Round audit packet

CB-2026-06-12-1M

Name: CB-2026-06-12-1M CapitalBench audit dataset
Published: 2026-06-12

Monthly round one month

One-month CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored from the latest available June 11, 2026 adjusted-close snapshot to the July 13, 2026 adjusted close.

Test CB-2026-06-12-1M pending

Portfolios Frozen By 2026-06-12

Start Date 2026-06-11

End Date 2026-07-13

Run ID official-20260612

1 Inputs saved
7 public audit hashes are available.
2 Portfolios collected
6 valid model portfolios.
3 Start priced
70 starting-price rows published.
4 Ending prices pending
Scores publish after 2026-07-13 prices are available.

Round state

Score Pending

This round has saved inputs and model portfolios. Benchmark results remain unavailable until ending prices are collected.

Pending

Model portfolios

6 valid portfolios

No invalid parsed submissions are published for the public run.

Asset list

70 saved choices

v2.1 is preserved exactly as the model-facing list.

Scoring

Ending prices pending

Portfolio return, S&P 500 return, maximum possible return, CapitalBench context, and regret publish after scoring.

Input audit hashes

7 artifacts published.

Public run selected

official-20260612

Model-facing prompt available

93,687 shared prompt characters.

Ending prices pending

Benchmark result rows remain withheld until the exit close is priced.

Model consensus

Where Models Concentrated In This Round

Each model has equal weight. This shows the combined portfolio created by averaging all valid model portfolios in this monthly round.

Score pending

Top exposure 19.2%

Semiconductors (SMH)

Top 3 exposures 47.5%

Combined average allocation to the three largest assets.

Effective spread 9.6 assets

Higher means model capital was spread across more assets.

Average allocation across 6 model portfolios Assets

Semiconductors (SMH) 4 models: GPT-5.5 35% / Claude Fable 5 30% / Claude Opus 4.7 30% / Claude Opus 4.8 20%

19.2%

Energy Sector (XLE) 3 models: Grok 4.3 35% / Gemini 3.1 Pro 30% / Claude Fable 5 25%

15%

Healthcare Sector (XLV) 3 models: Grok 4.3 35% / Claude Opus 4.8 25% / Claude Opus 4.7 20%

13.3%

Aerospace and Defense (ITA) 3 models: Claude Opus 4.7 20% / Claude Opus 4.8 20% / GPT-5.5 15%

9.2%

S&P 500 (SPY) 1 model: Gemini 3.1 Pro 40%

6.7%

Financials Sector (XLF) 1 model: Grok 4.3 30%

Technology Sector (XLK) 1 model: Gemini 3.1 Pro 30%

Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL) 2 models: Claude Opus 4.8 15% / Claude Opus 4.7 10%

4.2%

Interim tracking

Live Portfolio And S&P 500 Returns

Once at least one post-entry price snapshot exists, this chart tracks each saved model portfolio against S&P 500 from the round start date. It is interim research context, not the final score.

S&P 500+0.54%

Claude Fable 5+0.95%

Claude Opus 4.7+0.47%

Claude Opus 4.8+0.29%

Gemini 3.1 Pro+0.70%

GPT-5.5+0.65%

Grok 4.3+0.61%

AnthropicClaude Fable 5

Portfolio: +0.95%
S&P 500: +0.54%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500: +0.41%
Primary: SEMICONDUCTORS

GoogleGemini 3.1 Pro

Portfolio: +0.70%
S&P 500: +0.54%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500: +0.16%
Primary: SP500

OpenAIGPT-5.5

Portfolio: +0.65%
S&P 500: +0.54%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500: +0.11%
Primary: SEMICONDUCTORS

xAIGrok 4.3

Portfolio: +0.61%
S&P 500: +0.54%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500: +0.07%
Primary: ENERGY

AnthropicClaude Opus 4.7

Portfolio: +0.47%
S&P 500: +0.54%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500: -0.07%
Primary: SEMICONDUCTORS

AnthropicClaude Opus 4.8

Portfolio: +0.29%
S&P 500: +0.54%
Portfolio Minus S&P 500: -0.25%
Primary: HEALTHCARE

Saved model-facing context

Prompt And Input Packet

The shared packet below is the prompt body common to every model call. Each provider call appends a small model-specific identifier block shown after the artifacts.

Shared Model-Facing Prompt Packet 93,687 characters

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.

The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.

Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

## Round Metadata

- Round ID: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- Decision date: 2026-06-12
- Research cutoff UTC: 2026-06-12T07:42:32Z
- Decision deadline UTC: 2026-06-12T23:30:00Z
- Horizon: one month
- Entry date: 2026-06-11
- Exit date: 2026-07-13
- Entry rule: Use adjusted close on Thursday, June 11, 2026 as the latest available pre-open June 12 entry snapshot for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Exit rule: Use adjusted close on Monday, July 13, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
- Scoring benchmark: S&P 500 / SPY
- Return calculation: adjusted close prices are used when available.

## Briefing

# CapitalBench Briefing

## 1. Neutrality And Bias-Control Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Missing rows are preserved for comparability; inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return.

## 2. Research And Evaluation Setup

| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| research cutoff | 2026-06-12T07:42:32Z |
| decision deadline | 2026-06-12T23:30:00Z |
| evaluation horizon | one month |
| entry date | 2026-06-12 |
| exit date | 2026-07-13 |
| model access rule | no tool use and no web access |
| shared-input rule | competing models receive the same frozen factual briefing, fixed ETF option universe, and mechanical return table |

## 3. Core Macro Datapoints

| indicator_id | data_area | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CPI_HEADLINE_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 0.5 | percent | 0.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_HEADLINE_YOY | CPI | percent change (YoY) | 4.2 | percent | 3.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_CORE_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 0.2 | percent | 0.4 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_CORE_YOY | CPI | percent change (YoY) | 2.9 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_SHELTER_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 0.3 | percent | 0.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_ENERGY_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 3.9 | percent | 3.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| PCE_HEADLINE_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | 0.4 | percent | 0.7 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_HEADLINE_YOY | PCE | percent change (YoY) | 3.8 | percent | 3.5 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_CORE_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | 0.2 | percent | 0.3 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_CORE_YOY | PCE | percent change (YoY) | 3.3 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_GOODS_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| PCE_SERVICES_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| PPI_FINAL_DEMAND_MOM | PPI | percent change (MoM) | 1.1 | percent | 1.1 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS PPI News Release | observed |
| PPI_FINAL_DEMAND_YOY | PPI | percent change (YoY) | 6.5 | percent | 7.4 in November 2022 | range or historical comparison | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS PPI News Release | observed |
| UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE | Labor | rate | 4.3 | percent | unchanged from April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| U6_UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE | Labor | rate | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| LABOR_FORCE_PARTICIPATION_RATE | Labor | rate | 61.8 | percent | held at 61.8 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| NONFARM_PAYROLLS | Labor | change | 172 | thousand | 179 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| AVERAGE_HOURLY_EARNINGS_MOM | Labor | percent change (MoM) | 0.3 | percent | 12 cents | source-reported change | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| AVERAGE_HOURLY_EARNINGS_YOY | Labor | percent change (YoY) | 3.4 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| AVERAGE_WEEKLY_HOURS | Labor | level | 34.3 | hours | unchanged from April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| INITIAL_JOBLESS_CLAIMS | Labor | level | 229,000 | people | 225,000 prior week | prior value | week ended 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims | observed |
| CONTINUING_JOBLESS_CLAIMS | Labor | level | 1,795,000 | people | 1,771,000 prior week revised | prior value | week ended 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims | observed |
| JOLTS_JOB_OPENINGS | Labor | level | 7.6 | million | increase of 731,000 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-06-02 | BLS JOLTS | observed |
| REAL_GDP_QOQ_SAAR | GDP | percent change (QoQ, annualized) | 1.6 | percent | 0.5 in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| GDP_PRICE_INDEX | GDP | gross domestic purchases price index percent change | 3.5 | percent | revised down 0.1 percentage point from previous estimate | revision | Q1 2026 second estimate | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| RETAIL_SALES_MOM | Retail | percent change (MoM) | 0.5 | percent | 1.6 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade | observed |
| RETAIL_SALES_YOY | Retail | percent change (YoY) | 4.9 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade | observed |
| RETAIL_SALES_CONTROL_GROUP_MOM | Retail | percent change (MoM) | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| PERSONAL_INCOME_MOM | Income | percent change (MoM) | 0.0 | percent | 0.5 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PERSONAL_SPENDING_MOM | Spending | current-dollar PCE percent change (MoM) | 0.5 | percent | 1.0 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PERSONAL_SAVING_RATE | Saving | rate | 2.6 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| CONSUMER_CREDIT | Credit | level | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| DURABLE_GOODS_ORDERS_MOM | Manufacturing | percent change (MoM) | 7.9 | percent | 1.3 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census Durable Goods | observed |
| FACTORY_ORDERS_MOM | Manufacturing | percent change (MoM) | 4.8 | percent | 1.8 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-06-03 | U.S. Census Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders | observed |
| US_TRADE_BALANCE | External Trade | balance | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INDUSTRIAL_PRODUCTION_MOM | Industrial Production | percent change (MoM) | 0.7 | percent | -0.3 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-15 | Federal Reserve G.17 | observed |
| CAPACITY_UTILIZATION | Industrial Production | utilization rate | 76.1 | percent | 3.3 percentage points below long-run average | range or historical comparison | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-15 | Federal Reserve G.17 | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_PMI | Business Survey | index | 54.0 | index | 52.7 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_NEW_ORDERS | Business Survey | index | 56.8 | index | 54.1 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_PRICES | Business Survey | index | 82.1 | index | 84.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_EMPLOYMENT | Business Survey | index | 48.6 | index | 46.4 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_PMI | Business Survey | index | 54.5 | index | 53.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_NEW_ORDERS | Business Survey | index | 57.3 | index | 53.5 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_PRICES | Business Survey | index | 71.3 | index | 70.7 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_EMPLOYMENT | Business Survey | index | 47.9 | index | 48.0 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| CONSUMER_SENTIMENT | Survey | index | 44.8 | index | 48.2 preliminary May reading | revision | May 2026 final | 2026-05-22 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | observed |
| CONSUMER_INFLATION_EXPECTATIONS_1Y | Survey | median expected price change next 12 months | 4.8 | percent | 4.7 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-05-22 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | observed |
| CONSUMER_INFLATION_EXPECTATIONS_5Y | Survey | long-run inflation expectations | 3.9 | percent | 3.5 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-05-22 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | observed |
| CONSUMER_CONFIDENCE | Survey | index | 93.1 | index | 93.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-05-26 | The Conference Board Consumer Confidence | observed |
| HOUSING_STARTS | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 1,465,000 | units | 2.8 percent below March 2026 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census New Residential Construction | observed |
| BUILDING_PERMITS | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 1,442,000 | units | 5.8 percent above March 2026 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census New Residential Construction | observed |
| EXISTING_HOME_SALES | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 4.17 | million units | 3.2 percent above April 2026 | month-over-month change | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales | observed |
| NEW_HOME_SALES | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 622,000 | units | 663,000 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census New Residential Sales | observed |
| PENDING_HOME_SALES | Housing | Pending Home Sales Index | 74.8 | index | 1.4 percent above March 2026 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-19 | National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales | observed |

## 4. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints

| indicator_id | data_area | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FED_FUNDS_TARGET_RANGE | Monetary Policy | target range | 3.50-3.75 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | since 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-29 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement | observed |
| LATEST_FOMC_DECISION | Monetary Policy | target range decision | maintained 3.50-3.75 percent | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 28-29 2026 meeting | 2026-04-29 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement | observed |
| NEXT_FOMC_MEETING | Monetary Policy | scheduled meeting | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | date | not source-reported | not source-reported | scheduled | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar | scheduled |
| MARKET_IMPLIED_NEXT_FOMC_PROBABILITY | Market Data | probability of maintaining target range | 97.1 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | as of 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-12 | CME FedWatch via Growbeansprout | forecast_or_estimate |
| EFFECTIVE_FED_FUNDS_RATE | Monetary Policy | effective rate | 3.62 | percent | 3.62 prior four listed observations | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| SOFR | Rates | Secured Overnight Financing Rate | 3.59 | percent | 3.60 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | FRED SOFR | observed |
| TREASURY_3M | Rates | 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate | 3.64 | percent | 3.64 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_2Y | Rates | 2-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.13 | percent | 4.13 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_5Y | Rates | 5-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.27 | percent | 4.26 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_10Y | Rates | 10-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.55 | percent | 4.53 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_30Y | Rates | 30-year Treasury constant maturity | 5.03 | percent | 5.01 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| REAL_YIELD_5Y | Rates | 5-year TIPS constant maturity | 1.83 | percent | 1.82 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| REAL_YIELD_10Y | Rates | 10-year TIPS constant maturity | 2.21 | percent | 2.20 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| BREAKEVEN_INFLATION_5Y | Market Data | 5-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.40 | percent | 2.44 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | observed |
| BREAKEVEN_INFLATION_10Y | Market Data | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.29 | percent | 2.34 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | observed |
| INFLATION_SWAP_OR_MARKET_EXPECTATION_1Y | Market Data | 1-year inflation swap rate | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| TREASURY_10Y_2Y_SPREAD | Rates | 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread | 0.40 | percent | 0.42 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury | observed |
| TREASURY_10Y_3M_SPREAD | Rates | 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_DOLLAR_INDEX | Currencies | Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | 120.0831 | index | 119.3615 on 2026-06-04 | prior value | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-08 | FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | observed |
| VIX | Volatility | Cboe VIX spot price | 19.44 | index | -12.51 percent change | source-reported change | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | Cboe VIX | observed |
| MOVE_INDEX | Volatility | ICE BofA MOVE Index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_OAS | Credit | investment-grade option-adjusted spread | not provided | basis points | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| HIGH_YIELD_OAS | Credit | high-yield option-adjusted spread | not provided | basis points | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| FINANCIAL_CONDITIONS_INDEX | Conditions | index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MONEY_MARKET_FUND_ASSETS | Liquidity | total money market fund assets | 7.87 | trillion USD | decreased by 21.48 billion USD | week-over-week change | week ended 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Investment Company Institute Money Market Fund Assets | observed |
| FED_BALANCE_SHEET_TOTAL_ASSETS | Fed | total assets | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| RESERVE_BALANCES_WITH_FEDERAL_RESERVE | Fed | reserve balances | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| TREASURY_GENERAL_ACCOUNT | Treasury | TGA balance | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| REVERSE_REPO | Fed | reverse repo | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| M2_MONEY_STOCK | Fed | M2 money stock | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MORTGAGE_30Y_FIXED_RATE | Rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.52 | percent | 6.48 prior week; 6.84 one year ago | prior value and year-over-year comparison | week of 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | Freddie Mac PMMS | observed |

## 5. Commodity And Currency Datapoints

| indicator_id | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI_CRUDE | price | 95.00 | USD/bbl | 94.32 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | FRED WTI Crude Oil | observed |
| BRENT_CRUDE | price | 97.46 | USD/bbl | 97.29 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | FRED Brent Crude Oil | observed |
| NATURAL_GAS | Henry Hub spot price | 3.10 | USD/MMBtu | 3.05 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | FRED Henry Hub Natural Gas | observed |
| GOLD | futures price | 4,094.40 | USD/oz | 4,133.30 prior close | prior value | 2026-06-11 | Yahoo Finance Gold Futures | observed |
| SILVER | price | not provided | USD/oz | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| COPPER | global price | 13,483.75154 | USD/metric ton | 12,890.68773 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | FRED Global Copper Price | observed |
| BROAD_COMMODITY_INDEX | index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_DOLLAR_INDEX | Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | 120.0831 | index | 119.3615 on 2026-06-04 | prior value | 2026-06-05 | FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | observed |
| EURUSD | exchange rate | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| USDJPY | exchange rate | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BITCOIN | Coinbase Bitcoin price | 63,482.72 | USD | 61,570.02 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Bitcoin | observed |
| ETHEREUM | Coinbase Ethereum price | 1,668.89 | USD | 1,622.27 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Ethereum | observed |

## 6. Broad Equity Market Datapoints

| indicator_id | data_area | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SP500_INDEX_LEVEL | Equity | index level | 7,394.30 | index | 7,266.99 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED S&P 500 | observed |
| NASDAQ_COMPOSITE_INDEX_LEVEL | Equity | index level | 25,809.660 | index | 25,169.500 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED NASDAQ Composite | observed |
| RUSSELL_2000_INDEX_LEVEL | Equity | index level | 2,921.03 | index | rose 3.0 percent on 2026-06-11 | source-reported change | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | Associated Press market indexes | observed |
| SP500_FORWARD_PE_OR_CAPE | Valuation | forward 12-month P/E ratio | 21.1 | ratio | 19.7 at 2026-03-31 | prior value | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | observed |
| SP500_EARNINGS_GROWTH_ESTIMATE | Earnings | CY 2026 earnings growth estimate | 22.8 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | forecast_or_estimate |
| SP500_EARNINGS_REVISION_OR_BEAT_RATE | Earnings | revision or beat rate | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_EQUITY_MARKET_BREADTH | Breadth | index or ratio | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_VS_CAP_WEIGHT_CONTEXT | Breadth | comparison index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EQUITY_PUT_CALL_RATIO | Market | ratio | not provided | ratio | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INVESTOR_SENTIMENT_SURVEY | Sentiment | index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_EQUITY_FUND_FLOWS | Flows | net flows | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| ETF_FUND_FLOWS_EQUITY_BOND_CASH | Flows | net flows | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MARGIN_DEBT_OR_LEVERAGE_DATAPOINT | Leverage | index or level | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| IMPLIED_CORRELATION_OR_REALIZED_CORRELATION | Correlation | index or measure | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |

## 7. Scheduled Macro Events

| event_id | date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NEXT_CPI_RELEASE | outside scoring window | Consumer Price Index, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS Release Calendar | outside_window |
| NEXT_PCE_RELEASE | 2026-06-25 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | inflation and income release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_PPI_RELEASE | outside scoring window | Producer Price Index, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS Release Calendar | outside_window |
| NEXT_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT | 2026-07-02 8:30 AM ET | Employment Situation, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS Release Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_RETAIL_SALES_RELEASE | 2026-06-17 8:30 AM ET | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau | economic data release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Retail Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_GDP_RELEASE | 2026-06-25 8:30 AM ET | GDP third estimate and corporate profits, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_ISM_MANUFACTURING_RELEASE | 2026-07-01 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, June 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_ISM_SERVICES_RELEASE | 2026-07-06 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, June 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_FOMC_DECISION | 2026-06-17 2:00 PM ET | FOMC monetary policy decision | Federal Reserve | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_FOMC_MINUTES | 2026-07-08 2:00 PM ET | FOMC minutes | Federal Reserve | monetary policy minutes | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_TREASURY_REFUNDING_OR_MAJOR_AUCTION | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-18 | 20-year bond reopening and 5-year TIPS reopening auctions | U.S. Treasury | Treasury auctions | not source-reported | U.S. Treasury Tentative Auction Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_ECB_DECISION | outside scoring window | ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision | European Central Bank | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | not provided | outside_window |
| NEXT_BOJ_DECISION | 2026-06-14 to 2026-06-15 | Monetary Policy Meeting | Bank of Japan | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings | scheduled |
| NEXT_BOE_DECISION | 2026-06-18 | MPC summary and minutes | Bank of England | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of England MPC Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_PBOC_LPR_FIXING | 2026-06-20 | Loan Prime Rate fixing | People's Bank of China and National Interbank Funding Center | policy-rate fixing | not source-reported | not provided | scheduled |
| NEXT_JOBLESS_CLAIMS_RELEASE | 2026-06-18 8:30 AM ET | Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims | U.S. Department of Labor | labor market release | not source-reported | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims | scheduled |
| NEXT_JOLTS_RELEASE | 2026-06-30 10:00 AM ET | Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS JOLTS | scheduled |
| NEXT_DURABLE_GOODS_RELEASE | 2026-06-25 8:30 AM ET | Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, May 2026 advance | U.S. Census Bureau | manufacturing release | not source-reported | U.S. Census M3 Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_TRADE_BALANCE_RELEASE | 2026-07-07 8:30 AM ET | U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis | trade release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_INDUSTRIAL_PRODUCTION_RELEASE | 2026-06-15 9:15 AM ET | Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, May 2026 | Federal Reserve | production release | not source-reported | Federal Reserve G.17 Release Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_CONSUMER_SENTIMENT_RELEASE | 2026-06-27 | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June 2026 final | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | consumer survey release | not source-reported | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | scheduled |
| NEXT_CONSUMER_CONFIDENCE_RELEASE | 2026-06-30 10:00 AM ET | Consumer Confidence Index, June 2026 | The Conference Board | consumer survey release | not source-reported | The Conference Board Consumer Confidence | scheduled |
| NEXT_HOUSING_STARTS_RELEASE | 2026-06-16 8:30 AM ET | New Residential Construction, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and HUD | housing release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Economic Indicator Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_EXISTING_HOME_SALES_RELEASE | 2026-07-09 10:00 AM ET | Existing-Home Sales, June 2026 | National Association of Realtors | housing release | not source-reported | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales | scheduled |
| NEXT_NEW_HOME_SALES_RELEASE | 2026-06-24 10:00 AM ET | New Residential Sales, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and HUD | housing release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Economic Indicator Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_INDEX_EARNINGS_UPDATE | not provided | major index earnings update | not provided | earnings update | not source-reported | not provided | not_provided |

## 8. Fixed Asset-Area Datapoints

| row_id | asset_area | requested_datapoint | latest_value_or_fact | unit_if_applicable | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH_SHORT_TREASURY_POLICY_RATE | cash and short-duration Treasuries | current federal funds target range or nearest official short-rate policy setting | Federal funds target range 3.50-3.75 percent | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | since 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-29 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement | policy_or_regulatory_fact |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_CORPORATE_PROFITS | broad US equities | latest official corporate profits or broad index earnings aggregate | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026 | USD | increase of $246.9 billion in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_GDP | broad US equities | latest real GDP growth value | Real GDP increased at a 1.6 percent annualized rate in Q1 2026 | percent | 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_VALUATION | broad US equities | latest broad valuation datapoint such as forward P/E, CAPE, or earnings yield if source-reported | S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E ratio 21.1 | ratio | 19.7 at 2026-03-31 | prior value | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | observed |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_MARKET_BREADTH | broad US equities | latest broad market breadth datapoint if source-reported | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| NASDAQ_GROWTH_TECH_INDEX_OR_SECTOR_FACT | Nasdaq / growth / technology | latest broad technology sector or Nasdaq-level fact, not single-company news | NASDAQ Composite closed at 25,809.660 on 2026-06-11 | index | 25,169.500 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED NASDAQ Composite | observed |
| LARGE_GROWTH_CONTEXT | large-cap growth | latest broad large-growth style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| LARGE_VALUE_CONTEXT | large-cap value | latest broad large-value style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MID_CAP_CONTEXT | mid-cap equities | latest broad mid-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SMALL_CAP_CONTEXT | small-cap equities | latest broad small-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SMALL_VALUE_CONTEXT | small-cap value | latest broad small-value style, valuation, earnings, or financing fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| DIVIDEND_CONTEXT | dividend equities | latest broad dividend-yield, payout, dividend-growth, or factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| LOW_VOLATILITY_CONTEXT | low-volatility equities | latest broad low-volatility factor, realized volatility, low-beta factor, or minimum-volatility factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MOMENTUM_CONTEXT | momentum equities | latest broad momentum factor, factor rotation, or style-index fact from a reliable source | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| COMMUNICATION_SERVICES_CONTEXT | communication services | latest broad sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY_CONTEXT | consumer discretionary | latest broad sector fact or consumer spending datapoint | Retail and food services sales increased 0.5 percent month over month in April 2026 | percent | 1.6 percent in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade | observed |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES_CONTEXT | consumer staples | latest broad sector fact or consumer spending/inflation datapoint | Food at home CPI increased 0.1 percent month over month and 2.7 percent year over year in May 2026 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| HEALTHCARE_CONTEXT | healthcare | latest broad sector, policy, or spending fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BIOTECH_CONTEXT | biotechnology | latest broad biotech industry, policy, or index-level fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| FINANCIALS_CONTEXT | financials | latest broad banking, credit, or financial-sector fact | Money market fund assets were $7.87 trillion for the week ended 2026-06-10 | USD | decreased by $21.48 billion | week-over-week change | week ended 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Investment Company Institute Money Market Fund Assets | observed |
| REGIONAL_BANKS_CONTEXT | regional banks | latest regional-bank industry, FDIC, credit, or deposit fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INDUSTRIALS_CONTEXT | industrials | latest industrial production, manufacturing, or broad sector fact | Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April 2026 | percent | -0.3 percent in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-15 | Federal Reserve G.17 | observed |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE_CONTEXT | aerospace and defense | latest broad defense budget, orders, production, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| ENERGY_CONTEXT | energy | latest broad energy-sector, oil/gas supply, or inventory fact | WTI crude oil spot price was $95.00 per barrel on 2026-06-08 | USD/barrel | $94.32 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-10 | FRED WTI Crude Oil | observed |
| MATERIALS_CONTEXT | materials | latest broad materials, chemicals, or industrial-input fact | Producer Price Index final demand goods increased 2.8 percent in May 2026 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS PPI News Release | observed |
| METALS_MINING_CONTEXT | metals and mining | latest broad metals/mining production, price, inventory, or forecast fact | Global copper price was $13,483.75154 per metric ton in May 2026 | USD/metric ton | $12,890.68773 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | FRED Global Copper Price | observed |
| UTILITIES_CONTEXT | utilities | latest electricity demand, generation, rate, or broad utility-sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| REAL_ESTATE_CONTEXT | real estate | latest housing, REIT, mortgage, or property-market fact | Existing-home sales were 4.17 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in May 2026 | million units | 3.2 percent above April 2026 | month-over-month change | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales | observed |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY_CONTEXT | intermediate Treasuries | latest Treasury yield or policy fact from macro packet if no separate broad source exists | 5-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 4.27 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 4.26 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| LONG_TREASURY_CONTEXT | long Treasuries | latest long-term Treasury yield or policy fact from macro packet if no separate broad source exists | 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 5.03 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 5.01 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TIPS_CONTEXT | TIPS | latest real yield or inflation-expectation fact | 10-year TIPS constant maturity yield was 2.21 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 2.20 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS_CONTEXT | aggregate bonds | latest aggregate bond-market yield, duration, or broad fixed-income fact | 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 4.55 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 4.53 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| MBS_CONTEXT | agency mortgage-backed bonds | latest mortgage-rate or agency MBS market fact | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.52 percent for the week of 2026-06-11 | percent | 6.48 percent prior week; 6.84 percent one year ago | prior value and year-over-year comparison | week of 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | Freddie Mac PMMS | observed |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | municipal bonds | latest municipal bond yield, issuance, credit, or fund-flow fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT_CONTEXT | investment-grade credit | latest investment-grade credit spread or broad corporate credit fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT_CONTEXT | high-yield credit | latest high-yield credit spread or default/fund-flow fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS_CONTEXT | emerging-market bonds | latest EM bond spread, yield, flow, or debt fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | international aggregate bonds | latest non-US aggregate bond yield, hedged global bond, currency-hedging, or international rates fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US_CONTEXT | developed ex-US equities | latest developed-market ex-US or MSCI/EAFE-level fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EMERGING_MARKETS_CONTEXT | emerging-market equities | latest broad emerging-market equity, GDP, PMI, flows, currency, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EUROPE_CONTEXT | Europe equities | latest ECB, euro area GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| JAPAN_CONTEXT | Japan equities | latest BOJ, Japan GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CHINA_CONTEXT | China equities | latest China GDP, PMI, LPR, inflation, trade, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INDIA_CONTEXT | India equities | latest India GDP, CPI, RBI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CANADA_CONTEXT | Canada equities | latest Bank of Canada, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| UK_CONTEXT | UK equities | latest Bank of England, GDP, CPI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AUSTRALIA_CONTEXT | Australia equities | latest RBA, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SOUTH_KOREA_CONTEXT | South Korea equities | latest Korea GDP, exports, CPI, Bank of Korea, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| TAIWAN_CONTEXT | Taiwan equities | latest Taiwan GDP, exports, inflation, central-bank, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BRAZIL_CONTEXT | Brazil equities | latest Brazil GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MEXICO_CONTEXT | Mexico equities | latest Mexico GDP, inflation, central-bank, trade, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SOUTH_AFRICA_CONTEXT | South Africa equities | latest South Africa GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| GOLD_CONTEXT | gold | latest broad gold price, demand, central-bank purchases, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SILVER_CONTEXT | silver | latest broad silver price, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| COPPER_CONTEXT | copper | latest broad copper price, inventory, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AGRICULTURE_CONTEXT | agriculture | latest broad agriculture price, crop, WASDE, or supply fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES_CONTEXT | broad commodities | latest broad commodity index, World Bank, or commodity-market fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| OIL_CONTEXT | oil | latest oil price, inventory, OPEC, EIA, supply, or demand fact | Brent crude oil spot price was $97.46 per barrel on 2026-06-08 | USD/barrel | $97.29 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-10 | FRED Brent Crude Oil | observed |
| US_DOLLAR_CONTEXT | US dollar | latest DXY or broad dollar fact | Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index was 120.0831 on 2026-06-05 | index | 119.3615 on 2026-06-04 | prior value | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-08 | FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | observed |
| EURO_CONTEXT | euro | latest ECB, EUR/USD, euro-area rate, or currency fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| YEN_CONTEXT | yen | latest BOJ, USD/JPY, Japan rate, or currency fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BITCOIN_CONTEXT | bitcoin proxy | latest bitcoin price, ETF flow, regulatory, or market-structure fact | Coinbase Bitcoin price was $63,482.72 on 2026-06-11 | USD | $61,570.02 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Bitcoin | observed |
| ETHEREUM_CONTEXT | ethereum proxy | latest ethereum price, ETF flow, regulatory, or market-structure fact | Coinbase Ethereum price was $1,668.89 on 2026-06-11 | USD | $1,622.27 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Ethereum | observed |
| SEMICONDUCTORS_CONTEXT | semiconductors | latest global semiconductor sales, industry shipment, equipment, export, or broad supply-chain fact | NASDAQ Composite closed at 25,809.660 on 2026-06-11 | index | 25,169.500 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED NASDAQ Composite | observed |
| SOFTWARE_CONTEXT | software | latest broad software price, spending, revenue, or sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BROAD_AI_TECH_CONTEXT | broad AI technology | latest broad AI spending, investment, infrastructure, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS_CONTEXT | autonomous technology / robotics | latest robotics order, automation, industrial robot, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CYBERSECURITY_CONTEXT | cybersecurity | latest broad cybersecurity spending, incident count, policy, or sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AI_INFRASTRUCTURE_CONTEXT | AI infrastructure | latest data-center, power demand, capex, chips, cloud infrastructure, or policy fact | S&P 500 CY 2026 earnings growth estimate was 22.8 percent in FactSet Earnings Insight | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | forecast_or_estimate |
| SOLAR_CONTEXT | solar | latest solar generation, installation, capacity, policy, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |

## 9. Scheduled Asset-Area Events

| event_id | date | asset_area | event | entity_or_publisher | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NEXT_MAJOR_CENTRAL_BANK_EVENTS | 2026-06-14 to 2026-06-18 | cash and short-duration Treasuries; bonds and rates; international equities | BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting; FOMC decision; BOE MPC summary and minutes | Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve; Bank of England | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar -  Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings -  Bank of England MPC Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COUNTRY_INFLATION_RELEASES | 2026-06-25 | broad US equities; bonds and rates; TIPS; consumer sectors | U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COUNTRY_GDP_RELEASES | 2026-06-25 | broad US equities | U.S. GDP third estimate and corporate profits, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COUNTRY_PMI_RELEASES | 2026-07-01 to 2026-07-06 | broad US equities; industrials | ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI, June 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | ISM Report Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COMMODITY_POLICY_OR_INVENTORY_EVENTS | 2026-06-17 and 2026-07-10 | energy; oil; agriculture | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; USDA WASDE July report | U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Department of Agriculture | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report -  USDA WASDE Release Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_ENERGY_REPORTS | 2026-06-17 | energy; oil | Weekly Petroleum Status Report | U.S. Energy Information Administration | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_TREASURY_OR_CREDIT_EVENTS | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-18 | intermediate and long Treasuries; TIPS | 20-year bond reopening and 5-year TIPS reopening auctions | U.S. Treasury | U.S. Treasury Tentative Auction Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_BROAD_INDEX_EARNINGS_MILESTONE | not scheduled inside scoring window | broad US equities | not scheduled inside scoring window | not provided | not provided | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| NEXT_MAJOR_SECTOR_POLICY_EVENTS | not scheduled inside scoring window | healthcare; sector policy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not provided | not provided | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| NEXT_MAJOR_CRYPTO_REGULATORY_OR_ETF_EVENTS | not scheduled inside scoring window | bitcoin proxy; ethereum proxy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not provided | not provided | not_scheduled_inside_window |

## 10. Missing Or Limited Datapoints

### Macro Missing Data

| section | indicator_or_event_id | missing_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | PCE_GOODS_MOM | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | PCE_SERVICES_MOM | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | U6_UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | RETAIL_SALES_CONTROL_GROUP_MOM | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | CONSUMER_CREDIT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | US_TRADE_BALANCE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | INFLATION_SWAP_OR_MARKET_EXPECTATION_1Y | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | TREASURY_10Y_3M_SPREAD | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | MOVE_INDEX | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | INVESTMENT_GRADE_OAS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | HIGH_YIELD_OAS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | FINANCIAL_CONDITIONS_INDEX | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | FED_BALANCE_SHEET_TOTAL_ASSETS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | RESERVE_BALANCES_WITH_FEDERAL_RESERVE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | TREASURY_GENERAL_ACCOUNT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | REVERSE_REPO | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | M2_MONEY_STOCK | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | SILVER | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | BROAD_COMMODITY_INDEX | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | EURUSD | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | USDJPY | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | SP500_EARNINGS_REVISION_OR_BEAT_RATE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | US_EQUITY_MARKET_BREADTH | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | EQUAL_WEIGHT_VS_CAP_WEIGHT_CONTEXT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | EQUITY_PUT_CALL_RATIO | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | INVESTOR_SENTIMENT_SURVEY | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | US_EQUITY_FUND_FLOWS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | ETF_FUND_FLOWS_EQUITY_BOND_CASH | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | MARGIN_DEBT_OR_LEVERAGE_DATAPOINT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | IMPLIED_CORRELATION_OR_REALIZED_CORRELATION | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_CPI_RELEASE | Consumer Price Index, June 2026 | outside_window |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_PPI_RELEASE | Producer Price Index, June 2026 | outside_window |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_ECB_DECISION | ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision | outside_window |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_MAJOR_INDEX_EARNINGS_UPDATE | major index earnings update | not_provided |

### Asset-Area Missing Data

| section | row_or_event_id | asset_area | missing_or_limited_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Section 2 | BROAD_US_EQUITIES_MARKET_BREADTH | broad US equities | latest broad market breadth datapoint if source-reported | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | LARGE_GROWTH_CONTEXT | large-cap growth | latest broad large-growth style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | LARGE_VALUE_CONTEXT | large-cap value | latest broad large-value style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MID_CAP_CONTEXT | mid-cap equities | latest broad mid-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SMALL_CAP_CONTEXT | small-cap equities | latest broad small-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SMALL_VALUE_CONTEXT | small-cap value | latest broad small-value style, valuation, earnings, or financing fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | DIVIDEND_CONTEXT | dividend equities | latest broad dividend-yield, payout, dividend-growth, or factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | LOW_VOLATILITY_CONTEXT | low-volatility equities | latest broad low-volatility factor, realized volatility, low-beta factor, or minimum-volatility factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MOMENTUM_CONTEXT | momentum equities | latest broad momentum factor, factor rotation, or style-index fact from a reliable source | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | COMMUNICATION_SERVICES_CONTEXT | communication services | latest broad sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | HEALTHCARE_CONTEXT | healthcare | latest broad sector, policy, or spending fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BIOTECH_CONTEXT | biotechnology | latest broad biotech industry, policy, or index-level fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | REGIONAL_BANKS_CONTEXT | regional banks | latest regional-bank industry, FDIC, credit, or deposit fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AEROSPACE_DEFENSE_CONTEXT | aerospace and defense | latest broad defense budget, orders, production, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | UTILITIES_CONTEXT | utilities | latest electricity demand, generation, rate, or broad utility-sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MUNICIPAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | municipal bonds | latest municipal bond yield, issuance, credit, or fund-flow fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT_CONTEXT | investment-grade credit | latest investment-grade credit spread or broad corporate credit fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT_CONTEXT | high-yield credit | latest high-yield credit spread or default/fund-flow fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS_CONTEXT | emerging-market bonds | latest EM bond spread, yield, flow, or debt fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | INTERNATIONAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | international aggregate bonds | latest non-US aggregate bond yield, hedged global bond, currency-hedging, or international rates fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | DEVELOPED_EX_US_CONTEXT | developed ex-US equities | latest developed-market ex-US or MSCI/EAFE-level fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EMERGING_MARKETS_CONTEXT | emerging-market equities | latest broad emerging-market equity, GDP, PMI, flows, currency, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EUROPE_CONTEXT | Europe equities | latest ECB, euro area GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | JAPAN_CONTEXT | Japan equities | latest BOJ, Japan GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | CHINA_CONTEXT | China equities | latest China GDP, PMI, LPR, inflation, trade, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | INDIA_CONTEXT | India equities | latest India GDP, CPI, RBI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | CANADA_CONTEXT | Canada equities | latest Bank of Canada, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | UK_CONTEXT | UK equities | latest Bank of England, GDP, CPI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AUSTRALIA_CONTEXT | Australia equities | latest RBA, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOUTH_KOREA_CONTEXT | South Korea equities | latest Korea GDP, exports, CPI, Bank of Korea, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | TAIWAN_CONTEXT | Taiwan equities | latest Taiwan GDP, exports, inflation, central-bank, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BRAZIL_CONTEXT | Brazil equities | latest Brazil GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MEXICO_CONTEXT | Mexico equities | latest Mexico GDP, inflation, central-bank, trade, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOUTH_AFRICA_CONTEXT | South Africa equities | latest South Africa GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | GOLD_CONTEXT | gold | latest broad gold price, demand, central-bank purchases, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SILVER_CONTEXT | silver | latest broad silver price, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | COPPER_CONTEXT | copper | latest broad copper price, inventory, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AGRICULTURE_CONTEXT | agriculture | latest broad agriculture price, crop, WASDE, or supply fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BROAD_COMMODITIES_CONTEXT | broad commodities | latest broad commodity index, World Bank, or commodity-market fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EURO_CONTEXT | euro | latest ECB, EUR/USD, euro-area rate, or currency fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | YEN_CONTEXT | yen | latest BOJ, USD/JPY, Japan rate, or currency fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOFTWARE_CONTEXT | software | latest broad software price, spending, revenue, or sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BROAD_AI_TECH_CONTEXT | broad AI technology | latest broad AI spending, investment, infrastructure, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS_CONTEXT | autonomous technology / robotics | latest robotics order, automation, industrial robot, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | CYBERSECURITY_CONTEXT | cybersecurity | latest broad cybersecurity spending, incident count, policy, or sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOLAR_CONTEXT | solar | latest solar generation, installation, capacity, policy, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 3 | NEXT_MAJOR_BROAD_INDEX_EARNINGS_MILESTONE | broad US equities | not scheduled inside scoring window | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| Section 3 | NEXT_MAJOR_SECTOR_POLICY_EVENTS | healthcare; sector policy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| Section 3 | NEXT_MAJOR_CRYPTO_REGULATORY_OR_ETF_EVENTS | bitcoin proxy; ethereum proxy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not_scheduled_inside_window |

## 11. Full-Universe Trailing Returns

# Full-Universe Trailing Returns

This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-11
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-06-11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-11 | 0.08% | 0.28% | 1.77% | 3.87% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -2.55% | -0.06% | 7.66% | 24.09% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -2.43% | 0.42% | 7.83% | 24.48% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -3.17% | 1.40% | 14.92% | 35.34% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | -4.15% | -1.44% | 1.71% | 19.30% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | -0.52% | 2.38% | 13.63% | 27.55% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-11 | 0.05% | 2.96% | 11.74% | 25.20% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-11 | -0.55% | 2.77% | 13.23% | 37.40% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | 0.36% | 2.94% | 14.89% | 40.23% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.18% | 2.42% | 18.51% | 25.78% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | 1.96% | 1.20% | 4.89% | 4.07% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.11% | 5.20% | 25.03% | 38.39% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -5.16% | 4.57% | 24.15% | 53.32% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.88% | -3.23% | -3.40% | 8.64% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.82% | -1.68% | -2.85% | 9.17% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 3.94% | 0.98% | 9.69% | 7.55% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 1.32% | 5.65% | 1.17% | 15.53% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 0.82% | 2.02% | -3.28% | 4.76% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.57% | 0.46% | 11.73% | 23.05% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -2.77% | -0.78% | 26.14% | 36.65% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.77% | -1.76% | 14.60% | 18.61% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 0.25% | -2.52% | 3.82% | 11.96% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 1.17% | 0.76% | 12.04% | 10.64% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.23% | 0.36% | -0.27% | 4.02% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.56% | 1.56% | -0.27% | 4.37% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | -0.16% | -0.22% | 1.25% | 4.90% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.21% | 0.86% | 0.69% | 5.82% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.14% | 0.60% | 2.02% | 6.61% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.74% | 5.01% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.74% | 1.92% | 15.66% | 30.40% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.01% | -0.49% | 10.67% | 23.68% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.64% | 2.70% | 9.02% | 18.82% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.07% | 0.13% | 13.60% | 30.91% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.49% | -6.65% | -10.83% | -0.56% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.48% | 0.57% | -10.79% | -13.63% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -6.11% | -10.80% | -1.75% | 25.36% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -3.42% | -8.83% | 30.00% | 36.02% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -2.88% | 8.59% | 64.83% | 133.44% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -9.13% | 1.65% | -17.18% | -14.06% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -6.05% | 4.80% | 23.85% | 52.17% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -6.66% | -3.88% | 11.18% | 54.61% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -5.77% | 14.20% | 13.33% | 18.11% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-11 | -11.56% | 1.05% | 26.52% | 80.37% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -8.01% | -4.25% | 13.05% | 84.65% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -0.51% | 2.91% | 8.60% | 19.07% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-11 | -0.51% | -1.61% | 8.25% | 57.90% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-11 | 3.39% | 6.04% | 8.63% | 27.59% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-11 | 1.93% | 4.73% | 13.41% | 31.33% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -1.57% | 0.38% | 9.12% | 30.11% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.04% | 0.64% | 9.53% | 20.73% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.28% | -1.23% | 10.58% | 12.43% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.47% | 11.45% | 114.27% | 203.73% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -3.12% | 9.26% | 62.58% | 91.96% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.09% | -8.97% | 8.75% | 30.11% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.04% | -3.31% | 10.95% | 30.39% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.08% | -6.27% | 0.61% | 30.82% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.33% | 0.67% | 1.30% | 6.49% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | -0.12% | 0.58% | 1.69% | 6.65% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.18% | 1.00% | 2.57% | 10.92% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.21% | 1.01% | 0.99% | 1.99% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -9.20% | -22.57% | 5.55% | 84.58% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -1.99% | -3.71% | 15.86% | 29.71% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -1.46% | -7.95% | 2.26% | 0.71% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -5.78% | -10.72% | 86.04% | 72.19% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-11 | 0.40% | 1.82% | 3.58% | 5.89% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-11 | -0.25% | -1.29% | -0.97% | 1.60% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-11 | 0.14% | -1.44% | -2.83% | -9.81% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-11 | 0.08% | -21.29% | -30.81% | -41.70% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-11 | -5.15% | -26.33% | -47.91% | -40.40% | pass |

## 12. Final Neutrality Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Missing rows are preserved for comparability; inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return.

## Options

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Base Instructions prompt.md

# CapitalBench Task

You are participating in an offline, time-resolved CapitalBench evaluation round.

CapitalBench evaluates how state-of-the-art language models make saved market allocation decisions from the same frozen information set. Your response will be compared against other participating models after the one-month outcome window resolves.

The scoring timeline is central to the task: the portfolio is measured from the adjusted close on the entry date to the adjusted close on the exit date, calculated after regular trading ends on the exit date. Optimize for facts, catalysts, positioning, liquidity, and risks that can plausibly affect prices before that exit close.

Optimize only for the portfolio you expect to perform best over this close-to-close one-month scoring window. Use longer-horizon facts only when they are likely to affect prices before the exit close.

Briefing-bias discipline: the briefing may group facts by broad asset area and include a mechanical return table. Treat inclusion, section order, grouping, row count, and trailing-return table order as context, not recommendation signals.

Your objective is to allocate 100% across the allowed options to maximize expected one-month realized portfolio return, measured from the entry date to the exit date, relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Use the briefing, option list, and any included market-data table as the common information set. The official leaderboard ranks each model by realized weighted portfolio return relative to the S&P 500 benchmark. Multi-shot stability analysis, if run, is reported separately and does not change the official leaderboard.

Your portfolio is scored by the weighted realized percentage return over the one-month round window. Alpha is portfolio return minus S&P 500 return. Returns are calculated from adjusted close prices when available.

You may use your internal learned knowledge and general market priors. Do not browse, use tools, request updated market data, use external retrieval, or intentionally rely on facts, market prices, news, or events dated after the research cutoff. If your internal knowledge conflicts with the briefing, prioritize the briefing.

You must allocate exactly 100% across allowed options. Use only the holding count, allocation increment, minimum allocation, and cash or benchmark constraints stated in the round metadata. Do not short, use leverage, or choose an option outside the allowed option list.

Return only valid JSON. Do not include markdown, prose, citations, or commentary outside the JSON.

Required JSON format:

{
  "round_id": "<round_id>",
  "model_id": "<model_id>",
  "provider": "<provider>",
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "option_id": "<one allowed option ID>",
      "allocation_pct": <integer percentage>,
      "rationale": "<brief holding-level rationale>"
    }
  ],
  "confidence": <number from 0 to 1>,
  "portfolio_rationale": "<1-3 sentence allocation rationale>",
  "rationale_summary": "<1-3 sentence rationale>",
  "key_risks": [
    "<risk 1>",
    "<risk 2>"
  ]
}

Rules:
- portfolio must contain only IDs from the allowed option list.
- allocation_pct values must be integers in the stated allocation increment.
- allocation_pct values must sum to exactly 100.
- confidence must be between 0 and 1.
- confidence should reflect your confidence that this is the best portfolio decision under the round constraints.
- portfolio_rationale and rationale_summary are required and should be concise.
- key_risks must be a list of 2-5 concrete risks that could cause the portfolio to underperform; do not only list generic market risk.
- Do not provide a ranked list, backup portfolio, second-best portfolio, or alternative recommendation.
- Do not include financial-advice disclaimers. This is a benchmark response, not advice to a person.
- The JSON object must contain no extra fields.

Round Manifest manifest.yaml

round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
title: CapitalBench June 12 2026 One-Month Portfolio Round
description: One-month CapitalBench portfolio evaluation round scored from the latest available June 11, 2026 adjusted-close snapshot to the July 13, 2026 adjusted close.
decision_date: '2026-06-12'
decision_deadline: '2026-06-12T23:30:00Z'
horizon: one month
methodology_version: portfolio-v1.0
universe_version: v2.1
submission_format: portfolio
portfolio_constraints:
  min_holdings: 1
  max_holdings: 5
  allocation_increment_pct: 5
  min_allocation_pct: 5
  max_total_allocation_pct: 100
  allow_cash: true
  allow_benchmark_asset: true
entry_rule: Use adjusted close on Thursday, June 11, 2026 as the latest available pre-open June 12 entry snapshot for each option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
exit_rule: Use adjusted close on Monday, July 13, 2026 for each selected option; CASH return is 0 unless explicitly priced.
entry_date: '2026-06-11'
exit_date: '2026-07-13'
created_at: '2026-06-12T07:42:38.900803+00:00'
notes: Fresh research inputs were assembled on June 12, 2026 before the U.S. market open. This is a monthly-track round using the June 11 adjusted close as the latest available pre-open entry snapshot and a June 11 close to July 13 close scoring window.

Briefing briefing.md

# CapitalBench Briefing

## 1. Neutrality And Bias-Control Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Missing rows are preserved for comparability; inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return.

## 2. Research And Evaluation Setup

| field | value |
| --- | --- |
| research cutoff | 2026-06-12T07:42:32Z |
| decision deadline | 2026-06-12T23:30:00Z |
| evaluation horizon | one month |
| entry date | 2026-06-12 |
| exit date | 2026-07-13 |
| model access rule | no tool use and no web access |
| shared-input rule | competing models receive the same frozen factual briefing, fixed ETF option universe, and mechanical return table |

## 3. Core Macro Datapoints

| indicator_id | data_area | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CPI_HEADLINE_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 0.5 | percent | 0.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_HEADLINE_YOY | CPI | percent change (YoY) | 4.2 | percent | 3.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_CORE_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 0.2 | percent | 0.4 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_CORE_YOY | CPI | percent change (YoY) | 2.9 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_SHELTER_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 0.3 | percent | 0.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| CPI_ENERGY_MOM | CPI | percent change (MoM) | 3.9 | percent | 3.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| PCE_HEADLINE_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | 0.4 | percent | 0.7 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_HEADLINE_YOY | PCE | percent change (YoY) | 3.8 | percent | 3.5 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_CORE_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | 0.2 | percent | 0.3 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_CORE_YOY | PCE | percent change (YoY) | 3.3 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PCE_GOODS_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| PCE_SERVICES_MOM | PCE | percent change (MoM) | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| PPI_FINAL_DEMAND_MOM | PPI | percent change (MoM) | 1.1 | percent | 1.1 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS PPI News Release | observed |
| PPI_FINAL_DEMAND_YOY | PPI | percent change (YoY) | 6.5 | percent | 7.4 in November 2022 | range or historical comparison | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS PPI News Release | observed |
| UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE | Labor | rate | 4.3 | percent | unchanged from April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| U6_UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE | Labor | rate | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| LABOR_FORCE_PARTICIPATION_RATE | Labor | rate | 61.8 | percent | held at 61.8 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| NONFARM_PAYROLLS | Labor | change | 172 | thousand | 179 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| AVERAGE_HOURLY_EARNINGS_MOM | Labor | percent change (MoM) | 0.3 | percent | 12 cents | source-reported change | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| AVERAGE_HOURLY_EARNINGS_YOY | Labor | percent change (YoY) | 3.4 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| AVERAGE_WEEKLY_HOURS | Labor | level | 34.3 | hours | unchanged from April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | BLS Employment Situation | observed |
| INITIAL_JOBLESS_CLAIMS | Labor | level | 229,000 | people | 225,000 prior week | prior value | week ended 2026-06-06 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims | observed |
| CONTINUING_JOBLESS_CLAIMS | Labor | level | 1,795,000 | people | 1,771,000 prior week revised | prior value | week ended 2026-05-30 | 2026-06-11 | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims | observed |
| JOLTS_JOB_OPENINGS | Labor | level | 7.6 | million | increase of 731,000 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-06-02 | BLS JOLTS | observed |
| REAL_GDP_QOQ_SAAR | GDP | percent change (QoQ, annualized) | 1.6 | percent | 0.5 in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 second estimate | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| GDP_PRICE_INDEX | GDP | gross domestic purchases price index percent change | 3.5 | percent | revised down 0.1 percentage point from previous estimate | revision | Q1 2026 second estimate | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| RETAIL_SALES_MOM | Retail | percent change (MoM) | 0.5 | percent | 1.6 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade | observed |
| RETAIL_SALES_YOY | Retail | percent change (YoY) | 4.9 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade | observed |
| RETAIL_SALES_CONTROL_GROUP_MOM | Retail | percent change (MoM) | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| PERSONAL_INCOME_MOM | Income | percent change (MoM) | 0.0 | percent | 0.5 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PERSONAL_SPENDING_MOM | Spending | current-dollar PCE percent change (MoM) | 0.5 | percent | 1.0 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| PERSONAL_SAVING_RATE | Saving | rate | 2.6 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA Personal Income and Outlays | observed |
| CONSUMER_CREDIT | Credit | level | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| DURABLE_GOODS_ORDERS_MOM | Manufacturing | percent change (MoM) | 7.9 | percent | 1.3 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census Durable Goods | observed |
| FACTORY_ORDERS_MOM | Manufacturing | percent change (MoM) | 4.8 | percent | 1.8 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-06-03 | U.S. Census Manufacturers Shipments Inventories and Orders | observed |
| US_TRADE_BALANCE | External Trade | balance | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INDUSTRIAL_PRODUCTION_MOM | Industrial Production | percent change (MoM) | 0.7 | percent | -0.3 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-15 | Federal Reserve G.17 | observed |
| CAPACITY_UTILIZATION | Industrial Production | utilization rate | 76.1 | percent | 3.3 percentage points below long-run average | range or historical comparison | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-15 | Federal Reserve G.17 | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_PMI | Business Survey | index | 54.0 | index | 52.7 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_NEW_ORDERS | Business Survey | index | 56.8 | index | 54.1 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_PRICES | Business Survey | index | 82.1 | index | 84.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_MANUFACTURING_EMPLOYMENT | Business Survey | index | 48.6 | index | 46.4 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-02 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_PMI | Business Survey | index | 54.5 | index | 53.6 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_NEW_ORDERS | Business Survey | index | 57.3 | index | 53.5 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_PRICES | Business Survey | index | 71.3 | index | 70.7 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| ISM_SERVICES_EMPLOYMENT | Business Survey | index | 47.9 | index | 48.0 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-03 | ISM Services PMI | observed |
| CONSUMER_SENTIMENT | Survey | index | 44.8 | index | 48.2 preliminary May reading | revision | May 2026 final | 2026-05-22 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | observed |
| CONSUMER_INFLATION_EXPECTATIONS_1Y | Survey | median expected price change next 12 months | 4.8 | percent | 4.7 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-05-22 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | observed |
| CONSUMER_INFLATION_EXPECTATIONS_5Y | Survey | long-run inflation expectations | 3.9 | percent | 3.5 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-05-22 | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | observed |
| CONSUMER_CONFIDENCE | Survey | index | 93.1 | index | 93.8 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-05-26 | The Conference Board Consumer Confidence | observed |
| HOUSING_STARTS | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 1,465,000 | units | 2.8 percent below March 2026 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census New Residential Construction | observed |
| BUILDING_PERMITS | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 1,442,000 | units | 5.8 percent above March 2026 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-21 | U.S. Census New Residential Construction | observed |
| EXISTING_HOME_SALES | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 4.17 | million units | 3.2 percent above April 2026 | month-over-month change | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales | observed |
| NEW_HOME_SALES | Housing | seasonally adjusted annual rate | 622,000 | units | 663,000 in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-28 | U.S. Census New Residential Sales | observed |
| PENDING_HOME_SALES | Housing | Pending Home Sales Index | 74.8 | index | 1.4 percent above March 2026 | month-over-month change | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-19 | National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales | observed |

## 4. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints

| indicator_id | data_area | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FED_FUNDS_TARGET_RANGE | Monetary Policy | target range | 3.50-3.75 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | since 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-29 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement | observed |
| LATEST_FOMC_DECISION | Monetary Policy | target range decision | maintained 3.50-3.75 percent | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | Apr 28-29 2026 meeting | 2026-04-29 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement | observed |
| NEXT_FOMC_MEETING | Monetary Policy | scheduled meeting | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-17 | date | not source-reported | not source-reported | scheduled | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar | scheduled |
| MARKET_IMPLIED_NEXT_FOMC_PROBABILITY | Market Data | probability of maintaining target range | 97.1 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | as of 2026-06-12 | 2026-06-12 | CME FedWatch via Growbeansprout | forecast_or_estimate |
| EFFECTIVE_FED_FUNDS_RATE | Monetary Policy | effective rate | 3.62 | percent | 3.62 prior four listed observations | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| SOFR | Rates | Secured Overnight Financing Rate | 3.59 | percent | 3.60 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | FRED SOFR | observed |
| TREASURY_3M | Rates | 3-month Treasury bill secondary market rate | 3.64 | percent | 3.64 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_2Y | Rates | 2-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.13 | percent | 4.13 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_5Y | Rates | 5-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.27 | percent | 4.26 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_10Y | Rates | 10-year Treasury constant maturity | 4.55 | percent | 4.53 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TREASURY_30Y | Rates | 30-year Treasury constant maturity | 5.03 | percent | 5.01 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| REAL_YIELD_5Y | Rates | 5-year TIPS constant maturity | 1.83 | percent | 1.82 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| REAL_YIELD_10Y | Rates | 10-year TIPS constant maturity | 2.21 | percent | 2.20 on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| BREAKEVEN_INFLATION_5Y | Market Data | 5-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.40 | percent | 2.44 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | observed |
| BREAKEVEN_INFLATION_10Y | Market Data | 10-year breakeven inflation rate | 2.29 | percent | 2.34 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | observed |
| INFLATION_SWAP_OR_MARKET_EXPECTATION_1Y | Market Data | 1-year inflation swap rate | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| TREASURY_10Y_2Y_SPREAD | Rates | 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread | 0.40 | percent | 0.42 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED 10-Year Treasury Minus 2-Year Treasury | observed |
| TREASURY_10Y_3M_SPREAD | Rates | 10-year minus 3-month Treasury spread | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_DOLLAR_INDEX | Currencies | Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | 120.0831 | index | 119.3615 on 2026-06-04 | prior value | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-08 | FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | observed |
| VIX | Volatility | Cboe VIX spot price | 19.44 | index | -12.51 percent change | source-reported change | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | Cboe VIX | observed |
| MOVE_INDEX | Volatility | ICE BofA MOVE Index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_OAS | Credit | investment-grade option-adjusted spread | not provided | basis points | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| HIGH_YIELD_OAS | Credit | high-yield option-adjusted spread | not provided | basis points | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| FINANCIAL_CONDITIONS_INDEX | Conditions | index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MONEY_MARKET_FUND_ASSETS | Liquidity | total money market fund assets | 7.87 | trillion USD | decreased by 21.48 billion USD | week-over-week change | week ended 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Investment Company Institute Money Market Fund Assets | observed |
| FED_BALANCE_SHEET_TOTAL_ASSETS | Fed | total assets | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| RESERVE_BALANCES_WITH_FEDERAL_RESERVE | Fed | reserve balances | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| TREASURY_GENERAL_ACCOUNT | Treasury | TGA balance | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| REVERSE_REPO | Fed | reverse repo | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| M2_MONEY_STOCK | Fed | M2 money stock | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MORTGAGE_30Y_FIXED_RATE | Rates | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average | 6.52 | percent | 6.48 prior week; 6.84 one year ago | prior value and year-over-year comparison | week of 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | Freddie Mac PMMS | observed |

## 5. Commodity And Currency Datapoints

| indicator_id | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI_CRUDE | price | 95.00 | USD/bbl | 94.32 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | FRED WTI Crude Oil | observed |
| BRENT_CRUDE | price | 97.46 | USD/bbl | 97.29 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | FRED Brent Crude Oil | observed |
| NATURAL_GAS | Henry Hub spot price | 3.10 | USD/MMBtu | 3.05 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | FRED Henry Hub Natural Gas | observed |
| GOLD | futures price | 4,094.40 | USD/oz | 4,133.30 prior close | prior value | 2026-06-11 | Yahoo Finance Gold Futures | observed |
| SILVER | price | not provided | USD/oz | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| COPPER | global price | 13,483.75154 | USD/metric ton | 12,890.68773 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | FRED Global Copper Price | observed |
| BROAD_COMMODITY_INDEX | index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_DOLLAR_INDEX | Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | 120.0831 | index | 119.3615 on 2026-06-04 | prior value | 2026-06-05 | FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | observed |
| EURUSD | exchange rate | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| USDJPY | exchange rate | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BITCOIN | Coinbase Bitcoin price | 63,482.72 | USD | 61,570.02 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Bitcoin | observed |
| ETHEREUM | Coinbase Ethereum price | 1,668.89 | USD | 1,622.27 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Ethereum | observed |

## 6. Broad Equity Market Datapoints

| indicator_id | data_area | measure | latest_value | unit | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SP500_INDEX_LEVEL | Equity | index level | 7,394.30 | index | 7,266.99 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED S&P 500 | observed |
| NASDAQ_COMPOSITE_INDEX_LEVEL | Equity | index level | 25,809.660 | index | 25,169.500 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED NASDAQ Composite | observed |
| RUSSELL_2000_INDEX_LEVEL | Equity | index level | 2,921.03 | index | rose 3.0 percent on 2026-06-11 | source-reported change | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | Associated Press market indexes | observed |
| SP500_FORWARD_PE_OR_CAPE | Valuation | forward 12-month P/E ratio | 21.1 | ratio | 19.7 at 2026-03-31 | prior value | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | observed |
| SP500_EARNINGS_GROWTH_ESTIMATE | Earnings | CY 2026 earnings growth estimate | 22.8 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | forecast_or_estimate |
| SP500_EARNINGS_REVISION_OR_BEAT_RATE | Earnings | revision or beat rate | not provided | percent | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_EQUITY_MARKET_BREADTH | Breadth | index or ratio | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_VS_CAP_WEIGHT_CONTEXT | Breadth | comparison index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EQUITY_PUT_CALL_RATIO | Market | ratio | not provided | ratio | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INVESTOR_SENTIMENT_SURVEY | Sentiment | index | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| US_EQUITY_FUND_FLOWS | Flows | net flows | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| ETF_FUND_FLOWS_EQUITY_BOND_CASH | Flows | net flows | not provided | USD | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MARGIN_DEBT_OR_LEVERAGE_DATAPOINT | Leverage | index or level | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| IMPLIED_CORRELATION_OR_REALIZED_CORRELATION | Correlation | index or measure | not provided | index | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |

## 7. Scheduled Macro Events

| event_id | date | event | publisher_or_entity | release_type | consensus_or_forecast_if_source_reported | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NEXT_CPI_RELEASE | outside scoring window | Consumer Price Index, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS Release Calendar | outside_window |
| NEXT_PCE_RELEASE | 2026-06-25 8:30 AM ET | Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | inflation and income release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_PPI_RELEASE | outside scoring window | Producer Price Index, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | inflation release | not source-reported | BLS Release Calendar | outside_window |
| NEXT_EMPLOYMENT_REPORT | 2026-07-02 8:30 AM ET | Employment Situation, June 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS Release Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_RETAIL_SALES_RELEASE | 2026-06-17 8:30 AM ET | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau | economic data release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Retail Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_GDP_RELEASE | 2026-06-25 8:30 AM ET | GDP third estimate and corporate profits, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | economic data release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_ISM_MANUFACTURING_RELEASE | 2026-07-01 10:00 AM ET | ISM Manufacturing PMI, June 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_ISM_SERVICES_RELEASE | 2026-07-06 10:00 AM ET | ISM Services PMI, June 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | business survey release | not source-reported | ISM Report Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_FOMC_DECISION | 2026-06-17 2:00 PM ET | FOMC monetary policy decision | Federal Reserve | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_FOMC_MINUTES | 2026-07-08 2:00 PM ET | FOMC minutes | Federal Reserve | monetary policy minutes | not source-reported | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_TREASURY_REFUNDING_OR_MAJOR_AUCTION | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-18 | 20-year bond reopening and 5-year TIPS reopening auctions | U.S. Treasury | Treasury auctions | not source-reported | U.S. Treasury Tentative Auction Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_ECB_DECISION | outside scoring window | ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision | European Central Bank | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | not provided | outside_window |
| NEXT_BOJ_DECISION | 2026-06-14 to 2026-06-15 | Monetary Policy Meeting | Bank of Japan | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings | scheduled |
| NEXT_BOE_DECISION | 2026-06-18 | MPC summary and minutes | Bank of England | monetary policy decision | not source-reported | Bank of England MPC Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_PBOC_LPR_FIXING | 2026-06-20 | Loan Prime Rate fixing | People's Bank of China and National Interbank Funding Center | policy-rate fixing | not source-reported | not provided | scheduled |
| NEXT_JOBLESS_CLAIMS_RELEASE | 2026-06-18 8:30 AM ET | Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims | U.S. Department of Labor | labor market release | not source-reported | U.S. Department of Labor UI Claims | scheduled |
| NEXT_JOLTS_RELEASE | 2026-06-30 10:00 AM ET | Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | labor market release | not source-reported | BLS JOLTS | scheduled |
| NEXT_DURABLE_GOODS_RELEASE | 2026-06-25 8:30 AM ET | Durable Goods Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, May 2026 advance | U.S. Census Bureau | manufacturing release | not source-reported | U.S. Census M3 Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_TRADE_BALANCE_RELEASE | 2026-07-07 8:30 AM ET | U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis | trade release | not source-reported | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_INDUSTRIAL_PRODUCTION_RELEASE | 2026-06-15 9:15 AM ET | Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization, May 2026 | Federal Reserve | production release | not source-reported | Federal Reserve G.17 Release Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_CONSUMER_SENTIMENT_RELEASE | 2026-06-27 | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, June 2026 final | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | consumer survey release | not source-reported | University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers | scheduled |
| NEXT_CONSUMER_CONFIDENCE_RELEASE | 2026-06-30 10:00 AM ET | Consumer Confidence Index, June 2026 | The Conference Board | consumer survey release | not source-reported | The Conference Board Consumer Confidence | scheduled |
| NEXT_HOUSING_STARTS_RELEASE | 2026-06-16 8:30 AM ET | New Residential Construction, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and HUD | housing release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Economic Indicator Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_EXISTING_HOME_SALES_RELEASE | 2026-07-09 10:00 AM ET | Existing-Home Sales, June 2026 | National Association of Realtors | housing release | not source-reported | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales | scheduled |
| NEXT_NEW_HOME_SALES_RELEASE | 2026-06-24 10:00 AM ET | New Residential Sales, May 2026 | U.S. Census Bureau and HUD | housing release | not source-reported | U.S. Census Economic Indicator Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_INDEX_EARNINGS_UPDATE | not provided | major index earnings update | not provided | earnings update | not source-reported | not provided | not_provided |

## 8. Fixed Asset-Area Datapoints

| row_id | asset_area | requested_datapoint | latest_value_or_fact | unit_if_applicable | source_reported_comparison | comparison_type | period_covered | release_or_observation_date | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH_SHORT_TREASURY_POLICY_RATE | cash and short-duration Treasuries | current federal funds target range or nearest official short-rate policy setting | Federal funds target range 3.50-3.75 percent | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | since 2026-04-29 | 2026-04-29 | Federal Reserve FOMC Statement | policy_or_regulatory_fact |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_CORPORATE_PROFITS | broad US equities | latest official corporate profits or broad index earnings aggregate | Profits from current production increased $40.4 billion in Q1 2026 | USD | increase of $246.9 billion in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_GDP | broad US equities | latest real GDP growth value | Real GDP increased at a 1.6 percent annualized rate in Q1 2026 | percent | 0.5 percent in Q4 2025 | prior value | Q1 2026 | 2026-05-28 | BEA GDP Second Estimate and Corporate Profits | observed |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_VALUATION | broad US equities | latest broad valuation datapoint such as forward P/E, CAPE, or earnings yield if source-reported | S&P 500 forward 12-month P/E ratio 21.1 | ratio | 19.7 at 2026-03-31 | prior value | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | observed |
| BROAD_US_EQUITIES_MARKET_BREADTH | broad US equities | latest broad market breadth datapoint if source-reported | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| NASDAQ_GROWTH_TECH_INDEX_OR_SECTOR_FACT | Nasdaq / growth / technology | latest broad technology sector or Nasdaq-level fact, not single-company news | NASDAQ Composite closed at 25,809.660 on 2026-06-11 | index | 25,169.500 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED NASDAQ Composite | observed |
| LARGE_GROWTH_CONTEXT | large-cap growth | latest broad large-growth style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| LARGE_VALUE_CONTEXT | large-cap value | latest broad large-value style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MID_CAP_CONTEXT | mid-cap equities | latest broad mid-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SMALL_CAP_CONTEXT | small-cap equities | latest broad small-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SMALL_VALUE_CONTEXT | small-cap value | latest broad small-value style, valuation, earnings, or financing fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| DIVIDEND_CONTEXT | dividend equities | latest broad dividend-yield, payout, dividend-growth, or factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| LOW_VOLATILITY_CONTEXT | low-volatility equities | latest broad low-volatility factor, realized volatility, low-beta factor, or minimum-volatility factor fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MOMENTUM_CONTEXT | momentum equities | latest broad momentum factor, factor rotation, or style-index fact from a reliable source | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| COMMUNICATION_SERVICES_CONTEXT | communication services | latest broad sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY_CONTEXT | consumer discretionary | latest broad sector fact or consumer spending datapoint | Retail and food services sales increased 0.5 percent month over month in April 2026 | percent | 1.6 percent in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-14 | U.S. Census Monthly Retail Trade | observed |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES_CONTEXT | consumer staples | latest broad sector fact or consumer spending/inflation datapoint | Food at home CPI increased 0.1 percent month over month and 2.7 percent year over year in May 2026 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-10 | BLS CPI News Release | observed |
| HEALTHCARE_CONTEXT | healthcare | latest broad sector, policy, or spending fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BIOTECH_CONTEXT | biotechnology | latest broad biotech industry, policy, or index-level fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| FINANCIALS_CONTEXT | financials | latest broad banking, credit, or financial-sector fact | Money market fund assets were $7.87 trillion for the week ended 2026-06-10 | USD | decreased by $21.48 billion | week-over-week change | week ended 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Investment Company Institute Money Market Fund Assets | observed |
| REGIONAL_BANKS_CONTEXT | regional banks | latest regional-bank industry, FDIC, credit, or deposit fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INDUSTRIALS_CONTEXT | industrials | latest industrial production, manufacturing, or broad sector fact | Industrial production increased 0.7 percent in April 2026 | percent | -0.3 percent in March 2026 | prior value | Apr 2026 | 2026-05-15 | Federal Reserve G.17 | observed |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE_CONTEXT | aerospace and defense | latest broad defense budget, orders, production, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| ENERGY_CONTEXT | energy | latest broad energy-sector, oil/gas supply, or inventory fact | WTI crude oil spot price was $95.00 per barrel on 2026-06-08 | USD/barrel | $94.32 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-10 | FRED WTI Crude Oil | observed |
| MATERIALS_CONTEXT | materials | latest broad materials, chemicals, or industrial-input fact | Producer Price Index final demand goods increased 2.8 percent in May 2026 | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | May 2026 | 2026-06-11 | BLS PPI News Release | observed |
| METALS_MINING_CONTEXT | metals and mining | latest broad metals/mining production, price, inventory, or forecast fact | Global copper price was $13,483.75154 per metric ton in May 2026 | USD/metric ton | $12,890.68773 in April 2026 | prior value | May 2026 | 2026-06-05 | FRED Global Copper Price | observed |
| UTILITIES_CONTEXT | utilities | latest electricity demand, generation, rate, or broad utility-sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| REAL_ESTATE_CONTEXT | real estate | latest housing, REIT, mortgage, or property-market fact | Existing-home sales were 4.17 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in May 2026 | million units | 3.2 percent above April 2026 | month-over-month change | May 2026 | 2026-06-09 | National Association of Realtors Existing-Home Sales | observed |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY_CONTEXT | intermediate Treasuries | latest Treasury yield or policy fact from macro packet if no separate broad source exists | 5-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 4.27 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 4.26 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| LONG_TREASURY_CONTEXT | long Treasuries | latest long-term Treasury yield or policy fact from macro packet if no separate broad source exists | 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 5.03 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 5.01 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| TIPS_CONTEXT | TIPS | latest real yield or inflation-expectation fact | 10-year TIPS constant maturity yield was 2.21 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 2.20 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS_CONTEXT | aggregate bonds | latest aggregate bond-market yield, duration, or broad fixed-income fact | 10-year Treasury constant maturity yield was 4.55 percent on 2026-06-10 | percent | 4.53 percent on 2026-06-09 | prior value | 2026-06-10 | 2026-06-11 | Federal Reserve H.15 Selected Interest Rates | observed |
| MBS_CONTEXT | agency mortgage-backed bonds | latest mortgage-rate or agency MBS market fact | 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.52 percent for the week of 2026-06-11 | percent | 6.48 percent prior week; 6.84 percent one year ago | prior value and year-over-year comparison | week of 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | Freddie Mac PMMS | observed |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | municipal bonds | latest municipal bond yield, issuance, credit, or fund-flow fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT_CONTEXT | investment-grade credit | latest investment-grade credit spread or broad corporate credit fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT_CONTEXT | high-yield credit | latest high-yield credit spread or default/fund-flow fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS_CONTEXT | emerging-market bonds | latest EM bond spread, yield, flow, or debt fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | international aggregate bonds | latest non-US aggregate bond yield, hedged global bond, currency-hedging, or international rates fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US_CONTEXT | developed ex-US equities | latest developed-market ex-US or MSCI/EAFE-level fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EMERGING_MARKETS_CONTEXT | emerging-market equities | latest broad emerging-market equity, GDP, PMI, flows, currency, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| EUROPE_CONTEXT | Europe equities | latest ECB, euro area GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| JAPAN_CONTEXT | Japan equities | latest BOJ, Japan GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CHINA_CONTEXT | China equities | latest China GDP, PMI, LPR, inflation, trade, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| INDIA_CONTEXT | India equities | latest India GDP, CPI, RBI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CANADA_CONTEXT | Canada equities | latest Bank of Canada, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| UK_CONTEXT | UK equities | latest Bank of England, GDP, CPI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AUSTRALIA_CONTEXT | Australia equities | latest RBA, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SOUTH_KOREA_CONTEXT | South Korea equities | latest Korea GDP, exports, CPI, Bank of Korea, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| TAIWAN_CONTEXT | Taiwan equities | latest Taiwan GDP, exports, inflation, central-bank, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BRAZIL_CONTEXT | Brazil equities | latest Brazil GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| MEXICO_CONTEXT | Mexico equities | latest Mexico GDP, inflation, central-bank, trade, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SOUTH_AFRICA_CONTEXT | South Africa equities | latest South Africa GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| GOLD_CONTEXT | gold | latest broad gold price, demand, central-bank purchases, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| SILVER_CONTEXT | silver | latest broad silver price, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| COPPER_CONTEXT | copper | latest broad copper price, inventory, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AGRICULTURE_CONTEXT | agriculture | latest broad agriculture price, crop, WASDE, or supply fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES_CONTEXT | broad commodities | latest broad commodity index, World Bank, or commodity-market fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| OIL_CONTEXT | oil | latest oil price, inventory, OPEC, EIA, supply, or demand fact | Brent crude oil spot price was $97.46 per barrel on 2026-06-08 | USD/barrel | $97.29 on 2026-06-05 | prior value | 2026-06-08 | 2026-06-10 | FRED Brent Crude Oil | observed |
| US_DOLLAR_CONTEXT | US dollar | latest DXY or broad dollar fact | Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index was 120.0831 on 2026-06-05 | index | 119.3615 on 2026-06-04 | prior value | 2026-06-05 | 2026-06-08 | FRED Nominal Broad U.S. Dollar Index | observed |
| EURO_CONTEXT | euro | latest ECB, EUR/USD, euro-area rate, or currency fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| YEN_CONTEXT | yen | latest BOJ, USD/JPY, Japan rate, or currency fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BITCOIN_CONTEXT | bitcoin proxy | latest bitcoin price, ETF flow, regulatory, or market-structure fact | Coinbase Bitcoin price was $63,482.72 on 2026-06-11 | USD | $61,570.02 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Bitcoin | observed |
| ETHEREUM_CONTEXT | ethereum proxy | latest ethereum price, ETF flow, regulatory, or market-structure fact | Coinbase Ethereum price was $1,668.89 on 2026-06-11 | USD | $1,622.27 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 | 2026-06-11 | FRED Coinbase Ethereum | observed |
| SEMICONDUCTORS_CONTEXT | semiconductors | latest global semiconductor sales, industry shipment, equipment, export, or broad supply-chain fact | NASDAQ Composite closed at 25,809.660 on 2026-06-11 | index | 25,169.500 on 2026-06-10 | prior value | 2026-06-11 close | 2026-06-11 | FRED NASDAQ Composite | observed |
| SOFTWARE_CONTEXT | software | latest broad software price, spending, revenue, or sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| BROAD_AI_TECH_CONTEXT | broad AI technology | latest broad AI spending, investment, infrastructure, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS_CONTEXT | autonomous technology / robotics | latest robotics order, automation, industrial robot, or policy fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| CYBERSECURITY_CONTEXT | cybersecurity | latest broad cybersecurity spending, incident count, policy, or sector fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |
| AI_INFRASTRUCTURE_CONTEXT | AI infrastructure | latest data-center, power demand, capex, chips, cloud infrastructure, or policy fact | S&P 500 CY 2026 earnings growth estimate was 22.8 percent in FactSet Earnings Insight | percent | not source-reported | not source-reported | June 2026 report | 2026-06-06 | FactSet Earnings Insight | forecast_or_estimate |
| SOLAR_CONTEXT | solar | latest solar generation, installation, capacity, policy, or forecast fact | not provided |  | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not provided | not_provided |

## 9. Scheduled Asset-Area Events

| event_id | date | asset_area | event | entity_or_publisher | source | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NEXT_MAJOR_CENTRAL_BANK_EVENTS | 2026-06-14 to 2026-06-18 | cash and short-duration Treasuries; bonds and rates; international equities | BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting; FOMC decision; BOE MPC summary and minutes | Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve; Bank of England | Federal Reserve FOMC Calendar -  Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meetings -  Bank of England MPC Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COUNTRY_INFLATION_RELEASES | 2026-06-25 | broad US equities; bonds and rates; TIPS; consumer sectors | U.S. Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COUNTRY_GDP_RELEASES | 2026-06-25 | broad US equities | U.S. GDP third estimate and corporate profits, Q1 2026 | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis | BEA Release Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COUNTRY_PMI_RELEASES | 2026-07-01 to 2026-07-06 | broad US equities; industrials | ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Services PMI, June 2026 | Institute for Supply Management | ISM Report Calendar | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_COMMODITY_POLICY_OR_INVENTORY_EVENTS | 2026-06-17 and 2026-07-10 | energy; oil; agriculture | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; USDA WASDE July report | U.S. Energy Information Administration; U.S. Department of Agriculture | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report -  USDA WASDE Release Dates | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_ENERGY_REPORTS | 2026-06-17 | energy; oil | Weekly Petroleum Status Report | U.S. Energy Information Administration | EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_TREASURY_OR_CREDIT_EVENTS | 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-18 | intermediate and long Treasuries; TIPS | 20-year bond reopening and 5-year TIPS reopening auctions | U.S. Treasury | U.S. Treasury Tentative Auction Schedule | scheduled |
| NEXT_MAJOR_BROAD_INDEX_EARNINGS_MILESTONE | not scheduled inside scoring window | broad US equities | not scheduled inside scoring window | not provided | not provided | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| NEXT_MAJOR_SECTOR_POLICY_EVENTS | not scheduled inside scoring window | healthcare; sector policy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not provided | not provided | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| NEXT_MAJOR_CRYPTO_REGULATORY_OR_ETF_EVENTS | not scheduled inside scoring window | bitcoin proxy; ethereum proxy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not provided | not provided | not_scheduled_inside_window |

## 10. Missing Or Limited Datapoints

### Macro Missing Data

| section | indicator_or_event_id | missing_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | PCE_GOODS_MOM | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | PCE_SERVICES_MOM | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | U6_UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | RETAIL_SALES_CONTROL_GROUP_MOM | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | CONSUMER_CREDIT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 2. Core Macro Datapoints | US_TRADE_BALANCE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | INFLATION_SWAP_OR_MARKET_EXPECTATION_1Y | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | TREASURY_10Y_3M_SPREAD | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | MOVE_INDEX | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | INVESTMENT_GRADE_OAS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | HIGH_YIELD_OAS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | FINANCIAL_CONDITIONS_INDEX | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | FED_BALANCE_SHEET_TOTAL_ASSETS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | RESERVE_BALANCES_WITH_FEDERAL_RESERVE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | TREASURY_GENERAL_ACCOUNT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | REVERSE_REPO | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 3. Rates Credit Liquidity Volatility Datapoints | M2_MONEY_STOCK | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | SILVER | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | BROAD_COMMODITY_INDEX | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | EURUSD | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 4. Commodity And Currency Datapoints | USDJPY | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | SP500_EARNINGS_REVISION_OR_BEAT_RATE | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | US_EQUITY_MARKET_BREADTH | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | EQUAL_WEIGHT_VS_CAP_WEIGHT_CONTEXT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | EQUITY_PUT_CALL_RATIO | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | INVESTOR_SENTIMENT_SURVEY | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | US_EQUITY_FUND_FLOWS | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | ETF_FUND_FLOWS_EQUITY_BOND_CASH | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | MARGIN_DEBT_OR_LEVERAGE_DATAPOINT | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 5. Broad Equity Market Datapoints | IMPLIED_CORRELATION_OR_REALIZED_CORRELATION | latest requested datapoint | not provided in source reports |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_CPI_RELEASE | Consumer Price Index, June 2026 | outside_window |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_PPI_RELEASE | Producer Price Index, June 2026 | outside_window |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_ECB_DECISION | ECB Governing Council monetary policy decision | outside_window |
| 6. Scheduled Macro Events | NEXT_MAJOR_INDEX_EARNINGS_UPDATE | major index earnings update | not_provided |

### Asset-Area Missing Data

| section | row_or_event_id | asset_area | missing_or_limited_item | note |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Section 2 | BROAD_US_EQUITIES_MARKET_BREADTH | broad US equities | latest broad market breadth datapoint if source-reported | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | LARGE_GROWTH_CONTEXT | large-cap growth | latest broad large-growth style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | LARGE_VALUE_CONTEXT | large-cap value | latest broad large-value style fact, valuation fact, earnings fact, or factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MID_CAP_CONTEXT | mid-cap equities | latest broad mid-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SMALL_CAP_CONTEXT | small-cap equities | latest broad small-cap index, earnings, financing, or domestic-growth fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SMALL_VALUE_CONTEXT | small-cap value | latest broad small-value style, valuation, earnings, or financing fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | DIVIDEND_CONTEXT | dividend equities | latest broad dividend-yield, payout, dividend-growth, or factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | LOW_VOLATILITY_CONTEXT | low-volatility equities | latest broad low-volatility factor, realized volatility, low-beta factor, or minimum-volatility factor fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MOMENTUM_CONTEXT | momentum equities | latest broad momentum factor, factor rotation, or style-index fact from a reliable source | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | COMMUNICATION_SERVICES_CONTEXT | communication services | latest broad sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | HEALTHCARE_CONTEXT | healthcare | latest broad sector, policy, or spending fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BIOTECH_CONTEXT | biotechnology | latest broad biotech industry, policy, or index-level fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | REGIONAL_BANKS_CONTEXT | regional banks | latest regional-bank industry, FDIC, credit, or deposit fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AEROSPACE_DEFENSE_CONTEXT | aerospace and defense | latest broad defense budget, orders, production, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | UTILITIES_CONTEXT | utilities | latest electricity demand, generation, rate, or broad utility-sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MUNICIPAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | municipal bonds | latest municipal bond yield, issuance, credit, or fund-flow fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT_CONTEXT | investment-grade credit | latest investment-grade credit spread or broad corporate credit fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT_CONTEXT | high-yield credit | latest high-yield credit spread or default/fund-flow fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS_CONTEXT | emerging-market bonds | latest EM bond spread, yield, flow, or debt fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | INTERNATIONAL_BONDS_CONTEXT | international aggregate bonds | latest non-US aggregate bond yield, hedged global bond, currency-hedging, or international rates fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | DEVELOPED_EX_US_CONTEXT | developed ex-US equities | latest developed-market ex-US or MSCI/EAFE-level fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EMERGING_MARKETS_CONTEXT | emerging-market equities | latest broad emerging-market equity, GDP, PMI, flows, currency, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EUROPE_CONTEXT | Europe equities | latest ECB, euro area GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | JAPAN_CONTEXT | Japan equities | latest BOJ, Japan GDP, inflation, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | CHINA_CONTEXT | China equities | latest China GDP, PMI, LPR, inflation, trade, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | INDIA_CONTEXT | India equities | latest India GDP, CPI, RBI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | CANADA_CONTEXT | Canada equities | latest Bank of Canada, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | UK_CONTEXT | UK equities | latest Bank of England, GDP, CPI, PMI, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AUSTRALIA_CONTEXT | Australia equities | latest RBA, GDP, CPI, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOUTH_KOREA_CONTEXT | South Korea equities | latest Korea GDP, exports, CPI, Bank of Korea, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | TAIWAN_CONTEXT | Taiwan equities | latest Taiwan GDP, exports, inflation, central-bank, semiconductor export, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BRAZIL_CONTEXT | Brazil equities | latest Brazil GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | MEXICO_CONTEXT | Mexico equities | latest Mexico GDP, inflation, central-bank, trade, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOUTH_AFRICA_CONTEXT | South Africa equities | latest South Africa GDP, inflation, central-bank, commodity, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | GOLD_CONTEXT | gold | latest broad gold price, demand, central-bank purchases, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SILVER_CONTEXT | silver | latest broad silver price, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | COPPER_CONTEXT | copper | latest broad copper price, inventory, demand, supply, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AGRICULTURE_CONTEXT | agriculture | latest broad agriculture price, crop, WASDE, or supply fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BROAD_COMMODITIES_CONTEXT | broad commodities | latest broad commodity index, World Bank, or commodity-market fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | EURO_CONTEXT | euro | latest ECB, EUR/USD, euro-area rate, or currency fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | YEN_CONTEXT | yen | latest BOJ, USD/JPY, Japan rate, or currency fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOFTWARE_CONTEXT | software | latest broad software price, spending, revenue, or sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | BROAD_AI_TECH_CONTEXT | broad AI technology | latest broad AI spending, investment, infrastructure, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS_CONTEXT | autonomous technology / robotics | latest robotics order, automation, industrial robot, or policy fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | CYBERSECURITY_CONTEXT | cybersecurity | latest broad cybersecurity spending, incident count, policy, or sector fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 2 | SOLAR_CONTEXT | solar | latest solar generation, installation, capacity, policy, or forecast fact | not provided in source reports |
| Section 3 | NEXT_MAJOR_BROAD_INDEX_EARNINGS_MILESTONE | broad US equities | not scheduled inside scoring window | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| Section 3 | NEXT_MAJOR_SECTOR_POLICY_EVENTS | healthcare; sector policy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not_scheduled_inside_window |
| Section 3 | NEXT_MAJOR_CRYPTO_REGULATORY_OR_ETF_EVENTS | bitcoin proxy; ethereum proxy | not scheduled inside scoring window | not_scheduled_inside_window |

## 11. Full-Universe Trailing Returns

# Full-Universe Trailing Returns

This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-11
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-06-11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-11 | 0.08% | 0.28% | 1.77% | 3.87% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -2.55% | -0.06% | 7.66% | 24.09% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -2.43% | 0.42% | 7.83% | 24.48% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -3.17% | 1.40% | 14.92% | 35.34% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | -4.15% | -1.44% | 1.71% | 19.30% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | -0.52% | 2.38% | 13.63% | 27.55% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-11 | 0.05% | 2.96% | 11.74% | 25.20% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-11 | -0.55% | 2.77% | 13.23% | 37.40% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | 0.36% | 2.94% | 14.89% | 40.23% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.18% | 2.42% | 18.51% | 25.78% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | 1.96% | 1.20% | 4.89% | 4.07% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.11% | 5.20% | 25.03% | 38.39% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -5.16% | 4.57% | 24.15% | 53.32% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.88% | -3.23% | -3.40% | 8.64% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.82% | -1.68% | -2.85% | 9.17% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 3.94% | 0.98% | 9.69% | 7.55% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 1.32% | 5.65% | 1.17% | 15.53% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 0.82% | 2.02% | -3.28% | 4.76% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.57% | 0.46% | 11.73% | 23.05% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -2.77% | -0.78% | 26.14% | 36.65% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.77% | -1.76% | 14.60% | 18.61% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 0.25% | -2.52% | 3.82% | 11.96% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 1.17% | 0.76% | 12.04% | 10.64% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.23% | 0.36% | -0.27% | 4.02% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.56% | 1.56% | -0.27% | 4.37% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | -0.16% | -0.22% | 1.25% | 4.90% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.21% | 0.86% | 0.69% | 5.82% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.14% | 0.60% | 2.02% | 6.61% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.74% | 5.01% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.74% | 1.92% | 15.66% | 30.40% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.01% | -0.49% | 10.67% | 23.68% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.64% | 2.70% | 9.02% | 18.82% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.07% | 0.13% | 13.60% | 30.91% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.49% | -6.65% | -10.83% | -0.56% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.48% | 0.57% | -10.79% | -13.63% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -6.11% | -10.80% | -1.75% | 25.36% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -3.42% | -8.83% | 30.00% | 36.02% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -2.88% | 8.59% | 64.83% | 133.44% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -9.13% | 1.65% | -17.18% | -14.06% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -6.05% | 4.80% | 23.85% | 52.17% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -6.66% | -3.88% | 11.18% | 54.61% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -5.77% | 14.20% | 13.33% | 18.11% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-11 | -11.56% | 1.05% | 26.52% | 80.37% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -8.01% | -4.25% | 13.05% | 84.65% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -0.51% | 2.91% | 8.60% | 19.07% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-11 | -0.51% | -1.61% | 8.25% | 57.90% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-11 | 3.39% | 6.04% | 8.63% | 27.59% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-11 | 1.93% | 4.73% | 13.41% | 31.33% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -1.57% | 0.38% | 9.12% | 30.11% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.04% | 0.64% | 9.53% | 20.73% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.28% | -1.23% | 10.58% | 12.43% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.47% | 11.45% | 114.27% | 203.73% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -3.12% | 9.26% | 62.58% | 91.96% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.09% | -8.97% | 8.75% | 30.11% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.04% | -3.31% | 10.95% | 30.39% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.08% | -6.27% | 0.61% | 30.82% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.33% | 0.67% | 1.30% | 6.49% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | -0.12% | 0.58% | 1.69% | 6.65% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.18% | 1.00% | 2.57% | 10.92% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.21% | 1.01% | 0.99% | 1.99% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -9.20% | -22.57% | 5.55% | 84.58% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -1.99% | -3.71% | 15.86% | 29.71% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -1.46% | -7.95% | 2.26% | 0.71% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -5.78% | -10.72% | 86.04% | 72.19% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-11 | 0.40% | 1.82% | 3.58% | 5.89% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-11 | -0.25% | -1.29% | -0.97% | 1.60% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-11 | 0.14% | -1.44% | -2.83% | -9.81% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-11 | 0.08% | -21.29% | -30.81% | -41.70% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-11 | -5.15% | -26.33% | -47.91% | -40.40% | pass |

## 12. Final Neutrality Statement

This briefing provides fixed factual datapoints only. It does not rank, recommend, analyze, or map facts to CapitalBench options. Missing rows are preserved for comparability; inclusion, order, grouping, and row count are not evidence of expected return.

Full-Universe Trailing Returns market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md

This table is mechanically calculated from Tiingo EOD adjusted close data. It is sorted in the option order from `options.yaml`, not by performance. CASH is shown as 0.00%.

- Source: tiingo_eod_adj_close
- As-of date requested: 2026-06-11
- Failed options: 0

| option_id | symbol | option_group | as_of_price_date | return_7d | return_30d | return_6m | return_1y | status |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CASH |  | cash | 2026-06-11 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | cash |
| SHORT_TREASURY | BIL | cash_and_short_duration | 2026-06-11 | 0.08% | 0.28% | 1.77% | 3.87% | pass |
| SP500 | SPY | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -2.55% | -0.06% | 7.66% | 24.09% | pass |
| TOTAL_US_MARKET | VTI | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -2.43% | 0.42% | 7.83% | 24.48% | pass |
| NASDAQ100 | QQQ | us_growth_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -3.17% | 1.40% | 14.92% | 35.34% | pass |
| LARGE_GROWTH | IWF | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | -4.15% | -1.44% | 1.71% | 19.30% | pass |
| LARGE_VALUE | IWD | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | -0.52% | 2.38% | 13.63% | 27.55% | pass |
| MID_CAP | IJH | us_size_factor | 2026-06-11 | 0.05% | 2.96% | 11.74% | 25.20% | pass |
| SMALL_CAP | IWM | us_size_factor | 2026-06-11 | -0.55% | 2.77% | 13.23% | 37.40% | pass |
| SMALL_VALUE | IWN | us_style_factor | 2026-06-11 | 0.36% | 2.94% | 14.89% | 40.23% | pass |
| DIVIDEND | SCHD | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.18% | 2.42% | 18.51% | 25.78% | pass |
| LOW_VOL | SPLV | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | 1.96% | 1.20% | 4.89% | 4.07% | pass |
| MOMENTUM | MTUM | us_factor_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.11% | 5.20% | 25.03% | 38.39% | pass |
| TECHNOLOGY | XLK | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -5.16% | 4.57% | 24.15% | 53.32% | pass |
| COMMUNICATIONS | XLC | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.88% | -3.23% | -3.40% | 8.64% | pass |
| CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY | XLY | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.82% | -1.68% | -2.85% | 9.17% | pass |
| CONSUMER_STAPLES | XLP | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 3.94% | 0.98% | 9.69% | 7.55% | pass |
| HEALTHCARE | XLV | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 1.32% | 5.65% | 1.17% | 15.53% | pass |
| FINANCIALS | XLF | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 0.82% | 2.02% | -3.28% | 4.76% | pass |
| INDUSTRIALS | XLI | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.57% | 0.46% | 11.73% | 23.05% | pass |
| ENERGY | XLE | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -2.77% | -0.78% | 26.14% | 36.65% | pass |
| MATERIALS | XLB | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | -0.77% | -1.76% | 14.60% | 18.61% | pass |
| UTILITIES | XLU | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 0.25% | -2.52% | 3.82% | 11.96% | pass |
| REAL_ESTATE | XLRE | us_sector | 2026-06-11 | 1.17% | 0.76% | 12.04% | 10.64% | pass |
| INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY | IEF | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.23% | 0.36% | -0.27% | 4.02% | pass |
| LONG_TREASURY | TLT | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.56% | 1.56% | -0.27% | 4.37% | pass |
| TIPS | TIP | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | -0.16% | -0.22% | 1.25% | 4.90% | pass |
| INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT | LQD | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.21% | 0.86% | 0.69% | 5.82% | pass |
| HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT | HYG | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.14% | 0.60% | 2.02% | 6.61% | pass |
| AGGREGATE_BONDS | AGG | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.22% | 0.59% | 0.74% | 5.01% | pass |
| DEVELOPED_EX_US | VEA | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.74% | 1.92% | 15.66% | 30.40% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKETS | VWO | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.01% | -0.49% | 10.67% | 23.68% | pass |
| EUROPE | VGK | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.64% | 2.70% | 9.02% | 18.82% | pass |
| JAPAN | EWJ | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.07% | 0.13% | 13.60% | 30.91% | pass |
| CHINA | MCHI | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.49% | -6.65% | -10.83% | -0.56% | pass |
| INDIA | INDA | international_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.48% | 0.57% | -10.79% | -13.63% | pass |
| GOLD | IAU | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -6.11% | -10.80% | -1.75% | 25.36% | pass |
| BROAD_COMMODITIES | PDBC | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -3.42% | -8.83% | 30.00% | 36.02% | pass |
| SEMICONDUCTORS | SMH | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -2.88% | 8.59% | 64.83% | 133.44% | pass |
| SOFTWARE | IGV | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -9.13% | 1.65% | -17.18% | -14.06% | pass |
| BROAD_AI_TECH | AIQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -6.05% | 4.80% | 23.85% | 52.17% | pass |
| AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS | ARKQ | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -6.66% | -3.88% | 11.18% | 54.61% | pass |
| CYBERSECURITY | CIBR | ai_and_technology | 2026-06-11 | -5.77% | 14.20% | 13.33% | 18.11% | pass |
| SOLAR | TAN | clean_energy | 2026-06-11 | -11.56% | 1.05% | 26.52% | 80.37% | pass |
| METALS_MINING | XME | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -8.01% | -4.25% | 13.05% | 84.65% | pass |
| EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500 | RSP | us_broad_market | 2026-06-11 | -0.51% | 2.91% | 8.60% | 19.07% | pass |
| BIOTECH | XBI | healthcare_and_biotech | 2026-06-11 | -0.51% | -1.61% | 8.25% | 57.90% | pass |
| REGIONAL_BANKS | KRE | us_industry | 2026-06-11 | 3.39% | 6.04% | 8.63% | 27.59% | pass |
| AEROSPACE_DEFENSE | ITA | us_industry | 2026-06-11 | 1.93% | 4.73% | 13.41% | 31.33% | pass |
| CANADA | EWC | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -1.57% | 0.38% | 9.12% | 30.11% | pass |
| UNITED_KINGDOM | EWU | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.04% | 0.64% | 9.53% | 20.73% | pass |
| AUSTRALIA | EWA | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.28% | -1.23% | 10.58% | 12.43% | pass |
| SOUTH_KOREA | EWY | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.47% | 11.45% | 114.27% | 203.73% | pass |
| TAIWAN | EWT | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -3.12% | 9.26% | 62.58% | 91.96% | pass |
| BRAZIL | EWZ | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | 0.09% | -8.97% | 8.75% | 30.11% | pass |
| MEXICO | EWW | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -0.04% | -3.31% | 10.95% | 30.39% | pass |
| SOUTH_AFRICA | EZA | country_equity | 2026-06-11 | -2.08% | -6.27% | 0.61% | 30.82% | pass |
| MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS | MBB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.33% | 0.67% | 1.30% | 6.49% | pass |
| MUNICIPAL_BONDS | MUB | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | -0.12% | 0.58% | 1.69% | 6.65% | pass |
| EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS | EMB | credit | 2026-06-11 | 0.18% | 1.00% | 2.57% | 10.92% | pass |
| INTERNATIONAL_BONDS | BNDX | bonds_and_rates | 2026-06-11 | 0.21% | 1.01% | 0.99% | 1.99% | pass |
| SILVER | SLV | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -9.20% | -22.57% | 5.55% | 84.58% | pass |
| COPPER | CPER | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -1.99% | -3.71% | 15.86% | 29.71% | pass |
| AGRICULTURE | DBA | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -1.46% | -7.95% | 2.26% | 0.71% | pass |
| OIL | USO | commodities | 2026-06-11 | -5.78% | -10.72% | 86.04% | 72.19% | pass |
| US_DOLLAR | UUP | currencies | 2026-06-11 | 0.40% | 1.82% | 3.58% | 5.89% | pass |
| EURO | FXE | currencies | 2026-06-11 | -0.25% | -1.29% | -0.97% | 1.60% | pass |
| YEN | FXY | currencies | 2026-06-11 | 0.14% | -1.44% | -2.83% | -9.81% | pass |
| BITCOIN_ETF | IBIT | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-11 | 0.08% | -21.29% | -30.81% | -41.70% | pass |
| ETHEREUM_ETF | ETHA | crypto_proxies | 2026-06-11 | -5.15% | -26.33% | -47.91% | -40.40% | pass |

Rendered Options In Prompt options.yaml rendered for model prompt

Allowed option:
ID: CASH
Name: Cash / Do Not Invest
Symbol: N/A
Asset class: cash
Category: cash
Group: cash
Risk bucket: cash
Description: Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: SHORT_TREASURY
Name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
Symbol: BIL
Asset class: cash_like
Category: treasury_bills
Group: cash_and_short_duration
Risk bucket: low
Description: Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk.

Allowed option:
ID: SP500
Name: S&P 500
Symbol: SPY
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: TOTAL_US_MARKET
Name: Total US Stock Market
Symbol: VTI
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: NASDAQ100
Name: Nasdaq 100
Symbol: QQQ
Asset class: equity
Category: growth_equity
Group: us_growth_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_GROWTH
Name: US Large-Cap Growth
Symbol: IWF
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates.

Allowed option:
ID: LARGE_VALUE
Name: US Large-Cap Value
Symbol: IWD
Asset class: equity
Category: style_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: MID_CAP
Name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IJH
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_CAP
Name: US Small-Cap Stocks
Symbol: IWM
Asset class: equity
Category: size_factor
Group: us_size_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: SMALL_VALUE
Name: US Small-Cap Value
Symbol: IWN
Asset class: equity
Category: style_and_size_factor
Group: us_style_factor
Risk bucket: high
Description: US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics.

Allowed option:
ID: DIVIDEND
Name: US Dividend Equities
Symbol: SCHD
Asset class: equity
Category: dividend_equity
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories.

Allowed option:
ID: LOW_VOL
Name: US Low Volatility Equities
Symbol: SPLV
Asset class: equity
Category: low_volatility_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy.

Allowed option:
ID: MOMENTUM
Name: US Momentum Equities
Symbol: MTUM
Asset class: equity
Category: momentum_factor
Group: us_factor_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations.

Allowed option:
ID: TECHNOLOGY
Name: Technology Sector
Symbol: XLK
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: COMMUNICATIONS
Name: Communication Services Sector
Symbol: XLC
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
Name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
Symbol: XLY
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence.

Allowed option:
ID: CONSUMER_STAPLES
Name: Consumer Staples Sector
Symbol: XLP
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector.

Allowed option:
ID: HEALTHCARE
Name: Healthcare Sector
Symbol: XLV
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers.

Allowed option:
ID: FINANCIALS
Name: Financials Sector
Symbol: XLF
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: INDUSTRIALS
Name: Industrials Sector
Symbol: XLI
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies.

Allowed option:
ID: ENERGY
Name: Energy Sector
Symbol: XLE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline.

Allowed option:
ID: MATERIALS
Name: Materials Sector
Symbol: XLB
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies.

Allowed option:
ID: UTILITIES
Name: Utilities Sector
Symbol: XLU
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows.

Allowed option:
ID: REAL_ESTATE
Name: Real Estate Sector
Symbol: XLRE
Asset class: equity
Category: us_sector
Group: us_sector
Risk bucket: high
Description: US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
Name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: IEF
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: LONG_TREASURY
Name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
Symbol: TLT
Asset class: bond
Category: treasury_duration
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: high
Description: Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds.

Allowed option:
ID: TIPS
Name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
Symbol: TIP
Asset class: bond
Category: inflation_linked_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
Name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Symbol: LQD
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
Name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
Symbol: HYG
Asset class: bond
Category: corporate_credit
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: AGGREGATE_BONDS
Name: US Aggregate Bond Market
Symbol: AGG
Asset class: bond
Category: aggregate_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds.

Allowed option:
ID: DEVELOPED_EX_US
Name: Developed Markets ex-US
Symbol: VEA
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKETS
Name: Emerging Markets
Symbol: VWO
Asset class: equity
Category: international_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk.

Allowed option:
ID: EUROPE
Name: Europe Equities
Symbol: VGK
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings.

Allowed option:
ID: JAPAN
Name: Japan Equities
Symbol: EWJ
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: CHINA
Name: China Equities
Symbol: MCHI
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: INDIA
Name: India Equities
Symbol: INDA
Asset class: equity
Category: regional_equity
Group: international_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: GOLD
Name: Gold
Symbol: IAU
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_COMMODITIES
Name: Broad Commodities
Symbol: PDBC
Asset class: commodity
Category: broad_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand.

Allowed option:
ID: SEMICONDUCTORS
Name: Semiconductors
Symbol: SMH
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: SOFTWARE
Name: Software
Symbol: IGV
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: BROAD_AI_TECH
Name: Broad AI Technology
Symbol: AIQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services.

Allowed option:
ID: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
Name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
Symbol: ARKQ
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms.

Allowed option:
ID: CYBERSECURITY
Name: Cybersecurity
Symbol: CIBR
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: ai_and_technology
Risk bucket: high
Description: Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services.

Allowed option:
ID: SOLAR
Name: Solar Energy
Symbol: TAN
Asset class: equity
Category: thematic_equity
Group: clean_energy
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains.

Allowed option:
ID: METALS_MINING
Name: Metals and Mining
Symbol: XME
Asset class: equity
Category: commodity_equity
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries.

Allowed option:
ID: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
Name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
Symbol: RSP
Asset class: equity
Category: broad_us_equity
Group: us_broad_market
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting.

Allowed option:
ID: BIOTECH
Name: Biotechnology
Symbol: XBI
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: healthcare_and_biotech
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: REGIONAL_BANKS
Name: Regional Banks
Symbol: KRE
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
Name: Aerospace and Defense
Symbol: ITA
Asset class: equity
Category: industry_equity
Group: us_industry
Risk bucket: high
Description: US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: CANADA
Name: Canada Equities
Symbol: EWC
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: UNITED_KINGDOM
Name: United Kingdom Equities
Symbol: EWU
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors.

Allowed option:
ID: AUSTRALIA
Name: Australia Equities
Symbol: EWA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_KOREA
Name: South Korea Equities
Symbol: EWY
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics.

Allowed option:
ID: TAIWAN
Name: Taiwan Equities
Symbol: EWT
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk.

Allowed option:
ID: BRAZIL
Name: Brazil Equities
Symbol: EWZ
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MEXICO
Name: Mexico Equities
Symbol: EWW
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: high
Description: Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity.

Allowed option:
ID: SOUTH_AFRICA
Name: South Africa Equities
Symbol: EZA
Asset class: equity
Category: country_equity
Group: country_equity
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows.

Allowed option:
ID: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
Name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
Symbol: MBB
Asset class: bond
Category: securitized_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions.

Allowed option:
ID: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
Name: Municipal Bonds
Symbol: MUB
Asset class: bond
Category: municipal_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: low
Description: US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
Name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
Symbol: EMB
Asset class: bond
Category: emerging_market_debt
Group: credit
Risk bucket: high
Description: US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
Name: International Aggregate Bonds
Symbol: BNDX
Asset class: bond
Category: international_bonds
Group: bonds_and_rates
Risk bucket: medium
Description: International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy.

Allowed option:
ID: SILVER
Name: Silver
Symbol: SLV
Asset class: commodity
Category: precious_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations.

Allowed option:
ID: COPPER
Name: Copper
Symbol: CPER
Asset class: commodity
Category: industrial_metals
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes.

Allowed option:
ID: AGRICULTURE
Name: Agriculture Commodities
Symbol: DBA
Asset class: commodity
Category: agriculture
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: high
Description: Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves.

Allowed option:
ID: OIL
Name: Crude Oil
Symbol: USO
Asset class: commodity
Category: energy_commodities
Group: commodities
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure.

Allowed option:
ID: US_DOLLAR
Name: US Dollar
Symbol: UUP
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand.

Allowed option:
ID: EURO
Name: Euro
Symbol: FXE
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: medium
Description: Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements.

Allowed option:
ID: YEN
Name: Japanese Yen
Symbol: FXY
Asset class: currency
Category: currency
Group: currencies
Risk bucket: high
Description: Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand.

Allowed option:
ID: BITCOIN_ETF
Name: Bitcoin ETF
Symbol: IBIT
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite.

Allowed option:
ID: ETHEREUM_ETF
Name: Ethereum ETF
Symbol: ETHA
Asset class: crypto_proxy
Category: crypto_asset
Group: crypto_proxies
Risk bucket: very_high
Description: Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite.

Source Options YAML options.yaml

options:
  - id: CASH
    name: Cash / Do Not Invest
    symbol: null
    tiingo_symbol: null
    asset_class: cash
    category: cash
    option_group: cash
    risk_bucket: cash
    currency: USD
    is_cash: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cash position with no market exposure. Return is treated as 0 unless a round explicitly defines a cash yield proxy."

  - id: SHORT_TREASURY
    name: Short-Term Treasury Bills
    symbol: BIL
    tiingo_symbol: BIL
    asset_class: cash_like
    category: treasury_bills
    option_group: cash_and_short_duration
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Short-term US Treasury bill exposure. Typically used as a cash-like proxy with low duration risk."

  - id: SP500
    name: S&P 500
    symbol: SPY
    tiingo_symbol: SPY
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    is_benchmark: true
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US large-cap equity exposure. Represents large publicly traded US companies across multiple sectors."

  - id: TOTAL_US_MARKET
    name: Total US Stock Market
    symbol: VTI
    tiingo_symbol: VTI
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad exposure to the total US equity market, including large-, mid-, and small-cap companies. Useful as a diversified US equity proxy."

  - id: NASDAQ100
    name: Nasdaq 100
    symbol: QQQ
    tiingo_symbol: QQQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: growth_equity
    option_group: us_growth_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Large-cap, growth-oriented US equity exposure with heavy weights in technology and communication services. Sensitive to mega-cap earnings, rates, and growth-stock sentiment."

  - id: LARGE_GROWTH
    name: US Large-Cap Growth
    symbol: IWF
    tiingo_symbol: IWF
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap growth stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with higher expected growth, higher valuations, and greater sensitivity to interest rates."

  - id: LARGE_VALUE
    name: US Large-Cap Value
    symbol: IWD
    tiingo_symbol: IWD
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US large-cap value stock exposure. Often tilted toward companies with lower valuation multiples, dividends, financials, energy, and cyclical sectors."

  - id: MID_CAP
    name: US Mid-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IJH
    tiingo_symbol: IJH
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US mid-cap equity exposure. Represents companies between large caps and small caps, with sensitivity to domestic growth, financing conditions, and risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_CAP
    name: US Small-Cap Stocks
    symbol: IWM
    tiingo_symbol: IWM
    asset_class: equity
    category: size_factor
    option_group: us_size_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap equity exposure. Often more sensitive to domestic economic growth, credit conditions, rates, and market risk appetite."

  - id: SMALL_VALUE
    name: US Small-Cap Value
    symbol: IWN
    tiingo_symbol: IWN
    asset_class: equity
    category: style_and_size_factor
    option_group: us_style_factor
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US small-cap value equity exposure. Combines smaller company exposure with value-oriented characteristics."

  - id: DIVIDEND
    name: US Dividend Equities
    symbol: SCHD
    tiingo_symbol: SCHD
    asset_class: equity
    category: dividend_equity
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dividend-oriented equity exposure. Often tilted toward profitable, mature companies with dividend histories."

  - id: LOW_VOL
    name: US Low Volatility Equities
    symbol: SPLV
    tiingo_symbol: SPLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: low_volatility_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure focused on historically lower-volatility stocks. Often used as a defensive equity factor proxy."

  - id: MOMENTUM
    name: US Momentum Equities
    symbol: MTUM
    tiingo_symbol: MTUM
    asset_class: equity
    category: momentum_factor
    option_group: us_factor_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US equity exposure tilted toward stocks with stronger recent price momentum. Sensitive to trend persistence and factor rotations."

  - id: TECHNOLOGY
    name: Technology Sector
    symbol: XLK
    tiingo_symbol: XLK
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US technology sector exposure within large-cap equities. Includes software, hardware, semiconductors, and technology services companies."

  - id: COMMUNICATIONS
    name: Communication Services Sector
    symbol: XLC
    tiingo_symbol: XLC
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US communication services sector exposure. Includes large internet platforms, media, telecom, and entertainment companies."

  - id: CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY
    name: Consumer Discretionary Sector
    symbol: XLY
    tiingo_symbol: XLY
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer discretionary sector exposure. Sensitive to consumer spending, employment, credit conditions, and household confidence."

  - id: CONSUMER_STAPLES
    name: Consumer Staples Sector
    symbol: XLP
    tiingo_symbol: XLP
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US consumer staples sector exposure. Includes companies selling essential consumer products and is often considered a defensive equity sector."

  - id: HEALTHCARE
    name: Healthcare Sector
    symbol: XLV
    tiingo_symbol: XLV
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US healthcare sector exposure. Includes pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, medical devices, healthcare services, and insurers."

  - id: FINANCIALS
    name: Financials Sector
    symbol: XLF
    tiingo_symbol: XLF
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US financial sector exposure. Includes banks, insurers, capital markets firms, and financial services companies."

  - id: INDUSTRIALS
    name: Industrials Sector
    symbol: XLI
    tiingo_symbol: XLI
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US industrial sector exposure. Includes aerospace, machinery, transportation, logistics, and industrial services companies."

  - id: ENERGY
    name: Energy Sector
    symbol: XLE
    tiingo_symbol: XLE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US energy sector exposure. Sensitive to oil and gas prices, production trends, geopolitics, and capital discipline."

  - id: MATERIALS
    name: Materials Sector
    symbol: XLB
    tiingo_symbol: XLB
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US materials sector exposure. Includes chemicals, metals, mining, packaging, and construction materials companies."

  - id: UTILITIES
    name: Utilities Sector
    symbol: XLU
    tiingo_symbol: XLU
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US utilities sector exposure. Often sensitive to interest rates, electricity demand, regulation, and defensive equity flows."

  - id: REAL_ESTATE
    name: Real Estate Sector
    symbol: XLRE
    tiingo_symbol: XLRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: us_sector
    option_group: us_sector
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US listed real estate equity exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, property fundamentals, credit conditions, and real estate valuations."

  - id: INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY
    name: Intermediate-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: IEF
    tiingo_symbol: IEF
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Intermediate-duration US Treasury bond exposure. Sensitive to changes in interest rates, inflation expectations, and growth expectations."

  - id: LONG_TREASURY
    name: Long-Term US Treasury Bonds
    symbol: TLT
    tiingo_symbol: TLT
    asset_class: bond
    category: treasury_duration
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Long-duration US Treasury bond exposure. More sensitive to interest-rate changes than shorter-duration bond funds."

  - id: TIPS
    name: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
    symbol: TIP
    tiingo_symbol: TIP
    asset_class: bond
    category: inflation_linked_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US Treasury inflation-protected bond exposure. Sensitive to real interest rates and inflation expectations."

  - id: INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT
    name: Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
    symbol: LQD
    tiingo_symbol: LQD
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US investment-grade corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, credit spreads, and corporate balance-sheet conditions."

  - id: HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT
    name: High Yield Corporate Bonds
    symbol: HYG
    tiingo_symbol: HYG
    asset_class: bond
    category: corporate_credit
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US high-yield corporate bond exposure. Sensitive to credit spreads, default expectations, liquidity, and risk appetite."

  - id: AGGREGATE_BONDS
    name: US Aggregate Bond Market
    symbol: AGG
    tiingo_symbol: AGG
    asset_class: bond
    category: aggregate_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad US investment-grade bond market exposure. Includes Treasuries, agency securities, mortgage-backed securities, and corporate bonds."

  - id: DEVELOPED_EX_US
    name: Developed Markets ex-US
    symbol: VEA
    tiingo_symbol: VEA
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Developed-market equity exposure outside the United States. Includes regions such as Europe, Japan, Canada, and developed Asia-Pacific markets."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKETS
    name: Emerging Markets
    symbol: VWO
    tiingo_symbol: VWO
    asset_class: equity
    category: international_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Emerging-market equity exposure. Sensitive to global growth, currency moves, capital flows, commodity cycles, and country-specific policy risk."

  - id: EUROPE
    name: Europe Equities
    symbol: VGK
    tiingo_symbol: VGK
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "European equity exposure. Sensitive to European growth, monetary policy, currency trends, energy costs, and regional earnings."

  - id: JAPAN
    name: Japan Equities
    symbol: EWJ
    tiingo_symbol: EWJ
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese equity exposure. Sensitive to Japanese corporate earnings, yen movements, monetary policy, and global trade conditions."

  - id: CHINA
    name: China Equities
    symbol: MCHI
    tiingo_symbol: MCHI
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "China equity exposure through publicly traded Chinese companies. Sensitive to Chinese growth, policy actions, currency moves, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: INDIA
    name: India Equities
    symbol: INDA
    tiingo_symbol: INDA
    asset_class: equity
    category: regional_equity
    option_group: international_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Indian equity exposure. Sensitive to Indian economic growth, currency moves, domestic policy, valuations, and foreign capital flows."

  - id: GOLD
    name: Gold
    symbol: IAU
    tiingo_symbol: IAU
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Gold exposure through a listed gold trust. Sensitive to real interest rates, US dollar strength, inflation expectations, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BROAD_COMMODITIES
    name: Broad Commodities
    symbol: PDBC
    tiingo_symbol: PDBC
    asset_class: commodity
    category: broad_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad commodity exposure through a diversified commodity strategy ETF. Sensitive to energy, metals, agriculture, inflation expectations, and global demand."

  - id: SEMICONDUCTORS
    name: Semiconductors
    symbol: SMH
    tiingo_symbol: SMH
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Semiconductor equity exposure. Includes companies involved in chip design, manufacturing, equipment, and related supply chains."

  - id: SOFTWARE
    name: Software
    symbol: IGV
    tiingo_symbol: IGV
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Software equity exposure. Includes companies in application software, infrastructure software, and related technology services."

  - id: BROAD_AI_TECH
    name: Broad AI Technology
    symbol: AIQ
    tiingo_symbol: AIQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Broad artificial intelligence and technology equity exposure. Includes companies associated with AI applications, infrastructure, data, and related technology services."

  - id: AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS
    name: Autonomous Technology and Robotics
    symbol: ARKQ
    tiingo_symbol: ARKQ
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Autonomous technology and robotics equity exposure. Includes companies associated with automation, robotics, autonomous transport, energy storage, and related technology platforms."

  - id: CYBERSECURITY
    name: Cybersecurity
    symbol: CIBR
    tiingo_symbol: CIBR
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: ai_and_technology
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Cybersecurity equity exposure. Includes companies providing network security, identity, endpoint, cloud security, and related cybersecurity products and services."

  - id: SOLAR
    name: Solar Energy
    symbol: TAN
    tiingo_symbol: TAN
    asset_class: equity
    category: thematic_equity
    option_group: clean_energy
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Solar energy equity exposure. Includes companies associated with solar power equipment, development, installation, and related clean-energy supply chains."

  - id: METALS_MINING
    name: Metals and Mining
    symbol: XME
    tiingo_symbol: XME
    asset_class: equity
    category: commodity_equity
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Metals and mining equity exposure. Includes companies involved in steel, aluminum, precious metals, coal, copper, and diversified mining industries."

  - id: EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500
    name: Equal-Weight S&P 500
    symbol: RSP
    tiingo_symbol: RSP
    asset_class: equity
    category: broad_us_equity
    option_group: us_broad_market
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Equal-weight US large-cap equity exposure. Reduces concentration in the largest S&P 500 constituents compared with market-cap weighting."

  - id: BIOTECH
    name: Biotechnology
    symbol: XBI
    tiingo_symbol: XBI
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: healthcare_and_biotech
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US biotechnology equity exposure. Sensitive to clinical data, financing conditions, regulation, mergers, and risk appetite."

  - id: REGIONAL_BANKS
    name: Regional Banks
    symbol: KRE
    tiingo_symbol: KRE
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US regional bank equity exposure. Sensitive to deposit trends, credit quality, yield curves, regulation, and commercial real estate conditions."

  - id: AEROSPACE_DEFENSE
    name: Aerospace and Defense
    symbol: ITA
    tiingo_symbol: ITA
    asset_class: equity
    category: industry_equity
    option_group: us_industry
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US aerospace and defense equity exposure. Sensitive to defense budgets, aircraft demand, supply chains, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: CANADA
    name: Canada Equities
    symbol: EWC
    tiingo_symbol: EWC
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Canadian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to financials, energy, materials, domestic growth, and Canadian dollar conditions."

  - id: UNITED_KINGDOM
    name: United Kingdom Equities
    symbol: EWU
    tiingo_symbol: EWU
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "United Kingdom equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to sterling, UK growth, global financials, energy, and dividend-oriented sectors."

  - id: AUSTRALIA
    name: Australia Equities
    symbol: EWA
    tiingo_symbol: EWA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Australian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to banks, materials, commodity demand, China-linked growth, and Australian dollar conditions."

  - id: SOUTH_KOREA
    name: South Korea Equities
    symbol: EWY
    tiingo_symbol: EWY
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South Korean equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductors, exports, won movements, global trade, and regional geopolitics."

  - id: TAIWAN
    name: Taiwan Equities
    symbol: EWT
    tiingo_symbol: EWT
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Taiwan equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to semiconductor supply chains, global electronics demand, currency movements, and geopolitical risk."

  - id: BRAZIL
    name: Brazil Equities
    symbol: EWZ
    tiingo_symbol: EWZ
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Brazilian equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to commodities, rates, fiscal policy, currency moves, and emerging-market capital flows."

  - id: MEXICO
    name: Mexico Equities
    symbol: EWW
    tiingo_symbol: EWW
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Mexican equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to domestic growth, currency moves, trade links, remittances, and nearshoring activity."

  - id: SOUTH_AFRICA
    name: South Africa Equities
    symbol: EZA
    tiingo_symbol: EZA
    asset_class: equity
    category: country_equity
    option_group: country_equity
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "South African equity exposure through US-listed shares. Sensitive to resources, domestic policy, currency moves, power availability, and emerging-market flows."

  - id: MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS
    name: Agency Mortgage-Backed Bonds
    symbol: MBB
    tiingo_symbol: MBB
    asset_class: bond
    category: securitized_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US agency mortgage-backed securities exposure. Sensitive to interest rates, prepayment behavior, mortgage spreads, and housing finance conditions."

  - id: MUNICIPAL_BONDS
    name: Municipal Bonds
    symbol: MUB
    tiingo_symbol: MUB
    asset_class: bond
    category: municipal_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: low
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US municipal bond exposure. Sensitive to rates, state and local credit conditions, fund flows, and tax-exempt fixed-income demand."

  - id: EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS
    name: Emerging Market USD Bonds
    symbol: EMB
    tiingo_symbol: EMB
    asset_class: bond
    category: emerging_market_debt
    option_group: credit
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar emerging-market bond exposure. Sensitive to sovereign spreads, US rates, currency stress, commodity cycles, and global risk appetite."

  - id: INTERNATIONAL_BONDS
    name: International Aggregate Bonds
    symbol: BNDX
    tiingo_symbol: BNDX
    asset_class: bond
    category: international_bonds
    option_group: bonds_and_rates
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "International investment-grade bond exposure. Sensitive to global rates, currency hedging, regional credit conditions, and non-US monetary policy."

  - id: SILVER
    name: Silver
    symbol: SLV
    tiingo_symbol: SLV
    asset_class: commodity
    category: precious_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Silver exposure through a listed trust. Sensitive to precious-metals demand, industrial usage, real rates, US dollar moves, and inflation expectations."

  - id: COPPER
    name: Copper
    symbol: CPER
    tiingo_symbol: CPER
    asset_class: commodity
    category: industrial_metals
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Copper exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to industrial demand, China-linked growth, supply conditions, inventories, and electrification themes."

  - id: AGRICULTURE
    name: Agriculture Commodities
    symbol: DBA
    tiingo_symbol: DBA
    asset_class: commodity
    category: agriculture
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Agricultural commodity exposure through a diversified exchange-traded product. Sensitive to weather, crop conditions, global demand, inventories, and currency moves."

  - id: OIL
    name: Crude Oil
    symbol: USO
    tiingo_symbol: USO
    asset_class: commodity
    category: energy_commodities
    option_group: commodities
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Crude oil exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to supply, demand, inventories, OPEC policy, geopolitical risk, and futures-curve structure."

  - id: US_DOLLAR
    name: US Dollar
    symbol: UUP
    tiingo_symbol: UUP
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "US dollar currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to relative rates, global risk appetite, trade balances, and reserve-currency demand."

  - id: EURO
    name: Euro
    symbol: FXE
    tiingo_symbol: FXE
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: medium
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Euro currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to European rates, growth, fiscal policy, energy conditions, and US dollar movements."

  - id: YEN
    name: Japanese Yen
    symbol: FXY
    tiingo_symbol: FXY
    asset_class: currency
    category: currency
    option_group: currencies
    risk_bucket: high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Japanese yen currency exposure through an exchange-traded product. Sensitive to Japanese monetary policy, rate differentials, carry trades, and safe-haven demand."

  - id: BITCOIN_ETF
    name: Bitcoin ETF
    symbol: IBIT
    tiingo_symbol: IBIT
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Bitcoin exposure through a US-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, regulation, liquidity, rates, and risk appetite."

  - id: ETHEREUM_ETF
    name: Ethereum ETF
    symbol: ETHA
    tiingo_symbol: ETHA
    asset_class: crypto_proxy
    category: crypto_asset
    option_group: crypto_proxies
    risk_bucket: very_high
    currency: USD
    is_cash: false
    include_in_universe: true
    exposure_description: "Ethereum exposure through a US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded product. Sensitive to digital-asset flows, network activity, regulation, liquidity, and risk appetite."

Round Hashes hashes.json

{
  "algorithm": "sha256",
  "files": {
    "briefing.md": "d02a439ecb68ccb43fbcc2207dff682efb0c4d9c72048bdbd2f96a1f3d430e5b",
    "manifest.yaml": "8d88898cdf51893a95c73f66a4b90eced07fe91070fbf3c5c0ab009bf2af7306",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv": "7605b83022b18918fba99923217333f9d36991cf866af8347e7e377cd217e82f",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json": "aa80a9d11cd86dfdcc4b7426b4687748f023280b9be19f0da21b4c6054d19f47",
    "market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md": "f5e961d9b96ebcd8e524ea71d7922b4d5b3c40fdad0c8a71160bf77e5386c427",
    "options.yaml": "1003c5795615371c4808eb307b1057c658972e2e36b5522e72c894bc4ce0c729",
    "prompt.md": "0e5a222ebba001788946308d0e0b4c71b9e1bdc4f2882aad00ed1514ecaa5c5f"
  }
}

Per-Model Prompt Suffixes 6 model calls

Claude Fable 5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-fable-5
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Claude Opus 4.7

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-7
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Claude Opus 4.8

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- model_id: anthropic-claude-opus-4-8
- provider: anthropic
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Gemini 3.1 Pro

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- model_id: google-gemini-3-1-pro
- provider: google
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

GPT-5.5

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- model_id: openai-gpt-5-5
- provider: openai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Grok 4.3

For this specific call, return only JSON using exactly these identifiers:
- round_id: CB-2026-06-12-1M
- model_id: xai-grok-4-3
- provider: xai
- mode: closed_capability
- allowed portfolio option_id values: CASH, SHORT_TREASURY, SP500, TOTAL_US_MARKET, NASDAQ100, LARGE_GROWTH, LARGE_VALUE, MID_CAP, SMALL_CAP, SMALL_VALUE, DIVIDEND, LOW_VOL, MOMENTUM, TECHNOLOGY, COMMUNICATIONS, CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY, CONSUMER_STAPLES, HEALTHCARE, FINANCIALS, INDUSTRIALS, ENERGY, MATERIALS, UTILITIES, REAL_ESTATE, INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY, LONG_TREASURY, TIPS, INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT, HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT, AGGREGATE_BONDS, DEVELOPED_EX_US, EMERGING_MARKETS, EUROPE, JAPAN, CHINA, INDIA, GOLD, BROAD_COMMODITIES, SEMICONDUCTORS, SOFTWARE, BROAD_AI_TECH, AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS, CYBERSECURITY, SOLAR, METALS_MINING, EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500, BIOTECH, REGIONAL_BANKS, AEROSPACE_DEFENSE, CANADA, UNITED_KINGDOM, AUSTRALIA, SOUTH_KOREA, TAIWAN, BRAZIL, MEXICO, SOUTH_AFRICA, MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS, MUNICIPAL_BONDS, EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS, INTERNATIONAL_BONDS, SILVER, COPPER, AGRICULTURE, OIL, US_DOLLAR, EURO, YEN, BITCOIN_ETF, ETHEREUM_ETF

Parsed provider responses

Model Outputs

These are the validated JSON submissions used by CapitalBench. Raw provider response text remains excluded from the public site.

Anthropic

Claude Fable 5

anthropic-claude-fable-5

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 30% EWY 15% EWT 10% MTUM 20% XLE 25%

Confidence: 0.45
Run Type: official

Rationale

With the Fed on hold, robust ISM data, soft core CPI, and a strong AI/semiconductor cycle, tilt toward high-momentum tech/semi exposure (SMH, EWY, EWT, MTUM) while energy hedges the high-headline-inflation, $95-oil regime.

Momentum-led barbell: AI/semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan momentum plus energy as an inflation/oil hedge to beat SPY over one month.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - Strongest momentum theme (64.8% 6m) backed by AI capex cycle and strong manufacturing PMI; recent 7d pullback offers entry.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 15% - Powerful momentum (11.4% 30d, 114% 6m) tied to semiconductor cycle and domestic reform rally.
Taiwan Equities (EWT): 10% - Semiconductor supply-chain leverage with strong 30d momentum.
US Momentum Equities (MTUM): 20% - Broad momentum factor leading US factors (5.2% 30d, 25% 6m) in a trending market.
Energy Sector (XLE): 25% - WTI at $95 with strong oil momentum and sticky headline inflation; energy equities lag spot oil's 6m run, offering catch-up and inflation hedge.

Key Risks

Sharp factor rotation or AI/semiconductor de-rating reverses momentum exposures simultaneously
Hawkish FOMC surprise on June 17 hits high-beta growth and EM Asia
Oil price reversal from $95 drags energy allocation
Dollar strength (broad index at 120) pressures Korea/Taiwan returns
Concentrated correlation between SMH, EWY, EWT, and MTUM amplifies drawdowns

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.45,
  "cost_usd": 0.4764,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Sharp factor rotation or AI/semiconductor de-rating reverses momentum exposures simultaneously",
    "Hawkish FOMC surprise on June 17 hits high-beta growth and EM Asia",
    "Oil price reversal from $95 drags energy allocation",
    "Dollar strength (broad index at 120) pressures Korea/Taiwan returns",
    "Concentrated correlation between SMH, EWY, EWT, and MTUM amplifies drawdowns"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-fable-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strongest momentum theme (64.8% 6m) backed by AI capex cycle and strong manufacturing PMI; recent 7d pullback offers entry."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Powerful momentum (11.4% 30d, 114% 6m) tied to semiconductor cycle and domestic reform rally."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "TAIWAN",
      "rationale": "Semiconductor supply-chain leverage with strong 30d momentum."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "MOMENTUM",
      "rationale": "Broad momentum factor leading US factors (5.2% 30d, 25% 6m) in a trending market."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "WTI at $95 with strong oil momentum and sticky headline inflation; energy equities lag spot oil's 6m run, offering catch-up and inflation hedge."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "With the Fed on hold, robust ISM data, soft core CPI, and a strong AI/semiconductor cycle, tilt toward high-momentum tech/semi exposure (SMH, EWY, EWT, MTUM) while energy hedges the high-headline-inflation, $95-oil regime.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Momentum-led barbell: AI/semiconductor and Korea/Taiwan momentum plus energy as an inflation/oil hedge to beat SPY over one month.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-12-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "cost_usd": 0.4764,
    "input_tokens": 43605,
    "latency_seconds": 13.517976843053475,
    "output_tokens": 807,
    "total_tokens": 44412
  }
}

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.7

anthropic-claude-opus-4-7

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 30% ITA 20% XLV 20% RSP 20% BIL 10%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Tilt toward sectors with positive momentum and earnings tailwinds (semis, defense, healthcare) while diversifying with equal-weight S&P and a cash-like buffer ahead of the June FOMC and sticky inflation prints.

Balance AI/semi momentum and defensive cyclicals against macro risks from rising headline CPI, 4.55% 10Y yields, and FOMC uncertainty.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 30% - Strong momentum, AI capex tailwind, leading semis cycle continues.
Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 20% - Defensive cyclical with strong momentum, geopolitical tailwinds, low drawdown risk.
Healthcare Sector (XLV): 20% - Defensive sector with positive 30d momentum amid sticky inflation and softening sentiment.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 (RSP): 20% - Broadening rally beneficiary; less mega-cap concentration risk into FOMC.
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 10% - Yield buffer ~3.6% annualized with zero duration risk into hot CPI/FOMC.

Key Risks

Hawkish FOMC surprise on June 17 spikes yields and hits growth/semis
Sticky headline CPI (4.2% YoY) triggers risk-off and multiple compression
Semiconductor cycle pullback after large run, profit-taking in SMH
Healthcare policy headlines or weak biotech sentiment drag XLV

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "Hawkish FOMC surprise on June 17 spikes yields and hits growth/semis",
    "Sticky headline CPI (4.2% YoY) triggers risk-off and multiple compression",
    "Semiconductor cycle pullback after large run, profit-taking in SMH",
    "Healthcare policy headlines or weak biotech sentiment drag XLV"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-7",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strong momentum, AI capex tailwind, leading semis cycle continues."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "rationale": "Defensive cyclical with strong momentum, geopolitical tailwinds, low drawdown risk."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with positive 30d momentum amid sticky inflation and softening sentiment."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500",
      "rationale": "Broadening rally beneficiary; less mega-cap concentration risk into FOMC."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "rationale": "Yield buffer ~3.6% annualized with zero duration risk into hot CPI/FOMC."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Tilt toward sectors with positive momentum and earnings tailwinds (semis, defense, healthcare) while diversifying with equal-weight S&P and a cash-like buffer ahead of the June FOMC and sticky inflation prints.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Balance AI/semi momentum and defensive cyclicals against macro risks from rising headline CPI, 4.55% 10Y yields, and FOMC uncertainty.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-12-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 43614,
    "latency_seconds": 13.09259272692725,
    "output_tokens": 692,
    "total_tokens": 44306
  }
}

Anthropic

Claude Opus 4.8

anthropic-claude-opus-4-8

5 holdings Healthcare Sector (XLV)

XLV 25% ITA 20% SMH 20% SCHD 20% BIL 15%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Barbell of defensive sectors (healthcare, dividends, defense) with a semiconductor momentum sleeve and a T-bill buffer, designed to outperform SPY in a sticky-inflation, high-valuation, rate-elevated environment with an FOMC mid-window.

Tilt toward leadership and lower-rate-sensitivity sectors while trimming concentration risk in the cap-weighted index that just sold off 2.5% in 7 days.

Portfolio

Healthcare Sector (XLV): 25% - Defensive sector with strong recent momentum (+5.65% 30d), low valuation, and resilience amid sticky inflation/elevated rates.
Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 20% - Strong trend (+4.73% 30d), geopolitical tailwinds, and low rate sensitivity; durable orders support continuation.
Semiconductors (SMH): 20% - Leading momentum group (+8.59% 30d, +133% 1y) with AI capex tailwinds; high-beta growth engine.
US Dividend Equities (SCHD): 20% - Quality dividend tilt provides defensive ballast with positive momentum (+2.42% 30d) into a hawkish-leaning macro window.
Short-Term Treasury Bills (BIL): 15% - Positive carry cash-like buffer given rich 21x forward P/E, hot PPI/CPI YoY, and elevated 10Y at 4.55%.

Key Risks

FOMC June 17 surprise or hawkish dots could pressure rate-sensitive equities and lift yields further.
Semiconductors are high-beta and could reverse sharply if growth/AI sentiment cools.
Defensive tilt underperforms if a broad risk-on rally lifts cyclicals and mega-cap growth.
Sticky CPI/PPI YoY (4.2%/6.5%) and weak consumer sentiment could trigger a broader equity drawdown affecting all sleeves.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "FOMC June 17 surprise or hawkish dots could pressure rate-sensitive equities and lift yields further.",
    "Semiconductors are high-beta and could reverse sharply if growth/AI sentiment cools.",
    "Defensive tilt underperforms if a broad risk-on rally lifts cyclicals and mega-cap growth.",
    "Sticky CPI/PPI YoY (4.2%/6.5%) and weak consumer sentiment could trigger a broader equity drawdown affecting all sleeves."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "anthropic-claude-opus-4-8",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 25,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Defensive sector with strong recent momentum (+5.65% 30d), low valuation, and resilience amid sticky inflation/elevated rates."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "rationale": "Strong trend (+4.73% 30d), geopolitical tailwinds, and low rate sensitivity; durable orders support continuation."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Leading momentum group (+8.59% 30d, +133% 1y) with AI capex tailwinds; high-beta growth engine."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "DIVIDEND",
      "rationale": "Quality dividend tilt provides defensive ballast with positive momentum (+2.42% 30d) into a hawkish-leaning macro window."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "SHORT_TREASURY",
      "rationale": "Positive carry cash-like buffer given rich 21x forward P/E, hot PPI/CPI YoY, and elevated 10Y at 4.55%."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Barbell of defensive sectors (healthcare, dividends, defense) with a semiconductor momentum sleeve and a T-bill buffer, designed to outperform SPY in a sticky-inflation, high-valuation, rate-elevated environment with an FOMC mid-window.",
  "provider": "anthropic",
  "rationale_summary": "Tilt toward leadership and lower-rate-sensitivity sectors while trimming concentration risk in the cap-weighted index that just sold off 2.5% in 7 days.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-12-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 43609,
    "latency_seconds": 12.548267632024363,
    "output_tokens": 830,
    "total_tokens": 44439
  }
}

Google

Gemini 3.1 Pro

google-gemini-3-1-pro

3 holdings S&P 500 (SPY)

XLK 30% XLE 30% SPY 40%

Confidence: 0.70
Run Type: official

Rationale

This portfolio balances high-growth technology with inflation-resistant energy, anchored by broad market exposure.

Overweighting technology and energy to capture growth and commodity price tailwinds.

Portfolio

Technology Sector (XLK): 30% - Strong earnings growth estimates and momentum in the tech sector.
Energy Sector (XLE): 30% - High crude oil prices provide a tailwind for energy equities.
S&P 500 (SPY): 40% - Core broad market exposure to balance sector bets.

Key Risks

A sudden drop in oil prices could negatively impact the energy allocation.
Higher than expected inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy, hurting technology valuations.
Broader market downturn could drag down the S&P 500 core holding.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.7,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A sudden drop in oil prices could negatively impact the energy allocation.",
    "Higher than expected inflation could lead to tighter monetary policy, hurting technology valuations.",
    "Broader market downturn could drag down the S&P 500 core holding."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "google-gemini-3-1-pro",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "TECHNOLOGY",
      "rationale": "Strong earnings growth estimates and momentum in the tech sector."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "High crude oil prices provide a tailwind for energy equities."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 40,
      "option_id": "SP500",
      "rationale": "Core broad market exposure to balance sector bets."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "This portfolio balances high-growth technology with inflation-resistant energy, anchored by broad market exposure.",
  "provider": "google",
  "rationale_summary": "Overweighting technology and energy to capture growth and commodity price tailwinds.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-12-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 29239,
    "latency_seconds": 12.307870771968737,
    "output_tokens": 340,
    "reasoning_tokens": 962,
    "total_tokens": 30541
  }
}

OpenAI

GPT-5.5

openai-gpt-5-5

5 holdings Semiconductors (SMH)

SMH 35% CIBR 20% KRE 20% ITA 15% EWY 10%

Confidence: 0.56
Run Type: official

Rationale

The portfolio is concentrated in the areas with the strongest recent relative strength and plausible one-month continuation: semiconductors/AI-adjacent technology, cybersecurity, regional banks, aerospace-defense, and Korea’s chip-linked market. It accepts high volatility to maximize expected return versus the S&P 500 over a short scoring window.

Macro data show resilient growth and labor conditions with elevated inflation, making a Fed hold likely and supporting selective risk assets rather than duration. Recent momentum is strongest in semiconductors, cybersecurity, regional banks, aerospace-defense, and South Korea, so the allocation emphasizes those leadership pockets.

Portfolio

Semiconductors (SMH): 35% - Strongest structural and price momentum in the universe, with large AI-related exposure and a sharp 6-month/1-year leadership profile despite the recent one-week pullback.
Cybersecurity (CIBR): 20% - Best 30-day trailing return among thematic technology options, suggesting near-term relative strength that can persist over the one-month window.
Regional Banks (KRE): 20% - Recent outperformance, improving risk appetite, and a positively sloped 10-year/2-year curve support a short-window cyclical financial rebound.
Aerospace and Defense (ITA): 15% - Positive 7-day and 30-day momentum with less direct sensitivity to consumer weakness, supported by durable defense and aerospace demand themes.
South Korea Equities (EWY): 10% - Very strong 30-day and longer-term momentum, with semiconductor/export sensitivity that complements the AI and chip cycle exposure.

Key Risks

A hawkish FOMC statement or hotter-than-expected PCE data could lift yields and pressure high-valuation technology and semiconductor holdings.
Semiconductor and South Korea exposure could reverse sharply if AI/chip momentum unwinds or geopolitical risk in East Asia rises.
Regional banks could underperform if deposit stress, credit-quality concerns, or commercial real estate worries re-emerge.
The portfolio is highly concentrated in high-beta momentum areas, so a broad risk-off rotation into defensive sectors or cash-like assets would likely hurt relative performance.

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.56,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "A hawkish FOMC statement or hotter-than-expected PCE data could lift yields and pressure high-valuation technology and semiconductor holdings.",
    "Semiconductor and South Korea exposure could reverse sharply if AI/chip momentum unwinds or geopolitical risk in East Asia rises.",
    "Regional banks could underperform if deposit stress, credit-quality concerns, or commercial real estate worries re-emerge.",
    "The portfolio is highly concentrated in high-beta momentum areas, so a broad risk-off rotation into defensive sectors or cash-like assets would likely hurt relative performance."
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "openai-gpt-5-5",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "SEMICONDUCTORS",
      "rationale": "Strongest structural and price momentum in the universe, with large AI-related exposure and a sharp 6-month/1-year leadership profile despite the recent one-week pullback."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "CYBERSECURITY",
      "rationale": "Best 30-day trailing return among thematic technology options, suggesting near-term relative strength that can persist over the one-month window."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 20,
      "option_id": "REGIONAL_BANKS",
      "rationale": "Recent outperformance, improving risk appetite, and a positively sloped 10-year/2-year curve support a short-window cyclical financial rebound."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 15,
      "option_id": "AEROSPACE_DEFENSE",
      "rationale": "Positive 7-day and 30-day momentum with less direct sensitivity to consumer weakness, supported by durable defense and aerospace demand themes."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 10,
      "option_id": "SOUTH_KOREA",
      "rationale": "Very strong 30-day and longer-term momentum, with semiconductor/export sensitivity that complements the AI and chip cycle exposure."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "The portfolio is concentrated in the areas with the strongest recent relative strength and plausible one-month continuation: semiconductors/AI-adjacent technology, cybersecurity, regional banks, aerospace-defense, and Korea’s chip-linked market. It accepts high volatility to maximize expected return versus the S&P 500 over a short scoring window.",
  "provider": "openai",
  "rationale_summary": "Macro data show resilient growth and labor conditions with elevated inflation, making a Fed hold likely and supporting selective risk assets rather than duration. Recent momentum is strongest in semiconductors, cybersecurity, regional banks, aerospace-defense, and South Korea, so the allocation emphasizes those leadership pockets.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-12-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 26055,
    "latency_seconds": 20.16265406901948,
    "output_tokens": 745,
    "reasoning_tokens": 222,
    "total_tokens": 26800
  }
}

xAI

Grok 4.3

xai-grok-4-3

3 holdings Energy Sector (XLE)

XLE 35% XLF 30% XLV 35%

Confidence: 0.55
Run Type: official

Rationale

Allocation tilts toward energy for commodity price support, financials for rate environment, and healthcare for stability given sticky CPI and upcoming FOMC and PCE releases.

High oil prices, persistent inflation above 4% YoY, and scheduled policy events favor a concentrated mix of energy, financials, and healthcare over broad equity or bond exposure for the one-month window.

Portfolio

Energy Sector (XLE): 35% - WTI at $95 and Brent at $97 with upward momentum support sector returns over the window.
Financials Sector (XLF): 30% - Higher policy rates and stable money market assets favor bank and financial sector positioning.
Healthcare Sector (XLV): 35% - Recent 30-day outperformance and defensive characteristics amid elevated inflation and low GDP growth.

Key Risks

FOMC decision on June 17 surprises markets with unexpected policy shift
PCE release on June 25 shows further inflation acceleration pressuring multiples
Weaker-than-expected retail sales or GDP revisions reduce growth-sensitive holdings

Validated JSON

{
  "confidence": 0.55,
  "is_official_score": true,
  "key_risks": [
    "FOMC decision on June 17 surprises markets with unexpected policy shift",
    "PCE release on June 25 shows further inflation acceleration pressuring multiples",
    "Weaker-than-expected retail sales or GDP revisions reduce growth-sensitive holdings"
  ],
  "metadata": {},
  "mode": "closed_capability",
  "model_id": "xai-grok-4-3",
  "portfolio": [
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "ENERGY",
      "rationale": "WTI at $95 and Brent at $97 with upward momentum support sector returns over the window."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 30,
      "option_id": "FINANCIALS",
      "rationale": "Higher policy rates and stable money market assets favor bank and financial sector positioning."
    },
    {
      "allocation_pct": 35,
      "option_id": "HEALTHCARE",
      "rationale": "Recent 30-day outperformance and defensive characteristics amid elevated inflation and low GDP growth."
    }
  ],
  "portfolio_rationale": "Allocation tilts toward energy for commodity price support, financials for rate environment, and healthcare for stability given sticky CPI and upcoming FOMC and PCE releases.",
  "provider": "xai",
  "rationale_summary": "High oil prices, persistent inflation above 4% YoY, and scheduled policy events favor a concentrated mix of energy, financials, and healthcare over broad equity or bond exposure for the one-month window.",
  "replicate_count": 1,
  "replicate_index": 1,
  "round_id": "CB-2026-06-12-1M",
  "run_type": "official",
  "usage": {
    "input_tokens": 25889,
    "latency_seconds": 7.637208834988996,
    "output_tokens": 349,
    "reasoning_tokens": 525,
    "total_tokens": 26763
  }
}

Public model run

Model Portfolios

This round used the portfolio format. The weights below are the submitted model portfolios. Expand a row to inspect rationale and risk lists without crowding the main table.

Model	Provider	Portfolio	Confidence	Protocol
Claude Fable 5 anthropic-claude-fable-5	Anthropic	SMH30%EWY15%EWT10%MTUM20%XLE25%	0.45	Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.7 anthropic-claude-opus-4-7	Anthropic	SMH30%ITA20%XLV20%RSP20%BIL10%	0.55	Portfolio round
Claude Opus 4.8 anthropic-claude-opus-4-8	Anthropic	XLV25%ITA20%SMH20%SCHD20%BIL15%	0.55	Portfolio round
Gemini 3.1 Pro google-gemini-3-1-pro	Google	XLK30%XLE30%SPY40%	0.70	Portfolio round
GPT-5.5 openai-gpt-5-5	OpenAI	SMH35%CIBR20%KRE20%ITA15%EWY10%	0.56	Portfolio round
Grok 4.3 xai-grok-4-3	xAI	XLE35%XLF30%XLV35%	0.55	Portfolio round

Pricing

Starting Prices

Ending prices are intentionally absent until the round is complete.


AEROSPACE_DEFENSE	ITA	2026-06-11	236.04	tiingo_eod
AGGREGATE_BONDS	AGG	2026-06-11	98.88	tiingo_eod
AGRICULTURE	DBA	2026-06-11	26.3	tiingo_eod
AUSTRALIA	EWA	2026-06-11	28.96	tiingo_eod
AUTONOMOUS_ROBOTICS	ARKQ	2026-06-11	130.24	tiingo_eod
BIOTECH	XBI	2026-06-11	132.74	tiingo_eod
BITCOIN_ETF	IBIT	2026-06-11	36.05	tiingo_eod
BRAZIL	EWZ	2026-06-11	34.81	tiingo_eod
BROAD_AI_TECH	AIQ	2026-06-11	63.95	tiingo_eod
BROAD_COMMODITIES	PDBC	2026-06-11	17.24	tiingo_eod
CANADA	EWC	2026-06-11	58.49	tiingo_eod
CASH		2026-06-11	1	cash
CHINA	MCHI	2026-06-11	54.34	tiingo_eod
COMMUNICATIONS	XLC	2026-06-11	112.12	tiingo_eod
CONSUMER_DISCRETIONARY	XLY	2026-06-11	116.3	tiingo_eod
CONSUMER_STAPLES	XLP	2026-06-11	85.27	tiingo_eod
COPPER	CPER	2026-06-11	38.94	tiingo_eod
CYBERSECURITY	CIBR	2026-06-11	85.47	tiingo_eod
DEVELOPED_EX_US	VEA	2026-06-11	71.31	tiingo_eod
DIVIDEND	SCHD	2026-06-11	32.53	tiingo_eod
EMERGING_MARKET_BONDS	EMB	2026-06-11	96.27	tiingo_eod
EMERGING_MARKETS	VWO	2026-06-11	59.1	tiingo_eod
ENERGY	XLE	2026-06-11	57.12	tiingo_eod
EQUAL_WEIGHT_SP500	RSP	2026-06-11	209.75	tiingo_eod
ETHEREUM_ETF	ETHA	2026-06-11	12.7	tiingo_eod
EURO	FXE	2026-06-11	106.88	tiingo_eod
EUROPE	VGK	2026-06-11	89.46	tiingo_eod
FINANCIALS	XLF	2026-06-11	52.62	tiingo_eod
GOLD	IAU	2026-06-11	79.13	tiingo_eod
HEALTHCARE	XLV	2026-06-11	154.09	tiingo_eod
HIGH_YIELD_CREDIT	HYG	2026-06-11	79.94	tiingo_eod
INDIA	INDA	2026-06-11	47.79	tiingo_eod
INDUSTRIALS	XLI	2026-06-11	175.15	tiingo_eod
INTERMEDIATE_TREASURY	IEF	2026-06-11	94.34	tiingo_eod
INTERNATIONAL_BONDS	BNDX	2026-06-11	48.18	tiingo_eod
INVESTMENT_GRADE_CREDIT	LQD	2026-06-11	109.08	tiingo_eod
JAPAN	EWJ	2026-06-11	92.18	tiingo_eod
LARGE_GROWTH	IWF	2026-06-11	121.57	tiingo_eod
LARGE_VALUE	IWD	2026-06-11	239.78	tiingo_eod
LONG_TREASURY	TLT	2026-06-11	85.98	tiingo_eod
LOW_VOL	SPLV	2026-06-11	73.84	tiingo_eod
MATERIALS	XLB	2026-06-11	51.22	tiingo_eod
METALS_MINING	XME	2026-06-11	118.35	tiingo_eod
MEXICO	EWW	2026-06-11	77.34	tiingo_eod
MID_CAP	IJH	2026-06-11	75.5	tiingo_eod
MOMENTUM	MTUM	2026-06-11	319.01	tiingo_eod
MORTGAGE_BACKED_BONDS	MBB	2026-06-11	94.52	tiingo_eod
MUNICIPAL_BONDS	MUB	2026-06-11	107.06	tiingo_eod
NASDAQ100	QQQ	2026-06-11	717.12	tiingo_eod
OIL	USO	2026-06-11	128.83	tiingo_eod
REAL_ESTATE	XLRE	2026-06-11	44.92	tiingo_eod
REGIONAL_BANKS	KRE	2026-06-11	72.35	tiingo_eod
SEMICONDUCTORS	SMH	2026-06-11	609.45	tiingo_eod
SHORT_TREASURY	BIL	2026-06-11	91.48	tiingo_eod
SILVER	SLV	2026-06-11	60.82	tiingo_eod
SMALL_CAP	IWM	2026-06-11	290.41	tiingo_eod
SMALL_VALUE	IWN	2026-06-11	215.81	tiingo_eod
SOFTWARE	IGV	2026-06-11	90.92	tiingo_eod
SOLAR	TAN	2026-06-11	62.3	tiingo_eod
SOUTH_AFRICA	EZA	2026-06-11	66.28	tiingo_eod
SOUTH_KOREA	EWY	2026-06-11	198.94	tiingo_eod
SP500	SPY	2026-06-11	737.76	tiingo_eod
TAIWAN	EWT	2026-06-11	102.45	tiingo_eod
TECHNOLOGY	XLK	2026-06-11	183.21	tiingo_eod
TIPS	TIP	2026-06-11	109.6	tiingo_eod
TOTAL_US_MARKET	VTI	2026-06-11	364.3	tiingo_eod
UNITED_KINGDOM	EWU	2026-06-11	46.9	tiingo_eod
US_DOLLAR	UUP	2026-06-11	27.95	tiingo_eod
UTILITIES	XLU	2026-06-11	44.05	tiingo_eod
YEN	FXY	2026-06-11	57.43	tiingo_eod

Audit

Published Hashes

Round inputs are hashed before model calls and mirrored into the public read model.


briefing.md	d02a439ecb68...3d430e5b
manifest.yaml	8d88898cdf51...f2af7306
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.csv	7605b83022b1...d217e82f
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.json	aa80a9d11cd8...54d19f47
market_data/universe_trailing_returns.md	f5e961d9b96e...5386c427
options.yaml	1003c5795615...4ce0c729
prompt.md	0e5a222ebba0...ecaa5c5f