AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Risk-seeking 76.6/100 As of August 23, 2026. Broad risk seeking Model Agreement Tight 4.4 point dispersion Insight Models missed the monthly oracle asset The hindsight best asset was Ethereum ETF (ETHA) at +29.27%. 0 of 7 models held it, with +0.00% average allocation. Crowded Position S&P 500 20.6% 7 models hold SPY Biggest Shift S&P 500 up 8.6 pp vs prior weekly round Open Portfolio Leader Gemini 3.1 Pro currently leads at 1.6% interim result, not yet scored Latest Weekly Grok 4.5 led 2.9% vs S&P 0.4% Full Weekly History Claude Opus 5 leads score 9.8 across 8/46
Data Prices Aug 20 114/114 audited

Weekly comparison set

Weekly Set: Jul 8, 2026

Weekly comparison set that starts when Grok 4.5 joins the weekly benchmark roster.

Qualified Comparison Set

Fairness Scope

Every ranked model in this set is scored only on rounds that all 7 listed models completed. If one model misses a resolved round, that round is excluded from this set for everyone.

All comparison sets
Shared rounds8 Models7 Threshold6 StatusQualified Comparison Set
Equal-run benchmark

Weekly Qualified Comparison Set

Every ranked model in this set completed the same 8 weekly rounds.

8 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-07-20-1W
Shared resolved rounds

CapitalBench Score

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3
Gemini 3.1 Pro
Grok 4.5
GPT-5.5
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Fable 5
Claude Opus 4.7
S&P 500
Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. hindsight best asset

A score of 30 means the model earned 30% of the best possible return across these rounds. Calculation

Grok 4.3 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds
13.4
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google · 8/8 scored rounds
10.6
Grok 4.5 xAI · 8/8 scored rounds
5.1
GPT-5.5 OpenAI · 8/8 scored rounds
3.1
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
-1.5
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
-3.5
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic · 8/8 scored rounds
-6.3
S&P 500 S&P 500 · 8/8 scored rounds
-5.2
Max possible Hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio
What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio. 100.0
8 shared resolved rounds7 equal-run models rankedQualified at 6+ shared roundsNewest included round: CB-2026-07-20-1W
Return context

Average Return Details

Average portfolio return across the same finished rounds.

xAI Grok 4.3
1.24%
Google Gemini 3.1 Pro
0.98%
xAI Grok 4.5
0.47%
OpenAI GPT-5.5
0.29%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8
-0.14%
Anthropic Claude Fable 5
-0.33%
Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7
-0.58%
S&P S&P 500
-0.48%
MAX Max possible What is this? Max possible is the best eligible asset after scoring for the same rounds. It is a hindsight ceiling, not a model portfolio.
9.22%
Excluded for fairness: CB-2026-07-21-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-22-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-23-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-24-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-27-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-28-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-29-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-30-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-31-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-08-04-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-08-05-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7 Fairness rule: every ranked model completed every included round. A missed round is excluded from this set for everyone.
Risk and return

Who earned more return for the risk they took?

Average realized return and frozen portfolio risk across the same 8 shared weekly rounds.

Risk and return for models in this comparison setAverage frozen portfolio allocation risk is plotted horizontally and average realized return is plotted vertically across 8 shared rounds.-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%5060708090CapitalBench allocation riskAverage returnS&P 500Beat S&P with lower allocation riskGrok 4.3Gemini 3.1Grok 4.5GPT-5.5Opus 4.8Fable 5Opus 4.7
Risk and return for models in this comparison setAverage frozen portfolio allocation risk is plotted horizontally and average realized return is plotted vertically across 8 shared rounds.-1.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%5060708090CapitalBench allocation riskAverage returnS&P 500Grok 4.3Gemini 3.1Grok 4.5GPT-5.5Opus 4.8Fable 5Opus 4.7
Grok 4.3xAI
+1.24%average return71.5/100Risk-seeking+1.71 ppversus S&P 50064.3-90.5risk range

Return leaderGrok 4.3 led the models at +1.24% average return with a 71.5/100 risk score.

Benchmark testNo model beat the S&P 500 while taking the same or less allocation risk in this set.
Compare model groups

How do these results compare?

Grok 4.3 ranks first in both groups. The groups have no completed rounds in common. Jul 24 Weekly includes 8 more rounds, while Jul 8 Weekly includes 8 more rounds. Claude Opus 4.7 appears only in Jul 8 Weekly. Claude Opus 5, GPT-5.6 Sol appear only in Jul 24 Weekly.

6models in both 0rounds used by both Changedchange in order No top model changed

Jul 24 Weekly is the main published ranking. Jul 8 Weekly also has enough rounds, so compare them to see whether the results hold across different model groups.

Compare these groups
Roster

Models In This Set

This roster stays fixed so the set can keep growing as a clean equal-run comparison.

Anthropic Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

8 shared rounds in this set Anthropic Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

8 shared rounds in this set Anthropic Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

8 shared rounds in this set Google Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

8 shared rounds in this set OpenAI GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

8 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

8 shared rounds in this set xAI Grok 4.5

xai-grok-4-5

8 shared rounds in this set
Round audit

Included And Excluded Rounds

Included rounds count toward the score. Excluded rounds are resolved rounds after the set started where at least one set model was missing.

Included rounds CB-2026-07-08-1W, CB-2026-07-09-1W, CB-2026-07-10-1W, CB-2026-07-13-1W, CB-2026-07-14-1W, CB-2026-07-15-1W, CB-2026-07-17-1W, CB-2026-07-20-1W
Excluded for fairness
11 resolved candidate rounds CB-2026-07-21-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-22-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-23-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-24-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-27-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-28-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-29-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-30-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-07-31-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-08-04-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7; CB-2026-08-05-1W missing anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
Calculation

How The Score Is Calculated

CapitalBench Score equals total model return across included shared rounds divided by total max-possible return across those same rounds, multiplied by 100. Max possible is the best eligible asset in each included round in hindsight.

Scoring details