Round audit packet
One-month market allocation evaluation round.
Only insights with evidence tied to this round are shown here, so the interpretation stays connected to the audit packet.
Its score is 30.1 out of 100, with 0.0% in the top recent-return quintile. Grok 4.6 is lowest at 3.4.
Momentum exposure measures how much of the frozen portfolio went into assets that had already been recent winners before the model made its allocation.
The newest live portfolios have a deterministic risk-taking score of 83.4 out of 100.
Risk-taking score is allocation-based, not performance-based: higher means more weight in growth, momentum, cyclical, and higher-risk assets.
The newest weekly portfolios lean toward growth and technology, while the newest monthly portfolios lean toward broad and cyclical equity.
Horizon agreement compares the newest weekly and monthly live portfolios to see whether short- and longer-window model stances line up.
11 public audit hashes are available.
7 valid model portfolios.
0 starting-price rows published.
Scores publish after 2026-09-25 prices are available.
This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.
No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.
v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.
Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.
11 artifacts published.
official-v3-20260824-monthly
30,797 shared prompt characters.
Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.
Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.
Semiconductors (SMH)
Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.
Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.
Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.
At least one price snapshot after the start date is required before interim performance is shown.
The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.
## Round Metadata
- Round ID: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- Decision date: 2026-08-24
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-08-25T03:00:52Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-08-25T13:25:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-08-25
- Exit date: 2026-09-25
- Entry rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
- Exit rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.
## Briefing
# CapitalBench Decision Briefing
Decision date: 2026-08-24
Research cutoff: 2026-08-25T03:00:52Z
Evaluation horizons: through 2026-09-01 and through 2026-09-25
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Latest completed U.S. session
- On August 24, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,652.86, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% to 25,980.19, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 53,417.16.
- A majority of S&P 500 constituents rose even though the index declined.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.70%, compared with 4.74% on the preceding Friday.
- Brent crude settled 2.3% lower at $90.54 per barrel.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 3.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9%.
## Monetary policy and inflation
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The vote was 9–3, with three members preferring a 25-basis-point increase.
- July CPI rose 0.1% from June and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over twelve months.
- July final-demand producer prices were unchanged from June and were 4.7% above a year earlier.
- June PCE prices fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% from a year earlier. Core PCE prices rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over twelve months.
## Growth, spending, labor, and housing
- The advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate after 1.7% in the first quarter.
- June real consumer spending rose 0.4%. Current-dollar personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2%, and the personal saving rate was 2.7%.
- July nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, the labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, and temporary layoffs rose by 153,000 to 921,000.
- Advance July retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% from June and rose 5.0% from a year earlier; the series is not adjusted for price changes.
- July housing starts were at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from June and 13.5% from a year earlier. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from a year earlier.
## Energy inventories
- U.S. crude-oil stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 722.241 million barrels for the week ended August 14, compared with 723.104 million one week earlier and 711.796 million two weeks earlier.
- Crude-oil and petroleum-product stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 1,245.302 million barrels for the week ended August 14, compared with 1,236.468 million one week earlier.
## Scheduled events through September 1
- August 25: August consumer confidence and July new-home sales.
- August 26: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, initial corporate-profits data, July personal income and outlays, the weekly petroleum-status report, and a large-cap semiconductor company's quarterly results after the U.S. close.
- August 27–29: the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
- August 28: the preliminary annual benchmark revision to establishment-survey employment and a scheduled address by the Federal Reserve chair at Jackson Hole.
## Additional scheduled events through September 25
- September 3: July U.S. international trade.
- September 4: August Employment Situation.
- September 10: August Producer Price Index.
- September 11: August Consumer Price Index.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.
- September 16: August advance retail sales.
- September 17: August new residential construction.
- September 24: second-quarter U.S. international transactions and international investment position, plus August new-home sales.
## Data-status notes
- Figures labeled advance, preliminary, estimate, or survey-based can be revised.
- Scheduled release dates are those published by the relevant agencies by the research cutoff and can change.
- No outcome from an event occurring after the research cutoff is included.
## Options
Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.
# CapitalBench portfolio-v3.0 Task
You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round. Every model receives the same frozen information and makes one single-turn, non-agentic judgment without tools, browsing, retrieval, or follow-up.
Your objective is to rank assets for realized return over exactly one month and identify candidates that can beat SPY. CapitalBench, not you, constructs the scored portfolio from your judgment using the fixed rule below.
The deterministic candidate slate exists to prevent omission; it is not a recommendation. Assess every slate candidate. You may add at most two wildcard options from the complete allowed universe, but only when the frozen briefing supplies a specific reason the mechanical slate missed.
Use only facts and mechanical market data supplied in this input. You may use internal learned knowledge and general priors, but do not intentionally rely on facts, prices, news, or events after the research cutoff. Treat section order, mention count, option order, table order, and slate inclusion as neutral presentation choices rather than recommendation signals.
Do not extrapolate recent returns mechanically. A recent winner has no positive edge without independent in-window support. Give extreme recent losers a fair reversal test, but distinguish temporary price overreaction from fundamental deterioration. Use the supplied cross-sectional dispersion, medium-horizon relative strength, volatility, drawdown, volume, briefing evidence, and quality evidence. Optimize for the stated close-to-close scoring window only.
For every assessed candidate, provide probabilities and an 80% excess-return range relative to SPY. Rank every assessment without ties. top3_option_ids must be the options ranked 1, 2, and 3. prefer_spy is a diagnostic judgment and does not override the deterministic rule.
CapitalBench applies this rule after your response:
1. Preserve your candidate ranks.
2. A non-SPY candidate is eligible only when you label its recent return as overreaction and give it at least a 55% probability of beating SPY.
3. Select at most the first three eligible candidates in your rank order.
4. Fill fixed portfolio slots of 35%, 35%, and 30% in that order.
5. Put every unused slot in SPY.
You do not submit allocations or an alternative portfolio. Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, citations, prose, or commentary outside the JSON.
Required JSON format:
{
"round_id": "<round_id>",
"model_id": "<model_id>",
"provider": "<provider>",
"mode": "closed_capability",
"dispersion_state": "low, normal, or high",
"dominant_pattern": "continuation, reversal, or mixed",
"market_rationale": "<concise market-level judgment>",
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"option_id": "<allowed option ID>",
"origin_lanes": ["<exact lane or lanes from the deterministic slate, or wildcard>"],
"mechanism": "continuation, reversal, catalyst, defensive, or no_edge",
"p_beat_spy_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"p_top3_pct": <integer 0-100>,
"excess_return_p10_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p50_pct": <number>,
"excess_return_p90_pct": <number>,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction, fundamental_deterioration, supported_continuation, or no_edge",
"evidence": ["<1-3 concise facts from the supplied input>"],
"rank": <unique contiguous integer beginning at 1>
}
],
"top3_option_ids": ["<rank 1>", "<rank 2>", "<rank 3>"],
"prefer_spy": <boolean>,
"portfolio_rationale": "<concise explanation of the ranked judgment>",
"key_risks": ["<risk 1>", "<risk 2>"]
}
Rules:
- assess every deterministic slate candidate and no more than two optional wildcards;
- use origin_lanes exactly as shown for slate candidates and ["wildcard"] for additions;
- probabilities are whole percentages from 0 to 100;
- excess-return estimates are percentage points relative to SPY and must satisfy p10 <= p50 <= p90;
- ranks must be unique and contiguous from 1 through the number of assessments;
- evidence must refer only to supplied input and contain no URLs;
- key_risks must contain 2-5 concrete risks;
- do not output portfolio allocations, a second ranking, a financial-advice disclaimer, or extra fields.round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
title: CapitalBench CB-2026-08-24-1M
description: One-month market allocation evaluation round.
decision_date: '2026-08-24'
decision_deadline: '2026-08-25T13:25:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v3.0
model_roster_version: portfolio-v3-roster-446d2fe37cff
model_roster_frozen_at_utc: '2026-08-25T03:02:29.820581+00:00'
expected_model_ids:
- openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- anthropic-claude-opus-5
- anthropic-claude-fable-5
- google-gemini-3-1-pro
- xai-grok-4-3
- xai-grok-4-5
- xai-grok-4-6
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
min_holdings: 1
max_holdings: 3
allocation_increment_pct: 5
min_allocation_pct: 5
max_total_allocation_pct: 100
allow_cash: true
allow_benchmark_asset: true
max_economic_exposure_pct: null
entry_rule: Use the official entry prices supplied in prices/entry_prices.csv.
exit_rule: Use the official exit prices supplied in prices/exit_prices.csv.
entry_date: '2026-08-25'
exit_date: '2026-09-25'
created_at: '2026-08-25T03:02:29.820581+00:00'
notes: >-
Brand-new public-web research prepared for the 2026-08-24 decision date using
only information available by the recorded research cutoff. The latest
completed U.S. session was 2026-08-24. No prior CapitalBench input report was
opened, copied, or used. Official decisions are collected as one-shot,
closed-capability portfolio-v3.0 submissions before the 2026-08-25 U.S. open.# CapitalBench Decision Briefing
Decision date: 2026-08-24
Research cutoff: 2026-08-25T03:00:52Z
Evaluation horizons: through 2026-09-01 and through 2026-09-25
This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return. A mechanical full-universe price, risk, and benchmark-relative appendix follows this briefing in the model input.
## Latest completed U.S. session
- On August 24, the S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,652.86, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8% to 25,980.19, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 53,417.16.
- A majority of S&P 500 constituents rose even though the index declined.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was 4.70%, compared with 4.74% on the preceding Friday.
- Brent crude settled 2.3% lower at $90.54 per barrel.
- South Korea's Kospi fell 3.1%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.9%.
## Monetary policy and inflation
- On July 29, the Federal Open Market Committee maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%. The vote was 9–3, with three members preferring a 25-basis-point increase.
- July CPI rose 0.1% from June and 3.4% from a year earlier. Core CPI rose 0.2% for the month and 2.5% over twelve months.
- July final-demand producer prices were unchanged from June and were 4.7% above a year earlier.
- June PCE prices fell 0.1% from May and rose 3.7% from a year earlier. Core PCE prices rose 0.1% for the month and 3.3% over twelve months.
## Growth, spending, labor, and housing
- The advance estimate put second-quarter real GDP growth at a 1.5% annual rate after 2.1% in the first quarter. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers rose at a 3.9% annual rate after 1.7% in the first quarter.
- June real consumer spending rose 0.4%. Current-dollar personal income and disposable personal income each rose 0.2%, and the personal saving rate was 2.7%.
- July nonfarm payroll employment fell by 23,000. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, the labor-force participation rate was 61.4%, and temporary layoffs rose by 153,000 to 921,000.
- Advance July retail and food-services sales fell 0.6% from June and rose 5.0% from a year earlier; the series is not adjusted for price changes.
- July housing starts were at a 1.239 million annual rate, down 12.4% from June and 13.5% from a year earlier. Building permits were at a 1.443 million rate, up 5.0% from June and 3.1% from a year earlier.
## Energy inventories
- U.S. crude-oil stocks including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 722.241 million barrels for the week ended August 14, compared with 723.104 million one week earlier and 711.796 million two weeks earlier.
- Crude-oil and petroleum-product stocks excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve were 1,245.302 million barrels for the week ended August 14, compared with 1,236.468 million one week earlier.
## Scheduled events through September 1
- August 25: August consumer confidence and July new-home sales.
- August 26: the second estimate of second-quarter GDP, initial corporate-profits data, July personal income and outlays, the weekly petroleum-status report, and a large-cap semiconductor company's quarterly results after the U.S. close.
- August 27–29: the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
- August 28: the preliminary annual benchmark revision to establishment-survey employment and a scheduled address by the Federal Reserve chair at Jackson Hole.
## Additional scheduled events through September 25
- September 3: July U.S. international trade.
- September 4: August Employment Situation.
- September 10: August Producer Price Index.
- September 11: August Consumer Price Index.
- September 15–16: FOMC meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.
- September 16: August advance retail sales.
- September 17: August new residential construction.
- September 24: second-quarter U.S. international transactions and international investment position, plus August new-home sales.
## Data-status notes
- Figures labeled advance, preliminary, estimate, or survey-based can be revised.
- Scheduled release dates are those published by the relevant agencies by the research cutoff and can change.
- No outcome from an event occurring after the research cutoff is included.Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.
Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.
Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.
Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.
Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.
Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.
Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.
Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.
Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.
Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.
Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.
Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.
Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.
Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.
Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.
Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.
Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.
Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.
Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.
Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.
Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.
Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.
Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.
Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.
Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.
Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.
Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.
Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.
Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.
Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.
Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.
Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.
Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.
Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.
Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.
Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.
Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.
Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.
Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.
Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.options:
- id: CASH
name: Cash / Do Not Invest
symbol: null
tiingo_symbol: null
asset_class: cash
category: cash
option_group: cash
risk_bucket: cash
currency: USD
is_cash: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."
- id: SHORT_TREASURY
name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
symbol: BIL
tiingo_symbol: BIL
asset_class: cash_like
category: treasury_bills
option_group: cash_and_short_duration
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."
- id: SP500
name: S&P 500
symbol: SPY
tiingo_symbol: SPY
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
is_benchmark: true
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."
- id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
name: Total US Stock Market
symbol: VTI
tiingo_symbol: VTI
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."
- id: NASDAQ100
name: Nasdaq 100
symbol: QQQ
tiingo_symbol: QQQ
asset_class: equity
category: growth_equity
option_group: us_growth_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."
- id: LARGE_GROWTH
name: US Large-Cap Growth
symbol: IWF
tiingo_symbol: IWF
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."
- id: LARGE_VALUE
name: US Large-Cap Value
symbol: IWD
tiingo_symbol: IWD
asset_class: equity
category: style_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."
- id: MID_CAP
name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
symbol: IJH
tiingo_symbol: IJH
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_CAP
name: US Small-Cap Stocks
symbol: IWM
tiingo_symbol: IWM
asset_class: equity
category: size_factor
option_group: us_size_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."
- id: SMALL_VALUE
name: US Small-Cap Value
symbol: IWN
tiingo_symbol: IWN
asset_class: equity
category: style_and_size_factor
option_group: us_style_factor
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."
- id: DIVIDEND
name: US Dividend Equities
symbol: SCHD
tiingo_symbol: SCHD
asset_class: equity
category: dividend_equity
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."
- id: LOW_VOL
name: US Low Volatility Equities
symbol: SPLV
tiingo_symbol: SPLV
asset_class: equity
category: low_volatility_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."
- id: MOMENTUM
name: US Momentum Equities
symbol: MTUM
tiingo_symbol: MTUM
asset_class: equity
category: momentum_factor
option_group: us_factor_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."
- id: TECHNOLOGY
name: Technology Sector
symbol: XLK
tiingo_symbol: XLK
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."
- id: COMMUNICATIONS
name: Communication Services Sector
symbol: XLC
tiingo_symbol: XLC
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."
- id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
symbol: XLY
tiingo_symbol: XLY
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."
- id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
name: Consumer Staples Sector
symbol: XLP
tiingo_symbol: XLP
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."
- id: HEALTHCARE
name: Healthcare Sector
symbol: XLV
tiingo_symbol: XLV
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."
- id: FINANCIALS
name: Financials Sector
symbol: XLF
tiingo_symbol: XLF
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."
- id: INDUSTRIALS
name: Industrials Sector
symbol: XLI
tiingo_symbol: XLI
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."
- id: ENERGY
name: Energy Sector
symbol: XLE
tiingo_symbol: XLE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."
- id: MATERIALS
name: Materials Sector
symbol: XLB
tiingo_symbol: XLB
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."
- id: UTILITIES
name: Utilities Sector
symbol: XLU
tiingo_symbol: XLU
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."
- id: REAL_ESTATE
name: Real Estate Sector
symbol: XLRE
tiingo_symbol: XLRE
asset_class: equity
category: us_sector
option_group: us_sector
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."
- id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: IEF
tiingo_symbol: IEF
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."
- id: LONG_TREASURY
name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
symbol: TLT
tiingo_symbol: TLT
asset_class: bond
category: treasury_duration
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."
- id: TIPS
name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
symbol: TIP
tiingo_symbol: TIP
asset_class: bond
category: inflation_linked_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."
- id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
symbol: LQD
tiingo_symbol: LQD
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."
- id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
symbol: HYG
tiingo_symbol: HYG
asset_class: bond
category: corporate_credit
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."
- id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
name: US Aggregate Bond Market
symbol: AGG
tiingo_symbol: AGG
asset_class: bond
category: aggregate_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."
- id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
name: Developed Markets ex-US
symbol: VEA
tiingo_symbol: VEA
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."
- id: EMERGING_MARKETS
name: Emerging Markets
symbol: VWO
tiingo_symbol: VWO
asset_class: equity
category: international_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."
- id: EUROPE
name: Europe Equities
symbol: VGK
tiingo_symbol: VGK
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."
- id: JAPAN
name: Japan Equities
symbol: EWJ
tiingo_symbol: EWJ
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."
- id: CHINA
name: China Equities
symbol: MCHI
tiingo_symbol: MCHI
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."
- id: INDIA
name: India Equities
symbol: INDA
tiingo_symbol: INDA
asset_class: equity
category: regional_equity
option_group: international_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."
- id: GOLD
name: Gold
symbol: IAU
tiingo_symbol: IAU
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
name: Broad Commodities
symbol: PDBC
tiingo_symbol: PDBC
asset_class: commodity
category: broad_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."
- id: SEMICONDUCTORS
name: Semiconductors
symbol: SMH
tiingo_symbol: SMH
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."
- id: SOFTWARE
name: Software
symbol: IGV
tiingo_symbol: IGV
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."
- id: BROAD_AI_TECH
name: Broad AI Technology
symbol: AIQ
tiingo_symbol: AIQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."
- id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
symbol: ARKQ
tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."
- id: CYBERSECURITY
name: Cybersecurity
symbol: CIBR
tiingo_symbol: CIBR
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: ai_and_technology
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."
- id: SOLAR
name: Solar Energy
symbol: TAN
tiingo_symbol: TAN
asset_class: equity
category: thematic_equity
option_group: clean_energy
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."
- id: METALS_MINING
name: Metals and Mining
symbol: XME
tiingo_symbol: XME
asset_class: equity
category: commodity_equity
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."
- id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
symbol: RSP
tiingo_symbol: RSP
asset_class: equity
category: broad_us_equity
option_group: us_broad_market
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."
- id: BIOTECH
name: Biotechnology
symbol: XBI
tiingo_symbol: XBI
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."
- id: REGIONAL_BANKS
name: Regional Banks
symbol: KRE
tiingo_symbol: KRE
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."
- id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
name: Aerospace and Defense
symbol: ITA
tiingo_symbol: ITA
asset_class: equity
category: industry_equity
option_group: us_industry
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."
- id: CANADA
name: Canada Equities
symbol: EWC
tiingo_symbol: EWC
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."
- id: UNITED_KINGDOM
name: United Kingdom Equities
symbol: EWU
tiingo_symbol: EWU
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."
- id: AUSTRALIA
name: Australia Equities
symbol: EWA
tiingo_symbol: EWA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."
- id: SOUTH_KOREA
name: South Korea Equities
symbol: EWY
tiingo_symbol: EWY
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."
- id: TAIWAN
name: Taiwan Equities
symbol: EWT
tiingo_symbol: EWT
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."
- id: BRAZIL
name: Brazil Equities
symbol: EWZ
tiingo_symbol: EWZ
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."
- id: MEXICO
name: Mexico Equities
symbol: EWW
tiingo_symbol: EWW
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."
- id: SOUTH_AFRICA
name: South Africa Equities
symbol: EZA
tiingo_symbol: EZA
asset_class: equity
category: country_equity
option_group: country_equity
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."
- id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
symbol: MBB
tiingo_symbol: MBB
asset_class: bond
category: securitized_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."
- id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
name: Municipal Bonds
symbol: MUB
tiingo_symbol: MUB
asset_class: bond
category: municipal_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: low
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."
- id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
symbol: EMB
tiingo_symbol: EMB
asset_class: bond
category: emerging_market_debt
option_group: credit
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."
- id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
name: International Aggregate Bonds
symbol: BNDX
tiingo_symbol: BNDX
asset_class: bond
category: international_bonds
option_group: bonds_and_rates
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."
- id: SILVER
name: Silver
symbol: SLV
tiingo_symbol: SLV
asset_class: commodity
category: precious_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."
- id: COPPER
name: Copper
symbol: CPER
tiingo_symbol: CPER
asset_class: commodity
category: industrial_metals
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."
- id: AGRICULTURE
name: Agriculture Commodities
symbol: DBA
tiingo_symbol: DBA
asset_class: commodity
category: agriculture
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."
- id: OIL
name: Crude Oil
symbol: USO
tiingo_symbol: USO
asset_class: commodity
category: energy_commodities
option_group: commodities
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."
- id: US_DOLLAR
name: US Dollar
symbol: UUP
tiingo_symbol: UUP
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."
- id: EURO
name: Euro
symbol: FXE
tiingo_symbol: FXE
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: medium
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."
- id: YEN
name: Japanese Yen
symbol: FXY
tiingo_symbol: FXY
asset_class: currency
category: currency
option_group: currencies
risk_bucket: high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."
- id: BITCOIN_ETF
name: Bitcoin ETF
symbol: IBIT
tiingo_symbol: IBIT
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."
- id: ETHEREUM_ETF
name: Ethereum ETF
symbol: ETHA
tiingo_symbol: ETHA
asset_class: crypto_proxy
category: crypto_asset
option_group: crypto_proxies
risk_bucket: very_high
currency: USD
is_cash: false
include_in_universe: true
exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."{
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"files": {
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}
}For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-6-sol
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-5
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFFor this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-08-24-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-6
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETFThese are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.
anthropic-claude-fable-5
Top three are prior-window relative-strength leaders that pulled back in a rotation window, with quality-pullback evidence and an in-window semi earnings catalyst plus Jackson Hole and FOMC as macro pivots. Oil adds negative-beta diversification with the strongest prior trend on the slate. Persistent losers (utilities, solar, defense, dollar) show deterioration in both windows and are avoided; crypto spikes lack in-window support.
SPY fell 1.19% in the recent window while equal-weight outperformed (+1.71% 5s vs SPY), suggesting rotation out of concentrated tech rather than broad risk-off. Prior-window leaders (semis, cyber, oil) pulled back sharply, offering pullback-in-trend setups ahead of Jackson Hole and a major semiconductor earnings catalyst on Aug 26.
{
"confidence": 0.5667,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Weak semiconductor earnings on Aug 26 could extend the tech drawdown",
"Hawkish Jackson Hole or Sep FOMC guidance pressures high-beta growth positions",
"Rising petroleum inventories could reverse the oil trend further",
"September CPI/PPI surprises may drive sharp factor rotation against momentum names"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +27.06% with recent -5.89% active pullback",
"Large-cap semiconductor earnings scheduled Aug 26 after close",
"Highest slate quality-pullback combination (0.732)"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Strongest prior active trend on slate (+35.79%) with only modest -4.66% recent dip",
"Moderate vol (33%) and shallow drawdown (-11.7%) vs other tech"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior 105s active return +60.10%, recent active -6.60% pullback",
"Top quality evidence score 0.752; negative SPY beta adds diversification",
"Total petroleum stocks rising but Brent still elevated at $90.54"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +4.09% with mild -2.13% recent active dip",
"Low vol (13.6%) and shallow drawdown; equal-weight breadth favors value"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark; -1.19% recent with 79.7% assets positive over 21s"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +3.38% but recent -0.99%; volume z -1.08",
"Rate-sensitive; FOMC Sep 15-16 within window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+22.57% recent bounce but still -37.4% from 52w high with prior -9.4% active trend",
"No in-window catalyst supplied for continuation"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.95% after prior -8.38%; persistent underperformance",
"10y yield still elevated at 4.70%, headwind for rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+29.58% recent spike, vol 59%, -49% from 52w high",
"Prior active trend was negative (-8.93%); mean-reversion risk high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -22,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent -6.13% active follows prior -9.19% active; weak trend both windows",
"Quality score modest at 0.556"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +1.43 dislocation but prior active -14.53%",
"Flat recent return; safe-haven optionality only"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 4,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"UUP -2.17% over 21s, persistent downtrend both windows",
"High quality score reflects low vol, not positive expected return"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 3,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.52% and recent -9.09%; -34.6% from 52w high",
"Deep persistent downtrend with 44.5% vol and -35.5% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"CYBERSECURITY": 35,
"OIL": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY fell 1.19% in the recent window while equal-weight outperformed (+1.71% 5s vs SPY), suggesting rotation out of concentrated tech rather than broad risk-off. Prior-window leaders (semis, cyber, oil) pulled back sharply, offering pullback-in-trend setups ahead of Jackson Hole and a major semiconductor earnings catalyst on Aug 26.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"OIL"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top three are prior-window relative-strength leaders that pulled back in a rotation window, with quality-pullback evidence and an in-window semi earnings catalyst plus Jackson Hole and FOMC as macro pivots. Oil adds negative-beta diversification with the strongest prior trend on the slate. Persistent losers (utilities, solar, defense, dollar) show deterioration in both windows and are avoided; crypto spikes lack in-window support.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "SPY fell 1.19% in the recent window while equal-weight outperformed (+1.71% 5s vs SPY), suggesting rotation out of concentrated tech rather than broad risk-off. Prior-window leaders (semis, cyber, oil) pulled back sharply, offering pullback-in-trend setups ahead of Jackson Hole and a major semiconductor earnings catalyst on Aug 26.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27393,
"latency_seconds": 39.88182300000335,
"output_tokens": 3321,
"total_tokens": 30714
}
}anthropic-claude-opus-5
Only two names clear the overreaction plus 55% bar: SMH, where a 7.96% drawdown sits atop the strongest prior relative trend in the universe with a scheduled large-cap semiconductor print on Aug 26, and IWN, a shallow-drawdown quality pullback benefiting from visibly broadening breadth. Small caps rank third but their pullback reads as no_edge given the hawkish FOMC tilt, so they will not consume a slot; the remainder defaults to SPY. Crypto continuation is rejected as unsupported momentum, and rate-sensitive defensives plus solar show fundamental rather than temporary weakness.
Index-level weakness is concentrated in mega-cap tech/semis while breadth is positive (RSP beat SPY by 1.7% over 5 sessions and a majority of S&P constituents rose on a down day). Macro is stagflationary-lite: 3.4% headline CPI, 4.7% PPI, payrolls -23k, GDP 1.5%, with a hawkish 9-3 FOMC hold. Jackson Hole, the Sept 4 jobs report, Sept CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC dominate the window. That argues against duration and against high-beta AI/crypto extensions, and modestly favors broad/quality equity with a deep-pullback semis reversal test.
{
"confidence": 0.565,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Aug 26 semiconductor earnings disappointment extends the SMH drawdown given 53.7% volatility and 2.37 beta",
"A hawkish Jackson Hole address or hot Sept 11 CPI lifts real yields and hits small caps and high-beta tech together",
"Sept 4 payrolls after a -23k July print could confirm labor deterioration, compressing small-cap and cyclical valuations",
"Mega-cap-led index rebound would let SPY outperform both selected pullback candidates",
"Sept 15-16 FOMC with three members favoring a hike could trigger a broad risk-off repricing"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"-7.96% recent with +27.06% prior active, highest prior-trend rank in universe",
"18.26% below 52w high, quality score 0.732",
"Large-cap semiconductor earnings scheduled Aug 26 after the close"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -11,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 55,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +4.09% vs recent active -2.13%",
"Low drawdown -2.75%, only 1.48% below 52w high",
"Quality score 0.735, among highest in slate"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 45,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.08, prior active +3.38% vs recent -0.99%",
"Broadening breadth: RSP-SPY +1.71% over 5 sessions",
"Hawkish Fed tilt limits small-cap financing relief"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 33,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.79%, recent active still +2.14%",
"-4.66% recent return, 8.78% below 52w high",
"Vol 33% raises dispersion around a modest edge"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-7.09% recent and -9.19% prior active: weak trend both windows",
"Deepest recent pullback rank (0.955) but no in-window catalyst supplied",
"Vol 25.5%, 7.83% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-9.95% recent active on top of -8.38% prior active",
"8.24% below 52w high with 10y yield at 4.70%",
"Hawkish 9-3 FOMC hold pressures rate-sensitive defensives"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark, -1.19% recent, +3.32% over 21 sessions",
"Vol 13.72%, only 1.85% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Brent settled 2.3% lower at $90.54",
"Crude and product stocks ex-SPR rose to 1,245.3 million barrels",
"Vol 52.5% with -26.72% drawdown"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 13,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-2.17% over 21 sessions, low vol 5.14%",
"Negative SPY correlation -0.31 offers hedge, not upside"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z +1.43 signals flow dislocation",
"Prior active -14.53%, 8.25% below 52w high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+22.57% in 5 sessions with no supplied fundamental catalyst",
"Still 37.38% below 52w high; prior active -9.41%",
"Vol 41.4%, quality score 0.209"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -17,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"+29.58% in 5 sessions, beta 2.64, vol 59.2%",
"49% below 52w high; lowest quality rank tier",
"No in-window catalyst supplied to support extension"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -24,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 21,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"-9.09% recent active after -23.52% prior active",
"34.64% below 52w high with -35.51% drawdown",
"Lowest shallow-drawdown rank (0.000) in universe"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -20,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35,
"SP500": 30
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 36,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Index-level weakness is concentrated in mega-cap tech/semis while breadth is positive (RSP beat SPY by 1.7% over 5 sessions and a majority of S&P constituents rose on a down day). Macro is stagflationary-lite: 3.4% headline CPI, 4.7% PPI, payrolls -23k, GDP 1.5%, with a hawkish 9-3 FOMC hold. Jackson Hole, the Sept 4 jobs report, Sept CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC dominate the window. That argues against duration and against high-beta AI/crypto extensions, and modestly favors broad/quality equity with a deep-pullback semis reversal test.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SP500",
"rationale": "Deterministic SPY fallback for V3 slots without an eligible active candidate."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Only two names clear the overreaction plus 55% bar: SMH, where a 7.96% drawdown sits atop the strongest prior relative trend in the universe with a scheduled large-cap semiconductor print on Aug 26, and IWN, a shallow-drawdown quality pullback benefiting from visibly broadening breadth. Small caps rank third but their pullback reads as no_edge given the hawkish FOMC tilt, so they will not consume a slot; the remainder defaults to SPY. Crypto continuation is rejected as unsupported momentum, and rate-sensitive defensives plus solar show fundamental rather than temporary weakness.",
"provider": "anthropic",
"rationale_summary": "Index-level weakness is concentrated in mega-cap tech/semis while breadth is positive (RSP beat SPY by 1.7% over 5 sessions and a majority of S&P constituents rose on a down day). Macro is stagflationary-lite: 3.4% headline CPI, 4.7% PPI, payrolls -23k, GDP 1.5%, with a hawkish 9-3 FOMC hold. Jackson Hole, the Sept 4 jobs report, Sept CPI and the Sept 15-16 FOMC dominate the window. That argues against duration and against high-beta AI/crypto extensions, and modestly favors broad/quality equity with a deep-pullback semis reversal test.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 27393,
"latency_seconds": 44.401406468998175,
"output_tokens": 3543,
"total_tokens": 30936
}
}google-gemini-3-1-pro
The portfolio targets high-quality segments that have experienced recent pullbacks, specifically Semiconductors and Small Caps (both Value and Core). These areas show strong prior trends and high quality scores, suggesting the recent underperformance is an overreaction.
The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in tech and small caps, while defensive and value sectors show some resilience. The Fed holding rates steady and mixed economic data suggest a cautious near-term outlook.
{
"confidence": 0.6233,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Continued weakness in the technology sector could negatively impact Semiconductors.",
"A broader market downturn or economic slowdown could disproportionately affect Small Caps."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.17% with a high quality score of 0.652.",
"Defensive sector characteristics may appeal in a cautious market."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Significant recent active return of -9.09% and prior active return of -23.52%.",
"High volatility of 44.53% and deep drawdown of -35.51%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -10,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High prior active return of 60.10% and quality score of 0.752.",
"Brent crude settled 2.3% lower at $90.54 per barrel."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -7.09% with a quality score of 0.556.",
"Moderate volatility of 25.51%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -7.96% despite a strong prior active return of 27.06%.",
"High quality score of 0.732."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"p_top3_pct": 25,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return of 35.79% and quality score of 0.570.",
"Recent active return is positive at 2.14%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Very high recent return of 29.58% but low quality score of 0.204.",
"High volatility of 59.16%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High recent return of 22.57% with low quality score of 0.209.",
"High volatility of 41.41%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Low volatility of 5.14% and high quality score of 0.772.",
"Recent return of -0.50%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -1.06% with a high quality score of 0.735.",
"Prior active return of 4.09%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"High volume z-score of 1.43.",
"Prior active return of -14.53%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return of -2.00% with a quality score of 0.687.",
"Prior active return of 3.38%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark index.",
"Recent return of -1.19%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_CAP": 30,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 65,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
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"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in tech and small caps, while defensive and value sectors show some resilience. The Fed holding rates steady and mixed economic data suggest a cautious near-term outlook.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SMALL_CAP"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 65% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio targets high-quality segments that have experienced recent pullbacks, specifically Semiconductors and Small Caps (both Value and Core). These areas show strong prior trends and high quality scores, suggesting the recent underperformance is an overreaction.",
"provider": "google",
"rationale_summary": "The market is experiencing a mixed environment with recent pullbacks in tech and small caps, while defensive and value sectors show some resilience. The Fed holding rates steady and mixed economic data suggest a cautious near-term outlook.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
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"latency_seconds": 22.193420146009885,
"output_tokens": 2908,
"total_tokens": 21721
}
}openai-gpt-5-6-sol
Small value combines broadening participation, prior strength, and controlled risk. Semiconductors offer a higher-risk event-driven rebound after a deep pullback, while regional banks add a quality-supported reversal with less technology concentration.
Broadening beneath a weak cap-weighted index favors selective pullback reversals, but high-volatility leadership and major macro events make continuation unreliable. Weak labor data supports rate-sensitive rebounds, while hawkish FOMC dissent and elevated inflation limit conviction.
{
"confidence": 0.5767,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"The August employment report or inflation releases could materially shift rate expectations.",
"The September FOMC and projections could reinforce hawkish policy after three members favored a rate increase.",
"Semiconductor earnings could validate the recent selloff rather than reverse it.",
"Weak labor, retail sales, and housing data could worsen small-company and bank credit expectations."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 4.09% before the recent 2.13% active pullback.",
"Quality score was 0.735 with 13.55% volatility and a shallow 2.75% drawdown.",
"Equal-weight stocks outperformed SPY over both five and 21 sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 27.06% before a 5.89% active pullback.",
"A large-cap semiconductor company reports results on August 26.",
"Quality score was 0.732, though volatility was exceptionally high at 53.71%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 39,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score was 0.728, among the strongest full-universe scores.",
"The recent active return was -4.60% after a positive 2.58% prior active trend.",
"The 63-session drawdown was limited to 4.13% despite the pullback."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"origin_lanes": [
"wildcard"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 32,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return was -9.95%, the deepest slate pullback.",
"Low 0.14 beta offers differentiation if weak employment data lowers yields.",
"The 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.70% in the latest session."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 29,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 60.10% before the 6.60% active pullback.",
"Its quality score of 0.752 was the strongest among the commodity slate candidates.",
"Petroleum-product inventories rose and Brent fell 2.3%, tempering reversal confidence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 16,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 27,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was 3.38% before a 0.99% active pullback.",
"Quality score was 0.687 with a 3.95% drawdown.",
"Very low volume z-score of -1.08 weakens the dislocation signal."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 23,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The five-session return was -7.09% and recent active return was -6.13%.",
"The 8.58% drawdown was moderate relative to other high-risk shock candidates.",
"Prior active return was also negative at -9.19%, limiting rebound confidence."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 20,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score was slate-leading at 0.772 with only 5.14% volatility.",
"Recent active return was -5.49% and the fund sat 2.24% below its 52-week high.",
"Hawkish FOMC dissent could support the dollar, but weak labor data points the other way."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was a strong 35.79%.",
"Despite a 4.66% five-session decline, 21-session active return remained positive at 2.14%.",
"No cybersecurity-specific catalyst was supplied for the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -7,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z-score was unusually high at 1.43.",
"Prior active return was weak at -14.53%.",
"Low 0.12 beta reduces equity sensitivity but does not establish a positive catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 13,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY is the scoring benchmark.",
"It fell 1.19% over five sessions but gained 3.32% over 21 sessions.",
"A majority of constituents rose despite the latest index decline."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active return was -23.52%, so the recent loss extends a weak trend.",
"Quality score was only 0.325.",
"Volatility was 44.53% and the maximum drawdown reached 35.51%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The five-session gain was 22.57% without a supplied in-window catalyst.",
"Prior active return was negative at -9.41%.",
"Quality score was only 0.209 and volatility was 41.41%."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 18,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"The five-session gain was 29.58% without independent continuation support.",
"Volatility was 59.16% with a 24.84% drawdown.",
"Quality score was only 0.204 and prior active return was negative."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -22,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 24,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 14,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"REGIONAL_BANKS": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 60,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "outside_available_slots",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 43,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 14,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"REGIONAL_BANKS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Broadening beneath a weak cap-weighted index favors selective pullback reversals, but high-volatility leadership and major macro events make continuation unreliable. Weak labor data supports rate-sensitive rebounds, while hawkish FOMC dissent and elevated inflation limit conviction.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SMALL_VALUE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"REGIONAL_BANKS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "openai-gpt-5-6-sol",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 60% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Small value combines broadening participation, prior strength, and controlled risk. Semiconductors offer a higher-risk event-driven rebound after a deep pullback, while regional banks add a quality-supported reversal with less technology concentration.",
"provider": "openai",
"rationale_summary": "Broadening beneath a weak cap-weighted index favors selective pullback reversals, but high-volatility leadership and major macro events make continuation unreliable. Weak labor data supports rate-sensitive rebounds, while hawkish FOMC dissent and elevated inflation limit conviction.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15544,
"latency_seconds": 46.755404810013715,
"output_tokens": 3459,
"reasoning_tokens": 1201,
"total_tokens": 19003
}
}xai-grok-4-3
Top ranks favor high-quality pullbacks with reversal potential and p_beat_spy above 55% where overreaction applies; SPY fills remaining slots per rule.
Mixed reversal signals in defensives and commodities amid stable macro data and moderate dispersion; recent pullbacks in high-quality names show limited fundamental deterioration.
{
"confidence": 0.5833,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Macro data revisions post-cutoff",
"Volatility spikes in commodities",
"Rate path uncertainty at Jackson Hole",
"Crypto drawdown amplification"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Utilities quality score 0.652",
"recent active -9.95%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Solar quality score 0.325",
"horizon max drawdown -35.51%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.8,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"OIL quality score 0.752",
"prior active 60.10%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 3.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.4,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"p_top3_pct": 65,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE quality score 0.556",
"recent return -7.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS quality score 0.732",
"recent active -5.89%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"CYBERSECURITY quality score 0.570",
"prior active 35.79%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"ETHEREUM_ETF quality score 0.204",
"52w-high distance -49.00%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -15,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -4.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.2,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"BITCOIN_ETF quality score 0.209",
"recent return 22.57%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 28,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"US_DOLLAR quality score 0.772",
"low vol rank high"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -1.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.9,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 48,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMALL_VALUE quality score 0.735",
"prior active 4.09%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 2.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 42,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"YEN quality score 0.428",
"volume z 1.43"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.9,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SMALL_CAP quality score 0.687",
"volume z -1.08"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY benchmark",
"recent return -1.19%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 30,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"OIL": 35,
"SMALL_VALUE": 30,
"US_DOLLAR": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 62,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 37,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 41,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "below_probability_hurdle",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 44,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 28,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 35,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 31,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Mixed reversal signals in defensives and commodities amid stable macro data and moderate dispersion; recent pullbacks in high-quality names show limited fundamental deterioration.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": false,
"top3_option_ids": [
"OIL",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "OIL",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 62% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Top ranks favor high-quality pullbacks with reversal potential and p_beat_spy above 55% where overreaction applies; SPY fills remaining slots per rule.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Mixed reversal signals in defensives and commodities amid stable macro data and moderate dispersion; recent pullbacks in high-quality names show limited fundamental deterioration.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 15776,
"latency_seconds": 23.735851993988035,
"output_tokens": 1851,
"reasoning_tokens": 515,
"total_tokens": 18142
}
}xai-grok-4-5
Rank favors quality shock pullbacks in semis, utilities, and aerospace where recent underperformance looks like overreaction into Jackson Hole and soft data; crypto strength is acknowledged but fade-prone over one month, so prefer_spy remains true while still labeling three eligible overreaction names above 55%.
Soft labor print, sticky-but-cooling inflation, and Jackson Hole create two-way rate risk; equal-weight and value held up while mega-tech/semis sold off and crypto ripped, so one-month edge is selective mean-reversion in quality pullbacks rather than broad continuation.
{
"confidence": 0.57,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"Hawkish Jackson Hole or Sep FOMC path could extend growth/tech drawdowns",
"Semiconductor earnings miss on Aug 26 could invalidate SMH reversal",
"Oil inventory builds and Brent weakness could spill into risk assets",
"Crypto volatility spillover if bitcoin/ethereum mean-revert sharply"
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -5.89% after prior active +27.06%",
"Quality evidence score 0.732 with deep recent pullback rank 0.940",
"Large-cap semiconductor results scheduled Aug 26 inside the window"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 11,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active -9.95% with recent pullback rank 1.000",
"Low SPY beta 0.14 and quality score 0.652",
"10-year yield eased to 4.70% into Jackson Hole"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 6.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -7.09% and active -6.13% with pullback rank 0.955",
"Horizon max drawdown only -8.58% versus sharper tech drawdowns",
"Quality score 0.556 after shock selloff"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 15,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest quality evidence score 0.752 with prior active rank 1.000",
"Brent settled down 2.3% at $90.54 while USO recent +1.47%",
"Weekly crude stocks still elevated near 722m barrels"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 10.5,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.735 with prior active rank 0.821",
"Recent only -1.06% and distance to 52w high -1.48%",
"RSP beat SPY on 5s by 1.71% showing breadth support"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality score 0.772 with recent pullback rank 0.925",
"Low horizon vol 5.14% and negative SPY corr",
"Soft July payrolls and Jackson Hole keep rate-path two-sided"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.5,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.79% with prior active rank 0.985",
"Recent active still +2.14% despite -4.66% absolute",
"Quality score 0.570 mid-pack"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 7.5,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.08 indicating dislocation",
"Quality score 0.687 and prior active +3.38%",
"Recent -2.00% near SPY with beta 1.22"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Benchmark with recent -1.19% and 52w-high distance -1.85%",
"Majority of S&P constituents rose on Aug 24 despite index down 0.3%",
"Horizon vol 13.72%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.43 elevated versus peers",
"Recent near flat +0.19% after prior active -14.53%",
"Low beta 0.12 to SPY"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.52% and quality score only 0.325",
"Horizon max drawdown -35.51% and 52w-high distance -34.64%",
"High vol 44.53% with beta 1.90"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +22.57% and active +19.49% after prior active -9.41%",
"Quality score low 0.209 and 52w-high distance -37.38%",
"Horizon vol 41.41%"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 6,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent +29.58% fully active after prior -8.93%",
"Quality score 0.204 with pullback rank 0.000",
"Highest slate vol 59.16% and beta 2.64"
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -16,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -2.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 14,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 5,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE": 30,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 35,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 57,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 54,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 53,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 52,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 49,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 50,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"UTILITIES",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "normal",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "Soft labor print, sticky-but-cooling inflation, and Jackson Hole create two-way rate risk; equal-weight and value held up while mega-tech/semis sold off and crypto ripped, so one-month edge is selective mean-reversion in quality pullbacks rather than broad continuation.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"UTILITIES",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-5",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 57% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "Rank favors quality shock pullbacks in semis, utilities, and aerospace where recent underperformance looks like overreaction into Jackson Hole and soft data; crypto strength is acknowledged but fade-prone over one month, so prefer_spy remains true while still labeling three eligible overreaction names above 55%.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "Soft labor print, sticky-but-cooling inflation, and Jackson Hole create two-way rate risk; equal-weight and value held up while mega-tech/semis sold off and crypto ripped, so one-month edge is selective mean-reversion in quality pullbacks rather than broad continuation.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16779,
"latency_seconds": 45.28322421197663,
"output_tokens": 2790,
"reasoning_tokens": 436,
"total_tokens": 20005
}
}xai-grok-4-6
The cleanest one-month edges versus SPY are defensive and industrial shock pullbacks plus a semis dip into a scheduled earnings print, not crypto continuation or solar deterioration. Event risk around Jackson Hole, employment revisions, and the mid-September FOMC still favors treating SPY as the default residual rather than stretching into high-vol trend names.
SPY slipped 1.19% while equal-weight breadth was positive, rates eased slightly, and a hawkish FOMC dissent plus Jackson Hole and September FOMC sit inside the window. Cross-section is split between crypto short-horizon spikes and rate/tech shock pullbacks, so one-month outcomes are mixed rather than a clean trend or clean mean-reversion tape.
{
"confidence": 0.5633,
"is_official_score": true,
"key_risks": [
"A hawkish Jackson Hole or September FOMC surprise could extend the utilities and aerospace drawdowns instead of reversing them.",
"Semiconductor earnings on August 26 can widen SMH's already 50%+ horizon volatility against SPY.",
"Soft July payrolls, retail sales, and housing starts can keep small-cap and cyclical mean-reversion from arriving inside one month.",
"Crypto 20-30% short-window spikes raise the chance that risk appetite rotates abruptly and lifts SPY relative to defensive reversals."
],
"metadata": {
"portfolio_v3": {
"candidate_assessments": [
{
"evidence": [
"Recent active return -9.95% with quality evidence score 0.652 and recent pullback rank 1.000.",
"SPY beta 0.14 and 10-year yield 4.70% versus 4.74% prior Friday.",
"Horizon vol 16.05% is only modestly above SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.2,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.8,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 4.1,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"p_top3_pct": 22,
"rank": 1,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -7.09% and recent active -6.13% with recent pullback rank 0.955.",
"Horizon max drawdown -8.58% is shallower than high-beta tech names.",
"Quality evidence score 0.556 with SPY beta near 1.02."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -4.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.6,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.2,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"p_top3_pct": 18,
"rank": 2,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return -7.96% after prior active +27.06% and quality evidence score 0.732.",
"A large-cap semiconductor earnings report is scheduled August 26 after the close.",
"Horizon vol 53.71% and 52w-high distance -18.26% imply a wide one-month range."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -8.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.7,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9,
"mechanism": "catalyst",
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength"
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"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"p_top3_pct": 24,
"rank": 3,
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.735 with prior active rank 0.821.",
"Recent return only -1.06% and 52w-high distance -1.48%.",
"RSP minus SPY 5-session +1.71% shows some breadth but not a decisive small-value catalyst."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.1,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"p_top3_pct": 12,
"rank": 4,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Quality evidence score 0.752 and prior active +60.10% contrast with 21-session active -6.60%.",
"Brent settled 2.3% lower at $90.54 on August 24.",
"Horizon vol 52.53% and negative SPY correlation -0.34 create two-way risk versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -9,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 8.5,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "OIL",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal",
"medium_strength",
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"p_top3_pct": 14,
"rank": 5,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z -1.08 with recent return -2.00%.",
"July payrolls fell 23,000 and retail sales fell 0.6%, a mixed domestic-growth backdrop.",
"SPY corr 0.82 and beta 1.22 leave limited independent edge."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -3.6,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 3.4,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"p_top3_pct": 10,
"rank": 6,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Highest slate quality evidence score 0.772 with recent pullback rank 0.925.",
"Recent return only -0.50% and horizon vol 5.14%.",
"Negative SPY corr -0.31 can help if equities weaken, but dollar already pulled back over 21 sessions."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.4,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.4,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.2,
"mechanism": "defensive",
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"quality_pullback"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"p_top3_pct": 9,
"rank": 7,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active +35.79% and prior active rank 0.985.",
"Recent return -4.66% is a modest dip versus that medium-horizon strength.",
"Horizon vol 33.06% and quality score 0.570 are middling versus SPY."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -5.5,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.3,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 5.8,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"origin_lanes": [
"medium_strength"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"p_top3_pct": 11,
"rank": 8,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"SPY fell 0.3% on August 24 to 7,652.86 while a majority of constituents rose.",
"5-session return -1.19% and 52w-high distance -1.85%.",
"Jackson Hole and the September 15-16 FOMC sit inside the scoring window."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p50_pct": 0,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 0,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "SP500",
"origin_lanes": [
"benchmark"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 9,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Volume z 1.43 is the slate's clearest volume dislocation.",
"Recent return only +0.19% after prior active -14.53%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.428 and low beta 0.12 limit equity-beating odds."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -2.8,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -0.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 2.6,
"mechanism": "no_edge",
"option_id": "YEN",
"origin_lanes": [
"volume_dislocation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"p_top3_pct": 7,
"rank": 10,
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Prior active -23.52% plus recent -5.11% and 52w-high distance -34.64%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.325 with shallow-drawdown rank 0.000.",
"Horizon vol 44.53% and max drawdown -35.51% show persistent stress, not a clean overreaction."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -12,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.5,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 9.5,
"mechanism": "reversal",
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"origin_lanes": [
"shock_reversal"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"p_top3_pct": 8,
"rank": 11,
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +22.57% after prior active -9.41%.",
"Quality evidence score 0.209 and 52w-high distance -37.38%.",
"Horizon vol 41.41% makes one-month excess versus SPY two-sided after a short squeeze."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -14,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 12,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"p_top3_pct": 16,
"rank": 12,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
},
{
"evidence": [
"Recent return +29.58% equals the entire 21-session active move.",
"Quality evidence score 0.204, recent pullback rank 0.000, and 52w-high distance -49.00%.",
"Horizon vol 59.16% and beta 2.64 are the highest-risk continuation on the slate."
],
"excess_return_p10_pct": -18,
"excess_return_p50_pct": -1.2,
"excess_return_p90_pct": 15,
"mechanism": "continuation",
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"origin_lanes": [
"short_continuation"
],
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"p_top3_pct": 17,
"rank": 13,
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation"
}
],
"candidate_slate_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"SOLAR",
"OIL",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS",
"CYBERSECURITY",
"ETHEREUM_ETF",
"BITCOIN_ETF",
"US_DOLLAR",
"SMALL_VALUE",
"YEN",
"SMALL_CAP",
"SP500"
],
"confidence_derivation": "mean selected-active p_beat_spy_pct; 0.5 when all slots fall back to SPY",
"deterministic_allocation": {
"allocation_pct": {
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE": 35,
"SEMICONDUCTORS": 30,
"UTILITIES": 35
},
"benchmark_option_id": "SP500",
"decisions": [
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 58,
"rank": 1,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 56,
"rank": 2,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": true,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 55,
"rank": 3,
"reason": "eligible",
"recent_return_interpretation": "overreaction",
"selected": true
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_VALUE",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 51,
"rank": 4,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "OIL",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 48,
"rank": 5,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SMALL_CAP",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 47,
"rank": 6,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "US_DOLLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 46,
"rank": 7,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 45,
"rank": 8,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SP500",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 0,
"rank": 9,
"reason": "benchmark_fallback",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "YEN",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 42,
"rank": 10,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "no_edge",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "SOLAR",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 38,
"rank": 11,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "fundamental_deterioration",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "BITCOIN_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 40,
"rank": 12,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
},
{
"eligible": false,
"option_id": "ETHEREUM_ETF",
"p_beat_spy_pct": 39,
"rank": 13,
"reason": "not_overreaction",
"recent_return_interpretation": "supported_continuation",
"selected": false
}
],
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"minimum_beat_spy_probability_pct": 55,
"selected_active_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
],
"slot_weights_pct": [
35,
35,
30
]
},
"dispersion_state": "high",
"dominant_pattern": "mixed",
"market_rationale": "SPY slipped 1.19% while equal-weight breadth was positive, rates eased slightly, and a hawkish FOMC dissent plus Jackson Hole and September FOMC sit inside the window. Cross-section is split between crypto short-horizon spikes and rate/tech shock pullbacks, so one-month outcomes are mixed rather than a clean trend or clean mean-reversion tape.",
"methodology_version": "portfolio-v3.0",
"prefer_spy": true,
"top3_option_ids": [
"UTILITIES",
"AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"SEMICONDUCTORS"
]
}
},
"mode": "closed_capability",
"model_id": "xai-grok-4-6",
"portfolio": [
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "UTILITIES",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 1: overreaction with 58% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 35,
"option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 2: overreaction with 56% estimated probability of beating SPY."
},
{
"allocation_pct": 30,
"option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
"rationale": "V3 selected model rank 3: overreaction with 55% estimated probability of beating SPY."
}
],
"portfolio_rationale": "The cleanest one-month edges versus SPY are defensive and industrial shock pullbacks plus a semis dip into a scheduled earnings print, not crypto continuation or solar deterioration. Event risk around Jackson Hole, employment revisions, and the mid-September FOMC still favors treating SPY as the default residual rather than stretching into high-vol trend names.",
"provider": "xai",
"rationale_summary": "SPY slipped 1.19% while equal-weight breadth was positive, rates eased slightly, and a hawkish FOMC dissent plus Jackson Hole and September FOMC sit inside the window. Cross-section is split between crypto short-horizon spikes and rate/tech shock pullbacks, so one-month outcomes are mixed rather than a clean trend or clean mean-reversion tape.",
"replicate_count": 1,
"replicate_index": 1,
"round_id": "CB-2026-08-24-1M",
"run_type": "official",
"usage": {
"input_tokens": 16921,
"latency_seconds": 49.60821777099045,
"output_tokens": 2591,
"reasoning_tokens": 515,
"total_tokens": 20027
}
}This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.
| Model | Provider | Portfolio | Confidence | Protocol | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Cybersecurity (CIBR)35%Crude Oil (USO)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Claude Opus 5 anthropic-claude-opus-5 | Anthropic | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%S&P 500 (SPY)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round | |
| Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro | Semiconductors (SMH)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)30% | 0.62 | Portfolio round | ||
| GPT-5.6 Sol openai-gpt-5-6-sol | OpenAI | US Small-Cap Value (IWN)35%Semiconductors (SMH)35%Regional Banks (KRE)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3 | xAI | Crude Oil (USO)35%US Dollar (UUP)35%US Small-Cap Value (IWN)30% | 0.58 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.5 xai-grok-4-5 | xAI | Semiconductors (SMH)35%Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)30% | 0.57 | Portfolio round | |
| Grok 4.6 xai-grok-4-6 | xAI | Utilities Sector (XLU)35%Aerospace and Defense (ITA)35%Semiconductors (SMH)30% | 0.56 | Portfolio round |
Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.
No pricing rows are published yet.
Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.
| briefing.md | b84edd792fdd...43484bf3 |
| manifest.yaml | a8271d603c8f...7e01a03d |
| market_data/decision_context_source_history.json | 7af31bd44ad8...e476bcbd |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.csv | 73f99140c177...41c11d1e |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.json | 888047d90906...2efc9b37 |
| market_data/universe_decision_context.md | 627353216d1f...2b2f1d6e |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.json | e15f92f4e9f1...695b02a0 |
| market_data/universe_quality_evidence.md | 18d398a254a8...78e4f77f |
| options.yaml | 1003c5795615...4ce0c729 |
| prompt.md | b0cf9b835591...33e9174a |
| submission_schema.json | fb15e640b97f...2e10166d |