AI benchmark tape
Benchmark Live AI capital allocation same brief, frozen portfolios, real returns AI Positioning Balanced 59.9/100 As of July 2, 2026. Selective and balanced positioning Model Agreement Mixed 7.2 point dispersion Insight Live AI portfolios are concentrated in Healthcare Sector (XLV) Across the newest live weekly and monthly portfolios, Healthcare Sector (XLV) is the largest aggregate allocation at +26.67%. Crowded Position Semiconductors 16.3% 6 models hold SMH Biggest Shift US Low Volatility Equities up 14.2 pp vs prior weekly round Live MTM Claude Fable 5 -0.1% not final Latest Weekly Grok 4.3 led 1.9% vs S&P 2.2% Full Weekly History Claude Fable 5 leads score 19.3 across 3/21
Data Prices Jul 2 51/51 audited

Market Type Benchmark

Balanced By Market Type

This separate benchmark groups completed weekly and monthly rounds by how much the S&P 500 moved, then gives each ready market type equal weight.

Method

Each ready market type gets equal weight.

A market type is the S&P 500 move during a scored round. This page checks whether models perform across up, down, and flat markets instead of being helped by one dominant environment.

Ready rule
3+ rounds
Score
Average of ready market type scores
Scope
Resolved official rounds only
  1. 1 Use completed rounds Only resolved official results enter this page.
  2. 2 Group by S&P 500 move Each round becomes down, flat, or up.
  3. 3 Average ready types equally Ready market types carry the same weight.
Weekly rounds 21 More balanced
Monthly rounds 8 Still one-sided
Weekly ready types 3/5 Used in weekly score
Latest round CB-2026-06-26-1W Weekly 2026-07-02
Market coverage

What market types have been tested?

Counts update automatically as weekly and monthly rounds resolve.

Ready Included in score Forming Collecting rounds No data Not tested yet
Weekly

Weekly market types

3 market types are ready, including up and down markets.

More balanced

Weekly S&P 500 movement

Each point is one scored round. The S&P 500 move decides the market type.

Weekly S&P 500 movement Each point is one scored round. The S&P 500 move decides the market type. 0 S&P 500 return, 2026-05-29: +1.5% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-02: +1.2% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-04: +0.3% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-05: -2.5% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-05: -2.5% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-08: -2.5% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-09: -3.0% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-12: +0.6% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-15: +2.1% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-16: +1.8% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-18: +1.2% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-18: +0.7% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-22: -1.1% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-23: -2.0% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-24: -0.8% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-25: -1.7% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-29: -0.5% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-30: +1.8% S&P 500 return, 2026-07-01: +1.7% S&P 500 return, 2026-07-02: +1.4% S&P 500 return, 2026-07-02: +2.2%
S&P 500 return
Ready Included in score Sharp Down S&P <= -2.0%
4 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: -2.63%

Ready Included in score Down -2.0% to -0.5%
4 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: -1.39%

Forming Collecting rounds Flat -0.5% to +0.5%
2 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: -0.06%

Ready Included in score Up +0.5% to +2.0%
9 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: 1.32%

Forming Collecting rounds Sharp Up S&P >= +2.0%
2 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: 2.14%

Monthly

Monthly market types

1 market type ready; more market variety is needed.

Still one-sided

Monthly S&P 500 movement

Each point is one scored round. The S&P 500 move decides the market type.

Monthly S&P 500 movement Each point is one scored round. The S&P 500 move decides the market type. 0 S&P 500 return, 2026-06-10: -1.7% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-17: +0.2% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-24: -1.4% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-26: -3.1% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-29: -1.8% S&P 500 return, 2026-06-29: -1.8% S&P 500 return, 2026-07-01: -1.4% S&P 500 return, 2026-07-02: -1.7%
S&P 500 return
Forming Collecting rounds Sharp Down S&P <= -3.0%
1 round

Average S&P 500 move: -3.15%

Ready Included in score Down -3.0% to -1.0%
6 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: -1.63%

Forming Collecting rounds Flat -1.0% to +1.0%
1 round

Average S&P 500 move: 0.24%

No data yet Not tested yet Up +1.0% to +3.0%
0 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: n/a

No data yet Not tested yet Sharp Up S&P >= +3.0%
0 rounds

Average S&P 500 move: n/a

Market-type balanced leaderboard

Who performs best after balancing market types?

Ready market types are scored equally. Forming types stay visible, but do not affect rankings yet.

Weekly benchmark

Weekly market-type balanced scores

More balanced

Weekly top score path

Cumulative score movement for the current top market-type models.

Weekly top score path Cumulative score movement for the current top market-type models. 0 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-04: 77.4 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-05: -12.9 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-05: -50.1 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-08: -61.9 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-09: -80.9 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-12: -46.4 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-15: -32.1 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-16: -25.0 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-18: -23.0 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-18: -14.1 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-22: -10.5 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-23: -10.8 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-24: -11.0 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-25: -12.1 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-29: -12.5 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-30: -9.0 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-07-01: -6.8 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-07-02: -4.4 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-07-02: -3.6 Leader Grok 4.3, 2026-05-29: 28.2 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-02: 35.8 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-04: 39.1 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-05: 19.8 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-05: 5.3 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-08: -8.9 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-09: -26.4 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-12: -19.3 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-15: -16.3 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-16: -13.0 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-18: -12.8 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-18: -7.9 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-22: -5.3 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-23: -5.1 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-24: -4.4 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-25: -6.5 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-29: -7.7 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-30: -4.7 Grok 4.3, 2026-07-01: -3.3 Grok 4.3, 2026-07-02: -0.9 Grok 4.3, 2026-07-02: 0.2 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-05-29: 23.8 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-02: 32.8 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-04: 37.6 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-05: 19.0 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-05: 2.7 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-08: -11.5 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-09: -27.4 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-12: -19.6 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-15: -13.3 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-16: -11.1 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-18: -11.3 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-18: -6.5 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-22: -3.6 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-23: -4.3 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-24: -5.3 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-25: -7.1 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-29: -9.9 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-30: -6.9 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-07-01: -5.6 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-07-02: -3.5 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-07-02: -2.6 GPT-5.5, 2026-05-29: 38.9 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-02: 43.3 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-04: 44.9 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-05: 19.5 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-05: -5.3 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-08: -27.3 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-09: -47.3 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-12: -40.0 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-15: -32.9 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-16: -28.0 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-18: -23.0 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-18: -14.1 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-22: -9.5 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-23: -11.7 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-24: -11.9 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-25: -13.2 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-29: -15.2 GPT-5.5, 2026-06-30: -11.4 GPT-5.5, 2026-07-01: -9.7 GPT-5.5, 2026-07-02: -10.6 GPT-5.5, 2026-07-02: -9.5
Claude Opus 4.8Grok 4.3Claude Opus 4.7GPT-5.5
1
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
-39.7 3/3 ready types
2
Grok 4.3 xAI
-44.3 3/3 ready types
3
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic
-47.5 3/3 ready types
Model Market-type score Ready market type scores All-round score Avg alpha vs S&P Hit rate Status
1
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
-39.7 3/3 ready types
Sharp Down -130.0 Down -7.1 Up 17.8
-3.6 -0.12% 46.67% Ready
2
Grok 4.3 xAI
-44.3 3/3 ready types
Sharp Down -153.8 Down -2.0 Up 23.0
0.2 +0.18% 58.82% Ready
3
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic
-47.5 3/3 ready types
Sharp Down -153.8 Down -9.0 Up 20.3
-2.6 -0.10% 47.06% Ready
4
GPT-5.5 OpenAI
-71.8 3/3 ready types
Sharp Down -226.7 Down -10.5 Up 21.7
-9.5 -0.69% 35.29% Ready
5
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google
-77.6 3/3 ready types
Sharp Down -234.7 Down -14.3 Up 16.3
-12.9 -1.14% 35.29% Ready
6
Claude Fable 5 Anthropic
19.3 1/3 ready types
Sharp Down n/a Down n/a Up 19.3
19.3 +0.90% 66.67% Forming
Monthly benchmark

Monthly market-type balanced scores

Still one-sided

Monthly top score path

Cumulative score movement for the current top market-type models.

Monthly top score path Cumulative score movement for the current top market-type models. 0 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-10: 11.8 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-17: -4.5 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-24: 13.6 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-26: 11.4 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-29: 8.3 Grok 4.3, 2026-06-29: 6.5 Grok 4.3, 2026-07-01: 4.9 Grok 4.3, 2026-07-02: -1.2 Leader Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-10: 11.8 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-17: -7.6 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-24: 7.5 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-26: 3.3 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-29: -0.2 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-06-29: -0.1 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-07-01: -1.8 Claude Opus 4.7, 2026-07-02: -5.1 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-26: 0.7 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-29: -0.0 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-06-29: 2.9 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-07-01: -1.7 Claude Opus 4.8, 2026-07-02: -7.4 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-06-10: 11.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-06-17: -19.4 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-06-24: 2.6 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-06-26: 0.4 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-06-29: -6.6 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-06-29: -11.3 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-07-01: -10.8 Gemini 3.1 Pro, 2026-07-02: -14.8
Grok 4.3Claude Opus 4.7Claude Opus 4.8Gemini 3.1 Pro
1
Grok 4.3 xAI
-0.6 1/1 ready types
2
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic
-3.1 1/1 ready types
3
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
-9.0 1/1 ready types
Model Market-type score Ready market type scores All-round score Avg alpha vs S&P Hit rate Status
1
Grok 4.3 xAI
-0.6 1/1 ready types
Down -0.6
-1.2 +1.53% 83.33% Ready
2
Claude Opus 4.7 Anthropic
-3.1 1/1 ready types
Down -3.1
-5.1 +1.15% 66.67% Ready
3
Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic
-9.0 1/1 ready types
Down -9.0
-7.4 -0.00% 50.00% Ready
4
Gemini 3.1 Pro Google
-13.4 1/1 ready types
Down -13.4
-14.8 -0.49% 33.33% Ready
5
GPT-5.5 OpenAI
-15.0 1/1 ready types
Down -15.0
-18.5 -0.75% 50.00% Ready
Balanced sample benchmark

What happens when each market type has a fair sample?

This stricter benchmark waits for at least 3 down, 3 flat, and 3 up rounds. When ready, it compares the same number from each type.

Weekly balanced sample

Weekly down / flat / up benchmark

Needs 1 more flat weekly round.

Forming

Weekly sample balance progress

Shows how many down, flat, and up rounds are available.

Weekly sample balance progress Shows how many down, flat, and up rounds are available. 3 needed Down, 2026-05-29: 0 Down, 2026-06-02: 0 Down, 2026-06-04: 0 Down, 2026-06-05: 1 Down, 2026-06-05: 2 Down, 2026-06-08: 3 Down, 2026-06-09: 4 Down, 2026-06-12: 4 Down, 2026-06-15: 4 Down, 2026-06-16: 4 Down, 2026-06-18: 4 Down, 2026-06-18: 4 Down, 2026-06-22: 5 Down, 2026-06-23: 6 Down, 2026-06-24: 7 Down, 2026-06-25: 8 Down, 2026-06-29: 8 Down, 2026-06-30: 8 Down, 2026-07-01: 8 Down, 2026-07-02: 8 Down, 2026-07-02: 8 Flat, 2026-05-29: 0 Flat, 2026-06-02: 0 Flat, 2026-06-04: 1 Flat, 2026-06-05: 1 Flat, 2026-06-05: 1 Flat, 2026-06-08: 1 Flat, 2026-06-09: 1 Flat, 2026-06-12: 1 Flat, 2026-06-15: 1 Flat, 2026-06-16: 1 Flat, 2026-06-18: 1 Flat, 2026-06-18: 1 Flat, 2026-06-22: 1 Flat, 2026-06-23: 1 Flat, 2026-06-24: 1 Flat, 2026-06-25: 1 Flat, 2026-06-29: 2 Flat, 2026-06-30: 2 Flat, 2026-07-01: 2 Flat, 2026-07-02: 2 Flat, 2026-07-02: 2 Up, 2026-05-29: 1 Up, 2026-06-02: 2 Up, 2026-06-04: 2 Up, 2026-06-05: 2 Up, 2026-06-05: 2 Up, 2026-06-08: 2 Up, 2026-06-09: 2 Up, 2026-06-12: 3 Up, 2026-06-15: 4 Up, 2026-06-16: 5 Up, 2026-06-18: 6 Up, 2026-06-18: 7 Up, 2026-06-22: 7 Up, 2026-06-23: 7 Up, 2026-06-24: 7 Up, 2026-06-25: 7 Up, 2026-06-29: 7 Up, 2026-06-30: 8 Up, 2026-07-01: 9 Up, 2026-07-02: 10 Up, 2026-07-02: 11
DownFlatUp
Down 8/3 S&P < -0.5%

Requirement met.

Flat 2/3 -0.5% to +0.5%

1 more needed.

Up 11/3 S&P > +0.5%

Requirement met.

Not ranked yet

The weekly sample is still forming, so this benchmark is shown as a readiness check rather than a leaderboard.

Monthly balanced sample

Monthly down / flat / up benchmark

Needs 2 more flat monthly rounds and 3 more up monthly rounds.

Forming

Monthly sample balance progress

Shows how many down, flat, and up rounds are available.

Monthly sample balance progress Shows how many down, flat, and up rounds are available. 3 needed Down, 2026-06-10: 1 Down, 2026-06-17: 1 Down, 2026-06-24: 2 Down, 2026-06-26: 3 Down, 2026-06-29: 4 Down, 2026-06-29: 5 Down, 2026-07-01: 6 Down, 2026-07-02: 7 Flat, 2026-06-10: 0 Flat, 2026-06-17: 1 Flat, 2026-06-24: 1 Flat, 2026-06-26: 1 Flat, 2026-06-29: 1 Flat, 2026-06-29: 1 Flat, 2026-07-01: 1 Flat, 2026-07-02: 1 Up, 2026-06-10: 0 Up, 2026-06-17: 0 Up, 2026-06-24: 0 Up, 2026-06-26: 0 Up, 2026-06-29: 0 Up, 2026-06-29: 0 Up, 2026-07-01: 0 Up, 2026-07-02: 0
DownFlatUp
Down 7/3 S&P < -1.0%

Requirement met.

Flat 1/3 -1.0% to +1.0%

2 more needed.

Up 0/3 S&P > +1.0%

3 more needed.

Not ranked yet

The monthly sample is still forming, so this benchmark is shown as a readiness check rather than a leaderboard.

Audit table

Which rounds are included?

Showing the latest 10 resolved official rounds. Open the full audit for every included round.

Round Track Window S&P 500 return Market type Avg model alpha Hit rate Models
CB-2026-06-26-1W Weekly 2026-06-26 to 2026-07-02 +2.17% Sharp Up -0.78% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-25-1W Weekly 2026-06-25 to 2026-07-02 +1.43% Up -0.19% 60.00% 5
CB-2026-06-03-1M Monthly 2026-06-02 to 2026-07-02 -1.70% Down -5.10% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-24-1W Weekly 2026-06-24 to 2026-07-01 +1.71% Up -0.01% 40.00% 5
CB-2026-06-02-1M Monthly 2026-06-01 to 2026-07-01 -1.43% Down -1.17% 20.00% 5
CB-2026-06-23-1W Weekly 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-30 +1.80% Up +2.20% 100.00% 5
CB-2026-06-22-1W Weekly 2026-06-22 to 2026-06-29 -0.46% Flat -2.74% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-01-1M Monthly 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-29 -1.79% Down +0.85% 80.00% 5
CB-2026-05-29-1M Monthly 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-29 -1.79% Down -0.10% 60.00% 5
CB-2026-05-28-1M Monthly 2026-05-28 to 2026-06-26 -3.15% Sharp Down +2.95% 100.00% 5
View full audit table 29 rounds
Round Track Window S&P 500 return Market type Avg model alpha Hit rate Models
CB-2026-06-18-1W Weekly 2026-06-18 to 2026-06-25 -1.67% Down -1.06% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-17-1W Weekly 2026-06-17 to 2026-06-24 -0.79% Down -0.19% 20.00% 5
CB-2026-05-24-1M Monthly 2026-05-22 to 2026-06-24 -1.41% Down +6.61% 100.00% 4
CB-2026-06-16-1W Weekly 2026-06-16 to 2026-06-23 -1.98% Down +0.33% 60.00% 5
CB-2026-06-15-1W Weekly 2026-06-15 to 2026-06-22 -1.13% Down +3.82% 100.00% 5
CB-2026-06-13-1W Weekly 2026-06-12 to 2026-06-18 +0.67% Up +3.28% 100.00% 6
CB-2026-06-12-1W Weekly 2026-06-11 to 2026-06-18 +1.22% Up -0.86% 50.00% 6
CB-2026-05-17-1M Monthly 2026-05-15 to 2026-06-17 +0.24% Flat -4.68% 0.00% 4
CB-2026-06-09-1W Weekly 2026-06-09 to 2026-06-16 +1.80% Up -1.52% 0.00% 6
CB-2026-06-08-1W Weekly 2026-06-08 to 2026-06-15 +2.11% Sharp Up -2.23% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-05-1W Weekly 2026-06-05 to 2026-06-12 +0.57% Up -0.43% 60.00% 5
CB-2026-05-10-1M Monthly 2026-05-08 to 2026-06-10 -1.65% Down +2.42% 100.00% 4
CB-2026-06-03-1W Weekly 2026-06-02 to 2026-06-09 -2.96% Sharp Down -5.72% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-02-1W Weekly 2026-06-01 to 2026-06-08 -2.55% Sharp Down -4.29% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-06-01-1W Weekly 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-05 -2.50% Sharp Down -3.44% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-05-29-1W Weekly 2026-05-29 to 2026-06-05 -2.50% Sharp Down -2.86% 0.00% 5
CB-2026-05-28-1W Weekly 2026-05-28 to 2026-06-04 +0.33% Flat +2.77% 100.00% 5
CB-2026-05-27-1W Weekly 2026-05-26 to 2026-06-02 +1.20% Up +3.98% 100.00% 4
CB-2026-05-24-1W Weekly 2026-05-22 to 2026-05-29 +1.45% Up +2.22% 100.00% 4