance; low beta (0.27), at 52-week high, health employment growing.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation demand around Sep 4 payrolls and Sep 11 CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "De-escalation pushing Brent below ~$80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent at $88.98 with Iran conflict supply uncertainty; +4.42% active 21s, negative SPY beta adds diversification.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Iran-related crude supply risk through mid-September"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.37,
"portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward value, equal-weight breadth, healthcare's defensive turn, and energy geopolitical support around a 30% SPY core; each active sleeve has base forecast above SPY and clusters stay within the 50% cap.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Breadth is broadening (RSP outperforming), value and healthcare show fresh relative strength with low drawdowns, and energy is supported by Iran-related crude supply risk, all offering modest expected alpha over SPY into mid-September.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.47075,
"input_tokens": 28220,
"latency_seconds": 52.12316725589335,
"output_tokens": 3771,
"total_tokens": 31991
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
Barbell of core SPY plus defensive/quality tilts (healthcare, dividend) and gold hedge that have shown recent relative strength and offer downside protection through a data-heavy month with softening labor.
Core SPY with defensive quality and gold overweight to capture recent leadership while managing macro risk.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid economy, cooling core CPI at 2.5%, breadth positive",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY +2.75% 21s, at all-time high Aug 7",
"YTD +13.2%, solid GDP final sales 3.9%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY breaks below -4% on macro shock",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Softening payrolls -23k and hot inflation surprise",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug CPI Sep 11, jobs Sep 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation as labor cools, oversold prior recovery",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Active return +3.66% 21s, +2.61% 5s",
"Low beta 0.274, shallow drawdown -3.74%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV loses relative strength vs SPY",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Drug policy headlines, growth rally leaves defensives behind",
"time_window_catalyst": "Rotation into defensives amid soft data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate-cut repricing, safe-haven, dollar softness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+6.05% active 21s, +3.92% 5s",
"Low corr to SPY 0.315"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold breaks recent uptrend below prior lows",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength and real yield spike",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Quality/defensive leadership continues",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"+3.65% active 21s, +1.84% 5s",
"Low vol 11.73%, beta 0.251"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SCHD underperforms SPY meaningfully",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"reversal_case": "Growth risk-on rotation",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive positioning through data month"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk lifts crude",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLE +4.42% active 21s, +6.49% 5s",
"Brent $88.98, Iran uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $80",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Oil overbought after +10.81% USO 5s",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict developments"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Mega-cap AI leadership resumes",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-2.19% active 21s, high vol 25.86%",
"Drawdown -11.22%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Growth breaks down on rate spike",
"option_id": "NASDAQ100",
"reversal_case": "Rate sensitivity, high beta drawdown risk",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech earnings momentum"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate cuts lower yields",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-2.98% active 21s",
"Yields elevated, 10y 4.68%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Yields spike above prior highs",
"option_id": "AGGREGATE_BONDS",
"reversal_case": "Sticky inflation keeps yields high",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Trend persistence",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"-4.32% active 21s, high vol 38.65%",
"Drawdown -17.99%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "Continued momentum unwind",
"option_id": "MOMENTUM",
"reversal_case": "Factor rotation, deep drawdown",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.43,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot Aug CPI/PPI reverses rate-cut hopes hurting gold and defensives",
"Risk-on growth rally leaves defensives lagging SPY",
"Gold pullback after strong run"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.2,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below -4% intramonth on hot inflation",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core broad exposure at all-time highs with solid economy and cooling inflation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug CPI Sep 11, Aug jobs Sep 4"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV rolls below prior support with sector underperformance",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Strong recent active return +3.66%, deep prior pullback, low beta defensive with momentum turning.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation as labor softens"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Dollar surges and real yields spike",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"rationale": "Strong recent momentum +6.05% active, safe-haven demand amid softening labor market and rate-cut odds.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19, dovish repricing"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp risk-on rotation into growth",
"option_id": "DIVIDEND",
"rationale": "Leading recent active return +3.65%, low volatility, defensive quality tilt.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive positioning through data-heavy month"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.63,
"portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of core SPY plus defensive/quality tilts (healthcare, dividend) and gold hedge that have shown recent relative strength and offer downside protection through a data-heavy month with softening labor.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Core SPY with defensive quality and gold overweight to capture recent leadership while managing macro risk.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 28226,
"latency_seconds": 38.231908309971914,
"output_tokens": 2447,
"total_tokens": 30673
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Keep a large SPY core, add breadth (RSP) given persistent equal-weight outperformance, a defensive healthcare tilt with strong relative trend and low beta, and small energy plus Japan sleeves for uncorrelated upside.
Modest alpha construction: benchmark core plus low-beta healthcare, improving breadth, and a commodity-linked hedge into a data-heavy month ahead of the September FOMC.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid growth and expanding PMIs with index near highs.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 7,748.50, +13.2% YTD, all-time high Aug 7",
"ISM manufacturing 55.6, highest since May 2022",
"Fed on hold at 3.50-3.75% with three hawkish dissents"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY drops more than 5% from entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Negative payrolls, 3.4% CPI and hawkish dissents could compress multiples.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sep 4 jobs, Sep 11 CPI ahead of Sep 15-16 FOMC"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Low-beta leadership with shallow drawdown and improving relative trend.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV +3.66% active 21s, +2.61% 5s",
"0.00% from 52-week high, -3.74% max drawdown",
"Beta 0.274 to SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV down more than 4% or policy shock on drug pricing",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Prior 105s active return was -6.43%, so the trend is young.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Defensive rotation around Sep 4 payrolls and Sep 11 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Broadening participation with lower volatility.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"rsp_minus_spy 21s +0.83%, 5s +0.26%",
"Volatility 11.06% vs SPY 13.96%, drawdown -2.04%",
"Russell 2000 +22.7% YTD signals breadth"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP lags SPY by over 1.5%",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap earnings momentum can quickly re-narrow leadership.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 14 retail sales, Sep 4 payrolls"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical supply risk plus energy CPI +14.7% y/y.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent $88.98, Iran conflict uncertainty",
"XLE +6.49% 5s, +4.42% active 21s",
"Correlation to SPY -0.154"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent under $78",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "De-escalation or demand softening reverses crude quickly; deep 63s drawdown -13.2%.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran/crude flow headlines through Sep 14"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak yen plus global trade strength supports exporters.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EWJ +2.76% 5s, +1.41% active 21s, at 52-week high",
"Yen weak: FXY -1.08% 5s",
"Volatility 23.3%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "EWJ down more than 5% or sharp yen rally",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Prior 105s active -7.81%; BOJ tightening or yen spike hurts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Yen and global trade data through mid-September"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strongest prior trend and AI capex cycle.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Prior active +39.11% but 21s active -5.33%",
"Volatility 54.17%, drawdown -24.62%",
"-12.57% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 14,
"forecast_low_pct": -14,
"invalidation_condition": "SMH breaks further below recent lows",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "Rolling over already with extreme volatility and beta 2.38.",
"time_window_catalyst": "AI capex commentary and chip demand data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Sticky 3.4% CPI and safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU +3.92% 5s, +8.80% 21s but prior 105s active -28.67%",
"-18.30% from 52-week high"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold drops below prior consolidation lows",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Hawkish Fed dissents and firm dollar cap gold.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sep 11 CPI"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls could rally duration.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"TLT -1.07% 5s, -1.95% 21s",
"30y at 5.24%, unchanged; curve steep"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.3,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "30-year yield above 5.45%",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation and hawkish dissents keep long end pressured.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 19 FOMC minutes, Sep 11 CPI"
}
],
"confidence": 0.55,
"cost_usd": 0.219225,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.43,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hot September CPI/PPI revives hike risk given three FOMC dissenters",
"Mega-cap tech leadership resumes and SPY outruns equal-weight and defensives",
"Crude reverses lower on Iran de-escalation, hitting the energy sleeve",
"Further payroll deterioration triggers a broad risk-off drawdown"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes more than 5% below entry",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark exposure with market at highs and solid ISM prints.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 26 GDP revision, Sep 4 jobs report, Sep 11 CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.9,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls more than 4% below entry or drug-pricing policy shock",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Low beta, positive relative trend, at 52-week high with modest drawdown; defensive ballast that has been outperforming.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Sector rotation into defensives around Sep 4 payrolls and Sep 11 CPI"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.4,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by more than 1.5% over the window",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Breadth improving (RSP beating SPY on 5d and 21d) with lowest volatility and shallow drawdown among broad US equity.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Aug 14 retail sales and Sep 4 payrolls broadening data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent falls below $78",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Brent near $89 with Iran-related supply uncertainty; XLE strongly positive relative return with negative SPY correlation as hedge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict/crude flow headlines through mid-September"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 10,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Sharp yen appreciation or EWJ down more than 5%",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Positive relative trend at 52-week high with weak yen supporting exporter earnings.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global trade and yen moves through mid-September"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.53,
"portfolio_rationale": "Keep a large SPY core, add breadth (RSP) given persistent equal-weight outperformance, a defensive healthcare tilt with strong relative trend and low beta, and small energy plus Japan sleeves for uncorrelated upside.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Modest alpha construction: benchmark core plus low-beta healthcare, improving breadth, and a commodity-linked hedge into a data-heavy month ahead of the September FOMC.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"cost_usd": 0.219225,
"input_tokens": 28220,
"latency_seconds": 45.939495648024604,
"output_tokens": 3125,
"total_tokens": 31345
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio balances core US equity exposure with targeted allocations to healthcare and energy. Healthcare offers defensive growth, while energy provides a hedge against geopolitical risks and rising oil prices. This combination aims to outperform the broader market in a solid but uncertain economic environment.
A balanced approach combining core US equities with defensive healthcare and inflation-hedging energy.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Continued solid economic growth and corporate earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7,748.50.",
"Economic activity expanding at a solid pace."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant downward revision to GDP or sharp rise in unemployment.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Unexpected economic weakness or inflation resurgence.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 26 GDP estimate and September 4 employment report."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Ongoing job growth and defensive positioning.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Health care employment rose by 22,000.",
"Recent 5-day return of 2.61%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "Regulatory changes or a sharp reversal in defensive sentiment.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Shift towards cyclical sectors.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued job growth in the sector and defensive rotation."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent geopolitical tensions and supply constraints.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Brent crude at $88.98 a barrel on August 12.",
"Continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Resolution of geopolitical tensions leading to a sharp drop in oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Resolution of conflicts or demand destruction.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Iran conflict and crude flow uncertainty."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent inflation keeping yields high.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Thirty-year yield was unchanged at 5.24%.",
"Inflation remains elevated relative to the 2% goal."
],
"forecast_base_pct": -1,
"forecast_high_pct": 2,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp drop in inflation or unexpected Fed dovishness.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Sudden economic downturn prompting rate cuts.",
"time_window_catalyst": "September 11 CPI release."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Continued safe-haven demand amid uncertainty.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Recent 5-day return of 3.92%.",
"Geopolitical uncertainty."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "A significant de-escalation of global tensions.",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Rising real yields or a stronger US dollar.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Geopolitical developments."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Stabilization in interest rates.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Shelter rose 0.1% and accounted for roughly two-thirds of the monthly headline increase.",
"Recent 5-day return of -1.57%."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "A sharp rise in mortgage rates.",
"option_id": "REAL_ESTATE",
"reversal_case": "Further increases in long-term yields.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Housing starts data."
}
],
"confidence": 0.65,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.375,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Geopolitical tensions easing, leading to a drop in energy prices.",
"A sudden shift in market sentiment away from defensive sectors like healthcare.",
"Unexpectedly weak economic data impacting broad equity markets."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 50,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Significant downward revision to GDP or sharp rise in unemployment.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core holding providing broad US equity exposure amid solid economic expansion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August 26 GDP estimate and September 4 employment report."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Regulatory changes or a sharp reversal in defensive sentiment.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Defensive growth sector with strong recent momentum and positive employment trends.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Continued job growth in the sector and defensive rotation."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Resolution of geopolitical tensions leading to a sharp drop in oil prices.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Benefiting from rising crude prices and geopolitical uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Ongoing Iran conflict and crude flow uncertainty."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.875,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio balances core US equity exposure with targeted allocations to healthcare and energy. Healthcare offers defensive growth, while energy provides a hedge against geopolitical risks and rising oil prices. This combination aims to outperform the broader market in a solid but uncertain economic environment.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "A balanced approach combining core US equities with defensive healthcare and inflation-hedging energy.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17449,
"latency_seconds": 15.15673445397988,
"output_tokens": 1688,
"total_tokens": 19137
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
The portfolio combines a high-conviction semiconductor pullback opportunity with persistent cybersecurity leadership, defensive healthcare strength, and broadening US equity participation. Technology-and-growth exposure is held at the 50% cluster cap.
All selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY's 0.70% forecast. The mix targets positive alpha while diversifying the primary technology thesis across healthcare and equal-weight US equities.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 0.7,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Broad participation, moderating CPI, and solid private domestic demand can extend the index advance.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 2.75% over 21 sessions and finished 0.10% below its 52-week high.",
"Positive asset shares were 59.42% over five sessions and 72.46% over 21 sessions.",
"Payrolls fell 23,000 in July, while core CPI eased to 2.5% year over year."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The constructive case is invalidated if breadth contracts and SPY breaks materially below its recent range following hotter inflation or weaker labor data.",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Near-record prices, weak payroll revisions, elevated services prices, and potential policy tightening create downside risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales, revised GDP, the payroll benchmark estimate, August employment, and September CPI arrive before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong prior leadership can resume after the relative pullback, supported by expanding manufacturing orders and production.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Semiconductors had a 39.11% prior 105-session active return but a -5.33% recent 21-session active return.",
"The quality evidence score was 0.743, with prior-trend and pullback ranks of 0.985 and 0.955.",
"Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, with production at 58.5 and new orders at 56.7."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 13,
"forecast_low_pct": -10,
"invalidation_condition": "The position is invalidated if semiconductor relative performance resumes its 21-session decline and the sector falls materially below its recent pullback low.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "A 54.17% volatility rate, 2.38 beta, and a 24.62% recent maximum drawdown make another sharp de-risking episode plausible.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August industrial-production data and the September employment and inflation releases can revive growth-sensitive technology demand expectations."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent prior and recent relative strength near a yearly high supports trend continuation.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Cybersecurity posted 28.78% prior active performance and 3.23% active performance over 21 sessions.",
"It gained 2.89% over five sessions and stood only 0.21% below its 52-week high.",
"Its prior active rank was 0.940."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -6.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if the fund breaks materially below its recent range while underperforming SPY through the September inflation releases.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High 32.39% volatility and a weak recent-pullback rank leave the position vulnerable to crowded-growth rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August and September macro releases can support growth valuations if inflation moderates without a sharp deterioration in demand."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent relative leadership and low market beta can persist if labor weakness encourages rotation toward defensive earnings.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Healthcare gained 2.61% over five sessions and outperformed SPY by 3.66% over 21 sessions.",
"The fund was at its 52-week high with beta of 0.274.",
"Health care employment rose by 22,000 in July."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7,
"forecast_low_pct": -4.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if healthcare loses its recent breakout and its 21-session active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Prior active performance was -6.43%, so the recent breakout may be a short-lived defensive rotation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The August employment benchmark estimate and September employment and inflation reports may reinforce demand for less cyclical equity exposure."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Improving breadth and lower concentration risk can sustain modest outperformance if domestic growth remains positive.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Equal weight outperformed SPY by 0.83% over 21 sessions and 0.26% over five sessions.",
"It was at its 52-week high with 11.06% volatility and a 2.04% maximum drawdown.",
"Its quality evidence score was 0.610."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if equal weight underperforms SPY on both a five-session and 21-session basis as market breadth contracts.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Prior active performance was -3.25%, and renewed mega-cap concentration could quickly reverse the breadth signal.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales, industrial production, and September labor data can confirm whether broad domestic earnings participation remains viable."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Persistent conflict-related supply uncertainty can keep crude elevated and extend energy-equity leadership.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Energy outperformed SPY by 4.42% over 21 sessions and gained 6.49% over five sessions.",
"Brent crude was $88.98 amid continued uncertainty involving the Iran conflict and crude flows.",
"Energy volatility was 24.34%, with a 13.21% maximum drawdown."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 11,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if Brent gives back its conflict-related premium and energy's 21-session active return falls below zero.",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "The rapid five-session advance is vulnerable to reversal if crude flows normalize or geopolitical risk premiums fade.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Developments in the Iran conflict and crude-flow uncertainty can reprice energy before the September 14 exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Weak payrolls and softer headline inflation could lower long yields and produce a duration rebound.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Long Treasuries lost 1.95% over 21 sessions and 1.07% over five sessions.",
"The 30-year Treasury yield was 5.24%, while July payrolls fell 23,000.",
"Three FOMC voters preferred a 25-basis-point increase at the July meeting."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "The rebound case is invalidated if the 30-year yield rises decisively above 5.24% after the scheduled inflation and labor releases.",
"option_id": "LONG_TREASURY",
"reversal_case": "Elevated inflation, three votes for tightening, and a 5.24% long yield show continued term-premium and policy risk.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The FOMC minutes, revised GDP, August employment, and September CPI can move long-term yield expectations before exit."
},
{
"continuation_case": "Elevated US yields, tightening votes, and geopolitical uncertainty can support relative-rate and safe-haven demand.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"The US dollar had the universe's highest quality evidence score at 0.775.",
"It gained 0.39% over five sessions but underperformed SPY by 3.42% over 21 sessions.",
"Its volatility was 4.99% and its 252-session correlation with SPY was -0.315."
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "The bullish case is invalidated if US yields decline after the scheduled data and the dollar falls below its recent range.",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "Weak payrolls and moderating CPI could reduce expected US rate support and extend the dollar's 21-session relative decline.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes and the September employment and inflation releases can alter relative-rate expectations before exit."
}
],
"confidence": 0.59,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 1.12,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Semiconductor volatility and a renewed growth-stock selloff could overwhelm the pullback thesis.",
"Hot producer or consumer inflation could lift yields and compress technology valuations.",
"Weak September labor data could turn the current soft-landing interpretation into recession concern.",
"Recent healthcare and market-breadth leadership could reverse as prior laggards lose momentum.",
"Geopolitical escalation involving Iran and crude flows could create an inflation shock before exit."
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "The position is invalidated if semiconductor relative performance resumes its 21-session decline and the sector falls materially below its recent pullback low.",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "Deep benchmark-relative pullback follows exceptionally strong prior leadership, while expanding manufacturing offers independent cyclical support.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August industrial-production data and the September employment and inflation releases can revive growth-sensitive technology demand expectations."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 15,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if the fund breaks materially below its recent range while underperforming SPY through the September inflation releases.",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "Strong prior and recent relative performance near a 52-week high provides a cleaner continuation signal than most growth exposures.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August and September macro releases can support growth valuations if inflation moderates without a sharp deterioration in demand."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.6,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if healthcare loses its recent breakout and its 21-session active return turns negative.",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent leadership, a fresh 52-week high, and relatively low market beta provide diversification from the technology allocation.",
"time_window_catalyst": "The August employment benchmark estimate and September employment and inflation reports may reinforce demand for less cyclical equity exposure."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"invalidation_condition": "The case is invalidated if equal weight underperforms SPY on both a five-session and 21-session basis as market breadth contracts.",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"rationale": "Positive breadth, benchmark outperformance, low volatility, and a shallow drawdown support continued participation beyond mega-cap stocks.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales, industrial production, and September labor data can confirm whether broad domestic earnings participation remains viable."
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 1.82,
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio combines a high-conviction semiconductor pullback opportunity with persistent cybersecurity leadership, defensive healthcare strength, and broadening US equity participation. Technology-and-growth exposure is held at the 50% cluster cap.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "All selected holdings have base forecasts above SPY's 0.70% forecast. The mix targets positive alpha while diversifying the primary technology thesis across healthcare and equal-weight US equities.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15844,
"latency_seconds": 60.60100237186998,
"output_tokens": 3523,
"reasoning_tokens": 1157,
"total_tokens": 19367
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Mix of SPY core with higher-forecast active holdings in energy, healthcare, and Japan to capture relative strength within one-month window.
Selected holdings show base forecasts exceeding SPY while respecting cluster caps and allocation rules.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Recent stabilization after all-time high supports modest gains",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SPY gained 0.3% on August 12 to 7748.50",
"YTD gain 13.2%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7700 on sustained volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Weak payroll revisions pressure broad market",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply concerns sustain price strength",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLE returned 6.49% over 5 sessions",
"Brent at 88.98 with Iran uncertainty"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": 1,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil drops below 85 with rising inventories",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Demand weakness or inventory build reverses gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "Brent crude levels and Iran-related flows"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive rotation supports sector",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"XLV returned 2.61% over 5 sessions",
"Health care employment rose 22k in July"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.8,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls below prior month low on volume",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Broader risk-off reduces healthcare leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "July job openings and labor data"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Export and corporate earnings momentum persists",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"EWJ returned 2.76% over 5 sessions",
"Positive active return versus SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "EWJ reverses below 5-day average",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen strength weighs on exporters",
"time_window_catalyst": "Yen movement and global trade updates"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Semiconductor strength extends",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"XLK returned 1.59% over 5 sessions",
"High volatility rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "XLK drops below 50-day moving average",
"option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
"reversal_case": "Valuation compression on rate data",
"time_window_catalyst": "PPI and retail sales"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven demand rises",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"IAU returned 3.92% over 5 sessions",
"Low quality evidence score"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": 0,
"invalidation_condition": "IAU falls below recent low",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Dollar strength caps gains",
"time_window_catalyst": "None identified"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Rate differentials support dollar",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"UUP returned 0.39% over 5 sessions",
"High quality evidence score 0.775"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 0.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "UUP breaks below 5-day low",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"reversal_case": "FOMC minutes signal dovish tilt",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes August 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Smaller-cap rotation continues",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"RSP returned 0.61% over 5 sessions",
"Lower volatility than SPY"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 2.3,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "RSP underperforms SPY by 1% over 5 days",
"option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
"reversal_case": "Mega-cap dominance resumes",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales data"
}
],
"confidence": 0.62,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.76,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Labor market revisions could pressure equities",
"Oil volatility from geopolitical events",
"Rate-sensitive sector reactions to CPI"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 40,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "SPY closes below 7700 on sustained volume",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Broad diversified US equity exposure with stable recent performance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment and CPI releases"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil drops below 85 with rising inventories",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent price gains and oil price stability amid supply uncertainty.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Brent crude levels and Iran-related flows"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "XLV falls below prior month low on volume",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Outperformed in recent session with defensive characteristics.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July job openings and labor data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "EWJ reverses below 5-day average",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance in international equity with positive momentum.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Yen movement and global trade updates"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.26,
"portfolio_rationale": "Mix of SPY core with higher-forecast active holdings in energy, healthcare, and Japan to capture relative strength within one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Selected holdings show base forecasts exceeding SPY while respecting cluster caps and allocation rules.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16065,
"latency_seconds": 23.682330193929374,
"output_tokens": 1675,
"reasoning_tokens": 821,
"total_tokens": 18561
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Portfolio overweight energy and healthcare plus software where base forecasts clear the SPY hurdle, capped by cluster limits, with SPY ballast. Aims for modest alpha from cyclical energy strength and defensive/growth diversifiers over the one-month window.
Select active sleeves only where base exceeds SPY; energy leads on oil/geopolitics, healthcare on relative strength, software on recent active gains. Remainder in SPY for diversification under the 50% cluster cap.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid GDP final sales and ISM expansion sustain grind higher near highs",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 +0.3% on Aug 12 to 7748.50 after all-time high Aug 7",
"YTD gain 13.2% through Aug 12",
"21s return 2.75% with distance to 52w high -0.10%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 4,
"forecast_low_pct": -2.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Close below recent range lows with negative breadth",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft payrolls revisions and elevated inflation keep Fed hawkish, prompting pullback",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI and September employment report before exit"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium and crude strength extend sector outperformance",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY 5s return 6.49% and active_return_21s +4.42%",
"Brent crude $88.98 with Iran conflict uncertainty",
"OIL prior active strength and high quality prior rank"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 3.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained oil price drop and XLE underperformance vs SPY",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Conflict de-escalation or demand scare collapses oil prices",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict and crude flow headlines through September"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive bid and relative momentum persist amid labor softness",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE 5s +2.61% and active_return_21s +3.66%",
"At 52w high distance 0.00% with moderate vol",
"Health care employment rose in July payrolls"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -2,
"invalidation_condition": "Loss of relative strength versus SPY on consecutive sessions",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "Risk-on rotation away from defensives or policy overhang",
"time_window_catalyst": "Employment and inflation data in late August/early September"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Recent active outperformance continues if growth holds and rates stable",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE active_return_21s +7.34%",
"return_5s +1.75% despite deeper max drawdown history",
"ISM services still expanding"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.6,
"forecast_high_pct": 7.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -5,
"invalidation_condition": "Break of recent relative uptrend vs SPY",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Higher yields or growth scare reverse software leadership",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes Aug 19 and pre-CPI positioning"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Long prior trend resumes after pullback",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS prior_105s_active_return +39.11% but active_return_21s -5.33%",
"Very high vol 54% and max drawdown -24.62%",
"Quality score high on prior trend but deep pullback risk"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.2,
"forecast_high_pct": 9,
"forecast_low_pct": -8,
"invalidation_condition": "Further relative breakdown vs SPY",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"reversal_case": "High beta and distance from highs extend underperformance",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech sentiment around data and minutes"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Geopolitical premium sustains crude",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"OIL 5s +10.81% and prior active +44.80%",
"Brent near $89 with conflict uncertainty",
"High vol 53.77% and large drawdown history"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.9,
"forecast_high_pct": 10,
"forecast_low_pct": -6,
"invalidation_condition": "Oil price collapse below recent range",
"option_id": "OIL",
"reversal_case": "Mean reversion after sharp 5s spike and curve dynamics",
"time_window_catalyst": "Crude flow and Iran headlines"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Breadth and equal-weight leadership continue",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"Russell 2000 YTD +22.7% and 5s +0.98%",
"active_return_21s near flat +0.04%",
"Soft payrolls and revisions weigh on domestic cyclicals"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -3.5,
"invalidation_condition": "IWM loses 52w high support",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"reversal_case": "Weaker labor data hits small-cap sensitivity",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment report"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid on macro uncertainty",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD 5s +3.92% and 21s active +6.05%",
"Deep prior underperformance prior_105s_active -28.67%",
"Distance 52w high -18.30%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 5.5,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold fails to hold recent gains on rising real rates",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "Stronger dollar or real yields reverse bounce",
"time_window_catalyst": "Inflation data and risk sentiment"
}
],
"confidence": 0.58,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.99,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Geopolitical de-escalation or oil supply surprise reverses energy",
"Rates reprice higher on sticky inflation data hurting growth/software",
"Labor or GDP revisions trigger broad equity drawdown",
"Concentration in correlated risk assets if risk appetite fades"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 3.2,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent crude reverses sharply lower or energy sector underperforms SPY on risk-off",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Strong recent relative performance with oil price support and geopolitical uncertainty; base case exceeds SPY on energy momentum into the monthly window.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran conflict uncertainty and crude flow headlines before September 14 exit"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses relative strength or broad equity risk-off dominates defensives",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Recent outperformance, shallow drawdown, and defensive characteristics amid soft labor data support higher base return than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment report and CPI releases in early September"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 2.6,
"invalidation_condition": "Software gives back gains on rates spike or growth rotation failure",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"rationale": "Strong 21-session active return and quality pullback setup versus high-vol semis; growth exposure with better recent path than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Tech sentiment into FOMC minutes and pre-September data"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Sustained break below recent highs with deteriorating breadth",
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Core benchmark ballast given solid but not exceptional macro backdrop and near all-time highs.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI/PPI and September employment data path"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.49,
"portfolio_rationale": "Portfolio overweight energy and healthcare plus software where base forecasts clear the SPY hurdle, capped by cluster limits, with SPY ballast. Aims for modest alpha from cyclical energy strength and defensive/growth diversifiers over the one-month window.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Select active sleeves only where base exceeds SPY; energy leads on oil/geopolitics, healthcare on relative strength, software on recent active gains. Remainder in SPY for diversification under the 50% cluster cap.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 17217,
"latency_seconds": 30.282141522038728,
"output_tokens": 1907,
"reasoning_tokens": 16,
"total_tokens": 19140
}
}xai-grok-4-6
The book is entirely in names whose one-month bases exceed SPY, using energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, and Japan so no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%. Soft labor, still-elevated inflation, and a live oil-supply overhang favor these over a 100% SPY stance.
SPY is near a record with only a modest expected one-month gain. Energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, and Japan have stronger supplied continuation setups and higher bases, producing positive expected alpha versus SPY.
{
"benchmark_expected_return_pct": 1.1,
"candidate_ledger": [
{
"continuation_case": "Solid private domestic demand and expanding ISM readings keep the index near highs through mid-September.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"S&P 500 closed at 7748.50 on August 12, first gain since the August 7 all-time high",
"SPY 21-session return was 2.75% and distance to 52-week high was -0.10%",
"FOMC held 3.50%–3.75% on July 29 with inflation still described as elevated"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.1,
"forecast_high_pct": 3,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.2,
"invalidation_condition": "A decisive break below the August 12 close with weakening breadth versus equal-weight",
"option_id": "SP500",
"reversal_case": "Soft payrolls plus still-high energy inflation trigger a post-high mean reversion.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI on September 11 and August employment on September 4"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Supply-risk premium and recent relative strength persist into the September 14 close.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"ENERGY returned 6.49% over 5 sessions and 4.42% active over 21 sessions",
"Brent was $88.98 on August 12 with AP citing Iran-conflict crude-flow uncertainty",
"12-month energy CPI remained +14.7% even after a 1.5% July decline"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2.4,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Energy underperforms SPY for several sessions while crude reverses the August bounce",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"reversal_case": "Conflict de-escalation or a sharp crude pullback unwinds the 5-session spike.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-related crude headlines plus PPI/CPI energy components through September 11"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Defensive earnings and labor-market resilience in the sector extend the breakout.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"HEALTHCARE returned 2.61% over 5 sessions and 3.66% active over 21 sessions",
"Distance to 52-week high was 0.00%",
"July health-care employment rose 22,000 while total payrolls were -23,000"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.8,
"forecast_high_pct": 4.5,
"forecast_low_pct": 0.3,
"invalidation_condition": "Loss of the 52-week high and negative active return versus SPY after jobs/CPI",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"reversal_case": "A risk-on rotation back into mega-cap growth fades the recent catch-up.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment report September 4 and August CPI September 11"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Prior relative trend resumes from a shallow pullback near the high.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.534 with prior active rank 0.940",
"21-session active return +3.23% and distance to 52-week high -0.21%",
"5-session return +2.89%"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 2,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -1,
"invalidation_condition": "A break well below the recent high with rising realized volatility versus SPY",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"reversal_case": "High 32% volatility and a growth-factor fade reverse the near-high setup.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July FOMC minutes August 19 and August CPI September 11"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Export-sensitive rebound continues while global manufacturing stays in expansion.",
"decision": "selected",
"evidence": [
"JAPAN returned 2.76% over 5 sessions with 21-session active return +1.41%",
"Distance to 52-week high was 0.00%",
"ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 55.6, consistent with global industrial expansion"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.7,
"forecast_high_pct": 5,
"forecast_low_pct": -0.5,
"invalidation_condition": "Japan loses the 52-week high and posts negative active return versus SPY",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"reversal_case": "Yen strength or a global growth scare reverses the 5-session surge.",
"time_window_catalyst": "July industrial production August 18 and August CPI September 11"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Safe-haven bid extends if labor data stay weak and real yields ease.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"GOLD 5-session return +3.92% and 21-session active return +6.05%",
"Prior 105-session active return -28.67% and 52-week distance -18.30%",
"Quality evidence score 0.087, among the lowest in the table"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1,
"forecast_high_pct": 6,
"forecast_low_pct": -3,
"invalidation_condition": "Gold gives back the 5-session gain as the dollar firms",
"option_id": "GOLD",
"reversal_case": "The bounce is a countertrend rally after a deep prior underperformance.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August CPI September 11 and FOMC minutes August 19"
},
{
"continuation_case": "Strong 21-session catch-up continues if growth equities stabilize.",
"decision": "rejected",
"evidence": [
"SOFTWARE 21-session active return +7.34%",
"Max drawdown 63-session -21.29% and 52-week distance -12.47%",
"Recent pullback rank 0.030 in the quality table"
],
"forecast_base_pct": 1.5,
"forecast_high_pct": 8,
"forecast_low_pct": -4,
"invalidation_condition": "Software fails to hold the 5-session gain and re-widens the drawdown versus SPY",
"option_id": "SOFTWARE",
"reversal_case": "Deep drawdown and weak pullback rank favor mean reversion after the bounce.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Retail sales August 14 and August CPI September 11"
}
],
"confidence": 0.56,
"expected_alpha_vs_sp500_pct": 0.91,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A broad equity reversal from the August 7 S&P high would drag high-beta cybersecurity and Japan",
"Oil geopolitics can fade quickly, reversing the energy overweight",
"Hotter August CPI or a hawkish FOMC-minutes read can compress risk assets before September 14",
"Labor-market deterioration beyond the July softness can hit cyclicals and international equities together"
],
"metadata": {},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"expected_return_pct": 2.4,
"invalidation_condition": "Brent and energy equities reverse sharply while headline energy CPI/PPI cool without supply disruption",
"option_id": "ENERGY",
"rationale": "Oil-linked energy has the strongest near-term supplied price impulse and a live geopolitical supply-risk catalyst versus a modest SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Iran-conflict crude-flow uncertainty and scheduled inflation/labor prints through September 11"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 1.8,
"invalidation_condition": "Healthcare loses the 52-week high and underperforms SPY after the August jobs or CPI releases",
"option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
"rationale": "Healthcare is at a 52-week high with recent relative strength and the only major July payroll gain cited, supporting a higher one-month base than SPY.",
"time_window_catalyst": "August employment report on September 4 and July/August inflation prints"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 25,
"expected_return_pct": 2,
"invalidation_condition": "Break well below the recent high with a sharp rise in sector volatility versus SPY",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "High prior-active rank and near-high price with positive 21-session active return support a continuation base above SPY if risk appetite holds.",
"time_window_catalyst": "FOMC minutes August 19 and August CPI September 11"
},
{
"allocation_pct": 20,
"expected_return_pct": 1.7,
"invalidation_condition": "Japan loses the 52-week high as the yen strengthens sharply or global risk-off hits exporters",
"option_id": "JAPAN",
"rationale": "Japan sits at a 52-week high with a strong 5-session bounce and positive 21-session active return, offering international diversification above the SPY base.",
"time_window_catalyst": "Global growth and industrial-production data August 18 plus August CPI September 11"
}
],
"portfolio_expected_return_pct": 2.01,
"portfolio_rationale": "The book is entirely in names whose one-month bases exceed SPY, using energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, and Japan so no non-benchmark cluster exceeds 50%. Soft labor, still-elevated inflation, and a live oil-supply overhang favor these over a 100% SPY stance.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY is near a record with only a modest expected one-month gain. Energy, healthcare, cybersecurity, and Japan have stronger supplied continuation setups and higher bases, producing positive expected alpha versus SPY.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-13-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16929,
"latency_seconds": 40.271523960866034,
"output_tokens": 2119,
"reasoning_tokens": 759,
"total_tokens": 19807
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)30%US Large-Cap Value (IWD)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Energy Sector (XLE)15% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Gold (IAU)20%US Dividend Equities (SCHD)15% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)20%Energy Sector (XLE)10%Japan Equities (EWJ)10% | 0.55 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | S&P 500 (SPY)50%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Energy Sector (XLE)25% | 0.65 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)15%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP)25% | 0.59 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | S&P 500 (SPY)40%Energy Sector (XLE)20%Healthcare Sector (XLV)20%Japan Equities (EWJ)20% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Software (IGV)20%S&P 500 (SPY)25% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Energy Sector (XLE)30%Healthcare Sector (XLV)25%Cybersecurity (CIBR)25%Japan Equities (EWJ)20% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | c1531f7bcf82...9eecbb0b |
| manifest.yaml | e158e16952b3...c6e065f9 |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | bef3f0dc8789...e01ebead |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | d6554ea3b84a...71197709 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 3731d865f98a...fd306f87 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 451e3b4799a3...18982438 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | 4adda7aef5d4...8389f3de |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | b6b364f7c5e7...9f41eb98 |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | ef3cf65c548d...62b6698e |
| submission_schema.json | 722025ee45d2...4ff79571 |