Live portfolios 25 25 open rounds
Completed rounds 42 scored rounds
Beat S&P 500 52.4% all completed tracks
Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.08 pp completed average
Portfolio pattern

How Does This Model Tend To Invest?

Calculated from every official saved portfolio, including open and completed rounds.

Saved portfolios 67
Average holdings 3.7
Average largest position 39.1%
Most common top holding Semiconductors (SMH)
Typical approach High-conviction concentrator

Usually expresses views through fewer holdings and a larger top position than peers.

Based on 67 saved portfolios.
Risk taking 78.2 / 100 0 defensive to 100 aggressive
Typical largest position 39.1% average top holding
Similarity to peers 59.4% closest to GPT-5.6 Sol
Portfolio turnover 53.6% average change between rounds
Compared with other models

Most similar to GPT-5.6 Sol

Average portfolio overlap is 59.4% on matching rounds. It made an unusually different allocation in 14 rounds.

Compare every model's pattern
Overall risk appetite

Growth

Usually favors equities, sectors, or thematic growth exposure.

4.09 / 5 allocation-weighted score
Grok 4.34.09
79.7% high-risk exposure 36.5% technology exposure 4.2% defensive holdings
Most frequently held assets
Semiconductors (SMH)AI and Technology 47.8% held 17.2% avg
US Momentum Equities (MTUM)US Factor Equity 35.8% held 8.2% avg
Healthcare Sector (XLV)US Sector 31.3% held 8.9% avg
Financials Sector (XLF)US Sector 28.4% held 7.5% avg
Energy Sector (XLE)US Sector 26.9% held 9.3% avg
Technology Sector (XLK)US Sector 26.9% held 7.8% avg
Biotechnology (XBI)Healthcare And Biotech 22.4% held 5.4% avg
Average allocation by category
US Sector37.6%
AI and Technology19.9%
US Factor Equity10.7%
US Size Factor5.5%
Healthcare And Biotech5.4%
US Style Factor5.2%
US Industry4.6%
Current portfolios

What Is This Model Holding Now?

25 open portfolios across weekly and monthly tests. Completed rounds are excluded.

Weekly5 open portfolios
6 assets
Completed rounds are excluded from this live view.Next scoring target: 2026-07-16
Still in progress

How Are Its Open Portfolios Doing?

Latest available close for live rounds only. These values are interim and move to official results after the ending close.

Weekly live
Portfolio
-0.17%
S&P 500
+0.39%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-0.55 pp
4 open tests
Monthly live
Portfolio
-1.13%
S&P 500
+1.41%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500
-2.55 pp
19 open tests
See all 23 open round returns
CB-2026-07-14-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.02% S&P 500 +0.40% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.38 pp CB-2026-07-13-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.34% S&P 500 +0.75% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.09 pp CB-2026-07-10-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.07% S&P 500 -0.02% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.05 pp CB-2026-07-09-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +1.38% S&P 500 +0.41% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.96 pp CB-2026-07-08-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.35% S&P 500 +1.26% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.92 pp CB-2026-07-07-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.16% S&P 500 +0.95% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.11 pp CB-2026-07-06-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.25% S&P 500 +0.47% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.72 pp CB-2026-07-02-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.77% S&P 500 +1.35% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.12 pp CB-2026-07-01-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.20% S&P 500 +1.21% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.01 pp CB-2026-06-30-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.26% S&P 500 +1.08% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -3.34 pp CB-2026-06-29-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.10% S&P 500 +1.86% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.96 pp CB-2026-06-26-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -0.01% S&P 500 +3.54% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -3.55 pp CB-2026-06-25-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.32% S&P 500 +2.79% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.47 pp CB-2026-06-24-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +1.58% S&P 500 +2.94% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.36 pp CB-2026-06-23-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +1.19% S&P 500 +2.89% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.70 pp CB-2026-06-22-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -6.98% S&P 500 +1.40% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -8.38 pp CB-2026-07-14-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +0.21% S&P 500 +0.40% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.19 pp CB-2026-07-13-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio +3.05% S&P 500 +0.75% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +2.29 pp CB-2026-06-18-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -5.55% S&P 500 +1.08% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -6.63 pp CB-2026-07-10-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -1.82% S&P 500 -0.02% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -1.80 pp CB-2026-06-17-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.87% S&P 500 +1.87% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -4.74 pp CB-2026-07-09-1W weekly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.10% S&P 500 +0.41% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.51 pp CB-2026-06-16-1M monthly / close 2026-07-15 Portfolio -2.20% S&P 500 +0.60% Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -2.79 pp
Completed results

How Has This Model Performed?

Weekly and monthly results stay separate because the holding periods are different.

Weekly record

7 wins / 28 completed

Avg return -0.15%
S&P 500 +0.14%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 -0.29 pp
Hit rate 46.4%
Avg rank 2.8
Best round CB-2026-05-27-1W
Monthly record

6 wins / 14 completed

Avg return +0.08%
S&P 500 -0.28%
Avg Portfolio Minus S&P 500 +0.35 pp
Hit rate 64.3%
Avg rank 2.0
Best round CB-2026-05-24-1M
Round by round

When Did It Beat The S&P 500?

Bars to the right beat the S&P 500. Bars to the left trailed it.

CB-2026-05-10-1Mmonthly / rank 3 of 4 +2.42 pp CB-2026-05-17-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 4 -1.98 pp CB-2026-05-24-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 4 +7.21 pp CB-2026-05-24-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 4 +2.24 pp CB-2026-05-27-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 4 +3.86 pp CB-2026-05-28-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 5 +3.97 pp CB-2026-05-28-1Wweekly / rank 4 of 5 +2.28 pp CB-2026-06-01-1Mmonthly / rank 3 of 5 +1.61 pp CB-2026-05-29-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 5 +1.61 pp CB-2026-06-01-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 -2.00 pp CB-2026-05-29-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 -2.49 pp CB-2026-06-02-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 5 +1.04 pp CB-2026-06-02-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 -2.73 pp CB-2026-06-03-1Mmonthly / rank 3 of 5 -4.72 pp CB-2026-06-03-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 -5.21 pp CB-2026-06-05-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 5 +0.58 pp CB-2026-06-05-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 +0.10 pp CB-2026-06-08-1Mmonthly / rank 3 of 5 +0.59 pp CB-2026-06-08-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 -2.66 pp CB-2026-06-09-1Mmonthly / rank 4 of 6 -0.02 pp CB-2026-06-09-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 6 -1.02 pp CB-2026-06-12-1Mmonthly / rank 1 of 6 +2.11 pp CB-2026-06-12-1Wweekly / rank 4 of 6 -2.37 pp CB-2026-06-13-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 5 -3.48 pp CB-2026-06-13-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 6 +2.99 pp CB-2026-06-15-1Mmonthly / rank 2 of 5 -5.98 pp CB-2026-06-15-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 +3.41 pp CB-2026-06-16-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 +1.77 pp CB-2026-06-17-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 +1.38 pp CB-2026-06-18-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 5 -1.60 pp CB-2026-06-22-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 -1.82 pp CB-2026-06-23-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 5 +2.15 pp CB-2026-06-24-1Wweekly / rank 2 of 5 +0.19 pp CB-2026-06-25-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 +2.33 pp CB-2026-06-26-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 5 -0.29 pp CB-2026-06-29-1Wweekly / rank 5 of 5 -2.94 pp CB-2026-06-30-1Wweekly / rank 4 of 5 -4.27 pp CB-2026-07-01-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 6 +2.21 pp CB-2026-07-02-1Wweekly / rank 6 of 6 -2.43 pp CB-2026-07-06-1Wweekly / rank 1 of 6 -1.36 pp CB-2026-07-07-1Wweekly / rank 3 of 6 +0.37 pp CB-2026-07-08-1Wweekly / rank 4 of 7 -0.22 pp
Ranking context

Where Does It Rank Against Comparable Models?

Each group uses only rounds completed by every included model.

See every comparison group 10
Weekly · Current

Jun 9, 2026 roster

Weekly comparison set that starts when Claude Fable 5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

Open full set
#3 Rank in set 5.3 CapitalBench Score 4.3% Total return 8 Shared rounds

Current Weekly Benchmark

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

GPT-5.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 4.3 This model
Claude Fable 5
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Opus 4.7
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds
12.5
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds
10.2
Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds
5.3
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
5.1
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
0.6
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
-0.2
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 8/8 scored rounds
7.6
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
8 shared resolved rounds6 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-07-08-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

OpenAI GPT-5.5
1.25%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
1.03%
xAI Grok 4.3
0.54%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
0.52%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
0.06%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.02%
S&P S&P 500
0.76%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
10.07%
Excluded for fairness: CB-2026-06-15-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-16-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-17-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-18-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-22-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-23-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-24-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-25-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-26-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-29-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5; CB-2026-06-30-1W missing anthropic-claude-fable-5 Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.
Model-specific findings

What Has CapitalBench Learned About Grok 4.3?

Findings tied directly to this model's decisions or completed results.

Market EnvironmentAs of Jul 15
Monthly market environments10 resolved rounds

Grok 4.3 leads across multiple monthly market environments

Grok 4.3 leads down environments at -1.27% across 5 tests; Grok 4.3 leads up environments at +1.66% across 5 tests.

Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 15, 2026
Down Leader Average Return
-1.27%
Down Shared Rounds
5
Down Leader Stability
0.60
Market EnvironmentAs of Jul 15
Monthly up environments5 resolved roundsModel: Grok 4.3

Grok 4.3 leads when the S&P 500 is positive

The model averaged +1.66% across 5 shared-cohort rounds drawn from 5 resolved monthly up environments. The sample meets publication thresholds.

Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 15, 2026
Average Model Return
+1.66%
Average S&P 500 Return
+1.71%
Capitalbench Score
7.5
Market EnvironmentAs of Jul 15
Monthly down environments5 resolved roundsModel: Grok 4.3

Grok 4.3 leads when the S&P 500 is negative

The model averaged -1.27% across 5 shared-cohort rounds drawn from 7 resolved monthly down environments. The sample meets publication thresholds.

Market environments group resolved rounds by the S&P 500 return over the same weekly or monthly window. Models are compared only on shared rounds; high confidence requires at least six observations and stable leadership.

Medium confidenceMath: deterministicData through Jul 15, 2026
Average Model Return
-1.27%
Average S&P 500 Return
-1.97%
Capitalbench Score
-7.1
Decision history

What Did It Choose In Each Round?

Open a row to see the full portfolio, rationale, and audit files.

Round Track Window Portfolio Result
CB-2026-07-15-1W official-20260715 weekly 2026-07-15 to 2026-07-22 ENERGY 50.0%OIL 50.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 50.0% Crude Oil (USO) 50.0%
Rationale

Geopolitical energy disruption outweighs mixed macro data and earnings timing for the short scoring window.

CB-2026-07-15-1M official-20260715 monthly 2026-07-15 to 2026-08-14 ENERGY 50.0%OIL 30.0%FINANCIALS 20.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 50.0% Crude Oil (USO) 30.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 20.0%
Rationale

Geopolitical energy supply risk dominates the one-month window; allocations prioritize direct beneficiaries with 5% increments summing to 100%.

CB-2026-07-14-1W official-20260714 weekly 2026-07-14 to 2026-07-21 ENERGY 40.0%OIL 35.0%FINANCIALS 25.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 40.0% Crude Oil (USO) 35.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 25.0%
Rationale

One-week window dominated by unresolved Hormuz blockade and rising oil prices, with supportive bank earnings providing secondary tailwind; weak jobs data secondary to energy flow risks.

CB-2026-07-14-1M official-20260714 monthly 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-14 ENERGY 40.0%FINANCIALS 35.0%SP500 25.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 40.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 35.0% S&P 500 (SPY) 25.0%
Rationale

Energy benefits from unresolved Hormuz tensions and elevated oil prices; financials from above-expectation bank results; overall allocation balances catalyst exposure with broad equity participation over the July 14 to August 14 window.

CB-2026-07-13-1W official-20260713 weekly 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-20 OIL 100.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Crude Oil (USO) 100.0%
Rationale

Geopolitical supply risk dominates the short scoring window; oil exposure offers the clearest path to outperformance versus SPX.

CB-2026-07-13-1M official-20260713 monthly 2026-07-13 to 2026-08-13 ENERGY 50.0%FINANCIALS 30.0%HEALTHCARE 20.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 50.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 30.0% Healthcare Sector (XLV) 20.0%
Rationale

Energy positioned for continued Hormuz-driven gains; financials and healthcare provide relative stability ahead of FOMC and CPI releases.

CB-2026-07-10-1W official-20260710 weekly 2026-07-10 to 2026-07-17 SEMICONDUCTORS 50.0%TECHNOLOGY 30.0%ENERGY 20.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 50.0% Technology Sector (XLK) 30.0% Energy Sector (XLE) 20.0%
Rationale

AI demand and recent semiconductor outperformance plus Middle East energy risks favor overweight in SEMICONDUCTORS, TECHNOLOGY, and ENERGY over the one-week window.

CB-2026-07-10-1M official-20260710 monthly 2026-07-10 to 2026-08-10 SEMICONDUCTORS 50.0%TECHNOLOGY 30.0%CYBERSECURITY 20.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Semiconductors (SMH) 50.0% Technology Sector (XLK) 30.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20.0%
Rationale

AI-related facts dominate positive signals; overweight semiconductors and tech for expected outperformance versus S&P 500 over the one-month scoring period.

CB-2026-07-09-1W official-20260709 weekly 2026-07-09 to 2026-07-16 TECHNOLOGY 50.0%SEMICONDUCTORS 30.0%CYBERSECURITY 20.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Technology Sector (XLK) 50.0% Semiconductors (SMH) 30.0% Cybersecurity (CIBR) 20.0%
Rationale

Tech and AI-related sectors showed the strongest recent performance and fundamental support in the briefing; allocation targets one-week alpha versus SP500.

CB-2026-07-09-1M official-20260709 monthly 2026-07-09 to 2026-08-07 ENERGY 40.0%AEROSPACE_DEFENSE 30.0%FINANCIALS 30.0% Pending
Full portfolio
Energy Sector (XLE) 40.0% Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 30.0% Financials Sector (XLF) 30.0%
Rationale

Geopolitical events dominate the one-month window; energy and defense benefit directly while financials gain from contained rate volatility.

Audit and data Public Audit Packets For This Model