Final benchmark result

CB-2026-05-10-1M

Name: CB-2026-05-10-1M CapitalBench audit dataset
Published: 2026-05-10

Monthly round one month

One-month CapitalBench official evaluation round using the frozen May 10, 2026 briefing.

Official result

Gemini 3.1 Pro Won This Monthly Round

Scored from 2026-05-08 close to 2026-06-10 close. This page shows raw portfolio return, S&P 500 comparison, and the maximum possible return for the saved asset universe.

Winner Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

Window 2026-05-08 to 2026-06-10

Models 4 scored portfolios

Assets 40 eligible choices

Monthly result

Portfolio Return And S&P 500

All return bars use one shared scale.

Scored

Model portfolios S&P 500 benchmark Maximum possible return

Gemini 3.1 Pro

Claude Opus 4.7

Grok 4.3

GPT-5.5

S&P 500

Max

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

0.77%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

0.77%

Grok 4.3 xAI

0.77%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

0.77%

S&P 500 Benchmark

-1.65%

Max possible XLV

6.52%

Portfolio context

Shows each model's saved portfolio weights.

Model portfolios

Ranked in the same order as the chart.

Gemini 3.1 Pro Google

SMH 100%

Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic

SMH 100%

Grok 4.3 xAI

SMH 100%

GPT-5.5 OpenAI

SMH 100%

Reference points

Not model portfolios.

S&P 500 Benchmark

Benchmark return over the same scoring window

Max possible XLV

100% Healthcare Sector (XLV) hindsight ceiling

CapitalBench Score audit

Score Formula

100 matches the oracle return; negative scores preserve the size of a loss.

Gemini 3.1 Pro score 11.8 · portfolio 0.77% · oracle 6.52%: Healthcare Sector (XLV) Claude Opus 4.7 score 11.8 · portfolio 0.77% · oracle 6.52%: Healthcare Sector (XLV) Grok 4.3 score 11.8 · portfolio 0.77% · oracle 6.52%: Healthcare Sector (XLV) GPT-5.5 score 11.8 · portfolio 0.77% · oracle 6.52%: Healthcare Sector (XLV)

Final leaderboard

Official Scores

Rows show portfolio return, S&P 500 comparison, and regret versus the maximum possible return.


Gemini 3.1 Pro	Google	SEMICONDUCTORS	1	0.77%	-1.65%	+2.42 pp	5.75%
Claude Opus 4.7	Anthropic	SEMICONDUCTORS	1	0.77%	-1.65%	+2.42 pp	5.75%
Grok 4.3	xAI	SEMICONDUCTORS	1	0.77%	-1.65%	+2.42 pp	5.75%
GPT-5.5	OpenAI	SEMICONDUCTORS	1	0.77%	-1.65%	+2.42 pp	5.75%

Test CB-2026-05-10-1M scored

Portfolios Frozen By 2026-05-11

Start Date 2026-05-08

End Date 2026-06-10

Run ID official-round-1-clean

1 Inputs saved
7 public audit hashes are available.
2 Portfolios collected
4 valid model portfolios.
3 Start priced
40 starting-price rows published.
4 Scores published
The benchmark result is available for this completed round.

Round state

Final Score Published

This round has model portfolios, starting prices, ending prices, and final scores.

Scored

Model portfolios

4 valid portfolios

No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.

Asset list

40 saved choices

capitalbench_universe_v1_5 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.

Scoring

Published

Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.

Input audit hashes

7 artifacts published.

Public run selected

official-round-1-clean

Model-facing prompt available

36,231 shared prompt characters.

Ending prices saved

40 entry and exit price rows support the final score.

Model consensus

Where Models Concentrated In This Round

Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.

Pre-score consensus

Top exposure 100%

Semiconductors (SMH)

Top 3 exposures 100%

Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.

Effective spread 1.0 assets

Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.

Average allocation across 4 model portfolios Assets

Semiconductors (SMH) 4 models: Claude Opus 4.7 100% / Gemini 3.1 Pro 100% / GPT-5.5 100% / Grok 4.3 100%

100%

Realized asset returns

What Moved During The Round

The table shows the top realized asset returns over the official scoring window. These returns explain the opportunity set behind the model scores.


1	Healthcare Sector (XLV)	XLV	6.52%	143.49	152.85
2	Energy Sector (XLE)	XLE	4.58%	55.70	58.25
3	US Dividend Equities (SCHD)	SCHD	2.02%	31.62	32.26
4	Financials Sector (XLF)	XLF	1.93%	51.24	52.23
5	US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)	SPLV	1.92%	72.50	73.89
6	Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)	XLP	1.56%	84.18	85.49
7	Real Estate Sector (XLRE)	XLRE	1.31%	44.41	44.99
8	US Momentum Equities (MTUM)	MTUM	1.03%	301.80	304.92
9	Semiconductors (SMH)	SMH	0.77%	566.54	570.91
10	Technology Sector (XLK)	XLK	0.63%	175.52	176.63
11	US Large-Cap Value (IWD)	IWD	0.57%	233.90	235.24
12	Software (IGV)	IGV	0.47%	91.15	91.58

Portfolio attribution

How Each Holding Contributed

Contribution equals submitted allocation multiplied by the asset return over the scoring window.


Claude Opus 4.7	Semiconductors (SMH)	100%	0.77%	0.77%
Gemini 3.1 Pro	Semiconductors (SMH)	100%	0.77%	0.77%
GPT-5.5	Semiconductors (SMH)	100%	0.77%	0.77%
Grok 4.3	Semiconductors (SMH)	100%	0.77%	0.77%

Saved model-facing context

Prompt And Input Packet

The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.

Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 36,231 characters

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.

Your objective is to choose the single allowed option you expect to have the highest total return over the round horizon, based only on the briefing and option list below. The official leaderboard ranks each model by the realized return of its selected option relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.

Your selected option is scored by its realized percentage return over the round window. Alpha is selected option return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

Use only the information in this prompt. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, or rely on information after the research cutoff. If your prior knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must select exactly one option. Do not allocate across multiple options. Do not hedge. CASH is a valid option.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "selected_option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- selected_option_id must be exactly one ID from the allowed option list.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best single choice among the allowed options for this round.
- rationale_summary is required and should be 1-3 concise sentences.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the selected option to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup choice, second-best option, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
- Do not recommend a portfolio.
- Do not choose multiple options.

## Round Metadata

- Round ID: CB-2026-05-10-1M
- Decision date: 2026-05-10
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-05-10T22:23:19Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-05-11T01:00:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-05-08
- Exit date: 2026-06-10
- Entry rule: Use Tiingo EOD adjusted close from the last trading close before the decision deadline; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use Tiingo EOD adjusted close on the exit_date for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.

## Briefing

# **CapitalBench Briefing**

## **1\. Research Cutoff**

The exact research cutoff is 2026-05-10T22:23:19Z (May 10, 2026, 6:23:19 PM EDT, America/Toronto).

## **2\. Fact-Only Statement**

This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.

## **3\. Data Availability Notes**

| data area | status | factual note |
| :---- | :---- | :---- |
| inflation | provided | March 2026 CPI and PCE data observed; April CPI scheduled. |
| labor market | provided | April 2026 nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and initial claims observed. |
| growth/activity | provided | Q1 2026 GDP and March industrial production observed. |
| consumer | provided | March 2026 retail sales observed. |
| housing | provided | March 2026 existing and new home sales observed. |
| Federal Reserve policy | provided | April 2026 FOMC target range and votes observed. |
| Treasury yields | provided | Yield curve observed through May 7, 2026\. |
| real rates | provided | TIPS yields observed through May 7, 2026\. |
| breakeven inflation | provided | 10-year breakeven inflation observed. |
| US dollar | not provided | not provided in source reports. |
| volatility | provided | VIX and MOVE index levels observed through May 8, 2026\. |
| credit spreads | provided | Investment grade and high yield OAS observed through May 7, 2026\. |
| broad US equities | provided | S\&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 levels, breadth, and factor spreads observed. |
| US sectors | provided | YTD returns for 11 GICS sectors, semiconductors, and software observed through May 8, 2026\. |
| international equities | provided | MSCI EAFE, Japan, Europe, and Emerging Markets index levels observed through May 8, 2026\. |
| commodities | provided | Brent, Copper, Natural Gas, broad, and agriculture indices observed. |
| AI/technology | provided | FactSet Q1 earnings and margins for S\&P 500 observed. |
| bonds and credit | provided | Aggregate bond index return observed. |
| bank lending or deposit data | provided | Total deposits at commercial banks observed. |
| Treasury market liquidity | provided | US Government Securities Liquidity Index status observed. |
| scheduled calendar | provided | FOMC minutes, Beige Book, and other macroeconomic release dates observed. |

## **4\. Macro Release Table**

| indicator | source-reported value | prior value | unit | release or observation date | period covered | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| CPI | 3.3 | 2.4 | % YoY | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| CPI | 0.9 | 0.3 | % MoM | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| core CPI | 2.6 | 2.5 | % YoY | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| core CPI | 0.2 | 0.2 | % MoM | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| PCE inflation | 3.5 | 2.8 | % YoY | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |
| core PCE inflation | 3.2 | 2.9 | % YoY | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |
| unemployment rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | % | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| nonfarm payrolls | 115,000 | 185,000 | jobs | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| wage growth | 3.6 | not provided in source reports | % YoY | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| wage growth | 0.2 | not provided in source reports | % MoM | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| weekly jobless claims | 200,000 | 190,000 | claims | May 7, 2026 | Week ending May 2, 2026 | observed |
| GDP | 2.4 | not provided in source reports | % annualized | April 16, 2026 | Q1 2026 | observed |
| retail sales | 1.7 | not provided in source reports | % MoM | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |
| industrial production | \-0.5 | not provided in source reports | % MoM | April 16, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| ISM manufacturing | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| ISM services | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| consumer confidence | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| housing starts | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| existing home sales | 3.98 | 4.13 | million annualized | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |

## **5\. Federal Reserve, Rates, And Yields**

| item | source-reported value | prior value if provided | unit | release or observation date | period covered | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| federal funds target range | 3.50 to 3.75 | 3.50 to 3.75 | % | April 29, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| latest FOMC decision date | April 29, 2026 | not provided in source reports | date | April 29, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| next scheduled FOMC date | June 2026 | not provided in source reports | date | not provided in source reports | June 2026 | scheduled |
| market-implied policy rate expectation | 3.00 to 3.25 | not provided in source reports | % terminal rate | May 9, 2026 | Terminal 2026 | estimate |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 3.92 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.41 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 30-year Treasury yield | 4.97 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 10-year real yield | 1.96 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.45 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| US Dollar Index | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **6\. Credit, Volatility, And Liquidity Measures**

| measure | source-reported value | prior value if provided | unit | observation date | period covered | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| investment-grade credit spread | 0.79 | 0.78 | % | May 7, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| high-yield credit spread | 2.79 | 2.75 | % | May 7, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| financial conditions index | \-0.51 | \-0.49 | index points | May 6, 2026 | Week ending May 1, 2026 | observed |
| VIX | 17.19 | 17.08 | index points | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| MOVE index | 67.25 | 72.24 | index points | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| money-market fund assets | 7.75 | 7.62 | $ trillion | May 7, 2026 | Week ending May 6, 2026 | observed |
| bank lending or deposit data | 19,019.35 | not provided in source reports | $ billion (deposits) | May 8, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| Treasury market liquidity measure | elevated above historical averages | not provided in source reports | index status | May 2026 | May 2026 | observed |

## **7\. US Equity Observed Data**

| index / group / measure | source-reported value or return | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| S\&P 500 level | 7398.93 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| S\&P 500 return | 9.08% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Nasdaq 100 return | 15.7% | April 2026 | April 30, 2026 | observed |
| Russell 2000 level | 2861.21 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Russell 2000 return | 12.3% | April 2026 | April 30, 2026 | observed |
| value vs growth observed return or spread | IWF 3.81%, IWD 2.06% | YTD | May 7/8, 2026 | observed |
| large vs small observed return or spread | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| market breadth measure (S\&P \> 200-DMA) | 52.98% | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| market breadth measure (S\&P \> 50-DMA) | 51.19% | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| valuation measure (S\&P 500 Fwd P/E) | 21.0 | Forward 12-month | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| earnings growth estimate | 27.7% | Q1 2026 | May 8, 2026 | estimate |
| measured positioning or fund-flow data | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **8\. US Sector And Theme Observed Data**

| sector or theme | source-reported metric | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| technology | return | 15.49% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| semiconductors | return | 9.32% (SOXX) | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| software | return | \-14.04% (IGV) | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| communication services | return | 11.84% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| consumer discretionary | return | 3.48% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| consumer staples | return | 9.88% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| healthcare | return | \-7.64% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| financials | return | \-6.74% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| industrials | return | 11.63% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| energy | return | 23.83% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| materials | return | 12.36% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| utilities | return | 4.98% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| real estate | return | 10.83% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| AI infrastructure / AI capex | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **9\. Bonds And Credit Observed Data**

| asset area or measure | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| Treasury bill yields (1-month) | 3.72% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Treasury bill yields (3-month) | 3.69% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| intermediate Treasury yields (5-year) | 4.04% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| long Treasury yields (30-year) | 4.97% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| TIPS real yields (10-year) | 1.96% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| investment-grade bond yields or spreads | 0.79% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| high-yield bond yields or spreads | 2.79% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| aggregate bond index return or yield | 0.47% (US Aggregate Bond Index) | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |

## **10\. International Observed Data**

| region or country | source-reported metric | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| developed markets ex-US | level | 3076.29 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Europe | return | 5.31% (IEUR) | YTD | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| Japan | return | 12.89% (EWJ) | YTD | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| emerging markets | return | 22.46% (EEM) | YTD | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| China | CPI | 1.0% YoY | March 2026 | April 10, 2026 | observed |
| China | PPI | 0.5% YoY | March 2026 | April 10, 2026 | observed |
| India | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| major central-bank policy dates (BOJ) | Date | June 14-15, 2026 | Scheduled | May 8, 2026 | scheduled |
| major central-bank policy dates (ECB) | Date | June 10-11, 2026 | Scheduled | May 8, 2026 | scheduled |
| currency values or returns | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| major growth or inflation releases | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **11\. Commodities And Currency Observed Data**

| commodity or currency measure | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| WTI crude | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| Brent crude | $100.25 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| natural gas | $2.75 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| gold | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| broad commodity index | 138.40 (BCOM) | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| US Dollar Index | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| copper | $6.23 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| agriculture index if available | 91.83 (S\&P GSCI Agriculture) | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |

## **12\. Time-Stamped News And Policy Facts**

| date/time | event or announcement | entity involved | exact source-reported fact | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| April 29, 2026 | FOMC Meeting | Federal Reserve | FOMC voted 8-4 to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75%. | observed |
| April 29, 2026 | FOMC Dissents | Federal Reserve | Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut. Presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented against language implying an easing bias. | observed |
| May 10, 2026 | Ceasefire Proposal Response | United States, Iran | Iran sent a response to the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal via Pakistani mediators. President Trump rejected the response on social media. | observed |
| May 10, 2026 | Drone Attacks | UAE, Qatar, Kuwait | The UAE shot down two drones. Drones were reported entering airspace off Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. | reported |
| May 9, 2026 | Drone components delivery | Russia, Iran | Russia is sending drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea to help rebuild offensive capabilities. | reported |

## **13\. Scheduled Calendar During The One-Month Window**

| date | scheduled event | entity or publisher | expected release type | forecast or consensus value if provided as of cutoff | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| May 11, 2026 | China PPI | NBS | Monthly Release | 1.5% YoY | scheduled |
| May 12, 2026 | US CPI | BLS | Monthly Release | 0.7% MoM | scheduled |
| May 14, 2026 | US Retail Sales | Census Bureau | Monthly Release | 0.4% MoM | scheduled |
| May 14, 2026 | UK GDP | ONS | Quarterly Release | not provided in source reports | scheduled |
| May 15, 2026 | US Industrial Production | Federal Reserve | Monthly Release | Capacity Util: 75.9% | scheduled |
| May 20, 2026 | FOMC Minutes | Federal Reserve | Meeting Minutes | not provided in source reports | scheduled |
| June 3, 2026 | Beige Book | Federal Reserve | Economic Report | not provided in source reports | scheduled |
| June 10-11, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting | ECB | Rate Decision | not provided in source reports | scheduled |

## **14\. Source-Reported Uncertainties**

| uncertainty | source-reported wording or concise factual paraphrase | source date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| Economic outlook due to war | "Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook." | April 29, 2026 | source\_reported\_uncertainty |
| Ceasefire stability | Uncertainty surrounding Washington's latest proposal to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has yet to respond to. | May 8, 2026 | source\_reported\_uncertainty |

## **15\. Missing Or Not-Provided Data**

| data area | missing item | note |
| :---- | :---- | :---- |
| US Equity Observed Data | large vs small observed return or spread | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | measured positioning or fund-flow data | not provided in source reports |
| US Sector And Theme | AI infrastructure / AI capex | not provided in source reports |
| International | India index | not provided in source reports |
| Commodities | WTI crude | not provided in source reports |
| Commodities | Gold | not provided in source reports |
| Commodities | US Dollar Index | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | ISM manufacturing | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | ISM services | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | consumer confidence | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | housing starts | not provided in source reports |

## **16\. Final Neutrality Statement**

This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.

## Full-Universe Trailing Returns

This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-05-10
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-05-10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-08 | 0.07% | 0.26% | 1.77% | 3.90% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-08 | 2.35% | 8.56% | 8.86% | 32.20% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-08 | 2.13% | 8.30% | 9.00% | 32.09% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-08 | 5.50% | 16.39% | 14.41% | 46.45% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-08 | 2.91% | 10.73% | 2.75% | 32.36% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.32% | 5.43% | 14.61% | 28.63% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.62% | 5.02% | 14.05% | 27.34% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.75% | 8.75% | 17.05% | 43.03% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.63% | 6.17% | 20.48% | 44.33% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-08 | -0.75% | 3.47% | 20.31% | 27.63% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-08 | -2.06% | -1.92% | 2.72% | 2.22% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-08 | 5.86% | 14.56% | 19.90% | 40.06% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 8.43% | 23.07% | 19.11% | 62.23% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.19% | 2.62% | 3.89% | 21.82% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 1.32% | 6.48% | 1.00% | 19.70% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.01% | 2.20% | 11.65% | 6.92% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -1.15% | -2.59% | -1.76% | 10.07% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -1.31% | 0.93% | -2.44% | 4.34% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.14% | 0.98% | 13.02% | 28.95% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -5.35% | -2.18% | 25.14% | 39.49% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.47% | -0.71% | 20.24% | 24.39% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -3.93% | -4.77% | 1.20% | 14.61% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.20% | 3.71% | 9.58% | 10.41% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.23% | 0.00% | 0.23% | 4.56% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.55% | -0.11% | -1.70% | 3.38% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.04% | 0.85% | 1.55% | 5.05% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-08 | 0.55% | 0.39% | 0.86% | 7.15% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-08 | 0.10% | 0.75% | 2.38% | 8.15% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.28% | 0.19% | 0.99% | 5.53% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 3.07% | 4.56% | 17.60% | 36.13% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 2.63% | 6.68% | 11.66% | 34.52% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 1.11% | 1.22% | 10.44% | 22.74% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 4.44% | 4.64% | 14.38% | 33.99% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 1.04% | 1.99% | -8.75% | 11.95% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 1.47% | 1.01% | -7.96% | -4.87% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-08 | 2.48% | -0.77% | 14.72% | 41.58% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-08 | -1.63% | 6.48% | 36.16% | 47.04% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-08 | 11.13% | 29.68% | 58.39% | 154.38% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-08 | 5.22% | 22.07% | -18.46% | -8.57% | pass |

## Options

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Base Instructions prompt.md

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make one-shot market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.

Your objective is to choose the single allowed option you expect to have the highest total return over the round horizon, based only on the briefing and option list below. The official leaderboard ranks each model by the realized return of its selected option relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official one-shot leaderboard.

Your selected option is scored by its realized percentage return over the round window. Alpha is selected option return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

Use only the information in this prompt. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, or rely on information after the research cutoff. If your prior knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must select exactly one option. Do not allocate across multiple options. Do not hedge. CASH is a valid option.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "selected_option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- selected_option_id must be exactly one ID from the allowed option list.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best single choice among the allowed options for this round.
- rationale_summary is required and should be 1-3 concise sentences.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the selected option to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup choice, second-best option, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.
- Do not recommend a portfolio.
- Do not choose multiple options.

Round Manifest manifest.yaml

round_id: CB-2026-05-10-1M
title: CapitalBench May 10 2026 One-Month Round
description: One-month CapitalBench official evaluation round using the frozen May 10, 2026 briefing.
decision_date: '2026-05-10'
decision_deadline: '2026-05-11T01:00:00Z'
horizon: one month
entry_rule: Use Tiingo EOD adjusted close from the last trading close before the decision deadline; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use Tiingo EOD adjusted close on the exit_date for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-05-08'
exit_date: '2026-06-10'
created_at: '2026-05-10T20:32:48.646064+00:00'
notes: Research cutoff is 2026-05-10T22:23:19Z. The decision deadline is after the research cutoff. Because the decision occurred on Sunday May 10, 2026, the entry price date is the prior trading close, Friday May 8, 2026.

Briefing briefing.md

# **CapitalBench Briefing**

## **1\. Research Cutoff**

The exact research cutoff is 2026-05-10T22:23:19Z (May 10, 2026, 6:23:19 PM EDT, America/Toronto).

## **2\. Fact-Only Statement**

This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.

## **3\. Data Availability Notes**

| data area | status | factual note |
| :---- | :---- | :---- |
| inflation | provided | March 2026 CPI and PCE data observed; April CPI scheduled. |
| labor market | provided | April 2026 nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, and initial claims observed. |
| growth/activity | provided | Q1 2026 GDP and March industrial production observed. |
| consumer | provided | March 2026 retail sales observed. |
| housing | provided | March 2026 existing and new home sales observed. |
| Federal Reserve policy | provided | April 2026 FOMC target range and votes observed. |
| Treasury yields | provided | Yield curve observed through May 7, 2026\. |
| real rates | provided | TIPS yields observed through May 7, 2026\. |
| breakeven inflation | provided | 10-year breakeven inflation observed. |
| US dollar | not provided | not provided in source reports. |
| volatility | provided | VIX and MOVE index levels observed through May 8, 2026\. |
| credit spreads | provided | Investment grade and high yield OAS observed through May 7, 2026\. |
| broad US equities | provided | S\&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000 levels, breadth, and factor spreads observed. |
| US sectors | provided | YTD returns for 11 GICS sectors, semiconductors, and software observed through May 8, 2026\. |
| international equities | provided | MSCI EAFE, Japan, Europe, and Emerging Markets index levels observed through May 8, 2026\. |
| commodities | provided | Brent, Copper, Natural Gas, broad, and agriculture indices observed. |
| AI/technology | provided | FactSet Q1 earnings and margins for S\&P 500 observed. |
| bonds and credit | provided | Aggregate bond index return observed. |
| bank lending or deposit data | provided | Total deposits at commercial banks observed. |
| Treasury market liquidity | provided | US Government Securities Liquidity Index status observed. |
| scheduled calendar | provided | FOMC minutes, Beige Book, and other macroeconomic release dates observed. |

## **4\. Macro Release Table**

| indicator | source-reported value | prior value | unit | release or observation date | period covered | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| CPI | 3.3 | 2.4 | % YoY | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| CPI | 0.9 | 0.3 | % MoM | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| core CPI | 2.6 | 2.5 | % YoY | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| core CPI | 0.2 | 0.2 | % MoM | April 10, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| PCE inflation | 3.5 | 2.8 | % YoY | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |
| core PCE inflation | 3.2 | 2.9 | % YoY | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |
| unemployment rate | 4.3 | 4.3 | % | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| nonfarm payrolls | 115,000 | 185,000 | jobs | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| wage growth | 3.6 | not provided in source reports | % YoY | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| wage growth | 0.2 | not provided in source reports | % MoM | May 8, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| weekly jobless claims | 200,000 | 190,000 | claims | May 7, 2026 | Week ending May 2, 2026 | observed |
| GDP | 2.4 | not provided in source reports | % annualized | April 16, 2026 | Q1 2026 | observed |
| retail sales | 1.7 | not provided in source reports | % MoM | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |
| industrial production | \-0.5 | not provided in source reports | % MoM | April 16, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| ISM manufacturing | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| ISM services | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| consumer confidence | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| housing starts | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| existing home sales | 3.98 | 4.13 | million annualized | not provided in source reports | March 2026 | observed |

## **5\. Federal Reserve, Rates, And Yields**

| item | source-reported value | prior value if provided | unit | release or observation date | period covered | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| federal funds target range | 3.50 to 3.75 | 3.50 to 3.75 | % | April 29, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| latest FOMC decision date | April 29, 2026 | not provided in source reports | date | April 29, 2026 | April 2026 | observed |
| next scheduled FOMC date | June 2026 | not provided in source reports | date | not provided in source reports | June 2026 | scheduled |
| market-implied policy rate expectation | 3.00 to 3.25 | not provided in source reports | % terminal rate | May 9, 2026 | Terminal 2026 | estimate |
| 2-year Treasury yield | 3.92 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.41 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 30-year Treasury yield | 4.97 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 10-year real yield | 1.96 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| 10-year breakeven inflation | 2.45 | not provided in source reports | % | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| US Dollar Index | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **6\. Credit, Volatility, And Liquidity Measures**

| measure | source-reported value | prior value if provided | unit | observation date | period covered | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| investment-grade credit spread | 0.79 | 0.78 | % | May 7, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| high-yield credit spread | 2.79 | 2.75 | % | May 7, 2026 | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| financial conditions index | \-0.51 | \-0.49 | index points | May 6, 2026 | Week ending May 1, 2026 | observed |
| VIX | 17.19 | 17.08 | index points | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| MOVE index | 67.25 | 72.24 | index points | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| money-market fund assets | 7.75 | 7.62 | $ trillion | May 7, 2026 | Week ending May 6, 2026 | observed |
| bank lending or deposit data | 19,019.35 | not provided in source reports | $ billion (deposits) | May 8, 2026 | March 2026 | observed |
| Treasury market liquidity measure | elevated above historical averages | not provided in source reports | index status | May 2026 | May 2026 | observed |

## **7\. US Equity Observed Data**

| index / group / measure | source-reported value or return | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| S\&P 500 level | 7398.93 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| S\&P 500 return | 9.08% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Nasdaq 100 return | 15.7% | April 2026 | April 30, 2026 | observed |
| Russell 2000 level | 2861.21 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Russell 2000 return | 12.3% | April 2026 | April 30, 2026 | observed |
| value vs growth observed return or spread | IWF 3.81%, IWD 2.06% | YTD | May 7/8, 2026 | observed |
| large vs small observed return or spread | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| market breadth measure (S\&P \> 200-DMA) | 52.98% | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| market breadth measure (S\&P \> 50-DMA) | 51.19% | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| valuation measure (S\&P 500 Fwd P/E) | 21.0 | Forward 12-month | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| earnings growth estimate | 27.7% | Q1 2026 | May 8, 2026 | estimate |
| measured positioning or fund-flow data | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **8\. US Sector And Theme Observed Data**

| sector or theme | source-reported metric | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| technology | return | 15.49% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| semiconductors | return | 9.32% (SOXX) | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| software | return | \-14.04% (IGV) | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| communication services | return | 11.84% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| consumer discretionary | return | 3.48% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| consumer staples | return | 9.88% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| healthcare | return | \-7.64% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| financials | return | \-6.74% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| industrials | return | 11.63% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| energy | return | 23.83% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| materials | return | 12.36% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| utilities | return | 4.98% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| real estate | return | 10.83% | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| AI infrastructure / AI capex | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **9\. Bonds And Credit Observed Data**

| asset area or measure | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| Treasury bill yields (1-month) | 3.72% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Treasury bill yields (3-month) | 3.69% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| intermediate Treasury yields (5-year) | 4.04% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| long Treasury yields (30-year) | 4.97% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| TIPS real yields (10-year) | 1.96% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| investment-grade bond yields or spreads | 0.79% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| high-yield bond yields or spreads | 2.79% | May 7, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| aggregate bond index return or yield | 0.47% (US Aggregate Bond Index) | YTD | May 8, 2026 | observed |

## **10\. International Observed Data**

| region or country | source-reported metric | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| developed markets ex-US | level | 3076.29 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| Europe | return | 5.31% (IEUR) | YTD | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| Japan | return | 12.89% (EWJ) | YTD | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| emerging markets | return | 22.46% (EEM) | YTD | May 7, 2026 | observed |
| China | CPI | 1.0% YoY | March 2026 | April 10, 2026 | observed |
| China | PPI | 0.5% YoY | March 2026 | April 10, 2026 | observed |
| India | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| major central-bank policy dates (BOJ) | Date | June 14-15, 2026 | Scheduled | May 8, 2026 | scheduled |
| major central-bank policy dates (ECB) | Date | June 10-11, 2026 | Scheduled | May 8, 2026 | scheduled |
| currency values or returns | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| major growth or inflation releases | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |

## **11\. Commodities And Currency Observed Data**

| commodity or currency measure | source-reported value | period covered | observation date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| WTI crude | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| Brent crude | $100.25 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| natural gas | $2.75 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| gold | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| broad commodity index | 138.40 (BCOM) | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| US Dollar Index | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided in source reports | not provided |
| copper | $6.23 | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |
| agriculture index if available | 91.83 (S\&P GSCI Agriculture) | May 8, 2026 | May 8, 2026 | observed |

## **12\. Time-Stamped News And Policy Facts**

| date/time | event or announcement | entity involved | exact source-reported fact | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| April 29, 2026 | FOMC Meeting | Federal Reserve | FOMC voted 8-4 to hold rates at 3.5% to 3.75%. | observed |
| April 29, 2026 | FOMC Dissents | Federal Reserve | Fed Governor Stephen I. Miran dissented, preferring a 25 basis point cut. Presidents Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan dissented against language implying an easing bias. | observed |
| May 10, 2026 | Ceasefire Proposal Response | United States, Iran | Iran sent a response to the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal via Pakistani mediators. President Trump rejected the response on social media. | observed |
| May 10, 2026 | Drone Attacks | UAE, Qatar, Kuwait | The UAE shot down two drones. Drones were reported entering airspace off Qatar, the UAE, and Kuwait. | reported |
| May 9, 2026 | Drone components delivery | Russia, Iran | Russia is sending drone components to Iran via the Caspian Sea to help rebuild offensive capabilities. | reported |

## **13\. Scheduled Calendar During The One-Month Window**

| date | scheduled event | entity or publisher | expected release type | forecast or consensus value if provided as of cutoff | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| May 11, 2026 | China PPI | NBS | Monthly Release | 1.5% YoY | scheduled |
| May 12, 2026 | US CPI | BLS | Monthly Release | 0.7% MoM | scheduled |
| May 14, 2026 | US Retail Sales | Census Bureau | Monthly Release | 0.4% MoM | scheduled |
| May 14, 2026 | UK GDP | ONS | Quarterly Release | not provided in source reports | scheduled |
| May 15, 2026 | US Industrial Production | Federal Reserve | Monthly Release | Capacity Util: 75.9% | scheduled |
| May 20, 2026 | FOMC Minutes | Federal Reserve | Meeting Minutes | not provided in source reports | scheduled |
| June 3, 2026 | Beige Book | Federal Reserve | Economic Report | not provided in source reports | scheduled |
| June 10-11, 2026 | Monetary Policy Meeting | ECB | Rate Decision | not provided in source reports | scheduled |

## **14\. Source-Reported Uncertainties**

| uncertainty | source-reported wording or concise factual paraphrase | source date | status |
| :---- | :---- | :---- | :---- |
| Economic outlook due to war | "Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook." | April 29, 2026 | source\_reported\_uncertainty |
| Ceasefire stability | Uncertainty surrounding Washington's latest proposal to Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran has yet to respond to. | May 8, 2026 | source\_reported\_uncertainty |

## **15\. Missing Or Not-Provided Data**

| data area | missing item | note |
| :---- | :---- | :---- |
| US Equity Observed Data | large vs small observed return or spread | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | measured positioning or fund-flow data | not provided in source reports |
| US Sector And Theme | AI infrastructure / AI capex | not provided in source reports |
| International | India index | not provided in source reports |
| Commodities | WTI crude | not provided in source reports |
| Commodities | Gold | not provided in source reports |
| Commodities | US Dollar Index | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | ISM manufacturing | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | ISM services | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | consumer confidence | not provided in source reports |
| US Equity Observed Data | housing starts | not provided in source reports |

## **16\. Final Neutrality Statement**

This briefing contains factual inputs only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options.

Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md

This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-05-10
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-05-10 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-05-08 | 0.07% | 0.26% | 1.77% | 3.90% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-05-08 | 2.35% | 8.56% | 8.86% | 32.20% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-05-08 | 2.13% | 8.30% | 9.00% | 32.09% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-05-08 | 5.50% | 16.39% | 14.41% | 46.45% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-05-08 | 2.91% | 10.73% | 2.75% | 32.36% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.32% | 5.43% | 14.61% | 28.63% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.62% | 5.02% | 14.05% | 27.34% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.75% | 8.75% | 17.05% | 43.03% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-05-08 | 1.63% | 6.17% | 20.48% | 44.33% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-08 | -0.75% | 3.47% | 20.31% | 27.63% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-08 | -2.06% | -1.92% | 2.72% | 2.22% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-05-08 | 5.86% | 14.56% | 19.90% | 40.06% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 8.43% | 23.07% | 19.11% | 62.23% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.19% | 2.62% | 3.89% | 21.82% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 1.32% | 6.48% | 1.00% | 19.70% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.01% | 2.20% | 11.65% | 6.92% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -1.15% | -2.59% | -1.76% | 10.07% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -1.31% | 0.93% | -2.44% | 4.34% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.14% | 0.98% | 13.02% | 28.95% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -5.35% | -2.18% | 25.14% | 39.49% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.47% | -0.71% | 20.24% | 24.39% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | -3.93% | -4.77% | 1.20% | 14.61% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-05-08 | 0.20% | 3.71% | 9.58% | 10.41% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.23% | 0.00% | 0.23% | 4.56% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.55% | -0.11% | -1.70% | 3.38% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.04% | 0.85% | 1.55% | 5.05% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-05-08 | 0.55% | 0.39% | 0.86% | 7.15% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-05-08 | 0.10% | 0.75% | 2.38% | 8.15% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-05-08 | 0.28% | 0.19% | 0.99% | 5.53% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 3.07% | 4.56% | 17.60% | 36.13% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 2.63% | 6.68% | 11.66% | 34.52% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 1.11% | 1.22% | 10.44% | 22.74% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 4.44% | 4.64% | 14.38% | 33.99% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 1.04% | 1.99% | -8.75% | 11.95% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-05-08 | 1.47% | 1.01% | -7.96% | -4.87% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-05-08 | 2.48% | -0.77% | 14.72% | 41.58% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-05-08 | -1.63% | 6.48% | 36.16% | 47.04% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-08 | 11.13% | 29.68% | 58.39% | 154.38% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-05-08 | 5.22% | 22.07% | -18.46% | -8.57% | pass |

Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Source Options YAML options.yaml

options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

Round Hashes hashes.json

{
  "algorithm": "sha256",
  "files": {
    "briefing.md": "cea86d1651e4dd4ed86f33bfe3e4fd5d4ff2a6fa3b068c611c7aa4fc01844479",
    "manifest.yaml": "6e2a34c3e1a363db1dcc89476a02867c0ce47fbe5110aa85782780f4f193b860",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "5df42a20f8737269af41183cf74d4497fc521a8dc4a3b010357b514dd1149b1e",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "fecfc3b0246786c2d25772808fd421d28c149b87c2bc33ebde572f02ac0a4535",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "f8591c9853b2636007ac0791a1a1c4bc400e54113f5eacee27ca6050f08ddc49",
    "options.yaml": "451c26dbfd8a498bef50df205d8c7489acf8edde5c48c21e132bda42e47cf056",
    "prompt.md": "3e45c33a3f6e05123183178793e55b179febd00a121af2f63ba41b825981c998"
  }
}

Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 4 model calls

Claude Opus 4.7

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-10-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed selected_option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE

Gemini 3.1 Pro

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-10-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed selected_option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE

GPT-5.5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-10-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed selected_option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE

Grok 4.3

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-05-10-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed selected_option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE

Parsed provider responses

Model Outputs

These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

Portfolio Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 100%

Confidence: 0.58
Run Type: official

Rationale

Semiconductors show dominant momentum (+29.7% 30d, +154% 1y) with strong Q1 earnings growth (27.7%) and AI capex tailwinds, while the Fed remains on hold with easing bias and credit/volatility conditions stay benign. The sector's trend persistence combined with broad risk-on positioning (Russell 2000 +12.3% April, EM +22% YTD) supports continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 100% - Semiconductors show dominant momentum (+29.7% 30d, +154% 1y) with strong Q1 earnings growth (27.7%) and AI capex tailwinds, while the Fed remains on hold with easing bias and credit/volatility conditions stay benign. The sector's trend persistence combined with broad risk-on positioning (Russell 2000 +12.3% April, EM +22% YTD) supports continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.

Key Risks

Middle East escalation (Iran ceasefire rejection, drone activity, Strait of Hormuz risk) could spike oil and crush high-beta tech
Hot March CPI (3.3% YoY, 0.9% MoM) and upcoming April CPI print could push real yields higher, compressing semiconductor multiples
Weak April payrolls (115k) signal slowing growth that could undermine cyclical chip demand
Extended valuations and crowded positioning after parabolic run make sector vulnerable to sharp factor rotation
Concentration risk in a few mega-cap names with binary earnings/guidance sensitivity

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.58,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Middle East escalation (Iran ceasefire rejection, drone activity, Strait of Hormuz risk) could spike oil and crush high-beta tech",
    "Hot March CPI (3.3% YoY, 0.9% MoM) and upcoming April CPI print could push real yields higher, compressing semiconductor multiples",
    "Weak April payrolls (115k) signal slowing growth that could undermine cyclical chip demand",
    "Extended valuations and crowded positioning after parabolic run make sector vulnerable to sharp factor rotation",
    "Concentration risk in a few mega-cap names with binary earnings/guidance sensitivity"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Semiconductors show dominant momentum (+29.7% 30d, +154% 1y) with strong Q1 earnings growth (27.7%) and AI capex tailwinds, while the Fed remains on hold with easing bias and credit/volatility conditions stay benign. The sector's trend persistence combined with broad risk-on positioning (Russell 2000 +12.3% April, EM +22% YTD) supports continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-10-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "selected_option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 16671,
    "latency_seconds": 7.590345451142639,
    "output_tokens": 468,
    "total_tokens": 17139
  }
}

Google

Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

Portfolio Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 100%

Confidence: 0.60
Run Type: official

Rationale

Semiconductors have exhibited exceptional momentum, returning over 29% in the last 30 days and 58% over the last 6 months. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the sector's strong trend and potential AI-driven earnings growth make it a compelling candidate for continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 100% - Semiconductors have exhibited exceptional momentum, returning over 29% in the last 30 days and 58% over the last 6 months. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the sector's strong trend and potential AI-driven earnings growth make it a compelling candidate for continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.

Key Risks

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere could disrupt global semiconductor supply chains.
A sudden spike in long-term Treasury yields could disproportionately compress valuations for high-growth technology stocks.
Extreme recent outperformance leaves the sector vulnerable to sharp mean-reversion or profit-taking.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.6,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East or elsewhere could disrupt global semiconductor supply chains.",
    "A sudden spike in long-term Treasury yields could disproportionately compress valuations for high-growth technology stocks.",
    "Extreme recent outperformance leaves the sector vulnerable to sharp mean-reversion or profit-taking."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
  "provider": "google",
  "rationale_summary": "Semiconductors have exhibited exceptional momentum, returning over 29% in the last 30 days and 58% over the last 6 months. Despite broader macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, the sector's strong trend and potential AI-driven earnings growth make it a compelling candidate for continued outperformance over a one-month horizon.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-10-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "selected_option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 11816,
    "latency_seconds": 11.226246919017285,
    "output_tokens": 245,
    "reasoning_tokens": 808,
    "total_tokens": 12869
  }
}

OpenAI

GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

Portfolio Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 100%

Confidence: 0.34
Run Type: official

Rationale

Semiconductors show the strongest cross-horizon price momentum in the allowed universe, with very large 7-day, 30-day, 6-month, and 1-year trailing returns. With broad equity risk appetite still positive, volatility contained, and reported S&P 500 earnings growth strong, the highest-beta AI/technology exposure has a plausible chance to remain the top one-month performer.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 100% - Semiconductors show the strongest cross-horizon price momentum in the allowed universe, with very large 7-day, 30-day, 6-month, and 1-year trailing returns. With broad equity risk appetite still positive, volatility contained, and reported S&P 500 earnings growth strong, the highest-beta AI/technology exposure has a plausible chance to remain the top one-month performer.

Key Risks

A hot May 12 CPI release could push yields higher and compress high-multiple semiconductor valuations.
The recent 29.68% 30-day gain creates elevated reversal or profit-taking risk over a one-month horizon.
Middle East escalation or oil-price-driven inflation could trigger a risk-off rotation away from growth equities.
Any disappointment in AI-capex expectations or mega-cap technology guidance could disproportionately hurt semiconductor stocks.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.34,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A hot May 12 CPI release could push yields higher and compress high-multiple semiconductor valuations.",
    "The recent 29.68% 30-day gain creates elevated reversal or profit-taking risk over a one-month horizon.",
    "Middle East escalation or oil-price-driven inflation could trigger a risk-off rotation away from growth equities.",
    "Any disappointment in AI-capex expectations or mega-cap technology guidance could disproportionately hurt semiconductor stocks."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Semiconductors show the strongest cross-horizon price momentum in the allowed universe, with very large 7-day, 30-day, 6-month, and 1-year trailing returns. With broad equity risk appetite still positive, volatility contained, and reported S&P 500 earnings growth strong, the highest-beta AI/technology exposure has a plausible chance to remain the top one-month performer.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-10-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "selected_option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 10710,
    "latency_seconds": 14.47066447371617,
    "output_tokens": 398,
    "reasoning_tokens": 164,
    "total_tokens": 11108
  }
}

xAI

Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

Portfolio Semiconductors (SMH)

Semiconductors (SMH) 100%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Semiconductors show the strongest recent 30-day momentum at 29.68% amid sustained AI-driven demand and earnings growth estimates of 27.7% for Q1. Weakening labor data and geopolitical tensions favor high-growth tech themes over cyclicals or defensives in the one-month window.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 100% - Semiconductors show the strongest recent 30-day momentum at 29.68% amid sustained AI-driven demand and earnings growth estimates of 27.7% for Q1. Weakening labor data and geopolitical tensions favor high-growth tech themes over cyclicals or defensives in the one-month window.

Key Risks

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East disrupting semiconductor supply chains
Sticky inflation readings on May 12 CPI release prompting delayed rate cuts
Potential rotation out of momentum stocks if Q1 earnings disappoint

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East disrupting semiconductor supply chains",
    "Sticky inflation readings on May 12 CPI release prompting delayed rate cuts",
    "Potential rotation out of momentum stocks if Q1 earnings disappoint"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "Semiconductors show the strongest recent 30-day momentum at 29.68% amid sustained AI-driven demand and earnings growth estimates of 27.7% for Q1. Weakening labor data and geopolitical tensions favor high-growth tech themes over cyclicals or defensives in the one-month window.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-05-10-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "selected_option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 10761,
    "latency_seconds": 7.633347692899406,
    "output_tokens": 192,
    "reasoning_tokens": 560,
    "total_tokens": 11513
  }
}

Public model run

Model Portfolios

This round used the original single-selection format. Each valid allocation is displayed as a one-holding 100% portfolio while the validated JSON remains unchanged. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.

Model	Provider	Portfolio	Confidence	Protocol
Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7	Anthropic	Semiconductors (SMH)100%	0.58	Single-allocation round
Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro	Google	Semiconductors (SMH)100%	0.60	Single-allocation round
GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5	OpenAI	Semiconductors (SMH)100%	0.34	Single-allocation round
Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3	xAI	Semiconductors (SMH)100%	0.55	Single-allocation round

Pricing

Scoring Prices

Entry and exit prices are shown for the completed close-to-close scoring window.


Broad Commodities (PDBC)	PDBC	2026-05-08	18.07	2026-06-10	17.43	-3.54%	Adjusted close
Cash / Do Not Invest	CASH	2026-05-08	1.00	2026-06-10	1.00	0.00%	Adjusted close
China Equities (MCHI)	MCHI	2026-05-08	58.32	2026-06-10	54.11	-7.22%	Adjusted close
Communication Services Sector (XLC)	XLC	2026-05-08	116.94	2026-06-10	111.01	-5.07%	Adjusted close
Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY)	XLY	2026-05-08	120.20	2026-06-10	113.49	-5.58%	Adjusted close
Consumer Staples Sector (XLP)	XLP	2026-05-08	84.18	2026-06-10	85.49	1.56%	Adjusted close
Developed Markets ex-US (VEA)	VEA	2026-05-08	70.83	2026-06-10	68.81	-2.85%	Adjusted close
Emerging Markets (VWO)	VWO	2026-05-08	60.54	2026-06-10	57.72	-4.66%	Adjusted close
Energy Sector (XLE)	XLE	2026-05-08	55.70	2026-06-10	58.25	4.58%	Adjusted close
Europe Equities (VGK)	VGK	2026-05-08	88.12	2026-06-10	86.69	-1.62%	Adjusted close
Financials Sector (XLF)	XLF	2026-05-08	51.24	2026-06-10	52.23	1.93%	Adjusted close
Gold (IAU)	IAU	2026-05-08	88.87	2026-06-10	76.79	-13.59%	Adjusted close
Healthcare Sector (XLV)	XLV	2026-05-08	143.49	2026-06-10	152.85	6.52%	Adjusted close
High Yield Corporate Bonds (HYG)	HYG	2026-05-08	79.73	2026-06-10	79.47	-0.33%	Adjusted close
India Equities (INDA)	INDA	2026-05-08	49.84	2026-06-10	47.30	-5.10%	Adjusted close
Industrials Sector (XLI)	XLI	2026-05-08	173.20	2026-06-10	169.66	-2.04%	Adjusted close
Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds (IEF)	IEF	2026-05-08	94.64	2026-06-10	93.69	-1.01%	Adjusted close
Investment Grade Corporate Bonds (LQD)	LQD	2026-05-08	108.79	2026-06-10	108.16	-0.58%	Adjusted close
Japan Equities (EWJ)	EWJ	2026-05-08	92.22	2026-06-10	89.29	-3.18%	Adjusted close
Long-Term US Treasury Bonds (TLT)	TLT	2026-05-08	85.74	2026-06-10	84.88	-1.01%	Adjusted close
Materials Sector (XLB)	XLB	2026-05-08	51.59	2026-06-10	49.60	-3.86%	Adjusted close
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)	QQQ	2026-05-08	711.23	2026-06-10	693.69	-2.47%	Adjusted close
Real Estate Sector (XLRE)	XLRE	2026-05-08	44.41	2026-06-10	44.99	1.31%	Adjusted close
S&P 500 (SPY)	SPY	2026-05-08	737.62	2026-06-10	725.43	-1.65%	Adjusted close
Semiconductors (SMH)	SMH	2026-05-08	566.54	2026-06-10	570.91	0.77%	Adjusted close
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL)	BIL	2026-05-08	91.19	2026-06-10	91.47	0.31%	Adjusted close
Software (IGV)	IGV	2026-05-08	91.15	2026-06-10	91.58	0.47%	Adjusted close
Technology Sector (XLK)	XLK	2026-05-08	175.52	2026-06-10	176.63	0.63%	Adjusted close
Total US Stock Market (VTI)	VTI	2026-05-08	362.87	2026-06-10	358.04	-1.33%	Adjusted close
Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIP)	TIP	2026-05-08	110.12	2026-06-10	109.21	-0.83%	Adjusted close
US Aggregate Bond Market (AGG)	AGG	2026-05-08	98.85	2026-06-10	98.31	-0.54%	Adjusted close
US Dividend Equities (SCHD)	SCHD	2026-05-08	31.62	2026-06-10	32.26	2.02%	Adjusted close
US Large-Cap Growth (IWF)	IWF	2026-05-08	123.54	2026-06-10	119.69	-3.12%	Adjusted close
US Large-Cap Value (IWD)	IWD	2026-05-08	233.90	2026-06-10	235.24	0.57%	Adjusted close
US Low Volatility Equities (SPLV)	SPLV	2026-05-08	72.50	2026-06-10	73.89	1.92%	Adjusted close
US Mid-Cap Stocks (IJH)	IJH	2026-05-08	73.99	2026-06-10	73.65	-0.46%	Adjusted close
US Momentum Equities (MTUM)	MTUM	2026-05-08	301.80	2026-06-10	304.92	1.03%	Adjusted close
US Small-Cap Stocks (IWM)	IWM	2026-05-08	284.17	2026-06-10	282.05	-0.75%	Adjusted close
US Small-Cap Value (IWN)	IWN	2026-05-08	211.63	2026-06-10	210.92	-0.34%	Adjusted close
Utilities Sector (XLU)	XLU	2026-05-08	44.72	2026-06-10	44.00	-1.61%	Adjusted close

Audit

Published Hashes

Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.


briefing.md	cea86d1651e4...01844479
manifest.yaml	6e2a34c3e1a3...f193b860
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv	5df42a20f873...d1149b1e
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json	fecfc3b02467...ac0a4535
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md	f8591c9853b2...f08ddc49
options.yaml	451c26dbfd8a...e47cf056
prompt.md	3e45c33a3f6e...5981c998